加密货币综述：金属市场崩盘..你必须了解的交易动态及美联储主席最新声明

他们可能会说，好吧，比特币从高点下跌了超过30%，相对于我们之前看过的其他许多资产，它也处于低位。

And they could say okay, well Bitcoin's down, know, over 30% from its highs, and it's down relative to a lot of the rest of the other assets that we've looked at.

所以，尽管看到了美元的现状、股市的表现以及其他因素，他们还是会认为，鉴于比特币当前的处境，它可能是最具性价比的选择。

So despite seeing where the dollar's at, and despite seeing where the stock market is at and other things, they're gonna say, hey, Bitcoin's probably the best bang for your buck style discount given its kind of current circumstance.

因此，由于比特币价格下跌，人们在某种程度上更愿意关注像比特币这样规模大且被低估的资产，而不是说‘现在股市处于历史高位，正是入市的最佳时机’，或者考虑到美元周围的种种不确定性，可能会产生一些犹豫。

And so because it's down, people are probably more willing to some degree to look at an asset that is large like Bitcoin and discounted, than maybe going and saying oh you know it looks like the perfect time for the stock market because it's at all time highs, or maybe even given all the foot around the dollar, think there's there might be some sort of hesitation.

那么，这能保证吗？

So you know is that a guarantee?

不一定，但至少从我的思维方式来看，当金属资产走弱时，资金可能会部分流向比特币和加密市场，这种转变是合理的。

Not necessarily, but I think it makes sense at least from the way that my brain works that you should at least see some sort of a shift as metals weaken and potentially give some strength into Bitcoin in the crypto market.

所以，当我们审视当前的状况时，这正是我们在《TiVo》节目中讨论过的内容。

And so when we look at where we're at right now, this is something that we've talked about on the show TiVo.

我们曾对观众坦诚地说过，

We said, hey, you know, we're honest with the viewers.

你知道，我们尽量保持最大程度的诚实。

You know, we try to stay as honest as possible.

而我们最近在这里看到的情况之一就是突破失败。

And one of the things that we've seen here recently is like the failed breakout.

这一直是我在谈论的重要话题之一，如果你是Crip Nation的成员，或者订阅了我们的通讯，或者参与了我们这边的其他活动。

And that's been one of the big things that I've been talking about if you're part of Crip Nation or, you know, newsletters or or anything else that we kinda do over here.

这一直是我感到紧张的重要事情之一，因为到目前为止你看到的是这种大幅下跌形成的看跌旗形，对吧？

That's been one of the big things that I have been just nervous about because what you've seen so far is this big move down kind of bear flag up, right?

在技术分析中，上升通道就是看跌旗形，通常是一种持续形态。

That's what a rising channel is in technical analysis is this is a bear flag, which is usually a continuation pattern.

而接下来的走势可能是，嗯，下行、震荡、然后进一步下行。

And the continuation here would be, well, downside, chop, continuation further downside.

我认为这基本上就是我们目前看到的情况。

And I think that's kind of exactly what we're seeing here.

所以关键问题是，接下来会怎样？

So the big question is, well, hey, kind of what's next?

我认为有相当充分的理由可以说明比特币可能会继续下跌一些。

And I think that there's a decent argument to be made that Bitcoin can continue to see a little bit more downside.

现在，金属市场会立即开始流入加密货币吗？

Now does the metals market immediately start flowing in the crypto?

也许不会立即发生。

Maybe not immediately.

我的想法是，我正在等待的一个关键点可能是比特币进一步下跌。

My kind of thought process here, and one of the big things that I'm waiting out for, is maybe a push lower on Bitcoin.

我认为，如果我们能跌破8万美元，就可以开始讨论比特币可能已经见底的可能性。

I think if we can push below 80 ks, then we can start talking about the potential that Bitcoin is bottomed.

我对此的看法有两个方面。

And my thoughts for that are twofold.

第一，如果我们看一下相对强弱指数——这是我非常喜欢观察和引用的指标——它还没有达到更低的水平。

Number one, if we look at the relative strength index, which I love to look at and reference, it's not quite at a lower point yet.

它实际上即将进入超卖区域。

It's actually about to enter into the oversold territory.

我希望能看到的是——当然，这只是一个理想情况，我知道我们并不生活在理想世界中——但在理想情况下，我希望看到这个相对强弱指数出现一个更高的低点，即使价格继续创新低。

What I would love to see, and again this is just a perfect world, I know we don't really live in a perfect world, but what I would love to see in a perfect world is some sort of higher low on this relative strength index, even if we get a lower point in price.

因为这种情况被称为看涨背离，即价格出现更低的低点，但相对强弱指数却出现更高的低点，这表明看涨背离正在发生。

Because what that would be called is bullish divergence, where you're getting a lower low in price but a higher low on the relative strength index that would, you know show us that there is bullish divergence happening.

因此，我密切关注的一点是：我们有可能进一步下探至七万美元区间，这完全合理且值得考虑。

And so that's one of the main things that I'm watching for is saying hey it's actually okay and very very possible and on the table for us to push a little bit lower somewhere into the 70s.

然后我认为我们可以讨论底部可能出现在这个区域附近。

And then I think we can talk about the idea of a bottom kind of somewhere down in here.

我们之前曾跌至这个水平。

We've come down into the level before.

这里曾经是我们之前的历史新高，后来转化为支撑位，我们正是从这个历史高点附近反弹的。

This used to be our prior all time highs, turned it into support where we bounced off of that previous all time high level right in here.

我认为我们有可能再次下探至此，然后进一步讨论见底的可能性。

I think it is possible that we kind of come down here, then potentially can talk about the conversation of a bottom out.

但目前这只是一个大幅跌破，形成看跌旗形，随后进一步下行。

But right now this is just a big breakdown, bear flag, followed by a you know further breakdown.

因此，我会保持一定的谨慎。

And so I would be somewhat cautious.

有人已经来问过我们了，嘿，布兰登，我该不该关注杠杆？

Know people have come and already asked us, Hey Brendan, you know, should I look at leverage?

我该不该现在把所有现金都投进去？

Should I dump all of my dry powder in right here?

首先，我不能给你财务建议。

And number one, I can't give you financial advice.

你知道，我们不是财务顾问，我们所有的免责声明和披露内容都清楚说明了这一点。

You know, we're not financial advisors, you know, all the disclaimers and disclosures that we have and go over.

但其次，我并不是这样看待这个问题的。

But secondly, you know, that's not the way that I'm looking at it.

我认为加密货币目前被严重低估了。

I think crypto is a massively undervalued where it's at.

那么，我在这里适当进行美元成本平均投资可以吗？

So am I am I okay dollar cost averaging a little bit here?

我可以。

I am.

我认为加密货币，尤其是比特币，目前被严重低估了。

I think crypto, especially Bitcoin, is massively undervalued with where it's at right now.

然而，这并不意味着它不会再下跌一点，也不意味着没有更好的买入机会。

However, that doesn't mean that it can't go down a little bit more, and it can't mean that there's better buying opportunities.

所以我正在等待图表上的一些信号、技术指标、数据和其他方面的迹象，来判断这个东西是否真的在见底，而我们目前还没完全看到这一点。

And so I'm waiting to see some of the signs on the charts and some of the signs on the technicals and the data and other things to say, hey, you know this thing's actually in the process of bottoming out, which we just haven't quite seen yet.

有很多早期迹象表明，底部可能正在接近，但至于底部是否已经确立，我们还在等待几个关键因素。

There's a lot of early indicators that could say, hey, you know a bottom looks like it's getting near and close, but as for the bottom actually being in, there's still a couple of factors that we're waiting on.

