第740集：为什么《清晰法案》并不重要——前CFTC主席克里斯·詹卡洛的观点

八月是整理衣柜的好时机，把夏天没穿过的衣服处理掉，为秋季衣橱做准备，再升级一下那些你每周都会穿的基础款。

August is a good time to clean up the closet a little bit, get rid of the summer stuff that you didn't use, prepare for your autumn wardrobe, and upgrade the basics that you'll actually reach for every week.

这就是我喜欢Quince的原因。

That's why I like Quince.

他们做的衣服数量不多但品质更好，摸起来很有质感，却没有奢侈品的溢价。

They make fewer better pieces that feel premium, but don't come with the luxury markup.

对我来说，我最常穿的是那件100%欧洲亚麻抽绳沙滩裤和配套的衬衫。

For me, the piece I keep coming back to is the 100% European linen drawstring beach pants with the matching shirt.

我特别喜欢在海边度假时穿它们，因为很方便。

I love wearing them on beach vacations because they're easy.

透气又舒适，看起来搭配得很用心，但又不会让人觉得用力过猛。

They're breathable, comfortable, and they look put together without feeling like I'm trying too hard.

白天随便一套就能出门，在水边穿也行，晚上稍微打扮一下也合适。

Throw them on during the day, wear them by the water, or dress up a little bit at night.

这种百搭的单品才是我真正会穿的，因为用途多样。

That's the kind of staple I actually use because it has versatility.

而这正是Quince做得好的地方。

And that's really what Quince does well.

他们专注于那些更实用的日常单品，比如超柔软的有机棉T恤，还有高级木兰和羊绒毛衣，可以从休闲工作日穿到外出晚餐。

They specialize in everyday pieces that work harder like ultra soft organic cotton tees and premium magnolia and cashmere sweaters that can go from a casual workday to dinner out.

如果你的基础款开始显得旧了，Quince让你轻松升级，有高级牛仔和定制斜纹裤，只要60美元起，就能拥有你期待从奢侈设计师品牌那里得到的剪裁、结构和优质面料。

If your basics are starting to feel worn out, Quince makes it easy to upgrade with premium denim and tailored chinos from just $60 with the fit structure and quality fabrics you'd expect from a luxury designer brand.

Quince的所有商品价格都比同类品牌低50%到80%。

Everything at Quince is priced 50 to 80% less than similar brands.

他们直接与道德工厂合作，省去中间商，所以你付的是高品质的钱，而不是品牌溢价。

They work directly with ethical factories and cut out the middleman, so you're paying for high quality, not brand markup.

而且不光是衣服。

And it's not just clothing.

Quince已经成了从酒店级床品和浴室用品到高级厨具和旅行必备品的首选。

Quince has become a go to for everything from hotel quality bedding and bath essentials to premium cookware and travel must haves.

朋友们，你们听我讲了这么久，我一直告诉你们要去quince.com看看，因为那个网站太有趣了，有那么多选择。

Guys, you've been hearing it for so long now how I tell you you have to go to quince.com because the website is so fun for all the options that they have.

这个网站逛起来特别有意思，价格也真的没话说。

It's a great website to go click around and the prices can't be beat.

升级你的日常穿搭，下载Quince App，享受专属优惠。

Upgrade your everyday, download the Quince app for app exclusive offers.

访问 quince.com/crypto10one。

Go to quince.com/crypto10one.

享受免运费和365天退换服务，现在加拿大和英国也能用。

Get free shipping on your order and 365 returns now available in Canada and The UK too.

网址是 quince.com/crypto10one。

That's quince.com/crypto10one.

好了，各位。

Alright, everybody.

我们回到了由TIE赞助的Out East峰会现场。

We're back at the Out East Summit sponsored by the TIE.

我们玩得很开心。

We're having a lot of fun.

今天我有幸请到了一位非常杰出的嘉宾，前美国商品期货交易委员会主席克里斯·詹卡洛。

I've got a fantastic distinguished guest joining me today, Chris Giancarlo, the former CFTC chairman.

克里斯，感谢你来做客我们的节目。

Chris, thank you for joining us on the show.

布莱斯，在下了这么多雨之后，能在这个美好的日子里和你一起，真是太好了。

Bryce, really good to be with you on this beautiful day after all this rain.

今天早晨真不错。

It's a nice morning.

是啊。

I know.

昨天还是龙卷风警报，今天就变成微风了。

We went from tornado warning yesterday to Nice breeze.

阳光明媚。

Beautiful sunshine.

希望这微风能一直吹下去。

Hope the breeze stays a breeze

是的。

and Yeah.

