为什么美国与伊朗处于战争状态？

自美国和以色列对伊朗发动攻击以来，特朗普政府给出了多种理由，解释为何美国如今处于战争状态。

In the days since The United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran, the Trump administration has given a wide range of reasons why The US is now at war.

以下是特朗普总统在周六早些时候向伊朗人民发表的视频讲话。

Here's president Trump in an early video message on Saturday addressing the Iranian people.

当我们完成时，就接管你们的政府。

When we are finished, take over your government.

它将属于你们去夺取。

It will be yours to take.

这可能是你们几代人中唯一的机会。

This will be probably your only chance for generations.

到了周一早上，他的国防部长皮特·海格塞斯给出了不同的说法。

By Monday morning, his defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, was giving a different reason.

这并不是所谓的政权更迭战争，但政权确实已经更迭，世界也因此变得更好。

This is not a so called regime change war, but the regime sure did change, and the world is better off for it.

特朗普的首次公开表态——并非预先录制的社交媒体视频——直到袭击开始两天后才出现。

Trump's first public comments, not prerecorded videos on social media, didn't come until two days after the attacks began.

在白宫荣誉勋章仪式上，他列出了四个目标。

At a White House Medal of Honor ceremony, he listed four objectives.

政权更迭并不在其中。

Regime change was not one of them.

首先，我们正在摧毁伊朗的导弹能力，你正看到这一情况每小时都在发生，以及他们生产全新且高性能导弹的能力。

First, we're destroying Iran's missile capabilities, and you see that happening on an hourly basis and their capacity to produce brand new ones and pretty good ones they make.

其次，我们正在彻底消灭他们的海军。

Second, we're annihilating their navy.

我们已经击沉了十艘舰船。

We've knocked out already 10 ships.

它们现在沉在海底。

They're at the bottom of the sea.

第三，我们确保世界上头号恐怖主义支持者永远无法获得核武器。

Third, we're ensuring that the world's number one sponsor of terror can never obtain a nuclear weapon.

他们永远不可能拥有核武器。

Never gonna have a nuclear weapon.

我从一开始就说过。

I said that from the beginning.

他们永远不可能拥有核武器。

They're never gonna have a nuclear weapon.

他们原本通过一项我们国家愚蠢签署的协议，正合法地走向拥有核武器。

They were on the road to getting one legitimately through a deal that was signed foolishly by our country.

最后，我们确保伊朗政权无法继续为境外的恐怖主义武装提供武器、资金和指导。

And finally, we're ensuring that the Iranian regime cannot continue to arm, fund, and direct terrorist armies outside of their borders.

想想看，政权更迭、核计划、恐怖主义——美国究竟为何与伊朗开战？

Consider this, regime change, the nuclear program, terrorism, why exactly is The US at war with Iran?

来自NPR，我是斯科特·德特罗。

From NPR, I'm Scott Dettrow.

NPR新闻速报是您获取美国对伊朗军事行动每小时更新的播客来源。

NPR News Now is your podcast source for updates every hour on The US military action in Iran.

特朗普总统称之为战争，并表示目标是政权更迭。

President Trump calls it a war and says the goal is regime change.

他还表示，美军可能遭受伤亡。

He also says US casualties are possible.

由于新闻变化迅速，请收听NPR新闻速报。

With news changing rapidly, listen to NPR News Now.

新集数每小时整点在NPR应用或您收听播客的平台上线。

New episodes at the top of every hour on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

随着预测市场的兴起，你可以对任何事情下注，从天气到特朗普总统下次记者会会说什么。

With the rise of prediction markets, you can bet on anything from weather to what president Trump will say in his next press conference.

我不是

I'm not

特朗普的粉丝，尽管我大部分时间都在听他讲话并追踪他的动向。

a fan of Trump, though I do spend most of my day listening to him and tracking what he's doing.

在周日故事中，谁在这些应用上大获全胜，谁又在亏损？

On the Sunday story, who's winning big on these apps and who's losing?

来自《Up First》播客的周日故事，现在就在NPR应用上收听。

The Sunday story from the Up First podcast, listen now on the NPR app.

