CRYPTO 101 - 第668集:运用IG北美(Tasty Trade)交易策略应对加密货币市场波动 封面

第668集:运用IG北美(Tasty Trade)交易策略应对加密货币市场波动

Ep. 668 Navigating Crypto Market Volatility with Trading Strategies from IG North America (Tasty Trade)

本集简介

在本期《加密101》播客中,主持人Bryce和Brendan邀请到IG北美首席执行官、交易行业资深人士JJ Kinahan。他们探讨了交易行业的演变、市场波动性以及风险管理和仓位控制的重要性。JJ分享了技术对交易的影响、资产代币化在资产管理中的未来前景,以及针对散户交易者开展教育的必要性。对话还涉及IG北美与Tasty Trade的业务扩展,以及闪电回合的交易偏好与策略讨论。 章节 00:00 JJ Kinahan介绍与市场洞见 02:47 驾驭市场波动与投资策略 05:47 仓位控制与交易中的情绪管理 08:49 交易技术的演进与市场准入 12:03 资产代币化与资产管理的未来 14:55 加密领域的监管挑战与发展路径 17:52 机构采用对加密市场的影响 26:25 理解散户交易者视角 28:19 监管在交易中的角色 30:25 把握市场信心与风险 33:42 加密业务扩展与教育普及 37:00 闪电回合:交易风格与策略 42:20 风险缓释工具Efani Sim卡防欺诈保护:立享99美元优惠:http://efani.com/crypto101体验Gemini交易所:https://gemini.com/card体验Plus500平台:https://plus500.com立即以1美元获取我的完整加密投资组合:https://www.cryptorevolution.com/cryptnation-direct免费领取《加密革命》指南,即刻开启买卖交易加密货币的盈利之路:https://www.cryptorevolution.com/free周边商店https://cryptorevolutionmerch.com/订阅YouTube独家内容:https://www.youtube.com/@crypto101podcast关注社交媒体获取前沿加密动态:https://twitter.com/Crypto101Podhttps://instagram.com/crypto_101嘉宾链接https://www.tastycrypto.com/*本内容不构成财务、税务或法律建议*Boardwalk Flock LLC. 保留所有权利▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬背景音乐Fog by DIZARO https://soundcloud.com/dizarofr知识共享协议—署名-禁止演绎 3.0未本地化—CC BY-ND 3.0 免费下载/流媒体:http://bit.ly/Fog-DIZARO音乐由Audio Library推广 https://youtu.be/lAfbjt_rmE8▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬节目赞助商:* Gemini交易所:https://gemini.com/card* Plus500平台:https://plus500.com广告合作请联系:https://redcircle.com/brands隐私与退订:https://redcircle.com/privacy

双语字幕

仅展示文本字幕,不包含中文音频;想边听边看,请使用 Bayt 播客 App。

Speaker 0

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Speaker 0

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Plus, sign up now for a $200 Bitcoin bonus to kick start your rewards. Visit gemini.com/card today. Again, if you're looking to invest in Bitcoin but don't know where to start or you're a faithful listener of the Crypto one zero one podcast and love Bitcoin and other cryptos, visit the Gemini credit card website so it's easy for you to earn even more Bitcoin or crypto with their credit card. Again, visit gemini.com/card today to learn more.

Speaker 1

好的,大家好,欢迎回到 crypto one zero one 播客的又一期节目。我是你的联合主持人 Bryce,一如既往地和我的好兄弟 Brendan 一起主持。兄弟,最近怎么样?

Alright, everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the crypto one zero one podcast. I'm your cohost, Bryce, joined as always by my good buddy, Brendan. How you doing, brother?

Speaker 2

我很好,很好。我们这边来了位熟悉的面孔。对于那些喜欢收听我们每年举办几次的峰会的人来说,你们可能已经认识了 JJ Kannahan。上一次我有幸对他进行了采访。

I'm doing good. Doing good. We got a familiar face over here. For everyone that likes to tune in to our summits that we do a couple of times a year, you're probably familiar with JJ Kannahan. I actually got to interview him last time.

Speaker 2

他在市场领域已经活跃了三十多年,你们可能会认出他的一些作品。但 Bryce,这次对我来说真的很令人兴奋,因为我记得上次采访完他之后,我立刻给 Bryce 和 Tivo 发了消息。

He's been around in the markets for thirty plus years now. You're gonna recognize some of his work. But, I mean, Bryce, this is this is a really exciting one for me because I remember talking to him last time. And immediately afterwards, I guess, JJ, you don't know this. I shot Bryce and Tivo a message.

Speaker 2

我说我们必须请他来播客,你们一定要

Was like, we gotta get him on the pod. You gotta

Speaker 1

请这位嘉宾回来。

bring this guy back.

Speaker 2

当时没机会听他分享,但每个人都应该听听。我不想剧透太多,但这次真的是我近年来最喜欢的峰会之一。

Didn't get a chance to listen to him. Everybody needs to. So I I don't wanna glaze it too much, but this seriously was one of my favorite summits that we did in recent years.

Speaker 3

感谢感谢,希望我没有辜负大家的期望。其实我觉得你们这么介绍我,是在说我老了,经历得多。

Well, thank god. Thanks, guys. I hope I can live up to the expectation. You know, I think what you're really introducing me is saying he's old, so he's seen a lot.

Speaker 1

他确实见证过很多行情波动,是一位市场老将,曾经经营过做市机构。他目前是 IG 北美公司的首席执行官,这家公司是 Tastytrade 和 Tastylive 的母公司。但我们想让你和我们的听众重新认识一下彼此。就像 Brennan 说的,几个月前在我们的一场现场峰会上你做过一次精彩的介绍,但我们很乐意再次相互熟悉一下。

He's seen a lot of price action. Just a market veteran who's, like, he's you know, ran market making entities. You're currently the CEO of IG North America, which is the parent company of Tastytrade and Tastylive. But we wanna kind of, you know, just catch you up with our audience and and get our audience acquainted with you. Like Brennan said, you you know, you gave a great introduction at one of our live summits that we did a few months back, but we'd love to kinda get acquainted again.

Speaker 1

那么,JJ,跟我们简单介绍一下你自己,以及你正在做些什么。

So so JJ, tell us a little bit about who you are and and what you're building.

Speaker 3

当然可以。我最初的职业生涯正如你提到的那样,是在芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE)做做市商,时间大概是在80年代中期。当时交易的是OE,也就是标普100指数期权,那是全球最繁忙的交易场地之一,最多时有600多人在那里跳来跳去,靠喊叫和喧闹谋生。对于一个年轻人来说,那真是一段非常精彩的时光。当然,后来那个交易场地发生了变化,我也最终转向了SPX,整个场内交易模式也发生了变化。

Certainly. So I started my career as I believe you referenced as a market maker at the CBOE, in the we'll just call it mid eighties and traded at the time in the, OE access to the S and P one hundred, which was the busiest pit in the world at one time with 600 people jumping up and down yelling and screaming for a living. It was it was really a fantastic place to be as a young person. Obviously, you know, that pit change. I ended up in the SPX and pit trading in general changed.

Speaker 3

当Tom Siznoff和Scott Sheridan创办Thinkorswim时,我加入了他们。后来我们将Thinkorswim卖给了TD Ameritrade,我在TD Ameritrade工作了16年,几乎参与了交易业务中所有可能涉及的工作,从运营thinkorswim平台,到政府关系,再到管理咨询服务。对我来说,那是一段非常精彩的经历。我们当时也有一支非常出色的团队。

So when, Tom Siznoff, Scott Sheridan, and started Thinkorswim, they were you know, I went and worked with those guys. We ended up selling Thinkorswim to TD Ameritrade. I stayed at TD Ameritrade for sixteen years and did just about everything you could do in the trading business from running the thinkorswim platform to doing government relations to managing an advisory service. So it was really an amazing, amazing run for me. And, we have just a great team of people over there.

Speaker 3

与此同时,Tom和Scott又创办了Tastytrade。于是在2022年,他们邀请我加入董事会,并担任该公司北美业务的首席执行官——当时他们已经将公司卖给了IG集团。我负责的业务包括tasty trading、tasty FX、tasty crypto以及tasty live。

Tom and Scott, meantime, had started Tastytrade. And so in 2022, they asked me to come board and be CEO of the after they had sold it to IG, be CEO of the North American side of the company, which as you you you said, Bryce, tasty trading, tasty FX, tasty crypto, tasty live.

Speaker 2

是的。而且从我们上次谈话以来,经历真的非常疯狂。很多事情发生了变化。你稍微回顾一下,我想今年的发展和很多人预期的都不太一样,至少和我预期的不一样。

Yeah. I mean and it's been a crazy ride since we last talked too. I mean, a lot has happened. You There's a little bit back. I think this year went a lot different than than a lot of people expected, at least a lot different than I expected.

Speaker 2

年初的时候,感觉像是接连遭受了三次沉重打击,各种黑天鹅事件接连不断。我记得最开始是那个不是OpenAI,而是DeepSeek引发的事件,然后是关税问题,接着又是各种其他事情。

We started off with what felt like, you know, three gut punches with all these different black swan events. Yeah. I remember the the not the OpenAI. It was the deep seek. One was, the initial one, and then we had tariffs, then we had all these other things.

Speaker 2

然后我们迅速下跌,所有人都觉得世界末日要来了。但现在,无论是比特币还是各大指数,各项资产都在不断创出历史新高,市场已经完全恢复了。但自从我们上次交谈以来,这确实是一段非常疯狂的旅程。而你我都是喜欢生活在交易和投资这个世界的。我想问一下,自我们上次聊天以来,对你来说有什么改变吗?

And then we we plummeted down, and everyone thought the world was ending. Now everything's hitting new all time highs, whether you're looking at Bitcoin or the indices. Everything's hitting new all time highs and recovered, but it's been this wild ride since we last got to talk. And and me and you both, you know, we'd like to to live in this world of trading and investing in all this. I guess, what has changed for you since we last chatted?

Speaker 3

我觉得正如你所说,我们上次聊天大概就发生在总统宣布关税政策前后。当时市场出现了很多波动,我不太喜欢用‘恐慌’这个词,但市场确实充满了不安情绪。正如你所说,出现了抛售潮。而现在,正如你刚才提到的,我们正接近历史高点,这真的非常令人惊讶。

Well, I think to your point, last time we chatted was sort of right around the time, you know, that the president, unveiled the tariffs. Yeah. And so there was a lot of I don't like to use the word panic, but there was a lot of, consternation, shall we say, in the market, as you said, selling off. And now, you know, as you just said, we're near all time highs. It really is amazing.

