加密货币简报：紧急：比特币见底信号？！我们正在关注的交易警报

当我们刚开始做这个播客时，似乎一切都得靠自己搞定：写脚本、安排拍摄日程、设计标志。

When we started this podcast, it seemed like we had to figure it all out on our own scripts, set up filming schedules, logos.

那段时间特别让人不知所措，每天都会冒出新的决定等着我们回答。

It was super overwhelming and every day seemed to introduce a new decision that needed an answer.

当你刚开始做一件新事情时，你的待办清单似乎每天都在增加新任务，而这个清单很容易就会淹没你的生活。

When you're starting off with something new, it seems like your to do list keeps growing every day with new tasks, and that list can easily begin to overrun your life.

找到不仅能帮你解决问题、还能简化一切的工具，可能会彻底改变局面。

Finding the right tools that not only helps you out but simplifies everything can be a game changer.

对数百万企业来说，这个工具就是Shopify。

For millions of businesses, that tool is Shopify.

Shopify是全球数百万企业的电子商务平台，也支撑着美国10%的电子商务交易。

Shopify is the ecommerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all ecommerce in The US.

从我们Crypt Nation和Crypto One One播客这样的知名品牌——你可以在这里购买我们的书和周边——到刚刚起步的新品牌，都在使用它。

From household names like us at Crypt Nation and the Crypto one one podcast, where you can get our book and merch to brands that are just getting started.

用数百个即用型模板，轻松开启你自己的设计工作室。

Get started with your own design studio with hundreds of ready to use templates.

Shopify 帮助你打造一个与品牌风格一致的精美网店，提升效率，无论你是上传新产品还是优化现有产品。

Shopify helps you build a beautiful online store that matches your brand style, accelerate your efficiency, whether you're uploading new products or trying to improve existing ones.

Shopify 内置了多种实用的 AI 工具，可以撰写产品描述、页面标题，甚至优化产品摄影。

Shopify is packed with helpful AI tools that write product descriptions, page headlines, and even enhance your product photography.

让你的宣传效果如同背后有一支营销团队在运作。

Get the word out like you have a marketing team behind you.

轻松创建电子邮件和社交媒体活动，覆盖客户浏览或闲逛的每一个平台。

Easily create email and social media campaigns wherever your customers are scrolling or strolling.

更重要的是，Shopify 是你的商业专家，在库存管理、国际物流、退货处理等各个方面都拥有世界级的专业能力。

And best yet, Shopify is your commerce expert with world class expertise in everything from managing inventory to international shipping to processing returns and beyond.

今天就与业内最佳的商业伙伴 Shopify 一起开启你的事业，开始听到成功的声音。

Start your business today with the industry's best business partner, Shopify, and start hearing.

立即注册，以每月 1 美元的价格体验，访问 shopify.com/crypto10one。

Sign up for your $1 per month trial today at shopify.com/crypto10one.

前往 shopify.com/crypto10one。

Go to shopify.com/crypto10one.

这是 shopify.com/crypto10one。

That's shopify.com/crypto10one.

一个精心打造的衣橱取决于那些搭配良好且持久的单品。

A thoughtfully built wardrobe comes down to pieces that mix well and last.

这就是 Quince 的优势所在。

That's where Quince shines.

采用优质面料，设计日常必需品，穿着轻松自在，并且随季节更替依然可靠。

Premium fabrics considered design in everyday essentials that feel effortless to wear, and they're dependable as the seasons change.

Quince 的日常必需品是我钟爱的，品质经久耐用。

Quince has everyday essentials I love with quality that lasts.

轻盈的羊绒毛衣、短袖蒙古羊绒Polo衫、100%皮马棉T恤，以及欧洲亚麻混纺针织面料。

Lightweight cashmere sweaters, short sleeve Mongolian cashmere polos, tees in 100% Pima cotton, and European jersey linen.

这些多功能单品让衣橱真正实现四季通用。

These are the versatile pieces that make a wardrobe that actually work season to season.

Quince 直接与顶级工厂合作，省去中间商环节，因此你无需为品牌溢价或高端零售店买单，只需为优质服装付费。

Quince works directly with top factories and cuts out the middleman, so you're not paying for brand markup or fancy retail stores, just paying for that quality clothing.

他们只与符合精湛工艺和道德生产严格标准的工厂合作。

And they only partner with factories that meet the rigorous standards for craftsmanship and ethical production.

伙计们，你们还记得我回家时提到的赢家吗？我用Quince为我回家过节时挑选了很棒的夹克和毛衣。

Guys, you heard me talk about the winner when I was going home, how I used Quince to get an awesome winner get up their jackets and sweaters when I went home for the holidays.

但我住在佛罗里达，现在是时候为我的衣橱开启新一季的升级了。

But I live in Florida, so now it's time to start that next evolution of the year for my wardrobe.

我正在查看他们的衬衫。

I'm checking out their shirts.

我正在浏览他们的T恤，他们的网站导航非常有趣，选择丰富。

I'm checking out their tees, and their website is super fun to navigate with so many options.

你们现在就必须去Quince看看。

So you gotta go to Quince and check it out right now.

前往 quince.com/crypto101，享受免费配送和365天无理由退换。

Go to quince.com/crypto101 for free shipping and three hundred and sixty five day returns.

整整一年的时间让你打造属于自己的衣橱并爱上它，你一定会的。

That's a full year to build your wardrobe and love it, and you will.

现在在加拿大也可购买了。

Now available in Canada too.

别再将就那些不耐用的衣服了。

Don't keep settling for clothes that don't last.

前往 quince.com/crypto101，享受免费配送和365天无理由退货。

Go to quince, quince.com/crypto101 for free shipping and three hundred and sixty five day returns.

Quince.com/crypto101。

Quince dot com slash crypto one zero one.

好了，各位。

Alright, everybody.

欢迎回到 Crypto 101 播客。

Welcome back to the Crypto 101 podcast.

今天我们为大家准备了一场精彩的节目。

We have an awesome show for you today.

Brendan 终于回来了，他回来是因为我们要紧急分析一下：比特币是否已经触底？

Brendan is finally back with us, and he's back with us because we have an urgent technical analysis look at is Bitcoin bottoming?

