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八月是整理衣柜的好时机，把夏天没用上的东西清掉，为秋季衣橱做准备，再升级一下那些你每周都会穿的基础款。
August is a good time to clean up the closet a little bit, get rid of the summer stuff that you didn't use, prepare for your autumn wardrobe, and upgrade the basics that you'll actually reach for every week.
这就是我喜欢Quince的原因。
That's why I like Quince.
他们做的单品少而精，质感高级，但没有奢侈品的溢价。
They make fewer better pieces that feel premium, but don't come with the luxury markup.
对我来说，我最常穿的是那件100%欧洲亚麻抽绳沙滩裤和配套衬衫。
For me, the piece I keep coming back to is the 100% European linen drawstring beach pants with the matching shirt.
我喜欢在沙滩度假时穿它们，因为很方便。
I love wearing them on beach vacations because they're easy.
透气舒适，看起来搭配得体，又不会让人觉得我刻意打扮。
They're breathable, comfortable, and they look put together without feeling like I'm trying too hard.
白天随便一套就能出门，在水边穿也行，晚上稍微搭配一下也能显得正式点。
Throw them on during the day, wear them by the water, or dress up a little bit at night.
这种百搭的单品才是我真正会穿的，因为它用途多样。
That's the kind of staple I actually use because it has versatility.
而这正是Quince做得好的地方。
And that's really what Quince does well.
他们专注于那些更实用的日常单品，比如超柔软的有机棉T恤，还有高级木兰和羊绒毛衣，既能应付日常上班，也能穿去晚餐约会。
They specialize in everyday pieces that work harder like ultra soft organic cotton tees and premium magnolia and cashmere sweaters that can go from a casual workday to dinner out.
如果你的基础款开始显得旧了，Quince让你轻松升级，用仅60美元就能买到高级牛仔和修身卡其裤，其版型、结构和面料质感都堪比奢侈设计师品牌。
If your basics are starting to feel worn out, Quince makes it easy to upgrade with premium denim and tailored chinos from just $60 with the fit structure and quality fabrics you'd expect from a luxury designer brand.
Quince所有商品的价格都比同类品牌低50%到80%。
Everything at Quince is priced 50 to 80% less than similar brands.
他们直接与道德工厂合作，省去中间商，所以你付的是高品质的钱，而不是品牌溢价。
They work directly with ethical factories and cut out the middleman, so you're paying for high quality, not brand markup.
而且不只是服装。
And it's not just clothing.
Quince已经成了从酒店级床品和浴室用品，到高级厨具和旅行必备品的首选。
Quince has become a go to for everything from hotel quality bedding and bath essentials to premium cookware and travel must haves.
各位，你们听我推荐了这么久，我一直说你们得去quince.com看看，因为那个网站逛起来特别有意思，选择太多了。
Guys, you've been hearing it for so long now how I tell you you have to go to quince.com because the website is so fun for all the options that they have.
这个网站逛起来特别有意思，价格也真的没得比。
It's a great website to go click around and the prices can't be beat.
升级你的日常穿搭，下载Quince App，享受独家优惠。
Upgrade your everyday, download the Quince app for app exclusive offers.
访问 quince.com/crypto10one。
Go to quince.com/crypto10one.
享受免费送货和365天退货服务，现在加拿大和英国也支持了。
Get free shipping on your order and 365 returns now available in Canada and The UK too.
网址是 quince.com/crypto10one。
That's quince.com/crypto10one.
Brendan，欢迎回到节目，我的朋友。
Brendan, welcome back to the show, my friend.
你还好吗？
How are you?
我挺好的，兄弟。
I'm doing great, man.
很高兴回来。
It's good to be back.
我喜欢做这些总结。
Love doing the rundowns.
今天有很多话题要聊，跟往常这些活动期间一样，但很高兴回来，朋友。
Man, there's a lot to talk about here today as there usually is during these events, but happy to be back, my friend.
没错。
Absolutely.
我觉得我们得先从那个冷钱包被黑的事件说起。
I think we gotta jump right off with the, with the cold cold card wallet hack.
我来提一下。
I'll bring that up.
这是钱包领域比较重大的黑客事件之一。
It's it's one of the bigger hacks for wallets.
他们称之为比特币历史上最严重的硬件钱包被黑事件。
They're calling it the worst hardware wallet hack in Bitcoin history.
但这里有一些细节你需要了解，归根结底，这其实是公司的问题。
But there's some nuance to this that you need to understand, and it comes down to, it it really was the company's fault.
而且，你知道，我们不想看到任何人亏钱。
And it's, been, you know, we don't wanna see anybody lose money.
发生这种事当然很令人难过。
It's obviously very sad when that happens.
这就是那种你得自己做功课、找对的公司、做对的事情的情况。
And it's one of those things where where you gotta do your research and and find the right companies and do the right things.
不过，关于这次黑客攻击和漏洞，其实是通过公司本身发生的，并不是区块链被攻破，也不是什么AI量子威胁。
But, any insight into this hack and the exploit that was really through the company, it wasn't a blockchain breach or an AI quantum threat.
你得小心，因为很多人会拿这个说法大做文章，把它往那个方向带偏，但实际上，我觉得这不像SBF那种恶意行为者。
You gotta be careful because there's a lot of people that are gonna run with this narrative and kinda take it down that rabbit hole, but it was simply just kind of you know, I don't think it was a bad actor as in nefarious, like an SBF
对。
Yeah.
但不管怎样，这仍然是一个不负责任的行为，没有尽到对客户的尽职调查。
But a bad actor nonetheless of of not doing their customers' due diligence.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得这更像是
I think it was a
疏忽大意，而不是有意为之，不知道这么说你能不能理解。
bit more of carelessness as opposed to intentionality, if that makes sense.
可能有点
Maybe a little
偷工减料，也可能只是有点无知。
bit of corner cutting, maybe just a little bit of ignorance.
说实话，我也不太确定。
You know, really not sure.
不过我觉得你刚才说得很有道理，关键点在于，这件事的核心教训不是钱包不安全、比特币不安全、区块链不安全。
But I think you made a good point here and that the main takeaway is not that wallets aren't safe, Bitcoin isn't safe, blockchains aren't safe.
那是对这件事的误解。
That's a misunderstanding of what happened here.
你说得对。
And you're right.
这是公司和固件的错，这篇文章稍微提到了这一点。
It was on the fault of the company and the firmware, this talks about it a little bit.
Tevo，你找的这篇X上的文章确实很不错。
It's actually a really good article you pulled up, Tevo, here from X.
但这确实是公司的问题，归根结底在于他们生成那些种子码的方式。
But it's it's really due to the company, and it comes down to how they they created those seeds.
对吧？
Right?
是纯粹随机的吗？
Is it purely random?
还是可以预测的？
Is it predictable?
嗯，正如这篇文章所说，这是一个固件漏洞。
Well, as it says in this post, it's a it's a firmware bug.
所以并不是说，天哪，所有钱包都不安全了。
So it's not to say, oh my gosh, all wallets are no longer safe.
区块链本身也不安全。
The blockchain itself is is not safe.
这根本不是这里发生的情况。
That's not at all what happened here.
所以那是一种误解。
And so that's a misunderstanding.
我觉得你会看到有人拿这个做文章。
I think you are going to see people run with that.
这算是现在的一个热点，我们还有另一篇文章可以展示，来进一步讨论这个问题。
It's a bit of a theme right now, and we'll have another post that we can kinda show to to talk about this a little bit more.
但现在的热点，以及能吸引点击和关注的东西，就是这种“什么都不安全了”的想法。
But the theme right now and the cool thing that'll get clicks and attention and whatever is this idea that nothing's safe anymore.
对吧？
Right?
什么都不安全了。
Nothing's safe.
区块链也好，不是区块链也好，现实世界也一样。
Blockchain, not blockchain, the normal world.
人工智能正在追着你跑。
AI is coming after you.
OpenAI和ChatGPT已经能够入侵公司的安全系统，而Therapix也在到处搞这种事。
OpenAI has and and ChatGPT has been able to go and breach security of companies, and then Therapix doing this left and right.
他们把这些东西放在测试环境里，结果它自己跑出来，开始攻击公司。
They're putting it in test environments, and it's breaking out, and it's hacking companies.
突然间，就传出消息说比特币不安全，区块链也不安全。
All of a sudden, know, you know, there's this news that Bitcoin's not safe and Blockchains aren't safe.
这不过是现在流行的说法罢了。
It's just the popular thing right now.
再说一次，这不过是为了博取点击量。
And, again, it's it's to get clicks.
