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好了，各位。
Alright, everybody.
欢迎回到特别版的《周五盘点》，大家期待已久的这一期终于来了。
Welcome back to a special edition of Friday rundown, the one you've all been waiting for.
你们可以看到，图表已经显示在屏幕上了，因为我们今天请来了两位图表专家。
As you can see, the charts are already on the screen, and that's because we have two of our chart masters with you.
周五双倍精彩。
A double dose on Friday.
我们有布伦丹。
We have Brendan.
还有亨特。
We have Hunter.
两位，欢迎来到节目。
Guys, welcome to the show.
我们先从布伦丹开始，今天会全面梳理图表数据和价格走势。
We're gonna start off with Brendan first because we're gonna cover everything from the charts, what we're seeing in the price action.
我们得聊聊迈克尔·塞勒、MicroStrategy 和 Stretch 的最新动态。
We have to cover what's going on with Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy, and Stretch.
然后我们确实找到了一些值得关注的信息。
And then we did.
我们还发现了一些关于山寨币的基本面消息，想跟大家分享一下。
We found some good fundamental news that we wanna share with everybody too around altcoins.
目前排名前十五的最赚钱山寨币有些新动向。
There's some stuff going on with the top 15 most profitable altcoins.
这些内容我们觉得特别值得拿出来跟你们说说。
We found that we wanna bring it to you.
最后呢，照例来个轻松的周五盘点，话题多着呢。
And then just a normal fun Friday rundown, a lot to talk about.
不过你们也看到了封面图，我们先从图表分析开始。
But as you saw in the thumbnail, we're breaking down the charts first.
Brendan，你来开个头吧。
So Brendan, take it away.
是的，Tevo。
Yeah, Tevo.
这周到目前为止可真够折腾的。
It's been quite the week over here so far, man.
比特币跌到了大约五万八千美元的新周期低点。
Bitcoin coming to new cycle lows of just around $58,000 flat.
这比六月初的时候还要低，甚至比二月份那次暴跌和回调时的水平还要低。
This puts us lower than what we saw about a month ago at the start of June, and it puts us lower than we were back in February during that kind of crash and pullback.
那这说明了什么？
So, well, what does this mean?
这意味着好几件事。
It means a couple of different things.
这是在一天时间周期上看到的走势。
This is what that move looks like on the one day time frame.
我来放大看一下。
I'm gonna zoom us out.
你能看到，价格从那个最后的看跌旗形和200日均线，还有我们经常在复盘里提到的几个关键水平开始破位。
You can kinda see the initial breakdown from that last bear flag and the two hundred day moving average and a couple of those other levels that we talk about lot on the rundowns.
破位就是在这里发生的。
The the breakdown happened here.
这里有个小反弹，冲向了20日均线。
Here's that low, slight rise up into the twenty day moving average.
上次复盘的时候我们好像聊过这个，但我当时就觉得，这怎么看都像又一个看跌旗形。
One of the things I think we talked about this on the last rundown, but I was like, man, this is starting to look like a bear flag again.
我知道社区里大家都在讨论这个，但我真不看好。
I know we've been talking about this in the community, but I didn't like it.
它看起来像个上升通道，但20日均线接连被拒绝，又一次被挡了回来。
It looked like another rising channel, The rejections of the twenty day moving average, another rejection.
我特别不看好的是上周末的价格走势——价格冲高后又大幅回落，留下长长的上影线，收盘低于周末高点，之后卖压持续不断。
And one of the things I really didn't like with this was last weekend's price action where we were able to move higher, come all the way back down with this wick, close beneath the weekend highs, and then kind of see these selling candles continue.
从上周末那会儿开始，行情就一直这么往下走了。
I mean, we've seen it just kind of continue from that point on since last weekend.
从周一到周二、周三、周四，现在到了周五。
You have kind of the Monday start, the Tuesday, the Wednesday, the Thursday, now the Friday.
昨晚价格跌到了大约五万八千美元，比一个月前的高点低了将近一千美元，也比二月初的高点低了两千美元。
And last night, we hit that low of right around $58,000, putting us about $1,000 beneath our our high from about a month ago, and about $2,000 beneath our high from early February over in here.
所以现在我们来到了一个非常关键的水平。
So this brings us to a pretty pivotal level.
你看，各个市场都在普遍下跌，这让我们陷入了一个挺微妙的境地。
I mean, you're seeing everything across the board kind of fall, and it puts us in a weird spot.
我觉得这可能是最让人困惑的时期之一，因为你看到本周股市在下跌。
And I think that this has been probably one of the more confusing times, because what you see here is you see the stock market falling this week.
你看到加密市场本周也在下跌。
You see, obviously, the crypto market falling this week.
你看到能源价格，比如油价，本周也在下跌，金属价格同样在走低。
You see energy prices like oil falling this week, and you see metals also falling this week.
这种情况其实非常罕见。
And this is a really rare situation.
通常情况下，金属、能源、加密货币和股市不会连续一周全都一起暴跌。
You usually don't have metals, energy, crypto, and stocks all crashing collectively together for about a week straight.
这种情况很少见。
It's rare.
有些资产甚至已经连续好几周这样了。
Some of these, you know, multiple weeks in a row.
这种表现真的很反常，非常罕见。
It's really weird, odd, and rare activity.
以前，油价上涨的时候，风险资产可能会下跌，或者反过来。
For a while, you had oil moving higher, and then maybe risk assets would move lower or vice versa.
过去，人们常把金属看作一种对冲工具。
Typically, you know, in the past, people like to look at metals as maybe a little bit of a hedge.
它们往往会在风险偏好上升时跟着走高。
They become a little bit more risk on.
现在所有东西都以一种很奇怪的方式在动，普通人看了肯定觉得一头雾水。
I mean, you just have everything here moving in a pretty odd manner that I think the average person is probably finding confusing.
所以我再重复一遍。
So, again, I'll repeat that.
现在股票、加密货币、金属和能源都在普遍下跌。
You have stocks, crypto, metals, and energy all kind of moving to the downside here.
所以这就让人想，嗯……
And so it's like, okay.
那我该看哪里呢？
Where do I look then?
因为我知道，在加密货币领域，我们看到比特币也在经历这种情况。
Because I know here in the crypto space, we see this happening on Bitcoin.
新低点一个接一个地出现。
We see the new lows come in.
我们就会纳闷，比特币怎么突然这样了？
We're like, oh, you know, why is Bitcoin kinda doing this?
这确实是真的。
And it's true.
你知道，比特币这段时间表现一直偏弱。
You know, Bitcoin has been underperforming.
但过去这一周左右，四大主要资产类别居然全都在跌，简直找不到一个真正避险的地方——我都不太想说‘避险资产’了。
But, you know, in the last week or so, there there was really almost I don't I don't wanna say no safe haven, but almost no safe haven if, like, the four major asset classes were all collectively kind of heading down together.
这确实让我们进退两难。
So it puts us in between a rock and a hard place for sure.
以太坊也重新跌回了1500美元附近。
You have ETH kind of moving back into the lows as well, 1,500.
Solana虽然没创新低，但也一路下跌，不过今天倒是出现了一波明显的反弹。
You have Solana here, not quite going to new lows, but, you know, selling off and seeing a really big rally here today.
至少Solana还带来了一点乐观情绪，表现相对强一些。
So at least you're getting a little bit of optimism and overperformance out of Solana.
XRP就更差了，又创了新低，价格还回到了1美元附近，这是自2024年底以来头一回。
XRP, definitely an underperformer here as it's going into new cycle lows, and it actually came to the $1 area for the first time since, man, the end of twenty twenty four.
差不多有一年半了。
So about a year and a half.
你已经看到其他几个表现不错的项目了。
You've seen a couple of other, you know, big kind of performers here.
我知道Hyper Liquid是我们经常聊的一个热门标的。
I know Hyper Liquid has been a big one that we like to talk about.
我个人非常看好这个。
I'm I'm a big fan of this one.
我知道Hunter也很看好。
I know Hunter is.
我们之前没少讨论过它。
We talk about it, you know, quite a bit.
昨天从低点反弹，日内涨幅接近11.5%，势头相当强劲。
But seeing a huge bounce off yesterday's low, bounce from low to high of day of around 11 and a half percent.
到现在为止，你还能看到它正试图从50日均线附近再度向上突破。
And even now, you can see it trying to make a push to the upside off this fifty day moving average.
在继续之前，图表给我们传递了什么信号？
So what are the charts telling us here before we move on?
因为还有很多基本面的东西值得讨论。
Because there's a lot of fundamental things to talk about.
我觉得这里的图表让我们处境挺尴尬的。
Well, I think the chart the the charts here, they put us in a tough spot.
我长期来看乐观吗？
You know, am I very long term optimistic?
是的。
Yes.
这一点从来没变过。
You know, that hasn't changed.
所以当我接下来要说这些的时候，我希望你们记住核心：我不是在看一两年后的事。
So when I say what I'm about to kinda talk about, I want that to be kind of be the center point, which is that, you know, I'm not talking a year out, two years out.
我依然很愿意在回调时买入，就是基于这个时间框架。
I'm still very much, you know, wanting to buy the dip with that time frame in mind.
我不会说，嘿。
What I'm not gonna say is, hey.
接下来的一天、一周、一个月，情况就有点不确定了。
Maybe the next day, the next week, the next month, Little bit more uncertain here.
你看，市场会测试低点，形成更低的高点，然后大幅回落到低点，再创新低。
You know, what you get is a test of the lows, a lower swing high, and a big rejection back to the lows, lower high, back to the lows again.
看起来下行压力确实在不断积累。
It really does look as if pressure is building towards the downside.
这可能意味着，我们接下来得再往下走一走。
And maybe what that could mean is that we might need to move lower.
这能保证一定发生吗？
Now is it a guarantee?
不能。
No.
当然不是，这点很清楚。
You know, obviously not.
这种事本来就没有百分百的保证。
There's no guarantees in this stuff.
但当我看到价格一路打压到低点，出现一个大幅的更低高点，再压回低点，又一个更低高点，再次回到低点，这种反复推压，情况就很明确了。
But when I see kind of a push to the lows, a massive lower high, push to the lows, another lower high, back to the lows, push, it's clear.
很明显，空方现在完全掌控了市场。
Like, the sellers are really kind of in control of this market.
每次多头想反攻上行，都会立刻被空方和空头狠狠打压回来，把价格又拉回下方。
And every little attempt that the bulls have to go back to the upside, they're just getting immediately smacked by the sellers and the bears, and it's pushing us back down.
所以从短期来看，走势并不乐观。
So not a great look in the shorter term.
不过我们还是得看看后续会怎么发展。
Again, we'll see what happens.
也许价格会第三次触及这个位置，然后反弹起来。
Maybe we touch this for the third for the third time and we bounce.
但当我看到图表上出现这种走势时，我就在想，嗯。
But when I see this kind of behavior on a chart, I'm thinking, hey.
至少我得做好准备，考虑一下这种可能性，嗯。
I wanna be buckled up at least for the idea that, hey.
这里可能还会再跌一点。
We could see a little bit more downside here.
我觉得这个可能性是存在的。
I think it's something that's on the table.
我不是说今早有人给我发消息。
And I'm not saying I had someone text me this morning.
他说：‘老兄，你觉得下一波会不会跌到两万？’
He's like, dude, do you think we're heading to 20 K next?
我就想，这些人怎么老是冒出这些数字？
I'm like, where do people get these numbers from?
有人跟我说过一万。
I had someone tell me 10 k.
还有人跟我说过低于一万。
I had someone tell me sub 10 k.
现在我听到的却是两万。
I'm getting 20 K.
我觉得这些人就是随便从推特、社交媒体上，或者干脆凭空捏造出这些数字。
And I think they just pull these numbers off of, like, x or social media or, you know, out of their rear end.
但我的回答是：不会。
But my answer there is no.
当我说可能会继续下跌时，我的意思是——
Like, when I say we could head lower, my thought is, hey.
咱们可能跌到五十附近。
We could go into the fifties.
