为什么蒂姆·凯恩再次推动战争权力决议

所以第三次会带来好运吗？

So could the third time be the charm?

美国和伊朗正在日内瓦进行第三次核谈判，这次会谈可能达成协议，也可能以暴力告终。

The United States and Iran are in Geneva for, yes, a third round of nuclear talks, could end in a deal or with violence.

他们想达成协议，但我们还没听到那些秘密的承诺。

They wanna make a deal, but we haven't heard those secret words.

我们永远不会拥有核武器。

We will never have a nuclear weapon.

这是特朗普总统在周二国情咨文演讲中的画面。

That's president Trump during Tuesday's State of the Union address.

我倾向于通过外交手段解决这个问题。

My preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy.

但有一件事是确定的：我绝不会允许世界上头号恐怖主义支持国——他们毫无疑问是第一——拥有核武器。

But one thing is certain, I will never allow the world's number one sponsor of terror, which they are by far, to have a nuclear weapon.

绝不能让这种情况发生。

Can't let that happen.

我的意思是，我完全支持政权更迭，但我觉得你不能只在一次演讲中宣布这一点，就指望所有人都会支持你。

I mean, I'm totally in favor of regime change, but I think you can't just announce it in one speech and then expect that everybody will line up behind you.

我认为这可能是他即将犯下的一个政治错误，但这正是他行事的一贯风格。

I think this is a political mistake he may be about to make, but but it's typical of the way he proceeds.

这是约翰·博尔顿，他现在是特朗普总统的直言不讳的批评者。

This is John Bolton, who is now a vocal critic of president Trump.

他曾担任特朗普第一任期内的国家安全顾问。

He once served as national security adviser during Trump's first term.

他还曾担任过美国驻联合国大使。

He's also a former UN ambassador.

他告诉NPR，他认为特朗普并没有向美国人民充分论证开战的必要性，因为他觉得特朗普自己都不确定是否真的想要战争。

And he told NPR that he didn't think Trump made a case for war to the American people because he thinks Trump is not even sure he wants war.

我认为特朗普也未必已经下定决心，无论是关于使用武力的目标，还是武力规模的具体程度。

I don't think Trump has necessarily made up his mind, either what his objective is in a possible use of military force or what the quantum of that force would be.

与此同时，并非国会所有人都认同特朗普可以在未经议员批准的情况下对伊朗采取军事行动。

Meanwhile, not everyone in congress is okay with the idea that president Trump could proceed with military action against Iran without first seeking the sign off of lawmakers.

想想这个。

Consider this.

国会议员们已在众议院和参议院提交了战争权力决议，旨在限制特朗普总统在未经国会批准的情况下对伊朗发动攻击。

Members of congress have filed war powers resolutions in both the house and senate to restrict president Trump from attacking Iran without congressional approval.

我们采访了推动这些决议的议员之一——弗吉尼亚州的民主党参议员蒂姆·凯恩。

We speak with one of the lawmakers pushing the resolutions, Democratic senator Tim Kaine of Virginia.

这里是NPR，我是陈尔莎。

From NPR, I'm Elsa Cheng.

NPR新闻速递是您获取美国对伊朗军事行动每小时更新的播客来源。

NPR News Now is your podcast source for updates every hour on The US military action in Iran.

特朗普总统称这是一场战争，并表示目标是政权更迭。

President Trump calls it a war and says the goal is regime change.

他还表示，美军可能面临伤亡。

He also says US casualties are possible.

由于新闻瞬息万变，请收听NPR新闻速递。

With news changing rapidly, listen to NPR News Now.

新集数每小时整点在NPR应用或您收听播客的任何平台上线。

New episodes at the top of every hour on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

格陵兰表示，它不出售。

Greenland has said it is not for sale.

丹麦表示，它甚至没有法律权利出售格陵兰。

Denmark has said it can't even legally sell Greenland.

无论特朗普是否能够、是否应该尝试控制或购买一个不愿被出售的领土，这是一个问题。

And whether Trump can or will or should try to control or purchase a territory that does not wanna be sold is one question.

但在《Planet Money》节目中，我们更感兴趣的是：我们是如何走到这一步的，以及我们如何优雅地走出困境。

But on Planet Money, we are more interested in how we even got to this moment and how we might gracefully get out of it.