不过，我们有很多话题要跟你聊。

It's not anything Well, look, we've got a lot to unpack with you.

作为前CFTC主席，你真的为这个领域帮了大忙。

Former CFTC chairman, you've really helped the space.

我觉得你也被称为‘加密老爸’，所以你知道，很多人觉得监管者总是把事情搞得很复杂。

I think you're also known as Crypto Dad, so you know, a lot of people think regulators, they make things really tough.

你确实为加密货币打开了大门，还写了一本关于它的书。

You've really helped open the doors for crypto, you wrote a book on it.

所以我想让我们的观众先了解一下你是谁，你在CFTC做了些什么，然后再聊聊你现在在做什么。

So I wanna get our audience a little acquainted with who you are, a little bit about what you've done at the CFTC, before we kind of get into what you're doing now.

是的，就像你提到的，大家叫我前CFTC主席，但我在去那里之前，在私营企业干了三十年，创办了一家公司叫GFI Group，后来在纽约证券交易所上市了。这家公司为做市商创建了市场平台，让他们能够进行复杂金融产品——信用违约互换——的复杂交易。

Yeah, so as you mentioned, people reference me as former CFTC chair, but I spent thirty years in private industry before going and built a company, GFI Group, that we eventually took public onto the New York Stock Exchange, a company that created marketplaces for market makers to engage in sophisticated trading of complex financial products called credit default swaps.

所以我的背景其实是在行业和市场里。

So my background really is in industry and in markets.

所以我把这种经验带到了政府工作中。

And so I took that with me when I served in government.

我很荣幸被奥巴马总统提名，后来又被特朗普总统重新任命，担任该机构的主席。

I was honored to be, nominated by president Obama and then reappointed by president Trump to serve as chairman of the agency.

我觉得我带来的理念是，创新不应该被害怕。

And I think what I brought to it was an approach that said innovation isn't something to be feared.

而是应该被拥抱。

It's something to be embraced.

对。

Right.

监管的核心就是要与时俱进，建立适应新创新的监管框架，不是阻碍创新，而是顺应它。

That that the whole point of regulation is to move with the times and to bring regulatory frameworks that suit the new innovation, not to hold back innovation, but to to go with it.

我有一本新书将在十月份出版，叫《加密老爸的新冒险》。

And I've got a new book coming out in October called The New Adventures of Crypto Dad.

好的。

Alright.

我喜欢这个书名。

I like it.

这本书里我会讲到，特朗普第一届政府结束时我们停在了哪里，拜登政府期间事情似乎有点偏离轨道，是的。

In which I'm going to talk about where we left things at the end of the first Trump administration, where things seem to be going a little bit sideways during the Biden administration Yeah.

以及为什么我们现在又回到了一个不惧怕创新、反而真正利用创新的监管环境，这种环境既符合有序市场的要求，也符合合理监管的标准，但不再害怕创新，而是真正具有前瞻性。

And why we're now back to a regulatory environment that doesn't fear innovation but actually looks to exploit innovation in a way that's consistent with orderly markets, that's consistent with proper regulation, but is not fearful of innovation, is actually forward looking on innovation.

太棒了。

I love it.

我记得你《加密老爸》那本书的副标题是《为货币的未来而战》。

I think the subtitle of your Crypto Dad book, Recalling From Memory, is The Fight for the Future of Money.

对。

Yes.

我写了一本书叫《加密革命：你的未来金融指南》。

And I wrote a book called Crypto Revolution, Your Guide to the Future of Finance.

所以我们俩的书名还挺呼应的。

And so we got a little play there.

对。

Yeah.

两者在精神上都是革命性的斗争。

Both revolutionary fighting in spirit.

你为货币的未来在争取什么？

What are you fighting for the future of money for?

对吧？

Right?

比如说，是为了……

Like, is it for

这个问题问得好。

That's a great question.

是的。

Yeah.

请说吧。

Go for it.

展开说说。

Open up.

好问题。

Great question.

因为这项创新的前景，它代表着互联网的新浪潮。

Because the promise of this innovation, it's it's a it's a new wave of the Internet.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yes.

所以，互联网正在对有价值的事物做它已经对信息做过的事情。

And and so the Internet doing to things of value what it's already done to things of information.

那么互联网的第一波浪潮做了什么？

And what did the first wave of the internet do?

它让普通人更容易获取信息，对吧？

It made information far more accessible to the common person, right?

它把原本存放在图书馆和百科全书里的信息，直接放到了我们的手机上，对吧？中间省去了大量中介环节。

It took information that was housed in libraries and en encyclopedias and made it available on our mobile devices, right, without a ton of intermediaries to get to it.

