特朗普对委内瑞拉的最终目标是什么？

过去七天里，美国对委内瑞拉的行动升级，政府持续打击其声称的毒品运输船只。

In the last seven days, US actions against Venezuela have escalated as the administration continues to target what it alleges are drug boats.

12月10日，美国扣押了船长。

On December 10, The US seized the skipper.

你可能已经知道，我们刚刚在委内瑞拉海岸扣押了一艘油轮。

As you probably know, we've just, seized a tanker on the coast of Venezuela.

大型油轮，非常庞大。

Large tanker, very large.

非常非常庞大，而且运载着受制裁的委内瑞拉石油。

Very, very large and carrying sanctioned Venezuelan oil.

周二晚间，特朗普总统在Truth Social上宣布：'我命令对所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮实施全面彻底封锁。'

Then Tuesday night, president Trump declared on Truth Social, quote, I am ordering a total and complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers going into and out of Venezuela, end quote.

特朗普政府毫不掩饰其希望该国总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗及其盟友下台的意图。

The Trump administration has made no secret it wants the country's president, Nicolas Maduro, and his allies out of office.

他的日子不多了。

His days are numbered.

尼古拉斯·马杜罗在考虑是否要继续当毒贩时，需要做出一些决定。

Nicolas Maduro, as he considers whether or not he wants to continue to be a narco trafficker, has some decisions to make.

他不想与美国纠缠。

He doesn't want around with The United States.

想想看。

Consider this.

特朗普政府正在加大对委内瑞拉及其领导人的施压力度。

The Trump administration is ramping up pressure on Venezuela and its leader.

最终目标是什么？

What's the ultimate goal?

我是NPR的玛丽·路易斯·凯利。

From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

本周《Up First》节目中，这是国会今年的最后一个工作周，这意味着在数百万美国人的医保费用飙升前采取行动的时间所剩无几。

This week on Up First, it's the last work week of the year, for congress anyway, and that means time is running out for action on health care before premiums skyrocket for millions of Americans.

我们将为您持续关注国会山上的最后时刻紧急行动。

We'll keep you updated on the eleventh hour scramble on Capitol Hill.

本周的《Up First》节目，现已获得金球奖最佳播客提名。

This week on Up First, now a Golden Globe nominee for best podcast.

您可以通过NPR应用或任何播客平台收听。

Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

常规保险适用于日常标准风险，但对于那些一代人一遇的灾难，牙买加等国家已做好其他准备。

Regular insurance is great for your standard day to day risks, but for those once in a generation catastrophes, countries like Jamaica have made other preparations.

我们都意识到飓风不可避免，我们不能坐以待毙。

We all realize that hurricanes are inevitable, and we can't just sit here and hope.

我们必须积极主动。

We had to be proactive.

在《Planet Money》节目中，了解牙买加如何通过一场赌注挺过该国历史上最严重的飓风。

On Planet Money, how Jamaica weathered the worst hurricane in the country's history with a bet.

《Planet Money》。

Planet Money.

您可以通过NPR应用或任何播客平台收听。

Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

这里是NPR的《考虑这个》节目。

It's consider this from NPR.

美国与委内瑞拉之间的紧张局势正在升级，此前美国扣押了一艘受制裁的油轮，特朗普总统宣布对进出委内瑞拉的所有受制裁油轮实施全面封锁。

Tensions are rising between The US and Venezuela, and this comes after The US seized a sanctioned oil tanker and president Trump declared a complete blockade on all sanctioned oil tankers coming in and out of Venezuela.

委内瑞拉政府称这是无耻的威胁，意图掠夺该国的石油财富。

Venezuela's government calls this an outrageous threat intended to rob the country of its oil wealth.

更多内容，我们邀请了两位追踪此事的NPR记者加入讨论：里约热内卢的卡莉·汗和华盛顿的格雷格·迈拉。

For more, I'm joined by two NPR correspondents following this story, Carrie Khan in Rio De Janeiro and Greg Myra here in Washington.

你们好。

Hi, you two.

你好。

Hi.

你好，路易斯。

Hi, Louise.

格雷格，你先开始吧。

You kick us off, Greg.

对列入美国制裁名单的油轮实施封锁。

A a blockade on tankers that are on a US sanctions list.

这实际上是什么情况？

What does that actually look like?

这有多严重？

How big a deal is it?