这是来自NPR的报道。

It's consider this from NPR.

特朗普总统今天就美国对伊朗持续进行的军事打击公开发表了讲话。

President Trump spoke publicly about the ongoing US military strikes in Iran today.

在白宫，他表示，此刻是打击伊朗核武器计划的‘最后最佳机会’。

At the White House, he said this moment was the, quote, last best chance to strike at Iran's nuclear weapons program.

值得一提的是，去年总统曾称，美国的军事打击已彻底摧毁了伊朗的核武器计划。

Last year, it's worth noting the president said the program had been completely decimated by US military strikes.

国防部长佩特·海格塞斯和参联会主席丹·凯恩今天也在五角大楼向记者通报了军事行动及其目标，并试图向美国民众解释为何国家突然陷入战争。

Defense secretary Pete Hegseth and chairman of the joint chief of staff Dan Kane also spoke today at the Pentagon updating reporters on the military campaign and its objectives and trying to explain to Americans why the country is suddenly at war.

我们现在邀请到NPR五角大楼记者汤姆·鲍曼和NPR白宫记者弗兰科·奥多内兹。

We are joined now by NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman and NPR White House correspondent Franco Ordonez.

你好。

Hi there.

嗨，斯科特。

Hey, Scott.

嘿

Hey,

斯科特。

Scott.

弗兰科，我先问你。

Franco, I'm gonna start with you.

这是总统除了社交媒体发帖之外的首次发声。

This is the first time we have heard from the president beyond posts on social media.

我们学到了什么？

What have we learned?

是的。

Yeah.

他重复了很多我们之前已经听过的内容，但他确实表示，行动将持续四到五周，但也可能更久。

He echoed a lot of what we've already heard from him, but he did say that operations would continue for four to five weeks, but they could actually go on longer.

他还夸耀说，行动实际上比预期进度更快，因为原本预计需要数周才能消灭伊朗军事领导层，但这一目标在首轮打击中，甚至在最初几个小时内就已达成。

And he boasted that operations were actually ahead of schedule because they had expected it would take weeks to eliminate military leadership, but that was actually accomplished in the first set of strikes, really within the first few hours.

特朗普还提供了更多细节，说明了他认为在停止攻击前必须实现的具体目标。

And Trump gave a bit more detail on the specific objectives that he says need to be met before stopping the attacks.

一共有四个目标。

There are four of them.

第一个是摧毁伊朗的弹道导弹能力。

One is destroying Iran's ballistic missile capabilities.

第二个是摧毁他们的海军。

Two is taking out their navy.

他指出，自空袭开始以来，他们已经击沉了10艘舰船。

He noted that they've already sunk 10 ships since the strikes began.

第三个是确保伊朗永远无法拥有核武器。

Three is ensuring that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon.

当然，他之前说过，这次又重申了，伊朗的核计划已被彻底摧毁，但伊朗正试图重新启动该计划。

Of course, he has said, and he said again, that the program was obliterated, but that Iran was trying to get it going again.

他还指责该政权在谈判期间对美国玩弄手段。

He also accused the regime of playing games with The US during those negotiations.

我们以为已经达成协议了，但他们后来退出了。

And we thought we had a deal, but then they backed out.

他们又回来了，我们以为又达成协议了，结果他们又退出了。

And they came back, and we thought we had a deal, and they backed out.

我说，你没法跟这些人打交道。

I said, you can't deal with these people.

你得用正确的方式处理。

You gotta do it the right way.

最后，斯科特，第四个原因是确保伊朗不再资助像真主党和哈马斯这样在该地区发动袭击的直接武装代理组织。

And finally, Scott, fourth reason, ensuring that Iran does not continue to fund direct militant proxy groups like Hezbollah and Hamas that fight across the region.

好的。

Okay.

汤姆，今天五角大楼的新闻发布会怎么说？

And, Tom, what about the Pentagon press conference today?

这告诉我们什么？

What did that tell us?