所以我不想再次对这种情况过于悲观。

And so I don't want to be too bearish on this again.

我不想带着太消极的态度来看待这件事。

I don't want to come in with too much of a negative attitude.

我确实在这里进行了一些定投，但仍然有些犹豫。

Again, am doing a little bit of DCA or dollar cost averaging down here, but I'm still a little bit hesitant.

我认为这确实是一个可能的情况，对吧？

I think it is a definite you know possibility, right?

我们有很大可能还会再下跌一点，跌到8万以下、7万区间，我会保留这种可能性，因为这仍然是有可能发生的，所以我正在关注这一点。

There's a decent chance that we push down a little bit further somewhere below 80 ks in the 70s, and I would leave that on the table saying hey that's still possible here, And so that's something that I'm looking at.

当你看整个加密货币市场时，但在把话筒还给你之前，这些大型币种的情况都差不多。

And when you look at like the rest of the crypto market to you, but before I hand it back to you, it's the same story across a lot of these large caps.

以太坊这边，价格下跌后形成了另一个看跌旗形，也就是一个三角旗形。

Ethereum over here, you have a move down followed by another bear flag via a pennant.

这是跌破走势。

This is a breakdown.

你跌破了之前的移动平均线，然后反弹回来，但在那里遭到拒绝，接着继续下行，以太坊形成了看跌旗形。

You broke beneath these prior moving averages, came back up, rejected them here, more downwards continuation, bear flag on ETH.

在Solana上，价格下跌后进入横向通道，随后进一步跌破低点。

Over on Solana, move down sideways channel, break down in the further lows.

XRP的图表略有不同，它正在跌破我们自2024年11月以来见过的最低点，不包括这个下影线。

XRP, a little bit of a different chart, it's kind of breaking to the lowest point that we've seen, know minus this wick, the lowest point that we've seen since November 2024.

BNB的情况也类似。

BNB, similar situation.

BNB已经出现过两次这种情况：下跌，形成看跌旗形，再下跌，形成更大的看跌旗形，现在开始进一步跌破。

BNB seen this twice, move down, bear flag, move down, bigger bear flag, and it's starting to break lower here.

所以你看到，在一些市值最大的加密货币中，情况都类似，只是表现方式不同——这些看跌旗形或看跌整理形态往往延续下行趋势，而既然我们正处于下行延续中，趋势显然正在向下移动。

So you're seeing kind of the same story just in different ways across some of the largest market cap cryptos where you're having these bear flags or bearish consolidations that tend to work as a continuation move, and since we are continuing from the downside, know upwards moving down, that seems to be where the trend is is moving at the moment.

有一句老话这么说：趋势是你的朋友。

And there's an old saying that hey, the trend is your friend.

虽然长期趋势明显是向上的，这一点我们并不否认。

And so while the long term trend is very clearly to the upside, right, we're not arguing with that.

我同意这一点。

I would agree with that.

长期趋势是向上的。

The long term trend is to the upside.

我更想说的是，让我们稍微放大一点视角，看看短期到中期的趋势。

I'm more saying, hey, let's you know zoom in a little bit more and say short to mid term trend.

过去大概四到五个月，比特币一直处于下跌趋势中。

We have been in a downtrend for Bitcoin for the past you know probably four or five months.

对于山寨币，我认为它们可能已经处于下行趋势大约一年了，实际上还多一点，而我正在看错图表。

For altcoins, I think you could argue that they've been in a downtrend for around a year, a little over a year actually, and I'm looking at the wrong chart.

但如果你看其他图表，也就是除了前十大币种之外的所有加密货币，主流山寨币市场，早在2024年12月就已经见顶了。

But if you look at the others chart, so saying every crypto outside the top 10, so the mainstream altcoin market, you know, this is topped out back in December 2024.

因此，当这些币种接近一些非常关键且重要的水平时，我正密切关注它们是否出现反转迹象。

And so I'm looking to really see some turnaround signs on these as we come to some very interesting and kind of important levels.

很多事情正在发生。

Lots going on.

我的意思是，这番话可真够你消化的了。

I mean, what an earful to you though.

抱歉，如果这有点

Sorry if that was a little bit of a

啰嗦了，但不是。

rant, but No.

做得太棒了。

Beautiful done.

我的意思是，今天是个大日子。

I mean, it's a big day.

直播开始了，现在有170多人在线。

The live is here, a 170 plus people right now.

感谢大家的支持。

We appreciate everybody.

伊娃·福斯特在里面说，金属市场的崩盘是预料之中的，但只是暂时的，显然是为了对冲货币超发——这一点我们经常讨论；她还提到，白银和铜在芯片、以及未来金属在微芯片、AI处理器和机器人等领域的应用中具有重要作用。

Eva Fooster's in there saying the metals crash was expected but temporary obviously for a hedge against money printing, which we talk about all the time and then saying silver copper has use for the chips and all these, the future of kind of the use of metals in these microchips and the AI processors and the robots and etc.

这个观点挺合理的。

So it is a fair take.

我的想法是，我其实要调出这个图表，布兰登。

My thing was I'm gonna pull this up actually, Brendan.

我觉得有必要让大家看一下。

I think it's important to show everybody.

我们之前提过这个，但有一阵子没说了，但看看按市值计算的总资产总额，白银跌到这个规模的市值时触及30%的水平，确实是个重大节点。

We've brought this up and I haven't brought it up in a while, but just total assets by market cap and just to see silver down and hit that 30% mark at this big of a market cap is truly a block.

这只是一个重大新闻。

It's just a block news.

我的意思是，这是突发新闻。

Mean, is breaking news.

关于这一点，如果你看到 Alphabet、谷歌、英伟达、苹果、微软、亚马逊，甚至任何一家排名前十、前二十或前五十的公司。

Of this, if you saw Alphabet, Google, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, anybody in this top 10, anybody in this top 20 even or 50.

如果任何一家公司在一天内市值下跌了30%，我的意思是，我不知道会发生什么才能导致这种情况。

If anybody lost 30% of their market cap in a day, I mean, I I don't know what would cause that.

这肯定会成为头条。

It would be on.

这简直难以置信，几乎是前所未有的。

It would be unbelievable, almost unprecedented.

我的意思是，这就像新冠疫情。

I mean, that's COVID.

就像新冠疫情期间那样的暴跌，对吧？

That's COVID like drops like that COVID week, right?

当时股票每周下跌百分之十五、二十、三十、四十%，今天白银的暴跌简直疯狂到难以置信。

Where stocks were dropping fifteen, twenty, 30%, 40% a week Like it's it's insane how much happened today in in in the drop in silver.

我之前跟你聊的时候就说，我稍微做了一点空单，没多少。

And I was kind of talking to you pregame is like, I put on, you know, a little bit of a short, nothing much.

但归根结底，这跟我们在这档节目里多次提到的观点一致，我觉得这证明了我们的判断力——当我们讨论动量赚钱效应时。

But it it it comes down to what we've what we've said on multiple times on this program, which I think is credit to us when we're going over and we're kind of talking in the momentum money makers.

当轮到加密货币圈的玩家上场时，我们早已多次在各个周期中等到过自己的时机。

And when our time comes in the crypto bros were up and we had our time plenty of times over the cycles.

对吧？

Right?

我们看到这些币种，不管是蓝筹币，还是转向动量赚钱型的模因币，那些涨到1倍、2倍、3倍、4倍、5倍、10倍的。

And we see some of these coins, whether it's a blue chip, whether it's or we go into the momentum moneymaker side and see those meme coins that hit the one, two, three, four, five, ten.