图表看起来非常好，我们将在节目开头与大家分享大量相关数据。

The charts are looking really, really well, and we have a lot of facts around that that we're gonna share with you at the top of the show.

然后我们将直接深入技术分析，和布伦丹一起向您展示图表传递的信息。

Then we're gonna dive right into the technical analysis with Brendan to show you what the charts are telling us.

接着我们会快速聊聊一些关于山寨币的有趣动态，以及万事达卡在加密领域发布的另一项公告。

And then we have some cool quick hitters around altcoins and another Mastercard announcement in the crypto space.

所以，布伦丹，欢迎回到节目。

So Brendan, welcome back to the show.

我们已经有几周没见到你了。

It's been a couple of weeks since we've seen you.

我们知道你一直在深入研究，这段时间加密市场与其他市场相比表现强劲，尤其是在市场波动期间。

We know you've been deep diving into the research and it's been really interesting strong crypto markets compared to the other, the other markets out there during this time of, volatility.

欢迎回到节目，你最近怎么样？

So welcome back to the show, and how are doing?

老兄，回来真好。

Dude, it's good to be back.

我知道已经太久没来了。

I know it's been a little bit too long.

我超爱做这些节目。

I love doing these shows.

你们很多人 probably 能看出来。

A lot of you can probably tell.

有时候在做这些回顾节目时，我会特别激动。

Sometimes I get pretty fired up while we're on these rundown episodes.

但很高兴能回来，老兄。

But I'm glad to be back, man.

这段时间不仅我们这边忙，整个加密领域也都特别忙。

It's been a busy time, not only over here on our side, but just a busy time to be in crypto.

你知道的，我们一直在坚持做播客。

You know, we've still been hammering out the podcast.

就像你说的，一直在做大量研究。

And like you said, been doing a lot of research.

所以我认为今天我们有一些非常重大、重要且有趣的讨论点，我们很期待与大家分享。

And so I think we have some really big, important, interesting talking points today that we're excited to bring to all of you.

而且，我们再次强调，这些内容完全是免费的。

And, again, we like to do these completely for free.

所以如果你喜欢、享受这些内容，不妨去看看我们的其他内容。

So if you like it, you enjoy it, check out our our other content.

去我们的YouTube频道关注我们。

Check us out on YouTube.

如果你在某个播客平台，别忘了给我们点赞、订阅和留下评价。

Leave us a like, a subscribe, a review if you're on one of the podcast platforms.

好了，我们来深入聊聊吧，Tivo，因为我觉得我们最近看到的一个重要趋势就是加密货币板块的出色表现。

And, you know, let's dive in here, Tivo, because I think one of the the big things that we've been seeing is just outperformance from the crypto sector.

即使在制作这段内容时，我们的表现也非常好。

We've been doing really well even at the time of making this.

比特币涨至约74,000美元，以太坊突破2,300美元，Solana突破94美元，XRP重回1.5美元以上。

Bitcoin breaking up to around 74,000, ETH breaking through 2,300, Solana breaking through $94, XRP back above a dollar and 50¢.

你同时也看到了一些与之相伴的大型山寨币突破。

And you've seen some really big altcoin breakouts alongside this.

你知道，Hyperliquid的价格又回升到了接近40美元。

You know, Hyperliquid pushing back up to almost $40.

我看到Tau的价格涨到了大约300美元。

I saw Tau pushing up through about $300.

因此，所有山寨币都出现了相当稳健的回报和强劲的上涨走势，这正是我们当然乐于见到的，因为我们既喜欢比特币，也喜欢山寨币。

And so altcoins all across the board here seeing pretty solid returns and pretty solid movement to the upside, which is something that, you know, we obviously love to see because we love both Bitcoin and alt over here.

但现在进入市场是个不错的时间。

But pretty good time to be in the market.

如果你在过去六个月左右一直观望，现在才重新关注，我们知道，我们之前稍微提过这一点，Tivo，说：嘿。

I think if you've sat out for the last six or so months and you're just now tuning back in, know, you we've been referencing this a little bit, TiVo, saying, hey.

看起来市场正在回暖。

It looks like the market's warming up.

幕后确实出现了一些迹象，这正是把我们带到当前这个极其重要阶段的原因。

There's certainly some signs happening behind the scenes, and that's kinda bringing us to where we're at right now, which is a really, really important zone.

非常兴奋能回来和你一起深入探讨这一切。

So stoked to be able to be back and dive through all of this with you.

是的。

Yeah.

有你真是太好了。

And it's great to have you.

我们再也找不到比你更合适的人了。

There's no one else we'd rather have.

在进入图表之前，我先说几点。

Just a couple points here before we get into the charts.

我觉得最好从我们周五最初开始节目的地方说起，因为当时我提到了这是周五的同一则推文。

I thought it'd be good to start back where we we actually start started off our show with this on Friday because I brought up the fact that this is the the same tweet from Friday.

在周四晚上到周五凌晨，加密货币总市值增加了500亿美元。

It was overnight on Thursday into Friday, you know, 50,000,000,000 got added to the crypto market cap.

我在节目中告诉了Brendan，我当时和一些朋友在一起，收到了一些警报，比特币在上涨，以太坊也在涨，甚至连Pudgy Penguins也在涨。

And I told everybody on the show, Brendan, that I was I was out with some friends and we were getting some alerts, you know, Bitcoin was rising, Ethereum, even Pudgy Penguins.

我们都觉得，哦，看啊，我的朋友们都在说，嘿，你看，加密货币有点反弹了。

And we were all like, oh, look, like my friends were all, you know, hey, look, crypto's rallying a little bit.

我当时想，哦，我不确定。

And I was like, oh, I don't know.

可能波动性或成交量撑不住。

Might not, you know, the volatile or the the volume might not hold.

可能是成交量偏低。

It might be low volume.

然后到了周五早上，它又会跌回去，因为传统上进入周末时，市场都会避险，尤其是在出现高波动性事件时。

And then overnight, you know, Friday morning, it'll drop back down because, you know, traditionally going into the weekends, markets go risk off, especially when there's high volatility events.

