我们对伊朗正在发生的事情了解多少？

现在很难知道伊朗正在发生什么。

It is difficult to know what's happening in Iran right now.

伊朗的通信中断始于周四晚上，因此自那以后我们就一直没收到他们的消息。

The communications blackout started on Thursday night in Iran, and so it's basically been Thursday since we've heard from them.

这不仅仅是我的情况。

And it's not just me.

这是全球各地的伊朗侨民的共同处境。

It's Iranians across the diaspora around the world.

霍莉·达格雷斯是华盛顿近东政策研究所的高级研究员。

Holly Dagres is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

她是在伊朗长大的。

She grew up in Iran.

达格雷斯告诉美国国家公共电台，由于伊朗政府关闭了互联网和电话通信，她已经好几天没有收到家人的消息了。

Dagres told NPR that she hasn't heard from her family in days because the government there has shut down the Internet and phone communications.

我知道有些人已经能够联系上他们的家人和朋友。

I know that some people have been able to get ahold of their families and friends.

如果你们有朋友、邻居或家人使用星链服务，已经收到了大量信息，但这些用户在整个9000万人口的国家中仅有5万到6万人。

There's been messages pouring in from Starlink if you have a friend, a neighbor, or a family member, but that's only 50 to 60,000 users across a country of 90,000,000.

因此，实际上，我们对这个国家大部分地区正在发生的事情一无所知。

So effectively, much of the country, we don't know what's happening inside.

什么

What

我们所知道的是这一点。

we do know is this.

这个国家已经连续数日爆发大规模反政府抗议，最初由经济崩溃引发，如今则演变为对神权政体的愤怒。

The country has been rocked by days of large anti government protests, first sparked by the crippling economy, now anger at the theocratic regime.

网上发布的视频显示，街道上抗议者高呼鼓掌，还有路障和燃烧的火焰画面。

Videos posted online show streets where protesters are shouting and clapping and images of barricades and lit fires.

美国国家公共电台尚未能独立核实这些视频的真实性。

NPR has not been able to independently authenticate these videos.

据一家总部位于美国的人权活动家新闻机构称，已有超过500人丧生。

More than 500 people have been killed according to The US based human rights activist news agency.

NPR无法独立确认这一数字。

NPR is unable to independently confirm that figure.

目前，伊朗人想要两件事。

Right now, what Iranians want are two things.

他们希望能够接触世界，但更重要的是，他们希望实现民主过渡。

They want to have access to the world, but more importantly, they want a democratic transition.

他们长期以来一直呼吁推翻这个政权。

They've been calling for this regime to go for a long time.

现在，特朗普总统正在考虑是否要介入以及如何介入，尽管特朗普称伊朗愿意进行谈判。

And now president Trump is considering whether to weigh in and how, even though Trump says Iran is willing to negotiate.

我认为他们厌倦了被美国欺凌。

I think they're tired of being beat up by The United States.

这是特朗普周日晚上在空军一号上对记者说的话。

Here's Trump talking to reporters on Air Force One on Sunday night.

我们可能会与他们会面。

We may meet with them.

我的意思是，会议正在安排中，但由于会议前发生的事情，我们可能不得不采取行动。

I mean, it's a meeting is being set up, but we may have to act because of what's happening before the meeting.

对。

Right.

但如果美国发动攻击，伊朗已威胁要报复。

But And if The United States attacks, Iran has threatened to retaliate.

纳德·哈比比在布兰戴斯大学研究中东经济。

Nader Habibi focuses on Middle East Economics at Brandeis University.

他告诉NPR，该政权知道美国可以对弹道导弹设施造成重大破坏，并打击政治目标。

He told NPR that the regime knows The US could do considerable damage to the ballistic missile facilities and hit political targets.

我认为他们并没有低估风险。

I don't think they are underestimating the risk.

这就是为什么他们正在发出一些威胁性的姿态，以示报复，尽管实际上他们可能无法兑现这些威胁。

That's why they are issuing some threatening postures in terms of retaliation, even though in reality they might not be able to carry out those threats.

这是特朗普再次发言。

Here's Trump again.

如果他们这么做了，我们将以前所未有的程度打击他们。

If they do that, we will hit them at levels that they've never been hit before.

想想这些：制裁、网络攻击、军事打击。

Consider this, sanctions, cyber attacks, military strikes.

特朗普总统不断暗示美国可能会介入。

President Trump keeps suggesting that The United States may get involved.

如果是这样，何时以及如何介入？

If so, when and how?

