民调显示特朗普加速全球干预引发美国民众担忧

我们计划与对手计划最重要的区别在于，我们的计划将美国置于首位。

The most important difference between our plan and that of our opponent is that our plan will put America first.

当唐纳德·特朗普在2016年首次竞选总统时，他承诺将重点放在国内事务上。

When Donald Trump first ran for president in 2016, he promised a focus on domestic issues.

我们将奉行美国主义，而非全球主义。

Americanism, not globalism, will be our credo.

他提出了美国外交政策的愿景，并誓言让美国远离全球冲突。

He offered a vision for American foreign policy, and he vowed to keep The US out of global conflicts.

我们必须放弃失败的国家建设和政权更迭政策。

We must abandon the failed policy of nation building and regime change.

但在他的第二个任期内，出现了转变。

But in his second administration, a shift.

特朗普已经推翻了委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗。

Trump has ousted Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro.

我们将继续管理国家，直到能够实现安全、妥善且审慎的权力交接。

We are going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition.

威胁伊朗，因其镇压最近的抗议活动。

Threatened Iran for its suppression of recent protests.

如果他们像过去那样开始杀人，我认为美国会给他们沉重打击。

If they start killing people like they have in the past, I think they're gonna get hit very hard by The United States.

某件事。

Something.

谈论吞并格陵兰。

Talked about annexing Greenland.

从国家安全战略的角度，我们需要格陵兰。

We need Greenland from a national security Strategic.

局势。

Situation.

这太关键了。

It's so strategic.

特朗普已对也门、叙利亚、尼日利亚的恐怖目标发动军事打击，同时威胁要吞并加拿大、夺回巴拿马运河等。

Trump has launched military strikes on terror targets in Yemen, Syria, Nigeria, while threatening to annex Canada, retake the Panama Canal, and more.

毫无疑问，在他的第二个任期内，唐纳德·特朗普完全无所顾忌，急于在全球范围内展示美国的影响力。

There's no question that in his second term, Donald Trump is entirely unbound, and he's eager to throw America's weight around in the world.

斯图尔特·帕特里克是卡内基国际和平基金会研究世界秩序与国际合作的专家。

Stuart Patrick is a specialist on world order and international cooperation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

他说，特朗普为了确保美国的主导地位，正在摒弃基于规则的国际秩序，这让美国人感到担忧。

He says Trump is waving aside rules based international order in his effort to ensure US dominance, and that's worrying Americans.

根据一项新的NPR伊普索民调，近一半的美国人表示华盛顿应避免干涉他国内政。

According to a new NPR Ipsos poll, nearly half of Americans say Washington should stay out of other countries' affairs.

尽管该民调还发现，美国人希望美国成为世界道德领袖，但真正认为美国是这样的人却少得多。

And while the poll also finds that Americans want The US to be a moral leader in the world, far fewer actually think it is.

请想想这一点。

Consider this.

在第二任期内，特朗普的外交政策正在深刻重塑全球地缘政治格局。

In his second term, Trump's foreign policy is dramatically reshaping the global geopolitical landscape.

那么，美国国内和国外的人们对此有何反应？

So how are people reacting inside The US and beyond?

来自NPR，我是玛丽·路易丝·凯利。

From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

这条信息来自Wise，一款专为全球使用资金的国际人士设计的应用。

This message comes from Wise, the app for international people using money around the globe.

您只需轻点几下，即可发送、消费和接收多达40种货币。

You can send, spend, and receive in up to 40 currencies with only a few simple taps.

聪明一点。

Be smart.

使用Wise。

Get Wise.

立即下载Wise应用或访问wise.com。

Download the Wise app today or visit wise.com.

条款和条件适用。

Ts and cs apply.

本周，在NPR政治播客中，新年刚刚开始一周多，就有大量内容需要梳理和理解。

This week on the NPR politics podcast, barely more than a week into the new year, there's plenty to break down and try to understand.

在委内瑞拉及更广泛的地区，人们对美国在全球舞台上的角色变化提出了疑问。

In Venezuela and beyond, questions about the changing role of America on the world stage.

而在明尼苏达州，发生了一起致命的冰上枪击事件。

And in Minnesota, a deadly ice shooting.