国防部长佩特·赫格塞斯和参联会主席丹·凯恩将军再次向媒体简报，谈到要摧毁伊朗的导弹、核计划和海军，正如弗兰科所说。

Well, defense secretary Pete Hegseth and joint chief chairman, general Dan Cain briefed the press, again, talking about taking out, as Franco said, taking out Iranian missiles, its nuclear program, and navy.

目前已有六名美国士兵在科威特被伊朗导弹击毙，另有多达18人受伤。

Now there already have been six American soldiers killed in Kuwait by an Iranian missile and as many as 18 wounded.

凯恩将军表示，这只是此次行动的开始，还会有更多伤亡发生。

And general Kane said this is just the beginning of this operation and also to expect more casualties.

我们来听一下。

Let's listen.

这不是一个一夜之间就能完成的行动。

This is not a single overnight operation.

中央司令部和联合部队所承担的军事目标需要一些时间才能实现，有些任务将非常艰难且艰苦。

The military objectives at CENTCOM and the joint force have been tasked with will take some time to achieve and in some cases will be difficult and gritty work.

我们预计还将遭受更多损失。

We expect to take additional losses.

和以往一样，我们将努力将美军的伤亡降到最低。

And as always, we will work to minimize US losses.

但正如部长所说，这是大规模作战行动。

But as the secretary said, this is major combat operations.

现在这是从战术角度看待，斯科特，但我们仍然无法看清整体的前进方向。

Now this is a tactical look, Scott, but we're still not getting a sense of the overall way ahead.

哈格斯塔和其他人说这不是政权更迭，但这是用枪口实现的政权更迭。

Hagstadt and others said it's not regime change, but this is regime change by the barrel of a gun.

国会山工作人员已经接受了简报。

Hill staffers were briefed.

我们在问，为什么是现在？

We're asking, well, why now?

什么是迫在眉睫的威胁？

What is the imminent threat?

他们没有得到令人满意的答复，我听说国会议员们也将接受简报，并很可能提出同样的问题。

They did not get a satisfactory answer, and I'm told lawmakers will get a briefing and will likely have the same questions as well.

这里仍然有太多问题。

There are still so many questions here.

我很好奇。

I'm curious.

从简报中有什么特别引起你注意的吗？

Did anything really stand out to you from the briefing?

是的。

Yeah.

海格斯秘书长表示没有交战规则，我了解到一些军方人士对此感到愤怒。

Secretary Heggs has said there are no rules of engagement, and I'm told some people military people are outraged by that.

确实存在保护平民的规则，特别是当你投下，你知道，一千磅的炸弹，以及从舰船和飞机上发射导弹时。

There there are rules to protect civilians, especially when you're dropping, you know, thousand pound bombs and missiles fired from ships and aircraft.

有报道称，一枚美国导弹摧毁了伊朗的一所女子学校，造成一百多人死亡。

There are reports that a US missile destroyed a girl's school in Iran, killing more than a 100.

一名军方发言人发表声明称，他们正在调查这些报道，并补充说：'保护平民对我们来说至关重要。'

A military spokesman put out a statement saying they're looking into those reports, adding, quote, the protection of civilians is of utmost importance to us.

另外我想指出一点，政府对这场持续的袭击提供了不同的理由，包括伊朗很快将拥有能够打击美国本土的导弹能力。

Now one other thing I'd to point out, the administration has offered differing rationales for this ongoing attack, including the Iranians would soon have the ability to have a missile capable of reaching The United States.

国防情报局报告称，他们可能在2035年前建造出能够抵达美国的导弹，但如今，这一时间表已经推迟。

The Defense Intelligence Agency has reported, that they could possibly build one that could reach The United States by 2035, but now, of course, that timeline is off.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，弗兰科，我要回白宫了，而你。

So, Franco, I'm gonna go back to the White House and you.

除了总统在社交媒体上发帖外，整个周末几乎没有一位政府官员进行过任何公开沟通。

Beyond the president posting on social media, really, there was very little communication by any administration officials over the weekend.

这不寻常吗？

Is that unusual?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这非常不寻常。

I mean, it's very unusual.

