对伊朗一场“令人振奋”的抗议轮次的反思

优素福·亚兹迪是约翰斯·霍普金斯大学的生物医学工程教授。

Youssef Yazdi is a professor of biomedical engineering at Johns Hopkins University.

他也是伊朗父母的儿子。

He is also the son of Iranian parents.

假期期间，他去德黑兰探望母亲。

Over the holidays, he went to visit his mother in Tehran.

在我母亲家所在的街区，有一个大广场和一大群人。

In the neighborhood where my mother's house is, there is a large square there and a large group.

他向NPR的史蒂夫·恩斯基普讲述了他经历的事情。

He was telling NPR's Steve Enskeep about his experience.

大约有两三百名年轻人，主要是年轻人，还有一些像我这样的年长者，但大多是年轻人。

There was about two, three hundred young people mainly, a few older folks like me and then mostly younger people.

他们非常和平，主要喊着口号，比如‘独裁者去死’。

And they're very peaceful, chanting slogans, mostly, you know, death to the dictator.

他估计，只有大约五个人更积极地带头喊口号。

A few people, maybe five, he estimates, were more active in leading the chants.

他们从人行道上撬起一些地砖，开始朝防暴警察投掷，随后防暴警察用催泪瓦斯回应。

And they pulled some pavers up from the sidewalk and started throwing him at the riot police, and then the riot police responded with tear gas.

此时，优素福·亚兹迪称自己犯了一个错误。

At this point, Youssef Yazdi made what he called a mistake.

我犯了个错误，用嘴巴呼吸了——你们年轻人记住，如果遭遇催泪瓦斯袭击，绝对不要用嘴巴呼吸，因为你的喉咙会疼痛好几天。

I made the mistake of breathing a bit through my mouth, which you kids, lesson learned, never breathe through your mouth if you're experiencing tear gas attack because your throat will burn for days.

现在喉咙还是有点发炎。

It's still kinda irritated.

这发生在当前抗议浪潮的初期。

This was early in the current wave of protests.

最初针对经济危机的示威，已演变为伊朗全国各地城市和城镇中更广泛的反政府运动。

What began as demonstrations against the economic crisis have become a broader anti government movement in cities and towns across Iran.

你知道，我觉得这像是一个失去动力的政府。

You know, I I it seemed like a government that has run out of steam.

我找不到任何一个人，无论支持还是反对政府，对当前的治理方式有半句好话。

I couldn't find anybody that has anything nice to say about the way things are being run, whether they're pro government or anti government.

伊朗的专制政府回应的不仅仅是催泪瓦斯和警棍。

Iran's authoritarian government has responded with more than tear gas and batons.

已有超过2500人丧生。

More than 2,500 people have been killed.

这一数字据美国基于的人权活动家新闻机构称。

That's according to The US based human rights activist news agency.

美国国家公共电台（NPR）尚未能独立核实这一数字。

NPR has not been able to independently verify that number.

美国一直在权衡军事回应。

The US has been weighing military responses.

据一位无权公开讲话的美国官员称，一些美国军事人员现已确认离开卡塔尔的一个空军基地，这可能是即将采取行动的迹象。

According to a US official not authorized to speak publicly, some American military personnel are now confirmed to be leaving an airbase in Qatar, a possible indication of imminent action.

关注她的人们正紧张但略带乐观地关注着像《华盛顿邮报》记者贾森·雷扎扬这样的人。

Those who watch her on are watching nervously, if somewhat optimistically, people like Washington Post journalist Jason Rezaian.

我担心，在政权垮台之前，会有更多人受伤和丧生。

I fear that many more people will be hurt and killed in in between now and whenever the regime does fall.

请想一想。

Consider this.

伊朗当前的抗议活动感觉不同。

The current round of protests in Iran feels different.

它们能带来真实而持久的改变吗？

Could they lead to real and lasting change?

来自NPR，我是胡安娜·萨默斯。

From NPR, I'm Juana Summers.

本周《早间新闻》节目，从明尼阿波利斯到委内瑞拉，再到美联储。

This week on Up First, from Minneapolis to Venezuela to the Federal Reserve.

今年迄今为止最重要的新闻之一，是特朗普政府如何运用总统权力。

One of the biggest stories of the year so far is how the Trump administration is using presidential power.

我们追踪每一个角度，让你每天早上都知道《早间新闻》上正在发生什么、什么是真的、什么不是真的。

We're following every angle, so you start each day knowing what's happening, what's true, and what isn't on Up First.

请在NPR应用程式或您收听播客的平台收听。

Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

这是来自NPR的‘请思考’。

It's consider this from NPR.

每当伊朗有重大新闻时，我们通常会联系贾森·鲁赞。

When there's big news from Iran, we often reach out to Jason Ruzain.