是的。

Yeah.

这确实很严重，而且这再次加剧了对委内瑞拉的压力。

It it is a big deal, and this does ratchet up the pressure on Venezuela again.

我们现在完全可以预期美国会扣押更多已列入制裁名单的油轮。

Now we could certainly expect The US to seize more oil tankers already on this US sanctions list.

事实上，海岸警卫队上周才在近海扣押了一艘油轮。

In fact, the coast guard did that just last week with a ship that was off the coast.

嗯。

Mhmm.

一个监测组织——油轮追踪者最近表示，在委内瑞拉及其附近水域的80艘油轮中，约有30艘列入了美国制裁名单。

Now a monitoring group, tanker trackers, said recently that around 30 of the 80 oil tankers in or near the waters of Venezuela were on a US sanctions list.

所以这30艘可能成为潜在目标，但其他船只则未必。

So these 30 could be potential targets, but others may not be.

这些被列入制裁名单的船只中有许多被认为是幽灵船。

Many of these on the sanctions list are considered ghost ships.

它们试图伪装身份和位置，被那些试图规避西方制裁的国家所利用。

They try to disguise their identity and location and are used by countries trying to evade Western sanctions.

因此这将包括委内瑞拉、俄罗斯和伊朗。

So this would include Venezuela, Russia, Iran.

如果美国封锁或扣押这些油轮，对委内瑞拉可能是重大打击。

Now if The US blocks or seizes these tankers, it could be a major blow to Venezuela.

该国极度依赖石油出口。

It's a country hugely dependent on oil exports.

一艘满载的大型油轮运载着价值约1亿美元的石油。

A large fully loaded tanker carries around a $100,000,000 worth of oil.

还有一点要向你提出。

One other point to put to you.

总统还表示，委内瑞拉必须归还，我引用原话，'必须归还他们之前从我们这里窃取的所有石油、土地和其他资产'。

The president has also said Venezuela must return, and I'm gonna quote, must return all of the oil, land, and other assets that they previously stole from us.

我们清楚他指的是什么吗？

Do we know what he's talking about?

并不确切。

Not precisely.

这一点并不明确，而且有些令人困惑。

This was not clear and a bit confusing.

今天有一些猜测，其中一些甚至可以追溯到上世纪七十年代。

There's been some speculation today, some of it going all the way back to the nineteen seventies.

当时，西方石油公司是委内瑞拉石油行业的主要参与者，但该国开始通过一家国有公司对石油行业进行国有化。

At that time, Western oil companies were the main player in Venezuela's oil industry, But the country began to nationalize the oil industry under a state run company.

西方公司的角色被大幅削弱，大多数最终逐渐退出了。

Western companies were given a greatly reduced role and and most eventually left over time.

我们需要指出，尽管近年来局势动荡，美国雪佛龙石油公司仍在委内瑞拉运营。

We should note one US oil company, Chevron, is still operating in Venezuela despite all the turmoil in recent years.

雪佛龙拥有美国政府颁发的许可证，使其免受美国制裁影响，该公司表示业务仍在持续进行。

Chevron has a US government license that exempts it from The US sanctions, and the company says operations are still ongoing.

雪佛龙生产了委内瑞拉大量石油，约占其日产量的四分之一到三分之一，而总产量约为每天一百万桶。

Chevron produces a lot of Venezuela's oil, about a quarter to a third of its daily output, and that overall output is roughly a million barrels a day.

玛丽·路易斯，我能插句话吗？

Mary Louise, can I just jump in?

当然，请讲。

Sure, please.

特朗普当前对委内瑞拉石油的关注，今天在其副幕僚长史蒂文·米勒的另一篇帖子中得到了呼应。

Trump's focus now on Venezuela's oil, was echoed in another post today from his deputy chief of staff, Steven Miller.

他称这次'征用'是'有记录以来对美国财富和财产的最大盗窃'。

He called the, quote, expropriation the largest recorded theft of American wealth and property.

正如格雷格所说，目前尚不清楚米勒具体指的是什么。

And like what Greg was saying, it's unclear exactly what Miller is referring to.

在2000年代中期，委内瑞拉前总统乌戈·查韦斯执政期间，确实发生过对美国剩余石油基础设施的征用。

There, were some expropriations of remaining US oil infrastructure in the mid two thousands in Venezuela under then president Hugo Chavez.

