第741集：Multicoin Capital揭示可能引发下一轮加密牛市行情的因素

别等着别人批准才去创业。

Stop waiting for permission to start your business.

你的想法只差一步就能实现，Shopify能让这个过程变得很简单。

Your idea is one step away, and Shopify can make it easy to make it happen.

我们在Crypto One Zero One就是这么做的，用Shopify来卖我们的书，剩下的就是历史了。

That's what we did at Crypto one zero one and use Shopify to sell our book, the rest is history.

我喜欢Shopify的一点是，它让起步的过程不再那么让人害怕。

The thing I like about Shopify is it takes the scary part out of starting.

你不用光是坐在那儿琢磨网站、支付、结账流程、库存管理这些琐碎事儿，正是这些细节往往让人还没开张就打退堂鼓。

You're not just sitting there trying to figure out a website, payments, checkout, inventory, all these little things that stop people before they even launch.

说到搭建线上店铺，最关键的就是减少摩擦。

When I think about building a storefront, the biggest thing is friction.

你得让用户一进来就喜欢你的产品，然后能顺畅地直接下单，别让他们卡在哪儿。

You want someone to land on your page, like what you're selling, and be able to buy without getting stuck.

这就是Shopify厉害的地方。

That's where Shopify is huge.

Shopify的结账流程专门设计用来帮助更多顾客完成购买，而且当他们再次回来时，个人信息已经保存好了。

Shopify checkout is built to help more customers finish their purchase, and when they come back, their details are already saved.

点一下就能搞定。

One tap and they're done.

最棒的是，Shopify在全球支持着数以百万计的企业，从你熟悉的大型品牌比如美泰和Gymshark，到刚刚起步的小商家都在用。

The cool part is Shopify powers millions of businesses worldwide from huge brands that you know, like Mattel and Gymshark to small businesses just getting started.

所以不管你是想打造下一个大牌，还是推出第一款产品，基础设施都已经准备好了。

So whether you're building the next big brand or launching your first product, the infrastructure is already there.

把这些搞定之后，你就能专心做正事了：打造品牌、吸引关注，把客户引到你的店里，让生意真正做起来。

Once that part is handled, you can focus on the real work, building the brand, getting attention, and bringing people to your storefront so the business can grow.

当有人真的下单购买的那一刻，你的想法才算真正落地。

That moment when someone actually buys, that's when the idea becomes real.

有了Shopify，你的想法和实际生意之间没有任何阻碍，赶紧把它变成现实吧。

With Shopify, nothing stands between your idea and a real business, so go make it one.

现在就去 shopify.com/crypto10one 免费试用吧。

Start your free trial today at shopify.com/crypto10one.

这是shopify.com/crypto10one的免费试用。

That's a free trial at shopify.com/crypto10one.

八月是稍微整理一下衣柜的好时机。

August is a good time to clean up the closet a little bit.

把那些夏天没用过的东西处理掉。

Get rid of the summer stuff that you didn't use.

为秋季衣橱做准备，升级那些你每周都会真正穿的基础款。

Prepare for your autumn wardrobe and upgrade the basics that you'll actually reach for every week.

这就是我喜欢Quince的原因。

That's why I like Quince.

他们做的衣服数量少但质量更好，感觉很高档，却没有奢侈品的溢价。

They make fewer better pieces that feel premium, but don't come with the luxury markup.

对我来说，我最常穿的是那件100%欧洲亚麻抽绳沙滩裤，搭配同款衬衫。

For me, the piece I keep coming back to is the 100% European linen drawstring beach pants with the matching shirt.

我喜欢在海滩度假时穿它们，因为它们很随意、透气、舒适，而且看起来得体，又不会让人觉得我刻意打扮。

I love wearing them on beach vacations because they're easy, they're breathable, comfortable, and they look put together without feel like I'm trying too hard.

白天穿上它们，在水边穿也行，晚上稍微打扮一下也可以。

Throw them on during the day, wear them by the water, or dress up a little bit at night.

这就是我真正会用的那种百搭单品，因为它很实用。

That's the kind of staple I actually use because it has versatility.

而这正是Quince做得好的地方。

And that's really what Quince does well.

他们专注于日常单品，比如超柔软的有机棉T恤和高级木兰花、羊绒毛衣，这些可以从日常上班穿到晚餐外出。

They specialize in everyday pieces that work harder like ultra soft organic cotton tees and premium magnolia and cashmere sweaters that can go from a casual workday to dinner out.

如果你的基础款开始显得旧了，Quince让你轻松升级，优质牛仔和定制休闲裤只要60美元起，拥有你期望的奢华设计师品牌的版型和优质面料。

If your basics are starting to feel worn out, Quince makes it easy to upgrade with premium denim and tailored chinos from just $60 with the fit structure and quality fabrics you'd expect from a luxury designer brand.

Quince的所有商品价格比同类品牌低50%到80%。

Everything at Quince is priced 50 to 80% less than similar brands.

他们直接与道德工厂合作，省去中间商，所以你支付的是高品质，而不是品牌溢价。

They work directly with ethical factories and cut out the middleman so you're paying for high quality, not brand markup.