要是出现一波大抛售，说不定会冲到四十八九。
If you get a really big flush, maybe the high forties.
但我估计大概会在五十左右，至于能不能真跌到那儿，到时候再看吧。
But I'm thinking probably somewhere in the fifties, and then maybe we see what happens if we do even get it.
像什么一万、两万、两万五这些说法，我觉得都被夸大了，空头们有点太着急了。
I think these talks of, like, ten, twenty, 25 k, I think they're a little bit blown out of proportion, and the bears are getting ahead of themselves.
所以我一直在留意这边的情况。
So, you know, I'm keeping an eye on this over here.
你已经看到一些之前超卖的币种，比如索拉纳、AAVE，还有威尼斯的Hyperliquid，这些最近从低点反弹得不错，走势开始回升。
You have seen some, again, some more oversold ones like Solana, like Aave, like, you know, Hyperliquid in Venice, some of these things bouncing pretty well here back to the upside off of some of these recent lows.
这个我平时不太提，但Stable这边一直稳稳地保持着一个漂亮的上升趋势。
And this is one that I don't talk about a lot, but stable over here has been just maintaining a beautiful uptrend.
我展示这些，就是想让大家知道，市场上还是有希望的板块的。
So I show all of these to to show everyone that there is pockets of hope out there.
这里的图表，说实话，谈不上多差，但也算不上多好。
The charts right here, again, not looking not looking horrible, not looking great.
我觉得现在更偏向于观望，让我想先按兵不动。
I'd say they're leaning a little bit to towards the side of of making me wanna just kinda sit on my hands.
这正是我目前对待这个行情的态度。
That's the way that I'm looking at playing this.
但如果价格再往下走，我依然会考虑逢低买入。
But I wanna be a buyer of the dip should we go lower than here.
我只是想提醒自己，嗯……
I'm just making sure that, hey.
我现在在这个市场阶段并没有加满杠杆。
I'm not fully levered up on this stage of the market.
我在山寨币上的配置也没有做到充分分散。
I'm not fully diversified in the altcoins here.
说实话，我持有的山寨币比例比较低。
I've I've you know, I have less altcoin exposure.
我手上还留着现金，因为如果——关键在‘如果’——价格再跌，我真的很想趁低买入。
And I have dry powder on the sidelines because if, keyword there's if, we go lower, then I really do wanna be buying the dip.
我觉得我们很快就会进入一个绝佳的抄底区域，待会儿我会截个图，帮大家更清楚地看清楚这个机会。
I think, you know, we're gonna be at a great buy the dip area, and we'll show a screenshot to kind of to to orchestrate this later and visualize it for all of you.
这大概就是我的想法。
But that's kind of my thought.
我现在选择观望，但会保留充足的现金。
Sitting on my hands, I wanna have dry powder.
如果价格继续下跌呢？
Should we go lower?
我想趁低买入。
I'm I wanna be buying the dip.
我一定会趁低买入。
I will be buying the dip.
不过目前我对这个市场的看法比较保守，这也是我的策略，Tevo和Hunter。
But right now, I'm a little bit more conservative with with how I'm looking at this market, and that's kind of my approach here, Tevo and Hunter.
太好了。
Awesome.
让Hunter在这里，正是我的想法——听听不同的观点。
Hunter, so having Hunter here is kind of my thought is getting two different perspectives.
显然，我们所有人一起，包括Crypto 101，都是长期看多的。
So obviously, Crypto one zero one and all of us together jointly, we're long term bulls.
但在这种波动剧烈的市场里，听听不同意见总是有好处的。
But inside this type of volatility and type of market, it's always good to get different opinions.
我在这档节目里经常说，我就喜欢有Brendan这样的搭档。
And I say this on the show all the time is like that's what I love having, you know, Brendan.
我们有亨特。
We've got Hunter.
我们还有布莱斯。
We've got Bryce.
如果你一直在看峰会，那你一定知道罗希特，而且布莱恩和乔也经常上节目。
If you're tuning into the summits, you know Rohit and we've got obviously Brian and Joe come on the show all the time.
所以这期节目，我特意请来多位嘉宾，带来不同的观点和深度思考。
So this is one of those episodes where I'm sourcing, you know, multiple thoughts, multiple big brains here.
亨特本人就是技术分析方面的专家。
So Hunter, Hunter's a technical analysis guru himself.
接下来请亨特打开图表，分享一下他的看法，大家在聊天里有什么问题也欢迎随时提，我们后面还有一份详细的分析清单。
So let's have him pull up the charts, give you some thoughts and then we will, any questions in the chat, happy to take those and then we have a pretty big rundown sheet.
亨特，你先来个五分钟的简要分析吧，想讲多久都行，之后我们再一起讨论，顺便过一遍清单。
So Hunter, you know, take it, you know, a little five minute breakdown or whatever you got for us and and then we can discuss and hit the sheet.
你认为是什么最拖慢团队的进度？
You know what slows teams down more than anything?
问题往往不在人数预算，也不在工具本身。
It's not always head count budget or even the tools themselves.
而是因为工作的方式只存留在某个人脑子里，从没被写下来。
It's when the way work gets done lives in someone's head and never actually gets documented.
一旦新人加入、新系统上线，或者同事离职，大家就开始用不同的方式做同一件事。
Then someone new joins, a new platform gets rolled out, or a teammate leaves, and suddenly everyone's doing the same process in a different way.
今天赞助我们的Scribe，正是为了解决这个问题而生的。
That's exactly the problem today's sponsor, Scribe, was built to solve.
Scribe是一个工作流AI平台，能实时捕捉任何操作流程，并自动生成一步步的文档。
Scribe is a workflow AI platform that captures any workflow in real time and turns it into a step by step documentation automatically.
你只要打开浏览器插件，像往常一样操作，Scribe就会自动记录每一个点击、每一步操作和截图。
You just turn on the extension, do the process like you normally would, and Scribe builds the guide as you go, capturing every click, step, and screenshot.
它已经获得超过八万家企业的信赖，包括近一半的《财富》500强公司。
And it's already trusted by over 80,000 enterprises, including nearly half of the Fortune 500.
我们团队是远程办公，我确实多次不得不反复向同事解释同样的设置或流程，每次都觉得这事儿早该在第一次就写清楚的。
With our team being remote, I have definitely had moments where I've had to explain the same setup or process more than once to a colleague, and it always feels like something that should have been documented the first time.
用 Scribe，原本要花几个小时写文档、截屏和整理的工作，一分钟内就能准备好分享。
With Scribe, what could take hours of writing, screenshots, and cleanup can be ready to share in under a minute.
Scribe 还会自动屏蔽截图中的敏感信息，比如姓名、邮箱和账号号码。
Scribe also automatically redacts sensitive information like names, emails, and account numbers from screenshots.
管理员可以统一设置，确保团队里没人漏掉这些安全细节。
Admins can enforce that across the team so nothing slips through the cracks.
而且，任何人在执行流程时，都能实时看到屏幕上的指引，清楚知道该点哪里。
Plus, anyone following the process can get real time on screen guidance showing exactly where to click inside the actual tool.
Scribe 不只是记录工作流程。
And Scribe doesn't just document workflows.
它还能用 AI 推荐优化方案，帮你发现重复步骤、瓶颈环节和可以简化的部分。
It uses AI to suggest ways to improve them, helping you spot redundant steps, bottlenecks, and places to simplify.
想预约个性化的企业演示，请访问 scribe.howcrypto100one。
To book a personalized enterprise demo, visit scribe.howcrypto100one.
这就是 Scribe。
That's scribe.
如何/crypto100one。
How/crypto100one.
当然。
Certainly.
谢谢你们的分享和精彩的分析。
Thanks for that guys and wonderful analysis.
布伦丹，和往常一样，我和布伦丹的观点其实非常接近。
Brendan, as always and you know, Brendan and I actually have a pretty similar viewpoint here.
我们都认为可能会再次跌破6万美元，而5.8万美元这个水平至关重要。
We've been both identifying this as a possible another low to sweep below $60 and the $58 k level being really, really, really important.
我来给你们说说具体原因。
And I'll show you just some reasons why.
实际上，整个周期是从2022年的1.5万美元低点开始的。
Really, we're looking for this whole cycle really began from 2022, the $15 k low.
从那个低点一路涨到2025年10月的高点，我们可以看到所有的价格走势和成交量水平。
So looking from that low all the way up to our October 2025 high, we can see all of this price action and kind of all the volume levels.
如果你看过我们在YouTube上发布的量能分布视频，那我接下来要做的这种分析，你应该会非常熟悉。
And if you've watched our volume profile video on YouTube, then this will be very, very familiar with you about this analysis that I'm about to kind of employ.
现在你注意到了，当我们重新跌回6万美元附近时，其实是因为价格跌破了7.3万美元这个水平。
So right now, you'll notice that really when we decided to make new lows to come back to 60 k is when we got back below the 73,000 level.
那为什么这一点这么重要呢？
Now why is that important?
从量能分布的角度来看，看看这个柱状图，你会发现，在2024年底的时候，这里形成了一片巨大的成交密集区，大量交易都发生在这里。
Well, because this whole range, volume profile wise, looking at this histogram right here, we have this massive node of consolidation where a lot of this volume transacted back at the end of twenty twenty four.
所以当我们重新回到这个区间时，我们特别关注这些量能水平是会支撑价格，还是会形成阻力。
So when we came back into this range, we were really going to watch what these volume levels were doing, if they were going to be supportive or resistant of price.
可惜的是，你看到这个破位发生在月初，价格直接跌破了价值区高点，大约在7.2万到7.3万美元之间——这个位置非常关键，也接近我们的VWAP和其他技术位，但无论如何，它把价格又拉回了这个区间。
Well, unfortunately, you can see that that breakdown happened at the beginning of the month right down below the value area high around 72 to 73 ks, which happens to be a very important level that's going to be close to some like your VWAPs and some other levels, but nonetheless, this brought us back into this whole range.
当我们跌破这个巨大的量能区域后，价格一路下行，最终低点正好落在了这个量能平台的另一端。
And so we've seen as we've gone below, we've come back below this massive level of volume and our low down here is actually at the other other end of that shelf.
最近这段时间，如果我们看近期内的走势，我画一条线，指向这里这个节点，你会发现——抱歉，
So you'll notice recently in the more near term, if I just take a line and I look at this kind of note right here, you'll see that I'm sorry.
在这里你可以看到，我们最近触底后又回落到了大约59,000的位置。
Up here, You'll see that our recent when we took the low, came back down to about 59,000.
之后有一波短期反弹，持续了大约两周，涨到了67,000到68,000之间。
We had a short term rally for about two weeks up into 67 to 68,000.
我们重新测试了这个区域，结果是个看跌的反应。
We retested this node and it was a bit of a bearish retest.
当然，从长期来看我还是看多的，但这次走势表明价格可能会再往下走一点，试着在55,000到59,000之间寻找支撑，而我们现在就处在这个区间。因为之前我们指望价格能重新站上这个水平，才能继续向上构建趋势。
Now, of course, I'm long term bullish, but this is a bit of a signifier that we would come a little bit lower and maybe try to seek value to mid fifties or high fifties is where we're at right now because We wanted to see a reclaim of this level to continue structure back to the upside.
可惜的是，这个目标没能实现。
Unfortunately, we didn't get that.
那现在我们该看什么？
So now what are we looking at?
我们已经触及了200周均线。
Well, we've touched the 200 weekly moving average.
目前还没收于其下方，这一点很重要，因为一旦真的跌破，可能会引发更深的回调。
We haven't closed below it yet, so that's important because once we do close below it, that opens up maybe a little bit of a deeper pullback.
不过，我们还有这条线性趋势线，就是这儿这条白色虚线，它和另一个我常看的水平位重合了，那是斐波那契回撤的一部分。
Nonetheless, we have our linear trend line, this white dotted line coming up right here coalescing with another level that I like to look at all the time, which is part of the Fibonacci retracement.
就是0.618那个位置。
It's the 0.618.
也就是黄金比例，大家经常听到这个词。
The golden ratio, you'll hear about it all the time.
