加密货币综述：达沃斯2026：加密货币成为世界经济论坛焦点与技术分析

我觉得大家聚在一起是个很好的观点。

I think it's a great point of everybody getting together.

你知道，我们之前讨论过，无论是你、布莱恩，还是我们访谈过的其他人，都说过类似的话。

You know, I I we we kind of talked whether it was you or Brian or whoever we've had on the rundown of saying like, hey.

我们以前见过这种情形，比如解放日是市场首次需要消化政府带来的波动性。

We've we've seen this dance before the, you know, Liberation Day was the first time the market had to digest kind of the volatility of the administration.

而对于那些保持冷静、试图超越政治因素、只想做好投资者的人来说，他们比那些因政治情绪而暴跳如雷的人更能更好地参与这场游戏。格林兰岛这件事，显然是政府想讨论的话题。

And and this, I I think for people that have cooler heads and are trying to look past the politics of it and just trying to be investors, are trying to, you know, play the game a little bit better than the people who are just, you know, blowing gaskets due to politics is, you know, the Greenland thing is is a discussion that the administration clearly wants to have.

但正如你所见，关于军事行动占领格林兰岛的梗，这周在大家聚在一起之前就刷爆了。

But, you know, military action of of taking over Greenland here, as you can see, the memes were, were all time this week leading into them all getting together.

就像你说的，理智的人最终会占上风。

And like you said, cooler heads prevail.

我觉得我们有个CZ的片段，接下来可以放一下。

And I think we got we got a clip from CZ that we'll transition to.

所以CZ刚从牢里出来，到处跑动。

So CZ kind of, you know, out of got out of his part and out of jail running around.

你知道吗，这是我第一次在美國的商業頻道上看到他四处奔波，因为他之前在达沃斯。

You know, first time I've kinda seen him on the The US kind of business channels running around because he was in Davos.

我看到他好像上了CNBC。

I saw him say, I think he was on CNBC.

他说2026年将是比特币的超级周期。

It was like twenty twenty six is a Bitcoin super cycle.

那人就问：2026年？

And the guy was like, 2026?

他回答：是的，没错，2026年比特币超级周期。

He's like, yeah, yeah, 2026 Bitcoin super cycle.

会发生什么？

What's gonna happen?

CZ一如既往地开放，但我们这里有个引述，谈到了政府将资产通证化。

CZ as always permeable, but the we had the quote here talking about governments tokenizing their assets.

大概九十秒左右。

It's about ninety seconds.

我们平时不太关注CZ，所以让我们听听他在达沃斯论坛上说了什么。

We don't play CZ that much, so let's let's let's hear what he had to say on stage at Davos.

加密领域实际上已经有两个成熟的产业：交易所和稳定币。

Cryptospace, that's really two proven industries, they have exchanges and stablecoins.

这些都是大型企业。

Those are large businesses.

我对另外三个新兴领域感到非常兴奋。

I'm really excited about three new more.

我认为代币化是一个巨大的方向。

I think tokenization is a huge one.

我正在与大约十几个政府讨论将他们的一些资产代币化，因为这样政府可以首先实现财务收益，并用这些收益来发展相关产业、旅游景点、交易市场等。

I'm talking with probably a dozen governments about tokenizing some of their assets because this way the government can actually realize the financial gains first and use that to develop those industries, attractions, the trading markets, etcetera.

支付是我们尝试过但尚未真正攻克的领域，或者说，在加密货币领域我们还没真正开始。

Payments is something that we've tried, not really conquered in well, have not really started in crypto.

我们尝试过，但没人真的用加密货币支付。

We tried, but nobody really pays in crypto.

但我认为，我们现在正看到传统支付方式在后台由加密货币提供支持的融合。

But I think now we're seeing the convergence of traditional payment methods being behind the scenes being supported by crypto.

所以消费者刷卡时，加密货币会从他们的账户中扣除，商家则收到美元、欧元或其他他们所需的货币。

So the spenders swipe a card, crypto gets deducted from their account, the merchants gets US dollars or euros or whatever they get.

因此，当这些桥梁建立起来后，我认为支付领域将迎来巨大发展。

So now when we have those bridges, I think payments is gonna come pretty big.

第三个是你们所有人都提到的：人工智能。

The third one is, which you guys all mentioned, is AI.

人工智能代理的原生货币将是加密货币。

The native currency for AI agent is gonna be crypto.

它们不会使用银行卡。

They're not gonna use bank cards.

它们不会刷信用卡。

They're not gonna swipe credit cards.

区块链是最适合人工智能代理的原生技术接口。

They're gonna crypto blockchain is the most native technology interface for AI agents.

所以

So

这确实解释了为什么这一切显然都极其重要。

It it does make sense why all of this is obviously super important.

我认为我们可以同意，我们在这一点上是有偏见的。

I think we can agree that we're super biased in that aspect.

但确实可以理解，《清晰法案》以及所有这些事务需要很长时间，因为存在很多不同意见——我确实同意这种说法，即这一切都关乎未来，涉及人工智能、稳定币、加密支付，以及新金融体系的全新基础设施正在被构建。

But it does make sense that the Clarity Act and all this stuff is gonna take a lot of time and there's a lot of opinions because I I do agree with that kind of statement that all this kind of just transcends into the future of all these things, AI, stable coins, crypto payments, new these new rails of the new financial system are being built.

我认为我们在节目中已经做得不错了，再次强调，没有试图过于政治化，但这件事确实意义重大。

And I think we've kind of done a good job on the show of, again, not trying to be too political, but it is huge.

通过的这项立法将为下一代金融体系奠定基础。

This legislation that goes through is something that sets up the system for the next generation of finance.

这令人兴奋，但也有些令人担忧，因为你希望它——你知道的——一定要做对。

And it's exciting, but it's also a little scary because you want it, you know, you definitely want it to be done right.

正如我们所知，在华盛顿特区做到这一点是很困难的。

And as we know, it's it's hard to do that down in DC.

是的，让我印象深刻的是，他说他正在与大约十几个国家讨论代币化。

Yeah, and what stood out to me is he said, I'm talking to a dozen, about a dozen different countries about tokenization.

正如我们在接下来的几个片段中会看到的，代币化是这次讨论的一个重要话题。

And as we'll see with a couple of these other clips, tokenization was one of the huge talking points of this.

拉里·芬克一直是这一领域的大力支持者，他也到场谈论了这一点。

Larry Fink, who's been a huge fan of this, he was there talking about it.

J或者他也在场，支持这一观点。

J or he was there and kind of backing up the idea.

摩根大通，或者不是摩根大通。

JPMorgan who's opened up or not JPMorgan.

摩根大通的杰米·戴蒙出席了会议，他显然一直大力支持这一方向。

Jamie Dimon from JPMorgan was there, and he was obviously been very pro this.

你还有 CZ 在谈论它。

You have CZ talking about it.

你还有其他许多人也在谈论它。

You had all these other people.

而且，正如我们在未来的片段中会看到的，这确实是一个重要的议题，他说得对，世界正在向这个方向开放。

And well again, we'll see in the in the future clips, but it was a big talking point, and he's right, and the world's opening up to this.

谈到AI代理时，他提出了一个非常到位的观点：AI代理并不是人。

And when it comes to AI agents, he makes a really good point, where AI agents, they aren't people.

它们没有出生证明。

They don't have birth certificates.

它们没有社会保障号码。

They don't have social security numbers.

它们无法开设银行账户。

They cannot have a bank account.

