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我觉得很多人没意识到，司美格鲁肽和替尔泊肽的收入加起来比OpenAI和Anthropic的总和还要多。
I don't think a lot of people realize this, but semaglutide and tirzepatide have more revenue than OpenAI and Anthropic combined.
一百年后回看现在这个历史时刻，这绝对是这十年里最具影响力的转变之一，毫无疑问。
When we look back, you know, a hundred years from now at this point in history, it's gonna be one of the most impactful flips that happened this decade without a doubt.
目前还没有人证明这些干预措施能在人类身上延缓衰老速度。
No one's proven these interventions can work in humans to slow the rate of aging.
而这将在未来十年内发生。
And that is going to happen in the next ten years.
有科技亿万富翁，有AI实验室，英伟达和礼来合作，布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗和CZ联手。
You have tech billionaires, you have AI labs, NVIDIA teaming up with Eli Lilly, Brian Armstrong with CZ.
为什么这一切会同时爆发？
Why is all this exploding at the
同时？
same time?
很明显，这将成为有史以来最大的市场之一，任何行业都无法比拟。
And it's so obvious it's gonna be one of the biggest markets of any industry ever.
你觉得现在活着的人能永生吗？
Do you think someone alive today will live forever?
我觉得大家都喜欢……
I I think everyone loves...
大家都特别……
Everyone's like so...
一听到“永生”这个词上新闻，大家就特别兴奋。
When they hear the like immortality word get in headlines, they love it.
他们就是那种……
They're just like...
大家对永生这个话题特别激动。
People get so excited about the live forever immortality line.
但我觉得大家都忘了，这个世界本质上是很危险的。
But I think everybody forgets is like the world is inherently dangerous.
比如就在昨天，我老家有个人从麦当劳开车回来，在镇上的主干道上出车祸去世了，真的很难过。
Like, you know, it's like just yesterday somebody in my hometown died, you know, driving back from McDonald's in, like, the main route in the town, which is so sad.
而且我觉得，真的会有人永生吗？
And and I think, you know, will someone live forever?
就算你解决了生物衰老的问题，还有其他各种因素呢。
Even if you solve the biological aging components, you still have all these other things.
如果你要活几万年，随便一件特别蠢或者特别傻的事都可能让你没命。
And if you're gonna live for tens of thousands of years, something could very easily take you out that's really stupid or really dumb.
所以，关于永生这件事，我们这辈子能不能解决生物衰老，给某人带来永生的可能呢？
And so, like, this whole immortality thing, like, will we solve biological age to give somebody that potential in our lifetime?
大概五到十年前，我可能会说不可能，但现在我可能五五开吧。
I probably, like, five or ten years ago would have said no, but now I'm I'm probably more fifty fifty on it.
部分原因就是，我真的感受到了奇点，感受到了AI和生物交汇的加速。
And in part, just literally feeling the singularity, like, feeling the acceleration of the intersection of AI and bio.
一旦进入非常陡峭的指数增长，就很难预测了。
It's it's hard to extrapolate once you hit a really, really steep exponential.
我觉得这就是难点。
I think that is the tough part.
就是……
It's...
我们越来越接近了。
We're getting closer.
就像机器人技术一样。
It's like robotics.
这一切会很快发生吗？
Is it all happening very soon?
会不会像ChatGPT那样的时刻？
Is it a ChatGPT moment?
AI也是一样。
Same with AI.
下一步会是什么？
What's the next step up?
现在说到长寿，我们刚才聊到的肽类，我所有的朋友都在讨论这个。
And now with longevity, we were just talking about with peptides, all my friends are talking about it.
还有一个奇怪的地方，我觉得我们的生活每年都因为科技而明显变化。
There's another weird aspect where I think our lives like noticeably change each year with technology.
如果回到我祖父母那辈，我确定我们有更新的药物，生活方式也大不相同，但他们吃的药和我吃的没什么太大区别。
If I go back to my grandparents, I'm sure, you know, we have newer medicines, our life's way different, but they weren't taking anything too different than what I take.
我每天也没吃什么奇怪的药。
I don't take any crazy medications every day.
我就喝点咖啡因，吃点东西，喝点水。
I take some caffeine, I have food, I drink my water.
就像……
It's like it's...
其实也没进步多少。
It really hasn't advanced that much.
是不是因为我们的体系设计得有点反了？
Is that because our system is kind of designed backwards?
我们只是在你生病的时候才帮你，还是？
We just help you once you're sick or?
我本人对日常这一块特别着迷，而且我完全相信，在未来十到十五年里，这会带来一个巨大的变化，让我们日常能用的干预手段终于能实现预防医学。
The the day to day is is the part that, you know, I'm personally absolutely obsessed with, and I am entirely convinced that in the next ten to fifteen years, this is gonna be a step change in terms of what is, you know, available in our day to day interventions to finally enable preventative medicine.
我觉得让我抓狂的就是你说的这一点，完全正确。
I think that's what drives me crazy is you're exactly right.
就像我们的……
Like our...
就像我们现在所谓的预防医学，还是那个可能价值万亿的健康产业，但里面很多东西其实没什么用。
Like what we take as preventative medicine today is still this like maybe, you know, trillion dollar wellness industry of things that don't really work.
比如好多肽类。
It's like so many peptides.
大家都在吃复合维生素、各种搭配，或者阿司匹林之类的，但这些根本达不到你期望的预防医学的效果。
Everybody's doing their multivitamin, sort of stack or aspirin or these sorts of things, and they just, like, point blank aren't working in the way that you would want a preventative medicine to work.
举个例子，我爷爷是最早接受青霉素治疗的美国士兵之一。
And, you know, maybe an example here is, like, my my grandfather was one of the first US soldiers to be treated with penicillin.
那是在三十年代末、四十年代初的基础训练时。
Was, like, in basic training in late nineteen thirties, early nineteen forties.
得了肺炎，差点没命，用青霉素治好了，之后就像正常人一样活了一辈子。
Got pneumonia, very close to dying, treated with penicillin, lived like normal rest of life.
这简直不可思议。
And which is insane.
他最后活到九十多岁才去世。
Like, you know, literally died in his nineties.
对。
Yep.
我一直在等衰老领域的那个青霉素时刻。
And I'm, like, waiting for that penicillin moment for the aging field.
我真的觉得就在未来十到十五年内。
And I really do think it's in the next ten to fifteen years.
我们已经开始看到一些苗头了，比如心血管疾病的预防措施。
And we're starting to see it with with kind of like preventives for cardiovascular disease.
大家都知道，到了一定年纪就会用他汀类药物。
So everyone's very familiar and uses statins once you hit a certain age.
我觉得这就像我们在等待我们的他汀类药物，但不仅仅是针对心血管疾病。
And I think that's just like we're waiting for our statins but beyond just cardiovascular disease.
有科技亿万富翁，有AI实验室，有NVIDIA和礼来在旧金山合作，还有加密货币创始人布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗创办了一家大公司，正在产生影响，还有一些令人兴奋的实验正在进行中，币安的CZ甚至也在资助一项大型研究项目。
You have tech billionaires, you have AI labs, you have NVIDIA teaming up with Eli Lilly here in SF, crypto founders Brian Armstrong with a with a massive new company making a dent, and some exciting, experiments on the way, CZ of Binance even is kind of funding a big research effort.
这一切都同时汇聚在长寿这个领域，文化上也是如此。
It's all converging on longevity and this field at the same time culturally too.
布莱恩·约翰逊成了被测试最多的人，我所有的朋友都在谈论肽类，是的，我当时就想，为什么这一切会同时爆发？
Brian Johnson becoming the most tested human being and all my friends are about peptides and yeah, was kind of, I was like, why is all this exploding at the same time?
所以这不仅仅是一种感觉，你真的认为会有一次重大变革即将到来。
So that's not just a feeling like you, you do think there is a step change coming.
就是这样。
That's it.
这不仅仅是因为我刷推特更多了，因为我确实在这么做。
That's not all just like I'm looking at Twitter more because I am doing that.
但我之前也在想，是不是只有我有这种感觉。
But I was I was wondering if it's just me.
这真的在发生。
It's actually happening.
确实在发生，但是……
It is actually happening, but it...
这真的很有意思。
It's really funny.
我完全搞错了顺序，我……
I I was so wrong in the order that I...
就是，事情的先后顺序。
Like, the order of operations.
我以前特别确信，我们会先看到干预措施，然后才会迎来衰老领域的ChatGPT时刻，也就是兴趣和热情爆发的时候。
I was so convinced that we were gonna get the interventions first, and that was when you were gonna see the ChatGPT moment of the aging field of this explosion of interest and excitement.
结果完全反过来了，实际上是安德鲁·胡伯曼、彼得·阿提亚、布莱恩·约翰逊这些人把这个领域、这个概念带给了大众。
It was, like, totally the opposite order of operations where it was really Andrew Huberman, Peter Attia, Brian Johnson brought this field, this concept to the masses.
我记得所有
I remember all
这个，就像资本一样。
this, like capital.
我记得我当时在伊斯坦布尔，大概两年前吧。
I remember I was in Istanbul, probably, like, 2.5 ago.
我的优步司机问我做什么的，我说我做长寿研究。
My Uber driver, he, like, asked me what I did there, and and I was like, oh, I work on longevity.
他问我，你认识布莱恩·约翰逊吗？
And he was like, do you know this guy Brian Johnson?
对，真的就是过去三年，这个领域才变得广为人知，但它……
And and, yeah, it's, like, literally been the past three years that it's flipped the switch in terms of becoming more widespread, but it...
它还不是根本。
It's still not the root.
就像，我……
Like, I...
我觉得我们离这个领域的奇迹时刻还有五到十年，从所有这些兴奋、这些播客，到真正让我们的衰老方式发生巨大改变。
We're still, like, I think five to ten years away from the magical step function of the field from all this excitement, all these podcasts to day to day really making a dramatic improvement in terms of how we age.
为什么现在……
Why now that...
那你觉得AI会加速我们到达那个阶段吗？
So do you think it's AI is is gonna accelerate us there?
就像你描述的奇点吸引力？
The the singularity pull as you described it?
是因为我们有了所有的……
Is it because we have all the...
像Huberman那样每周都在讨论？
The Hubermans talking about it every single week?
还是仅仅因为资本涌入？
Is it just the capital influx?
因为这方面也有很多。
Because there's a lot of that too.
比如，到底是什么……
Like, what is the...
我确定是这三者都有，但你觉得具体是什么？
I'm sure it's all three, but, like, what what do you think it is?
我觉得我们离第一批产品，
I think we're,
大概还有三到四年的时间。
you know, a couple of years away, call it, like, three to four years away from the first products.
而且我认为即使没有播客，没有AI，这个时间表也不会变。
And I think that even was on track to happen without the podcast, without AI.
我觉得我们离这个领域展示第一个概念验证，其实也就差几年。
Like, I think we were we were only a couple years away from the field showing its first proof of concept.
而且那将会非常神奇。
And I think that is going to be very magical.
不过，不会像我们第一次体验大语言模型那样，比如第一次用ChatGPT生成一首诗，那种即时的惊喜感。
Like like, not quite the same experience as when we first experienced, like, an LLM when we all tried out our first version of ChatGPT or something and created a poem for the first time.
它不会那么快就有反馈。
It's not gonna be quite that, like, instantaneous rate of feedback.
但比如说，明年有一家叫Loyal的公司，我们参与了很多，他们将要……
But for example, next year, a company called Loyal that we've had a lot of involvement with is going to be...
应该说，敲敲木头，他们有望推出全球首个获得FDA批准的延长狗寿命的疗法。
I should say, knock on wood, they're on track to launch the world's first FDA approved therapy to increase lifespan in dogs.
