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好了，各位。
Alright, everybody.
欢迎回到由Gemini赞助的加密货币101播客，Gemini是通往未来货币的桥梁，而我们美国正与伊朗处于战争状态。
Welcome back to the crypto one zero one podcast presented by Gemini, your bridge to the future of money, and we, as The United States, are at war with Iran.
伊朗战争将如何影响加密货币？
How is the war in Iran going to affect crypto?
伊朗战争将如何影响比特币？
How is the war in Iran gonna affect Bitcoin?
通常，当像这样全球性的战争或重大政治事件爆发时，所有市场都会因恐惧而下跌。
Normally, when wars and giant political things break like this across the world, all the markets start to dump fear.
人们想要现金。
People want cash.
人们想要债券。
People want bonds.
他们想要出售国债。
They want treasuries to Sell.
卖出。
Sell.
卖出。
Sell.
卖出。
Sell.
情况并非如此，今天这期节目我们将彻底剖析这一切。
Not the case, and we're gonna break all that down for you today on this episode.
我身边有我的朋友布莱恩。
I have my friend Brian with me.
我们要讨论的内容非常多，但首要话题是加密货币和比特币目前如何受到伊朗战争的影响。
We have a whole plethora of things to go through, but the number one topic we're gonna break down is how crypto and how Bitcoin are being currently by the war in Iran.
我们也会分析宏观市场，因为此时此刻，我们认为标普500指数、债券市场和等权重标普指数之间存在许多相关线索。
And we're gonna go over the macro markets as well because at this point in time, we feel like there's a lot of clues that are correlated around the S and P 500, the bond market, the equal weight S and P.
我们要聊的内容非常多，布莱恩还深入研究了伊朗这个国家如何对待比特币，以及这可能如何影响价格，或者是一些你做研究时必须了解的有趣事实，以便自己做出判断。
We've got a ton of things to talk about and some deep diving that Brian did around how Iran, the country, deals with Bitcoin and maybe how that could affect the price or at least some fun facts that you need to know for all your research to make your own decisions.
欢迎来到Crypto 101播客，我邀请了Brian。
This is the Crypto one zero one podcast, and I welcome in Brian.
Brian，欢迎来到节目，我的朋友。
Brian, welcome to the show, my friend.
谢谢你和我一起做这个节目。
Thank you for doing it with me.
今天星期二，你怎么样？
How are you doing on this Tuesday?
这开场白太棒了，老兄。
What an intro, man.
我的意思是，我知道你充满激情。
I mean, I know you're fired up.
Tiva今天在节目开始前刚上线了，对吧？
Tiva jumped on today, right before the rundown.
我当时感觉特别兴奋，你和我聊了大概五到十分钟，讨论了市场上发生的所有事情。
It was like, I'm feeling pretty fired up today, and we went on to go probably five, ten minutes, you and me, talking about everything happening in the market.
我们当时就想，天啊，得把这段保存下来做节目总结，因为我们还没正式开始就已经聊了十分钟了。
And we were like, man, we need to save this for the rundown because we're pretty much ten minutes into the show without even getting going.
你可以看到，现在有很多事情在发生——也许‘兴奋’这个词不太准确，但确实有很多值得关注的动态，这些都会影响宏观新闻和加密货币价格，我们就是来为大家解析这些的。
You can see, there's a lot excitements maybe the not the best term, but there's a there's a lot going on right now, a lot of things to be paying attention to, and it's gonna affect a lot of macro news, a lot of crypto prices, and we're here for it to break it down.
是的。
Yeah.
确实有很多事情在发生。
There's a lot going on.
而且，就像你说的，这并不是什么令人兴奋的事，但整个周末以来，新闻一个接一个地爆发。
And, again, it's not something that is like you said, it's not exciting, but it's just there's just breaking news left and right over the weekend.
除非你住在伊拉克的山洞里，否则你肯定知道，美国和以色列已经对伊朗发动了袭击和空袭。
Unless you're living under Iraq, you're aware that the The US has has opened attacks and airstrikes along with Israel into the country of Iran.
我们对背后的原因、目的和细节并没有特定的看法。
We don't necessarily have any takes on why, what, where, and and the reasons behind it.
我们只是需要对市场上的动态做出反应。
We just have to react to what's going on in the markets.
这正是这个节目的宗旨。
That's what this show is about.
有趣的是，我想我们可以先开始，我们会混合讨论。
And interestingly enough, I guess we can start out we're gonna mix.
通常，当Brian在的时候，我们总会打开CoinMarketCap。
Usually, we always pull up coin market cap when Brian's on.
有趣的是，我想我们就从这里开始，但所有事情在这里都相互关联。
So interestingly enough, I think we'll start with that, but it all it all bleeds together here.
所以我要打开比特币的图表。
So I'm gonna bring up the Bitcoin chart here.
我们有周线图，我想是在周五晚上到周六凌晨，那个行动开始了。
We have the one week and the I guess it was early Saturday morning over the night, Friday night, the the the operation, if you will, started.
然后比特币在周六凌晨2点15分（东部时间）左右触底。
And then the Bitcoin did a bottom tick in in the middle of the night at, like, 02:15AM eastern on the twenty eighth, Saturday morning.
你知道，你只是坐在那里。
You know, you you're kinda sitting there.
我记得我好像醒过来，心想：天哪。
I remember I remember kinda, like, waking up being like, oh my god.
我收到了一堆通知。
I got all these notifications.
我想，又来了。
I'm like, here we go again.
这简直就是清仓了。
Like, this is the flush.
我真的没有采取任何个人行动。
Like, literally, I didn't I did not take any action personally.
我们在这里说的任何内容都不是针对任何人的个人财务建议。
And, nothing we say here is personal financial advice for anybody.
这只具有教育性质。
It's educational in nature.
但我记得周六一大早醒来，收到了一堆通知。
But, like, I kinda remember waking up Saturday morning early, getting all these notifications.
我心想，哎呀，又来了。
I'm like, ah, here we go again.
这就是清仓了。
This is the flush.
它要跌破60了。
It's gonna break 60.
感觉我们要进入第三次世界大战了。
It's like we're going to World War three.
但我当时想，还是先观察一下情况吧。
But I was like, let's monitor the situation.
而且它在底部附近出现了一次不错的反弹。
And it it had a nice bounce off the bottom there.
到了下午晚些时候，宣布了伊朗最高领袖——我想应该是他们抓到了美国政府一直想抓的那个主要人物。
And then once we got to, like, mid afternoon, it was announced that Ayatollah, the leader of Iran, I guess they they got the main guy that The US Government was trying to get.
整个市场对此似乎稍微松了一口气。
And the market as a whole kinda took that as maybe a little bit of alleviation.
好吧。
Like, okay.
这个行动进展顺利。
This operation is going good.
至少对他们想做的事情来说，进展很快。
It's going quick for at least what they want to do.
比特币在周六到周六晚上开始反弹。
And and Bitcoin started kind of rallying back Saturday into Saturday evening.
而且，再次强调，每当这些通常在周末发生的行动出现时，观察比特币和加密货币市场总是很有趣，因为那时新闻媒体的报道通常比平时更少。
And and, again, I think it's always fun to look at Bitcoin and the crypto market specifically when these operations, which usually do happen over the weekend, they try to kinda keep it when the the news wires are a little more quiet than normal.
所以行动在周末进行，而比特币是唯一在交易的资产。
So the operation happens over the weekend, and and Bitcoin's the only thing that trades.
记住，股市是关闭的。
Again, remember, the stock market's closed.
因此，观察周六晚上到周日的这次反弹很有意思。
So it was interesting to watch that rally Saturday night and then into Sunday.
我的意思是，我觉得我们是不是已经突破70了？
I mean, we even I think we kissed did we kiss 70?
我知道我们当时是69。
I know we were 69.
我们达到了69千。
We got 69 k.
不错。
Nice.
然后我们可能甚至突破了70，但现在又回调到了66附近，目前交易在68。
And then we might have even kissed 70, and now we're retracing a little bit into the 66 to right now trading at 68.
但看这一周的情况，Brian，我们来总结一下。
But on the one week, you see this let's summary here, Brian.
我交给你了。
I hand it off to you.
这一周，比特币在夏天上涨了6%？
One week, Bitcoin's up 6% during what summer?
打电话说，嘿。
Calling like, hey.
这会演变成第三次世界大战吗？
Could this turn into World War three?
我的意思是，我们会稍微谈一下，但这是美国和伊朗的问题。
I mean, we're gonna talk about it a little bit, but this is US Iran.
伊朗不是那种你知道的，他们不是全球强国，但也不是无足轻重的国家。
Iran's not some you know, again, they're not a global powerhouse, but they're not they're not a not for nothing country.
他们拥有武器。
They have they have weapons.
他们有一些反击能力。
They have, you know, some pushback.
他们有俄罗斯和中国的支持，这可能会让你提到的中国感到不满。
They have the backing from Russia and China, which is something that could, you know, piss China off like you're gonna talk about.
但总的来说，你从这个周末的比特币价格走势中学到了什么？
But just your your overall take, what did you learn from the weekend about the Bitcoin price action?
你对此有什么看法？
How do you feel about it?
每当我听到伊朗袭击的消息时，我都以为我们会直接跌回五十年代。
I I whenever I heard that the news of the attacks in Iran, I thought we were gonna flush to the fifties.
你知道，我对任何新闻都已习以为常。
You know, I'm just so conditioned to any sort of news.
