加密货币速览：在市场关注利率决议之际，比特币还是以太坊更值得交易？

你知道当你翻衣柜找衣服的时候，总有那么几件你会一直拿起来穿，反复穿。

You know when you look in your closet for clothes, we always have those pieces that you keep grabbing for and wearing on repeat.

那件百搭的毛衣，那条完美的裤子，或者那件你总是第一个伸手去拿的T恤。

The sweater that goes with everything, the perfect pair of pants, or that tee you somehow always reach for first.

这些就是让你穿衣变得轻松的单品，而这正是Quince最擅长的。

Those are the pieces that make getting dressed easy and that's what Quince does best.

Quince专注于高品质的衣橱必备单品，采用优质材料，比如100%蒙古羊绒、有机棉和美利奴羊毛。

Quince focuses on high quality wardrobe staples made with premium materials like 100% Mongolian cashmere, organic cotton, and merino wool.

这些款式经典、百搭，设计成你每天都会依赖的可靠单品。

The styles are timeless, versatile, and designed to become dependable pieces you reach for every day.

各位，夏天结束了，秋天马上就到了，秋天是我最喜欢的穿衣季节，因为九月初天气还暖和的时候，你还能穿那些轻薄、透气、合身的T恤和轻便的裤子，但天气开始转凉，你就需要毛衣了，需要提升一下你的穿搭，重新整理衣柜，迎接深秋和初冬。

Guys, summer is over and fall is right around the corner, and it's my favorite time of year for clothes in the fall because you still get some of that light, breathable, fitted tees and light pants that you want to wear when it's early September and still warm, but it starts to transition into that colder weather where you're going need some sweaters, you're going need to up your game and reorganize your closet as we transition into the late fall early winter.

Quince是你买衣服的首选之地。

Quince is your place to go for all things clothes.

我喜欢他们的亚麻制品。

I love their linens.

我们整个夏天都在聊这个。

We talked about it all summer.

整个夏天都在希腊用Tevo的亚麻布，但现在进入秋天了，我们可能想要一些T恤、裤子，然后等天气一转冷，我回北方过圣诞假期的时候，肯定会买他们家的100%蒙古羊绒毛衣，我特别喜欢。

It was Tevo linens out in Greece all summer long, but now as we head into the fall, we're looking for maybe some more T shirts, some pants, and then again, once the weather turns and I go up north for the Christmas holiday season, I'll definitely be doing their 100% Mongolian cashmere sweaters that I love so very much.

朋友们，Quince真的很棒。

Guys, Quince is amazing.

他们的网站也特别好用。

The website is awesome.

我之前也提过。

I've talked about it before.

他们不只是卖衣服。

It's not just clothing.

Quince把同样的用心用在他们做的每一样东西上，从酒店品质的床品和卫浴用品，到厨房必需品，再到设计贴心的家具。

Quince brings the same approach to everything they make, From hotel quality bedding and bath to kitchen essentials and thoughtfully designed furniture.

他们为日常生活打造设计精良的产品。

They make well designed pieces for everyday living.

我经常提到这一点。

I talk about all the time.

他们做每件事都很到位。

They do everything the right way.

在Quince找到你今年秋天的最爱吧。

Find your next fall favorites at Quince.

下载Quince应用，享受专属优惠，或者访问quince.com/crypto10one。

Download the Quince app for app exclusive offers or go to quince.com/crypto10one.

享受免费配送和365天退货服务，现在加拿大和英国也支持了。

Get free shipping on your order and three hundred and sixty five day returns now available in Canada and The UK too.

网址是quince.com/crypto10one。

That's quince.com/crypto10one.

别再等别人允许你创业了。

Stop waiting for permission to start your business.

你的想法离实现只差一步，Shopify能帮你轻松搞定。

Your idea is one step away, and Shopify can make it easy to make it happen.

我们在Crypto one zero one就是这么做的，用Shopify卖我们的书，之后的事情就顺理成章了。

That's what we did at Crypto one zero one and use Shopify to sell our book, and the rest is history.

我喜欢Shopify的一点是，它把创业中最让人头疼的部分变得简单了。

The thing I like about Shopify is it takes the scary part out of starting.

你不需要自己琢磨网站、支付、结账、库存这些琐碎的事情，这些往往在还没上线前就把人吓退了。

You're not just sitting there trying to figure out a website, payments, checkout, inventory, all these little things that stop people before they even launch.

说到建网店，我觉得最大的问题就是流程上的阻碍。

When I think about building a storefront, the biggest thing is friction.

你希望顾客一进你的页面，就喜欢上你卖的东西，然后能顺利下单，不会卡住。

You want someone to land on your page, like what you're selling and be able to buy without getting stuck.

这正是Shopify厉害的地方。

That's where Shopify is huge.

Shopify的结账系统设计得能帮助更多顾客完成购买，而且他们下次再来时，信息已经自动保存好了。

Shopify checkout is built to help more customers finish their purchase, and when they come back, their details are already saved.

一键就能搞定。

One tap and they're done.

最棒的是，Shopify 支持全球数百万家企业，从你熟悉的大品牌，比如 Mattel 和 Gymshark，到刚刚起步的小公司。

The cool part is Shopify powers millions of businesses worldwide from huge brands that you know, like Mattel and Gymshark to small businesses just getting started.

所以无论你是想打造下一个大品牌，还是推出你的第一个产品，基础设施都已经准备好了。

So whether you're building the next big brand or launching your first product, the infrastructure is already there.

一旦这部分搞定了，你就可以专注于真正重要的事情：打造品牌、吸引关注、把顾客带到你的店铺，让生意不断成长。

Once that part is handled, you can focus on the real work, building the brand, getting attention, and bringing people to your storefront so the business can grow.

当有人真正下单的那一刻，你的想法就变成了现实。

That moment when someone actually buys, that's when the idea becomes real.

有了 Shopify，你的想法和真正的生意之间没有任何障碍，所以去实现它吧。

With Shopify, nothing stands between your idea and a real business, so go make it one.

今天就去 shopify.com/crypto10one 开始你的免费试用吧。

Start your free trial today at shopify.com/crypto10one.