但这次情况并非如此。

But that wasn't the case.

它稳住了。

It held.

强势延续到周末，然后继续上涨。

Went strong into the weekend, and then it continued.

整个周末一直到今天，在这场战争引发的市场波动中，行情持续走强，这让我们想起了那句老话：为空头们祈祷吧。

It continued over the weekend into today during this wartime volatility, which brings up our favorite saying, prayers for the bears.

过去24小时内，有超过3亿美元的空头头寸被清算，布伦丹。

Over $300,000,000 in shorts liquidated in the past twenty four hours, Brendan.

所以你得开始留意那些人，他们之前还说，哦，加密货币很弱。

So you got to start looking out for all those people that, you know, said, oh, Crypto's weak.

现在正处于熊市。

It's in a bear market.

现在中东那边爆发了战争。

Now there's a there's a war over in The Middle East.

价格会暴跌到归零。

It's gonna go it's gonna go crashing down to zero.

但事实根本不是这样，因为我们已经看到比特币和加密货币，就像你提到的，其他那些山寨币，整体上一直表现强劲。

That that truly isn't the case because we've seen how Bitcoin, crypto, just kind of like you mentioned, all those other alts, like crypto in general has just been strong.

相比股市、标普500、纳斯达克，它表现强劲；相比黄金和白银，它也同样强劲。

Strong compared to the stock market, the S and P, the NASDAQ, strong compared to gold, strong compared to silver.

它真的在中东战争的冲击中挺了过来，我想不到有几个人能预料到这一点。

It's really just weathered this storm with with the war in The Middle East that I don't think, you know, many people predicted at all.

你知道，通常比特币是被当作风险偏好型资产来交易的。

You know, you normally, you know, Bitcoin's traded like a risk on assets.

所以你会觉得，在战争这种情况下，波动性越高，比特币的风险也可能越大。

So you think, the higher the volatility, like the more risky that Bitcoin could have gone in the circumstances of war.

但我们也要明白，比特币和加密货币是率先下跌的。

But we also got to know that Bitcoin, Crypto led the way down.

我们在这档节目里已经谈了好几个星期了，Brendan，基本面很强，基本面很强，但价格走势却没跟上。

We were talking on the show for how many weeks, Brendan, the fundamentals are strong, the fundamentals are strong and the price action's not following.

而现在你看价格走势，本来以为它该走的方向，结果却恰恰相反。

And and now look at the, you know, the price action where you think it should go now, it's it's going the opposite way as well.

所以比特币和加密货币的表现确实有一些非常有趣的现象。

So really just some fascinating facts out there of how Bitcoin and crypto has performed.

所以我很想听听你对此的总体看法。

So I I'd love to give your take on that just in general.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，如果你看过去一周，加密货币在大多数情况下都是表现最好的资产。

I mean, if you look for really the last week, crypto has been the top performing asset for the most part.

把它和股票市场中的大盘股、小盘股，或者金属相比，其实都无关紧要。

You compare it against large caps, small caps in the equities market, metals, it doesn't really matter.

加密货币表现极为出色，尤其是比特币，现在你开始看到山寨币也出现了强劲的上涨行情。

Crypto has been performing exceptionally well, you know, especially Bitcoin, and now you're starting to see a really good rally with with altcoins as well.

如果可以的话，我其实可以快速共享一下我的屏幕，Tivo。

If I can, you know, maybe just share my screen actually real fast, Tivo.

是的。

Yeah.

我不知道我们是否要等一下再做这个，但我很乐意打开比特币的图表来具体指出这一点。

I don't know if, you know, we wanna wait to to do this, but I'd be happy to go into the Bitcoin chart and kinda highlight this.

你知道，我注意到的一件事是，如果我们在这里做个简单的对比，比特币现在已连续第七天收涨，这相当了不起。

You know, one of the things that I noticed is that if we just do a little bit of a side by side here, you know, Bitcoin is now it's working on its seventh green day in a row, which is a pretty big deal.

你知道，我们看到它上涨了大约12.5%。

You know, we've seen it rally about 12 and a half percent to the upside.

而且，过去一周的每一天都是上涨的。

And, again, every single day in the last week's been green.

所以如果我们去看看，比如纳斯达克或者标普500，就拿标普500来说吧。

So if we go and we look at, like, NASDAQ or the S and P, for example, you know, let's just look at the S and P.

你知道，无论你是看小盘股还是大盘股，情况都是相反的。

You know, whether you're looking at small caps or large caps, it's the opposite.

你知道，从上个星期一到现在这七天里，标普500一直在下跌、表现疲软，我们看到那里出现了负回报率，而加密货币则实现了正回报率。

You know, the last seven days, really going back to last Monday, to where we're at, it's been falling off and underperforming, and we've seen a negative return rate over there, whereas cryptos had a positive return rate.

所以过去一周左右，标普500大约下跌了3.5%到4%，但比特币却上涨了近12%。

So you saw about a, you know, three and a half, 4% decline, roughly speaking, over the last week or so with with the S and P, but you've seen Bitcoin moving up almost 12% to the upside.

因此，你不仅看到了这种反向对比——比特币和加密货币在上涨，而股票在下跌，而且你开始看到一种极其显著的超额表现，这正是我一直期待的。

So not only are you getting this inverted comparison where Bitcoin and crypto is moving up while equities are moving down, but what you're starting to get is just a severe level of outperformance, which is what I think we've been waiting for.

因为在之前的几个月里，发生的情况恰恰相反。

Because in prior months, you've seen the opposite happen.

你已经看到比特币和加密货币的表现逊于股票、金属和其他所有资产。

You've seen Bitcoin and crypto underperforming equities and metals and everything else.

而现在，即使你转向黄金，大致来看过去一周左右，整体趋势仍是下行。

And now, you know, even if you switch it over to gold, again, roughly speaking over the last week or so, for the most part, trending to the downside here.

比特币正攀升至数月来的高位，甚至是月度高点。

Bitcoin's pushing up to, like, multi month highs or, monthly highs.