你知道，如果你赚了10倍，就会觉得这种势头会永远持续下去。

You know, if you hit a 10x and you think this is gonna go on forever.

但很少见到像你给我们展示的白银那种冰球杆式图表，这种暴涨最终都会回落。

Rarely when you see a chart that looks like a hockey stick like you showed us in the beginner with silver, the hockey stick eventually comes back down.

但这并不意味着上涨已经结束。

And it doesn't mean that the run is over.

这并不意味着白银会永远下跌。

It doesn't mean that silver is going down forever.

我认为这是一剂良药，因为之前的走势确实非常负面，对吧？

And I think that's it's a good dose because the the timeline was really negative, right?

也就是我们所关注的加密货币走势。

The crypto timeline, which was what we cover.

你从外部观察，而我前几天去好市多时，有个女士正朝我走来。

And you're kind of on the outside looking in and I I went to Costco the other day and and this lady like, you know, was walking towards.

我开着我的旧车。

I had my old car.

我正想再弄清楚一件事。

I'm trying to figure out what again.

这位女士冲进来，开始抢购所有999美元一根的银条。

This lady comes running in and just starts grabbing all the silver bars for, you know, $999 a thing.

我看着这些所有人。

And I'm looking at all these people.

他们摆出了一堆新的银条。

They put out a fresh stack of silver bars.

黄金已经卖光了，大家都在抢购银条。

Gold was already sold out, and everybody's collecting the silver bars.

上个周末我去酒吧的时候，我的优步司机告诉我，嘿，你得买点银子。

And then I was going out to the bars the other weekend, and my Uber driver's telling me, you know, hey, you gotta you gotta buy silver.

你有黄金。

You got gold.

你有银子。

You got silver.

银子。

Silver.

你得买银子。

You gotta buy silver.

我坐在那里，心想，这感觉就像比特币刚到1.2美元的时候，或者Pudgy Penguins疯狂上涨的那段日子。

And I'm sitting there, and I'm like, this feels like when Bitcoin was at $1.20, when this feels like when Pudgy Penguins was ripping.

这感觉就像贪婪又淡定的家伙。

This feels like greed and chill guy.

我点进去后心想，天啊，我们真该去开个白银的空单。

And I clicked and I was like, man, we gotta we gotta go open up a short on silver.

这种感觉就是那种狂热的兴奋。

Like, it's it's that type of euphoria.

而且这真的太有意思了，我觉得这可能是有史以来第一次，我们稍微看到了一点AI交易的苗头。

And and and it was a great I think it was just so interesting to it might have been the first time ever kind of but we saw a little bit of the AI trade.

当英镑一路飙升的时候，我也曾有过类似的感觉。

I kind of felt the same way about, like, pounds here and all that when that was flying high.

但这次有趣的是，我完全站在了这场交易的外面，就像我和你说的，我们确实持有少量仓位，占投资组合的一小部分，等等。

But it it was interesting to really be on the outside of a trade because like me and you said, yeah, we have a couple, you know, part of portfolio, small percentage, whatever.

但我并不是特别关注金属的人，所以这次我感觉自己被排除在外了。

But I'm not a huge metals guy, and so I felt left out of this.

我当时就想，天啊，我是不是该去买一些了？

And I'm like, man, did I do I need to go buy some?

然后我看到了Costco那位女士的行为，你知道的，她用包撞别人就为了抢最后一块银条，还有那个Uber司机告诉我去买银子。

And then I saw these actions of the Costco lady, you know, hitting you with her purse so she could get the last silver bar and the Uber driver telling me to buy silver.

我当时就觉得挺有意思，因为这就是加密货币在狂热上涨时，让每个人都变成专家的方式。

And I was like, interesting because this is how the this is how crypto turns everybody into an expert when we're flying high.

所以我就用这个来收尾。

And so I I wrap up with this.

我一直试着思考，你知道，你是技术分析专家，我们有研究团队，而我更像是关注社交媒体故事线的人。

I I I've been doing trying to think and you know, you're the technical analysis guy and we have our researchers and I'm more of like the social media storyline guy.

我在想，我目前对比特币的观点是什么？

And I'm trying to think of like, what's my thesis on Bitcoin right now?

因为我真的希望它能和金属一起上涨。

Because I really do wish it was rallying with the metals.

我想我们都希望如此。

I think we all do.

对吧？

Right?

但它就是没有。

And and it just hasn't.

这让我想起了谷歌和苹果，所以我才一直关注着。

And it kinda it kinda reminded me of Alphabet and Apple, that's why I'm keeping this up.

去年谷歌和苹果的情况。

So Google and Apple last year.

谷歌的Gemini出了问题，你知道的，他们的AI生成了糟糕的图片和其他问题。

Google had that Gemini mishap, right, with their AI where it was producing bad AI images and bad this.

大家都说，谷歌在AI战争中输了。

And everybody said, Google has lost the war of AI.

是的。

Yep.

OpenAI会吞掉谷歌的搜索业务。

OpenAI is gonna gobble up Google search.

他们的业务已经结束了。

Their business is done.

他们的AI很烂，股价也暴跌了30%。

Their AI is crap, and their stock cratered 30% to the t.

谷歌完蛋了。

Google's over.

结束了。

It's done.

苹果没有投资AI。

Apple doesn't invest in AI.

他们没有把AI放进手机里。

They don't have an AI to put in their phones.

他们在AI竞赛中落后的。

They're behind the AI race.

苹果完蛋了。

Apple is done.

就在整整一年前的今天，这个故事开始了。

That exactly a year ago today, that storyline started.

让我们快进到一年后。

And then let's fast forward a year.

发生了什么？

What's happened?

Vidy的股价略有下跌。

Vidy has gone down a little bit.

Palantir的股价也略有下跌。

Palantir has gone down a little bit.

以前，任何与OpenAI合作的公司都被视为焦点，被认为能赚上万亿美元。

It used to be anything that was partnered with OpenAI was the bell of the ball and gonna make trillions of dollars.

现在，如果你与OpenAI有关联，人们就会说：他们有很多承诺要履行。

Now if you're associated with a with OpenAI, they're like, well, they have a lot of commitments.

他们能兑现这些承诺吗？

Are they gonna be able to go come through on these commitments?

微软也受到了影响。

Microsoft got hit yet.

我不确定我们能不能快速调出微软的图表，同时我继续说下去，布莱恩。

I don't know if we could pull up a chart on Microsoft real quick while I keep this up, Brian.

我认为微软昨天下跌了大约10%到12%，原因就是所有与OpenAI的承诺。

I think Microsoft is down like 10% yesterday, 12% because of all the commitments with OpenAI.

所以是的。

And so Yeah.

这些故事线会发展，也会改变。

These storylines grow, these storylines change.

所以，你知道，如果你只从短期视角看待这个故事线，比如比特币没有跟贵金属一起上涨，

And so, you know, you can get poisoned if you you're so short term looking at the storyline of well, you know, it's not Bitcoin's not rallying with precious metals.

比特币也没有因为印钞而上涨，

Bitcoin's not rallying with printing money.

这个故事线就站不住脚了。

The storyline's null and void.

这正是这个故事的短期版本。

And it's like that's the short term version of the storyline.

看看微软的大幅下跌，顺便说一句，它是市值前六的公司。

Look at that gap down on Microsoft, a top six company by market cap, by the way.

我们这边怎么样，布伦南？

What do we got, Brennan?

我的意思是，从周三的高点开始，第二天就下跌了13%，之后又小幅反弹了一点。

I mean, from what the high of where it was at on Wednesday ended up going down 13% to the downside the very next day and rallied a little bit.