我觉得这会是大家家里一个非常真实的产品时刻，一种日常口服零食，已经被证明能积极影响衰老的生物学过程。
And I think this is going to be a very real product moment for people in everyone's homes, a daily oral treat, that has been shown to, positively impact biology of aging.
至于人类版本，我觉得我们离那也就再远几年，而且我认为这一切实际上已经进行了大约十年了。
And for the human version, think, you know, we're only a few more years out here that away and and I think this has all been actually in motion and in progress for for like a decade now.
但人类不能吃那个吧。
Humans can't eat that though.
比如如果对我的狗有效，我不能时不时来一个，因为人们会尝试的。
Like if it starts working for my dog, I can't I can't have one here and there because people will try it.
就像我们都见过的，人们愿意当先驱去尝试。
As we've both seen, people are willing to be pioneers and try.
不推荐那样做。
It's not recommended.
我绝对不能推荐任何人去吃那个狗零食。
I I cannot recommend anybody to take the dog treats.
这不会
It's not
阻止他们。
gonna stop them.
我同意你的看法。
I agree with you.
可能确实阻止不了他们。
It probably will not stop them.
就是阻止不了他们。
It's just not gonna stop them.
我一直在试着理解可投资的生物技术领域和那些炒作叙事之间的区别，因为你经常看到这种情况。
I've been trying to understand like the investable biotech versus the narrative because you you see a lot of that.
你在播客上会看到很多人。
You see a lot of people on the on the podcast.
我会提到胡伯曼，因为他有那种读写式的论点，他谈过这个，我自己在生活中也看到了类似的情况。
Huberman, I'll bring up just because he has the read write kind of thesis he kind of talked about and just what I saw as well in my own personal life.
我们有过一段时期，大家都在用Fitbit追踪健康，这些可穿戴设备。
We had a period where it was all about Fitbit tracking your health, these wearables.
我们只是想弄清楚自己有多健康。
We're just kind of trying to figure out how healthy we are.
现在我们到了给生物学写指令的阶段。
Now we're at the stage of writing to your biology.
所以我们在干预，我们在吃肽类，你在用一些东西来防脱发或减脂，等等。
So we're intervening, we're taking peptides, you're taking things for hair loss or fat loss, whatever else.
你有一个框架，它大致描述了之后的发展方向，我觉得这对我很有帮助，读的时候我就想，这就是我们现在的位置，这是它可以去的地方，不仅是在兴趣方面，还有可投资的机会。
You have a framework which kind of lays out where it goes after that and I think it was really helpful for me when I was reading that of saying, this is where we are now, this is where it can go, Not only in terms of interest but investable opportunities.
你能详细讲讲吗？
Can you walk through that?
这四个是延迟、替代、暂停和逆转。
The the four there's delay, replace, pause, and, reverse.
我们待会儿会讲到为什么那是终极目标。
And we'll get to kind of why that's the holy grail.
但这个框架具体是什么呢？
But what is that framework?
我觉得这能帮到正在看的人，特别是那些刚接触肽类、还在摸索这到底会走向何方的新手。
I think it'll give people watching, especially if they're newer, they're in the peptide world that are trying to figure out where the hell does this go.
你能简单讲讲这个框架吗？
Can you just walk through that framework?
我觉得你说得完全对。
And and I think you're exactly right.
过去两年，我们确实看到了这种“测量读取”现象的兴起，几乎到了有点反弹的地步，人们会说：“我不想被告知昨晚睡得有多糟。”
We've seen really the rise over the past two years of this measurement read phenomenon, Almost to the point where there's getting a little bit of a backlash where people are like, I don't wanna be told that I slept horribly last night.
比如
Like
那根本帮不上忙。
That's not helping.
或者我觉得人们真的很渴望干预措施。
Or, you know, I I think people are really craving the intervention.
因为你可以想测多少就测多少，但如果真的有什么东西能让你把指标往一个方向或另一个方向调，那就更有意思了。
Because you can measure all you want, but it's a lot more fun if you have actually something to dial the needle in in one direction or another.
所以这基本上是我自己看待很多这类测量公司的核心观点之一，而且我真的觉得这一波浪潮会非常非常有趣，值得我们好好探索一番。
And so that's that's kind of been a a core part of my own thesis in terms of how I view a lot of these measurement companies, and I really do think that this right wave is is going to be, yeah, just really, really fun to dip our toes into.
但这需要时间。
And it's gonna take time.
不会是一夜之间彻底翻转的那种现象。
It's not gonna be like an overnight complete flip trajectory phenomenon.
但我确实认为……
But I do think it's...
比如，当我们一百年后回看这段历史时，这绝对是这十年里最具影响力的转变之一，毫无疑问。
Like, when we look back, you know, a hundred years from now at this point in history, it's gonna be one of the most impactful flips that happened this decade without a doubt.
所以，就我们的框架而言，是的。
And so in terms of our framework Yeah.
对，真的，我们……
Yeah, really, we...
我们试图从非常宏观的角度，拆解出可能的几个方向，看看我们自己的衰老生物学该怎么写。
We've tried to break down what the potential buckets at a very, very high level could look like in terms of how we could write our own biology of aging.
我们的想法是，第一代干预措施，目标其实很简单，就是减缓或者预防衰老生物学的很多方面。
And, the way we kinda think about it is there's really kind of this first generation of interventions where really the goal is to simply slow, or or prevent many aspects of biology of aging.
这些措施不会是什么特别炫酷的新技术，但它们会是第一个证明点。
And these are not gonna look, like some, you know, crazy fancy new technology, but there's gonna be the first proof point.
比如，目前还没有人证明这些干预措施能在人类身上减缓衰老速度，而这件事会在未来十年内发生。
Like, no one's proven these interventions can work in humans to slow the rate of aging, and that is going to happen in the next ten years.
所以这算是“预防”这个类别。
So that's kind of this, like, prevent category.
我们还有“替换”这个类别。
We we have this, category of replace.
当我们想到第二代干预措施，效果会大得多，这些……
When we think about kind of second gen interventions of much, much bigger effect sizes, these...
这就是AI将要发挥重要作用的地方。
This is where AI is going to play
好的。
Okay.
嗯
A
在我们推进这些干预措施的过程中，AI将扮演非常重要的角色。
a very big role as we push these categories of interventions forward.
但当我们考虑第二代或下一代干预措施时，我们真正想到的是“替换”，我们的目标之一就是在未来五十年内替换人体内的每一个细胞。
But when we think about this second gen or next gen interventions, we really think of, like, replace where one of our goals is to be able to replace every single cell in the human body over the next fifty years.
另一个类别，我还应该把组织也加进去，未来五十年内替换细胞和组织。
Another category, and I should add tissue in there as well, cell and tissue over the next fifty years.
所以这就是“替换”。
So that's replace.
那里的理论就是，衰老过程中有很多东西出错，无论是细胞老化还是组织老化。
And the kind of theory there is just that it's so many things are going wrong in aging in terms of how cells age or how tissues age.
但如果你直接拿一个新鲜年轻的细胞或组织，把受损严重的换掉，有时候比试图修复细胞层面发生的成千上万种不同形式的分子损伤要容易得多。
But if you simply take a fresh young cell or a fresh young tissue, swapping out one with a ton of damage is sometimes easier than trying to repair the hundreds of thousands of different forms of maculomolecular damage that happen at a cellular level.
我想继续这么做。
I want to keep doing that.
那新鲜细胞从哪里来？
Where are we getting the fresh ones?
你来捐献。
You're donating.
所以那是……
So that is...
那就是来源。
That's where it comes from.
是新鲜捐献的吗？
Is it fresh donation?
还是在实验室里培育出来的？
Are we creating them in a lab?
我们现在都能用3D打印金属了。
I mean, we're three d printing metal now.
就像有……
It's like there's...
我不知道。
I don't know.
我们能3D打印它们吗，还是我得去捐献？
Can we three d print them or do I have to donate?
所以我觉得目前来说，我们还不清楚。
So I'd say currently, we don't know.
好的。
Okay.
好的。
Okay.
但是关于如何获取用于移植的新组织或新细胞类型，有很多方法在并行推进。
But there are many approaches in parallel in terms of how to derive new tissue for a transplant, or new cell types.
过去三十年医学领域的一场革命，就是一位博士。
So one of the revolutions of of the past thirty years in medicine has been Doctor.
山中伸弥博士，诺贝尔奖得主。
Shinya Yamanaka, a Nobel Prize winner.
他首次证明了你可以拿一个已经分化的细胞，
He showed for the first time that you can take a differentiated scale...
比如皮肤细胞，然后逆分化回到多能干细胞的状态。
Cell like a skin cell and go back up the scale of pluripotency to a pluripotent stem cell.
这项技术被称为诱导多能干细胞，也就是iPSCs。
And so this technology is is known as induced pluripotent stem cells, iPSCs.
这完全是革命性的，因为我们一直以为只能从干细胞分化成特定细胞。
This has been completely revolutionary in terms of we always thought you could only go from stem cell to a differentiated cell.
这开启了一整类全新的药物，大家都非常确信很快就能应用到人类身上。
And this has unlocked a whole new category of medicines that everyone was very convinced was gonna have really quick translation to humans.
结果呢，我们花了大概二十年才解决了很多问题，做了很多优化，想了很多办法，把这些诱导多能干细胞变成能移植到人体内的功能性细胞。
Well, it turned out it took us, like, twenty years to figure out a lot of the kinks and a lot of the optimizations and a lot of the ways to kind of massage these induced pluripotent stem cells into usable functional cells that can engraft into humans.
就在过去一年半里，我们有了人类临床试验数据，表明我们可以取这些人类多能干细胞，分化出神经细胞类型，植入人体，并且它们能存活、整合并发挥功能超过一年半。
And just in the past year and a half, we now have human clinical trial data that we can take these human pluripotent stem cells, derive neural cell types, implant them in humans, and have them survive and engraft and function for over a year and a half.
在这项关键发现二十年之后，直到过去一年半我们才做到这一点。
Only in the past year and a half after, you know, twenty years after this key discovery have we been able to do this.
所以一个来源就是我们自己的细胞，以及把它们变成干细胞的能力。
So one source is just gonna be our own cells and and the ability to take them and turn them into stem cells.
还有一个现象，我记得是《科学》杂志的突破之一，大概是五年前吧，叫做合成胚胎，就是你能从胚胎干细胞创造出类似……
There's another phenomenon that was one of the science magazine breakthroughs, I wanna say five five years ago or so now, which is called synthetic embryos, where you're actually able to, from, your embryonic stem cells, create, something that is akin to...
我想说，比如在……
I'd say, like, in in...
他们称之为整合干细胞模型，但类似一种模型，可以真正用你自己的细胞克隆生长出来，有可能获得组织和细胞，再移植回你体内。
They call them, like, integrated stem cell models, but something akin to a model that could actually grow out with clone of your own cells to potentially be able to to have tissues and cells to engraft back into your cell.
明白了。
I see.
明白了。
I see.
所以这是后续组织和其他一切的基础。
So it's a building block for the rest of what comes after tissue and everything else.
好的。
Okay.
没错。
Exactly.
而且到目前为止，科学家们只能在老鼠和人类身上把它推进到非常有限的时间尺度，大概就是几周或者很多天，但全球很多实验室都在竞赛，看谁能把这些合成胚胎或整合干细胞模型推得最远，直到它们长出可用于移植的器官和细胞。
And so scientists have only been able to push it to very, limited amount of time scales both in mice and humans so far and, you know, on the order of, like, small amount of weeks or or many amount of days, but there's a race going on in many labs around the world as to who can push these synthetic embryos or integrated stem cell models out as far as possible until they've grown organs and cells that could be usable for transplant.