Speaker 3

我认为有些投资的基本原则是适用于任何市场的。Brandon,我们之前和你聊过这个话题。无论你是交易狗狗币这样的数字资产,还是交易苹果公司的股票,这些原则都适用。关键在于不要全仓买入或全仓卖出。如果你在市场下跌时仓位过重,很可能当时就惊慌失措地清仓了,现在坐在那里后悔莫及,心里可能在想两件事中的一件。

And I think that some rules of investing and, know, Brandon, you and I talked about this when I was on with you. Some rules of investing go across no matter what the product. I don't care if you're somebody who's trading, you know, a a doge digital asset or somebody who's trading, Apple stock. It's all about not being all in or all out. And if you were the type of person who had too big an investment when we sold off, you probably hit the panic button, got out, and now you're sitting here kicking yourself saying one of two things.

Speaker 3

‘我真是个傻瓜,以后再也不这么干了’,或者‘他们坑了我’。

I'm an idiot, I'm never gonna do it again, or they screwed me.

Speaker 1

市场操纵。

Market manipulation.

Speaker 3

不,你做成了一件大事。是你自己把自己搞砸了。不过,我想这确实表明了一些基本规则,比如你最好做一个比你想象中更小的投资者或交易者。这样,当价格下跌时,如果你是做多的,你就可以用更好的价格买入更多东西,而不是惊慌地说,天哪。

No. You achieved something great. You screwed yourself. But, anyway, it it really it it goes to show, I think, just some of the basic rules of always being probably a smaller investor slash trader than you think you need to be. And, also, that way, downward movements, if you're long, you can buy more things if you want to at a better price rather than saying, oh my god.

Speaker 3

我得恐慌一下。你们知道的,你们虽然年轻,但已经从事这行相当一段时间了。我知道你们迟早会学到这一课,而我们都清楚,这是一堂非常痛苦的课。

I have to panic. And it it you know, you guys have done this quite a while now even though you're young guys. I know that at some point you learn that lesson, and we all know that's a painful, painful lesson.

Speaker 0

好了,加密社区的朋友们。让我们暂停一下,谈谈目前一个非常重要的问题,那就是SIM卡交换攻击。这种攻击正变得越来越严重,尤其是在加密领域。如果有人控制了你的手机号码,他们就可以访问你的银行账户、交易平台、邮箱,甚至你的私人信息。这就是为什么Crypto One One播客节目与Afony展开了合作。

Alright, Crypt Nation fam. Let's pause for one second and talk about an important issue going on right now, and that's SIM swap attacks. SIM swap attacks are becoming a serious threat, especially in crypto. Someone If gets control of your phone number, they can access your bank accounts, your exchanges, emails, and even your private messages. That's why the Crypto one one podcast has partnered with Afony.

Speaker 0

这是一家美国最安全的移动服务提供商,能够保证防止SIM卡交换攻击,并提供额外的隐私保护。自推出以来,还没有任何一位Afani用户遭遇过SIM卡交换攻击,而且如果真的发生了这种情况,你还将获得最高500万美元的保险,以弥补可能的财务损失。这正是我们选择与他们合作的原因。Afani最吸引我们的地方就是这个高达500万美元的保险政策。Afani使用的是AT&T或Verizon网络,你可以自由选择其中一家。

It's America's most secure mobile service offering a guaranteed protection against SIM swaps with added privacy. Since launching, not one single Afani user has ever been SIM swapped, and for some reason, if it ever does happen, you're backed by up to $5,000,000 in insurance against financial losses. This is literally why we chose to partner with them. It is our favorite thing about Afani is the insurance policy of up to $5,000,000 if it does happen to you. Afani runs on either AT and T or the Verizon network, you get to choose which one.

Speaker 0

这里没有任何合同约束,注册也非常简单便捷。你还可以享受60天的退款保证,因此尝试使用完全没有风险。现在,我们的听众可以在affani.com/crypto101注册时享受99美元的折扣。也可以点击下方节目说明中的链接。如今,你的手机号码的价值可能已经超过了你的社会保障号码。

There are no contracts, and it is super easy and seamless to sign up. You also get a sixty day money back guarantee, so there's zero risk in trying it out. Right now, for our listeners, you get $99 off when you sign up at affani.com/crypto10one. That's affani.com/crypto101 or check the show notes below for a link. These days, your phone number is probably more valuable than your social security number.

Speaker 0

所以,一定要用A FONI来保护你的号码。

So make sure it's protected with a FONI.

Speaker 1

是的,天哪,确实是这样。你在市场中学到的所有东西其实都来自那些伤痛,来自让这些伤痛慢慢结疤、愈合的过程。就像你说的,我们还年轻,但加密交易的速度可比普通股票快多了,交易量也大得多,毕竟加密市场是全年无休、全天候运作的,而股票市场一年也就252个交易日左右。

Yeah. Oh my gosh. It really is. It's it's where you learn everything in markets though is from getting those wounds, you know, and from kind of letting those wounds scar over and heal. And like you said, we're young, but crypto trades, you know, eight times as fast or eight times as much, you know, trading minutes in the year than there is in normal stocks because it's twenty four seven, three sixty five, whereas I think stocks are like two hundred and fifty two days out of the year, whatever.

Speaker 1

所以这确实挺有意思。加密市场真的让我开始长白头发了。我妻子最近指出我头上已经有几根白发了,她说:‘伙计,这加密货币真的把你给折腾惨了,到底怎么回事?’我当时就懵了:‘什么情况?’

And so it is interesting just, you know, crypto is really I've already got some grays. My wife's pointing out a couple grays in my head. She goes, man, this crypto stuff is really, really taking it out of you, man. What's going on? I'm like, what's

Speaker 3

就这些了。最后我还想补充一点,Bryce,正如你所说,人们在投资任何东西时有时会感到沮丧,这是正常的周期性现象。顺便说一句,从事这行很久之后你会发现,你偶尔还会犯同样的错误,但你要努力让这些错误只是偶尔发生,而不是经常发生。同时要记住,没有任何产品有义务让你赚钱。

all it? And the only other thing I'll add, Bryce, and again, you know, I I I think people tend to sometimes get discouraged when they're investing in anything, and and and that's part of the natural cycle. And by the way, one of the things having done this for a long time, you will make the same mistakes occasionally, but you wanna get them down to occasional rather than often. And, keep in mind, no product owes you anything. They don't owe that you should make money from it.

Speaker 3

我只是觉得我们都会遇到这些问题,你知道的。你们在这档播客节目中的表现非常出色,我知道一直都有新听众加入。而投资本身有一个自然的周期,人们常说投资不要带感情,我觉得这种说法有点扯淡,毕竟这是钱。

And I just think some of those things, you know, we we we all fall into this. You you guys do an incredible job on this podcast, and I know that there's people who join all the time. And, you know, part of the natural cycle of investing is try they say don't have emotion. I think that's kinda crap. It's money.

Speaker 3

谈到钱,每个人都会有情绪。但最好的做法是,你要做到两点:首先,提前设定好最坏的情况;其次,保持投资规模适中。这样你就不会像Bryce那样长出白头发。看看我,现在几乎看起来像25岁一样。

Everybody has emotion when it comes to money, but the best way to do it is to keep yourself so that you you a, you lay out worst case scenario upfront, and b, you stay kinda small, and then you don't have those gray hairs like Bryce. Look at me. Almost looks 25 now.

Speaker 2

不幸的是,Bryce,我比你还年轻,却也面临同样的问题。几周前我去理发店的时候,理发师还跟我聊到这个。我当时就想,好吧,我不是因为心情不好才来听这个的。但这种波动确实是一把双刃剑。

You know, unfortunately, Bryce, I'm younger than you, and I'm in the same boat. I was at a a barber a couple weeks ago, and they were talking to me about it. I was like, alright. You know, I'm not coming here in pain to be told this. But, you know, the the the volatility certain certainly works in both ways.

Speaker 2

对吧?有好也有坏。回顾这次的情况,JJ,你觉得人们应该如何正确应对类似的情况呢?因为尽管我们不愿意承认,但未来肯定还会出现更多类似的突发事件,还会有更多不可预见的诱因。

Right? Good and bad. But looking back on this, JJ, what is, like, the proper way that people could have handled this situation? Because as much as we hate to say it, there's gonna be more events like this in the future. There's gonna be more just unforeseen catalysts.

Speaker 2

正如Bryce所说,加密货币的波动幅度远超很多人熟悉的传统市场。我认为这确实会让人感到害怕,因为在传统金融市场中,你可能看到市场上下波动30%;而在加密货币市场中,跌幅可能高达60%到80%。很多人原本以为今年监管方面会有积极进展,结果却被打了个措手不及,损失惨重,令人恐慌。

And crypto, like Bryce said, moves at multiples of what a lot of people are used to. And I think that that can be really scary because in the trad fi markets, you know, you saw the markets move up and down 30%. In crypto, you saw the markets move down, like, 60 to 80%. And for a lot of people, you know, they were going into this thinking, oh, it's gonna be a positive year for regulation and this and that. They got caught off guard, and it hurt, and it was scary.

Speaker 2

然后价格下跌了,有些人可能就抛售了。之后价格又涨回来,他们又在犹豫是否要跟风重新入场。面对类似这样的情况,未来我们应该如何应对?

And then they went down. Some people probably sold. It went back up. They're like, should I FOMO back in? Looking at situations like this one for future reference, like, what is the proper way to handle those?

Speaker 2

因为正如你所说,无论你多么努力去压抑情绪,情绪终究会参与其中。

Because like you said, like, emotions do get involved as much as you can try to suppress them.

Speaker 1

我觉得你提到了仓位管理,对吧?这是我从你们刚才的讨论中得到的一个主要观点。不过

I think you you mentioned position sizing. Right? That was the main one that I that I kinda took away from from everything you've been talking about. But

Speaker 3

没错,Bryce和Brian,你们说得很对。我想说的是,如果你是一个正在学习投资的人,而且我知道你们帮助了很多新听众去理解这些内容,我真的很感激你们所做的一切。这确实不容易。

Yeah. Absolutely, Bryce and Brian. So I think that we'll say that you're somebody and, I know you have a lot of newer people who are really trying to learn. And, again, I I I I really appreciate how much you guys are helping people understand this. It's it's difficult.