那这个水平位具体在哪儿呢？
Well, where is that level?
这个位置在57,800。
That's at 57,800.
我们可以把它看作58,000，这也是从15,000低点开始的长期锚定成交量加权平均价，目前也在58,000附近。
Let's call it 58 even as well as the long term anchored volume weighted average price from the $15,000 cycle low right here at 58 ks.
所以很多关键价位都聚集在了一起。
So a lot of levels coalescing at once.
另外，我看了看RSI，大家应该能注意到，在周线图上，我们一直在尝试形成背离。
And then also, I just look at the RSI, you'll notice on the weekly here, we have been trying to create a divergence.
我们原本希望在上次跌破6万的时候能触发，但并没有发生。
Now we were hoping we would maybe get it on this last low when we first flushed below 60, but we didn't.
所以现在我们正试图重新建立联系，通过接下来的价格走势来形成这个背离。
So now we're actually kinda trying to reconnect and create this divergence with a little bit more price action going forward.
在周线图上，至少可以明显看到下行动能正在减弱，希望这次背离能推动价格至少回升到这个区间上沿。
So on the high time frame there, at least calling it the weekly, we are seeing momentum to the downside definitely dwindle, and hopefully this divergence will be the one that plays out for at least a move back up to the higher end of this range.
不过，在价格重新站上67680美元之前，一切都还不算确认。
Now nothing is really confirmed until we reclaim the $67.68 level.
你也能看出来，这个区域既是关键阻力也是重要支撑，只是目前它充当的是阻力位。
As you can tell, that's a massive area of resistance and support, unfortunately, being resistance at the moment.
如果我把日线图放大一点，你会发现一个挺有意思的现象。
Now if I just zoom in a bit on the daily, you'll notice something actually kind of interesting.
从心理层面来说，价格总是倾向于向整数关口靠拢。
So psychologically, price likes to go to hold numbers.
这是个币对，你注意到了吗？这也是我当初觉得底部还没到的原因——那个低点正好是60001美元。
Well, this is the coin based pair, and you'll notice and this is one reason why I didn't think the low was in originally when we were making this bear flag, is the bottom was $60,001.
所以基本上就正好落在这个位置上。
So it's pretty much exactly on there.
那我们现在低点在哪呢？
But where is our low right now?
正好是58,000。
Exactly 58,000.
所以这让我有点犹豫，不确定这到底是不是真正的低点，但目前来看，确实有迹象表明这可能是个短期底部，之后有望反弹上去。
So it gives me a little bit of hesitation if this is going to be the low, but right here, it is showing signs that this could be possibly a short term bottom to maybe move back up higher.
我们会密切关注这一周的收盘情况，尤其是周线图，周日结束时的那根K线，特别是现货市场。
And we will be monitoring that to see kind of how the week closes, the weekly candle on Sunday, of course, for spot.
而今天，再过几个小时，比特币期货就会出炉了。
And then today, actually in a few hours, we'll get Bitcoin futures.
BTC1！我们会看它能不能重新站上6万大关，如果真能回去，那可能是个短期信号，说明我们可能会迎来一波小幅反弹——至少我监控的这些品种，整体都已经转绿了。
So BTC one exclamation point, we'll see if that actually decides to close back above 60 ks because that would be a short term signal that we might get a little bit of a weakened rally as we do see things turn green across the board on my watch list at least.
但不管怎样，日线图上我们也正在形成一个背离形态。
But nonetheless, we are also creating that daily divergence on the daily.
如果现在形成一个低点，这可能会是一个不错的短期底部信号。
So if we were to make a little low right here, this could be a nice swing low signature.
但要确认这一点，我们得先反弹回到63万5千这个水平，也就是之前这些低点的位置。
Now it won't really be confirmed until we get at least back above this sixty three fifth 500 level, which is, you know, these prior lows right here.
这会是我们首先希望看到的价格回补区域。
That would be our first kind of area of reclamation that we'd want.
然后，如果价格再突破上一次的回调高点，一旦形成这样的走势结构，那可能预示着七月会有上行走势。
And then, of course, another move above this last rejection in which if we do start to get structure like this, well, this could bode well for at least a July, you know, movement upwards.
但目前，价格仍面临下行压力。
But for now, pressure remains to the downside.
资金费率还是略偏正，说明多头还有被清理的空间。
Funding rates are still a little bit positive, which means the longs can still kinda get flushed out.
我们下方还有56万到57万区间的关键支撑位，可能会被触及。
We do still have levels below us here in the 56, 57 level area that could get hit.
不过眼下，价格确实正在形成一个潜在的、不错的短期底部形态。
But right now, price is definitely forming a possible nice swing or swing low formation here.
如果日线能回升到六万美元以上，这周就可能是个短期反弹的机会。
So if the daily does move back up about, you know, above 60 k for the week, then I could see this as a short term rally opportunity.
很明显，这里有很多因素都汇聚在了一起。
As you can tell, we have a bunch of confluence here.
不过，还是有一些亮点，主要集中在多个去中心化交易所上。
But once again, there are pockets of brightness and they happen to be revolved around a lot of the decentralized exchanges.
就像布兰登提到的，Hyper Liquid。
As Brendan mentioned, hyper liquid.
其中一个就是Lit，或者叫Lighter。
Well, one is Lit or Lighter.
我们之前在《Cryptnation》的‘每周代币’栏目里专门写过它。
It's actually one that we've written about in the coin of the week for the Cryptnation fam out there.
今天它的价格已经涨了大约12%。
And it is nicely getting a move up of about 12% today.
和Hyper Liquid这样的去中心化交易所一样，永续合约这个叙事方向，我们喜欢它的根本原因在于，哪怕市场情绪剧烈波动，不管是涨是跌，这些平台依然能持续产生收入。
So in tandem with the Hyper Liquid, the decentralized exchange, perp decks, narrative, One reason we like these kind of fundamentally is that even in moments of speculation when it's either up or down, so we're in like a down market, these platforms are still garnering revenue.
它们仍在持续产生收入。
They're still accruing revenue.
这部分收益最终会回馈给代币持有者，因为他们能从交易手续费中获利。
And this goes back to the token holders because they make money off trading fees.
通常，交易量越大，市场波动就越剧烈，而恰恰是在下跌行情中，这种情况更容易出现。
And a lot of times higher trading volume can happen when there's more volatility, which happens to be when there is downside.
在比特币走势如此低迷的市场里，Lighter却表现出相对强势。
So we're seeing lighter showing relative strength in a market where Bitcoin's going like this.
我们想找的就是这种走势的标的。
We're looking for kind of stuff that's going like this.
高点越来越高，低点也越来越高，再创新高，再创新低，现在这里又是一个新低，接着就是延续行情了。
Higher high, higher low, higher high, higher low, higher high, dare I say higher low right here, and here we go for some continuation.
所以Lighter这里明显是延续趋势的信号。
So really lighter here for continuation.
如果价格能重新站上前期高点，我就会关注这个位置——从启动以来的价值中枢和关键控制点。
If we get a move back above the highs, I'd want to see this, you know, value or high and this point of control from inception.
所以这个160到170的区间，现在得守住。
So this range from 160 to 170 right here to hold.
说不定还会回来测试一次。
So maybe even a retest of it.
不管怎样，这走势明显是在试图再次向上突破，直奔我们之前设定的上方目标，中间几乎没有阻力，直到0.382斐波那契回撤位，正好就在这个节点附近。
Either way, this looks like it's trying to break out back again to our upper targets where there's really no resistance until this 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, which happens to be in this node.
再往上，成交量非常稀少，直到触及0.5的位置，才会回到之前的平台区域。
And then above that, there's a very minimal volume until we get up to the 0.5, which is back into this shelf.
这个标的的上行空间和风险比很理想，我们一直都在关注。
So this is one that has a good asymmetric return profile to the upside, one that we've been watching.
这里黄金板块像几块孤岛，周围一片黯淡，但大势已经开始转变。
So pockets of gold and kind of a sea of darkness here, but nonetheless, the tides are turning.
方方面面都在发生改变。
They are shifting in many ways.
对我们团队来说，你们也听过我从基本面分析过，但这里我想说的是，我们正在形成更高的高点、更高的低点，一再尝试突破之前的高点和成交密集区，也就是1.60到1.70美元这个区间，而在这之前，从历史高点到低点的0.382回撤位附近，成交量一直很清淡。
And even for us, you know, here at the team, you guys heard me talk about it fundamentally, but what I was saying here is that we're making higher highs, higher lows, higher highs, higher lows, higher highs, higher lows, trying to break back out of the valuer high and the point of control, which is this range from $1.60 to $1.70 with not a lot of volume until this 0.382 retracement from the high all time high to the low into this node.
接下来我们关注的价格是2.16美元左右。
So around $2.16 is the next price we're looking at.
我们在通讯里也提到过这些目标位。
And we've written about this also in the newsletter as the targets.
再往上，下一个主要目标是2.60美元。
And then the next major target here up at, $2.60.
这个机会的上行潜力明显大于下行风险。
So this one is offering asymmetric upside potential.
我们在观察很多指标。
Looking for a lot of things.
其实我最看重的就是市场结构，当比特币这样走的时候，趋势就是向上。
Really, what I'm looking for here is just market structure, trend to the upside when Bitcoin's going like this.
没必要想得太复杂，跟着趋势走就行。
And it doesn't have to be much more difficult than that, just following the trend.
今天咱们看到一个强劲的突破，目前涨了12.3%。
But we're getting a great breakout today, up 12.3% right now.
所以，我这边主要关注的就是这两点，各位。
So that's the two things I'm kind of looking at here, guys.
我先把话筒交还给大家。
I'll kick it back to y'all.
是的。
Yeah.
分析得真到位。
Great breakdown.
我这边想换个角度，跟大家聊点别的。
I'm actually gonna jump around on the sheet fellas here.
咱们来找找你们刚才提到的那些看涨机会吧，毕竟你们有专业的见解。
So let's let's find those pockets of positivity that you guys were talking about because again, you guys bring your expertise.
我负责分享我观察到的情况，咱们俩的信息最后会以一种很有趣的方式交汇。
I bring what I'm seeing and they they kind of converge in their own fun way.
我接下来要调出来的是灰度基金收入最高的前十五种加密货币。
So what I'm gonna pull up here is the grayscales top 15 revenue producing cryptos.
那你们在这里能看到什么？
And so what can you see here?
Hyper Liquid 排在最上面。
Hyper liquid at the top.
往下看。
You go down.
我待会儿会讲到 Ave。
I'm gonna talk about Ave in a second.
你们一直关注这个社区。
You've been in the community.
你们也看过我们讨论过 Sky。
You've seen us talk about Sky.
你们也看过我们讨论过 Aerodrome。
You've seen us talk about Aerodrome.
刚才还提到过 Lighter。
You've seen just went over lighter.
最近亨特提到，这币是当周热门币种。
It was a coin of the week recently, Hunter said.
这里头真正有意思的地方是这样的。
So here's what's really interesting about this.
第一，如果你是社区的一员，或者一直关注我们的节目，你应该都听说过这些。
Number one, if you're somebody who is a part of the community, you've been or listen to the show.
我们之前已经聊过很多这类内容了。
We've talked about a lot of these.
但要想第一时间拿到这些信息，比如那些早期的提示、每周热门币的预告，还有深入分析为什么我们在六到八周甚至更早就开始讨论这些，这些内幕都只在社区里才有。
But again, to get that first info, kind of those first calls, those coins of the week, those deep dive write ups of understanding why we're talking about this stuff six, you know, six, eight, eight weeks, months plus before you're going to see these type of tweets, That's inside the community.
如果你喜欢技术分析环节，我们准备了一大堆链接，帮你更深入参与。
And if you like the technical analysis session, we've got a plethora of links to get more involved.
详情请看下方的描述。
So check down in the description below.
如果你想试用我们的通讯，了解每周热门币，我们还提供免费试用。
We've got dollar trials if you want to try out the newsletter to get the coin of the week.
当然，我们还有一些交易方面的内容。
And obviously, we have some trading stuff.