因此，他们在这里提出的想法是：既然它们无法拥有银行账户、身份认证等，那就可以拥有一个加密货币钱包。

And so the what they do here is they say okay, well since they can't have a bank account and an identity and all these things, they can have a cryptocurrency wallet.

而我们看到的一个流行趋势是，你实际上可以创建这些AI代理——对于不了解AI代理的人来说，它是一种高度专注于完成你指定并训练它的特定任务的AI。

And that's one of the things that we've seen popular, is that you can actually create these AI agents, which for people who don't know what an AI agent is, it's an AI that is really hyper focused on doing something specific that you have instructed it and trained it towards.

因此，你可以操控它，如果你给它一个加密货币钱包，就相当于给了它可以进行交易的资金。

So you can make it operate it, and if you give it a crypto wallet, you're essentially giving it money that it can transact with.

所以，如果它需要去做某事、支付费用或完成某项任务，它可以使用你赋予它的加密货币钱包中的加密货币作为支付手段来换取所需的服务。

So if it needs to go do something and pay for something and get something done, it can exchange the cryptocurrency in the wallet that you've given it as a means of payment for whatever they need.

因此，他是对的，因为根据我们当前的制度、规则和基础设施，这些AI代理几乎只能依靠加密货币钱包运行，它们根本无法使用银行账户或法币。

And so he's right in the sense that a lot of these AI agents can really only function with crypto wallets, because under the current stuff that we have set up, under the current rules and regulations and infrastructure, they simply cannot operate with a bank account or with fiat.

因此，这些AI代理要想真正运作、实现货币交换和交易，唯一的方式就是通过加密货币和加密货币钱包。

And so the only way that these things can actually work and operate and have a means of of monetary exchange and transaction is with crypto and with the crypto wallet.

我们已经看到，这变得非常流行，甚至可以说相当成功。

And we've seen that become, I would say, really popular and arguably really successful at well as well.

我们曾与一些大型AI创始人讨论过这个问题，他们对此非常喜爱。

And we've talked to some of these big AI founders about this stuff, and they love it.

他们还分享了一些有趣的故事，关于这些AI代理被派去执行的任务——它们甚至能去Fiverr上雇佣人员，具备出色的问题解决能力。

And they've had some pretty funny stories as well about what they've had these things go and do, and these these things have been able to go and hire people off of Fiverr, they have really good problem solving.

比如，我们需要完成某件事。

And it's like, oh, well, we need something done.

然后它们就会去Fiverr或Upwork雇佣人手来完成，完成后把结果反馈回来，从而满足需求。

And then they go to Fiverr or Upwork, and then they hire someone to do it, and then it comes back, and they get what they need.

这太疯狂了。

And it's crazy.

确实太疯狂了。

It really is crazy.

因此，至少在目前，加密货币充当了使这一切成为可能的基石。

And so crypto kind of is acting at least for the moment as the backbone that enables that to even be possible in the first place.

是的。

Yeah.

这只是一个常见的说法。

It's just a common talking point.

你放这个片段。

You put this clip up.

这是一个简短的片段，但BNY Mellon的首席执行官基本上在说，人工智能、比特币、以太坊和加密货币。

This is a quick one, but it's BNY Mellon CEO basically saying, you know, AI, Bitcoin, Ethereum and crypto.

我们很兴奋。

We're excited.

我们对人工智能感到兴奋。

We're excited about AI.

我们对数字资产感到兴奋。

We're excited about digital assets.

我们对创新感到兴奋。

We're excited about innovation.

我们对我们的员工感到兴奋，而这一切都是为了服务我们的客户。

We're excited about our people and all of that is for serving our customers.

因此，你今天能在公司里感受到这种氛围，这是一件令人愉快的事。

And so you can feel that in the halls of the company today and that's a fun thing.

这只是一个主要的话题。

It's just, it's the main talking point.

从贝莱德到纽约梅隆银行，每个人都在谈论这个，这就是为什么你的地区性银行也将开始这么做。

Everybody from BlackRock down to BNY Mellon, and that's why your regional banks are gonna start doing this.

我想我把这个写在笔记里了吗？

I think I did I put this in the notes?

我的比特币即将上市。

My Bitcoin's Bitcoin goes public.

来了。

Here we go.

所以，来了。

So here we go.

我这里跳过这张表，但重点是，这和达沃斯形成很好的阴阳对比。

Let's I'm skipping over the sheet here, but this is this is the point of like it's it's a good yin and yang to Davos.

我们说的是，世界上最富有的人和最大的银行家们全都飞往瑞士。

So like we're talking about, okay, the the the richest people and the biggest, you know, bankers in the world go all flying to Switzerland.

他们在谈什么？

What are they talking about?

比特币、加密货币、人工智能。

Bitcoin, crypto, AI.

这正是涓滴效应。

And it it trickled this is the trickle down effect.

所以我要播放这段视频，这是当地新闻的一则报道。

So I'm gonna play this video and this is a local news bit.

这是来自伊利诺伊州罗克福德的一家财富管理公司，将基于比特币运营。

So it's a Rockford, Illinois wealth management firm that's gonna be Bitcoin based.

我觉得这真的很酷，虽然我们一会儿再回到达沃斯，但这一幕让我立刻想到了完美的阴阳平衡。

So I thought this was really cool, and it's we're gonna go back to Davos in a second, but I just this hit my mind is like a good yin and yang.

让我们听听，这种趋势已经渗透到了多深的层面。

So let's let's listen how far down the pathway this is starting to permeate.

企业入驻森林之城。

Businesses welcomed into the forest city.

两个，三个。

Two, three.

当地领导人齐聚一堂，庆祝橙色地平线财富公司的开业。

Local leaders gathered to celebrate the opening of Orange Horizon Wealth.

该公司起源于印第安纳州。

Firm originated in Indiana.

他们帮助人们规划财务。

They help people plan their finances.

该机构是当地首家将加密货币纳入服务的财富管理公司，也是首家加入大洛克福德商会的比特币基础企业。

The location is the first local wealth management company to add cryptocurrency to its practice along with the first bit bitcoin based business to join the Greater Rockford Chamber of Commerce.

公司认为，将比特币这样的新事物引入洛克福德社区非常棒。

Company feels that it's great to bring something new like Bitcoin to the Rockford community.

所以我们正把比特币从瑞士达沃斯带到伊利诺伊州的洛克福德。

So we're bringing we're bringing Bitcoin all the way from Davos, Switzerland to Rockford, Illinois.

我认为那就是未来。

That's I I think that's the future.

多年来，我们在这个节目中一直强调，我们正在努力构建一个围绕金融未来的节目和教育体系。

That's what we've been kind of saying on this program for years is we're, you know, trying to build a program and education system around the future of finance.

我认为没有什么比这更能说明问题了：就在刚才的十分钟里，你看到世界顶尖人物在世界经济论坛上谈论比特币、加密货币和人工智能，然后你发现，哦，顺便说一句，在伊利诺伊州的洛克福德，已经开始出现这种基于比特币的财富管理公司。

And I think nothing shows that better than kind of the last ten minutes of this show of taking the most powerful people in the world in the world economic forum talking about, you know, Bitcoin, crypto, AI, the same things and then be like, oh, and by the way, then you can go down to Rockford, Illinois, and it's starting to be this Bitcoin based, you know, wealth management firm.

这就是你将开始看到的、从下游逐步发生的缓慢转变。

That that's the slow transition that you're gonna start seeing of people downstream.