但你说得对。

But I mean, you're right.

很少看到这样的大幅波动。

Rare to see those kind of moves.

我读到过，好像他们45%的未完成订单都来自OpenAI。

I read that I think it was what 45% of their backlog was to OpenAI.

嗯。

Mhmm.

人们当时对这些承诺提出了质疑。

And people were questioning those commitment.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，听好了。

Mean, listen.

市场我不知道用‘善变’这个词是否准确，但就是那样，我不知道。

The market is I don't know if fickle is the right word, but, like, the I don't know.

市场就是这样，去年你说得对。

That's just the way the market is is last year, you're right.

当时人人都说谷歌完了，他们输掉了这场战争，再也没人用谷歌搜索了。

Everyone was against Google, and they lost the war, and no one's gonna use Google search anymore.

人人都会用OpenAI的聊天PT。

Everyone's gonna use OpenAI's chatty PT.

而如今，谷歌拥有世界上最好的视频AI软件，V3。

And Google now has the best videos AI software in the world, v o three.

他们拥有世界上最好的图像编辑AI软件，Nano Banana Pro。

They have the best image editing AI software, software, nano banana pro.

所以这就像只是一个故事情节。

And so it's like it's just a storyline.

我想强调给听众的一点是，如果我们回溯一下，作为听众，我们曾说过，新闻的基本面和监管的基本面，我们后面还会继续讨论更多相关内容。

Guess the one thing I'm trying to hammer home for the listeners is we try if you go back and you're a listener and we've said, hey, the fundamentals of the news and the fundamentals of the regulation, and we even have some more of that to talk about later in the show.

所有这些都存在。

It's all there.

价格走势并不支持，而有时这纯粹是由故事情节驱动的。

The price action isn't there, and that's sometimes that's just storyline driven.

我们没有站在正确的故事情节这一边，而这次金属交易显得异常狂热。

We're not on the right side of the storyline and this metals trade felt euphoric.

它几乎让人感觉风险偏好正在上升。

It felt risk on almost right.

就好像我们在担心货币贬值一样。

It's like, oh, we're worried about debasement.

我们担心这个。

We're worried about this.

我们在买入。

We're buying.

不，不是这样的。

It's like, no.

这是贪婪。

This is greed.

这种资产如此迅速地上涨，感觉有点过于贪婪了。

This feels a little greedy the way this was trading so high so fast.

但你需要一次回调来证明这一点，我认为今天我们就看到了。

And then but you needed a correction to prove that to be true, and I think we got that today.

是的。

Yeah.

不，我认为确实如此。

No, I think we did.

但听好了，这并不意味着金属价格不能继续上涨，对吧？

And listen, it doesn't mean that metals can't head higher, right?

它们需要降温吗？

Did they need the cool down?

当然需要。

Absolutely.

它们之前涨得太猛了。

They were ripping face.

所以它们会降温。

So they're gonna cool down.

我的意思是，市场回调是常有的事，加密货币尤其如此，因为我们众所周知，加密货币历来波动性极高。

I mean, market pullbacks happen and everything, and they happen to crypto as we notoriously feel because crypto is so volatile, right, historically.

但没错，我的意思是，我们会继续关注这个话题，看看会发生什么，但市场回调是正常的。

But yeah, I mean you know we'll continue to cover this, we'll see what happens, but market pullbacks happen and they're normal.

你知道，你之前在研究的一件事是，关于大量空头头寸正在积累在比特币上。

You know, one of the things that you were looking into, Tivo, here is about all the shorts that are piling up against Bitcoin.

在我们正式进入这个话题之前，先做个简短的提醒。

And quick little reminder here before we actually get into this.

我们看到了你们的很多问题。

Again, we see a lot of your questions.

我们没有忽略你们。

We're not ignoring you.

我保证。

I promise.

我们会先完成这期节目，然后再回过头来回答一些问题，也许最后会做个简短的问答环节。

We're gonna get through the show first, and then we'll come through and answer some of these questions and maybe do a little q and a at the end.

所以，我们再次看到你们的问题。

So again, we see your questions.

我们看到每个人在实时评论，之后会回头回应这些评论。

We see everyone commenting live, and we will wrap back around to those.

同时，如果你们喜欢我们所说的内容，别忘了点击订阅按钮和点赞按钮，我们就会

In the meantime, if you could, and if you like what we have to say, you know, hey, hit the subscribe button, hit the like button, and we'll

是的

Yeah.

我们会虚构一个说法，说如果你订阅了就会获得优先权。

We'll make an imaginary statement that says it gives you priority if you subscribe.

我无法证实这一点，但我只是提一下，然后我们就当它是真的。

I can't back it up, but I'm just gonna throw that out there and and we're gonna act like it's true.

是的

Yeah.

我们非常感谢大家在周五还来参加。

We appreciate everybody being here on a Friday.

非常感谢你们的加入。

Thank you so much for joining us.

但我做了一点研究。

But I did I did a little research.

特别感谢Rohit，当我们想要深入某些信息和研究时，他通常是我们的首选人。

Shout out to Rohit, kind of our go to guy when we're trying to dive into some of the you know, the information, the research.

他当时在帮我，我看到一些推文说，比特币的空头仓位明显超过了多头仓位，这从价格走势上就能看出来。

He was helping me kinda I saw some tweets about how the you know, the Bitcoin shorts were kind of outpacing the longs clearly with the price action.

我只是想确认一下，以便给大家提供准确的信息。

I just wanted to make sure and verify it so we could give everybody information.

所以今天早上我和Rohit一起看了这个数据，正如你在这张图表上看到的，绿色部分代表空头清算杠杆。

So Rohit and I got together this morning and we're looking at this and basically as you could see on this chart, the green here is the short liquidation leverage.

红色部分代表多头清算杠杆，你看这两条线，它们完全不同。

The red here is the long liquidation leverage And I mean, just as you could see the lines here and here, it's completely different.

我们大致算出来是2比1的比例，可能略低一点，但每有一个多头，就有两个空头，可能还略少一点，但这清楚地展示了我们当前的位置。

So we basically got it to about a two to one ratio, maybe a little less, but for every one long, there's two shorts, maybe a little less than that, but it just kind of shows you where we are.

而且，价格走势一直偏负面。

And again, the price action has been negative.

我们正在缓慢下行。

We're grinding a little bit lower.

看起来空头在不断加码，但这里有一个清算区间。

Seems in the shorts are piling and piling on, but then there's a liquidation range.

所以如果价格继续下跌，空头必须持续压低价格，因为一旦价格回升到大约92到94的区域，就会触发空头平仓，市场买盘随之涌入，这将成为推动价格反弹回90到100区间的关键催化剂。

And so if this again the price the shorts are in the Bears are going to have to keep grinding this lower because if it does break back up to I think like 92, 94 area like that's the the match lights and then the shorts liquidate and it turns to market buys and like the kind of the catalyst is there for the springboard back towards that 90 to 100 level.

我们没有水晶球。

And we don't have a crystal ball.

我们总是这么说，因为没人能预知未来，但我们经常强调：不要和所有人站在同一艘船上。

We say that all the time because nobody does, but it's it's that we say this a lot like you don't want to be on the same side of the boat as everybody else.

所有人都在押注白银。

Everybody was just on the silver boat.

我告诉你，那艘船持续单边走势大约几周，而你今天看到了，出现了30%的暴跌。

I'll tell you that that boat was one-sided for about a couple weeks and you saw what happened today with a 30% correction.

我希望你是在更低的位置进场的，而不是在过去一周才买入，因为如果你和大家站在同一边，那你可就被狠狠地收割了。

I hope you got in a lot lower and you weren't buying within the last week because you got absolutely dunked on if you're on the same side of the boat.

