特朗普正在加剧欧洲紧张局势。后果是什么？

特朗普总统不会接受任何拒绝。

President Trump is not taking no for an answer.

你愿意为收购格陵兰做到什么地步？

How far are you willing to go to acquire Greenland?

你很快就会知道。

You'll find out.

周二，在白宫简报会上，特朗普向记者坚持认为美国应该收购格陵兰。

On Tuesday during a White House briefing, Trump insisted to reporters that The US should acquire Greenland.

周一，特朗普说过这话。

On Monday, Trump said this.

我们必须要得到它。

We have to have it.

总统似乎乐于将他对格陵兰的渴望升级为可能引发重大国际危机的事件。

And the president seems happy to escalate his desire for Greenland into what could become a major international crisis.

他现在已经威胁要对八名表达反对意见的北约盟友征收关税。

He has now threatened tariffs on eight NATO allies who have expressed their opposition to the idea.

这场对峙正在动摇本周在瑞士达沃斯举行的世界经济论坛。

The standoff is shaking up the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland this week.

显然，我们正进入一个不稳定和失衡的时代，无论从安全与防务角度，还是经济角度都是如此。

It's clear that we are we are reaching a time of of instability of imbalances, both from the security and defense point of view and the economic point of view.

法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙指责特朗普企图削弱欧洲。

French president Emmanuel Macron accused Trump of wanting to, quote, weaken Europe.

特朗普原定于周三在达沃斯发表关于住房可负担性的演讲。

Trump is expected to speak in Davos Wednesday for what was supposed to be a speech about housing affordability.

当被问及特朗普的议程时，财政部长斯科特·贝森对CNBC表示。

When asked about Trump's agenda, treasury secretary Scott Besson told CNBC.

我们拥有世界上最强劲的经济。

We have the strongest economy in the world.

我们拥有世界上最强的军队，美国回来了，这就是美国领导力的体现。

We have the strongest military in the world, and the The US is back, and this is what US leadership looks like.

请想一想。

Consider this.

特朗普正在加剧与欧洲的紧张关系。

Trump is escalating tensions with Europe.

他对美国领导力的构想可能会付出代价。

His vision of US leadership could come at a price.

谁来为这一切买单？

Who would be on the hook to pay for it?

来自NPR，我是斯科特·德特罗。

From NPR, I'm Scott Dettrow.

这是NPR的《深入思考》。

It's consider this from NPR.

明天在瑞士达沃斯，特朗普将与他的欧洲同行会面，而此次会晤正值特朗普威胁称，除非欧洲帮助美国接管格陵兰——这个丹麦的自治领土——否则将对他们征收新关税。

Tomorrow in Davos, Switzerland, Trump will meet with his European counterparts, and the meeting comes as Trump threatens them with new tariffs unless they help The US take over Greenland, a Danish autonomous territory.

稍后，我们将采访两位NPR记者，探讨特朗普最新的经济威胁及其如何契合其执政第一年的整体模式。

In a moment, we will talk to two NPR correspondents about Trump's latest economic threats and how they fit into the pattern of his first year in office.

但首先，记者威廉·马克斯已在瑞士阿尔卑斯山的达沃斯世界经济论坛现场，那里正热议着曾经被视为不可想象的事：大西洋两岸关系可能走向终结。

But first reporter, Willem Marx, is already at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss Alps where talk is swirling around something once viewed as unthinkable, a possible end to the Transatlantic relationship.

最近几天，美国与其盟友之间的关系达到了一个复杂且有些人称之为关键的时刻。

The relationship between The United States and its allies reached a complicated and some have said critical moment in recent days.

在达沃斯泥泞的主要街道上，这条林荫大道上几乎每家酒店、餐厅和咖啡馆都装饰着大型跨国公司的醒目标志，资本主义似乎仍是王者。

Along Davos' slushy main street, the promenade where almost every hotel, restaurant, and cafe is bedecked in the bright logos of giant global corporations, capitalism looks to be king.

然而，特朗普最近以格陵兰为由对八个欧洲国家威胁加征关税，严重削弱了这一年度盛会长期以来所推崇的自由贸易传统。

Yet president Trump's latest threats of tariffs tied to Greenland on eight European nations seem to seriously undermine the free market trade traditions this annual meeting has so long celebrated.

法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙星期二在这里的演讲以一些讽刺性的幽默开场。

The French president Emmanuel Macron started his speech here Tuesday with some sarcastic humor.

这是一个和平、稳定和可预测的时代。

It's a time of peace, stability, and and predictability.

但他很快便变得严肃起来。

He turned serious soon enough though.