记住，免费试用就在 shopify.com/crypto10one。

That's a free trial at shopify.com/crypto10one.

好了，各位。

Alright, everybody.

欢迎回到《加密快报》。

Welcome back to the Crypto Rundown.

今天这期特别不一样。

A very special rundown.

这是周二的双人特辑。

It's a two for Tuesday.

我们有布伦丹，还有亨特。

We've got Brendan, we've got Hunter.

接下来，加密货币会走向何方？

And where is crypto going next?

加密货币正在反弹，正值今年最大的市场波动周之一。

Crypto is rallying into one of the biggest market moving weeks of the year.

本周有《清晰法案》投票、周三的联邦公开市场委员会会议，而且市场拒绝回调。

We've got the Clarity Act vote, the FOMC Meeting on Wednesday, and a market that refuses to roll over.

所以今天，我们来分析技术面，看看这些事件是会推动下一轮突破，还是会引发大家关注的回调。

So today, we're breaking down the technical analysis to see whether these events could fuel the next breakout or trigger a pullback that everybody would have their eye on.

伙计们，这几周真是精彩纷呈。

It's been a fascinating couple weeks, guys.

布伦丹，是你把这个数据放进去的。

Brendan, you put this in.

上周，加密货币ETF吸引了13亿美元的资金流入。

The Crypto ETFs have attracted 1,300,000,000 in inflows last week.

这已经是连续第六周了。

That makes it six consecutive weeks of a row.

我们来看看图表。

We're we're we check out the charts.

我们在节目里已经好几周没这么做了。

We haven't done this in a couple weeks here on the rundown.

所以再说一次，如果你在听音频，想看YouTube上的图表，一定要去点YouTube链接，这样你就能看到亨特和布伦丹的详细分析。

So again, if you're listening on audio and you wanna check out the YouTube charts, make sure that you go and click the YouTube link so you can see Hunter and Brendan break this down.

还有一点，在我们深入图表之前想说的是，面对这么强劲的看涨势头，连续六周的资金流入和积极的价格走势，现在是审视你加密货币投资组合的最佳时机。

And one note, that we wanna talk about before we dive into the charts is with all this bullish momentum, these six consecutive weeks of inflows and positive price action, it is the perfect time to review your crypto portfolio.

我们的无畏领袖布莱斯，这周四会做一个演讲，讲讲具体会是什么样子。

And our fearless leader, Bryce, is gonna be giving a presentation this Thursday on what that would look like.

所以，如果你想知道在下一轮牛市中你的投资组合应该是什么样，我们下面有链接。

So if you're interested in knowing what your portfolio should be looking like for this next bull run, we have a link below.

这是布莱斯一直在准备的完全免费的演讲。

It's completely free presentation that Bryce has been building.

这周四布莱斯会直播。

It's gonna be live with Bryce this Thursday.

看看下面的链接。

Check the link below.

报名吧。

Sign up.

完全免费，现在我们交给亨特，让他来分析图表。

It's completely free as we hand it off to Hunter to go into the charts.

亨特，欢迎回到节目。

Hunter, welcome back to the rundown.

嘿。

Hey.

我很高兴能来这里。

I am excited to be here.

今天是个很棒的星期二。

It's a great Tuesday.

这周很忙。

It's a busy week.

今天是最忙的日子之一。

One of the busiest days is today.

可能是全年最忙的，明天可能也一样。

Probably the whole year, if not tomorrow as well.

所以我很期待聊聊这个。

So I'm excited to talk about that.

但更重要的是，你知道，外面有很多新闻，但没有什么比图表更能告诉我们未来的走向了。

But more importantly, you know, there's news out there, but nothing shows us where we're going like the charts do.

那我们就开始吧，我给大家把这个调出来。

So let's go ahead, and I will pull this up for everyone out there.

所有我们亲爱的支持者们，向每一位正在看直播或者不是直播的朋友们打个招呼。

All of our wonderful patrons, shout out to everyone who is watching this live or not live.

不管怎样，你们看的东西绝对是对的。

Either way, you are watching the exact right thing.

好的。

Alright.

对我来说，这个很简单。

So this is pretty simple here for me.

我跟你们说，我们从二月初开始就一直在这个区间里。

I'll tell you guys, we've been in this range ever since the beginning of February.

你们会注意到，我们就是处在一个长期的区间里。

You'll notice that we're just in a long range.

这个区间已经持续了大概六七个月了，当然，最重要的水平在这里，大约83，这是我们上次在两百日黄色移动平均线附近被拒绝的位置。

It's been going out for relatively six or seven months right now with, of course, the most important level here around 83, which was our last rejection around the two hundred day yellow moving average right here.

而且我们是在一个小范围内波动，你会看到，市场喜欢从大范围到小范围，再到小范围，再到小范围。

And we spent in a mini range, as you'll see, you know, we kinda the market likes to go from big range to mini range to mini range to mini range.

所以市场实际上是在震荡，而不是在趋势中。

And so the market is actually ranging more than it's trending.

这真的会让很多人措手不及，他们总以为市场会一直这样走。

And this really this this is what throws people off guard a lot is they expect it to kind of always be going like this.

但通常情况并非如此。

And that is not the case usually ever.

当我们迎来大行情时，它们发生得非常非常快。

When we get our big moves, they happen very, very quickly.

然后我们就待在这里，把大家都震荡出局，然后再决定继续行动。

And then we sit here, we chop everyone out, and then we decide to move again.

所以看起来我们现在正处于这种观望状态，今天和明天都有重大消息，这些消息会真正影响很多风险资产。

So it seems like we're kind of in that holding pattern right now with big news today and big news tomorrow that will really affect a lot of the risk on assets.

但我喜欢把这看作是一个大的区间。

But I like to look at this as just one big range.

我们有从二月初到现在的成交量分布图。

We have our volume profile from the beginning of February up to where we are now.

你会注意到这条橙色的线，我其实非常看重成交量分布图，这就是我们所说的价值区高点。

And you'll notice that this orange line, I mean, I'm very big into volume profile is what we call the valuer high.

