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一个经过精心打造的衣橱,关键在于那些能够很好搭配且经久耐用的单品。
A thoughtfully built wardrobe comes down to pieces that mix well and last.
这就是Quince的出色之处。
That's where Quince shines.
优质的面料注重日常必需品的设计,穿着舒适自然,并且能随季节更替依然可靠。
Premium fabrics consider design in everyday essentials that feel effortless to wear, and they're dependable as the seasons change.
Quince拥有我钟爱的日常必需品,品质持久耐用。
Quince has everyday essentials I love with quality that lasts.
轻盈的羊绒毛衣、短袖蒙古羊绒Polo衫、100%皮马棉T恤,以及欧洲亚麻混纺针织面料。
Lightweight cashmere sweaters, short sleeve Mongolian cashmere polos, tees in 100% Pima cotton, and European jersey linen.
这些多功能单品,才能真正打造出一个四季皆宜的实用衣橱。
These are the versatile pieces that make a wardrobe that actually work season to season.
Quince直接与顶级工厂合作,省去中间商环节,因此你支付的不是品牌溢价或奢华零售店的费用,而是纯粹为高品质服装买单。
Quince works directly with top factories and cuts out the middleman, so you're not paying for brand markup or fancy retail stores, just paying for that quality clothing.
他们只与符合精湛工艺和道德生产严格标准的工厂合作。
And they only partner with factories that meet the rigorous standards for craftsmanship and ethical production.
伙计们,你们听过我之前提到的赢家,我回家时用Quince买了很棒的夹克和毛衣。
Guys, you heard me talk about the winner when I was going home, how I used quints to get an awesome winner get up their jackets and sweaters when I went home for the holidays.
但我住在佛罗里达,现在是时候为我的衣橱开启新一季的升级了。
But I live in Florida, so now it's time to start that next evolution of the year for my wardrobe.
我正在查看他们的衬衫。
I'm checking out their shirts.
我正在浏览他们的T恤,他们的网站导航非常有趣,选择丰富。
I'm checking out their tees, and their website is super fun to navigate with so many options.
你们现在就得去Quince看看。
So you gotta go to Quince and check it out right now.
访问 quince.com/crypto101,享受免费配送和365天无理由退换。
Go to quince.com/crypto101 for free shipping and three hundred and sixty five day returns.
整整一年时间让你打造衣橱并爱上它,你一定会的。
That's a full year to build your wardrobe and love it, and you will.
现在在加拿大也能购买了。
Now available in Canada too.
别再将就那些不耐穿的衣服了。
Don't keep settling for clothes that don't last.
去Quince.com/crypto101,享受免费配送和365天无理由退换。
Go to quince, quinse.com/crypto101 for free shipping and three hundred and sixty five day returns.
Quince.com/crypto10one。
Quince.com/crypto10one.
好了,各位。
Alright, everybody.
欢迎回到由Gemini冠名的Crypto 101播客,这里是通往未来货币的桥梁。
Welcome back to the Crypto one zero one podcast presented by Gemini, your bridge to the future of money.
比特币会不会出现逼空行情?
And is there a short squeeze looming for Bitcoin?
Jane Street 这周戴上了锡纸帽。
Jane Street is wearing the tinfoil hat this week.
他们在压低比特币的价格吗?
Are they holding Bitcoin's price down?
我们将讨论这个问题。
We're going to discuss it.
我们会告诉你这到底是怎么回事。
We're going to let you know what that was all about.
MicroStrategy和迈克尔·塞韦尔也可能正在发生一场可能的空头挤压。
And there is a possible short squeeze happening with MicroStrategy and Michael Saylor as well.
我们掌握了数据、事实,并且今天请来了布伦丹,为我们深入剖析所有技术分析相关内容。
We have the data, we have the facts, and we have Brendan with us to do a deep dive on all things technical analysis today.
很高兴布伦丹再次回来。
So glad to have Brendan back.
我们很快就要深入分析图表了,所以请继续关注。
We are going to dive into the charts very, very shortly, so stick around.
这里有很多内容要讲,如果有什么特别想看的部分,可以查看下方的时间戳。
There's a lot to cover here, so check the timestamps below if there's something specific you want to do or, sorry, wanna watch.
布伦丹,欢迎回到我们的简报。
But, Brendan, welcome back to the rundown.
很高兴你在这个周五能来。
It's good to have you this Friday.
你怎么样?
How are you?
老兄,真是令人兴奋的周五啊。
Dude, happy freaking Friday.
是的,先生。
Yes, sir.
这周加密市场波动剧烈,一度跌到大约62千、64千,又反弹到接近70千。
Lots of volatility here in the crypto market this week going down to, like, what, 62 k almost, 64 k, back up to almost 70 k.
发生了好多事,但你说得对。
Lots of stuff happening, but you're right.
现在大家都在热议可能的逼空行情。
There's there's all this talk about the idea of a short squeeze.
让我告诉你,我其实非常认同这个观点。
And let me tell you, I actually quite agree with it.
我认为我们已经开始看到逼空现象发生了。
I think that we are starting to see a squeeze happen.
而且,这种逼空可能带来的影响或后果可能会非常大,蒂沃。
And the, I guess, implications or the repercussions of a squeeze like this could be pretty big, Tivo.
嗯。
Mhmm.
很多人正在关注加密市场,说:嘿。
Lots of people are looking at the crypto market saying, hey.
我们可能即将做一件大事。
You know, we're probably getting ready to do something big.
对吧?
Right?
那么,这会是上涨还是下跌呢?
Now is that gonna be to the upside or downside?
我们会讨论这一点,以及我们的一些理论和想法。
We'll talk about that and some of the theories and thoughts that we have.
但确实,你知道,各种重大的催化剂都在发生。
But, yeah, you know, all sorts of big catalysts.
我的意思是,无论你谈论的是银行、空头挤压、Jane Street,还是其他各种理论,背后都有不少大事在酝酿。
I mean, whether you're talking about banks or the short squeeze or Jane Street or different theories that are out there, there's some big stuff happening behind the scenes.
我们这里最热衷的事情就是梳理所有新闻、技术指标和基本面信息,然后在不到一小时内整理好,免费提供给你们观看和收听。
And our favorite thing over here is to go through all the news, all the technicals, all the fundamentals, and review it all and then package it in under an hour for all of you to view and listen to completely for free.
正如史蒂夫所说,如果你喜欢我们这里的内容,我们唯一的请求就是点击点赞和订阅按钮。
So as Steve has said, you know, if you like it and you like what we do here, all we ask is that you hit the like and subscribe button.
如果你是在Spotify、Apple Podcasts、Audible或其他播客平台收听,也请来YouTube关注我们。
You know, if you are listening on one of the podcast channels like Spotify or Apple Podcasts or or Audible or something like that, give us a check out on YouTube.
也许可以在那里给我们留个评价,但一定要来YouTube关注我们。
You know, maybe leave us a review on there, but check us out on YouTube.
在那里,你才能看到所有视觉内容、图表以及我们将在屏幕上展示的文章。
It's where you're gonna be able to see all of the visuals, all the charts, and and articles that we're gonna be putting on the screen for you.
所以快来关注我们吧,因为我们还会发布各种其他市场动态、播客和教程等内容。
So check us out over there because we do all sorts of other market updates and podcasts and tutorials and things of that nature.
所以,Tivo,咱们直接开始吧。
So, Tivo, I mean, let's kick it right off here.
嗯。
Mhmm.
是的。
Yeah.
今天是周五,有时候周五我们会轻松一下,找点乐子。
It's it's Friday, and sometimes on Fridays, like to have a little fun.
我觉得我在聊天里看到Fitz了。
I think I see Fitz in the chat.
Grant在这里。
Grant is here.
Deb也在。
Deb's here.
CJE也在。
CJE's here.
传言称这次CJE实际上在东海岸的佛罗里达。
Rumor is CJE's actually in Florida on the East Coast this time.
太棒了。
Love that.
你也知道,CJ偶尔会戴上铝箔帽。
You also know that CJ likes to pull up a tinfoil hat every once in a while.
我感觉这个Jane Street的事情已经真的有了自己的生命。
That's what I'm feeling like this Jane Street thing has gotten a literal a, you know, mind of its own.
它以一种有毒的铝箔帽方式在加密推特上蔓延开来,但其中确实有些真实性。
It's kind of spread through crypto Twitter in a toxic tinfoil Hattie way, but there is some truth to it.
这是一种典型的情况——有烟必有火。
It's one of those things where, hey, where there's smoke, maybe there's some fire.
在我们深入讨论我们看到的加密相关谣言之前,我先放一段视频。
Just to kind of before we dive into the crypto specific rumors that we saw, I I pulled this clip.
这段视频有三分钟长。
It's three minutes long.
我们不会听完整的部分,但只是想说明一下,彭博电视台也在讨论这件事。
We're not gonna listen to whole thing, but just to show like, hey, Bloomberg Television is even talking about this.
不管是加密货币的恐慌情绪、Terra和Luna的恐慌情绪,还是与印度市场有关的传言。
Whether it was the crypto FUD, the the Terra, the Luna FUD, or the it was around the India markets.
我相信印度曾对Jane Street提起过诉讼。
I believe there was a lawsuit out of India towards Jane Street.
所以让我们先听一听,看看其他人是怎么谈论这件事的,作为铺垫,然后再深入探讨更具体的加密货币相关内容。
So let's just tune in and hear what you know, other people are talking about this to give us a tee up, and then we'll dive into the more crypto specific stuff.
这家公司,它在华尔街的声誉是如何变化的?
This company, how has the reputation been changing on Wall Street?
所以,我们正开始看到事情逐渐展开。
So that's what we're starting to see unfold.
这是一家一直隐身幕后的企业。
This is a firm that has been in the background.
它的影响力正在逐渐提升。
They're growing in prominence.
他们一年的收入高达数十亿美元。
They're making billions of dollars of revenue in the year.
他们的收入从2023年到2024年翻了一倍,但如今他们实现这一增长的方式已被公之于众。
They doubled that revenue from 2023 to 2024, but now the way that they're doing that has been thrust into the open.
因此,印度监管机构正在展开调查,并公开了大量文件,逐分钟、逐小时地展示这家公司的交易行为,以及他们从中获得的利润。
So you have this probe out in India from the regulators that is releasing documents that minute by minute, hour by hour, they're showing not just the trades that this firm is inputting, but the amount of money that they're making doing it, the profit.
因此,在华尔街,他们的竞争对手以及对此感到好奇、希望分析这家公司的运作方式的人们,都在仔细研究这些文件。
And so you've seen across Wall Street, their competitors and just folks that are curious and want to kind of analyze how this firm is doing what they do, they're pouring through these documents.
这是一个非常不寻常的时刻,因为这家公司在以往通常只是躲在幕后,悄然运作。
It's such an unusual time because this is a firm that otherwise can just be, again, behind the scenes, behind a curtain, and operate in the way that they have been.
他们成立于2000年,所以这并不是一夜之间发生的事。
They've been founded in 2000, so it's not as if this has happened overnight.
他们一直在逐步发展。
They've evolved over time.
这里不同的是,正如你提到的声誉问题
What is different here is as you bring up the reputation
杰德街的声誉正面临危机,布伦南。
The Jade Street's reputation's under fire, Brennan.
我再把第二件事调出来,我们稍后再深入讨论加密货币相关的内容,但他们似乎在印度市场做了一些印度监管机构不喜欢的事情。
As I pull up the second thing again, we'll dive into the crypto specific stuff in a second, but they seem to be doing something in the Indian markets that the India regulators do not like.
看起来他们可能要禁止杰德街进入本地市场。
Looks like they're maybe banning Jane Street from local markets.
这里有个有趣的事实,我认为萨姆·班克曼-弗里德曾经在杰德街工作过。
And just a fun fact here, I believe Sam Bankman Fried used to work at Jane Street.
所以,你知道,他们过去确实和一些不太靠谱的人有牵连。
So, know, not not independently not aware of some some sketchy people of their past.
但让我们来看看我从Bull Theory找到的那条长推文,它详细分析了杰德街导致的400亿美元Luna崩盘事件。
But let's pull up the big long tweet I found this from Bull Theory kind of breaking down the Jane Street $40,000,000,000 Luna collapse.