所以我认为目前空头还没到过重的程度，但再次强调，两比一的比例已经越来越接近了。

And so I don't think the boat's too heavy with the shorts yet, but again at two to one, it's getting that way.

至少从这个清算图来看，大多数仓位都集中在空头一方。

The majority is in at least in this liquidation map is on the short side.

所以这是需要关注的，可能成为上涨的催化剂。

So it's something to watch could be a catalyst higher.

然后这个，我觉得在所有恐慌中特别有趣。

And then this one, I thought was really interesting with all the panic.

拉胡尔·保罗发了这条推文，说我们表现落后了。

Rahul Paul kind of tweeted this out is we're underperforming.

我们和所有人差距太远了。

We're so far away from everybody else.

这是纳斯达克100指数与比特币的相对表现。

Here's the relative of the NASDAQ 100 compared to Bitcoin.

是的，我们下跌了。

And it's yeah, we're down.

我们以前在2020年左右也跌过，看看上次下跌后是如何反弹的，2023年我们再次下跌，然后又反弹了。

We've been down before around 2020 here and then it look at this last time we were down and shoots back up and then 2023 we're down shoots back up.

图表看起来相当相关。

Charts seem to seem decently correlated.

比特币的波动性更大，这一点我们都知道，而且我们喜欢，因为在我们的理念中，波动性带来了机会。

It just Bitcoin has more volatility, which is what you know, we know and we like because in our in our book, volatility brings the opportunity.

所以我不确定，作为我们这里的交易员和技术分析专家，布伦南，你对这些话题有什么看法？

So I didn't know, you know, as our as our resident trader and technical analysis person, any thoughts on on these topics, Brennan?

我的意思是，这些观点确实有很多道理。

I mean, I think there's there's a lot of truth to them.

空头正在不断累积。

The shorts are piling up.

他们变得越来越安心了。

They're getting more comfortable.

在牛市中，你也能看到类似的情况。

And you see the same kind of thing in the bull market.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，不妨反过来想一想：在牛市中，他们变得过于自信，过度持仓，过度杠杆。

I mean, let's flip this idea on its head and say, hey, in a bull market, they get overconfident, they get overextended, they get over leveraged.

我们看到了这类情况累积时的后果，比如在十月以及其他所有历史高点时期。

And we saw the effects of what happened, like, when stuff like that piles up, you know, back in October and at other points as well at all time highs.

当空头变得过于自信、过度持仓和过度杠杆时，完全可能发生同样的事情。

Well, the exact same thing can happen when shorts get overconfident, and shorts get overextended, and shorts get over leveraged.

你可以看到这些与十月十日以及当时发生的清算事件呈反向相关的逆向事件。

You can see these inverse events that are there inversely related to something like October 10 and the liquidations that we saw there.

空头完全可能被全部清算，从而引发大规模的空头挤压，推动价格上行。

You can just as easily have all the shorts get liquidated and cause a massive short squeeze, which sends price to the upside.

事实上，这种情况经常发生，空头确实会被狠狠收割，价格也会出现暴涨。

In fact, oftentimes that happens, and the shorts do get racked, and you do see price explosion.

所以，请记住，每个人总是喜欢从一个角度去思考，却忽视了另一面，但事实并非如此。

So, you know, just keep in mind here that, you know, everyone always likes to think about it from, you know, one end and and neglect the other, but it's like, no.

这里的空方可能正变得过于安逸。

The the bears here are probably getting close to being too comfortable.

当他们变得过于安逸、过度持仓和过度杠杆时，通常就是大清算来临的时候，他们会遭到彻底洗牌。

And when they get too comfortable and too overextended and too overleveraged, that's usually when the big day of reckoning happens and you get them wiped out.

然后他们被迫平仓、买入以及其他操作。

And then they're forced to cover their positions and buy and other things.

所以我认为这一点值得留意。

And so I think that's that's worth watching.

你捕捉到这一点真是太好了。

And it's a really good catch by you.

谈到这张图表，人们经常讨论比特币与纳斯达克指数等相关内容。

When it comes to this chart, you know, there's there's lots of conversations about Bitcoin compared to Nasdaq and stuff.

我总是被问到，为什么它们没有相关性？或者是否应该更具相关性？

And I always get asked, you know, why isn't it correlated or should it be more correlated?

最近，我可以说在过去的几周、几个月，甚至过去一两年里，你已经开始看到比特币与纳斯达克指数脱钩。

In recent I would say in recent weeks, in recent months, even the last year or two, you've started to see Bitcoin decouple from Nasdaq.

作为一种资产类别，比特币和加密货币都已趋于成熟，你开始看到它们缓慢地脱钩。

It is matured as an asset class and crypto has as well, and you've started to see it decouple slowly.

因此，在市场的一些阶段，我认为它仍会跟随走势。

So there are points in the market where I think it it will follow.

对吧？

Right?

有些时候它不会。

There's points where it won't.

但谁会说，总体来看，不与纳斯达克完全一对一相关反而更好呢？这种不相关让人觉得奇怪又可怕，但确实会有一些时候它们又会同步。

But who would even say that overall, it's probably good to not have this, like, one to one correlated to Nasdaq that make it kind of strange and scary, but there's gonna be points and times where it is.

但我只是注意到了这一点，你从这张图表里也能看出来。

But that's just something that I've noticed, and you can kinda see it in this chart here.

我认为，再次强调，这有点像在追赶。

I do think that, again, there's there's a bit of a game of catch up.

如果你看看比特币为何暴跌、为何如此低迷，以及发生的一些其他事情，原因有几个，这是来自YouTube聊天室一位观众的问题。

If you look at why Bitcoin has crashed and why it's so low and some of these other things that are happening, there's a couple of reasons, and this was a chat box question from someone in the YouTube chat.

所以感谢你。

So shout out to you.

但我认为这归结为几个因素。

But I think it comes down to a couple of things.

第一，十月事件的持续影响。

Number one, the lingering effects of the October.

在我看来，这是最大的催化剂。

That has been the biggest catalyst in my opinion.

这是有史以来最大的单日清算事件。

It's the largest single day liquidation event ever.

它比我们看到的Terra Luna、FTX和Alameda的总和还要大。

It's bigger than what we saw with Terra Luna and FTX and Alameda combined.

这些大型事件，你知道，我认为甚至比新冠疫情的总和还要大。

Like, all these big events, you know, I think even bigger than COVID combined in there as well.

而且，马特，我觉得是所有这些因素的数倍之多。

And it was just like, Matt, I think it was all those combined several fold.

我的天，单日清算的资金量多得离谱，接近200亿美元。

I mean, was ridiculous how much money was liquidated, close to $20,000,000,000 in a single day.

所以，认为我们能在一周、一个月甚至几个月内就忽略这件事，简直太荒谬了。

And so it's silly to think that we would brush that off in a week, a month, multiple months.

起初，我们以为能轻松度过，但随后持续的影响和连锁反应逐渐显现。

At first, it looked like we were gonna shrug it off, and then the lingering effects and the ripple effects kinda came through.

现在看来，我们仍然在感受着那场事件的影响。

And now it's like, hey, you know, we're still feeling the effects of that.

很多做多的人，绝大多数被清算了。

And a lot of the people, most of the people who were long, they were the ones wiped out.

所以，要让那些想重新做多的人重新聚集起来，还需要一点时间。

And so it's gonna take a little bit of time to collect those people who wanna go long again.

他们已经被清算掉了。

I mean, they were they were liquidated.