如果我说错了请纠正我，这可能是个超级简化的版本，但我们之前谈到的二十年前学到的、现在正在人类身上应用的技术，就是拿一个细胞，比如一个60岁人的皮肤细胞或毛囊细胞，把它带回干细胞状态，然后你刚才提到的这个模型，我们相当于快进几周，让它构建组织，这就像时间旅行。
Correct me if I'm wrong, this might be a super simplified version but the previous thing we talked about that we learned twenty years ago and is now being implemented in humans taking a cell so let's say it's a 60 year old skin cell or hair cell bringing it back to its stem cell and then this model you just talked about where we're kind of fast forwarding weeks and having it build the tissue This is like time travel.
我们拿一个细胞，把它带回去。
I mean, we're taking a cell and bringing it back.
我们在两三周内让某个东西构建一个系统。
We're having something in two or three weeks, it it can build a system.
这太不可思议了。
Like, what?
现在的情况就是这样吗？
Is that what's going on here?
是不是……
Is that...
我是不是把两个不同的概念混在一起了？
Am I kinda mixing two different concepts?
科学家认为，这里的一个根本基础是生物学中最常见的实验之一，那就是繁殖、性、生孩子。
And and scientists think some part of the fundamental basis here is one of the most repeated experiments in biology, which is reproduction, sex, having kids.
每次我们生孩子，它……
Every time we have kids, it...
我们不会把年龄传给下一代。
We don't pass along age to our offspring.
所以，即使你四五十岁、五六十岁，确实有更高的遗传病风险，生育能力也会下降，这些都是有原因的。
So you can have people in their 40s, 50s, 60s, yes, you're at higher risk for genetic diseases and there is a reason that fertility declines and all these sorts of things.
但根本上，你可以在身体里积累很多年龄，但当你繁殖时，这些年龄不会传给后代。
But fundamentally, like you can accumulate a lot of age in your body but when you reproduce that age is not passed on to your offspring.
否则，你的后代每一代都会活得更短。
Otherwise your offspring would live a lot shorter with each generation.
所以大自然发现了某种方法，要么让细胞完全恢复年轻，要么在繁殖过程中选择那些不受衰老影响的细胞。
And so nature has discovered some sort of technique to either rejuvenate cells entirely or select cells that are somehow protected from age in that process.
所以有人称之为“不朽的生殖细胞系”，也有人称之为“生殖细胞系年轻化”。
So some people call this the immortal germline, some people call it germline rejuvenation.
在我看来，这是生物学中研究最少的现象之一，但也是最令人惊叹的。对，这太神奇了。
It's one of the least studied, in my opinion, phenomenon in biology, but also the most Yeah.
这太不可思议了。
That's wild.
这个事实促使尤里·米尔纳、杰夫·贝索斯，据说还有比尔·盖茨，向阿尔托实验室投资了30亿美元，这家公司正是围绕这个原理成立的。
This fact caused Yuri Milner, Jeff Bezos, also rumored to be Bill Gates, to invest $3,000,000,000 into the company Alto's Labs, was really formed around this principle.
直到最近，他还担任该公司的顾问。
And until very recently was an adviser associated with the company.
所以这真的是……
So this is really...
当你描述这种真正能让时钟倒转的能力时，
When you're describing this, like, ability to really turn the clock down
听起来就像这样。
what it sounds like.
至少从我们目前所有的实验来看，当你把一个衰老的细胞逆转回诱导多能干细胞时，你是在逆转衰老生物学的大部分方面。
It is at least thought from all the experiments that we have to date that when you take an aged cell, turn it back to an induced pluripotent stem cell, you're reversing most aspects of biology of aging.
所以年龄，对，时间，我想我在替换这两个词，但在很多方面它们是一样的。
So age, yeah, time, I guess I'm substituting those two words but in a lot of ways they're the same.
这就是完整的框架。
I mean, that's the full framework.
那是第四阶段。
That's the fourth stage.
那就是你所说的圣杯。
That's the holy grail as you would describe it.
那就是表观遗传重编程吗？
Is that epigenetic reprogramming?
所以我们把它从替换或者我们可能的第一类第二代技术中拿出来。
So, you know, we're taking it from replace or just kind of our, you know, maybe, first of these second gen categories.
第二代技术中的第二类是在细胞内部恢复年轻状态。
A second of these second gen categories would be to restore age inside a cell.
这就是你描述的表观遗传重编程整个类别，不同于我刚才说的完全回到多能干细胞，你不需要改变细胞的分化状态，而是只逆转细胞的老化时钟。
And so this is this whole category that you're describing of epigenetic reprogramming, where instead of what I just described where you go all the way back to a pluripotent stem cell, you're not messing with the differentiation state of a cell, but instead you're only turning back the clock in the age of a cell.
我们有几个不同的实验已经证明了这一原理。
And so we have a a couple different experiments that have served as proof of principle for this.
这实际上是我在斯坦福读博士前半段研究的内容。
This is actually what I studied in the first half of my PhD at Stanford.
我特意加入实验室就是为了研究这个现象。
Specifically joined the lab to study this phenomenon.
我得说，到目前为止证据仍然非常初步，但现在有很多公司在做这个，包括Altos Labs，还有Sam Altman资助的Retro Bio，以及你之前提到的Brian Armstrong的NewLimit。
And I'd say the evidence is still to this day very early, but now there are a number of companies, including Altos Labs, including retro bio funded by Sam Altman, and including NewLimit that you alluded to earlier with Brian Armstrong.
我觉得NewLimit在这三家公司中，在将这个现象转化到人类应用方面，确实是领先的。
NewLimit, I would say, is really probably the leader of those three in terms of translating this phenomenon to humans.
到目前为止，他们的数据在实现这一目标的道路上看起来非常有希望。
And so far, their data looks very promising on the journey to do that.
感觉怎么样？
How does it feel?
所以你在本科时在辛克莱的实验室研究过这个，然后在斯坦福大学汤姆·兰多的指导下获得了博士学位。
I mean, so you studied this and you were in Sinclair's lab in undergrad, got a PhD under Tom Rando at Stanford.
这基本上是你的一生，二十年来，你一直在研究这个。
This has kind of been your whole life and for twenty years, you're kind of, this is what you literally studied.
现在你创办了一家公司，还管理着一只基金，把所有这些钱投进去，现在这一切都实现了。
Now you've built a company and, also, running a fund, deploying all this money into and now it's all happened.
就在去年，你进行了人体试验，其中一些东西确实有效。
Just last year you have a human trial and some of this stuff works.
那感觉如何？
How does that feel?
我和一位从事机器人研究四十年的人聊过。
I was talking to roboticist for forty years.
他现在在RoboStrategy，他跟我描述说，四十年来他一直觉得，天哪，未来五到十年就要起飞了，但他就是看不到那一天。
Now he's at, RoboStrategy and he was describing to me, he's like for forty years I felt like, man, the next five or ten years is gonna take off and he just couldn't see it.
现在他们搞定了大脑和手，他就觉得，天哪。
And now they figured out the brain and the hand and he's like, oh my gosh.
这就像是他等了一辈子的东西。
It's like it's it's what he's been waiting for his whole life.
你也有点这种感觉吗？
Is there a little bit of that for you?
你会觉得，终于来了。
You're like, it's it's finally happening.
老兄，那感觉怎么样？
Like, how does that feel, man?
太疯狂了。
It's crazy.
感觉特别激动，因为……
It feels so electrifying, because...
我们刚才没聊到的那个类别，就是暂停。
And and, you know, the the category we didn't talk about there was, pausing.
完全暂停时钟，算是第二代干预手段。
Fully pausing the clock is kind of the second gen intervention.
在这方面，我们可以聊聊冷冻保存，就是完全暂停时钟这个概念。
And in that, we can describe cryopreservation, this notion of, like, fully pausing the clock.
而且这里面肯定有故事，比如基金联合创始人，年龄一岁的劳拉·戴明，她的经历，她在冷冻保存领域做了很多开创性的工作。
And and there's definitely a story there in terms of the cofounder at the fund, age one, Laura Deming, in terms of her journey, and she's been pioneering a lot of work in the cryopreservation space.
但我清楚记得，当她刚开始那段旅程的时候，有一部分……
But I remember distinctly when she kind of started on that journey, a part...
我想很多人都在猜测，但进入冷冻保存领域的一部分原因，是你真的在思考，衰老领域为什么没有取得巨大的突破或显著的进展。
You know, I think a lot of people speculated about this, but a part of the journey into cryopreservation, you're really thinking about how the aging field hasn't made, you know, dramatic leaps or significant progress.
它一直走的是比较慢的路线。
It has been in more of the slower path.
我觉得我最喜欢的一个转变是，在过去三年里，她重新焕发了活力，对这个领域特别兴奋和热情。
And I think that's been one of my favorite transitions is in the past three years, she's just gotten this whole reinvigoration of being so amped and excited about the space.
但对我们团队来说，这有点像“锁定”的概念。
But for us here at the team, it's it's kind of this notion of lock in.
我觉得现在大家都在体验这种“氛围编程”的感觉。
I think everyone's feeling this with vibe coding right now.
你刚刚进入了一个全新的时代，看到人们整个周末都沉浸在氛围编程里，甚至都不出公寓。
You've just entered this whole new era where you see people just completely vibe code an entire weekend and not even come out of their apartment.
我们正在接近进入衰老领域的那个阶段。
We're getting towards the point of entering that for the aging field.
就在昨天，Anthropic Life Sciences 发布了他们的新模型，专门针对生命科学行业，但他们也强调正在开展针对衰老和罕见及被忽视疾病的临床前项目。
And even just yesterday, Anthropic Life Sciences, they had this huge announcement with their new model, specific to the life science industry, but they also highlighted that they were working on preclinical programs for aging and rare and neglected diseases.
所以当 Anthropic 公开表示这将是他们的重点领域之一时，
So when you have anthropic, publicly stating that this is going to be one of their big focus areas,
好戏开场了。
Game on.
比赛暂停一下。
Quick break in the action.
我有个很棒的优惠要送给大家，这要感谢节目的赞助商。
A really cool offer that I'm able to give away thanks to the show sponsor.
这是一个一千美元的资助账户。
It's a thousand dollar funded account.
你可以保留80%的利润，而且他们让我免费赠送这个挑战机会。
You keep 80% of the profits and they're letting me give away the challenge for free.
你只需要听一下这条简短的消息，然后我会详细说明如何获得那个一千美元的资助账户。
You just have listen to this quick message and I'll explain exactly how you can get that thousand dollar funded account.
本期节目由Payward赞助，他们是Kraken、NinjaTrader和X stocks背后的公司。
This show is brought to you by Payward and they're the company that's behind Kraken or NinjaTrader or X stocks.
你可能用过他们的产品。
You've probably used one of their products before.
如果你喜欢交易比特币，他们有600种不同的加密货币。
If you like to trade Bitcoin, they have 600 different cryptocurrencies.
他们还有11000种股票和ETF。
They also have 11,000 different stocks and ETFs.
这些都可以在Kraken上完成，而且就像我说的，他们还让我免费送出一个一千美元的资助账户。
That all goes down on Kraken, and they're also letting me give away, as I said, that a thousand dollar funded account.
现在，你需要这样做。
Now here's what you have to do.
去Kraken Funded。
Go to Kraken Funded.
描述里有个链接，使用代码convergence 1000。
There's a link in the description and use the code convergence 1,000.
现在屏幕上就有。
It's on the screen right now.
如果你在听，就是convergence 1000。
If you're listening, it's convergence 1,000.
如果你注册Kraken Funded，存入200美元，然后用这200美元进行交易。
If you sign up to Kraken Funded, you deposit $200, you trade the $200.
如果你通过了挑战，你就会得到一个一千美元的资助账户，而且通常这对节目的听众来说要花20美元。
If you pass that challenge, you have a thousand dollar funded account, and usually this cost $20 for listeners of the show.