当我们收到看涨消息时，感觉市场却在下跌；而当出现‘第三次世界大战’这类头条时，我以为市场会跌得更惨。
We get bullish news and it feels like we've gone down and then when we get, you know, next World War three type headlines, I thought we were gonna flush a lot harder.
所以，我本人对市场依然维持在我们几周来讨论的这个区间感到意外。
So I I was personally surprised to see that we kinda kept in this range that we've been talking about for weeks right now.
我认为你和布伦丹也注意到了。
I think you and Brendan have.
我知道我一直大喊，感觉价格区间就在六十到七十二之间。
I know I've been kinda screaming like, feels like there's a range between, like, sixty and seventy two.
当然。
Sure.
我们可能会暂时突破这些区间，但这段时期内，这种震荡区域确实很明显。
We can kinda get out of those ranges, but that definitely feels like the chop zone for some time.
而且，你知道，在这些重大新闻频出之后，我们一度触及了70。
And, you know, we touched all the way to 70, after a lot of these big headlines were hitting.
所以我对这一点感到惊讶。
So I was surprised by that.
我认为我们还没有脱离危险。
I don't think we're out of the woods yet.
我觉得市场接下来还会出现更多波动。
I think there's gonna be a lot more volatility in the markets.
我知道，你今天早上醒来时，我最后一次查看时，唯一的情况是比特币价格上涨，而我的屏幕上，油价也在上涨。
I know, you know, you wake up today, pretty much the only thing last time I checked, you had the price of Bitcoin up, and on my screen, I had the price of oil up.
所以我只是好奇油价现在是多少，它目前几乎上涨了9%。
So I was just curious what oil was trading at, and it's up, almost 9% right now.
显然，霍尔木兹海峡已经关闭了。
Obviously, the Strait Of, Hormuz was closed.
这可能会让油价继续上涨，而其他许多资产类别则可能下跌。
That's gonna, you know, cause, you know, the price of oil to kinda continue to go up more likely, in a lot of other, asset classes are gonna probably bleed out.
我上次查看时，股市是下跌的，黄金也在下跌。
I I the stock market last time I checked was down, gold was down.
所以，我觉得我们其实一直在等这件事发生。
So, you know, it's it's something that I think we've been kinda waiting for.
我们已经讨论了对伊朗的袭击和相关市场波动好几周甚至好几个月了，我一直在等这件事真的发生。
You know, we've been talking about, like, these strikes on Iran and poly market for weeks and months now, and it it it's I was kinda just waiting for it to happen.
我不是战争专家。
I'm I'm no war expert.
我不想深入探讨地缘政治原因，但伊朗和中国有一些联系。
I don't wanna get into the geopolitical reasons why, but Iran has some ties to China.
伊朗和俄罗斯也有一定的联系。
They have some ties to Russia.
就在我们刚上线之前，我就跟你说过，中国现在很可能对这一切的发生感到非常不满。
And while I was saying to you before we even jumped on, I go, China's probably pretty ticked right now about how all this happened and what's going on.
你知道，我可以构建一个论点，说明他们可能会卖出一些美国国债，转而购买黄金等资产类别，因为他们已经这样做了很久，我觉得他们对目前的情况有点不满。
You know, I could I could build a thesis around where they could sell some, you know, US treasuries and buy asset classes like gold and, you know, something along those lines because they've been doing that for a while now and I I I I think they're a little ticked off on what's going on.
但总体而言，我对我们维持在这个区间感到惊讶。
But overall, I was surprised that we held this range.
我认为我们会在震荡区间内盘整一段时间，但我不想说这很好。
I I think we're going to kind of move sideways in the chop zone for some time, but it it's it's I don't wanna say it's nice.
我正想找一个词来形容，蒂沃，你知道是哪个词吗？
What is what's the word I'm looking for here, Tivo?
知道这些信息很有价值，好吧。
It's it's good intel to know that, like, alright.
这些袭击已经发生了。
These strikes have happened.
听起来这不会是一场周末战争，会持续得更久一些。
It it sounds like it's gonna be a little bit more it's not gonna be a weekend war.
我们已经见过几次这样的情况了。
We've seen a few of those.
这就像委内瑞拉一样。
It was like Venezuela.
听起来美国方面表示，这种情况还会持续一段时间。
It sounds like The United States is saying that this is gonna go on for a little bit longer.
在我看来，我们会看到一些波动，但这并不会让我对加密货币市场的发展退缩。
So we we're gonna see some volatility in my eyes, but that doesn't make me shy away from what's going on in the crypto market.
我不是提供财务建议的。
I do not financial advice.
我个人真的很喜欢在这个区间对比特币进行定期定额投资。
I do really like Bitcoin kind of in this range to dollar cost averaging personally.
这纯粹是我个人的做法。
This is personally what I'm doing.
我们当然可能进一步下跌。
We could certainly flush down lower.
显然，我们总是会谈到这一点。
Obviously, we always talk about that.
但我并不讨厌在这个区间持有一段时间，毕竟需要一些催化剂来推动行情前进，不过我认为我们还有很多机会进行美元成本平均法投资。
But I I do I don't hate it in this range for some time to, you know, get some catalyst to move forward, but I I think we're gonna have plenty of opportunity to dollar cost averaging.
我认为短期内不太可能出现任何所谓的‘神烛’走势。
I don't think we're seeing any god candles till a 100 anytime soon.
是的。
Yeah.
完全同意。
Totally agree.
布伦丹和我曾在播客中讨论过，建立一些长期头寸，适当参与一些杠杆期权，同时买入现货。
And Brendan and I have talked about on the pod of building some of our longer positions, having some fun, maybe looking out with some leaps, and then buying spots.
所以，这正是一个时机，我想我们已经很好地应对了这次下跌，应对了所谓的2020年、2025年和2026年的熊市，现在正是重新调整、明确自己定位和决定要积累哪些资产的好时机。
So it's like, it's a time to you know, I think we've kinda covered it well through this drawdown, through this quote, unquote bear market that we've experienced in '20 the '25 and the '26, you know, the opportunity is there to kinda recalibrate and and understand where you wanna be and what what assets you wanna accumulate.
但在短期窗口期内，还有很多有趣的现象值得关注。
But in the short term window, there's just a lot of interesting kind of notes.
而且我在这档节目中一直关注着软件股。
And and I I've been covering on this show of of the software stocks.
对吧？
Right?
所以比特币被卷入了软件股中。
So Bitcoin got caught up into the software.
如果你听这个节目，我不想老生常谈，因为你已经明白了。
If you listen to this show, I I don't wanna beat a dead horse because you understand that.
但对我来说，最新进展最有趣的是，当我查看IGV——也就是那个软件ETF时，过去五天上涨了4%。
But the most interesting thing for me, the newest updates is how if I pull up the IGV, which again is that software ETF, the last five days up 4%.
我刚刚给你看了比特币上周上涨了6%。
I just showed you the last last week for Bitcoin up 6%.
这告诉我什么，Tivo软件？
So what what is this telling me, Tivo Software?
这对你来说意味着什么？
What is it telling you?
这告诉我，如果发生全球性爆发或全球战争，这些东西会不会继续下跌？
It's telling me that there's again, if there's a global outbreak, a global war, can I can all this stuff go lower?
当然。
Absolutely.
没有人有水晶球。
Where the nobody has a crystal ball.
没人会告诉你。
Nobody, you know, is gonna tell you.
如果有人告诉你他们确切知道某事会怎样，那他们是在骗你。
If anybody tells you they know exactly where something's going, they're lying to you.
我们这里不这么做。
We don't do that here.
但这些线索正在告诉我们一些事情。
But the clues are telling us something.
嘿。
Hey.
全球性的，你知道的，全球危机，世界大战，你明白的，可能正处在三线并行的境地，指的是世界上正在发生的事。
Global, you know, global global crisis, World War, you know, three on on the line possibly here in the sense of, you know, what's going on around the world.
而且这些股票在过去五天里上涨了。
And and these stocks are up in the last five days.
而比它们涨得更多的只有石油，这真的很有趣。
And the only thing up more is oil, which is is really interesting.
所以这说明，好吧，卖方已经卖出了。
And, you know, so that says, like, okay, the sellers have already sold.
他们已经基于对人工智能的担忧，或者可能是一些内部消息，卖出了。
They've already sold on, you know, the fears of AI or maybe there's some ins.
显然，总有人总是知道一些内情。
Clearly, there's there's always somebody always knows.
对吧？
Right?
Polymarket 告诉了我们这一点。
Polymarket shows us that.
但你知道，他们早就知道这场战争要来了。
But, you know, they they knew that this, you know, war was coming.
不。
No.
进攻伊朗的整个决定不可能在七十二小时内做出。
This this whole decision to go into Iran doesn't happen in seventy two hours.
这计划是经过数周，甚至数月的策划与协调。
This was planned, coordinated over weeks, if not months.
我敢说，你知道吗？
And I'm sure I you know what?
我甚至可以说，如果我们想说——我不一定非得说这是阴谋论，但好吧。
I would even say if we wanna you know, you I don't wanna say tinfoil hat necessarily, but, like, like, alright.
我们不会在奥运会期间做这件事。
We're not gonna do this during the Olympics.
所以，他们的整个计划从1月1日就开始了。
So, like, they had this whole plan from, you know, January 1.
就像是，嘿。
It was like, hey.
