Fed Rate Cut Decision LIVE: How Markets Reacted to the Fed Decision Today

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That's men go to mars.com for 50% off, three free gifts when you check out.

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And it's also available on Amazon.

你下单之后，商家会询问你是从哪里了解到他们家产品的。

After you purchase, they will ask you where you heard about them.

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Please support our show and tell them Crypto one zero one sent you.

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Again, for a limited time, our listeners get 50% off and free shipping for life plus three free gifts.

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Also, check them out on Amazon and wherever you purchase it, tell them Crypto one zero one sent you.

是不是因为吃喝太多、庆祝太嗨，感觉整个人都提不起劲？

Feeling sluggish from all the extra food, drinks, and celebrations?

用科学验证的方法，为新的一年重启状态。

Kick off the new year with a science backed reset.

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Quicksilver Scientific's Push Catch liver detox is a patented simple two step system that supports your liver, gut, and whole body detoxification, helping clear out what's slowing you down so you feel energized for the year ahead.

这不只是简单的排毒。

It's more than a cleanse.

Quicksilver Scientific的Push Catch肝排毒，能帮你彻底调整身体状态。

Quicksilver Scientific's Push Catch Liver Detox helps reset your system.

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这些声明未经美国食品药品监督管理局评估。

These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration.

本产品不用于诊断、治疗、治愈或预防任何疾病。

This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease.

下午好。

Good afternoon.

我和我的同事们始终专注于实现促进充分就业和稳定物价的双重目标，以造福美国民众。

My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people.

美国

The U.

经济

S.

经济正在稳步增长。

Economy has been expanding at a solid pace.

尽管就业增长依然疲软，但近几个月失业率基本保持稳定。

While job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months.

通胀率已经上升并处于高位，部分原因是近期全球能源价格的上涨。

Inflation has moved up and is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.

今天，联邦公开市场委员会决定维持政策利率不变。

Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged.

我们认为，当前的货币政策立场有助于推动实现充分就业和2%通胀目标。

We see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward our maximum employment and 2% inflation goals.

中东局势的发展给经济前景带来了高度不确定性，我们将持续关注对就业和通胀双重目标的潜在风险。

Developments in The Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook, and we will remain attentive to risks to both sides of our dual mandate.

在简要回顾经济形势后，我会进一步说明货币政策的考量。

I'll have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments.

最新数据显示，经济活动仍在以稳健的速度增长。

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace.

消费者支出保持强劲，企业固定资产投资也持续快速扩张。

Consumer spending has been resilient and business fixed investment has continued to expand at a brisk pace.

相比之下，房地产领域的活动依然疲软。

In contrast, activity in the housing sector has remained weak.

就业市场方面，3月份的失业率为4.3%，近几个月来基本没有波动。

In the labor market, the unemployment rate was 4.3% in March and has changed little in recent months.

新增岗位数量一直处于低位。

Job gains have remained low.

过去一年就业增长放缓，很大一部分原因是移民减少、劳动参与率下降导致劳动力供给增速放缓，不过劳动力需求也确实出现了走软。

A good part of the slowing in the pace of the job growth over the past year reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well.

其他各项指标，包括职位空缺数、裁员规模、招聘量和名义工资增速，近几个月来整体都没有太大变化。

Other indicators, including job openings, layoffs, hiring, and nominal wage growth, generally show little change in recent months.

最近通胀有所上升，目前仍高于我们设定的2%长期目标

Inflation has moved up recently and is elevated relative to our 2% longer run goal.

根据消费者价格指数及其他数据测算，截至今年3月的过去12个月里，整体个人消费支出物价指数上涨3.5%，这主要是中东冲突推高全球油价带来的影响

Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data indicate that total PCE prices rose 3.5% over the twelve months ending in March, boosted by the significant rise in global oil prices that has resulted from the conflict in The Middle East.

剔除波动较大的食品和能源品类，核心个人消费支出物价指数在截至今年3月的过去12个月里上涨3.2%

Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 3.2% over the twelve months ending in March.

这个相对偏高的涨幅很大程度上是商品领域的关税带来的价格影响

This relatively high rate largely reflects the effects of tariffs on prices in the goods sector.

