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你一直有个商业点子，但没行动。
You've been sitting on a business idea.
Shopify 就是让你把想法变成现实的地方。
Shopify is the place where you can actually make it real.
我喜欢 Shopify 的一点，就是它把创业初期的恐惧感给消除了。
The thing I like about Shopify is it takes the scary part out of starting.
你不用光坐着琢磨网站怎么搭、支付怎么设、结账流程怎么弄、库存怎么管——这些琐事往往让人还没开始就放弃了。
You're not just sitting there trying to figure out a website, payments, checkout, inventory, all these little things that stop people before they even launch.
我一想到开网店，最头疼的就是流程卡顿。
When I think about building a storefront, the biggest thing is friction.
你希望顾客一进来，看到你卖的东西就喜欢，然后能顺顺当当地买走，别中途卡住。
You want someone to land on your page, like what you're selling, and be able to buy without getting stuck.
这正是 Shopify 的强大之处。
That's where Shopify is huge.
Shopify 的结账系统专为提升成交率设计，顾客下次再来，信息都自动保存好了。
Shopify checkout is built to help more customers finish their purchase, and when they come back, their details are already saved.
点一下就完成了。
One tap and they're done.
厉害的是，Shopify 支撑着全球数百万家企业，从你熟知的大品牌如美泰和 Gymshark，到刚刚起步的小生意都包括在内。
The cool part is Shopify powers millions of businesses worldwide from huge brands that you know, like Mattel and Gymshark to small businesses just getting started.
不管你是在打造下一个大品牌，还是第一次推出产品，底层设施都已经准备好了。
So whether you're building the next big brand or launching your first product, the infrastructure is already there.
一旦这些基础问题解决了，你就能专心做真正重要的事——打造品牌、吸引关注，把人引到你的店铺，让生意慢慢成长。
Once that part is handled, you can focus on the real work, building the brand, getting attention, and bringing people to your storefront so the business can grow.
当有人真正下单的那一刻，你的想法才真正变成了现实。
That moment when someone actually buys, that's when the idea becomes real.
有了 Shopify，再没有什么能阻挡你的想法变成一家真正的公司，赶紧去把它实现吧。
With Shopify, nothing stands between your idea and a real business, so go make it one.
今天就去 shopify.com/crypto10one 开始你的免费试用。
Start your free trial today at shopify.com/crypto10one.
免费试用就在 shopify.com/crypto10one。
That's a free trial at shopify.com/crypto10one.
我喜欢夏天的一点是，一切都变得越来越轻松了。
One thing I love about summer is everything's just getting easier.
你待在外面的时间更多了。
You're outside more.
你开始度假了，这时候根本不用费劲去搭配每一套衣服。
You're taking vacations, and it's the time where you're really not trying to overthink every outfit.
你只想要舒服、好穿，偶尔还带点酷感的东西。
You just want stuff that feels good, works, and sometimes is a little cool.
所以我一直回头选Quince。
That's why I keep coming back to Quince.
他们做的那些衣服，一整个夏天你都会不停地穿。
They make those pieces that you end up just wearing all season.
对我来说，就是那件100%欧洲亚麻衬衫和配套的亚麻长裤。
For me, it's the 100% European linen shirt and the matching linen pants.
这已经成了我度假时的标配造型。
That has become one of my go to beach vacation outfits.
好多人夸我这件衣服。
I've gotten so many compliments on it.
透气性特别好。
It's breathable.
穿起来特别舒服。
It's comfortable.
看起来挺有型，但又不紧绷，很放松。
It looks put together, but it still feels relaxed.
你完全可以穿着它一整天待在海滩，傍晚沿着海边散步看日落，然后直接去吃晚饭，既舒服又时髦。
You can literally wear this thing going to the beach all day, walking by the water for a sunset, and then head straight to dinner later feeling completely comfortable and looking fashionable.
这正是Quince最擅长的地方。
And that's really what Quince does well.
他们的纯欧洲亚麻裤子和衬衫穿起来特别轻松，夏天穿再合适不过，价格还特别惊人。
They're 100 European linen pants and shirts are easy to wear, perfect for summer, and the price is unbelievable.
最低只要34美元。
And they start at literally just $34.
他们还有柔软的T恤，整天穿都舒服，再加上轻薄的棉质毛衣，晚上温度稍降时穿正好。
They also have soft tees you can wear all day plus lightweight cotton sweaters that are perfect for when the temperature drops a little at night.
Quince的所有商品价格都比同类品牌低百分之五十到八十。
Everything at Quince is priced 50 to 80% less than similar brands.
他们直接与道德工厂合作，省去中间商，所以你付的钱买的是高品质，而不是品牌溢价。
They work directly with ethical factories and cut out the middleman, so you're paying for exceptional quality, not the brand markup.
而且他们卖的不只是衣服。
And it's not just clothing.
Quince已经成了人们信赖的品牌，不仅买衣服，连家居、旅行和日常用品也选他们。
Quince has become one of those brands people trust for home, travel, and everyday essentials too.
你以前听过我聊过他们的网站。
You've heard me talk about their website before.
在上面逛起来特别有意思。
It's super fun to scroll around.
他们真的什么都有。
They literally have everything.
让这个夏天的衣橱更简单些。
So make your summer wardrobe easier.
去 quince.com/crypto101 下单，享受免运费，现在加拿大也支持365天无理由退换。
Go to quince.com/crypto101 for free shipping on your order and 365 returns now available in Canada too.
就是 quince.com/crypto101，免运费，365天退换。
That's quince.com/crypto101 for free shipping and three hundred sixty five day returns.
quince.com/crypto10one。
Quince.com/crypto10one.
好了，各位。
Alright, everybody.
欢迎回来，继续收听周五的加密资讯速报。
Welcome back to a Friday edition of the crypto rundown.
全球市场最近波动挺大的。
There's a lot of volatility in the markets around the world.
芯片板块好像有点撑不住了。
The chip trade seems to be falling apart.
韩国市场最近波动特别剧烈，我们待会儿聊聊这个。
There is some crazy volatility in Korea that we're gonna talk about.
那这对加密货币有什么影响呢？
But how is this affecting crypto?
这对比特币又意味着什么？
How is this affecting Bitcoin?
其实没你想象的那么剧烈，不过我们请来了两位图表专家，来给大家详细分析一下。
It's not as volatile as you might think, but we have our two chartists here to break it all down.
这位是布伦丹。
We've got Brendan.
这位是亨特。
We've got Hunter.
今天周五的节目内容非常精彩，绝对值得一看。
We've got an awesome Friday program scheduled for you.
马上进入图表分析，但还有大量其他新闻要更新，你可千万别走开。
We're gonna jump right into the charts in just one second, but a ton of other news to cover, so you're gonna wanna stick away.
想了解具体聊了哪些话题？可以看下方的时间戳，全部或者部分都行。
Check the time stamps below to see what the topics if you're interested in all of them, some of them.
感谢你的观看。
We appreciate you being here.
觉得不错的话，点个赞吧。
Give it a like.
如果是新来的朋友，右下角点一下订阅。
If you're new here, bottom right, hit subscribe.
Brendan，咱们直接切入图表吧。
And, Brendan, let's dive right into the charts.
周五快乐，老兄。
Happy Friday, my friend.
周五快乐，兄弟。
Happy Friday, man.
很高兴你们两位今天一起来参加。
Good to have both of on here with us.
很高兴看到这么多观众在线。
Good to have everyone in the audience.
这里确实发生了很多事。
Definitely a lot going on here.
对吧？
Right?
整个市场波动非常大。
Tons of volatility across the market.
我们马上来细说。
We'll get into it.
最近几天，市场上下震荡，主要还是受几个关键因素推动。
But really a couple lead catalysts here that are that's really propelling us, right, back and forth a little bit to the downside here in the last couple of days.
不过这些我们待会儿再聊。
But we'll get into that.
不如我们先打开图表，我一边看一边讲讲这些驱动因素，我觉得搞清楚它们很重要。
In fact, let's just open up the charts here as I maybe walk through even some of these catalysts because I think it's important to understand these.
我们先来看看比特币，现在到底发生了什么。
So let's look at Bitcoin first here and really what's going on.
因为从比特币这里我们看到，
Because what we see here with Mr.
过去这一周左右，价格一直在横盘整理，这张日线图是我们最常看的。
Bitcoin is we chopped sideways really for the last week or so, and this is that daily chart that we like to to really look at.
但在最近一波上涨之后，价格就开始来回震荡，反复拉锯。
But we chopped sideways after this most recent move to the upside, and we just went back and forth and back and forth and back and forth.
我们一度稍微突破了50日均线，但很快又回落下来。
We peaked our head over that fifty day moving average just a little bit, and then we fell back down in here.
你现在看到这个走势，可能觉得：这行情也太震荡了吧。
Now you're looking at this and probably going, well, you know, this looks pretty choppy.
到底是什么原因导致这样？
Like, what's the cause for this?
这周初，价格其实是在往下走的。
Well, at the start of the week, we basically were coming down here.
公布了不错的通胀数据，CPI和PPI都远低于预期，我们待会儿细说。
Good inflation data came out, and we'll get into that Pretty drastically lower than expected CPI and PPI.
消息一出，市场立刻就涨了起来。
And then so the markets here started pumping on that news.
我们会解释一下背后的推动因素，这些数据到底意味着什么，为什么通胀数据会影响加密市场。
And we'll explain kind of the catalyst and and what that means and why inflation data and, you know, all these things even mean anything to the crypto market.
不过，就在这波上涨之后，市场又慢慢回落了。
But, you know, following kind of this move up, we saw the markets continuing to bleed back to the downside here.
我觉得现在主要有三个推动因素，其实两个最关键。
Now, again, I think there's three catalysts or really two big ones.
一个是通胀数据，另一个是传统金融市场的动向。
You have the inflation data, and then you have what's happening over in TradFi as well.
传统金融市场最近一直被打压，而加密市场在此之前其实表现得更好一点。
Now the TradFi markets here have been getting peppered, and crypto was actually outperforming kinda leading up into this.
但只是稍微好一点。
But just a little bit.
我是说最近的数据。
You know, I'm talking about recent data.
但你看，过去三四天纳斯达克一路暴跌，而巧合的是，比特币也正是从这时候开始下跌的。
But here you have Nasdaq just getting hammered here on the last three or so days, which coincidentally is when Bitcoin really started falling.
对吧？
Right?
就是最近这三天。
The last three days.
纳斯达克当天冲到高点后，又跌了1.5%。
So you saw Nasdaq kind of peak up to its high of day, fall another 1.5%.
第二天，它继续跌了2.5%。
The following day after that, it fell another 2.5%.
今天又跌了将近3%。
Today, it fell another two, almost 3% to the downside.
所以，整个风险资产都在明显回撤。
And so you are seeing risk assets across the board really start to come back in a little bit here.
这其中一个原因，抱歉，让场面有点失控了。
And that's one of the causes that, excuse me, is causing a bit of the sorry, guys.
我嗓子有点不舒服。
Frog in my throat.
加密市场这次的小幅抛售，其实是因为市场在整体去风险化。
A little bit of a sell off here in the crypto market is because you're just seeing it derisking.