而且不仅仅是服装。

And it's not just clothing.

Quince已经成了大家的首选，从酒店品质的床品、浴室用品，到高端厨具和旅行必备品，应有尽有。

Quince has become a go to for everything from hotel quality bedding and bath essentials to premium cookware and travel must haves.

各位，你们听我说了这么久了，我一直告诉你们一定要去quince.com看看，因为那个网站太有意思了，选择特别多。

Guys, you've been hearing it for so long now how I tell you you have to go to quince.com because the website is so fun for all the options that they have.

那个网站逛起来特别棒，而且价格无敌。

It's a great website to go click around and the prices can't be beat.

升级你的日常，下载Quince应用，享受应用专属优惠。

Upgrade your everyday, download the Quince app for app exclusive offers.

访问quince.com/crypto10one。

Go to quince.com/crypto10one.

享受免费送货和365天退货，现在加拿大和英国也有这个服务了。

Get free shipping on your order and three hundred and sixty five day returns now available in Canada and The UK too.

网址是quince.com/crypto10one。

That's quince.com/crypto10one.

好了，各位。

Alright, everybody.

我们现在在Out East峰会的现场，这次活动是由TIE赞助的。

We're at the Out East Summit here sponsored by the TIE.

我身边有一位非常尊贵的嘉宾。

I'm joined by an esteemed guest.

非常高兴能请到Multicoin Capital的普通合伙人Spencer Applebaum。

Really excited to have GP, general partner of Multicoin Capital, Spencer Applebaum.

很高兴见到你。

Great to meet you.

最近怎么样？

How's it going?

很高兴见到你。

Great to meet Good.

生活挺好的，你过得怎么样？

Life's good, treating you well?

是的，这里风景真不错。

Yeah, it's beautiful out here.

我去年来过东海岸峰会。

I came last year to the Out East Summit.

TIE 举办的活动真的很棒。

The TIE puts on a great event.

参会的人群质量很高。

It's a really good crowd.

我今天早些时候参加了一个小组讨论，话题是我们如何推动万亿美元级别的资金真正接入公链基础设施，这显然是大家最关心的焦点。

I was on a panel earlier today talking about how we get trillion dollar finance to actually come on to public blockchain rails, which is which is obviously top of mind.

不过，确实有那些美食车在这儿。

But, yeah, they do they they got the food trucks out here.

这活动办得真不错。

It's it's just a great event.

对。

Yeah.

很喜欢待在这儿。

Love seeing out here.

真的特别有意思。

It's been a ton of fun.

我觉得今年邀请到的嘉宾质量特别高，跟往年比简直是一个质的飞跃。

I I feel like the the quality of guests that we've had this year particularly relative to any other year, it's just been up into the right.

对。

Yeah.

而且我想说，像我们之前在加密货币市场经历的那种熊市，反而能筛选出那些真正看好这个行业的人。所以我觉得，2021年和2022年市场上涨的时候，来了不少只是凑热闹的游客。

And I think when you have a bear market like we've seen in crypto, generally that sells selects for people who really believe in the industry So and wanna be I think you have you've had you had a lot of the tourists come in 2021 and 2022 when when the market was up.

不过，如果你打算参加这种七月份的活动，那你得对这个领域以及背后的技术有自己的一套见解。

But like, you have to have a real thesis on the space and the technology behind it if you're gonna come to something like this in July by the way.

就像那个 Crypto 101 播客一样。

Like Crypto one zero one podcast.

对。

Yeah.

你看其他展位都空荡荡的，只有我们在这儿忙活。

You know, look at all these other booths, they're empty, we're here working.

没错。

Exactly.

而且我们有信念，我们充满热情。

And we've got the conviction, we're passionate.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得我们也有同样的热情。

I think we share that same passion.

那么，Multicoin Capital，跟我们简单聊聊你们的投资理念是什么，以及你们是怎么划分加密市场的？

And so so Multicoin Capital, tell us a little bit about what your guys' thesis is and and how you chop up the crypto market.

我知道你们是多策略的。

I know it's multi strategy.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

简单介绍一下背景，Multicoin Capital是一家以投资理念驱动的投资公司，专注于加密货币领域。

So for some context, Multicoin Capital is a thesis driven investment firm exclusively focused on crypto.

我们推出了第一支基金，是一只流动性对冲基金，主要在代币市场交易。

We launched our first fund, which is a liquid hedge fund that trades in the token markets.

那是在2017年10月推出的。

We launched that in October 2017.

不知道你进入加密圈多久了，你可能还记得，我们经历了一个从公开ICO——那些几乎违反了所有能想到的证券法——到真正的加密风险投资市场的转变。

I don't know how long you've been in crypto, but you might remember we went kind of from public ICOs, which more or less broke every securities law imaginable to a real crypto venture market.

所以我们在2018年7月募集了第一只风险投资基金。

And so we raised our first venture fund in July 2018.

那是一笔1700万美元的基金。

That was a $17,000,000 fund.

之后我们又募集了一系列风险投资基金，目前我们正在投资的是第三只风险基金，规模是4.22亿美元。

We've since raised a series of venture funds of which we're now investing out of venture fund three, which is a $422,000,000 fund.

