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别再等着别人允许你才去创业了。
Stop waiting for permission to start your business.
你的想法离实现只差一步，而Shopify能让你轻松把它变成现实。
Your idea is one step away, and Shopify can make it easy to make it happen.
我们在Crypto one zero one就是这么做的，用Shopify卖我们的书，之后的事情大家都知道了。
That's what we did at Crypto one zero one and use Shopify to sell our book, the rest is history.
我喜欢Shopify的一点是，它把创业中最让人害怕的部分去掉了。
The thing I like about Shopify is it takes the scary part out of starting.
你不需要坐在那儿琢磨网站、支付、结账、库存这些琐碎的事情，这些小事往往在还没上线前就把人拦住了。
You're not just sitting there trying to figure out a website, payments, checkout, inventory, all these little things that stop people before they even launch.
说到建一个网店，最大的问题就是麻烦。
When I think about building a storefront, the biggest thing is friction.
你希望顾客一进你的页面就喜欢上你的产品，然后能顺利下单，不会卡住。
You want someone to land on your page, like what you're selling and be able to buy without getting stuck.
这正是Shopify的厉害之处。
That's where Shopify is huge.
Shopify的结账流程就是为了帮助更多顾客完成购买而设计的。
Shopify checkout is built to help more customers finish their purchase.
而且当他们再次光顾时，他们的信息已经保存好了。
And when they come back, their details are already saved.
一键就能搞定。
One tap and they're done.
最酷的是，Shopify支撑着全球数百万家企业，从你熟知的大品牌，比如美泰和Gymshark，到刚刚起步的小企业。
The cool part is Shopify powers millions of businesses worldwide from huge brands that you know, like Mattel and Gymshark to small businesses just getting started.
所以无论你是想打造下一个大品牌，还是推出你的第一款产品，基础设施都已经准备好了。
So whether you're building the next big brand or launching your first product, the infrastructure is already there.
一旦这部分处理好了，你就可以专注于真正重要的事情：打造品牌、吸引关注、把顾客带到你的店铺，让业务增长。
Once that part is handled, you can focus on the real work, building the brand, getting attention, and bringing people to your storefront so the business can grow.
当有人真正下单的那一刻，你的想法就变成了现实。
That moment when someone actually buys, that's when the idea becomes real.
有了Shopify，你的想法和真正的生意之间没有任何障碍，所以去实现它吧。
With Shopify, nothing stands between your idea and a real business, so go make it one.
今天就在shopify.com/crypto10one开始你的免费试用吧。
Start your free trial today at shopify.com/crypto10one.
没错，就是shopify.com/crypto10one的免费试用。
That's a free trial at shopify.com/crypto10one.
八月是时候稍微整理一下衣橱了。
August is a good time to clean up the closet a little bit.
把那些夏天没用过的东西处理掉。
Get rid of the summer stuff that you didn't use.
为秋天的衣橱做准备，升级那些你每周都会穿的基本款。
Prepare for your autumn wardrobe and upgrade the basics that you'll actually reach for every week.
这就是我喜欢Quince的原因。
That's why I like Quince.
他们做的单品数量少但质量更好，感觉很高档，却没有奢侈品的溢价。
They make fewer better pieces that feel premium, but don't come with the luxury markup.
对我来说，我最常穿的是那条100%欧洲亚麻抽绳沙滩裤，还有配套的衬衫。
For me, the piece I keep coming back to is the 100% European linen drawstring beach pants with the matching shirt.
我很喜欢在海滩度假时穿它们，因为它们穿起来轻松、透气、舒适，而且看起来很得体，不会让人觉得我用力过猛。
I love wearing them on beach vacations because they're easy, they're breathable, comfortable, and they look put together without feel like I'm trying too hard.
白天随便一穿，在水边穿也行，晚上稍微打扮一下也可以。
Throw them on during the day, wear them by the water, or dress up a little bit at night.
这就是我真正会用的那种百搭单品，因为它很实用。
That's the kind of staple I actually use because it has versatility.
而这正是Quince做得好的地方。
And that's really what Quince does well.
他们专注于制作更耐穿的日常单品，比如超柔软的有机棉T恤，还有高级的玉兰和羊绒毛衣，既能应对日常上班，也能穿去晚餐约会。
They specialize in everyday pieces that work harder like ultra soft organic cotton tees and premium magnolia and cashmere sweaters that can go from a casual workday to dinner out.
如果你的基础款开始显得旧了，Quince让你轻松升级，有高级牛仔和定制休闲裤，只要60美元起，而且版型和面料质量都是奢侈设计师品牌级别的。
If your basics are starting to feel worn out, Quince makes it easy to upgrade with premium denim and tailored chinos from just $60 with the fit structure and quality fabrics you'd expect from a luxury designer brand.
Quince的所有商品价格都比同类品牌低50%到80%。
Everything at Quince is priced 50 to 80% less than similar brands.
他们直接与道德工厂合作，省去中间商，所以你付的是高品质的钱，而不是品牌溢价。
They work directly with ethical factories and cut out the middleman so you're paying for high quality, not brand markup.
而且不只是衣服。
And it's not just clothing.
Quince 现在已经成了大家买各种东西的首选，从酒店级别的床品、浴室用品，到高端厨具和旅行必备品，应有尽有。
Quince has become a go to for everything from hotel quality bedding and bath essentials to premium cookware and travel must haves.
各位，你们听我念叨很久了，我一直跟你们说一定要去 quince.com 看看，因为那个网站真的很有意思，选择特别多。
Guys, you've been hearing it for so long now how I tell you you have to go to quince.com because the website is so fun for all the options that they have.
那个网站特别适合随便逛逛，而且价格真的无敌。
It's a great website to go click around and the prices can't be beat.
想升级你的日常用品，就下载 Quince 的 App，还有专属优惠。
Upgrade your everyday, download the Quince app for app exclusive offers.
访问 quince.com/crypto10one。
Go to quince.com/crypto10one.
下单免运费，还有 365 天退货期，现在加拿大和英国也能享受了。
Get free shipping on your order and three hundred and sixty five day returns now available in Canada and The UK too.
网址是 quince.com/crypto10one。
That's quince.com/crypto10one.
好了，各位。
Alright, everybody.
我们回到了Out East峰会现场。
We are back at the Out East Summit.
我请来了一位非常棒的嘉宾，一位真正的市场操盘手，也是这个领域的传奇人物，不是我吹牛。
I've got a great guest, a true market operator, and a legend in the space, if I do say so.
石良唐，Monarch资产管理公司的创始人和管理合伙人。
Shiliang Tang, who is the founder and managing partner of Monarch Asset Management.
石良，非常感谢你来做客。
Shiliang, thank you so much for joining us.
谢谢你的邀请。
Thanks for having me.
没问题。
You bet.
很荣幸。
Appreciate it.
你觉得这次峰会到目前为止怎么样？
What do think about the summit so far?
一如既往地精彩。
Amazing as always.
谢谢，活动很棒。
Thank Great event.
其实我昨天没怎么在场。
I mean, I wasn't here as much yesterday.
听说昨天下了大雨，但今天天气特别好。
I heard it rain and pour, but today is just a beautiful day.
对。
Yeah.
完全同意。
Totally.
乔什，你呢？
Josh and What do you
你觉得这次来的人的质量，跟过去几年那些加密货币会议相比怎么样？
think of the quality of of of folks that are here relative to over the past several years of crypto conferences?
你觉得是不是感觉不一样了？
Do you feel like it's cut from a different cloth?
对。
Yeah.
我觉得很多熟悉的面孔在这个圈子里已经很久了，但我觉得每年，你知道，现在跟以前比，机构化程度高了很多。
I would say a lot of familiar faces have been in the space for a long time, but I would say every single year and, you know, now versus previous years, there's lot more institutional.