然后我想听听你的看法,布伦南。
And then just wanna get your thoughts on it, Brendan.
你听说了什么?
What have you heard?
你看到了什么?
What have you seen?
我觉得,具体来说,这个说法已经发展到人们认为‘这就是比特币下跌的原因’了。
I think specifically, you know, the the the narrative got to the point where it was, oh, this is why Bitcoin's down.
我不认为我们真的相信这一点,但这里有很多疑点,很可能 somewhere 真的有火苗。
I I don't I don't think we we believe in that, but it there's a lot of smoke here, and there's probably some fire somewhere.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道,目前这 mostly 只是指控,我希望真相能浮出水面。
You know, right now, this is mostly allegations, and I hope that the truth does come to the spotlight.
因为我觉得人们值得得到一个答案。
Because I think people deserve an answer.
如果这种情况真的发生过,我们必须确保它不会再重演。
And if this was happening, we need to make sure that it it doesn't happen again.
但说到整个Jane Street事件,人们担忧并有些不满的是,他们被指控在Terra Luna崩盘中扮演了角色。
But when it comes to the whole Jane Street incident, what people are concerned and a little bit upset about here is the allegation that they had a role in the Terra Luna crash.
所以他们的想法是,他们故意操纵市场以策划这场崩盘。
And so the idea behind it is that they were purposely manipulating the markets to orchestrate this crash.
并且在知道会导致这场崩盘的情况下,他们还做了空单,从崩盘中获利。
And then knowing that they would cause this crash, they were also short and benefiting off of the crash itself and profiting from it.
所以他们不仅进行了市场操纵,还引发了加密货币历史上最大规模的崩盘之一?
So not only were they doing market manipulation and caused one of the biggest crashes and and blowups in crypto history?
他们不仅策划了这一切,还从中获利。
Not only did they orchestrate it, but they also profited off of it as well.
因此,这里的核心观点是,这是其中一方的说法。
And so that seems to be the idea here is that's one side.
另一方则说,嘿。
The second side is, hey.
他们不仅制造了这一场重大崩盘事件,还被指控持续操纵比特币价格走势,以谋取私利。
Not only did they do this one big blowup event, but there's also the idea that they have been continually manipulating Bitcoin and manipulating price action again for their benefit.
而这正是问题被推到聚光灯下的原因。
And so that's really where it comes to the spotlight.
我认为人们感到不满的地方就在于,嘿。
And I think that's where people are upset is, hey.
他们不仅造成了这场极其严重的大规模崩盘事件,你知道,无数人在这次崩盘中亏了钱,而他们正是操纵并从中获利的一方,但他们还在继续对比特币进行操纵,谁知道呢,也许甚至包括其他加密货币。
Not only did they cause this extremely large massive blow up event, you know, tons of people lost money in this kind of collapse, and they were the ones orchestrating and benefiting off of what seems to be manipulation, but then they've continued to do this with Bitcoin and, you know, who knows, maybe even other cryptocurrencies.
因此这里的指控是,据说,他们在两天前被命令停止所有操纵行为。
And so the allegations here are, you know, allegedly, they were ordered to stop all manipulation on, you know, what was it, two days ago?
随后我们看到比特币价格大幅上涨,从62美元反弹了上来。
And then we saw that big pump up in Bitcoin's price as it recovered from 62.
我想我之前在节目开头说过是72美元。
I think I said 72 at the top of the episode.
但从62美元一路回升到70美元,所有人都惊呼:天哪。
But from 62 all the way back up to 70, and everyone's like, oh my goodness.
他们被命令停止操纵行为。
They were ordered to stop the manipulation.
价格就开始飙升,而现在我们看到它又开始回落,目前徘徊在65美元左右。
It started pumping, and now we're starting to see it just come right back down as it's floating around 65 here.
这就是目前情况的宏观概览。
And, you know, that's the high level overview of what's going on.
值得注意的是,这件事至少似乎有几分真实性。
The thing to note here is there at least seems to be a little bit of of potential truth to this.
我们虽然没有全部信息,但以前印度曾对此施压,现在看来,似乎有什么幕后动作正在发生。
Again, we don't have all the information, but when you used to have India doing this and kind of getting on them, It seems to be that, like, something's happening behind the scenes.
这是否正是博利里所言的那样呢?
Now is it exactly what Bolthiri was saying?
我不确定。
I'm not sure.
同样,我们目前还没有掌握全部数据,我们不希望在这里贸然指责他们,说一大堆事情,结果却发现全都是假的。
Again, we just don't have all of the data yet, and what we don't wanna come on here and do is blast them and say all these things and just none of it turns out to be true.
我希望这场诉讼,正如其所称的那样,能进入美国地区法院审理。
My hope here is that, you know, this lawsuit, like it says, it's supposed to go to US district court.
我想看看这件事的结果。
You know, I want to see the results of this.
我最大的疑问是,如果这一切都是假的,该怎么办呢?
And the big question I have is, you know, a, you know, what if this is all false?
对吧?
Right?
那如果真是这样,会发生什么?
Well, what happens then?
而另一方面,如果这一切都是真的,又会怎样?
And then the other side is what happens if it's if it's all true?
因为我不确定有没有办法让所有蒙受损失或收益被压制的人得到补偿,谁知道这种情况在让简街受益的情况下发生了多少次。
Because I'm not sure there's a way to make it right to all the people who had lost money or had their gains suppressed, know, who knows how many times at the benefit of Jane Street.
真的很难说,某个人受到了多大影响,因此应该获得多少赔偿。
There's there's it's really hard to say, oh, this person was impacted by this much, so they're gonna get repaid x amount of money.
我认为这几乎不可能实现,而且首先就很难计算出具体数额,更不用说去赔偿这些人了。
I would say it's near impossible that that is is going to happen, and it's almost impossible to kind of calculate that in the first place, let alone repay the people.
所以我认为我们能做的最重要的一件事,就是建立一种机制,防止这种情况再次发生。
So I think the biggest thing that we can do here is create a way where this doesn't happen again.
我认为这就是大多数人想看到的。
I think that's what most people wanna see.
我认为这也是我们把《清晰法案》和市场结构法案作为一个整体来看的原因。
And I think that's also why we look at the Clarity Act and the market the market structure bill as a whole.
大家希望这项法案通过的部分原因在于,金融机 构、资产管理公司和银行的操作边界将不再模糊,它们能做什么、不能做什么将不再有灰色地带。
It's part of the reason why everybody wants this to get passed is because there's no longer going to be gray lines of how these financial institutions and asset managers and banks there's no longer gonna be a gray line of how they can operate and what they can and can't do.
它会明确指出:
It's gonna say, hey.
以下是被允许的行为和你可以做的事情的明确界限,理论上,这应该能防止大量操纵行为,当然,这取决于规定得有多清晰。
Here are the defined parameters of what is allowed and what you can do, and that should, in theory, actually prevent a lot of manipulation depending on, you know, how clearly it's defined.
所以我认为我们真正应该关注的是:
And so I think that's what we should really be paying attention to here is saying, hey.
我们想看看这项法案实施后会发生什么。
We wanna see what's gonna happen as a result of this.
但展望未来,我们确实需要并希望《市场结构法案》和《清晰法案》等这些措施得以落实,因为这将为我们提供关于这些资产应如何被对待和交易的明确监管。
But moving forward, we really do want and need the market structure bill and the Clarity Act and all these things in place because that should give us very clear regulation on how these assets are supposed to be treated and traded.
如果这种情况发生,并且有团体公然违反规定,那么他们就必须面对法庭,以及罚款和其他问题。
And if this does happen and there's groups that are openly breaking this, then they're gonna have to go face the courts and, you know, fines and other issues.
我唯一担心的是,我们过去曾见过大型资产管理公司和银行进行市场操纵。
My only fear is that, you know, we've seen market manipulations from big asset managers and banks in the past.
而且有很多这样的案例。
And there's been a lot of them that have done this.
我知道摩根大通因此被起诉过,谁知道多少次了,很多公司都这样。
You know, I know JPMorgan has gotten sued for it, you know, who knows how many times, and, you know, a lot of them have.
问题是,提沃,很多时候他们赚的钱比被罚的还要多。
The issue, Tivo, is that a lot of the time, they make more than they're being fined.
我的意思是,假设他们去操作,我随便举个例子。
And so what I mean by that is imagine they go and I'm just making up these numbers.
假设他们通过操纵市场,比如搞到了五亿美元。
But imagine they go and they make $500,000,000 from manipulating, you know, whatever it is, market.
然后他们被罚了三亿美元。
And then they get fined $300,000,000.
归根结底,他们可能会想:我们这么做了,却安然无恙,即使交了三亿美元罚款,还是剩下两亿美元可以继续运作。
Well, at the end of the day, they might look at that and say, oh, well, we did this and we got away with it, and we had 200,000,000 to run with even after 300,000,000 in fines.
所以他们就会说:好吧。
So then they say, okay.
这简直就是罚酒三杯,最终我们还是赚了。
Well, that's really just a slap in the wrist, and we end up profiting at the end of the day.
这就是我对这些问题的担忧:我们需要更多的保护措施。
That's kind of the issue that I have with these is that there needs to be more protection.
因为归根结底,真正付出代价的不是这些机构。
Because at the end of the day, the people who really pay the price not the institutions.
真正承受后果的,还是那些散户交易者和散户投资者。
It's really, again, the retail traders, the retail investors.
这就是我的立场。
So that's where I stand on it.
整个情况就是这样。
That's the whole situation.
而且说实话,我们只是需要更多数据,需要再观察一段时间。
And we truthfully, we just need more more data, and we need to see this go a little bit further.
但我几乎希望情况并非如此,因为那意味着太多负面的东西。
But I almost hope it's not the case because of what that would mean.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
可惜啊,这简直是老生常谈了。
Sadly, it's a tale as old as time.
对吧?
Right?
无论是传统市场还是加密市场,总是存在这种不良行为;甚至从更简单、更浅显的层面看,也有那么多跑路骗局和各种低市值的模因币,我们一直在努力提醒人们远离这些。
Whether it was, you know, traditional markets versus crypto markets and so on and so forth, there's always always this type of bad behavior and you could even on a very simple dumber level, there's so many different rug pulls and all the different low cap meme coins that we try to steer people clear from as well.
但如果有关于Jane Street立场的任何指控,他们就会彻底清空自己的推特。
But if there's any if there's any indictment on how Jane Street's feeling, they they completely wipe their Twitter.
我觉得这真的很有趣,你知道的。
So I thought that was really interesting, you know.
这看起来不太好。
It's not a good look.
完全不是。
Not at all.
你知道吗?
You know?
有这些指控,人们都在问:它们是真的吗?
There's these allegations and people are like, are they true?
他们的第一反应却是删除所有证据。
And their first reaction is wipe all of the evidence.
这对他们来说真的不太好。
Like, it's it's not a good look for them.
没错。
No.
不,确实不是。
No, it's not.
而且我肯定,你知道,如果这件事真的上了法庭,他们首先会做的就是调取所有旧推文和帖子的记录,试图弄清楚他们在哪里向公众发声,以及在哪里进行交易。
And I'm sure, you know, if this does go to the courts, the first thing they'll be doing is getting the logs of all the old tweets and posts and all that stuff and trying to, you know, see where they're communicating out, you know, out to the public versus where and what they're trading.
但关于逼空行情,布兰登,我们确实知道一件事,那就是蒂沃星期五同侧交易策略会出现在MSTR上。
But one thing that we do know for certain when it comes to short squeezes, Brendan, is it's the Tivo Friday same side of the boat trade is gonna be on MSTR.
这里也是同侧交易。
Same side of the boat here.
MSTR成为了全球做空最多的股票。
MSTR becomes the world's most shorted stock.
这里是第一名。
The number one position here.
你可以在这里看到这份名单,看起来策略已经重新夺回了它的位置。
You can see the list here and it looks like strategy has reclaimed its spot.
它以前就在这里过。
It's been there before.
对此有什么看法吗?
Any any thoughts on that?
显然,这就是空头挤压的开端。
Obviously, this is how short squeezes start.
有一些特定的公司。
There's certain companies.
如果你回溯到像GameStop那样的时期,当时做空与可流通股份的比例是关键。
If you go all the way back to like, you know, the GameStop days of, you know, being short versus the float of available shares.