我们既投资代币也投资股权，但我们的所有业务都集中在加密领域。

And we invest in both tokens and equity, but everything we do is in the crypto space.

你可能注意到，我们很多同行都开始涉足人工智能、机器人这些热门行业了。

So you might have noticed a lot of our peer set is starting to dabble in AI and robotics and other really buzzy industries.

对。

Yep.

我觉得每个人都有自己的理由这么做。

I think everyone has their own reason for doing that.

也许他们觉得自己有优势，但我们仍然认为加密货币和公有区块链还有很多机会。

Maybe they believe we they have an edge, but we we still believe there's a lot of opportunity in crypto and and public blockchains.

所以我们还是坚持自己的本源，坚持我们认为自己有优势的地方。

And so we're staying true to our roots and where we believe we have an edge.

希望别招来麻烦。

Hopefully, the bees don't get us.

不过，对，这大致就是我们的基本情况。

But, yeah, that's the high level about us.

太棒了。

Awesome.

跟我们聊聊，你们最关注市场的哪个部分？

And tell us a little bit about, you know, what part of the market you guys are most focused on.

我看到你们有一群很活跃的投资人，他们不仅投资，还写了不少东西。

I've seen you guys have a prolific group of folks that are investing there that are also writing quite a bit.

对。

Yeah.

你们会发布这些投资论点，我猜LP们会先看到，但之后会发到博客上，我很喜欢读这些，因为能学到很多。

So you guys have these theses that come out, and I'm sure the LPs get a first look, but then they go out to the blog, and I love reading these because I get to learn a lot.

我知道你们写过关于去中心化物理基础设施的文章。

I know deep in centralized physical infrastructure is something you guys have written about.

是的。

Yep.

给我讲讲大概的情况，比如投资组合的构成，比如20%投在去中心化物理基础设施上之类的。

Tell me a little bit of the lay of the land, maybe even what the portfolio looks like, you know, 20% deep in or whatever.

当然可以。

For sure.

对。

Yeah.

写作基本上从公司成立之初就是我们文化中非常重要的一部分。

Writing's been a very deep part of our culture basically since the inception of the firm.

是的。

Yeah.

你知道，我，我经常拿这个开玩笑。

You know, the I I always joke about this.

我觉得 Multicoin 投资团队历史上大概有十五六个成员，但之前只有三个人在加密行业工作过，只有一个人做过投资。

I think we've had about 15 or 16 people on the Multicoin investment team in our history, and only three people had worked in crypto before that and one person had invested before that.

所以我们其实是一群杂牌军。

And so we're kind of a ragtag group of people.

我很喜欢这样。

I love it.

在 Multicoin 早期，我们写了很多东西，因为当时加密领域确实没有什么像样的机构研究。

And in the early days of Multicoin, we wrote a lot because there wasn't really any real institutional research in the crypto space.

如果说非要指一件事的话，你知道，我加入的时候，公司管理的资产大概有两千万美元。

And it's probably if I had to point to one thing of, you know, when I joined, I think the firm had something like $20,000,000 of AUM.

今天，我们是一家管理二十亿美元资产的机构资产管理公司。

Today, we're a we're a $2,000,000,000 institutional asset manager.

如果要说是什么促成了这个成功，那就是我们公开写作。

If I if I would say there's one thing that contributed to that success, it's our writing in public.

这为我们带来了几个好处。

And it's done a few things for us.

第一，它帮助我们吸引到了那些在我们非常看好的领域里创业的创始人。

One is it's helped us attract founders who are building in specific areas that we're really excited about.

举个例子，我们大概五年前写了一篇博客文章，讲的是DeFi里利率衍生品的机会。

So for just to use an example, we wrote an a blog post, I wanna say five years ago, on the opportunity for interest rate derivatives in DeFi.

你想想DeFi市场，所有的借贷都是浮动利率。

If you think about the DeFi market, all the borrowing and lending that happens is variable rates.

所以如果我在Aave上以5%的利率放贷，可能明天就变成7%，或者明天变成3%。

So if I'm lending on Aave at 5%, maybe tomorrow it's 7% or maybe tomorrow it's 3%.

这里有个巨大的机会，可以开发衍生品，让人们能够对冲他们的风险敞口。

There's a huge opportunity to build derivatives so that people can hedge in their exposure.

我们五年前就写过这个。

And we wrote about that literally five years ago.

当时没什么动静，直到大概十八个月前，有人联系我们，说他们读过那篇博客文章，正在开发相关产品，这改变了他们的人生。

Nothing really came of it until I wanna say eighteen months ago, someone reached out to us and said they had read that blog post and they were building an Changed their life.

他们正在开发一个利率衍生品产品，我们最终在五年后真的投资了这个项目。

And they were building an interest rate derivatives product, and we we ended up funding that investment literally five years later.

哇。

Wow.

所以我们写了很多主题研究。

So we we write a a lot of thematic research.

我们写过关于去中心化衍生品、专业稳定币金融科技的机会，以及整个加密技术栈的前景和机会。

We've written about deepened decentralized derivatives, the opportunity for specialized stablecoin fintechs, head of the the entire crypto stack and where we see the opportunity.