对吧？
Right?
对。
Yeah.
是传统市场意义上的机构化，不是加密原生那种机构化。
Institutional in the traditional market sense, not like institutional in the crypto native sense.
对。
Yeah.
太棒了。
Awesome.
那我们聊聊Monarch吧，你知道的，多策略资产管理公司。
So let's dive into Monarch, you know, multi strategy asset manager.
你在这个领域一直在做期权、衍生品、现货这些。
You've been building in this space, options, derivatives, spot.
给我们介绍一下Monarch吧。
Tell us about Monarch.
你们在忙些什么？
What are you guys working on?
好的。
Yeah.
当然可以。
Of course.
Monarch基本上是我第一个基金SLEDGER Prime的延续，那个基金我从2017年运营到2022年。
Monarch is basically continuation of my first fund, which was SLEDGER Prime, which I ran from 2017 to 2022.
同样的方法，多策略。
Same approach, multi strategy.
我们的信念是，没有任何一个垂直领域或策略、子策略能在所有市场环境中都表现良好。
The belief is that not any one vertical or strategy, sub strategy will perform in all market environments.
所以我们将策略组合分散到多个领域，正如你所说，包括衍生品、做市、套利、资金费率、DeFi。
So we've diversified our portfolio of strategies into, as you said, derivatives, market making, arbitrage, funding basis, DeFi.
所以这是多种不同策略的集合。
So it's a collection of of different strategies.
我们服务的客户主要是传统的机构LP、家族办公室、私人银行和基金中的基金。
And we service traditionally institutional LPs, family offices, private banks, fund of funds.
最后，我们是FalconX的一部分。
And then lastly, we are part of FalconX.
FalconX持有该基金的多数股权，是的。
So FalconX owns the majority of the fund, and yeah.
好的。
Okay.
太棒了。
Awesome.
现在，你知道，我们是在熊市的低谷里录这期节目的。
Right now, you know, we're recording this in the pits of a bear market.
你们目前最大的策略方向是什么？
What's the biggest sleeve that you guys are running right now?
是多头、空头、做市，还是别的？如果可以的话，尽量给我们讲讲这个配置是怎么分配的。
Is it long, short, market making, and and maybe if you can, as much as you can, give us a breakdown of what that allocation looks like.
好的。
Yeah.
当然可以。
Of course.
我觉得目前的机会主要集中在DeFi和RWA（真实世界资产）的交叉领域。
I would say right now, the opportunity set sits in, I would say, a cross between DeFi and RWAs.
对吧？
Right?
挺有意思的。
So Interesting.
从历史上看，我们更偏向于加密货币原生。
Historically, we've been much more crypto native.
对吧？
Right?
就是交易山寨币、比特币、以太坊这些。
Just trading altcoins, Bitcoin, Ethereum, that complex.
在熊市里，你也知道，散户都走了。
In a bear market, as you know, retail's gone.
对吧？
Right?
资金在那里流动得没那么多了。
Capital isn't flowing as much there.
那种特殊的投机需求也不在了。
Not in the special speculative demand.
不过你也看到了，AI股票、存储芯片股票，比如那些超大规模数据中心，那边需求很大，散户关注度也很高。
However, as you've seen AI stocks, memory stocks, like hyperscalers, a ton of demand and retail attention there.
现在这些不同的资产通过TradeXYZ，还有所有加密货币原生的交易所和平台，开始上链了，形成了这种融合。
And now you have this convergence of these different assets coming on chain through TradeXYZ, but also all the crypto native exchanges and platforms.
这其实一直是未平仓合约量和关注度的重要推动力。
And that's actually been a big driver of where open interest volume and attention has been.
所以对我们这些加密货币原生的公司来说，你知道，我们显然没法跟Citadel、Millennium这些在纳斯达克、CME传统平台和交易所上的巨头竞争。
And so for us as crypto native firms, you know, obviously, we're not gonna be able to compete with the Citadel's Millenniums of the world in Nasdaq, CME traditional platforms and exchanges.
但一旦这些资产进入加密货币世界，就进入了所谓的加密轨道带来的碎片化，这给我们创造了很多机会。
But once that those assets come to the crypto world, that enters the, I would say, the fragmentation of what cryptorails create, and that creates a lot of opportunity for us.
对吧？
Right?
所以我们更专注于这方面，比如在纳斯达克做多现货，在TradeXYZ做空永续合约，赚取资金费率，或者利用周末的错位机会，你知道，这些资产在加密轨道上24/7交易，而CME或纳斯达克不开盘的时候。
So we've been focusing a lot more on that, whether it's long spot on Nasdaq, short perps on TradeXYZ and collecting the funding, right, as an opportunity or just playing the dislocations on weekends, you know, when these assets are trading twenty four seven on crypto rails and not trading on the CME or NASDAQ.
对。
Yeah.
那里确实出现了一些价差。
There's been some dislocations there.
尤其是伊朗战争，那些打击行动，你知道，都是在收盘后下午5点才宣布的。
Especially with the the Iran war, all these strikes, you know, getting announced at, you know, 5PM after market closes.
这挺有意思的，而且据我了解，Hyperliquid基本上是TradeXYZ的支柱。
It's kind of an interesting dynamic, and and Hyperliquid is kind of the backbone of TradeXYZ as far as I understand.
对。
Yep.
你觉得这些真实世界资产上链的走势会怎样？
What do you kind of view as the trajectory of these RWAs coming on chain?
你知道，今年早些时候，链上资产大概有200亿美元。
You know, earlier this year we were around maybe $20,000,000,000 of assets on chain.
对。
Yep.
现在大概在300亿左右，当然不包括稳定币。
Sitting maybe around 30,000,000,000, outside of stablecoins, of course.
那现在上链的资产主要有哪些类型呢？
But what kind of assets are coming on chain?
你觉得哪些会最先动起来？
You know, what are gonna be first to to be the quick movers?
对。
Right.
还有，大概的节奏是什么样的，大家能有个预期？
And kinda what's that pace that, you know, people could expect?
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得一开始主要是纯粹的衍生品，以及这些资产的衍生品形式。
I think initially, it was just pure derivatives and derivatives forms of these assets.
对吧？
Right?
那是最快的。
That's the quickest.
你列出来就行。
You list them.
有预言机。
There's an oracle.
你知道，可能会出现脱节，但你不用担心这些代币和另一端的真实资产是否可互换。
You know, there could be dislocations, but you don't have to worry about, you know, are these fungible versus the real assets on the other end.
随着时间的推移，会有更多监管，而且是适当的监管，这些资产实际上会变得可互换。
Over time, there will be more regulation and proper regulation, and these assets will actually be fungible.
对吧？
Right?
所以真正的纯代币化版本，你基本上可以兑换或赎回实际的股票，是的。
So the actual pure tokenized version where you can actually exchange or redeem, basically, for the actual stock Yeah.
在Shopify那边，增长越来越快。
On the Shopify side, that is growing faster and faster.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得这也是机会所在的地方。
And I think that's also where, you know, the opportunity sets.
所以这是从杠铃的两端同时来的。
So it's coming from both ends of the barbell.
对吧？
Right?
一开始，只是纯粹的衍生品，合成敞口。
Initially, it's just pure derivatives, synthetic exposure.
你知道，有时候会有很多错位，不是对基础资产的真实反映，但散户短期内其实并不在意。
You know, sometimes it's ton of dislocations, not true representation of an underlying asset, but retail doesn't really care in the short term anyway.
对吧？
Right?
但对于机构来说，显然他们需要这些资产的现实世界代币化版本。
But then for institutions, obviously, they need the real world tokenized version of these assets.