每天收听NPR政治播客，获取事实、观点与深度分析。

Follow us each day for facts, perspective, and analysis on the NPR Politics Podcast.

在NPR应用或您收听播客的任何平台收听。

Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get podcasts.

想在2026年变得更强壮吗？

Wanna get strong in 2026?

事实证明，你不需要每周在健身房花上数小时。

Turns out you don't need to spend hours at the gym every week.

即使每周只进行一次30到45分钟的训练，每个动作做一到两组，也相当有效。

Even just one session thirty to forty five minutes a week doing about one or two sets per exercise, that can be quite effective.

如何开始力量训练？

How to get started with strength training?

本周来自《生活小孩》播客。

This week on the Life Kid Podcast.

请在NPR应用或您收听播客的任何平台收听。

Listen in the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

这是来自NPR的报道。

It's considered this from NPR.

特朗普总统告诉《纽约时报》，只有一件事能阻止他在全球舞台上的行动，这引起了人们的关注。

President Trump raised eyebrows when he told the New York Times there was only one thing that could stop him on the global stage.

嗯。

Yeah.

只有一件事，那就是我自己的道德和我的内心。

There's one thing, my own morality, my own mind.

那么，美国人如何看待美国的道德地位呢？

So what do Americans think about the moral standing of The United States?

嗯，今天发布的一项新的NPR-Ipsos民调发现，美国人仍然希望美国成为世界上的道德领袖，但认为美国实际上具备这一地位的人却少得多。

Well, a new NPR Ipsos poll released today finds Americans still want The US to be a moral leader in the world, but far fewer think it actually is.

为了理解这一结果的含义，并了解美国人在此次民调中告诉我们的其他内容，我邀请了NPR资深政治编辑兼记者多梅尼科·蒙塔纳罗。

To make sense of what that means and hear what else Americans told us in this poll, I am joined by NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.

你好。

Hi there.

嘿。

Hey.

很高兴能和你一起参与。

Great to be with you.

以及资深国际事务记者杰姬·诺瑟姆。

And senior international affairs correspondent Jackie Northam.

嘿，杰姬。

Hey, Jackie.

嗨，玛丽·路易丝。

Hi, Mary Louise.

多梅尼科，能为我们梳理一下这项民调的关键发现吗？

Domenico, just walk us through key findings of this poll.

我们学到了什么？

What we learned?

我们应该说，这项调查是在美国对委内瑞拉采取军事行动之前进行的，但它更多地反映了美国人对外交政策的总体情绪，并显示出与近十年前类似调查相比的显著变化。

Well, the survey, we should say, was conducted before The US military action in Venezuela, but it is more about Americans' broader sentiment on foreign policy, and it shows some really notable shifts from a similar survey conducted nearly a decade ago.

关于你提到的道德领导力问题，61%的人认为美国应该成为世界的道德领袖，但只有39%的人认为美国实际上做到了。

On the question of moral leadership like you were talking about, 61% say The US should be the world's moral leader, but only 39% think that it actually is.

这一比例相比2017年的60%大幅下降。

And that's down sharply from 60% in 2017.

还有一个值得注意的矛盾点，让我在共和党人对委内瑞拉的看法中尤为突出。

One more point, there's a seeming contradiction that stood out to me among Republicans thinking about Venezuela here.

三分之二的共和党人表示，美国不应犹豫使用武力，但56%的人认为美国应避免干涉他国内政。

Two thirds of them say that The US should not hesitate to use military force, but 56% say that The US should stay out of the affairs of other countries.

这对特朗普未来在委内瑞拉问题上的立场是一个警示信号。

So it's a warning sign for Trump going forward on Venezuela.

他的政党基层成员似乎对军事行动持接受态度，但可能并不支持长期主导他国事务。

His party's rank and file are seemingly fine with military action, might not be okay with running the country long term.

哦，与十年前相比，确实有一些非常有趣的转变。

Oh, some really interesting shifts from a decade ago.

好的。

Okay.

这就是美国人如何看待这个时刻的。

That's how Americans view this moment.

杰基，其他人怎么看呢？

Jackie, what about everyone else?