我的意思是，历史上，总统们通常会向美国民众阐明立场。

I mean, historically, presidents would often, you know, make a case to the American people.

他们会解释为什么此时此刻必须采取这样的行动，例如。

They'd explain why this needed to happen at this moment, for example.

但这位总统并没有这么做。

But, you know, this president didn't do that.

我们得到的只是对危险更模糊的解释。

You know, we got really more vague explanations of the dangers.

在国情咨文演讲中，他把一些自己和政府的担忧混在一起说了，却没有提出任何计划。

You know, at the State of the Union address, he kind of jumbled together some of those concerns that that he has and the administration has, but no plan.

总统也没有寻求国会的支持，甚至没有请求授权发动战争。

The president also did not seek backing from congress or even ask for authorization to go to war.

这本周将在国会山引发一场激烈的辩论。

And that's really gonna be a debate this week on Capitol Hill.

自从空袭开始以来，斯科特，白宫就严格控制了信息发布。

Ever since the strike started, Scott, the White House has really just clamped down on messaging.

你知道，除了偶尔接受几家选定媒体的电话采访外，特朗普几乎只回答了少数几个关于他计划的问题。

You know, except for some short phone interviews with select media outlets, Trump has really only taken a few questions about his plans.

镜头前一个都没有，

None on camera,

顺便说一下。

by the way.

是的。

Mhmm.

直到今天，我们见到他的唯一时刻，就是他上下飞机、返回白宫的时候。

And until today, the only time we saw him was, you know, getting on and off the plane and returning to the White House.

坦白说，政府的表态一直非常混乱。

I mean, frankly, the messaging has just been so mixed.

例如，他告诉《纽约邮报》，如果有必要，他不排除向伊朗派遣美军地面部队。

He told the New York Post, for example, that he's not ruling out sending US ground troops in Iran if they were necessary.

但今天，他并没有像以前那样呼吁伊朗民众起义推翻政权。

And then today, he did not say, that he's calling for Iranians to rise up and take over the country as he has before.

让我们回到关键问题上。

Let's get back to the key question here.

我们是否更清楚为什么现在采取行动的依据，或者导致这些打击行动的内部讨论细节？

Do we know more about the rationale for why now or more on the internal deliberations that led to these strikes?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这一切很大程度上都是基于伊朗对美国构成即时威胁、迫在眉睫的威胁这一论点。

I mean, so much of this is based on the argument that Iran poses an immediate threat, an imminent threat to The United States.

但总统并没有提供任何确凿的证据来支持这一点。

But the president has not presented any hard evidence of that.

而且，他再次不许任何人追问这些证据。

And just again, he's not letting anyone ask about that evidence.

我的意思是，即使今天他在镜头前首次公开发言时，也没有回答任何问题，这一点，斯科特，你比任何人都更清楚。

I mean, even today, while his first public comments in front of cameras, he didn't take any questions, which, Scott, you will know better than anybody.

这对这位总统来说非常不寻常。

That is very unusual for this president.

对。

Yes.

他总是会回答问题。

He's always taking questions.

总是很乐意。

Always happy to.

而且，你知道，有很多问题，尤其是未来的计划是什么？

And, you know, there are many questions, especially what is the plan going forward?

一旦所有这些基础设施被摧毁，他们打算做什么？

What are they gonna do once all this infrastructure is destroyed?

他根本没有说明长期计划是什么。

Mean, he doesn't explain what is the plan for the long term.

我的意思是，计划真的是把这一切都留给伊朗人民去处理吗？

I mean, is the plan really just to leave this all to the Iranian people to deal with?

汤姆·鲍曼，我再回到你那里，关于这个周末许多关键领导人被空袭击毙后，周围的情况如何，这引出了另一个关键问题：现在谁在管理这个国家？

Tom Bowman, I'm gonna go back to you about conditions inside around so many key leaders were were decapitated in strikes this weekend, which leads to another key question, who is running the country?

美国军方官员有对此作出回应吗？

Was that addressed by US military officials?

嗯，它

Well, it

军事领导人并没有对此作出回应，当然他们负责战术层面的事务，比如目标等。

was not addressed by military leaders who, of course, are in charge of the tactical pictures, you know, targets and so forth.