如果你现在正在收听，你就可以免费参与。
If you're tuned in right now, you get to do it for free.
保留80%的利润。
Keep 80% of the profits.
这一切都在Kraken上进行。
It's all going down right there on Kraken.
谢谢你，Payward，让我做这件事。
Thank you, Payward, for letting me do this.
好了，我们回到节目吧，各位。
Let's get back to the show, guys.
有没有那么一个时刻，如果事情没有这样发展，如果一切都没有汇聚到一起，你有没有想过，你知道吗？
Was there a moment if it didn't happen like this, if it all wasn't converging, were you thinking, you know what?
我就打算……
I'm just gonna...
希望冷冻技术能成功，他们能在五十年后把我复活。
Hopefully cryo works out and and they can bring me back in fifty years.
那是……
Was that...
这是你们领域和行业里一些人的想法吗？
Is that a thought of some people in in your field and your industry?
我相信肯定是。
I'm sure it is.
所以我要说的是，比如人体冷冻。
So I'll I'll say, like, cryonics.
劳拉喜欢区分……
Laura likes the dis...
区分开来，我完全理解。
Distinguish and I totally get it.
人体冷冻确实是在没有解决冰晶损伤的情况下冷冻人体组织。
The cryonics is really freezing, tissues in in humans without solving ice crystal damage.
所以她喜欢区分，说下一代冷冻领域正在研究可逆的低温保存。
And so she likes to make the distinction that this next gen of the cryo field is working on reversible cryopreservation.
所以，与其只是把人冻起来，带着那些冰晶损伤，然后指望百万年后我们有技术去修复破裂的细胞膜和丢失的信息，这看起来真的很难做到。不如从一开始就做好，用不让冰晶在冷冻或解冻时形成的方式来处理。
So instead of just freezing people with all this ice crystal damage and hoping we have the technology, you know, a million years from now to solve cell membranes that have been ruptured and information that's been lost seem really hard to do, Simply start from the beginning, do the process in a way to not have ice crystals form either upon freezing or thawing.
哦，我明白了。
Oh, I see.
所以这就是它的妙处。
And so that's a cool nature of it.
但这是不是人们当时的想法呢？
But in terms of was that, you know, people's thinking?
我的意思是，
I mean,
如果那是一个备份计划呢？
if it's a backup plan?
低温保存的美妙之处在于，它其实更像是一个工程问题，而不是生物学问题。
The beauty of cryopreservation is that it's really, it...
它真的更偏向工程问题，而不是生物学问题。
It's really much more towards an engineering problem than a biology problem.
而衰老则明显属于生物学范畴。
And aging is very distinctly on this biology access.
衰老涉及成千上万种不同类型的损伤，我们对此了解得还远远不够。
There's so many different thousands of types of damages, and and we really don't understand it well at all.
而在冷冻方面，我们知道冰晶是最大的问题之一。
And and cryo, we know, you know, ice crystals are one of the biggest problems.
虽然还有其他几个问题，但清单很短。
There's several other problems, but it's a pretty short list.
而且通过工程原理和物理学，你大致知道如何降低很多相关风险和负面影响。
And you kind of know via engineering principles and physics how to minimize a lot of the risks and and negative things associated with it.
所以，是的，相比之下，这本质上是一个非常容易处理的问题。
And so, yeah, it feels like an inherently very tractable, tractable problem relative between the two.
所以我相信，这对劳拉来说，在她……
And so that, you know, I'm I'm sure played a role with Laura in terms of...
在实验室以及她在这个领域所做的事情上，都起到了一定作用，这也是我们基金会对冷冻技术及其现状感到非常兴奋的部分原因。
Until labs and what she's been building in that space and is a part of the reason why we at at the fund are super excited about about cryo and where it's at.
不过，幸运的是，AI，对。
But, yeah, luckily, AI Yeah.
它已经赶上来了。
It's caught up.
所有这些其他东西也在帮助解决衰老领域的问题。
All these other things are helping out with the aging part of the field too.
哦，那真有意思。
Oh, that's funny.
我想聊聊布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗。
I wanna talk a little bit about Brian Armstrong.
你刚才提到了NewLimit。
You you hinted at there, the NewLimit.
他的新公司NewLimit筹集了330亿美元。
There was a $33,100,000,000 raise for his new company, NewLimit.
他们明年就要进行人体试验了，我记得。
They're running the human trials, next year, I believe.
你对这些试验感到兴奋吗？
Are you excited for those trials?
因为我觉得，这基本上就是你所说的那种终极目标。
Because that is, I think, doing what you described is kind of the holy grail.
他们是不是也在做同样的事情，我们终于可以不只是在小鼠身上测试，还能在人类身上测试，还是说有点不同？
Is that are they doing the same thing where we'll finally get to, like, actually test of not just working in mice, also working in humans, or is it slightly different?
我觉得NewLimit是这个领域最有才华的团队之一。
So I I think NewLimit is one of the most talented teams in the field.
他们的总裁Jacob Kimmel，一直以来都是我和Laura以及大多数同事公认的领域内最聪明的五个人之一。
Jacob Kimmel, who's the president, has long been somebody that myself, Laura, most of my colleagues have regarded as one of the top five smartest people you'll find in the field.
我可以整天听Jacob讲话。
I could spend all day listening to Jacob.
他就是……
He's just...
他真的很了不起。
He's he's phenomenal.
展开剩余字幕（还有 480 条）
我就不再多夸他了，但我……
I'll end my rant about him, but I...
这真的是……
It's it's...
我对雅各布和那个团队的态度，大家心里都清楚。
Not a secret how I feel about Jacob and that team.
不过，对，新极限公司。
But but, yeah, new new limit.
你提到了31亿美元的融资。
You mentioned 3,100,000,000 raise.
我觉得估值是31亿美元。
I think it's 3,100,000,000 The evaluation.
不过，对，就像……
But, yeah, you know, like
我看到了那个大数字。
I saw the big number.
我挺兴奋的。
I got excited.
他们现在手里有超过六亿美元的现金。
They now have over, like, 600,000,000 in cash.
这是一笔非常大的融资，刚刚由硅谷所有顶级基金完成。
It was a a very large raise, that they just closed by all the top funds in Silicon Valley.
那他们拿这六亿美元现金干什么呢？
And and what will they do with 600,000,000 in cash?
这是个大问题。
This is the big question.
他们公开宣布的，首先是在肝脏方面的工作。
So what they publicly announced, they're working on, first, liver.
他们有一个很有意思的数据，显示老年小鼠喝酒后状态不好。
And so they have this very interesting, data showing that when you treat old mice with alcohol, they don't do well.
这里对人类的过敏反应倒不是那么明显。
Not so much allergies here to humans.
确实。
Relatable.
但是年轻的小鼠喝酒之后，完全没事。
And, you know, when you treat the young mice with alcohol, they're, like, totally fine.
它们照样跑来跑去。
They run around.
一点问题都没有。
No big deal.
所以他们基于脂质纳米颗粒和mRNA技术，开发了一种重编程疗法，可以……
And and so they've created this reprogramming therapy based on lipid nanoparticles and mRNA technology that can...
这些老年小鼠接受治疗后，在酒精暴露下也能像年轻小鼠一样活蹦乱跳。
These older mice are treated with it, they're able to thrive like young mice under the exposure to alcohol.
所以他们第一个疗法是针对酒精性肝病和其他肝病的，希望以后能扩展到更广的患者群体。
And so this first therapy, they're pursuing alcohol, liver disease, and other forms of liver disease with the hopes of expanding to a much broader patient population.
与此同时，他们还在研究免疫细胞老化和肾脏老化的问题。
In parallel to that, they're targeting immune cell aging and kidneys aging.
最好的情况是，能治好肝病，
Best case scenario, liver disease,
他们就能搞定。
they solve.
最坏的情况嘛，我们也能把宿醉给治了。
Worst case scenario, we cure hangovers.
这听起来……
I mean, that seemed...
那些老老鼠状态还不错。
The old mice are doing well.
底下肯定有某种金属结构。
I mean, there's gotta be there's gotta be some kind of metal ground there.
好，我们拭目以待吧。
Well, we'll see.
不过你……
But you...
这就是最酷的地方。
That's the cool part.
手握六亿现金，他们资金充足，有望推进他们的前三四项疗法进入人体试验阶段。
With the 600,000,000 in cash, they're well funded to get through, potentially testing, you know, their first three or four therapies in humans.
我觉得未来五年左右，看他们的进展会非常令人兴奋。
And I think that's gonna be really exciting to to watch, over the next five years or so, their position.
而且我特别喜欢他们的一点是，他们对此非常坦诚。
And what I love about them too is they're so open about it.
他们有一个公开的博客。
They have this public blog.
他们不断更新他们开发的新科学的确切进展。
They're constantly updating in terms of the exact state of the new science that they've developed.
这有什么不同吗？
Is that different?
这个行业是大家都比较保密，还是更开放一些？
Is this an industry where everyone's kinda guarded, or is it more open source?
我来自加密货币领域，开源精神算是我们的核心理念。
I come from crypto and open source is kind of in the ethos.
再看看其他很多地方。
And you look at a lot of other places.
AI领域也在经历类似的争论，比如开放权重、开源。
AI is kinda going through that battle too of open weights, open source.
这个模型只是给我们自己用的。
This model is just for us.
然后还有中国的开源模型。
Then you have the Chinese open source models.
这是……
Is this...
他们这么开放，是不是很特别？
Is that unique, them being open about it?
我觉得确实非常特别。
I would say it is very unique.
现代长寿生物科技运动，很大程度上是由我的联合创始人劳拉发起的。
Part of this modern longevity biotech movement, was really created by my cofounder Laura.
这有一部分是……
It it part...
我们今天看到的这个领域的扩张，很大程度上是她推动的。
She drove so much of of this expansion of the space we saw today.
但除了她之外，另一个巨大的推动力其实是谷歌。
But in in parallel to her, one of the other huge forces that drove it was actually Google.
谷歌在Alphabet旗下的一家子公司Calico上投入了巨资。
Google, made a massive investment in a daughter company at Alphabet called Calico.
他们从生物科技领域挖来了一位传奇人物，阿特·莱文森，他之前是基因泰克的CEO，那是湾区最大的生物科技公司之一，备受尊敬，业绩斐然。
They went and they poached, an absolute legend from the biotech field, Art Levinson, was previously CEO of Genentech, you know, one of the biggest biotechs in the Bay Area, most well respected, amazing track record.
我记得他还是苹果公司的董事会主席。
He's also, I believe, the chairman of the board of Apple.
他们请他出任这家极其神秘、专注于衰老研究的公司的CEO。
And and, you know, they brought him in as CEO of this super secretive aging focused company.
他们吸纳了很多衰老领域的顶尖人物，也把他们带进了这家公司，而且给了它几十亿美元的资金。
They took a lot of the legends of the aging field and also brought them in this company, and and they gave it billions of dollars in funding.
他们还和艾伯维合作，这是全球最大的制药公司之一，后来艾伯维也匹配了他们投入的很多资金。
They brought in a collaboration with AbbVie, one of the biggest pharma companies in the world that then matched a lot of the money that they were putting into this.
加起来，过去大概十三年里，投入到卡利科的资金肯定超过了四十亿美元。
And, you know, combined, it must have been well over 4,000,000,000 committed to to Calico over the over the past, now thirteen years or so.
我记得我当时还在读本科，那时候《时代》杂志有个封面，问的是：谷歌能解决死亡问题吗？
And I remember for me, I was an undergrad, and there was this Time magazine cover that was like, can Google solve death?
我真的把它打印出来，放在我的桌子上。对。
And I literally, like, printed it out, had it on my desk Yep.
对。
Yep.
大概之后五年都是这样。
For probably, like, five years after that.