世界如何看待美国对委内瑞拉的介入呢？

How is the world looking at, say, America's involvement in Venezuela?

我与英国、法国和印度的几位分析人士进行了交谈，想了解外界对委内瑞拉行动的看法。

Well, I talked to a number of analysts in The UK, France, and in India just to get a sense of how the Venezuela operation was being viewed.

你知道，许多政府的反应都很低调，部分原因是领导人不想惹恼特朗普。

And, you know, there was muted reactions from a a lot of governments in part because leaders don't want to annoy Trump.

但许多国家的民众非常担忧，不仅因为对国际法的不尊重，更广泛的问题是，这种行为会到哪里为止？

But people in many countries are very worried, not only about the disrespect for international law, but more broadly is where does this stop?

特朗普甚至谈论通过武力获取格陵兰，当然还包括古巴、哥伦比亚和墨西哥。

Trump is talking about acquiring Greenland even by force, certainly in Cuba, Colombia, Mexico.

我与巴黎《世界报》的外交事务专栏作家西尔维·考夫曼进行了交谈。

I spoke with Sylvie Kaufman, and she's a foreign affairs columnist at Le Monde in Paris.

她说，这确实是人们真正担忧的问题。

And she said that's a real concern for people.

当你在收音机里听到人们谈论这个话题时，能感受到强烈的情绪。

There's quite a lot of emotion about this when you hear people on the radio.

他们感到担忧。

They are worried.

他们说，但接下来会发生什么？

They say, but what is next?

你知道的？

You know?

他们真的能入侵格陵兰吗？

Can they really invade Greenland?

会发生什么？

What will happen?

我们该怎么办？

What should we do?

我们会派兵去那里吗？

Are we going to send troops there?

当然，玛丽·路易丝的盟友们也在担心，如果格陵兰真的发生什么事，美国与北约等联盟的关系能否维持下去。

And, of course, Mary Louise's allies are wondering if relations, with The US, you know, alliances such as NATO, will hold up if something does happen in Greenland.

杰基，再多说说这一点。

Say more about that, Jackie.

除了格陵兰和委内瑞拉，盟友们如何应对与美国的关系。

Beyond Greenland, beyond Venezuela, how how allies are trying to navigate relations with The US.

这确实是个巨大的挑战。

It's a real challenge.

自从第一任期以来，一直如此。

It it has throughout, you know, this first term.

看起来，如果一个国家做了特朗普不喜欢的事情，他就会采取报复措施，比如提高关税或实施制裁。

It seems if a country does something Trump doesn't like, he'll retaliate, like, with increased tariffs or sanctions.

我采访了德里政策研究中心的高级研究员普拉帕·梅赫塔。

I spoke with Pratap Mehta, and he's a senior fellow at the Center for Policy Research in Delhi.

他说，在特朗普第二任期之初，许多领导人认为这些行动只是出于交易性质。

And he says at the beginning of Trump's second term, a lot of leaders thought this action was simply transactional.

他追求的是资源或金钱。

He's after resources or money.

但梅赫塔表示，一年后，他们发现推动特朗普行动的还有其他因素。

But Mehta says a year on, they see there's something else driving Trump's actions.

令人惊讶的是，他似乎真的相信，美国与世界关系出现问题的部分原因，在于美国此前没有正确运用其权力。

It's actually quite remarkable how much he seems to believe that part of the problem with America's relations with the world is that America had actually not exercised its power correctly.

这非常不寻常，我认为世界其他地区正开始意识到这一点。

Quite extraordinary, and I think the rest of the world is beginning to see that.

梅赫塔说，这导致了对美国信任的严重削弱。

And that's led to a real erosion of trust in The US, Mehta says.

事实上，我采访的两个人用了‘敌人’这个词。

You know, in fact, two of the people I talked with used the term enemy.

是的。

Yeah.

听到人们使用‘敌人’这个词，真的令人惊讶。

It's really remarkable to hear, you know, people using the term enemy.

你知道，在这项调查中，有一半的人认为美国在全球的影响力已经下降，而57%的人认为中国——也被视为科技发展的领导者——则增强了影响力。

You know, domestically, half say that The US has lost influence worldwide in this survey, while 57% say China, who's also seen as the leader in technological development, has gained it.