有一些人,我不知道是不是基金,但确实有一些基金经理喜欢玩这种游戏,他们并不在意这到底是比特币还是像GameStop这样的股票,对吧?
There's certain, know, I don't know if it's funds, but there's certain managers out there that like this game and they don't necessarily care whether it's Bitcoin or games like GameStop for example, right?
这家公司的资产负债表一片混乱,但关键在于空头与流通股的比例,有一些公式,也有些交易员专门寻找这类机会。
The company was in disarray on the on the balance sheet, but it it just the short to float and available shares, there's formulas and there's traders out there that look for this stuff.
所以,这件事出现在我的信息流和交易台上,我做了一些研究,这让我感到有些兴奋,因为这吸引了那些并不一定关注加密货币市场的人。
So this is something that came across my feed and desk and I did a little research into that gets me kind of excited in a way Because again, it brings in people that aren't necessarily specific to the crypto markets.
我不禁想,MSTR的多头们能否团结起来,再加上那些开始追踪那些裸卖空、过于激进的交易者?
And and I wonder if, you know, the MSTR bulls can rally behind it along with maybe some of these people that start hunting for some people that that go naked short and and just get too aggressive with it.
是的
Yeah.
不
No.
你说得对
You're right.
微策略公司(Micro Strategy)或MSTR目前的交易方式是,其股价通常与比特币呈现更高的波动性关联。
It's the way that micro strategy trades or MSTR now strategy trades is that it typically trades at a more volatile pairing to Bitcoin.
对吧?
Right?
通常情况下,它的走势会跟随比特币的价格变动,但波动性更大。
That's usually what it does is it tracks Bitcoin's price action, but in a more volatile way.
因此,当我们看到比特币出现了50%的回撤时,MSTR的回撤幅度要大得多。
And so with us seeing, you know, this 50% retracement on Bitcoin, you've seen a much more hefty retracement on MSTR.
所以你可以说,嘿。
And so you could argue, hey.
这个东西应该积累了更多的空头头寸,人们也接受了这种观点。
This thing should have even more shorts built up, and people have leaned into that idea.
你知道,我喜欢讨论的一点是,当我想要做空时,我喜欢做空表现不佳的资产。
Know, You something that I like to talk about is when I like to go short, I like to short the underperforming assets.
我不会去选一个板块。
I'm not gonna go to a sector.
你知道,假设说,嘿。
You know, let's just say, hey.
我想做空加密货币。
I wanna short crypto.
我不会去选表现最好的那个,然后说,哦,我要做空表现最好的那个。
I'm not gonna go to the lead performer and say, oh, I'm gonna short the best performer.
你会说,不。
You're gonna go, no.
我会做空这个细分领域、这个群体中表现最差的那个。
I'm gonna short the worst performer of this niche, of this group.
人们把MSTR视为比特币的特定选择。
And people look at at MSTR as that option for Bitcoin specifically.
所以他们说,我想做空加密货币股票,或者我想做空比特币。
And so what they do is they say, oh, I wanna short crypto stocks or I wanna short Bitcoin.
他们是直接做空比特币,还是做空MSTR,或者做空Galaxy,又或者做空类似这样的标的——他们知道这些标的由于表现不佳而具有更大的下行波动性?
Are they gonna go and short Bitcoin, or are they gonna go short MSTR, or are they gonna go short Galaxy, or are they are they gonna go short something like this, which they know has more volatility to the downside because it's been underperforming?
而这就是你看到的情况。
And that's where you get this.
所以我认为你是对的。
So I think that you're right.
你知道吗?
You know?
我认为很多加密货币目前的位置可能已经超卖,甚至接近超卖的临界点。
I think that a lot of crypto is sitting in the spot where it is probably oversold, if not getting really close to that point.
你可以从技术指标中看出来。
And you can see from technical indicators.
对吧?
Right?
RSI 超卖了。
The RSI oversold.
MACD 达到了有史以来最超卖的水平。
MACD, most oversold it's ever been.
恐惧与贪婪指数,也达到了有史以来最超卖的水平。
The fear and greed index, most sold it's ever been.
对于 RSI 来说,这是有史以来第二低的水平。
For the RSI, it was the second lowest it's ever been.
所以所有这些指标都表明,根据它们的判断,市场已经超卖了。
So all these indicators would say that according to them, it is oversold.
不过,超卖这个说法的难点在于,它其实是个主观概念。
The hard thing about oversold, though, is it's kind of just a made up term.
对吧?
Right?
并没有那种说法,说这已经超卖了,所以它就必须上涨。
There's no like, oh, this is oversold, so it has to go up.
这只是一个我们用来标记那些可能过度下行,或者在没有出现任何反弹的情况下经历了过多下跌的状况的术语。
It's just a way that we label things that are extremely potentially overextended to the downside, or maybe they've seen too much downside without any kind of a relief rally.
我认为人们在这里就是这么看的,他们说:嘿。
And I think that's what people are looking at here and saying, hey.
它可能已经被抛售得比应有的程度更多,而没有出现任何显著的反弹。
It's probably been sold off more than it should have without any kind of a significant bounce happening.
我认为真正有趣的是,一旦我们确实出现空头回补并迎来反弹,接下来会发生什么?
And I think the really interesting thing will be is once we probably do get the short squeeze and we do get the bounce, then what happens?
对吧?
Right?
我认为更值得关注的是,一旦出现这种情况,我们就会说:嘿。
That will be, I think, the more important thing to watch out for is to say, hey.
我们可能会出现空头回补并反弹,但之后会发生什么?
We can have a short squeeze and we can rally, but what happens after that?
我们还能回到高点吗,还是会形成一个明显更低的高点,然后在这样的情况后继续下行?
Are we gonna be able to go back to the highs, or do we just form a significantly lower high and then just resume back to the downside after something like that?
所以我觉得提出这一点很好。
So I think this is good to bring up.
你也会看到这方面的很多变化。
You also see a lot of variety on this.
对吧?
Right?
你会看到策略股,然后是Charter Communications,接着是科技股CoreWeave,然后是加密货币领域的Coinbase,还有Western Digital,以及能源股Bloom Energy。
You see strategy, and then you see Charter Communications, and then CoreWeave, which is tech, and then you see Coinbase, which is crypto, and then you see Western Digital, and then you see Bloom Energy, which is an energy stock.
你还会看到Palo Alto,也就是网络安全领域的公司。
You see Polo Polo Alto, which is, you know, cybersecurity.
网络安全。
Cybersecurity.
这里出现了大量不同类型的股票,但你确实看到很多加密货币相关股票位于顶部,这让我相信,加密货币可能正接近某种超卖状态。
You have just a huge variety up here, but you do see a lot of crypto names towards the top, which would lead me towards believing that, again, you know, crypto's probably reaching some sort of of oversold point.
所以,我们会知道的。
So, you know, we'll find out.
我肯定。
I'm sure.
但我倾向于认为,嘿。
But I'm I am leaning into this idea of saying, hey.
我们可能还会继续下跌,我们会从图表上观察这一点。
We could still go lower, and we'll look at this on the charts.
但我认为值得一看,嘿。
But I think it's a good look to say, hey.
从你对股票方面的观察来看,这里很可能正在发生空头回补。
A short squeeze could definitely be happening here from from what you view on just the equity side.
是的。
Yeah.
还有这个高亮的百分比列,我觉得挺有意思的。
And just the the percent, this highlighted column, I think is interesting.
这是空头头寸占市值的百分比。
It's the short interest as percentage of market cap.
你可以看到,这张表的大部分,90%都在4%到8%之间,而异常值则从10%、11%、12%开始,MicroStrategy达到了14%。
And you can see, you know, the majority of the sheet, 90% of it is, you know, between four and, you know, on the high end eight, and then the outlier starts at ten, eleven, 12 and MicroStrategy is at 14%.
这太疯狂了。
That's crazy.
占市值的百分比。
Of the market cap.
所以这是需要关注的地方。
So something something to keep an eye on.
显然,这是我们之前提到过的,我们会持续跟踪,但接下来我们要转向Brendan为我们做的技术分析。
Obviously something we've highlighted, we'll keep tracking, but we're gonna move on to Brendan doing a little technical analysis for us.
我会把屏幕共享权限交给你,我的朋友。
I'll share the give the screen share away to you my friend.
如果聊天里有几位朋友看到了一些新名字,比如Habish、Cooper,还有我前面提到的所有人,你们如果想要一些股票代码,就直接发在聊天里,我们看看能不能在最后讨论一下。
And if we got a couple people in the chat, saw some new names, Habish, Cooper, plus everybody I mentioned earlier, you know, we'll give us if anybody wants some tickers, toss them in the toss them in the chat and we'll see if we can get to them at the end.
如果你喜欢这个内容,请点赞、投个赞、订阅一下。
And then if you're enjoying this, give it a thumbs up, like, subscribe.
当然,如果你是新来的,点击左下角的标志,现在正是Brendan的技术分析课程开放的时候。
Obviously, if you're new, hit the the logo on the bottom left and it's that time of the cycle where Brendan's technical analysis class is open.
所以,如果你喜欢这个内容,正在参与其中,已经成为我们生活的一部分,并且看过Brendan的技术分析,那你一定想参加他的六周课程——每周两次,与Brendan实时互动,全面学习技术分析、图表以及他精通的所有内容。
So if this is something that you enjoy, if you're going through this, you've been a part of our lives and you see some of Brendan's technical analysis, know, if if you want that six week course where you get to do it with him two times a week live with Brendan in the six week course to learn all about the technicals and the charts and you know, everything that he is an expert in.
我已经把链接放在下面了。
I threw the link down there.
这个班级本周末仅限开放。
The cohort is open just this weekend.
如果你感兴趣,赶紧去看看吧。
So check it out if you're interested.
不过,Brendan,交给你了。
But Brendan, take it away.
另外,如果有人有股票代码,我们最后再一起看。
And again, if anybody has any tickers, can get to those at the end.
所以把它们发出来吧。
So toss them in.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道,对比特币来说,关键问题是:我们还能再低多少?接下来会发生什么?
You know, the the name of the game for Bitcoin is can we go lower, and what is happening next?
这是我们创下的历史新高,之后我们一直下跌、盘整、再下跌、再盘整、再下跌。
And, you know, this is the all time high that we put in, and we've kind of just moved down, consolidate, move down, consolidate, move down.
大幅盘整,大幅下跌,现在我们又在盘整了。
Big consolidation, big move down, and now we're just consolidating again.
现在有一点不同。
Now there's a little bit of a difference.
在之前的许多次盘整中,你可以看到下跌后盘整上行。
With a lot of these prior consolidations, you can kinda see move down, consolidate up.
下跌,然后盘整上行。
Move down, consolidate up.
下跌,然后向上盘整。
Move down, consolidate up.
下跌,而现在我们正在这里向下盘整。
Move down, and now we're consolidating downwards here.
历史上,当你看到下跌后出现向上盘整时,这被称为看跌旗形,通常意味着下行趋势会继续。
Now historically, when you see a move down followed by upwards consolidation, it's called a bear flag, which typically means that there's continuation to the downside.
这有点不同,因为比特币正在从这个区域或这个区域反弹,然后出现轻微的向下盘整。
This is a little bit different where you're getting Bitcoin bouncing from this area or bouncing from this area and then seeing a little bit of downwards consolidation.
所以,当前发生的情况出现了一点变化和转变。
So little bit of a change and shift in what's happening.
我认为正因如此,我们必须以不同于以往的方式来看待这个问题,因为到目前为止,它并不像典型的看跌旗形。
And I think because of that, we have to start looking at this slightly different than we have before because it doesn't look like your average bear flag so far.
事实上,下降通道通常与看涨旗形相关联。
In fact, falling channels are usually associated with bull flags.
这里的唯一区别是,你并没有看到我们通常所说的大幅回调。
The only difference here is that you don't have quite a big pull as we would call it.
牛市回撤后跟着一个牛市旗形。
A bull pull followed by a bull flag.
这看起来还是挺奇怪的。
This still looks pretty funky.
实际上,当它试图突破这个通道的上沿时,我非常兴奋地打算做多加密货币。
Now I was actually really excited to go long crypto here as it was trying to break out through the top of this channel.