他们被彻底扫出局了。

They were wiped out.

他们需要一些时间才能把钱赚回来，并且重新有足够的信心回到同样的仓位，因为之前他们过度杠杆了。

It's gonna take them a little bit of time to get that money back, and they get comfortable enough to go back into that same kind of position because, again, they were overextended.

我认为这里另外一些因素包括，显然，金属市场也在持续吸走流动性。

I think the other things that you have here are, you know, the obviously, the metals market, which has been sucking liquidity away as well.

然后当你看看其他外部因素时，克拉里蒂法案正在被推迟。

And then when you look at other kind of external factors, there is the Clarity Act getting pushed.

对吧？

Right?

大家都以为这会通过的。

You know, everyone thought that was gonna go through.

这可能会被推迟。

That might be getting pushed.

你知道，华盛顿那边有一些正在投票的事项，也引发了一些恐慌情绪。

You know, there's some stuff that's getting voted on in DC that seems to have a little bit of FUD around it as well.

所以这些小事情叠加起来，就是有一点点恐慌情绪。

And so there's all these little things where it's like there's just a little bit of FUD.

因此，当你问自己这个问题，或者问我们这个问题时，嘿。

And so when you ask yourself the question or when you ask us the question, hey.

为什么加密市场下跌了？

Why is the crypto market down?

这些因素都有影响。

It's a mixture of those.

此外，最近一夜之间，推动市场下跌的似乎是有关强化美元的讨论。

And then on top of it recently, it looks like the thing overnight that kind of pushed the markets down were talks about strengthening the dollar.

而且，你知道，这似乎是主要的原因。

And, they you know, that seemed to have been the big one.

对吧？

Right?

那就是我看到的主要原因。

That that was the big reason that I saw.

就是说，我们要在DXY中强化美元。

Was like, oh, we're gonna strengthen the dollar in the DXY.

历史上，这对比特币价格来说一直不是好事。

And historically, that has been a bad thing for Bitcoin's price.

但只是有人对此做了几条评论。

But there's just, a few comments made about that.

但前几天，还有相反的说法，说我们要削弱美元。

But a couple days prior, there was opposite conversation saying, hey, we're gonna weaken the dollar.

所以你看，这纯粹是政治操作。

So it's like, listen, that's just politics.

所以你总会遇到两种情况。

So you're gonna get it both ways.

我们这里通常不会讨论任何一方的政治立场。

We don't really talk about one political side or the other over here.

你知道，我们尽量避开政治，因为这并不是我们的风格，也不是我们想做的事。

You know, we try to stay out of the politics because that's just not our spiel and it's not what we like to do.

但事实是，你知道，总会有些有趣的事情发生。

But the truth of the matter is, you know, listen, there's always gonna be fun.

总会来回反复，这就是事情的常态。

There's always gonna be back and forth, and that's just the way that it goes.

嗯，这里给了个绕圈子的回答，Tivo。

You know, a little bit of a roundabout answer here, Tivo.

我觉得这一切在某种程度上是相互关联的，这就是我看待市场的方式。

I thought it all kinda connected in some way, and that's how I'm viewing the markets.

市场确实非常波动。

Well, the markets are quite volatile.

既然我们谈到这个话题，Craig问了一个问题：黄金的波动性如何影响比特币价格？

Question just kind of while we're on the topic from Craig here is gold volatility and how does it influence Bitcoin prices?

传统上，如果从更长的时间周期来看图表——至少我看到的是这样——黄金上涨之后，比特币往往会跟上。

Well, traditionally gold, if zoom out on the charts, at least the one that I've seen, it's gold kind of runs up and then Bitcoin follows.

从长期来看，这种情况是有可能发生的。

Again, in a long term vision that could happen.

我是在X上找到这个图表的。

I pulled this one off of X.

这是来自talos.com的，为了给Craig一个快速的回答。

This is from, let's see here, talos.com just for a quick answer to Craig.

我们没时间核实这个数据，但只是想表达对今天所有在线观众的尊重和感谢，这是一张比特币相对活动的图表。

We didn't have time to verify this, but just you know want to be respectful and thankful for everybody in the live today is kind of just a Bitcoin relative activity chart here.

布伦丹，你可能比我更清楚这一点，但比特币和黄金相比。

Brendan, you can explain this maybe better than than I can, but Bitcoin compared to gold.

显然，比特币正处于回调中，但你知道，也许就在附近，嗯，我们没有在图表上标出线条，也没有使用你们软件里通常的那些指标。

Obviously, Bitcoin's in a drawdown, but you know, maybe right around, you know, again, we don't have the lines on the chart and and our our metrics that we usually do inside your software.

但看起来我们似乎正处在支撑线附近，这在我脑海中是说得通的。

But like looks like we're kind of around a support line and that that kind of makes sense in my mind.

至少从目前的叙事来看，贵金属正在回调，而我刚刚在手机上收到警报——就在我们直播时，我看到白银下跌了33%。

Least the way the storyline is unfolding right now with with a pullback in precious metals and I just saw I'm getting alerts on my phone literally as we're live here and this is little producer magic is I'm seeing 33% down for silver.

白银跌幅达到了33%，这与它历史上最糟糕的一天并列。

It hit the 33% down mark which ties for its worst day in history.

所以如果你上周买了白银，那你现在正经历着白银历史上最惨重的33%回撤，而卖给你的人，居然是个优步司机，还说这是避险资产。

So if you bought silver in the last week, you're caught in a 33% drawdown in the worst drawdown in Silver's history and you were sold by the Uber driver that it was a safe haven.

所以现在发生的事情太多了。

So there's just there's a lot going on.

市场波动非常剧烈，而我们说的‘放宽视野’，就是这个意思吧？

There's a lot of volatility going on and again this is our our our our saying of zoom out right?

嘿，跳出来看，我关于这个故事线的 rant 是，现在有不同的情节在升温，尽管很难在 sidelines 看着价格下跌，经历十月的清算——加密史上最大的清算。

Hey zoom out and kind of my rant on the storyline is there's different storylines that picked up steam and as hard as it was to be on the sideline and have kind of declining price and go through the October liquidation, biggest liquidation in crypto history.

现在我们正目睹白银史上最大的清算。

Now we're seeing the biggest liquidation in silver history.

目前波动性很高。

Volatility is high right now.

事情就是这样的。

It's just it's just the way it is.

我认为，我们的机会终会再次到来。

And I I think, know, our our time will come again.

我们正在从自己的周期起伏中吸取教训。

And and we're learning lessons from our times of our own, you know, cycles where we've had highs and lows.

现在，即使我置身事外，也在观察贵金属交易，从中学习新的经验。

And now I'm even learning lessons being on the sideline and watching the, you know, the precious metals trade.

但我想把话题转向一些看涨的基本面。

But I wanna transition us into some, again, some bullish fundamentals.

我们来谈谈，抱歉。

We'll go we'll go over I'm to sorry.

你有什么想说的吗？

Did you wanna did you wanna say something?

黄金图表。

The gold chart.

是的。

Yeah.

我们快速看一下黄金图表，

Let's go to the gold chart real fast that

你刚才调出来的那个。

you pulled up a second ago.

黄金和比特币。

Gold BTC.

因为有人问起这个，它显示的是：嘿。

Because someone was asking about this and like what it shows is it's saying, hey.

比特币的价格相对于黄金价格是如何衡量的？

How does Bitcoin's price measure relative to gold's price?

它在这里显示了一个比率。

And it puts a ratio here.

通常我们会说，好吧，比特币的价格先除以美元的价格是多少？

Because usually we say, okay, well, what is the price of Bitcoin first divided by the price of the US dollar?