在2026年，我们要做这件事，但我们要先做好计划。
In '26, we're gonna do this, but we're gonna plan it.
我们要进行训练演习。
We're gonna run our training exercises.
我们要做好准备。
We're gonna get ready.
我们要等奥运会结束，然后再去对付他们。
We're gonna let the Olympics pass, and then we're gonna go get them.
这根本不是什么疯狂的想法。
Like, it it that's not a crazy take.
所以人们都知道了，然后就会说，好吧。
So people know this, and the and then so it's like, okay.
挑出你们的赢家。
Take your winners.
如果消息在某些幕后悄悄泄露，谁会是那些最耀眼的赢家？
What are the highest flying winners if word gets out in some you know, behind closed doors?
而且，你知道，我们都知道南希·佩洛西的追踪器。
And, you know, we we we all know the Nancy Pelosi tracker.
你知道吧？
You know?
她知道什么时候该选赢家。
She knows when to pick the winners.
我肯定有些人知道，并在内部圈子里透露该卖什么。
I'm sure some people know and and tell insider circles of what to sell.
所以，无论是AI热潮还是以战争为借口的抛售，这告诉我的是，嘿。
So whether it was an AI caught up or whether it was a pretense of war sell off, like, it's it it what this tells me is like, hey.
除非关于AI交易、软件交易或全球危机出现新信息，否则卖家们已经卖光了。
There unless there's new information around the AI trade, around the software trade, around global crisis, like, sellers the sellers have already sold.
他们已经清仓了比特币。
They've already sold out of Bitcoin.
他们已经清仓了这种科技类软件ETF。
They've already sold out of this tech, you know, software ETF.
我最后要提的一点是，我会谈到标普500指数。
And my last point, I'm gonna bring up the S and P 500.
所以标普500指数显然是市值最高的500家公司。
So the S and P 500 is, obviously, the top 500 companies of market cap.
所以，年初至今下跌了1.5%。
And so, year to date, down 1.5%.
但如果你去看标普500等权重指数，这意味着如果你投资标普500 ETF，标普500是按市值加权的。
But then if you go over to the S and P 500 equal weight, and so what that means is the if you do an S and P 500 ETF, the S and P 500 is weighted to to the market caps.
比如，Meta、苹果、微软这些公司。
Like, hey, Meta, Apple, Microsoft.
你知道，这些公司在标普500指数中的权重会更高，而等权重标普500指数则是另一回事。
You know, those companies are gonna be weighted more in the S and P, whereas the S and P 500 equal weight is like, hey.
如果你只是平均投资这500家公司中的每一家。
If you just took an equal piece of the 500 companies.
所以等权重指数上涨了3%。
And so the equal weight is up 3%.
标普500下跌1.5%。
The S and P 500 down 1.5.
等权重指数上涨了3.5%。
Equal weight is up three and a half percent.
对于这类大型指数来说，这个差距非常大。
That's a huge delta for these type of larger indexes.
这告诉我，资金并没有离开股市。
And so what that tells me is that the money is not leaving the stock market.
事实上，标普500等权重指数今年到目前为止，基本上是持平的。
In fact, the S and P 500 equal weight is basically, I guess, year to date.
我的意思是，它在二月创下了历史新高，而现在是二十七日，又创新高了。
So, I mean, it just hit an all time high at the February, and then we're, you know, the twenty seventh, all time high.
然后我们进入了战争时期，因此它和其他资产一起出现了抛售。
And then we roll into war, so it's selling off, you know, with everything else.
所以这很合理。
So that makes sense.
但这告诉我，嘿。
But it's it's telling me that, hey.
尽管资金已经撤离了这些人工智能交易、软件股和加密货币的抛售，但并没有完全离开市场。
As much as the money's left on these AI trades and the selling of the software, the selling of crypto, it's not leaving the market entirely.
资金没有涌向债券。
It's not running to bonds.
也没有完全转向现金。
It's not, you know, totally running to cash.
市场只是在不断轮动。
The the market's just moving around.
资金正在不断流动。
The money is moving around.
当人们真正、真正、真正感到恐惧，不想留在市场时，你就会知道。
And when people are truly, truly, truly scared and don't wanna be in the markets, then you'll know.
那时会出现大规模抛售，而等权重指数也不会再创历史新高。
Then there's a huge sell off and the, you know, the equal weight isn't at all time highs.
所以我觉得还有很多值得探讨的地方。
So I think there's a lot to be.
我不想说这一定是积极的。
I don't wanna say necessarily positive.
外面确实是个令人恐惧的时期，我们当然经历了一次巨大冲击，但这是建设性的。
It is a scary time out there, and we've had, you know, a huge blow for sure, but it's constructive.
这感觉就像一个建设性的时期。
It just feels like a constructive time.
所以我想把话筒还给你，布莱恩。
So I wanna hand it back off to you, Brian.
你有一些关于伊朗在比特币领域的情况的数据。
You had some stats about just kind of Iran specifically in the Bitcoin realm.
是的。
Yeah.
我想我们之前对此有一点了解，但我深入研究了一下数据，当然，这里有些估算值。
I think we knew this a little bit, but I I dug into the numbers a little bit and, you know, give or take some estimates here.
但看起来伊朗曾是全球前五到前十的比特币挖矿国家，他们声称自己的比特币算力占2%到5%，这非常有趣。
But it looks like Iran was, like, a top five, top 10 Bitcoin mining country in the world, and they say they're between two to 5% Bitcoin hash rate, which is really interesting.
而且似乎在2025年，他们大约有78亿美元的比特币，这可能是为了规避某些制裁并利用它实现其他目的。
And it sounds like in 2025, they had about 7,800,000,000.0, give or take, of Bitcoin, and that was to bypass some sanctions and whatever they were utilizing with it.
所以我觉得这真的很有趣，因为他们曾占到比特币算力的5%。
So I don't I I just found that interesting, honestly, because they were, you know, 5% of the Bitcoin hash rate.
我不认为这会对比特币网络造成重大影响，我们可能只是会在那里遇到一些中断或类似情况。
I don't think that's gonna affect the Bitcoin network, and we'll probably have some outages there and what's going on.
但你知道，这只是将话题重新拉回到加密世界的一种方式，确实很有趣。
But, you know, just a just a way to kinda correlate or pull this back into the crypto world, it was certainly interesting.
但你知道，关于伊朗发生的一切，我们显然希望世界上所有人能拥有最好的结果。
But, you know, everything that's going on, Iran, we we obviously wanna say that we we want what's best for the world and what's best for people overall.
我们并不是这方面的专家，但看到这些宏观事件如何影响市场、影响全球市场，确实很有趣。
And we're not experts there, but it is interesting to see how these macro events are do affect the market, affect the market globally.
当你把这些与加密货币联系起来时，就会发现比特币算力占了5%。
And then when you correlate it back to crypto, you know, 5% of the Bitcoin hash rate.
我有点惊讶这个数字竟然这么高。
I I was I was a little bit surprised that that number was as high as it was.
是的。
Yeah.
这些确实是些有趣的事实。
That that those are some interesting facts for sure.
而且，我认为这值得持续关注。
And, again, I think it's something to monitor.
我认为，规避制裁是伊朗使用加密货币最有趣的部分，但我并不认为那里有足够的资金足以引发全球性的抛售。
I think the sanctions, you know, evading the sanctions are the are the most, you know, interesting part of the use case for, you know, Iran, but I don't think that, you know, there's not enough money there just to trigger some, you know, global sell off.
你觉得呢？
What what did you think?
你之前说黄金值得关注。
I think you were saying that gold's interesting to watch here.
比特币也值得关注，因为一些对抗美国这一举措的国家，比如俄罗斯和中国的对手，可能会这么做。
Bitcoin's interesting to watch here because, you know, some of the the counters to, you know, The US making this move is, you know, adversaries of Russia and China.
中国特别被指出，比如说。
China specifically has been noted to, like, hey.
我们会出售，你知道的，我们会出售技术。
We'll sell, you know, we'll sell off, you know, technology.
我们会抛售股票，然后抛售国债。
We'll sell off stocks, then we'll sell off treasuries.
比如，我们不会购买美国国债，作为一种反制措施。
Like, we won't buy US treasuries as kind of a counter move.
所以，你认为这与比特币相对于黄金有关，还是只是你在关注的事？
So is that something you think correlated to Bitcoin versus gold or just something you're keeping an eye on?
是的。
Yeah.
我更多只是在关注它。
It it's more I'm just keeping an eye on it.
我不是那种会说‘现在是买黄金的时候了’的人。
I I'm not one of those people that really, like, go after, like, it's now time to buy gold.
现在是买入比特币的时候了。
It's now time to buy Bitcoin.
我现在看这两种资产，它们的价格可能相当有吸引力。
I look at both assets really right now where the prices are probably pretty attractive.
我可以为两者都构建一个合理的论据。
I could build a case for both.
我更倾向于比特币，因为我的背景，以及我对它未来走向和整体上升空间的看法。
I feel more comfortable with Bitcoin because of, you know, my history and and just where I think it's going and just the upside overall.
但我觉得黄金也可能很有趣，因为我预计中国会大量抛售美国国债，转而买入黄金。
But, you know, I I I think gold could be interesting here because of, you know, I I could see China selling a lot of US treasuries and buying gold.
我不确定。
I don't know.
这似乎是有道理的。
That's that's something that seems to make sense.
他们已经这样做了很长时间。
They've been doing it for some time.