这一波互联网浪潮，正在对有价值的东西做同样的事情。

This wave of the Internet is doing the same thing with things of value.

它让这些东西变得人人可及。

It's making it regularly accessible.

想想稳定币就知道了。

Just think about stablecoins.

稳定币让全世界的人都能自主选择自己想要的货币政策、货币体系和货币，而不是由政府来强制规定。

Stablecoins allow people all over the world to opt into the monetary policy and monetary system and the currency of their choice rather than having it dictated to them by their government.

所以它创造了一种民主化的力量。

So it creates a democratizing force.

我之所以称它为‘未来的争夺战’，是因为问题在于：它到底能不能真正赋能普通人，还是说，就像互联网一样，新的等级制度会再次出现。

The reason why I call it the fight for the future is the question of whether it will truly be empowering for the average person or whether hierarchies new hierarchies will emerge just as it did in the Internet.

对吧？

Right?

现在想查信息，我们就去YouTube。

Now if we want information, we go to YouTube.

或者用AI。

We go to AI.

但这些信息真的完全对我们开放吗？还是又被新的权力层级控制了？

Is it really truly accessible to us, or is it once again controlled by new hierarchies?

同样的问题也在这里：我们是要用政府监控金融交易，换成大科技公司监控交易吗？

And the same thing is the question here is, will we trade government surveillance of our financial transactions for big tech surveillance of our transactions?

这才是真正的问题所在。

That's really the question.

我认为《天才法案》让稳定币合法化，在很多方面都很好地表明了美国决心站在这次创新的前沿。

I think the Genius Act, which legalized stablecoins, in many, many ways is a fabulous statement of American determination to be at the forefront of this innovation.

是的。

Yeah.

然而，《天才法案》也强制实施了《银行保密法》，这是一部监控法律。

And yet, the Genius Act imposes the Bank Secrecy Act, which is a surveillance law.

这跟保密无关。

It's not about secrecy.

实际上是让我们的交易变得透明——

It's actually about making our own Lack

透明。

of secrecy.

就是缺乏隐私，然后把这个要求强加给这项新创新。

The lack of secrecy, and imposes that on this new innovation.

所以，这是前进两步？

So so two steps forward?

我们是在后退两步，还是后退一步？

Are we taking two steps back or one step back?

我们到底在往哪个方向走？

Where are we moving here?

这些就是我第一本书里讨论过的问题，当然，这本新书里也谈到了。

And those are the things I address in my addressed in my first book, but certainly address in this new book.

说得太好了。

I love it.

我想深入探讨一下这个概念——我们其实都受制于货币政策。

Know, kind of just to double click on the concept of, you know, we're subjected to a monetary policy.

在美国，我们很幸运。

In America, we're privileged.

在加密货币领域，我们更是得天独厚。

We're very privileged in crypto.

实际上，法国人把这叫作‘过分的特权’。

In fact, the French call it the Exorbitant privilege.

过分的特权。

Exorbitant privilege.

没错，所以我们享受着最好的货币政策。很多人，包括我的一些朋友，都会问：搞加密货币，我们还需要比特币干什么？

Exactly, and so we get the best monetary policy, and a lot of people, I talk to my friends, like crypto, what do we need Bitcoin for?

他们会说，美联储不就是干这个的吗？但问题是，你手里有信用卡啊，警官。

That's what the Federal Reserve is for, but it's like, you you got a credit card, officer.

你可以使用这些借贷工具。

You have access to these borrow lend facilities.

你可以进行兑换。

You could swap.

你可以开一个证券账户。

You could open a brokerage account.

你可以买到世界上任何一只ETF，但你知道吗？

You could get any ETF in the world, but guess what?

你属于全球前10%的人群，而另外90%的人根本接触不到这些。

You're in the top 10%, and there's a 90% of the other world who doesn't have access to any of that,

这正是加密货币存在的意义。

and that's what crypto's for.

没错。

Exactly.

你知道，在讨论加密货币之前，现有的金融体系——是的。

You know, the existing financial system, before we get into crypto Yeah.

这一切都建立在拥有认证身份的基础上。

Is all premised on one having credentialed identity.

没错。

Bingo.

如果你没有认证身份，只是个山那边的普通人，那确实。

If you don't have credential if you're just Joe from the other side of the mountain Yeah.

你就无法进入现有的金融体系，因为你没有认证身份。

You cannot access the existing financial system because you do not have credentialed identity.

对。

Right.

你可以用现金系统。

You can access the cash system.