不过这事儿确实发生了。
Now this did actually happen.
这确实很不幸，但再说一次，这并非因为量子计算或人工智能之类的鬼话，导致比特币、区块链或整个钱包系统不再安全。
It is super unfortunate, but, again, it's not because Bitcoin or the blockchain or wallets as a whole are no longer safe because of quantum or AI or any of that that that bullcrap.
这是对它的误解。
It's a misunderstanding of it.
所以如果你去看我们之前聊过的下一条消息，我记得这好像是比特币的CEO或者某位高管说的。
And so if you go to the next one that we had kind of talking about this, this was coming, I believe, from the Bitcoin CEO or one of the Bitcoin executives.
然后
And
节目的老朋友，迈克·贝尔希。
Friend of the friend of the show, Mike Belshie.
对。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
对，他说的就是，他看到这些帖子满天飞，然后他基本上就说，兄弟们，我放100个比特币到一个钱包里。
And, yeah, what what he says here is he's, like, seeing all this get posted, and he was basically like, guys, I'll put up a 100 Bitcoin in a wallet.
他这话说得有道理，因为他说要么是Anthropic的AI在搭建这些沙盒环境上太差劲了，要么这就是个绝妙的营销手段。
And he makes a good point because he says either Anthropic AI is terrible about building these sandboxes or this is just really great marketing.
也许两者兼有。
Maybe it's both.
但别再说什么‘我们搞出了这个东西，它到处在攻击，什么都不安全了’这种话了。
But enough of like, oh, we've created this thing and it's hacking everywhere and nothing's safe anymore.
还有人在推波助澜这种说法，他就说，你知道吗？
And people feeding into this narrative, he's like, you know what?
我放100个比特币到一个钱包里。
I will put a 100 Bitcoin in a wallet.
来拿吧。
Go get it.
这可不是小数目。
And that's a lot.
对吧？
Right?
你自己算算看。
You do the math.
100个比特币，按现在的价格。
A 100 Bitcoin at the current price.
我觉得大多数人看到这个都会想，如果我真有能破解这些钱包的东西，我肯定去拿。
I think most people look at that and be like, if I have something that can truly hack these wallets, I'll go get that.
他这是在给这个AI树靶子。
And he's putting a target on its back.
他把地址告诉你了。
He's telling you the address.
告诉你里面有多少钱。
He's telling you how much is in there.
如果事情真的像看起来那么厉害，那么，引号，好吧，那就这样。
And if things are truly as as good and great as it appears to be, quotations right, Well, there.
如果你有这个能力，就能拿到100个比特币的奖励。
It's a 100 Bitcoin reward if you have the capabilities.
不过，显然我觉得他不认为这钱会被人拿走。
Now, obviously, I don't think he believes it's going where.
我们也不觉得会有人能拿走。
We don't believe it's going anywhere.
这只是一个测试，意思是说，嘿。
It's just a test to say, hey.
他公开愿意把这个摆出来，是因为有一种说法是没什么东西是安全的。
He's publicly willing to kind of put this out there because there's this narrative that nothing's safe.
他是在挑战这种说法，声称这非常安全。
He's challenging it and saying it's perfectly safe.
让我给你所有你需要的信息，如果你真有这个本事，就去拿这些东西吧，它就会一直放在那里。
Let me give you all the information that you need to go and get access to this stuff if you truly have the capabilities, and it's just gonna sit there.
对吧？
Right?
它不会出任何问题的。
Nothing's gonna happen to it.
所以我挺喜欢这个的。
So I like this.
你知道，这可以说是我们节目的朋友做的天才营销。
You know, this is I I would say genius marketing from friend of the show.
那边的BitGo。
BitGo over there.
我喜欢这个。
I like this.
我看到这个的时候，我就觉得，这真是
I saw this, and I was like, this is
时机选得真聪明。
smart time for this.
这是一种独特的方式，试图重新掌控话语权，因为你知道，这种事情会越滚越大，尤其是当主流媒体或财经媒体不了解全部事实的时候。
It's a unique unique way to try to take back the narrative, because again, this snowballs and especially when, know, the mainstream media or the finance media, and they don't have all the facts.
甚至有时候这种新闻爆出来，大家根本不在乎事实真相。
Or even sometimes when a story like this breaks, people don't even care to have all the facts.
他们就想直接拿来说事。
They just wanna run with it.
比如，哦，比特币被黑了，这个那个的，都是些大词儿，他们拿来放到自己的节目、专栏或者文章里，根本不需要保证事实准确。
Like, oh, hack Bitcoin, this, that, know, there's big buzzwords that they can then bring to their show or their column or their article, and they don't have to be factually right.
因为，说到底，我们这节目更偏向教育性，也尽量做得有趣、有娱乐性，但很多靠点击量吃饭的人，他们是按点击和播放量拿钱的。
Because, again, the game that, you know, I think we try to more go educational or out and we try to have fun on the show and be entertaining, but a lot of the people that are going just for clicks, they get paid per click, they get paid per view.
所以事实到底对不对，对他们来说真的不重要。
And so it doesn't truly matter whether it's factual or not.
所以我们就是要澄清这一点。
And so that that's what we're trying to debunk here.
这也是贝尔在对抗的东西。
That's what Bell she's fighting against.
这就是我们在这个平台上想做的——教育大家。
That's what we try to do here on the platform is educate.
我们教育大家的一个重点，也是给圈内所有人的建议，就是保护好自己的加密货币安全。
And one of our education, and tips and for everybody in the space is, keeping your crypto safe.
所以当这种事情发生时，我们会和团队沟通。
And so when something like this comes, we talk to the team.
显然，我们有大量免费内容，在YouTube和播客上有数不清的时长，但我们在社区里也有一些更深入的内容，很多人也参与其中。
Obviously we have tons of free content, countless hours on YouTube and podcasting, but we do have some more in-depth stuff behind the community that a lot of people are involved with as well.
所以当我们做这些节目时，会顺便做个推广。
And so when we do these shows, like to have a promo.
针对这个具体的话题和情况，我们推出了《保护加密货币安全终极指南》。
And so for this, with this specific topic and situation happening, we have our ultimate guide to keeping your crypto safe.
这是最新更新的《保护加密货币安全终极指南》，在节目推广期间只需3美元。
It's the new updated ultimate guide to keeping your crypto safe today for just $3 during this promo for the show.
请查看YouTube和播客下方的描述。
Check the description below on YouTube and on the podcast.
我们真的希望大家都能保护好自己的加密货币安全。
We really, you know, we want everybody to keep their crypto safe.
这个领域变化很快，你得不断了解自己在做什么。
This is an ever changing landscape of, you know, kind of understanding what you do.
不管你是用硬件钱包，还是把币放在交易所，我们都会详细讲一遍。
If you're a hard, you know, hard well hard wallet or you're keeping on exchanges, we run down through the whole thing.
通常这个产品要卖100美元，但遇到这种情况，我们希望每个人都能用上。
Normally, I think this is like a $100 product, but when you see something like this, we wanna make sure it gets into everybody's hands.
所以今天在节目里，只要3美元，就能拿到最新的加密货币安全终极指南。
So today on the show, $3, the new ultimate guide to keeping your crypto safe.
节目继续，下面的链接大家记得去看看。
Check the links below as we move on in the show.
Brendan，贝莱德还在继续布局。
Brendan BlackRock continuing to build.
Larry Think说到做到，宣布与以太坊合作，推出代币化货币基金，而且你刚才也提到，你看到了Solana。
Larry Think, putting his money where his mouth is, announcing a partnership with Ethereum on, some tokenized money funds, and then you you brought up as well that you saw, Solana.
那我们就来聊聊这两个话题。
So let's walk through both of those.
对。
Yeah.
这是我们内部一直在讨论的一个重要主题，如果你们是我们的会员，或者只是看过我们的简报，就会知道代币化一直是个大话题。
This has been a big theme that we've talked about internally if you guys are members over here or if you just watch the rundowns, a big theme has been tokenization.
实际上，我们有一个小组，上周五刚出了一份完整的报告。
In fact, we have, you know, one of our groups, we just did a whole report on this with last Friday.
感谢所有参与的人。
Shout out to all of you who joined.
我们一直在强调，代币化是值得密切关注的重点领域之一，而且现在势头很猛。
But we've been talking a lot about how tokenization is is one of the big areas to keep an eye out on here, and that is a big push.
对吧？
Right?
Robinhood 在做这件事。
Robinhood's doing it.
BlackRock 也在做。
You see BlackRock doing it.