Speaker 3

顺便说一句,不只是年轻人在尝试理解这些,像我这个年纪的很多老年人也在努力搞懂,因为这是一种全新的投资方式,这很好。但我想最大的原则是……抱歉?

And by the way, it's not only younger people. A lot of old people my age are trying to figure this out too because it's a different way of investing, which is great. But I think the biggest rule for sorry?

Speaker 1

我刚刚正想说,你知道的,我特别想强调这一点,因为有很多人年龄跟我父亲差不多,对吧?你知道,六十多岁了,他现在正努力理解这些东西。而这些人手里掌握着所有的钱。比如说,我们这个年纪的人,或者还在上大学、刚毕业的人。

I was just gonna say, like, you I wanted to emphasize that point because there are a lot of folks that are like my dad's age. Right? You know, in his sixties, you know, he's trying to really start to grok this stuff. And they're the people with all the money. Like, people that are our age or that are, you know, in college or just graduate.

Speaker 1

我们没什么钱。所以不管我们怎么想,其实都没那么重要,因为未来一定会应用这些东西。真正掌握大量财富的人,也就是这个年纪的人,我想他们被称为婴儿潮一代,对吧?他们才拥有所有的财富。

We got no money. So it doesn't matter if we you know, we're gonna get on board whether we want to or not because it's gonna be the application of the future. The people with all the money, the the age, I guess, they're called the baby boomers. Right? They've got, you know, all the wealth and stuff.

Speaker 1

现在他们开始意识到,你不能再买债券了。股票的话,你也可以通过ETF在市场上零星买一些。但加密货币才是令人兴奋的部分,它才是波动性所在,人们现在真的开始进入这个领域了。我们的很多订阅用户都是四十、五十甚至六十岁以上的人,他们真的在努力搞清楚,好吧,这是一项新的投资方式。

Like, now they're realizing, you know, we can't buy bonds anymore. You know, stocks are, you know, we could buy stocks here and there through ETFs in in the market. But crypto is the exciting stuff. Crypto is where the volatility is, and people are really starting to get in. And a lot of our subscribers are, you know, forty, fifty, 60 plus that are really trying to figure out, alright, this is a new a new thing to invest in.

Speaker 1

我只是想强调一下这一点,因为很多人觉得自己很孤单,不理解这些,才刚刚开始适应互联网,诸如此类。但你完全

But I just wanted to emphasize that point because people feel like they're alone, they don't get it, they're just getting used to the Internet, and so on and so forth. But you're totally

Speaker 3

不不不,我很高兴你提到这点,布莱斯。我总是觉得特别有意思,当我跟同龄人聊天,他们可能还没接触过市场等等,他们第一个问题往往就是,那这个比特币到底是什么?

No. No. I love that you're talking about that, Bryce. And and I always find it exciting when I I I do talk to, you know, people my age who may not be in the markets, etcetera. And one of their first questions is always, so so what is this Bitcoin?

Speaker 3

它是怎么运作的?嗯嗯。所以你知道,能有像你们这样的资源,告诉他们,来,来学习一下。正如你所说,这些人是愿意尝试新事物的,而且他们确实有一些资金,就算投资失败了,他们也能说,好吧,我从中学会了点东西。嗯嗯。

How does it work? Mhmm. And so, you know, being able to have something like yours that what you guys do and say, here, here, go get educated. And to your point, these are people who are willing to try things and do have some money where if it goes against them can be like, okay, I learned something from it. Mhmm.

Speaker 3

不过,回到我刚才想说的话题,关于仓位管理你应该怎么做?我喜欢做的一件事,也是我给自己的孩子等建议的方式是,假设你有3000美元可以投资,你想把这笔钱投入到某一种加密资产中,比如说比特币,因为它是交易最广泛的。我们假设比特币的价格是10万美元,方便计算。

But, you know, back to where I was starting on and what should you do position sizing? One of the things I like to do and the way I advise, like, my own children, etcetera, is we'll save you had $3,000 to invest, and that's what you were gonna put into one of the crypto assets. We'll save Bitcoin because it's the most widely traded. And say, okay. You know, Bitcoin trading around again, use all ease of math.

Speaker 3

我们暂且称它为10万美元,虽然我们知道它更高。然后你说,我想把比特币的平均买入价控制在9万美元左右。那我会把这3000美元分成500到600美元的小份。比如说,我先在10万美元的时候买一点。

We'll call it a 100,000 even though we know it's higher. And you say, okay. I wanna have an average price of buying Bitcoin at $90,000. So I would probably break up that $3,000 in the $5,600 increments. Say I'm gonna buy some at a 100.

Speaker 3

然后在9.5万美元的时候再买一点,在9万美元、8.5万美元、8万美元的时候也买一点。如果价格继续下跌,那也没关系,那是一个机会。我觉得很多人不会这样思考。

I'm gonna buy some at 95. I'm gonna buy some at $90.85, 80. If it continues to go down, it's not terrible. It's opportunity. And I don't think people think that way.

Speaker 3

他们可能会问我:万一我以10万美元买入后价格直接上涨了怎么办?我总是回答他们:到目前为止,你在投资中最大的问题就是,你刚买的东西就立刻涨得太快了?

What they'll say to me, well, what if I buy it at a 100 and it goes straight up? And as I always say to them, so that your biggest problem in investing so far is that when you buy things, they go up too quickly for you.

Speaker 1

我怀疑你真的做到了。

I doubt you did.

Speaker 3

所以,再说一次,我认为你必须适应的一件事是,这需要一种完全不同的思维方式,但专业人士每天就是这么交易的。波动是你的朋友。只有当你有足够的资金,在市场走势对你不利时能有所作为,波动才真正成为你的朋友。开始交易时,如果心中设定的平均价格低于当前交易价格,将非常有助于你长期的投资。

So, again, one of the things I think you really have to get comfortable with in it, it's it's a complete different mindset, but this is how professionals trade every day. Movement's your friend. The only way movement's your friend is if you have money to do something when things go against you. Starting out with an average price in your head that's lower than when we're trading now really will help your investing long term.

Speaker 1

那是完全正确的。Brandon 和我经常向一些订阅了我们技术分析研究更深层次服务的用户强调的一点是锚定成交量加权平均价格(AVWAP)。使用这种锚定成交量加权平均价格的好处在于,它不是你脑袋里随便想的一个数字,比如,嘿,我想以 5 万美元的价格买入比特币,但那个价格可能并不合理。

That's totally right. One of the things that Brandon and I preach a lot to some of our folks that are, you know, in some deeper level of of subscription services to our technical analysis research is the anchored volume weighted average price. And so using this anchor volume weighted average price is a great way to have not just some arbitrary number in your head of, like, hey. I I wanna get this arbitrary because, hey. I'd like to buy Bitcoin at $50,000, but that might not be written.

Speaker 1

它可能并不现实。因此,你可以进行这样的计算,并将它锚定到某些关键转折点上,比如真正影响市场的选举之夜,或者就职日、解放日等等。你可以把这些重要的市场转折点作为锚定点,然后大致看到从那一刻起市场参与者所支付的平均价格。然后你可以说,好吧,那个价格应该是一个支撑位,或者应该是一个阻力位。

It might not be realistic. And so this sort of calculation that you could run and anchor it to certain pivot points, like, you know, election night, which really moved the market or, you know, inauguration day or the, you know, liberation day. You anchor it to these sort of key pivot points in the market, and you could kinda see the average price that the market participants paid since this moment in time. And you could say, okay. Well, that should be a support or that should be a resistance.

Speaker 1

当价格下跌并在此支撑位附近企稳时,我们就会在那里买入。或者当价格在阻力位附近受阻时,我们可能会在那里做空。这种做法有很多有趣的地方。相比那些静态的简单移动平均线,我更喜欢这种方法。

And then if it comes down and kinda holds up as support, we're gonna we're gonna buy there. Or if that resistance kinda holds up as resistance, maybe we're gonna short there. And there's a lot of interesting things that come with that. It's I I I like it a little better than just your static, you know, simple moving averages. You know?

Speaker 1

比如说 20 天均线,仅仅因为这是过去 20 天的平均价格,但 20 天这个时间本身是随意的。不过,技术分析(TA)很多时候是自我实现的预言。很多人使用技术分析,所以它才有效,等等。我想借这个讨论的机会,你也明显有 21 年的做市商经验,你在市场中已经待了 30 年。

20 just because this is the average price the last 20, that twenty days is arbitrary. But, you know, TA, lot of it is self fulfilling. A lot of people use TA, so that's why it works and and so on and so forth. But I wanted to kinda, you know, in the same vein of that discussion, you know, you've obviously spent twenty one years as a market maker. You know, you've done, you know, thirty years in the in the markets.

Speaker 1

有没有什么策略或者经过时间考验的战术?我不是想说有什么万灵药,我也不会把 AVWAP 当作万灵药来看。但有没有什么策略或者指标是你常用的,比如持仓量、COT 数据跟踪之类的?

Is there any and I don't wanna say silver bullet. I wouldn't call the, you know, a a v wop a silver bullet. But are there any strategies or time tested sort of tactics maybe? Because we've talked about risk management, but, like, any tactics or or indicators that you might use, open interest, tracking, you know, COT, anything like that?

Speaker 3

嗯,我很喜欢你提到的持仓量这个方向,因为对我来说,我一直都希望成为最大池塘中的小鱼。我从不想去交易那些没人交易的东西,因为那里的人都是专业人士。我更愿意和散户交易者一起交易。并不是说我比别人懂得多,而且任何人觉得这很可笑。

Well, I I I like where you're going with open interest, because to me, I've always wanted to be the smallest fish in the biggest pond. Okay. I never wanna go trade something that nobody else is trading because the people who are there then are all professionals. I wanna trade with the other retail traders. Not that I know more than anybody and anybody who thinks that's silly.