今年短期通胀预期有所上升，很大程度上是因为油价大幅上涨。

Near term measures of inflation expectations have risen this year, likely because of the substantial rise in oil prices.

大多数长期预期指标仍与我们2%的通胀目标保持一致。

Most measures of longer term expectations remain consistent with our 2% inflation goal.

我们的货币政策始终以实现充分就业和物价稳定这两大目标为指导。

Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people.

在今天的会议上，委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%。

At today's meeting, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.5%.

经济前景依然高度不确定，中东冲突进一步加剧了这种不确定性。

The economic outlook remains highly uncertain, and the conflict in The Middle East has added to this uncertainty.

短期内，能源价格上涨将推高整体通胀水平。

In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation.

至于这些影响的范围和持续时间，以及冲突未来的走向，目前都还不明朗。

Beyond that, the scope and duration of potential effects on the economy remain unclear, as does the future course of the conflict itself.

我们将持续关注对就业和物价这两大目标构成的风险。

We will continue to monitor the risks to both sides of our dual mandate.

我们会结合最新数据、不断变化的经济前景以及风险平衡状况，灵活决定未来是否需要进一步调整政策利率，以及何时调整。

We are well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.

货币政策的走向并非预先设定好的，我们会在每次货币政策会议上逐一研判、做出决策。

Monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will make our decisions on a meeting by meeting basis.

这是我最后一次以美联储主席的身份出席新闻发布会，最后我想分享几点个人想法。

This is my last press conference as chair, and I will close with a few thoughts.

首先，我要祝贺凯文·沃什今早顺利通过参议院银行委员会的提名审核。

First, I want to congratulate Kevin Walsh on his advancement out of the Senate Banking Committee this morning.

这是向前迈出的重要一步，我祝愿这一进程顺利推进，也祝他一切顺利。

This is an important step forward and I wish him well as that process continues.

这真是个大失误。

Huge blunder.

美联储成立的根本目标只有一个：打造能让美国家庭和企业蓬勃发展的经济环境。

The Federal Reserve exists for one fundamental purpose, to foster the economic conditions in which American families and businesses can thrive.

也就是稳定的物价、强劲的就业市场，以及大家可以信赖的金融体系。

Stable prices, a strong job market, and a financial system they can depend on.

我们所做的每一项决策，无论是关于利率、监管还是其他事务，都是为了实现这一目标。

Every decision we make, whether about interest rates or regulatory and supervisory matters or other issues, is made in service of that purpose.

我们的决策体现了理事会和联邦公开市场委员会全体成员的集体判断，他们以严谨的分析、坚定的原则和对公共利益的真诚投入著称。

Our decisions reflect the collective judgment of the Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee, colleagues who demonstrate analytical rigor, principled judgment, and a genuine commitment to the public interest.

长期以来，我们的协作与审慎决策过程都体现着一种共同的信念：为了完成使命，寻求共识。

Our collaborative and deliberative process has long reflected a shared commitment to finding common ground in service to our mission.

这个机构坚韧有力，人才济济，工作人员都极具才华且无比敬业。

This institution is resilient, capable, and staffed by professionals of extraordinary talent and exceptional dedication.

能与理事会和整个美联储系统中这么多杰出的公职人员并肩工作，我深感荣幸。

It has been a privilege to serve alongside so many great public servants at the Board of Governors and around the Federal Reserve System.

美联储的工作成效，取决于公众对我们的理解，而你们媒体，正是让公众了解我们做什么、为什么这样做的关键桥梁。

The Fed's work is only as effective as the public's understanding of it, and you, the press, are essential to keeping the public informed about what we do and why.

公众从你们细致的报道中获益良多。

The people we serve benefit from your careful reporting.

上星期五，我欢迎华盛顿特区联邦检察官宣布终止刑事调查。

I welcomed the announcement last Friday by the US Attorney for the District Of Columbia that she had closed the criminal investigation.

不过她也明确提到，随时都有可能重启这项调查。

She also noted, however, that she would not hesitate to restart the investigation.