你看，像Nate这样的加密货币原生玩家显然也参与其中。
You see Nate crypto native players obviously being a part of this.
到处都有人在做这件事。
There's people everywhere.
对吧？
Right?
传统金融、资产管理公司、银行，还有原生加密项目都在搞这个，而且过去几年里，尤其是最近一年左右，它的增长非常迅猛。
Traditional finance, asset managers, banks, or native crypto projects all doing this, and it's exploding in terms of growth over the last couple of years here, especially in the last year or so.
不过，是的，贝莱德这边推出了两个新的代币化货币市场基金。
But, yeah, BlackRock here has launched two new tokenized money market funds.
屏幕上第一个是620亿美元的贝莱德精选国债基金。
The first one that you have on the screen here is the $6,200,000,000 black BlackRock, excuse me, select treasury fund.
然后还有第二个，叫BRSRV，和它一起推出。
And then we have a second one here, which is b r s r v alongside it.
这真的很酷。
So this is really cool.
这基本上是以太坊这边的情况。
This is basically the Ethereum side of things.
然后我们再看Solana这边，这个也是刚宣布的，他们正在向SEC提交申请，要在Solana上发行一个代币化的基金份额。
And then if we go over to the Solana one, which was just announced as well, they are filing here with the SEC to issue a tokenized fund of shares on Solana.
所以听我说。
So listen.
我知道有很多极端主义者觉得一切都会是以太坊的天下。
I know there's a lot of Maxis out there who think everything's gonna be Ethereum.
一切都会是Solana的天下。
Everything's gonna be Solana.
一切都会是其中某一个的天下。
Everything's gonna be one or the other.
但我们这边呢，两个都喜欢。
Over here, we like them both.
对吧？
Right?
我们两个团队都请来过节目。
We've had both of the teams on the show.
我们请过一些最核心的以太坊开发者。
We've had some of the the key, most core Ethereum developers.
我们也请过一些最早的比特币开发者。
We've had some of the earliest Bitcoin developers.
Solana团队也来过无数次了。
We've had the Solana team on countless times.
这三个我们都看好。
We believe in all three.
我不认为非得是孤注一掷、一条链通吃天下的局面。
I don't think it has to be an all or nothing or one chain wins all scenario.
贝莱德之所以关注这个，说要在以太坊和Solana上都做这类事情，是有原因的。
And there's a reason why BlackRock's looking at this and saying, let's do this kind of thing on Ethereum and on Solana.
我觉得这两者都不会消失。
And I don't really see either going anywhere.
所以这是个重大消息。
So it's a big news.
我觉得这有助于巩固Solana和以太坊的地位。
I think what this does is it helps solidify the place of Solana and Ethereum.
对吧？
Right?
因为大家会担心，哎呀，万一这一切都消失了呢？
Because there's this fear of like, oh, well, what if this all disappears?
万一它没影了呢？
What if it goes anywhere?
朋友们，他们可是想搞这个的。
Guys, they wanna be building this.
全球最大的资产管理公司正在投入数十亿美元，或者说通过这些产品创造数十亿美元的价值。
You have the largest asset manager in the world spending billions of dollars or creating billions of dollars in these products.
而我认为，这有助于巩固这些资产作为长期基础设施的地位。
And I think that what that does is that helps solidifies the place that these assets sit as infrastructure for the long term.
所以我很看好这个。
So I like this.
如果你是Solana的粉丝，这是个好消息。
If you're a Solana fan, it's good news.
如果你是Ethereum的粉丝，这也是个好消息。
If you're an Ethereum fan, it's good news.
如果你接触过代币化，那这对你来说可能是个非常好的消息。
If you have exposure to tokenization, it's probably really good news for you.
所以，这很不错。
So good stuff here.
现在大家都在聊人工智能，但真正有用的人工智能是那种能帮你节省时间、做出明智决策、减轻工作负担的。
Everybody is talking about AI right now, but the AI that actually matters is the kind that saves you time, helps you make smart decisions, and takes work off your plate.
如果你在经营电商生意，物流就是那种要么让你顺利推进、要么让你彻底拖慢节奏的事情之一。
And if you're running an e commerce business, shipping is one of those things that can either keep you moving or completely slow you down.
所以，我喜欢ShipStation。
That's why I like ShipStation.
这是一个专为电商企业打造的一站式订单履行平台，其人工智能基于全球数十亿次发货积累的几十年真实运输数据训练而成。
It's an end to end order fulfillment platform built for e commerce businesses, and its AI is trained on decades of real shipping data from billions of shipments across the world.
所以，你不再需要手忙脚乱地切换各种工具，ShipStation能帮你掌控全局。
So instead of juggling a bunch of different tools, ShipStation helps you stay in control.
它能在库存不足时提醒你，推荐最优的承运商和费率，自动处理任务，并随着业务增长帮你节省时间。
It can alert you when your stock is low, recommend the best carrier selections and rates, automate tasks, and help you save time as you grow.
你还能获得跨销售渠道的库存同步、自动比价、品牌化退货门户，以及会计和CRM软件的集成，全部集中在一个地方。
You also get inventory syncing across sales channels, automatic rate shopping, a branded returns portal, and integrations with accounting and CRM software all in one place.
如果我在经营电商店铺，这正是我想要的工具，因为一旦订单开始涌入，你绝不想让物流成为拖后腿的环节。
If I were running an e commerce store, this is exactly the kind of tool I'd want because once the orders start coming in, you don't want shipping to be the thing that's holding you back.
超过100万家企业已经信赖ShipStation来优化和扩展他们的物流业务。
Over 1,000,000 businesses have trusted ShipStation to optimize and scale their shipping.
你越早切换，就能越早开始节省时间和金钱。
The sooner you switch, the sooner you start saving time and money.
今天就注册ShipStation，使用优惠码crypto，即可享受60天免费服务，访问shipstation.com即可开始。
Get started with ShipStation today and get sixty days free at shipstation.com with code crypto.
网址是shipstation.com，优惠码是crypto。
That's shipstation.com, code crypto.
Shipstation.com，优惠码crypto。
Shipstation.com, code crypto.
税费和手续费另算。
Taxes and fees apply.
不知道你怎么样，但我总是突然发现该吃晚饭了。
I don't know about you, but dinner sneaks up on me all the time.
打开冰箱才发现，手头没有现成的蛋白质食材。
I'll open the fridge and realize I have no protein ready.
这时候我可不想跑去超市，临时采购，还得碰运气看店里还剩什么肉或汉堡。
And at that point, I'm not trying to go to the store, make a last minute grocery run, and gamble on whatever meats or burgers are left at the store.
所以，奥马哈牛排就成了冰箱里的好储备。
That's why Omaha Steaks is a great freezer move.
就像家里有个信得过的肉铺，随时都能拿到高品质的蛋白质。
It's like having a trusted butcher at home and quality protein when you need it the most.
奥马哈牛排凭借一百多年的历史赢得了口碑。
Omaha Steaks has earned its reputation with over a hundred years.
这些牛肉和全国厨房里信赖的牛肉一样，直接送到你家门口。
It's the same beef trusted in kitchens across the country, shipped straight to your door.
牛排馆的品质，但不用花牛排馆的价格。
Steakhouse quality without the steakhouse prices.
你的家人会以为晚餐花了好几个小时，其实并没有。
Your family will think dinner took hours, but it didn't.
只需要几分钟。
Just minutes.
如果你还没试过，那个汉堡完美组合套餐是个绝佳的入门选择。
And if you never tried them, the burger perfection flight is the perfect place to start.
你会得到20个优质牛排汉堡，用五种不同的牛排部位制成。
You get 20 premium steak burgers made from five different cuts of steak.
四个菲力牛排汉堡、四个纽约客牛排汉堡、四个肋眼牛排汉堡、四个牛胸肉汉堡和四个沙朗牛排汉堡。
Four filet mignon burgers, four New York Strip burgers, four rib eye burgers, four brisket burgers, and four sirloin burgers.
各位，这简直就是汉堡界的山寨币组合。
Guys, this is the altcoin basket of burgers right here.
如果我和布莱恩一起做节目，我们肯定会对半分这些汉堡，因为你知道我们夏天多喜欢烧烤。
If me and Brian were on the rundown, we would be divvying these up fifty fifty because you know how we like to grill in the summer.
所以你拿到的不仅仅是一盒汉堡，而是不同的风味、不同的口感，还有真正的牛排馆风格多样性，可以扔到烤架上，或者工作日快速烹饪。
So you're not just getting a box of burgers, you're getting different flavor profiles, different textures, and real steakhouse style variety you can throw on the grill or cook up fast during the week.