你看到它试图突破这个通道的上沿,就在那条20日均线之上。
You saw it trying to get through the top of this channel above that twenty day moving average.
我正等着蜡烛线收盘,但并没有发生。
I was waiting for the candle close to happen, and we didn't get it.
就在本周早些时候,这对我来说是个很大的失望时刻。
It was a big letdown moment for me just a little bit earlier this week.
因为如果我们能收盘在20日均线之上,我就会非常倾向于做多,并且会考虑比特币反弹至8万到8.5万美元的可能性。
Because if we could have closed above this twenty day moving average, then I would have actually been really open to longs, and I would have been open towards the idea of Bitcoin pushing back to 80 to $85,000.
这里的不同之处在于,我们又一路回落,并且收盘价正好在20日均线附近,甚至低于它。
The difference here is that we came all the way back down and closed right at, if not beneath, the twenty day moving average.
第二天,我们被拒绝了。
Then the next day, we rejected.
而今天,我们再次被拒绝了。
And then again, today, we're rejecting again.
所以连续多天都在这里被拒绝,我们在比特币上已经看到这种现象一段时间了。
So multiple days of rejecting this, and we've seen that for a while now on Bitcoin.
对吧?
Right?
我们一次次地涨到这个区域然后被拒绝,再涨上来又被拒绝,一次又一次地被拒绝。
We've kind of come up to this area and rejected, and then come up and rejected, and come up and rejected again and again and again.
现在我们又在这里重复着同样的情况。
And we're doing it, you know, again once again over in here.
所以我看着这个,心想:嘿。
So I'm looking at this and saying, hey.
我们持续被20日均线拒绝,这仍然不是一个好迹象,而20日均线是我常用的20日、50日和200日均线中最短也最弱的一条。
It's still not a good sign that we continue to reject the twenty day moving average, which is the smallest and weakest of the ones that I like to use between the twenty, the fifty, and the two hundred day moving averages.
我看着这个,看到价格被拒绝,当它再次回落时,我承认,你本希望看到这里出现突破,但现在却是突破失败,价格正回落下来。
And I'm looking at this, seeing the rejection, and, you know, as it's coming back down in here, just acknowledging that, you know, you would have really liked to see a breakout here, but you have the failed breakout as it's bleeding back down.
所以我认为,在我们真正突破这条阻力线、重新交易并站上二十日均线之前,市场仍处于观望状态。
So I think we're in limbo until we really do break out from this resistance line, start trading back above this two or excuse me, the twenty day moving average.
我非常希望看到我们突破7万美元并收于其上方,我认为这会让我们处于一个有利的位置。
And I'd really like to see us conquer 70,000 and close-up there, and I think it puts us in a good spot.
在那之前,你知道,我们仍处于轻微的下行趋势中。
Until that happens, you know, we are in a bit of a downtrend.
正如我所说,我们正看到一些结构性差异,目前呈现的是一个向下的通道整理,而不是先出现一波飙升式整理再继续下行。
As I did say, we are seeing a bit of structural differences where we're seeing kind of a channel down of consolidation as opposed to a spike up in consolidation followed by more downside.
所以,这里的情况正在发生变化。
So again, things are changing here.
看起来确实有什么事情正在发生,但现在说‘这是底部吗?’还为时过早。
It looks like something is certainly happening, but it's too early to probably say, you know, oh, is this the bottom?
这究竟是一个全面的反转时刻吗?
Is it, you know, a full on reversal moment?
再说一遍,现在说这个还为时过早。
Again, I think it's too early to say.
再说一遍,有些地方不一样了,情况正在变化,但你仍然面临失败的突破,而且整体趋势仍然是下行的,这一点我们看得清清楚楚。
Again, something's different, something is changing, but you still have the failed breakout, and you still have an overall downtrend as we can see.
所以,尽管有些犹豫,我仍然认为新低点是一个切实可能的情况。
So, you know, somewhat hesitant, I would still say the idea of new lows is a real possibility.
你看到了很多迹象,我们之前也多次讨论过,这些迹象都在说:嘿。
You're seeing a lot of signs, and we've talked about this quite a bit, that is saying, hey.
从历史角度来看,我们正逐渐接近一个过去常常出现反转的阶段。
Historically speaking, you know, we're getting to the point where we historically start seeing the reversal take place.
但这并不意味着现在就必须立即反转,只是说明我们可能正进入一个阶段,需要密切关注反转的信号。
But that doesn't mean that it has to be in rate at this moment, just that we could be entering into that stage where it's saying, hey, you know, we need to really be on the eye or or the lookout for reversal.
我确实相信这一点。
And I actually do believe in that.
我认为我们正进入一个阶段,人们可以开始留意并认为:大概到了该寻找反转信号的时候了。
I think that we're entering into the stage where I think people can start looking and saying, hey, it's probably time to start looking for the reversal.
也许这种情况会在几周后发生。
Maybe that happens in a few weeks.
也许还需要几个月的时间。
Maybe it's a few months away.
但我认为我们现在需要开始密切关注,并观察比特币如何进入这一阶段的早期准备。
But I think we now need to start really be looking at it and seeing Bitcoin prepare the early stages of that.
所以,再次说明,这可能意味着价格还会继续走低,但我非常认同这种观点:嘿。
So again, that could mean lower price action still, but I am very much in that camp of saying, hey.
我想真正关注一些长期机会,即使我们确实会经历更大幅度的下跌——而这仍然是一个可能的情形。
I wanna actually be looking at some long term opportunity here and really just evaluating the market from a long perspective even if we do have a deeper move lower, which is again, something on the table.
不过,总体来看,所有资产都正在走低。
Across the board, though, you know, everything kinda moving lower here.
再次说明,以太坊未能突破20日均线。
Again, Ethereum failed the breakout of the 20.
Solana也未能突破20日均线。
Solana failed the breakout of the 20.
展开剩余字幕(还有 480 条)
你知道,XRP,情况也一样。
You know, XRP, same story.
BNB,情况也一样。
BNB, same story.
这里很多大型币种,我们本周早些时候看到一次大幅上涨时,山寨币表现相当不错。
A lot of the large caps here, something that we saw a little bit earlier in the week on this big move to the upside is that altcoins were rallying quite well.
你看到很多山寨币上涨了百分之十、二十甚至三十,但现在又回吐了大部分涨幅。
You saw a lot of altcoins rally, you know, ten, twenty, 30% to the upside off of some of these moves, and it's giving back a lot of those gains.
我仍然认为有一个最近在播客里提到过的 standout 项目。
I still think a a standout is one that we've had on the pod here recently.
再说一遍,我们提到这个。
Again, you know, we bring this up.
我并不是在故意推广它。
I'm not just trying to shill it.
实际上我自己完全没有持仓,所以我感觉我有点资格稍微推广一下,因为我自己完全没参与。
I actually have no exposure to it, so I feel like I'm allowed to to kind of shill it a little bit because I have zero exposure myself.
但这是Canton。
But it's Canton.
我的意思是,Tivo,你做得很好。
I mean, Tivo, you did a great job.
你让Canton上了节目,还请到了他们的主要支持者之一、大型金库公司TheraMune,这家公司是Canton的坚定支持者。
You got Canton on the pod, and you got their the one of the big backers of them, big treasury company called TheraMune, who's a big supporter of Canton.
你至少一个月前甚至两个月前就请了他们两个人上节目。
You got both of them on the pod, like, what, like a month or two ago at least.
这东西一直表现强劲。
And this thing's been crushing it.
表现非常强劲。
Crushing it.
我的意思是,它不久前刚创下了历史新高。
I mean, it hit all time highs not too long ago.
一直在与它们抗衡,但其他所有资产却持续下跌。
Been contesting them, but that's while everything else continues to fall.
这是少数几个从50日均线反弹的品种之一。
And this is one of the few ones that kind of bounced off the 50.
哎呀。
Oops.
它从50日均线反弹后,又回升到200日均线上方,并且表现得相当稳健。
It bounced off the 50, got back above the 200, and it's holding value decently well.
给制作人蒂博ault点赞。
So shout out to producer Thibault.
蒂博ault,我觉得你那边静音了。
And, Thibault, I think you're muted for us.
我明白了。
I see.
不是。
No.
其实功劳也要归功于团队,因为那些内容之前都出现在我们的通讯里了。
I the credit goes back to the team as well because stuff that, you know, has been in the newsletter.
它一直在社区里传播,你知道,Bryce 和团队经常问我:嘿,你能找找这个人吗?
It's been in the community, you know you know, you Bryce and the team are always kinda asking me like, hey, can you find somebody from this?
你能找找那个人吗?
Can you find somebody from that?
如果你在社区内部,就会通过简报了解到 Canton 网络的动态。
And that was, you know, if you're in the inside the community, you got kind of tipped off on Canton network through the newsletter.
所以如果有人对此感兴趣,下面也有美元试用链接。
So if people are interested in that, you know, there's a dollar trial down below as well.
当然,如果你只是听播客,几周前也有机会接触到它。
And then obviously, if you listen to just the pod, had a chance to to get it a couple weeks ago as well.
在那段时间里,它可能是表现最好的加密货币之一。
Probably one of the best performing cryptos over that time.
还有 Punch the Monkey,我们在这档播客里也提到过它。
That and Punch the Monkey, which we also called on this podcast as well.
我们真是火力全开,说实话。
We're on fire, honestly.
我本来还想说一件事。
I was gonna say one more thing.
哦,还有,接下来几期播客将有一些重量级嘉宾的小小剧透。
Oh, and and a little sneak preview of just some heavy hitters on the podcast coming up too.
我认为Canton Network现在已经正式登陆Robinhood了。
Canton Network is officially available on Robin Hood, I believe Yeah.
从昨天开始。
As of yesterday.
我们节目末尾还会分享一点Robinhood的最新消息,为我下周采访Johan Kerr Bot做铺垫。
And then we have a little Robin Hood news at the end of the show to tee up us, me and you, interviewing Johan Kerr bot next week.
希望这安排别被取消了。
So hopefully that doesn't get canceled.
当然,计划可能会变,但目前来看,下周已经安排好了与Robinhood的访谈。
Obviously, plans can change, but as of now, have Robinhood on the schedule for next week as well.
你知道,如果你是真正的加密原生用户或真正的加密爱好者,你就想参与建设。
So, you know, it's you see this if if you're a true crypto native to true crypto person, you want to build.
最好的项目无论价格如何都在持续建设。
And the best projects are building no matter what the price action.
我认为这是一档一对一的播客,Crypt Nation 团队在这方面做得最好,我们只是不断提醒自己:我们仍在继续建设。
I think that's a one on one podcast and Crypt Nation team follow that better than anybody where we just, know, hey, we're continuing to build.
我们持续邀请最优秀的嘉宾。
We continue to bring on the best guests.
我们持续发掘赢家。
We continue to find winners.
我们无法在我们的拳击猴子上取得进展。
Can't on our punch the monkey.
我们持续采访这个领域中的顶尖人物。
We're continuing to interview top people in the space.
这就是我们所做的事情。
This is what we do.
所以,如果我是听众,值得点个赞并订阅来支持这个播客。
So worth a thumbs up and worth a subscription to support the pod if if if I was a listener.
我们感谢每一位的参与。
We appreciate everybody doing it.
你能调出聊天室里的朋友们吗?我想表达一下对他们的支持。
Could you pull up I just want to show some love to the people that are in the chat.
这两个图表都符合。
Both the charts fits.
只要能来,他一直都在。
He's here all the time when he can be.
他想专门看一下AVAX。
He wants to take a look at AVAX specifically.
然后我们的朋友,我不想把名字念错。
And then our friend, I don't want to pronounce the name wrong.
我觉得是Habish提到了BMNR,这显然与ETH有关,但我们经常在播客里提到它。
I think it was Habish asked for BMNR, which obviously is related to ETH, but we do we do mention it on the pot a lot.
那我们先看这两个,然后再继续。
So let's let's do those two and then we'll move on.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道,我觉得AVAX现在处境挺艰难的。
You know, I think AVAX is in a tough spot, man.
说实话,我个人目前并没有关注它。
You know, they're not one that I'm currently looking at personally.
我觉得还有一些其他山寨币表现得更好、更出色。
I just think that there's some other altcoins there that have just been performing and doing better.