直到前一两天，你明显看到三大领域都在大幅下跌。
Now up until, I would say, the last two one to two days, what you really saw heavily was three major spaces selling off.
你看到DRAM内存板块在跌。
You saw the memory space in DRAM.
你看到芯片板块在跌。
You saw the chip space.
还有第三块，就是那些AI概念股。
And then three, you saw those AI players.
你明显看到这些曾经热得发烫的板块也开始回调了。
And you really started to see those areas which were extremely hot.
它们把其他领域的资金都吸走了，感觉钱从所有地方涌向了这些领域。
They were sucking liquidity away from other areas of the market, and it felt like money was flowing out of everything and into those.
在过去一段时间里，这些领域的东西简直涨得飞快。
And everything in those spaces were just going parabolic for the last, you know, little while here.
但现在我们开始看到情况反过来发生了。
Now what we've started to see is a little bit of the opposite happen.
这些热门板块开始大幅回调，而其他板块则略有反弹，待会儿我会详细说说。
You started to see those areas specifically get hit while other areas have somewhat kind of recovered, and we'll get into those.
不过简单说一下，你看纳斯达克现在正在下跌，而且跌到了一个关键点位。
But just briefly to show this, you know, that's Nasdaq kind of falling here and reaching a a big old important point.
再看DRAM，就是我之前提到的内存板块，简直崩盘了，从高点跌了40%。
Then you look at things like DRAM, which is the memory space that I've talked about, an absolute free fall, you know, falling 40% off of its highs.
你甚至能发现，不只是DRAM和科技股，其他一些AI相关的标的也在遭受重创。
You could go and you could see I would say, you know, even different areas beyond just like DRAM and tech, you could probably go and see some of these other, like, AI plays, again, just getting hammered.
你还能看到AMD，也从高点明显回落了。
You could probably see AMD, you know, off the highs as well falling here.
所以，之前那些特别火热、吸走市场流动性的科技板块，现在恰恰成了重灾区。
And so, again, those areas of tech that were really, really hot and sucking liquidity away from the market, those are the ones that were getting hammered.
而你现在看到的是，加密市场反而有了一点反弹，或者说是曾经反弹过。
And now what you see is the crypto space actually getting a little bit of a bump, or it was.
那问题就来了：既然情况是这样，为什么加密市场又重新回暖了呢？
So now the question is, well, if that was the case, why is crypto, you coming back in here?
这其实还是回到我之前说的那句话：现在所有的风险资产都在变得谨慎。
And it goes back to the original statement that I made, which is just that risk assets across the board now are kind of getting a little bit scared.
大家看到各种资产都在下跌，那些原本想冒险投资的人，也开始退缩了。
They're seeing how everything's falling, and you have these investors who want to be more risk on really kind of step away a little bit.
这些人就说，算了，先把钱放在一边观望吧。
And those are the people who are saying, you know, let's just put our money on the sidelines.
等局势明朗一点再说。
Let's see how this plays out.
等事情有了新动向，我们再进场。
And then after something like that, we'll come back in.
所以，当我们看PPI和CPI数据时，这些数据对加密货币很重要，因为历史上，当市场预期降息时，加密货币表现都很好；而一旦预期加息，加密货币就往往表现不佳。
And so if we get into these PPI and CPI numbers, the reason why these matter to crypto is because as you have the markets trying to price in what's gonna happen with rate cuts, you have the crypto space, which has historically performed really good when the market wants to cut rates, And then you have the crypto market not performing great when there are rate hikes on the horizon.
我们看到这次CPI数据是3.5%，低于预期的3.8%。
And so what we saw here was this was the CPI number coming in at at 3.5% below the 3.8% expected.
核心通胀降到了2.6%，低于预期的2.8%。
Core fell to, you know, to 2.6 below the 2.8 expected.
月度CPI下降到了零点四%，这是自2020年5月以来最大的单月跌幅。
And month over month CPI fell to zero point or negative 0.4%, which is the biggest monthly drop that we've seen since May 2020.
PPI是另一种衡量通胀的方式，这次降到5.5%，低于预期的6.2%；核心PPI降到4.7%，低于预期的5.2%，月度也跌到了负0.3%。
PPI, which is basically a different form of measuring inflation, but you have this falling to 5.5 versus the 6.2 expected, core falling to 4.7 versus the 5.2 expected, and then month over month falling to negative 0.3.
那为什么这个数据这么重要？我刚才在屏幕上放了，但好像没显示出来？
So why does this and I don't do I have that on the screen?
你们能看到吗？
Can you guys see that?
看不到。
No.
我看到基点了。
I see base points.
看到了吗？
See that.
好的。
Okay.
咱们已经讲过这些数据了，其实也没那么重要。
Let's just I guess, you know, we went over the numbers, so it's not a big deal.
不过咱们再试一次，看看你们能不能看清这个。
But let's try this one more time and see if you guys can't see this.
不过，这些数字我只是顺带提一下，好让大家有个直观的印象。
But, yeah, I mean, these are just those numbers that I was referencing just to give everyone a little bit of a graphic to kind of match this stuff too.
那个是CPI，这个是PPI的数据。
That was the CPI, and then that was the PPI numbers.
但我认为接下来咱们得重点关注这个。
But I think that's gonna be a big thing to kinda keep an eye out on here.
因为如果通胀持续回落，降息的可能性就会上升，而这正是加密市场最青睐的市场环境。
Because if you continue to see inflation lowering that increases the chance for rate cuts, it's and that's really the kind of market conditions that the crypto space likes.
但如果你看到数据又往反方向走，那恐怕市场会有些动荡。
And if you start seeing it go back in the other direction, then, you know, there's probably some turbulence here.
所以从图表上看，我们最关注的是，比特币能不能真正突破六万美元这个关口？
So on the charts here, I think the big thing we're watching out for is, can Bitcoin really peek its head through this mid $60,000 level?
这才是大家最关心的问题。
Like, that's the thing that every everyone wants to care about here.
比特币能不能冲过这个阻力位，开始创出新的高点？
Can Bitcoin get over this hump, start pushing the higher highs?
因为从去年十月以来，比特币一直在反复创下更低的高点，一次又一次，没完没了。
Because really since last October on Bitcoin, you've had just lower highs, lower highs, lower highs, lower highs over and over and over again.
比特币一直没能突破200日均线，每次想往上冲，都被狠狠压下来。
Bitcoin has been unable to break above that two hundred day moving average, and it's just been getting clobbered at every attempt to the upside that it's had.
所以，要判断走势是否反转，关键就是看能不能真正突破，走出更高的高点。
So the big thing that we need to watch for a reversal here is can we actually break out in the higher highs?
很明显，我们在这里看到了一个底部，就在五万八到六万美元之间。
Obviously, we found a little bit of a bottom here right around the high 50 thousands, low 60 thousands.
接下来真正关键的问题是，我们能不能守住这些低点，然后真正发起上攻？
Now the next real question is, can we hold those lows, and can we actually attack the upside?
我觉得这正是我们现在需要耐心观察的关键所在。
And I think that's the big thing that we need to kind of wait and and watch out for here.
另外，50日均线，就是这条粉红色或偏红的线，现在正好就在我们当前位置附近，而那条蓝色线是20日均线。
The other thing is that the 50 moving average, this kind of pink or reddish line, is right around where we're at, but you also have the blue line, which is the twenty day moving average.
所以目前20日和50日均线几乎紧紧贴在一起。
So the twenty and fifty day moving averages here, right almost side by side.
如果20日均线向上突破50日均线，这就叫金叉。
And if you get the twenty day crossing up over the fifty day, that's called a golden cross.
如果出现金叉，而且价格随后稳稳站在金叉上方，还能以它为支撑反弹继续上行，那对多头来说就是非常积极的信号。
And if you can get a scenario where you have a golden cross and then price action trading above that golden cross and bouncing off of it as support and going further to the upside, it's a really good look for the bulls.
所以如果真出现这种情况，这也是我们接下来要重点关注的。
And so I think that's another thing that we would wanna keep an eye out on should that be the case.
所以这里的关键是。
So big story here.
到底底部已经确认了吗？
You know, is there an absolute bottom in yet?
我们现在有确凿的数据了吗？
Do we have that data yet?
还没有。
We still don't.
下行风险依然存在。
There's still some downside risk.
我觉得现在最大的担忧，是传统市场那边会发生什么，整体风险资产会怎么反应。
Again, I think right now, the big fear is what's gonna happen over on the traditional side, how our risk assets as a whole going to respond.
但抛开传统金融的风险不谈，加密货币的情况其实没那么糟。
But I would say outside of that TradFi risk, crypto doesn't look quite as bad.
之前，在传统金融市场、股票和指数暴跌之前，比特币的表现其实还挺好的。
Again, really, before you had the traditional financial side and the equities and the indices really start to fall off a cliff, you had Bitcoin doing well.
我的意思是，它之前一直在上涨。
I mean, it was pushing higher.
它一直在尝试突破五十日均线。
It was trying to break out of the fifty day moving average.
它试图冲破前期高点，做了不少这样的动作。
It was trying to break through highs, and it was doing a lot of that stuff.
直到你开始看到走势出现反转，卖压才重新回来。
And it wasn't until you started to see a little bit of a rollover that the selling pressure started to come back in.
所以。
So
你知道什么最拖慢团队进度吗？
You know what slows teams down more than anything?
不一定是人手、预算，甚至也不是工具本身。
It's not always headcount budget or even the tools themselves.
而是当工作的方式只存在于某个人脑子里，从没被记录下来的时候。
It's when the way work gets done lives in someone's head and never actually gets documented.
一旦有新人加入、新系统上线，或者同事离职，大家就会各自用不同的方式做同样的事。
Then someone new joins, a new platform gets rolled out, or a teammate leaves, and suddenly everyone's doing the same process in a different way.
今天赞助我们的Scribe，正是为了解决这个问题而设计的。
That's exactly the problem today's sponsor, Scribe, was built to solve.
Scribe是一个工作流AI平台，能实时捕捉任何工作流程，并自动生成分步骤的文档。
Scribe is a workflow AI platform that captures any workflow in real time and turns it into a step by step documentation automatically.
你只要打开浏览器插件，像往常一样操作流程，Scribe就会自动记录每一次点击、每个步骤和截图。
You just turn on the extension, do the process like you normally would, and Scribe builds the guide as you go, capturing every click, step, and screenshot.
它已经获得超过八万家企业的信赖，其中包括近一半的财富500强公司。
And it's already trusted by over 80,000 enterprises, including nearly half of the Fortune 500.
我们团队是远程办公，我确实多次不得不反复向同事解释同样的设置或流程，每次都觉得这事早该写下来才对。
With our team being remote, I have definitely had moments where I've had to explain the same setup or process more than once to a colleague, and it always feels like something that should have been documented the first time.
用Scribe，原本要花几个小时写文档、截屏、整理的工作，一分钟内就能准备好分享。
With Scribe, what could take hours of writing, screenshots, and cleanup can be ready to share in under a minute.
Scribe还会自动屏蔽截图中的敏感信息，比如姓名、邮箱和账号号码。
Scribe also automatically redacts sensitive information like names, emails, and account numbers from screenshots.