黄金则回落至接近月度低点，自二月中下旬以来从未见过如此低的水平，而今天我们也看到它重新回到这一水平。

Gold's pushing back down towards almost monthly lows, you know, the lowest level that it's seen since mid to late February, and that's what we see it kind of coming back into today.

所以，无论你是将它与大型股相比，我认为你甚至可以看看罗素指数，问问小盘股的情况如何？

So whether you're comparing it to, again, large cap equities, I think you could even go to, like, the Russell and say, well, what about small caps?

总体而言，比特币在这里表现优异。

Again, Bitcoin outperforming here for the most part.

它正全面超越几乎所有资产，持续上涨，连续一周以上每天都是阳线，价格回升至2月4日以来的最高水平，这真是个好消息。

Beating just about everything as it's pushing back to the upside, pushing almost a week plus of nothing but green daily candles working its way up to its highest price since February 4, which is a great thing to see.

所以我认为，你希望看到这种相对强势的表现，尤其是在最近几个月比特币表现疲软的情况下。

So I think you want to see this kind of relative strength, especially when in recent months, you've had Bitcoin underperforming.

你知道，无论股市发生什么，乘以两到三倍，就是加密市场正在经历的情况。

You know, whatever happens to equities, multiply it by two or three, and that's what's happening to the crypto market.

而且，你知道，这可能是个转折点，因为很多人看加密货币时会说，它实际上是先行者。

And, you know, this could be the turning point because a lot of people like to look at crypto and say, well, it's actually a first mover.

所以比特币和加密货币最先开始反转，然后其他资产才陆续放缓并随之反转。

So Bitcoin and crypto started to turn around first, and then you had everything else starting to slow down and turn around afterwards.

而现在我们开始看到的是相反的情况：比特币从底部回升，出现了许多可观的涨幅。

Well, now what we're starting to see is from the opposite perspective, Bitcoin starting to turn around from the bottom side up and see a lot of good gains.

所以人们开始说，好吧。

And so people are saying, okay.

这会不会是其他资产未来走势的先行信号或预兆？

Well, could this be a front runner or a precursor to what's to come for everything else?

我认为，无论如何，你可以看到，加密货币相对于所有这些不同资产类别来说都严重超卖了，即使考虑到最近的基本面新闻和发展，它也一直被严重低估。

I think regardless, you can look at this and say crypto has been too oversold compared to to all these different asset classes, and it's been too oversold just period despite the fundamental news and developments that that's been happening.

我常说，基本面和技术面之间出现了脱节，我认为我们已经到达了一个临界点，再往下走就完全说不通了。

I have the saying that there's been a disconnect between what's happening in the fundamentals and the technicals, and I think we reached the point where it just did not make sense for us to go too much lower.

一段时间以来，我一直说，我们可能还会有一波下行。

Now for a while, I've said, I think we can have the possibility of maybe one more leg down.

你知道，我仍然把这种可能性放在考虑范围内，因为我们还没有完全突破下行趋势，我马上就会展示这意味什么。

You know, I'd still rule that on the table because we have not completely broken the downtrend, and I'll show us what that means here in just a second.

但我们还没有完全突破下行趋势，不过情况已经开始看起来相当不错，尽管还有一些不确定的因素。

But we can't we have not completely broken the downtrend yet, but things are starting to look pretty good with maybe a few things that are still up in the air.

所以如果你现在参与加密货币，你一定会喜欢你所看到的。

And so I think if you're in crypto here, you have to like what you're seeing.

你必须喜欢的是，我们不仅表现优异、稳步上升，而且正在尝试突破，还出现了这么多反转信号。

You have to like that we're not only outperforming and doing well and trying to break out and you're getting all of these, like, reversal signs.

你还要喜欢背后的基本面。

You gotta like the fundamentals alongside this.

良好的基本面，良好的技术面。

So good fundamentals, good technicals.

总体而言，我真的很喜欢我们目前看到的这一切。

Overall, I really do like what we're what we're seeing here.

你知道吗，有件事很奇怪？

You know what's wild?

有多少人到了三十岁，突然觉得一切都比以前更难了？

How many guys hit their thirties and suddenly everything feels harder than it used to?

你的精力下降了，注意力也不如从前，健身进展也停滞了。

Your energy dips, the focus isn't there anymore and gym progress stalls.

对话几乎总是会转向睾酮的话题。

The conversation almost always turns to testosterone.

所以我花了很多时间深入研究这个问题，不只是看标题新闻，而是查阅了实际的研究、成分和数据，还与那些走过TRT道路的人交流过。

So I've spent a lot of time digging into this, not just the headlines, but actual studies, ingredients, research, and talking to people who've gone down the TRT road.

一旦你真正了解传统TRT涉及的内容，就会发现它包括终身注射、抑制身体自然分泌、影响生育能力，这些真的会让很多人犹豫。

And once you really understand what traditional TRT involves, it includes lifelong injections with needles, shutting down your body's natural production, fertility concerns, and it really makes guys pause.

这就是为什么我一直关注Mars Men。

That's why I've been paying attention to Mars Men.

它被设计为TRT的替代方案，无需注射，不含合成物质，只包含一系列经过充分研究的成分，比如通卡阿里、锌和硼，用于支持健康的睾酮功能。

It's designed as a TRT alternative, not injections, not synthetics, just a stack of well researched ingredients like Tonga Ali, zinc, and boron that are used to support healthy testosterone function.

我了解过这些成分的科学依据， personally 认识一些正在使用它的人，他们说自己的精力变得非常稳定。

I've seen the science behind these ingredients, and I personally know guys using it who say they love how steady their energy feels.

没有波动，没有低谷，也不用打针。

No spikes, no crashes, and no needles.

限时优惠，我们的听众可享受终身50美元折扣，包邮，并赠送三份礼品，前往 mengotomars.com 了解更多。

For a limited time, our listeners get 50 off for life plus free shipping and three free gifts at men go to mars.com.

Mars Men 在美国制造，经过第三方检测，并提供90天无理由退款保证。

Mars Men is made in The USA, third party tested, and backed by a ninety day money back guarantee.