这些小玩家将会开始入场。

These smaller fish are gonna start buying into this.

我们走在了趋势前面。

We're ahead of the curve.

这不就是我们常说的话吗？

That's what we always like to say, right?

再宏观一点，还有什么呢？

Zoom out and what else?

我们处于早期阶段。

We're early.

所以有时候你只能让这些事情自然发展。

And so sometimes you just gotta let these things play out.

关于市场结构法案，我们已经播放过无数次片段了，一旦该法案签署生效，一切就将加速推进。

The market structure bill, we've played countless clips of once the market structure bill gets signed, it's off to the races.

银行将会参与进来。

The banks will get involved.

银行将会参与进来。

The banks will get involved.

所以我认为这就是整个故事，也是我们一直反复提及的基本面利好消息。

So I think that's that's kind of the story and the fundamental positive news that we've been stuck in repeating.

不一定是重复。

Not necessarily repeating.

这总是新内容，但价格一直陷在泥潭里，尽管基本面和新闻都如此看涨。

It's always new stuff, but the price has been stuck in the mud a little bit where the fundamentals and the news has been so bullish.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

你说得太对了，兄弟。

You're spot on, man.

我们从上到下、从小到大，到处都能看到这种现象。

It's we're seeing it everywhere from top to bottom, small and big.

你到处都能看到这一点。

You're seeing it everywhere.

我们最近看到另一个例子是BitGo。

And another place that we saw this recently was with BitGo.

BitGo刚刚上市，估值达到20亿美元。

BitGo just went public, and they're going public at a $2,000,000,000 valuation.

如果你不熟悉他们的话，他们是今年第一家上市的加密公司。

They're the first crypto company to go public this year if you're not familiar with them.

他们主要做的是，嗯，更偏向工业层面的，抱歉。

They work on, like, the kind of more industrial side or, like, in sorry.

不是工业层面。

Not industrial.

而是加密资产管理的机构层面。

More institutional side of crypto management.

所以他们提供不同的托管方案。

So they have different custody options.

他们提供自托管服务。

They have self custody.

他们提供托管服务。

They have custodial services.

他们也有混合模式。

They have hybrid models.

而且他们规模非常大。

And they're really big.

我的意思是，他们是加密领域的重要参与者，这正是他们的主要目的和功能。

I mean, they're a huge player in the crypto space, and that's their primary purpose and function.

但他们上市了。

But they went public.

我其实去查了一下，想确认一下。

And I was checking actually to try to see.

让我再确认一次，看看他们是否真的在交易。

Let me check one more time to see if they are actually trading.

而且，是的，他们现在实际上已经在实时交易了。

And, yeah, so they're now actually trading live.

他们以大约20亿美元的估值上市。

They went public around a $2,000,000,000 valuation.

他们最初每股定价约为22.5美元，现在价格略有下跌。

They launched at around $22.5 per share, and they're coming down a little bit here.

但这是一次规模巨大的上市。

But huge, huge, huge launch here.

因此，他们继续获得关注。

And so continue to get attention.

你正看到越来越多这类公司上市，而市场需求确实存在，这就是我们看到这一现象的原因。

You're getting more of these companies going public and the demand for it's there, which is why we're seeing it.

对。

Yeah.

而屏幕上的首席执行官迈克·贝尔希一直多次出现在我们的节目中，他确实参与过多次峰会，也上过我们的播客。

And Mike Belshie, the CEO here on your screen, has been on the program multiple times of he's definitely been involved in the summits, and he's been on the podcast.

所以我们稍后会再联系，试着请他回来，祝贺他并了解他现在公司上市后的愿景。

So we'll circle back to try to maybe get him back on and to congratulate him and hear the vision for, know, bit go now that they're public.

但再次强调，加密领域这里持续传来基本面看涨的消息。

But again, just continuous fundamentally bullish news going kind of you know, through the crypto realm here.

我们刚才漏掉了一件事。

I did I did we did skip over one thing.

我们回到达沃斯，谈谈贝莱德的首席执行官。

We'll go back to we'll close out Davos with the BlackRock CEO.

这不一定与瑞士有关，但他确实有一句引语，我们会播放出来，然后进行分析。

It's not necessarily Switzerland related, but he he did have this quote here and we're gonna play it and then we'll break it down.

但他确实有一句非常精彩的话，关于区块链的，迅速在推特上的加密社区引发了热议。

But he did he's he's he did have a nice little, like, one common blockchain really stuck out and took the took the Twitter, the crypto Twitter sphere by fire.

让我们听听拉里·芬克的发言，然后讨论一些内容。

So let's listen to Larry Fink and then some things to discuss.

我认为向代币化和小数化发展的趋势是必要的。

I think the movement towards tokenization, decimalization is is necessary.

讽刺的是，我们看到两个新兴国家在货币的数字化和代币化方面引领全球。

It's ironic that we see two emerging countries leading the world in decimal in in in the tokenization and digitization of their currency.

那就是巴西和印度。

That's Brazil and India.

我认为我们需要迅速推进这一进程。

I think we need to move very rapidly to doing that.

我们会降低费用。

We would be reducing fees.

如果我们把所有投资都放在一个代币化平台上，可以在代币化货币市场基金、股票和债券之间自由转换，我们就能通过降低更多费用实现更大的民主化，而这一切都基于一条共同的区块链。

We would do more democratization by reducing more fees if we had all investments on a tokenized platform that you can move from a tokenized money market fund to equities and bonds and back and forth, we have one common blockchain.

我们还能减少腐败。

We will you know, we we could reduce corruption.

因此，我会说，是的，我们可能更依赖于一条区块链，这一点我们完全可以讨论。

So I would argue that, yes, we have more dependencies on maybe one blockchain, which we could all talk about.

但话虽如此，这些活动的处理方式可能比以往任何时候都更安全。

But that being said, activities are probably processed and more secure than ever.

所以，同样的概念，你知道，所有东西都上链了，代币化，你基本上从我们播放的大部分片段中都听过这个概念。

So same same concept where, you know, everything's coming on chain, tokenization, the same concept you've heard, you know, basically from every clip we've played for the most part.

然后我觉得他提到‘一条区块链’这一点挺有意思的。

And then I just thought it was interesting that he said, you know, the one blockchain thing.

那到底是哪一条区块链呢？

Like, what what blockchain is that gonna be?

我猜是以太坊。

I would imagine it's Ethereum.

我的意思不是我有偏见才这么说。

I mean and again, that's not me talking from bias.

我只是说，如果你看看他们把大部分资源投向了哪里，你会发现Biddle基金就在以太坊上。

I'm just saying if you look at where if you look at where they put most of their resources, you have the Biddle fund on Ethereum.

他们把主要精力都放在了以太坊上。

You have them making the primary focus of their efforts on Ethereum.

对吧？

Right?

所以我认为他指的是那个。

So I I would imagine that he's talking about that.

因为当你看比特币时，他们确实喜欢比特币。

Because when you look at Bitcoin, again, they like Bitcoin.

他对比特币评价很好。

He thinks good of Bitcoin.

他们真的很喜欢它。

They they really like it.

他们在加密货币领域最成功的ETF是比特币。

They have the most their most successful ETF over there on the crypto side is Bitcoin.

但当你从构建基础设施的角度看比特币时，这其实并不是它今天最主要的应用。

But when you look at Bitcoin in terms of building infrastructure, that's really not what it's used for the most part today.