我们将转向一个没有规则的世界，国际法被践踏，唯一重要的法则似乎是强者为王，帝国主义野心正在卷土重来。

It's as we'll shift towards a world without rules, where international law is trampled underfoot, and where the only law that seems to matter is that of the strongest and imperial ambitions are resurfacing.

马克龙的演讲，借用一句法语来说，是一次发自内心的呼吁，捍卫多边主义，反对美国的单边行动以及军事或经济上的武力威胁。

Macron's speech was, to borrow a French phrase, or cry from the heart in defense of multilateralism, and a rallying call against US unilateral action and the use of force whether military or economic.

如果没有集体治理，合作就会让位于无情的竞争。

Without collective governance, cooperation gives way to relentless competition.

美国通过贸易协议削弱我们的出口利益，要求最大让步，并公然旨在削弱和从属欧洲，再加上源源不断的新关税，这些都从根本上不可接受。

Competition from The United States Of America through trade agreements that undermine our export interests, demand maximum concessions, and openly aim to weaken and subordinate Europe combined with an endless accumulation of new tariffs that are fundamentally unacceptable.

在同一舞台、同一天，加拿大总理马克·卡尼表达了类似的观点。

On the same stage, on the same day, Canadian prime minister Mark Carney offered a similar message.

强者拥有他们的力量，但我们也有自己的东西。

The powerful have their power, but we have something too.

有能力不再装假，直面现实，在国内增强自身实力，并共同行动。

The capacity to stop pretending, to name reality, to build our strength at home, and to act together.

卡尼将这种做法称为加拿大的道路，在欢迎其他国家加入这条道路后，他获得了罕见的起立鼓掌。

Carney called this approach Canada's path, and after welcoming others to join his nation on that path, he received a rare standing ovation.

在接受欧洲记者采访时，加州州长加文·纽森对欧洲领导人提出的建议更为直率。

Speaking to European journalists, California governor Gavin Newsom was less diplomatic in his advice for European leaders.

是时候挺直腰板，坚定立场了。

It's time to to stand tall and firm, have a backbone.

诺瑟姆在过去一年中频繁且公开地批评总统，他表示，现在应该清楚地认识到，需要对特朗普采取一种新的策略。

Newsom, who's become a frequent and very public critic of the president over the past year, said it should now be clear that a new approach to Trump is needed.

这家伙就像一个推土机。

This guy's a wrecking ball.

我希望人们能意识到我们正在面对什么。

I hope people are waking up to what we're dealing with.

这已经是红色警报了。

This is it's code red.

我的意思是，你们还在遵守所有的规则。

I mean, you guys are still playing by all set of rules.

全世界的人都在跟这家伙打交道。

Everybody globe is with this guy.

他已失去约束。

He's unmoored.

这是丛林法则。

It's the law of the jungle.

这是黎明的法则。

It's the rule of dawn.

一家多年来在财经电视媒体CNBC上举办企业面试的达沃斯当地教堂，今年被改造成‘美国之家’，并用风格化、近乎卡通化的美国鹰和美国首都图像进行装饰。

A local Davos church that for years hosted corporate interviews on the business TV channel CNBC is instead, this year, branded as USA House with stylized almost cartoonish images of American eagles and The US capital.

代表特朗普总统率领美国代表团，我深感荣幸。

It's an honor to represent the US delegation on behalf of president Trump.

这一直是

It's been a

本周初，站在教堂外融化的积雪上，财政部长斯科特·贝桑特对聚集的媒体表示，‘美国优先’并不意味着‘美国孤立’。

Standing outside that church atop melting snow at the start of the week, treasury secretary Scott Bessant told the assembled media that America first did not mean America alone.

但在这个以中立著称的国家里，一些历史悠久的美国盟友似乎开始质疑继续合作的意义。

But here in this famously neutral nation, some historic US allies seem now to question the point of continued cooperation.

这是NPR新闻，我是来自瑞士达沃斯的威尔拉·马克斯。

For NPR News, I'm Willa Marks in Davos, Switzerland.

总统前往达沃斯之前，在白宫接受了记者近九十分钟的采访，并将重塑并‘修复’美国的功劳归于自己。

Just before the president left for Davos, he spoke to reporters at the White House for more than ninety minutes, and he took credit for remaking and, as he put it, fixing America.

我们把一团糟的局面变得非常好。

We have taken a mess and made it really good.

情况还会变得更好。

It's going to get even better.

与此同时，特朗普积极推动收购格陵兰，并威胁要实施更多关税，这动摇了股市，选民们表示他们对自己的个人经济状况感到担忧。

Meanwhile, Trump's aggressive push to acquire Greenland and the threat of even more tariffs has shaken the stock market, and voters say they are worried about prices in their own personal economy.