超过91%的用户报告称精力有所提升，用户评价足以说明一切。

Over 91% of its users report higher energy levels, and the reviews speak for themselves.

再次提醒，限时优惠，我们的听众可享受终身50%折扣，包邮，并赠送三份礼品，前往 mengotomars.com 了解更多。

And again, for a limited time, our listeners get 50% off for life, free shipping, and three free gifts at men go to mars.com.

前往 mengotomars.com，享受终身50%折扣、包邮和三份免费赠品。

That's men go to mars.com for 50% off for life, free shipping, and three free gifts.

下单后，请务必告诉他们，是Crypto one zero one推荐你的。

After checkout, make sure you tell them that Crypto one zero one sent you.

从下跌趋势的角度来看，你知道，这时候人们可能会有点沮丧。

From a downtrend perspective, you know, this is where, you know, people might get a little frustrated.

这里的下跌趋势仍然保持完好。

The downtrend here is still intact.

对吧？

Right?

我们大致画了一条趋势线，然后说，嘿。

We kind of draw a a very rough trend line here and say, hey.

我们仍然看到，你知道的，历史新高、更低的低点、更低的高点、更低的低点。

We're still seeing, you know, all time highs, lower lows, lower highs, lower lows.

我们还没有突破到更高的高点。

We really have not broken out to a higher high yet.

所以总体来看，从技术上讲，下跌趋势仍然保持完好。

So overall, the downtrend itself is, technically speaking, still intact.

我们正在突破更高的局部高点，但甚至还没有触及之前的盘整区间。

We're breaking the higher local highs, but we haven't even contested the prior consolidation range here.

事实上，我认为我们现在看到的只是早期反转的最低限度，你需要看到更高的局部高点、更高的局部低点，突破这些短期移动平均线，趋势出现一些中断，在超卖水平上反弹，还有很多类似的现象。

In fact, I think what we're seeing right now is the bare minimums of an early stage reversal, which is where you need to see higher local highs, higher local lows, getting above those short term moving averages, a little bit of a break in trend, rebounding over, off of oversold levels, a lot of things like that.

而我们确实看到了很多这些迹象，这些都是很好的短期或早期信号，表明这些情况正在发生。

And we are seeing a lot of those which are good short term or early signs that this stuff is happening.

然而，从大局来看，你仍然需要看看这一点，说：嘿。

However, in the big picture, you still have to kinda look at this and say, hey.

总体来看，下行趋势在很大程度上仍然保持完好，我们尚未突破这一趋势。

Well, the overall downtrend is still for the most part intact here, and we're yet to break out of that.

所以我不想把这说得太悲观，但这是第一点。

So I don't wanna make that sound too bearish, but there's that which is point number one.

第二点是，总的来说，我们在比特币上看到的是，它已经跌破并形成了一个上升通道或看跌旗形，通过上升通道。

Point number two, which is just to say, you know, what we've seen here for the most part on Bitcoin is that it's broken down and formed the rising channel or a bear flag via a rising channel.

所以我们经历了最初的下跌、看跌旗形、再下跌、看跌旗形、再下跌、看跌旗形、再下跌。

So we've had, like, the initial move down, bear flag, move down, bear flag, move down, bear flag, move down.

而这也是我对比特币唯一剩下的担忧。

And this is really the only fear I would say I have left with Bitcoin.

这可以说是空头的最后一道防线，因为到目前为止，价格走势看起来像是一个上升通道。

This is kinda like the final defense from the bears is that you're seeing price action that mimics a rising channel so far.

它并不完美，但确实模仿了我们在之前一些盘整阶段中多次看到的模式，这些阶段之后往往会出现更深的下跌。

It's not, you know, perfect, but it's certainly mimicking what we've seen a lot during some of these prior, consolidation phases before a deeper move down.

所以，这唯一让我犹豫不决的原因是，我们经历了下跌、上升通道、更高高点和更高低点，却始终没有出现明确的突破。

So this is the only thing that's holding me back that's maybe a little bit hesitant is the fact that we've kind of had this move down, rising channel, higher highs, higher lows, but no kind of clear breakout.

你看到高点略微抬高，但突破后缺乏持续的跟进动力。

You're getting slightly higher highs, not able to see a lot of follow through on the breakouts.

我们刚刚勉强触及一个新的更高高点，随后就出现了急剧的抛售，价格再次回落至下方。

We kind of just barely hit a new higher high, and then we see a steep sell off, back to the downside.

因此，我在想，嘿。

And so I'm looking at this saying, you know, hey.

如果这又是一次空头回抽配合熊市旗形的走势，我们就需要在这个水平开始保持警惕。

If this is gonna be another bear pull, bear flag combination like this, You know, we need to start being careful at this level.

如果我们能突破并确认这个形态，比特币就处于一个非常有利的反转位置。

If we get the breakout and we validate this, Bitcoin's in a really good spot for a reversal.

确实如此。

It really, really is.

我一直大力主张，我认为在这样的熊市周期中，波动性可能会降低。

I've been a big advocate that I think that we can see less volatility during this kind of bear cycle.

我认为我们不会看到70%的回撤。

I don't think we're gonna see a 70% drawdown.

我认为我们不会看到80%的回撤。

I don't think we're gonna see an 80% drawdown.

在整体下行趋势被打破之前，我认为可能还有一波下行，但随着我们看到越来越多的价格行为，这种情况似乎变得越来越不可能。

Until the overall downtrend breaks, I'd say, you know, maybe one more leg down is a possibility, but it looks like that's becoming less and less viable or or likely the more price action we're getting.

只要我们能够确认并突破这个下降通道或上升通道的顶部，我认为比特币的处境非常好。

So long as we are able to invalidate and break through the top of this falling chan or this rising channel, I think Bitcoin's in a great spot.

我们在这里看到的其他迹象包括：相对强弱指数正在复苏，以及该指标从有史以来第二最超卖的位置反弹，MACD也从有史以来最超卖的位置开始回升。

You know, the other things that we've seen here are, the relative strength index recovering and this thing coming off of its second most oversold point ever, the MACD recovering off of its most oversold point ever of all time.