管理员可以统一强制执行，确保每个环节都不被遗漏。
Admins can enforce that across the team so nothing slips through the cracks.
此外，任何使用这个流程的人，都能实时看到屏幕上的指引，清楚知道该在哪个地方点击。
Plus, anyone following the process can get real time on screen guidance showing exactly where to click inside the actual tool.
Scribe 不只是记录工作流程。
And Scribe doesn't just document workflows.
它还能利用人工智能提出优化建议，帮你发现重复的步骤、瓶颈以及可以简化的地方。
It uses AI to suggest ways to improve them, helping you spot redundant steps, bottlenecks, and places to simplify.
要预约个性化的企业演示，请访问 scribe.how/crypto10one。
To book a personalized enterprise demo, visit scribe.how/crypto10one.
网址是 scribe.how/crypto10one。
That's scribe.how/crypto10one.
你有没有好奇过，哪些经济力量在影响着你的日常生活？
Are you curious about the economic forces shaping your daily life?
NPR 的《Planet Money》播客，会用你真正听得懂、也感兴趣的方式，帮你理清经济的来龙去脉。
The Planet Money podcast from NPR makes sense of the economy in ways you'll actually understand and enjoy.
大家都知道你们特别喜欢听这些简报。
Guys, you love listening to the rundowns.
我有些信息就是从NPR的《Planet Money》播客来的，尤其是最近战争爆发、霍尔木兹海峡那边的事。
I get some of that information from this NPR Planet Money podcast, especially recently with the war going on, the Strait Of Hormuz.
你们就是能及时收到他们发来的最新动态。
You're just kinda getting those updates as they come from these guys.
他们出了好多特别棒的内容。
They put out a ton of awesome content.
虽然和《Crypto 101》的角度不一样，但听上去依然很精彩。
It's a different perspective from Crypto one zero one, but still a great listen.
如果你们对时事和金融世界感兴趣，不妨去听听《Planet Money》。
So go over there and check out the Planet Money podcast if stuff like current events and the finance world interest you.
《Planet Money》每期故事都从一个问题开始。
Each story on Planet Money starts with a question.
最近一期就问了：为什么宝可梦卡牌的升值速度比你的退休金还快。
Recent episodes ask why Pokemon cards are growing faster than your retirement count.
关于战争的问题，就像我们最近在节目里聊得很多的那样。
Questions about the war, just like we talked about recently a lot on our program.
从就业市场到股市，再到超市里的物价。
From the job market to the stock market to prices at the supermarket.
Planet Money 把这一切都讲得清清楚楚。
Planet Money explains it all.
在这个不一样的世界里，复杂的经济居然变得容易懂了，人的故事比抽象理论更重要，让你边学边笑边享受。
Planet Money is a different kind of world where the complex economy somehow makes sense, where human stories supersede abstract theories so you can learn, laugh, and be entertained.
这是经济学，但接地气得很。
It's econ, but just down to earth.
主持人为了讲清楚经济，简直不遗余力。
The hosts go to unusual lengths to explain the economy.
他们还出了一本书，专门追踪全球供应链。
They've published their own book to track the global supply chain.
他们甚至发射了一颗卫星上天，只为搞懂私营航天业的经济逻辑。
They've shot a satellite into space to understand the economics of the private space industry.
他们甚至潜入了一场现场图书拍卖，来展示创意是如何进入市场的。
They've gone inside a live book auction to show how ideas get to market.
这档节目就是这样，你不仅能学到东西，大概还会笑出声，听完后看世界的眼光都不一样了。
It's the kind of show where you learn something, probably laugh, and walk away seeing the world a little differently.
如果你喜欢《加密货币入门》，那你也一定会喜欢《Planet Money》。
And I think if you like Crypto one zero one, you'll enjoy Planet Money.
不妨去听一听。
So maybe check that out.
关注NPR的《Planet Money》播客，了解金钱如何塑造这个世界。
Follow NPR's Planet Money podcast and understand how money shapes the world.
以一种挺有趣的方式。
In funny way Yeah.
它又把老生常谈的加密货币说法给拉了回来：比特币和加密货币总是领涨市场。
It kinda brings back onto the table that old lore of crypto saying, hey, Bitcoin and crypto lead the market.
你看，比特币又创了新高。
It's like, oh, Bitcoin hit an all time high.
纳斯达克和标普500紧随其后。
The Nasdaq, the S and P is gonna be right behind it.
我们那时候差不多跟着涨了两年。
And we were kinda riding that for two, you know, a year, two years.
很多人都在这么说。
People a lot of people were saying it.
这话题挺有意思的。
It was a fun talking point.
后来比特币突然暴跌，但记忆交易和其他东西还在继续涨。
And then Bitcoin fell off a cliff and obviously the memory trade and everything else kept going.
于是大家就说，哎，那套说法好像不成立了。
And so it was like, oh, well that that, you know, that lore doesn't hold anymore.
其实不是这样的。
That's not true.
再说，根本没什么实际研究支持这说法，但确实是个挺吸引人的谈资。
Again, there's there's no factual actual factual like study behind it, but it was an interesting talking point.
然后比特币跌了，但内存交易却继续上涨。
And then Bitcoin fell and the memory trade kept going.
现在我们看到的情况，就像你刚才展示的图表那样，亨特，接下来轮到你了，如果你愿意的话，让布兰登把你那张图调出来。
And now we're kind of seeing like you you showed here with your charts and Hunter, let's get to you next with your charts if you wanna let Brandon, if you wanna let Hunter pull up his.
比特币之前带头下行，如果现在它在这里企稳，波动性还比标普和纳斯达克更低，尤其是内存交易这一块，结合你看到的那些均线开始上翘，这会不会又成了一个值得讨论的话题？
It is like, hey, as Bitcoin kind of led the way down and if it holds here at least with less volatility than the S and P, the Nasdaq, and specifically this memory trade, is it kind of a fun talking point maybe to bring back as you kind of noticed with those moving averages kind of curling up.
是的。
Yeah.
这确实是个有意思的观点。
It is an interesting point.
亨特，说说你的分析，你的图表怎么说？
So Hunter, take us through your wisdom, your charts.
你同意布兰登的看法吗？
Do you agree with Brendan?
你不同意吗？
Do you disagree?
这正是关键所在，讨论和理解不同的观点嘛。
That that's what it's all about, you know, discourse and understanding, you know, different opinions.
接下来交给你了，Hunter。
Let's hand it off to you, Hunter.
对。
Yeah.
我正好有个图表能很好说明比特币和纳斯达克之间的关系，这其实反映了资金轮动的模式。
Well, I actually have a great segue chart for that relationship of Bitcoin related to the Nasdaq, which means rotation style trading here.
这是比特币对纳斯达克的比率，比特币在分子，纳斯达克在分母。
We've got the Bitcoin relative to the Nasdaq, so Bitcoin on the numerator, Nasdaq on the denominator.
你看过去九年这个关系的变化，现在正触及多年来的最低点，就是这条趋势线。
And you can see this relationship over the last nine years, and we're hitting multi multiyear lows, this trend line right here.
每次比特币相对于纳斯达克表现严重低估的时候，往往都是加密周期转折的标志。
And each time we've hit this relationship where Bitcoin was very undervalued relative to Nasdaq performance wise, those were the marks of the turns in the crypto cycle.
而我们现在，正好就在重现这个信号。
And we're seeing that signature right now.
这种情况可能持续几周甚至几个月，就像2022年那样，但我们现在看到的正是这种信号——价格下探到趋势线附近，这周已经出现了一些明显的动向。
Now it can play out for several weeks, several months as it did over here in 2022, but we're seeing that signature, that kind of wick down onto the trend line and we're getting some good movement this week.
所以目前来看，比特币表现相当强劲，单从这张图就能看出，资金似乎正在回流到最具风险偏好的资产——也就是比特币。
So I'm saying right now, Bitcoin is looking pretty buoyant, and it does look like there is a bit of a rotation back into the leading risk on asset, which is Bitcoin, just by looking at this chart alone.
不过这只是其中一张图。
Now this is just one chart.
这只是一个数据点，但值得留意，因为它呈现出典型的更高高点、更高低点、更高高点、更高低点的走势。
This is one data point, but it's just something to be interested that we're interested in because it is somewhat of a higher high, higher low, higher high, higher low.
市场的结构正在朝这个方向转变。
The market structure is shifting like that.
所以我特别关注这张图。
So I this chart.
它清晰地展现了资金开始轮动时的典型画面。
It really paints a really pretty picture of when capital starts to rotate.
接下来我们会持续关注这个走势，但至少从纳斯达克的表现来看，比特币已经开始展现出更强的势头。
So we'll be monitoring this going forward, but it does look like Bitcoin is starting to outperform, at least the traditional markets when it comes to NASDAQ.
但单看比特币的长期走势，现货比特币现在在这里反弹，原因就在这儿。
But looking high timeframe just on Bitcoin alone, Bitcoin spot, well, this is why we're bouncing right here.
好几个关键价位正逐渐汇聚在一起。
We've got multiple levels that are starting to come and coalesce.
我们不仅有一条漂亮的线性趋势线作为支撑，还有200周均线——几周前我们确实跌破过，但现在已经重新站了回来。
Not only do we just have a wonderful linear trend line that we're bouncing off of, we have the two hundred week moving average, which we actually closed below a few weeks ago but reclaimed it.
这种假突破后又回升的情况，通常都是看涨信号。
So that's usually a bullish sign where you kinda have that fake out and then you come back above.
这周我们得守住这个位置，才能继续向上冲向50周均线，目标直指我目前重点关注的7万美元附近。
We're really gonna wanna try to hold above it this week so we can kinda get continuation up towards that fifty week moving average towards around the 70,000 level that I'm really eyeing right now.
但在那之前，我们还不能完全确认。
But until then, we don't have full confirmation.
还需要再多一点数据来佐证。
We still need a little bit more data.
不过，如果我们再结合从15020.22美元周期低点算起的成交量加权平均价，你猜最近我们是在哪儿反弹的？
But nonetheless, if we also take our anchored volume weighted average price from the $15,020.22 cycle low, well, lo and behold, where did we bounce most recently?
就从这个位置反弹回来。
Right off that level.
这是个关键水平，因为它清楚地显示了所有交易量的平均分布点，从成交量加权的角度看，这就是市场共识的价格。
And that's a huge level because that pretty much shows you where all the volume averages out, where all participants, where they've traded from a volume weighted perspective, that is the price.
这其实就是公允价值的位置。
So that's like a fair value price.
这是一种看待公允价值的方式。
It's one way to look at fair value.
你当然也可以用链上其他指标来衡量公允价值，但这是传统技术分析师常用的方法。
Now you can look at different on chain metrics as well for fair value measures, but this is a traditional technical analyst view of looking at some fair value.
我们正是从这个位置反弹的。
We bounce right off that.
另外，如果我们从2022年的周期低点画到当前的历史高点12.6万美元，再用斐波那契回撤工具标出0.618这个黄金比例位。
On top of that, if we take a fib retracement tool from the cycle low in 2022 to our current all time high at 126 ks and we come and we put out the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, which is the golden ratio.
这本质上是个数学关系。
So it's a mathematical thing.