我当时就想，哇。
And I was like, wow.
我当时就想，如果谷歌有这么大的野心来做这件事，那这肯定会成为一个大趋势。
Like, if Google is ambitious enough to take this on, like, this is gonna be a whole movement.
这将会是很多人参与的一个大运动。
This is gonna be a huge movement of people doing this.
但Calico是出了名的守口如瓶，非常神秘。哦，天哪。
But Calico was notoriously one of the most tight lipped secretive organizations Oh, wow.
在我见过的任何领域里，都很少见。
That, you know, I've really seen in any field.
他们就是不愿意跟任何人谈论他们在做什么。
They just would not talk with anybody about what they did.
直到最近两年，他们才有所转变，变得更加开放。
And finally, in the past two years, they've flipped a bit on that and become more open.
但我觉得他们确实开创了一个先例，至少在衰老研究领域，就是高度保密。对。
But I would say they really started a precedent, at least in the aging field, of high secrecy Yeah.
很少合作。
Not a lot of collaboration.
不管这是不是故意的，我也不太确定。
You know, whether that was intentional or not, I'm I'm not sure.
早期的话，肯定是的。
Probably in the early days, definitely.
但还有山姆·奥特曼的公司，Retro。
But there's also, you know, the Sam Altman company, retro.
他们相对NewLimit来说，我觉得也低调得多。
They've also been, I'd say, a lot more on the stealthier side of things relative to NewLimit.
那到底哪种策略是对的，哪种是错的呢？
Now what's the right or wrong strategy?
谁知道呢？
Who knows?
但看着它发展下去会很有意思。
But it'll be fun to watch play out.
关于NewLimit的实验，我知道他们现在专注于几个方面，要解决衰老的所有问题还有很长的路要走。
With NewLimit's experiment, I know right now they're focused on a few of there's a long way to go until we solve everything with aging.
但再回到那个框架来想，有没有可能，即使我们解决了，即使实验进展顺利，那也不是解决衰老问题的关键？
But in terms of thinking about that framework again, is there a chance, even if we solve it, if the experiments go well, that isn't what solves aging?
有没有可能我们还需要在框架里加上第五个要素？
Is there a chance that we have a fifth thing we have to add to the framework?
然后我们说，看，那对治疗肝病确实很有效，也能解决这个，但我们还是没有那个全面的……
And we say, look, that's still really good at solving liver disease and it solves this, but we still don't have this holistic...
你怎么看这个问题？
How do you think about that?
还是说，你的观点是，如果那些……
Or are you saying, is it your view that if the...
有些实验进展顺利，我们能把它更广泛地应用到身体的其他部位，我们就解决了？
Some of these experiments go well and we can apply it more broadly to everywhere else in the body, we solve it?
我觉得这需要很多不同方法之间的高度协调配合。
I think I think it's gonna take such a coordinated effort across a ton of different approaches.
比如，首先，即使就现在来看，说最终会是恢复和逆转细胞年龄或组织年龄，还是替换，哪种会成为最终的制胜方法，都还为时过早。
Like, one, even even just right now, I think it's way too early to say if it's going to be restoring and and reversing cell age or tissue age or replacing that's ultimately going to be the winning phenomenon.
另外，在预防和延缓衰老这方面，你可以理论上设想一下，如果衰老的主要驱动因素真的存在，我们怎么去识别它们。
There's also in this, like, prevent delay, you could theorize how it might be possible to identify the primary drivers of aging if they did really exist.
比如，可能基因组不稳定和DNA损伤就是那个……
Like, it could turn out that genome instability and DNA damage was just this...
最上游的驱动因素。
The most upstream driver.
如果你能阻止基因组随时间变得不稳定，你也许就能完全阻止衰老的速度，甚至让一个物种实现几乎不衰老的状态。
And if you could just stop the genome from becoming unstable over time, you could totally stop the rate of aging and and create a species for, like, negligible senescence or something.
这也许是有可能的。
That may be possible.
我觉得有可能吗？
Do I think it's likely?
不。
No.
但也许是有可能的。
But it might be possible.
对于NewLimit来说，即使你能让细胞恢复年轻，还是可能会有其他各种问题。
With with NewLimit, even if you can reprogram the age of cells, there's still a variety of other problems potentially.
其中一个就是细胞外损伤。
One of those being extracellular damage.
我们身体里的大多数细胞都有细胞外基质。
So most of the cells or body have extracellular matrices.
这些基质会积累损伤。
These accumulate damage.
如果你只是改变细胞内部的年龄，那可能对细胞外基质有好处，但可能无法完全解决很多随年龄增长而积累或出错的问题。
If you're only altering the age inside of cells, that may benefit the ECM, but it might not fully solve a lot of the things that accumulate or go wrong with age.
所以我觉得这必须是一个多管齐下的方法。
And so I think it's gonna have to be a very multipronged approach.
遗憾的是，我不认为会有一种神奇的方法能解决所有问题。
I don't think there's just gonna be one shining thing that can can solve everything sadly.
我想问一下这个问题。
I wanna ask about this.
我们开头提到过，但因为我很多朋友真的觉得肽类能那样，他们就觉得，好吧。
We touched on it at the beginning, but just because so many of my friends do think peptides can even be that, they look at like, alright.
我吃了这个。
I take this.
我这辈子都瘦了。
I'm skinny for the rest of my life.
就像那样……
It's like that's...
也许对有些人来说就够了。
Maybe that's all some people need.
但确实，我很好奇，你知道，人们吃它来减肥、长头发。
But yeah, I'm just so curious, know, people taking it for weight loss, for getting their hair back.
就是这种药物组合。
It's this cocktail of drugs.
每个人都觉得，我的那个是最好的肽类产品。
Everyone's kind of my guy has the best peptides.
我觉得这个挺安全的。
I get this this one's safe.
你怎么知道那个世界里哪些是真的，哪些只是炒作和噱头，还是说……
How do you know what's real in that world versus what's kind of just narrative and hype or is it...
你会去读研究论文吗？
Are you reading papers?
我知道你不是肽类专家，但你看这些东西的时候，你是怎么判断的，然后告诉别人该不该用？
I know you're not like peptide specialists but when you look at some of this stuff like how do you just decide and you say guys you shouldn't be doing this or guys you should be.
就算你不一定告诉他们，你自己心里是怎么做决定的？
Not even if you necessarily tell them but, like, for your own self, like, how do you make that, how do you decide?
我呢……
And I...
我算是那种……
I'm I'm like the...
可能答案比较无聊，我其实什么肽都不吃。
Probably the boring answer, which I don't take any peptides.
我同意你的看法。
I'm with you.
我觉得，未来十年里，我可能会尝试的干预措施，大概就是那些我觉得最有希望的。
I I think there, you know, there are the interventions that I find, probably, like, the the most likely that I would take in the next ten years.
但说到怎么筛选这些东西，真的很难，因为数据太有限了。
But in terms of of how I sort through things, it's really hard because there's just so limited data.
所以从某种意义上说，我确实很欣赏那些敢于探索、当先锋的人。
And and that's why in some sense, I do love that people are being pioneers in terms of doing more exploration.
因为如果只依赖数据，真的很难快速取得进展。
Because in some sense, like, if we only rely upon data, it's it's just really hard to make fast progress.
现有的数据。
Data that already exists.
不好意思。
Excuse me.
所以我们应该积极尝试用各种不同的方式去生成大量新数据。
So we should be actively trying to generate a lot new data in in in many different ways.
我对这个领域的问题是，当人们基于明显不扎实或不是真实效应量的数据做出巨大声明时。
Now my problems with the space are when people make huge claims about things based off of data that clearly isn't robust or isn't real effect sizes.
比如，单一个案研究，大多数时候无法提供足够的证据来确定某件事是否有效，除非效应量非常非常显著，而这些肽类很可能达不到这种程度。
Like, n of one, most of the time cannot tell you enough evidence to know for sure that something works unless it's a really, really dramatic effect size, which a lot of these peptides probably aren't having.
但确实有一些有趣的、关于衰老领域的小道传闻，跟这些肽类有关。
But there are some interesting, like, tidbits of, like, aging field lore with some of these peptides.
比如其中一种，大家最常提到的，BPC 157。
Like one of them, the most common that people talk about, BPC 157.
对。
Yep.
人们喜欢讨论它的机制，说它影响VEGF，促进血管的血管生成。
People like to talk about its mechanism in terms of affecting VEGF, increasing angiogenesis of our blood vessels.
有些人，可能也是合理的，对此感到有点紧张或谨慎，因为癌症、肿瘤学，很多癌症在一定程度上是由血管生成增加驱动的。
And some people, probably rightfully so, they get a little nervous or cautious around that because, cancer, oncology, a lot of cancers are driven in part by increased angiogenesis.
所以这关系有点微妙。
So it's a little bit of a sketchy relationship there.
但其实有更早的研究，大概五年前在衰老领域的科学期刊上发表的，显示如果提高小鼠体内的VEGF，它们的寿命实际上会延长20%到25%。
But there's actually older papers, probably, like, five year old papers now in the aging field in in science that show if you increase VEGF in mice, they actually live, 20 to 25% longer.
这个结果非常可靠。
Very robustly.
这是我在小鼠身上见过的最近期、统计功效最强的寿命实验之一。
This is one of, like, the the most well powered recent lifespan experiments I've seen in in mice.
所以BPC 157有可能和这个机制有关，但在看到确凿证据之前，我不会建议任何人去服用它。
So, you know, there is a chance that b p c one five seven has some sort of relation to that mechanism, but I will refuse to tell a single soul to take it until I see it proven.
甚至……
Or even...
你甚至不知道你吃的是不是真正的BPC 157。
You don't even know if what you're taking is BPC one five seven.
这也是问题的一部分。
That's part of the problem too.
这确实是问题的一大关键。
That's a huge part of the problem.
供应量真是疯了。
Supply is nuts.
在研究中，当人们真正仔细检查这些肽类产品以及那些来路不明的来源时，我觉得大多数人都会很失望，因为实际成分和标签上写的差太多了。
In the studies when people actually have really looked at what is in these peptides and and things sold from sketchy sources, I think most people are very disappointed in in terms of seeing how much is actually the thing that's on the label.
我想知道对你来说是不是也一样难。
I was trying to figure out if it's just as hard for you.
我有时候会看看推特。
I mean, I look at Twitter sometimes.
上面是马丁·史克雷利在跟那个肽类产品的创始人吵架。
It's Martin Shkreli arguing with the founder of this peptide thing.
还有我朋友跟我说，我保证这东西真的很好。
It's my friend telling me, I promise this this stuff's good.
我真不知道该信谁。
I don't know who the hell to trust.
我确信是这样。
I mean, I'm sure it is.
看起来是有效果的。
It seems like it's working.
你看起来状态不错，兄弟。
You look good, man.
我也不太清楚。
I don't know.
然后我看到了这条新闻。
And then I saw this news.
FDA发布了一些文件，建议七种主要肽类中一种都不要加入503A清单。
The FDA dropped these docs recommending zero of the seven big peptides get added to the five zero three a list.
我甚至不知道那是什么意思。
I don't even know what that means.
这是否意味着肽类会变得更加突出？
Does that mean peptides are going become more prominent?
这是否意味着FDA在规范管理？
Does that mean the FDA is regular?
就连关于这个领域的新闻，我都觉得，我不太……
Like even the news about this space, I'm like, I don't...
那是……
Is that...
这是不是意味着我们都能在CVS买到肽了，还是说我们还得用比特币在一些网站上买？
Does that mean we're all going to be able to buy peptides at CVS or does that mean we have to keep buying them you know, with Bitcoin on some website?
就是说，关于肽的新闻到底是什么？
Like, what is the news about peptides?
