伊朗的下一任领导人会是谁？

当美国国家公共电台在德黑兰采访一位名叫沙迪的女性时，她已经嗓音嘶哑。

When NPR caught up with a woman named Shadi in Tehran, she was hoarse.

昨晚，我们从窗户大声呐喊，喊得我嗓子完全哑了，

Last night, we screamed so hard from the windows that I don't have a voice anymore,

她说。

she said.

我喊着：哈梅内伊死了，她说。

I screamed, Khamenei is killed, she said.

我从心底、从横膈膜最深处呐喊着。

I was shouting from the bottom of my heart from the depths of my diaphragm.

沙迪要求不透露她的全名，因为她担心自己会因接受西方媒体采访而被伊朗政权逮捕。

Shadi asked not to be identified by her full name because she was worried she could be arrested by Iran's regime for speaking to the Western media.

在伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊于美以空袭行动中被杀后，这一时刻出现了一个复杂的问题。

And that gets to a complication of this moment after the killing of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during The US Israeli airstrike campaign.

许多人对这位阿亚图拉的去世感到解脱或兴奋，但他所领导的政权依然完好无损。

Many people are relieved or exhilarated that the Ayatollah is dead, but the regime he led is still very much intact.

这不是个人专制。

This is not a personalized dictatorship.

这是一个具有多层次干部体系的意识形态制度。

This is a ideological system with a multilayered cadre.

这是外交关系委员会中东研究高级研究员雷·塔凯。

That's Ray Takay, senior fellow for Middle East Studies Council On Foreign Relations.

我认为你可以进行类似这次袭击的斩首行动，但该政权足够坚韧，能够填补流失的干部。

I think you can engage in decapitation exercises as was done in this particular strike, but the regime is resilient enough to be able to replace depleted cadres.

果然，在星期日，也就是哈梅内伊去世不到24小时后，伊朗外交部一名发言人告诉美国国家公共电台，伊朗很快将选出新领导人。

And sure enough, on Sunday, barely twenty four hours after Khamenei's death, a spokesperson for Iran's foreign ministry told NPR that Iran would soon have a new leader.

这是伊斯梅尔·巴盖。

Here's Ismail Bagai.

专家会议应选举新的最高领袖。

The Council of Experts should elect the new supreme leader.

我们希望这能在未来几天内完成，我希望如此。

We hope that that would be done within the next few days, I hope.

新领导人未必比上一任对伊朗人民更好，正如特朗普总统周二在椭圆形办公室所承认的那样。

There is no guarantee a new leader would be any better for the people of Iran than the last one, as president Trump acknowledged in the Oval Office on Tuesday.

我想最坏的情况就是我们这么做了，然后又冒出一个和前任一样糟糕的人。

I guess the worst case would be we do this and then somebody takes over who's as bad as the previous person.

对吧？

Right?

这种情况是有可能发生的。

That could happen.

想想这个。

Consider this.

伊朗的未来取决于一个关键问题。

The future of Iran hangs on an important question.

谁会是它的下一任领导人？

Who will be its next leader?

我们将探讨权力交接可能如何展开。

We will look at how succession could unfold.

来自NPR，我是斯科特·特特罗。

From NPR, I'm Scott Tetrault.

这是NPR的《深思》节目。

It's consider this from NPR.

如你所知，美国有一套详尽的继任顺序，以防总统在任内去世，从副总统开始，一直延续到最新设立的内阁职位——国土安全部部长。

As you may know, The United States has a detailed line of succession in case the president dies in office, starting with the vice president all the way down to the most recently created cabinet position, the Department of Homeland Security secretary.

伊朗宪法也规定了接替最高领袖的程序。

Iran's constitution lays out its own process for replacing a supreme leader.

为了探讨在炸弹持续轰炸该国的情况下，这一过程可能如何展开，我联系了密苏里科技大学的学者米尔扎德·巴鲁杰迪，他几十年来一直研究伊朗的统治阶层。

To talk through how it could play out as bombs continue to fall on the country, I called up Mirzad Baroujerdi, a scholar at Missouri University of Science and Technology who has studied Iran's ruling class for decades.

让我们先了解一下，在正常情况下这一过程是如何运作的。

Let's start just so we can understand how this would work in normal times.

在伊朗，公民会投票选举议会和总统，但最终权力掌握在最高领袖手中。

In Iran, citizens vote in elections for parliament and president, but ultimately power rests with the supreme leader.

最高领袖通常是如何产生的？

How is the supreme leader normally chosen?

对。

Right.

所以最高领袖是伊朗政治的核心。

So the supreme leader is the focal point of Iranian politics.

理论上，根据宪法，他应由88名宗教专家委员会成员批准。

And theoretically, based on the constitution, he is supposed to be approved by an 88 member of Assembly of Religious Experts.

这些成员主要是伊朗的老年人。

And these are mainly sort of elderly folks in Iran.