显然，美元始终会是1。

Now obviously, the US dollar is always gonna be one.

所以它总是像将1美元除以什么，或者放在比特币价格的下方。

So it's always like whatever the 1 US dollar is divided by, or underneath the price of Bitcoin up here.

这表示，好吧。

This is saying, okay.

如果我们不是用比特币除以美元，而是用比特币除以黄金的价格呢？

Well, instead of what if we divide Bitcoin by the dollar, what if we divide Bitcoin by the price of gold?

这个比率就是代表这个意思。

And that's what this ratio represents.

它在说明如何衡量一个比特币相对于一盎司黄金的价值。

It's saying how do we measure how much 1 Bitcoin is worth compared to an ounce of gold?

因此，这个图表所代表的就是这一点。

And so that's what this chart represents.

它可以显示我们，看，这些峰值和谷底表明，在某些时候，这两种资产相对于彼此可能被高估或低估，具体取决于你从哪一边来看。

And it can show us that, hey, there's these peaks and valleys where at times, these two assets can be relatively overvalued compared to one another or maybe undervalued depending on which side you're looking at.

因此，这个比率向我们展示的是，我们正回到一个历史低点区域，你知道，这是自2023年市场触底以来，比特币相对于黄金估值的最低水平。

And so what this ratio is showing us is like, hey, we're getting back to a historic low area where, you know, this is the lowest price that Bitcoin has been valued compared to gold since I believe 2023, you know, shortly after the market bottomed and stuff.

它在说，如果你把比特币和黄金比较，这可能是比特币被严重低估的时期之一。

And it's saying, know, hey, if you compare Bitcoin to gold, you know, this is probably you know one of the more undervalued areas.

因此，再次强调，我认为这支持了这样一个观点：黄金持有者最有可能在哪里获利了结。

And so again, I think it kind of feeds into this idea of where are the gold people most likely to take profits from.

我认为，他们最有可能将资金从黄金转向比特币，进行这种转换，而这与这张图表完全吻合。

Well, think it makes sense that they're most likely to take profits from gold into Bitcoin and transition those, And this kind of works hand in hand with this very chart.

那么，是谁之前问到这个问题的？

So and we had who was asking about this?

克雷格。

Craig.

我想是克雷格。

I think it was Craig.

克雷格。

Craig.

可能还有其他人也问了这个问题。

Maybe a few others were asking about this.

我

I

传奇人物克雷格。

Legend Craig.

正如我们所说，是的。

And as as we Yes.

谢谢克雷格提出这个问题。

So thank you Craig for the question.

然后，当我们继续回到加密货币的话题时，至少对于加密货币来说。

And then as we as we continue on back to kind of, hey, at least for crypto.

是的。

Yeah.

价格走势并不是我们希望的那样，但看涨的基本面依然持续。

The price action isn't where we want it, but the bullish fundamentals continue.

所以我提到贝莱德。

So I bring up BlackRock.

这些是贝莱德人力资源部门正在招聘的一些职位。

These are some hiring, some jobs that the BlackRock HR department is looking to fill.

我认为最有趣的是副总裁兼总监这个职位，但具体是做什么的呢？

And I think the most interesting part of it is vice president director, but what's the job?

数字资产产品策略师，旧金山；董事总经理，纽约；数字资产产品策略师，波士顿；数字资产产品策略师，纽约。

Digital assets product strategist where San Francisco, managing directors, New York, digital assets, product strategist, Boston, digital ad is product strategist, New York.

这意味著什么？

What does that mean?

这些产品策略师正在设计和开发产品。

These product strategists, they're designing, they're building products.

而且，无论他们是推出新产品，还是将现有产品打包整合，所有这些都围绕着数字资产展开。

And again, whether they're gonna launch new products, bundle together existing products, it's all based around digital assets.

所有这些产品都将提供给理财顾问，他们会坐下来与你的祖父母、父母、你自己交谈，说：‘我们是贝莱德。’

And all these products are gonna be given to the financial advisors who are gonna go sit down with your grandmother, your grandfather, your father, your mother, yourself to say, hey, we're BlackRock.

十年前，比特币是不好的。

Yes, decade ago, Bitcoin was bad.

现在它变好了。

Now it's good.

我们有贝莱德的比特币ETF。

We've got the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF.

我们有贝莱德的以太坊ETF。

We've got the Ethereum BlackRock ETF.

我们聘请了这么多新的数字资产产品策略师，因为未来就在这里，而你的资金也必须流向这里。

We have all these new digital assets product strategists because that's where the future is and that's where we need your money to go.

因此，招聘并创建这些职位、在未来一到五年内开发这些产品，是他们正在投入数十亿美元进行的工作，而且这些工作不会明天就消失。

And so this is kind of the groundwork of hiring, creating these roles and building these products over the next, you know, one, two, five years that it's it's something that they're spending, you know, I don't know hundreds of millions of dollars on creating and it's not going to go away tomorrow.

即使价格出现小幅波动或小幅回调，这些也不会消失。

It's not gonna go away with a little bit of a price action with a little bit of a correction.

恰恰相反，他们正在大量收购这些资产，并开发这些产品，然后再卖回给你。

If anything, they're gobbling up these assets and building these products to then sell it back to you.

这就是运作方式。

That's how it works.

所以，朋友们，跟着大钱走。

So follow the big money here, folks.

我认为看到这类岗位的增长是一个非常令人兴奋的进展，而且这种增长不仅仅发生在一两个地方。

I think this is a really exciting kind of update to see these type of jobs growing and not only in one place either.

显然，旧金山非常合理，但我认为波士顿也很有意思。

Obviously, San Francisco makes a ton of sense, but I thought Boston was cool.

波士顿，当然还有纽约，但你知道，BlackRock 的业务正在开始向更多地方扩展。

Boston, obviously, York, but, you know, we're it's starting to branch out for BlackRock here.

请记住，他们是一家管理着14万亿美元资产的公司。

And keep in mind, they are a 14,000,000,000,014 trillion dollar asset manager.

他们是地球上最大的资产管理公司。

They're the largest asset manager on the face of this earth.

他们管理的资产总额比大多数国家的经济总量还要高。

The amount of assets that they have under management is more than most countries are worth.

我的意思是，这太疯狂了。

I mean, it's crazy.

他们管理的总资产规模是整个加密货币市场的数倍之多。

Their total assets under management is bigger than the entire crypto market several times over.

所以他们规模巨大。

So they are huge.

我这么说是因为他们为整个金融界树立了标准。

And I say this because they set the standard for what the rest of the financial world does.

因为他们是最大的，体量如此庞大，所以他们定下了行业标准。

Because they are the largest, they are so big, they set the standard.

他们的竞争对手已经在做同样的事情了。

And their competitors are already doing the same.

对吧？

Right?

你看看其他那些大型资产管理公司、银行以及其他类似机构，他们都在做同样的事。

You look at a lot of the other big asset managers and banks out there and other people that are in the same boat, they're all doing the same thing.

他们都在试图参与其中。

They're trying to get in on the action.

所以，是的，最好的还在后头，Tivo。

And so, yeah, the best is yet to come, Tivo.

他们不认为这会有什么发展。

They don't believe this is going anywhere.

我们也不认为这会有什么发展。

We don't believe this is going anywhere.

我们还有什么别的吗？

What else we got?

好了，我们还有两个快速话题，今天现场气氛真的太棒了。

Well, we got two more quick hitters here and just an absolutely electric live today.

我们真的很感激。

We really do appreciate it.

最后在右下角还有一个请求。

One final ask at the bottom right.