Speaker 3

只是人越多,市场流动性越好,买卖价差也越小。你可以称之为滑点,或者随便你怎么称呼这个价差。我举个股票的例子来说明会更简单一些。比如 SPDR 这个 ETF,它的买卖价差全天都只有 1 美分,你进出市场时损失不大。

It's just, if there's more people there, there's more markets being made and you have less, you know, we can call it slippage. You can call it whatever you want between bid and ask. I'll I'll use an an equity example just for ease. Spiders, if you go and trade that ETF, they're penny wide all day long. You're not giving up much in and out.

Speaker 3

但是一些交易量较小的加密货币,你可能会看到价差达到 56 美元。我不是说比特币这种价格高达 10 万美元的产品,你当然会看到更大的价差,但你确实会看到一些价格只有 3 美元的币,买卖价差却有 1 美元。这对投资者来说并不是好事。所以尽可能选择流动性大的市场。Bryce,如果我可以回到你刚刚提到的 VWAP 这个话题,我真的很喜欢它。

Now, some of the cryptos that are less traded, you might see, you know, markets that are $56 wide. And I'm not talking necessarily about Bitcoin, which is, you know, a $100,000 product where you would expect to see a larger, but you will see some of these that are $3 and and and and they still have dollar wide markets. That's not good for you as a a a consumer so to speak. Want much market possible. And Bryce, if I can go back to what you just brought up on the VWAP, I I do love that.

Speaker 3

但我有一件事想对大家说,我相信你们也一定经历过,我非常想听听你们的看法,那就是你们收到过多少人的来信,比如他们写邮件给你们说,嘿,你们说得对,但这次我只是没有照做。我当时不够自律,或者诸如此类的话。哦,对了。

But one thing I would say to people and I'm sure you guys experience it, I'd love to get your, take on that is how many people do you have have wrote into you guys or, you know, I I emailed you, whatever it may be, and say, hey. You were right, but I just didn't do it this time. I wasn't disciplined or whatever. Oh, yeah.

Speaker 2

因为那确实是关键所在。

Because that's actually the key.

Speaker 1

没错。不,我们确实看到过这种情况。我们论坛上也经常有人这么说,各种类似的情况我们都听过。

Yep. No. I we've seen that. We've we've seen that. We've heard that in our forums, all that kind of stuff.

Speaker 1

因为我们经常提醒大家,嘿,加密货币交易是有风险的。你知道的,很多事情都是概率性的。你得设置止损单,做这些该做的事情。但有时候人们只是在心里想,哦,对,是这个道理。

You know, because we we we caution people like, hey. Crypto trading's, you know, risky. It's, you know, lot of you know, all this is probabilistic. You have to use your stop losses and all that kind of stuff. But sometimes people, you know, they're just following along in in in their minds, like, oh, yeah.

Speaker 1

听起来有道理,我会去做的。但他们之后却从没真正去做,结果错过了机会。是的,我们经常看到这种情况。我认为这很大程度上是因为缺乏自我约束力。

Like, that makes sense. I'll I'll go and do that. But then they never do, and then they missed out. And, yeah, we we see that. I think a lot of it is that self discipline.

Speaker 1

作为一名交易员或投资者,自律是最重要的品质之一。布伦南,你每天都在这些市场中,你怎么看这个问题?

One of the most important things as a trader or as an investor. Brennan, I mean, you're in these markets every day. What what do you think on this?

Speaker 2

是的,这非常有趣。我之前提到过一个观点,就是参与者的年龄跨度非常大。我不太想说我们这边的受众群体偏年长,但确实更成熟一些。我想说,至少在我们的听众中,大多数人可能不是18岁、20岁,甚至不是30岁出头的年轻人。

Yeah. I mean, it's it's fascinating. And I like a point that we said earlier that there's people from all ages. We see a lot of I I don't wanna say, like, an older crowd over here, but definitely, like, a more mature crowd. I'd say the majority of, at least, the inside of of our audience tends to be people who probably aren't, like, 18, 20, maybe early thirties.

Speaker 2

当然,这些年轻人也很多,尤其是在如今的社交媒体上随处可见。令人欣喜的是,近年来交易背后的技术发展得非常迅速。我们之前也讨论过这一点,你也经常提到。你曾说过,技术已经或正在让市场变得更加公平。那么在你看来,过去几年里有哪些具体的工具或平台对散户交易者产生了革命性的影响?

And but there are a lot of them out there, and that's what you see a lot of, especially on social media these days. The cool thing is that we have seen the technology behind trading just evolve at such a rapid rate? And and we talked about this, and you've preached about this a lot. But you say, like, you know, that technology has leveled the playing field here or it is leveling the playing field. What specific tools or platforms have been game changers for retail traders in your eyes over the last couple of years?

Speaker 3

嗯,我可能会有点偏心,德里克。我想说这一切始于Thinkorswim。是的,它确实如此。我本来是要提到TastyTrade的。

Well, I'm gonna be a little biased, Derek. And I wanna say it started with Thinkorswim. Yeah. It did. I was going to TastyTrade.

Speaker 3

但我想说的是,如果你真的想看到加密货币对更广泛市场产生的影响,可以考虑一下现在24小时股票交易的出现。这其实是加密货币带来的一个副产品。我记得布赖斯之前提到过各类市场交易时间的延长。

But what here's here's what I will say. Yeah. If you really wanna see the influence of and and guys both touched on this a little bit. If you wanna see the influence that crypto has actually taken to the more general market, think about the fact of twenty four hour equity trading now. That is a byproduct of I I think Bryce, you quoted the hours that everything is trading earlier.

Speaker 3

这完全是由于人们意识到我们根本没有理由停市。我一直认为,五年之内我们将在股票市场上实现周末交易。我认为这是自然而然的发展。我们已经在加密货币领域看到了这种可能性,因此没有理由不能在股票市场中实现。

That is a 100% byproduct of the fact that people realize that there's no reason we should be shutting down. And, you know, I I've been of the opinion that within five years, we'll be trading on weekends, on the equity side. I just think it's a natural. We've seen that we can do it in crypto. There's no reason you won't be able to do it in equities.

Speaker 3

也许人们不会特别喜欢它。更大的问题在于,为什么加密货币领域可以更快地完成事情,人们经常问我这个问题:为什么加密货币世界可以如此迅速地推进,而股票市场却要花很长时间才能完成?主要原因有两个。首先,必须承认,股票市场从诞生之初就深受监管的束缚。

People may not love it. And the bigger problem, the reason you can get things done quicker on the crypto side because people have this question for me a lot. Why can they move so fast in the crypto world and it takes the equity world so long to get it done? Two primary reasons. Number one, you know, the equity market, let's face it, is steeped in regulation from where it came.

Speaker 3

我不是说加密货币没有监管,它确实有。而且我认为好的一点是,人们现在对这种监管的存在已经越来越适应了。第二个原因是,我不了解有哪家加密货币公司,当然可能有一些边缘公司我不太熟悉,它们的技术不是相对较新并且持续快速更新的。你再看看那些老的经纪公司,它们已经存在很长时间了。

Not that I'm saying crypto doesn't have regulation around it. It does. And I think the nice thing is people are becoming way more comfortable with that fact. But number two, I don't know of a crypto company, and and I'm sure there's, you know, some on the edge that I'm just not familiar with, that their technology is not fairly new and really being kept up at a quick pace. You go back to some of these old brokerage firms and they've been around a long time.

Speaker 3

它们的技术还停留在上世纪七十年代。因此,它们完成任何事情都需要很长时间。所以,我认为唯一真正阻碍我们进入周末交易市场的因素,就是这些拥有老旧技术的公司仍然具有很大的影响力,而在这一业务领域,任何事情的推进都需要更长的时间。我确定你们也经常被问到这个问题,但这是我个人认为人们必须非常注意的一点。

Their technology is, you know, steeped in the seventies. And so because of that, it just takes a long time for them to get things done. So that's the only thing in my opinion that will actually keep us from going to weekend markets is the fact that some of these older firms with older technology also have great influence, and it takes longer to get anything done on that that side of the business. I'm sure you guys get this question actually probably a fair amount also, but it is one thing I think people have to be very conscious of.

Speaker 1

是的。Brendan,也许你可以带领我们讨论一下代币化的问题。我想提一个观点,因为我感觉对拉里·芬克(Larry Fink)来说,一定有一个顿悟的时刻,他是贝莱德(BlackRock)的创始人兼CEO。大约两三年前,他突然意识到这一点。我真希望有一天能和他聊聊。到底是什么时候让他突然意识到,‘天哪,我所从事的这个资产管理业务,而且我是这个领域最大的公司,马上就要被代币化了’?

Yeah. And and, Brendan, maybe you could lead us in a discussion about tokenization. I just wanted to bring up one point because I feel like there was this moment where it must have clicked for I think Larry Fink primarily, right, CEO, founder of BlackRock. Something clicked two years ago or three years ago when he realized I I just wish I would be able to talk to him one day. What was that moment where you realized, oh my gosh, my entire business of asset management, of which I'm the largest, is about to become tokenized.

Speaker 1

现在,他开始推出各种代币化基金。比特币ETF给贝莱德带来的利润甚至超过了他们的标普500 ETF,这让我觉得非常不可思议。他们那个大型股指数ETF的管理费更高,但管理的资金规模却小得多。但他已经看到了未来的方向,那就是代币化和现实世界资产的全天候交易。他可能当时就意识到,‘天哪,我必须赶紧加入并引领这场变革,而不是抗拒它’。

And now, you know, he's, you know, spinning up all these different tokenization funds. The Bitcoin ETF makes more money for him than his S and P ETF, which I thought was pretty crazy or whatever they call it, their large cap sort of index. You know, it's got higher management fees and all that kind of stuff, and it manages much smaller amount of money. But he could see the sort of pathway forward, which is gonna be tokenization in real world assets in twenty four seven trading. And he probably was like, oh my gosh.

Speaker 1

但我不太清楚,我只是觉得大概几年前,他好像突然开窍了,然后就全力投入到现实世界资产(RWAs)等方向。

I gotta get on board and lead this charge rather than resist it. But I don't know. I just kinda saw the lights go on with him, like, I don't know, a couple years ago, and then he went full full head of steam towards RWAs and stuff.