这周布伦丹的课程开放了。
So Brendan's cohort is open this week.
如果你感兴趣，我下面放了链接，下周就能报名。
So I put a link down there for that if you're interested in Next week.
下周。
Next week.
所以总的来说，记得把信息链接放好。
So net like so basically, always put the information link.
但这次你直接往下拉，注册就行。
But this time, you can just go down, sign up.
如果你感兴趣，就报名吧，会纳入下周一开课的那期。
If it's something that you're interested in, sign up and you're going be included in the one that starts a week from Monday.
不好意思。
Sorry.
谢谢，布伦丹。
Thank you, Brendan.
另外我知道，那边有不少一美元的试用项目。
And then I know just, you know, we have a lot of dollar trials there.
势头不错的赚钱机会。
Momentum moneymakers.
如果你想试试 Cryptnation 的话。
If you want to try Cryptnation.
去看看这些，更好地参与进来。
So check those out to get more involved.
现在比以往任何时候都更需要持续学习。
Now's the time to stay educated more than ever.
不过你后面说的那番话，我觉得特别有意思。
But I thought it was really interesting to hear you say later.
我当时就想，行了，咱们直接切入这个话题吧。
I was like, alright, we just got to jump to this.
所以我觉得，那些表现不错的项目，大多都有实实在在的收入。
So that's what I think a lot of these things that are doing good, they have real revenue.
你可以看到它们的收入倍数。
So you can kind of see the revenue multiples.
Uniswap 的倍数达到了 37，这个数字特别突出。
37 kind of sticks out for Uniswap.
这简直高得离谱。
That's pretty damn high.
Hyper Liquid 的倍数是 15，这还算正常，像一些科技股，估值大概在 15 到 17 之间，有时高一点能到 18、20，甚至更高到三四十。
Hyper liquid at 15, that's kind of maybe $15.17 is a is a, you know, normal tech stock range, might be what eighteen, twenty, sometimes on the higher end up in the thirties.
但看到有些项目的收入倍数这么低，还挺有意思的。
And then it's interesting to see those revenue multiples so low on some of those.
我觉得这反映了一种市场情绪：你得有收入做支撑，得真正为市场带来价值。
But I think it's a sentiment of that's where the money's flowing is you got to have some backing of some revenue and you got to bring some value to the market.
就像之前那位先生说的，波动性恰恰是这类项目的机会。
And as the guy said earlier, you know, the volatility is opportunity for these type of projects.
这周我看到不少关于Aave的消息。
And I I I saw a lot of stuff on Aave guys this week.
标准银行发布报告，说Aave到2030年可能涨50倍，达到3500美元。
Standard Charter was coming out and said Aave could 50 x to 3,500 by 2030.
标准银行这个看法挺看好的。
Bullish take from Standard Charter.
我看到之后就提了一下，因为还发现Kraken拿下了Aave 15%的股份，而且Stani——我们之前在播客里请过的Aave负责人——最近也在社交媒体上频频发声。
And then I I just saw that and I brought it up just because I saw Kraken took a took a 15% stake and then Stani who we've had on the we've had on the podcast before, who's the lead over at Ave has been making some noise on the timeline as well.
所以当这些信息和你们在图表上看到的趋势正好吻合时，我觉得很有必要拿出来聊聊。
So it's always interesting to kind of take in this information then when it cross pollinates perfectly from what you guys were seeing on the charts, I thought it was worth worth bringing up.
你对那些有真实收入的项目和那些没有收入的项目，有什么看法吗？
So any any thoughts on that on the thesis of the revenue, making projects versus, know, maybe the ones that don't.
我觉得这些事情能串在一起，挺有意思的。
I thought that was cool for all that to be tied in.
我刚和团队里的另一位分析师Rohit刚写完一篇关于这个话题的深度分析。
You know, I just finished a really big write up with another analyst on the team, Rohit, about this exact topic.
我们自己的研究，还有从峰会、播客和其他渠道接触过的嘉宾那里了解到，现在大家越来越关注那些真正取得成效并赚钱的项目。
And what we've seen in our own research and from a lot of the guests that we've actually talked to from the summits and the podcast and other things, is that there is an increasingly larger emphasis and focus on projects that are succeeding and making money.
这两者其实是不一样的，对吧？
Those are two different things, right?
因为你可以只做到其中一项，也许它会带来另一项，但我所说的‘成功’，指的是他们是否真的在实现自己的目标，是否在扩张？
Because you can do one and maybe it can mean the other, But I'm talking about when I say like success or that they are succeeding, I'm talking, you know, are they actually accomplishing their mission and are they expanding?
他们的活跃度有没有提升？
Are they seeing more activity?
用户数量有没有增加？
Are they seeing more users?
客户是不是越来越多？
Are they getting more clients?
有时候，这些确实会带来实际的收入。
Some of the time that will also lead to them actually producing money.
但我认为，你至少需要其中一项，或者两项都有，而这正是投资者和交易者越来越重视的方向。
But I think you need one, the other, or both, and that's been an increasingly bigger focus from investors and and traders alike.
所以我觉得有必要关注这些情况。
And so I think it is important to look at this stuff.
看看今年不少项目，很多都有不错的收入或不错的进展。
If you look at a lot of the projects that have run this year, a lot of them have had some source of decent revenue or decent success.
说白了，要么是用户越来越多、活跃度越来越高，要么就是赚了不少钱。
Again, they're either expanding and becoming more active and more used, or they're making a lot of money.
我随便举几个例子，比如 HyperLiquid。
Just off the top of my head, you have hyperliquid.
还有 Near。
You've had near.
还有 Venice，它其实也是个很好的例子。
You've had I know, like, Venice has actually been a really good example of that too.
Sky、Canton，这样的项目还有很多。
Sky, Canton, the list goes on.
除了名单上的这些，还有不少类似的项目，但关键还是得看具体项目本身。
There's a number of them out there alongside some of the ones on this list, but I think it really depends on the project.
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有些项目赚钱更重要，另一些则更看重活跃度和使用量。
Some making money will be more important, others gaining activity and having usage will be more important.
我觉得那些老项目如果一直看不到起色，用户就会失望，转头去找别的了。
And I think a lot of the projects that have been around for a while and they're not seeing that, well, people are becoming frustrated and they're looking elsewhere.
这里有个容易被忽略的关键点：就算一个项目赚钱，甚至有活跃用户，也不代表它的代币就能从中受益。
The caveat here, and I think a lot of people will miss this, is just because a project is making money and just because it might even be seeing activity, but I would especially say just because a project's making money and having good revenue, does not necessarily mean that the token benefits from it.
很多老项目的问题就在于，它们确实能赚钱。
And that's been the issue for a lot of these older projects is that they can make money.
它们确实有收入。
They can see revenue.
背后交易的金额很大，但代币持有者几乎得不到任何好处。
There's a lot of money transacting behind the scenes, but the token holders don't benefit nearly at all from it.
有时候是一点都得不到。
Sometimes not at all.
完全没份。
Just nothing.
所以那些项目，人们都在想，我为什么要持有它们呢？
And so those projects, I think people are looking at and saying, well, why would I own this?
你知道，至少买股票的话，你还能获得公司的一小部分所有权。
You know, at least if you're owning a stock, you are getting a, you know, fractional ownership of the company.
说不定还能拿分红，至少你算是个股东。
Maybe you get a dividend, but you have ownership.
但这些代币就不一样了，根本不是这么回事。
With these tokens, it's just not really the case.
你手里有代币，也许能参与一点投票权。
You have the tokens, and maybe it's used for, like, a little bit of voting power.
但如果没有任何收益分成、回购机制，或者别的什么激励，对吧？其实有无数种方式可以设计。
But if there's not some sort of revenue share or buyback or just something, right, there's a million different ways to go about it.
如果没有让你愿意长期持有的理由，很多人我觉得就开始放弃这些项目了。
But if there is not something that incentivizes you to be a holder, then a lot of people, I think, are kind of starting to ditch those ones.
当然不是所有情况都这样，但我确实觉得这已经成了一个越来越明显的趋势。
Now not always, but I do think that that has been a more popular trend.
所以，Tevo，回答你的问题，我觉得这一点非常重要，而且你现在也能看到大家越来越重视这个趋势。
So, Tevo, to answer your question, I I think it's very important, and you're seeing a bigger emphasis placed on this.
我觉得我们还是会继续朝着这个方向发展。
And I just think that we continue to head in, like, head in that direction.
是的。
Yeah.
这说明整个行业正在走向成熟。
It's it's the maturity of the space.
对吧？
Right?
当你看到贝莱德这样的机构，还有我们之前聊过的富兰克林数字货币时。
When you have the BlackRocks and we've talked about Franklin Crypto.
我昨天见到节目的一位朋友。
I saw a friend friend of the show yesterday.
克里斯·珀金斯刚上了CNBC。
Chris Chris Perkins was on CNBC.
我昨天翻出了那条推文。
I pulled I pulled that tweet out yesterday.
所以再说一遍，这正是这个领域走向成熟的表现。
So again, we had this this is the maturation of the space.
对吧？
Right?
从我刚起步的时候说起，布兰登，你还记得吗？那时候我们请来的嘉宾总说：‘我们是匿名的。’
We go from when I first started, Brendan, remember we would have we would have these guests on the podcast and they'd be like, oh, we're anon.
我们不露脸。
We're not gonna show our face.
然后你就说：‘哦，行吧。’
And it's like, oh, okay.
只要你的项目不错，我们就愿意跟你聊。
Like, you're I have a good project, so we'll talk to you.
但我一直觉得，这种做法是这个行业特有的，我也能理解，但等到资金规模达到几亿、甚至上万亿美元的时候，这种做法就行不通了。
But like, I always thought that was, you know, a unique part of the space and understood it, but like, that's not gonna fly as you get into, you know, hundreds of million dollars, trillion dollar market caps.
这种做法行不通了。
That's not gonna fly.
举个例子，前几天下午我在干活的时候，
And then so a great example is like I'm doing my work the other day or yesterday in the afternoon.
突然想到节目老朋友克里斯·珀金斯。
Was like, Oh, friend of the show, Chris Perkins.
我们几周前才刚请他上过节目。
We just had him on the podcast a couple of weeks ago.
如果你上《加密入门》聊投资加密货币，现在可不只是上个播客那么简单了——你都可能被 CNBC 叫去采访了，这就是行业成熟的表现。
And so, you know, if you're coming on Crypto 101, you want to talk about investing in crypto, you don't, you know, you're getting called on to CNBC that this is this maturation process.
贝莱德、富兰克林邓普顿这些大机构，还有其他不少巨头，现在都纷纷进场了。
BlackRock, Franklin Crypto, all the other big names that are getting involved here.
摩根士丹利也在推加密ETF，诸如此类。
Morgan Stanley with the ETFs and all that.
这中间有个挺有意思的转变。
And an interesting transition
在这儿
here
我们之前讨论过，比特币总是领涨的。
of thought is we talked about how Bitcoin always led.
有时候比特币确实是个先行指标。
It was like, okay, Bitcoin's a leading instrument sometimes.
对吧？
Right?
它一上涨，股市就跟上来了。
It's like as it goes up, well, the stock market will follow.
但后来比特币跌了，我们知道，这种相关性就不成立了，因为股市还在继续上涨。
And then Bitcoin kind of fell off as we know and it was like, that correlation doesn't work because the stock market kept flying.
不过我觉得，如果仔细看看背后的情况，现在市场确实很特别，总是充满变化，但这次芯片和AI的热潮，感觉有点历史性，这只是我的看法。环顾四周，我们之前好像在下跌中显得有点孤立，对吧？
But I just think it's really interesting if you really look underneath the hood because it's such an interesting time in the markets as it always is, but I don't know, this feels a little bit historical with this chips run, the AI run, that's just my opinion, but starting to look around, like it felt like we were kind of alone in this downdraft a little bit, right?
看着别人都在狂欢，但你仔细一看，也不是所有人，只是某些领域开始真正跟上了。
We're watching everybody else have fun, but you're starting to look around and everybody start not everybody, but there's some pockets that are truly starting to follow.