他曾在2014年担任《华盛顿邮报》驻德黑兰记者，当时被伊朗政府监禁，后在核协议谈判期间获释。

He was the Washington Post correspondent in Tehran in 2014 when he was imprisoned by the Iranian government and later released during the nuclear deal negotiations.

他现在是《华盛顿邮报》新闻自由倡议项目的负责人，本周他的专栏文章标题为《我已为伊朗这一激动人心的时刻等待了十年》。

He's now the director of press freedom initiatives at the Washington Post, and his op ed this week is titled, I've waited for this electrifying moment in Iran for ten years.

贾森·鲁赞，欢迎再次做客我们的节目。

Jason Ruzain, welcome back to the program.

谢谢你邀请我，沃伦。

Thanks for having me, Warren.

我想从这一点开始。

I wanna start with this.

你写道，自2016年离开伊朗以来，你第一次允许自己怀抱希望，相信总有一天能重返故土。

You've written that for the first time since leaving Iran in 2016, you're now allowing yourself to feel hope that one day you might return.

告诉我们，与你过去见过的抗议时刻相比，现在有什么不同。

Tell us what feels different about this moment from moments of protest that you've seen in the past.

我认为，胡安娜，我们看到的是伊朗抗议运动的节奏正在加快。

I think what we see, Juana, is that the velocity between protest movements in Iran is quickening.

如果你回想2009年穆罕默德·艾哈迈迪-内贾德有争议的连任后出现的绿色运动，接着在2017、2018、2019年又出现了更多局限于地区、由经济不满引发的抗议。

If you think back to 2009 and the green movement that followed the contested reelection of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Then there were protests in twenty seventeen, eighteen, nineteen that were much more regional in scope around economic discontent.

然后在2022年，出现了‘女性、生命、自由’运动，这可以说是伊朗历史上规模最大的抗议运动。

Then in 2022, the woman life freedom movement that was arguably the biggest protest movement in Iran.

到目前为止，所有人都在支持这一基本诉求：我们希望拥有一个更自由、更开放的社会，人民的权利得到保护和保障。

To date, everyone was supporting each other in this very basic demand that we want a freer, more open society where people's rights are protected and guaranteed.

同时，我们也希望拥有更好的经济前景。

And at the same time, we want a better financial future.

我认为，政权一直无法应对这些明确的诉求。

And I think the regime has not been able to respond to those very clear demands.

他们根本没有应对这些诉求的计划。

They don't have a plan to do so.

而此时此刻，这个近五十年的体制似乎即将到期。

And at this point in time, it seems like the expiration date of this nearly fifty year old system is quickly approaching.

我想问你，杰森，从历史角度看，美国在思考伊朗变革时，错在哪里？

I wanna ask you, Jason, historically, as you see it, where has The US gone wrong when it thinks about change in Iran?

我认为我们在很多方面都搞错了。

I think we've we've gotten it wrong for a lot of different reasons.

但其中一个原因是，我们很少兑现我们承诺过的事情。

But one of them is that we've rarely followed through on the things that we have promised to do.

我们现在大量谈论互联网断网和封锁。

We talk a lot right now about the Internet shutdown and blackout.

但这不仅仅是互联网的问题。

And it's not just the Internet.

甚至包括固定电话。

It's even, you know, landline telephones.

自一周前的今天起，我们就无法与伊朗境内的任何人取得联系了。

And we haven't been able to communicate with anybody inside Iran since a week ago today.

伊朗人应该能够访问互联网。

Iranians should be able to access the Internet.

而且有办法让人们保持在线。

And there are ways to keep people online.

对吧？

Right?

国会需要就此进行投票。

Congress needs to vote on that.

白宫需要就此发布行政命令。

White House needs to put in an executive order around it.

同时，也要找到与伊朗民间社会的联系点。

And also, finding touch points with Iranian civil society.

事实上，华盛顿或其他全球首都中，很少有人拥有近期在伊朗的实地经验。

The truth is that there are very few people in Washington or other global capitals that have relevant recent experience inside of Iran.

但有很多流亡海外的异议人士，或者仍留在伊朗境内并愿意表达立场的人。

And there are quite a lot of dissidents who have either left Iran in recent years or are still on the ground and willing to communicate their positions.

我们应该依靠他们，更好地了解伊朗国内的动态，以及我们如何才能提供最有帮助的支持。

We should be leaning on them to better understand the dynamics inside the country and how we can be most supportive.

是的。

Yeah.

我想就此再深入探讨一下。

I wanna push on that a little bit.

我的意思是，我听过你的观点，你在文章中也提出过：美国需要停止倾听华盛顿的那些相同声音，转而与伊朗国内的人士建立联系。

I mean, I I've heard you made the argument and you make it in your piece as well that The US needs to stop listening to the same voices in Washington and begin to build bridges with people inside Iran.