多梅尼科，关于这一点，我们是否知道有多少是特指特朗普总统的？

Domenico, on that, do we know how much is specific to president Trump?

有多少是反映在这个高度两极分化的时刻，人们通过党派视角来看待问题？

How much this reflects things being viewed through the, partisan lens in this very partisan moment?

是的。

Yeah.

确实非常多。

Really a lot.

我的意思是，当你仔细看这些数据时，近四分之三的民主党人和十分之六的独立选民认为美国在全球的影响力下降了，而只有四分之一的共和党人持同样看法。

I mean, when you look inside those numbers, almost three quarters of Democrats and six and ten independents think The US has lost influence around the world compared to just a quarter of Republicans who think so too.

就像美国社会中的许多事情一样，无论是经济还是我们现在讨论的外交政策，一切都通过特朗普这个视角来看待。

Just like with so many things in US society, things are viewed through this lens of Trump, whether it's the economy or here we're talking about foreign policy.

我们在这项调查中看到，这种现象体现在方方面面，包括军事干预、美国的道德声望、美国是否应向其他国家提供人道主义援助、是否应优先考虑民主与人权，以及再次涉及委内瑞拉的问题，还有外交政策是否应以让美国和美国人致富为中心。

And we see that show up in this survey on everything from military intervention, American moral standing, whether The US should give humanitarian aid to other countries, whether The US should prioritize democracy and human rights, or thinking about Venezuela again, whether foreign policy should focus on enriching America and Americans.

是的。

Yeah.

继续谈谈你刚才提到的民主与人权问题，以及美国外交政策是否应优先考虑这些，而非让美国人致富。

Stay with the what you just raised about democracy and human rights and whether American foreign policy should focus on prioritizing that versus enriching Americans.

调查结果怎么说？

What does the survey say?

关于外交政策是否应以富国富民为中心，三分之二的共和党人表示支持，而只有29%的民主党人和不到一半的独立选民持此观点。

Well, on whether foreign policy should focus on enriching the country, two thirds of Republicans say it should compared to just 29% of Democrats and less than half of independents who said that.

促进民主与人权现在对民主党来说更重要了，而特朗普似乎与共和党过去谈论国际干预的方式有很大不同。

Promoting democracy and human rights are more of a priority again for Democrats Democrats now, and that's something Trump seems to have shifted quite a bit from the way the GOP used to talk about international intervention.

嗯。

Yeah.

你知道，

You know,

就在不久之前，共和党人还在谈论美国有必要传播民主、遏制共产主义，宣扬自由和选举。

it's not that long ago that Republicans were talking about the need for The US to spread democracy and counter communism, to tout freedoms and voting.

但在这项调查中，只有16%的共和党人认为这些应该是优先事项，而大多数民主党人则持此观点。

But in this survey, only 16% of Republicans say that those things should be the priorities compared to a majority of Democrats.

对共和党人来说，这要更加交易化。

Instead, it's way more transactional for Republicans.

真有意思。

Just fascinating.

好的。

Okay.

所以有个大问题。

So big picture question.

我来请你们两位都谈谈。

I'll throw it to both of you.

我们该如何思考美国外交政策未来的走向？

How should we think about where US foreign policy may go from here?

多梅尼科，你先说。

Domenico, you first.

看起来局势非常不稳定。

Seems very much in flux.

你知道，特朗普已经颠覆了二战后的世界秩序。

You know, we've seen Trump upend the post World War two world order.

他正朝着一种更注重区域和半球实力的方向迈进，这种理念其实可以追溯到殖民时代。

He's moving towards something that is more about regional and hemispheric strength, an idea that really dates back to colonialism.

他成功地说服了他的支持者，认为这是正确的方向，部分原因是美国人对外交政策的关注度不如对经济等投票议题那么高。

And he's been able to convince his base that this is the way to go in part because Americans don't care as much about foreign policy compared to say the economy as a voting issue.

例如，这项调查发现，61%的人表示他们至少相当关注国内政治，而同样关注国际事务的人只有43%。

This survey, for example, found 61% say that they follow domestic politics at least fairly closely compared to just 43% who say the same of international affairs.