上周末，司法部给出了明确说明：除非美联储监察长提交刑事调查移交申请，否则不会重启调查。即便要就此前的法院判决提起上诉，上诉过程中也不会要求重启调查、也不会发出新的传票。

Over the weekend, the Department of Justice provided assurances that they will not reopen the investigation unless there's a criminal referral from the Fed's Inspector General, and absent such a referral, if they do appeal the recent court decision, they would not seek as part of that appeal to restart the investigation or send new subpoenas.

我之前说过，在这项调查完全结束、整个过程公开透明、有最终定论之前，我不会离开美联储理事会，这个承诺我不会改变。

I've said that I will not leave the Board until this investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality, and I stand by that.

近期的进展让我感到乐观，我也在密切关注后续流程中剩下的每一步。

I'm encouraged by recent developments, and I'm watching the remaining steps in this process carefully.

在这些事务上，我的所有决策始终都会以一个原则为唯一导向，那就是我坚信对美联储以及我们所服务的民众最有利的选择。

My decisions on these matters will continue to be guided entirely by what I believe is in the best interest of the institution and the people we serve.

我的主席任期将在5月15日结束，之后我还会继续担任美联储理事，具体任期时长待定。

After my term as chair ends on May 15, I will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time be determined.

担任理事期间，我会尽量保持低调。

I plan to keep a low profile as a governor.

美联储董事会永远只会有一位在任主席。

There's only ever one chair of the Federal Reserve Board.

等凯文·沃尔什获得确认并宣誓就职后，他就会成为主席。

When Kevin Walsh is confirmed and sworn in, he will be that chair.

一旦他正式就任董事会主席，他的新同事们还会选举他兼任联邦公开市场委员会主席。

Once sworn in as board chair, his new colleagues will elect him to chair the FOMC as well.

我经常说

As I regularly

你能不能别说

Can you not say

到底卡在哪儿了？

what's holding?

我们能否实现目标，关系到所有美国人的利益。

Our success in delivering our goals matters for all Americans.

我相信，美联储将继续以客观、诚信和坚定的服务承诺，履行好自己的职责。

I'm confident that the Fed will continue to do its work with objectivity, integrity, and a deep commitment to serve the American people.

谢谢，我期待大家的提问。

Thank you, and I look forward to your questions.

谢谢您，主席先生。

Thank you, mister chair.

感谢您对媒体的肯定。

Appreciate the kind words about the press.

这种认可通常不会在各地的讲台上听到，但我真的很感激。

Often doesn't come from the podium in different places, but appreciate that.

您能谈谈是什么促使您决定继续留在董事会吗？

Can you talk about what is gone into your decision to remain on the board?

您在权衡哪些标准？您可能会留多久？

What kind of criteria are you weighing and how long might

您会待多久？

you stay?

谢谢。

Thank you.

当然可以。

Sure.

是这样的，我现在最担心的是美联储接连遭遇法律攻击，这些威胁会影响我们独立制定货币政策、不受政治因素干扰的能力。

So, you know, my my concern is really about the series of legal attacks on the Fed, which threaten our ability to conduct monetary policy without considering political factors.

在这里我必须说明，这些法律攻击和民选官员提出的口头批评完全是两码事。

And I I wanna note here, this has nothing whatever to do with verbal criticism by elected officials.

我从来没有说过这种口头批评有什么问题，在场的其他人也都没有提过。

I I've never suggested that such verbal criticism is a problem and neither has anyone else here.

但本届政府采取的这些法律行动，在美联储113年的历史上是从未有过的，而且目前还有人威胁要发动更多类似的行动。

But these legal actions by the administration are unprecedented in our one hundred and thirteen year history, and there are ongoing threats, of additional such actions.

我非常担心这些持续的攻击正在重创整个机构，还会危及一件对公众至关重要的事——也就是我们能否在制定货币政策时完全不受政治因素干扰。

I I worry that these attacks are battering the institution and putting at risk the thing that really matters to the public, which is the ability to conduct monetary policy without taking into consideration political factors.

这点对我们服务的经济、所有民众都太重要了，他们得能一直信赖这家央行，相信它能始终在不受政治影响的前提下运转。

It is so important for our economy, for the people that we serve, that they can depend over time on a central bank that operates that way free of political influence.

这正是我们目前拥有的这股强劲经济势头的核心基础之一。

It's part of the absolute foundation of this amazing economy that we have.