请在NPR应用或您收听播客的任何平台收听《Planet Money》。

Listen to Planet Money on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

这是来自NPR的《Consider This》。

It's Consider This from NPR.

这是美国宪法第一条第八款第十一项，它赋予国会而非总统宣战的权力。

It's an article one section eight clause 11 where The US constitution empowers congress, not the president, to declare war.

当然，任何熟悉美国近期历史的人都知道，美国总统在没有获得国会事先批准的情况下，已经授权了大量军事行动。

Of course, anyone versed in recent US history will know that US presidents have authorized plenty of military action without congress first signing off.

一个及时的例子是，去年美国袭击了伊朗的三个核设施，加入了以色列对抗该国的行列。

One timely example, last year, The US struck three nuclear sites in Iran, joining Israel in its fight against the country.

目前，美国已在中东大规模部署军事力量，本周正与伊朗进行外交谈判。

Right now, The US has massively built up military forces in The Middle East, and this week, it's conducting diplomatic talks with Iran.

国会议员们正试图阻止特朗普总统在未经国会批准的情况下采取行动，其中一位是来自弗吉尼亚州的民主党参议员蒂姆·凯恩。

Members of congress are trying to prevent president Trump from acting without congressional approval, and one of them is democratic senator Tim Kaine of Virginia.

欢迎回来。

Welcome back.

艾尔莎，很高兴能和你一起。

Elsa, great to be with you.

谢谢。

Thanks.

很高兴有你。

Great to have you.

那么，你们预计什么时候对这项决议进行投票？

So when do you expect to vote on this resolution?

Elsa，这将在下周初进行。

Elsa, it will happen early next week.

就在我和你谈话的时候，各方还在进行谈判，但当我们下周一恢复会议时，会在下周头几天内进行表决。

Even as I sit here talking to you, it's being negotiated, but it will be in the in the first couple of days of next week when we're back in session Monday.

好的。

Okay.

但我必须问一下，因为之前关于战争权力的决议，比如针对委内瑞拉和去年对伊朗的空袭，都失败了。

But I have to ask because previous votes on war powers resolutions, like over Venezuela, over last year's strikes on Iran, they have failed.

几乎所有的共和党人都投了反对票。

Almost all Republicans have voted against them.

那么，为什么你觉得这次的情况会有所不同？

So why does this moment feel any different to you?

首先，无论这项决议成功与否，我们都不应该在未经投票的情况下开战，国会议员应当为此负责。

Well, first, whether they succeed or fail, we shouldn't be at war without a vote, and so members of congress should be held accountable.

其次，我们学到了经验，特别是在委内瑞拉投票中，参议院实际上已经获得了足够的票数——民主党加上一些共和党人最初支持，随后又有几位共和党人在后续投票中改变了主意。

Secondly, we learn, and and particularly in the Venezuela vote, in the senate, we actually got enough votes, Democrat plus some Republicans initially, and then a few Republicans got convinced to to change their minds in some subsequent votes.

是的。

Mhmm.

但这改变了总统的行为。

But it changed the president's behavior.

第一次投票后几小时内，他就取消了对委内瑞拉的第二次打击，并最终同意举行公开听证会，让卢比奥国务卿前来说明实际任务是什么、目标何在、成功又该如何定义。

After the first vote within a few hours, he canceled a second strike on Venezuela, and he also agreed finally to have a public hearing to send secretary Rubio up to discuss what in fact was the mission, what were the goals, what would success look like.

因此，尽管我们最终未能成功，但我从这次努力中学到了重要一课：迫使就这些问题进行投票和辩论，能让公众更清楚地了解情况，让公众来判断这些行动是否符合国家利益，甚至能改变政府的行为。

And so I very much learned from that effort, even though we ultimately were not successful, that forcing a vote and a debate on these matters brings it more to the public's attention where the public can decide whether emissions in the national interest, and it it can even change the behavior of the administration.

但我还想分享一位民主党同僚的声明。

But I wanna share a statement from a fellow Democrat.

这是来自新泽西州的国会议员乔什·戈瑟默，他反对众议院中一项类似的战争权力决议。

This is congressman Josh Gothamer of New Jersey who's opposed to an equivalent war powers resolution in the house.

他写道：‘这项决议将限制应对真实且不断变化的威胁所需的灵活性，并在危险时刻传递出软弱的信号。’

And he writes, quote, this resolution would restrict the flexibility needed to respond to real and evolving threats and risks signaling weakness at a dangerous moment.