它们是变得更容易买到，还是更难买到？
Are they becoming easier to get, harder to get?
你对这个行业的发展方向有什么看法？
What's kinda your your view on where the industry goes?
不一定是要用它们，而是说，它们是在加速发展，还是怎么回事？
Not necessarily to take them, but, like, are they accelerating, or what's happening there?
说实话。
I'll be honest.
这不是我的领域。
Not my domain.
我没有关注最新的动态。
I do not follow the latest.
我的意思是，我只知道那些大播客想让这成为热门话题。
Like, I mean It's just All I know is that, you know, big podcasts wanted this to be a thing.
真的。
I swear.
这就是播客的力量。
This is the power of podcasts.
我知道。
I know.
大播客想让这成为热门话题，现在它
Big podcasts wanted it to be a thing, and now it
就是。他们告诉我
is They told me
让我去问
to ask
他们让我来问你。
they told me to ask you to.
所以这就是为什么……
That's why...
那它到底应不应该火？
So should it be a thing?
我觉得我对此持怀疑态度，因为证据不足，但我看到的一切都表明FDA在肽类方面变得越来越宽松。
That's where I think I'm much more skeptical, based on the level of evidence we have, but everything I'm seeing does seem like the FDA is becoming way more lenient, in terms of peptides.
百事大厂。
Big Pepsi.
大播客让我把它加进去。
Big podcast asked me to include it.
那是为了赞助。
That was that was for the the sponsorship there.
我想继续往下聊。
I wanna move on.
那么AI在这个领域到底解锁了什么，我想搞清楚的是，这算是个算力问题吗？
So AI and and what that's unlocking here in this field, I'm trying to figure out is it compute problem?
还是数据问题？
Is it a data problem?
还是……
Is it...
就是说，AI到底在加速什么？
Like what what is AI actually accelerating with all all of this?
我看到英伟达对礼来做了大笔投资，Anthropic现在也成了生物科技公司，他们是怎么用AI的？
When I look at Nvidia making their big investment with Eli Lilly here, when I see Anthropic is now a biotech company, like, how are they using AI?
而且每个人做法都不太一样。
And everyone's doing something a little bit different.
所以我觉得答案可能各不相同，但AI到底在这里解锁了什么？
So I'm I'm sure the answer is a little bit different there, but, like, what is AI actually unlocking here?
所以我觉得到目前为止，我看到的两个最显著的变化，真的非常惊人，就像那种阶梯式的飞跃，一个是在分子生成方面。
So I'd say the the two most dramatic shifts I've seen so far, which have been really unbelievable in in terms of just, like, the step function changeability with it, one has been on the molecule generation side of things.
现在对于某些药物类型来说，生成分子变得非常容易、快速和便宜。
So now for certain modalities of medicine it is remarkably easier and faster and cheaper to generate the molecules.
当然，还不是完全跳跃，没有人类，没有湿实验室参与，但已经非常接近了。
Again, not like full leap, no humans, no wet lab in the loop, but a lot closer to that.
我一会儿会再详细讲讲这个。
And I'll get into that in a little more in a in a second.
第二个类别，我觉得是大多数行业里大多数人都在经历的，就是日常工作的很多部分，速度能提高30%到95%。
The the second category is just, I think, what most people are experiencing in in most industries, which is you could just do so much of the day to day, like, 30 to 95% faster.
不管是监管文件、研究竞争对手、寻找新的业务发展合作机会，还是快速了解一个新靶点。
You know, whether it's a regulatory filing or looking into your competition or looking for new business development partnering opportunities, getting up to speed on a new target.
所有这些都变得容易多了。
All of these have just been made so much easier.
所以我觉得我们在治疗领域每天都在感受到这种变化，现在运营一家治疗公司几乎变得普及了，这在一年半或两年前是不可能的。
And so I think we are really feeling that on a day to day basis in therapeutics where it's now become almost democratized to to run a therapeutics company in a way that it wasn't like a year and a half or two years ago.
我觉得这真的很酷。
And I think that's really cool.
但在分子方面，我们看到像Nabilo Bio这样的公司，或者Chai Discovery，它们更属于这个领域。
But on the molecule side of things, we're seeing, like, companies like, Nabilo Bio, for example, or, Chai Discovery is more in this realm.
我们看到越来越多的努力让你能够生成几乎零样本的分子，这既适用于抗体，也适用于小分子。
We're we're seeing a lot more efforts that enable you to to generate almost like zero shot molecules, and that's happening both for antibodies and and small molecules.
现在我们还有很长的路要走，目前通常只是针对那些靶点制造现有药物的新版本，而且他们能做得非常快。
Now we have a very, long ways to go and today, like, the extent is usually they're just like making newer versions of existing medicines against those targets and they're able to do it really fast.
但下一步，我认为是不可避免的，就是能够针对新靶点进行这种零样本分子生成。
But the next step, which I think is inevitable, is being able to do kind of these zero shot molecule generation even against new targets.
我读到过一篇博客，是一个叫妮可·菲茨杰拉德的女孩写的。
I was reading this, there was this blog, this girl, Nicole Fitzgerald.
我觉得公司叫Tasset Labs，她提到很快我们就会有一百万家零人员的生物科技公司。
I think the company's called Tasset Labs and she was talking about soon we're gonna have a million zero person biotech companies.
就像你可以轻松编码一个SaaS产品，或者轻松编码一个预测市场，或者这周人们正在构建的任何东西一样。
Almost in the sense of you can vibe code a SaaS product or vibe code some prediction market or whatever people are building this this week.
但是只要有足够的claw代币，就能一次搞定。
But with enough claw tokens, can just one shot.
你可以做研究。
You can do the research.
你可以做所有事情。
You can do everything.
你刚才说还有一些步骤做不到。
You were kind of saying there's still some steps you can't do.
我们没有湿实验室的能力，也没有能到处走动的机器人来做那些事。
We don't have the wet lab capability and we don't have robots that can walk around yet and do all those.
你怎么看？
What's your take?
我们离那一步还很远吗？
Are we still like really far away from that?
当你听到说我可以随便创办一家生物技术公司，是不是有点太雄心勃勃了？
Is that a little bit, too ambitious when you hear that, that like, you know, I could spin up a biotech company.
比如说，我真的知道AI会帮我们吗？
Like, can I really, you know, I know AI is going to help us?
我们可以一次性生成一个分子，但那还差得很远。
We can one shot a molecule, but that's still very far.
你怎么看？
Like what's your take on?
看起来还是需要很多资源和很多聪明人聚在一起，才能真正做成这件事。
It still seems like a lot of resources and and a lot of smart people you have to get in a room to actually make this work.
所以，瓶颈和护城河在于，AI还没有产生那么大的影响的地方，是把那个分子拿去审批并证明它。
So so the bottleneck and the moat, where AI is not making nearly as big of an impact yet is on taking that molecule and then getting it approved and proven
明白了。
I see.
对某种疾病的安全性和有效性。
For safety and efficacy for a disease.
比如，分子生成这部分，确实很难。
Like, the molecule generation part, it's hard.
这很贵。
It's expensive.
这很长，很长。
It's it's it's long.
但相对于整个流程，从拿到那个优化后的分子到最终获批，这部分才是药物开发中成本和时间的绝大部分所在。
But relative to the rest of the whole process of taking that then optimized molecule and getting to an approval, like, that is where a ridiculous proportion of the cost and time is in drug development.
所以，这几乎成了某种意义上的最后前沿——选择最有可能成功的东西进入那个流程，然后以最便宜、最经济的方式资助和运行那个流程。
And and so, like, that has become almost like the final frontier in in some sort of a sense is choosing the right things that are most likely to work going into that stack, and then funding and running that stack as cheaply and most economic as possible.
大家都对AI革新医学兴奋不已。
And everyone was so buzzy about AI revolutionizing medicine.
但在过去六年里，对我们生产药物能力影响大得多的，其实是中国生物科技。
What has made a way bigger impact in terms of our ability to to produce medicines over the past, six years has just been China biotech.
在我看来，中国的生物科技公司对药物开发格局和我们制造药物的能力产生了大得多的影响，而且这跟AI技术完全无关。
Like, biotechs in China have made, in my opinion, a way bigger impact to the drug development landscape and to our ability to make medicines, and it was...
跟AI技术一点关系都没有。
You know, had nothing to do with AI technology.
其实就是一支技术非常高超、成本又很低的劳动力队伍，对吧。
It was simply, an extremely highly skilled, cheap labor force Okay.
再加上一种疯狂的工作态度，还有能力……
A crazy work ethic, and an ability...
还有监管环境，以及能在极短的时间内在人体上测试药物，而且成本只是美国的一小部分。
A regulatory environment, an ability to test things in humans for, you know, on dramatically shorter time scales and at a fraction of the cost of of what you can in The US.
所以要达到那种未来，比如一百万人各自运营零员工的生物科技公司，我觉得他们还是需要几百万美元的资金，对吧。
And so to to get to that future of, like, a a million people running zero person biotech companies, I think they would still need millions of dollars each Yeah.
才能运转起来。
To to run it.
而且这……
And that's...
我觉得这正是AI目前真正难以解决的问题——就是如何跨越药物研发中那段漫长、昂贵又艰难的阶段。
Like, this is the part that I think AI is still really struggling with is how do you how do you solve that gap of of just the long, expensive, difficult part of drug development.
我本来以为会是AI，没想到是中国生物科技。
I was not expecting China biotech, but the AI.
这真是……
That's a...
太不可思议了。
That's wild.
比如，我们大概五六年前去过。
Like, we we went, like, I think five or six years ago.
我记得当时大型制药公司许可的药物中，大约有3%到5%来自中国。
I think it was about three to 5% of drugs licensed by big pharma companies came from China.
而去年，这个比例上升到了大约一半，大型制药公司许可的药物有一半来自中国。
And last year, I believe that rose to about half of drugs, were licensed from China for for big pharma.
现在还是这样吗？
Is that still the case now?
人工智能正在缩小这个差距吗？
Is AI closing that gap?
因为我们有时候拥有最好的模型。
Because we sometimes have the best models.
我知道不是每个人都能用上这些，而且……
I know that not everyone can access them and...
还是说现在仍然……
Or is it still...
现在还是这个趋势吗？
That's still kind of the trend?
中国现在还是这么强大吗？而且这就是趋势。
Is China still this powerhouse now and That's that's the trend.
比如说，我们会……
Like, we will...
在美国，AI要缩小这个差距，可能还得再等三年左右，我们才能真正开始看到数据变化。
We won't see AI in The US closing that gap for probably another three years or so where we're actually might to start see the data.
要看到AI开始扭转这个趋势，可能还要更久。
It it probably even be way longer than that that we'll see AI start to reverse that trend.
但是那……
But that...
这对我来说是最疯狂的事情之一，就是AI周围有这么多炒作，这么多钱，然后中国就突然冒出来了。
That's been one of the, like, craziest things to me is there's just so much hype, so much money around AI, and then it was just like China Clearly.
不是靠新技术，而是靠非常便宜的高技能劳动力和疯狂的996工作文化来实现的。
With not new technology, but just very cheap, highly skilled labor and and crazy nine nine six work ethic making it happen.
这太不可思议了。
That's insane.
那你对现在一些AI公司转型做生物科技有什么看法？
What about, what's your take on some of these AI companies now becoming biotech companies?
比如英伟达和礼来的合作，还有那个十亿美元的旧金山实验室。
You have Nvidia and Eli Lilly, their partnership, billion dollar SF lab.
还有谷歌的DeepMind和谷歌的贡献，你很久以前就提到过。
You have, the spin out of Google, DeepMind and Google's contributions you were talking about for a long time ago.
但现在他们甚至创建了Isomorphic Labs。
But even now, them creating isomorphic labs.