这也是美国之所以（原文未表述完整）

It's just one of the many reasons why The U.

美

S.

国经济才能让全世界都羡慕。

Economy is the envy of the world.

这种制度框架正是区分强国和弱国的关键。

That piece of an institutional architecture separates successful countries from unsuccessful countries.

这点至关重要，它不是为了美联储的在职人员服务的，而是为了我们要服务的全体民众。只有美联储不受政治裹挟，永远保持独立制定货币政策的能力，才不会为了扶持或打压某一位政客、某一个政党而偏离正轨。

It is extremely important, not for the people who work at the Fed at any given time, but for the people that we serve, that the Fed remain able to conduct monetary policy in a way that doesn't get pulled into politics, trying to help or hurt any particular politician or political party.

这对我们服务的民众来说至关重要。

It's critical for the people that we serve.

至于我什么时候离任，我会在我认为时机合适的时候离开。

In terms of when I would leave, I I will leave when I when I think it's appropriate to do so.

你们的问题都问完了吗？还是还有别的？

Was that all your questions or was that?

我还有个跟进问题想请教。有批评声音说，你继续留在董事会里，本身就是一种政治行为，还会让特朗普总统无法在董事会内获得多数席位——如果（你离任的话，总统本是能拿到这个多数席位的）

Well, I just have a follow-up which is what would you say to the criticism that by remaining on the board, you're actually taking a political act and denying President Trump the majority of the board which as president he would have if

你喜欢的。

you like.

总统，鲍威尔。

The president, Powell.

我完全不这么看。

I I don't see that at all.

正如我提到的，我留下来完全是由于这些举措。

As I mentioned, you know, I'm literally staying because of the actions that have been taken.

我原本计划退休，但过去三个月发生的事让我别无选择，只能留下来，至少看到这些事情有个了结。

I I had long planned to be retiring and you know the things that have happened in really in the last three months have I think left me no choice but to stay until I see them through at least that long.

另外，我看不出这会有什么干扰。

You know in addition, I don't see how this will interfere.

我的本意并不是要干预。

My intention is not to interfere.

你知道，我曾是理事，但只是在这张图里，

You know, I was a governor But for for only this picture,

我想知道你是不是总统的

I wonder if you're the president's

第二天。

next day.

问题是，美联储的理事们都很清楚主席这个职位有多难，作为即将卸任的主席，我深知要让19位个性鲜明的人达成共识有多不容易。

Question is at the Fed that governors who understand how difficult the role of chair is, and as a soon to be former chair, I do understand how hard it is to get consensus with 19 strong minded people.

你要和主席合作。

You work with the chair.

你要表达自己的意见，但也要尽量配合主席，能在关键时刻支持主席就支持。

You try to be heard, but also collaborate with the chair and try to support the chair when you can.

实在支持不了，那也没办法。

When you can't, you can't.

我觉得大多数人都是这么想的，我也会这么去做。

And I think that's the attitude that people generally take and that's the attitude that I'll take.

尼克。

Nick.

山姆。

Sam.

我想问一下通胀前景。

If I could ask about the inflation outlook.

三月份的时候，您提到，对于能源冲击采取视而不见的做法，前提是通胀预期保持稳定。

In March, you described the standard practice of looking through energy shocks as conditional on inflation expectations staying anchored.

自那次会议以来，关键的能源贸易通道几乎没有恢复的进展。

Since that meeting, there has been very little progress reopening, key energy trade corridors.

您能否帮我们理清一下，在这期间通胀前景发生了哪些变化？首先是关税传导的预期时间线，就像您三月说的那样，然后再看现在叠加的能源冲击。

Can you help us understand how the inflation outlook has changed in the intermeeting period beginning with the prospects for tariff pass through resolving on the timeline that you had outlined in March before getting to the energy shock that is now on top?

我觉得可以这么看。

So, you know, I would look at it this way.

长期以来，我们一直基于一个假设，那就是关税会导致一次性价格上升，但之后会逐渐消退。

For a long time, we've been working on the hypothesis really that tariffs would lead to a one time price increase and that that would go away over time.

换句话说，价格不会持续攀升，所以衡量的通胀率不会因此不断往上走。

In other words, there would be no further change, so measured inflation wouldn't reflect that higher level going up more and more.