这是一个非常技术性的位置，大约在整体价值区上方一个标准差的位置。

It's just a very technical spot where it's about one standard deviation above where this this whole value is.

它就是从控制点算起的一个标准差。

It's it's one standard deviation from the point of control.

这里是下轨，这里是上轨。

Low lower band here and upper band here.

你会发现我们现在正好回落到这个位置，就在我们说话的时候，大概在七万五千七百左右。

And you'll notice we're actually pulling back into it right now as we speak, around seventy five, seven hundred.

我们还扫过了这里的这个小低点，也就是这个区间的起点。

We also did sweep this little low right here, which was the beginning of this range.

所以这是我非常喜欢关注的一个点。

So this is something I really like to look at.

我其实在考虑这可能是接下来几天的一个做多机会，因为你会注意到，当我们突破这个区域上方，并且突破价值区域高点时，我们会寻找一个回踩，并希望它能守住。

I'm actually looking at this as a possible long opportunity over the next few days because as you'll notice, as we broke out above this area and when we break out above the value area high, well, we look for kind of a retest and we want it to hold.

如果守住了，那就是一个非常非常看涨的信号。

And if it does, then that's a very, very bullish sign.

另外，因为我们没有突破这个高点，只是非常接近它，那么通常这会让这个区域变成一个磁铁，因为上方存在止损单。

Moreover, because we didn't take this high out and we just left it really closely, well, what that usually does is that kind of makes this area a magnet because you have stop losses that exist above here.

上方有止损单，

You have stop losses above the there,

还有

and you

做空的人。

have people that are shorting.

所以会发生的是，价格从那里拉开，回落到区间的另一侧，测试一个非常重要的成交量水平，然后实际上困住所有人，反转，并向上挤压突破高点。

And so what happens is price pulls away from it, comes down to the other side of the range, test a very important volume level, and then actually traps everyone, reverses, and goes up to start squeezing above the highs.

所以这就是我在寻找的。

So this is what I'm looking for.

唯一让我有点担心的就是，如果回调更深一些，可能会重新测试两百日均线，你知道，这本身就有点吓人，因为那意味着价格会回到这个价值区域内。

The only, I guess, consternation would be if we get a bit of a deeper pullback, maybe to retest the two hundred day moving average, which, you know, that in of itself would be a little bit scarier because that means you are pulling back into this value area.

那样的话，情况就变成了，好吧，也许确实会反弹，但这时候你得小心，这个区域可能会变成阻力位。

And so then you would have the case of, okay, maybe you do get a bounce here, but now you'd have to be careful about this becoming a form of resistance.

如果真是这样，那才是我真正关注的。

So if that were the case, that's really what I'd be looking for.

如果发生这种情况，那可能会有更深的回调，重新测试这个区间的顶部，大概在六万七到六万八左右。

And if that were to happen, then you'd have maybe a deeper pullback to retest the top of this range, which is around 67 to 68 k.

为什么要这样呢？

And why would you do that?

嗯，在这波冲动上涨中，这里形成的成交量并不多。

Well, in this impulsive move up, there's not a lot of volume that gets formed here.

所以涨得有多快，跌得也可能有多快。

So just as fast as it goes up, it can come down just as fast.

所以你会重新调整这些仓位，或者这些还没触及的区域。

And so you kind of remitigate these positions or these areas that haven't been touched.

所以如果我们真的跌到那么深，那会是一个非常非常有利可图的位置。

And so this would be a very, very lucrative spot if we were to dive that deep.

不过目前我的基本预期并不是跌到那么深。

That's not my base case at the moment to dive that deep.

我其实希望价格能在74、75这个位置附近稳住。

I actually do wanna see us kinda hold up right around this level around 74, 75.

这差不多是之前我们冲动性下跌前的那个整理区间。

This is kind of that prior consolidation before we broke down impulsively.

所以，你看，你把这个拉过来。

So, you know, you you pull that over here.

这里就是你的一个关键区域。

This is kind of your zone right here.

虽然会有很多新闻出来，人们会借着这些新闻卖出，但这本身也可能是一个信号，因为我们经常看到价格在重大事件发生前朝相反方向移动，然后事件发生后朝另一个方向走。

So while we'll have a bunch of news coming out and people are selling kind of into this news, can also be a bit of a signal because we do see price kind of move in the opposite direction before the big events happen and then go the opposite way.

所以我们在这里要做的，基本上就是在价值区间的顶部寻找支撑，然后期待价格在支撑上方出现挤压上涨。

So what we're looking at here is just trying to pretty much find support at the top of this valuary high and then looking for a squeeze above there.

那如果我们真的突破了那个位置，那意味着什么呢？

And so what does it what does that mean if we do get above there?

嗯，我们稍微把图拉远一点看。一个非常关键的价位是，如果我们回到6月1日这里，我们画了一条射线。

Well, we just kind of we zoom out a bit And one very important level is if we go to June 1 right here, we put a a ray.

就在那里，你会看到年度开盘价大概在88000左右。

Right there, you'll see that the yearly open is around 88 k or so.

所以今年我们还是负收益，但那会是一个非常非常有意思的位置，因为如果我们再从历史最高点到现在的位置画一个成交量分布图，你会发现那个高点的价值区间也一直延伸到上面那里。

So we're still negative for the year, but that's gonna be a very, very interesting spot to go to because if we also take our volume profile from the all time high to where we are now, you'll see that the value of your high is also for that range all the way up there as well.

所以在87000到88000这个区间，我们有一个非常好的小区域，如果我们有机会做多，并且能向上突破到那个水平。

So you've got kind of a wonderful little zone here around 87 to 88 k where if we do get a long opportunity to squeeze above into that level.

从技术分析的角度来看，这正是我在寻找的。

And that's really what I'm looking for from a technical standpoint.

不过你要知道，价格可能会稍微再回调深一点。

Now just know that you could pull back just a little bit deeper.

但就目前而言，我认为如果这周出现一些向下的混乱和波动，那会是一个非常不错的做多机会。

But for now, I think this is a very up possible good long opportunity this week if we do get a little bit of chaos and volatility to the downside.