Speaker 3

Bryce,正如你所说,这种转变,比如他,也许还有杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon),对市场到底产生了什么影响?如果你把你们刚才讨论的很多内容联系起来,比如谈到年长的客户、谈到这些大人物的加入,我认为你们需要这种权威的认可。这样人们才会说,‘哦,原来这不是骗局’。

And I think, Bryce, to your point, that switch, you know, as you said, with him, perhaps Jamie Dimon, what has what has really done for you know, if you really tie a lot of the things you guys have talked about, talking about older clients, talking about those guys coming on. You needed that sort of stamp of approval in my opinion. Yes. So people would say, oh, okay. This isn't a scam.

Speaker 3

这是真实的市场,是受监管的市场。我认为正是这种认可在过去几年中百分之百地推动了市场的增长。你们刚才也提到了,越来越多有资金实力的年长投资者开始尝试或已经尝试过,并且正在扩大他们的交易,因为他们有更多资金可以投入。从零售端来看,这可能是我们看到市场快速增长以及加密货币种类不断扩大的主要原因。我相信这种情况还会继续下去,只不过可能需要一点时间。

This is real. These are regulated markets. And I think that that has what has 100% helped the growth over the last couple of years is you do have older people, as you guys as you said, who have money, who are coming in either experimenting or have experimented and are expanding their trading because they have more money to do so. And that has probably been from the retail side, the greatest reason we've seen so much growth and so many coin you you know, the variety of coins expanding, which I do believe will get to a a a an area. It'll probably take a little longer.

Speaker 3

未来会出现像股票一样的加密货币,并且数量会持续增长。届时,将会有上百种加密货币具备良好的流动性。目前,我不太敢说市场上已经有超过大约15种具有真正良好流动性的加密货币,你们比我更了解情况。

You'll have coins just like you have stocks. They'll just continue to grow. There'll be a 100 of them that have really nice liquidity. Right now, I don't I don't think I'd be comfortable saying that there's probably more to make you guys know better than I. I don't know where I would say that there were more than about 15 that have really good liquidity at the moment.

Speaker 2

是的。而且,正如你所知道的,这可能就是我们尚未看到超小盘ETF的原因,Bryce。因为它们知道,这些产品可能需要更多的成熟度等因素。我认为随着时间的推移,这些产品会出现,而且看起来已经在路上了。但目前来说,甚至很多加密货币ETF,即使是那些还在申请中、尚未获批的,大部分都是大盘ETF。

Yeah. And, you know, it's probably why we haven't seen super small cap ETFs yet, Bryce, is because they know, like, hey. There's probably a little bit more maturity and stuff. And I think that they will come with time, and it looks like they're on the way. But for the moment, you know, even a lot of the crypto ETFs, even the ones that are that are still being applied for and aren't even approved, for the most part, they're the large cap ETFs.

Speaker 2

你知道的,像比特币、以太坊,还有索拉纳、XRP这些市值达到数百亿甚至上万亿美元的资产,都是大公司,因为它们知道那里有最大的流动性和交易量,也最能吸引关注。但回到我们刚才谈到的代币化话题,看到贝莱德(BlackRock)加入并推出了一只基金,这非常引人注目。我相信Van Eck也加入了,并推出了相关基金。而最近最有趣的代币化应用来自Robinhood。这大概是人们观看这段内容时的一个月前发生的。

You know, things that have tens of billions, hundreds of billions, or trillion in market cap, like Bitcoin, Ethereum, you see Solana, XRP, like, all the big ones because they know that's where there is the most liquidity and volume and probably attention as well. But going back to what we were saying just about tokenization, it has been fascinating to see BlackRock get on board and launch a fund. I believe Van Ack got on board and and they launched a fund. And most recently, the most interesting use of it has been from Robinhood. So it will have been about a month ago from the time that people are watching this.

Speaker 2

Robinhood宣布,他们将创建一个Layer 2网络,并将对股票市场进行代币化,包括公开交易的市场。同时,他们还将尝试对非公开交易的公司进行代币化。

But Robinhood came out, and they said, we are going to be creating a layer two, and we're gonna be tokenizing the stock market in both the the publicly traded market. And we're also gonna be looking at even trying to tokenize privately traded companies.

Speaker 1

而OpenAI对此并不满意。他们确实不满意。

And OpenAI did not like that. They did not.

Speaker 2

我看到了他们的推文。

I saw their tweets.

Speaker 3

是的。我昨天好像看到了他们的一份声明。正如你所说,他们确实不太高兴。

Yeah. I I I just saw a statement from them, I believe, yesterday. They are they are less than happy to your point.

Speaker 2

确实是这样。他们基本上是在说,这并不是真正的股权,这一点非常重要。我们其实在内部也讨论过这个问题。你知道,之前参加过我们播客的Aaron,也和我们谈过这个话题。这确实是一个非常重要的理解点。我认为在这个过程中会有很多问题需要解决,但现在还处于早期阶段。我之所以提到这一点,是因为Robinhood是第一个明确表示要对整个股票市场进行代币化的主要参与者。

They are. And they were basically saying that it's not actual equity and stuff and which is very important to understand. We were actually talking about this internally because, you know, Aaron, who used to be here on the podcast, he was talking to us about this. And it's definitely important to understand, and I think that there's gonna be a lot of of kinks that get solved in this process, but it's very early on. And the reason that I bring this up is because Robinhood is the first major player to say we are going to be tokenizing pretty much the entire stock market.

Speaker 2

这会带来什么影响呢?这将使世界各地的人们能够更容易地接触到美国股市。人们常说,欧洲将进入一个可以接触美国股票的新时代。而且你还可以实现全天候24小时交易的目标。

And what does this do? Well, this gives people all over the world. They always say, like, hey. Europe is gonna be able to have, like, just a a new era of access to US equities. And you're also going to be able to trade these with the goal of twenty four seven.

Speaker 2

我想一开始会是24小时5天交易,等一切理顺之后,会逐步过渡到24小时7天不间断交易。这非常有趣。所以我想问你的是,你怎么看待这一切?毕竟你在市场中已经工作了三十年。

It's gonna start, I think, twenty four five. It's gonna try to move to twenty four seven after everything gets figured out. But it's it's fascinating. And so my question for you is, like, how do you view all of this? I mean, you've been in the markets for thirty years.

Speaker 2

你做了很多工作。你认为这一切意味着什么?这是好事还是坏事?我看到很多观点都各不相同。

You've done a lot of work. What does this all mean to you? Is this a good or a bad thing? I've just seen a lot of mixed reviews.

Speaker 3

我觉得你说的点真的很令人兴奋。实际上,我认为我们要实现这个目标所需的时间可能比我们预想的要更长。我今天看到一些消息,欧盟的一个监管机构又对此提出了一些疑问。因此,这类事情总是会比你预期的时间要更久一些。而且,正如你所说的,由Robin Hood来牵头这件事,虽然很好,但这意味着成本会非常高,因为你们的法律团队需要花很长时间来处理这类事务。再说,如果你考虑一下技术层面,以及我们未来的发展方向,这一切似乎又是不可避免的。

I think it's really exciting to your point. I think it's gonna take us longer to get there actually than we I saw something today that the EU, one of the, you know, regulatory bodies has some questions about it again. So the these types of things, I think, Brandon, always take a little bit longer than you think they're going to. And it it you know, Robin Hood leading it, good for them, but it means that it's gonna be very expensive to do because it means a lot of your legal teams are gonna be involved for a long time on doing this kind of stuff. Again, if you think about the technology, you think about where we're going, it does seem inevitable.

Speaker 3

不过,你提到了一个非常重要、关于它实际价值的问题。是的,我认为这可能是最难让监管机构和公众理解的部分。所以别误会我,我完全支持这件事。

However, you brought up a really, really important point about what is the actual value of it. Yeah. And I think that's going to be the part that's the most difficult to get over perhaps with the regulators and with the understanding of the general public. So so don't get me wrong. I'm all for this.

Speaker 3

我认为这完全讲得通,但这里需要进行的教育程度远远超过普通股票的范畴。你要知道,它几乎是一种衍生品,就像期权一样。当人们开始交易期权时,你就必须进行大量教育。任何基于股票本身的衍生产品都需要人们深入理解,这样他们才能真正明白自己承担的风险。

I think it totally makes sense, but there's gonna have to be a level of education that's done here that's much beyond regular stocks. It's almost, think about it, it's a derivative. So it's like an option. You have to do a lot of education when people start trading options. So anything that's a derivative product of the equity itself takes a lot of understanding so that people can actually understand the risks that they're taking.

Speaker 3

但它确实完全讲得通。而且你知道,过去一年里事情发展得真快,部分原因可能是你们之前提到的,比如新政府上台等等。但就在过去四十八到七十二小时里,监管机构似乎真的开始关注:等等,到底发生了什么?正如你所说,这可能与OpenAI的一些言论有关,但我认为接下来的几周将会非常有趣。这不会是一个可以去钓鱼、然后忘掉的夏天。

But it it it completely makes sense. And, you know, it's just amazing how fast over the last year and part of it you bought you guys bought up earlier, new administration, etcetera, How fast all this stuff is moving? But again, the regulators over the last forty eight hours or seventy two hours seem to have, really spent like, hold on, what's going on? Much of it to your point could be around the, comments from OpenAI, but I think the next couple of weeks this is gonna be a really interesting summer. It's not the, go fishing and forget about it.

Speaker 3

这将会是一个非常、非常有趣的夏天。

This is gonna be a really, really interesting summer.

Speaker 2

是的。而且我认为,不管OpenAI或者一些更大的公司、机构怎么想,我有一个可能比较激进的观点,那就是普通散户投资者其实并不在意这些。我认为他们理解这些内容是非常重要的。对吧?他们需要明白,这并不是股票,他们不会拥有投票权,也不会获得实际持股时才有的股东权益。

Yeah. And, you know, I think to that point, I think regardless of, like, what OpenAI and, I don't know, even, like, bigger companies or institutional might think, I might have a hot take here, but I don't think that the average retail trader cares. I think it's very important for them to understand. Right? They need to understand that this is not equity, that they don't get voting power, like, don't get any of the the shareholder stuff that would come with owning the actual stock.

Speaker 2

我认为理解这一点至关重要,因为人们需要被教育,他们需要知道自己在参与什么。就像他们参与其他类型的合约、杠杆、现货交易一样。然而,我不认为散户会在意这是否是股票,这正是最大的问题所在。因为当你观察很多散户,尤其是年轻的交易者时,他们只想要获得敞口。

And I think understanding that is essential because people need to be educated and, you know, they need to know what they're getting into. The same like they would with with any other kind of contract or leverage or spot or whatever it may be. However, I don't think and I've seen that's the biggest drawback because people are gonna say, oh, it's not equity. I don't think most of retail cares if it's equity or not, and and that's my hot take. Because when you look at a lot, especially retail, especially younger traders, they just want exposure.