如果你是新来的，请点击标志并订阅我们。

If you're new here, hit the logo, give us a subscribe.

我们每周都会多次直播，今天和你们一起玩得非常开心，希望你们能再来。

We do this multiple times a week and we're having so much fun with you today that we hope you'll come back.

点个赞。

Give us a like.

点击点赞按钮。

Hit the like button.

这真的能让我们知道我们做得不错，继续为大家带来这种有趣又免费的内容，因为我们很喜欢和你们一起做这些。

It just really shows us that we're doing a good job and keep delivering this fun free content with you guys because we love doing it with you.

两个快速要点，然后我们来回答一些问题。

Two quick hitters and then we're gonna do some questions.

所以如果聊天区的任何人有问题，请把问题提交到问答框里。

So if anybody has a question out there in the chat, start throwing it in the question box.

我们将在接下来的几分钟内解答。

We're gonna get to it in the next couple minutes.

我们会尽量回答更多问题，因为我们非常感谢你们在周五下午还在这里。

We're gonna answer as many as we can because we really appreciate you guys being here on a Friday afternoon.

赶紧在那边提交一些问题吧。

So throw some questions in there.

但首先，富达公司：华尔街继续选择以太坊，因为富达宣布将在以太坊上推出美元支持的稳定币。

But first Fidelity Fidelity, Wall Street continues to choose Ethereum as Fidelity announces a USD back stable coin on Ethereum.

有趣的是，以太坊的故事线就像整个加密市场一样。

Interesting again, the Ethereum storyline is just like the rest of crypto.

最近似乎利好消息不断。

It seems recently just nonstop bullish news.

价格走势并未跟上，但富达——最新管理资产达5200亿美元的机构——选择以太坊作为其稳定币的底层平台。

The price action is not following, but Fidelity, the latest $5,200,000,000,000 in assets under management chooses Ethereum for its back stablecoin.

这些稳定币产品正以很快的速度不断涌现。

And these stablecoin products are really starting to pop up at a fast rate.

确实如此。

They are.

你知道的。

You know?

我认为，再次强调我之前的观点，我们并没有看到这些趋势放缓的迹象。

And I think, again, I kinda goes into my last point, but we're not seeing these things slow down.

我认为我们只会看到它们加速发展。

I think we're only gonna see them accelerate.

我认为我们会继续看到更多这样的产品。

I think we're gonna continue to see more of them.

我们刚才提到的正是贝莱德。

BlackRock is who we were just talking about.

我们现在谈论的是富达选择以太坊，并构建和推出自己的美元支持稳定币。

Now we're talking about Fidelity and them choosing Ethereum and building and launching their own USD backed stablecoin in this stuff.

你猜怎么着？

And guess what?

人们看空。

People are bearish.

人们看空，他们说，也许我们不应该参与其中。

People are bearish, and they're saying, you know, maybe we shouldn't get exposure.

也许我们应该抛售这些东西。

Maybe we should sell this stuff off.

我们之前也讨论过短期内发生的某些看空情况。

Again we talked about some of the bearish stuff that's happening in the short term.

我再怎么强调这一点都不为过。

I cannot emphasize and reiterate this point enough.

当你放眼长期愿景时，这些公司、这些资产管理机构、这些银行，它们并不是为短期而建设，而是为长期而布局。

When you look at the long term vision, these companies, these asset managers, these banks, they are not building for the short term, they're building for the long term.

所以，我现在看待加密市场的视角就是：它会不会再跌一点？

And so that's the kind of the lens that I look at the crypto market right now is saying, hey, could it go a little bit lower?

我应该现在就把所有现金全部投入吗？

Do I wanna put all my dry powder in right here?

也许不该。

Maybe not.

这看起来有点风险。

It seems a little risky.

然而，我想在低位逐步建立一些仓位，因为我相信长期前景。

However, I wanna be getting some form of exposure down in here because I do believe in the long term.

如果我像富达和贝莱德那样相信这一点，那么当我们从高点下跌40%时，可以说它可能正处于折价状态。

And if I believe in this, like Fidelity and BlackRock do, then I think it's safe to say that it's, you know, potentially at a discount when we're down 40% from the highs.

我只是想说，用摩根大通、贝莱德和富达同样的视角来看待这个问题，他们视之为长期投资，而我也同样把比特币和以太坊视为长期投资。

You know, I I would just say, hey, like, look at this through the through the same lens that JPMorgan and BlackRock and Fidelity are, And they view this as a long term play, which is what I would view Bitcoin and Ethereum as as well.

哦，我完全同意。

Oh, couldn't couldn't agree more.

说得再好不过了。

Couldn't have said it better myself.

最后，来点轻松的。

And to wrap up, just some fun.

我的意思是，我们一直在讨论基本面看涨，但价格走势却并非如此，布伦丹。

I mean, we've been talking about how the fundamentals are bullish, but the price action has not been, Brendan.

已经有很多人，从马特·霍根到汤姆·李本人都说，我们其实正处于熊市，并且正在走出熊市。

And there's been numerous people, everyone from Matt Hogan down to Tom Lee himself and said, hey, we're actually in a bear market and we're coming out of the bear market.

这曾是进入年底和2026年的主流观点。

That was the kind of the storyline going into the end of the year and into 2026.

我当时就想，我不确定。

And I was like, I don't know.

我们真的处于熊市吗？

Are we in a bear market?

价格上或许有这种感觉，但六个月前根本没人谈论熊市，你知道的。

It feels like price at maybe, but like nobody was talking about the bear market, you know, six months ago.

我最终认输了。

And I finally capitulate.

我想，你知道吗？

I I was like, you know what?

我们确实处于熊市，因为汤姆·李在坐公交车。

We are in a bear market because Tom Lee's riding the bus.

这是一场闹剧。

It's a work.

我看到了这张照片。

I saw this picture.

汤姆·李真是很有幽默感啊。

Just Tom Lee's got a great sense of humor, man.

因为他刚说，大雪导致火车停运，所以今天早上的通勤只能坐公交车。

Because he just said snow knocked out the train, so morning commute today is by bus.

我当时就想，如果汤姆·李都在坐公交车，那我们可能真的……比如加密贝果什么的，都完了。

And I was just like, man, if Tom Lee's riding the bus, I think that might be we might we did, like, Crypto Bagel and stuff.

我们可能需要把汤姆·李坐公交车这件事标在我们的以太坊图表上，这可能会成为我们的一个局部底部信号。

We might need to put Tom Lee riding the bus, on on our Ethereum chart, and, and that that might that might tick like a local bottom for us.

提到汤姆·李

Saying Tom Lee

李坐公交车。

Lee rides the bus.

汤姆·李坐公交车这件事几乎已经出现在我的以太坊图表上了。

Tom Lee riding the bus is almost on my Ethereum chart.

事实上，我正在实时处理这件事。

In fact, I'm working on it as we speak.

汤姆·李坐公交车。

Tom Lee rides the bus.

砰。

Boom.

搞定。

It's done.

它已经稳固下来了。

It's solidified in place.

我们现在知道了。

We now know.

我年轻时在IBM工作，曾在联合市住过一年。

So I I lived in Union City for a year, in my younger days when I worked at IBM.

人们都忘了以前的IBM员工。

People forget former IBMer here.

世界上最早的一批市场人工智能之一就是沃森。

For one of the first two market AIs in the world was Watson.

我在沃森社区担任领导，早在人们热炒人工智能之前，就已将AI推向世界。

I was a leader, in the Watson community bringing AI to the world before people were hyped up about it.

我坐公交车上班。

I took the bus to work.

我当时是个年轻的专业人士。

I was a young professional.