但从加密货币的角度来看，我认为比特币现在非常有吸引力。
But from a crypto standpoint, I think Bitcoin looks very attractive here.
只有一个代币，我们就不深入讨论了。
One token, and we don't have to get into this.
我们可能会再聊一次行情回顾。
We'll probably talk about another run a rundown.
已经出现了很多非常有趣的代币。
There's been a lot of really interesting tokens.
它们都稍微落后了一点，但Hyper Liquid的Hype不错。
All to been lagging behind slightly, but hyper liquid hype Mhmm.
这一周上涨了20%，今天上涨了4%，涨幅超过30美元。
Is up, like, 20% on the week, up 4% on the day, up over $30.
在Hype上，你可以交易黄金、白银和铜的永续合约，最近非常活跃。
And that's a lot of its its you can trade perps of, you know, gold, silver, and copper over on hype, and it's been getting a lot of action.
在这些波动剧烈的日子和周里，我们经常谈到这一点。
And we talk about this kind of in these volatile days, these volatile weeks.
其中一个表现非常出色的代币是HyperLiquid。
One of the tokens that seems to perform really well is HyperLiquid.
再次强调，这并非对任何人的财务建议。
And, again, not financial advice for anybody out there.
我要坦白，我持有Hype和比特币的相当仓位，但这些是我最近一直关注的资产，看看它们如何应对当前市场。
I'll disclose that I do hold a healthy position in hype and a healthy position in Bitcoin, but those are those are a few assets I've just had my eyes on recently, how they've been reacting to the current market.
但比特币和黄金Hype在我看来很有趣。
But Bitcoin and gold hype looks interesting to me.
你可以为很多东西构建论据，但它们都围绕着同一件事。
You could build a case for a lot, but they're all kind of centered around the same thing.
我看到了那个数据。
I saw the stat.
好像是HyperLiquid在一天内从交易中赚了大约200万美元。
It was like hyper liquid made, I think, like, $2,000,000 in fees in, like, one day for from their trading.
而且，再次说明，如果我们能为你制作播客，我们非常开心。
And, again, if you're a part, we we love doing the podcast for you.
但同样，对于HyperLiquid，我们的团队已经在VIP通话和简报中讨论过它。
But, again, for Hyperliquid, it's something that our team has covered on the VIP calls, on the newsletters.
我知道，Rohit一直都在做研究，并发布了大量关于它的简报。
I know, you know, Rohit has been, you know, doing the research and putting out a bunch of newsletters on that.
所以，如果你是社区的一员，喜欢这个播客，喜欢Brian、Brendan和Bryce，那么像往常一样，下面有一个试用链接。
So if you if being in the community and if you love the podcast and you love Brian, you love Brendan, you love Bryce, you know, as always, there's a there's a trial down there.
我觉得Crip Nation的试用价是1美元。
Think it's like a $1 trial for Crip Nation.
Brian的团队Momentum Moneymakers with Brian and Joe的试用价是3美元。
There's a $3 trial for Brian's group, Momentum Moneymakers with Brian and Joe.
所以，我没法在这儿说清楚，但关键是这样。
So if, I can't we had here here's the thing.
我觉得上星期五我们请了Brendan来做他的技术分析专场，当时那个小组是开放的。
I think if you you we we had Brendan on for his, you know, technical analysis spectacular last Friday, and that cohort was open.
我当时就说，嘿。
And I was like, hey.
你知道，显然，我们的职责就是提醒你去了解一下。
You know, obviously, you know, it's our job to tell you to to check it out.
我当时就想，现在正是时候。
But I was like, now I think now's the time.
我们需要一些技术分析，需要一些策略。
We need a little bit of technical analysis, need a little bit of strategy.
我们觉得，现在正是研究和收集信息、做出决策的好时机。
You know, we feel like this is the opportune time to be figuring out and getting the research to, you know, make those decisions.
所以，如果你正在寻找教育和更多知识，就去看看下面的链接。
And so if education and more, you know, knowledge is what you're looking for, check the links below.
加入社区吧。
Join the community.
你可以每天更直接地接触到我们。
You get more access to us literally every single day.
但我想提一下，接下来我们会转到加密货币的具体内容，继续深入讨论。
But I I wanna I wanna bring up we'll we'll transition and start diving more into the crypto specific stuff for the rest of the show.
我们有一个详细的清单。
We have a big rundown.
我们上周五也和布伦丹提过这个。
I we teased this on Friday as well with Brendan.
今天我们采访了Robinhood。
We have our interview today with Robinhood.
乔汉·库尔博特，节目的老朋友，再次加入我们。
Johan Kurbot, friend of the show, of course, is joining us back again.
所以我们必须严格控制时间，如果我们没讲完清单上的所有内容，布莱恩这周晚些时候会回来补上。
And so we have to do a hard stop at, like, So if we don't hit everything on the rundown, Brian's gonna come back later this week.
我们现在开始逐一分享这些小贴士。
So we're gonna start doing our, you know, our kind of our tidbits here hitting them one by one.
但如果我们不得不提前结束，没讲完的部分，我们这周晚些时候会回来继续。
But whatever we don't finish, if we have to cut it short, we'll be back later this week.
所以一直说‘嘿’的是我。
So I'm the one that's been saying, hey.
你知道吗，把它和人工智能股票比较，把加密货币和比特币与软件比较。
You know, comparing it to the AI stocks, comparing crypto and Bitcoin to software.
我会说，不。
I'd say, no.
我不同意你的看法，Tivo。
I don't agree with you, Tivo.
你疯了。
You're crazy.
你懂什么？
What do you know?
好吧，我们听听别人怎么说。
Well, let's listen to other people.
接下来是Pantera的丹·莫雷黑德。
So then from Pantera's Dan Morehead.
我们都了解Pantera资本。
We all know Pantera Capital.
我们曾邀请他们参加峰会。
We've had them on the summits.
我们曾邀请他们做客播客。
We've had them on the the podcast.
你知道，这位老前辈在加密领域赚了巨额财富。
You know, this guy's this guy's an OG who's made a ton of money in the space.
让我们听听他对加密货币与人工智能和软件估值的看法。
Let's listen to his take on how crypto is being valued alongside AI and software.
接下来是前十名人工智能公司，它们的交易价格比长期趋势高出约20%。
Next are the top 10 AI companies, and they're trading about 20% over their long term trend.
而加密货币的交易价格则比其长期趋势低了50%。
And crypto is trading at a 50% discount to its long term trend.
所以，他是一位相对价值投资者。
So it was a kind of a relative value investor.
我认为，目前加密货币相对于人工智能来说非常便宜。
I think crypto is very cheap relative to AI at this point.
相对于正常水平来说，它便宜吗？
Is it cheap relative to just normalcy?
不。
No.
不。
No.
我觉得是的。
I think it is.
加密货币从高点下跌了50%。
Crypto's come off 50% from its highs.
我们预期到了这一点。
We're expecting that.
它的价值实际上处于过去八年趋势平均值的第七百分位。
And it's literally at its seventh percentile value against this eight year trend average.
所以，你知道，过去确实有过几次它的价格比现在更低，但目前它已经便宜到极点了。
So, you know, there have been a few times it's been a little bit cheaper than it is versus this trend, but right now, it's about as cheap as it gets.
此外，93%的时间里，它的历史水平都高于当前水平。
Also, 93 percent of the time, it has been above historically where it is right now.
没错。
Exactly.
关于加密货币，有一件非常惊人的是，所有持有比特币四年以上的投资者都赚了钱，对吧。
And one of the things that's that's wild about crypto is every investor that's owned Bitcoin for four years has made money Right.
在整个历史上，我从未见过像这样的资产类别。
Over the entire history, and I've never seen an asset class like that.
所以，只要你有多年的投资视角，现在就是入场的绝佳时机。
So as long as you have a multiyear view, this is a fantastic time to end it.
就在那儿。
There it is.
直接来自Pantera资本。
Straight from Pantera Capital.
与那些也在回调的AI股票、软件股票相比，它被低估了。
Undervalued compared to, you know, some of these AI stocks, software stocks that are also, you know, pulling back.
我觉得这很有趣。
So I thought that was interesting.
另一个我之前想提几次的数据，只是我们之前话题太多了。
Another stat that I found of a me and to bring this up for a couple weeks, but we just had so much to talk about.
今年比特币所有权的变化在2025年看起来令人震惊。
The change in Bitcoin ownership this year seems to be astounding for 2025.
就像是个人在抛售，我们之前也讨论过，看到一些古老的巨鲸账户在出货。
It's like individuals are selling, and we we kinda covered that where we saw some old ancient whale accounts offloading.
但再次强调，在十月到年底的波动中被洗出去的主要是个人，而企业、基金、ETF和政府则在买入。
But, again, getting shaken out in that volatility of October into the end of the year, you know, individuals are selling and businesses, funds, and ETFs, and governments are buying.
所以，把2025年这种宏观数据和你刚才听到的片段，以及我们团队一直在构建的关于当前市场阶段的逻辑结合起来看。
So, you know, you pair this kind of macro stat of 2025 along with kind of the clip you just heard and kind of the thesis that I think our team's been building around where we are in the space.
再次强调，现在是时候进行教育，也该自己做出财务决策了。
Again, it's time to educate and time to, you know, make your own decisions financially, of course.
我们不能替你决定该怎么做。
We we can't tell you what to do there.
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但如果你是一名研究者，正在收集所有这些信息，这种感觉真的很不错。
But if you're a researcher and you're gathering all this information, this feels this feels it feels good.