今天就到omahasteaks.com试试这个汉堡完美组合吧。
Try the burger perfection flight at omahasteaks.com today.
20个顶级牛排汉堡只要79.99美元，使用优惠码beef还能再减35美元。
That's 20 premium steak burgers for just $79.99, plus get $35 off with the promo code beef.
在omahasteaks.com结账时输入优惠码beef立减35美元，具体条款请查看网站。
That's omahasteaks.com promo code beef for $35 off at checkout terms apply, see site for details.
对。
Yeah.
大楼，大楼还在继续。
The building, the building continues.
没错，这期节目一直就是这个主题。
Again, that's been the theme of this show.
在继续之前，我们想感谢一下聊天室的朋友们，周二下午还挺热闹的。
Before we move on, we want to give a shout out to the chat, a little active here on a Tuesday afternoon.
很高兴看到你，迈克尔，以前叫东海岸龙虾，来自新斯科舍省哈利法克斯。
You love to see that Michael formerly known as East Coast Lobster from Halifax, Nova Scotia.
今天这期节目真是国际化了。
It's an international rundown today.
我们有，博士。
We've got, Doctor.
鲍勃，博士。
Bob, Doctor.
加州的鲍勃。
Bob in California.
我这周晚些时候要去加州。
I'll be heading out to California later this week.
还有乔，来自佛罗里达村庄的乔·B，也是佛罗里达人。
And then Joe, Joe B from the villages in Florida, fellow Florida man.
真高兴看到这个。
Love to see that.
约翰也在直播间里。
We got John in here as well.
约翰，还有聊天室里的各位，告诉我们你们在哪里收看。
Let us know where, where you're watching in from John and anybody else in the chat.
我们非常感谢大家的收听。
We really appreciate everybody listening.
新朋友请在右下角点个赞，再点一下订阅按钮。
Give us a thumbs up bottom right if you're new, hit the subscribe button.
我们每周都会做好几次节目。
We do this multiple times a week.
内容很有趣，还能让你了解加密货币市场的最新动态。
Have a lot of fun and keep you informed in the crypto markets.
说到加密货币市场，有一件事得实话实说，Brendan。
And one thing going on in the crypto markets, just, you got to call a spade a spade, Brendan.
表面上看你可能不喜欢，但我认为从长远来看，这又是我们常说的筑底过程的一部分——交易活动正在减少。
And at face value, you might not like this, but I think over time, this is again, the bottoming process of stuff that we like to talk about is, trading activity is declining.
我觉得这件事可以从两方面来看。
And I think you can look at this from both sides.
你是个活跃的交易者，所以我把这个想法抛出来，听听你的看法。
You're an active trader, so I'll tee this as a thought and get your opinion on it.
当交易活动像这样下降，甚至跌到今年的最低点，这其实可以看作是筑底过程中的又一个信号。
When trading activity is declining like this, kind of seeing it of of its lowest levels of the year, it's kind of a sign of it could be you could add this to the data of the bottoming process again.
对吧？
Right?
因为交易量并不一定意味着价格上涨。
Because trading volume doesn't mean necessarily prices going up.
有时候交易量暴增，价格反而下跌，波动加剧，因为大家都想抛售离场。
You get huge spikes of trading volume and prices going down and the volatility because people want to sell and get out of their positions.
所以，我把它看作是我底部形成过程中的一个参考指标。
So, I kind of look at this as I add it to the box of my bottoming process.
过去几个月我们收集了很多数据，一步步验证了这些迹象。
We've done a lot of data over the last couple months of of kind of ticking the box of, hey.
这看起来就像是底部形成过程刚开始时的样子。
This is kind of something that looks like when we start the bottoming process.
虽然没人能精准预测最低点在哪一刻，但交易活动确实在减少。
And, nobody can pick the exact bottom of the tick, but, trading activity is declining.
你同意这个看法吗？
Do you agree with that?
还是不同意？
Disagree?
你怎么想的？
What are your thoughts?
对。
Yeah.
我基本同意。
I would largely agree.
我觉得这是每个熊市都会出现的情况。
I think that this is the kind of thing that you see in every bear cycle.
对吧？
Right?
没什么特别的。
It's not anything different.
随着熊市持续，交易者减少是合理的。
As the bear market goes on, it makes sense that there's less traders.
对吧？
Right?
大家都在亏钱。
People are losing money.
有人被强制平仓，等等。
People are getting liquidated, etcetera.
当市场上涨，处于那种狂热的牛市时，交易活动总是更活跃，成交量更大，流动性也更强，而随着熊市持续，这些自然会减少。
When the market's going up and you're in a euphoric bull market, there's always going to be more trading activity, more volume, probably more liquidity, and it's just naturally gonna be less as the bear market goes on.
但这正是推动最终投降时刻到来的因素。
But that's what help feeds into the final capitulation moment.
对吧？
Right?
因为人们正在放弃。
Because people are giving up.
他们不再交易。
They aren't trading.
这就是投降的本质。
That's what capitulation is.
基本上在每个周期的底部你都能看到这种情况。
And you see that at the bottom of every cycle pretty much.
所以这并不让我感到意外。
So this doesn't shock me.
其实，这反而让我有点受到鼓舞，觉得，嘿。
In fact, I would say that it somewhat motivates me to say, hey.
就我个人而言，当然没人能预知未来，但我认为我们可能正进入这轮熊市的最后阶段。
Personally, again, no one is a crystal ball, but I think that we are entering into what could be the final stages of this bear market.
如果参考过去的周期，大概会在今年秋天左右出现转折，可能早一点，也可能晚一点，但大致就在那个时间点。
I think if you're if you're going off past cycles, you would expect that to probably happen sometime around the fall of this year, maybe earlier, you know, maybe a little bit later, but roughly around then.
而且，如果你看其他相似之处，无论是技术面、基本面，还是单纯做历史分析，这种迹象通常出现在熊市见底、行情即将反转之前。
And then I think if you're looking at similarities other similarities, whether it's technicals or fundamentals or even just doing historical analysis, this is the kind of thing that you would expect to see at, like, the trough of a bear market before things actually do turn around.
所以我很高兴你提到这个，因为肯定有很多人看到这个会想。
So I I like that you brought that up because I'm sure a lot of people are gonna look at this.
他们会说，天哪。
They're gonna go, oh my gosh.
这又是一个我不该关注加密货币的理由。
It's another reason why I shouldn't be looking at crypto.
我反而想换个角度说，这恰恰是你应该开始关注加密货币的理由，尤其是当你看到它开始反转并加速上涨的时候。
I would actually flip it on its head here and say that this is a reason why you should start looking at crypto, especially if you see this start to flip and accelerate back to the upside.
如果你开始看到资金从净流出转为净流入，交易活动开始增加，一些加密货币突破关键均线创出新的阶段高点，那我真的建议你开始密切关注了，因为到了这个阶段，你就要寻找最后的投降点。
If you start seeing flows increasing from net negative to net positive, if you start seeing trading activity increasing, if you start seeing some of these cryptos breaking out to, like, new swing highs above some of those key moving averages again, I'd say really start to keep an eye on it because it's once we get to this point that you look for that final point of capitulation.
而且往往是在你最意想不到的时候，在情况最黑暗的时候，转折就发生了。
And it's when you least expect it kind of when it's at its darkest that the turnaround itself happens.
这才是真正的转折。
And that's what makes it a turnaround.
对吧？
Right?
大多数人都已经放弃了。
Most people have given up.
大多数人都开始转向其他地方了。
Most people have started looking elsewhere.
然后转折就来了。
And there we go.
而且，没有极度的恐惧，就不可能身处黑暗之中。
And you can't be in the darkness without extreme fear.
我们其实一直在看那些经典指标，但确实没怎么仔细核对过。
And and we kind of doing the the classics, but we haven't really been checking in too much.
因为情况一直就这样。
Cause it's just been what it is.
我们处于恐惧之中。
We're in fear.
所以没有这种极度的恐惧，你就无法体会到黎明前最黑暗的那种心态。
And so you can't hit that darkest before the dawn mentality without this extreme fear.
再说一次，我们基本上——我是说，我正看着这张图，想看看整个夏天我们是否真的摆脱了恐惧。
And again, we've basically, I mean, I I'm, this is one chart I'm trying to see if we've even broken out of fear all summer.
因为六月初的时候，我们跌了下来，进入了——你知道的——个位数区间，跌到了10以下。
Cause again, beginning of June, we popped down, we were in the, you know, 10, we went down to the single digits.