你可以找

You can access

高利贷，月息30%。

a loan shark for 30% a month

或者按月算。

or month.

但现金交易也是可以的，对吧？

But you can do cash transactions as well, right?

给人家一张十美元钞票，不需要身份证明。

You don't need identity to give somebody a $10 bill.

确实如此。

Bear out.

对吧？

Right, right?

但你现在没法进入现有的金融体系，因为那个体系就是建立在身份认证基础上的。

But you can't access the current financial system, which is premised on that.

数字化代币系统的美妙之处在于，我们可能重新回到一个不需要身份认证的系统——除非政府介入说，这样不行，我们不同意。

The beauty of a digitally tokenized system is we may get back to, once again, a system that doesn't require credentialed identity unless governments step in and say, Not good enough for us.

我明白。

I know.

因为我们想知道每个人都在做什么，所以他们强制推行了身份凭证。

Because we wanna know everything everybody's doing, so they impose a credential identity.

在一个有80亿人口的世界里，大约有15亿人没有身份凭证，他们就被排除在金融资源之外。

And in a world of 8,000,000,000 people, where roughly a billion and a half do not have credential identity, they're excluded from financial wherewithal.

是的。

Yeah.

而且他们的政府推行的政策比我们想象的糟糕得多，尤其是在通货膨胀方面。

And their governments have these policies that are way worse than anything that we think, especially with inflation.

我们觉得，好吧，拜登政府时期我们有9%的通货膨胀。

We think, okay, back in the Biden administration we had 9% inflation.

我记得那个数据，当时大家都觉得天哪，太可怕了，但看看阿根廷，看看津巴布韦，你知道，通货膨胀率高达几十万个百分点。

I remember that print, and everybody was like, oh my gosh, is horrible, but it's like, look at Argentina, look at Zimbabwe, you know, hundreds of thousands of percentage points of inflation.

所以，是的，这真是一个疯狂的两极分化。

And so, yeah, it's just a crazy dichotomy.

但我确实想深入探讨一下

But I do wanna dive

这就是稳定币的关键所在，我觉得很多人都忽略了——你可以选择退出那些通胀环境，自由选择你想要的金融货币政策和货币。

And that's the big thing about stablecoins I think a lot of people miss, the ability to opt out of those inflationary environments and choose a financial monetary policy and currency of your choice.

对。

Yeah.

不知道你怎么样，但我总是突然发现该吃晚饭了。

I don't know about you, but dinner sneaks up on me all the time.

打开冰箱才发现，手头没有现成的蛋白质食材。

I'll open the fridge and realize I have no protein ready.

那时候，我可不想再跑去商店，临时采购一趟，还得碰运气看店里还剩什么肉或汉堡。

And at that point, I'm not trying to go to the store, make a last minute grocery run, and gamble on whatever meats or burgers are left at the store.

所以，奥马哈牛排就是个很好的冰箱储备选择。

That's why Omaha Steaks is a great freezer move.

就像家里有个信得过的肉铺，在最需要的时候随时有优质蛋白质。

It's like having a trusted butcher at home and quality protein when you need it the most.

奥马哈牛排凭借一百多年的历史，赢得了这样的口碑。

Omaha Steaks has earned its reputation with over a hundred years.

就是那种在全国各地厨房里都备受信赖的牛肉，直接送到你家门口。

It's the same beef trusted in kitchens across the country, shipped straight to your door.

牛排馆的品质，却没有牛排馆的价格。

Steakhouse quality without the steakhouse prices.

你家人会以为这顿饭花了好几个小时，其实并没有。

Your family will think dinner took hours, but it didn't.

只要几分钟。

Just minutes.

如果你还没试过，那个汉堡完美组合套餐是绝佳的入门选择。

And if you never tried them, the burger perfection flight is the perfect place to start.

你会得到20个优质牛排汉堡，用的是五种不同部位的牛排肉。

You get 20 premium steak burgers made from five different cuts of steak.

四个菲力牛排汉堡、四个纽约客牛排汉堡、四个肋眼牛排汉堡、四个牛胸肉汉堡和四个牛腰肉汉堡。

Four filet mignon burgers, four New York strip burgers, four rib eye burgers, four brisket burgers, and four sirloin burgers.

各位，这简直就是汉堡界的山寨币篮子啊。

Guys, this is the altcoin basket of burgers right here.

如果我和布莱恩一起做这个节目，我们肯定会五五分，因为你知道我们夏天多喜欢烧烤。

If me and Brian were on the rundown, we would be divvying these up fifty fifty because you know how we like to grill in the summer.