这种感觉很——我喜欢这种有建设性的。
It feels con I like constructive.
这是我今天的关键词，布莱恩。
That's my word of the day, Brian.
建设性。
Constructive.
在这里的感觉就是有建设性的。
It feels constructive here.
我来告诉你几个不是那些卖出个体的人。
I'll tell you a couple guys that aren't those individuals that have sold.
我们可能本来想在高点卖出，然后在低一点的时候买回来。
It's well, we probably like to have sold the top and buy back a little bit lower.
当然，我们本可以做得更精准一些，但我认为这张图表非常有影响力，我们经常提到它。
You know, we could always make a little bit stronger trade, but I I I think this is a pretty impactful slide that we talk about all the time.
你知道，零售业已经逐渐退出了。
You know, retail's kind of moved out.
他们受到了重创。
They they got hit hard.
我的意思是，有些人买入了七十年代、八十年代、九十年代的资产，甚至花了一百美元，然后经历了第一次大约50%的回调，这种情形我们已经经历过好几次了。
I mean, some of them bought seventies, eighties, nineties, a 100, and then they they experienced the first, you know, 50% pullback, which we've lived through a few times.
但整体的逻辑依然和以往一样强劲。
But the overall thesis is still as strong as ever.
基本面依然坚挺，我和帕内拉的首席执行官持完全相同的看法。
The fundamentals are as strong as ever, and I align very in the same park as Pantera's CEO right there.
我觉得他说得非常准确。
I think what he said is is quite accurate.
当然，任何人都可能出错，但我不确定。
Obviously, anybody could be wrong, but I don't know.
我个人觉得，这些企业、国家、州和基金都在加倍甚至三倍地押注加密世界。
Personally, I I feel like, you know, all these businesses and countries and states and funds just doubling and tripling down on the crypto world.
当然，我们现在看到的是回调，但在我看来，这正是一个巨大的机会。
Of course, we're seeing a pullback here, but that's that's a big opportunity in my eyes.
而且我并不疯狂。
And I'm not crazy.
Tivo，我真的不疯狂，老兄。
Tivo, I'm really not crazy, man.
也许吧。
Well, maybe.
我不知道。
I don't know.
我还没疯狂到会盲目地持续竞购我不相信的资产。
I'm not crazy enough to, like, blindly just keep bidding into an asset that I don't believe in.
比如，如果我失去信心，或者出现某种迹象表明我们可能无法恢复，我会在复盘时明确告诉人们。
Like, I will tell people on the rundown if I lose faith or there's, like, some catalyst here of like we're like, I don't know if we're gonna recover.
你知道，这里有些事情在线上根本说不通。
You know, there's something here that doesn't make a lot of sense to me online.
但所有迹象都表明，这是一次很好的机会。
But everything that it feels like this is a good opportunity.
我们之所以反复这么说，是因为事情总在变化，价格可能还会再低一点，但就像你之前说的，关于软件股和加密世界，我们似乎正在找到这个局部底部。
Again, we're just gonna keep saying because things happen, we could go a little lower, but this feels like you what you were saying with these software stocks and with the crypto world does feel like we're finding this local bottom.
我没有使用最大杠杆，但我个人觉得采用美元成本平均法是安心的。
I'm not putting max leverage in, but I feel personally comfortable to dollar cost averaging.
而且有很多数据表明，现在恐慌的散户正在抛售。
And there's a lot of, you know, we're just showing stat after stat where, you know, it feels like it's scared paper hands are selling right now.
而坚定的持有者正在加仓，也许几年后我们会回想起此刻，觉得这是个绝佳的机会。
And and the and the diamond hands are adding, and we're gonna maybe we're gonna be eating in a couple years thinking about how this is a great opportunity.
就像疫情期间价格跌到四千美元的时候。
Like, when it hit four grand during COVID.
那是可怕的时候，但天啊，真该把运钞车开过来，尽可能多买一些。
Scary times, but, man, should have backed up the Brink's truck and bought as much as we could.
是的。
Yeah.
这再次取决于你的个人情况和时间规划。
It's it's all again, it's all relative to your situation, your timeline.
我同意你的看法。
I agree with you.
如果情况发生变化，我们不会向你灌输自己都不相信的东西，但我觉得这某种程度上是一次很好的自我检视，市场本来就是这样运作的。
If if things change and, you know, we're not gonna feed you crap if we don't believe it, but I think it was I think this was a good gut check-in a way, and that's that's how markets work.
你总是觉得，价格好像会一直涨下去。
Like, you're always like, it just feels up forever.
我们已经尝试讨论过这一点。
We've tried to talk about that.
我知道在我们的通讯中，我们曾发布过一些关于狂热情绪的报道，试图剖析这种心态，我们也谈到过，市场是双向的。
I know in the newsletter we had, like, some euphoria newsletters and just trying to break that down, and we talk about you know, it goes both ways.
当你叔叔给我讲那个故事，说他打电话问你，该不该买入时。
When your uncle's I told that story of my uncle calling the you know, should he buy?
我当时想，也许我该卖掉一点，然后买个公寓。
I was like, oh, maybe I should sell a little bit and buy a condo.
当价格处于低点时，情况也是一样。
And then the same thing when it's at the low.
你所有的朋友都会给你打电话，说：‘比特币跌了50%了。’
All your friends start calling you, and they're like, oh, Bitcoin's down 50%.
我才不买这种垃圾呢。
Not buying that crap.
所以，市场确实完全双向波动。
So it goes it totally goes both ways for sure.
但我觉得，结合以上所有内容，还有Pantera和这张图表，都要提到节目的朋友Rahul Paul。
But one thing I think building off all this, the Pantera and this graphic as well, is Rahul Paul, friend of the show.
当然，我应该已经预约了他下周来做客。
Of course, he'll be, I think I booked him for next week.
所以，真是绝对的……
So just absolutely Oh.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，这些嘉宾都是大人物啊，老兄。
I mean, these are big boy guests, dude.
这些人都是一些我见了会有点紧张的人。
These are like people that I would be kinda nervous to, like, meet.
我会说，啊。
I'd be like, ah.
这太棒了。
This is cool.
每个人都有Tivo。
Everybody has Tivo.
你老是说‘节目的朋友’。
You say friend of the show a lot.
我是认真的。
I mean it.
节目的朋友，Raul Paul什么时候会再回来？
Friend of the show, Raul Paul on on will retail be back?
这里有个两分钟的片段，
Two minute clip here,
但我认为值得一听。
but I think worth a listen.
最快的投资回报。
The fastest possible returns.
如果你认同大多数散户投资者——比如Robinhood和Coinbase的用户——普遍在二三十岁这个观点的话。
If you go with the thesis that most retail investors, the Robinhood crowd and the Coinbase crowd, they're generally in their twenties and thirties.
他们通常买不起房子。
They generally can't afford a house.
他们通常在打两到三份工，正在寻找出路。
They're generally working two or three jobs, and they're looking for a way out.
因此他们会进行投机。
And so they will speculate.
他们也是游戏一代，所以输掉一切并不是世界末日，因为在游戏里输了还能重新开始。
They're also a gaming generation, so losing your life is not the end of the world because you lose it in games and you start again.
对吧？
Right?
他们从小玩电子游戏长大，所以这是一种冒险文化。
They grew up on gaming, so it's a risk taking culture.
当没有其他方式能摆脱困境时，这种冒险行为就是合乎逻辑的。
And it's a logical risk taking culture when there's no way of getting out of the trap unless you take risk.
所以他们只会往回报高的地方走。
So they just move where the returns are.
因此他们都上Robinhood交易Palantir和科技股的期权，然后当黄金和白银开始上涨时，他们又开始交易这些。
So they're all on Robinhood trading options on Palantir and tech stocks, and then gold and silver start going, they start trading that.
所以如果回报开始回归加密货币，而我们知道加密货币长期表现更优，我最近在X上发过一张关于黄金与加密货币比率的图表。
So if the returns start coming back to crypto, and we know that over time crypto's outperformed, I posted a chart on X recently about the gold crypto ratio.
我的意思是，自2020年以来，我认为比特币的回报率比黄金高出87.5%。
I mean I mean, since 2020, I think crypto Bitcoin's outperformed gold by 87 and a half percent.
因此，一旦加密货币开始上涨，就会产生一种超级强大的黑洞效应，因为它表现远超其他资产，从而吸走大量资金。
So as soon as crypto starts moving, it has that super massive black hole effect because it outperforms everything, and it just sucks in capital.
所以他们会回来的。
So they will be back.
他们并没有永远离开加密货币。
They didn't leave crypto forever.
他们只是在赌场输掉了赌注。
They just lost their stake at the casino.
如果他们还有赌注，就会去别的赌场，然后回到提供最佳赔率的赌场。
And if they've got a stake, they went elsewhere to the different casino, and they'll come back to whatever casino pays the best odds.
这正是我们几周前的几期节目中讨论的内容，当时我们谈到黄金价格飙升，简直疯狂。
It's exactly that is exactly what a couple of our episodes were weeks ago when we were talking, like you know, we had to talk about how gold was flying high and, like, you know, it was crazy.
情况变得非常疯狂。
It got crazy.
白银也是如此。
Silver as well.
然后我们经历了那个星期五。
And then we had that one Friday.
我想那是和布兰登一起的。
I think it was with Brendan.