如果现在你希望美国政策制定者在思维上发生一个转变，那会是什么？

If there is one shift in thinking you would like to see from US policymakers right now, what would that be?

我一直以来都是坚定支持接触与对话的人。

I have always been somebody who's incredibly pro engagement.

我不认为外交是一种软弱。

I don't think of diplomacy as a weakness.

我认为外交是一种力量，尤其是当你拥有美国那样的全球影响力和实力时。

I think of it as a strength, especially when you wield the type of firepower and influence in the world that The United States does.

我认为与我们的对手对话非常重要。

And I I I think talking to our adversaries is very important.

这并不意味着屈从于他们的要求或向他们妥协。

That doesn't mean acquiescing to their demands or giving in to them.

我认为，尤其是在核计划问题上，目前与伊朗政权接触将是一个错误。

And I think, you know, engagement with the Iranian regime right now, especially around the nuclear program, would be a mistake.

我认为我们的重点应该放在伊朗人民及其愿望上。

I think our focus should be centered on the people of Iran and their aspirations.

一个经济开放、社会开放、保持现有领土完整性的稳定伊朗，符合该地区和美国的利益。

A stable Iran with an open economy and an open society that has the territorial integrity and is in the same borders that we know right now would be in the region's interest and would be in The United States Of America's interest.

杰森，本周是你获释十周年。

Jason, this week marks ten years since you were released from prison.

你被迫离开了伊朗。

You were forced to leave Iran.

当你观察伊朗当前发生的事情时，这个周年纪念日如何影响你对当下局势的观察和理解？

When you look at what is happening there right now, how does that anniversary shape how you're taking in and watching this moment?

胡安娜，对我来说，很难接受我和妻子已经离开伊朗十年了这个事实。

Juana, it's hard for me to wrap my head around the fact that my wife and I have been out of Iran for ten years.

对她来说，这极其令人心碎，因为她被毫不客气地驱逐并流放，无法返回祖国，而且在可预见的未来可能也无法回去。

It's incredibly heartbreaking to me for her that she was very unceremoniously jettisoned and exiled from her homeland and hasn't been able to return and may not be able to do so for the foreseeable future.

但对我们而言，此刻当我们目睹伊朗人民的抗争，以及他们勇敢而清晰地站起来，要求开辟新道路时，

But for us, at this moment, while we watch the struggle of Iranian people and the fearlessness and the clarity with which they're standing up and demanding a new way forward.

与此同时，伊斯兰政权却以残酷的镇压试图压制这些诉求。

And at the same time, the brutal repression of the Islamic regime to to kind of silence those demands.

这让我们的情绪异常复杂。

It's an incredibly mixed set of emotions.

我感到自豪。

I'm proud.

我感到振奋，但同时也为生命的丧失而恐惧。

I'm exhilarated, but I'm scared about the loss of life.

而且我也担心，如果这个政权倒台，也无法保证一定会有一个更好的替代方案出现。

And also about, you know, the very real possibility that if this regime falls, there's no guarantee that something better would automatically replace it.

我认为，在经历了这么多年之后，说这样的话非常奇怪。

And I think that that is a very strange thing to say after all of these years.

我曾希望，早在十年前，我们就在这类对话中取得远比现在更深远的进展。

I had hoped and wished we'd be much further along in these conversations ten years ago than we actually are.

杰森·拉齐安是《华盛顿邮报》新闻自由倡议项目的负责人，也曾是该报驻德黑兰的前记者。

Jason Razian is the director of Press Freedom Initiatives at The Washington Post and the paper's former correspondent in Tehran.

杰森，谢谢你。

Jason, thank you.

谢谢，胡安娜。

Thanks, Juan.

这

This

本集由莱娜·穆罕默德制作，技术支持由泰德·尼巴内提供。

episode was produced by Lena Mohamed with engineering support from Ted Nibane.

本集由帕特里克·贾伦·瓦塔纳南和考特尼·多宁编辑。

It was edited by Patrick Jaren Watananen and Courtney Dorning.

我们的执行制片人是萨米·耶尼根。

Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan.

这是来自NPR的《Consider This》。

It's consider this from NPR.

我是胡安娜·萨默斯。

I'm Juana Summers.

想在没有广告中断的情况下收听这个播客吗？

Wanna hear this podcast without sponsor breaks?

亚马逊Prime会员可以通过Amazon Music无广告收听《Consider This》，或者您也可以支持NPR的重要新闻报道，并通过+.npr.org获取《Consider This》Plus版。

Amazon Prime members can listen to consider this sponsor free through Amazon Music, or you can also support NPR's vital journalism and get consider this plus at +.npr.org.

网址是+.npr.org。

That's +.npr.org.