现在邀请到我身边来帮助我们理清这一切的是资深国家政治记者玛拉·莱森，以及NPR首席经济记者斯科特·霍斯利。

Joining me now to make sense of all this is senior national political correspondent, Mara Liaison, as well as NPR's chief economics correspondent Scott Horsley.

你们两位好。

Hi to both of you.

你好。

Hi there.

嗨。

Hi.

斯科特，我想先从你开始。

Scott, I wanna start with you.

这不是特朗普第一次通过征收关税来迫使其他国家服从他的计划。

This is not the first time Trump has imposed tariffs to try and force countries into complying with his plans.

这些关税真的实现了他所承诺的目标吗？

Have those tariffs actually achieved what he's promised?

到目前为止，总统的关税既没有带来特朗普及其盟友吹嘘的经济繁荣，也没有引发许多预测者所担心的经济灾难。

So far, the president's tariffs have produced neither the boom that Trump and his allies boast about nor the economic disaster that a lot of forecasters had feared.

联邦政府目前征收的关税收入大约是特朗普重返白宫前的四倍。

The federal government is collecting about four times as much tariff revenue as it did before Trump returned to the White House.

顺便说一句，这笔费用的大部分是由美国人承担的，而不是其他国家的人民。

Most of that bill is being paid by Americans, by the way, not people in other countries.

但到目前为止，我们还没有看到大多数贸易伙伴采取大规模的报复措施。

But so far, we haven't seen really widespread retaliation from most of our trading partners.

不过，随着特朗普就格陵兰问题威胁对北约盟友加征新关税，这种情况可能会改变。

Now that could change with these new tariffs, Trump's threatening against NATO allies over Greenland.

一些欧洲国家表示，现在是时候对美国出口商品征收自己的关税了，这种新一轮贸易战的威胁今天重新引发了股市的旧有担忧，道琼斯指数暴跌近900点。

Some European countries are saying it's time to hit back with tariffs of their own on US exports, and the threat of a renewed trade war really rekindled old fears in the stock market today that Dow tumbled almost 900 points.

现在，玛拉，就像斯科特说的，这都是特朗普为期一年的策略的一部分。

Now, Mara, like like Scott said, this is all part of a year long playbook for Trump.

这如何契合呢？

How does this fit in?

这完全符合特朗普对总统职权的理解——行政权力几乎完全不受制约。他喜欢在没有国会、没有制衡机制的情况下行事，比如征收关税、赦免、派遣国民警卫队进入城市、发布行政命令，当然还包括外交政策。

It fits in perfectly with Trump's concept of the presidency where executive power is almost completely unchecked, And he likes to do things where the president has a lot of power without congress, without any checks and balances, like tariffs, like pardons, like sending the National Guard to cities, like executive orders, and, of course, foreign policy too.

他认为关税是一种万能工具，几乎可以不受限制地使用。

He considers tariffs, which he can do almost unchecked, as a kind of Swiss army knife.

他可以用它来应对几乎任何事情，从经济到外交政策，就像他现在正在做的那样，是的。

He can use it for almost every anything from the economy to foreign policy as you see him doing now Mhmm.

关于格陵兰。

Over Greenland.

现在，最高法院即将告诉我们，他对征收关税的权力是否存在任何限制。

Now the supreme court is about to tell us if there are any limits on his power to tariff.

但与此同时，他却把注意力从所有他曾承诺要解决的经济问题上转移开了，反而执着于吞并格陵兰——这一举动实际上将意味着北约的终结，而他也承认了这一点。

But meanwhile, he's taking attention away from all of the things he said he would do to fix the economy, and instead he's been kind of fixated on taking over Greenland, a move that would effectively mean the end of NATO, which he acknowledges.

让我感到惊讶的是，他在谈到格陵兰时表现得如此克制。

And what struck me about this press conference was how restrained he was when he talked about Greenland.

有人问他，为了拿下格陵兰，他会走多远。

He was asked how far he would go to take over Greenland.

他说，你会知道的。

He said you'll find out.

他没有重申要动用武力的威胁。

He didn't repeat his threats to use military force.

他说，他会通过与北约的谈判达成协议，而北约也会喜欢这种方式。

He said that he'll come to an agreement through talks with NATO, something that NATO will like.

这并不意味着他明天不会改变态度，但今天他确实很克制。

Now that doesn't mean he's not gonna change his tune tomorrow, but he was restrained today.

是的。

Right.

而且，斯科特，我想谈谈特朗普和整个政府在这周年纪念日上高度关注的另一件事。

And and, Scott, I wanna talk about something that Trump and the rest of the administration have focused a lot on on this one year anniversary.

