455：Beer Crunchers 的道格·韦利基分享他对2026年精酿啤酒的预测

所以，这是我在2025年之前经常谈论的话题。

So this was something I was talking about a lot heading into 2025.

我认为我们看到很多啤酒厂推出了更多日式风格的啤酒，融入了这类风味，而且，这其实也不算新鲜事了。

I think we saw a lot of breweries making more Japanese inspired styles, working those kind of flavors, and, you know, not new again.

柚子风味已经流行了一段时间。

Yuzu's been around for a while.

芝加哥本地的Off Color Brewing早就推出了他们最受欢迎的啤酒之一Fierce的柚子版本。

Off Color Brewing here in Chicago has been making a yuzu version of Fierce, their one of their most popular beers for a while.

但我认为柚子的人气已经，你知道的，呈爆炸式增长。

But I think yuzu has been, you know, exploding in popularity.

对我来说，它就像一种无可挑剔的食材，非常讨人喜欢。

And it's just to me like a bulletproof ingredient in terms of being likable.

我觉得任何加了点柚子的东西尝起来都很棒。

I think just like anything with some yuzu in it tastes wonderful.

我就是觉得它是一种很棒的水果。

I just think it's a great fruit.

另一个我开始看到出现但更为小众的是樱花风味。

Another one that's more obscure that I've started to see popping up is cherry blossom.

比如我看到无酒精啤酒厂Rationale推出了一款樱花啤酒，这引起了我的注意，然后我突然发现其他地方也开始出现这种风味。

So I've seen like the NA brewery Rationale released a cherry blossom beer, and that got on my radar, and then all of a sudden it started standing out to me as I'd see it other places.

但这又是将日本文化融入美国酿造的一种方式。

But another way to connect Japanese culture into American brewing.

而且当这些啤酒是由具有相关背景的酿酒厂创始人或首席酿酒师提出时，我更加喜爱这些概念。

And I love these concepts even more when that's the background of the brewery founder or the head brewer proposing these beers.

就像我和毛伊岛酿酒公司的一位团队成员聊过，因为我当时在谈论他们做的一款大米拉格，他们非常强调这种大米的来源故事，以及那个小镇，还有他们用来酿造大米拉格的这种大米的历史。

Like I talked to a member of the team at Maui Brewing, because I was talking about a rice lager that they do, and they put a lot of emphasis into the story of where that rice is sourced from, and the town, and the history of this type of rice that they used to make their rice lager.

我当时就觉得，这很酷。

And I'm like, that is cool.

如果换成我来做这件事，就不会有这么好的历史和传承背景。

If it were like me doing this, it doesn't have as good of a a history and lineage to it.

但是当故事有了这额外的一层，它就给了你很多弹药，让人们更愿意尝试，因为你可以把很多点联系起来，而不仅仅是说，我们通常是一家浑浊IPA酒厂，但这是我们做的一款大米拉格，就这样而已。

But when there's that extra layer to the story, it gives you a lot of ammunition for getting people excited to try this when you can connect the dots to to a lot more than just, you know, here, we're normally a hazy IPA brewery, but here's a rice lager we made, and that's kinda it.

那也没关系，没问题。

That doesn't you know, that's fine.

它可能味道很好，但我更喜欢那种背后还有更多故事的。

It probably might taste very good, but I love it when there's, you know, a little more to it.

我认为，当这些事物能走得更远、引起更广泛共鸣时，正是如此。

And I think that's when when these things can travel farther and resonate wider.

当然。

Sure.

当然。

Sure.

讲好真实的故事，依然非常重要。

Telling that authentic story, still so important.

知道，因为有些，是的。

Know, since some Yep.

我记得一些有趣的。

Interesting ones I remember.

我知道，我记得几年前在多伦多，Godspeed 酿酒厂写过一个关于分手的故事，他们酿了一款绿茶啤酒，使用的绿茶来自日本一个茶农场，而那个地方正是酿酒厂创始人之一的家乡。

I know there's, I think it was Godspeed that we wrote a a breakup or a story on years ago, up in Toronto, and they, make a green tea beer, and source their green tea from a tea farm in Japan where, there was in the hometown of, one of the founders of the brewery.

所以，你看，这里又有一个美好的小联系。

And and so, you know, again, a a nice little connection there.

总的来说，米拉格啤酒的增长非常显著，与墨西哥拉格啤酒的发展趋势相似，都是类似的情况。

Rice lager in general, seeing so much growth kinda paralleling what we see in Mexican lager, same kind of thing.

我认为人们之间存在着一种有趣的联系。

I think that there's this interesting connection that people have.

他们想要的这些啤酒既清爽、轻盈、易饮，又能唤起某种地域感和情感，让人觉得有连接感、有转化力，同时又兼具这些特质。

They want those those beers are both crisp, light, easy to drink, but also kind of evoke some other sense of place and feel kind of, you know, connective and transformative and, at the same time.

我认为这两者结合在一起，才显得特别有意思。

And I think some of those two things together makes it kinda interesting.

是的。

Yeah.

我完全同意。

I totally agree.

然后最后一个是我这周讨论过的话题，我得再次先说明一下，抱歉我又要提这个，但我知道这并不新鲜。

And then the last one is something I talked about this week that's I had to preface it with again, I'm sorry to keep doing this, but I know this is not new.

我只是觉得它会以新的形式出现，也许会被稍微不同地对待，那就是泡菜风味。

I just think it's gonna take on new forms and maybe get treated a little differently, and that's pickle.

你知道，泡菜啤酒，我们看到精酿啤酒厂做这个大约有十年了，尤其是最近五年。

Know, pickle beer, we've been seeing craft breweries do that for about ten years, especially in the last five.

但我认为那个风味突然变得极其主流，越来越多的人开始接受它了。

And then but I think that flavor has all of a sudden become extremely mainstream where there's just increasingly more and more people open to it.

你知道，无论是买葵花籽、薯片，有时这些限量版快餐店的菜单会持续整整一个月，比如整个以腌黄瓜为主题的菜单。

You know, whether you're buying sunflower seeds, potato chips, or sometimes these, you know, limited edition fast food restaurant menus are just will run like a a for an entire month, a whole pickle themed menu.

而且腌黄瓜的受欢迎程度似乎一直在增长。

And it's just like pickle keeps growing in popularity.

是的，我知道很多啤酒厂会发布为期一个月的限量版，规模通常很小。

And yes, I know a lot of breweries released for one month limited edition one for like on a really small level.

而现在我们有唐娜的腌黄瓜啤酒，这是一家完全围绕腌黄瓜啤酒理念建立的公司。

And now we have Donna's Pickle Beer, who's a a whole company built around the idea of pickle beer.

我只是觉得它还会继续衍生出更多形式，尤其是酿酒厂和新品牌正在推出即饮鸡尾酒。

I just think it's gonna keep taking on more forms, especially with, you know, breweries and new brands making, like, ready to drink cocktails.

这不是我们今天要讨论的内容，但我认为腌黄瓜会进入像这样的领域，也许你会偶尔看到一些，但它还没有真正成为一种潮流。

Not what I know we're gonna talk about today, but I think we're gonna see pickle enter spaces like that where it's maybe you'll find a few here and there, but it hasn't really taken over as a trend.

我觉得我们会看到腌黄瓜出现在更多地方。

I think we're just gonna see pickle in more places.

腌黄瓜现在真的很火。

Pickle is a really big deal right now.

没错。

Exactly.

哦，这是我今天 episode 的冷笑话。

Oh, there's my dad joke for the episode.

好的。

Okay.

好吧，我们换一个话题。

Well, let's let's change gears.

接下来我们来谈谈IPA的趋势。

We'll talk about trends in IPA next.

但在那之前，西门子旗下的Brightly Software公司与各组织在其资产生命周期的每个阶段都建立了合作关系。

But before we do that, Brightly Software, a Siemens company, partners with organizations at every stage of their asset life cycle journey.

Brightly是一款完整的资产管理和运营软件，它通过数据驱动的决策来提升组织的可持续性、合规性和效率。

Brightly is a complete asset management and operations software that enhances organizational sustainability, compliance and efficiency through data driven decision making.

通过专为支持长期目标而设计的解决方案，来简化维护工作、简化资本规划并优化资源。

Streamline maintenance, simplify capital planning and optimize resources with solutions uniquely designed to support long term goals.

了解更多信息，请访问brightlysoftware.com。

Learn more at brightlysoftware.com.

IPA可是个大话题，道格。

IPA is a big subject, Doug.

你知道，它大概占了整个精酿啤酒市场的40%，现在可能甚至更多一点。

You know, it's what, roughly 40%, maybe even a little more now of the entire craft beer world.

这个话题我们可以好好聊聊。

It's something that we can talk about.

对很多人来说，如果你提到精酿啤酒，他们几乎会自然而然地将其与IPA联系起来。

Like, for a lot of people out there, if you mention craft beer, they almost axiomatically connect that with IPA.

你说精酿，几乎就成了IPA的代名词，因为这两者实在太紧密了。

You say craft, it's almost shorthand for IPA because it's just so connected.

尤其是那些不喜欢IPA的人，他们肯定会这么想。

Especially if they don't like them, then they definitely do that.

喜欢精酿啤酒的人可能不会这么想，但不喜欢精酿的人却会说：‘全是IPA。’

People that love craft beer might not make that same, but people that don't like craft beer just say, yes, it's all IPA.

全都太苦了。

It's all so hoppy.