那个水平是在哪儿？
Well, where was that level?
就在57。
It was at 57.
我给你们把字体调大一点。
I'll make this a little bit bigger for you guys font wise.
是五万七千八百。
It was at fifty seven eight hundred.
我们这儿反弹点在哪？
Where do we bounce right here?
看，所有这些因素都集中在这儿了。
Look at all these variables coalescing right here.
这个币对的低点是五万七千七百，差一点就到六万了。
That low on the coin based pair was 57,700, so just south of a $100 missed.
所以你能看到，我们现在正处在非常关键的节点上。
And so you can see that we're at a very pivotal pivotal point right here.
我想重点跟你们说的是这一点。
And here's what I wanna kind of press upon you.
当我们碰到这种大周期的关键水平时，很多人会开始觉得看空情绪来了，但这些水平本身规模很大。
When we get to these big high time frame levels, what happens is a lot of people, they they start feeling the bearish sentiment and all that, but these are big levels.
过去四年里这种情况反复出现，但我们一直没触及到这些位置。
This has happened over the last four years, and we haven't touched them yet.
所以一旦价格走到这些关键点，至少我们可以期待一点回调或反弹，这完全说得通。
So when we get to those points, we can at least expect a bit of reprieve or a bit of a bounce, and so it's warranted.
我的意思是，我们之前连续下跌了两个月。
I mean, we were going down for two months.
自从创出历史新高以来，我们已经下跌了大约九个月，不过今年早些时候有过一次持续三个月的反弹。
We've been going down for about nine months since the all time high, and we had, you know, a rally earlier this year for about three months.
所以现在出现一点反弹，其实并不意外。
So it's not really that random that we're bouncing here a bit.
当然，我们还没彻底脱险，这点很清楚。
Now, of course, we're not out of the woodworks, of course.
在低时间框架上，我们仍然处于一个区间内，可以用一组平行通道来清晰地显示出来。
We're still in a bit of a range on the low time frame that we can just kind of use a parallel channel to to show.
如果我画出来，你会发现价格就在这个区间里来回震荡。
If I make this, And you can see we're just kind of ranging.
目前价格正好处在区间中间的位置。
We're at the midpoint of that range right now.
均线正在逐渐收窄，说明眼下并没有明确的趋势。
The moving averages are kind of tightening up, so there isn't a trend at the moment.
这纯粹就是一个震荡行情。
It's just a range environment.
对付震荡行情的老办法就是：在区间内高抛低吸，直到突破为止。
And the old adage for a range is trade the range until it breaks.
所以我们关注区间的上沿。
So we'll be looking at the top side of the range.
同时也会留意区间的下沿。
We'll be looking towards the bottom side of the range.
在我们重新站上之前高点67到68并回踩确认之前，市场仍然处于长期空头趋势。但一旦出现这种情况，就是短期到中期企稳的首个信号，价格有可能向上冲击7万关口。
And until we get a trending environment to where we move back up above our prior high right here, 67, 68 and retest, well, we're still in a bearish trend long term, but that would be our first sign of strength on the short to medium term to where we could at least connect up here towards 70 ks.
接下来快速总结一下比特币，我来具体说明我们为什么在这里遇到阻力。
Now just to wrap up Bitcoin here real quick, I'll show you exactly why we're resisting where we are.
如果我们从二月价格启动开始，把整个这段行情的成交量分布画出来，就能清楚看到，我们现在正逼近这个区域。
If we take our volume profile from the beginning of the February price action to where we are now, this whole range, you can see we're coming up right.
今年六月中旬，价格在成交量最高的位置被拒绝了。
We rejected at the point of control back in the middle of June.
这个位置非常关键。
It's a very, very important level.
现在我们来到了成交量谷底，也就是成交量分布图上的这条橙色线。
And then now we're at the valuerate low, which is this orange line on the volume profile histogram.
你可以看到，这个区间目前构成了明显的阻力。
And you can see that this range right here is resistance.
我们目前可能在尝试形成一个新的更低的高点，但如果没能形成，反而是强势的信号，因为这里积累了大量的成交单。
And right now we're trying to make maybe another lower high, but if we don't, then that would be our first sign of strength because there's a lot of volume that transpired here.
如果你能突破这个位置，那就说明多头开始掌握主动权了。
So if you get above that, then that means bulls are starting to take control.
目前来看，空头还是占主导地位。
At the moment, the bears have been in control.
不过，我们已经触及了一个关键水平。
Nonetheless though, we hit a massive level.
很容易再跌回去，测试一下六万美元，形成一个更高的低点，然后继续上涨。
We can easily just come back below this and hit this, you know, retest 60,000, make a higher low and continue up.
这种情况的可能性其实很大。
You know, that is a very big possibility.
我们得按这个思路来操作，但时间拖得越久，市场越容易让人放松警惕，向上突破的风险反而越大。
We have to play it that way, but the longer it sits down here, the longer it kind of lulls everybody to sleep, the more dangerous it gets to the upside.
真正的不对称机会，会在上方出现。
The asymmetric rest will be to the upside.
所以我才一直盯着比特币。
So that's why I'm looking at Bitcoin.
不过我得坦白，我现在还持有多头仓位，基本上是从接近低点时建的仓。
Still full disclosure, I am long still right now from pretty much close to the lows.
我现在的仓位没满，但还是希望这波上涨能再持续一阵子，至少到月底吧。
I don't have my full position anymore, but, you know, I'm still looking to possibly continue this move up for a little bit, at least till maybe, you know, the end of the month.
就是这样。
So, yeah.
明白了。
Okay.
讲得太好了，Hunter，谢谢。
Great stuff Hunter, thank you.
我觉得每个人的操作方式和风格都不一样。
And I think that again, everybody kind of has a different approach, different style.
所以每次能请到布伦丹·亨特来，一起做这种不同角度的分析，我特别喜欢。
That's why I love having Brendan Hunter on when we can at the same time to get that different type of breakdown.
如果有人感兴趣，不妨去YouTube刷新一下页面。
And if anybody's interested, refresh refresh your page on YouTube.
而且我们经常聊这个话题。
And you know, talk about all the time.
布兰登有个交易课程，每周两次你能跟他学到这种技术分析。
Brendan has his trading course where you can get kind of this type of TA with Brendan Hunter twice a week.
往下拉，点那个链接了解更多详情。
So scroll down, check the link there to learn more about that.
咱们看看聊天里都有谁在？
We've got who do we have here in the chat?
来瞧瞧都有谁在线。
Let's see who's here.
有BTC Harpist。
We got BTC Harpist.
早上好。
Good morning.
来自佛罗里达州拉克兰的凯文。
Kevin from Lakeland, Florida.
离我不算远。
Not too far from me.
太棒了。
Love that.
大家早上好。
Good morning, everybody.
告诉我们谁在看直播。
Let us know who's watching.
我们。
Us
我也不知道具体有多远。
Not know where too far from me either.
对，就是这样。
Yeah, there you go.
对，我和亨特。
Yeah, me and Hunter.
展开剩余字幕（还有 465 条）
没错。
That's right.
随着我们继续聊下去，我觉得刚才讨论的内容还挺有意思的。
The as we move on, I thought this was kind of cool that what we were talking about.
算不上多酷，但确实很有趣。
Not really cool, but it's just really interesting.
我一开始在节目开头就提过。
I mentioned at the top of the show.
韩国市场的波动简直太疯狂了。
The volatility in South Korea has been crazy.
是啊，波动特别大，我觉得这正在给市场带来一些你看到的连锁反应。
Yeah, it's been wild and I think that's causing some ripples in the market that you're seeing.
当然，布兰登之前提到的内存行业，那些高飞股可能一下子跌上二三十个百分点。
Course, the memory trade that Brendan was talking about of kind of quote unquote maybe falling off a cliff down twenty, thirty percent of these high flyers.
这是我看到的波动率图表，你们看，这张图从1980年一直延续到现在。
This is the volatility chart I saw and it I mean, we're we're this chart goes back all the way to 1980 here folks on the left.
所以你现在看到的情况，跟2008年全球金融危机或者互联网泡沫时期很像。
So you're looking at similar to the 2008, which was a global financial crisis, similar to 99time.com bubble.
我觉得现在韩国的情况特别独特，说不上酷不酷，但很多芯片相关的交易、很多公司都扎根在韩国。
And like, I think it's cool or not cool, but I think it's so unique to Korea right now because a lot of those chip trades, a lot of those companies are based in South Korea.
所以韩国国内对这个领域特别热情，虽然不是第一次了，但他们确实是全球的领头羊。
And so there's a lot of excitement in that country for the, you know, not maybe not the first time, but they're they're a leader, a global leader in this trade.
这就让很多普通老百姓都卷了进来，因为这些公司就在自己国家，大家自然就兴奋起来了。
And so I think it's gotten a lot of people, a lot of average people, everyday people kind of get involved in the markets, getting excited because these companies are based in their country.
但加上各种杠杆ETF，还有那些普通人根本搞不懂的特殊投资方式，导致那边的市场波动变得史无前例。
But with all the leveraged ETFs and all and all the ability to go in and get exposure at unique rates that a lot of people probably don't understand, it seems to be causing some historic volatility over there.
我觉得这种波动正在慢慢影响到其他市场。
And I think that's creeping into the markets.
有时候，布兰登和我都会提到这一点。
Kinda, you know, in a way, Brandon and I always bring this up from time to time.
这让我想起了当时那种情况。
It reminds me of that.
那时候就是Kai交易那会儿。
It was like the the Kai trade.
大概是八月份吧。
It was like August of Yeah.
20年？是24年吗？
'20 was that '24?
2020年8月。
August '20
我觉得是。
I think so.
当时简直是一场疯狂的平仓。
And it was like a crazy unwind.
我记得那时候我和你都在盯盘。
And I remember me and you were on the rundown.
我们俩就傻眼了，这到底怎么回事？
We're just like, what is going on?
那时候就像那笔中井交易。
It was like, the nakai trade.
这是一笔套利交易。
It's a it's a carry trade.
你得先平掉这笔交易，才能平那笔，再平这一笔，才能把钱拿出来。
And you gotta unwind this trade to unwind that trade to unwind this trade to get your money out.
所以比特币跌，是因为这个原因吗？
And it's like, is that why Bitcoin's down?
我买比特币根本不是因为日本，也不是因为中井。
Like, I don't I I didn't buy Bitcoin because of the the Japan, the Kai.
这说法我实在想不通。
Like, this doesn't make sense to me.
我当时觉得，这倒是个不错的买入机会。
And so that was kind of a a buying opportunity, I thought.
不过每种情况都不一样。
Again, each situation is different.
我觉得这并不完全一样。
I don't think this is exactly the same.
但当你看到全球金融投资体系的底层结构撞上瓶颈时，确实挺有意思的。
But it is interesting when you see kind of the plumbing of the global financial investment system kind of hit these walls.
这时候最好退一步看看，趁机检查一下自己的交易和投资组合，问问自己：我有没有卷入这里面？
It is kind of good to zoom out and just kind of it's a good time to zoom out and check your own trades, check your own portfolio and be like, okay, am I connected to this?
我有没有？
Am I not?