也许他指的就是这件事。

Maybe he was talking about that too.

一些分析人士表示，这种新的强调可能为马杜罗开辟了一条新的谈判途径。

Some analysts say this new emphasis could be a new negotiating avenue opening up for Maduro.

或许特朗普政府正在考虑以归还部分被征用资产为条件，换取马杜罗维持现状。

Maybe the Trump administration is thinking return some expropriated assets in exchange for staying where you are now, Maduro.

好的。

Okay.

我们一直在讨论特朗普政府的表态。

So we've been talking through what the Trump administration is saying.

凯莉，对方作何回应？

Carrie, what's the response?

委内瑞拉方面能否向我们透露更多信息，说明他们如何看待美国的最新威胁？

What does Venezuela tell us a little bit more about how they're taking this latest American threat.

官方表态非常强硬。

Officially, it's been loud.

可以想象，语气严厉且充满了民族主义的团结防卫姿态。

And as you could probably imagine, harsh in tone and chock full of, nationalistic rally around the flag defensive posturing.

以下是委内瑞拉国防部长弗拉基米尔·帕德里尼奥·洛佩斯的高调反驳。

Here's a quick, hit of high volume retort from Venezuela's defense minister, Vladimir Padrinino Lopez.

这是今天早上电视直播的内容。

This was this morning on live TV.

他周围站着一群挥拳助威的军官，称美国的新威胁是明显的侵略行为，充分表明美国企图染指委内瑞拉的石油和自然资源。

He had this cadre of fist pumping military surrounding him, officers, and he called the new US threats a clear act of aggression that makes it clear that what The US is trying to do is all about Venezuela's oil and natural resources.

他说'我们不会被你们的嘲弄和威胁吓倒'。

He said we're not intimidated by your taunts and threats.

委内瑞拉总检察长也加入了表态。

The attorney general of Venezuela also chimed in.

他对特朗普关于委内瑞拉窃取美国土地和财产的指控发表了大篇幅回应。

He had a lot to say about Trump's claims that Venezuela stole US land and property.

他称这是恐怖、腐朽且荒谬的。

He called that macabre, decadent, and irrational.

凯莉，再问你一个问题，这次最新行动在大局中处于什么位置。

Carrie, one more to you, which is how this latest move fits into the bigger picture.

我们知道特朗普总统及其团队已明确表示希望尼古拉斯·马杜罗下台。

We know president Trump, his team, they've made it clear they want Nicolas Maduro out of office.

封锁措施在其中起到什么作用？

How does the blockade fit in?

封锁能帮助实现这个目标吗？

Will the blockade help achieve that?

这正是当前的关键问题。

That's the huge question right now.

要知道，特朗普在第一个任期内就曾试图施压迫使马杜罗下台。

You know, Trump tried in his first term to pressure Maduro out.

这次，我们在加勒比地区进行了大规模军事集结——表面上是打击毒品走私，从提高对马杜罗的悬赏金额，到将马杜罗及其腐败官员定性为恐怖主义贩毒集团。

This time, we have the huge military buildup in The Caribbean, ostensibly to combat drug trafficking, all the way to increasing a reward for Maduro's arrest to designating Maduro and his corrupt officials a terrorist narco group.

现在特朗普正触及委内瑞拉经济的核心。

Now Trump is going to the heart of the Venezuelan economy.

正如格雷格所说，石油收入非常庞大，几乎占该国全部创收活动的90%。

The oil revenues, like Greg said, are huge, nearly 90% of the country's entire revenue generating activity.

那么这会是压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草吗？会造成经济困境，让委内瑞拉人走上街头反抗吗？

So will this be the final straw and create the economic hardship to, you know, break the backs of the Venezuelans who will take to the streets?

我向政治学家哈维尔·科拉莱斯提出了这个问题。

I asked a political scientist Javier Corrales that.

他是阿默斯特学院密切关注委内瑞拉的观察家，他表示自己并不这么认为。

He's a close Venezuela watcher at Amherst, and he says he just doesn't think so.

要引发起义将非常困难，因为委内瑞拉社会已遭受严重压制，民众深受创伤。

It'll be very hard to get an uprising because Venezuela society has been significantly repressed to the point where folks are very wounded.

他们确实受到了伤害。

They're wounded.