我不确定你那天有没有在，那天白银在周五一天跌了25%。
I'm not sure if you were on it was that day that silver dropped, like, 25% any day on Friday.
那是个星期五。
It was like a Friday.
所以这就成了
And so it's
好吧。
like, okay.
资产储存，白银、黄金，黄金跌了12%。
Store of assets, silver, gold, gold was down to 12%.
白银当天下跌了25%，就因为这一点。
Silver was down 25% on the day for one point.
简直是疯狂的市值波动。
Like, crazy market cap type moves.
没关系。
It's okay.
是的。
Yes.
这些资产的基本面，你知道，你可以做研究并形成自己的观点，我认为其中任何一个都不一定是错的。
The fundamentals of these assets, you know, you could do the research and have the take, and and I don't think any of them are necessarily wrong.
但黄金和白银变成赌场了吗？
But did gold and silver turn into a casino?
绝对是的。
Absolutely.
加密货币赌场经常开张吗？
Does the crypto casino turn on a lot?
绝对是的。
Absolutely.
绝对是的。
Absolutely.
这真是个不错的观点。
And so that's a great take.
就像是，嘿。
It's like, hey.
当它运作良好时，人人都喜欢。
When it's working, everybody loves it.
当它不奏效，而其他东西表现更好时，人们就会转向别处。
When it's not and something else is working, people are gonna go elsewhere.
事情就是这样。
That's that's how it is.
事情就是这样。
That's how it is.
我已经五年没听人谈论过投资铜了。
I haven't heard people talk about investing in copper for five years.
但过去几个月，越来越多的人开始出来建议：你应该关注一下铜。
And then over the past few months, more people have come out and they're like, you should check out copper.
这是下一个要上涨的。
It's the next one to go.
我们这里很喜欢铜。
We love copper here.
这个铜，那个铜。
Copper this, copper that.
这纯粹是投机。
It's it's speculating.
你知道，他们看到别人在追逐下一个大机会，下一个上涨趋势，我觉得这没问题。
You know, they see they're trying to chase that next big win, that next that next move up, and I'm okay with it.
我也做投机。
I'm I speculate too.
你知道的。
You know?
我会试着跟随趋势。
I try to follow where the momentum is.
这一直是我的强项。
That's something that I've always done really well.
但我觉得拉胡尔·保罗说的非常非常准确，我以前从来没把这一点联系起来。
But, I think what what Rahul Paul said there is very, very accurate, and I never really put it together.
我会借用很多这些比喻，因为它们对我们来说非常有道理。
I'm gonna steal a lot of those analogies because it makes a lot of sense to us.
你知道吗？
You know?
我不是个狂热的游戏玩家，但这个世界上很多人都是玩家，他们理解从零开始、重新尝试、换条路走、解决问题这种感觉。
We're, I'm not a big gamer, but we a lot of people in this world are gamers, and they understand kinda going back to zero and starting over, trying again, trying a different route, problem solvers.
做朝九晚五工作的人越来越少，更多人试图在社交媒体上开创事业，或者在线销售服装、收藏品。
Less people, nine to five, more people that are trying to, you know, launch careers on social media or, you know, sell clothing online or collectibles.
这其实就是一种不同的思维方式。
I mean, it's just a different way of mind.
所以每当有机遇出现，我们看到资金开始回流，有机会抓住下一个重大机遇时，加密货币就是其中最大的机会之一，而且对于我们的世代来说，交易方式也变得如此直观和便捷。
So whenever there's opportunity and we start to see money flow back in and there's a chance to get that next big opportunity, and crypto is one of the biggest ones out there in the way trades makes it so intuitive and easy too for our generation.
它会回来的。
It's gonna flow back.
他所说的每一点，我都非常认同，我肯定会采纳很多这些观点。
So everything he said, I'm I'm really aligned to, and I'm I'm definitely stealing a lot of those points.
是的。
Yeah.
那真是个很棒的片段，我相信我已经预约了他周一来。
It was it was truly a great clip, and I believe I have him booked for Monday.
所以
So
这个人。
This guy.
这个搞加密货币的人。
I the crypto This guy.
就是在捕捞大鲸鱼，捕捞大鲸鱼。
Is just whale hunting whale hunting.
再说一遍，我说过，就像当公司和股价下跌、而公司仍在建设时，那些才是你想要参与的。
Again, I I said I said, it's like, Like, you know, when companies and prices are down and companies are building, that's the ones you wanna be a part of.
市场低迷。
Market's down.
加密货币入门课程是做什么的？
What does crypto one zero one do?
它仍然每周发布多集简报。
It still puts out multiple episodes a week of of the rundowns.
它依然能采访到这个领域最顶尖的人士。
It's still getting the best interviews in the space.
所以，如果你们喜欢并欣赏我们在YouTube上的内容，请给我们点个赞。
So if this is something that you guys like and you appreciate on YouTube, throw us a thumbs up.
如果是新来的朋友，请在右下角点击标志并订阅。
If you're new, bottom right, hit the logo and subscribe.
留言告诉我们你们的想法。
Drop a comment and let us know what you guys think.
我们一直很乐意听取你们的意见，并感谢大家的支持。
We're always, we're always interested in hearing from you guys and appreciate the listenership.
我觉得有一件事挺有意思的。
Something I thought was, interesting.
我知道你是我的预测市场超级周期专家。
I know you're my, you're my prediction market super cycle guy.
现在，纳斯达克正计划推出自己的预测市场。
Now the Nasdaq is looking to launch, its own prediction market.
所以，再次强调，这将受美国证交会监管，而不是商品期货交易委员会。
So, again, it's falling under the regulation of the SEC, not the CFTC.
有趣的是。
Interestingly enough.
这个预测市场与其他的相比，发生了巨大变化。
This prediction market, that's a huge change from the other ones.
是的。
Yeah.
这真的很有趣。
That's that's interesting.
我实际上没注意到这一点。
I I didn't pick pick that up, actually.
我昨天看到这条新闻 trending，当时心想，预测市场超级周期，我们讨论预测市场的很多理由确实是个非常有趣的未来应用场景，但我没注意到这个监管框架。
I saw this news trending yesterday, and I kinda was like prediction market super cycle and a lot of reasons why we we talk about prediction markets and it's a very interesting use case moving forward, but did not see that regulatory framework.
我们正在努力明确预测市场的监管规则，从内幕交易到合法性，再到游说者究竟在做什么，哪些属于 CFTC 管辖，哪些属于 SEC 管辖。
And we've we're we're really trying to hammer out these regulations with prediction markets, you know, from everything from insider trading to just legality and lobbyists of, like, exactly what they're doing and what's falling under the CFTC, what's falling under the SEC.
所以我认为预测市场将会拥有更完善的监管框架，也许纳斯达克知道一些我们不知道的信息，才选择向 SEC 而非 CFTC 申请监管。
So I think prediction markets are gonna be you know, have a much stronger framework, and maybe this is the maybe the Nasdaq's know something that we don't know about why they wanna move forward with the SEC, not the CFTC.
我得再对这件事做些更深入的调查。
I I have to do a little bit more due diligence behind this.
但为了进一步说明预测市场超级周期，它们不会消失。
But, further to throw another log in the fire about prediction market super cycle, they're not going anywhere.
这一点我可以肯定。
I'll tell you that much.
也许它们看起来会有些不同，但它们不会消失。
Maybe they'll look a little different, they're not going anywhere.
关于执法和内幕交易，Calci 刚刚发布了首例执法行动，针对一位 Mister Beast 的合作伙伴。
And to your point of of enforcement insider trading, Calci just issued its first enforcement action finding a mister beast affiliate.
是的。
Yeah.
就是那个人。
That guy.
前州长候选人因内幕交易被查处。
Former governor candidate for insider trading.
所以我不确定。
So I don't know.
对。
Yeah.
那你个人怎么看？
Well, just your take.
说说你的看法。
Toss it to you.
你可是我的超级周期专家。
You're my you're my super cycle guy.
我我没准备过。
I I I didn't I didn't prep.
我知道这个关于米斯特·普迪野兽内幕交易的故事。
I know about this story about the mister Purdy Beast Insider.
那到底是什么？
It was like what was that?
是《野兽游戏》。
The Beast Games.
他好像提前知道了一些结果。
He, like, knew certain outcomes.
他知道他们将要进行的某些挑战。
He knew certain challenges they were gonna do.
而且我觉得他下注的金额其实很低。
And just really and I think the amount he wagered was quite low.
我真希望我也能有这种机会，但我们说的是成千上万美金，而他因此被处罚了。
I wish I had that, but we're talking, like, thousands of dollars, and he got dinged for it.
所以这看起来确实不太光彩，但again，当你参与这些预测市场，而有人已经知道结果时，你就得明白你是在和内部人士博弈。
So kind of a bad look there, but again, when you're playing with these prediction markets and someone has the outcome, you have to know that you're playing with some insiders.
这其实就是我们参与这个游戏时默认接受的规则。
Like, that's just the game we're signing up for.
对吧？
Right?
除非这是一个非黑即白的事件。
Unless it's a binary event.
我的意思是，这大概都是相对的。
I mean, it's it's I guess it's all relative.
就像我们以前讨论过的，内部人士往往是那个透露真相的人。
Like, we kind of talked about this before where the insider is gonna be the tell to let people know the truth.
所以我们想知道某些事情的真相，比如MrBeast的游戏，它们并不会影响普通人的日常生活。
So we wanna know the truth on certain things like mister beast games doesn't have any outcome to the life, you know, the average everyday life of people.