全都太苦了。

It's all too hoppy.

但在IPA的世界里，我们其实有非常多不同类型，甚至把它们统称为一种东西几乎都说不通，因为我们已经看到一些趋势，比如低酒精度的苦味啤酒——像淡色艾尔和XBA——正在显著增长。

So but in this world of IPA, we have a whole lot of different like like, even talking about it as one thing almost doesn't make sense because there is you know, we we've seen some, you know, some potential trends in hoppy beer at lower ABV strengths, you know, pale ale XBA kind of growing significantly.

幸运的是，我们基本已经不再使用‘session IPA’这个说法了，但现在有不少出色的啤酒正好满足了低酒精度的需求。

Thankfully, we've we've kinda gotten rid of the term session session IPA for the most part, but there are great beers that are now kinda scratching that itch at lower ABV.

我们看到不同酒精度（ABV）的啤酒出现在各种场合。

We're seeing different kinds of context for ABV.

仍然有那种大型浑浊双倍IPA，那种酒花风味极其浓郁的类型。

There is still big hazy double IPA, like like, intensely hop saturated.

我们也看到了巨大的增长。

We're also seeing a huge growth.

嗯，我不该说'增长'，因为西海岸IPA其实从未真正消失过。

Well, I shouldn't say growth because, like, West Coast IPA never really went away.

它一直存在，甚至包括浑浊IPA这种风格，而现在它在这个IPA多元宇宙中，作为浑浊IPA世界的平行宇宙存在，消费者在这两者之间来回选择，但许多有趣的创意工作，尤其是在西海岸的西海岸IPA酿酒师中，他们正努力让这些啤酒更加平衡、更易入口，并且非常、非常吸引人。

It's always been here, and it even with the hazy thing, and now it kind of exists at this in this multiverse of IPA as a parallel universe to the hazy IPA world with consumers going back and forth between those two, but a lot of interesting creative work as amongst, you know, West Coast focused West Coast IPA brewers in making those beers more little more balanced, much more drinkable, and, you know, really, really compelling.

那么，从广义上讲，你能大致为我勾勒一下你认为2026年IPA的主要趋势是什么吗？

So in a in a broad sense, kinda outline for me what you think the major trends in 2026 are around IPA?

这些显然是我们2025年已经看到在增长的趋势，并不会是全新的。

They're they're obviously things that we've seen growing in 2025 and are not gonna be brand new.

我先帮你把那个免责声明说了，这样你就不用再提了。

I'm gonna get your caveat in there for you so you don't have to say it.

你明白吗？

You know?

但是你怎么看，你觉得IPA的这些主要趋势领域是什么？

But what do you think, you know, what do you think these kind of major kind of trend areas are for IPA?

我认为一个有趣的起点，正因为上一个话题是关于风味和讨论风味添加物，那就是萜烯。

I think an interesting place to start just because of the last topic being flavor and talking about flavorings is terpenes.

所以萜烯的使用在增加，再说一次，这并不新鲜，但就它们目前的使用程度而言，在过去几年里算是相当新的。

So an increased use of terpenes, again, not new, but pretty new in terms of a couple years in terms of the the level of use that they're getting.

从高端市场来看——我指的是高酒精度，以及萜烯使用量的增加，这使得一些10%酒精度的IPA对消费者来说变得可负担。具体做法是，用部分萜烯替代干投酒花，这样风味依然能呈现出来——不是说完全一样，但在强度上，你能获得足够的强度，同时节省一大笔干投酒花的开支，基本上能让它达到一个IPA日常的正常价格，但酒精度却更高。

Both from the high end, when I say high end, mean ABV, and the increased use of terpenes in a way to make some of those 10% IPAs affordable to consumers where you sub, you know, swap some of your dry hop for terpenes so that the flavor still delivers, not that it's the same, but in intensity, you can pick up the intensity and save a good bit of money on how much you're spending on dry hop, basically to get it to a price that's like a normal everyday price for an IPA, but at this higher ABV.

所以，

So

是的。

Yes.

如果你曾经酿造过2000桶批次的10%酒精度的IPA，并且想要那种饱和度和风味，那么实际上没有任何数量的真实酒花干投物料能添加到那款啤酒中以达到那种水平，这基本上是不可能的。

If you were ever brewing 2,000 barrel batches of a 10% IPA, and you want that kind of saturation and flavor, there is no amount of actual dry hop of hop material that you could add to that beer to get it to that level of like, it is functionally impossible.

除了萜烯提取物和一些现代啤酒花产品之外，根本没有其他方法能做到这一点。

There is just not a method to do that outside of terpenes extract and some of these modern hop products.

我的意思是，要达到那种效果所需的啤酒花物料量，从生产角度来看，简直是无法实现的。

I mean, the the just the sheer amount of of hop matter that it would take to do that would would just, you know, be impossible from a production standpoint.

而且你的损耗会高得离谱，这会让啤酒的成本变得疯狂。

And and your losses would be off the charts, which makes the cost of the beer insane.

所以，从这个角度来看，这与其说是一个预测，不如说是对这种风味跨界进入IPA世界的一种认可。

So so there's that angle of it, which isn't these are more just like this isn't so much a prediction, but just like kind of an acknowledgment of this flavor crossover into the IPA world.

对我来说，IPA的风味中一个有趣的地方是低酒精度端。

One thing that's interesting with flavor and IPA to me is the low end.

所以你提到了社交型IPA，你知道，很多这类啤酒的短板在于，较低的麦芽配方导致酒花风味消退很快，它们在常温货架上无法持久保持。一家优秀酒厂出品的社交型IPA在酒厂里可能尝起来不错，因为它是桶装且一直冷藏保存的。

So so you mentioned session IPA, and, you know, where a lot of those felt short is that that, you know, lower malt bill, the hops fade fast, they do not hold up on a warm shelf, and a session IPA by a good brewery might taste good at the brewery because of it being in a keg and being cold stored the whole time.

但如果你拿到一瓶在常温货架上放了四个月的，天哪，那可真让人失望。

But you get one that's four months old sitting on a a warm shelf for that long, and boy, can that disappoint you.

很多这类啤酒已经消失了，这可能是众多原因中的一个。

And a lot of a lot have gone away with that being one of maybe potentially many reasons.

但使用风味物质，使用萜烯，这是一种有趣的方式，能在低酒精度下获得充足的风味，并且具有货架稳定性，保证口感良好。

But using flavors, using terpenes, that's an interesting way to get a low ABV to get a good amount of its flavor in a shelf stable way, in a way that's gonna taste good.

我尝试过的一款是'老爸力量'，我记得它的酒精度大约是2.9左右的IPA。

One that I've tried is the dad strength of the, you know, I think it's like 2.9 something like that IPA.

他们有西海岸风格的一款，还有一款多汁风格的。

And they have like a West Coast one and then a juicy one.

那款多汁风格的，你能尝出来用了某种方式来增强水果风味，那种风味并非来自啤酒花。

And the juicy one you could tell uses some kind of way of, you know, boosting the fruit that is not hop derived.

而且我觉得它相当宜人且不错，并且没有一些旧款低酒精度会话IPA所缺失的部分。

And I thought it was pretty pleasant and good, and and didn't have some of the missing pieces that some of the old low ABV session IPAs had.

还记得疫情即将发生时本地IPA掀起的那股热潮吗，好像每家都推出了一款本地IPA。

And remember the cup of coffee that locale IPAs had right when the pandemic was about to happen, like everybody launched a locale IPA.

而那些产品的生命周期都非常非常短暂。

And those did those were very very short lived.

幸好如此。

Thankfully.

所以当人们听到我提起这些新的低酒精度IPA品牌时，总是告诉我：这不就是session IPA的重新营销吗？

So when people hear me bring up these newer low ABV IPA brands, they always tell me, like, isn't this just session IPA remarketing itself?

我说，也许是吧。

And I'm like, maybe.

但也许这是因为时机的问题。

But maybe that's because these maybe maybe it's just timing.

有时候，一个好点子只是出现得太早了。

Sometimes a good idea is just too early.

也许session IPA只是酿酒师们在说：嘿，

Maybe session IPA was too much of brewers saying, hey.

我们需要一种更低酒精度的酒，可以在下班后在酿酒厂后面喝，所以我们做了它。

We need something lower that we can drink behind the in the back of the brewery after work, so we're gonna make it.

也许他们确实有道理，但当时市场还没准备好让它发展到那么大的规模。

And and maybe they were onto something, but just too early for it to try to get as big as it did.

也许世界只需要一款全天候IPA和少数几款其他产品，而不是成千上万种涌入市场。

And maybe the world only needed an all day IPA and maybe a few others and not a thousand of these to to hit the market.

但后来出现了低酒精度IPA的趋势，你知道，像Firestone Walker、我记得Oscar Blues这些大品牌，就在2020年，很多排名前十的精酿啤酒厂都在那一年推出了低酒精度IPA。

But then you had the locale IPA trend that really, you know, everybody, Firestone Walker, I remember Oscar Blues, in one year a lot of the big names around the top 10 of craft breweries right at the 2020 released a locale IPA.

然后我们永远无法知道，如果没有发生疫情，情况会怎样——疫情以不同的方式、在不同的时间点，改变了人们对酒精的看法。

And then we never know what would have happened had the pandemic not happened, which changed every you know, in in in different ways at different times of it, how people were looking at alcohol.