韩国。
South Korea.
最近韩国市场因为下跌而暂停了交易。
South Korea has been, getting halted recently for some downdrafts.
你提到过金属，布伦丹。
The metals, you mentioned it, Brendan.
黄金下跌了百分之二十九。
Gold, down 29%.
白银从高点回落了百分之五十二。
Silver, down 52% from its high.
我还记得，布伦丹，那个周五我们做过一场直播，当时都说白银的时代要结束了。
I remember me and you did a live, Brendan, that Friday where it was like the end of silver as we knew it.
一天之内就大幅波动。
A one day swing.
那天白银一天就跌了百分之二十。
It was like 20% down in one day.
这些贵金属本来应该是用来储蓄的资产。
Again, these are precious metals which are supposed to be, you know, savings vehicles.
黄金和其他金属都在下跌。
The gold, the metals are falling down.
嗯，这个数据在表格里哪儿来着？
And then and then even I guess, where's this one on the sheet?
那个关于科技七巨头的帖子我没保存下来。
The Mag seven is I didn't save that tweet.
之前好像提到过科技七巨头的事。
There was a something with the Mag seven.
我记得谷歌这个月就跌了18%。
It was, you know, I think Google itself is down 18% this month.
脸书的跌幅已经超过20%了。
I'm seeing Meta down 20 plus percent.
亚马逊、微软这些科技巨头都在跌，这点我们都很清楚。
Amazon, all these kind of Microsoft, you know, the the the Mag seven are down and then obviously we know.
我先把话筒给你，我去找一下那个图表。
I'm gonna hand this off to you because I wanna find that graphic.
我再试试找那个图表。
I'm gonna try and find that graphic.
你觉得呢？你们认同这个说法吗？
But what do you what do you guys do you do you agree with that?
挺有意思的是，比特币突然就跌了。
It's like, hey, it's interesting how Bitcoin fell out of bed.
抛开芯片板块不谈——这个现在还不确定今天走势如何——但其他方面都开始隐隐走低了。
And now minus the chip trade, which again remains to be seen where it is today, but everything's starting to kinda trend a little bit lower.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
确实如此。
It is.
你刚才提到韩国了。
I mean, you mentioned South Korea.
韩国那边暂停了他们的指数，差不多就是他们的标普类似物。
South Korea halted their their basically, their version of the S and P or their version of their indices.
这周已经两次熔断了，特沃。
It halted twice this week, Tevo.
只要跌够8%就会熔断，结果这周两次都触发了，真够离谱的。
That means it needs to fall at least 8% to halt, and it halted twice, which is crazy.
找到了。
Here it is.
从历史高点的跌幅。
The decline from all time highs.
你继续说，布伦丹，这个你来解释一下。
Continue, Brendan, but you can speak to that.
我这儿有你想要的数据。
I I got the stats there for you.
是的
Yeah.
对
Yeah.
不是
No.
不过这个也很不错。
I mean, this one's great too.
我是说，韩国的科技板块，主要由三星和SK海力士驱动，这两家大科技公司，他们的市场一跌就触发8%的熔断。
But, yeah, I mean, South Korea's tech sector, which is driven largely by Samsung and SK Hynix, two big tech plays, their market halting down 8%.
你能想象标普500指数跌8%会是什么情景吗？
Could you imagine the S and P 500 going down 8%?
那肯定得乱套了。
I mean, it would be panic.
我们前不久也经历过一次接近这样的暴跌，那可真不妙。
We had one drop that was almost like that not too long ago, but that's bad.
一周内发生两次这种事，简直太疯狂了。
Having it happen twice in a week would be crazy.
当然，那边的情况有点不一样，波动性也更大，而且确实一直非常不稳定。
Granted, it's a little bit different over there, but and it's gonna be a little bit more volatile, and it has been extremely volatile.
不过，现在各种担忧都在冒头，不光是加密货币而已。
But, yeah, there there's fears coming up to the surface here all over the place, and it's not just crypto.
对。
Yeah.
我接下来想看的最后一个图表是：这种情况会持续下去吗？
And and then the the final graph I had teed up was, like, will this continue?
你看一下半导体ETF和七巨头之间的对比。
So can you see kind of the semiconductor ETF compared to the mag seven there.
半导体的表现简直太夸张了，再说一遍，这并不是财务建议，但你确实应该分散投资，别只盯着一个行业，这波涨得太离谱了。
There's been crazy outperformance and definitely, again, this is why you probably, not personal financial advice, but you wanna be diversified, you wanna take some different sectors, but the outperformance here is crazy.
所以问题来了：这种势头能持续吗？
And so the question is, does this continue?
那接下来会发生什么？
So what happens here?
再说一遍，这纯粹是我个人的一种推测。
And again, this is more of just a theory of mine.
你的那些超大规模云服务商——微软、亚马逊、Meta——都在大把大把地砸钱搞资本支出。
It's like, okay, your hyperscalers, your Microsofts, your Amazons, your Metas are just pouring CapEx.
资本支出就是投资。
CapEx is investment.
他们正在源源不断地往里投钱。
You're just pouring money into this.
但现在，他们开始受到惩罚了。
And now they're starting to get penalized.
股市的意思是：你们花这么多钱，自由现金流却在下滑，可半导体和芯片ETF却一路飙升，原因就是你们花的钱太多了。
So they're saying, you know, the stock market's saying, hey, you're spending all this money and your free cash flow is coming down, but the semiconductor and the chips ETF are flying because you're spending all this money.
那么，这两者到底会在哪里交汇？
So where where does it meet?
要么是亚马逊，或者苹果。
Either Amazon, you know, Apple.
苹果刚宣布因为芯片短缺，要提高iPhone和Mac的价格。
Apple just announced they're raising iPhone prices and Mac prices because the chip shortage.
如果这些公司都在投资人工智能，那什么时候能看到成果呢？
So if all these companies are investing in AI, when does the results come?
因为如果成果迟迟不来，我觉得接下来六到十二个月，你可能会看到，按我的推测，他们的资本支出开始收紧。
Because if the results don't come, I think what you're going to see, again, in theory, in the next six months, year, you're going start to see that CapEx valve get a little tighter.
一旦资本支出收紧，半导体ETF就会开始回落。
And when that CapEx valve gets a little tighter, that semiconductor ETF is going start to come back down.
你要么看到科技七巨头提升标准，跟上半导体的趋势，
So either you're going to see mag seven kind of raise the bar and follow what the semiconductors are.
要么看到半导体板块回调。
You're to see semiconductors come in.
我不确定会往哪个方向走，但我觉得市场现在就是这个态势，如果把这跟加密货币联系起来，也说得通。
I don't know which way it's gonna go, but I feel like that's kind of where the market is and it makes sense for if you bring it, circle it back to crypto.
对比特币来说，关键问题是，到底什么才是推动流动性和下一波市场走势的催化剂？
For Bitcoin, it's like, well, what's the catalyst here of understanding what the next market moves are for liquidity?
感觉接下来可能会有一段震荡，咱们得看看事情怎么发展。
It feels like maybe there's some chop coming down, and we got to see how this gets played out.
亨特，你怎么看？
Hunter, your thoughts?
是的。
Yeah.
这话说得很有道理。
That's a great point.
而且这里还有一个问题。
And here's the issue too.
这些公司都在增加资本支出，那他们钱从哪儿来？
With all these firms that are increasing their CapEx, well, how do they get the money to to do the CapEx?
只能靠借钱了。
They got to raise debt.
所有期限的利率都在上升。
We've got rates that are going up on every tenor of the curve.
所以未来他们的利息支出会变得越来越高。
So they're gonna start having an issue that a higher interest expense down the road.
我觉得这会稍微收紧流动性。
So I think that will constrict liquidity a bit.
在我看来，这更多是整体降低风险，同时偏向人工智能。
Now I see this more as a broad de risking with an AI tilt.
我的看法是，像SOX指数和这个iShares半导体ETF这样的AI内存板块，表现一直强于比特币。
The way I look at that is that we've had outperformance in AI memory like the SOX, this iShares Semiconductor ETF relative to Bitcoin.
但与此同时，散户的货币市场基金和现金类工具也在增加。
But you're also seeing retail money market funds and cash cash vehicles actually increase as well while that's happening.
这意味着并没有大规模的资金轮动。
So what that means is that there's not a huge rotation necessarily.
更准确地说，是整体降低风险，同时偏向人工智能。
There's a bit of a broad de risking, but with an AI tilt is the way I look at it.
所以，现在利率上升，流动性确实会收紧一点，这对比特币一向不太有利，毕竟比特币本身就很依赖流动性。
So yeah, a little bit of liquidity constriction based on now with rates going up, that's never been too well for Bitcoin, which is a very liquidity constrained vehicle.
我觉得往后看，市场可能会有点震荡，但最终还是会迎来一次资金轮动。
So I think down the road, that's what we're going to kind of see is there's going to be a bit of a chop, but we're going to see a rotation.
我之前看了个图表，比特币和AI内存股之间的关系，现在跌到了多年来的最低点，超卖得厉害，这种位置通常意味着要反转了。
I was actually looking at a chart earlier that relationship of Bitcoin to the AI memory stocks, and it's at like multi multi multiyear lows at extremely oversold levels at places where there would be a turn.
我认为，至少到今年年底、直到最后一个季度，市场正在转向。
So I do think a shift is upon us going through to the, like, the end of the year, at least till the last quarter.
说得很到位。
That's a great point.
布伦丹，你对这个话题还有什么补充的吗？我准备转下个话题了。
Brendan, any final thoughts on this topic before I transition this on?
没有。
No.
没什么别的了。
Nothing else.
我觉得我们说到点子上了。
I think we hit on it.
很好。
Great.
我要特别感谢聊天室里的朋友们。
I wanna give a shout out to the chat.
有来自新罕布什尔州的朋友，那里可是‘不自由，毋宁死’的地方。
We got some people from New Hampshire, live free or die in New Hampshire.
我以前和家人在新罕布什尔的纽福克湖度过了很多愉快的时光。
Had some great times in Newfound Lake with the family up in New Hampshire.
还有利物浦的朋友在。
We've got Liverpool.
致敬利物浦。
Shout out to Liverpool.
今天我们跨越了大西洋，各位。
We're across the pond today, boys.
那边正经历热浪呢。
They're dealing with a heat wave.
欧洲一些地方出现了历史性的高温。
The, parts of Europe getting some historical heat.
记得喝点水。
So have a glass of water.
那边很多人不太喜欢开空调。
A lot of those people, they don't like AC over there.
我也不太确定。
So I don't know.
我和布伦丹要是去欧洲，真不知道能不能撑得住。
I don't know if me and Brendan could survive over in Europe.
感谢世界各地的朋友参与进来。
We appreciate everybody joining in from around the world.
告诉我们你们来自哪里。
Let us know where you're from.
给这个视频点个赞，如果是新来的，记得订阅。
Give this video a like, and if you're new, subscribe.
这对我们成长帮助很大，一如既往，想更多参与社区的话，下方链接别忘了点开。
It really helps us grow the And as always, check out the links below if you want to get more involved with the community.
各位，我先放一段视频，看看接下来的环节怎么样。
Fellas, I'm going to start with a clip here just to see if our next segment.
咱们听听看。
Let's take a listen.
没错。
Right.
这其实就是工程设计的逻辑。
I mean, that's the engineering.
我给你上行空间，却没让你承担下行风险，而且你等着发财的时候，还能拿分红。
I give you the upside, you have no downside and I pay you a dividend while you wait to get rich.
明白吗？
Okay?
也就是说
Which is
我让你分享上涨收益。
I give you the upside.
你没有任何亏损风险，而且在你等待致富的过程中，我还会给你分红。
You have no downside, and I pay you a dividend as you wait to get rich.
这些话，朋友们，可能会让一家律所着手调查，看看是否涉及证券违规行为。
These are the type of quotes, fellas, that are leading us to a law firm potentially launching a probe into strategy for potential securities violation.