所以你收到的不仅仅是一盒汉堡，而是不同的风味、不同的口感，还有真正的牛排馆级别的多样性，可以随时扔到烤架上，或者工作日快速烹饪。

So you're not just getting a box of burgers, you're getting different flavor profiles, different textures, and real steakhouse style variety you can throw on the grill or cook up fast during the week.

今天就到 omahasteaks.com 试试汉堡完美组合吧。

Try the burger perfection flight at omahasteaks.com today.

20个顶级牛排汉堡只要79.99美元，使用优惠码 beef 还能再减35美元。

That's 20 premium steak burgers for just $79.99 plus get $35 off with the promo code beef.

网址是 omahasteaks.com，结账时输入优惠码 beef 立减35美元。

That's omahasteaks.com promo code beef for $35 off at checkout.

条款适用。

Terms apply.

详情请见网站。

See site for details.

现在大家都在谈论人工智能，但真正重要的人工智能是那种能帮你节省时间、帮你做出更明智的决策、减轻你工作负担的。

Everybody is talking about AI right now, but the AI that actually matters is the kind that saves you time, helps you make smarter decisions, and takes work off your plate.

如果你在经营电商生意，物流就是那种要么让你顺利运转，要么让你彻底卡壳的事情之一。

And if you're running an e commerce business, shipping is one of those things that can either keep you moving or completely slow you down.

所以我喜欢ShipStation。

That's why I like ShipStation.

它是一个专为电商企业打造的一站式订单履行平台，其人工智能基于数十年来全球数十亿次货运的真实物流数据训练而成。

It's an end to end order fulfillment platform built for ecommerce businesses, and its AI is trained on decades of real shipping data from billions of shipments across the world.

这样一来，你就不用同时应付一大堆不同的工具，ShipStation能帮你掌控全局。

So instead of juggling a bunch of different tools, ShipStation helps you stay in control.

它可以在库存不足时提醒你，推荐最优的承运商和费率，自动执行任务，帮助你在业务增长的同时节省时间。

It can alert you when your stock is low, recommend the best carrier selections and rates, automate tasks, help you save time as you grow.

你还能获得跨销售渠道的库存同步、自动比价、品牌化退货门户，以及会计和CRM软件的集成，所有这些都在一个平台上完成。

You also get inventory syncing across sales channels, automatic rate shopping, a branded returns portal, and integrations with accounting and CRM software all in one place.

如果我在经营一家电商店铺，这正是我想要的那种工具，因为一旦订单开始涌入，你肯定不希望物流成为拖后腿的环节。

If I were running an e commerce store, this is exactly the kind of tool I'd want because once the orders start coming in, you don't want shipping to be the thing that's holding you back.

超过100万家企业已经信赖ShipStation来优化和扩展他们的物流业务。

Over 1,000,000 businesses have trusted ShipStation to optimize and scale their shipping.

你越早切换，就越早开始节省时间和金钱。

The sooner you switch, the sooner you start saving time and money.

今天就注册ShipStation，访问shipstation.com并使用优惠码crypto，即可免费使用六十天。

Get started with ShipStation today and get sixty days free at shipstation.com with code crypto.

网址是shipstation.com，优惠码crypto。

That's shipstation.com, code crypto.

Shipstation.com，优惠码crypto。

Shipstation.com, code crypto.

税费和手续费另计。

Taxes and fees apply.

我特别好奇，你知道，能邀请你上节目真是莫大的荣幸，就想听听你和华盛顿那边的一些老伙计，还有以前在华尔街共事的朋友们，私下里是怎么聊这些的。

So I'm so curious just to, you know this is a great honor to have you on the show and, like, just get inside the conversations that you have with some of your other buddies, right, in DC where you're working, some of your other buddies that you used to, you know, rub shoulders with in Wall Street.

他们会不会说：‘克里斯，你真搞加密货币那套了？’

And they're like, Chris, you're you're really doing the crypto thing?

他们现在接受了吗？

Like, are are they are they bought in yet?

那些传统金融圈的人，对吧？所以，我想先透露一点

Is traditional, you know, financial folks So, look, I I wanna give a teaser to

给听众，关于我的新书《新冒险》，因为书里就收录了这些对话。

the audience for my new book, The New Adventures, because it it has these conversations in it.

我得

I I need to

读一读。

read it.

我已经开始预购了。

I've set the Preordering it.

在白宫的一些会议上讨论过这个。

In some of the White House meetings on this.

我描绘了一些与监管机构会面的场景，包括拜登政府时期。

I've set the scene for some meetings with other regulators, including during the Biden administration.