来自NPR，我是胡安娜·萨默斯。

From NPR, I'm Juana Summers.

本周《每日要闻》节目，从明尼阿波利斯到委内瑞拉，再到美联储。

This week on Up First, from Minneapolis to Venezuela to the Federal Reserve.

今年迄今为止最重要的新闻之一，就是特朗普政府如何运用总统权力。

One of the biggest stories of the year so far is how the Trump administration is using presidential power.

我们将追踪每一个角度，让你每天清晨都了解正在发生的事、什么是真相、什么不是真相——尽在《每日要闻》。

We're following every angle, so you start each day knowing what's happening, what's true, and what isn't on Up First.

在NPR应用或您收听播客的任何平台收听。

Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

Netflix的《怪奇物语》已迎来结局，我们正在梳理最终季中最关键的时刻。

Netflix's stranger things has reached its end, and we're unpacking the biggest moments in the final season.

我们会讨论对大结局的看法、我们的主角最后一次对抗邪恶势力时发生了什么，当然，还有那些糟糕的假发。

We'll talk about what we thought of the finale, what happened to our heroes when they set out to battle the forces of evil one last time, and, of course, the terrible wigs.

在NPR应用或您收听播客的任何平台收听《流行文化欢乐时光》。

Listen to pop culture happy hour in the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

NPR的播客《特朗普的任期》为您提供关于特朗普政府重大新闻的当日更新。

NPR's podcast Trump's terms is your source for same day updates on big news about the Trump administration.

每集简短聚焦，一次只讲一个话题，大约五分钟。

Short, focused episodes, one topic at a time, about five minutes or so.

我们整合NPR全部报道内容，确保您始终掌握最重要、最紧急的新闻。

We carry out reporting from across all of NPR's coverage so you are always getting the biggest, most urgent stories.

在NPR应用或您收听播客的任何平台收听《特朗普的任期》。

Listen to Trump's terms on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

这是来自NPR的《就此而言》。

It's Consider This from NPR.

在过去几天里，伊朗和美国相互发出威胁，因为伊朗的反政府抗议活动已造成数百人死亡。

Iran and The United States have been trading threats over the last few days as anti government protests in Iran have killed hundreds of people.

更多详情，我们邀请到NPR白宫记者弗兰科·奥多内兹和国家安全记者格雷格·迈雷。

For more, we're joined by NPR White House correspondent Franco Ordonez and national security correspondent Greg Myrae.

你们好。

Hi to both of you.

你好。

Hello.

嗨，瓦娜。

Hi, Wana.

格雷格，我先问你。

Greg, I'll start with you.

告诉我们关于这些抗议活动的最新情况。

Tell us what the latest says on these protests.

是的。

Yeah.

最近几天，伊朗安全部队使用致命武力的频率更高了。

The Iranian security forces are using deadly force much more frequently in recent days.

过去两周，已有超过500名伊朗人丧生。

More than 500 Iranians have been killed now over the past two weeks.

这些死者主要是抗议者，也有一些安全部队成员。

These are mostly protesters and some security force members.

这是根据伊朗境内的人权活动人士提供的数据。

This is according to the human rights activists in Iran.

他们身在美国，但在伊朗设有监测人员。

They are based here in The US but have monitors in Iran.

目前，无论是NPR还是其他新闻机构都无法核实这些数字，因为伊朗的信息现在非常零散。

Now neither NPR nor other news organization can verify these figures because information is so fragmented from Iran right now.

政府在过去几天里已经切断了互联网。

The government has shut down the Internet for the past several days.

我们在社交媒体上看到一些视频，但可靠的信息非常少。

We are seeing videos on social media, but very little solid information.

本地记者受到限制。

Local journalists are restrained.

外国记者无法进入该国。

Foreign journalists can't get into the country.

多年来，我们目睹了多次大规模街头示威，这些示威可以追溯到2009年。

And over the years, we've seen several outbursts of these large street demonstrations dating back really to 2009.

最近一次示威由恶劣的经济状况引发，但现在越来越多的人呼吁推翻政权。

The latest one erupted over miserable economic conditions, but now there are increasing calls to oust the regime.

这可能是自1979年伊斯兰政府上台以来面临的最大挑战。

This may well be the biggest challenge to the Islamic government since it came to power in 1979.

正如我们开头听到的，特朗普总统表示他正在考虑伊朗的各种选项。

And as we heard at the top, president Trump says he is looking at all sorts of options in Iran.

弗朗科，你能告诉我们关于他的情况吗？

Franco, what can you tell us about him?

是的。

Yeah.