你还看到恐惧与贪婪指数从历史低点回升，所有这些通常都表明，嗯。

And you've seen the fear and greed index recovering off of all time lows and all these things that typically do indicate that, you know, hey.

如果你还没触底，那也已经非常接近了。

If you haven't hit a bottom, you're mighty, mighty close to it.

因此，从历史上看，这些区域往往是机会所在，这也是我的看法。

And so this has historically been areas of opportunity, which is the way that I view this.

最后提一下，Tivo，我马上再把你拉回来。

Final note here, Tivo, and I'll loop you back in.

有太多话题要聊了。

Just so much to talk about.

以太坊在这里。

ETH here.

以太坊和大多数主流山寨币，大部分时间都引领了这波上涨，今天它们都出现了巨大突破。

ETH and a lot of the altcoins, the large cap altcoins, have been leading the run for the most part, and we're seeing massive breakthroughs on those today.

以太坊突破了自二月初以来一直持续的盘整区间，强势击穿了上方阻力。

Ethereum breaking through this consolidation that it's been in since early February, destroying the ceiling of this, breaking through with authority.

这正是突破时你希望看到的景象。

This is exactly what you wanna see on a breakout.

你看到的是良好的波动性，价格向上 explosive 表现。

You're seeing good volatility, explosive price action to the upside.

我预计，如果我们在一天结束时回到这个水平，会看到相当可观的成交量，这也是我最后关注的点。

And I would imagine here that if we come back to this towards the end of the day, you're gonna see a decent level of volume, which is the final thing that I'm looking for.

如果你去看索拉纳，会看到类似的情况。

If you're going over to Solana, you're seeing a similar story.

这个币的价格正在攀升至自二月初以来的最高水平，试图突破阻力位，类似于以太坊，但力度稍弱。

This thing's pushing up to the highest level of price action that we've seen since early February, trying to break through the ceiling of this similar to Ethereum, a little bit less authority.

你看到 BNB 也有类似的价格表现，突破了更高的高点。

You're seeing similar price action with BNB, breaking out the higher highs here.

这些大型币种大多如此。

A lot of these large caps.

我认为你还可以看看 Hyperliquid，它正好处于加密货币市值前十名的边缘。

I think you can also look at Hyperliquid, which is right on the edge of a top 10 crypto by market cap.

它就像走钢丝一样，就在市值第十到第十三名之间徘徊。

It kind of, you know, balance beams on that line, you know, right around 10 to 13.

但如果你看看Hyperliquid以及它目前的走势，这又是我们节目中多次讨论过的另一个市值非常大的项目，目前价格已上涨至自11月以来的最高点，接近40美元水平。

But if you look at Hyperliquid and what's happening to this thing, again, another very large market cap project that we've talked a lot about on the show, breaking up here to the highest point that it's seen since November, coming back to almost the $40 level.

虽然不算大型项目，但我们一直频繁提及。

Not quite a large cap, but one that we have talked about a lot.

Sky，市值相当大，接近20亿美元，从8月以来的最高点回落。

Sky, fairly large, almost $2,000,000,000 coming off of the highest point that it's seen since August.

Tau，另一个我们经常讨论的项目，最近一周半内涨幅高达60%到70%，走势呈爆炸式上升。

Tau, another one that we talk about, going parabolic here as it's up, you know, I don't know what, 60 to 70% in the last week and a half.

因此，加密货币市场正重新获得动力和信心，这正是我们希望看到的。

And so crypto is really starting to get some some speed and some confidence back into the market, which is what we like to see.

所以，你听好了。

So, you know, listen.

我们现在正处于一波强劲的连胜之中。

We're up on a big winning streak right now.

比特币已经连续七到八天收涨。

Again, Bitcoin green about seven to eight days in a row.

很多这些大盘币也是同样的情况。

Same thing with a lot of these large caps.

我们希望看到更多的持续上涨。

We wanna see more follow through.

我认为这些大盘币的目标是回到之前的盘整区间。

I think the goal here for a lot of these large caps is to get back to their prior consolidation ranges.

对于比特币来说，那就是8万美元左右。

For Bitcoin, that's in the 80 thousands.

目标区间大致在8万到9万美元之间。

That's kind of the idea target range is 80 to 90 k.

对于以太坊，可能会回升到2.8万或2.9万美元，甚至更高一些。

For Ethereum, it's probably gonna be up closer to maybe 28, 29 if not even a little higher.

对于Solana，将会回到1.20到1.30美元，甚至可能更高一些。

For Solana, it's gonna be back towards $1.20, $1.30, maybe even a little bit higher than that.

如果我们能实现这次突破并看到持续上涨，那就好了。

And, you know, if we are able to get this breakout and see some follow through, listen.

我认为市场已经过度下跌了。

I think the markets have been so overextended to the downside.

我觉得这些加密货币再上涨百分之十、二十甚至三十，也并不疯狂。

I don't think it's crazy for us to see, you know, maybe another ten, twenty, 30% move up on a lot of these coins.

牛市大举进攻啊。

Man, bulls on parade.

难以置信。

Unbelievable.

技术分析太棒了。

Great TA.

它们正在全面接管。

They're taking over.

那里技术分析真棒。

Great TA there.

Hyperliquid。

Hyperliquid.

把Hyperliquid调出来。

Pull up Hyperliquid there.

可能得设置黄金交叉提醒。

Might have to put it on the Golden Cross alert.

我们快接近了。

We it's getting close.

我的意思是，你之前在这里看到过短期的黄金交叉。

I mean, you saw the the short term Golden Cross down in here a little bit earlier.

哎呀。

And oops.

就在这里。

Right in here.

从那以后一直表现得很好。

And it's been beautiful ever since then.

你一度突破了50日均线，然后回落，又在那儿反弹了。

You kind of broke above the 50, came back down, bounced off of it.

它正在突破200日均线，你能看到这两个短期均线正呈抛物线状迅速向上逼近200日均线。

It's clearing the 200, and you see the both of these short term moving averages racing parabolically up to the 200 here.