是的。

Yeah.

没问题。

Sure.

我觉得我搞清楚了他们为什么在宣布反加密货币以及对加密货币开战时那么积极。

And I think I get to what made them tick when they announced an anti crypto and a war against crypto.

我想我也深入了解了加密货币圈子里一些关键人物的真实面貌，比如萨姆·班克曼-弗里德。

I think I get what what I also contain some real intimate looks at some of the characters of crypto, people like Sam Bankman Fried.

对。

Yep.

像肖恩·科普兰这样的人，他是假日币的发明者。

People like Shane Copeland, the inventor of Holiday.

对。

Yeah.

所以我鼓励你们的听众。

And so I encourage your listeners.

不过让我先给大家讲讲，我认为在拜登政府时期，人们对加密货币产生抵触情绪的原因是什么。请说。

But let me give you a flavor for what I think drove some of the antipathy to crypto during those Biden's Please do.

在我进入公共生活的那个时代，也就是里根革命时期，它基于米尔顿·弗里德曼以及更早的奥地利经济学派，当时的信念是，在社会中，最好的资本分配方式是通过自由市场，尽管市场并不完美，但它能以高效的方式分配资本。

During the era on which I came into public life, the Reagan revolution, which was based upon Milton Friedman and before that, the Austrian School of Economics, the belief was that in a society, the best way to allocate capital amongst members of that society was in a free market approach, that the market, albeit not perfect, would allocate capital in an efficient means.

然而，2008年金融危机之后，另一种一直暗流涌动的哲学全面登场了，它认为自由市场在资本分配上做得不好，尤其是对某些弱势群体。

Well, coming out of the great financial crisis in 2008, an alternative philosophy that had been bubbling around but now came in the full blue, and that says, actually, the free market's done a bad job of allocating capital, especially to certain dis

狗挣脱了绳子。

The dog got off the leash.

好的。

Okay.

狗它……而且它没有把资本分配给某些被边缘化的群体。

The dog and and and it didn't allocate capital to certain disenfranchised groups.

对。

Sure.

因此，为了以公平的方式——或者我该说公平的方式——分配资本，我们需要政治因素的介入。

And therefore, in order to get capital in an equitable fashion, or I might say an equity fashion, we need a political component.

从很多方面来看，多德-弗兰克法案是华盛顿对华尔街的胜利。

And in many ways, Dodd Frank was the victory of Washington over Wall Street.

它说的是，从现在开始，华盛顿要在资本分配上有发言权了。

What it said was going forward, Washington's now gonna have a say in allocated capital.

你看，不管是规定谁能在金融机构的董事会任职，还是某些资本的分配，都是这样。

And you see that whether it's dictating who serves on the boards of directors of of financial firms or certain allocations of capital

在银行关系和其他方面。

in banking relationships and others.

我插一句，这其实挺讽刺的，因为次贷是克林顿那会儿搞出来的，他想参与进来，然后说，你知道吗？

Just to interject here, it almost seems ironic because the subprime mortgage was a Clinton sort of effort to get in and to put himself and say, you know what?

我们要做次级贷款。

We're we're gonna do subprime loans.

对吧？

Right?

这差不多就是原因。

And that was kind of the reason

弗兰克说，那就再赌一把吧。

that Frank's saying let's roll the dice one more time.

太疯狂了。

Crazy.

对吧？

Right?

真是讽刺。

The irony.

但讽刺的是。

But the irony.

对吧？

Right?

不过，加密货币的作用在于，它挑战了让市场分配资本和让华盛顿分配资本这两种观念。

Well, what but what crypto does is it challenges both the notion of letting the market allocate capital and letting Washington allocate capital.

加密货币的意思是，如果我们把算法搞对了，就不需要依赖任何个人或人类了。

What crypto says is if we get the algorithms right, we don't need to rely on individuals, any humans.

对吧？

Right?

我们可以用算法公平地分配资本，算法不会识别种族、肤色、宗教等等。

We can allocate capital fairly in a way the algorithms don't recognize race, color, religion, etcetera, etcetera.

算法只会分配资本。

The algorithms will just allocate capital.

所以，加密货币在某种意义上，是硅谷对华尔街和华盛顿的挑战——这里的硅谷是广义的，不只是加州。

And so crypto is in a sense Silicon Valley challenging Wall Street and Washington on how crypto Silicon Valley broadly written, not just California.

因此，加密货币确实是对这些势力的挑战。

And so crypto is really a challenge to those.

我的新书探讨的是，这个局面将如何自行解决？

And what my new book goes into is how is that going to resolve itself?