这就是我要找的，因为你知道，一旦我们到了这个区域，今年就持平了，然后我们就会经历所谓的由红转绿，就是今年本来是亏损的，然后变成盈利。

That's what I'd be looking for because, you know, once we get to this area, now we're flat on the year, and then we have what we call like a red to green move where we're red for the year, then we go green.

这就变成了支撑位，现在我们实际上有机会可能突破年初的高点，大约在97000到98000，然后冲向10万这个心理整数关口。

This becomes support, and now we actually have the opportunity to maybe squeeze above the early year highs around 97, 98 into the kind of psychological whole number of about a 100,000.

所以，其实从技术面来看，我们看的很简单，就我个人而言，接下来几周，尤其是未来几周，我看的就是这些。

So that's really, you know, pretty simple actually here, what we're looking at technically, from what I'm looking at technically personally, going forward, especially over the next few weeks.

而且，明天好像是VIX期权到期日。

And we have, you know, we have VIX expiration tomorrow, I believe.

周五有很多期权到期。

We have a lot of option of expirations on Friday.

所以我预计这个区域会有大量波动，但任何向下的延伸走势都可能是一个做多的机会，以便我们继续上涨，进入9月底，然后到下个季度，因为我们两周后就要结束这个季度了。

So I would expect just a ton of volatility in this area, but looking for any kind of extended moves to the downside is a possible long opportunity to continue our move up going into the end of September and then to the next quarter as we will end the quarter out here in two weeks.

所以，各位，这就是我关注的重点。

So that's what I'm looking at guys.

你知道什么最拖慢团队进度吗？

You know what slows teams down more than anything?

拖慢团队速度的往往不是人员编制预算，甚至也不是工具本身。

It's not always the headcount budget or even the tools themselves.

而是当工作流程只存在于某人的脑子里，从来没有被真正记录下来的时候。

It's when the way work gets done lives in someone's head and never actually gets documented.

然后有新同事加入，新平台上线，或者有队友离开，突然每个人都在用不同的方式做同一件事。

Then someone new joins, a new platform gets rolled out, or a teammate leaves, and suddenly everybody's doing the same process in a different way.

这正是今天的赞助商Scribe要解决的问题。

That's exactly the problem today's sponsor, Scribe, was built to solve.

Scribe是一个工作流AI平台，94%的财富500强公司都在使用它。

Scribe is a workflow AI platform trusted by 94% of the Fortune 500.

它能实时捕捉工作流程，并将其转化为一步一步的文档，方便团队审阅和分享。

It captures workflows as they happen and turns them into step by step documentation your team can review and share.

你只需要像平常一样操作，Scribe就会边做边生成指南，自动记录每一次点击、每一步操作和每一个截图。

You just do the process like you normally would and Scribe builds the guide as you go, capturing every click, step, and screenshot automatically.

因为我们的团队是远程办公，我确实有过不止一次需要向同事解释同一个设置或流程的经历，而且总觉得这些应该在第一次的时候就记录下来。

With our team being remote, I have definitely had moments where I've had to explain the same setup or process more than once to a colleague, and it always feels like something that should have been documented the first time.

有了Scribe，原本需要花几个小时编写和整理的内容，不到一分钟就能准备好分享。

With Scribe, what could take hours of writing and cleanup can be ready to share in under a minute.

Scribe还会自动从截图中隐去敏感信息，比如姓名、邮箱和账号。

Scribe also automatically redacts sensitive information like names, emails, and account numbers from screenshots.

管理员可以在整个团队中强制执行这一功能，确保没有任何遗漏。

Admins can enforce that across the team so nothing slips through the cracks.

此外，任何按照流程操作的人都能获得实时的屏幕指导，准确显示在实际工具中应该点击哪里。

Plus, anyone following the process can get real time on screen guidance showing exactly where to click inside the actual tool.

Scribe不仅仅是记录工作流程，它还会利用AI来建议改进方法，帮助你发现冗余步骤以及简化或自动化的机会。

Scribe doesn't just document workflows, it uses AI to suggest ways to improve them, helping you spot redundant steps and opportunities to simplify or automate.

想看看Scribe能为你的组织带来什么，请访问scribe.how/crypto101，并提及crypto one 01，即可在特定套餐上免费获得第一个月的Scribe capture。

To see what Scribe could look like for your org, head to scribe.how/crypto101 and mention crypto one 01 for your first month of Scribe capture free on select plans.

那就是Scribe，scribe.how/crypto100one。

That's Scribe, scribe.how/crypto100one.

现在大家都在谈论AI，但真正重要的AI是那种能帮你节省时间、做出更明智决策、减轻工作负担的AI。

Everybody is talking about AI right now, but the AI that actually matters is the kind that saves you time, helps you make smarter decisions, and takes work off your plate.

如果你在做电商生意，物流这件事要么让你顺风顺水，要么让你彻底卡壳。

And if you're running an e commerce business, shipping is one of those things that can either keep you moving or completely slow you down.

所以我特别喜欢ShipStation。

That's why I like ShipStation.

它是一个专为电商打造的端到端订单履约平台，它的AI基于全球数十亿个包裹的真实物流数据训练而成，积累了数十年的经验。

It's an end to end order fulfillment platform built for e commerce businesses, and its AI is trained on decades of real shipping data from billions of shipments across the world.

所以不用再手忙脚乱地切换各种工具，ShipStation能帮你掌控全局。

So instead of juggling a bunch of different tools, ShipStation helps you stay in control.

它能在库存不足时提醒你，推荐最优的承运商和费率，自动处理任务，帮你在业务增长时节省时间。

It can alert you when your stock is low, recommend the best carrier selections and rates, automate tasks, help you save time as you grow.

你还能获得跨销售渠道的库存同步、自动比价、品牌化退货门户，以及与会计和CRM软件的集成，所有这些都集中在一个地方。

You also get inventory syncing across sales channels, automatic rate shopping, a branded returns portal, and integrations with accounting and CRM software all in one place.

如果我是开网店的，我肯定想要这样的工具，因为一旦订单开始涌进来，你肯定不希望物流成为拖后腿的环节。

If I were running an e commerce store, this is exactly the kind of tool I'd want because once the orders start coming in, you don't want shipping to be the thing that's holding you back.