这来得比较慢，但通过Securitize和其他平台，进展越来越快。
And that's coming slower, but it's happening quicker and quicker with securitize and others.
所以我们可能会在某个时候汇合，而且我觉得规模会非常庞大。
So we'll probably, you know, converge at some point, and I think the scale is, you know, massive.
对吧？
Right?
希望这能实现两全其美，既有真实资产，对吧，不只是纯粹的迷因币和投机，而是真实资产，但跑在区块链轨道上。
And hopefully, it's the best of both worlds where you have real assets, right, not just, you know, pure meme coin and speculation, like real assets, but on, you know, blockchain rails.
对吧？
Right?
而且，你知道，从那个意义上说，这真的是两全其美。
And and, you know, the the kind of the best of both worlds in that sense.
对。
Yeah.
我见过，我觉得每天有大约十万亿美元的股票在交易，或者说十万亿美元的市值。
I've seen I think there's about a $100,000,000,000,000 of stocks that trade every day, or a $100,000,000,000,000 of market cap.
我们也看到像洲际交易所、纳斯达克、ICE，还有DIZ这样的公司，他们基本上都在投资区块链基础设施。
And we've seen folks like the, you know, Intercontinental Exchange, and NASDAQ, and ICE, or and DIZ, they are essentially investing in blockchain infrastructure.
那他们的策略是不是要搞两套并行的系统，一套是他们现有的、大家都熟悉和喜欢的，另一套是基于区块链的，然后两边可以来回切换？
Is the play there to have two parallel systems, like their standard thing that they have that everybody knows and loves, and then, you know, a parallel system that's blockchain, and you could go back and forth?
还是说他们的宏伟目标是要在区块链轨道上彻底重塑现有的东西，让区块链成为默认选项？
Or is the grand idea to completely reinvent what is existing on blockchain rails, that's just the default?
对。
Yeah.
我觉得你后面说的那个，可能是更长远的目标，但短期内，我觉得会有两个平行的世界。
I think what you said the latter piece, that's probably much longer term horizon, right, perhaps, but I think shorter term, there'll be two parallel worlds.
对。
Yeah.
就像，这需要时间，你看机构采纳加密货币花了多久，而且现在还在逐步采纳中。
Like, it's gonna take a I mean, just look at how long it took institutions to adopt crypto as a as a whole and and still being adopted.
对吧？
Right?
对。
Yeah.
我觉得人们会完全迁移到一套新的结算轨道这个想法，有点不切实际。
I think the idea that people would migrate completely to a new set of settlement rails is far fetched.
对。
Yeah.
但是，你知道，令人鼓舞的是，有这样一个开放的试验场，像ICE和其他机构，比如DIZ，都在里面做实验。
But, you know, it is encouraging that there is kind of this open playground where institutions like the ICE and and others, DIZ, are experimenting.
不过，这还是会发生在平行世界里。
It's gonna be in a parallel world, though.
对。
Yeah.
你知道什么最拖慢团队进度吗？
You know what slows teams down more than anything?
往往不是人员预算，甚至也不是工具本身。
It's not always the headcount budget or even the tools themselves.
而是工作方式只存在于某个人脑子里，从来没有被真正记录下来。
It's when the way work gets done lives in someone's head and never actually gets documented.
然后有新同事加入，或者推出新平台，再或者有同事离职，突然大家做同一个流程的方式都不一样了。
Then someone new joins, a new platform gets rolled out or a teammate leaves and suddenly everybody's doing the same process in a different way.
这正是今天的赞助商Scribe要解决的问题。
That's exactly the problem today's sponsor, Scribe, was built to solve.
Scribe是一个工作流AI平台，财富500强中有94%的公司都在使用它。
Scribe is a workflow AI platform trusted by 94% of the Fortune 500.
它能实时捕捉工作流程，并自动生成一步步的操作文档，方便团队查看和分享。
It captures workflows as they happen and turns them into step by step documentation your team can review and share.
你只需要像平时一样操作，Scribe就会边做边生成指南，自动记录每一次点击、每一步操作和每个截图。
You just do the process like you normally would and Scribe builds the guide as you go, capturing every click, step, and screenshot automatically.
因为我们的团队是远程办公，我确实遇到过好几次需要向同事重复解释同一个设置或流程的情况，总觉得这些内容第一次就该记录下来。
With our team being remote, I have definitely had moments where I've had to explain the same setup or process more than once to a colleague, and it always feels like something that should have been documented the first time.
有了Scribe，原本可能需要花几个小时编写和整理的内容，不到一分钟就能准备好分享。
With Scribe, what could take hours of writing and cleanup can be ready to share in under a minute.
Scribe还会自动从截图中隐藏敏感信息，比如姓名、邮箱和账号号码。
Scribe also automatically redacts sensitive information like names, emails, and account numbers from screenshots.
管理员可以在整个团队中强制执行这一点，确保没有任何遗漏。
Admins can enforce that across the team so nothing slips through the cracks.
另外，任何按照流程操作的人都能获得实时的屏幕指导，准确显示在实际工具中应该点击哪里。
Plus anyone following the process can get real time on screen guidance showing exactly where to click inside the actual tool.
Scribe 不只是记录工作流程，它还利用 AI 提出改进建议，帮你发现冗余步骤，并找到简化或自动化的机会。
Scribe doesn't just document workflows, it uses AI to suggest ways to improve them, helping you spot redundant steps and opportunities to simplify or automate.
想看看 Scribe 能为你的组织带来什么，就去 scribe.how/crypto101，并提到 crypto101，即可在特定套餐中免费使用 Scribe Capture 的第一个月。
To see what Scribe could look like for your org, head to scribe.how/crypto101 and mention crypto101 for your first month of scribe capture free on select plans.
网址是 scribe，scribe.how/crypto10one。
That's scribe, scribe.how/crypto10one.
现在大家都在谈论 AI，但真正重要的 AI 是那种能帮你节省时间、做出更明智决策、减轻工作负担的 AI。
Everybody is talking about AI right now, but the AI that actually matters is the kind that saves you time, helps you make smarter decisions, and takes work off your plate.
如果你经营电商业务，物流就是那种要么让你顺利推进，要么让你完全停滞的事情之一。
And if you're running an e commerce business, shipping is one of those things that can either keep you moving or completely slow you down.
这就是我喜欢 ShipStation 的原因。
That's why I like ShipStation.
这是一个为电商企业打造的一站式订单履行平台，它的AI基于全球数十亿次发货积累的几十年真实运输数据训练而成。
It's an end to end order fulfillment platform built for e commerce businesses, and its AI is trained on decades of real shipping data from billions of shipments across the world.
所以，不用再手忙脚乱地切换各种工具，ShipStation能帮你掌控全局。
So instead of juggling a bunch of different tools, ShipStation helps you stay in control.
它能在库存不足时提醒你，推荐最优的承运商和费率，自动化任务，帮你在业务增长时节省时间。
It can alert you when your stock is low, recommend the best carrier selections and rates, automate tasks, help you save time as you grow.
你还能获得跨销售渠道的库存同步、自动比价、品牌化退货门户，以及会计和CRM软件的集成，所有这些都在一个地方搞定。
You also get inventory syncing across sales channels, automatic rate shopping, a branded returns portal, and integrations with accounting and CRM software all in one place.
如果我在经营电商店铺，这正是我想要的那种工具。
If I were running an e commerce store, this is exactly the kind of tool I'd want.
因为一旦订单开始涌进来，你肯定不希望物流成为拖后腿的环节。
Because once the orders start coming in, you don't want shipping to be the thing that's holding you back.
超过一百万家企业在用ShipStation来优化和扩展他们的物流。
Over 1,000,000 businesses have trusted ShipStation to optimize and scale their shipping.