但当涉及到选举或战争这类话题时，人们在预测市场上就会变得非常激动。
But when it comes to, you know, whether it's elections or, you know, the war, there's people getting riled up on that prediction market.
Calci那边发生了一些事。
Some something happened with Calci.
我并没有深入研究，因为这根本不是我想去探讨的事件——比如他们该不该获得赔付？
I didn't really dive too deep into it because it's just, you know, it's it's not a event that I wanna dive into of, like, should they be paid out or not?
我的意思是，我们谈的是战争的恐怖。
I mean, we're talking about, you know, the the horrors of war.
所以我们不会深入讨论这个。
So we're not gonna dive into that.
但什么是对的，什么是错的？
But what's what what's right and what's wrong?
比如MrBeast的游戏，如果你掌握了内部信息，你也无法从中赚钱。
Like, mister beast games, if you have some inside information on that, you can't make money on that.
但在这里，他们不会起诉那些知晓政府内部事务的人。
But then over here, like, they're not gonna prosecute people that know, you know, things inside the government.
像那些人是谁，你可能永远都不会知道。
Like, that you're probably never gonna know who those people are.
所以这感觉像是一个灰色地带。
So it feels it feels like such a gray area.
但我觉得，作为一个企业，如果我是Calci，并且拥有庞大的合作伙伴关系，我想他们与CNBC这样的官方商业频道合作了。
But I think, you know, as a business as a business, if I'm Calci and I have, you know, huge partnerships, I I think they partnered with, like, CNBC, the official, you know, betting market of a business channel.
你必须努力证明你提供的是一个公平的竞争环境。
Like, you're gonna have to try to show that you have a play fair playing field.
所以，你知道，这和任何其他事情都一样。
So, you know, it's just like anything else.
总会有一些人被抓住，受到警告或更严厉的经济处罚，取决于监管机构想怎么做，而另一些人则能逍遥法外。
There's gonna be people that are gonna be, you know, gun for and get, you know, slaps on the wrist or harder financial punishments or whatever the regulators wanna do, and then there's gonna be people that get away with it.
这和股票市场的内幕交易情况一样。
It's gonna be the same as, you know, insider trading with the stock market.
对吧？
Right?
所以我认为我们最终就会落到这个地步。
So I think that's where where we're gonna end up.
你觉得他下了多少注？
How much do you think he wagered?
我查到了。
I found it out.
我找到了。
I found it
哦，说的是MrBeast吧？就是那个叫‘野兽游戏’谁赢了之类的？
Oh, so for the mister beast, and it was like who wins beast games or something?
他是个视频剪辑师，当时正在剪辑未发布的视频，所以知道背后的情况，知道哪些挑战赛的赢家是谁。
He was a video editor, and he had he had he was editing the unreleased video edit, so he knew the what was happening behind it, who the winners were of certain challenges.
但在所有市场中，你觉得他下了多少注？
But across all the markets, how much do you think he wagered?
他是MrBeast的视频编辑。
He's a video editor for mister beast.
我觉得大概是15万美元。
I'm gonna go with, like, a 150 k.
4美元。
$4.
我那位朋友押了4美元，赢了5400美元的利润。
My guy waited $4 to win $5,400 in profit.
那也挺好的。
That would fine.
这怎么就成问题了呢？我的意思是，不是说你懂的，但为什么这会是个危险信号？
And how's that I wonder I mean, not that you know, but, like, how's that a red flag?
这也不算太离谱。
That doesn't seem like a crazy
不，没错。
Doesn't No.
我以为会是那种特别显眼的投注金额。
I I thought it would be volume that sticks out.
就像是，嘿。
It's like, hey.
对于MrBeast游戏来说，平均投注额是500到1000美元，然后有人却下了10万美元的注。
For mister beast games, the average bet is, you know, 500 to a thousand dollars and then somebody wagers, like, a 100,000.
我猜他们应该都通过了KYC审核。
I'd be they Kaushi KYCs.
所以他们很可能都完成了KYC。
So they probably KYC.
我的朋友Art Artem Coteur， probably用了他真实的KYC信息。
My guy Art Artem Coteur, probably used his real KYC.
我不知道还能怎么被发现，因为我也不清楚。
I I don't know how else you would get caught because I don't know.
我的意思是，我们可不像那样搞灰色操作，老兄。
I I mean, we're not shady like that, man.
我们只是想在加密市场赚点小钱的普通老哥。
We're just we're just good old boys trying to make a couple bucks in the crypto market.
你知道的。
You know?
你懂的，偶尔做个预测，但咱们真没内部消息。
You know, maybe a prediction here and there that's, you know, that we don't have insider info on.
但他被罚了15000美元，总共约20000美元的罚款，还被禁了两年，并被举报给了监管机构。
But, yeah, he was smacked with a $15,000 fine, pretty much total penalty of about $20,000 and banned for two years, and he got reported to regulators.
所以对于明目张胆的内幕交易来说，这简直就像挠痒痒，但Fort Marin这人，我不知道啊。
So kind of a slap on the wrist for straight up insider trading, but Fort Marin seems like I don't know.
他可能少了几根薯条，不够一整份欢乐餐。
He might be playing a few fries short of a Happy Meal.
嘿，总有人知道的。
Hey, somebody always knows.
我之前没注意到这份材料，但Polymarket的交易额创下了4.78亿美元的纪录，是的。
And I I didn't I missed this on the sheet, but you like for Polymarket had a record $478,000,000 in trading Yeah.
今天。
Today.
我当时觉得这和选举情况差不多，因为总有人知道，你知道的，总有人知道内幕，至少有六个人通过内幕交易获利约100万美元，这和冲突有关。
I was like on par with the election because somebody knew, you know, that obviously, somebody somebody always knows, and there are people at least six insider trading links profited around $1,000,000, that's related to the conflict.
所以我们不会深入探讨这一点，但这只是为人们提供更多信息。
So we won't deep dive on that, but it's just more information for the people.
再说一遍，如果你不关注博彩市场，不关注它们，你完全没必要参与或下注。
Again, if you're not into the betting markets, if you're not looking at them, you don't even have to play or wager.
这只是你能获取大量信息的地方，你知道的，它可以成为你交易和投资决策中的教育工具之一。
It's just it's where a lot of information, you know, you can gather, and it could be a part of your arsenal for education for making trades and investments.
所以我们提到这个话题，尽管这次的主题并没有那么深入。
So that that's why we bring it up even though the topic this time isn't as Yeah.
深入探讨。
Deep dive on.
但Polymarket创下了与选举日相当的纪录，这一点值得注意。
But a a record day for Polymarket on par with the election, so it's something to note.
确实如此。
Truly, truly is.
我们来快速总结几个要点，结束今天的节目。
We'll do some quick hitters to end the show here.
SUI，一些山寨币新闻。
SUI, some altcoin news.
两只SUI现货ETF在美国由Canary Capital推出。
Two spot SUI ETFs have debuted in The US with Canary Capital.
Canary Capital，你之前采访过他几次，是节目的老朋友。
Canary Capital, you've interviewed him a couple times, friends of the show.
纳斯达克和Grayscale也进行了上市，它们都将提供质押奖励。
NASDAQ and Grayscale, with the listings, and, they both are gonna offer staking rewards.
所以，再次说明，山寨币获得了更多主流市场的关注。
So, again, more exposure to the, general markets for altcoins.
继续关注这些动态会很有趣。
It'll be interesting to continue to monitor these.
显然，现在市场下跌了，你不会看到大量资金流入，但无论如何，这将被加入我们的关注清单中。
Obviously, now with the market down, you're not gonna see tons of inflows, but, nonetheless, it'll be, added to our repertoire to keep tabs on.
布赖恩，你对Sui有什么看法吗？
Any thoughts on Sui, Brian?
看起来很不错。
It seems great.
你知道的？
You know?
老朋友Canary Capital又推出了一只ETF，真棒。
Good old care Canary Capital rocking out another ETF, man.
他们简直是一波接一波地推出新产品。
It's, they're knocking them out left and right.
你知道，Sui在这个世界里有它的一席之地。
You know, they Sui has its place in this world.
我不太清楚最近它的价格走势或其他动态，但我相信我持有一小部分。
I don't know what the price action or kind of what else has been going on with it recently, but I have a small bag, I believe.
就是这样。
There you go.
我们之前讨论过的另一个有趣的话题是Chainlink，这确实很有趣。
Another fun one that we've talked about is Chainlink, and this was interesting.
这其实是我希望讨论几周的一个话题。
Again, this is something I wanted to talk about for a couple weeks.
我们来看看。
Let's see.
SEC加密货币工作组的首席法律顾问。
The chief counsel of the SEC's crypto task force.
这位人士将是泰勒·林登，他曾在Chainlink工作过一段时间。
This man is gonna be is gonna be that tie Taylor Linden, and he he worked at Chainlink for a while.
所以Chainlink送他去SEC担任加密货币工作组的首席法律顾问，而他之前是Chainlink的员工。
So Chainlink is sending him off to the SEC to be chief counsel of the crypto task force, and and he was formerly an employee at Chainlink.
他曾在Chainlink工作。
He worked on Chainlink.
所以如果你是Chainlink的人，我觉得你肯定会喜欢这个。
So if if you're a Chainlink person, you you definitely I think you like this.
对吧？
Right?