我觉得我们公司历史上最好的交易，都是因为人们读了那些文章，然后主动联系我们，说，嘿。

And all of the best deals I think we've made in the history of the firm have come from people reading those articles, reaching out to us saying, hey.

我们要么同意你的观点，甚至很多时候，嘿。

We either agree with you or even in a lot of cases, hey.

我们不同意你，但我们也想做一些思想上的，我们想证明。

We disagree with you, but we wanna do some intellectual We wanna prove

证明什么？

you what?

不想在电话里证明你是错的。

Don't prove you wrong over a phone call.

好的，太好了，你在电话里证明我们错了，我们就给你钱。

Okay great, you prove us wrong over a phone call and we give you money.

所以这一直是很大一部分。

So it's been a huge part

我们历史上成功的关键。

of our success historically.

太棒了。

Awesome.

那投资组合大概是什么样子的？你知道，风险投资基金通常有十年的投资周期，对吧。

And kind of what does the portfolio look like in terms of you know, is it The venture funds are typically ten year time horizon Yeah.

流动性差，你知道，投资者要等项目逐渐成熟后才能拿回资金。

Illiquid, you know, investors get their money back as the projects sort of graduate.

对。

Yeah.

但据我了解，你们还使用了一些流动性策略。

But as far as I understand, there's also some liquid strategies that you guys use.

是的，没错。

Yeah, exactly.

所以我们有两大业务线。

So we two major lines of business.

我不知道你怎么样，但我总是忘记准备晚餐。

I don't know about you, but dinner sneaks up on me all the time.

我打开冰箱才发现没有现成的蛋白质食物。

I'll open the fridge and realize I have no protein ready.

那时候，我可不想临时跑去商店，赌一把店里还剩什么肉或汉堡。

And at that point, I'm not trying to go to the store, make a last minute grocery run, and gamble on whatever meats or burgers are left at the store.

所以Omaha Steaks是个很棒的选择，可以放进冰箱备用。

That's why Omaha Steaks is a great freezer move.

就像家里有个信得过的屠夫，在最需要的时候总有优质蛋白质。

It's like having trusted butcher at home and quality protein when you need it the most.

Omaha Steaks经营了一百多年，赢得了好口碑。

Omaha Steaks has earned its reputation with over a hundred years.

全美各地厨房信赖的优质牛肉，直接送到你家门口。

It's the same beef trusted in kitchens across the country shipped straight to your door.

牛排馆的品质，却不用花牛排馆的价格。

Steakhouse quality without the steakhouse prices.

你的家人会以为这顿晚餐花了很久，其实并没有。

Your family will think dinner took hours, but it didn't.

只要几分钟就行。

Just minutes.

如果你还没试过，那个完美汉堡套餐是最好的起点。

And if you never tried them, the burger perfection flight is the perfect place to start.

你能拿到20个优质牛排汉堡，用五种不同的牛排部位做的。

You get 20 premium steak burgers made from five different cuts of steak.

四个菲力汉堡、四个纽约客汉堡、四个肋眼汉堡、四个牛胸肉汉堡，还有四个西冷汉堡。

Four filet mignon burgers, four New York strip burgers, four rib eye burgers, four brisket burgers, and four sirloin burgers.

各位，这简直就是汉堡界的山寨币组合啊。

Guys, this is the altcoin basket of burgers right here.

如果我和布莱恩一起做节目，我们会一人一半分着吃，因为我们夏天就喜欢烤东西嘛。

If me and Brian were on the rundown, we would be divvying these up $50.50 because you know how we like to grill in the summer.

你得到的不仅仅是一盒汉堡，而是不同的风味、不同的口感，还有真正的牛排馆级别的多样性，你可以烤着吃，也可以工作日快速烹饪。

You're So not just getting a box of burgers, you're getting different flavor profiles, different textures, and real steakhouse style variety you can throw on the grill or cook up fast during the week.

今天就上omahasteaks.com试试完美汉堡套餐吧。

Try the burger perfection flight at omahasteaks dot com today.

20个优质牛排汉堡只要79.99美元，再用促销码beef还能减35美元。

That's 20 premium steak burgers for just $79.99, plus get $35 off with the promo code beef.

网址是omahasteaks.com，输入优惠码beef，结账时立减35美元。

That's omahasteaks.com promo code beef for $35 off at checkout.

条款适用。

Terms apply.

详情请见网站。

See site for details.

现在大家都在聊AI，但真正重要的AI是那种能帮你省时间、让你做出更明智的决策、还能减轻你工作负担的AI。

Everybody is talking about AI right now, but the AI that actually matters is the kind that saves you time, helps you make smarter decisions, and takes work off your plate.

如果你在经营电商生意，物流配送这事要么让你顺利推进，要么让你完全卡住。

And if you're running an e commerce business, shipping is one of those things that can either keep you moving or completely slow you down.

所以我喜欢ShipStation。

That's why I like ShipStation.

它是一个为电商企业打造的一体化订单履约平台，它的AI基于全球数十亿次发货的多年真实数据训练而成。

It's an end to end order fulfillment platform built for ecommerce businesses, and its AI is trained on decades of real shipping data from billions of shipments across the world.