你越早切换，就能越早开始节省时间和金钱。
The sooner you switch, the sooner you start saving time and money.
今天就开始使用ShipStation，访问shipstation.com并使用优惠码crypto，即可免费使用六十天。
Get started with ShipStation today and get sixty days free at shipstation.com with code crypto.
网址是shipstation.com，优惠码是crypto。
That's shipstation.com, code crypto.
Shipstation.com，优惠码crypto。
Shipstation.com, code crypto.
税费和其他费用另计。
Taxes and fees apply.
不知道你怎么样，但我经常是到了饭点才想起还没准备晚餐。
I don't know about you, but dinner sneaks up on me all the time.
打开冰箱才发现，肉都没提前准备好。
I'll open the fridge and realize I have no protein ready.
那时候我可不想再跑一趟超市，临时去买，还得碰运气看店里还剩什么肉或者汉堡。
And at that point, I'm not trying to go to the store, make a last minute grocery run, and gamble on whatever meats or burgers are left at the store.
所以Omaha Steaks是个很好的囤货选择。
That's why Omaha Steaks is a great freezer move.
就像家里有个信得过的肉铺，在你最需要的时候随时有好蛋白质。
It's like having a trusted butcher at home and quality protein when you need it the most.
奥马哈牛排用一百多年的时间赢得了好口碑。
Omaha Steaks has earned its reputation with over a hundred years.
全国各地的厨房都信赖同样的牛肉，直接送到你家门口。
It's the same beef trusted in kitchens across the country, shipped straight to your door.
有牛排馆的品质，却没有牛排馆的价格。
Steakhouse quality without the steakhouse prices.
你的家人会以为晚餐花了好几个小时，其实没有。
Your family will think dinner took hours, but it didn't.
只要几分钟。
Just minutes.
如果你还没试过，他们的招牌汉堡组合是最佳起点。
And if you never tried them, the burger perfection flight is the perfect place to start.
你会得到20个优质牛排汉堡，用的是五种不同部位的牛排。
You get 20 premium steak burgers made from five different cuts of steak.
四块菲力牛排汉堡、四块纽约客牛排汉堡、四块肋眼牛排汉堡、四块牛胸肉汉堡和四块西冷牛排汉堡。
Four filet mignon burgers, four New York Strip burgers, four rib eye burgers, four brisket burgers, and four sirloin burgers.
各位，这简直就是汉堡界的山寨币组合。
Guys, this is the altcoin basket of burgers right here.
如果我和布莱恩在节目里，我们肯定会把这些汉堡五五分，因为你知道我们夏天多喜欢烧烤。
If me and Brian were on the rundown, we would be divvying these up fifty fifty because you know how we like to grill in the summer.
所以你拿到的不仅仅是一盒汉堡，而是不同的风味、不同的口感，还有真正的牛排馆级别的多样性，你可以随时上烤架，或者工作日快速搞定一餐。
So you're not just getting a box of burgers, you're getting different flavor profiles, different textures, and real steakhouse style variety you can throw on the grill or cook up fast during the week.
今天就到 omahasteaks.com 试试这个完美汉堡套餐吧。
Try the burger perfection flight at omahasteaks.com today.
20个优质牛排汉堡只要79.99美元，使用促销码 beef 还能再减35美元。
That's 20 premium steak burgers for just $79.99, plus get $35 off with the promo code beef.
网址是 omahasteaks.com。
That's omahasteaks.com.
结账时输入促销码 beef 立减35美元。
Promo code beef for $35 off at checkout.
条款适用。
Terms apply.
详情请见网站。
See site for details.
这感觉就像是从公开喊价交易池到电子交易的革命一样。
It seems like it's almost like the revolution from open outcry pits to electronic trading.
你知道，公开喊价仍然存在。
You know, open outcry still exists.
喊价交易也还在。
Yitting still exists.
对吧？
Right?
只是它的交易量跟以前不一样了。
It's like it does a different amount of volume than it used to.
然后甚至ETF也在取代共同基金。
And then even the ETF kind of replacing the mutual fund.
共同基金仍然存在，只是每年都有资金流出转向ETF，所以我可以想象一个像你描述的那样存在的世界，传统的东西还在，但你知道，快钱，你知道，精明的人，他们选择更好、更高效的系统，可以全天候交易，而且这几乎可能成为投资组合经理或这家大公司CEO的任务，比如，你们周末不再有休息了。
Mutual funds still exist, they just have outflows every year going towards ETFs, and so I could see a world exist just like you described where you have the traditional stuff, but you know, fast money, you know, sharps, you know, they're opting for the better, more efficient system where you could trade 20 fourseven, and it almost might even be a portfolio manager or the CEO of this big firm, you know, their mandate, like, you guys aren't getting weekends off anymore.
比如，你们的系统可以全天候交易。
Like, your systems could trade 20 fourseven.
我们全天候为客户管理风险，而不是等收盘铃响之后。
We're managing risk for our clients 20 fourseven, not after the bell rings.
没错。
Exactly.
这对我来说非常有吸引力。
Which is a huge draw, you know, to a guy like me.
我一直在想，而且我要问你这个问题，但你知道，思考数字资产的好处，对吧？
I'm thinking like, you know, always, and I'm gonna ask you this question, but you know, thinking about the benefits of digital assets, right?
那么在你看来，当你和投资者交谈或听别人说时，除了即时结算这个显而易见的好处之外，你还看到什么？
So in your view, when you talk to your investors or just hear from others, what do you view besides again, because the low hanging fruit is instant settlement, right?
当然。
Sure.
全天候、全年无休的交易。
Twenty four seven, three sixty five trading.
但除了这个，现实世界资产代币化还有哪些吸引人的地方？
But what's, like, the other draws of real world asset tokenization?
对。
Yeah.
我觉得很大一部分可能不是区块链代币化最光鲜的部分，但即使你看传统市场，支撑传统金融市场的基础是回购市场。
I think a big part of that maybe isn't the sexy part of all this blockchain tokenization, but where even if you're looking at traditional markets, what underpins traditional financial markets is like a repo market.
对吧？
Right?
回购市场。
The repo market.
给我们讲讲
Tell us
那是什么。
what that is.
这基本上就是短期融资，有时候是隔夜的，有时候是日内交易，或者就是非常短期的融资。
And it's basically like short term, sometimes overnight, intraday, or or just generally very short term financing.
对吧？
Right?
好的。
Okay.
传统世界里有很多资产，你知道，会被再抵押或者作为抵押品，或者股权，这些不同的形式需要在不同的主经纪商之间转移，用于结算、交易等等。
There's a lot of assets in the traditional world that, you know, gets rehypothecated or collateralized as collateral, basically, or equity, those different forms needs to get moved across different PBs for settlements, trading, etcetera.
什么是PB？
What's PB?
主经纪商。
Prime broker.
主经纪商。
Prime broker.
对。
Yep.
对。
Yep.
所以在这个过程中，有一个回购市场，它会看一组投资组合的抵押品和资产，然后判断，这些资产是否有信用价值？
And so that process, there's a repo market that, you know, just looks at a set of portfolio collateral and assets and determines, you know, is this credit worthy?
是否没有信用价值？
Is it not credit worthy?
我们能否提供短期现金融资用于结算，因为结算需要一天、两天，有时甚至更长时间，对于其他资产来说。
Can we provide short term cash financing for settlement so that you know, because settlement takes, like, one day, two days, sometimes even longer for other assets.
实际上，回购市场就像是底层的那种，我会说，润滑剂或机油，它让很多金融市场运转得更顺畅。
It's really the the repo markets are the underlying, like, I would say, grease or oil that streamlines a lot of the financial markets.
对吧？
Right?