所以当他提到‘一个共同的区块链’时，他的意思是，比特币当然会存在，但说到基础设施建设，这其实被排除在外了，因为那根本不是比特币的用途。

So when he's saying like one common blockchain, think that's saying, hey, obviously Bitcoin's gonna be there, but when it comes to infrastructure build out, that's kind of excluded because that's really not what it does.

那么你可能会说，好吧，那它是比特币吗？

And so then you could argue, okay, well is it Bitcoin?

是以太坊吗？

Is it Ethereum?

有些人可能想把XRP、SUI或其他项目也加进去。

Some people would maybe want to try to throw XRP or SUI or other things in there.

但当你观察他们大部分的资源、努力以及链上总投资时，主要还是集中在以太坊上。

But when you look at the bulk of their resources and efforts and their total capital that they have on chain, it primarily comes down to Ethereum.

所以我认为这就是他的意思，更准确地说，是他所暗示的。

So I think that's where he's, and that's more so, like, what he's insinuating.

这就是我会从这句话中得出的结论。

That's what I would take away from that.

而且，再说一次，我也非常看好Solana。

And, again, I'm a huge Solana fan too.

我也是非常看好以太坊。

I'm a huge Ethereum fan.

所以，我可能会持不同意见，说：嘿。

So I would maybe disagree and say, hey.

也许这并不一定是一个赢家通吃的局面。

Maybe it doesn't have to be a one winner takes it all kind of scenario.

我认为我们永远都会有竞争对手。

I think that we're always going to have competitors.

资本主义的自然状态就是，只要有供需存在，就会有竞争的产品和平台，试图以不同的方式做得更好。

That's the natural state of capitalism is that so long as there is supply and demand, you're going to have competing products and platforms that are going to try to do things differently and better.

最终，人们有能力做出选择，说好吧，我因为这样那样的原因，更倾向于选择这里或那里。

And you're gonna have ultimately people have the ability to choose and say okay well I want to go here or there for x y and z reasons that best suit them.

这就是我的看法，但我不认为他错了，因为我觉得以太坊将会取得巨大的成功。

And that's the way that I view it but I don't think he's wrong in the sense that hey I think we're gonna see massive success from Ethereum.

你显然看到贝莱德是全球最大的资产管理公司。

You clearly are seeing BlackRock as the largest asset manager on the planet.

我的意思是，我不确定现在具体是多少。

I mean, I don't know what it is now.

我知道，它现在的资产管理规模已经超过10万亿美元，可能超过12万亿美元了。

Know, it was over 10, probably over $12,000,000,000,000 in assets under management now.

他们之所以领先，是因为他们是最大的。

They lead the way because they are the largest.

所以如果他们说，嘿，这件事即将发生，他们对此感到兴奋，等等，由于他们是全球最大的资产管理公司，他们在一定程度上设定了标准。

So if they're saying, hey this is gonna happen, and they're excited about it, and this and that, they set the standard to a degree because they are the largest asset manager on the planet.

他们的资产管理规模超过14万亿美元。

Mean they have more assets under 14,000,000,000,000.

到年底时达到14万亿美元。

14,000,000,000,000 at the end of

2020年。

For 2020

我的意思是，真的。

mean, real.

天啊，我们谈论的是一家美国公司拥有的资金，比大多数国家的全部资产还要多。

Dude, we're talking about more money in the single American company than most countries have in their entirety.

我的意思是，这太荒谬了。

I mean, it's ridiculous.

我的意思是，我不太清楚是不是14万亿。

Mean, again, don't know about 14,000,000,000,000.

不是。

No.

这是个很好的观点。

It's a great it's a great point.

我查一下这个。

I'll pull this up.

这正是我之前想到的。

That's exactly where I had.

我查了各国的GDP数据。

I I looked up country GDPs.

这只是快速搜了一下，肯定不是精确到个位数。

This is a quick Google, so I'm sure this isn't to the t.

但我们还是把这个图表调出来看看。

But we pull this chart up.

好的。

Alright.

美国是30万亿美元，中国是19万亿美元，然后是德国、日本、五、四、英国、三。

30,000,000,000,000 for The US, 19,000,000,000,000 for China, and then, you know, Germany, Japan, five, four, United Kingdom, three.

贝莱德，再说一遍，这并不意味着它们拥有这些资产。

Blackrock and again, that doesn't mean they own it.

这并不意味着贝莱德拥有所有东西，但它们在管理这些资产。

That doesn't mean that Blackrock owns everything, but they're managing it.

对吧？

Right?

它们只是托管方。

They're the custody.

这赋予了它们巨大的权力，所以你可以把它们排在德国上面，这太疯狂了，简直太疯狂了。

It gives you a lot of power, and so you could slide them in, you know, right above Germany, which is crazy, which is crazy.

但我认为这是个很好的观点，也要感谢聊天区的朋友们，因为这正是我们正在做的——分享我们的观点和想法，这都不是个人财务建议，不过诺亚·布鲁说：‘没戏。’

But I I think it's a great it's a great point and and just shout out to the chat because that's what this is is like, again, it's we're giving our opinions and thoughts and none of it's personal financial advice, but Noah Blue says no shot.

将会是XRP。

It's gonna be XRP.

感谢Noah Blue在聊天区活跃互动。

So shout out to Noah Blue getting active in the chat.

感谢今天所有到场的朋友。

Thank you to everybody who showed up today.

如果你们能点个赞就好了。

If you guys can just give it a like.

如果你还没订阅，就在屏幕右下角点击我们的标志，订阅并给视频点赞，这真的能帮助我们成长，继续制作优质免费内容。

And then if you haven't, if you're new here on the bottom right of the screen, if you could click our logo and subscribe and give the video like it really helps us grow and keep doing the awesome free content.

但是的，黑石确实是个巨头。

But yeah, I mean BlackRock is a powerhouse.

我有点同意你的看法。

I kind of agree with you.

我觉得他当时在说以太坊，但也不一定。

I think he was sitting at Ethereum, but maybe not.

也许诺亚是对的，是XRP，或者像你说的，我认为整个行业从诞生之初就带着资本主义的基因，这种机制会持续让创新保持活力。

Maybe Noah's right and it's XRP or like you said, I I think the capitalism of the whole way that this industry came to be from the start is always gonna keep the innovation fresh.

我认为诺亚的意思是，根本不可能是XRP。

Well, I think what Noah was saying is that there's I think Noah was saying there's no way it's XRP.

不是说‘一点机会都没有’，而是明确就是XRP。

Instead of like no shot period, it is XRP.

哦，明白了。

Oh, okay.

好的。

Alright.

诺亚，你在评论里澄清一下你的看法吧。

Well, Noah, clarify in the comments what you think.

澄清一下。

Clarify.

你是说会是XRP，还是不会是XRP？

Are you saying it is or won't be XRP?

是还是不是

Is it is or it

因为他们在结尾处会有一点延迟，大概几秒钟。

is at the end because he's they're gonna be on a little bit of a delay, like a couple seconds.

好的。

Okay.

我们继续吧。

We'll we'll move on

我们会再回来看聊天内容，然后我们再做是的。

and we'll come back to the chat and then we'll do yeah.

如果你最后还在，我们会再和布伦丹一起调出图表，分析一些代币。

If you're still here at the end, we'll bring up the charts again with Brendan and do some tickers.

所以我们大约五分钟后会谈到这个。

So we'll get to that in about five minutes.