我们跌到了8。
We went down to eight.
然后这个指标整个夏天的最高点似乎是33。
And then looks like our high for the summer on this indicator was 33.
所以我不太确定33这个数值会让我们处于什么位置。
So I'm not quite sure where 33 might land us.
我觉得那可能还是恐惧，说实话。
That might be I think that might be fear still, honestly.
看起来我们整个夏天都处于恐惧和极度恐惧之中。
So looks like we've had a summer of fear and extreme fear.
然后，我们有一阵子没看的东西，就是趋势。
And then again, something we haven't looked at in a while is the, again, trends.
其实都是老一套，对吧？
It's all the same stuff, right?
交易、趋势、极度恐惧。
Trading, trends, extreme fear.
现在就是最低点，你知道的，就是最低。
It's the lowest, you know, it's just the lowest right now.
你可以把这理解为一种方式：要么卖掉离场，就像人们说的‘拿球回家’，要么就在这里深入研究，寻找长期投资机会，把钱放在能为你工作的地方，努力找出未来金融可能的样子。
And you know, you could take that as one way as you can sell and and go home, take your ball, go home as they say or this is where you wanna dive in and do the research and try to find the long term, you know, investments in places that you wanna, you know, park your money in and make it work for you and and try to find out what the future finance could be.
再说一次，这些决定只能你自己来做。
And again, you can only make those decisions.
我们不提供个人理财建议，但你知道，就连著名的沃伦·巴菲特也说过，要在血流成河的时候买入。
We don't give personal financial advice, but you know, even the famous, Warren Buffett, you know, says, you know, you wanna buy when there's blood in the streets.
对吧？
Right?
所以，这绝对像是那种时刻之一，我们继续努力做研究，寻找亮点，而我们也确实找到了一些。
So, it just definitely feels like one of those times as we continue to try to do the research, find the bright spots, which we've had.
对吧？
Right?
之前我们在七月有过一个‘罗宾汉之夏’。
The we had a Robin Hood summer earlier, in July.
那还挺有意思的。
That was a fun one.
我知道布莱恩和乔选了一些赢家。
I know Brian and Joe are picking some winners.
我知道你和你的交易课程。
I know you and your trading course.
你，你知道，美联储那边有些突破，你自己也在玩一些动量交易。
You you, you know, the Fed some, some breakouts and playing playing some momentum yourself.
但我们也聊过我和你，你知道，就我而言，我不是一个动量交易者，但在这个时间点，我喜欢持有长期买入的仓位。
But also we've talked about me and you, how, you know, me specifically, I'm not much of a momentum trader, but I like to you know, at this point in time, I have the long term buys on.
我不去多想它。
I'm not thinking about it.
我只是，你知道，每周买一点比特币，一点以太坊，这就是我现在在做的，我甚至都不去想它。
I'm just, you know, every every week, a little bit of Bitcoin, a little bit of Ethereum is what what I got going right now, and I don't I don't even think about it.
对。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
我，你知道，我这边有句话，就是有时候得踩油门。
I'm I'm you know, I have a saying over here where there's a time to step on the gas.
有时候要踩刹车，有时候就滑行一下。
There's a time to hit the brakes, and then there's just a time to coast.
我觉得在事情最不确定的时候，稍微滑行一下或者踩踩刹车都没问题。
And I think when things are the most uncertain, it's okay to coast a little bit or even hit the brakes.
然后呢，你得能判断什么时候市场火热。
And then, you know, you just have to be able to identify, like, when things are hot.
那时候才该动用资金。
That's when you wanna use the capital.
那时候才该踩油门，大量交易山寨币。
That's when you wanna step on the gas, and that's when you wanna do a lot of Altcoin trading.
这是我们这边经常讨论的话题。
It's something that we talk about a lot over here.
在交易课程和内部资料里都有提到，但我特别想强调的一点是——山寨币季节热起来的时候，那是真热，速度也快，那才是交易的好时机。
Know inside the trading program and and other stuff internally, but something I really do try to hammer home is because when altcoin season is hot it's hot, then it's really hot, and it's really fast, and it is the thing to trade.
我们聊到很多人犯的错误是，他们误以为在整个市场周期的各个阶段都要全力押注山寨币，这其实并不理想。
I think the mistake that a lot of people do that we talk about is that a lot of people mistake and think, oh, I'm always going to step full gas pedal on altcoins at all stages of the market cycle, and that's just not really ideal.
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这并不理想。
It's not optimal.
而且风险回报比也不总是最好的。
It's not always the best risk versus reward either.
你知道，山寨币也有火热的时候，表现超过比特币、大盘股、股票和其他所有资产。
You know, again, there's a time where altcoins are hot and they're outperforming Bitcoin and large caps and equities and stocks and everything else.
关键是要能识别出那个时机，然后全力投入，那时候赚钱就像捡钱一样容易。
And it's it's being able to identify that and then stepping on the gas when Altcoins are hot is, like, that's where you just make stupid money.
同时，避开下跌行情也同样重要。
And by avoiding the downside, I would say that that's equally as important as well.
对，我同意。
So, yeah, I would agree.
现在嘛，市场上肯定还是有机会的。
You know, right now, you know, there's absolutely still trades out there.
我们正处于一个比较零散的热点季节。
We're in a bit more of a popcorn season.
所以你会看到一些精选的山寨币突然涨起来，或者整个市场基本平静，从二月份以来大部分时间都找到了一个不错的底部。
So you see select altcoins kinda popping off, or the whole market kind of chills, and it's found a nice little bottom here since February for the most part.
不过，是的，市场在震荡，同时一些精选的山寨币在上涨。
But, yeah, things chopping around a little bit while select altcoins pop off.
我很想看到那种反转发生。
I'd love to see that turnaround happen.
而且，我觉得那才是你真正开始看到潜力回归的时候。
And, again, I think that's when you really start to see the potential come back.
对。
Yeah.
而且，在波动期间，很多人都在卖，你知道，他们说散户在卖。
And, again, while there's volatility, a lot of people selling, you know, they say retailers selling during this.
他们不是唯一在卖的人。
They're not the only one.
迈克尔·塞勒还在继续卖。
Michael Saylor continues to sell.
我觉得这里用词很妙。
I I think it's a great use of verbiage here.
增加了美元储备，但问题是，怎么增加美元储备呢？
Increased its USD reserve but also that that's how do you increase the USD reserve?
卖一些比特币呗。
You sell some Bitcoin.
所以，塞勒继续卖比特币，他的策略就是买进拉伸。
So, Saylor continues to sell some Bitcoin and and his strategy here is buying stretch.
试图让它回到面值。
Trying to get that back to par.
看来我们可以用这个新功能，它这里会显示图表。
So I guess we can access this cool new feature where it gives you the charts here.
让我看看。
Let's see.
我还没怎么玩过这个。
I haven't played around with this yet.
不过你看，这个月或者这周，大概涨了将近5%，图表上显示是4.7%。
But as you can see, kind of the month or the week, I think it's like up five, almost 5% of the week, 4.7 on this chart.
我在时间线上看到好多人确实在操作这个交易。
There was a lot of people in the timeline I saw actually playing that trade.
我看到有人被《All In》播客调侃，说他在85美元左右卖了美光，买了Stretch。
I saw somebody was getting trolled by the all in podcast for selling Micron and buying Stretch at like 85 or something.
杰森开始调侃他，前几天还转发了那条推文。
Jason started trolling him and he just retweeted it the other day.
我没存链接，但大概就是说，嘿，这交易结果怎么样？
I didn't save the link, but it was like, hey, how did this trade work out?
你知道，就是平仓了，之类的。
You know, closing it out, you know, whatever.
所以大家都在做这个交易，这也有道理，但我的意思不是说我在推荐这个。
So people are playing the trade there and it makes sense because you know, in the sense that I'm not advocating for this.
我完全没参与这个交易，先声明一下。
I'm not in this trade at all, full disclosure.
但这挺有意思的，因为塞勒现在正把资金集中投到各个方向，似乎是想让价格重新回到面值附近。而且，布伦丹，如果我说错了你纠正我，但感觉他主要是在维护产品信心，也就是那个高股息产品，而不是在囤积比特币。
But it is interesting because Saylor is focusing his capital right now across the board to seemingly try to get stretched back to par or or, and and let me let me correct me if I'm wrong, Brendan, but like basically just trying to keep the confidence in the product, the high dividend product more so than, you know, stacking the Bitcoin.