经济有多强劲、多健康，它堪称全世界的羡慕对象。

How good and healthy the economy is, how it is the envy of the world.

这有多真实呢？

How true is that?

是的。

Yeah.

如果光靠乐观言辞就够的话，我们早就状态极佳了。

Well, if happy talk were all it took, we would be in great shape.

这是财政部长斯科特·贝森特再次在达沃斯接受CNBC采访时说的话。

Here's the treasury secretary Scott Bessent once again speaking to CNBC in Davos.

这是总统上任一周年的纪念日。

This is the one year anniversary of the president taking office.

我们拥有世界上最强大的经济。

We have the strongest economy in the world.

我们拥有世界上最强大的军队，美国回来了。

We have the strongest military in the world, and the The US is back.

这就是美国领导力的体现。

And this is what US leadership looks like.

民调显示，尽管从许多指标来看，经济如今状况尚可，和特朗普重返白宫前一样，但许多美国人并不买账。

Polls show a lot of Americans are not buying that even though by a lot of measures, the economy is in okay shape today just as it was before Trump returned to the White House.

GDP正在以不错的速度增长。

GDP is growing at a good clip.

工人的生产率有所提升。

Workers productivity is up.

不过，经济上仍有一些挑战。

There are some economic challenges though.

制造业陷入低迷。

Manufacturing's in in the tank.

去年我们失去了7.5万个制造业岗位。

We lost 75,000 factory jobs last year.

整体就业市场已经大幅放缓。

The overall job market has slowed down a lot.

当然，移民人数也大幅下降。

Of course, immigration's also way down.

所以，虽然我们没有创造很多就业机会，但也没有增加很多劳动力。

So while we're not adding a lot of jobs, we're also not adding very many workers.

与此同时，通货膨胀仍然居高不下，这部分原因是总统的关税政策。

At the same time, inflation is still elevated, and that's partly because of the president's tariffs.

白宫方面曾辩称，一旦这些关税实施，就不会继续推高物价。

Now there's been an argument from the White House that once those tariffs are in place, they won't continue to put upward pressure on prices.

这将是一次性的价格上涨。

It it'll be a kind of a one and done price increase.

如果关税本身只是一次性的，那确实如此。

That would be true if the tariffs themselves are one and done.

但如果总统持续新增关税，那么通胀压力也会持续存在。

But if the president keeps adding new tariffs, then the inflationary pressures will also continue.

玛拉，通货膨胀和高昂的生活成本是前总统拜登的一大政治负担，我认为特朗普总统是最早意识到这一点的人之一。

Mara, inflation and the high cost of living were a really big political liability for former president Biden, and I think president Trump is one of the first people who saw that.

他在这方面精准发力，效果显著。

He really zeroed in on that to great effect.

但如今是否可以说，这些问题也开始拖累特朗普总统了？

But is it fair to say now they seem to be a drag on president Trump as well?

确实如此。

That's true.

这次记者会上让我印象深刻的另一点是，特朗普和拜登如此相似。

And what else struck me about this press conference was how similar Trump and Biden were.

他们都试图说服美国人，认为经济状况比选民自身的实际体验要好得多。

Both of them tried to convince Americans that the economy was a lot better than voters' own experience of the economy is.

你知道有一句话说，你不能吃GDP或股票市场，人们并不关心股票市场。

You know, there's a phrase, you can't eat GDP or the stock market, and people don't care about the stock market.

他们也不关心通货膨胀率。

They don't care about the rate of inflation.

他们关心的是价格，当政客告诉他们不要相信自己的眼睛，说经济比他们想象的好得多时，他们非常反感。

They care about prices, and they don't like it when politicians tell them that they should not believe that they should believe their own lying eyes, and the economy is a lot better than they think it is.

对牛肉价格不满的美国人不会认为吞并格陵兰能解决这个问题。

And Americans who are unhappy about the price of beef don't think taking over Greenland is gonna be the answer to that.

我们最近听到的特朗普的最新承诺是，他表示希望将部分关税收入返还给美国消费者。

And the latest promise we've heard from Trump is that he's saying that he would like to return some of that tariff revenue to US consumers.

他提到一点点这方面的情况。

He here's a little bit of that.

我们之所以会讨论这个问题，是因为从关税中流入的资金太多，足以至少发放每人2000美元的红利，并偿还国家债务。

The reason we're even talking about it is that we have so much money coming in from tariffs that we'll be able to issue at least a $2,000 dividend and also pay down debt for the country.

斯科特，这可能吗？

Scott, is that possible?