所以目前我真的没有在关注AVAX。
So I'm I'm really not looking at AVAX at the moment.
大概一两年前,我曾经关注过它。
They were one that I was looking at probably about a year, two years ago.
但,是的,这里我甚至有个旧的风险回报图表,当时我设定了一个明确的止损点。
But, yeah, here, I even have a old risk versus reward chart where I had a nice hard stop with this.
我以前确实交易过它。
And I've I I used to trade it.
你知道,我以前持有过,但我已经清仓了。
You know, I used to own it, but I've exited out of my entire position.
你可以看看过去几年的表现,自从上一个周期以来,它一直呈现持续的较低高点。
You can kinda just look at the past several years of performance of just consistent lower highs since the last cycle.
对吧?
Right?
我们
We
差不多见顶了,从那以后就一直下跌。
kind of peaked, and ever since then, it's come down.
低高点,下跌,低高点,下跌,再低高点。
Lower high, come down, lower high, come down, lower high.
现在这东西是不是在为某种空头回补做准备?
Now is this thing probably preparing for some sort of short squeeze?
我觉得它很可能会出现一次。
I think it'll probably have one.
我唯一的想法是,你可能会看到另一个上涨、更低的高点、再上涨、更低的高点、再上涨、更低的高点的走势。
My only thought is that you'll probably just see another kind of move up, lower high, move up, lower high, move up, lower high.
你在这里可能会看到一次上涨。
You can probably have a move up here.
但我唯一担心的是,这可能只是另一个更低的高点,随后继续下行。
But my only fear is that it could very well just be another lower high into more downside.
所以,我并不是说这完全没有上涨空间,但过去四五年里,它的趋势非常清晰:每次反弹都比前一次低。自2021年和2022年以来,你一直能看到这种模式。
So again, I'm not saying that this has no upside, but it has a pretty clear trend over the last four years, four or five years, of just every rally being lower than the prior And you see a lot of this since 2021 and 2022.
因此,我会从AVACS的角度来观察这一点。
So I I would be looking at that from AVACS.
而且,即便从当前价格来看,这可能仍然意味着——嘿。
And, again, you know, even from its current price, that could still mean, you know, hey.
也许这个东西会暴涨200%。
Maybe this thing rallies a 200%.
但再次强调,我仍然会保持谨慎,因为我们知道它有这种更低高点的历史。
Again, I would still be just cautious that we know that it has this history of lower highs.
所以我的担忧是,这种情况还会继续下去。
So my fear would be you just see more of the same with this.
所以,你知道,这绝对不是一个死项目,也不是一个糟糕的项目。
So, you know, again, not like a dead project by any means, not like a horrible one.
但就价格表现而言,这是我需要警惕的,因为趋势非常明显。
But just in terms of price performance, that is something I would want to watch out for because the trend is is very clear there.
所以我会想降低预期,你知道,当有人跑来跟你说,嘿。
So I would wanna temper expectations, you know, for someone coming out to you and saying, hey.
你知道,这东西可能涨十倍或二十倍。
You know, this thing could 10 x or 20 x.
我会对此更加谨慎,并说,你知道,过去四到五年趋势一直是下行的。
I'd be much more hesitant of that and say, you know, the trend has been down for about four to five years.
从保守的角度来看,我认为必须考虑出现更低高点的可能性。
And on a conservative side, I think you'd have to look at, you know, a lower high is a real possibility.
我们还看到什么?
What else we got?
是的
Yeah.
至少是BMNR吗?
At least a BMNR?
是的
Yeah.
我们来谈谈比特大陆吧。
Let's do Bitmain.
最后一个,然后我们继续。
Last one, and then we'll move on.
是的
Yeah.
其实,我对比特大陆有些矛盾。
So I actually, you know, I'm torn on Bitmain.
我喜欢汤姆·李。
I like Tom Lee.
我喜欢以太坊。
I like Ethereum.
你喜欢MrBeast吗?
Do you like mister beast?
是的。
Yeah.
你知道,他们做的某些事情让我有点困惑,我真希望他们能更积极地在当前价格买入以太坊,获取更多以太坊。
You know, some of the stuff they do confuses me a little bit, and I do wish that they would be more aggressive about buying Ethereum and getting their hands on more Ethereum at these prices.
所以有一部分我对此有点担心。
So part of me is kind of concerned with that.
你知道,他们本来可以投入多少来着?
You know, they could have put they what was that?
他们不是在MrBeast上投了5亿吗?
They did 500,000,000 in the MrBeast or something?
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
他们获得了 Beast Industries 的一部分。
They they got a piece of the Beast Industries.
是的。
Yeah.
他们获得了 Beast Industries 的一部分,我认为这是提高投资回报的绝佳主意。
They got a piece of Beast Industries, which I think is a a super great idea for return on investment.
但看到以太坊价格大幅下跌,同时却有 5 亿美元的资金可供支配,这看起来有些奇怪。
But it's a strange look to see Ethereum down so much and then having $500,000,000 of capital to spend.
作为以太坊国库,他们可能会说:嘿。
And as an Ethereum treasury, they're gonna say, hey.
我们实际上不会把这些资金投入以太坊。
We're actually not gonna put this money in Ethereum.
所以看到以太坊价格暴跌,他们却主动把资金投向其他地方,这显得有点不太妥当。
So I think it's a little bit of a bad look to see it fall so much and then willingly put their money into other places.
这看起来有点不太好。
It's it's a little bit of a bad look.
我喜欢BMR。
And I like BMR.
BMR。
BMR.
我喜欢汤姆·李。
I like Tom Lee.
我自己实际上持有一些股份。
I actually own some shares of this myself.
我没有过度暴露,但我确实持有一些。
I don't have crazy exposure, but I I have some to it.
我认为看待这种方式的方式是,我把它看作是以太坊的杠杆版本。
And I think that the way that you can look at this is I view it as almost like a leveraged version of Ethereum.
如果以太坊下跌,这个会经历更大的下行波动。
If Ethereum's coming down, this is gonna see more volatility to the downside.
如果以太坊上涨,你会看到上行波动性加大。
If Ethereum is rallying up, you're gonna see more volatility to the upside.
所以只要市场走低,我觉得这个东西会被反复打压。
So as long as the market is heading to the downside, I think this thing is gonna get peppered.
一旦市场反转并开始回升,你可能会看到这个东西彻底起飞。
The moment that the market reverses and starts heading back to the upside, you're probably gonna see this thing absolutely take off.
就在前几天,当以太坊伴随着比特币的Chain Street新闻上涨时,你就看到了这种情况。
And you saw that just the other day when Ethereum rallied with, you know, Bitcoin on that Chain Street news.
BMNR在两天内飙升了近20%,而同一时期,以太坊从高点到低点的涨幅实际上也差不多。
BMNR rallied almost 20% to the upside in two days, whereas Ethereum during the same time frame, you know, rallied from top to bottom, you know, actually almost the same.
所以也许这个类比并不恰当。
So maybe that's not a great analogy.
以太坊在这两天的上涨中也上涨了约18%。
Ethereum rallied about 18% as well off of that same two day rally.
所以我认为我同意。
So I think I agree
我同意你的观点,布伦丹。
I agree with you, Brendan.
我觉得这个观点值得记下来,留到下一轮上涨时再看。
I think that's a that's a one I wanna put a pin in and save for the next rally.
我完全同意你的看法。
I I totally agree with you.
为了让观众更好地理解,因为他们来这里是为了获取信息。
Just so people understand because they do come here for information.
所以我查了一下BitMind的情况。
So BitMind, I just looked it up.
关于BitMind的潜力股,正如你所说,它并不一定是一个真正的国库,因为他们对资金的使用方式有些不同。
The BitMind moonshots, like you said, it's like, hey, it's not necessarily a true treasury because they're doing some different things with the money.
他们有2亿投入了Beast Industries。
It's 200,000,000 in Beast Industries.
我看到还有八家联合方:Octo和Worldcoin。
It was, I see eight co slash Octo slash Worldcoin.
他们投资了2000万美元在Worldcoin,还有Orbs。
They did $20,000,000 in Worldcoin and then Orbs.
Orbs和丹·艾维斯,给那些喜欢看商业新闻的人。
Orbs and Dan Ives for those who like to watch the business news.
丹·艾维斯总是穿着各种颜色鲜艳的夹克到处跑,他是这家大科技投资公司的巨头,但我一时想不起公司名字了。
Dan Ives always runs around with all the fun different colored jackets, huge tech investor for man, the firm he works for is slipping me off the top of my head.
但他也是Orbs的董事长,所以他们向Orbs投入了2500万美元。
But or he's the chairman of Orbs and so they did 25,000,000 into Orbs.
所以他们在分散投资一些高风险高回报的项目,赌那些他们认为能涨十倍、但也可能彻底失败的项目。
So they're sprinkling some moonshots going for you know, stuff that they believe are 10 x or probably bust.
所以他们在这些项目上撒了一些钱。
So they're sprinkling some money there.
他们的目标是持有以太坊5%的份额。
They're aiming for 5% of Ethereum.
我完全同意你的观点。
And I totally agree with you.
再次强调,这不是任何人的个人财务建议,但在市场下行时,情况会变得更糟,而当牛市重新到来时,我认为Bitmine将会迎来一个高光时刻,原因在于,我认为这与它的 treasury 部分或投资部分无关。
Again, not personal financial advice for anybody, but it's gonna get peppered on the downside worse and then there's gonna be a time when if the bull market turns when it comes back that I would I would say Bitmine is gonna have a moment of and the reason is, I don't think it has anything to do with the treasury part of it or in the investing part of it.
我认为这跟我们之前讨论过的某些股票类似,那些曾经飞涨的股票,比如稳定币IPO和像Robinhood这样的公司,我们之前都提到过。
I think it's kind of what we talked about for some of these, know, stocks that that were flying so high, like the, you know, the stable coin IPOs and the Robinhoods of the world that we called.
会有一些人根本无法直接购买以太坊,因为这不在他们的投资授权范围内,但他们可以购买这些股票,只要符合他们的授权要求,于是就会出现一股抢购这些股票的热潮。
It's it's there's gonna be people that just don't have the ability to go buy Ethereum and and like it's not in their mandate and they can go buy these stocks for whatever their mandate holds and then you just have that kind of rush to get into some of these.
所以我认为这很值得留意。
And so I I think it's worth watching.
这种策略在上一个比特币周期中也是这么做的,对吧?
Same thing that strategy used to do, you know, the cycle before Bitcoin, right?
那时候我们说,无法直接获得比特币的敞口,那就买Strategy吧。
It was, you know, we can't get any exposure to Bitcoin itself, so we'll buy strategy.
然后,比特币在资产负债表上的净资产价值一度达到2比1。
And then, you know, the NAV went two to one for the Bitcoin on the balance sheet.
现在这种情况又回来了。
Now that's come back in.
所以这是值得关注的,我觉得会很有趣。
So something to watch, and I think it's gonna be fun.
我觉得会很有趣。
I think it'll be fun.
汤姆·李确实吃了不少苦头。
Tom Lee's definitely took his medicine.
对吧?
Right?
我们做过一期节目,他上电视,到处接受采访,不得不承受压力。
We had an episode where he went on TV and, you know, he had to do the rounds and, you know, take it take it on the chin.
我觉得,当市场反弹时,再看到他得意地巡游一圈,一定会很有趣。
Would be fun to see him have a a victory lap once again when when the market turns around, I think.
我刚看到,Havish说,汤姆·李知道汤姆·李知道的东西。
I just saw I think it's Havish says, Tom Lee knows what Tom Lee knows.
好吧,让我们离开图表,转到大银行的话题。
Well, let's let's transition out of the charts with let's go to big banks.
我的意思是,这仍然是一个由叙事驱动的加密市场,大家都在说,所有采用的基本面都在持续不断。
I mean, again, it's the narrative driven, you know, crypto market where it's, hey, the fundamentals of all the adoption is just nonstop.
我们认为是看涨的,但价格走势却没有跟上,这种情况还在继续。
What we would think is bullish and the price action hasn't followed and that continues.
我这里有两个片段。
I got two clips here.
它们有点长。
They are a little long.
我先放第一个,是花旗银行的。
The first one I'll do is Citi.
花旗银行表示,他们的目标是让比特币变得可银行化。
So Citibank wants to make quote, their quote was they wanna make Bitcoin bankable.