Speaker 2

他们只是想赚钱。他们想进入市场,赚一笔,然后退出。如果他们可以进入市场,并买入某只股票的合成版或代币化版本,从中获利,而这是他们以前无法做到的,我想他们会很高兴的。

They just wanna make money. They wanna get in. They wanna make their bag. They wanna get out. If they can get in and, you know, long a synthetic or a tokenized version of a stock, make money off of it because they weren't able to in the past, I think they're happy.

Speaker 2

同样的道理,如果他们现在就能获得五年前或三年前的OpenAI的股权,突然之间,这家公司因为人工智能的发展而成为全球最顶尖的公司,我想人们会非常愿意参与其中。我认为这才是他们真正关心的事情。当然,这可能也伴随着一定的风险,我也看到有人会说,‘有原因它现在是非上市私有公司’,‘有原因它没有公开交易’。

In the same sense that I think that if they can jump in and get access to OpenAI, you know, five years from now, three years from now, all of a sudden, they are just doing wonders. They're the just go to company of the world because of what AI has grown into. If people can get exposure to that, I think that that's what they they care about. And there's probably risks associated, and I've seen people say, well, there's a reason that it's a privately held company. You know, there's a reason that this isn't publicly traded.

Speaker 2

但我想说的是,我想听听你对这个问题的看法。但就我个人而言,我不知道散户是否真的在乎这些。也许这是一件好事,也许是一件坏事,但你可能对此有更深的见解。

But to my point, and I wanna get your opinion on this, but, like, I don't I don't know if retail cares. And maybe that's a good thing. Maybe that's a bad thing, but you'll probably have more insight into that.

Speaker 3

实际上我不认为,正如你所说,散户投资者真正在乎投票权,因为他们的投票本来就很糟糕。但过去几年美国证券交易委员会(SEC)一直在努力改变这一现状,试图促使他们更多地参与投票并提高关注度。是的,我认为监管机构绝对关心这个问题。还有一点让我产生疑问的是,我对此了解得还不够深入,但我想知道这会对股票流通量产生怎样的影响?

I actually don't think, to your point, retail cares about the voting rights because their voting is pretty miserable anyways. But that's been something that the SEC has been trying to change over the last couple of years to get them to vote and take more interest that way. Yeah. I think the regulators absolutely care about this. And, you know, the one thing that it does make me question, and, again, I don't know enough to I haven't dug deep enough into this, but how does it affect float of stocks?

Speaker 3

所以,再次强调,我知道这是一个衍生品问题,但它仍然间接影响着市场上流通股票的数量。比如说,你是否持有的衍生品数量实际上超过了已发行股票的数量?因此我认为,这个问题必须有一个明确的答案。顺便说一句,我并不是想唱反调,我只是想分享一些我目前认为正在被认真考虑的观点。

So, you know, again, that's I know it's a derivative, but it's still indirectly affecting how much shares are out there. So, you know, do you have more derivatives than you actually have stock outstanding? So I do think that that is something that there has to be some sort of answer around. And by the way, I'm not trying to be a naysayer. I'm just trying to give you some of the things that I believe are being thought about right now for why.

Speaker 3

最后一点更多是公关方面的考虑。那就是,当我们遭遇抛售时,不可避免会有人亏钱。这些人会因此回来投诉。不幸的是,一些不道德的律师等可能会试图起诉所有相关方。在这种情况下,这将成为《华尔街日报》的头版新闻。

And then the last thing is more of a PR thing. And that is when we have a sell off, it's going to be inevitable that people will lose some money. Those people will come back. Unfortunately, some unscrupulous, I will say, attorneys, etcetera, may try to start suing everyone in sight. And so with that, you know, that's gonna be a front page story on the Wall Street Journal.

Speaker 3

这对一个产品长期发展来说总是不利的,因为它会削弱公众的信心。我认为我们目前还处于早期阶段,尽管我们都希望快速推进,但任何影响产品信心的因素都会带来问题。期权市场在崩盘后用了好多年才恢复,期货市场也是如此。人们最终才慢慢接受。

That's always bad for a product long term because it hurts confidence. And I think we're in such early innings with this. You're as much as we all wanna move fast, whenever you have anything that hurts confidence in a product, it took the options market a lot of years after the crash. Take futures markets many years. People are finally like, okay.

Speaker 3

现在这些市场已经非常成熟,流动性也非常高。而我们现在还处于早期阶段。正如我所说,我长期来看是支持这个产品的,我只是希望人们能够谨慎行事,避免失去那些40岁以上的人群,因为一旦他们觉得被坑了,就会流失掉一半的用户。这就是我对此的唯一反对意见。

These are very good markets, very liquid markets, etcetera. This is early stages. I would just hate to see because as I said, I am a believer in a longer term. I just want people to be careful so that it's not where you lose peep you know, anybody over 40, you lose 50% of that audience because they think they got screwed or something like that. So that's my only pushback on it.

Speaker 2

是的,我认为你说得完全有道理。人们在进入这个市场之前需要了解一些基本事实,我们必须从正反两方面来看待这个问题。对吧?有好处也有坏处,这也是为什么我们要邀请像你这样的人来参与讨论,这样我们可以从本地视角(从业者视角)表达我们的观点。

Yeah. And, you know, I think that it's I think it's a totally fair point, man. There's there's things that people need to understand when they're getting into this, and we have to look at it through both sides of the lens. Right? There there's a good, there's bad, and that's why we bring people like you on because we can have our opinions as natives.

Speaker 2

我们可能在某些方面会稍微偏向加密货币市场,但我们非常感谢你能从正反两面来分析这个问题。因为我认为这才是公众真正需要理解的地方。他们需要接受教育,需要了解这些信息,然后才能自己做出决策。这也是我们希望引导公众达到的状态。

We're probably gonna be a little bit biased here and there in the favor of the crypto market, but, you know, we do appreciate you. You know, again, just looking at it from both sides because I think that's what people need to understand. They need to be educated. They need to understand, and then they can make these decisions for for themselves. And that's where we wanna get people to.

Speaker 3

是的,我相信自由市场属于自由的人们。让人们自己管理自己的事情吧。但我喜欢思考它对整个行业的影响。

Yeah. I believe. I'm free markets for free men and all that. Let's you know, let people manage their own things. But I just I I like to think about how it affects the industry overall.

Speaker 1

完全正确。归根结底,这是一次技术升级。因此,监管者无法抗拒它,他们只能顺势而为,就像当初互联网出现时一样。当时人们也大惊小怪。

Totally. And it's at the end of the day, it's a technology upgrade. And so regulators can't resist it. They just gotta get on board and, you know, just like with the Internet, it's the same thing. It's like, oh my gosh.

Speaker 1

现在我们可以用电子邮件传递一切信息,现在我们可以浏览网站。监管者只能接受现实,并围绕它制定相应的法规,因为这就是进步,几乎是一种不可避免的趋势。

Now, you know, now we could email everything around. Now we could, look at websites. It's like, alright. Well, we're gonna just have to have regulation form around that because that's just progress. It's, inevitable almost in a sense.

Speaker 1

这有点像这种代币化的主题给人的感觉。

This is kinda what this tokenization theme feels like.

Speaker 3

我同意你的看法,Bryce。不过,有一件事会让我感到紧张,再说一次,我不想深入讨论整个监管问题。

I agree with you, Bryce. The one thing that would make me nervous, though, and, again, I don't wanna get into a whole regulatory thing

Speaker 1

当然。

For sure.

Speaker 3

我只想确保它受到监管,并且在美国至少有一个统一的监管机构,因为你不希望陷入那种混乱的局面。我认为阻碍我们发展的一个因素就是各州各自为政的监管体系。这显然有问题。哦。你们各位,你们知道这些,可能比我还要清楚。

Is I wanna make sure that it's regulatory it it's one regulator, at least in The US, for everybody because you don't wanna get into that situation. I think one of the things that's held us back has been the state by state regulation. It's absolutely off. Oh. And you guys, you know, you guys know that probably better than I do.

Speaker 3

因此,如果我们能实现一个统一的监管机构,这正是SEC(证券交易委员会)和CFTC(商品期货交易委员会)的优势所在。全国只有一个监管机构,这会让事情变得容易得多。有时候看起来过程可能有点漫长,但总比跑遍50个州要好得多。所以这是我特别希望确保实现的一个核心主题。

So if we can get one and and that's the beauty of the SEC and the CFTC. It's one regulator for the entire country. It makes things significantly easier to get things done. It sometimes seems like it's taking a long time, but it's sure better than going to 50 different states to get this done. So that's the that would be an overriding theme that I'd really like to make sure.

Speaker 3

正如你所说,这确实是一项技术升级,但我们知道监管机构有时候会——嗯,我不想说他们故意阻碍,但他们确实会发表自己的意见。只要我们在联邦层面有一个监管机构,那就太棒了。

To your point, it is a technology upgrade, but we know regulators sometimes can get, you know, I won't say get in the way, but have their say there. So as long as we have one regulator federally, boom. Awesome.

Speaker 1

我认为这会随着《清晰法案》(Clarity Act)实现。对吧?我们现在有《清晰法案》,预计市场结构改革大概会在九月左右出台。我觉得大家说这个法案应该会通过,可能就在九月吧。

And I think it's gonna happen with the the Clarity Act. Right? So we've got the Clarity Act, which is the market structure builds coming through hopefully by, you know, September or something. I think people are saying it'll it'll come through. Well, I think, yeah, maybe September.

Speaker 1

对吧?他们在说这个吗?

Right? Where is that what they're saying?

Speaker 3

是的。几周前我有幸和众议员French Hill进行了交流。哇。他是众议院金融委员会的负责人,而且他非常支持这项法案。

Yeah. We I I had the privilege of talking to, representative French Hill couple of weeks. Oh, wow. And he's, head of the congressional or, house finance committee. And he is on board with this bill.