但突然间，在2020年的春夏之际，低酒精度IPA已经不再是任何人考虑的事情了。

But all of a sudden, a locale IPA was not something anybody was thinking about in the spring and summer of of twenty twenty.

而现在它似乎又以一种不同的方式、甚至更低的酒精度重新出现，并借助适度饮酒运动作为理由，宣称：如果无酒精IPA表现良好，而且我们也听说喝这些酒的人并没有完全放弃酒精，只是轮换着喝，那么，如果我们能找到一种方法在风味上做到令人满意，现在是不是推出3%酒精度IPA的恰当时机呢？

And then here it is again kind of, you know, presenting itself in a different way, an even lower way, but using the moderation movement as a reason for it to say, hey, if nonalcoholic IPAs are doing great, and we're also hearing that people drinking those aren't giving up alcohol entirely, rotating them in, then maybe is this actually the right time for a 3% IPA if we can find a way to deliver on flavor in a way that's satisfying.

回到最初的观点，风味能否作为一种不完全替代品，而是作为啤酒花的补充，帮助这些低酒精度啤酒以一致的方式保持品质和口感，而不至于因为缺乏麦芽骨架——这在低酒精度啤酒中自然会发生——而风味迅速衰减。

And back to the original point, can flavor in as a not complete substitute, but as a supplement to hops help these, you know, maintain the quality and taste in a consistent way that isn't gonna just die thanks to a lack of a malt backbone that is naturally gonna happen with a lower AVV beer.

感觉西海岸皮尔森和新西兰皮尔森也在某种程度上满足了同样的需求，你知道，在4.5%到5.5%这个酒精度范围内，带有人们想要的那种爽脆感，那种清晰度、对比度，以及轻盈的酒体，但以非常策略性的方式使用啤酒花，用量更少，在这种背景下也能达到类似的效果。

It feels like West Coast pills and New Zealand pills also kind of scratch that same itch, you know, in this four and a half to five and a half percent range, with with some of that kind of crispness that people want, some of that kind of, you know, definition and and and contrast and a light light light body, you know, but, using hops in a very strategic way, lesser amounts of them, you know, in that kind of context give the same kind of effect.

所以现在突然间，我可以喝上几罐这种啤酒，而不是喝一罐更高度数的IPA。

And so now all of a sudden, I can drink a few of those rather than, you know, drinking one bigger IPA.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know?

但这感觉也像是，哦，我在喝比尔森啤酒。

But it also feels like, oh, I'm drinking a Pilsner.

你懂吗？

You know?

就像，我喝得比较清淡。

Like, I'm keeping it light.

你知道，如果这看起来有联系的话。

You know, if it seems to connect there.

你看到那里有什么潜在的增长点吗？

Any any, you know, potential and growth there that you see?

我认为最困难的部分将是如何解释清楚。

I think the hardest part will just be explaining it.

而且，你知道，目前我只是觉得，这些产品主要会吸引现有的精酿啤酒消费者。

And, you know, right now, I just see those as, you know, the the current craft beer consumer is who those are gonna be attractive to.

对于那些从2013年到现在喝了很多双倍IPA的消费者来说，如果你习惯了喝9%或8%酒精度的酒，那么这个4.5%的选择对他们来说就像是中强度酒，因为它几乎是把酒精度减半了。

The the consumer who drank a ton of double IPAs from 2013 till recently, that to me, you know, if you're used to drinking nine percenters, eight percenters, then this four and a half option, that is like mid strength to that person because it's coming close to cutting it in half.

而我提到的那些2.5%的啤酒，可能更适合那些平时喝5%美国拉格的人。

Whereas the ones I was talking about, these two and a half percenters, maybe that's for people who usually drink like a an American lager of 5%.

所以那正好是一半。

So so then that's half.

所以这一切都取决于上下文。

So It's all about the context.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得新西兰皮尔森啤酒可能根本无法引起那些不关注精酿啤酒、至少没有达到中等程度关注的人的兴趣。

I I think that it might I like I think New Zealand, Pilsner might just go over the head in terms of like why that should be interesting to the people that aren't thinking about craft beer, paying attention to it on at least a intermediate level.

所以我干脆称之为热情。

So I I Just call it passion

如果你想真正卖出去，不如叫它水果胶囊，而不是新西兰胶囊。

fruit pills instead of New Zealand Pills if you actually wanna sell it.

这就像我前偶像‘多汁英雄’的例子，那种风格会让我觉得尴尬，但可能效果会更好。

That's like my ex hero, Juicy Hero example are of like, that would make me cringe, but it probably would work better.

那么，你到底想要哪一个呢？

And it's like, which which do you want?

这两种都不是完美的。

And it's it's neither is perfect.

但确实如此。

So but yeah.

我非常喜欢喝这些风格的啤酒。

I I I love drinking those styles.

我觉得它们很棒。

I think they're wonderful.

对我来说，‘Timbo啤酒’是我非常推崇的一款啤酒，我试过的其他一些也达到了类似的水准。

Like, Timbo pills to me is a is a beer I hold in in very high regard, and others that I've tried kinda deliver on a a similar level.

所以我希望能看到它们。

So I hope to see them.

我只是不知道他们如何能打动那些对啤酒购买毫不在意的人。

I just don't know how they break through to the people that put very little thought into their beer purchase.

他们只想要快速搞定，而且必须立刻说得通。

They just want it to be quick, has to make sense immediately.

我不明白他们是怎么做到的，考虑到他们可能需要定的那个价格。

I don't know how they how they do it on those given the price that they'll probably need to be.

给我解释一下现在IPA的消费者逻辑吧，因为看起来，你知道，根本就没有一个统一的说法。

Explain to me the kind of, like, consumer logic behind IPA now because it seems like, you know, again, there's just not one story.

有些品牌极其成功，比如19.2盎司、酒精度高达9%到10%的所谓IPA、双倍IPA或帝国IPA，销量增长迅猛；但同时，也有像‘老爸强度’这种2.9%到3.2%的低度IPA在悄然增长。

There are some extraordinarily successful brands, you know, of 19.2, you know, stovepipes with 910% ABV, quote unquote, IPAs or double IPAs or imperial IPAs that are just growing like gangbusters, but then there's also this kind of dad strength or, like, two two point nine to 3.2% kinda growth.

还有你常见的6.5%到7.5%的普通IPA，无论是浑浊型还是西海岸风格，美国市场依然在维持着它的份额。

Like, there is your normal six and a half to seven and a half percent IPA, both hazy and West Coast that an American that is still kind of holding its own.

你还有那种极度浓郁、价格昂贵的双倍IPA，尤其是那些专注于极致风味而非市场普及的顶尖精酿啤酒厂推出的浑浊双倍IPA。

You've got the kind of double IPA of intensely saturated, but also very expensive, you know, of a hazy double IPAs from, you know, that kind of leading edge of craft brewer focused on saturation, not, kind of market penetration.

所以，各种类型都有，但你找不到一个单一的线索，能让你说：‘哦，这就是未来的发展方向。’

And, you know, and so it there's just lots of like, but there's not one piece that you can hang on and say, oh, this is where things are going.

因为每一种啤酒都有不同的受众群体。

Because these are different kinds of audiences for each one of those kinds of beer.

是的。

Yeah.

而且我认为这些受众群体，真的取决于他们过去与精酿啤酒的关系如何，他们曾经是哪种程度的爱好者？

And I think those those audiences I think it really depends on what their past relationship with craft beer is, how they what what level of a fan were they?

还有，他们是否曾是那种在论坛上、Facebook群里争论不休的狂热爱好者？

And, you know, were they were they an enthusiast on message boards arguing in Facebook groups, this and that?

如果你给我某个人的这种背景资料，我大概能相当准确地定位出他们在你提到的所有选项中的偏好程度，这就像给他们做个测试，看测试结果就能推断出他们感兴趣的是哪种IPA。

If you give me that kind of bio for someone, I can probably pin pretty accurately on where they land on all those options, you said, versus someone you it's like if you gave them a quiz and see how they did on the quiz, you could probably pin the type of IPA they're interested in.

我想指出这一点，虽然不完全是在回答你的问题，但我觉得这很有趣，因为这里有一条分界线，我不确定，你知道，你可以争论这条线应该划在哪里。

I like to point to this isn't exactly answering your question, but I think this is interesting in that there's like a line in the sand that I don't know, you know, you could argue when it should be.

对我来说，大概是在2016、2017年左右，那时推出一个新品牌，或者说发布一个新品牌，已经不像以前那样能引起轰动了。

For me, it's somewhere around 2016, 2017, where making a new brand just didn't launching a new brand just didn't hit the way it used to.

在Revolution酒厂，当Revolution在‘分界线’之前，大概2017年左右，推出一款新的全年常供啤酒时，那可是件大事。

At Revolution, when Revolution would come out with a new year, a new year round beer, pre roughly Line in the Sands seven 2017, it was a big deal.

伊利诺伊州任何喜欢精酿啤酒的人都会想：好吧，我至少要试试这款酒。

And anyone in Illinois that was into craft beer would be like, well, I'm I'm definitely trying that at least once.

我肯定会买一包六瓶装。

I'm definitely buying a six pack.

所以，你推出的任何产品都有很大的成功机会，因为任何关注的人都会尝试，部分原因是当时酿酒厂的数量还很有限。

And so whatever you put out would have a good chance of success because you'd instantly get anybody who's paying attention to try it, in part because there were just only so many breweries at that point.