我们最终会得到什么结果？

What are we going to wind up with?

我们最终会看到权力重新集中到大科技公司手中，还是资本分配会完全民主化？

Are we gonna wind up with a reconsolidation of power in big tech, or are we gonna completely democ democratize the allocation of capital?

但我认为，我之所以把这称为货币未来的争夺战——提醒你一下，你称之为

But I think the reason why I call this the fight for the future of money reminding you, you call it the

《未来金融指南》。

The guide to the future of finance.

金融。

Finance.

我想对大家，也就是我们的听众来说，问题是，这要怎么解决？

The question for everybody, I guess, for our audience is, how does this get resolved?

最终会得出什么结果？

What comes out of this?

我在书里通过讲述内部故事，稍微探讨了一下这个问题。

And and I take a peek at that in my book by telling stories from the inside.

我喜欢这个。

I love it.

对了，如果我不问你关于预测市场的问题，那就太说不过去了。

Well, I'd be remiss if I didn't ask you about prediction markets.

我想听听你对预测市场的高层次看法，再结合一下商品期货交易委员会扮演的重要角色，以及这些东西要怎么监管？

I wanna get your just high level thoughts on prediction markets, and kinda color it with, you know, the CFTC's taken a big role, and how do you regulate these things?

因为我们这周一直在讨论，你知道，人们可以对任何人或任何事建立预测市场，那么那个人是否有责任了解预测市场里有什么，并根据预测市场的指示来决定做或不做某件事？

Because we've been having conversations all week about, know, people could make a prediction market on anybody or anything, and is that person then responsible for knowing what's out in the prediction market, and doing or not doing what a prediction market says?

预测市场里的内幕交易？

Insider trading on prediction markets?

你对这个概念有什么高层次的看法？

What are your high level views on this concept?

其实，我觉得监管这块很简单。

Actually, I think the regulation piece is easy.

这是整个问题里最容易的部分。

That's the easy piece of this.

从1930年代起，我们就已经有了很成熟的体系：零售机构由州政府监管，市场由联邦政府监管。

We have long established, going back to the 1930s, that retail establishments are regulated at the state level, markets are regulated at the federal level.

对吧。

Okay.

赌场和体育博彩公司并不是市场。

Casinos and sportsbooks are not marketplaces.

对。

Right.

庄家定价格。

The house sets the price.

没错。

Right.

明白吗？

Okay?

你走进赌场，不能自己说赔率是多少。

If you walk into a casino, you don't get to say, I'll tell you what the odds are.

不行。

No.

庄家定赔率。如果你去体育博彩，他们告诉你赔率是多少。

The house sets If the you go on a sports book, they tell you what the odds are.

你只能接受这个赔率。

You can take the odds.

你可以不接受赔率，但你不能自己定赔率。

You can leave the odds, but you can't make the odds.

对。

Okay.

有意思。

Interesting.

那些是零售场所。

Those are retail establishments.

那些是在州一级监管的。

Those are regulated at the state level.

预测市场才是真正的市场。

Prediction markets are truly markets.

庄家不设定赔率。

The house doesn't set the odds.

庄家只是提出一个交易标的。

The house just puts forward a proposition.

对。

Right.

市场参与者来设定赔率。

The market participants set the odds.

如果你不喜欢这个赔率，你可以重新设定它。

If you don't like the odds, you reset the odds.

这是一个必须在联邦层面监管的市场，不仅仅是因为法律这么规定，而是因为这是唯一合理的做法。

That's a marketplace that has to be regulated at a federal level, not just because that's what the law says, because that's the only thing that makes sense.

当然。

Sure.

难道我们要让26个州来监管全球市场吗？

Are we gonna have 26 states regulate global marketplaces?

它们做不到。

They're not.

它们根本没有这个能力。

They just don't have the ability.

美国商品期货交易委员会长期以来一直监管着一些全球最大的市场。

The CFTC has long regulated some of the world's biggest markets.

石油期货市场是一个全球性市场，而CFTC在积极且高效地监管它。所以，这些市场到底该由联邦还是州来监管，对我来说非常清楚。

The oil futures market is a global market, and the CFTC actively regulates it and efficiently regulates So the issue of whether these should be regulated, federal or state, is to me quite clear.

只要是市场，就该归联邦管。

If it's a market, it's federal.

不管是体育赛事投注，还是选举预测，或者是石油期货价格，都不重要。

It doesn't matter whether it's a sports proposition, doesn't matter whether it's an electoral proposition, doesn't matter whether it's a proposition on the price of oil, the future price.

只要是市场，就该由联邦监管。

If it's a marketplace, it's federal regulations.