而且我们一直都在关注和讨论这个内存交易，它是AI热潮的一部分，涨得特别猛。
And and again, we've been kinda watching and talking about this memory trade, part of the AI trade just high flying.
说实话，我不确定。
And I don't know.
我之前在节目里也坦白过，我确实有几笔投资从中赚了点钱，但都没到疯狂的程度。
I've been I I I I think I've said on the show openly like, hey, I I had a couple things here and there that were doing well in it, but nothing crazy.
我感觉自己像个局外人，远远看着这一切。
And I I felt like an outsider looking at it almost a little bit.
当你没有情感投入的时候，判断顶部要容易得多。
And I think it's a lot easier to call a top when you're not emotionally invested.
我最近一直在看这个，觉得这撑不了多久。
I was I was watching this thing recently like, this isn't gonna last.
根本不可能持久。
There's no way.
结果果然如此，那些个股就出问题了。
And then sure enough, you know, some of these things, the individual stocks.
比特币矿机公司也牵扯在里头，对吧？
And the Bitcoin miners were kind of tied up into that too, right?
很多比特币矿企，比如Riot和Iron，以前我们聊过，它们现在转行了，说要卖AI电力。
Like a lot of Bitcoin miners, Riot, Iron, they kind of we've had on the show before, have pivoted from mining Bitcoin to now, oh, we'll we'll sell you AI energy.
这些股票一度涨了百分之几百，现在却回调了百分之三十。
And these stocks were flying up hundreds of percent, but now they're correcting 30.
我看到有些甚至跌了百分之六十。
I saw some at 60% correction.
所以，布兰登，你先说吧，亨特。
So, yeah, Brendan, just hop in there, Hunter.
我们接着听你的看法。
Let's get to your take second.
布兰登，对于这种波动，你对整体局势有什么看法吗？
But, Brendan, any any thoughts on the the broader picture here with this volatility?
对。
Yeah.
没错。
Yeah.
我觉得在这种波动行情里，其实没必要总是盯着交易。
I think with this kind of volatility, like, it's always it's it's you don't always have to be in a trade.
对吧？
Right?
市场确实很动荡。
You it's volatile.
市场波动很大。
It's choppy.
我和亨特最近刚聊过这个话题，来回讨论了好几次。
Hunter and I have actually gone back and forth talking about this, like, pretty recently.
有时候，最好的交易就是不做交易，静观其变也没关系。
Like, sometimes the best trade you can make is no trade at all, and it's okay to sit on your hands.
尤其是在市场不确定性更高、波动剧烈的时候，普通人不可能整天盯着电脑。
And especially if the markets are a little bit more uncertain and they are really volatile, the average person, you know, can't sit at their computer all day.
他们也没法时刻监控这些变化。
They can't monitor this stuff.
这会让他们特别焦虑。
It freaks them out.
如果你真被这个困扰，那我建议你——
If that does concern you, then I would say, hey.
可以试试定投，先在一旁观望，按自己的节奏来。
Like, do a little bit of dollar cost averaging, sit on the side, and kinda do your own thing.
但你其实没必要非得掺和进去。
But you don't don't feel like you have to necessarily get involved.
我的想法是，从整体来看，我们现在所处的位置，我觉得正是抄底的好机会。
Now my whole idea is I think that where we're at down here as a whole is I think we will get buy the dip opportunities.
我觉得世界还没崩盘。
I don't think the world's blowing up.
我觉得这不会成为市场、比特币或者传统金融的下一场核爆事件。
I don't think this is the next nuclear event for the markets, for for Bitcoin or for TradFi.
你知道的，回调总会发生，但我相信，正是从这些回调的废墟里，才会冒出真正的买入机会，我就是这么看的。
It's like, you know, pullbacks happen, but I think that out of the ashes of these pullbacks, I think we get buying opportunities, and that's what I view this as.
你提到日本的套利交易，那真是个绝佳的例子。
You know, you said the Japanese carry trade, that was a great example.
再看关税冲击，那也是个很好的例子。
You look at the tariff crash, that was a great example.
你看看今年早些时候的地缘政治动荡，还有随之而来的抄底和波段交易机会，当时冒出了多少好交易啊。
You look at some of the buy the dip and, like, swing trading opportunities that came out of the tariff crash or not the tariff crash, the geopolitical stuff that we had earlier this year, tons of great trades that come came out of that.
我觉得我们现在的情况跟之前挺像的。
I think that we're kind of in the same scenario with where we're at right now.
我更倾向于布局上涨，而不是担心下跌。
Like, I wanna be positioning for the upside as opposed to positioning for the downside.
大概一两周前，有人问我，说：
And I had someone ask me, like, a week or two ago and say, hey.
我是不是该把所有比特币都卖了，等价格再跌？
Should I sell all my Bitcoin and expect prices to go lower?
我当时就说：不，没必要。
And I was like, well, no.
我绝对不打算这么做。
I definitely don't wanna do that.
相反，我反而想多买点比特币。
If anything, I wanna accumulate more Bitcoin.
不过， downside 风险存在吗？
However, is there downside risk?
答案还是肯定的。
And the answer is still yeah.
确实还是有下行风险的。
Like, there is still downside risk.
比特币价格可能还会创新低，但我绝对不想在现在这个价位清仓所有加密货币，赌它一定会跌到新低。
Bitcoin could still go to new lows, but I definitely do not wanna be selling off all of my crypto at these levels and betting that we're gonna go to new lows.
我觉得那样做风险级别完全不一样。
I think that's just a different level of risky.
对。
Yeah.
说得很好。
Well said.
说到韩国市场的波动性，现在韩国ETF（EWY）从历史高点已经跌了30%。
Well, yeah, in regarding especially the volatility here in Korea, I mean, right now, the EWY, which is the South Korea ETF, is down 30% from all time highs.
但就在我们聊天的这段时间，它早上已经涨了百分之四五。
But as we've been speaking, it's up about four to 5% just this morning.
自从咱们开播以来，纳斯达克已经反弹了大约1.5%。
Even the Nasdaq has already bounced about 1.5% since we've started this show.
很明显，现在有人在积极抄底。
So definitely people catching in a bid.
从传统角度看，我依然在关注更高的低点，整体还是挺看多的。
I'm still, you know, from the traditional standpoint, looking for higher lows, still pretty bullish.
10%的回调，不算什么大事。
10% correction, not too much.
至于AI和内存板块的回调，当然，一开始是战争爆发、油价上涨，接着市场担心能源通胀，后来又回落，现在又开始回升了。
But regarding maybe some of the unwind, especially in AI and memory, well, of course, we had the war begin and we had oil go up, and then we had worries about energy driven inflation, then it came back down, and then now it's starting to go back up.
再加上能源通胀带来的资本开支问题，这俩事儿是叠加在一起的。
And then we have, on top of that, issues with CapEx because because of the energy driven inflation, you have a two pronged effect.
这两者其实是相互关联的。
They're kinda comorbid here.
能源通胀推高了电费，直接影响AI的运营成本。
You have the energy driven inflation, which will drive costs for AI, you know, electricity power.
但这样一来，美联储可能不得不转向加息，进而导致资本支出的债务融资成本更高。
But then also that also makes the Fed have to maybe pivot to raising rates, and then you need to issue more debt at CapEx at higher interest expense.
所以现在有两方面压力，再加上这种撤资潮正在持续。
So you have two things, and then you have that winding out down.
因此，你可能会看到流动性开始流向其他资产类别。
And so then you see that liquidity may be flowing back into other assets, other asset classes.
我没法直接证明这一点。
I can't necessarily prove that.
比如比特币ETF的资金流，过去一个月左右其实并不强。
I mean, Bitcoin, ETF flows have been a bit weak this you know, over the last month or so.
但看起来，现在确实有人在从AI和内存股的炒作中撤出。
But it does seem like that that is something that might be happening right now as people are unwinding from the kinda AI memory play.
韩国市场显然是这方面的风向标。
And South Korea is definitely kind of the proxy for that.
说得很到位。
Great points.
关于这一点，我想再补充最后一点：我之前在节目里说过，我一直站在外面看着这个内存交易，真的挺有意思的。
And I I think just one final point on that is that I I kind of I've talked about in the show how I've been like, hey, I'm kind of on the outside looking in on this this memory trade and it's been, you know, fascinating to to watch.
但越是看到这个趋势开始退潮，我就越有信心。
But I've never felt more confident as that starts to unwind.
对吧？
Right?
我们刚才说的，这可是全场最耀眼的焦点。
We've just talked about, hey, it's the belle of the ball.
谁是那个你最想带去舞会的女孩？
Who's the girl that you wanna take to the dance?
以前是加密货币。
And you know, it was crypto.
我们确实风光过一阵子。
We had we had our run.
真的，那段日子我们是真火过。
We truly did.
我们确实风光过一阵子。
We had our run.
然后情况就变了。
And then it shifted.
资金嘛，你知道的，总会往最热、最新的风口涌去。
And the money, you know, the money finds the hot and the hot new thing in the market.
你看着这东西一路狂涨，心里就想：这事儿到底什么时候才停？
And so you're watching this thing just continuously go up and like, hey, is this ever gonna stop?
不仅会不会停，它会不会跌，也成了问题。
And not only is it ever gonna stop, is it ever gonna go down?
就说过去这三个月吧，你打开任何财经频道、任何播客，都是这样。
Like, I remember over the last three months, I mean, you could turn on any business channel, any podcast.
每个专家都在说：这事儿说得通，有道理。
And it's just any talking head saying, no, this is this makes sense.
美光这次操作，完全合理。
This Micron move makes sense.
这个DRAMETF涨了150%。
This DRAM ETF going up a 150%.
供应根本跟不上。
They don't have enough.
他们想定价就定价。
There's not they can name their price.
供应根本跟不上。
They don't have enough.
人们就是停不下来地买。
People will never stop buying.
一旦你开始听到这种说法，我就警觉了——这根本不符合市场逻辑。
And like as soon as you start hearing that stuff, my ears perk up of like, well, that's that's not how this thing works.
市场可不是这么运作的。
That's not how the the markets work.
迟早会有人被打回原形。
Like, somebody you'll eventually get humbled.
我确实有。
I have yeah.
没什么别的要补充的了。
Not another thing to kind of add on to that.
现在像Anthropic这些模型其实挺贵的，但咱们有些中国模型，比如Kimi K3，规模很大，而且是公开的、开源的、免费的。
Right now with, like, Anthropic and some of these models that are actually pretty expensive, we have, like, some of these Chinese models, like Kimi K three that are massive and they are public and open sourced and free.
当你开始遇到这种情况，人们觉得每个月花一百到两百美元订阅太贵了。
And so when you start to hit this kind of bubble where people are like, okay, I'm having issues paying for a 100 to $200 subscription per month.
他们就会转去用这些公开的模型，这其实正在削弱一些关于AI的神话。
I'm just gonna go to this public, you know, model that starts breaking down some of that AI narrative.
我觉得我们已经开始看到这种趋势了，因为对普通用户来说，在美国用这些模型的成本，相比中国那些开源免费的模型，确实高太多了。
I think we're starting to see something like that because it is pretty expensive for the average user to use these models that we have here in The US relative to the open source kind of free models in China.