我们先听一会儿花旗银行的发言,然后再转到下一个。
So let's listen to Citi for a minute and then we'll transition to the next one.
是的。
So yes.
当我们进入比特币这样的24/7资产世界时,我们确实需要这个24/7的美元数字货币。
As we move into the world of twenty four seven assets like Bitcoin, we definitely need this $24.07 US dollar for twenty four seven digital money.
而且,随着我们所有的系统和流程也在升级为24/7支持,这一点绝对不可或缺。
And while all our systems and processes are also being uplifted into twenty four seven support, like, absolutely need that.
所以某种程度上,我们又回到了城市永不眠的世界。
So in some sense, we are back to the world of city never streets.
因此,这是让比特币变得可银行化的一个核心理念。
So this is the one big idea to make Bitcoin bankable.
今年晚些时候,花旗将推出将比特币整合进传统金融的基础设施。
Later this year, Citi will be launching our infrastructure that integrates Bitcoin into traditional finance.
我们将从核心托管和安全保管功能开始,提供机构级的密钥管理和钱包基础设施。
We're gonna start with core custody and safekeeping capabilities, institutional grade, key management, and wallet infrastructure.
那么,究竟什么是让比特币变得可银行化呢?
So what does it actually mean to make Bitcoin bankable?
所以,这里最重要的观点是,花旗正在努力让比特币变得可银行化。
So the big the big quote there's cities working to make Bitcoin bankable.
然后我可以滑到这一个。
And then I can scroll over to this one.
我们有摩根士丹利在台上谈论他们计划提供比特币交易、借贷、收益和托管服务。
We have Morgan Stanley on stage talking about confirms how Morgan Stanley is offering to plan to offer Bitcoin trading lending yield and custody.
让我们听听摩根士丹利怎么说。
So let's listen to Morgan Stanley.
我认为在未来一年的某个时候,你们实际上会推出原生的托管和交易平台,我对此非常期待。
And I think later on at some point in time in the next year, you're actually going to build out a native custody and exchange which I'm pretty excited about.
你们可能会成为首家提供这项服务的大型银行。
You'll potentially be the first major bank to offer that.
为什么这一部分很重要?
Why is that piece important?
你在考虑什么?
What are you thinking about?
比如,这在战略上如何契合?
Like, how does that strategically fit?
是的
Yeah.
我认为这是我们真正需要内部构建的自然延伸。
Think it's a natural we really need to build this out internally.
我们不能仅仅依赖租用技术来实现这一点。
We can't just primarily rent the the technology to do this.
人们期待摩根士丹利,信任我们的品牌,能够做到万无一失。
People expect Morgan Stanley, they trust our brand, to be no fail.
当你处于这样的位置时,你对客户负有重大责任,必须确保在任何技术层面都提供这种保障。
And when you sit in that position, you have a significant responsibility to your clients to make sure that you're delivering that in any level of technology.
所以我认为这是我们想要做的一件事。
So I think that's one of the things that we wanna do.
当你知道自己托管资产时,所处的环境是完全不同的。
It's it's a totally different environment to know that you are custodying your assets.
你与摩根士丹利有法律上的托管关系,摩根士丹利会为你监管这些资产。
You have legal custody with Morgan Stanley, and Morgan Stanley is overseeing those assets for you.
总有一些人希望自行保管资产。
There's always those that are gonna wanna self custody.
这是这个领域很自然的一部分,尤其是在比特币领域。
That's a natural part of the space, especially in the Bitcoin space.
我想对于在座一些可能不了解我背景的人,我在进入数字资产战略领域之前,过去十三年一直负责我们的新兴市场投资业务,而且我一直
I think for some of you in the room that may not know my background, prior to being in the digital asset strategy space, I ran our emerging market investing business for the last thirteen years and I've been
所以我就先停在这里,因为我觉得她将自己从新兴市场进入数字资产领域的经验进行对比,这一点很有意思。
So I'm pausing it there because I think it's interesting that she compares her experience to going into digital assets from the emerging markets.
新兴市场是正在崛起的、新兴的、充满前瞻性的领域。
Emerging markets are up and coming, what's new, where's the puck going type of action.
所以当你看到花旗、MicroStrategy,还有抱歉,摩根士丹利的时候。
And so that's, think it's when you have Citi, MicroStrategy and then I'm sorry, Morgan Stanley.
在我交棒给你之前,布伦丹,最后这张幻灯片只是总结了我们在过去几个月播客中讨论的内容:这些人都在建设中。
And then this last slide before I hand it off to you, Brendan is just like the summary of this is what we've talked about over the last, you know, couple months on the podcast is these people are building.
我认为重要的是要指出,我们并不是说你们必须去开一个高盛、摩根大通或富国银行的账户,然后把你的加密货币转过去。
And I think it's always important to note like, hey, we're not saying you need to go open up a Goldman Sachs, you know, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo account and move your crypto there.
你知道,你始终有权自行保管,这正是这件事的美妙之处。
You know, you always have the right to self custody and that's the beauty of this thing.
但这些是拥有全部资本的公司,它们才是真正掌控世界并为这些事物构建基础设施的人。
But these are the people, these are the companies that have all the capital that truly like, you know, kind of run the world and they're building infrastructure for this stuff.
她说,摩根士丹利的那位女士说出了最重要的观点。
And she said the the Morgan Stanley's lady said the most important thing.
我们不能一直租用这种东西。
It's like we can't continue to rent this.
我们必须自己建造。
We have to build our own.
为什么?
And why?
如果你认为它会消失,这只是一时风潮,那你就会一直租用,直到它结束再放弃。
Well, if you didn't if you thought it was going away and this was just a fad, you would rent until it's over and then you get rid of it.
对吧?
Right?
他们想自己建造。
They wanna build.
他们想建造基础设施。
They wanna build the infrastructure.
他们想内部建造。
They wanna build it in house.
所以很难不坐在这里想:这些在过去五十多年里基本主导了现代世界的公司,现在都在这个领域投入建设。
And so it's hard not to sit here and be like, all right, all these companies that have, you know, basically run the modern world for the last fifty plus years is is building in this space.
我觉得我站对了位置,尽管最近的价格走势可能没站在我这边。
I feel like I'm in the right spot even though maybe the price action recently hasn't gone my way.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为这反映了他们长期的立场。
I do think it's telling of their long term stance.
如果你只想做短期的事,那就租用。
The idea is if you wanna do anything for short term, you run.
如果你想做长期的事,你就买入。
If you wanna do anything thing for long term, you buy.
这正好印证了这一点。
And that just backs it up.
这个图表不错,Tivo。
And this is a good graphic, Tivo.
我的意思是,它展示了高盛、摩根士丹利、花旗、美国银行、富国银行和摩根大通。
I mean, shows Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citi, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan.
显然,不止这六家,但它们是六大巨头。
Obviously, there's more than just these, but it was like the big six.
如果你往下滚动,它会大致告诉你每家公司在这个领域正在做什么,非常基础的层面。
And if you scroll down, it actually gives you a little bit of a breakdown of what each one of these is doing at a very high level, at a very basic level.
但你可以往下滚动,看到花旗在做什么,摩根士丹利在做什么,以及其他各家正在做什么。
But you can scroll down and you can see, oh, this is what Citi is doing, and this is what Morgan Stanley is doing, and this is what all the the different ones are are working on over there.
所以,我认为你必须感到兴奋。
So again, I think you gotta be excited.
有疑问时,就退后一步看。
When in doubt, zoom out.
对吧?
Right?
这句话我们好久没提过了,但我觉得现在是时候回头问问:我们到底在哪?
That's a saying that we haven't said in a while over here, but I think it's an appropriate time to go back and say, hey, know, where are we?
你看,我们现在正处于一个大低谷。
Know, we're at a big dip.
所有这些事情都在发生。
All this stuff's happening.
我一直经常说,技术面和基本面某种程度上脱节了。
I've been a routine sayer of, I think, that the technicals are somewhat disconnected from the fundamentals.
我认为,鉴于我们看到的一些情况,加密货币应该会出现回调。
I think due to some of the stuff that we've seen, I think crypto should have a retracement.
但它是否应该出现像我们所见那样大的回调呢?
Should it have had as large of a one that we've seen?
大概不会。
Probably not.
我认为这就是脱节的原因。
And I think that that's where the disconnection comes.
他们说,卖出一部分可能是对的,但我认为下跌到这种程度并不合理,尤其是在比特币之外。
They're saying, I think it was right to sell off some, but I don't think it's been right to see the this kind of extent to the downside, especially outside of Bitcoin.
对吧?
Right?
一旦脱离比特币,进入其他山寨币,真正受到重创的就是这些。
You get outside of Bitcoin in the alts, and that's what's really been hit.
我们得看看。
And we'll have to see.
对吧?
Right?
我们得看看。
We'll have to see.
但我认为,总体而言,加密货币作为一个整体行业可能受到了比应有程度更严重的打击,这反而创造了机会。
But I think that overall, crypto as an entire industry has probably been hit harder than it should have been, which creates opportunity.
是的。
Yep.
我完全同意。
Couldn't agree more.
我们走着瞧吧。
Let's see.
接下来聊聊今天最值得关注的动态。
Moving on to the read the room of the day.
Vitalik,你得看看形势啊,兄弟。
Vitalik, read the room, bro.
Vitalik卖出了4,325枚ETH,约合800万美元,这大约只是他持仓的不到2%。
Vitalik selling 4,325 ETH for about $8,000,000 So that that's that's basically just under 2% of his holdings.
我帮大家算好了,你们就不必自己算了。
I did the math for everybody so you don't have to.
算下来,他卖出了2%的以太坊持仓,套现800万美元。
It comes out to he sold 2% of his Ethereum bags for 8,000,000.
我只是觉得,这个节目就是关于传递新闻的,我觉得这件事大家应该知道。
I I just I think this this show is all about bringing the news and I think this is something that you know, I think the people should know about.
你当然不希望看到这种情况,但当只是卖出2%这么小的比例时,其实是为了筹集一点资金,可能再去买入其他资产。
You don't love to see it but also when it's that little like the 2% mark, you know, raising a little capital to go probably buy this maybe.
总有个搞笑的梗说Vitalik有了新女友或者在约会什么的。
There's always that funny meme that Vitalik has a new girlfriend or is dating somebody, so he's going out on dates.
你知道的,拿一点现金没什么不对,尤其是只占你持仓这么低的比例时。
You know, there's there's nothing wrong with with getting a little cash, especially when it's that low of percentage of your holdings.
但老天,你得看场合啊。
But, man, read the room.
是的。
Yeah.
这条推文让我笑疯了。
This tweet had me cracking.
我喜欢这条推文,Tivo。
I love this tweet, Tivo.
这太逗了。
This is goaded.
我看到这条时笑得不行,但你说得对。
I saw this and I was cracking up, but you're right.
我的意思是,看看场合吧。
I mean, read the room.
我永远不明白为什么这些不同的人或团体要这么做。
I'll never understand why these different people or groups do this.
几周前我们刚聊过一个类似的,当时就说:看看场合吧。
We were talking about one just a few weeks ago, and it was like, read the room.
你知道的。
You know?
哦,这么多糟心事都在发生。
Oh, all this bad stuff's happening.
哦,我要卖出股票。
Oh, I'm gonna sell shares.
哦,这么多坏事都在发生。
Oh, all this bad stuff's happening.
我要卖出以太坊。
I'm gonna sell ETH.
看到这些事情,感觉不太好。
It's not a good look to kind of see this stuff.
这就像,你所在的公司和你投资的公司接连爆出大量负面新闻,而你作为高管却在大量抛售股票。
It would be like, oh, there's a lot of bad news about the company that you're invest that you work for and you're invested in, and you're the executive, and you're selling massive amounts of shares.
这看起来可不太妙。
It'd be like, not a good look.
看清楚形势,兄弟。
Read the room, bro.
这其实是一回事。
And this is the same thing.
对吧?
Right?
他是以太坊的创始人,而以太坊目前表现不佳。
He's the founder of Ethereum, and Ethereum's not doing great.
然后他就说,好吧。
And he's like, alright.
我要开始套现了,不管出于什么原因。
I'm gonna start cashing out for whatever reason.