Speaker 3

我必须说,他对加密货币的理解程度之深,让我感到惊讶,没想到一个要处理这么多事务的政界人士能理解得这么透彻。他们非常支持推动这项法案的通过,正如你所说,为整个行业带来清晰的监管框架。如果这个法案最终通过,将是对整个行业最有利的事情。

I will say he truly understands crypto in a way that I did not realize that somebody who's dealing with so many issues would. And so they, you know, very, very much on board to get this done and to give us, to your point, clarity on everything. So I think it would be the best thing for the industry if this passes.

Speaker 1

是的,伙计。我非常、非常希望这件事能发生。很多人也感到相当乐观。但我想确保我们花一些时间好好聊聊IG北美公司在市场上正在做些什么,你们目前在市场中的定位,以及你们所涉及的不同的市场接触点。跟我们谈谈你们的业务情况吧。

Yeah, man. I'm I'm really, really hopeful that happens. And a lot of people are feeling pretty positive, But I want to make sure that we we spend some good time talking about what IG North America is doing in the marketplace, where you guys sit and kind of the the different touch points for the the market that you guys have. Tell us a little bit about the business.

Speaker 3

好的。加密货币业务已经显著扩展了。你也知道,我们曾受到一种叫做SAB 191政策的影响,我就不深入讲了。我相信你们之前在播客的某个时候已经讨论过这个问题。基本上,如果你不自己托管资产而是使用第三方,比如我们使用的是Zero Hash,那你就要额外准备一笔资金,即使这笔钱实际上已经由客户或者由Zero Hash提供了资金。

Yeah. The crypto business has expanded significantly. And, you know, we were subject to something called s a SAB one ninety one, which I won't even go into. I'm sure you guys covered it at some point a while ago on the podcast. Basically, if you didn't custody the assets and use the third party, I, you know, we we use Zero Hash, then you were subject to an additional level of money that you had to put up even though it was already funded by the customer, funded by Zero Hash.

Speaker 3

我们也必须为此注资。这是一次非常糟糕的资本使用。这是我一生中唯一一次推出一个产品时,我甚至不想做广告、不想在任何地方列出它,但即便如此人们还是在使用它,这也显示出市场对加密货币的强烈需求。你们可能并不太喜欢它,但这就是那种最终会被取消的政策。

We also had to fund it. It was a terrible use of capital. It's the only time in my life I've ever had a product where I was trying to not advertise and not really list anywhere and yet it does show the hunger for crypto because people were still using it. You probably didn't love it, but, you know, it's one of those things. That finally came off.

Speaker 3

我们终于能够真正扩展这项业务了。这项业务持续显著增长。再说一次,你可以想想我们公司里的交易者类型,他们交易股票,但其中超过85%的交易仍然是期权和期货。对这些人来说,加密货币自然可以成为他们投资组合的一部分,无论是作为投资标的还是交易标的。他们已经理解复杂的金融产品。

We're able to really expand the business. The business continues to increase significantly. And again, you think about the type of trader that's at our shop, they trade equities, but they really, you know, more than 85% of the trades are still at, options and futures. So these are people who crypto is a natural addition to their portfolio, be it as an investment or as trading. They understand complex products already.

Speaker 3

他们理解复杂的关系。因此对他们来说,加密货币只是另一种交易产品,这简直太棒了。现在,你们之前也提到过,我也非常高兴你们能提到这点。我之前两次有幸和你们一起外出时,我总是强调教育的重要性。我认为持续帮助用户加深对这些产品如何运作的理解是非常重要的。甚至我喜欢看到我们后台收到的那些邮件,问这到底是怎么运作的?

They understand complex relationships. So to them, crypto is just it's another trading product, which is absolutely awesome. Now it's again, and you guys have brought it up, and I I love that you guys, you know, the the two times I've had the privilege of being out with you guys, I always talk about the education. And so I do think it's important that they continue to get more and more educated as to how these products can work. And even the you know, what I like is all the emails we get on the back end of how is this actually happening?

Speaker 3

我是怎么购买这个产品的?人们越了解这些内容,就越有好处。不过,tasty品牌的业务,尤其是tastycrypto.com的加密货币业务,一直在迅速扩展,我们也在不断增加新的币种。就在过去三个月里,我们就新增了20种币。

How am I buying this? And so the more people understand that stuff, the better. But at, you know, the the tasty business, tasty crypto has continued to expand really quickly, and we continue to add coins. Just over the last three months, we've added 20 points.

Speaker 1

对于正在收听的听众来说,他们是否可以在美国各地,甚至世界各地注册一个Tasty账户?他们会把它当作钱包来使用,还是当作交易所?

And for folks who are listening, can they, you know, go create a Tasty account kinda wherever they are in America, anywhere in the world? And could they think of it as a wallet or as an exchange or

Speaker 3

两者都有。我们既有钱包功能。所以,使用钱包没有问题。如果你想用钱包里的资金来为交易账户注资以交易其他产品,你也可以这么做。

both? We we do both. We do have a wallet. And so, you know, no problem to use that. You can actually fund your if you wanna fund your trading account to trade other products with your wallet, you can do so.

Speaker 3

再次强调,我认为——哦,抱歉,打断一下。你可以访问tastytrade.com或者tastycrypto.com,进入网站后,你可以交易股票、期权、期货、股票和加密货币,所有这些都在一个平台上完成。

And so, again, I think oh, sorry about that, guys. Tastytrade.com, you know, and or tastycrypto.com. And you you can go on and and you can trade stocks, options, futures, equities, crypto, all right there.

Speaker 1

这太棒了。伙计,我得赶紧开个账户。我真心希望这能成为其中的一件事情……

That's incredible. Man, I gotta get an account. I would and I'm I'm hoping that this is one of the things

Speaker 3

如果有什么我可以帮您的,请随时告诉我。

If that I can help you, please let me know.

Speaker 1

是的。我正要说我会通过邮件跟进您的助理,来开一个账户。我们会为我们的社区争取一个推荐链接之类的东西,因为如果你们有这类服务的话,我还不太确定。

Yeah. I was gonna say I'm gonna follow-up with your assistant here in email and get get an account. We'll get a referral link for our our community or something like that because if you guys do those, I'm not sure.

Speaker 3

哦,我们绝对可以做到这些。请放心。如果您跟进的话,劳拉,我会确保相关人员知道,并把大家联系起来。那将会非常棒。

Oh, absolute we absolutely do that, please. I will make sure the person, know, if if you follow-up, Laura, I'll make sure we put everybody together. That'd be great.

Speaker 1

好的,我会的。那太好了。好,我们这里有一个简短的快问快答环节。

Will do. No. That that'll be awesome. Okay. We've got a little lightning round that we like to do.

Speaker 1

我们最后用这个环节来轻松一下。再次说明,我们在节目中说的任何话都不是投资建议。这些都只是我们个人的观点。当然,就您自己的交易风格而言,您是日内交易者还是波段交易者?

We'll close it out here with just some fun. Again, obviously, nothing that we ever say on this show's investment advice. These are all just our own personal opinions. But Sure. You know, for your own style, are you a day trader or a swing trader?

Speaker 3

可能更偏向日内交易。

Probably more day.

Speaker 1

日内交易。好的。那您会持有仓位过夜吗?

Day trading. Okay. So do you go to positions?

Speaker 3

这要看具体的产品。期货的话,日内交易;期权和股票的话,波段交易。

How about day depending on the the product? Futures, day. Options and equity swing.

Speaker 1

明白了,很好。现货交易还是杠杆交易?

Okay. Perfect. Love it. Spot or leverage?

Speaker 3

只用杠杆,因为我对期货市场更有经验,毕竟我已经交易了很多很多年了,当然,除了克里帕(Kripa)和克里帕(Krippa)。是的。

Leverage only because I have more experience in the futures market than, you know, I've traded them for so many, many years except for, of course, Kripa. Krippa. Yeah.

Speaker 1

技术面还是基本面?

Technicals or fundamentals?

Speaker 3

更多是基本面,但其实还有第三个选择,那就是概率,这也是期权所基于的核心。实际上,这才是我真正关注的东西。

More fundamentals, but there's a third choice, which is probabilities, which is what options are based on. And really, that's what I look at.

Speaker 2

给我们稍微讲讲

Tell us a little bit

Speaker 1

详细一点。我们要深入探讨一下。这次我们不采用快问快答的方式。

more about that. We're gonna double click. You know, we're gonna take a step out of the lightning round.

Speaker 3

好的。如果你了解期权的本质,你会发现它们实际上反映的是巨大的概率信息,告诉你期权在到期日处于实值状态的可能性。所以,无论我交易什么,我都会先看概率,看标的资产(比如说股票)届时可能处于什么价位。你也可以把它用在加密货币上,查看加密货币的期权,然后说,好的。

Alright. If you think what options are, they're only giant probabilities that tell you the probability of an option being in the money on expiration day. So whenever I trade anything, I look at what are the probabilities of where the, we'll say, stock for ease of this stock underlying is gonna be. You can use it for crypto too. You look at the crypto options and say, okay.

Speaker 3

比如,我正在关注到9月份的情况。这里显示的是比特币在9月份交易价格达到120美元的概率。可能目前粗略估计一下,我记得大概是41%左右。这意味着

Here is maybe I'm looking out till September. Here is the probability that Bitcoin will be trading at a 120 by September. Maybe it's a you know, right now, just off the top of my head, I believe it's about a 41%. So that means it's

Speaker 1

这是一个delta值为41的期权吗?

a 41 delta option?

Speaker 3

是的。概率和delta值略有不同,但大致上可以看作是delta值。在我们的平台上,我们显示的是叠加了波动率的概率,也就是实值概率。但正如我所说,delta值可以作为概率的近似值。因此你可以认为,有41%的概率价格会达到那个位置。

Yeah. Probabilities are a little different than I but with thumbnail, it's delta. Well, if you just look at we we have probabilities on the platform, probabilities within the money because it overlays volatility. But delta in in probabilities are gonna be you can as I said, Bryce, use it in our deltas is our thumbnail. And so you can say there's a 41% probability that will be there.

Speaker 3

好的。我认为这个概率足够高,值得我去支付当前的权利金,在9月份到期时处于实值状态吗?正如你提到的,我的持有周期是多久?如果我以3美元买入这个看涨期权,它现在涨到了5美元,我会卖掉吗?或者我是否应该直接买入比特币现货。

Okay. Do I think that probability is high enough in order for me to go out and pay whatever the premium is right there to be in the money on September? And to your point, what's my what's my holding period? If I bought it this call at $3 and we're gonna go this $5 will I sell it? Or if I'm buying the spot of Bitcoin itself.