对。
Yeah.
而且我觉得现在就像一场资本支出竞赛——拼命砸钱，要建最大最好的，但这样真能带来回报吗？
And then I think as it feels like it's the CapEx race of, hey, spend as much as you can, build the biggest and best, but does that turn into ROI?
而且你知道，很多公司都
And you know, a lot of these companies that
没错。
say Right.
这全都是基于未来收益的猜测。
It's all speculation just on forward returns essentially.
是的。
Yeah.
而那些使用AI的公司会说，只要能带来投资回报，我们就用最好的AI，边用边学。
And then the companies that are using the AI be like, hey, we'll use whatever the best AI is if it brings us ROI, and then you start learning.
我觉得优步是最早跳出来喊停的公司之一。
I think Uber was one of the first ones to come and say, hey, time out.
我们自己有模型。
We're our token.
我们在令牌支出上花太多了。
We're spending too much on tokens.
我们雇这些人是来干活的，但他们却想用AI代劳，还疯狂地花在令牌费用上。
We're hiring these people to do their jobs, and they want to hire AI with the tokens, and our token expenditure is crazy.
这真是一个新时代了。
So it's just it's a new era.
需要学的东西太多了。
There's a lot of learning.
能身处市场、亲身参与、亲眼见证，其实特别有意思，毕竟这是科技史上的一次重大变革。
It's a lot fun just to, you know, be in the markets, be involved and see, because it is a historical change in tech.
但我真不记得有哪几个人专门跑来谈内存交易，还说这东西不会跌。
But I I don't think I I specifically remember a couple it was a couple different people just coming on and talking about the memory trade and saying, no, this thing won't go down.
这叫你说了算。
It's a name it's a name your price.
这是个由你定价的市场。
It's a name your price market.
反正就是不会跌。
Like, it's not going down.
这不再是周期性的了。
It's not cyclical.
过去，内存和芯片一直都是周期性波动的。
Traditionally, memory and chips has been cyclical.
现在真的不再有周期性了。
And like, it's not cyclical anymore.
这是一个由你定价的市场。
It's a name your price market.
我确实听到过这种说法。
And I I heard that.
我当时就想，这肯定是市场跌了40%之后他们常放的那段话。
I was like, I feel like that's the clip they play after 40% correction.
咱们还是回到加密货币，特别是比特币吧，因为亨特提到了ETF，而且我们终于迎来了九周以来的第一个上涨周。
But let's let's swing back into crypto, specifically Bitcoin because Hunter mentioned the ETFs and we have the first positive week for the first time in nine weeks.
亨特说，ETF确实表现疲软，但你看，现在情况不一样了。
Hunter said, yeah, the ETFs have been weak, but you know, here you go here.
看到价格从底部第一次出现绿色反弹，挺有意思的。
Just seeing that first green blip kind of coming off the bottom there.
这说明资金开始重新流入了。
So that's interesting to see that the inflows start to come back in.
说到比特币ETF，没哪个比贝莱德更大了。
Speaking of Bitcoin ETFs, none bigger than BlackRock.
拉里·芬克这周到处露面，上了不少电视，状态一如既往地好，谈到了加密货币和比特币。
Larry Fink making the rounds this week, getting some TV time, looking great as always, and talking about crypto and Bitcoin.
咱们听听他怎么说。
So let's hear what he had to say.
就像我以前说过的，我一直担心比特币和加密货币里杠杆太高。
There's no question, as I said it in earlier times that I was here, I was always worried about the leverage in in Bitcoin and crypto.
当时参与的人杠杆用得太猛了。
There was too much leverage players in it.
所以才会有大洗牌，但现在这个水平上，我觉得市场更稳了。
That's why we had to wash out, and I think there's more stability at these levels here.
但不会。
But, no.
我觉得这里并没有太多隐性杠杆。
I I don't see that much implicit leverage.
以今天资本市场的规模来看，杠杆水平并不算高。
For the scale of the capital markets today, the leverage is not as large.
我的意思是，这不代表完全没有局部风险。
I mean, that that that doesn't mean there's not pockets.
但不会。
But no.
就像我今天上午的发言中说的，我对未来十二个月的市场非常看好。
I I I as I said in my prepared remarks this morning, I'm very bullish on the markets over the next twelve months.
这一点毫无疑问。
I think there's no question.
听到你这么看好市场，真不错，拉里。
Good to hear Larry think being bullish.
很明显，他在谈自己的观点，毕竟贝莱德拥有规模最大的比特币ETF之一。
Obviously, talking his book with BlackRock having, you know, one of the largest Bitcoin ETFs or the largest Bitcoin ETF.
但我觉得这一点挺有意思的。
But I I just thought that was interesting.
这就像一块一块拼图，慢慢拼出完整的画面。
But again, it's like it's taking these pieces and and building your puzzle.
这周让我特别注意的是，我们节目的朋友、凯雷的肯·格里菲斯，他参与了Crypto.com的融资——这家公司从美国最大的零售做市商凯雷证券获得了40亿美元投资，估值达到200亿美元。
And this one jumped out to me this week was the Citadel, friend of the show, Ken Griffith, of course, investing in crypto.com raising four crypto dot com raises $400,000,000 from the largest U US retail market maker, the Citadel Securities at a $20,000,000,000 valuation.
我和布伦南聊过这事，我觉得……
I, you know, I have a say, think Brennan and I
我们确实讨论过，不过我没……
have talked about it, I don't
别把肯·格里菲斯当假的。
fake Ken Griffith.
那个叫凯雷的公司，不知道的人可能不了解，他们每天都在赚钱。
That guy that guy, the Citadel basically, for those who don't know, they make money every day.
市场上涨的时候，他们能赚钱。
They make money when the market goes up.
市场下跌的时候，他们照样赚钱。
They make money when the market goes down.
这简直就是印钞机啊。
That is the ultimate money printer.
所以我个人从来不跟肯·格里菲斯对着干，他做什么我都跟着看。
So I personally don't fade Ken Griffith, whatever he's doing.
我觉得他们投资Crypto.com这事特别有意思，这跟拉里说的不谋而合——瞧，市场这时候总算稳住了。
And so I thought this was really interesting, them investing in crypto.com kind of pairing off of what Larry thinks said of like, hey, seeing some stability at these levels.
最近加密货币确实跌得挺凶，但眼下总算有点企稳的迹象，ETF的资金流向也印证了这一点。
Obviously, crypto has been very volatile to the downside recently, but seeing some stability, the ETF flow show that.
再看到这种新闻，你就明白了：传统金融界已经进场了。
And then you start seeing this type of news and it's like, okay, The the you know, TradFi is here.
我们早知道这一点，而且看样子他们不会走了。
We've known that, and it doesn't look like they're going anywhere.
所以，亨特，什么样的消息能让你这么兴奋？
So, Hunter, what what do you is this is this news that gets you excited?
是吗？
Is
这挺有意思的，因为Crypto.com的估值高达200亿美元，而Cronos代币本身的市值只有26亿左右，按完全稀释计算大约是56亿美元。
It's it not interesting because that $20,000,000,000 valuation and Cronos, the coin itself, is at, like, a 2.6 market billion market cap and fully diluted, it's about 5,600,000,000.
我记得几年前Cronos链刚推出的时候，我其实挺参与其中的，当时在上面炒了不少模因币。
I remember several years ago when the Cronos chain came out, and I actually was pretty involved with it, with a lot of the meme coins on there.
一开始赚了点钱，但后来价格一路暴跌，亏得一塌糊涂。
Did a little bit did well for a little bit and then got absolutely rinsed as it came all the way back down.
我觉得这事儿挺有意思，不过我也同意你的看法。
So I find this interesting, but it is you know, I agree.
Citadel靠交易订单流赚钱，这你懂的。
Citadel, you know, they make money trading with order flow.
他们能拿到散户投资者的专属数据，然后拿这些信息来对付我们。
I they get they get special data that, from retail, you know, investors that they use against you.
所以对这种事，我总是有点怀疑，可能吧。
So it's always a little bit, yeah, maybe, skeptical of of something like this.
但我知道，像Robinhood和Crypto这样的玩家，那些几年前就在这个行业站稳脚跟的人，现在又开始回来了。
But I you know, it seems like some of the players, for instance, like a Robin Hood and then, you know, Crypto, that some people that made a foothold in the industry several years ago are starting to come back.
他们曾经高调亮相，结果却被洗得一干二净。
It's like they they put themselves out there and then they kind of all got rinsed or washed.
现在又有人开始抄底收购他们，看起来是因为他们有美国的监管资质和市场基础，大家想借这个来搭建自己的基础设施。
And then now people are coming back scooping them up, and it seems like because they have that US jurisdiction, US foothold that people are trying to, you know, build out their infrastructure now.
除此之外，关于加密货币.com这笔收购，我也没什么更多可说的了。
But other than that, I don't have much more to say about the crypto.com purchase.
是的。
Yeah.
我很想看看这事最后会怎么发展。
I'd be interested to see how this plays out.
我不敢说，但我觉得他们确实有段时间没那么重要了。
I I don't feel dare I say this, I don't feel like they've been super relevant for a bit.
是的。
Yeah.
他们就在那儿，规模绝对不小。
And they're there, and they're certainly not small.
他们算是中等体量了。
They're a decent size.
但我认为，回看2022年那波行情时，他们其实已经达到了巅峰。
But I think they really peaked during, like, you know, a previous cycle when you look back at, like, the 2022 run.
那时候他们特别火，占据主导地位。
I think they were really, really popular and dominant there.
对，没错。
I yeah.
咱们走着瞧吧。
We'll see.
这事儿挺有意思的。
I'm a it's interesting.
我真没料到会是这样。
I don't think I would have expected this.
如果你之前说西格玛在投资Kraken或者Gemini之类的，我可能会觉得，嗯，也许不是这些地方。
I think that if you would have said that Citadel was investing in Kraken or Gemini or, you know, or other places, I guess well, maybe not those.
不过，也可能是这些公司。
I guess they could have been those.
对吧？
Right?
是公开的，还是私下的？
Public or private.
要是投资了Coinbase、Gemini、Robinhood这些，那倒还说得通。
If it's cracking Coinbase, Gemini, Robinhood, like, would have been like, oh, that makes sense.
哪怕是Circle或者其他公司，我也更容易理解一些。
Or even if it's in, like, Circle or different players, I think I would have understood that a little bit more.
但Crypto.com嘛，咱们走着瞧吧。
But, again, crypto.com, we'll see.
我是说，Crypto.com
I'm I'm know, crypto.com
它一直是很多大型赞助商，比如我在UFC的美国赛事里经常看到它的广告。
has been, like, a big sponsor in a lot of what was like, I've seen it on The US in UFC.
对啊。
Yep.
它还赞助过哪些其他东西？
What what else has it been on?
而且我不确定你们有没有用过Crypto.com的卡片，或者有没有相关经验。
And and I don't know if any of you guys ever used the crypto.com cards at all as well or had any experience there.
是的。
Yeah.
Crypto.com球馆就在洛杉矶。
Well, crypto.comarena is LA.
哦，对。
Oh, yeah.
当然，还有那个体育馆。
Of course, the Arena.