还有Sam Altman个人投资了Retro。
You have Sam Altman personally funding retro.
现在还有Anthropic，他们有一个……
You have Anthropic now, they have a...
感觉每个星期他们都会宣布一个新的生物技术公司，我们要投资这个。
Every single week it feels like they have a new announcement of their biotech company, we're investing in this.
你怎么看他们这么做，而不是直接投资那些正在做……的公司？
What's your take on why they're doing that as opposed to just investing in companies that are doing...
感觉，怎么说呢，我理解AI会推动很多行业的发展，包括编程和其他领域，但感觉他们特别专注于自己变成生物技术公司。
It it feels like, I don't know, it's, I understand AI is gonna advance a lot of industries and coding and all these other, but it feels like there's a very specific focus on them becoming biotech companies themselves.
你觉得这是为什么？
Like, why do you think that's happening?
先说明一下，我们在这些公司里有很多朋友。
You know, with the caveat, we've got plenty of friends across those.
当然。
Sure.
包括我们的投资人、早期员工，还有你提到的那些公司里的人。
Of our investors, our very early employees, and all those that you named.
但我的印象和我看到的，比如公开的信息，像Anthropic，对吧。
But my impression and what I've seen, like, publicly, for example, from Anthropic Right.
他们发布了一张很棒的市场地图，标出了AI可能产生最大影响的领域，以及AI已经产生了多大的影响。
Like, they put out this great market map, where they were like, areas, where AI could make the biggest impact, how much impact AI has made.
如果你看这张市场地图，生命科学是他们最重视的领域之一。
If you look at this market map, life science is one of their highest areas.
他们公开谈论过他们的生命科学团队，说生命科学可能是Anthropic在市场上第二大重点。
They publicly talked about on their life science team that life science might be the second biggest focus ananthropic in terms of market.
哇。
Wow.
这……
It's it's...
看起来这肯定在他们最重视的前五个领域里，他们真的在深入钻研，或者非常认真地对待。
It seems like it's certainly in their top five of what they're really like sinking their teeth into or or looking at very seriously.
我觉得原因是生物技术、治疗药物，这是一个……
And I think the the reason for that is biotech, therapeutics, it's a...
它有一个非常强大的专利保护壁垒。
It it just has a very strong patent protected moat.
收入非常可观。
It's huge revenues.
我觉得很多人没有意识到，司美格鲁肽和替尔泊肽的收入加起来，比OpenAI和Anthropic的总收入还要多。
I don't think a lot of people realize this, but semaglutide and tirzepatide have more revenue, than OpenAI and anthropic combined.
如果你再看看收入增长率的话，那更是……
And if you even look at, like, rates of revenue growth, it's...
你可能会以为科技公司在GLP-1类药物上占据主导地位。
You you know, you would assume that the tech companies are are dominating the GLP ones.
其实不是。
No.
GLP-1类药物在这么高的收入基数上，增长速度还非常惊人。
Like, the GLP ones are growing at crazy rates in terms of that very high revenue amount.
所以我觉得，Anthropic、OpenAI和谷歌都在观察这个领域，然后说，好吧。
And and so I think in in Thropic, in in OpenAI and and Google, they're looking around, and they're saying, okay.
我们的估值已经高得离谱了。
We've got crazy high valuations.
我们需要巨额的收入。
We need crazy amounts of revenue.
这些收入增长从哪里来呢？
Where can that revenue growth come from?
如果有一种产品能比我们整个公司在生物科技领域的收入还多，那可能是一个非常明智的增长收入的方向。
Well, if only one product can command more revenue than my entire company has in in this biotech world, that could be a potentially very smart place to grow revenue.
而且，我觉得现在生物科技领域作为投资方向最令人兴奋的地方就在于，它只是……
And, inherently, I think what is very exciting about biotech world right now as a place to invest is it's just...
它……
It...
它比大多数行业都更能抵御AI的冲击。
It's it's very AI resilient compared to most industries.
你不用担心Anthropic一夜之间或者一年之内就把你的领域给消灭了。
You're just not gonna have Anthropic wipe out your fields in in a day or a year.
这根本不可能发生。
It's just not gonna happen.
比如，为什么？
Like, why?
就是……
Just...
还有很多难题要解决。
There's still too many hard problems to solve.
就算我们把所有智能都投入进去，还是得花那么长时间。
Even we throw all the intelligence at it, it's still just gonna take that long.
没错。
Exactly.
而且这还是个高度受监管的行业。
And it's it's just a highly regulated industry.
我觉得，像马克·安德森就特别喜欢发推说，受监管行业的价格会一直涨涨涨，而不受监管的行业价格会不断下降，走向商品化。
I think, like, Mark Andreessen loves tweeting about how the price of regulated industries goes up and up and up over time and the price of nonregulated industries goes down and and pushes towards commoditization.
大多数科技最终都会走向商品化。
Like, most tech over time goes to commoditization.
但生物技术治疗领域不是这样。
Biotech therapeutic world does not.
明白了。
I see.
从某种意义上说，它确实会商品化，因为每种药物在专利到期后都会变成仿制药，而且这些药物在某种程度上几乎给人类带来无限的好处，过了专利期后，我们就能以几美分或几美元的价格获得这些治疗方法，但这是一个受监管的行业。
I mean, it does in some sense in that every drug becomes generic after patent life, expires, and it's like this almost indefinite benefit to humanity that we have these cures that are available for, like, like, pennies or dollars, after a certain extent, but it's a regulated industry.
它不会完全被人工智能淘汰。
Like, it's it's just not going to get completely wiped out by AI.
而且我认为……
And I think that...
而且它的收入规模巨大，从某种意义上说，比人工智能领域大得多。
And it's massive revenues, in some sense, way bigger than the AI world.
这对那些前沿实验室来说非常有吸引力。
That's pretty appealing to these frontier labs.
百分之百。
A 100%.
我在看Fable的时候……
I was looking at when Fable...
就是他们差不多把Fable下架的时候。
When they kinda took Fable away.
我也不太清楚。
I don't know.
我记得看到新闻说它要回来了，具体看这期节目什么时候上线。
I think I saw news it's coming back depending on when this goes live.
可能有人会问Fable什么时候……
Someone's probably asking Fable, you know, when...
谁知道呢？
Who knows?
但肯定会有新的模型被禁。
But there's gonna be a new model that's banned.
这发展得太快了。
It's happening so fast.
对。
Yep.
他们唯一限制的领域之一就是生物技术。
One of the only things they blocked was biotech.
他们还限制了一些代码安全审计相关的东西，也限制了一些别的，都是为了保护大家的安全。
They they also blocked some of the security audit stuff for code and they blocked different, trying to keep us all safe.
但我觉得这挺有意思的。
But I thought that was so curious.
当我想到AI在这里的应用时，感觉这是少数几个AI似乎在回报人类的领域之一——随着机器智能扩展这个领域，加速发展，它让人类活得更久，而相比之下，我们能用AI做的很多其他事情。
When I think about AI's application here, this feels like one of the the only fields where AI is kinda like returning the favor of as machine intelligence expands this field, accelerates things, it keeps humans alive longer versus a lot of the other things that we can apply AI to.
就像，如果我们周围有一百万个机器人，那真的对我们有帮助吗？
It's like, is that helping us if we have a million robots around?
比如，那是在取代我们吗？
Like, is that replacing us?
生物技术这块，感觉AI是在帮我们延长生命，但他们却限制我们使用它。
Biotech, it feels like AI is keeping us here and they're kind of keeping us away from using it.
你觉得为什么用这些模型搞生物技术对我们来说很危险？
Like, what's your take on why biotech is dangerous for us to use with these models?
就是，什么
Like, what
我，我……
I I...
我肯定不是这方面的专家，也不是最了解最新情况的人，但我的看法是，首先，我非常感激几乎所有前沿实验室的创始人都非常重视生物安全，也重视流行病和生物恐怖主义带来的威胁。
I'm certainly not an expert on this and and not the most up to date on it, but my my take is I definitely, one, appreciate that the founders of pretty much all the frontier labs deeply care about biosecurity and about the threat that pandemics and and bioterrorism have.
我觉得这本身就是……
I think that is inherently...
我们真的很幸运，情况是这样的。
Like, we are very blessed that that's the case.
我觉得如果把大多数财富500强的CEO放到前沿实验室来管理，他们可能会放手让人去做。
I think if you threw most Fortune 500 CEOs and put them in charge of the Frontier Labs, they Let them do it.
他们根本不会在乎这些。
They, like, would not give a shit about this.
所以他们就会说，管他呢，继续往前冲，无所谓。
So they would just be like, whatever, plow forward, like, doesn't matter.
我至少非常感激，这些前沿实验室的领导者们，真的非常关心对人类存在的威胁。
And I at least, like, feel very grateful, that our our leaders, of these Frontier Labs, like, deeply care about existential threats to humanity.
这是否意味着我认为他们应该更严肃地对待这些事情，或者做得更多？
Does that mean I think they, like, take things as seriously as they should or do as much as they should?
不是。
No.
而且我觉得他们很多时候会犯错，我也觉得在他们的位置上，要一直做对真的很难。
And I think, like, they get it wrong a lot of the time, and I think it's really hard in their job to get it right all the time.
但是……
But but...
所以我主要想说的是，我非常感激他们确实关心这件事。
So, I mean, my main takeaway is I'm just very grateful that they do care about this.
对于最近的这次发布，你觉得有必要完全关闭访问权限吗？
With the most recent release, do I think it was fully necessary to shut off Access?
可能没必要，但我能接受一开始采取更谨慎的做法，而且他们这次很快就调整了，我觉得这是个好兆头。
Probably not, but, like, I'm I'm okay with a more precautionary approach at first, and, you know, they were pretty quick to to to reverse things in in this case, which I which I think bode well.
这两者缺一不可。
You can't have one without the other.
如果我们有重大进展，AI帮我们了解了生物学的新知识，那...
If we have a big advancement, the AI helps us understand something new about biology, it's...
别人也可能利用这一点来对付我们。
Someone can use that against us too.
完全同意。
Absolutely.
但回到你之前提到的那个点，我...
But to kind of your earlier point there, I am...
我也很兴奋，因为这些前沿实验室的领导者确实看到了AI做好事的潜力。
I'm also very excited that the leaders of these frontier labs do see the potential of AI doing good.
因为我同意你的看法。
Because I agree with you.
你看看AI的各种应用，就会觉得，这真的是……
You look at all the applications of AI, and you're like, it's it's...
有些人确实很担心，老兄。
Some it's People are worried, man.
这不是非黑即白的事情。
It's It's black not and white.
我知道。
I know.
我不确定很多这些应用到底有多好。
I don't know how good a lot of these applications are.
比如，我对其中很多是乐观的，但这并不是非黑即白的，你不能肯定地说这就是好的。
Like, I'm optimistic about a lot of them, but it's it's not, like, black and white, and you can't be like, for sure, this is good.
至少在生物学领域，除了生物恐怖主义之外，很容易说，是的。
At least in the biology worlds, besides for bioterrorism, it's pretty easy to be like, yes.
这就像是，对人类来说是一件大好事，是我们应该去做的事情。
This is just, like, is a great thing for humanity and, like, is something we should do.
而且确实有一些方面，我觉得这些前沿实验室真的很想通过在这个领域做好事来获得好的公关形象。
And there's certainly some aspect to that that I think these Frontier Labs really wanna be associated with great PR from doing good in this space.
他们肯定知道，如果前沿实验室被视为治愈癌症的机构，他们就不会被关闭、限制或监管。
They definitely know that if, you know, the Frontier Lab is seen as curing cancer, they're not going to get shut down or restricted or regulated.
所以，是的，躲在那个面纱后面是不是有点吓人？
So, yeah, is it a little scary to hide behind that veil?
也许吧。
Maybe.