特朗普总统表示，伊朗已经开始触碰他的红线，但他并未明确说明具体是哪些红线。

President Trump said Iran is starting to cross his red lines, but he did not say exactly what they're looking at.

但他及其政府表示，正在权衡多种不同选项，包括军事和非军事手段。

But he and his administration say they are weighing several different possibilities, including military and nonmilitary options.

他还表示，在此前发出威胁后，伊朗领导人实际上在上周末主动联系，希望进行谈判。

And he said after making earlier threats that the leaders of Iran reached out actually over the weekend and want to negotiate.

目前他的团队正在筹备一次会面，但他也表示，如果格雷格所提到的暴力行为持续下去，他们可能不得不提前采取行动。

Now his team is working on a meeting, but he also said they might have to act sooner if this violence that Greg is talking about continues.

特朗普预计明天将与他的国家安全团队会面，讨论伊朗问题。

Trump's expected to meet with his national security team tomorrow about Iran.

伊朗方面也作出了回应，警告称如果美国发动袭击，美国在当地的基地可能成为合法打击目标；但新闻秘书卡罗琳·利维特今天称这些言论荒谬，并在福克斯新闻上表示，伊朗政权公开说的是一套，私下对美国政府说的却是另一套。

Iran actually has responded as well warning that US bases could be considered a legitimate target if The US goes through with the strike, but press secretary Caroline Leavitt called those comments laughable today and said on Fox News that the regime is saying one thing publicly and saying something very different privately to the administration.

但特朗普总统的目标真的是保护抗议者吗？

But is president Trump's goal really to protect protesters?

我的意思是，他并不以捍卫人权著称。

I mean, he's not exactly known for fighting for human rights.

他究竟想达成什么样的协议？

What kind of deal is he seeking?

是的。

Yeah.

他确实不以捍卫人权著称。

He's definitely not known for fighting for human rights.

但我们也别忘了，他在第一个任期内曾下令对叙利亚目标发动军事打击，以回应阿萨德政权的化学武器袭击。

But let's also remember that he did order military strikes on Syrian targets during his first administration in response to chemical attacks by the Assad regime.

当时，他也提到自己的红线被跨越，并特别引用了窒息儿童的画面。

At that time, he talked about his red line being crossed as well and specifically cited the image of choking children.

如今，特朗普表示他本周末将与亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克讨论，可能利用马斯克的星链卫星互联网服务来帮助伊朗的通信。

Now today or this weekend, Trump also said he would talk with billionaire Elon Musk about possibly getting Starlink, Musk satellite Internet service to help with communications in Iran.

但特朗普真正想要的——这也是他长期以来的愿望——是一项永久阻止伊朗获得核武器的协议。

But what Trump really wants, and this is something he's wanted for a long time, is a deal that permanently prevents Iran from getting nuclear weapons.

嗯。

Mhmm.

弗兰科，特朗普总统从国会、美国盟友以及中东其他国家那里得到了什么样的反馈？

Franco, what kind of feedback is president Trump getting from congress, US allies, other countries in The Middle East?

嗯，他总是向朋友和盟友试探想法。

Well, he's always bouncing ideas off his friends and allies.

例如，一位亲密盟友、参议员林赛·格雷厄姆就敦促特朗普除掉那些杀害抗议者的伊朗领导人。

One close ally, senator Lindsey Graham, for example, is urging Trump to kill, quote, kill the leaders of Iran who are killing protesters.

格雷厄姆在福克斯新闻上表示，除掉最高领导人将带来和平，并开启中东的新篇章。

Graham argued on Fox News that taking out the supreme leaders would lead to peace and a new day in The Middle East.

当然，其他议员对采取军事行动表达了谨慎态度。

Now, of course, other lawmakers have expressed caution about taking military action.

我们还听到了伊朗流亡王储瓦纳呼吁特朗普进行干预。

We've also heard Wana from the exiled crown prince of Iran who has called on Trump to intervene.

一位保守派广播主持人休·赫维特问特朗普是否会会见王储，但特朗普表示现在与他会面并不合适。

Trump was asked if he'd meet with the crown prince by a conservative radio host, Hugh Hewitt, but Trump said it would not be appropriate right now to do that.

格雷格，如果我们能的话，让我们先退一步，谈谈伊朗领导层为何变得如此脆弱。

Greg, if we can, let's just take a step back here and talk about how Iran's leadership has become so vulnerable.

是的。

Yeah.

在过去两年里，伊朗确实遭受了一系列重大挫折。

Iran has really suffered this series of major setbacks in the past two years.