我们并不清楚谁在掌权。

We do don't have a good sense of who's in charge.

在新最高领袖任命之前，由一个三人领导委员会掌权，预计未来几天内将任命新领袖。

A three person leadership council holds power until a new supreme leader is named especially expected in the coming days.

是的。

Mhmm.

我的问题是，你们两位都报道过许多类似的故事。

I mean, question for both of you.

你们两位都报道过许多类似的故事。

You have both covered a lot of similar storylines to this.

你们觉得这件事会如何发展？

Any sense of how this plays out?

有退出的途径吗？

Are there off ramps?

我们还能看到谈判吗？

Could we still see negotiations?

这会把美国军队拖入一场持久冲突吗？

Could this pull the US military into a protracted conflict?

我的意思是，我们都在回想过去几十年的伊拉克战争。

I mean, we're all thinking about the the recent Iraq wars in previous decades.

伊朗领导人表示他们不会进行谈判。

Well, Iranian leaders are saying they will not negotiate.

他们会继续抵抗，继续发射导弹。

They'll continue to resist, continue to attack with missiles.

一位退休的高级军官告诉我，担忧在于伊朗的导弹数量超过了美国的拦截弹。

A retired senior officer told me the concern is Iranians have more missiles than The US has interceptors.

而且，局势还在蔓延。

Also, this is spreading.

美国已经对伊拉克境内受伊朗支持的民兵组织发动了空袭，未来在伊拉克及其他地区可能还会看到更多类似行动。

Already, The US has mounted airstrikes against Iranian backed militias in Iraq, and you could see more of that in Iraq and elsewhere.

目前很难判断这场冲突是否会像伊拉克和阿富汗那样演变成持久战。

It's hard at this point to say whether or not this will be a protracted conflict like you saw in Iraq and Afghanistan.

美国军队不太可能前往伊朗，否则将引发一场漫长而血腥的战斗。

There's no sense any US troops will be heading to Iran, which, of course, would lead to a long and bloody fight.

嗯。

Mhmm.

是的。

Yeah.

此外，还有一个关键问题，即这场冲突如何影响即将进入白热化的中期选举政治局势。

And there's really the question about how this plays out politically as well with the midterm campaign season about to kick into high gear.

我的意思是，如果演变成持久战，共和党人会感到担忧，因为他们希望将焦点转向经济。

I mean, if it turns into the protracted conflict, Republicans are worried because they want to shift toward the economy.

在巴黎，感谢弗朗科·奥多内兹和汤姆·鲍曼。

In Paris, Franco Ordonez and Tom Bowman, thanks to you both.

不客气。

You're welcome.

这个

This

本集由劳伦·霍奇斯和凯伦·扎莫拉制作，音频制作由泰德·尼贝负责。

episode was produced by Lauren Hodges and Karen Zamora with audio engineering by Ted Niebe.

本集由安德鲁·苏斯曼、帕特里克·贾雷南·瓦达南和考特尼·多宁编辑。

It was edited by Andrew Sussman, Patrick Jaren Wadananen, and Courtney Dorning.

我们的执行制片人是萨米·叶尼根。

Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan.

这是来自NPR的Consider This。

It's consider this from NPR.

我是斯科特·德特罗克斯。

I'm Scott Detreaux.

格陵兰表示，它不对外出售。

Greenland has said it is not for sale.

丹麦表示，它甚至无权合法出售格陵兰。

Denmark has said it can't even legally sell Greenland.

特朗普是否能够、愿意或应该试图控制或购买一个并不想被出售的领土，这是一个问题。

And whether Trump can or will or should try to control or purchase a territory that does not wanna be sold is one question.

但在《星球金钱》节目中，我们更感兴趣的是我们是如何走到这一步的，以及我们如何优雅地走出这一局面。

But on planet money, we are more interested in how we even got to this moment and how we might gracefully get out of it.

请在NPR应用程式或您收听播客的任何平台收听《星球金钱》。

Listen to planet money on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.