超过一百万家商家信赖ShipStation来优化和扩展他们的物流业务。

Over 1,000,000 businesses have trusted ShipStation to optimize and scale their shipping.

你越早切换，就能越早开始节省时间和金钱。

The sooner you switch, the sooner you start saving time and money.

今天就注册ShipStation，在shipstation.com输入优惠码crypto，即可免费使用六十天。

Get started with ShipStation today and get sixty days free at shipstation.com with code crypto.

网址是shipstation.com，优惠码是crypto。

That's shipstation.com, code crypto.

shipstation.com，优惠码crypto。

Shipstation.com, code crypto.

税费和手续费另计。

Taxes and fees apply.

不知道你怎么样，但我经常不知不觉就到饭点了。

I don't know about you, but dinner sneaks up on me all the time.

打开冰箱才发现没有现成的蛋白质，这时候我可不想跑去商店，临时买点肉，还得赌店里还剩什么肉或汉堡。

I'll open the fridge and realize I have no protein ready, and at that point, I'm not trying to go to the store, make a last minute grocery run, and gamble on whatever meats or burgers are left at the store.

所以Omaha Steaks是个很好的冰箱储备选择。

That's why Omaha Steaks is a great freezer move.

就像家里有个信得过的肉铺，最需要的时候随时有好肉。

It's like having a trusted butcher at home and quality protein when you need it the most.

奥马哈牛排用一百多年的时间赢得了好口碑。

Omaha Steaks has earned its reputation with over a hundred years.

全国各地的厨房都信赖同样的牛肉，直接送到你家门口。

It's the same beef trusted in kitchens across the country, shipped straight to your door.

牛排馆的品质，却没有牛排馆的价格。

Steakhouse quality without the steakhouse prices.

家人会以为这顿饭花了好几个小时，其实没有。

Your family will think dinner took hours, but it didn't.

只要几分钟。

Just minutes.

如果你还没试过，那“完美汉堡套餐”就是最好的起点。

And if you never tried them, the burger perfection flight is the perfect place to start.

里面有20个高级牛排汉堡，用的是五种不同部位的牛排。

You get 20 premium steak burgers made from five different cuts of steak.

四块菲力牛排汉堡、四块纽约客牛排汉堡、四块肋眼牛排汉堡、四块牛胸肉汉堡和四块西冷牛排汉堡。

Four filet mignon burgers, four New York strip burgers, four rib eye burgers, four brisket burgers, and four sirloin burgers.

各位，这简直就是汉堡界的山寨币组合。

Guys, this is the Altcoin basket of burgers right here.

如果我和布莱恩在节目里，我们肯定会把这些对半分，因为你知道我们夏天多喜欢烧烤。

If me and Brian were on the rundown, we would be divvying these up fifty fifty because you know how we like to grill in the summer.

所以你拿到的不仅仅是一盒汉堡，而是不同的风味、不同的口感，还有真正的牛排馆级别的多样性，你可以随时上烤架，或者工作日快速搞定。

So you're not just getting a box of burgers, you're getting different flavor profiles, different textures, and real steakhouse style variety you can throw on the grill or cook up fast during the week.

今天就到 omahasteaks.com 试试这个完美汉堡套餐吧。

Try the burger perfection flight at omahasteaks.com today.

20个优质牛排汉堡只要79.99美元，使用促销码 beef 还能再减35美元。

That's 20 premium steak burgers for just $79.99, plus get $35 off with the promo code beef.

网址是 omahasteaks.com，结账时输入促销码 beef 立减35美元。

That's omahasteaks.com promo code beef for $35 off at checkout.

条款适用。

Terms apply.

详情请见网站。

See site for details.

太棒了。

Awesome stuff.

谢谢你，Hunter。

Thank you, Hunter.

接下来交给Brendan，听听你的看法。

And then Brendan to hand it over to you and get your thoughts.

你在图表上看到了什么？

What are you what are you seeing on the charts?

显然，我们刚才聊了比特币，也许你可以带我们看看其他主流币，或者你在这个波动的一周里关注的其他东西。

Obviously, we kinda covered Bitcoin there, so maybe lead us for other, blue chips or anything else that you're eyeing up into this marking moving week.

当然。

Absolutely.

我们来看看比特币和以太坊的情况，当然，还有很多其他的。

Let's go ahead and take a look at what's happening here with good old mister Bitcoin and Ethereum and and obviously, like, lot of those.

其实关于比特币，我还想补充一点。

I just wanted to add one thing actually with Bitcoin.

而且我完全同意亨特的观点，想说，嘿。

And just to really agree with Hunter here and say, hey.

你知道，如果我们跌破你在这里看到的这个位置，显然会有一些风险。

You know, there is obviously some risk if we kind of break beneath what you see here.

我同意。

I would agree.

你知道，你确实可以看到回调，但我也认为那是一个做多的机会。

You know, you can definitely see a pullback, but I would also, you know, view that as a longing opportunity.

因为如果你回顾上一个周期，那实际上是我们看到的情况，就是当比特币最终跌破200日均线时。

Because if you look back at the prior cycle, that's actually something that we saw, which was when Bitcoin finally broke that two hundred day moving average.

它先是涨了一波，然后稍微盘整了一下，接着回调到均线附近，把它当作支撑，然后牛市从那里继续。

It went on a nice run, kinda chilled out for a bit, and then pulled back into it, used it as support, and then the bull market continued from there.

所以我不反对看到这种情况，但我同意。

So I wouldn't be opposed to seeing that, but I would agree.

总的来说，整体看涨，但未来可能会有回调，不过我不会把它看作是一个清仓或做空一切的事件。

You know, net net kind of perspective here is overall bullish with the possibility of pullbacks on the horizon, but I wouldn't be looking at as, like, a sell everything, short everything kind of event.

而且我觉得看涨势头会继续，从比特币开始，也扩展到很多大盘币甚至山寨币。

And I think the bullish momentum continues from just, you know, maybe looking at Bitcoin first to also looking at a lot of large caps and even Altcoins here.