所以不用在多个工具之间来回切换，ShipStation能帮你掌控全局。

So instead of juggling a bunch of different tools, ShipStation helps you stay in control.

它能在库存不足时提醒你，推荐最佳承运商和费率，自动化任务，随着你的业务增长帮你节省时间。

It can alert you when your stock is low, recommend the best carrier selections and rates, automate tasks, help you save time as you grow.

你还能获得跨销售渠道的库存同步、自动比价、品牌退货门户，以及会计和CRM软件集成，全部集中在一个地方。

You also get inventory syncing across sales channels, automatic rate shopping, a branded returns portal, and integrations with accounting and CRM software all in one place.

如果我在运营电商店铺，这正是我想要的那种工具。

If I were running an e commerce store, this is exactly the kind of tool I'd want.

因为一旦订单开始进来，你肯定不想让物流成为拖后腿的事情。

Because once the orders start coming in, you don't want shipping to be the thing that's holding you back.

超过一百万家商家信任ShipStation来优化和扩展他们的物流。

Over 1,000,000 businesses have trusted ShipStation to optimize and scale their shipping.

你越早切换，就能越早开始节省时间和金钱。

The sooner you switch, the sooner you start saving time and money.

今天就使用ShipStation，在shipstation.com输入代码crypto即可免费试用六十天。

Get started with ShipStation today and get sixty days free at shipstation.com with code crypto.

网站是shipstation.com，代码是crypto。

That's shipstation.com, code crypto.

Shipstation.com，优惠码crypto。

Shipstation.com, code crypto.

税费和其他费用另计。

Taxes and fees apply.

我们有一个流动性对冲基金。

The we have a liquid hedge fund.

所以完全是基本面驱动。

So it's all fundamental focus.

我们不做算法交易，也不做做市或者套利之类的。

We're not doing algorithmic trading or or market making or or arbitrage or anything like that.

我们基本上是试图在公开市场找到那些能带来类似风投那种不对称回报的资产，并且我们认为这些资产会长期复利增长。

We're basically trying to find assets in the public markets that give us a lot of the skew that you see in venture and that we think will compound over long periods of time.

所以我觉得我们对冲基金的平均持有时间，短则几个月，长的话大多数情况是好几年。

So I would say our average hold time in the hedge fund is anywhere from, you know, several months to in most cases years.

那个基金里的资产主要是流动性好的加密货币代币。

And assets in that fund are primarily liquid crypto tokens.

所以我们持有像Hyperliquid、Solana、Zcash、Camino和Jito这样的资产。

So, you know, we own things like Hyperliquid and Solana and Zcash and Camino and Jito and and those.

然后基金的一小部分，我们开始，你可以说是扩大了投资范围。

And then a small portion of the fund, we've we've started to you could call it expand the mandate.

我们认为这完全在授权范围内，但我们也开始持有一些与加密货币相关的股票。

We think it's very much in mandate, but we're we've also started to own some equities that are crypto related.

对。

Right.

比如我们持有Robinhood的仓位。

Have a we have a Robinhood position, for example.

我们历史上也持有过Coinbase。

We've owned Coinbase historically.

有很多，你知道，我想说过去十二个月我们注意到的一个更有趣的趋势是，加密货币公司的IPO窗口真的打开了。

There's lots of you know, the the I would say one of the more interesting trends that we've noticed in the last twelve months is the IPO window for crypto companies has really opened up.

确实。

Exactly.

过去两年里，已经有六七家加密货币公司完成了首次公开募股，而且现在还有很多其他团队正在提交上市申请。

There's been six or seven companies in the last two years that have gone prob public in crypto, and there's a lot of other groups with filings out right now.

所以随着这些公司进入公开市场，我想我们能够通过对冲基金来投资它们。

And so as those companies come to the public markets, I think we'll be able to invest in them out of the hedge fund.

这就是我们业务的一部分。

So that's that's one part of our business.

然后我们还有风险投资基金，你可以把它理解为：我们基本上是在投资那些还不存在的代币。

And then we have the venture fund where you can think of it we're basically investing in tokens that don't exist yet.

所以，我们目前的风投基金里，大约三分之二是那些我们认为价值会体现在代币上的项目，剩下的三分之一则是股权类投资，主要是围绕加密货币生态运营的‘卖铲子’型公司，其中很多这周都在这儿。

So about two thirds of our current venture fund is made up of projects where we believe the value will accrue to the token, and then a third equity and kind of picks and shovels companies that operate in around crypto, a lot of which are are actually here this week.

所以，你可以这样理解我们的业务布局。

So that that's kinda how to think about what we do.

在代币和股权的争论中，你更倾向于哪一边？我觉得最近比较大的争议案例是Venice，对。

Where do you fall in the debate between tokens and equity when a company I think the most recent big scuttle was around Venice, Yes.

他们进行了一轮大规模的股权融资，但代币持有者仍然觉得自己被坑了。

They did a big equity raise, and the token holders still feel like they're not getting completely shafted.

但另一方面，像Axelar这样的项目，被Coinbase收购了。

But on the other end of the spectrum, you had projects like Axelar, which got acquired by Coinbase.