因此，在委内瑞拉这样的事件之后，对国内受众的沟通至关重要，因为特朗普的选民群体确实容易被说服。

So after events like Venezuela, the messaging to a domestic audience is so key because certainly Trump's base is convincible.

那杰基呢？

And Jackie?

特朗普显然正在运用武力来推进美国的国家安全利益，并且在看似成功的委内瑞拉军事行动后，他可能感到相当自信。

Trump certainly is embracing force to advance US national security interests and likely feels pretty confident after what appears to be a successful military operation in Venezuela.

但我与迈克尔·考克斯交谈过，他是伦敦政治经济学院的国际关系教授，他说特朗普可能过于自信了。

But, you know, I spoke with Michael Cox, and he's a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, and he says Trump could be too confident.

在我看来，现在存在一种古典的傲慢过度扩张的危险，用古老的希腊词汇来说，这不会对任何人有好处。

There's a danger now, it seems to me, of the classical overreach of hubris, to use the old fantastic Greek word, and and that's not gonna do anybody any good.

因此，这成为一个相当危险的时刻。

It it therefore becomes a rather dangerous moment.

玛丽·路易丝·考克斯说，特朗普的任何野心都不是必然的。

You know, Mary Louise Cox says none of Trump's ambitions are a given.

你知道，有许多因素，包括国内问题，都可能削弱特朗普的行动。

You know, there are many things, including domestic problems, that could undermine Trump's actions.

NPR的杰姬·诺瑟姆和多梅尼科·蒙塔纳罗。

NPR's Jackie Northam and Domenico Montanaro.

感谢你们两位。

Thanks to you both.

不客气。

You're welcome.

非常感谢。

Thank you very much.

如需了解更多关于NPR对世界秩序变迁的报道，可在搜索引擎中搜索“世界重组”。

And for more on NPR's coverage of the changing world order, you can put world reordering in your search engine.

本集由凯·麦克纳米制作，音频工程由泰德·米班完成。

This episode was produced by Kai McNamee with audio engineering by Ted Meebane.

本集由文森特·尼、尼克·斯派瑟和莎拉·汉德尔编辑。

It was edited by Vincent Nie, Nick Spicer, and Sarah Handel.

我们的执行制片人是萨米·耶尼根。

Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan.

感谢我们的《Consider This Plus》听众，你们支持NPR记者的工作，帮助维持公共广播的活力。

And a thank you to our Consider This Plus listeners who support the work of NPR journalists and help keep public radio strong.

支持者还能在没有赞助商广告的情况下收听每一集，并解锁《Consider This》的独家附加剧集。

Supporters also hear every episode without messages from sponsors and unlock bonus episodes of Consider This.

了解更多请访问 +.npr.org。

You can learn more at +.npr.org.

这是来自NPR的《Consider This》。

It's consider this from NPR.

我是玛丽·路易丝·凯利。

I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

你是否在考虑为新的一年做些改变？

Are you thinking about making any changes in the new year?

《Life Kit》播客来帮您了。

The Life Kit podcast is here to help.

在每一集中，我们都会提供经过研究验证的策略和专家建议，涵盖从备餐、改善人际关系到偿还信用卡债务等方方面面。

In each episode, we have research backed strategies and expert advice on everything from meal prep to strengthening relationships to paying down your credit card debt.

让您的新年决心坚持下去。

Make your resolutions stick.

在NPR应用程式或您收听播客的任何平台收听《Life Kit》播客。

Listen to the Life Kit podcast on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

基因组学先驱罗伯特·格林表示，许多父母希望为健康的新生儿进行DNA筛查，以检测可能在日后才显现的疾病。

Genomics pioneer Robert Green says many parents want their healthy newborns' DNA screened for diseases that may or may not show up later in life.

有一种观点认为，知识就是力量，许多家庭希望了解一切信息，无论是否可治疗。

There is an argument that knowledge is power, and many families would like to know everything, whether it's treatable or not.

关于揭示婴儿DNA秘密的争论。

The debate over revealing the secrets in babies' DNA.

在NPR应用程式或您收听播客的任何平台收听《TED Radio Hour》。

Listen to the TED Radio Hour on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.