最近我们看到的一个现象是，如果你把比特币的近期表现和其他币种的图表比较，其他币种图表排除了所有大盘币，也就是前十大加密货币，排除这些之后，实际上其他币种的表现比比特币还要好。

You know, one of the things that we've seen fairly recently is that if you compare how Bitcoin is done with kind of this immediate move and then you look at the others chart, which excludes all of the large caps, right, all the top 10 largest cryptos, you exclude those out, and this thing's actually been moving even better to the upside than what Bitcoin's been doing.

所以随着下跌趋势似乎被打破的迹象出现，传统山寨币市场真的在回归，我觉得大家都很喜欢这个。

So you've been seeing the traditional Altcoin market really return here as we've started to see signs that the downtrend looks as if it's breaking, and I think people are liking this.

所以山寨币是这波行情的大赢家。

So Altcoins have been a big beneficiary of this.

而且我认为领涨的山寨币主要是以太坊，甚至还有索拉纳。

And I think leading those Altcoins have really been Ethereum and even Solana.

现在以太坊的图表和比特币有点不同。

Now Ethereum here, little bit different from the Bitcoin chart.

比特币在重新测试之前的高点，而以太坊则是在突破并收在之前的高点之上。

Bitcoin is retesting these prior highs, where if you go over to Ethereum, it's breaking above and closing above its prior swing highs in here.

所以这是个大事。

So this is a big deal.

以太坊今年早些时候一直很难突破2300、2400美元。

Ethereum really struggling to break above 23, 2,400 back in the earlier parts of this year.

现在它在这里反弹，并把它当作支撑位。

And now this is where we're bouncing off of and using it as support.

所以以太坊的表现一直优于比特币。

So Ethereum here has been outperforming Bitcoin.

比特币从低点上涨了大约40%，而以太坊从低点上涨了大约76%，几乎是比特币的两倍。

Bitcoin rallying about 40% off the lows, and Ethereum here rallying about 76% off the lows, nearly outperforming Bitcoin two to one.

所以以太坊不仅表现几乎是比特币的两倍，而且它还在整理并收于之前的阻力位和之前的高点之上。

So not only do you have nearly two to one outperformance in Ethereum, you're also getting it con consolidating and closing over this prior resistance point, over those prior highs.

Solana也出现了类似但没那么强的走势，它在之前的摆动高点和阻力区上方整理，现在把这些位置当作支撑，但你确实看到了一些抛售压力和下行风险，Solana从高点下跌了约11%，而以太坊跌幅较小，大约9%。

And you're seeing a similar but not quite as strong move from Solana where it is kind of consolidating above these prior swing highs and above those resistance zones and now using them as a point of support, but you are seeing a little bit more selling pressure and downside as Solana here is down about 11% off the highs, whereas Ethereum, is a little bit less than that rated around 9%.

所以，你知道，我仍然会关注这些大盘币，因为整个山寨币市场已经出现了这种情况。

So, you know, I'd still keep an eye on these large caps because you've had in in Altcoins as a whole.

我觉得，你知道，如果真的出现回调，我会关注其他币种的图表，看看山寨币怎么继续维持。

I think, you know, if we do get a pullback, I would be watching this others chart to see how Altcoins continue to maintain.

因为如果这里真的出现反转，你还会看着这个说，嘿。

Because if they do get a reversal here, you'd be still looking at this and saying, hey.

你知道，这波行情的大部分涨幅其实还没真正发生。

You know, the the bulk of this move to the side hasn't really happened yet.

你知道，如果我们真的在形成反转——虽然这是个很大的假设——但你知道，山寨币显然是那些被抛售最严重的群体之一。

You know, if we are truly and it's a big if, but if we are truly forming a reversal, well, you know, Altcoins are obviously, you know, one of those groups that has been just the most heavily sold off.

我觉得很多人开始重新关注这一点了。

And I think a lot of people are starting to look back at that.

所以，你知道，ETH 这里，Solana 这里，听好了。

So, you know, ETH here, Solana here, listen.

我的想法是，如果它们跌破这些局部支撑位，会不会有一些下行风险？

My thoughts are, do they have a little bit of downside risk if they break these local levels?

确实有。

They do.

但是，你知道，和Hunter的立场类似，我确实把回调看作是买入机会，这也是我想做好准备的事情。

But, you know, similar to Hunter's stance, I really am looking forward at the pullbacks that we get as buying opportunities, and that's just something I wanna be prepared for.

这是个很好的铺垫方式，我觉得这也说明了我们回顾过去、记住当时情况的重要性，因为这是个很好的过渡，来聊聊现在《清晰法案》的进展。比如，进入夏天的时候，有个八月的休会截止日期，当时说，嘿，如果到那时还没投票，这事儿就完了，完了，完了。

It's it's a great way to tee it up, and I think it kinda goes to the fact of us kinda looking back and remembering when, because it's a good transition into what's been going on with the Clarity Act right now is like, you know, going into the summer, there was the August, recess deadline of saying, Hey, if we don't get the vote by then, this thing's dead, it's dead, it's dead.

然后显然，情况看起来不太妙。

And then obviously the it didn't look good.

所以《清晰法案》没能通过。

And so the Clarity Act wasn't going through.

然后，对于播客的老听众来说，我们和Bryce一起去了Out East活动，做了那些精彩的采访。

And then kind of referring back to the longtime listeners of the podcast, we went out to the Out East event with the tie, Bryce and I, and we produced all those, awesome interviews.

我们采访了Chris Giancarlo，他是前CFTC主席。

And we had, the Chris Giancarlo, who was a former CFTC chair.

我们和他进行了一次很棒的采访，那是在七月初，那也是我们第一次听到业内领袖们说，嘿，就算《清晰法案》没通过也没关系。

We had a great interview with him, and that was the first time that it was early July, and that was the first time we heard that narrative of leaders in the space basically saying, hey, it's it's okay if the Clarity Act doesn't pass.

加密货币会没事的，因为我们会有一个想要监管的CFTC主席和一个想要监管的SEC主席来制定规则。

Crypto's gonna be okay because we'll get the rules of the road with a CFTC chair that wants regulation, an SEC chair that wants regulation.