我的意思是，当你看到这种交叉时，上次我猜你甚至都没有真正经历过上次，但通常这都是长期动能转向上行的强烈信号。

I mean, when you get that crossover, the last time I guess, you didn't even really have a last time, but that's typically a really good indicator of of long term momentum shifting upwards.

完全正确。

100%.

你知道，我们已经有几周没请你上节目了，因为你最近在你的社群里特别忙，尤其是那个技术分析交易课程。

You know, we haven't had you on the show in a couple weeks because you just have been so busy inside your community, especially with, you know, the the TA trading course.

上次你来的时候，我们做了延长版的培训，你的学员群体刚刚开放。

And last time we had you on, we had the extended training session and your cohort was open.

我当时就说，我知道价格走势还没达到我们期望的位置。

And I said, was like, I know the the price action hasn't been where we wanted it.

市场确实有点平淡，甚至让人觉得无聊，但现在正是你该学习、积累知识的时候。

It's been a little boring to just even sad, but you know, now's the time where you wanna, you know, get that education and get that knowledge.

所以，所有报名上一期学员的人都觉得这笔钱花得值，因为他们能和你一起研究那些低点，学习交易中的动能以及你所教授的所有细节。

So anybody that signed up in that last cohort has gotten their money well worth it to kind of study those lows with you, learn the momentum of the trading and the ins and outs of everything that you teach.

所以下次你的学员班开放时，我们当然会再邀请你回来，并附上链接。

So next time your cohort is open, we'll obviously have you back on and bring a link.

但我相信所有报名的人对这次学习体验都感到非常非常满意，尤其是开始课程后看到了一些非常精彩的行情走势。

But I'm sure everybody that signed up for that has been super, super happy of the learning and just getting to see some really cool price action once they started the course.

为了继续保持这种势头，我们实际上要聊聊比特币。

To keep on the momentum train, we actually have a Bitcoin.

我们会先谈比特币，然后转到以太坊，再接着讲索拉纳。

We're gonna talk about Bitcoin, then we're gonna go to Ethereum, then we're gonna go to Solana.

关于比特币，我们现在看到交易所的比特币库存再次开始偏低。

So the first one with Bitcoin is we're starting to see the exchanges once again are getting a little low on Bitcoin.

这种情况时有发生，可能成为短期逼空行情的促成因素之一，这么说吧。

And this happens from time to time and it can kind of be, you know, for the short squeeze, it can be an ingredient in the pot, if you will.

你知道，如果比特币供应不足，最终可能会引发空头逼空。

You know, if there's not enough Bitcoin to go around and and, you know, eventually that can lead to a short squeeze.

所以这是一个需要关注的信号。

So something to monitor.

这个周末我在时间线上看到过这种说法。

I saw that kind of float around the timeline this weekend.

然后我们继续讲以太坊。

And then we'll move on to Ethereum.

我们周五聊过，布伦丹，关于以太坊质押ETF上线的事，以及你如何有机会参与这个ETF。

So we talked about on Friday, Brendan, how the Ethereum staking ETF went live and talked about how, you know, there's an opportunity to get the ETF.

它本质上是通过质押产品派发股息，并且交易表现非常出色。

It's paying out basically a dividend with the staking product and it started to trade really well.

贝莱德的质押ETF交易量达到了数千万美元，我们会持续关注。

Tens of millions of dollars was being traded for the BlackRock staking ETF, something that we'll continue to monitor.

但我这里有一段视频，是贝莱德数字资产负责人说，这个ETF可能是以太坊的万能钥匙。

But I had a clip here just to talk about the staking ETF from BlackRock, head of digital assets saying that it is or could be the silver bullet for Ethereum.

我们先听一下这段内容，然后我再展示你提供的关于以太坊的Token Terminal数据。

So let's take a listen to this and then we will bring up the stat that you put in for token terminal on Ethereum.

是的，我觉得这种说法非常到位。

Yeah, I think that's a great way of framing it.

在某些方面，我们思考一下ETP对比特币所起到的作用。

In some respects, we think about what the ETPs did for Bitcoin.

对于许多投资者来说，ETP几乎就是一种银弹，让他们能够以极其便捷、即用型、低成本的方式接触比特币，但最初的以太坊ETP并没有包含质押收益，因此情况并不完全相同。

That was pretty close to a silver bullet for a lot of investors in terms of being able to access Bitcoin in a super convenient turnkey accessible low cost way wasn't quite the same for the original ETPs and Ether because we didn't have the staking yield capture as part of it.

因此，以太坊ETP最初推出时也引起了巨大的反响。

So obviously, there was tremendous resonance to the initial launch of the Ether ETPs as well.

以太坊是历史上第三个在AUM（资产管理规模）上达到100亿美元的ETF，仅次于Ibid和FBTC，但它们确实存在这一限制。

And Ethereum was the third fastest ETF in history to reach 10,000,000,000 in AUM after I bid and FBTC, but they did have this limitation.

而现在，由于加入了质押收益，它变得与比特币ETP非常相似，成为许多投资者理想的便捷投资工具。

And so now with staking in it, it becomes much closer like Bitcoin ETPs were to a silver bullet for a lot of investors in terms of this super convenient exposure vehicle.

是的，我觉得这是个

Yeah, think that's a

就在那儿。

There it is.

所以，我的意思是，我们之前也讨论过这一点，一年前当这件事还在初期阶段时，即使没有质押收益，ETF这种结构正如他所说，通过ETB，为许多基金打开了接触渠道，因为它们无法直接在Coinbase上购买比特币或以太坊。

So, I mean, and we this is something that we've talked about, I mean, a year ago when this was kind of in in the the weeds of happening, even without the staking when it launched it, you know, the ETF vehicle, like he said with the ETBs, it opens up the ability for a lot of funds to get exposure because they can't go onto Coinbase and just buy Bitcoin or Ethereum.

他们必须通过这些不同的产品来操作。

They have to do it through these different products.

现在有了分红，也许这对一些人来说更有吸引力了。

And now with the dividend, it's like, oh, maybe that's more interesting to some.

这将允许一些基金，比如分红基金，遵循其规则。

It's gonna allow for the rules of some funds like a dividend fund.