那时已经出现了很多新酿酒厂，但还没有达到2017年之后那种规模的浪潮。

There had been a lot of new ones by then, but there wasn't this whatever number wave you wanna call the post 2017 level.

从那以后，市场才真正变得尤其拥挤。

After that is when it really got especially crowded.

无论如何，有很多人选择革命啤酒厂，他们的主打IPA是《反英雄》。

Anyway, there's a lot of people who choose Revolution, their flagship IPA is antihero.

如果你看看这款酒的数据表现，对比他们其他产品，就会发现这和许多其他酿酒厂的情况一样：你最初推出的那款IPA，现在依然占了你一半的销量，并且表现非常稳定。

If you look at what that's doing in data compared to their other one, it's just like so many other breweries where, man, that that beer that you made, that IPA that you made from the beginning, that thing is is a half your sales and holding pretty strong.

真正对许多已经存在十年、十五年的老牌品牌造成冲击的，是那些更新的轮换款产品。

It's just a newer rotational stuff that's where a lot of the damage is happening for a lot of more established brands that have been around to ten call it ten, fifteen years.

所以有太多人，比如芝加哥及其周边地区的人，根本不会把反英雄当成精酿啤酒或这个社区的一部分。

And so there's just so many people, let's say in Chicago and surrounding areas that don't even think about anti hero is as a craft beer and part of this, you know, community, this anything.

他们只是觉得，哦，这就是芝加哥IPA。

They just think of it as like, oh, that's the Chicago IPA.

我喜欢这个。

I like that.

当我去看小熊队比赛时，你知道，我想物有所值，我会买一瓶反英雄。

When I go to a Cubs game, you know, I wanna get a little more bang for my buck, I'm getting an antihero.

这是一款芝加哥啤酒。

It's a Chicago beer.

我在看小熊队比赛，不管我是不是经常去。

I'm at I'm at a Cubs game whether I go all the time or not.

这些啤酒在选择还没泛滥之前就抢占了先机。

And there's just these beers that got this head start before there were countless choices.

这些啤酒就这样永久地——至少在几十年内——停留在这个位置了，而且你知道，它们仍然需要持续投入，因为你确实需要。

And those are just, like, permanently, at least for decades, and, you know, at this place where they it's not that they don't need to keep investing in them because you do.

你总是需要持续为这些品牌努力，寻找新的方式和场景来推广它们。

You always need to keep working for these brands and find new ways, new situations to get it in.

但有些品牌已经大到不能失败了，比如Surly的Furious。

But there's like a too big to fail size for some of these, you know, like think like surly furious.

你可以想到一大堆加州的例子。

Think, you know, you could come up with a ton of California examples.

但这些已经存在了十到十五年的品牌，你如今推出任何新酒花或新配方都再也无法超越它们了。

But these ones that have been there ten, fifteen years, they nothing you release now with any new hop, any new anything can ever be it's like they cannot catch up to that.

我觉得西雅图酿酒厂推出那款浑浊啤酒刚好赶上了时机。

And, like, I feel like Sierra Nevada with Hazy little thing, like, just got that in time.

他们是大型酿酒厂中最早采用浑浊风格的之一，但这就正好处于我所说的那条分水岭上。

They were first and early to adopting hazy as a large brewer, but that's like right around this line in the sand I'm talking about.

而之后推出的任何产品，都很难迅速进入消费者的心智，因为现在选择实在太多了。

Or, like, anything after that just, like, can't get that instant jump into people's how people think about it because there's just too many now.

这挺有意思的，我觉得这反映了一个更广泛的趋势，那就是我们正在看到某种现象——我不会说是一种撤退，但一些精酿啤酒的经典品牌确实正在重新获得力量，主要是因为饮酒者确实有些审美疲劳了。

That is kinda interesting, and I think it speaks to another kind of broader trend that we're seeing, which is some sort of kind of, I wouldn't say at a retreat to, you know, those kinds of brands, but, though some of these more classic brands from craft breweries do seem to be gaining some strength primarily because, yes, I think there is some fatigue amongst drinkers.

就像再说，总有人会去啤酒厂的自酿酒吧，或者那种高端精酿啤酒吧，他们总在寻找新东西。

Like, again, there is that person that's gonna go to the brewery taproom, go to that, like, high end craft beer bar where they're always looking for something new.

但从整体来看，大规模分销市场对这些不断轮换的SKU和那些只会短暂出现几个月就消失的全新啤酒越来越不感兴趣，因为它们根本无法广泛铺货，难以在这一市场中真正产生影响。

And and yet from a from a general standpoint, some of, the world the larger distribution world is less and less and less interested in these constantly rotating SKUs and these brand new beers that are gonna pop up and be there for a few months and then disappear because, they just can't get out there widely enough to make a real dent in that in that kind of business.

但像西格拉·内华达淡色艾尔这样的酒款，却依然持续热销，年复一年、月复一月地不断取得成功。

And yet, then you have things like Sierra Nevada pale ale, like, still just on a a streak, you know, just just still continuing to, you know, to get it done over and over again year after year, month after month.

你知道吧？

You know?

但另一方面，像新比利时这样的品牌，是的。

But then on the flip side, you also have someone like New Belgium who yes.

Voodoo Ranger啤酒确实很火，但目前表现最好的这款Voodoo Ranger才推出两三年，他们已经在销售榜上推出了好几个不同版本，而Fat Tire却在持续下滑。

It's a Voodoo Ranger beer, but the Voodoo Ranger that's doing really well now is only two or three years old, and they've got but they've got a couple of different iterations up there at the top of the sales chart while fat tire keeps kinda, you know, bumping down and down and down.

所以，这种情况并没有单一的解释。

And so, like, there's also just not one explanation for that.

再说一遍，这其实是情境性的，很难完全理解。

Again, it it's kinda contextual and and challenging to understand.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得Voodoo Ranger这个系列挺有意思，值得跟踪，不是因为我喜欢大量喝这种高酒精度的啤酒，而是因为你可以看出他们在不断摸索和学习。

I think the the Voodoo Ranger has just been fun for me to follow, not because I, you know, enjoy putting down a ton of juice force, but just to, you can kind of like figure out what they're learning themselves.

你知道，Juice Force一推出就大获成功。

And, you know, Juice Force was a runaway hit.

然后我不确定顺序是不是这样，但我记得Tropic Force紧随其后，突然之间它也开始热销了，虽然可能还赶不上Juice Force，但已经很惊人了。

And then I I don't know if this is the exact order, but I think Tropic Force came next, and it was like, all of a sudden that thing was going, you know, maybe not toe to toe with Juice Force, but it was like, wow.

第二个系列现在也卖得非常火。

A week, a second one is now killing it as well.

所以他们当然又推出了第三个，但第三个一出来，他们就踩了刹车——三个可能太多了。

So they, of course, made a third one, and then it was like the third one was like, hit the brakes, like three might be too many.

也许购买这些啤酒的人并不在意频繁更换口味，也不需要不断追求新鲜感。

And it's like, maybe the person that is buying these does not care about rotation and it constantly need beating to needing to be new.

我觉得这些产品可能在某些渠道有售，而在其他渠道没有，但我知道他们至少已经放缓了第三个系列的推广。

And that I think they maybe it's available in certain channels and not others, but I know they at least dialed back that third one.

而现在，他们等了。

And now the there's they waited.

他们停了一年。

They paused a year.

去年，他们第一次没有推出新品，自从这个产品成为爆款以来从未有过。

Like, last year, they didn't release a new one for the first time since it's become this runaway hit.

但今年他们又推出了，不过这是一款11%酒精度的啤酒。

But then this year, they are, but it's a 11 percenter.

所以这款啤酒的关键是，忘掉那款9.5%的吧。

So the whole thing with this one is like forget that 9.5.

这款啤酒，你知道的，我用的是把酒精度从9.5调到11的比喻。

This one, you know, I use the, you know, taking it to an dialing it up to an 11 analogy.

所以这款新品通过提高酒精度，进一步推动了啤酒的极端化趋势——我们一直在听说无酒精啤酒，同时也在见证风味和酒精度不断被推向更高极限，往往两者兼而有之。

So the new one is using more ABV to you know, it's like furthering the extremes of beer that we're seeing where we hear all about NA, and then we hear about the extremes continuing to be pushed between flavor ABV and oftentimes both.

但有趣的是，想想这些消费者：是那些在便利店买酒、用Voodoo Ranger替代过去常喝的其他高酒精饮品的人，还是仅仅觉得它物超所值、喜欢这种天然风味的人？

So but it's interesting to think like, does that consumer, this kind of whether it's the convenience store shopper who's, you know, substituting voodoo voodoo ranger for something else strong that they used to drink before that, or just sees it as a as a good deal, doesn't mind likes those kinda natural flavors.

当你想到这样一个人时，他们并不太在意每个月都有新的IPA推出。

When you think about that person, they don't they don't care as much about there being a new IPA of the month.

因此，你可能会发现那里并不需要频繁更换产品。

And so maybe the the and you see like not a lot of rotation needed there.

但我认为他们在便利店和超市之间看到了不同的需求差异。

But I think they see different answers between convenience stores and a grocery store.

或者在超市里，你会看到他们推出的新产品正在降低酒精度，回归更合理、更常见的水平，这正是混合装啤酒所体现的。

Or at the grocery store, you see them developing new products that are bringing that ABV down and to more reasonable, more typical levels, and that's what you see in a variety pack.