这又回到了一个问题:你看看很多构建者,其实大多数人都没这么做,但因为他所处的平台,所有人都被牵连得形象受损。
It just goes back, and it that's the frustrating thing here is that you look at a lot of the builders, and most of them aren't doing this, but it gives everyone a bad look because of the platform that he's on.
总是那些在最大平台上的人。
And it's always the people that are on, like, the biggest platforms.
也不总是这样,但你知道我的意思。
Not always, but you know what I mean.
我只是有点沮丧。
It's just I get I get a little frustrated.
但你确实有一些拥有巨大平台的人,大家都仰望着他们,说:你看,他们这么做,尽管很可能99%的其他加密货币创始人并没有抛售数百万美元的以太坊或其原生代币。
But you have people who do have a massive platform, and then everyone looks up at them and says, well, you know, they're doing this even though probably 99% of other crypto founders aren't selling off millions of dollars worth of Ethereum or their native tokens.
你有Vitalik,这又回到了之前的观点,Tivo。
You have, you know, Vitalik, which is which, again, goes back to the point, Tivo.
察言观色。
Read the room.
时机和场合很重要。
There's a time and place.
嗯,我不确定那是什么。
Well, don't know what it is.
而反过来说,情况是这样的。
And the counterpoint the counterpoint is this.
察言观色挺有意思的。
It's it's fun to read the room.
而且,同样地,这并不是高比例的现象。
And, again, it's not a high percentage.
反方观点是,如果我们正处于历史高点并疯狂抛售,而Vitalik开始套现,所有人都会跟着跑路。
The counterpoint is if we're ripping and we're at all time highs and then Vitalik starts unloading, everybody's gonna run to the exits with them too.
所以,如果你正处于价格发现阶段,一旦Vitalik或你的最大持币者开始抛售资产,这种势头很快就会被掐灭。
So, you know, if you're in a price discovery mode, you could snuff out that fire real quick with, you know, Vitalik or your top holder starts liquidating funds, you know.
这种现象在股票市场中屡见不鲜。
You see that all the time in stocks.
我们前几天讨论的是Coinbase,Brian Armstrong申请出售大量股份。
We were you know who we were going on the other day was Coinbase, Brian Armstrong filed to sell sell a bunch of shares.
我们当时就想,老兄,你明明在华盛顿到处跑。
And we're just like, dude, you're running around DC.
是的。
Yes.
这是未来,你到处接受采访,说Coinbase是未来,加密货币是未来,可你却在抛售自己的股份。
It's the future and you're doing all these press hits and you know, Coinbase is the future, crypto is the future and you're selling your shares.
你知道,他当然还持有大量股份,但道理是一样的。
It's like, you know, obviously he still has a ton, but it's the same concept.
但情况也可能反过来。
Then, but it would go the other way too.
比如,想想Robin Hood。
Like, think let's pull Robin Hood, for example.
我觉得Vlad申请的时间点选得挺好的。
I think like Vlad filed I think he timed it pretty well.
我记得是在夏天,Vlad申请出售了一些股份,数量在几百股左右。
I think was like over the summer, Vlad filed to sell some shares, you know, in the hundreds.
是的。
And Yeah.
你知道,这始终只占很小的比例,因为你不可能把全部股份一下子抛售给所有人。
You know, again, was a small it's always a small percentage because you can't, you know, dump your whole shares on everybody.
尤其是在股票市场,这类操作有严格的申报规定。
There's especially in the stock market, there's rules of filing that type of stuff.
通常,你必须提前几个月——比如一个季度左右——提交申报。
And usually, you have to file it, I think months, like a quarter or so in advance.
对吧?
Right?
不过我觉得这很有道理。
And I think that makes sense though.
对我来说,这很公平。
Like, to me, that's fair.
你知道吗,他们的股价不是从30美元涨到了130美元左右,简直疯狂?
You know, what did their stock rally from 30 to a $130 or something crazy?
而且股价一路飙升,打破纪录。
And it's like up there, shattering records.
然后他说,好吧。
And he's like, okay.
我要为我的劳动成果兑现一些利润。
I'm gonna take some profits for the fruits of my labor.
但这感觉完全相反,你知道,嘿。
This just feels like the opposite where, you know, hey.
这个资产的价值直接缩水了百分之几百。
The asset just depreciated a couple 100%.
我要先把自己投进去的钱拿回来。
I'm going to pay myself back.
我想每个人都同意,说真的。
I think everyone would agree and say, hey.
嗯哼。
Mhmm.
当然了,老兄,你赚了就该好好犒劳自己。
By all means, dude, pay yourself some great work.
我们都在赚钱。
We're all profiting.
这里的不同在于,像布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗和维塔利克这样的人,就让人更觉得有点沮丧。
The difference here is that with, like, Brian Armstrong and and Vitalik, it's a little bit more frustrating.
对吧?
Right?
对于从外部观察的散户持有者来说,这稍微更让人沮丧一些,他们会想:你嘴里说着这么宏大的计划。
It's a little bit more frustrating for the retail holder looking from the outside in, saying, oh, you're talking all this big game.
你做了这么多其他事情,却偏偏在价格低的时候抛售大量股份,这就更让人沮丧了。
You're doing all these other things, and then you're selling off a bunch of shares and especially when it's low, and it just gets a little bit more frustrating.
我们也不要对Vitalik太过苛责了,他当然是节目的朋友。
And let's not pile on too much Vitalik, friend of the show, of course.
他随时都欢迎回来。
He's welcome on anytime.
他仍在持续建设。
He's still building.
我认为以太坊社区令人兴奋的地方在于,你不想看到他抛售,但你确实喜欢他参与其中。
This is what's exciting, I think, about the Ethereum community is you don't wanna see him sell, but you do love when he's involved.
你确实喜欢他谈论路线图的时候。
You do love when he's talking about the road map.
至少在那些高知名度的项目中,他某种程度上引领着量子抗性这一方向。
And kind of in a way leading the charge at least from the high profile projects of Quantum Resistance.
对吧?
Right?
他们的路线图中也谈到了很多其他事情。
It's been a lot of talk in their road map with a lot of other things too.
我的意思是,这条推文是经过深思熟虑的,还附上了链接,你知道的,如果你想访问网站,但对我来说,量子抗性真的是最重要的吗?
I mean, this is a this is a thought out tweet along with a link to, you know, if you want to go to the website, but was there anything that the quantum resistance was the number one thing for me?
因为作为社交媒体从业者,我在这次市场低迷期间看到的全是这些,还有我们之前讨论过的软件交易。
Because again, as the social media guy, I it's all I've seen in this downturn along with the software trade that we've talked about as well.
所有讨论都围绕着人工智能、量子技术和以太坊开始融入路线图展开。
It's all been around AI, Quantum, and ETH is starting to build into the road map.
你有没有注意到其他特别突出的地方?
Did is there anything else that stuck out to you?
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我会更加坚定地说,你说得对。
I would double down and just say, you're right.
你显然对现在这个时间点全部抛售感到不满,但我同意他很多观点。
You're like, obviously, I'm not happy with, like, the whole selling at this time part, but I agree with him on a lot.
他关于以太坊主网和二层网络的整个论述,我几乎全部同意。
His whole talk about the state of Ethereum main net and layer twos, I agree with almost all of that.
这一点我也觉得非常好。
This as well, I think it's great.
我认为他知道自己在做什么,也知道自己在谈什么。
I think he's he he knows what he's doing, and he knows what he's talking about.
我也非常支持这一点。
I'm a huge supporter of this as well.
量子安全必须做,这样才能让人安心。
The quantum stuff needs to be done for peace of mind.
对吧?
Right?
人们希望看到这一点,而他正在做Exactly需要做的事情。
People want to see this, and he's doing exactly what needs to be done.
他还在说,嘿。
He's also saying, hey.
让我们来看看一些隐私功能、数据可用性以及其他方面。
Let's look at some privacy features and data availability and other things.
同样,我认为这正是人们真正想要的。
Again, this is, I think, what people really want.
对吧?
Right?
这基本上就是Canton一直在做的事,致力于各种隐私形式,而且效果相当不错。
That's what Canton's kinda been up to, working with different forms of privacy, and it's been pretty effective.
所以,再次我认为,他在这个时候做出了正确的决定。
So, again, I think right move at the right time here from him.
而这在很大程度上正是整个路线图的方向。
And that's largely what the whole direction of the road map is.
我认为支持一下以太坊在L1和L2之间进行轻微重构的想法是有道理的。
I think I support the idea of looking at how Ethereum could be maybe slightly restructured between the l ones and l twos.
我同意关于量子计算的部分。
I agree with the quantum stuff.
我同意一些关于隐私的建议。
I agree with some of the privacy stuff.
我觉得我几乎不会不同意他最近提出的任何观点。
I think I I literally don't think I would disagree with almost anything that he's kind of put forth lately.
所以,这又是朝着我认为正确方向迈出的一步。
So this is another step of what I would view to be the right direction.
因为人们在量子计算方面需要安心感。
Because people want peace of mind when it comes to quantum.
对吧?
Right?
现在每个人的想法都是:哦,AI会让我们更快地迈向量子时代。
Everyone's thought right now is, oh, AI is gonna accelerate us towards quantum faster.
而且我认为,你越快能让人对这一点安心,
And I think the faster that you can give people peace of mind about that, the
越好。
better.
是的。
Mhmm.
我完全同意。
Couldn't agree more.
而且你希望他能参与其中,作为领导者、思想领袖,首先是这一点,但同时也希望你能给我一份路线图,让我知道团队和基金会打算往哪个方向走。
And and that you love to have him kind of in the mix and and, as a leader, as a thought leader, number one, but just kind of give me the roadmap to know where the team and the foundation looks to go.
我觉得这是个重大消息。
I thought this was big news.
这消息一出来,人们就谈论了一分钟,就像喝一杯咖啡的时间。
This came out and people talked about it for about a minute, like one cup of coffee.
他们喝了一杯咖啡。
They had a cup of coffee.
他们谈论了马克·扎克伯格和Meta计划重新推出稳定币。
They talked about how Mark Zuckerberg and Meta are planning a stablecoin comeback.
但随后这件事就渐渐被遗忘了。
And then it just kind of fell away.
我的意思是,他们曾讨论过在Facebook、Instagram上实现支付,但人们并没有意识到全球有多少人使用WhatsApp。
I mean, they were talking about payments across Facebook, Instagram and people don't realize how many people use WhatsApp around the world.
对于我们这些住在美国的人来说,当然有一些人,尤其是商业人士,会使用WhatsApp、Telegram等应用。
For us living in The States, obviously there's some people especially in business that use WhatsApp, Telegram, etc.
但在全球范围内,WhatsApp可以说是全球最受欢迎的应用之一,尤其是在通信方面。
But around the world, WhatsApp is like I think one of the number one apps in the world, especially for communication.
Meta团队看起来正在卷土重来,正在构建稳定币的基础设施。
And the meta team looks like they're coming back, stable coins building the rails.
所以这是一类事情,我在想,我到底想表达什么?
So it's one of those things that I guess, what am I trying to say?
这是一类一旦实施,就能自动被大量用户采纳的事情。
It's one of those things that if implemented automatically adopts a large number of people.
这正是我们多年来在这个频道里讨论过的:真正的加密货币采用,是当人们根本意识不到自己在使用它的时候。
It's what we've talked about for years on this channel of, you know, the true crypto adoption is gonna be when people don't even realize that they're using it.
无需理解的加密货币底层设施。
Crypto rails without understanding.
我认为这正是一个完美的例子。
And I think this is the perfect example of that.
这件事突然冒出来,人们只谈论了短短一杯咖啡的时间,然后就消失了。
And and this this popped up and it was talked about for literally a cup of coffee and then faded away.
你对Meta的稳定币路线图有什么看法吗?
Any any thoughts on on Meta, little stable coin roadmap?
我认为,在市场结构法案通过后,他们获得批准的可能性比以前更大了。
I think that they have a better shot of getting this approved after the market structure bill passes
是的。
Mhmm.
在《清晰法案》通过后,他们的机会也比以前更大了。
After the Clarity Act too than they did before.
在Libra项目被迅速否决之前,我认为现在他们成功的机会大得多。
Before the whole Libra thing was shot down, you know, fairly fast, I think now they have a much better chance at it.