所以感觉上，如果价格跌得太厉害，嗯，事后诸葛亮地说，这看起来还算是个不错的交易。
So it feels like, you know, if it ever got down too far, felt, I guess, Monday morning quarterback, it seemed like a decent enough trade.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得这件事吧，你知道，我一直是个怀疑论者。
I think with this, you know, obviously, listen, I've been a skeptic.
他们现在这么拼命，就是想维持大家对策略和Stretch的信心。
They're trying so hard here to keep confidence in strategy and in stretch and all of this.
可惜的是，他们又出来卖更多了。
They just it's unfortunate that they're coming out again and selling even more here.
而且我觉得他们已经开始招来不少批评了，怀疑的声音也出来了，因为迈克尔·塞勒本人不得不发表声明。
And it's gotten I think they've started to get a decent amount of of beef, and the skeptics have come out because Michael Saylor himself had to issue a statement.
还有，我记得策略公司的CEO上了CNBC或者彭博之类的财经节目，他也在谈这件事。
And you had the CEO, I believe, of strategy go on CNBC or Bloomberg or one of those big shows, and he was even talking about this.
然后迈克尔·塞勒基本上发了一篇长文，说，嘿，各位。
And Michael Saylor basically came out with this big post saying like, hey, guys.
我一直说我永远不会卖比特币，但我从没说过策略公司不会。
I've always said I was never gonna sell Bitcoin, but I never said strategy wasn't.
这跟他之前说的有点不一样了。
And it's kind of a little bit of a change in the narrative of what he's saying.
从技术上讲，他错了吗？
Is he, like, technically wrong?
嗯，也许没有。
You know, maybe not.
但我觉得很多人还是会觉得有点被误导了。
But I think a lot of people would feel just, again, a little bit misled there.
他说的是，我永远不会卖比特币。
He's saying, well, I would never sell Bitcoin.
我自己一个都没卖，但策略公司是个企业，我们不得不这么做。
I haven't sold any, but strategy is a business, and we have to.
而且，他们这么做是为了支持一个我本来有点怀疑的产品。
And, again, they're doing this to support a product which I have been a little bit of skeptic of.
我理解他们为什么必须这么做。
I understand why they have to do it.
对吧？
Right?
他们是想让它维持下去。
They're trying to keep it afloat.
他们是想保持信心。
They're trying to keep confidence.
如果这事儿搞砸了，那后果会非常非常严重，所以他们几乎别无选择。
It would be really, really bad if it just blew up in their face, so they almost have to.
但是，你知道，我的立场是，我宁愿这个策略不存在。
But, you know, my stance my stance on this is I would prefer stretch doesn't exist.
我宁愿他们沿用原来的商业模式，继续不断买入更多比特币，把它当作储备资产来用。
I would prefer if they just use their old business model, and they just try to continually purchase more Bitcoin, use it as a treasury.
是的，这基本上就是我的立场。
And, yeah, that's that's really where I stand.
我觉得他们在这里想做的事情太多了。
I think that they're trying to do too much here.
他们现在的成本已经低于平均水平了。
They're they're, you know, they're already below average cost.
我担心的是，他们一直都有这种营销话术。
That's the issue I have is that they've always had this marketing narrative.
不管是不是他们的实际政策，营销话术就是：你永远不需要卖掉你的比特币。
Whether it was their actual policy or not, the marketing narrative was you'll never have to you you should never sell your Bitcoin.
你永远不需要卖掉你的比特币。
You'll never have to sell your Bitcoin.
我们也永远不需要卖掉我们的比特币。
We'll never have to sell our Bitcoin.
这大概就是他们一直以来的营销话术。
That's kind of been the rough marketing narrative that they've had.
现在的问题是，他们一直在卖。
And then the issue now is that they're consistently selling.
我记得大概一个月前吧，他们还是净亏损状态。
I mean, we talked about, like, what, a month or so ago, they were net negative.
结果现在他们又出来卖，卖了一次又一次。
And so now they're coming out and they're selling again and selling again.
而且这一切都发生在他们成本价以下的时候。
And this is all happening while they're below cost basis.
所以大家看着这个情况，就会想，好吧。
So people are looking at it, and they're saying, okay.
那凭什么你们一直在卖，却要我们来买比特币呢？
Well, why should we be the ones buying Bitcoin when you guys are continually selling?
不如我们干脆学你们怎么做算了。
Like, what if we just mimic what you guys do?
你们可是那家大型比特币公司啊。
You guys are the big Bitcoin company.
那要不我们也开始卖比特币算了？
Well, what if we're just gonna go start selling our Bitcoin too?
没错。
It's right.
我觉得吧，他们应该以身作则，这就是我想说的。
You know, they should lead by example is, I guess, what I'm trying to say here.
当然，我理解这是做生意。
Again, I understand it's a business.
有些事情他们不得不做。
They have to do some of this stuff.
这是没办法的事。
It's a necessity.
但话说回来，我还是觉得他们应该起个带头作用。
But, again, I think they should lead by example.
而且大家不喜欢的是，他们不仅卖，还在低于成本价的时候卖。
And I don't think people like the idea that not only are they selling, but they're selling below cost basis.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得他们的成本价大概在七万五左右，虽然他们说这不太重要，但现在是亏损的。
I think their cost basis is, like, around 75,000, which they say doesn't matter too much, but it's in the red.
它会涨回去吗？
Will it go back?
我觉得会的。
I think it will.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得我们会远远超过七万五或者别的什么价位。
I think we're gonna go well above 75 k or whatever it is.
然后比特币会重新突破十万。
Then we'll go back above 100 k for Bitcoin.
这个我倒不担心。
I'm not worried about that.
问题在于，如果他们作为领头羊，却在低于成本价的时候卖出，那对普通投资者来说，这传递了什么信号？他们可不是像Tevo那样的人。
It's just the concept of if they're the ones trying to lead by example selling below cost basis, then what does that say to the average person who isn't like, you know, Tevo?
他们不像你。
They're not like you.
他们也不像我。
They're not like me.
他们投入的程度没这么深。
They're not in this as much.
我觉得这确实在一定程度上加剧了恐慌性抛售。
I think that has has fed into some of the panic selling a little bit.
所以我真的很希望看到回购计划重新启动。
So I would love to see the buy programs turn back on.
看到他们买国债、搞国债，或者别的什么，然后筹集现金，还说‘看，我们资产负债表上多了这么多现金’，这真的不太好看。
I don't think it's a good look that you see them buying treasuries or getting in the treasuries or, you know, whatever it is and raising cash, and they're saying, oh, look at all this new cash that we have on our balance sheet.
拜托，我们跟着你们可不是为了看这个。
It's like, guys, we don't follow you for that.
他们一直以来都是反对那些做法、支持比特币的。
They've they've always been, like, anti all of that and pro Bitcoin.
所以我觉得，与其增加他们的美元储备——比如，是的，策略上增加美元储备，2.5亿美元或者买入2.5亿美元——
So I think instead of raising, you know, their USD reserve, like, says, yeah, strategy increases the USD reserve, the 250,000,000 or buy 250,000,000.
而且现在他们这里有40亿美元，还要进行回购。
Also, now they have 4,000,000,000 here, and they're gonna repurchase.
那就这样吧。
It's like, okay.
那我们就用这笔钱。
Well, let's use that.
我们去买点比特币吧。
Let's go buy some Bitcoin here.
我们重新启动这个计划。
Let's turn it back on.
别再卖了。
Stop selling.
开始买入吧。
Start buying.
我的牢骚发完了。
I'm done with my rant.
但听我说。
But listen.
我对此也有同样的看法。
I have the same thoughts on this.
我真的希望他们能更多地净买入比特币，长期持有，并利用这些产品创造收益，而不是过度扩张。
I just I really wish that they would just become more of a net buyer of Bitcoin, hold for the long term, and create yields off of those products and not really stretch.
不。
No.
这些观点都很好，牢骚也发得不错。
It's all great points and a good rant.
也为我刚才的牢骚道个歉。
Just apologies for mine.
我刚才测试了一下，好像我的视频画面不太清晰。
I think I I was doing some testing, and it looks like my video is not coming in clear.
我真的希望正在看直播的各位，音频是清楚的。
I certainly hope my audio is to everybody watching the live.
如果音频清晰的话，给我们点个赞吧。
Give us a thumbs up if the audio is coming in clear.
抱歉今天视频有点模糊。
I apologize for the video, a little grainy today.
然后进入下一个话题前，想对直播观众说声抱歉。
And then as we move on to the next topic, just wanted to say sorry to the live watchers out there.
我们会调整好的，可能只是网络有点小问题。
We'll get it dialed in and just a little internet issue, I guess.