比如在2008年，回购市场冻结了。
Like, in 2008, you had the repo markets were frozen.
对吧？
Right?
所以并不是说
So it wasn't
大家互不信任，不愿意借钱给对方。
Nobody was trusting each other to lend each other.
而且有时候，这其实有两方面的问题。
And, like, sometimes it it's kind of there's, like, two things.
一个是偿付能力。
There there's there's solvency.
就是说，你的抵押品，你是不是真的破产了，还是只是流动性问题？
Like, is your collateral are you actually bankrupt, or is it, a liquidity issue?
对。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
很多时候，金融危机更多是流动性问题，而不是偿付能力的问题。
And a lot of times, financial catastrophes are less about solvency, more about, like, liquidity issues.
对吧？
Right?
而且很多时候，当你深入去看，很多问题其实都出在回购市场上。
And often, when you peel under the hood, like, lot of it's driven by the repo markets.
对吧？
Right?
所以我觉得，这正是加密货币市场和区块链整体上能够真正帮助简化和解决的一个大领域，因为你有这种即时结算的概念。
And so I think that's a big area that the crypto markets, blockchain in general, can really help streamline and solve because you have this idea of, like, instant settlement.
抵押品是透明的，你可以更快地完成结算。
Collateral is transparent, you can settle things a lot faster.
而且我觉得，随着越来越多的资产上链，这只会让整个回购市场变得更加高效，而不是像现在这样。
And I think, you know, as more and more assets come on chain, that will only make the general repo market a lot more streamlined as opposed to what it is currently.
是的。
Yeah.
那你觉得，人们谈论AI提高GDP、提高生产力、产生通缩效应，这些会不会真的发生？
And do you kind of foresee that being like People talk about AI increasing the GDP, increasing the productivity, having this deflationary effect.
那你觉得在机器人领域，类似地，你会看到代币化达到那种规模吗？比如，如果我们把代币化，如果让这些市场更高效，我们真的能有一个更高效的社会吗？
And do you kind of, in robotics, of in a similar way, do you see tokenization on that scale of like, if we tokenize, if we have these markets more efficient, we could actually have a society that's more productive?
我觉得是也不是。
I would say yes and no.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得，不是所有能被代币化的东西都一定要代币化。
I think, like, not everything that can be tokenized needs necessarily to, like, get tokenized.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得，你知道，有点好笑，回看2016年、2017年，每次繁荣和萧条的周期，代币化总是回到那个共同点，就是区块链上的代币化，而不是投机，即使在2017年，人们都在说，哦，天哪。
I think it's like you know, it's kinda funny, like, even looking back since, like, 2016, 2017, every boom and bust cycle, the the tokenization has always come back to, like, the common like, tokenization in blockchain versus, like, spec like, even in 2017, people were talking about, oh oh my god.
比如，代币化。
Like, tokenization.
比如，让我们把房地产代币化。
Like, let's tokenize real estate.
我们把葡萄园也代币化吧。
Let's tokenize our our vineyard.
但实际上并没有真正实现。
But, like, it hasn't really happened.
我觉得部分原因可能是技术当时还没跟上，但另外也要看是不是真的有供需需求。
I think part of that you know, maybe part of it is, like, the technology hasn't caught up then, but, also, like, is there actually, like, supply and demand for it.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
所以我觉得这还有待观察。
Like, so I think that's still to be determined.
对吧？
Right?
金融资产，比如股票、大宗商品、贵金属，这些没问题。
Financial assets, like stocks, commodities, precious metals, fine.
但是，像其他大量非流动性资产，可能实际上真的没有太多实际需求。
But, like, large parts of other illiquid assets, maybe there actually just isn't much, like, actual demand for it.
对吧？
Right?
对。
Yeah.
所以，我们坐在这里谈论代币化和区块链，但我觉得我们开始看到比以往任何时候都更多的产品市场契合度。
So, again, we're sitting here and talking about, like, tokenization and blockchain, but I think we're starting to see more and more product market fit than we ever have historically.
是的。
Yeah.
而且我在峰会上听到的一个主题是，基本面越来越有吸引力，估值因为价格下跌而明显下降，但零售市场的熊市情绪已经完全消退。
And one of the themes that I've kinda heard from the conversations going on at the summit has been this divergence between increasingly more attractive fundamentals, valuations that are obviously down because of prices, but just bear market sentiment in the retail market completely washed out.
你可以看看资金费率。
You could look at funding rates.
几乎没有什么投机活动。
There's hardly any speculation.
你怎么看待我们现在所处的市场环境？
What do you make of just the market environment that we're in right now?
我们是怎么走到这一步的？
Kind of how did we get here?
我们现在在哪里，又是什么可能让我们重新进入新的牛市？
Where is it that we are, and and what could kinda kick us out back into a new bull market?
对。
Yeah.
你知道，这跟之前的周期其实没什么太大不同。
Know, it's it's not too dissimilar from, like, other cycles again.
对吧？
Right?
就像，历史总是重演。
Like, history repeats itself.
这是人性。
It's human nature.
比如2018年，可以说是ICO热潮之后的宿醉期。
Like, 2018 was kind of the, you know, hangover from the ICO boom.
对吧？
Right?
没错。
Sure.
从某些方面看，2024、2025年我们看到了大量山寨币被卷走跑路。
In some ways, like, we saw a ton of, like, mean coins in 2024, 2025 get got rugged.
对吧？
Right?
有些人赚了很多钱。
Some people made a lot of money.
是的。
Yeah.
但大多数人可能亏了很多钱。
Most people probably lost a lot of money.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yep.
有点像那种拉高出货，各种币，就是那些代币，不管是ICO还是不是ICO，反正一上线，然后就是每个月不断解锁、抛售，等等等等。
Kind of the pump and dumps, different coins, like, all all these, like, tokens that ICO or not ICO, but, like, launch, and then it's just constant monthly vesting and selling, etcetera, etcetera.
所以没有足够的增量资金来支撑2024、2025年涌入市场的各种代币和投机资产。
So there's not enough marginal dollar to support all the different tokens and speculative assets that rush the markets in 2425.
所以我们看到很多积压的抛压，是的。
So we're seeing a lot of overhang Yeah.
就是那些。
Of that.
对吧？
Right?
然后再加上现在有预测市场、体育博彩，还有AI股票，AI股票就是一切。
And then you couple that with the fact that now you have prediction markets and sports gambling and AI stocks going AI stocks, and that's everything.
对吧？
Right?
这其实就是注意力经济。
It's just like it's it's the attention economy.
是的。
Yes.
而且不幸的是，现在有太多其他事情在发生。
And, unfortunately, there's just so many other things that are happening.
对吧？
Right?
对。
Yeah.
但这并不意味着它永远不会回来。
Doesn't mean that it'll ever not come back.
对吧？
Right?
展开剩余字幕（还有 247 条）
我觉得我们有望开始看到一些资金回流，你知道，在某个时候。
I mean, I think we're hopefully starting to see a little bit of capital rotation back at, you know, some point.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yep.
像半导体东部这样的存储类股票，交易热度已经有所降温。
Memory stocks, like, semi east have traded cooling off a little bit.
开始看到像Anthem和其他一些股票又有点冒头了。
Starting to see the trenches, like, with Anthem and others, like, pop up a little bit again.
对吧？
Right?
对。
Yeah.
所以我从根本上相信它会回来的，但你知道，这就是注意力经济。
So it I fundamentally believe it will come back, but it is the, you know, attention economy.
对。
Yeah.
你知道，关于这个想法，就是那些热点或者可交易的加密货币领域，你会看哪些指标呢？
You know, kind of on this idea of, you know, the trenches or just tradable you know, the tradable universe of crypto, what indicators do you look at, you know, across the spectrum?