对。

Yeah.

然后那个代币基本上就废了，因为被收购的只是股权。

And the token pretty much, you know, went defunct because it was just equity that was acquired.

那你对此怎么看？你是怎么理解这件事的？

So where do you stand on this, and could you how do make sense of it?

对。

Yeah.

其实我对此有非常强烈的看法。

I actually have really strong opinions.

我很想听听。

I'd love to hear it.

因为很多这些教训都是我们通过惨痛经历学到的。

And because we've learned a lot of these lessons the hard way

你被坑过。

You've been burned.

真的。

Really.

对。

Yeah.

当然。

For sure.

在任何行业，这都不是个好主意，尤其是在加密货币领域，如果你有代币和股权，却有不同的资本结构表，那问题就大了。

It is a really bad idea in really any industry, but certainly in crypto where you have a token and equity to have diverging cap tables.

所以，如果你有一个风投基础，比如说，他们只持有股权但不持有代币，然后你发行了代币，我觉得这真的很负面，因为归根结底，在这个周期里，绝大多数代币都需要产生收入。

And so if you have a if you have a VC base, let's just say, that only owns the equity but doesn't own tokens and then you launch a token, I think that's really net negative because at at the end of the day, the the vast majority of tokens where we're at in the cycle is they need to accrue revenue.

比如说，假设你是一家公司，收入大概一亿美元，我就是随便举个例子。

And so let's say you're a company doing I I'm just making it up, a 100,000,000 of revenue.

如果你有不同的资本结构表，那么其中一部分收入必须分配给股权，一部分必须分配给代币。

Some portion of that has to go to the equity and some portion of that has to go to the token if you have diverging cap tables.

那到底该怎么决定哪些归哪边呢？

And how do you actually decide what goes to what?

没错。

Right.

所以我觉得，关键是谁来拍板定夺？

So I think it's And who gets to say?

太对了。

Exactly.

所以我觉得，代币和股权的股权结构表看起来一致非常重要。

And so I think it's really important that the cap tables look the same for both the token and the equity.

我还要提一下我最近注意到的另一个趋势，就是很多加密风投机构对代币的态度变得有些冷淡了。

I will say one another trend I've noticed recently is a lot of crypto venture firms have kind of gone sour on tokens.

我认为这在很大程度上是因为过去这一年我们看到的这种市场环境。

And I think a lot of that is because of the the market that we've seen over the last, call it, year.

不过这种情况在每个熊市里都会发生。

That happens in every bear market, though.

对。

Right.

而且我觉得我们实际上，呃，我们真的就是在Clarity文本公开发布的那天做这件事，大概十分钟前。

And I think we're actually, text I we're we're literally doing this on the day that Clarity text dropped publicly, like, ten minutes ago.

我还没来得及看。

I haven't had a chance to read it yet.

但假设Clarity确实通过了，我认为真的有路径让代币能够积累更多价值，而且，你知道，在岸发行方能够将现金流带给代币持有者。

But assuming that Clarity does path pass, I think there's a real path towards tokens being able to accrue more value and, you know, onshore issuers being able to drive cash flows to token holders.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我们实际上比以往任何时候都更倾向于代币，尽管感觉风投行业和整个加密货币领域已经开始更多地转向股权。

And so we're actually leaning in more on tokens than we ever have even though it feels like the venture industry and crypto as a whole has started to skew more towards equity.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

这太有意思了。

That's that's fascinating.

我今天早上刚跟美国商品期货交易委员会的前主席聊过，对。

I I was speaking with the former chairman of the CFTC this morning Yeah.

让·卡尔·克里斯·詹卡洛，也就是大家口中的‘加密教父’。

Jean Carl Chris Giancarlo, Crypto Dad.

人特别棒。

Great great guy.

真是个了不起的人。

Incredible person.

这算是我们聊过最棒的几场对话之一了。

Was, you know, one of my favorite conversations we've had.

对。

Yeah.

他基本上就是说了个大概情况。

And he was basically saying, here's the skinny.

短期内法案能不能通过其实不重要，Mike Selleck和CFTC的Paul Atkins这些人手里都攥着不少筹码。不管有没有这些政策，加密货币这块儿都会继续发展下去。你对这个怎么看？

It doesn't matter if it passes or doesn't pass in the near term, Mike Selleck, Paul Atkins at the CFTC, like these guys have stuff loaded in the hopper, crypto, this stuff is gonna run with or without, and what's your take on that?

这点说得很对。

It's a really good point.

咱们先假设它没通过。

And one thing and let's assume it doesn't pass.

行业现在最需要做的一件事是，趁着我们有这么友好的政府，利用接下来这两年时间，让SEC和CFTC出台一些明显有利于行业的规则。然后所有相关方，比如交易所、托管机构、做市商、传统金融机构等等，都要去采纳这些规则，把它们深深嵌入到自己的工作流程里。这样就算2028年共和党失去了控制权……

One thing that the industry really needs to do is spend the next two years while we have this friendly administration, getting the SEC and the CFTC to put out rule making that is obviously beneficial to the industry and then have all of the constituents, right, exchanges, custodians, market makers, traditional financial institutions, whoever, adopt them and get them so embedded into their workflows that, you know, let's assume that the Republicans lose control in 2028.