昨晚我看到的最有趣的事情是，Coinbase宣布成立了新的量子计算顾问委员会，发布关于量子计算现状的论文，向用户提供建议，并在出现重大量子突破时实时响应。

The most interesting thing I saw last night, I threw it on the sheet, was Coinbase announcing a new quantum computer advisory board publishing position papers on the state of quantum computing, issuing guidance to users, respond in real time if there's major quantum breakthroughs.

显然，这将是关于比特币密码学持续讨论的话题。

Obviously, this was and will be a continued talking point to the cryptography of Bitcoin.

它安全吗？

Is it safe?

它会被破解吗？

Can it be broken?

然后我们的所有钱包都会被量子计算机黑掉。

And then all our wallets get hacked by the quantum computer.

对此的快速反驳是：如果比特币被破解了，那么整个金融系统都会崩溃，每个人的账户都会被黑，所有银行都会受到影响。

And then the counter the quick counter argument to that is, well, if Bitcoin gets broken, then the whole financial system's gonna be broken and everybody's accounts are gonna get hacked and all the banks gonna act.

从一万英尺的高空来看，我个人相信这是真的。

Which which again, from 10,000 feet, I personally believe is true.

但我认为做这样的事、宣布这样的消息很重要，因为如果你想想贝莱德管理着14万亿美元的资产，它怎么可能不组建一个量子计算顾问委员会，开展研究，并开始实施防护措施呢？

But I I think it's it's it's important to do stuff like this and announce stuff like this because if you think BlackRock at $14,000,000,000,000 under management isn't gonna build some quantum computer board and do the research and start to implement ideas for protection.

所有这些都将朝这个方向发展。

That's where all this is going.

因此，作为社区，比特币也不能停滞不前。

And so Bitcoin as as a community, you you can't stay stagnant either.

我认为投入资源、进行研究，并围绕它展开讨论和交流是好事。

I think it's good to put resources and do the research and and have, you know, discourse and discussion around it.

但你觉得呢，布伦丹？你也有同样的看法吗？

But is this is this do you feel the same, Brendan?

或者你对这里的董事会有什么想法吗？

Or you have any thoughts of of the board here?

是的。

Yeah.

核心想法是，我们可能比预期更接近量子计算的时代。

That is the big thought is that, like, hey.

人工智能正在加速这一进程，很可能让这一天比我们预想的来得更早。

We're probably closer to quantum computing than we anticipated, and AI is accelerating that timeline and probably gonna make it come sooner rather than later.

我和布莱斯以及团队私下讨论过的一些观点是，区别在于，具体的一些公司可以指出：这是一个威胁。

And the difference here and some threads that me and Bryce and the team have talked about behind the scenes is that the difference is is that companies, you know, specific companies can say, hey, this is the threat.

让我们投入资源进去。

Let's put resources in it.

然后由顶尖人物决定，他们就说：就这样了。

And you just have the top dogs decide, and they just say, that's it.

去开始吧。

Go start it.

对于比特币来说，这要难一点，因为它的本质是去中心化的，你需要绝大多数人达成共识，然后共同推动这一变更，投票并实施它。

With Bitcoin, it's a little bit harder, right, because it's decentralized in nature and you need to have the whole, you know, the majority of people agree and then work towards this change and then like vote on it and implement it.

你需要一种更加一致且协作的努力——天啊，我结巴了。

And you need kind of a much more unanimous and collaborate geez, I'm stuttering.

要在比特币上实现这一点，需要双方之间高度一致且协作的努力。

Unanimous and collaborative effort between both of those happening in order to make it happen on Bitcoin.

因此，从本质上讲，让比特币具备抗量子计算的能力是完全可能的。

And so by nature, the process of making Bitcoin quantum computing resistant is very possible.

但由于比特币的运作方式，这个过程会相对更漫长一些。

But it's a little bit more drawn out in nature because of how Bitcoin function and operates.

所以我认为这就是人们所担心的：中心化实体更容易整合资源、做出决定并采取行动，而比特币要实现这一点则要困难得多。

So I think that is the fear that people have, is that it's a little bit more easy for a centralized entity to put resources together and decide and act, and it's a little bit more difficult for Bitcoin to actually do this.

而且这件事需要提前很久就开始准备。

And it's something that needs to be started pretty far in advance.

所以我喜欢这个观点。

So I like this.

我认为他们正在做正确的事情，而且这是完全可能的。

I think that they're doing the right thing and doing this, and it's very possible.

听好了。

It's listen.

如果你认为其他所有公司都能确保自己具备抗量子计算的能力，那么就没有理由认为比特币或其他区块链做不到抗量子计算。

If you think that again, if you think that all these other companies and everything can make sure that they're quantum resistant, then there's no reason to think that Bitcoin can't become quantum resistant or different blockchains can.

事实上，目前已经有一些区块链声称自己已经具备抗量子计算能力，或非常接近这一目标。

In fact, there's already blockchains out there who argue that they are quantum resistant or very close to it.

因此，这是完全有可能实现的。

And so it's something that is very very possible.

这只是比特币可能需要更多提前准备的问题。

It's just a matter of Bitcoin probably needs a little bit more of a head start.

它需要更多时间才能达到那个阶段。

It needs a little bit more time to get to that point.

因此，人们在这里试图强调这一点，我认为Coinbase是对的。

And so that's what people are trying to highlight here, and I think Coinbase is right.

再次强调，尽快启动这件事。

Again, get this started as soon as possible.

尽快做好准备。

Make it ready as soon as possible.

是的，要完成这件事，还需要社区进行大量的讨论和交流。

Yeah, and it's gonna take a lot more discussion and discourse from the community as well to get it done.

但人们之所以想完成这件事，是有原因的。

But there's a reason why people will wanna get it done.

我们在这里快速总结几个要点：有人说是没人使用比特币，这是错误的。

And that's a couple of our quick hitters to end the show here is somebody says nobody uses Bitcoin false.

2025年比特币的总交易量达到25万亿美元，Visa为16万亿美元，Mastercard为9.7万亿美元。

Bitcoin has total transaction volume in 2025 came out 25,000,000,000,000 for Bitcoin, 16,000,000,000,000 for Visa, 9,700,000,000,000.0 for Mastercard.

所以世界正在使用比特币，随着其普及度持续增长，希望会有更多应用场景，就像我们所说的，加密货币似乎正以这种方式走向大众。

So the world is using Bitcoin and as it continues to grow popularity, hopefully there's more use cases and kind of like we said, it feels like the way that crypto is gonna come to the masses.

多年来我们一直强调，未来会出现一些金融产品，你甚至可能不知道自己正在使用加密货币的底层网络。

We've always preached this for years is like there's gonna be financial products that are gonna be used and you're not even might not even know that you're using the crypto rails.

但我认为这个数据很酷。

But I thought this was a cool stat.

是的。

Yeah.

确实如此。

It is.

我的意思是，比特币的交易量几乎超过了Mastercard和Visa的总和。

I mean, you have almost more Bitcoin transactions than Mastercard and Visa combined.

几乎。

Almost.

还没完全达到，但已经很多了。

Not quite there, but it's a lot.

而且我相信，如果你去查看以太坊和Solana的数据，一定会非常惊人，我很想看看这些数字是多少，尤其是稳定币的情况。

And if you I'm sure if you go and you were to look at Ethereum and Solana, it'd be super impressive, and I'd be interested to see what those numbers look like and kinda line up too, especially stablecoins.

我也非常想看看USDC和USDT的总稳定币交易量与这个数据相比如何。

I'd also be pretty interested in seeing total stablecoin transactions for USDC and USDT compared to this.