我的意思是，我不确定你是技术分析派，还是喜欢看期权曲线和资金费率，但什么是比较关键的？再说一次，你平时怎么做，但一个在家没有那些昂贵数据的人又能怎么做呢？
I mean, I'm not sure if you're a technical analyst guy or if you like looking at, you know, options, curves, and funding rates, but what's kind of like a and again, what you do, but also what could a guy at home do who doesn't have access to Yeah.
你知道，就是那些百万美元级别的数据集。
You know, million dollar data sets?
对。
Yeah.
我觉得，你知道，在交易或投资时，我想对任何人来说，个人而言，你得先确定自己的时间框架。
Think it you know, when you're trading or investing, I think you for anyone out there, like personally, I think you have to set your time frame a little bit.
对吧？
Right?
比如，你是做日内交易，还是更关注周期或者几个月这样的时间跨度？
Like, are you trading intraday, or are you thinking more about cycles or months, etcetera?
对吧？
Right?
所以，如果你更关注周期，或者更长期的月度趋势，那你应该看整体资金流向，特别是那些老钱包。
So, like, if you're looking for more, like, cycles and, you know, more longer term monthly, then I think you want to look at general flows, especially, let's say, like, old wallets.
对吧？
Right?
比如，老钱包是什么？
Like, what are the old wallets?
很多老钱包在2025年年中和秋季都在分发和卖出币，像长期持有者、比特币大户，追踪这些钱包，很明显他们在卖比特币。
Like, lot of them were distributing and selling coins middle of twenty twenty five, fall of twenty twenty five, like long term holders, long Bitcoin whales, tracking those wallets or clearly selling Bitcoin.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
而现在，过去一个月他们实际上一直在囤积。
And now they're they're actually have been accumulating in the past month.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
所以我觉得，像这样一轮一轮地追踪，一直是个挺不错的指标。
So I think, like, that tracking, like, cycle after cycle has been a pretty good, like, indicator.
对吧？
Right?
对。
Yeah.
然后你再把它跟其他因素结合起来看，比如利率、成交量、期限，还有技术面。
And then you overlay that across maybe, yeah, like, interest, volume, like, term, like, technical.
当然。
Sure.
比如你可以看，每次市场周期都会跌破两百日均线之类的，等等。
Like, you can look at, okay, every, you know, every market cycle goes below the two hundred day moving average or something, etcetera.
比如有一些技术指标，可能能帮你判断入场时机。
Like, there's some technicals maybe that helps you with, like, entry.
对。
Yep.
但我觉得，总的来说，是资金流在推动价格走势。
But I think, generally, it's flows that drive, like, price action.
对吧？
Right?
而且周期可能有点不一样，因为现在有ETF，追踪起来更难一些。
And maybe the cycle is a little bit different because you have ETFs, and that's a little bit harder to track.
是的。
Yeah.
但你仍然可以追踪贝莱德、ETF的流入流出，以及每周的整体趋势。
But you can still track, you know, BlackRock, ETF, like inflows, outflows, the general trends on a week to week basis.
对吧？
Right?
所以你要清楚自己的时间框架，理解资金流向，然后跟踪这些。
So know your time frame and understand the flows, and then track that.
对。
Yeah.
那你会不会觉得，就数据来源来说，你想推荐一些像GlassNote这样的，我第一个想到的就是它，可以跟踪长期持有者。
And would you say, in terms of data sources, you wanna give any like, GlassNote is the one that I that comes first to mind, where you could track long term holders.
对。
Yeah.
但市面上好像没太多其他数据源能跟踪这种独特的数据集。
But not many other data sources are out there that track this kinda unique dataset.
你用的是哪些？
Which ones do you use?
我觉得TIE就很好。
I mean, tie is great.
对。
Yeah.
对，就是那个TIE。
The tie.
是的。
Yeah.
当然。
Sure.
这就对了。
There we go.
我是说，至少机构层面是这样。
I mean, the institutional, at least.
对。
Yeah.
我的意思是，不是所有散户都能用TIE。
I mean, not all retail participants can use, like, the tie.
对吧？
Right?
对。
Yeah.
但你知道，我觉得几乎所有平台和产品都有面向散户的版本，不管是像Arkham还是Natsen还是其他的。
But, you know, I I think almost all platforms and products out there have a retail version, right, whether it's just like Arkham or Natsen or others.
对吧？
Right?
所以加密货币和区块链整体上的好处在于，它从一开始就秉持开放和自由的基本原则。
So the good thing about crypto and blockchain in general was it was created with the fundamental approach of openness and free.
比如，对，数据是公开的。
Like, right, data is free.
也许不是每个人都有能力去抓取和解读这些数据，但它们就在那里。
Maybe not everyone has the ability to scrape that and interpret that data, but it is out there.
对吧？
Right?
比如，不管是交易所的市场数据，还是区块链数据，它们本质上都是公开的。
Like, whether it's market data from exchanges, whether it's blockchain data, it it is fundamentally there.
而且希望现在借助AI工具，人们能更好地获取这些数据。
And hopefully using AI tools now, like, people will have a better ability to access that dataset.
对。
Yeah.
我很想聊聊加密货币里投资和交易的区别。我觉得你可能是两者都做，因为我和DIZ的Josh聊过，他说你既是活跃的风险投资人，也是活跃的交易者。
I'd love to kinda talk about the the binary between investing and trading in crypto, and I feel like you're you're probably both because I was talking to Josh actually from the DIZ, he says you're a prolific venture investor as well, but also you're a prolific trader.
所以在加密货币领域，有很多交易机会，你不需要关心某个币或资产未来十年的走势，你只关心接下来一天或者什么的。
And so in crypto, there's a lot of trading opportunities where you don't care if this thing, you don't care the trajectory of this coin or this asset over the course of ten years, you just care about the next day or whatever.
但你知道，我觉得很多观众更偏向投资者阵营。
But you know, I think a lot of folks who are watching are more in the investor camp.
他们会说，嘿，我有自己的日常工作，我不会花整天整夜去和你这种有系统的人比交易。那么你能给普通投资者什么建议呢？不是说买这个币、买那个币，而是你觉得什么样的币值得长期投入？
They're like, hey, I got my day job, I'm not gonna spend all day and all night trying to out trade a guy like you who has the systems, and so what can you tell the average Joe about investing in crypto, and again, not saying, oh, buy this coin, buy that coin, but what kind of coin do you find that you would be willing to put your money in long term?
那这种价值捕获的方法是什么？
What and and what is that value capture method?
对。
Yeah.
我觉得对任何人来说，一个普遍的建议是，虽然这是老生常谈，但要有坚定的观点，但也要灵活变通。
I think for for anyone, I think, like, one advice in general, and it it's a common piece of advice, but, like, you know, have strong opinions, but, like, loosely held.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得加密货币发展得太快了。
I think, like, crypto has evolved, like, so much.
2017、2018年或2021、2022年暴涨的币，有时候现在一文不值。
Coins that rocketed in 2017, '18, or 2122, like, sometimes are just, like, completely worthless.
对。
Yeah.
它们可能不会从
They might not come back from
现状中恢复过来。
the existing.
所以，我觉得我们可能正接近一个转折点，希望情况会明朗，也许不会，不管人们是否意识到，历史治理代币或均值代币等，有些有价值，但你知道，它们不一定能长久。
So, like, I think in general, we are probably reaching inflection point, and hopefully clarity passes, maybe, maybe not, regardless of people realizing that historical governance tokens or mean tokens, etcetera, like, some have value, but, you know, they're not necessarily long lasting.
对。
Yeah.