到了那时候，它已经深度融入金融体系的运作方式中，几乎无法再撤销了。

By that time, it's so integrated into how the financial system works that you almost can't undo it.

是的。

Yeah.

所以你看，我们对《清晰度法案》能通过持乐观态度。

And so look, we're optimistic that Clarity's gonna pass.

谁知道呢？

Who knows?

而且看起来大银行确实是这样，对吧？

And it does seem like the big banks, right?

他们还在押注。

They're still betting on.

我是说，摩根士丹利刚刚推出了以太坊质押ETF，还有Solana质押ETF。

I mean Morgan Stanley just released a staking ETF for Ethereum, staking ETF for Solana.

他们知道这些东西不会消失。

They know this stuff's not going away.

他们正在为财富管理客户推出产品，也在为机构交易对手推出产品。

They're rolling stuff out for their wealth management management clients, they're rolling stuff out for their institutional trading counterparties.

你在这里听到的，富达也在，景顺也在，而且他们还持有Morpho代币，我们刚才还在聊这个，是的，太疯狂了。

I mean you hear it here, Fidelity was there, Invesco, I mean these guys Also owns Morpho tokens, We were just talking about that, yeah, it's so crazy.

所以看起来加密货币的政治色彩越来越淡了，这是好事，因为现在，你知道，大银行在这里，散户也在这里，而且进步派可能有了新的攻击目标，那就是AI。

And so it seems like it's becoming less, crypto's becoming less political, which is good, because it's now, you know, of course, the big banks are here, the retail's here, and we have potentially a new scapegoat for the progressives to kind of nay say and poo poo, which is AI.

对。

Yeah.

对，所以就像AI抢了加密货币的风头一样。你知道的，我那些平时总爱买币的朋友现在都在聊，说哥们儿，我们都在交易美光半导体股，还加了三四倍杠杆搞各种操作呢，哪还有心思去盯Coinbase账户啊，直接在券商账户里搞定就行了。不过现在你能看到，那帮反加密的势力——还是那批老面孔，像伊丽莎白·沃伦、查克·舒默这些人——开始把矛头转向AI了。

Right, and so it's like AI has taken a lot of the wind out of the sails of crypto, because you know, all my friends who are like typically buying crypto stuff, they're like, dude, we've trading Micron and Semis, and like triple levered this and that, so we don't need to go chase our Coinbase account, just doing it in our brokerage account, but now you can see the anti crypto army, those same cast of characters, Liz Warren, Chuck Schumer, starting to focus their gaze now on AI.

是的。

Yeah.

这对加密货币来说可能是个利好，因为随着这种超额收益的表现逐渐收敛，情况可能会好转。

And that could be a net positive for crypto as that kind of outperformance starts to converge a little bit.

我也这么觉得。

I think so.

而且政策方面也会变得对加密货币更有利。

And the policy stuff to be, you know, kind of more favorable in crypto.

确实如此。

Yeah.

这恰恰说明，大家关注的从来就不是加密货币这项技术本身。

And it just shows you it was never really about crypto the technology.

大家真正关心的是加密货币，以及散户在上面投机炒作的热度。

It was about crypto and how much retail was speculating on it.

但我们看到，资金就像一团炽热的火球。

But we've seen there's a hot ball of money.

今年早些时候，它流向了黄金和白银，然后又流向了石油。

Earlier this year, it was in gold and silver, and then it was in oil.

没错。

Right.

以前它也流向过加密货币。

It's been in crypto before.

我敢打赌，他们很快又会把矛头指向加密货币。

I'm sure it's gonna be in crypto again.

现在他们的目标可是人工智能。

Right now it's in AI.

作为政客嘛，你肯定得盯着大家关注的地方走。

And it's as a politician, you wanna go where the attention is.

所以眼下大家都在关注AI，这就是为什么那些进步派人士纷纷出手打压它，这其实对我们来说反而是件好事。

And and so right now, the attention is AI, and that's why you're seeing a lot of the progressives go after it, which again is is kinda great for us.

对，别让那些目光盯着我们。

Yeah, get the eyes off us.

是的。

Yeah.

我只是想，你知道，把话题拉回到基本面上来。

I just wanna you know, kinda bring up things back to basics.

就是投资和交易的基本原理，而这两样你都在做。

Fundamentals of sort of investing versus trading, and you know, you do it both.

对。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

那你心里是怎么区分，这个仓位是你想隔夜持有的，还是说，嗯，这个是你觉得可以长期持有的？

And how do you kind of differentiate in your mind, this is a position that I wanna, you know, put on overnight or Yeah.

比如这周的操作，还是说你觉得这个值得长期持有？你对加密货币的长期投资时间跨度是多久？

For the this week versus this is something that I think I wanna hold on to for what's your time horizon for a long term investment in crypto?

我觉得作为投资者，无论是流动性管理者还是风险投资管理者，知道自己在哪里有优势非常重要。

I think it's really important as an investor, whether you're a liquid manager a venture manager, to know where you have edge.