你看到他们新推出的一款产品，叫什么Slow Ride之类的，酒精度只有6.5%。

That's what you see a new one that they're coming out with, think called slow ride or something like that, where they're coming out with a six and a half percenter.

所以我才开玩笑说，这几乎就像一款中等酒精度的Voodoo Ranger。

So that's why I was like joking that's almost like a mid strength Voodoo Ranger.

因为他们确实做了充分的消费者调研，清楚在超市买啤酒的人和在便利店买啤酒的人分别是哪些群体。

It's because they they absolutely have done the consumer research and know who it is that's shopping and buying the beer at that grocery store versus who it is walking into that convenience store to buy the beer.

而且，你知道，这其中确实有一些非常有趣的影响。

And, you know, and there is some that's a that's a really interesting effect.

不过我认为这里的一个主要线索是，人们越来越多地购买那些他们熟悉并且已有过积极体验的产品，尤其是随着越来越多的家庭面临各方面成本上涨，他们对风险的承受意愿降低了。

I think one of, like, the big thread here though is that people are more and more buying things that they have been familiar with and that they've had a positive experience with already, especially as more and more households are facing rising costs across the board for everything there, like the appetite for risk.

当然，市场上仍然存在那些追求新鲜事物的消费者。

You know, and again, are still those consumers out there that want something new and want something fresh.

只是这类消费者的数量减少了，并且他们更集中于广泛市场中某些特定类型的品牌。

There's just fewer of them, and they are more focused in in amongst certain kinds of brands out there in the broader market.

市场确实存在一种倾向，即聚焦于那些消费者知道可以信赖、并且过去有过良好体验的品牌。

There is absolutely a kind of focus on things on those brands that consumers know that they can trust and that they've had a good experience with in the past.

然后，你知道，像新比利时这样的品牌已经找到了一种方法，将你对已尝试产品的信任延伸到新尝试的产品上，而其他品牌则只是简单地说，嘿。

And then, you know, someone like New Belgium has found a way to, like, extend that trust for the thing that you did try into this new thing that you try, whereas other brands have just said, hey.

这是我们的绿色罐子，上面印着塞拉内华达淡色艾尔。

Here's our green can with pale ale on it from Sierra Nevada.

你想喝这个吗？

You You wanna drink this?

然后，你知道，他们又做了一个深绿色的罐子，里面装着这些可爱的小罐装啤酒，然后你就觉得，哦，是的。

And then, you know, and then they make a darker green can with pills in these cute little cans, and it's like, oh, yeah.

我也想喝那个。

I wanna drink that too.

它看起来有点像另一款，但颜色更浅。

And it looks kinda like the other one, but it's even lighter.

听起来很棒。

That sounds great.

而且，你知道，他们找到了一些品牌运作方式，帮助这些啤酒与消费者建立联系。

And, you know, they've been able to find ways to, like, you know, just kind of some brand mechanics there that that help connect these beers out with people.

是的。

Yeah.

你知道，如今这种轮换尝试的想法不那么吸引人了。

You know, the the idea of rotation that is less appealing these days, you know.

曾经有一段时间，你会觉得自己可以尝遍所有啤酒，哪怕只是在一家啤酒厂或你当地几家啤酒厂里，你会觉得自己能跟上节奏。

There there used to be a time where you felt like you could try them all, even if that's just within one brewery or your your couple local breweries where you felt like you could keep up.

而且，你身边还有一群朋友、你的社交圈，他们对你在喝什么很感兴趣，分享饮品的社交互动曾一度达到前所未有的热度。

And there was also an audience of your friends, your network, who were interested in what you were drinking and the social side of sharing what you were drinking was at an all time high for a while.

因为其他人也感兴趣，想要了解。

Because others were interested and looking to learn.

而且，说到这种疲劳感，再加上你提到的经济因素，风险突然上升了——对于一款只生产过一次的啤酒来说，风险自然比那些经过多年打磨、不断优化的啤酒要高得多。

And, you know, going back to the the whole fatigue level, the the risk became and combining with the economic factors that you mentioned, like the risk factor all of a sudden went up, and it naturally does with a beer that's only been made once before versus being dialed in and made over time over years and all that.

所以所有这些因素叠加起来，就很容易理解为什么如今轮换款、长期尾部品牌——不是长期尾部酒厂，而是长期尾部品牌和产品组合——表现最差。

So all that adding up, it just kind of it makes sense that the rotation nation, the long tail of brands, not the long tail of breweries, but the long tail of brands and portfolios is what's performing the poorest right now.

因为很多时候，这些新品牌就像我提到的那条分界线一样，由于市场上信息过载，根本无法突围。

Because a lot of times those are new brands that, like I mentioned with the line of the sand line in the sand, those just like can't break through because of all the noise out there in a way.

但确实如此。

But yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

我记得在2010年代末期，我曾和一家酒厂交谈过。

I remember in that late twenty teens, I was talking to one brewery.

当时他们说，你知道，我们不得不调整策略，过去我们以为打造一个品牌需要五到十年，甚至更久，但现在情况变了。

It's like, you know, we've we've had to adjust where we used to be able to build a brand and get know that it's gonna be five or ten years, maybe even longer, you know, from it.

现在我们推出一个新品牌，只有两年寿命，然后就死了。

Like, now we launch a new brand and it's got two years, and then it's dead.

然后我们得把它们从产品线中移除，再启动一个新的。

And then we've gotta you know, then it comes out of the lineup and we're starting something new.

当你以这种方式从商业角度思考时，就会降低你在品牌建设和营销上的前期投入。

And then, of course, you start thinking about that way thinking about it that way as a business, and it lowers the investment that you put into upfront of building and marketing that kind of brand.

这几乎成了一个自我实现的循环。

So it almost becomes a self fulfilling cycle.

如果你知道这个品牌撑不了几年，就会在初期投入时有所保留，明知无法获得长期回报，于是削减预算，结果就形成了商业世界中一种近乎恶性循环的局面。

If you know you're not gonna get that many years out of it, you may tailor your initial investment for a launch knowing that you're not gonna get that long term payoff, and then, you know, you dial that back and, you know, and so it becomes this almost vicious cycle in the business world.

是的。

Yeah.

你所能做的最好的事情，就是至少保持清醒的认知，像你所说的那样，明白这种情况存在，这样就不会有失望，投资和规划也能更合理，而不是把大量资金投入到一个注定只能达到有限规模的产品上。

The the the best thing you can do is at least be self aware, like you're you're stating and know that if you know that's the case, then the the disappointment isn't there and the planning and the investment behind it is done appropriately versus pouring way too much money into launching something that just can only get to a certain size.

所以我们看到越来越多的新品从小规模起步，等成功了再逐步扩大，而不是一上来就大张旗鼓地搞大动作。

So we see more and more launches starting small, and then when they hit or if they hit, then scaling rather than trying to start big and make a big splash out of the gate.

我认为这对小型精酿啤酒厂来说是一个合理的策略，可以利用市场作为自身的测试方式。

I think that's a reasonable strategy, you know, for for smaller craft breweries to take and try to, you know, use that use the market as its own kind of test.

是的。

Yeah.

我们在Revolution啤酒厂做过的就是Cold Time，那是一款美式拉格啤酒。

We we did that at Revolution with Cold Time, which was the, you know, lager you know, American lager brand that that they released.

我记得当时和老板Josh有过一场争论，他当时已经准备好了。

And there was a point where I remember having the debate with Josh, the owner, and he was ready to go.

但我认为，考虑到当时的时间点，要赶在包装上线前完成所有准备会有点仓促。

And I was like, it was gonna be a bit of a rush to get packaging and everything done just given the timing of the year that this was happening.

我当时说，为什么不先在我们的酒吧里以生啤形式卖上一整年？想想每个周末人满为患的场景，还有周五晚上的客流，一年里会有成千上万的人来这儿，看到这个品牌，然后说：你们应该把这款酒装罐。

I was like, what if we put this on draft for a whole year at our tap room and think about how between all the Saturdays that are packed and all the Friday nights, think of the thousands and thousands of people that are gonna come through here and see that name and for about a year say, you guys should can that.

你们应该把这款酒装罐。

You guys should can that.

你们所有人都应该把这款酒装罐。

You all should can that.

然后，就这样让它持续一年。

And, like, let that happen for a year.

在此期间进行任何你可能想要的小调整，真正把它完善好，这样当你把它装罐时——像那样的啤酒通常一开始就是以12罐装的形式推出，所以各方面的投入都更大。

Make any little changes you might wanna make in that time and really get it down so that when you put it in cans and a beer like that starts often in a 12 pack, so bigger investment all around.

就是说，至少让它经过那一年，然后你可以给你的一些优质生啤销售点——那些在你上架前就有机会销售它的、你最好的合作伙伴等等——提供机会。

Like, let that at least have had that year, and then you can offer some draft draft accounts, the the chance to pour it before it's out on shelves and all that, some of your best accounts and all that.

天哪，这确实有帮助，因为这样一来，当你推出它的时候，仅靠已经知道它的人还不足以让它成功。

And boy did that help, because then when you launch it, it's still not enough people that know about it alone to make it a success.

但是，伙计，你确实会有一批早期采用者，他们光是听到宣布就会兴奋不已，因为他们已经知道这是什么了。

But boy do you have some early adopters that are gonna be excited just at the announcement because they already know what it is.

因为在过去的一年里某个时候，他们来过我们的酒吧间并品尝过它。

Because sometime in the last year, they came to the tap room and tried it.