而且如果你相信这个领域会成为一个真正的机构级资产类别，最终币可能在某些方面会跟股票差不多，对吧？
And if you do believe this space will become a proper institutional asset class, and eventually coins are actually gonna be probably just similar to equities in some ways, right?
比如，也许终于会有收入、使用量和现金流与代币需求之间的那种联系，以及真正的、实实在在的需求。
Like maybe there'll finally be that link between revenue and usage and cash flow back to token demand and, you know you know, like, actual, like, proper demand.
对吧？
Right?
如果这种联系真的存在，那么资本就会流向那些类型的代币。
Like, that link actually, you know, exists, then capital flow to those type of tokens.
对吧？
Right?
所以，回顾历史，交易所代币，比如币安、Hyperliquid，已经证明了这些代币确实有实际价值。
And so, you know, looking back in history, exchange tokens, right, like Binance, Hyperliquid, it demonstrated that there is actual value to these tokens.
对吧？
Right?
至于这些价值如何累积，那要看情况。
And how that accrues depends.
你知道，有些是回购销毁，有些是分红之类的，对吧，或者分配。
You know, some is buy and burn, others are whatever dividends, etcetera, right, or distributions.
所以，是的。
So Yep.
我觉得如果我们真的考虑长期，而不只是短期的投机需求，那么只关注那些你能清楚追踪到收入、使用量和费用的实际代币，我认为你基本上就安全了，找到那些代币，如果你有两三年、三四年的投资周期的话。
I think if if we're really thinking about long term and not just the short term short term speculative demand, then just focusing on actual tokens that you can clearly track, like, the revenue and usage and fees, I think you're generally safe, find those tokens, you know, if you have, like, a two, three, four year horizon.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
不。
No.
这非常有道理。
That makes a ton of sense.
这个周期里另一个大赢家是预测市场，我不确定Polymarket会不会发币，或者Calculation会不会发币。
One of the other big winners this cycle has been prediction markets, and I'm not sure if, you know, Polymarket's gonna come out with a coin, or if Calculation will come out with a coin.
他们有股权持有人，对吧？
They've got equity holders, right?
但我很好奇，从你的策略来看，你们会不会通过预测市场来对冲仓位，或者做多、做空？
But I'm curious from your strategies, if and how you do hedge positions, or speculate long or short on the markets through prediction markets.
对。
Yeah.
这是你们提供的服务吗？
Is that something you guys facilitate?
我们没有直接交易过预测市场。
We haven't directly traded prediction.
但我们开始大量吸收这些数据，对吧，因为你有这些涨跌合约，五分钟、十五分钟、每小时等等。
We have started to ingest a lot of that data, right, because you have these up down contracts, five minutes, fifteen minutes, hourly, etcetera.
那些基本上就是二元期权。
Those are just basically binary options.
对吧？
Right?
所以你可以直接交易这些预测市场，然后和真正的加密原生期权或者线性永续合约做套利。
And so you can just trade those prediction markets and arbitrage against actual crypto native options or using, like, a linear perps.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
所以这两者之间肯定有很多重叠的地方。
So there's definitely a lot of overlap there.
我觉得，更广泛地说，如果你是一个基本面驱动的对冲基金，比如说，这其实是公开的。
I think, like, the broader piece is, like, if you are a fundamentally driven hedge fund, let's say and this actually was public.
我记得好像是ARCA和Galaxy可能还做过其他交易。
I think it was, like, ARCA and Galaxy maybe printed other trades.
我忘了是谁，但肯定是ARCA。
I forget who, but it was definitely ARCA.
但基本上，他们持有大量代币，这些代币会因《清晰法案》通过而受益。
But, basically, they have a lot of exposure to tokens that benefit if the Clarity Act gets passed.
对吧？
Right?
哦，有意思。
Oh, interesting.
如果你知道这些代币在法案通过时会受益，不通过时会受损，那你就可以用Polymarket上的《清晰法案》预测市场来对冲这个投资组合的风险，基本上就是这样。
If you know these tokens are gonna benefit or get hurt if it doesn't get passed, well, you can hedge that portfolio exposure with, you know, the Polymarket, Clarity Act, like, prediction market, basically.
对。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
现在大概在40%左右徘徊。
Think right now it's trending about 40%.
对吧？
Right?
差不多，对，基本上就是这样。
Like, percent, yes, basically.
所以，如果你知道自己的投资组合会有很大的下行风险，那你应该买入对冲，比如押注《清晰法案》不会通过。
And so, you know, if you know there's gonna be a lot of downside in your own portfolio, well, you should buy and hedge, like, saying that Clarity won't pass.
如果它没通过，你至少能在那个方面对冲你的投资组合。
And if it doesn't pass, you at least, you know, hedge your portfolio in that regard.
对。
Yeah.
不。
No.
这太有意思了。
It's fascinating.
这你知道，我知道它现在开始进入主流了，因为我爸都开始问我关于预测市场的事了，你知道，他总是在周期快结束的时候问我，比如‘嘿，你对AI怎么看？’
It's something that you know, I I know it's starting to come into the mainstream now because my dad's asking me about prediction markets, which is like, you know, he'll always kinda ask me towards the end of a cycle, like, oh, what do you think about AI?
我就想，好吧。
It's like, okay.
太好了。
Great.
现在AI火了。
Now AI's popping.
你对加密货币怎么看？
What do think about crypto?
加密货币也火了。
Crypto's popping.
所以你就开始问我预测市场了。
So you just started asking me about prediction markets.
所以可能那边的势头会稍微减弱一点。
So maybe the the wind might come out of the sails a little bit there.
但我还是想把风险投资这块的讨论收个尾。
But I kinda wanted to round out the discussion on the venture side.
那你觉得，什么样的团队或项目会让你眼前一亮，觉得，嘿。
And, you know, what do you look for in a team or a project that makes you say, hey.
我会把自己的钱投进去，那你的经历是怎样的，你在风投方面大概是什么样的，当你基本上说行或不行的时候？
I'm gonna put my personal money behind this, and what what's your history and and venture kind of looked like when you basically said yes or no?
对。
Yeah.
我觉得，你知道，我会说有两到三个不同的维度。
I think, you know, I would say two to three different dimensions.
对吧？
Right?
比如，很多时候，这是我在进入加密领域之前，以及在我的传统金融交易世界之后学到的东西。
Like, oftentimes and this is something I learned before I got into crypto and post my trading TradFi world.
我刚刚创办了一家金融科技公司，作为联合创始人，把它带过了Y Combinator。
I just started a fintech company, cofounder, took it through Y Combinator.
所以我在那里学到了很多教训，至少是他们在投资方面的方法。
So I learned a lot of lessons there and at least, like, how they approach, like, investing.
对吧？
Right?
而且，显然，这已经发生了巨大的变化。
And, obviously, it's changed tremendously.
你知道，那时候，我们的批次比现在小得多。
You know, back then, our batches were way smaller than what it used to be.
对吧？
Right?
但我觉得，有一点很突出，就是当你投资于种子前或种子轮时，真的不一定关乎产品本身。
But I think, like, one thing that stuck out was just, you know, when you're investing in pre seed or seed, it's really not necessarily about, like, the product.
对吧？
Right?
某种程度上，你会采取这样的理念，就是你在寻找趋势，而且通常有句话说，水涨船高。
In some ways, you you kinda take the philosophy that, like, you're just looking for trends, and, generally, the the saying is, like, a rising tide lifts all boats.
对吧？
Right?
只要你投资在正确的趋势和正确的领域，你不一定总是要投资最好的团队或最好的产品。
Like, as long as you're kinda investing in the right trend and right sector, you don't have to always invest in, like, the best team or best product necessarily.
对吧？
Right?
就是说，你只要找到一个至少还算靠谱的团队，他们应该也能做出一些成绩来。
Like, you can kind of just, like at least, like, competent enough team probably will be able to at least eke out, you know, some games.