也许我们以后会去整理这些数据，在下一期节目中再讨论。

Maybe we'll pull those numbers, and we'll talk about it in next week's episode.

但是

But

太棒了。

Love that.

我们还有一个有趣的点。

And then we got we got one more fun one.

但在那之前，我们要和Brendan一起做一些图表来结束本期节目，做一些更技术性的分析。

But before we do that, we're gonna gonna do some charts with Brendan to end the show, some more technical analysis.

如果你在聊天室里并全程观看了节目，请留下你希望Brendan在技术分析图表上快速查看的代币符号。

If you were in the chat and you stayed for the whole show, drop the tickers that you want Brendan to give a quick look at on the TA charts.

如果你在聊天评论区留下这些代币，我们会一一查看。

We'll get to those if you drop them in the comments on the chat.

我会把它们念给Brendan听。

I'll read them off to Brendan.

最后一个，Brendan。

Final one, Brendan.

这很有趣。

This was fun.

我们前几天刚聊过这个。

We talked about this the other day.

I'll stake stake and shake 继续他们的比特币计划，并为公司储备购买了更多比特币。

I'll stake stake and shake continues their Bitcoin program, and they were buying buying some more Bitcoin for their reserve for the company.

节目结束后，我又看到一些新消息。

And then after the show, I saw some more news.

他们宣布了比特币奖励，每笔21美分。

Was they announced a Bitcoin bonus, 21¢.

我认为是每小时21美分。

I believe it was 21¢ per per hour.

所以每工作一小时，你就能获得21美分的比特币。

So every hour worked, you get 21¢ in Bitcoin.

我觉得这真是一个不错的举动。

I I think that's a quite a nice gesture.

而且，你知道，如果人们不想要，那就太遗憾了。

And, you know, I guess if people don't want it, that's a that's a shame.

但这能让你对比特币有一些金融知识和教育，同时也在回馈员工。

But it it gives you a little bit of like financial literacy and education on on Bitcoin and it's, you know, giving back to your employees.

你没法对这个生气。

You can't get mad about that.

Steak and Shake 真的为比特币社区做了很多，还想出了一些有趣的方式让员工参与进来。

So Steak and Shake, really going above and beyond for the Bitcoin community here, and and coming up with fun ideas to get their employees involved as well.

是的。

Yeah.

我挺喜欢的，老兄。

I'm a fan of it, man.

我喜欢。

I like it.

如果我正在上班，有人给我比特币奖金，我肯定会接受。

I I know if I was working and someone offered me bonuses in Bitcoin, I'd take it.

以前还没接触加密货币入门的时候，我自己做事情，不同的个人、公司和品牌会付钱给我，让我做各种服务、广告和其他事情。

Back in the day before I was even with crypto one zero one and I was doing my own thing, different people and companies and and and brands would pay me for a bunch of different services and ads and other things.

很多时候，我会说：‘你能用比特币付我吗？’

And a lot of the time, I'd say, Hey, can you pay me in Bitcoin?

你能用加密货币付我吗？

Can you pay me in crypto?

我很乐意接受。

And I was happy to take it.

所以我完全支持这个。

So I'm all for this.

我完全支持，Tivo。

I'm all for it, Tivo.

我喜欢这个。

I love it.

是的。

Yeah.

如果我

If I if I was

如果我是Steak and Chick的员工，我会非常兴奋。

a Steak and Chick employee, I'd be stoked.

但我们即将进行过渡。

But we're going to transition.

我会停止共享了，Brendan，你来展示图表吧。

I'll stop sharing here, Brendan, and you can pull up the charts.

再打一个电话。

One more call.

停止共享。

Stop sharing.

我们开始吧。

Here we go.

再打一个电话。

One more call.

我们将进行一些技术分析。

We're gonna do some technical analysis.

布伦丹现在正在调出图表。

Brendan's pulling up the charts now.

我们正在处理你们的请求。

We're getting your requests.

再次提醒，如果你对技术分析感兴趣并想更深入参与，下方描述中有一个布伦丹的六周课程链接。

Again, if technical analysis is something that you wanna get more involved with, there is a link below in the description for Brendan's six week course.

你每周可以和他进行两次这样的对话，每次一小时。

You literally get to do this twice a week with him for an hour.

你可以提出你的建议，同时还能获得这六周的课程。

You throw in your suggestions, plus you get the six week course.

你可以向布兰登提问。

You get to ask Brendan questions.

你可以从头到尾学习他作为我们技术分析专家的全部专业知识。

You get to learn from top to bottom his expertise as our technical analysis guru.

现在窗口是开放的。

And the window is open.

我们总是会推广他的课程，但窗口并不总是开放的。

We always do promote try to promote that he has the course, but the window is not always open.

所以我们现在正处于窗口开放的时期。

So we are in the time where the window is open.

如果你想要更多技术分析，赶紧查看下方链接，我们现在就开始。

So check the link below if you want more technical analysis, which we're going to do right now.

我们先从Chainlink开始。

Let's start off with Chainlink.

Link是第一个，而且显然，随着纽约证券交易所使用Link的新闻，他们备受关注。

Link was the first one and they're interested obviously, with all the news of the New York Stock Exchange using Link.

当然，这又是其中一件事。

Definitely, again, one of those things.

最近围绕它有很多看涨的基本面消息，而价格走势可能正在寻找底部。

A lot of bullish fundamental news around it where the price action, maybe it's looking to find a bottom there.

但最近Chainlink出现了非常非常看涨的消息。

But super super bullish news recently for Chainlink.

是的。

Yeah.

一些重大消息。

Some big news.

说到Chainlink，他们是加密领域主导的预言机提供商。

When it comes to Chainlink, I mean, they are the dominant Oracle provider in the crypto space.

它们占据了绝大部分市场份额。

They hold the vast majority of market share.

从预言机的角度来看，它们极其主导，并且不断达成一些大单。

They're extremely dominant from an Oracle perspective, and they constantly land some big deals.

它们拥有良好的声誉，你很少看到它们遭遇负面催化剂。

They have a good reputation that you don't see a lot of negative catalysts happen to them.

所以我认为这些都是有利的，我因为这些原因看好Chainlink。

So I think all that's good, and I like Chainlink for those reasons.

从图表上看，你可以清楚地看到，自11月以来，12美元左右的区域一直是一个相当稳定的支撑位。

From a chart perspective you can clearly see that this area down here around $12 has been a pretty consistent support since November.

你知道，我们已经在这里反弹过一次、两次、三次、四次了。

You know we bounced off this once, twice, three times, four times.

你知道我们持续在这个区域找到大量支撑，因此我想注意一下，但当你放大来看时，你会发现这是一条相当长的趋势线。

You know we continue to find a lot of support down and around this area, and so I want to take note of But as you zoom out here you can see hey this has been a pretty long trend line.

我们回溯到了2023年。

We're going all the way back to 2023.

我们已经触底回升，形成了更高的低点，继续上涨并持续形成更高的低点，而且一直在这个趋势线上反弹。

We've kind of bottomed out, rose up, formed the higher low, rose up, formed higher lows consistently, and we continue to bounce off of this trend line.

在过去三四年里，这种情况已经发生了大约六次。

You know like half a dozen times over the last three or four years now.

因此，这是一个相当稳定的支撑区域。

And so it's been a pretty consistent support zone.