所以我非常喜欢这一点。

So I love that.

给所有正在收听的酿酒师们一个快速提醒，Firestone Walker 八零五啤酒就是这样起步的，它最初只是酒吧间特供的一款淡色拉格，他们酿造这款酒就是为了给这个名字本身申请版权、注册商标，以保护他们自己的区号。

A quick reminder to all the brewers listening out there, that is how Firestone Walker eight zero five got started as a taproom only, you know, blonde lager that they made just to, just to make a copyright filing, a trademark filing on the name itself to protect their own area code.

而且，当时有一款只在酒馆出售的啤酒，最终你的顾客在那里喝酒吃饭时，都会说：‘你们应该把这款酒装罐。’

And there was a, you know, a taproom only beer that ultimately can you know, their customers who are there drinking and eating, like, you ought to can this.

下一刻，它竟然成了他们产量的一半以上。

And next thing you know, like, now it's, you know, what, more than half of their, production.

我的意思是，这款啤酒的销量比许多精酿啤酒厂的总产量还要大。

I mean, it it's that one beer is bigger than, you know, a huge chunk of all craft breweries.

它简直就是一台巨无霸。

Like, I mean, it's kind of, you know, it's it's a juggernaut.

所以，这种策略用来建立熟悉度并不是最差的选择。

And so, that's not the worst strategy to take to to kinda build that familiarity.

给它足够的时间，让你能根据反馈做出调整。

And give it enough runway where you can actually react and make changes from feedback.

别这么做，然后说：‘我们先只做散装两个月，然后直接全面上市，进入连锁渠道。’

Like, don't do this and say, hey.

我们打算只做散装两个月，然后立刻全面包装上市，进入连锁渠道。

We're gonna go draft only for two months and then full on package launch into chains.

因为到那时，你 anyway 已经被困住了。

Because at that point, you're you're stuck anyway.

所以，是的，你可能有机会提前试喝一下。

So, yeah, you might have got a chance to preview it.

但我指的是，给人们机会真正地说出：‘这酒不错，就是有点太甜了。’

But I'm talking like, give a chance to, like, really hear people say, you know, this is this is good, but it's a little too sweet.

如果你突然在Untappd上看到，这种情况确实发生过，这是我从这款啤酒中学到的一点。

And if all of a sudden you see, you look on untapped, and this this had happened, it's one thing I learned about that beer.

没有做任何改动，但我当时心想：哇。

No changes were made, but I was like, wow.

反复出现的评论是，人们说这款酒偏甜。

A recurring comment is people saying this is on the sweet sweeter side.

我们根本没想到这一点。

And it's like, we didn't even think about that.

但也许在那时，你可以考虑在描述中加入类似‘一丝甜味’这样的表述，和普通拉格啤酒相比，这样你就能提前了解这些情况，在发布前准备好所有材料，并教育分销商如何介绍这款酒。

But maybe at that point, you think about working it into the description, like a touch of sweetness or something like that, you know, compared to a normal lager, and you can just but but knowing those things before you launch and you prepare all your materials, you educate your distributors about how to talk about that.

有时候，这段时间线真的能帮助你完善即将要做的事情，最终制定出更好的计划。

Just sometimes that that amount of time line can really help you perfect what you're about to do and just ultimately put together a better plan.

是的。

Yeah.

它让你能够对命名、描述以及所有这些方面进行市场测试，看看。

It lets you market test the naming and the descriptions and all of those kinds of things and see, hey.

我们需要对这个做哪些调整，它是否引起了共鸣？

You know, what do we need to tweak on this, and is this connecting?

它是否达到了人们的预期？

And does it deliver on what people expect?

没有。

No.

那里有些有趣的内容。

Interesting stuff there.

当然。

For sure.

确实如此。

For sure.

好吧，你看，我们时间也差不多了。

Well, let's, you know, we're we're getting on in time here.

在结束之前，我想谈谈饮酒者的总体趋势。

I wanna talk about general drinker trends before we we wrap up.

去年，如果说有什么是确定的，那就是我们都在为这个想法感到焦虑：人们不再喝酒了，Z世代也不再喝酒了。

There's last year, you know, if if anything was true, it's that we were all hand wringing over this idea that people just aren't drinking anymore and that Gen Z isn't drinking anymore.

那么，精酿啤酒的未来会怎样呢？

And, you know, what's gonna be the future of craft beer?

天要塌下来了。

The the sky is falling.

人们不像以前那样喝酒了。

People aren't drinking like they used to.

我觉得这很有意思，特别是去年年底的时候，是的。

And I think it's been interesting, especially as we ended up the year last year, like, yeah.

要知道，很多数据其实并没有这么说。

You know, a lot of the data isn't actually saying that.

很多民意调查数据总体上显示，饮酒的人数相对保持稳定，但他们普遍自我报告称，总体饮酒量在减少，这似乎与趋势相符。显然，人们总体上啤酒喝得少了，这些数字正在下降。

A lot of the when the polling data generally is showing that a relatively similar amount of people are drinking if know, but the they're all self reporting that they're drinking lower volumes in aggregate and that, you know, and that kind of seems to track through that, you know, things are obviously people are drinking less beer in general, and that those numbers are coming down.

销售数字在下降。

The sales numbers are down.

销量数字在下降。

Volume numbers are down.

但这并不意味着喝酒的人变少了。

But that doesn't mean that fewer people are drinking.

这只是意味着他们总体上喝酒的频率稍微降低了一些，或者喝的量减少了，比如喝两瓶啤酒而不是四瓶。

It just means they have generally been drinking a little bit less often or drinking a lower volume, drinking two beers instead of four.

而且，你知道，如果你喝两瓶而不是四瓶，我就减少了50%。

And, you know, you drink two beers in nine instead of four, and I got a 50% reduction.

从数学上讲，当这种情况在大量饮酒者中成倍增加时，其影响会变得非常显著，而且速度非常快。

And mathematically, you start multiplying that over lots and lots of drinkers, and it gets really significant really, really fast.

今年，我们开始看到，嗯，这种情况甚至更多了，嘿。

This year, we're starting to see, you know, even more of this, hey.

也许去年的说法并不完全正确，或者没有完全说到点子上。

Maybe last year's narrative wasn't quite right or quite on the money.

年轻人如果财务状况比现在更好，他们可能会喝得更多，但住房成本和商品价格相对于收入来说实在是太高了，你知道，这在一定程度上抑制了这类消费。

Young people are would probably drink more if they had a better financial position than they're in currently, but the cost of housing and cost of goods is is so extremely, you know, the relative to income that, you know, that's putting some hamper on that kind of thing.

你明白吗？

You know?

而且，总的来说，你知道吗，我们甚至在今年，我刚刚看到GQ的一位撰稿人发了一篇文章，说我的新年决心是在2026年喝更多的酒。

And and in but in general, you know, we're also I mean, there even this year, I just saw an article floating around from a writer in GQ about how my New Year's resolution is to drink more in 2026.

所以我在想，是否正在发生一种文化转变，还是说这只是我们自己挑选了一些想听的轶事，来让自己感觉好一点。

And so I'm wondering if there's a cultural shift, afoot if this is just us self selecting some of the anecdotal points that we want to hear to, to make ourselves feel better.

从你的角度来看，你认为在北美，不同世代以及啤酒饮用者或潜在啤酒饮用者中，广泛的饮酒习惯到底在发生什么变化？

You know, from from your perspective, what do you what do you think is really happening amongst drinking broader drinking habits amongst various generations and beer drinkers or potential beer drinkers, you know, in North America?

总的来说，我认为人们在选择何时饮酒时，绝对变得更加有目的性了。

Well, broadly, I think people are definitely being more purposeful with when they choose to drink.

我认为人们开始更加重视面对面的聚会，去实体店喝酒时根本不会多想一杯生啤的价格，因为你是为这一刻而来的。

I think people are beginning to, this is a trend I hope that continues on, like really prioritize more in person meetups, know, heading to the on premise and not really even thinking twice about what a beer costs on draft because you're there for this moment.

我最近和孩子们去打保龄球，一个人玩两局并租鞋的费用大约是27美元。

You know, I went bowling recently with my kids, and the cost to bowl two games and rent shoes for one person was like $27.

而这差不多就是三杯精酿啤酒的价格。

And so that's pretty much what like three craft beers would cost.

但我身边很多人都告诉我，精酿啤酒太贵了。

And I have all these people telling me like craft beer is way too expensive.

我就想问，你确定不是因为其他所有东西都涨价了，才觉得啤酒贵吗？

And I'm like, well, are you sure it doesn't just cost what everything else costs?

你最近买过电影票吗？看看那价格有多高？

Have you tried to buy a movie ticket lately and seen, like, how much those costs?

我觉得所有东西的价格都涨了。

Like, I think everything has just gone up.

但我觉得人们总体上还是愿意支付的，因为他们已经在其他方面大幅削减开支，所以啤酒的价格变得越来越不重要了。

But I think people in general are willing to pay it because they're cutting back so much, so the cost of the beer is mattering less and less.

所以这是我们正在看到的一个趋势。

So that's a trend we're seeing.

我确实认为千禧一代，尤其是那些最热衷于精酿啤酒的人群，是当前削减开支最多的世代。

I I I do think millennials, especially the people that got the most into craft beer are is the generation cutting back the most right now.

而且有一些趋势让这种行为感觉更加被接受。

And there's trends that are making that even feel more acceptable.