你知道，我确信他们会评估是否希望将加密货币质押的分红纳入投资组合，但这提供了一个可考虑的选项。

You know, don't I'm sure they're they're gonna evaluate to see if they wanna put crypto staking, you know, dividends inside that portfolio, but it gives gives an option for review.

我猜测一些基金会考虑这一点，并可能开始在那里投资。

And I would I would guess that some are gonna take take that into account and and maybe start investing there.

因此，这确实为大量资本打开了大门。

So it really does unlock the door for a lot of capital.

然后你提到了一些关于以太坊的事情，你想分享一下。

And then you pulled up something around Ethereum as well that you wanted to share.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，正是如此。

I mean, exactly.

说到以太坊，我们来看一下。

When it comes to ETH here, let's see.

是的。

Yeah.

这是图表。

This is the chart.

完美。

Perfect.

谢谢你的分享。

Thank you for this.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，以太坊表现太出色了。

I mean, Ethereum's crushing it.

我提到这一点，是因为这里两个主要的Layer 1，除了比特币之外，表现都非常出色。

And I brought this up because both of the layer ones here both of the major layer ones, you know, outside of Bitcoin are just crushing it here.

我们总是想再次强调这一点，因为技术面和基本面之间一直存在巨大脱节。

And we always like to reiterate this because there's been this huge disconnect between technicals and fundamentals.

我们看到了爆炸式增长，这表明某些东西尚未被充分定价。

And we've seen explosive growth that's saying something is not fully priced in.

对吧？

Right?

你有以太坊。

You have Ethereum.

它显示以太坊在应用TVL、稳定币供应量和代币化现实世界资产市值方面都是排名第一的链。

It says Ethereum is the number one chain in terms of application TVL, stablecoin supply, and tokenized real world asset market cap.

现在，网络正在迎头赶上。

Now the network is catching up.

从整体性能来看，你看到以太坊的交易成本已降至历史最低水平，链上活动则达到历史最高点。

In terms of performance across the board, you see the cost to transact Ethereum is at basically all time lows, and on chain activity is at all time highs.

所以我想要强调这一点，因为前几天我们刚和Sol策略团队的成员进行了一次非常棒的对话，他们对Solana策略或Solana本身非常看多。

So I wanted to highlight that because we just had a really good conversation the other day with members of, Sol strategies, who are in the name, very bullish on Solana strategies or Solana itself.

我们喜欢Solana，而且我接下来马上要展示一张关于Solana的精彩图表。

And we like Solana, and I'm I have a really cool graphic for Solana right after this.

但我提到这一点，是因为Solana正在发生的情况，或者以太坊正在发生的情况是：交易成本和Gas费用达到历史最低水平，同时链上活动指标却创下历史新高。

But I bring this up because what's happening with Solana or what's happening here with Ethereum is that it's seeing record low transaction costs and gas fees and and all these other things while seeing all time high activities metrics.

这真是一个非常有趣的反差。

So it's a really cool disparity.

如果你还记得上一轮牛市，比如2021到2022年那个主要周期，那时候Gas费用有时会高达10美元、20美元、50美元甚至100美元，而且交易还要等很久。

If you remember during the last bull run, you know, let's just say, like, the last major cycle of, like, twenty twenty one, twenty twenty two, there were points where gas fees would be $10, $20, $50, a $100 to do a gas fee, and it would take quite long.

我们现在已经将2021到2022周期的前一次活动峰值翻了一倍。

What we've done is we've actually doubled that prior all time high in activity from the twenty twenty one, twenty twenty two cycle.

我们在将活动量翻倍的同时，把Gas费用降到了1美分以下，甚至接近1美分。

We have doubled that level of activity while bringing gas fees under 1¢ or or around 1¢ or under.

就目前而言，我上周查了一下，平均Gas费用已经低于1美分，这简直不可思议。

As we sit at it right now, I was checking, last week, and it was under 1¢ for the average gas fee, which is incredible.

所以这是一件大事，意味着嘿。

And so this is a big thing saying, hey.

在过去的几年里，我们的活动量翻了一番，同时将Gas费用从10美元、20美元、50美元降低到1美分以下，这在可扩展性方面是一个巨大的成就，表明幕后发生了许多变化。

We've doubled our activity in the last couple years, and we've brought gas fees from $10.20, $50 to under 1¢, which is a massive accomplishment in terms of scalability, and it shows that a lot of things are happening behind the scenes.

因此，增长和可扩展性正在同时发生，这正是你希望看到的。

So there's growth and there's scalability, and both of these are happening at the same time, which is exactly what you wanna see.

所以我们喜欢这一点。

So, we like this.

然后他们继续说，嘿。

And then they go on and they say, hey.

看看TVL。

You know, look at TVL.

看看稳定币供应量。

Look at stablecoin supply.

我们也会关注稳定币，因为这目前是最热门的话题之一。

And we're gonna look at stablecoins too because this has been one of the hottest topics right now.

但如果我们看下一张图，关于Solana的，我想强调一下，以确保我们不是仅仅因为喜欢ETH而吹捧它，因为我们这里对两者都很看好。

But if we can go to the next image, which is on Solana, I wanted to highlight this to make sure that we weren't just shilling, you know, ETH because we're fans of both over here.

我们喜欢两者。

We like both.

我对两者都有投资，投资额几乎相等。

I have exposure to both, almost an equal amount of exposure.

但如果你看这个，Solana已经连续第三十周在去中心化交易所交易量上超越所有一层和二层区块链，这太惊人了。

If But you're looking at this, Solana continues to surpass all layer one and layer two chains in terms of DEX volume for the thirtieth consecutive week, which is crazy.

对吧？

Right?

连续第三十周。

Thirtieth consecutive week in a row.

所以，我们这里看到的情况，也是很多人——尤其是极端主义者——未能理解的：他们认为必须二选一，而实际上，你看到的是这两种区块链以创纪录的活跃度服务于两种不同的用途。

So what we have here and what I think a lot of people fail to understand, especially maximalists, is that it has to be one or the other when in reality, you're seeing them used with record levels of activity for two different purposes.

对吧？

Right?