我想强调的关于Chainlink的首要一点是，当我们放大来看时，你会发现一个巨大的旗形正在形成，长期以来都呈现出更高的低点和更低的高点。

The number one thing I want to highlight about Chainlink is that as we actually zoom out here, what you have is a huge pennant forming where you've seen higher lows and lower highs for a long time.

如果你把这里清理一下，你会发现阻力位转为支撑位，而支撑位则在这里上升，阻力位也在上升，这一点很明显。

You see resistance falling into support and support rising down here if you kind of even clear this away, rising in the resistance, and you can see that.

这意味着Chainlink的价格区间正在变得越来越紧，你可以看到它现在正开始急剧收窄。

And so what this means is that the range on Chainlink has been getting tighter and tighter and tighter and tighter, and you can see it's starting to really squeeze in here.

这回到了我们之前讨论的最初观点：整个加密市场的大市值资产正在被挤压。

And it goes back into the original thought that we were talking about earlier of, hey, large cap in the crypto market as a whole, it's squeezing.

你正看到这些盘整区间变得越来越紧。

You're seeing these consolidation ranges tighten.

你正看到价格对阻力位和支撑位的明显冲击，而加密货币目前正处在这些关键水平上。

You're seeing the clear push against resistance and support, and crypto is sitting at these key levels.

我们在这整个市场都能看到这种情况，Chainlink也不例外。在我们正在查看的周线图上，可以非常清楚地看到Chainlink正处于12美元的支撑位。

And we're seeing this across the board, and Chainlink's no exception to On the weekly chart, which is what we're looking at here, you can see it very clearly Chainlink's at this $12 support.

它正处于这条多年趋势线上。

It's at this multi year trend line.

它也位于200周移动平均线上，你看到大量行情围绕这个价格区间展开。

It's at the two hundred week moving average, and you're seeing just a lot of stuff happen around this price action.

因此，我会观察这个位置，并认为这是一个相当重要的区域。

So I would be looking at this and saying hey this is a pretty important zone.

从多年的时间框架来看，历史上Chainlink正是在这里反弹的。

From a multi year perspective this has historically been the area where Chainlink bounces off of.

看看2023年，它就是在这条趋势线上反弹的。

You look at 2023 and it bounced off this trend line.

看看2024年、2025年，现在是2026年，它持续在这片区域找到买方支撑。

You look at twenty twenty four, twenty twenty five, now 2026, and it continues to find support in buyers around this area.

所以我会看着这个，心想：好吧，考虑到这一点，我们知道这是一个历史性的水平。

So I'd be looking at this saying okay With that in mind, we know it's a historic level.

如果我们真的跌破这里，你知道，也许我们可以关注一下，如果价格试图回升至10美元附近，因为那可能是下一个支撑位。

If we do break down below here, you know, maybe we keep an eye on it if it tries to head back towards $10 because that would maybe be the next level.

但如果它能在这里守住，你知道，下一个阻力位可能在200日均线附近，大约17美元。

But if it does hold on here and it is able to hold on, you know, the next stop for resistance is, hey, maybe around the two hundred day moving average around $17.

但若价格向上突破，接近这个大旗形形态的顶部，可能会达到21美元左右，甚至更高一些。

But towards the top of this big old pennant is probably putting it closer to $21 a little bit higher if it kind of goes on to the upside.

所以，你看，Chainlink这里发生了不少事情。

So, you know, lots happening on Chainlink.

我认为从长期来看，很难对它持看跌态度。

I think they're pretty hard to be bearish about in the long term.

如果你打算在这里建仓，就要明白，有时候在低位积累可能需要几个月，甚至一年才能真正启动上涨。

If you are looking to get accumulation down here, just understand, like, hey, sometimes when you're accumulating down here, it might take a couple of months, you know, maybe a year to really rally.

你知道，我们这里可能已经看到了，好吧。

You know, here we could have seen, hey.

人们在五月左右在这里买入，但直到次年三月才重新回到峰值。

People were buying down here around May, and it wasn't until the next the following March where it was really back up to the peak.

然后你可以在八月左右买入，几个月后，它在次年一月达到了峰值。

And then you could have bought around August, and then maybe, you know, months later, it was up at its peaks in January of the following year.

你也可以在四月买入，然后到了次年八月就上涨了。

And you could have bought in April, and then it was up the following August.

所以，我们并不是说接下来一两天就会迅速反转，但请记住，从历史来看，这里一直是不错的积累区域。

So, again, we're not saying of, like, this is a quick turnaround for the next day or two, but just keep in mind, you know, it's it's historically been a half decent area of accumulation.

当然，这不是财务建议，但当我们回顾历史表现时，这里更适合做长期布局。

Obviously, never financial advice, but this is more of a longer term play down here when we look at what history has shown us.

我们还关注什么，Tivo？

What else we got, Tivo?

我以为SUI已经见顶了。

Thought we had a peak SUI.

是的。

That's yeah.

我们可以先讲Sui，然后是Pengu，之后就结束，除非有新人有其他建议。

We can do we'll do Sui and then Pengu, and then we'll wrap it up unless anybody new has any suggestions.

我们还有Ron。

We got Ron.

我们还有Noah。

We got Noah.

有新人吗？

Anybody new?

之后我们再讲一个，但先讲Sui，然后是Pengu。

We'll do one more after that, but let's do Sui and then Pengu.

好的，是的，我们来看看这两个。

Alright, yeah, let's take a look at both of these.

SUI是我一直关注的一个项目。

SUI is one that I have been following.

事实上，我这里有一个自定义的SUI图表。

In fact, I have a custom SUI chart right here.

SUI，你看到这里出现了一个明显的支撑区域被突破，然后出现了这次下跌，对吧？

SUI, you saw a pretty big area of support break here, and then you saw this breakdown happen, right?

你之前有一条趋势线，价格一直在上面反弹、反弹、再反弹，然后突然突破，之后下跌就相当猛烈地跟进。

You had this trend line, it was bouncing and bouncing and bouncing, and then it broke, and then the breakdown kind of just followed pretty aggressively afterwards.

类似的情况是，你有一个大约1.40到1.50美元的局部支撑区域，这一直是主要的支撑位。

Similar story where it's like, hey, you have this local support area around a dollar and 40 to a dollar and 50¢, and that has been the primary support.

我认为在SUI上，你真正需要守住的就是这个位置，如果你能守住，那么价格重新涨回1.90美元甚至2美元的可能性是相当大的，而那将是一个重要的阻力位。

I think that's really what you want to hold on to on SUI, is if you can hold on to it I think there's a decent chance where you go back up to maybe a dollar and 90¢, maybe even $2, And that's gonna be a big resistance.

如果你在这里跌破了，那我得特别小心。

If you break here, you know, I want to be pretty careful.

我觉得如果在这里跌破，情况就相当糟糕了。

I think if you break here, it's in a gnarly spot.

价格有可能再次回落至至少1美元，甚至更低。

There's a chance that this goes back down towards at least $1 maybe lower.

所以，如果这个结构向下突破，可能会出现30%左右的跌幅，这可不是小事。

So that could be a 50% drop is something that's, or not 50, maybe 30% drop is something that's like on the table if this structure breaks to the downside.

所以我真的不希望看到我们跌破1美元30美分到1美元40美分。

So I really don't want to see us break much below a dollar and 30¢, a dollar and 40¢.

这是关键支撑位。

That's the big support.

如果我们能守住这个位置，我认为很容易会回弹到1美元90美分到2美元。

If we are able to hold this, I think you could easily rotate back towards a dollar and 90¢ to $2.