我想聊聊所有这些负面情绪，至少目前看来，虽然说法总在变，但根源似乎是《清晰法案》。
I wanted to touch base on all the negativity, kind of seems to stem at least right now, again, the narratives always change, but from the clarity act.
所以《清晰法案》通过的概率现在是最低的。
So the clarity act odds are at its lowest.
已经有一段时间了，因为现在看起来八月休会前不会进行投票了。
It's it's been in a while and, that's because August recess at this point looks like it's gonna happen without a vote.
等他们休会回来，谁知道中期选举前还能不能有投票机会呢？
And then when they come back, who's to say that we would even get a vote leading into the midterms, right?
我一直在推广这期节目。
And I I've pushed, I I promoted this episode.
这期节目已经上线了。
It's live.
是克里斯·詹卡洛，前CFTC主席，布莱斯几周前在我们参加的会议上采访了他。
It's Chris Giancarlo, former CFTC chairman, that Bryce sat down with at the conference we're at a couple, weeks ago.
这期节目已经发布了，我想有些听众，特别是播客的听众，已经听过了。
The episode is live, I think some of people, definitely the podcast listeners have watched it.
如果你还没听，建议你回去听听，我接下来会播放一段90秒的片段。
But if you haven't, you want to go back and listen to it, and I'm going to play a ninety second clip here.
他解释了为什么在他看来，《清晰法案》可能并不重要，以及加密货币无论有没有《清晰法案》都会继续发展。
And he explains why, you know, in his mind, maybe the Clarity Act does not matter and how crypto will move forward, with or without the Clarity Act.
所以这些就是我目前觉得最有趣的叙事，尤其是，其实谁都能这么说。
And so those are the narratives that I I find my most interesting right now, especially again, anybody can say that.
我可以说，布伦登·普莱斯或者任何人都能这么说。
I could say that Brendan Price or anybody could say that.
但这话出自一位前CFTC主席之口，他至今仍与SEC和CFTC保持着关系，认识现在那些位置上的人，他亲自阐述了这一点。
But coming from a former CFTC chairman who still has the relationships with the SEC and the CFTC, who knows these people personally who are in the positions now, he lays out the case.
那我们就来听听他怎么说。
So let's let's hear it from him.
它并没有人们想象的那么重要。
It doesn't matter as much as people think.
要说的话，我们反而把它夸大了。
If anything, we've made too big of a deal.
这个观点挺犀利的。
That's a hot take.
我喜欢这个说法。
I like that.
如果加密货币，如果《清晰法案》没通过，世界照样运转。
If crypto, if the Clarity Act doesn't pass, the world goes on.
互联网在过去三十年改变了世界，但也没有专门的授权法规。
The internet changed the world in the last thirty years and there's no authorizing statute.
这我还真不知道。
I didn't know that.
对。
Right.
就算没有《清晰法案》，这些创新照样会发生。
If we don't get a CLARITY Act, these innovations are gonna happen anyway.
是的。
Yeah.
首先，华尔街已经全面投入了。
First of all, Wall Street is all it.
DTCC和富兰克林坦伯顿在做的事情，已经不可能回头了。
There's no turning back on what DTCC is doing, what Franklin Templeton is doing.
不管有没有明确的法案，这一切都会继续推进。
All of this is gonna go forward whether clarity asks or not.
这不会消失的。
This is not gonna go away.
而且如果两年后风向完全转变，突然伊丽莎白·沃伦上台了，她也没法把这些连根拔起。
And if the pendulum fully swings for two years from now and suddenly Elizabeth Warren is gonna be present, she's not gonna rip this out of the ground.
到时候这些东西已经根深蒂固了。
It's gonna be too built in.
对。
Yeah.
实际上，她那一派的党内人士已经不再盯着加密货币，转而反对人工智能了。
In fact, her wing of the party's already moved on from anti crypto to anti AI.
是的。
Yeah.
那些反对技术进步的人又找到了新的目标来发泄他们阻止一切进步的欲望。
The Luddites have found a new target for their desire to stop all progress.
现在轮到人工智能了。
It's now AI.
加密货币已经根深蒂固了。
Crypto is too ingrained.
所以这一切都会发生。
So all of this is gonna happen.
开发者们，继续努力吧。
Builders out there keep building.
就算这个法案没通过，也不是世界末日。
If this doesn't pass, it's not the end of the world.
对。
Yeah.
世界照样运转。
It the world goes on.
互联网的第三次浪潮就要来了。
The third wave of the Internet is coming.
它已经来了。
It's here.
它不会倒退的。
It's not going back.
对。
Yep.
我们已经在往前走了。
We're already moving on.
我，我希望它能通过。
I I hope it passes.
我觉得里面有些好的东西。
I think there's some good things in it.
其中有一项内容是
One of the things that's in it
那我们就先停在这里，因为再说一遍，总结就是继续建设。
So we'll pause it there because again, the summary was keep building.
这已经根深蒂固了。
It's too ingrained.
而且，富勒那期节目深入探讨了他为什么这么认为。
And and the Fuller episode dives into why he thinks that.
布雷特问了一些很好的问题，来深入挖掘这个想法。
Breit's asked some great questions to kind of dive into that thought.
然后就是，嘿，不管这个法案通不通过。
And it was, Hey, whether this passes or not.
他反过来提到了现在的SEC主席和CFTC主席是谁，你知道，他们可以利用自己的领导职位来推行一些项目，让这件事继续下去。
And he kind of relayed back to who's the SEC chair, who's the CFTC chair now, you know, they have programs that they, in their leadership positions that they can enact to keep this going.
然后，两年后才是关键——在我把话题交给你、布伦丹，听听你的想法之前，我想说的是，这件事会变得根深蒂固。
And then again, two years from now is main point there before I hand it off to you, Brendan, your thoughts is that this thing's going be too ingrained.
就像，你知道，即使像你说的，如果莉兹·沃伦当了总统，它也已经根深蒂固了。
Like, know, even if, like you said, if Liz Warren becomes president, it's too ingrained.
你根本解不开它。
You won't be able to unravel it.
这就像要拆掉互联网一样。
It's like unraveling the Internet.
对吧？
Right?
今天怎么可能把互联网倒退回去呢？
If how can we roll back the Internet today?
以我们现在的生活方式，根本不可能。
It's just not possible with how we live.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得确实很像。
I I think it is very much like that.
对吧？
Right?
一旦它存在了，基础设施也建好了，你取消它就是在经济上自断后路。
It's once it's there and once the infrastructure there is there, it is you're economically shooting yourself in the foot.
我正想说，这简直是经济上的自杀。
I was gonna say it's economic suicide.
可能这么说有点夸张。
Maybe that's, like, bold.
但如果你有这么多大型金融机构，它们手里握着数十亿美元的资金和客户，那好吧。
But if you have all these big financial institutions with billions of dollars tied up in money and clients, it's like, alright.
你是想让所有客户都生气吗？
Were you gonna make all the clients mad?
你是想让所有银行都生气吗？
Are you gonna make all the banks mad?
你是想让所有机构投资者和资产管理公司都生气吗？
Are you gonna make all the institutional the asset managers mad?
你是打算把所有人都得罪一遍吗？比如那些手握重金的大机构，还有那些把钱投进去的普通人。
Are you gonna just, like, piss off everyone, like, the big institutions with all the money and the average people who have their money tied up in this?
结果两边都伤害了。
And you're gonna hurt both of them.
这不仅仅从财务角度看很愚蠢，从政治角度看也极其愚蠢。
It's just it's not only is it, like, stupid from a financial standpoint, but it's really, really stupid from, like, a political standpoint.
这就好比说，既然已经建好了，你非要把它拆掉，那就等于把那些最重要的人都得罪了。
It's like, let's piss off all the people who matter the most if you're gonna go rip it out of the ground after it's already there.
在项目还没完成之前阻止它是一回事。
Now it's one thing to prevent it before it's done.
但项目已经完工，一切就绪，人们都在用了，钱也花出去了，这时候再想把它拆掉，那就是另一回事了。
It's another thing to have it already done and everything settled in and people using it and the money have been spent and then trying to go and get rid of it.
所以我完全同意他的观点。
So I completely would agree with him there.
我觉得他说得太对了。
I think that he's spot on.
我自己都说不比他更好。
Couldn't have said it better myself.
太棒了。
Fantastic.
最后，如果过去几个月我们向大家展示的数据没能让你相信我们正在触底，那我们就此结束。
And then we'll wrap out if, if our bottoming data if the data that we presented to you over the last couple of months here doesn't show you that we think we're heading into the bottom.