Speaker 3

好的。我认为支付这个价格是有意义的,因为概率支持这个决策。

Okay. I think that that probability makes sense to to pay this price.

Speaker 1

太棒了,这个主意很好。好的,我们回到快问快答环节。我们有像 RSI、MACD 这样的图表指标,或者纯粹的价格走势。

Love it. That's awesome. Okay. We'll we'll go back to the lightning round. We've got chart chart indicators like RSI, MACD, or pure price action.

Speaker 3

价格走势。

Price action.

Speaker 1

哦,这个问题很好。是继续加仓赚钱的股票,还是去加仓亏钱的股票?

Oh, this is a good one. Buying your winners or buying your losers.

Speaker 3

我不太明白你的意思。

I'm not sure what you mean by that.

Speaker 1

基本上就是说,对赚钱的股票继续加仓,或者对亏钱的股票加倍投入。

Basically, like, double down on a winner or double down

Speaker 3

对亏钱的股票加倍投入。哦,我明白了。我可能更倾向于加仓亏钱的股票。

on a loser. Oh, I see. I'm more probably buying your losers.

Speaker 1

好的。这样可以更好地降低平均成本,对吧?

Okay. And to get a better dollar cost average kind of on on the thing

Speaker 3

是的,就像我说的,我是以平均价格入场的,同时我也在玩概率游戏。

that you were Yeah. Like I said, I go in with an average price, and I also playing the probability game.

Speaker 1

太喜欢了。这个游戏有太多玩法,这正是它的美妙之处。再问最后几个问题。找到一个能翻10倍的完美标的更重要,还是每天控制风险更重要?

Love it. And there's so many ways to play this game. That's the beauty of it. And a couple more questions. What's more important, finding the perfect gem for a 10 x or mitigating risk every day?

Speaker 3

每天控制风险更重要。

Mitigating risk every day.

Speaker 1

必须坚持留在游戏中。那

Gotta stay in the game. That

Speaker 2

就是我看到人们在加密货币领域犯的最大错误所在。是的。他们看到这些人晒出盈亏报表,他们听到某个人投入一千美元然后变成百万富翁的故事。所有人都犯了错误,因为他们太专注于寻找那个隐藏的加密瑰宝,期待百倍、千倍甚至一万倍的回报,却忽略了风险控制。是的。

is where I see people go so wrong in crypto Yeah. Is they see these people posting p and l's. They hear the story of this person put a thousand dollars in, and they became a millionaire. Everyone goes wrong because they're so focused on finding the hidden gem in crypto that will 100 x, thousand x, 10,000 x, etcetera, and they don't mitigate risk. Yeah.

Speaker 2

我之所以想强调这一点,是因为我完全认同这个播客中提到的所有观点,风险控制正是长期成功者与短期赢家之间的区别所在。

I just wanted to stress this because I could not agree more on any point of this entire podcast that risk mitigation is what separates the people who succeed long term and the people who are short term winners and don't succeed long term.

Speaker 1

完全同意。而且风险有很多种。比如,我最近和一个人聊天,他损失了一大笔钱,而他当时做的是市场中性交易。对吧?你怎么会在市场中性交易中损失一大笔钱呢?

Totally. I and there's so many different levels of risk. Like, I was talking to somebody recently who who lost a big chunk of change, and he was in a in a market neutral trade. Okay. How do you lose a bunch of money in the market neutral trade?

Speaker 1

嗯,是协议风险。那个协议失效了。有人留了后门,或者桥接过于中心化。结果被黑客攻击,现在他损失了一大笔钱。人们以为,你知道的,他需要,比如说,一个非常聪明的人。

Well, protocol risk. The protocol went defunct. Some somebody had a some kind of backdoor or the bridge was too centralized. There was a hack, and now he's, you know, stuck out a bunch of money. And so people think, you know, he needs, like, you know, very smart guy.

Speaker 1

这不是我的数学问题,也不是我的程序问题,只是我忽略了一些我没有真正考虑到的风险,因为那属于异常风险之类的情况。风险实在太多了。我的意思是,人们似乎已经忘记了从FTX、Genesis、BlockFi、Voyager等事件中本应学到的教训,这样的例子不胜枚举。

It wasn't my math. It wasn't my programs. It was just risk that I didn't really account for because it was an abnormal risk kind of thing. Like, so there's just so much risk. I mean, no did I guess people are forgetting the lessons that we learned from FTX and Genesis and BlockFi and Voyager and and the list goes on and on.

Speaker 3

牛市往往会让人这样,Bryce。

Bull markets tend to do that, Bryce.

Speaker 1

是的,没错。所以这就是为什么历史总是惊人地相似,对吧?

Yeah. No. It's so true, man. And so that's why history rhymes. Right?

Speaker 1

因为人们往往会忘记过去的教训。那么,我最后一个问题是关于Tasty和你们提供的强大工具的。在闪电问答环节,我想问一下,你们平台有没有哪个工具特别能提升散户交易者的体验?或者有没有哪个功能是你们特别想推荐的?

Because people kinda forget the the problems of the past. Well, last question I have for you is really just about Tasty and the powerful tools. Is there one and again, this part of the lightning round. Is there one tool that you guys offer that kind of makes it makes the retail trading experience much more powerful, or do you have, like, a favorite aspect that you wanna shout out about the platforms?

Speaker 3

我们提供分析功能。它能让你分析自己的持仓,并允许你添加一些所谓的“模拟持仓”,来测试:如果我执行这个操作,会对我的整体持仓产生什么影响?对我的购买力有什么影响?我账户中有多少资金会被占用?

We analyze. So it gives you the ability to analyze your position to add, I'll call them, fake positions to it to say, okay. If I were to do this, what does it mean to my overall position? What does it mean to my buying power? How much of my account am I using up to do this?

Speaker 3

因此,它能让你尽可能地提前做好规划。我们谈论的是降低风险。那么,还有什么比模拟一些非常糟糕的情况更好的降低风险的方式呢?再说一次,每当我进行一笔交易时,我总是从最坏的情景开始考虑,因为一旦你明白了最坏的情况,就像我们谈到的情绪,就能大大减少情绪的影响。

So it allows you to plan through as much as humanly possible beforehand. We're talking about mitigating risk. Well, there's no better way to mitigate risk than to run through some really bad scenarios. And, again, whenever I make a trade, I always start with what's worst case scenario because once you understand worst case scenario, we talked about emotions. It takes a lot of the emotion out of it.

Speaker 3

我的意思是,当你亏钱的时候你当然还是会生气。是的。但至少你不会做出那种‘天哪,我现在必须马上这么做’的决定。因为你已经提前计划过了。

I mean, you'll still be pissed when you lose money. Yeah. At least you won't make a decision like, oh my god. I have to do this right now. You'll have planned it through.

Speaker 3

对我来说,这是你能做的最重要的事情之一。不,实际上,无论你是哪个层次的交易者,都是如此。

And to me, it's one of the most important things you can do. No. Actually, no matter what level of trader you are.

Speaker 1

是的。我完全同意。我们常说的一句格言就是:计划你的交易,然后交易你的计划。说到这点,我们还常说另一句话:逻辑和情绪永远不会同时存在于大脑中。所以当你情绪非常激动的时候——我妻子特别喜欢这句话。

Yeah. I I couldn't have said it better. We always say, one of our mantras is plan your trade and trade your plan just to that point. And one of the other things we also say is logic and emotion never occupy the brain at the same time. And so if you're feeling really emotional my wife loves this one.

Speaker 1

当你情绪非常激动的时候,你很可能不会做出非常理性的判断。因此你不应该把这种情绪带入市场,因为它会干扰你的判断力,让你赚得更少。而我们都希望在这里赚钱。我们不想变得过于情绪化。这就是为什么

If you're feeling really emotional, you're probably not acting super logical. And so you really can't bring that emotion into the markets because it'll cloud your your judgment, and you'll you'll make less money. And we all want we all wanna just make money here. We don't wanna get too too emotional. That's what what

Speaker 3

我说啊,别用这句话。我在家用了36年的婚姻经验告诉你,这句话在家里还是少用为妙。爱

I say don't don't use that. I I I've been married over thirty six years. Don't use that one too often at home. Love

Speaker 1

它。嗯,JJ,感谢你与我们分享这些智慧,无论是关于市场还是婚姻,以及其他各种话题。真的非常精彩。我们很期待后续的交流。

it. Well well, JJ, we appreciate all of your, you know, your wisdom that you've shared with us both about the markets and and marriage and and all such things. But no. We're really excited. We're definitely gonna follow-up.

Speaker 1

我们会为我们的社区提供一个推荐链接,并传播关于Tasty Crypto以及你们团队正在构建的一切的好消息。顺便问一下,大家可以在哪里关注你的旅程?你在LinkedIn或Twitter上吗?

We'll get a referral link for our community and and spread the spread the good word about Tasty Crypto and all things you guys are building. You know, where can people kinda follow your journey? Are you on on LinkedIn or Twitter or anything?

Speaker 3

是的,在Twitter上我是d j j kinahan。我也有LinkedIn账号,名字是j j kinahan,不过我在Twitter上发的内容比较多。我每周一、三、五为forbes.com撰写专栏文章。

Yeah. On Twitter, I'm at d j j kinahan. And so I I I and I am on LinkedIn, j j kinahan, but I post, I post a decent amount on Twitter. I I write a column, three days a week for forbes.com. So Monday, Wednesday, Fridays, I write a column for them also.

Speaker 1

哦,太棒了。有很多地方可以找到JJ并关注你的动态。我们会在节目备注中提供相关链接,欢迎大家关注。那JJ,我们下次再见了。

Oh, wow. That's awesome. Lots of places to find JJ and to follow along with him. We'll have links to that in the show notes, so please follow along. And, JJ, until next time.

Speaker 3

各位,能回来我感到非常高兴。非常感谢你们再次邀请我。祝你们一周愉快,如果过段时间我们没再联系,也祝你们有一个愉快的夏天。

Guys, always always a pleasure. I really appreciate you having me back. Have a have a great week. And if I don't talk to you for a little bit, have a great summer.

Speaker 1

阿门。

Amen.

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