是的。
Yeah.
不是。
No.
他们有钱，买得起这些东西。
They got they got a lot of money to buy.
挺有意思的。
It's interesting.
我的意思是，他们显然有一整套成熟的业务。
I mean, they they obviously have a have a a book of business.
而且再说，我可能只是
And again I could just
哦，不好意思。
oh, sorry.
我就是不会贬低肯·格里菲斯。
I just don't I don't fade Ken Griffith.
这是我的原则。
It's just a rule of mine.
我喜欢这一点。
I like that.
是的。
Yeah.
你说得对。
You're right.
关键是这样。
I mean, here's the thing.
我不过是个在电台里说说话、偶尔挑个刺的人。
I'm just a talking radio head here meant to stir the pot a little bit.
我的观点、我故意唱反调，这些都远不如肯·格里菲斯和城堡公司实际在做的事重要。
My opinion and me stirring the pot and playing devil's advocate matters drastically less than what Ken Griffin and Citadel are doing.
对吧？
Right?
他们清楚情况如何。
They know what's going on.
就像蒂沃说的，通常输的不是他们。
It's like Tivo said, they're not the ones who typically lose.
谁会输？
Who loses?
是散户投资者。
It's the retail investors.
听好了。
So listen.
我只是个网络上的意见人物。
I'm just your Internet personality.
我特别喜欢聊加密货币。
I love talking about crypto.
我有时候故意唱反调，就是想把话题搅活一点。
I play a devil's advocate, and I like to stir the pot a little bit.
但说实话，不会的。
But, you know, no.
我们确实挺看好加密货币这个平台的。
We we like crypto.com for sure.
不过我们还得盯着这事怎么发展。
And, yeah, we'll have to watch how this plays out.
不过我挺认同他们的想法，他们进来后说：嘿，
I do like the idea, though, that they're coming in and they're saying, hey.
现在正是往这类资产里投钱的好时机。
We view now as the time to put money into this kind of thing.
我觉得这其实是个好兆头。
And I think that's a good sign.
再说一遍，他们看中的是长期价值。
Again, they see long term value.
如果不是看好这事儿，他们根本不会进来，Citadel也不会掺和。
They wouldn't be coming in here and doing this, and Citadel wouldn't be getting involved if that wasn't the case.
所以我挺欣赏这一点。
So I I like that.
他并不是唯一一个还在持续投入和建设的人。
He's not the only one that continues to build and invest.
摩根士丹利已经把比特币现货交易上线到E*TRADE了。
Morgan Stanley rolling out the Bitcoin spot trading to E Trade.
这已经正式推出了。
That's officially live.
他们还在继续拓展，我这儿有份清单。
And then they continue to build out I have it on the sheet here.
他们还在规划以太坊和索拉纳的山寨币ETF产品。
They continue to build out, some s ones for, their altcoin ETFs with Ethereum and Solana.
顺便提醒一下听众，摩根士丹利其实并不是ETF领域的主力玩家。
And kinda just to remind the listeners is Morgan Stanley is not a huge ETF player.
如果你去看看他们的产品线，其实数量并不多。
If you go and look through their offerings, it's not a ton.
所以如果他们只是走个过场，花时间去申请和搭建这些系统，那这种事他们肯定不是只做半年、一年，或者一轮就完事的。
So if they're kind of going through the motions and and taking the time to apply and set these things up, this is the type of stuff again that they're not doing for six months for a year, one cycle.
他们是放眼未来，觉得这玩意儿将来肯定占一席之地，至少我是这么看的。
They're looking out and saying, hey, I think this is a part of the future, in my opinion.
他们想做这些，是因为打算未来给一些客户配置1%、2%、3%、4%、5%的加密资产比例。
And they're gonna be they wanna do this because they're gonna start, you know, doing, hey, the one, two, three, four, 5% allocation to crypto for some of their clients.
他们不想让拉里那种ETF来卖。
And they don't wanna have to sell, Larry thinks, ETF.
他们想自己推出产品，直接卖给客户。
They wanna sell their own to their clients.
所以他们一直在持续投入这些项目，我觉得从长远来看，这绝对是好事。
So they continue to build this stuff out, which I think is is a a net positive long term.
亨特，你怎么看？
Hunter, what are your thoughts?
是的。
Yeah.
我知道，布兰登这周早些时候也提到过。
I you know, and Brendan actually said this earlier this week.
竞争能推动创新，这一点我很欣赏。
It's a competition, like, breeds innovation, and it's something that I like.
所以市场上多一些竞争者是好事。
So more competitors in the market.
而且更多的产品意味着更好的流动性。
Also, it's just more vehicles actually provides more liquidity.
为什么金融领域总用‘流动’‘水’这类词，比如货币、银行、流动性，就是因为资金必须不断流动。
There's a reason why, money has a ton of liquid or water terms, currency, banks, liquidity, because it always needs to be flowing.
产品越多，资金流动越活跃，市场就越有流动性，也越有效率。
And so the more vehicles there are, the more products, the more money's flowing, the more the market is liquid and efficient.
我很看好这一点。
I I like this.
所以，通常呢，一个资产管理公司会跳进来，开始推自己的产品。
So, you know, usually a maybe a typical asset manager jumping into the ring, starting to sell their own product.
我觉得这跟Robinhood自己搞一条区块链是一回事。
I think that's the same thing as, like, Robinhood building its own chain.
你是在现有的轨道上继续建设。
You know, you're building on rails.
你这么做是为了把业务收回来，掌握更多主动权。
You're trying to bring things in house so you have more control.
还有，虽然这些ETF的管理费率都很低，但一旦规模上到万亿美元级别，收入加起来就是几十亿美金了。
Also, there's a lot of fee I mean, expense ratios are very low on a lot of these ETFs, but in scale, as you get trillions of dollars in these assets, I mean, that's gonna be billions of dollars in revenue down the road.
也就是说，只要他们能抢到足够的市场份额。
That means, you know, if they are able to gather market share.
这生意确实竞争激烈，但归根结底，它增加了更多产品选择，提升了流动性，所以我挺看好这个方向。
I mean, it's a very competitive business, but nonetheless, it just opens up more vehicles, more liquidity, and so I like it there.
Brendan，你还有什么要补充的吗？
Brendan, anything to add?
没有。
No.
没什么要补充的了。
Not a ton else to add.
亨特和你刚才说的都一针见血。
I think Hunter hit Hunter and you hit it right on the head there.
他们想多参与一点，这倒也说得通，但其实没必要。
It makes sense that, you know, maybe they would wanna get a little bit more involved, but no.
我这边没什么别的想法了。
No no other thoughts from me.
很棒。
Very cool.
谢谢。
Thank you.
我们来聊聊《清晰法案》吧。
Let's talk about the Clarity Act.
我发现这一周又到了我们节目里最让人难过的一段，关于清晰度的问题。
I'm seeing this is getting a sad part of the show that we do every week, with the clarity.
多德斯那边开始出现反转了。
Dodds are starting to roll over.
是的。
Yeah.
他们昨天刚有动静。
They had something yesterday.
对。
Yeah.
我看到说特朗普总统要去国会，跟他们谈这件事，但关键在于那个条款——他们希望特朗普家族不能从加密货币里获利，而正是这一点能让民主党人达成共识。
I saw it was like, okay, president Trump's gonna go on the hill and meet and they're gonna start talking about it, but there's just, you know, there's the clause that the that they they want, you know, President Trump family not to be able to profit and Crypto is gonna get those Democrats across the line that they need.
但看起来这事大概率是搞不成了。
And it just doesn't just doesn't look like it's it's gonna happen.
我觉得现在成功的概率大概只有四成左右。
I think the odds are now around 40%.
所以现在支持率还不到五成，但国会里确实有人在讨论这件事。
So we're even under 50%, but there's people talk they're they're talking about it on the hill.
他们正努力推动这件事进展。
They're trying to get it moved.
我知道国会和参议院八月份要休会。
I know that there's what the the recess for for Congress and the Senate coming up in August.
所以这个时间表并不是最终的，但原本是打算在中期选举前搞定的。
So that was kind of the the not the final timeline forever, but it was a maybe before the the midterm elections.
现在这可能就是新的时间线了。
This could be the the timeline.
前景不太乐观，但至少还在谈。
So not looking good, but there is conversations being had.
这个周末我会留意一下有没有新消息，看看有没有什么值得聊的。
I'll keep a lookout over the weekend for news to see if there's anything, you know, new that comes out or anything worth talking about.
不过咱们先换个轻松的话题，刚收到一条最新动态。
Let's but let's finish on a positive note and this just came across hot off the wire.
我觉得这个特别有意思。
Thought this was really interesting.
第一，这是加密货币。
Number one, that's crypto.
第二，因为这家公司在我们播客里聊过。
Number two, because it's a firm that we've had on the podcast before.
第三，朋友们，第三点可能最重要。
And number three fellas, number three and my arguably the most important.
这事儿还牵扯到即将到来的橄榄球赛季。
It involves football football season around the corner.
如果你闭上眼睛，
If you close your eyes
深吸一口气，你就能
and you take a deep breath, you can
闻到八月里本地高中球场上新割的青草味。
smell that fresh cut grass on your local high school field as you get ready for two days in August.
训练营马上就要开始了，不管你是在高中三级、二级、一级，还是在NFL。
The right around the corner Training camp is right around the corner, whether you're in high school d three, d two, or d one, or the NFL.
不过今天我们聊的是大学一级橄榄球，兄弟们。
But we're gonna talk about d one football here, fellas.
我们今天还要聊聊加密货币，兄弟们。
We're gonna talk about crypto here, fellas.
那这两者怎么联系到一块儿呢？
How do I tie that together?
Galaxy刚宣布了一项合作，成为德克萨斯理工大学红骑兵队的官方数据中心和数字资产合作伙伴。
Galaxy just announced a partnership where they are the official data center and digital asset partner of the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
这太棒了。
Come on.
太棒了，得州，加油。
Love it, Texas, baby.
确实很棒。
Love it.
德克萨斯理工红骑兵队
Texas Tech Red Raiders.
红骑兵队橄榄球队现在把银河体育场当主场了
The Red Raiders football is now the home of Galaxy Stadium.
得把他们再请回播客里
Gotta get those guys back on the podcast.
说不定能搞到几张票
Maybe we could get some tickets.
真想去一趟卢博克
I'd love to go down to Lubbock.
秋天的德克萨斯州卢博克
Lubbock, Texas in the fall.
把主教练请来
Get the head coach head coach on.
对
Yeah.
还有他们的四分卫。
And their quarterback.
他是个狂热的赌徒。
He's a degenerate gambler.
所以我特别喜欢。
So I love it.
这就像是
It's like
大概就是这个原因。
Probably why.
时机正好。
That's the timing.
简直完美到极点。
It's literally the it's perfect.
这到底算什么赞助？
This is what what is sponsorship?
赞助到底是什么？
What is sponsorship?
太棒了。
Awesome.
这简直太搞笑了。
It's hilarious.
不过我很好奇。
I am curious, though.
Tivo，你能不能给我讲讲？因为这更贴近你的领域。
Tivo, maybe you can give me some insight because this is more your world.