所以我觉得很有意思的是，当《清晰法案》基本上没戏的时候，至少博彩赔率显示是这样，而且确实没通过。

And so I found it really interesting when the Clarity Act was basically not gonna happen, at least the betting odds showed that, and it didn't.

然后呢，有一些波动，但之后我们迎来了从低点开始的这波史诗级反弹，一直持续到秋天。

And then there was, you know, a little bit of volatility, but then we've had this, you know, basically this epic rally from the lows going into the fall.

现在突然之间，《清晰法案》好像又有了生机，赔率从大概15%跳到了这周的将近30%，因为华盛顿那边一直在来回拉扯。

And now all of a sudden, the Clarity Act seems to have like a heartbeat of life, and the odds jumped from like, I think it was like 15% to almost thirty percent this week as we've been heading into some back and forth going in on DC.

但感觉这事儿因为道德问题还是过不去。

But it just feels like this thing's not gonna get across because of ethics.

这就是我看到的比较新的消息。

So that's kind of the the new news that I've seen.

《清晰法案》算是回来了，我不知道是不是坐到了前排，但可以说它又上车了，有的聊了。

Clarity Act kind of got back, I don't know if it was in the front seat, but we'll say it got back in the car, something to talk about.

那么，Hunter，你有什么关注的吗？或者你在意《清晰法案》吗？

So Hunter, anything that you're looking on or do you care about the Clarity Act?

这对你来说是不是已经过时了？

Is it kind of old news to you?

因为对我来说，这感觉就像是把我们在七月底、八月初做的事情整个又重来了一遍。

Because it, to me, it feels like it's it's a little bit of just this is a whole recycle of what we just did, end of July, early August.

而且我觉得这件事有点被明天的利率决定和今天Destin在众议院金融服务委员会的作证给盖过了。

And I think it's being overshadowed a bit by rates, the decisions tomorrow, and then Destin is testifying against the house financial services today.

感觉有很多事情在掩盖它，但对我来说，这反而可能带来一些意想不到的好处或者看涨的因素。

Seems like a lot of stuff to kind of overshadow it, which actually to me, I think there's gonna be some sort of backdoor, you know, beauty or bullishness from it somehow.

我觉得这事确实重要，但我整体的判断是，这要到2027年第一季度左右才会真正带来看涨的行情。

I think it, you know, matters, but my whole prognosis is this was gonna come kind of in 2027, around more of the the first quarter when we're when that's where the bullishness will come from.

我觉得这很大程度上只是法律上的猜测，还有立法程序上的问题，比如什么是终止辩论投票，真的。

I think, you know, this is a lot of just legal conjecture, just legislative what is a cloture vote, really?

我的意思是，你以前从来没听说过这个词，直到今天。而且这其实仍然是看涨的。

I mean, you've never heard of that until today, And it's really it's still bullish.

要知道，它已经在众议院通过了。

I mean, it's already passed the house.

大家都得记住这一点。

Everyone has to remember that.

其实我们就是想把它送到参议院去最终投票。

And really, we're just trying to get it to the senate to finally vote on.

如果真的是因为道德条款的问题，我觉得他们基本上已经把想要的稳定币和银行相关的内容都剔除了。

And if it's really just because of ethics provisions, you know, I think they've kind of already weeded out all of the stablecoin and banking stuff that they want from it.

所以对我来说，我觉得它还是挺重要的。

So I think, you know, for me, I think it's still important.

我只是觉得现在它被利率和油价这些事盖过了风头，而不是因为加密货币立法立场这种特殊风险。

I just think it's being a bit overshadowed right now with more of rate and oil stuff than it is just this kind of idiosyncratic risk from crypto legislative stance.

然后看起来，Brendan，当我们把话题交给你的时候，你刚在Slack上给我发了点东西。

And then it looks like, Brendan, as we pass it off to you, you just Slacked me something.

你看到什么更新了吗？

A little bit of an update you're seeing?

我们收到了一个更新。

We got an update from this.

这个应该是你的，我想是昨天或者今天早上到的。

So this would yours, I think, came in yesterday, maybe early this morning.

然后，大概三十分钟前，我们刚收到这个，看起来民主党又去找共和党，说我们想要屏幕上这些所有东西，然后被对方拒绝了。

And then, like, as of thirty minutes ago, we just got this, which is where it looks like the Democrats went back to the Republicans and said, we want all these things that are on the screen here, and then that was rejected by the other side.

所以看起来你们说得完全对，这确实主要不是道德问题，但似乎就是对于应该怎么做存在分歧，然后就这么来回拉锯。

So it looks like you guys are spot on with what you said is that it really does come down mostly not entirely to ethics, but there seems to be just a disagreement about what should happen here, and there's this back and forth.

我要说的是，好消息是这种来回拉锯进行得非常快。

I'll say the good news here is that this back and forth is happening pretty rapidly.

就像是有个提议，然后有个反提议，再对反提议来个反提议，再来一个反提议。

There's, like, an offer, a counteroffer, a counteroffer to that, a counteroffer.

我们看到这些提议被快速来回抛出，有时候每天一次，甚至一天好几次。

And we're seeing these get rapid fired back and forth sometimes every day, if not multiple times a day.

所以我觉得，这至少是个好迹象。

And so that has, I think, at least a good sign.

因为在这之前，反提议可能要等几个月才出现，然后他们再隔几周或几个月重新讨论。

Because prior to this, it'd be like a counteroffer would happen months later, and then they'd revisit it, know, a couple weeks or a couple months after that.

现在至少，你知道，仍然存在明显的分歧，这不是我们想看到的。

Now at least, you know, there's still clear disagreement, which is not what we wanna see.

但至少双方都在积极推动这件事。

But at least they're both working they're both actively working on this.

我觉得两边都有意愿让这个法案通过，所以才会看到这么多来回的快速回应和不同的反提案。

I think that there is a desire to get this passed from both sides, and I think that's why you're seeing such a rapid fire response back and forth with these different counteroffers.

这本身就是好事，因为这表明，嘿，

And that in and of itself is good because it's showing, hey.