你对同事的这个观点怎么看？

What do you say to your colleague there about that?

在武装部队委员会和外交关系委员会，我经常在保密设施里听取有关风险的汇报，但我现在根本听不到任何关于伊朗对美国构成足够严重威胁的信息，以至于我们应当允许总统在没有国会辩论的情况下派我们的子女上战场。

On the Armed Services Committee and the Foreign Relations Committee, and I'm in the classified facility all the time hearing about risks, and I hear nothing whatsoever about any risks right now that Iran poses to The United States that are at a sufficient level that we should allow a president to take our sons and daughters into war without a debate by congress.

在国情咨文演讲中，特朗普总统称伊朗正在研发可能很快就能抵达美国的导弹，并且伊朗正在重启其核计划。

Well, during the State of the Union address, president Trump said that Iran is developing missiles that may soon be able to reach The US and that Iran is restarting its nuclear program.

特朗普政府向像你这样的国会议员提供了多少关于这些说法的证据？

How much has the Trump administration shared evidence of those claims with lawmakers like you?

我们分别来看这两点。

Well, let's take both.

那么关于核计划呢？

So how about the nuclear program?

首先，我们曾通过一项与盟友、包括中国、俄罗斯和伊朗这样的对手达成的外交协议，对伊朗的核计划进行管控。

First, we had controlled Iran's nuclear program by a diplomatic deal that we entered into with our allies, with adversaries like China and Russia and Iran.

特朗普总统撕毁了这项协议。

President Trump tore up the deal.

特朗普总统在以色列夏季为期十二天的轰炸行动后，动用美国资产轰炸了伊朗的核设施，并声称伊朗的核计划已被彻底摧毁。

President Trump, after a twelve day bombing campaign by Israel over the summer, used US assets to bomb Iranian nuclear sites and claimed that the Iranian nuclear program was obliterated.

那只是六个月前的事。

That was just six months ago.

所以现在，他们的核计划突然变得如此危险，以至于我们连在国会进行辩论和投票都不行了吗？

So now all of a sudden, their nuclear program poses such a threat that we can't even have a debate and vote in congress?

这毫无道理。

It makes no sense.

关于导弹，嗯。

With respect to the missiles Mhmm.

他们正在开发导弹，未来某天可能用于攻击美国。

They are developing missiles, which they may use at some time against The United States.

这里面有太多假设，而我们拥有的压倒性优势是伊朗心知肚明的。

There's so many hypotheticals in there, and the overmatch we have is such that Iran knows this.

如果他们真的对美国使用导弹——而他们从未这样做过——那对他们自己将是灾难性的。

If they were to use a missile against The United States, which they haven't, it would be a catastrophe for them.

好的。

Okay.

但基于你目前对伊朗局势以及他们可能对美国构成的军事威胁的了解，你希望美军此时采取什么行动？

But given what you know now about the situation in Iran and whatever threat they do or might pose to The US militarily, what would you want to see the US military do at this point?

在你看来，现在有什么行动是合理的吗？

Is there anything justifiable in your mind right now?

我会说，应该为该地区国家提供防御支持，但我们不应再让我们的孩子卷入另一场中东战争——毕竟过去二十五年的中东战争给这个国家和该地区带来的成果微乎其微。

I would say provide defense support to nations in the region, but we shouldn't commit our own children to yet another war in The Middle East when twenty five years of war in The Middle East has produced so little for this country and so little for the region.

好的。

Okay.

正如我们提到的，目前有一支美国代表团正在日内瓦与伊朗进行谈判。

As we mentioned, there is a US delegation in Geneva right now in talks with Iran.

关于国会就限制总统权力展开的辩论，你是否担心这会削弱美国在这些外交谈判中的筹码？

What about concerns that this debate in congress about limiting presidential power, what about concerns that that might reduce The US's leverage in those diplomatic talks?

他们可能会吗？

Could they?

嗯，你知道，战争是好主意还是坏主意。

Well, you know, a war is a good idea or a bad idea.

如果这是个坏主意，我认为你不应该虚张声势，试图在谈判中取得优势。

And if it's a bad idea, I don't think you should bluff it to try to, you know, get the upper hand in a negotiation.