如果你突破了前高，那么下一个合理的目标区域是上涨至2.60美元，这从你目前的价格来看是一次相当强劲的上涨。

If you break this previous high, then the next logical area for this to go to is up towards $2.60, which is a pretty substantial run from where you're currently priced at.

这大约是75%的涨幅。

It's about a 75% rally.

所以我要说的是，SUI最近几个月相比整个市场表现出了相对疲软，因此我想对它更谨慎一些。

So you know what I will say with SUI is it has seen some relative weakness compared to the rest of the market in recent months, and so I want to be a little bit more careful with it.

但如果它能开始反转，守住支撑位并重新站上这些阻力位，可能会吸引大量买盘。

But if it can start turning around and holding the support and getting back above some of those resistances, it could see some aggressive bids.

但我还是想对这个币种更谨慎一点，因为它在过去六个月左右一直表现不佳。

But I would just want to be a little bit more hesitant with this one because it has been underperforming over the last six or so months.

对于Pengu，情况也类似。

And with Pengu, similar story.

你知道，这家伙在过去七个月左右一直表现不佳。

You know this thing's been underperforming for probably the past seven months.

如果你从七月左右开始看，过去大约180天里。

If you're looking at it since July or so, in the last hundred and eighty so days.

跌幅相当惨烈，从高点回落了超过80%，我记得高点时大约是80%。

Pretty pretty gnarly retracement, know, over 80% to the downside off the highs, I believe it was about about 80% on the head.

现在它又回到了低点，你看到它正在回升。

And it's it's back at the lows, and so you're seeing this come.

同样地，在这个区域，我们之前已经看到它多次从这个水平反弹，你真的不希望它跌破这些低点。

Again similarly, at an area where we've seen it kind of bounce off this level a couple of times, you really don't want to see it kind of break beneath these lows.

你可以看到它正在形成一个不错的圆弧底，结构也开始显现。

You can see it's trying to put in a nice rounding bottom here, and you can see the structure start to form.

你需要守住这个位置。

You wanna hold this.

从这里开始，你希望看到更高的低点。

You wanna hold higher lows from here.

你希望它开始反转。

You want it to start turning around.

再次强调，如果跌破这个结构，就不是一个值得观察的好时机。

Again, any kind of break lower beneath this structure, it's just not a good point to look at.

你已经开始看到短期移动平均线向上交叉。

You're already starting to see the short term moving averages cross back to the upside.

你开始看到一些盘整。

You're starting to see some consolidation.

它正试图在这里形成一个圆形底部反转。

It's trying to put in this rounding bottom reversal in here.

你希望从Pengu的结构角度来看，这种走势能持续下去。

That's what you want to see continue from Pengu's structure side.

如果出现任何向下的破位，我认为就进入了危险区域。

If you get anything that's breaking to the downside, I think it's in a danger zone.

而且，你再次面临显著波动的风险，因为正如我们迄今为止所见，从高点回落时，一旦结构被突破，就会出现大幅下行波动，这些走势中就能看到这一点。

And again you're at risk of decent volatility, because as we've seen so far off the highs, when structure breaks it gets a lot of volatility to the downside, and you see it with these moves.

暴跌133%。

Boom this 133% drop.

暴跌140%。

Boom this 140% drop.

暴跌140%。

Boom this 140% drop.

这次又暴跌了40%。

This one boom another 40% drop.

这次下跌了138%。

This 138% drop.

所以当你开始向下突破结构时，看到Pengu价格出现30%到40%的跌幅并不罕见。

So when you start breaking structure to the downside it's not uncommon to see a 3040% drop in Pengu's price.

因此，我非常希望保持这个圆弧底形态的结构，同时要格外谨慎。

So I would really wanna hold the structure here for this rounding bottom, and be a little bit careful.

因为如果你真的跌破了这个结构，我们就知道可能会出现什么样的波动。

Because if you do break that structure, we know what kind of volatility can come.

这里的不同在于，当它试图形成这个不错的圆形底部时，如果你突破了1.3美分上方，就没什么能阻止它回升到大约2.2美分，也就是接近200日均线的位置。

The difference here is that, hey, with it trying to put in this nice rounding bottom, if you break above maybe 1.3¢, there's not a lot stopping it from going back up to maybe 2.2¢ up in here around that two hundred day moving average.

所以，就像向下突破结构时可能引发剧烈的下行波动一样，一旦向上突破结构，也可能出现强烈的上行波动。

So just as volatile as this can be to the downside when you break downward structure, If you break upward structure you can see a lot of volatility to the upside as well.

因此，现在只能耐心等待，看接下来会发生什么、可能发生什么。

And so it's a little bit of a waiting game to see what will happen and what can happen here.

但你知道，Pengu是个相当有名的名字。

But you know Pengu is a pretty big name.

他们有很多优势。

They got a lot going for them.

所以是的，我认为他们的基本面确实相当不错。

So yeah think the fundamentals Yeah of them are pretty

每当我和Brian和Joe一起做节目时，总会有事情发生。

there were always when I have Brian and Joe on the show it's like there's always something going on.

他们刚刚和曼城达成了合作。

They just had a partnership with like Man City.

他们刚和NHL合作举办了户外比赛。

They just did the outdoor game with the NHL.

我的意思是，这里有人在评论里说，是的，他们靠毛绒玩具、书籍这些东西做了一个相当棒的实体生意。

I mean there somebody in the comments here Ron was saying like yeah it's a pretty awesome real business with the plush toys and books and all that stuff.

这一点我们会在《加密货币101》播客中持续为你关注。

Something that again, we're always gonna keep track of for you at the crypto one hundred one pod.

这是布伦丹对技术分析的深度专业解析。

That was Brendan's just expertise deep dive of technical analysis.

如果你想每周两次、每次一小时跟随布伦丹学习，点击下方链接参加他的六周微波交易课程。

If you want that twice a week for an hour with Brendan, check the link below for his six week, micro boron trading course.

布伦丹的知识无穷无尽，你每周都能获得他的直播问答环节，直接接触布伦丹。

Again, endless knowledge to learn from Brendan and you get the live sessions of the q and a's, just pure access to Brendan every week.

所以请在下方评论区查看。

So check it out in the comments below.

我这里有个链接给你。

I got a link there for you.

最后再请求一下，如果你还没做的话，给这个视频点个赞。

And one last ask if you haven't yet, give this video a thumbs up.

如果你还没点赞和订阅的话，请现在就做。

Like and subscribe if you haven't.

我们真的非常感激。

We really do appreciate it.

这有助于我们成长。

It helps us grow.

今天真是个超级棒的周五。

This has been a super awesome Friday.

Brendan，非常感谢你来和我们共度时光，并分享你关于技术分析的专业知识。

Brendan, thank you so much for coming and spending the time with us and giving us your expertise for technical analysis.

有很多新闻需要梳理。

Lot of news to break down.

很有趣。

Lot of fun.

我下周还会回来。

I'm gonna be back next week.

我觉得周一会有布莱恩和乔。

I think we have Brian and Joe Monday.

我会在社区里发个帖子，告诉大家具体时间。

I'll put a post in the community to let everybody know what time that'll be.

但今天我们就到这里了。

But that's gonna be it for us today.

希望大家喜欢这期节目，祝你们周末愉快。

I hope everybody enjoyed the show and have a great rest of your weekend.

谢谢大家的参与。

Thank you guys for joining.

我们很快再聊。

We'll talk to you soon.

再见，大家。

Bye bye, everybody.