首先是在其地区代理网络中，现在则是在国内。

First, among its proxy network in the region and now at home.

这一切其实始于2023年10月哈马斯对以色列的袭击，胡安娜。

It really starts, Juana, with the Hamas attack in Israel in October 2023.

以色列的严厉回应重创了哈马斯，而哈马斯一直受到伊朗的支持。

Israel's harsh response decimated Hamas, which has which has been supported by Iran.

一年后的2024年，以色列又给了另一记重击，这次针对的是伊朗也支持的真主党和黎巴嫩。

And a year later, the 2024, Israel delivered another powerful blow, this time to Hezbollah and Lebanon, which Iran also backs.

就在那之后，叙利亚独裁者巴沙尔·阿萨德逃亡，失去了又一个盟友。

Right after that, Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad fled, removing another ally.

伊朗投入了数十亿美元，利用这些团体在地区内投射力量。

Iran invested billions and used these groups to project power in the region.

突然间，它们全都消失了或严重削弱了。

Suddenly, they're all gone or badly weakened.

然后，以色列和美国联手于去年六月轰炸了伊朗。

And then Israel and The US teamed up and bombed Iran last June.

他们袭击了核设施，但也暴露了伊朗防御体系的脆弱性。

They hit the nuclear facilities, but they also exposed the weakness of Iran's defenses.

现在我们看到大规模的抗议活动正在挑战政权。

And now we're seeing these mass protests challenging the regime.

格雷格，伊朗领导层目前有哪些选择呢？

And, Greg, what options does the Iranian leadership have at this point?

他们的选择很有限，而且都不好。

Well, they're limited, and they're not good ones.

传统的做法是出动革命卫队来镇压抗议活动。

The traditional playbook is to unleash the revolutionary guards to crush the protest.

这在过去是有效的。

That worked previously.

它可能再次奏效，但这并不能解决民众对生活标准的根本不满，而这种不满将持续侵蚀政权所剩无几的支持。

It may work again, but it doesn't address the fundamental grievances on living standards, and that will keep eroding any support the regime might have left.

伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊已经86岁了。

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Alhamenei, is 86.

他掌权已有三十七年。

He's been in power thirty seven years.

他擅长维持权力，但却未能满足伊朗人民的日常需求。

He's been good at holding power, but he's failed to meet the day to day needs of Iranians.

NPR的格雷格·迈里和弗兰科·奥多内兹，感谢你们两位。

NPR's Greg Myrie and Franco Ordonez, thanks to both of you.

当然。

Sure.

谢谢。

Thank you.

这个

This

本集由卡伦·扎莫拉制作，音频工程由贝基·布朗和约瑟芬·尼内伊负责。

episode was produced by Karen Zamora with audio engineering by Becky Brown and Josephine Neonai.

本集由安德鲁·苏斯曼、丽贝卡·梅茨勒和考特尼·多宁编辑。

It was edited by Andrew Sussman, Rebecca Metzler, and Courtney Dorning.

我们的执行制片人是萨米·叶尼根。

Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan.

这是来自NPR的《就此而言》。

It's Consider This from NPR.

我是胡安娜·萨默斯。

I'm Juana Summers.

这是《新鲜空气》的联合主持人塔尼娅·莫塞利。

This is Tanya Moseley, cohost of Fresh Air.

你可能会在深夜电视节目或YouTube上看到你喜爱的演员、导演和喜剧演员，但《新鲜空气》能让你深入了解。

You'll see your favorite actors, directors, and comedians on late night TV shows or YouTube, but what you get with Fresh Air is a deep dive.

花些高质量的时间与比莉·艾利什、奎斯特洛夫、爱莉安娜·格兰德、斯蒂芬·科尔伯特等众多名人交流。

Spend some quality time with people like Billie Eilish, Questlove, Ariana Grande, Stephen Colbert, and so many more.

我们提出的问题，你在其他地方听不到。

We ask questions you won't hear asked anywhere else.

收听来自NPR和WHYY的《Fresh Air》播客。

Listen to the Fresh Air podcast from NPR and WHYY.

想在没有广告插播的情况下收听这个播客吗？

Wanna hear this podcast without sponsor breaks?

亚马逊Prime会员可以通过Amazon Music无广告收听《Consider This》，或者你也可以支持NPR的重要新闻报道，通过+.npr.org获取《Consider This Plus》。

Amazon Prime members can listen to consider this sponsor free through Amazon Music, or you can also support NPR's vital journalism and get consider this plus at +.npr.org.

网址是+.npr.org。

That's +.npr.org.