而且我觉得，我们运营一个公开的加密货币基金，到现在大概九年了，我们已经知道自己的优势在哪里，那就是在资产选择和长期投资上。

And I think, you know, we've been running a public crypto fund for, I guess, nine years at this point, and we've learned where we have edge, which is in asset selection and investing over a long time horizon.

所以我们基本上不做交易。

And so we don't really trade.

我觉得以前早期的时候，当我们尝试交易时，几乎总是亏钱。

I think the times in the past, in the early days when we did try to trade, we we almost universally lost money.

所以我们只是尽量去找资产，我们现在讨论的是公开市场。

And so we we just try to find assets in we're we're talking about the public markets right now.

所以公开市场上的资产，我们认为市场对它们的基本面存在根本性的误解，因此定价错误，我们可以长期持有，而且它们的基本面会在很长一段时间内持续增长。

So assets on the public side that we believe are fundamentally misunderstood by the market and therefore mispriced that we can own for a long period of time whose fundamentals are going to continue to compound over long stretches of time.

所以很少会出现，比如说，我们某天醒来突然决定，哦，我不知道。

And so it's very rare, I would say, that, you know, we wake up one day and we decide, oh, I don't know.

AI，我们已经谈过了。

AI, we're talking about it already.

哦，AI现在真的很火。

Oh, AI is really hot.

比如说，我们去买一个AI代币吧，因为觉得那些梗会把它推得更高之类的。

Like, let's go buy an AI token because, like, we think that the memes are gonna drive it higher or something like that.

这么做也没什么不对。

That's just there's nothing wrong with doing that.

只是Multicoin作为公司在这方面没有任何优势。

It's just Multicoin as a firm does not have any edge in doing that.

对。

Yeah.

所以我们做的一切都是非常长期导向的。

And so everything we do is very long term oriented.

好的。

Okay.

这非常有道理。

That makes a ton of sense.

对。

Yeah.

那从资产配置的角度来看，投资组合的大致分布是怎样的，特别是在加密货币方面？

What does the kind of portfolio breakdown look like in terms of asset allocation across crypto Yeah.

按行业划分呢？

Sector wise?

对。

Yeah.

我们是一个非常集中的基金。

We're a very concentrated fund.

所以我们通常说，而且这是真的，前八大持仓大约占投资组合的90%。

So the the what we usually say is, and this is true, I think our top eight positions make up about 90% of the portfolio.

哦，有意思。

Oh, interesting.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我们不会做那种自上而下的规划，比如一定要把10%投到DePIN，30%投到DeFi，20%投到L1。

And so we don't we don't do a top down view of, you know, we wanna have 10% allocated to deepen and 30% allocated to defi and 20% allocated to l ones.

我们更多是自下而上的思路，就是看我们喜不喜欢这个资产。

It's it's very much a bottoms up approach of do we like this asset?

如果喜欢的话，它的流动性跟我们的基金规模相比怎么样？

If so, what's the liquidity profile relative to our fund size?

跟其他我们看好的项目相比，应该怎么权衡？

How do we weigh it compared to other things that we like?

不过，有些情况我们是公开的。

But, you know, some of the and we're we're public about this.

我们最大的几个持仓之一就是Hyperliquid，上周我们刚发布了一份44页的研究报告。

Some of our largest positions are are Hyperliquid, which we just published a 44 page research report on last week.

还有Solana，我们是2018年4月第一个投进去的。

Solana, which we were we we were the first money in Solana in April 2018.

Robinhood的股票也是我们的一大持仓，Zcash也是。

Robinhood equity is another large position, and and so is Zcash.

所以这些就是我们公开提及的、并且非常看好的核心持仓。

So those are those are some of the core positions that we've public about, and are very excited about.

公司是怎么决定什么时候该卖出呢？

How does the firm decide when to hit the sell button?

我觉得做加密货币投资，大家通常都是看未来十年的大趋势。也就是说，可能是基于某个投资逻辑被验证了，或者发生了某些变化，然后才决定卖出。

Because I feel like with crypto investors, you know, you think about these things over the course of the next ten years, you know, I mean is it maybe a thesis and validation, something happens, okay, we're gonna sell.

对。

Yeah.

还是说，比如，嘿，

Or is it like, hey,

它达到我们的目标价位了？

it hit our price target?

你们是怎么考虑这一点的？

How do you guys think about that?

对，这确实是个很好的问题。

Yeah, it's a really good question.

我觉得我们卖出某项资产主要有三个原因。

I think there's really three reasons why we would sell something.

第一，也是最明显的，就是投资逻辑被验证或证伪。

One, the most obvious is thesis and validation.

正如我之前提到的，投资流动性好的加密货币的好处就在于，你能获得类似风险投资的高回报潜力。

That's really the nice part about investing in liquid crypto is, as I was saying earlier, you get a lot of venture skew.

对吧？

Right?

比如，在公开市场上，一个代币的价格能翻十倍。

Like, you can make 10 x on a on a token in the public market.

没错。

Right.

但如果你发现自己在买入三个月后判断错了，你可以把它卖掉。

But if you realize you're wrong three months after you buy it, you can sell it.

对吧？

Right?