有一家律所似乎正在准备对迈克尔·塞勒提起集体诉讼。
There is a law firm that seems to be preparing possibly a class action lawsuit against Michael Saylor.
MicroStrategy 的故事还在继续。
The MicroStrategy saga goes on.
接下来我们就来聊聊这个，好好拆解一下。
That's gonna be our next topic to toss it around and break down.
现在已经有风声说要提起这场诉讼了。
So there's whispers of this lawsuit.
从证券角度来看，他们是在拿他的营销话术和言论做文章，比如那种说法——你只要等着，就没有任何风险。
And I guess for in the sense of securities, they're pulling his marketing and his quotes, you know, like that saying, hey, you guaranteed you wait, you have no downside.
你知道的，我们可不是金融顾问。
You know, that's something that again, we're not financial advisors.
我们不能提供个人财务建议，但我想，任何负责任的受托人都不会说‘你完全没有风险’，除非是那种由政府背书的传统债券，那才勉强算得上接近这种说法。
We can't give personal financial advice, but you know, I don't think any fiduciary would ever say, hey, you have no downside unless it's, I guess, a traditional bond that's backed by the it's about as close as you can get to saying that.
所以现在有好多段这样的视频片段。
So there's a lot of different clips.
我知道还有一段特别火的Sailor AI视频，讲的是某个AI角色在泳池里说话。
I know there was also a famous Sailor AI video that was like, you know, some AI person in the pools.
我退休了。
Oh, I retired.
我就做了个伸展运动。
I just did stretch.
这里头能拆解的东西可真不少。
So there's a lot to break down here.
时间线上现在信息量好大。
There's a lot going on on the timeline.
对迈克尔·萨伊尔的批评特别多。
It is very negative towards Michael Saylor.
对MicroStrategy和Stretch的负面评价也很强烈。
It is very negative towards MicroStrategy and stretch.
也许这确实有道理，毕竟现在它的价格已经从100美元的锚定点跌了28%。
And and maybe rightfully so, because right now, it's down 28 from its $100 peg.
我们说的Stretch，是那种优先股股息投资标的。
We're talking about stretch, which is the preferred stock dividend play.
布伦丹，你先说说你的看法吧。
So, Brendan, let me pass it off to you first.
说说你的想法。
Get your thoughts.
你先开个头。
Tee it up.
我很乐意调出其他信息或推文，但咱们现在得好好聊聊这个，因为气氛已经越来越紧张了。
Happy to pull up other information or tweets, but we wanna kick this one around because it the the temperature's heated up.
我们一直都在关注，但最近关于Sailor的讨论热度确实上来了。
We've been monitoring it, but the temperature's heating up on on Sailor right now.
是的。
Yeah.
不过我得跟你们说清楚。
I mean, we'll let it be known to you, though.
这已经是咱们第三次谈这个话题了。
This is the third time that we're talking about it.
我一直以来都持怀疑态度。
I have been a skeptic.
你们可以叫我反对者。
Call me a hater.
也可以叫我怀疑派。
Call me a skeptic.
对吧？
Right?
问题不在迈克尔·萨伊尔本人，也不在于他的策略。
It's not of Michael Saylor necessarily, or it's not of strategy.
我一直都很欣赏迈克尔·萨伊尔。
Like, I've I've I've really always liked Michael Saylor.
也一直欣赏他的策略。
Always liked strategy.
我不喜欢的是他最近的一些立场转变，你懂我的意思吧。
I'm a what I don't like is some of his recent change in stances, if that makes sense.
我不太认同他逐渐偏离了最初的使命。
I don't like how he's kinda shifted away from his original mission.
对吧？
Right?
他当初说要抓住机会买入比特币，长期持有，用这种方式作为策略，我非常支持这一点。
This idea that he was going to accumulate I think the idea of accumulating Bitcoin at opportunistic prices and holding it for the long term and using it that as a strategy, very much in favor of that.
我觉得他现在这么做，我一直持怀疑态度，就是太想抢占市场、杠杆用过头，野心有点太大了。
I think what he's done here and what I've been a skeptic of is trying to get overpositioned, overlevered, trying to get too much market share, and just, you know, overall just getting a little bit too ambitious with this.
对吧？
Right?
他推出那些新产品的时候，我其实挺无所谓的。
I think when he was launching these other products, I was kinda like, whatever.
我真不关心这个。
Like, I don't really care.
就这样吧。
It is what it is.
对吧？
Right?
归根结底，他们就是一家公司。
They're a business at the end of the day.
我特别不认同的是 SCRC，因为前面说过，这根本说不通。
What I really didn't like was SCRC because as I've explained, it doesn't make sense.
而且我觉得，这根本不符合我们见过的任何商业模式，当然，这不意味着它就一定行不通。
And and I don't think it works based on of off of any model that we've ever seen before, which I guess doesn't mean that it can't work.
我只是觉得，成功的可能性低了很多。
I just think it makes it a lot less likely.
那他们拿什么来支付股息呢？
Because how are they paying dividends?
他们根本没产生实际收益。
Well, they're not produced.
他们不是靠业务本身产生的现金流来发股息的。
They're not paying their dividends based off of the cash that they're making through the business model.
他们根本做不到，或者压根不想这么做，至少目前来看是这样。
They're pretty much unable to do that, or they can't do that, or at least they won't do that in the very least.
那他们到底拿什么来支付这些股息？
So how are they paying these dividends?
他们是靠卖出比特币来发股息的。
Well, they're paying these dividends by selling off Bitcoin.
但他们的整个商业模式一直都是买入比特币，从不卖出。
But their whole business model has always been buy Bitcoin, never sell.
长期持有就行。
Hold it for the long term.
既然他们总吹嘘比特币每年有30%的回报，那为什么还要卖呢？
Why would you sell if, you know, it has this 30% year over year return that they always boast about?
当然，这里面有些细节，他说他们做这个产品是为了筹更多钱去买更多比特币，因为借钱成本大概只有11%，而他们预期30%的年回报能覆盖差额，再加上卖币的收益之类的。
Now, again, there's some nuance in there, and he says, oh, well, we're doing this product so that we can raise more money to buy more Bitcoin because we're gonna borrow it at, like, 11%, and then our 30% annual return rate that we're expecting will make up the difference plus the sales and yada yada.
问题在于，万一这个预期没实现呢？
The issue becomes, what if that doesn't happen?
万一你进场的时候正好踩在高点呢？
And what if you you you get in at a bad time?
他们以前在高位的时候买了大量比特币。
Like, they were buying a lot of Bitcoin at higher rates towards the highs.
说白了，他们把自己搞得太重仓、太杠杆了，我觉得这其实是他们想再筹点钱的办法。
Again, they were getting themselves overpositioned, overleveraged, and I think that this is their way of trying to raise more capital.
不过咱们走着瞧吧，我觉得他们这次确实有点损害了自己的声誉。
And, you know, we'll see, But I think what they've done here is damaged their reputation a little bit.
我不太想显得太悲观，因为听我自己这么说，好像比实际情况要严重得多。
I don't wanna sound too pessimistic because as I'm as I'm listening to myself, it sounds worse than it probably is.
再说一遍，我最根本的立场是站在加密货币这一边的。
My again, my concern here is my loyalty lies to to to the crypto space first.
我希望比特币能成功。
I want Bitcoin to succeed.
我希望整个加密行业能成功。
I want crypto to succeed.
我担心的是——虽然不是马上就会发生，但他的那些更激进的举动，可能会带来一些负面影响，最终波及到我。
And my fear is that and it's not an imminent threat, but my fear is that his maybe more volatile actions can have repercussions that impacts me.
会影响比特币。
It impacts Bitcoin.
会影响整个加密市场。
It impacts crypto as a whole.
其实我们只要别杠杆用得太猛，别干这些蠢事，本来就能避免这种情况——说不定还会变好，但至少不会这么糟。
And all that we had to do to avoid this kind of thing and and maybe it gets worse, maybe it gets better, but all we had to do with to avoid this was not kind of get overleveraged and not do some of these things.
耐心点就行。
Just be patient.
要是他当初坚持原计划，只在回调时买比特币，根本不用突然抛售，也不用搞这么多花活，现在根本不会陷入这种局面。
Like, if he would have followed the original goal and just bought Bitcoin on the dips, you know, not have to sell Bitcoin all of a sudden, like, all these different things, then we wouldn't even be in this kind of situation.
现在他们每年得 payouts 近十亿美元的股息，而且还在不断增加。
Now they're gonna have to pay out, what, almost a billion dollars a year in dividends and and growing.
他们当初说这东西会稳在一百美元左右。
They said it was supposed to stay around a $100.
现在却跌到了历史最低点。
It's falling to all time lows.
情况越糟，大家就越失去信任。
As that happens, they lose trust.
以前人们对他们的尊重，还有那么一点忠诚度，也都慢慢没了。
They lose, you know, kind of the respect that people had, a little bit of the loyalty as well.
因为现在他们突然卖掉了比特币，而本应稳定支付股息的这个东西却在下跌。
Because now all of a sudden, they've sold Bitcoin, and this thing that's supposed to be stable paying them a dividends is dropping.
如果它在跌，至少应该提高投资者的收益率才对，但我怀疑他们现在有没有这个能力。
Well, if it's dropping, then they're supposed to at least raise the yield that people are earning, but I'm not sure that they're in a place to do that.
那它继续跌的时候，他们还能撑得住 payouts 吗？
So are they gonna be paying out even more as it's falling?
拭目以待吧，不过我觉得这里已经对声誉造成了一些损伤。
We'll see, but I think there's been a little bit of reputational damage here.
再说一遍，我觉得这短期内还不算核弹级的危机，甚至可能根本不会发展到那一步。
And, again, I don't think this is like a nuclear bomb in the near term or anything like that, and it might not ever really even come to anything like that.
我真正担心的是，一个人过于野心勃勃、过度杠杆，可能会拖累我们所有人，拖累整个行业。
Again, my fear is that one man getting overambitious and potentially overleveraged can harm the rest of us and can harm the rest of the space.
这种事我们见得还少吗？一个人干了蠢事，结果大家都跟着遭殃。
We've seen it too many times before where you have someone do something stupid and everyone gets affected.
对吧？
Right?
Terra Luna、Alameda、FTX，还有BitConnect，不过后者可能是个不太合适的例子。
Terra Luna, Alameda, FTX, know, BitConnect is probably a bad example.
但你确实见过好几次，那些掌管着大型加密相关项目的人都做了些事，结果拖累了所有人。
But you've seen like a bunch of different times where you've had like these people that are in charge of larger groups tied to crypto, then they get they do something maybe that harms everyone else.
这正是我最担心的事。
So that's my big fear here.
是的。
Yeah.
这个说法太到位了，因为节目的一个朋友Wayward三千在评论里说，Sailor正在经历加密周期里典型的主角式崩盘，跟你刚才说的一模一样。
Perfect perfect concept there, because a friend of the show, Wayward three thousand, just said in the comments, Sailor is experiencing the classic main character downfall or common in Crypto Cycles, which is exactly what you just said.
我觉得Wayward三千这位网友的评论特别精彩。
I thought that was a great comment from a Wayward three thousand Hunter.
关于这个，你还有什么补充的吗？
Anything to add on this?
你怎么看？
What's your take?
是的。
Yeah.
我们刚加入团队，还没跟你们一起经历过这些起起落落，也没跟进过Sailor的相关情况。
We obviously newer to to our team, so we haven't, you know, rode the ups and downs with you before and covered the sailor stuff.
说说你的看法吧。
So give us a take.
对。
Yeah.
至少我觉得这个策略股前景不太妙。
Well, I don't think this bodes well for the strategy stock at least.
很多人忘了，买优先股意味着在公司破产时，你对资产的清偿权优先级更高。
What people don't really remember is that buying preferred stock gives you a higher seniority on a claim on the assets under any insolvency.
公司的清偿顺序是：优先股在前，然后才是普通股。
So you have your liens on the company, your preferred stock, then your equity.
这优先股的层级可是高于普通股的。
Well, this is above the equity tranche.
这情况不太妙。
This is not going well.