人们对此更加自豪，你知道，乐于将其视为一种荣誉徽章，而不是越来越觉得需要为自己不喝酒或少喝酒而辩解。

It's something people are more proud of, you know, okay with wearing as a badge of honor instead of like less and less feeling to need to explain themselves for not drinking or drinking less.

你知道吗，有时候如果我想控制一下，比如要去参加派对，但第二天早上七点还得带孩子去某个地方，可我又想在派对上玩得开心。

You know, a thing I do sometimes when I wanna cut back if I'm going to a party and I'm like, man, I really I gotta take the kids somewhere at 7AM tomorrow, but I wanna have fun at this party.

有时候我会在头一个小时里不喝酒。

Sometimes I just won't have a drink for the first hour.

与其早早地就不喝了，我会这样——头一个小时不喝酒很容易做到，然后我只喝两三杯，这样状态会更好。

Instead of like cutting it off early, I'll just like and I can easily get away for this first hour without having one, then I'll only have two or three and be in a better spot.

总之，我觉得人们都在找到自己的方式，不管是交替饮酒，还是通过一些早期的中酒精度啤酒。

Anyway, I just think people are finding their own ways, whether it's the through zebra striping, through, you know, some of the it's so early on the mid strength beers.

我觉得这些才刚刚开始。

I think those are like just getting started.

但这些做法在某些情境下确实非常合理。

But there's there's a narrative for where those make a ton of sense.

所以我认为这就是为什么人们对这种做法越来越开放。

So I think that's why there's more and more openness to that.

哇。

Wow.

哇。

Wow.

如果你能用更低的酒精度给我想要的风味，我立马同意。

If you can give me the flavor that I'm looking for in less ABV, sign me up.

对于每一个这样的人，都会有人觉得这毫无道理。

For every one of those people, there's someone that says, that makes no sense.

这对我来说毫无意义。

That makes no sense to me.

那是因为他们不认为自己有问题，也许他们确实没有。

That's because they don't have they don't think they have a problem, and maybe they don't.

但其他人会说，是的，我确实很需要某种能帮我分担一些工作的东西。

But other people are like, yeah, I really could use something that kinda does some of the the work for me.

我很想继续喝四杯啤酒，但又希望它能像平时两杯啤酒那样让我有感觉，就是那种情况。

I would love to continue drinking four beers, and I want it to hit me like two beers normally would, that type of thing.

所以这就是为什么我经常谈论这个趋势，实际上从去年就开始了。

So that's why that's always a a trend I talk about a lot really since last year.

特别是在精酿啤酒领域，你知道的，我觉得大家都能理解这一点，而且这方面的数据不容易获取。

In craft, specifically, you know, I think everybody can relate to this, and this isn't something that's easy to have data on.

但如果你进入了精酿啤酒的世界，你自然会关注很多精酿酒厂。

But if you got into craft beer, you naturally followed a lot of craft breweries.

你总能在社交媒体上看到新酒发布的信息。

You were seeing new releases on social media all the time.

你会想经常光顾酒厂、瓶装酒店，或者任何能买到这些新酒的地方。

You wanted to frequent breweries, bottle shops, wherever you could purchase these releases.

这就变成了一种习惯，你看到某款啤酒就想要，然后四瓶或六瓶就进了你的冰箱。

And that became a thing you did because you'd see something and you're like, well, I want that, and then a four pack or a six pack is in your fridge.

但这些啤酒积累得很快，我还没说那些稀有的桶陈啤酒，就连IPA和其他类似风格的啤酒也是如此。

But those would compile fast, and I'm not even talking about the rare barrel aged stuff, even just IPAs and and other styles like that.

但这让你一整周都得赶着喝完它们。

But that puts a pressure on you all week to get through it.

所以我认为很多人又回到了轮流饮酒、展示自己喝的啤酒那种模式，比如在Untappd和Instagram上晒啤酒，吸引很多人互动。

And so I think a lot of people were back to the, like, rotation and showing off what you're drinking, the communal part of, like, untapped and Instagramming your beers and getting a lot of people reacting.

那怎么样？

Oh, how is that?

我想试试那个。

I wanted to try that.

我该买吗？

Should I get it?

值不值得？

Is it worth it?

在某种程度上，很多人已经有点放弃了持续跟进这些事情。

There's a lot less there's people have kinda given up on keeping on keeping up with these things to some extent.

就像你说的，现在有克制，回归到旗舰产品。

There's restraint, like you said, back to flagships.

可炫耀的东西变少了。

There's less to show off.

我认为，啤酒爱好者之间的那种交流也变少了，这种氛围已经有点消退了。

There's less, you know, of that kind of communication, I think, happening among beer enthusiasts as it's kind of died down a little bit.

所以我认为，这催生了一些工作日里的饮酒场合，很多人独自或与配偶等一起消费精酿啤酒，比如在周三喝一杯，因为他们想有个可以打卡分享的东西，并且能在评论里和别人来回交流口感如何。

So I think that that has made occasions during the week where a lot of craft beer consumed by people by themselves, know, or with their spouse or something like that having a beer on a Wednesday because they wanted to have something to check-in and have, you know, people that they're going back and forth with on the comments about how it tastes.

随着人们回归那些精心打造的旗舰款，可聊的话题就变少了，更多只是享受他们想喝的啤酒。

As people are going back to those dialed in flagships, there's less to talk about there, and it's more about just enjoying the beer they want.

总之，这就是我所说的更有目的性——在外出时喝更多啤酒，并且感觉压力更小了，不用非得把冰箱塞满那些需要努力喝完的限量版一次性啤酒。

So anyway, that's what I mean by, like, more purposeful, having more beers when they're out, and feeling less pressure to, you know, have a fridge full of one off limited edition beers that they're trying to get through.

这就是为什么我认为那些啤酒卖得没那么好了。

And that's why I think those beers are not selling as well.

我甚至注意到我自己在买啤酒时也有这种变化。

I I even noticed it amongst my you know, with my own kind of beer purchases.

我觉得，我不需要经常去商店买啤酒，因为为我们杂志品评的啤酒已经多到足以让我喝上十年，更别说一年了。

I think, like, I don't have to go to stores and buy beer very often just because simply tasting all the beer that, you know, that we have to evaluate for the magazine that, you know, is a not more than enough beer for me to drink over ten years, much less one year.

要喝完大家寄给我们的几百甚至上千种啤酒，压力真的很大。

Like, it's a it's an extraordinary amount of pressure, to get through the hundreds and hundreds of beers, you the people sent us.

话虽如此，当我确实出门去啤酒吧，和朋友聚会时——我仍然会特意这样做，因为你说得对。

So having said that, like, you know, when I do go out for a beer and, at a at a beer bar, meet up with friends, which I still do make a point of doing because I think you're absolutely right.

和别人一起在社交场合喝酒，远比一个人坐在餐桌前对一杯啤酒进行过度分析要有趣得多。

The drinking beer with other people in a social sphere and out is way more fun than sitting there and hyperanalyzing a beer and a glass as I sit at my dining room table.

就是说，出门喝酒确实更开心。

Like, it's just you know, it's more fun to be out.

但如果我出门买啤酒，只会选那寥寥几种中的一种。

But if I do go out and buy something, it's gonna be one of a very, you know, small number of things.

我对购买那种涵盖广泛啤酒种类的四瓶装组合，兴趣越来越小了。

And I am less interested in, like, trying to buy a four pack from across this broad spectrum of beers out there and fridges.

而且，你知道，如果我走进我当地的酒类商店，看到他们有西行精选或西行IPA，你知道，就是那种四罐装放在冷藏柜里的，我就会买那个。

And if, you know, if I walk into my local liquor store and they've got a westbound select or westbound IPA, you know, a pack four pack in the in the, you know, cooler, like, I'm going to buy that.

如果他们有利口姆布雷的高端款，我也会买那个。

If they've got LaCoumbre elevated, I'm going to buy that.

我会喝那些，你知道，因为如果我只是在家里喝，和我妻子、孩子们一起消磨时间，你知道，我不需要坐在那里过度分析或探索什么。

I'm going to drink those, you know, because if I'm drinking just, you know, at home to and while I'm hanging out with my wife and my kids, like, you know, I don't need to sit there and hyperanalyze or explore things.

我只想要我熟悉的东西，而且只会是我知道的最顶尖的那些。

I just want something I know, but it's only gonna be the very best things that I know are the very best.

而且我不需要在其他任何东西上冒险。

And I don't need to take risks on anything else.

我，你知道，我在所有其他方面都那么做了。

I, you know, I I do that in all the others.

你知道，就像，如果我去酒吧，你几乎可以点任何一款一品脱的啤酒，然后，你知道，尝试一下。

You know, like, whereas if I go out to a bar, like, you can order one pint of just about anything and, you know, take a flyer on it.

但即便如此，我可能还是会点那个比尔斯塔特拉格啤酒或者那个同志超级力量IPA，那些我知道肯定会好喝的东西。

But even then, I will still probably order that Bierstadt lager or that Comrade Superpower IPA, those things that like, I just know they're gonna be good.

而且我也不太确定。

And I don't know.

我觉得这是个挺有意思的现象，但我也认为这对啤酒行业整体是积极的，因为它表明，你知道，这里存在某种择优机制的益处。

I think that's an interesting kind of thing, but I also think that it's positive for beer in general because what it says is that, you know, there is some benefit of the meritocracy there.