这再次印证了这样一个观点:每个人都想参与稳定币。
And this just goes back to the idea of, like, everyone wants to be in on stablecoins.
你知道,银行、科技公司、社交媒体,所有人都想进入稳定币领域。
You know, banks, tech companies, social media, everybody wants to get into the stablecoin game.
对我来说,TiVo(注:此处可能为口误,应指代前文内容)所做的,正是证明了洪水闸门背后积压着天文数字般的流动性。
And to me, TiVo, what this does is this backs the idea of the floodgates are holding back an astronomical amount of liquidity.
一旦我们开始通过相关立法并理清所有监管规定,这些闸门就会开始缓缓打开。
And the moment that we start getting that that legislation passed and all those regulations sorted out, that's when the floodgates begin to open up a little bit here.
我认为,你可以开始看到,难以想象的巨大资本正涌入这一领域。
And I think that you can start seeing, again, just unfathomable amounts of capital start pouring into this.
当闸门刚打开时,可能规模还很小,但随着时间推移,闸门越开越大,就会释放出巨大的潜在流动性,而这最终我认为将惠及那些运行这些稳定币或其底层基础设施的平台——无论是以太坊、Solana,还是其他稳定币所依托的底层网络。
And it probably starts small as the gates open, and then as they get bigger and bigger and time goes on, it just unlocks so much potential liquidity, which ultimately, I think benefits the very platforms that are either running these stablecoins, that kind of infrastructure, or the underlying infrastructure that is probably Ethereum or Solana wherever these stablecoins are built on top of as well.
所以,这再次印证了:有大量资本和流动性正试图进入这一领域。
So they, again, just backs the idea that there's a lot of capital and liquidity that's trying to get into these.
他们只是在等待。
They're just waiting.
他们在等待批准。
They're waiting for approval.
是的。
Yep.
是的。
Yep.
这本质上是各个行业对流动性的全面争夺。
And it's it's just a grab for liquidity across the board in any industry.
这正是我们接下来两个快速要点所讨论的内容。
And that's what our next two quick hitters are about.
Coinbase 推出了 24/5 服务。
Coinbase rolling out twenty four five.
这是每周五天、每天24小时的股票交易,零佣金,股票和加密货币共用一个统一投资组合。
That's twenty four seven, five days a week, stock trading zero commission, one unified portfolio for stocks and crypto.
不错的消息。
Cool news.
我的意思是,这其实有点像Robinhood一直以来在做的事,对吧?
I mean, it's kind of what Robinhood's been doing for a while, right?
还有其他公司也是。
And others.
所以我觉得这算不上什么突破性新闻,也绝对不是在引领这个领域的前沿,但确实是他们必须纳入自己项目和平台的一项功能,以便与其他公司竞争。
So it's, it's I don't think it's as like breaking news and and definitely not, you know, leading the frontier of the space, but was definitely something that they needed to put on, you know, their their program and their platform to to kind of compete with others.
所以很有趣的是,看看这个功能上线后的数据,我想它现在已经对美国用户开放了。
So it'll be interesting to see the numbers there like their next when this launches already, I guess it is open now available to U.
美国。
S.
交易者。
Traders.
所以很值得观察这项功能的交易量。
So it'll be interesting to see the volume on this.
我认为这肯定与未来几个季度股价的走势有很大关系。
I think it will have a lot to do with how the stock price moves in the next couple quarters for sure.
而且不甘落后,Kraken 推出了全天候、每周七天、永久交易的代币化美股服务。
And not to be outdone, but Kraken rolling out twenty fourseven, twenty four hours a day, seven days a week, perpetual trading for tokenized U.
S.
S.
股票。
Stocks.
虽然永续合约和代币化这些方面略有不同,但 Kraken 当然,我们的赞助商 Gemini 也在积极行动,做了一些有趣的事情。
So a little bit different with perps and tokenized and all that, but Kraken moving, obviously our sponsor Gemini is moving the ball as well doing some fun things.
对此你有什么看法?
So any thoughts on this?
我觉得,既然我们在节目中,还是值得提一下的。
I don't, I think it's, you know, for me, I think it's worth mentioning as we are on the show.
我认为这在任何方面都不算特别有意义,因为我们身处加密行业。
I don't think it's really as meaningful in any which way because we're the crypto industry.
我们希望人们来找我们,这打开了通往股票的大门,你知道的,股票和所有这些东西,这很好,因为我们相信分散投资组合,但我们的账户已经设置好了,并且以我们自己的不同方式实现了多元化。
We want people to come to us and this is opening up the gates to the stocks, you know, stocks and all that stuff, which is good because we believe in diversified portfolios, but we already have our accounts set up and are diversified in our own different ways.
所以这对我来说并没有太大影响。
So doesn't really move move the needle for me.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为这只是在表明,瞧,代币化现在正在被使用。
I think it's just showing, hey, tokenization, it's being used right now.
主要是加密原生公司说,嘿。
It's mainly crypto native companies that are saying, hey.
让我们把股票和其他东西代币化。
Let's tokenize stocks and other things.
我认为这是朝着正确方向迈出的第一步,由加密原生公司率先行动,然后其他金融参与者才会跟进,最后所有人都会参与进来。
I think that's the first step in the direction as you have the crypto native companies do it first, then you start having other financial players do it, and then you have everyone do it afterwards.
这大概就是未来的发展方向,对吧?整体趋势会如何演变。
And it's probably how the direction will go, right, how how the overall flow will look.
但再次强调,这是一个正确的方向。
But, again, it's a step in the right direction.
我认为罗宾汉——你知道的,我们下周会邀请他来参加我们的播客,发布可能会在那之后不久。
And I think Robinhood who you know, again, we're gonna have him on the pod next week here, and it'll probably get published a little bit after that.
但你知道,他们率先提出:嘿。
But, you know, they were kind of the ones to say, hey.
你应该能够在一个地方交易所有东西。
You should be able to trade everything from one spot.
我认为他们正在为其他平台树立标准:嘿。
And I think it's setting the standard for other places to say, hey.
为了跟上步伐,我们也必须开始允许所有东西在一个地方交易。
We need in order to keep up, have to start allowing everything to be traded from one spot as well.
而这正是通过代币化实现的。
And that may that's really made possible through tokenization.
嗯。
Mhmm.
是的
Yeah.
然后你把这个作为过渡,让我们顺利衔接。
And then you put this in to transition us smoothly.
我们将直接跳到金融资产上链这个话题。
We'll just jump to this of, you know, financial are moving on chain.
这是来自Bitwise的。
This is from Bitwise.
你可以看到,现实世界资产上链的增长呈陡峭的上升趋势,而且短期内不会放缓。
I mean, you could just see the hockey stick of, you know, RWA assets coming on chain, and it's it's not slowing down anytime soon.
对。
Yeah.
这完全是谎言。
And it's a lie.
我的意思是,你有美国国债、大宗商品、机构另类基金、私人信贷、非美国政府债务。
I mean, you have US treasuries, commodities, institutional alternative funds, private credit, non US government debt.
你还有其他东西。
You have other things.
然后在最上面有一个小小的说明,写着:嘿。
And then there's the little, like, breakdown at the very top, which just says, hey.
这里列举了几个来自贝莱德、阿波罗、摩根大通和富达的例子。
Here's a a couple of the ways that it's happening from BlackRock, Apollo, JPMorgan, Fidelity.
这个名单还可以继续列下去。
The list goes on.
而且,你知道,趋势已经很清楚了。
And, again, you know, the trend is clear.
对吧?
Right?
回顾过去,趋势是你的朋友。
Going back, the trend is your friend.
这个趋势是我认为我们能用图表展现得最清晰的了。
This trend is the most clear I think we could ever possibly make a chart.
这简直呈绝对的抛物线上升趋势。
It's it's just absolutely parabolic and up into the right.
是的。
Yeah.
这里的采用率,以及节目嘉宾、Robinhood的Johan Kurvat下周将要带来的一个小预告。
The the adoptions here and just a little teaser from friend of the show, Johan Kurvat from Robinhood is coming on next week.
这是我们即将讨论的内容。
Something that we're gonna talk about.
一个小预告是他们自己的测试网。
A little teaser is their own test net.
我的意思是,在Robinhood上,你知道的,是在L2上构建,基于以太坊Arbitrum,在Robinhood上进行代币化。
I mean, this is the on Robinhood, you know chain building on the L2 building on Ethereum Arbitrum tokenization on Robinhood.
这将会在整个行业里以极快的速度普及开来。
It's something that's going to spread throughout, you know throughout the industry super super fast.
所以我们提到了一些你们都知道的公司在做这件事,还有很多你们不了解的公司也在做,而所有的资产都在往这里汇聚。
So we mentioned, you know, a bunch of different companies that you all know doing this and there's a ton that you aren't aware of doing it and this is where all the assets are going.
所以我们正在努力寻找最好的项目,以获得最大的曝光度,这就是你们收听这个节目的原因,因为我们每周都致力于为你们带来这些内容。
So we're trying to find, you know, the best projects to try to get the best exposure we can and that's why you tune into this show because that's what we try and do and bring to you every week.
是的。
Yeah.
说得太对了,兄弟。
Spot on, man.
在我们结束之前,布伦丹,你对这个周五有什么最后的想法吗?
Any final thoughts, Brendan, on this Friday before we wrap up?
我想说的是,鉴于目前加密市场的状况,每个人都应该多加关注一下。
You know, I would just say, I think everyone should be paying a bit of extra attention to the crypto market given where it's at right now.
我认为我们正 approaching 一个非常重要的节点。
I think that we're approaching a pretty important point.
你先是经历一个‘榨干你’的阶段,也就是大幅下跌,然后是‘耗尽你’的阶段,通常发生在底部附近。
And you kind of have the tear you out phase, which is the big move down, and then you have the wear you out phase, which typically happens around the bottom.
这足以让你感到疲惫,甚至可能让你沮丧,因为价格迟迟不涨。
And it's enough to kind of exhaust you, probably make you frustrated that it's not going up.
然后当你重新转向上涨趋势时,总会有人不相信,觉得这根本不会发生。
And then you have, you know, the as you go back into the to the move to the upside, you know, there's always the disbelief of, like, oh, this isn't actually gonna happen.
所以我认为加密货币正进入一个非常关键的时期,我们必须重新开始关注它。
And so I do think crypto is entering into a super important time where we gotta start paying attention to this again.
我们必须开始分析它的动向。
We gotta start analyzing what it's doing.
显然,幕后正在发生很多事。
And, clearly, there's a lot of stuff happening behind the scenes.
我们只是在等待技术指标反映出我们普遍看到的基本面变化。
We're just waiting for the technicals to kind of reflect some of the fundamentals that we are seeing across the board here.
主要的催化剂似乎是,嘿。
And the big catalysts seem to be, hey.
让我们先观望这些不同法案的结构进展,或者等新的美联储主席上任,或者等这些恐慌情绪和地缘政治宏观因素平息。
Let's wait for some sort of structure through these different structure bills, or maybe let's wait for the new Fed chairman, or let's wait for some of this FUD and geopolitical macroeconomic.
让我们先让这些事情稳定下来。
Let's let that stuff settle down.
但我认为,一旦你开始看到我刚才提到的那些大事得到解答,这些问题得到解决,你可能会看到加密货币再次向上回升。
But I think once you start seeing some of those big things that I just mentioned get answered and we start seeing resolutions to those, I think you can probably start to see crypto, you know, get a bit of resolution back to the upside some.
而且,你知道,这些可能不会立即发生。
And, you know, again, maybe that's not gonna happen immediately.
也许我们还需要再跌一点。
Maybe we do need to go a little bit lower.
但加密货币现在正处于一个有趣的阶段,感觉价格与实际发生的事情有些脱节,而我始终认为,这恰恰创造了真正的机遇。
But crypto's at an interesting point where it feels like price is a little bit disassociated with what's actually happening, which, again, I always go back to saying I think that that creates true opportunity.
但时间会证明一切,Tivo。
But time will tell, Tivo.
是的。
Yep.
时间会证明一切。
Time will tell.
在这一过程中,我们会每周推出多期节目、多次访谈,始终感谢你们的支持。
And through that time, we'll be here with you with multiple episodes a week, multiple interviews a week, and we just always appreciate you guys being here.
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