伊朗有个笑话，当有人问宗教专家委员会成员的平均年龄时，人们会说：‘已故’。

The joke in Iran is when you ask what is the average age of members of religious experts, people say deceased.

目前该委员会最年长的成员已经98岁了。

The oldest member of that council presently is 98 years old.

这些人本应决定下一任最高领袖的人选。

These folks are supposed to be deciding who the next Supreme Leader is.

就在今天早上，我们得知以色列和美国的炸弹摧毁了该委员会在圣城库姆的总部。

Just this morning, we got news that Israeli and American bombs have destroyed the headquarters of this assembly in the holy city of Rome.

所以我们还不清楚这个委员会将如何召开会议。

So we are not quite clear as to how this assembly is going to meet.

他们会在线投票吗？

Would they be voting online?

哈梅内伊大阿亚图拉是否向他们做出了未公开的建议。

Whether Ayatollah Khamenei had made any recommendation to them that was not made public.

因此，考虑到他们必须在战争时期面对如此严峻的挑战时做出决定，这确实是迄今为止最严重的权力交接危机。

So this is really the most serious crisis of succession considering the fact that they have to make a decision during war time with this type of challenges in front of

他们中的许多人似乎正成为美以军事行动的目标。

Many of them seem to be being targeted by US and Israeli military action.

所以，似乎他们聚在一起商议的基本前提变得极其困难。

So it seems like the the basic premise here of getting together to talk and meet seems incredibly difficult.

对。

Correct.

我们一直在讨论专家委员会。

We've been talking about the assembly of experts.

我想谈谈伊朗另一个权力核心，那就是革命卫队。

I wanna talk about another power setter in Iran, and that it is the Revolutionary Guard Corps.

你看到了什么？

What are you seeing?

考虑到当前巨大的权力真空和国家的不稳定性，你认为他们在这一时刻的角色是什么？

What are you thinking about what their role is in this moment given this massive power vacuum and given the instability in the country?

是的。

Yes.

革命卫队确实是必须应对由哈梅内伊去世所引发的任何潜在动荡、我们目前正在经历的整个权力过渡期，以及任何最终权力整合的机构。

So the Revolutionary Guards really is the body that must deal with any potential unrest sparked by Ayatollah Khamenei's death, the whole succession interlude that we are witnessing right now, and any eventual consolidation that must take place.

这假设政权能够幸存下来。

This is assuming that the regime survives.

这也是将损失最大的机构。

This is also the body that is going to be losing the most.

你知道，伊朗有一种军官经济的现象。

You know, there is a phenomenon of officers economy in Iran.

这些人通过规避制裁获得了丰厚的利益。

These folks have benefited handsomely from sanction busting.

因此，当前的问题是，他们将如何应对由专家会议选出的下一位最高领袖？

And so the question right now is that how will they deal with the next Supreme Leader chosen by that assembly of experts?

如果选出的人不合他们的心意，他们会行使否决权吗？

Will they exercise veto power if whoever is chosen is not to their liking?

或者，如果这个人被选中，他们是否会真正保持议程设置的权力，进而告诉一位缺乏经验的新人该如何扮演下一位最高领袖的角色？

Or if this person is chosen, will they really maintain agenda setting power and basically telling an unexperienced, you know, newbie how he should be conducting himself as the next Supreme Leader.

所以，是的，在这个关键时刻，伊斯兰革命卫队确实是需要关注的力量。

So, yes, IRGC or the Revolutionary Guard is really the force to look at at this critical moment.

关于最有可能接任最高领袖的人选，我们了解多少？关于他们的领导可能对伊朗未来意味着什么，我们还需要知道些什么？

What do we know about the most likely contenders for the role of supreme leader, and what do we need to know about them in terms of, you know, what what their leadership could mean for the future of Iran?

没错。

Right.

因此，由于领袖选拔过程非常不透明，这所有的一切都只是我们的猜测。

So again, because of the opaque process of selecting a leader, you know, this is all guessing on our part.

我会提到三位引起我关注的人选。

I will mention three individuals that are on my radar.

其中之一当然是霍梅尼的儿子，他无疑是这个职位的终极内部人士，但他从未担任过任何正式的选举或任命职务。

One is, of course, the son of Ayatollah Khamenei, who, you know, is sort of the ultimate insider for the job, but he has not really held any type of official elected or appointed offices.

由于他在神职等级中的资历较浅，他的当选也会震动神职人员和政治阶层的普通成员。

And because of his junior standing in the clerical hierarchy, his selection will also rattle the rank and files of the clerical and political class.

第二位是深受霍梅尼器重的阿里·雷扎·埃拉菲。

The second individual is a member who was very much favored Ayatollah by Khamenei by the name of Ali Reza Erafi.

此人曾被委以重任，包括负责全国所有的宗教神学院，这无疑是一项重要的政治和神职任务。

This guy was given, entrusted with important positions, including being in charge of all the religious seminaries in the country, which is, of course, a rather important political and clerical task.