不可能。

No.

总统的计算根本对不上。

The president's math just doesn't add up there.

发放2000美元的红利所需费用将超过特朗普今年预期的关税收入，因此这会增加赤字，而非减少债务。

Paying a $2,000 dividend would cost more than Trump's tariffs are expected to generate this year, so it would add to the deficit, not reduce the debt.

请记住，白宫已经将部分关税收入指定用于救助那些因总统的贸易战而失去出口市场的农民。

And keep in mind, the White House has already earmarked some of that tariff revenue to bail out farmers who saw their export markets dry up because of the president's trade war.

但你可以看到，特朗普多么相信让经济过热——无论是减税、发红利、救助农民，还是降低利率。

But you can see how much Trump believes in running the economy hot, whether it's tax cuts or dividends or bailouts for farmers or lower interest rates.

他想刺激经济，并且想把功劳归于自己。

He wants to juice the economy, and he wants credit for it.

我的意思是，称这种情形为‘分屏’公平吗？

I mean, is it fair to call this kind of a split screen?

特朗普正前往达沃斯，准备与欧洲领导人展开激烈交锋，而在这里，共和党人却试图将话题引向可负担性和移民问题。

You've got Trump headed to Davos for this big confrontation with European leaders, and then here at home, Republicans are trying to steer the conversation to affordability and immigration.

那么，这里的策略到底是什么？

Like, what is the strategy here?

嗯，特朗普在可负担性问题上并没有遵循任何策略。

Well, Trump isn't following the strategy as far as affordability is concerned.

在欧洲和达沃斯这个大型商业会议上，所有人都在谈论格陵兰，而他本应去那里讨论住房问题。

All anyone is talking about in Europe and in Davos, this big business meeting, is Greenland, and he's supposed to be going over there to talk about housing.

他的顾问们承诺将转向 affordability，提出许多新想法来降低物价。

His advisers have promised to pivot to affordability with a lot of new ideas to bring price prices down.

他今天没有提到其中任何一项，甚至再次否定了 affordability 是一个真实问题的说法。

He didn't speak about any of them today, and he even dismissed again the idea that affordability is a real problem.

公平地说，总统在瑞士达沃斯这个被数百万美元豪华滑雪淋浴环绕的地方谈论住房负担能力，背景本身就有点奇怪。

And to be fair, it was always gonna be a little weird backdrop for the president to talk about housing affordability in Davos, Switzerland surrounded by multimillion dollar ski showers.

美国住房市场已经低迷了好几年。

The US housing market has been in a slump for several years now.

许多潜在买家都被高房价挡在了门外。

A lot of would be buyers are priced out.

我们之前已经开始看到一些进展。

We were beginning to see a little bit of progress there.

抵押贷款利率从一年前的约7%下降到上周的略高于6%，但这场重新升级的贸易战可能会危及这一进展。

Mortgage rates have come down from about 7% a year ago to just over 6% last week, but this renewed trade war could jeopardize that.

今天我们看到美国国债收益率飙升，更重要的是，总统试图操控美联储的举动也可能适得其反。

We saw treasury yields jump today, and what's more, the president's effort to manhandle the Federal Reserve could also backfire.

特朗普希望降低利率，但如果人们认为美联储控制通胀的能力减弱，我们可能会面临物价和利率双双上升的局面。

Trump wants lower interest rates, but if people come to see the Fed as less able to control inflation, we could end up with both higher prices and higher interest rates.

这是NPR的斯科特·霍斯利和马拉·埃利森。

That is NPR's Scott Horsley and Mara Eliason.

感谢两位。

Thanks to both of you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我们马上回来。

We'll be with you.

本集由马克·里弗斯和凯伦·扎莫拉制作。

This episode was produced by Mark Rivers and Karen Zamora.

本集由凯尔西·内尔、拉斐尔·诺姆、尼克·斯派瑟和帕特里克·贾伦·瓦达纳纳剪辑。

It was edited by Kelsey Snell, Rafael Naum, Nick Spicer, and Patrick Jaren Waddanana.

我们的执行制片人是萨米·叶尼根。

Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan.

这是来自NPR的节目。

It's consider this from NPR.

想在没有广告中断的情况下收听这个播客吗？

Wanna hear this podcast without sponsor breaks?

亚马逊Prime会员可以通过亚马逊音乐免费收听《Consider This》，或者您也可以支持NPR的重要新闻报道，通过+.npr.org获取《Consider This Plus》。

Amazon Prime members can listen to consider this sponsor free through Amazon Music, or you can also support NPR's vital journalism and get consider this plus at +.npr.org.

网址是+.npr.org。

That's +.npr.org.