它的交易方式根本不像债券。
It's not trading like a bond.
要想获得正收益，股价得涨超过60%才能回到锚定价格，而你现在的年化收益率才13%左右。
For you to get an all in return that's net positive, well, has to come up now over 60% to get back to peg when you're getting paid an annualized yield of about 13%.
这收益看着诱人，但如果本金一直在缩水，你拿不回同等金额的本金，那都是白搭。
Now that's juicy, but none of that matters if the principal is going down and you're not returning the same amount of principal.
我完全不看好这个。
So I don't like this at all.
整个结构我都觉得有问题。
I don't like the schematics of it all.
这种高速旋转的连锁效应，我也很反感。
I don't like the whirlwind flywheel effect of it.
更让人不安的是，它居然排在普通股东前面，可它自己本身已经跌了28%了。
I don't like that this is above the claims that normal equity holders get that it's actually down 28% in strategy itself.
股票跌得没那么厉害。
The stock isn't as down.
我觉得这对这家公司的整体策略来说，未来可不是什么好兆头。
I think that bodes as something fairly negative down the road for this strategy company overall.
但说到布伦丹的观点，我觉得很多东西其实是靠萨莱尔的个人魅力、群体心理或者网络迷因在推动。
But to Brendan's point, I think a lot of it is run by, you know, the aura or the egregore or the memetic magic of Saylor.
这种现象在加密货币圈里太普遍了。
I would say that's very rampant in crypto.
咱们得坦诚面对这一点。
Let's just be real about that.
只要这种优先股模式继续出问题，迟早会引发监管方面的麻烦。
And and so I think, you know, as long as this preferred equity model continues to break down, I think we're gonna see something of a regulation issue down the road regarding this.
但从长远来看，我觉得这不会影响到所有比特币投资者。
But long term, I don't think this will shake out all Bitcoin investors.
它更像是一片好土地里出了个害群之马，有点像FTX出事那种情况。
I think it'll be seen as a bad actor in a good land, something on the case akin to, you know, stuff that happened with FTX.
我不是在说同样的事，但咱们刚经历了一次出清，加密货币照样往前走。
And I'm not saying the same thing, but we just had a bad actor, a flush out, and crypto goes on regardless.
不过说实话，我一点都不喜欢这样。
But no, I don't like this at all.
我觉得这种事根本不能轻描淡写地放过。
I think this is type of stuff that you can't just brush off.
它其实透露出后台正在出问题的信号。
It does kind of signal things that behind the scenes are breaking.
老实说，这正是我的看法。
And honestly, that's what I take.
但换个角度看，这反而是好事，因为这类情况往往出现在宏观周期的低谷期。
But I think it's actually a good thing in a way because these type of scenarios play out towards macro cycle lows.
所以我觉得，至少从长远来看，这反而是个好兆头。
So I'm finding that as, you know, that bodes well for the future at least.
分析得真到位。
Great breakdown.
感谢你的分享。
Appreciate your thoughts.
我说这话可能有点偏颇，完全是自我中心了。
I'll say biased, completely biased and egotistical of me.
这些年我一直在尝试邀请迈克尔·塞拉上节目，发过推文，发过私信，那阵子市场火热的时候，我们还搞过一堆有趣的梗，他回复里也挺热闹的。
Obviously, over the years, I've tried to get Michael Saylor on the show, tweets, DMs, I had a great meme run when things were getting hot, we had some fun memes in his replies.
但他一直没来。
He never came on.
所以现在我想，算了，这样也挺好。
So I now I'm like, well, know, good for us.
因为我觉得，很多人总是想采访这个领域里最出名的人，那些比我们规模大得多的播客，其实并没有我们这样的社区和商业模式，我们有的是教育型的社群。
Because I think I think part of it is always everybody wants to talk to the biggest, you know, so podcasts in the space that are obviously bigger than us that don't have the community behind it and the business that we do, kind of having the educational community that we do.
他们只是内容创作者，采访过他而已。
They're just content creators that have talked to him.
而我，一直都在跟进这件事。
And I and I've covered.
他们根本就没怎么推动他。
They they just they never really pushed him.
当他推出这些项目的时候，其实这都是事后诸葛亮的说法了。
Like, when he was rolling all this stuff out, and again, this is a Monday morning quarterback take.
我得这么说，毕竟我在Barstow待过，我一向觉得，有什么说什么。
I have to say this because, you know, as somebody who's who's been at Barstow, I always gotta say, like, call it like it is.
我真的很希望Michael Saylor能上节目，还希望他能转推我们的视频，诸如此类的事。
I would have loved to have Michael Saylor, and I would have loved for him to retweet our videos, all that stuff.
但他没来，所以我现在回看那些采访，想起自己当时一边看一边做笔记，发现上过那么多节目，都没人真正问他尖锐的问题。
But he didn't come on, and so now I'm kinda watching and remembering how I watched all these interviews and was trying to take notes, and like, you know, you go on all these shows and nobody really pressed him that much.
他在电视上倒是被问得不少，但那些提问都太短了。
He got pressed on live TV a fair amount, but those hits are so they're so quick.
对吧？
Right?
就三五分钟，最多不超过五分钟。
They're like three minute hits, five minutes tops.
你到底能深入探讨多少呢？
How much can you really cover?
他上了那么多大型YouTube频道和加密货币播客，都是圈内备受推崇的人，但也没人真拿他怎么样。
And he's gone on these huge YouTube and crypto podcasts with real people in the space that a lot of people look up to, and he never really got pressed that much.
所以呢，我也说不准。
And so, you know, I don't know.
如果这事真搞砸了，那些人回头可能会想，唉，我当初是不是该换种方式对待？但也许他们就图个流量罢了。
I think that there's something to be said if this really falls out of bed the wrong way, you know, those people might look back and say, hey, maybe I should have taken this a different way, but maybe they're just all about the views, boys.
我们Crypto 101追求的是教育、社群和家人般的归属感。
And us at Crypto one hundred one are about the education and the community and the family.
如果你在这儿，就给我们点个赞吧。
So if you're here, give us a like, toss it a thumbs up.
非常感谢每一位支持我们的朋友。
We really appreciate everybody going.
在我们转向下一个话题之前，我想念一句我时常提醒自己的话。
And as we transition out of this subject, I will read you one quote that I like to remind myself of every once in a while.
聪明人破产通常就三种原因：喝酒、女人和杠杆。
Smart men go broke three ways, liquor, ladies, and leverage.
我听说迈克尔·塞勒在迈阿密有艘游艇。
And I've heard rumors of Michael Saylor's yacht down in Miami.
哦。
Oh.
哦。
Oh.
我们知道他用了杠杆，但具体怎样我也不清楚。
We know he has leverage and I don't know.
我自己也上过几艘游艇。
I've been on a couple of yachts myself.
那儿发生些什么，大家心里都明白。
We all know what goes on there.
所以嘛，我也说不准。
So I don't know.
我得亲眼看看这个。
I'll have to see this.
也许可以剪一段，留着以后回放用。
Maybe maybe clip that for a future, future clip to call back.
酒和女人，这是已故的查理·芒格常说的名言。
So liquor, ladies, that's the famous late great Charlie Munger.
我时不时就会想起这段话，提醒自己。
I always like to remind myself of that clip every once in a while.
咱们用点乐观情绪来收尾吧。
Let's end the show with some hopium.
大家最爱抄底了，兄弟们。
We love to buy the dip, boys.
我们就是抄底的那拨人。
We are dip buyers.
乔治·科斯坦扎从不抄两次底，但我们偏爱抄底。
George Costanza don't double dip, but we love the dip.
我们来看这张图。
Let's pull up this chart.
布伦丹，这个是你带来的吗？
Brendan, did you bring this one for us?
是的。
Yeah.
是我带来的。
I did.
那就开始吧。
Let's do it.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得回过头来看这张图很重要。
This is one that I think it's important to look back on.
对吧？
Right?
因为有时候我们会情绪化。
Because sometimes we get emotional.
我们在这里变得看空。
We get bearish on here.
或者我们没看空，但还是会讨论潜在的看空情绪，哪怕只是短期的。
Or we don't get bearish, but we talk about the bearish potential that there is, maybe even in the short term.
但长期趋势在这里是不会变的，各位。
But the long term stays the same here, guys.
不管短期怎么看，你都得明白长期是什么样子。
Regardless of of how we might look at the short term, you have to understand what the long term looks like.
这张图是从X平台上截取的，以比特币或BTC计价的，挺有参考价值。
And this is a good one from from priced in Bitcoin or priced in BTC over on X.
我来分享一下这张图。
I'm sharing this chart.
我记得这图涵盖了过去大约十年到十二年的数据，差不多是这样。
I believe it was with the last, like, ten to twelve years of data, something like that.
但这里写着：嘿。
But it says, hey.
如果你在每次回调10%、20%、30%、40%、50%、60%、70%的时候买入，一年后的平均回报率会是多少？
If you would have bought the dip at these pullback increments of ten, twenty, thirty, forty, fifty, sixty, 70%, how much would your return rate be on average one year later?
如果你在这些回调幅度买入，一年后的胜率会是多少？
And what would your success rate or your win rate be one year later if you would have bought at those those pullback increments?
我们现在大概在53%左右，52%到53%之间。
Now we're at 53% right now, right around 52, 53%.
我觉得在最低点的时候，胜率是54%。
I think at our low we are 54%.
那如果你在下跌50%甚至更深的时候买入呢？
So what if you're buying at a 50% or worse drawdown?
根据历史数据来看，这种情况下的平均胜率能达到89.8%，抱歉。
Well historically kind of going off this data, what this says is that your average win rate would have been 89.8%, and your excuse me.
平均回报率则能达到125%。
Your average return rate would be a 125%.
所以如果你在比特币下跌50%或更多时买入，一年后的胜率几乎能达到90%。
So if you're buying Bitcoin at a 50% drawdown or greater, your average win rate is going to be nearly 90% a year later.
你不仅会盈利，而且一年后的平均回报率能达到125%。
You'll be in the money positive, and the average return rate one year later is a 125%.
如果你能有接近90%的胜率，平均回报超过100%，那概率真的好得离谱。
So if you can come in with nearly a 90% win rate and an average return of over a 100%, like, the odds are pretty freaking good.
那如果跌到60%呢？
What if we get to 60%?
根据这些数据，一年后的胜率会达到98.3%，平均回报率甚至更高，达到132%。
Well, based on this data, it's saying that your your average win rate one year later is 98.3%, and your average return rate is even higher at a 132%.
所以我把这看作是刚刚好的区间。
So I kind of look at this as like the Goldilocks zone.
我是想在下跌50%到60%的时候买入，还是等到70%？历史数据显示，70%时胜率是100%。
Do I wanna be buying Bitcoin at a 50 to 60% win rate or 70, which has a 100% success rate based on historical data.
我是想在下跌50%到60%的时候进场吗？
Do I wanna be die buying at a 50 to 60% drawdown?
是的。
Yes.
但我想确保，就像Tevo说的，我在反弹之前不会被彻底打垮。
But I want to make sure, like Tevo said, I'm not getting destroyed before the recovery tends to happen.
很多人一进场就杠杆用过头，仓位也开太大。
A lot of people go in, they get overlevered, they oversize.
他们就是方法用错了。
You know, they they just do it the wrong way.
但如果你从更长远的角度来看，比如说——
But if you're just looking at this with a longer term horizon saying, hey.
根据历史数据，如果你现在买入，也许我不该这么说，因为这不算投资建议。
The odds are based on historical data, if you're buying now and maybe I shouldn't frame it that way because nothing's financial advice.
但根据历史数据，如果我现在买入， chances 是——
But the odds are if I'm buying now, based on historical data, you know, it's saying, hey.
一年后你我都有超过九成的概率能盈利。
About 90 plus are the odds that you'll be profitable a year later, that I'll be profitable a year later.
我不确定你们怎么样。
So I don't know about you guys.
我喜欢这样的胜率。
I like those odds.