拿到一个
Getting a
Link表？
The link table?
Link海军，老兄。
The link marines, man.
我知道。
I know.
我其实只是想把Sui从我的脑海中赶走，假装它不存在，因为我只想聊聊Chainlink。
I was kinda just trying to get Sui out of my vision there and sweep it under the rug because I wanted to talk about Chainlink.
我知道。
I know.
我非常喜欢Chainlink。
I I like Chainlink a lot.
实际上，我们曾经进行过一次面对面的会议，还玩了点有趣的代币对战，Chainlink 是我的选择之一，直到Rohit狠狠地击败了我，不过，咱们改天再聊这个吧。
Actually, we had an in person meeting and we did a little fun token battles and Chainlink was one of my picks until Rohit body bagged me famously, but, you know, we'll talk about that another time.
但我真的很喜欢Chainlink。
But I I like Chainlink.
我觉得它是一个强大且优秀的产品和代币。
I I think it's a I think it's a strong product, a strong coin.
它是所有正在发生的事情的基础架构，这种关系根本无法被忽视。
It's the infrastructure infrastructure of all things going on and this relationship can't really go unnoticed.
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是，那个人在Chandler待了五年。
I mean, the guy was at Chandler for five years.
像这样的情况，除非他掌握了一些非常负面的信息，否则并不构成负面因素，但我觉得他并没有掌握什么负面信息。
Like, that that's not a negative unless he knows something that's really negative, but I I don't think that's the case.
不。
No.
我的意思是，对我来说，这意味着，嘿。
I mean, I think it it to me, it means, hey.
你可以直接联系SEC的加密货币工作组，嘿。
You have an open you have an open line to the SEC's crypto task force to, hey.
如果存在问题，你会得到及时整改。
If there is a problem, you're gonna get it tightened up.
或者如果链圈团队在寻找某些监管支持，这虽然不是保证，但你确实有内部渠道来表达你的观点。
Or if there's some, you know, regulation that maybe the chain link crew is looking for, it's, you know, not a guarantee per se, but you have an inside track to present your case.
而且，是的，五年可不是短时间。
And, yeah, five years is not a short time.
你知道，这已经很长了。
You know, that's that's that's a lot.
在一家公司工作这么久，我肯定他建立了不少人脉。
It's a lot to work at one place, so I'm sure he has some relationships.
今天在我们结束之前，最后一个话题是：比特币陷入僵局，但摩根大通和杰米·加密钻石认为，新立法可能会成为最终的催化剂。
Last one of the day before we gotta sign off here is, Bitcoin's stuck in a rut, but JPMorgan and Jamie Crypto Diamond says that new legislation could be the ultimate spark.
再次强调，大家都在关注《清晰法案》，而且随着这些大型银行持续进军加密和区块链领域，我们也会继续报道，因为这被认为是未来。
Again, that's what everybody's watching around the Clarity Act and, you know, it's in along with all these big banks, which we continue to cover and will continue to cover, keep making their moves in crypto and blockchain being the future.
感觉这次《清晰法案》事关重大。
There's a lot riding on this clarity act, it feels like.
每个人对它都有自己的看法。
Everybody has an opinion on it.
我今天看到一个观点。
I saw one today.
我们会在本周晚些时候带来这个观点。
We'll we'll bring that later in the week.
我认为是卡尔达诺的创始人对目前的法案内容不太满意。
I think it was the Cardano founder was not happy with what it looks like right now.
所以双方都觉得 stakes 很高，但与此同时，政府也觉得必须通过这项法案，以便在中期选举前在这个领域取得一些进展。
So both sides, have a lot feels like there's a lot at stake, but at the same time, the, the administration feels like they need to pass it to get some type of progress in this space before before midterms.
所以，你有什么想法吗？
So any any thoughts?
是的。
Yeah.
你能给我们一点希望吗？
A little hope you might throw on the sheet for us.
我认为今年有希望通过《Clarity法案》。
I I think we have a good possibility of Clariat getting done this year.
我知道银行和收益率之间有很多来回争论，每个人都有自己的看法。
I know there's a lot going back and forth between banks and yields, and everybody has their own opinion about it.
每个人都有自己的切身利益。
Everyone has their own vested interest.
但很高兴看到Jamie Crypto Diamond在这方面有所提及。
But it it's good to see Jamie Crypto Diamond, you know, kinda kinda mentioning it out there.
他正在新闻圈里抛出这个话题，让事情开始活跃起来。
He's throwing it out there in the news circles, getting it kinda flowing.
你知道的。
You know?
这总比他称比特币为宠物石头并完全放弃要好。
It's better than him calling Bitcoin a pet rock and completely backing off of it.
这只是一点希望，我们可以喝点杰米加密钻石的酒，点燃火焰，静观其变。
I I I it's it's just a little bit of hopey and we can drink Jamie crypto diamonds, fueling the fire, and, we'll see.
直到真正签署生效，我们才能开始庆祝。
Until it's actually inked, that's when we can start celebrating.
但许多加密公司、政府中的许多人以及许多银行都对这项清晰法案寄予厚望。
But, a lot a lot of crypto companies, a lot of people in the government, a lot of banks have have a lot riding on this clarity act.
所以我觉得这很重要。
So I think it's a big deal.
是的。
Yeah.
当我们希望它通过以带来希望和动力时，但你必须思考并理解法案中实际包含的内容。
And when we want it passed for Hopium and Momentum, but like you gotta think or and understand what's actually in the bill.
而且你知道，他们总是在不断更改和增加披露内容、各种调整和这些东西。
And I you know, they're always changing and adding disclosures and changes and this and that.
所以我们得等到它正式出台，然后仔细分析每个人的看法，因为会有很多人喜欢它。
So we gotta wait until it's built, and then we gotta really break down everybody's take on it because there's gonna be a lot of people that love it.
也会有几个人讨厌它。
There's gonna be a couple people that hate it.
还会有一些人持中立态度。
There's gonna be people in the middle.
所以，显然，这将是我们的工作，为你们逐条解析它。
And so, you know, that's gonna be our job, obviously, for you guys as we'll parse through it.
但话说回来，尽管我希望能通过，但我也不确定。
But, you know, as much as I hope it passes, I don't know.
关于这件事已经讨论和争论太多了，所以一旦通过，我们真的必须深入研究，从中学习，看看它会走向何方，因为这看起来确实将成为区块链和加密领域的一部重大立法，而传统银行如此深度参与，意味着必然会有妥协和让步。
There's been so much talk and debate about it that we really once it passes, we really gotta just dive into it and and and learn from it to see where it's going because it does feel like it's shaping up to be a huge piece of legislation for blockchain, for crypto, and to have the traditional banks so involved means that there's gonna be give and take.
是的。
Yeah.
当然，老兄。
For sure, man.
所以我觉得前方有更好的机会，但眼下我们正应对很多地缘政治问题。
So I I I think I think there's greener pastures to head for, but right now, we're we're fighting a lot of geopolitical stuff.
我们在市场上应对很多事情，可能短期内会横盘整理，但也不会太糟糕。
We're fighting a lot of things in the market, and we'll probably go sideways for a little bit, but not not not not terrible.
还不错。
It's okay.
不。
No.
这是我们一直准备好的。
Something that we've been ready for.
而且again，关键在于教育和理解我们在市场中的位置，以及如何进行长期投资或押注，因为你知道，我们确实有很多乐趣。
And again, it's the the education and and understanding where we are in the markets and and how to, you know, place your whether they're bets or investments long term because, you know, we do have a lot of fun.
我的意思是，打猴子。
I mean, punch the monkey.
再说一遍，如果你是长期听众，你应该知道，最近‘Punch the Monkey’带来了巨大的超额收益，回报达到了六倍、七倍甚至八倍。
Again, if you're a listener, longtime listener here, you you know, you got some huge alpha with punch the monkey recently getting, like, a six, seven, eight x.
你发现了这一点，而机会始终存在，你们和我们的研究，还有Hyper Liquid，都是各个市场中充满机会的代表。
And you find that, and and there's always opportunity, you know, with you guys and the research and hyper liquid, again, is another one where there's tons of opportunity in all markets.
这正是我们在这里所做的。
And that's what we do here.
我们努力为你们找到这些机会。
We try and find it for you.
再次强调，今天只是想把最新消息带给你们。
Again, just wanted to bring you the news today.
我们还有一些不错的快速收益，但很遗憾，全球正在发生的事情对市场影响巨大。
We we had some good quick hitters too, but it was you know, sadly, what's going on around the world is a huge part of the markets.
所以我们不得不对此进行讨论。
And so we had to cover it.
Brian和我这周晚些时候还会回来。
Brian and I will be back later this week.
我们会安排一个时间，不管是周四还是周五，当然，如果有必要，我们会带来全面的更新。
We'll figure out a time whether it's Thursday or Friday, and we promise to bring an update all around if there is needed, of course.
但我们也会带来一些有趣的内容。
But we'll bring some fun too.
我们会带来一些有潜力的赚钱机会，还有一些网络迷因讨论。
We'll bring some momentum moneymakers, some meme talk.
我们这周晚些时候也会深入下去，好好玩一玩。
We'll get in the trenches and have some fun later this week as well.
我们非常感谢每一位听众。
We really appreciate everybody listening.
一如既往，谢谢大家，我们这周晚些时候再聊。
Thank you all as always, and we'll talk to everybody later in the week.
好的。
Alright.
再见，各位。
Bye bye, everybody.
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