他目前也是负责在下一任最高领袖选出前处理国家事务的三人委员会成员之一。

He is also currently a member of that three member council that are supposed to be taking care of issues confronting the country until the next Supreme Leader is chosen.

最后，我想提到一位前司法首脑，名叫萨迪格·拉里贾尼，他出身于一个声望显赫的家庭，他的兄弟目前担任国家安全顾问。

And finally, I would say a former head of the judiciary, a gentleman by the name Ayatollah Sadegh Larijani, He comes from a well established family and therefore his brother also currently is the national security adviser.

因此，他在宗教地位、家族背景以及与神职集团的联系方面都具备优势，这可能使他成为一个合适的人选。

So he has, you know, the sort of the pedigree in terms of his religious standing, etcetera, and family connections, ties to the clerical establishment that might make him a suitable candidate.

你曾经说过，如果政权能够幸存下来

You said at one point, if the regime survives

嗯。

Mhmm.

现在伊朗正面临着巨大的军事压力。

There is this tremendous military pressure being being put on Iran right now.

让我们详细谈谈，是什么会导致伊朗政权真正崩溃。

Walk us through what it would take for the regime to actually collapse in Iran.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，我们需要记住，伊朗其实并不是一个‘一弹即倒’的国家。

I think, you know, we need to keep in mind that Iran really was not a one bullet state.

即使在最高领袖和许多高级军事官员去世后，这个国家仍在继续运转。

We see that even after the demise of the supreme leader and many of the high military officials, country is still continuing.

他们仍在发射导弹等等。

They are firing missiles, etcetera.

法律与秩序仍然基本维持，政权尚未崩溃。

Law and order is still more or less there, and it hasn't collapsed yet.

我认为我们必须记住，要让一个政权垮台，必须有一个强大的反对力量，能够扮演替代政府的角色并接管政权等等。

I think we have to keep in mind that for a regime to collapse, you need to have a serious, you know, opposition force that is able to play the role of a, you know, rival government and take over, etcetera.

就目前而言，国内根本没有有组织的反对力量。

At this moment, as we speak, there is really no organized opposition inside the country.

伊朗的任何领土都不在反对派的控制之下。

No part of the Iranian territory is under the control of an opposition force.

尽管民众普遍不满，但这并非有组织或持续的反对运动。

And even though there is general popular discontent, this is not, you know, organized or sustained opposition.

在过去四十年里，这种抗议活动一直断断续续。

It has been very episodic over the last forty years.

这很有趣，尽管我们一再看到大规模抗议活动不断涌现。

That's interesting for all of the widespread protests that that we have seen rise up again and again.

但始终未能形成一个明确的反对派组织。

A clear opposition group has not been able to form.

没错。

That's right.

你知道，前沙阿的儿子在国内外都赢得了很多同情。

You know, the the the the son of the former shah, you know, has a lot of sympathy both outside and inside the country.

当然，作为伊朗数千年君主制的继承者，他拥有象征性的资本。

He has, you know, of course, a symbolic capital as the inheritor of that thousands of years of monarchy in Iran.

但至少到目前为止，我们并没有看到他具备足够的组织能力来改变现实或试图统一反对派。

But at least so far, have not really seen that he has the organizational muscle to be able to change the facts on the ground or try to unify the opposition.

所以这似乎是一个劣势。

So that seems to be a liability.

此外，人们担心我们可能会看到类似委内瑞拉情景的重演，即特朗普政府试图拉拢革命卫队的某位成员，与其达成协议，而不是让这个拥有九千万人口、地理面积超过伊拉克和阿富汗总和的国家陷入真正混乱。

Furthermore, there are concerns as to whether we might see more or less a repeat of the Venezuelan scenario, meaning the Trump administration reaching to one of those members of the Revolutionary Guards, etcetera, and trying to come to terms rather than, you know, see the country really go into a chaos considering that it's a country of 90,000,000 people and geographically larger than Iraq and Afghanistan combined.

这是《后革命伊朗：政治手册》的合著者、密苏里科技大学文理与教育学院副院长米尔扎德·巴鲁切迪。

That is Mirzad Barucherdi, the coauthor of post revolutionary Iran, a political handbook, and vice provost and dean of the college of arts, sciences, and education at Missouri S and T.

非常感谢您帮助我们理解这一切。

Thank you so much for helping us understand all of this.

谢谢邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

本集内容由NPR的露丝·谢尔克报道。

This episode contained reporting from NPR's Ruth Sherlock.

本集由康纳·多诺万制作，音频工程由贝基·布朗负责。

It was produced by Connor Donevan with audio engineering by Becky Brown.

本集由科特尼·多宁编辑，执行制片人为萨米·耶尼贡。

It was edited by Courtney Dorning, and our executive producer is Sami Yenigun.

这是NPR的《请考虑一下》。

It's consider this from NPR.

我是斯科特·德特罗。

I'm Scott Dettrow.