在我看来，这种情况下的战争是个坏主意。

It's a bad idea in this case, in my view.

但正是由于今天仍在进行这些讨论，尽管我的决议本周末就可以投票，我们还是决定推迟几天，可能下周再进行更为合适。

That but but the fact of the discussions even today is one of the reasons why even though my resolution was ripe for voting this week, we decided a few days out in the future, likely next week would be preferable.

让这些谈判继续进行吧。

Let let that negotiation proceed.

是的。

Yeah.

让我们尽一切努力，像十年前那样，寻求外交解决方案，避免战争的必要。

Let's do all we can to do what we did ten years ago and find a diplomatic deal to avoid the need for war.

你反对特朗普政府声称拥有本应属于国会的宪法权力。

You oppose the Trump administration's claiming of powers that you believe belong to congress constitutionally.

你也反对战争，反对对伊朗发动战争，以及伊朗政权的镇压行为。

You also oppose war, war with Iran, and the repression by the regime in Iran.

那么，在对待伊朗政权的问题上，你更倾向于的更大方向是什么？

So then what is your larger preferred path forward here when it comes to the the regime there?

好吧，你看。

Well, look.

我认为，我们所拥有的工具——制裁和其他手段——对政权造成了巨大影响，使政权陷入了类似2016年时的境地。

I do think the tools that we have, the sanctions tools and others have made a huge impact on the regime, and it's put the regime in a place as was the case in in 2016.

该政权坐到谈判桌前，达成核协议，并不是因为战争的威胁。

The regime came to the table and negotiated the nuclear deal not because of the threat of war.

真正起作用的是制裁对伊朗经济造成的冲击。

What was real was the sanctions effect on the Iranian economy.

正是这些制裁迫使他们坐到了谈判桌前。

That brought them to the table.

我们达成了这项协议，但同时也保留了对伊朗非核活动、导弹以及人权镇压等行为实施制裁的能力。

We reached that deal, but then we also maintain the ability to use sanctions against Iran for non nuclear activity, missiles, you know, crackdowns on human rights.

是的

Right.

所以我认为我们应该尝试回到那种状态。

So I think we should try to return to that.

让我们就核计划达成一项协议，然后利用我们其他的手段来应对那些导致地区不稳定的非核活动。

Let's get a deal on the nuclear program and then use these other tools that we have to try to deal with non nuclear activities that are causing instability in the region.

这是弗吉尼亚州的民主党参议员蒂姆·凯恩。

That was democratic senator Tim Caine of Virginia.

本集由亚历杭德拉·马克斯、汉西和卡伦·萨莫拉制作，音频工程由泰德·尼本负责。

This episode was produced by Alejandra Marquez, Hansi, and Karen Zamora with audio engineering by Ted Niebain.

本集由帕特里克·贾伦·瓦塔纳南和考特尼·多里安剪辑。

It was edited by Patrick Jaren Watananen and Courtney Dorien.

我们的执行制片人是萨米·耶尼根。

Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan.

这是来自NPR的《请考虑一下》。

It's consider this from NPR.

我是陈尔莎。

I'm Elsa Chang.

在《等待，等待，别告诉我》节目中，我们并不是仅仅能采访名人。

On Wait Wait Don't Tell Me, it's not so much we get to talk to celebrities.

而是能和名人聊聊其他名人，就像我们之前和演员内森·莱恩聊的那样。

It's that we get to talk to celebrities about other celebrities like we did with actor Nathan Lane.

我记得不得不告诉乔治·C.

I remember having to tell George C.

斯科特我要离开节目去演这部音乐剧。

Scott that I was leaving the show to do this musical.

他对我说：‘你抛下我去做一场魔术秀？’

And he said to me, you're leaving me to do a magic show?

请在NPR应用中或您收听播客的平台收听《等待，等待，别告诉我》。

Listen to Wait Wait in the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.

想在没有广告中断的情况下收听这个播客吗？

Wanna hear this podcast without sponsor breaks?

亚马逊Prime会员可以通过Amazon Music免费收听本节目，您也可以支持NPR的重要新闻报道，并通过+.npr.org获取《Consider This》Plus版。

Amazon Prime members can listen to consider this sponsor free through Amazon Music, or you can also support NPR's Vital Journalism and get consider this plus at +.npr.org.

网址是+.npr.org。

That's +.npr.org.