他们是怎么把这一切串联起来的？
How do they connect the dots to make this kind of thing happen?
比如，在Galaxy公司内部，他们是怎么决定的？
Like, what goes on at Galaxy where they're like, you know what we need to do?
我们得去找德克萨斯理工大学，成为他们的官方数字资产和数据中心提供商。
We need to go to Texas Tech, and we need to be their official digital assets and data center provider.
我是想知道，这种想法到底是怎么冒出来的？
Like, what goes through how does that happen?
这正是我想问的。
That's just my question.
顺便说一句，我觉得这太棒了。
I'm I think it's awesome, by the way.
如果他们再来，我一定好好夸夸他们。
If we have them back on, I'm gonna give them kudos.
我觉得这真的很厉害。
I think it's really cool.
我就想知道，这种念头到底是怎么产生的？
I just wanna know how does that thought get initiated.
你懂的。
You know?
对。
Yeah.
我刚才随便搜了一下，想知道董事会里谁是德克萨斯理工毕业的。
I quick Google here as I was like, who on the board of directors went to Texas Tech?
一些实习生。
Some interns.
所以就是随便搜了下。
So Quick Google.
什么都没找到。
Nothing nothing.
我得好好查一查，这事儿太棒了。
I'll I'll do some research because I think this is so great.
我真的特别喜欢。
I I just I love it.
我一搜发现，董事会里没人是德克萨斯理工毕业的。
I the quick Google says none none of the board of directors went to Texas Tech.
我再看看还有没有其他人。
I'll go see if there's anybody else.
我觉得我的想法是，顶层一定有什么联系，毕竟这么多钱流向德州理工的NIL项目，现在只要是关注大学体育的人都知道，大学正因为NIL资金逐渐变成职业联赛。
I think it's my thought was there's gotta be some connection at the top of the sphere because all this money for Texas Tech is going to NIL and anybody that follows, you know, college sports these days is is colleges turn into pros because of this NIL money.
这些交易简直疯狂。
These deals are crazy.
所以这个命名权体育场名义上是给学校的，但实际上很可能资金会流入NIL基金，用来吸引顶尖运动员来这儿。
So this Naming Rights Stadium is going to the school, but it's really probably going to the NIL fund to to go and and hire really the athletes to go there.
有意思的是，它提到了数字资产部分，还有数据中心部分。
So I think because it's interesting that it says the digital assets portion, but also the data center portion.
得州大家都知道，对那些不太出门旅行的人，或者全球普通民众，甚至很多美国本地人，如果没怎么到处跑过，可能都不知道得州有多大。
Obviously, Texas, you know, the I think the average person that doesn't travel a lot or the average person around the world, but also the even the average American that doesn't necessarily get out and hit the road, Texas is a huge state.
它真的大得惊人。
It's it's unbelievably big.
而且那里有大量未开发的土地，所以很自然会有人想，干脆在这儿建一堆数据中心吧。
And it there's so much undeveloped land that I think it's kind of a hot spot to be like, alright, we're gonna go put a bunch of data centers there.
所以我猜，这背后是和德州理工还有银河公司联手合作。
So my guess is partnering with Texas Tech, partnering with Galaxy.
德克萨斯理工大学可能拥有大量土地赠予，我只是随便想想。
Texas Tech probably has a lot of land grants because and I'm just doing this off the top of my head.
给我点个赞吧。
Shout out to me.
德克萨斯理工大学的农业项目规模很大。
Texas Tech has a huge agricultural program.
要做这么大的农业项目，肯定得占不少地。
To have a big agricultural program, you have to own a lot of land.
现在那边肯定在暗中谈条件。
So there's some handshakes going on right now.
他们可能说：‘要不你们把玉米或者生菜项目缩一缩，把那块地让出来，我们给你们七亿美元，条件是你们把体育场命名权给我们，再划块地给我们。’
It's like, hey, maybe we cut the, you know, maybe we cut the corn program or cut the lettuce program down a little bit and you give that sum of land to us and we're gonna write you a 700,000,000 check if you put our name on the stadium and give us some land.
所以这里头可能有土地交易，至少是优先购买土地的权利。
So I there might be a little bit of land deal going on here, or at least access to rights to buy the land even.
再往远了看，他们说不定要建个数据中心，或者搞个AI学院、数字资产学院。
And then, you know, again, moving into the future, you know, maybe they're building a data center, you know, an AI school, a data center school, digital asset school.
这种合作模式未来可能衍生出很多有意思的发展方向。
There's there's there's a lot of interesting stuff where this type of partnership could go down.
我一直觉得这特别有意思。
And I always thought it was really interesting.
我们的领头人Bryce让我们关注了这个——Galaxy是一家数字资产公司，你们可以去查查，他们其实也在做人工智能相关业务。
Bryce put us onto this, our fearless leader, was Galaxy is a digital assets firm, and you want to do your research on that, but they also are an AI play.
他们拥有大量数据中心，很多人并不知道这一点。
They have all these data centers, a lot of people don't know that.
这是我持有一只股票，我正拼命做功课，想搞清楚所有普通投资者可能不了解的细节，看看他们到底在参与哪些事。
And so it's an interesting, it's one my stocks that I'm kind of like trying to do as much research as I can about all the things that maybe the average investor doesn't know about everything that they're involved with as well.
为德克萨斯理工大学和红骑兵队加油！
But guns up for Texas Tech, the Red Raiders.
对。
Yep.
恕我孤陋寡闻，但有没有过这种情况——不是加密公司，而是一家上市公司，买下了大学体育场的冠名权？
Has this ever again, forgive my ignorance here, but has this ever happened where not even a crypto company, but, like, a public traded company has bought the naming rights to a college stadium?
这是个好问题。
That's a great question.
我觉得没有。
I don't think so.
至少据我所知，大型体育场还没出现过这种情况，因为通常它们都是以与学校有重要关联的人命名——比如重要人物、捐赠者或创始人。
At least not to my knowledge of, like, a major stadium, because they're usually named after someone of significance in relation to that school, whether they be someone significant or a donor or a founder.
你放眼看看，基本都是这样。
Like, you look across the board, and that's usually what it is.
就我所知，还没见过哪家上市公司拿到过大学体育场的命名权。
I at least in my experience, I have yet to see a publicly traded company get the naming rights to a college stadium.
是的。
Yeah.
这事儿我顺手搜一下。
Just a this is a quick Google.
路易斯维尔大学的体育场就叫帕帕约翰球场。
We've got Papa John's Stadium for University of Louisville.
肯塔基大学的球场叫克罗格球场。
We've got Kroger Stadium for Kentucky.
原来如此。
Okay.
所以……
So
不是那样的。
not yeah.
不过也没多少，你说得对。
So, I mean, not not not a ton though, because you're right.
我刚刚是凭记忆随口说了几个名字。
I was I was, you know, naming a bunch off my head.
他们接下来会像阿拉巴马大学的布莱恩特-丹尼球场那样……
What they're what they're gonna start doing is, like, an Alabama's Bryant Denny Stadium
对。
Yeah.
尼克·萨班球场，由哦，当然赞助。
At Nick Saban Field brought to you by Oh, yeah.
由西点军校赞助。
Brought to you by the Citadel.
这下一步就该这么干了。
Like, that's the next step.
这下一步就该这么干了。
That's the next step.
其实还真有一所西点军校。
Well, there actually is a Citadel school too.
我猜西点军校肯定会深入研究这事儿。
I'm sure that the Citadel's gonna go after the Citadel in detail.
挺好的。
Be good.
一个双A。
One double a.
是的
Yeah.
对
Yeah.
肯·格里芬说不定真会买下来。
Well, Ken Griffin might just buy it.
肯·格里芬会买下的。
Like, Ken Griffin's gonna it.
他会买下来，然后说：‘我还以为我非得买不可呢。’
He's gonna buy it and be like, oh, I thought I had to buy it.
是我搞错了。
My bad.
是我搞错了，各位。
My bad, y'all.
是 Citadel 赞助的朋友。
Friend of the Sponsored by Citadel.
是的。
Yeah.
肯·格里芬是节目的朋友。
Friend of the show, Ken Griffin.
不过，这确实是个挺有意思的故事。
But yeah, the the I think the is a fun fun story.
当然，节目的老朋友们确实都来过。
Obviously, friends of the show truly Galaxy they've been on.
不过我真希望他们能再来，聊聊这事，说不定还能去卢博克看场球赛。
But yeah, I'd love to get them back on and and talk about this and see if we can get out to to Lubbock for for a game.
搞点红色的，来点红色骑兵队的氛围，今天就先到这里了。
Get some red get some red Raider But that's gonna wrap us up for Friday.
让大家为足球季热血起来，布兰登你懂的，休纳。
Getting everybody excited for football season as Brendan knows Hunter.
我超爱足球，你知道的，我就是个铁杆球迷。
I'm a huge, you know, I'm a football guy.
我骨子里就是个足球迷。
I I bleed I bleed football.
我太喜欢了。
I love it.
看你们穿上护具、听到那砰砰的碰撞声，简直是我生命里最重要的一部分。
It's a it's it's a huge huge part of my entire being is just getting to watch you guys put on the pads and hear that thud.
每次一看到，我就热血沸腾。
It just gets it gets me gets me going.
新赛季马上就要开始了。
And so it's right around the corner.
真想看看，数字资产、数据中心和大学橄榄球这三者怎么凑到一块儿的。
Love to see as we as we end the show, love to see the the cross section of digital assets, data centers, and college football.
今天就到这里吧。
But that's gonna do it for us.
Brandon，非常感谢你抽出时间。
I really appreciate your time, Brandon.
非常感谢你的时间，亨特。
I really appreciate your time, Hunter.
也谢谢所有正在直播中收听的朋友们。
Thank you to everybody else who's listening on the live.
今天表现得很棒。
Solid showing today.
周五早上辛苦了，谢谢。
Appreciate it on Friday morning.
给个赞吧。
Give us a thumbs up.
如果是新朋友，记得点右下角的订阅按钮。
If you're new on the bottom right, hit the subscribe button.
这周我们推出了好多精彩的访谈。
We have a ton of great interviews that went out this week.
Coinbase和Robinhood那几期，还没听的话推荐回去补一下。
Coinbase, Robinhood, go back and listen to those if you haven't.
那里头有巨大的超额收益。
There's huge, huge alpha there.
布伦丹和布莱斯把那些采访做得太棒了。
Brendan and Bryce crushed those interviews.
你真得回头去听听那些采访。
You have to go back and listen to those.
下周，布莱斯和我要去纽约市外参加一个叫‘Out East Conference’的大会，主办方是Thai。
Next week, Bryce and I are heading to a conference outside of New York City at the Out East Conference presented by the Thai.
我们会跟很多业内人士和内容创作者深入交流，把精彩内容带回来分享给大家。
We're gonna be sitting down with tons of insiders, tons of individuals doing a ton of great content that we're gonna bring back for you.
所以再次提醒，记得点订阅按钮。
So again, hit that subscribe button.
绝对不能错过。
You're not gonna wanna miss it.
感谢大家周五早上抽空收听，今天就到这里了。
Thank you all for tuning in on a Friday morning, but that's all for now.
大家再见。
Goodbye, everybody.
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