对我来说，这部分很简单。

To me, that's the easy part.

我想说的是，这些在我看来很像优步。

What I would say is that to me, these look a lot like Uber.

优步出现时，拼车服务对传统叫车行业构成了挑战，而后者一直被地方垄断所限制，比如地方出租车和豪华轿车垄断、机场垄断、县级垄断。

When Uber came around and ride sharing offered a challenge to ride hailing that was restricted by local monopolies, local taxi and limousine monopolies, airport monopolies, county monopolies.

结果呢，美国老百姓说，但我真的很喜欢这种叫车服务。

And what happened was the American people said, But I really like this ride hailing thing.

你告诉我这个机场打不到这种车，只能坐传统出租车，那我就去别的机场。

And the fact that you tell me I can't get one from this airport, I can only get a ride hailing, means I'm gonna go to a different airport.

对吧。

Right.

所以过了一段时间，那些垄断就被打破了。

And so after a while, those monopolies were broken down.

现在是什么情况呢？

And what do we have today?

实际上，我们现在既有传统出租车，也有网约车。

We actually have both ride hailing and ride sharing.

它们服务于不同的市场，并且共存。

They serve different marketplaces, and they coexist.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得预测市场也会出现同样的情况。

I think we're gonna see the same thing in prediction markets.

各州、赌场和体育博彩公司至少把体育这块攥在自己手里，他们现在说：等等。

The states and their casinos and their sports books have had at least the sports element to themselves, and they're saying, wait a minute.

你们不能这么干，因为我们在州、县和部落层面都受赌场和博彩委员会保护，我们会一路告到国会去。

You can't do this because we're protected by casino and gambling commissions at the state and the county and the tribal level, and we're gonna fight you all the way to congress.

对。

Right.

但接下来会发生的是，美国人民会说：你知道吗？

But what's gonna happen is the American people are gonna say, you know what?

但我们喜欢这个。

But we like this.

是的。

Yeah.

你们不能把这个夺走。

You can't take this away.

我们想要这个。

We want it.

我们想要这个。

We want it.

一旦这种情况发生，这些限制就会被打破。

And when that happens, these things are gonna break down.

你猜怎么着？

And guess what?

赌场依然会存在。

We're still gonna have the casinos.

对。

Yeah.

因为赌场90%的收入都来自老虎机。

Because the casinos make 90% of their money on the one armed bandits.

是的。

Yeah.

对吧？

Okay?

体育博彩还会存在，因为人们喜欢它。

We're still gonna have sports books because people like sports books.

它们提供不同的串关和其他玩法。

They offer different parlays and other things.

但我们也会有预测市场，而且我来说说为什么会有预测市场。

But we're also gonna have prediction markets, and here's why we're gonna have prediction markets.

因为人们想要确定性。

Because people want certainty.

是的。

Yes.

就像我今天来之前查了天气预报，因为外面是晴天，所以没穿雨衣。

For the same reason that I checked the weather report today before coming to this thing, and I'm not wearing a raincoat because it's sunny out.

人们希望预测利率走向、油价走势。

People want predictability in where interest rates going, where are gas prices going.

而这些预测市场已经证明，它们的准确率大约有90%。

And these prediction markets have shown they've got about 90% accuracy.

是的。

Yeah.

还能预测力量。

Predict power too.

这和天气预报的准确率是一样的。

Which is the same accuracy as the weather report.

对。

Yeah.

所以人们会喜欢这个想法。

And so people are gonna like this idea.

一旦他们喜欢上，就不会被这些地方垄断所束缚。

And once they like it, they're not gonna be held back by these local monopolies.

最终，这些地方垄断也会明白，你知道吗？

And eventually, the local monopolies are gonna figure out, you know what?

每个人都有发展的空间。

There's room for everybody.

是的。

Yeah.

他们能赚到钱，预测市场也一样。

They'll make their money, and so will prediction markets.

而且我觉得这已经无法回头了。

And I think there's no turning back.

对。

Yeah.

问题在于这些组织的领导者，这些创始人，这些建立了伟大企业的年轻创始人，是否具备这种能力——并不是每个创始人都有。

The question is whether the leaders of these organizations, these founders, these young founders that have built great franchises, have the ability and not every founder does.

我经历过，我曾带领一家公司从初创阶段一直走到上市。

I've seen this I took a company from almost startup to IPO.

并不是每个CEO都有能力既提出伟大的创意、打造市场，又能转型成为上市公司的CEO。

Not every CEO has the ability to both create a great idea, build a marketplace, and then transition into a public company CEO.