但是，我确实认为，这显然对人类有巨大的好处，他们非常关心这件事。
But, like, I I do think it's it's, yeah, it's, like, obviously a huge net good for humanity that they care a lot about this.
另一件很酷的事情是，即使在我们自己的行业，我来自加密货币领域，你看到了布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗，我们已经聊过了，还有像CZ和维塔利克这样的人。
The other thing that's been cool, I mean, even in our own industry where I came from crypto, you had Brian Armstrong, we've already talked about, but, people like CZ and Vitalik.
维塔利克·布特林，以太坊的创始人，开源生物技术基金。
I mean, Vitalik Buterin, founder of ethereum, open source biotech fund.
我想我之前已经问过你这个问题了，就是这些来自不同领域的人是不是最近才开始说，好吧，我们得在生物技术和长寿领域汇合。
I guess I already asked you this of whether or not that's relatively new of all these different walks of life saying, alright, we have to converge on biotech longevity.
这是个重点。
This is a focus.
你是不是一直都有看到这种情况，只是因为我最近关注了，所以才注意到，哦，哇。
Have you been seeing that the whole time and it's just because I'm focused on it now so I noticed it of, oh, wow.
我认识这些人。
I know these people.
他们来自别的行业。
They're they're from another industry.
他们觉得这很重要。
They think it's important.
你是不是一直看到这种情况，就是如果你有很多钱，你就会想关注长寿，因为你想活得更久。
Have you just constantly been seeing this of, like, if you have a lot of money, you wanna focus on longevity because you wanna live a long time.
什么……
What...
有意思的是，我觉得大家都有这么个想法，而且我经常看到头条新闻说有多少人关心这个领域，投入了大量资金。
What's interesting is I I think there's this notion and I see headlines all the time of how many people care about this field and put big funding in this field.
但实际上，这个领域获得的资金量是非常非常少的。
The amount of funding that's been put in this field is tiny tiny.
跟其他领域相比。
Compared to other fields.
简直微不足道。
Like, absolutely miniscule.
你看看这个领域的投资额跟AI比，那简直就像……
If you look like the amount of investment in this field compared to AI, it's like it's like...
在柱状图上你都看不到它。
You wouldn't even see it on a bar chart.
所以当我听到这些的时候，我就觉得，对，没错。
And and so when I hear about it, I'm all like, oh, yeah.
这只是一个很小的开始，未来我们还会看到更多。
It's, like, great as a tiny start to what we're gonna see.
我们现在只是刚刚开始有人关注这个领域，并投入资源。
We are just in the earliest innings of people caring and putting resources in the space.
你提到了Vitalik Buterin，我真的很欣赏他那种未来主义者的眼光。
You you mentioned Vitalik Buterin, someone who, you know, I really appreciate how much of a futurist he is.
他非常关心人类，并且一直在思考对人类来说最好的下一步。
He really cares deeply about humanity and and thinking through next best steps for humanity.
实际上，大约三年半前，他参与过我们的一些事情。
He was actually, a part of kind of, like, three and a half years ago.
当时我们在规划下一代基金的样子，和他进行了一次很棒的白板讨论。
We had a great whiteboarding session with him when we were outlining what the next generation of our fund could look like.
不错。
Nice.
他当时真的很希望我们把它命名为FSL，就是“比光速还快”，我觉得这个名字太棒了。
And he really wanted us actually to name it FSL, like faster than the speed of light, which I thought was an amazing name.
我觉得那真的很酷。
I thought it was really cool.
好名字。
Good name.
我们最后用了劳拉之前给她运营的一个旧加速器基金起的名字，叫“时代一号”。
We ended up going with a name Laura had previously used for one of the old accelerator funds she ran, which was age one.
但是和维塔利克聊起来，就是……
But Vitalik, just talking with him about it, it's just...
看到他多么认为这是未来不可或缺的一部分，真的非常酷。
It was really cool to see how much he saw that this was an integral part of the future.
而且我……
And I...
一开始我接触网络国家的时候，我并不是来自加密货币领域。
At first, when I encountered network states, like, I do not come from the crypto space.
我确实帮忙管理过一个以太坊投资者詹姆斯·菲克尔的家办，他是个很棒的人，但我不是来自加密货币世界的。
I did help run a family office of of an Ethereum, investor, James Fickle, some fantastic human, but I did not come from the crypto world.
所以当我进来的时候，有太多事情在发生。
And so when I came in, you know, there's so many things going on.
真的很有意思。
It's really entertaining.
有好有坏吧。
Some good, some bad.
我就觉得，我是个科学家。
I'm like, I'm a scientist.
我是个书呆子。
I'm a nerd.
我基本上就是埋头专注于衰老这个领域。
I'm, like, mostly just blinders on focused on the field of aging.
但对于网络国家，我一开始没搞懂，直到听了Vitalik讲，比如，好。
But with network states, I, like, didn't get it until I heard Vitalik talk about, like, okay.
你住在一个街区。
You live on a block.
你周围大部分食物都不健康。
Most of the food around you is unhealthy.
周围的环境有太多不健康的因素了。
So much of the environment is unhealthy.
想象一下，你可以选择住在一个网络国家里，一个社区里，健康不是你需要特意去追求的东西。
Like, imagine just, like, having the choice to live in a network state, a community where, like, health wasn't just, like, something you had to seek out.
而是默认的。
It was the default.
你可以选择住在一个本来就健康的社区，和那些认同这种理念的人在一起，而不是只能和你碰巧出生在隔壁或者搬到你旁边的邻居住在一起。
Could just like choose to live in a community that was healthy by default and like with people who are aligned to that philosophy versus just like the neighbors you happen to be born next or or or move next or next to.
对，我觉得这个想法真的很酷。
And, yeah, I thought that was like such a cool framing.
他有点像……
He's like a...
我不知道。
I don't know.
有埃隆·马斯克，有维塔利克，还有某些特定的人。
I mean, there's an Elon Musk, there's Vitalik, there's like certain people.
他就是……
He just...
我觉得他对未来的一切都看得很透。
I feel like he sees the future on everything.
他是个非常了不起的人。
He's an impressive human being.
我想聊聊你是怎么投资的，还有Age One的一些背景故事。
I wanna get into how you invest and also just kind of history of age one.
我之前只是快速带过，但你能多讲讲你的学习经历，还有Laura的寿命基金吗？我记得那好像是第一个寿命基金。
I speed ran it, but can you give me more of a history of where you studied and then, Laura, her longevity fund, which I believe was the first ever longevity fund.
现在这个算是它的后续。
Now this has been the successor.
你能简单讲讲那段历史吗？
Can you just give, like, a little bit of history on that?
因为我不想就这么一笔带过。
Because I don't wanna just speed through it.
我也想试着理解一下。
Like, I'm trying to also understand it.
所以我的整个职业生涯基本上都要归功于劳拉的指导，但她也是你这辈子能遇到的最酷、最迷人的人之一。
So I owe pretty much, all my career to Laura, in in in terms of her mentorship, but she is one of the coolest, most fascinating humans you'll ever meet in your life.
她在新西兰长大，在家接受教育，完全与世隔绝，我觉得这挺出人意料的。
She grew up, homeschooled in New Zealand, like, totally off the grid, out of left field is kind of how I think about it.
然后她遇到了，或者说联系上了加州大学旧金山分校的一位教授。
And she met this, well, got connected to this professor at UCSF.
她给辛西娅·凯尼恩博士发了一封冷邮件。
She cold emailed doctor Cynthia Kenyon.
她是衰老研究领域的绝对先驱之一，发现了线虫中一个叫DAF-2的突变，这个突变显著延长了线虫的寿命。
She was one of the absolute pioneers of the aging field, found this, mutation in worms called DAF two that significantly extended the lifespan in worms.
这是第二个被证明的基因，当你突变它时，可以大幅延长线虫的寿命。
And this was the second ever gene shown when you mutate it, you can dramatically increase the lifespan of worms.
好的。
Okay.
第一个是age-1基因。
The first one was age one.
哦，对。
Oh, yeah.
这个基因是以线虫命名的。
We're named for worms.
当你完全突变线虫的age-1基因时，它们的寿命竟然能延长十倍，这太不可思议了。
When you do a full mutation in the age one gene in worms, can actually increase their lifespan 10 x, which is crazy.
因为我觉得很多人不会想到，在人类身上，哇，
Because I don't think a lot of people think in humans like, oh, wow.
我们能让一种动物的寿命延长十倍吗？
We can, like, 10 x the lifespan of an animal?
那在人类身上也能做到吗？
Like, could we do that in humans?
这是一个很有意思的概念验证。
It's it's interesting proof concept.
蠕虫能活多久？
How long do worms live?
抱歉。
Sorry.
我不想扯太远，但是，
I don't wanna go too much on a tangent, but, like,
接下来的半小时播客就聊这个吧，我很乐意。
how The next half hour of this podcast will be dedicated to I would love that.
是什么，
What is it,
大概十天
like, ten days
到
to a
一百天？
hundred days?
就像，
Like, it's
大概一年，或者虫子活到
like a year or worms out
其实，大概是三到四周。
of It's it's like, three weeks to four weeks.
所以，大概在二十到三十天之间。
So, like, in in the range of, like, twenty to thirty days.
那太不可思议了。
That's insane.
但最近，我们的一位创始人，她运营了一个慈善项目，叫Impetus Grants，是给衰老研究的快速资助，他们有一位教授成功把蠕虫的寿命延长到了将近一年，这太酷了。
But now, like, most recently, one of our founders, she ran, like, a philanthropy program, impetus grants, fast grants for aging, and they have a professor that was able to take out the lifespan of worms to pushing towards, like, a year, which is so cool.
但很多……总之……
But a lot Anyways...
抱歉。
Sorry.
虫子的事就说到这儿吧。
Enough on the worm.
虫子那期节目以后再说吧。
Worm episode will be the follow-up Yeah.
对。
Episode.
我们会
We will
做那期节目的。
do that.
不过劳拉是在新西兰长大的。
But Laura grew up in New Zealand.
她十岁的时候就直接给辛西娅·凯尼恩发了封邮件，说，嘿。
Cold emailed Cynthia Kenyon as a 10 year old and was like, hey.
我能去你的实验室工作吗？
Can I come work in your lab?
辛西娅就说，嘿。
Cynthia was like, hey.
去读这本书，《细胞分子生物学》。
Read this book, Molecular Biology of a Cell.
劳拉照做了。
Laura did.
她们聊得特别投机。
They nerded out about it.
辛西娅就邀请她去实验室工作。
Cynthia invited her to come work in a lab.
劳拉把全家搬到了……
Laura moved her family to...
旧金山这边，在辛西娅的实验室工作，开始研究延长线虫寿命。
Here in San Francisco to work in Cynthia's lab, started working on extending the lifespan of worms.
她14岁就去了麻省理工，学物理，16岁辍学，作为DELPHI奖学金的第一批学员，来创办我们的基金。
She went to MIT when she was 14 years old, to study in part physics, dropped out at 16 years old as a part of the first cohort of the DELPHI fellowship, to build our fund.
所以她...
And so she...
最初是以长寿基金的名义，在2011年创立的。
You know, originally under the name, the longevity fund, she built it in 2011.
她爸爸不得不替她签署所有文件，因为从法律上讲她还未成年。
Her dad had to sign all the paperwork for it because she legally was not an adult.
天哪。
Oh my gosh.
她的第一支基金做了五项重大投资。
Her first fund made five major investments.
其中四项成功上市了。
Four of them went on IPO.
我在2017年认识了她，那时她募集了第二支基金，从那时起她就开始提携我。
I met her in 2017, which is when she raised the second fund, and she kinda took me under her wing at that point.
我当时正在读博士第一年。
I was in the first year of my PhD.
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