有将近九成以上的成功率，平均回报还超过百分之百，从历史数据来看，这已经很不错了。
Having a near 90 plus percent odds of success with an average return of over a 100%, it's decent looking based on the historical data.
不过得提醒一下，有这些数据也不代表就不会出问题。
Now it's important to note just because there's that data, it can go wrong.
对吧？
Right?
没有任何保证。
There is no guarantees.
所以从现有证据来看，
So there's good evidence saying, hey.
你愿不愿意做一个长期买家，持有一两年？
Do you wanna be a long buy a long term buyer here for one, two years later?
对我来说，证据似乎指向肯定，但这并不意味着就不会出问题。
I think the evidence for me is pointing towards yes, but that doesn't mean that it can't go wrong.
过去确实出过问题。
It has in the past.
这些数字不是百分之百，肯定有它的原因，我觉得这点值得留意。
There's a reason that those numbers are not a 100%, and I think that's something worth noting.
所以风险始终存在。
So there's always risk.
这个观点说得很好。
That's a great point.
我跟布莱恩私下说过，我在这儿一直坚持每周买入。
I told Brian personally, I had my weekly buys going on down here.
就一点点，一点点而已，每次都买一点，我根本不去多想。
Just, you know, a little smidge, just a sprinkle, just every and I don't think about it.
就这么回事。
It's just like, Yeah.
这儿味道太难闻了，我干脆不想它。
It's it stinks down here, so I'm not gonna think about it.
就是把成本价再压低一点，再压低一点。
Just, you know, lower lower lower the cost basis here.
这样挺好，真是不错。
So that that's great, great stuff.
在我们继续之前，亨特，你对未来的回报有什么补充吗？
Anything to add there for, forward returns there, Hunter, before we move on?
这张图特别好，讲的就是老话：不是单纯待在市场里，而是要在市场里把握时机。我们现在的价位已经很低了，布伦南和我以前聊过很多次这个。
This is a this is a great chart and it it it's the old adage of not really time in the market, but time in the market and we're at deep value and we Brendan and I have spoke about this many times.
这正是积累价值的好时机。
Like, this is the value accumulation spot.
一点点地逢低买入，就现在这个位置。
A little sprinkles on, like, on spot.
我就喜欢现在这个价位。
I like it down here.
没错。
Definitely.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得咱们都在一个频道上。
I think we're we're all on the same page there.
这不是个人财务建议，就是朋友聊聊加密货币，各自在做什么。
Not personal financial advice, just friends talking crypto and what they're doing.
我找找看，能不能找点更亮堂点的消息，借着这股势头说点好消息。
I'll pull up, I think, some some brighter kind of to ride the back of this, some good news.
美联储那边，我们第一次见了新任主席凯文·莫里斯，挺有意思的。
So the the Fed, we had our first Fed meeting with, Kevin Morris, the new Fed chair, was was interesting.
从那次会里传出不少信息，能看出他打算怎么管美联储。
You know, a lot of interesting information coming out of that of how he's gonna operate the Fed.
不过再说一遍，美联储主席并不做最终决定。
And again, the Fed chair doesn't make the final decision.
这是一个委员会决定。
It's a it's a committee.
所以是委员会投票决定的。
So it's a committee vote.
因为战争和通胀，加上油价这些因素，大家一直担心又要加息、加息。
And and there's been with the war and inflation, everything from oil prices, there's been a fear of like, oh, got a rate hike, rate hike.
这感觉就像钟摆一样，对吧？
It it feels like one of those things where it's the pendulum, right?
年初的时候，大家还说要降息两到三次，说不定四次，结果战争一爆发，情况就变了，现在完全反过来。
Start of the year it was, we're getting two, three, who knows, maybe four rate cuts and then we, you know, obviously the war happens, things change and now it's on the opposite side.
现在反而要加息一到两次，感觉钟摆摆得有点太猛了。
We're getting one, two rate hikes and so it feels like the pendulum swinging a little bit violently.
我可能得去问问我的博彩市场专家布莱恩，我们平时也喜欢玩点小投注。
I might have to consult with my betting market specialist, Brian and I, as we like to dabble in some of the bets here.
我不太确定，现在加息的概率是53%吗？
I don't know fell, is it 53% of a rate hike?
我个人觉得，这里应该投反对票。
I personally right here would take no.
我对加息投反对票。
I would take no on the on the rate hike.
我不是说一定会降息，但至少我反对加息。
Not saying that there's gonna be a cut, but no on the rate hike.
如果非要说的话，美联储主席可能会安抚市场，但保持利率不变，这大概就是我对今年余下时间的判断。
And if anything, the the Fed chair might talk markets down, but but leave rates unchanged is kind of how I'm looking at the rest of the year.
但油价在下跌，理论上市场也开放了，现在谁也说不准，那条推文每天都在发。
But with oil coming down and in this in theory, the straight being open, who knows at this point, that tweet goes out every day.
市场关闭了。
It's closed.
市场开放了。
It's open.
市场关闭了。
It's closed.
现在是开放的。
It's open.
但我觉得进入中期选举前，从政治角度来说，油价高于一百美元这种事根本没空间存在。
But I think going into midterms, politic politically, like, there's no there's no no room for, you know, oil prices being above a 100, etcetera.
没错。
No.
你说得对。
You're right.
我觉得这一点上，我也倾向于持相反的观点。
I think that with this as well, I'm kind of on board with taking the other side of this.
明白。
Mhmm.
如果你看看最近的情况，特别是我们刚公布的美联储会议，那是凯文·沃什作为主席的第一次会议，他们当时依据的数据还是油价更高的时候。
If you think about what we see recently with the most you know, the the latest Fed meeting that we got, which was Kevin Worsch's first one as Fed chairman, they were going off of data that they had where oil was higher.
过去两三周，大家看油价，简直是断崖式下跌。
If you look at oil in the last two or so weeks, guys, it's in a free fall.
油价现在已经跌了，记得当初是多少来着？
Oil has fallen here from around I mean, what was it?
我这边查一下数据。
I'm gonna pull it up just on my end.
其实都不用在屏幕上展示出来。
I don't even have to show it on the screen.
要是看六月一号，也就是这个月初的时候，油价还在九十六九十七美元左右。
But if we're looking at what oil was at on June 1, the start of this month, just a couple of of weeks ago, it was at 96, $97.
现在油价已经降到六十九美元了。
We're now at $69 for oil.
这跌幅可不小啊。
I mean, it has fallen.
这到底是什么情况？
What what is that?
关键在于，那个价位正是我们当初最糟糕时的起点。
From that The thing is that that level is the level where we started the worst at.
就是同一个水平。
That's the exact same level.
对。
Yeah.
这个月一开始到现在，油价跌了整整三成，总体来看跌幅达到了四成二，你说得没错，这让我们又回到了很多事还没发生之前的位置。
It's it's a I mean, it's a 30% drop since the start of this month, and it's overall a 42% drop, which you're right, brings us back to where we were before a lot of this stuff even began.
所以那些整天嚷嚷通胀、喊着要加息的人，说来说去就是那套话，我觉得数据很快就会开始打脸这种观点。
So I think all the people that are yelling for inflation, for yelling and they're they're screaming for rate hikes, they're saying all these things, I think the data's gonna start going against that idea.
你已经看到不少人开始接受加息这个说法了，但咱们为啥非得谈加息呢？
You've already started to see people really get on board with this idea of rate hikes, but why are we talking about rate hikes?
主要还是因为能源，还有那边冲突带来的各种连锁反应。
Well, it's largely due to energy and a lot of the stuff that you've seen come out as a result of the conflict over there.
现在突然间，这些东西几乎又回到了冲突刚爆发时的水平。
Now all of a sudden, all that stuff's almost back to where it was when when all of this started.
那你怎么看？
So what are you gonna say there?
我不明白，怎么还能说，如果价格完全回落了，那些因素还存在呢？
I don't know how on earth you make an argument that if it comes all the way back down, that you're still saying that that that stuff is there.
看起来那些因素其实已经没了，哎，我一时想不起那词儿了。
It appears that it was oh, I'm forgetting the word.
我怎么就突然想不起来了？
Why am I forgetting it?
那可是我们以前最爱用的词。
It was our favorite word.
好像是叫‘暂时性的’。
Think it was transient.
是‘暂时性的’吗？
Transitory?
对，就是暂时性的。
Transitory.
谢谢提醒。
Thank you.
短暂的。
Transitory.
在某种程度上，它确实是短暂的。
It appears that it was transitory to a degree.
而且确实如此。
And yeah.
所以，特沃，考虑到这一点，如果你看看推动通胀的主要因素，很大程度上都来自这场冲突。
So, Tevo, think because of this, if you look at what the big inflation drivers have been, it's largely been from this conflict.
现在随着这些因素开始回落，我认为他们在下一次会议上必须面对一组与上次完全不同的数据，因为情况已经发生了巨大变化。
Now with them coming back down, I think that they're gonna have to go into the next meeting with a drastically different set of data that they didn't have in the last one, but now so much has changed.
如果到下一次美联储会议时，通胀仍停留在百分之六左右，那么数据所反映的情况就会出现巨大转折。
If if this stays in the sixties by the by the next time that there's a Fed meeting, you're gonna have a huge swing in what the data is saying.
我认为他们必须重视这一点。
And I think that they have to they have to to to take note of that.
如果真是这样，那么加息的可能性应该会急剧下降。
So if that's true, then the odds for rate hikes should drop like a rock.
亨特，关于利率你还有什么要补充的吗？
Hunter, anything to add on the rates?
是的。
Yeah.
说得很到位。
Well said.
而且确实，PCE和CPI数据都有滞后性，通常要一到两个月才能反映油价的变化。
And and it's because, yeah, the PCE, CPIs, they they work on a lag, you know, one to two months before you'd see that oil.
所以，正如布伦丹提到的，这一点非常关键：下次美联储会议时，会看到全新的数据。
And so to Brendan's point, which is a great one, is that there's gonna be new data at the next Fed meeting.
当然，加息的可能性已经上升了。
Now, you know, probabilities of it going up, of course, have gone up.
我个人觉得，利率可能维持不变，最多加息一次。
You know, I'm in the camp that we could be neutral to maybe one.
要知道，上次会议后公布的点阵图中值显示，预计会加息一次。
I mean, the median dot plot is for one hike from this past meeting last week.
但我觉得，结合新数据和凯文·莫里斯对CPI的处理方式，他其实想用一个不同的指标。
But I think with the new data and how Kevin Morris wants to approach CPI, he actually wants to do a different metric.
这个指标叫‘截尾均值’，就是去掉价格变动中最高的6%和最低的6%。
I'll I'll like, it's called the trimmed mean, where you take, like, the top 6% of price movements and the bottom 6%.
把这些异常值剔除后，再算平均值，这样通胀数据就会更平稳、更真实。
You just wipe those out kinda like outliers, and then you take that average, which will change and smooth out the inflation number.
所以，他们制定利率政策时，可能会因此变得更温和一些，希望如此。
So So then how they're gonna approach the interest rate might actually, yeah, be a little bit more dovish, hopefully.
另外，他们怎么处理资产负债表也很关键，这会影响流动性指标，因为如果缩表、让资产自然到期，市场收益率本身也会随之变化。
And then of course, there's how are they gonna use the balance sheet, which will also change a bit of the liquidity metrics because yields will might they might change just from the market standpoint if they shrink the balance sheet, they let it run off.
具体会不会这样，我们还得看看。
So we'll see if that's the case.
但不可否认的是，利率和比特币价格之间确实高度相关。
But if there's no denying that rates are definitely very correlated with Bitcoin's price.
所以，一旦市场出现企稳，再转向宽松，那肯定是比特币触底的好时机。
So anytime, you know, once we get a little bit of that kind of plateau and then maybe the easing, that's gonna be an area where the the low comes in for sure.
说得好。
Well said.
讲得很有道理，各位。
Points, fellas.
对。
Yeah.
说得好。
Well said.
这期节目太棒了。
And a great episode.
评论区很活跃。
Active chat.
最后再提醒一次。
One last call.
点个赞吧。
Give it a like.
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