确实有一个大家都能达成共识的数据点，就是吉姆·克莱默要卖掉他的比特币，或者说他打算清仓所有比特币。
There is certainly one data point that everyone can agree on, and it's Jim Cramer selling his Bitcoin or saying that he's gonna go sell all his Bitcoin.
那可真是一出好戏。
It was something.
来，看这条推文。
Here's the one, here's the tweet.
据报道，吉姆·克莱默正在出售他所有的比特币，这是CoinDesk的报道。
Jim Cramer has said he's reportedly selling all his Bitcoin point per coin desk.
他在自己的节目中也提到过几次。
He mentioned it a couple times on his show, as well.
然后整个加密货币圈都在说，嘿，我们回来了。
And then the entire crypto community is just saying like, hey, we're back.
我不能播放那段视频，因为里面有音乐，但大家都记得《宿醉》里那个场景，他们在车里大喊大叫说我们回来了。
I can't play it because there's music attached to it, but everybody remembers that scene from The Hangover where they're all just screaming in the car that they're back.
好了，这就是我今天最后一个数据点了。
Again, that's that's my last data point for the day.
如果我还不能让你相信，恐惧与贪婪指数整个夏天都处于恐惧区间，交易量在下降，塞勒在卖他的比特币，而比特币价格并没有因此暴跌，搜索量和趋势也处于今年的低点。
If I can't convince you that fear and greed index has been in fear all summer, the volume of trading is going down, Saylor selling his Bitcoin and it's not rocking rocketing the price of Bitcoin lower, and searches and trends are, you know, at the year low as well.
我还有一个数据要告诉你。
I got one more for you.
那就是吉姆·克莱默在卖他的比特币，这正好是反向克莱默操作，预示着上涨。
It's it's Jim Cramer selling his Bitcoin for the reverse Cramer play to the upside.
对。
Yeah.
我看到这个的时候，脸上露出了大大的笑容，因为我们有那个反向克莱默理论，特沃。
It's, when I saw that, it put a big old smile on my face because of that whole inverse Cramer theory that we have, Tevo.
我们等着瞧吧。
And we'll see.
对吧？
Right?
希望如此吧。
Fingers crossed.
我觉得反向克莱默指数应该是涨了。
The inverse Cramer index is up, I think.
也可能不对。
Could be wrong.
我记得去年它的表现超过了南希·佩洛西，或者至少是跟它差不多。
I think it outperformed Nancy Pelosi last year, or it was right up there with it.
表现真的非常非常好。
It was, like, really, really good performance.
从历史上看，确实是这样。
Historically, is.
当然，我很喜欢吉姆·克莱默。
Obviously, love Jim Cramer.
没有不尊重他的意思，但这确实有点像个梗。
No no shade thrown at him, but this is kind of a meme.
就像是，嘿。
It's like, hey.
不管他说什么，你就反着来，尤其是那些大事件，比如清仓或者全仓买入之类的。
Whatever he says, just, like, do the opposite of, especially when it's these big, like, notable events, like sell everything or go all in on this or something like that.
这往往是个不错的反转信号。
It tends to be a good turnaround.
我觉得这正好印证了我们之前说的那种彻底投降的故事。
And I think what this does is feeds into the whole capitulation story that we've said.
对吧？
Right?
当恐惧和痛苦达到顶点，所有人都放弃了，彻底认输，扔毛巾，然后底部就出现了。
When there's max fear, max pain, everyone gives up, they capitulate, they throw in the towel, and then the bottom happens.
还有什么比这种事情更能说明情况正在发生呢？
And what better sign of this stuff happening than more stuff like this.
对吧？
Right?
我们之前展示过，需要有一个爆发性事件。
We've shown this before where you need to have a blow up event.
我们确实看到了这种情况。
We saw that happen.
对吧？
Right?
就在上周，我们聊过BitMax和其他那些倒闭的平台。
Just last week, we talked about it with bit max and all those other places that went under.
然后你再看看剩下的那些，全都崩了。
And then you go and you look at the rest of them that have all blown up.
再看看加密货币交易量下降、活跃度下滑，还有Jim Cramer说清仓所有资产。
And then you look at, you know, crypto trading and volume falling and activity falling and then Jim Cramer saying sell everything.
这就像是市场在反转前，那种最极致的恐慌和投降状态。
And it's like, that is what the full max pain capitulation looks like before a turnaround happens.
所以不是说已经发生了，但确实是我正在密切关注的事情。
So not saying it's already happened, but, again, it's something I'm actively looking for here.
如果不是现在，那希望未来几个月内，我真的会密切关注这个信号。
If not right now, then hopefully in the next few months, would really be looking for that.
所以，可能还会再来一次探底。
So maybe we get one more sweep of the lows.
你知道，这也是有可能的。
You know, maybe that's possible.
但我要告诉你，我仍然在寻找这个信号。
But I'll tell you what, I'm still looking for it nonetheless.
这是个很好的总结点，我们这场直播有超过100位观众在线。
It's a great point to wrap up on as we have over a 100 live viewers at this show.
非常感谢大家周二来收看。
So we really appreciate everybody tuning in on a Tuesday.
如果你错过了开头，一定要等我们结束后回去看看前面的内容。
If you missed the beginning, definitely go back, once we we end here and watch the top.
你得确保听到那个钱包被黑客攻击的事件。
You wanna make sure you hear about the wallet hack that was going on.
另外，仅限本次直播，我们正在推广新版《加密货币安全终极指南》。
And again, for this show only, we're running a promo for the new ultimate guide to keeping your crypto safe.
再说一次，这次黑客攻击已经盗走了，我觉得超过1.2亿美元，一夜之间就没了。
Again, the hack drained over at this point, I think it's over 120,000,000, gone overnight.
而且你知道，随着我们觉得市场正在筑底，下一轮牛市也在酝酿中。
And you know, as we think the bottoming process is happening, the next bull run is lining up.
所以你得更新知识，才能保证你的加密货币安全。
So you got to update what you know to keep your crypto safe.
查看下面的链接。
Check the link below.
只要3美元。
It's a $3 promo.
我是说，这东西平时卖100美元，现在3美元促销，新版《加密货币安全终极指南》。
I mean, I think this thing goes traditionally for $100 So $3 promo, the new ultimate guide to keep your crypto safe.
快去看看吧。
Check it out.
简介里支持一下节目吧。
The description support the show.
我们很乐意免费做这些。
We love doing this for free.
你至少可以做到这一点。
The least you could do it.
你是老观众了。
You're a returning member.
给我们点个赞，帮节目涨涨人气。
Give us a thumbs up, help us grow the show.
新朋友的话，右下角点一下标志。
And if you're new bottom right, hit the logo.
记得订阅。
Do subscribe.
真的很感谢大家周二来收听。
We really appreciate everybody tuning in on Tuesday.
我们还有更多内容，看看这期播客能不能顺利发布。
We got more let's see if the podcast is going out.
我这周还有一期布莱斯的采访要发布，周五我们会再回来做一期总结。
I got another Bryce interview going out this week, and we'll be back again on Friday Friday for another rundown.
内容源源不断。
The content keeps coming.
加密货币这趟列车不会停。
The crypto train does not stop.
但今天就到这里了。
But that's all for today.
感谢大家的收听。
Thanks for tuning in.
暂时就这些了。
That's all for now.
各位再见。
Goodbye, everybody.
当别人听到噪音时，TRO价格解读市场信号，寻找投资机会。
When others hear noise, TRO price interprets market signals to find investment opportunities.
这就是T. Rowe Price主动型ETF的力量。
That's the power of active ETFs from T.
Rowe Price。
Rowe Price.
他们的投资组合经理从多个角度处理数据，分析趋势并进行深入研究，为你提供基于好奇心的主动管理专业知识。
Their portfolio managers approach data from multiple perspectives, analyzing trends and conducting deep research to give you their curiosity backed active management expertise.
了解更多关于他们的主动型ETF，请访问trowprice.com/exploreetfs。
Learn more about their active ETFs at trowprice.com/exploreetfs.
交易所交易基金（ETF）以价格而非净值买卖。
Exchange traded funds, ETFs, are bought and sold at prices, not NAV.
投资者通常需要承担买卖价差成本。
Investors generally incur the cost of the spread between the prices at which shares are bought and sold.
买卖股票可能产生经纪佣金，这会降低收益。
Buying and selling shares may result in brokerage commissions, which will reduce returns.
T.
T.
Rowe Price 投资服务公司。
Rowe Price Investment Services Inc.
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