我们想努力达成一致。

We want to try to come to an agreement on this.

问题就出在具体的分歧上。

It just comes down to the actual disagreement part.

所以关键在于他们能不能在某些问题上找到折中点。

So it's a matter of can they actually meet in the middle on some of these things?

我想这是很多人都想看到的。

And I think that's what a lot of us wanna see.

你知道，我之前也说过。

You know, I've said this before.

你知道，我们这里不谈政治。

You know, we don't get political over here.

双方都必须有让步和妥协。

There's there's gotta be give and take on both sides.

我觉得一方得让一步。

I think one side has gotta give some.

另一方也得让一步。

The other side has gotta give some.

双方都必须有让步和妥协。

There's gotta be give and take on both sides.

如果双方都不让步，那最终谁会吃亏呢？

And if it if there's not give and take from both sides, then, you know, who ultimately, you know, kinda suffers from that?

归根结底，是我们自己。

At all at the end of the day, it's us.

持有者、建设者，还有报道这件事的人。

The holders, the builders, the people who are reporting on this.

你知道，真正投入其中的人，可能才是这件事不通过时受影响最大的。

You know, the people who are actually invested in stuff were actually the ones who probably get hit the hardest from something like this not passing.

所以希望一切顺利，我们可以发起一个行动号召，就说，嘿，各位。

So fingers crossed here, we can kinda have a call to action to just say, hey, guys.

你们双方。

Both of you on both sides.

让我们走到一起。

Let's come together.

让我们在这里达成某种协议。

Let's come to some agreement here.

让我们互相让步，让这件事通过，因为如果它不尽快通过，情况看起来不太妙。

Let's give and take, and let's get this thing passed because it's not looking good if it doesn't get passed here pretty soon.

你明白吗？

You know?

然后它真的会推迟到明年，那就会引发其他问题，比如到时候可能更难通过。

Then it really starts to get pushed out in the next year, and then that raises other questions about maybe it being even harder to pass then.

是的，我的意思是，我们走着瞧吧。

And, yeah, I mean, we'll see.

而且，已经有很多人在参议院里为这件事忙活了一年多了。

And you've had a lot of people working this on this for over a year in the senate.

所以我知道，是的。

So I know Yeah.

参议员辛西娅·卢米斯是主要的推动者之一，她也在说，嘿。

Senator Cynthia Lumis, big proponent of kinda leading this, and and she's saying, hey.

现在是通过《清晰法案》的关键时刻，要么现在，要么永远不。

It's now or never for getting the Clarity Act passed.

所以，再说一次，我觉得我们之前已经讨论过这个了。

So, again, I think we went through this.

我实际上会把Polymarket的投注赔率调出来，因为那确实是个挺有意思的图表。

I'll pull up actually the poly market betting odds here because it's actually a pretty interesting chart.

如果你看一下，显然在过去一个月里，概率一直很低，然后这周突然又回升到了30%多。

If you just kind of, obviously in the last month, it's been, know, low chance here and then just randomly it popped back up this week into the thirties.

但如果你把时间范围拉长来看，基本上我们整年都在报道这个，你也看到了，概率一度降到四十多，然后又一路涨到八十二。

But if you go kind of screen out to all, like we we've been covering it all year, basically, and we've seen, you know, moves down to the forties, then all the way up into the the 82.

那是二月份的时候，差不多是最高点了，但一到夏天，情况就变得很糟了。

This was back in February and that was kind of its high point, but once the summer hit, I mean, that's pretty bad.

我这边有两位图表分析师。

I got my two chartists here.

从图表上看，《清晰法案》通过的概率可不太乐观。

That's not a good looking chart there for the odds of the Clarity Act.

所以我觉得，让人欣慰的是，这其实不算什么新消息。

So I think it's solace in the fact that I don't really think this is new news.

我们七月份就已经经历过这个过程了，而且现在也有人想推动制定规则。

We kind of already went through this process in July and and again, you have people in place that want to try and bring rules of the road.

显然，如果这个法案能通过，长期来看可能会更好，也会更快，但我不认为这对加密货币社区或整个行业来说是决定性的。

Obviously, it'd probably be better long term and and faster if this passed, but I don't think it's an end all be all for for for the community, for Crypto, for the industry.

但你肯定会看到更多的业务转移到海外来规避，你也知道，布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗就谈过这个。

But you'll definitely, you know, you'll see a lot more offshoring probably to to work around and, you know, you've seen Brian Armstrong talk about that.

Vlad和Robin Hood最近因为代币化股票之类的新闻经常上头条。

Vlad and Robin Hood have been in the news a lot with tokenized stocks, etcetera.

所以这真的很可惜，尤其是对那些为此努力付出的人。

So it's it's, you know, it's a shame, especially for all the people that worked hard on it.

但我也说不准。

But I don't know.

这件事我们会继续关注。

Something that will continue to cover.

那个

The

投票结果55分钟后出来。

votes in fifty five minutes.

你说什么，兄弟？

What's that, brother?

投票结果也是55分钟后出来。

The votes in fifty five minutes too.

这周要讲的东西很多，所以我们先看看今天的投票结果，然后明天会发生什么，因为距离联邦公开市场委员会会议只有一天三十八分钟三十秒了，各位。

Well, got a lot to cover this week, so we'll find out how the vote went today and then, what's gonna happen tomorrow as we have one day and thirty eight minutes and thirty seconds folks until the FOMC Meeting.

布伦丹，你提到了CME的图表。

Brendan, you brought up the CME chart here.

你想分析什么？

What did you wanna break down?

市场正在消化加息的可能性。

The market is pricing in a hike.

这是我们年初没想到的。

Something that we didn't see coming into the year.

所以变化很大。

So a a lot of changes there.

我觉得，你知道，我们现在面临很多催化剂，而这是人们担心的一个。

I think, you know, what we got here is a number of catalysts, and this is one of the ones that people are concerned about.

如果你回顾历史，看看加密货币在加息期间的表现，通常不是最有利的。

If you go back and look at how crypto has historically performed during hikes, it's it's not always the most favorable thing.