长期的经济困境、物资短缺和排长队让他们精疲力尽。

They're exhausted from this long economic hardship, scarcities, long lines.

今天我们在加拉加斯的街头多次听到这样的说法。

We heard that a lot today on the street of Caracas.

我们与许多人交谈过，他们说现在正尽量以平静的心态面对日益紧张的局势。

We spoke with many, and they said they're just trying to take the heightened tensions as calmly as possible right now.

格雷格，还剩一分钟左右。

Greg, about a minute left.

但请提醒我们，如果美国想进行全面入侵，现有部队是否足够？

But just remind us, does The US have enough troops in place if they wanted to go ahead with a full scale invasion?

这实际上取决于任务目标。

Well, that would really depend on the mission.

美国在该区域部署了至少十几艘军舰，包括世界上最大的航空母舰杰拉尔德·R·福特号。

The US has at least a dozen dozen warships in the region, including the USS Gerald r Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier.

美国在海上和陆地总共部署了约15,000名士兵。

Altogether, The US has around 15,000 troops at sea and on land.

这些火力远超封锁油轮或打击涉嫌贩毒船只所需的力量。

So that's far more firepower than you'd need just to block an oil tanker or even attack these suspected drug trafficking boats.

此外，美国若计划如此，确实有能力对委内瑞拉实施持续空袭。

In addition, The US, could certainly carry out sustained air strikes against Venezuela if that's the plan.

如果特朗普考虑地面入侵，那么美国将需要一支庞大的部队，可能需要比目前驻扎更多的地面部队。

Now if Trump is considering a ground invasion, then The US would need a significant force, perhaps more in terms of ground troops that are there right now.

我们必须强调，特朗普在军事行动上一直刻意保持模糊态度。

We should stress that Trump has been intentionally vague about military action.

他愿意在其他地方使用空袭，但非常不愿意派遣美国地面部队。

He's been willing to use air strikes in other places, but he's been very reluctant to send US ground troops.

无论是在他的第一个任期还是目前这个任期，这一直是他的红线。

In either his first term or so far this term, that's been a red line for him.

确实是条红线。

Red line indeed.

这里是NPR驻华盛顿记者格雷格·迈里和驻里约热内卢记者克里·汗的报道。

NPR's Greg Myrie in Washington and Kerry Khan in Rio De Janeiro.

谢谢。

Thanks.

你也是。

You too.

当然。

Sure.

不客气。

You're welcome.

本期节目由泰勒·巴特拉姆制作，音频工程由泰德·米班负责。

This episode was produced by Tyler Bartlam with audio engineering from Ted Meebane.

由考特尼·多宁和克里斯托弗·因塔利亚塔编辑。

It was edited by Courtney Dorning and Christopher Intagliata.

我们的执行制片人是萨米·耶尼根。

Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan.

这里是NPR的《考虑一下》。

It's consider this from NPR.

我是玛丽·路易斯·凯利。

I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

在NPR的Wildcard播客中，杰米·李·柯蒂斯谈到了好莱坞掩盖年龄的压力

On NPR's wildcard podcast, Jamie Lee Curtis talks about Hollywood's pressure to cover

衰老问题

up aging.

你无法掩盖真相

You can't hide the truth.

我们就是我们本来的样子

We are who we are.

如果这最终成为我此生所代表的意义，那么我会觉得这一生过得很有价值

And if that's ultimately what I get to represent in this lifetime, then I will feel it was a life well lived.

观看或收听这场Wildcard对话，可通过NPR应用或YouTube上的NPR Wildcard频道

Watch or listen to that wildcard conversation on the NPR app or on YouTube at NPR wildcard.

人工智能专家Alvin Graylin在硅谷和中国科技界已有三十多年的工作经验

AI expert Alvin Graylin has worked in Silicon Valley and China's tech scene for over three decades.

谈到人工智能军备竞赛，他认为这是个重大错误

Talk of an AI arms race, he thinks it's a big mistake.

当我听到美国决策层中极具影响力的人士说出这种话时，感觉既有些无知又非常可怕。

When I hear this from people who are very influential in the decision making in America, it feels a little bit ignorant and very scary.

关于2026年及未来人工智能的构想。

Ideas about AI in 2026 and beyond.

请在NPR应用或你获取播客的任何平台收听TED Radio Hour节目。

Listen to the TED Radio Hour on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.