如果你能酿造出极其出色的啤酒，你就能在当下的市场中成功打造出增长品牌。

If you make extraordinarily good beer, you can be successful with growing brands in this current market.

它们只需要做到极其出色就行。

They just have to be extraordinarily good.

确实如此。

And Absolutely.

如今在面向大众的流通市场中，中低端产品的生存空间确实不大。

There's not a lot of space at the middle and bottom of the market out there in the distributed kind of consumer world these days.

同意。

Agreed.

而且有很多很多酿酒厂在这方面做得非常出色。

And there are there are breweries, a ton of breweries doing it exceptionally well.

而且他们都擅长把各种小事做好。

And they all tend to just do a lot of the little things well.

我总是会提到的一点是，他们的社交媒体动态。

And one thing I always point to is, you know, their social media feed.

有时候，你会看到一些啤酒品质顶尖的酿酒厂，人们谈论它们时满是好评，对某些酿酒厂只有正面评价。

When sometimes you see some of the highest quality brewers out there in terms of the beer beer that they make and just the way people talk about them and just have nothing but positive things to say about certain breweries.

很多时候，你去看他们的社交媒体，每一张啤酒倒入杯中的照片都看起来完美无瑕。

A lot of times you go to their social media feed and every picture of the beer in a glass just also looks perfect.

这些啤酒口感绝佳，但他们确保展示时的照片不是手机拍的模糊歪斜图片。

Those beers taste perfect, but they make sure that when it's shown, it's not a blurry crooked picture from a cell phone.

而是一张赏心悦目的照片，进一步强化了高品质的形象。

It's actually a nice looking shot that helps further that quality narrative.

这就是我为什么总是喜欢谈论社交媒体以及你能在那里做的那些事。

And that's why I always like to talk about social and the things you can do on there.

比如Treehouse，这家酿酒厂被很多人高度推崇，实至名归。

And, know, just thinking of like a Treehouse, one of the the breweries that many hold in the highest regard deservedly.

所以你看他们的社交媒体动态，每一张啤酒的照片都完美无瑕。

So You look at their social feed and every picture of every beer just looks immaculate.

这不仅仅是他们，其他几乎所有目前表现良好的精酿啤酒厂也都如此。

And it's not just them, it's it's other breweries that are also pretty much every brewery that's doing well right now.

你看看爱荷华州的Big Grove、加利福尼亚的Fieldwork，你总能听到它们持续增长的消息，无论是分销数量的提升，还是开设了第二家、第三家酒馆。

You look at breweries like Big Grove in Iowa, fieldwork in California, who you're just hearing continued growth, whether that's their numbers in distribution or adding another taproom, adding another taproom.

如果它们还在不断开设第七、第八、第九家酒馆，那说明其他酒馆的生意一定非常火爆。

Well, the other taprooms must be doing really well if they're continuing to add numbers seven, eight, and nine in some of these cases.

是的，我就是喜欢深入研究那些我听说表现不错的啤酒厂。

And, yeah, it's just I I like to dig into those breweries that I hear doing well.

从我能看到的数据中，我发现它们确实表现优异。

I see in the numbers that I get to look at that they're doing well there.

然后我去查看它们的社交媒体动态，看到的都是清晰、完美的画面，完全契合这种高品质的叙事。

And then I go to their social media feed, and I just see crisp, perfect, everything that goes along with that quality narrative.

而且，你知道，这种风格也延伸到了酒馆本身的环境。

And, you know, that also tends to extend out into the spaces themselves.

比如，你会看到干净的酿造车间、优质的社交媒体，还有在客户服务中对细节的极致关注，很好的——

Like, you see a clean brew house, you see good social media, you see, you know, a very a tight attention to detail in customer service, good well I

我正想说一支受过良好培训的员工团队，你抢在我前面说了。

was gonna say a well educated staff, you beat me to the punch.

没错。

Exactly.

是的。

Yeah.

这种品质感往往会延伸到所有这些消费者接触点上，比如酒水本身的品质，以及消费者在每一个接触点上所能体验到的品牌品质。

It tends to extend across all of these kind of consumer touch points and, you know, and so quality in the glass, quality in every kind of point where a consumer is gonna come into, you know, come in and experience that kind of brand.

对。

I Yep.

我完全同意你的观点。

I absolutely agree with you here.

我本来还可以再聊一个小时甚至更久，但你得去忙你的事了。

I could keep talking about this for another hour or more, but you've gotta get on with your day.

我还有些事情要处理。

I've got some things to do.

我今晚要去丹佛，为科罗拉多酿酒师杯担任啤酒评审。

I'm gonna go out on to Denver and judge some beer tonight for the Colorado brewers cup.

因此，从布局到生产流程，G and D冷却器带来了实际的专业知识，并构建了持久可靠的系统。Berkeley Yeasts的Dry Tropics London提供了他们最畅销的液体酵母菌株，同时具备干酵母的易用性。

So from layout to production flow, G and D chillers brings real world expertise and builds reliable systems that last Berkeley Yeasts Dry Tropics London offers their best selling liquid yeast strain with the ease of use of dry yeast.

Pactex手柄由100%回收塑料制成，并且完全可回收。

Pactex handles are made from 100% recycled plastic, and they're fully recyclable.

来自Indy Hops的Strata Cryo让酿酒师比以往任何时候都更容易利用Strata酒花。

Strata cryo from Indy hops makes strata easier than ever for brewers to tap into.

美的5050 Flex只需轻触按钮，即可转换为全冷藏、全冷冻或半冷藏半冷冻模式。

The Midea fifty fifty flex can convert to all fridge, all freezer, or half and half with just the touch of a button.

信赖Old Orchard，以有竞争力的价格提供最高品质的流行风味混合果汁，而Brightly软件则能增强您的数据驱动决策能力。

Trust Old Orchard for the highest quality trending flavor blends at competitive prices, and Brightly software enhances your data driven decision making.

如果您喜欢本期播客，请访问beerandbrewing.com网站。

If you've enjoyed this podcast, go to the beerandbrewing.com website.

点击那个订阅按钮。

Click on that subscribe button.

成为《精酿啤酒与酿造》杂志的订阅用户。

Become a subscriber to craft beer and brewing magazine.

如果你身处啤酒行业，可以考虑我们的行业全通订阅，这不仅能让你获得《精酿啤酒与酿造》杂志，还包括我们的《酿造行业指南》杂志，这两本都仍有纸质版发行。

And if you are out there in the beer industry, consider our industry all access subscription that gets you not just craft beer and brewing, but also our brewing industry guide magazine, both both of them print, still in print.

我还要补充，这还包括我们所有的视频课程、每周行业全通邮件，内含当今啤酒界一些顶尖作家的独家报道，以及所有这些内容。

I will add also all of our video classes, our all industry all access weekly emails with exclusive stories from some of the best writers in beer today, and all of that.

此外，您的啤酒厂还有机会免费提交啤酒样品，供《精酿啤酒与酿造》杂志进行评测。

Also, your brewery gives you the the opportunity to submit beers for free for review in craft beer and brewing magazine.

所有这些信息，都可以在beerandbrewing.com上找到，请务必订阅。

All of those things, that's at beerandbrewing.com, and subscribe.

再次感谢我的商业伙伴——或者说现在已是前商业伙伴——海登·施特劳斯，感谢他十一年来出色的专注工作，帮助我们为您带来最优质的内容、最棒的啤酒体验、最精彩的活动，以及我们所专注的一切其他事务。

Once again, thanks to my business partner Hayden or now former business partner Hayden Strauss for eleven years of awesome dedicated work in helping us bring you the best content, the best beer experiences, the best events, and everything else that we have been focusing on.

祝您未来在科技领域的职业生涯一切顺利。

All the best in your career in the world of tech in the future.

结束后我也要和他去喝一杯。

I'm also gonna meet up with him for a beer after this.

这是他在精酿啤酒与酿造杂志和Unfiltered Media的最后一个周五。

His last Friday here at Craft Beer and Brewing and Unfiltered Media.

道格，如果大家想了解更多关于你在Bright Bev、Beer Aficionado和Beer Crunchers的工作，他们可以在哪些数字平台上找到你？

Doug, if people wanna learn more about what you do with Bright Bev, with Beer Aficionado, with Beer Crunchers, where can they find you out there off in all of the digital spaces?

当然可以。

Sure.

我很容易被找到，你可以在Instagram和TikTok上通过'beer aficionado'找到我，那里有一些短视频内容，而我更长的博客/通讯文章则在beercrunchers.substack.com上，另外bright/bev.com是我们公司的网站。

I am easy to track down but you can find me on Instagram and TikTok at beer aficionado for some of the short form content and then my longer blog slash newsletter posts are at beercrunchers.substack.com and then bright/bev.com is our businesses website as well.

一直很欣赏你对啤酒界动态及所有这一切的见解。

Always appreciate your perspective on what's going on in the world of beer and all this.

和你交谈真是太棒了。

It's been awesome to talk with you.

干杯。

Cheers.

这真有趣，杰米。

That was fun, Jamie.

谢谢你邀请我。

I appreciate you having me.

本播客由《精酿啤酒与酿造》杂志赞助，献给所有热爱酿造与品饮优质啤酒的人。

This podcast has been brought to you by Craft Beer and Brewing magazine for those who love to make and drink great beer.

如需了解更多信息或订阅，请访问 beerandbrewing.com，或在社交媒体上关注我们：craft beer brew。

To learn more or to subscribe, visit beerandbrewing.com or find us on social media at craft beer brew.