对吧？
Right?
有点像……
It's kinda like
只要你以合适的价格拿到它，
And so long as you get it at the right
或者合适的营销时间表。
price or poly marketing calendar sheet.
对吧？
Right?
就是说，我不一定非得是最优秀的那个。
Like, I don't necessarily have to be messing the best.
很多时候，我觉得关键就在于坚持和团队。
Too often, like I think it just comes down to, like, perseverance and the team.
对吧？
Right?
就像有很多例子，比如爱彼迎的历史，你知道，布莱恩·切斯基，他们很喜欢讲那个故事，至少YC很喜欢讲。
Like, there's so many like, the Airbnb history, you know, Brian Chesky, like, they love to talk about, like y c at least love to talk that story.
对吧？
Right?
爱彼迎最初的想法其实很糟糕。
They the initial idea of Airbnb was, like, terrible.
简直荒谬又愚蠢。
It was ridiculous, stupid.
但关键在于不断调整方向、不断测试，比如了解你的客户。
But, like, to share, like, preference of fairness is just pivoting and testing and etcetera, like, knowing you're a customer.
最终，他们成功了。
Ultimately, like, they succeeded.
对吧？
Right?
而且我觉得，在任何行业里，这样的例子都很多，最初的想法和理论其实是错的。
And I think, like, there's so many examples of that through any vertical where the initial idea and, like, theory was wrong.
对。
Right.
但到了某个阶段，通过不断迭代的能力，他们最终成功了。所以我觉得，很多时候关键并不完全在于那个具体的想法。
But at some point, through just, you know, the ability to iterate, they achieve, like so so I think a lot of it goes into not necessarily just, like, the actual idea.
当然，想法也很重要。
It's like, yes, that's important.
比如，他们是否走在正确的道路上？
Like, are they out to you on the right path?
但只要方向对了，更多的就是看团队和人的品质了。
But as long as they're on right path, then it becomes more about judging, like, the team and the character.
是的。
Yeah.
不是。
No.
这太不可思议了。
It's incredible.
最后一个问题，下一个趋势是什么？
Last question is, what's the next trend?
是不是所有趋势都已经存在了，比如AI、加密货币之类的，还是说你个人在投资一些我们很多人还没听说过的东西？
Is are the all all the trends already existing, right, AI, crypto, that kind of stuff, or is there something that, you know, you're personally investing in that maybe a lot of us haven't heard about yet?
对。
Yeah.
我觉得我花了很多精力在研究这个，不过我还不能确定它会不会真的成为一个流动性很强的市场，但我希望它会。
I think I've been doing a lot of work into I'm not you know, I haven't made my judgment in terms of whether this is actually gonna take off as a very liquid marketer, and I hope it does.
基本上就是算力交易。
It's basically compute trading.
对吧？
Right?
一些交易。
A few trading.
好的。
Okay.
太好了。
Great.
做了很多工作。
Spend a lot of work done.
比如，Brett 和那个架构师，要么刚推出，要么我们马上就要推出。
Think, like, Brett with the architect either just launched or we have to launch, like, very shortly.
还有一些其他市场也会随之推出。
There's a few other markets that are launching with it.
所以我觉得 CME 和其他机构已经宣布了上市意向。
So I I think CME and others have announced the intentions to market.
太不可思议了。
Incredible.
这个市场挺难的。
It's a difficult market.
对吧？
Right?
但如果它真的起飞了，我觉得它可能会成为一个全新的资产类别。
But if it does take off, I think it could be a completely new, like, asset class.
对吧？
Right?
作为交易员，我们想看到的就是新的资产类别、大量的错位机会，还有没有历史数据可参考。
And as a trader, like, that's what we wanna see is new asset classes, a lot of dislocations, no prior history.
你知道，量化分析是必须的。
You know, the quants necessary.
你不能第一天就进场，然后就把所有套利机会都吃干抹净。
You can't just, like, step in day one and just, like, arb everything out.
对吧？
Right?
对。
Yeah.
所以这是值得关注的事情。
So that that's something to keep an eye on.
是的。
Yeah.
我不是想误导你，说这是最后一个问题然后又追问你。
And so I don't mean to head fake you and say that was the last question and hit you with another follow-up.
但这确实是个非常吸引人的话题，我觉得很多听众对计算交易了解不多。
But it's a super fascinating topic, and I don't think a lot of our listeners really know about compute trading.
我想大家都知道，比如查询Claude时，会看到它显示用了100个token。
I think everybody knows, oh, in order to query Claude, I see it says, okay, it's used a 100 tokens.
现在变成了一千个token。
Now it's a thousand tokens.
你说的意思是，像是对每次查询的价格进行投机，还是这叫什么？
Is that what you're saying, like, speculating on the price per query, or or what is this called?
你已经想到了，我猜，在机构层面。
You've already been thinking I would say, like, on the institutional front.
对吧？
Right?
所以，不同的机构会有不同的需求，我猜，更大的规模，不是像你我这样的个人，而是像亚马逊那样的。
So, like, different institutions will require, like, different, I guess, amount of larger well, not like individual like me and you Like an Amazon.
对。
Yeah.
然后他们就需要有能力对冲他们在业务上的敞口，以及他们在重型机械上的花费。
Then they would need the ability to hedge exposure in businesses to how much spend they are in intense machinery.
哦，有意思。
Oh, interesting.
所以……
And so
就像农民需要对冲他的庄稼一样。
So just like a farmer needs to hedge his crop.
有点像以前的电力期货，或者有一段时间比特币矿工想交易算力之类的。
Almost like in some ways, maybe like electricity futures back in the day or like there was a period of time where Bitcoin miners wanted to trade like hash rates, for example.
对。
Yeah.
因为他们直接暴露在算力风险中，所以想有个市场来对冲他们的算力。
Because they have a direct exposure to hash rate, and they wanted to have a market to hedge like, their hash rate.
对吧？
Right?
真有意思。
Fascinating.
可惜这个市场一直没发展起来。
Unfortunately, that never developed.
希望计算市场能比算力市场更成功。
Hopefully, computing markets are more successful than hash rate markets.
对吧？
Right?
对。
Yeah.
也许吧，也许不是，但差不多就是这个类比。
Maybe, maybe not, but that's kinda like the analogy.
有意思。
Interesting.
好的，世亮，这次聊得真棒。
Well, Shiliang, this was awesome.
你真是慷慨地花了这么多时间，祝你峰会余下时光愉快。
You've been very generous with your time, and enjoy the rest of the summit.
希望在家观看的各位喜欢这次对话。
I hope everybody at home watching enjoyed this conversation.
世亮·唐，Monarch资产管理公司的管理合伙人和创始人。
Shiliang Tang, managing partner and founder of Monarch Asset Management.
大家在哪里可以关注你的动态呢？
Where could people kind of follow along on your journey?
你经常用领英和X吗？
Are you big on LinkedIn, X?
是的。
Yeah.
我是说，你可以在X上找到我。
I mean, you can find me on X.
用户名就是Shiliang Tang。
It's literally just Shiliang Tang.
或者他是那个独一无二的。
Or he's in The one and only.
对。
Yeah.
可以看看我们的网站，就是Monarch-AM.com。
Check out our website, you know, Monarch dash AM dot com.
所以，谢谢你。
So thank you.
太棒了。
Awesome.
非常感谢你，世亮。
Thank you so much, Shiliang.
正在观看的各位，希望你们喜欢。
Everybody at home watching, hope you enjoyed.
我们下次会带来更多优秀的嘉宾。
We'll see you back with some more great guests.
好的。
Alright.
保重。
Take care.
保重。
Take care.
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