现在是时候让这种情况发生了。

And it's time for that to happen.

我们确实预计在未来两个季度内会出现这种情况。

You know, we really do expect that to be happening in the next two quarters.

因此我们会密切观察，看看我们一直认为会发生的事是否真的发生了。

So we'll be watching very carefully to see that what we've thought all along would happen.

这是预测中最关键的部分。

The kind of critical part of the forecast.

我们真的必须看到这一点。

We we need to really see that.

至于能源方面，这就很难说了。

With with energy, it's it's so hard to say.

我之前提到过，按教科书上的说法，面对油价冲击，通常会忽略它，因为这类冲击往往是短期的，事后也会回归常态，而货币政策的效应本身就有很长且不稳定的滞后性。

I I mentioned, you know, in, you know, sort of the textbook, you you would look through it an oil shock because they tend to be short lived and they tend to revert and monetary policy works with long and variable lags.

所以，你并不一定会立刻做出反应。

So, you know, you wouldn't necessarily react right away.

考虑到我们已经连续几年通胀高于2%，而且现在已经在忽略关税带来的冲击，这一点就更加成立了。

I think that is all the more true given that we're several years above 2% inflation and that we're already looking through the tariff shock.

所以我觉得我们在这件事上必须非常谨慎。

So I think we're going to be very cautious about that.

但关于是否忽略能源价格波动的问题，眼下根本不是我们该考虑的时候。

It's but the question about about looking through energy really is not not in front of us right now.

能源价格还没到顶呢，我觉得得等它开始回落，同时关税问题也有进展之后，才可能考虑降息。

It hasn't even peaked yet and I think we'd want to see the backside of that and progress on tariffs before we even thought about reducing rates.

那我能不能接着问一个问题。

So if I could follow-up.

今天的声明保留了当初委员会在积极降息时使用的措辞，这些说法已经形成了特定含义。

The statement today preserves language that has taken on some meaning as it was socialized when the committee was actively lowering rates.

既然现在的通胀前景和一两场会议前相比已经大不相同，为什么这种宽松倾向还留着？要达到什么条件，它才会被彻底移除？

Why is that easing bias still ripe given how different the inflation outlook is now versus a meeting or two ago and what more would have to happen for it to get evicted?

正如你所记得的，我们在上一次会议上讨论过这个问题，三月会议后的记者会上也提过。

So, that was, as you will recall, we had a discussion about that at the last meeting and we talked about it in the press conference after the March meeting.

今天我们也是这么讨论的。

We had the same today.

我们对这个问题、相关指引，以及它是否仍然合适，展开了非常激烈的讨论。

We had quite a vigorous discussion about that very issue and the guidance and is it still appropriate and that kind of thing.

我觉得，现在委员会里支持把措辞改为中性立场的人越来越多了，也就是认为加息和降息的可能性相当。

And I would say that the, you know, number of people on the committee who either could support that language change changing to a more neutral stance so that the hike is as likely as a cut.

这段时间以来，持这种观点的人明显增加了，原因也很明显。

That number has increased over the intermeeting period and it's easy to see why.

这确实是个好问题，对吧？

I mean, it's it's it's it's a good question, right?

你会发现，这段时间通胀有所上升。

You see, inflation has moved up over the interim a bit.

核心通胀现在是3%。

Core inflation is three.

现在是2%。

Two now.

虽然只是稍微往错误的方向走了一点，但我们知道海湾地区即将公布整体通胀数据，具体数字还不清楚。

Moving albeit just a little bit in the wrong direction and we know that there will be you know that there's headline inflation coming out of The Gulf and we don't know how much that will be.

我们只能等看情况了。

We just we're going to need to see.

所以人们关注这一点，展开激烈讨论，完全说得通。

So it makes all the sense in the world that people would look at that and we'd have a vigorous discussion about that.

你注意到了吧，有三个人对措辞提出了异议。

You saw that three people dissented over the language.

我觉得这三个人其实都同意利率决定。

I think all of those people agreed with rate decision.

委员会多数人并不觉得有必要改，我觉得这次会议也没必要改。

So the majority of the committee did not want to do that and I didn't think we needed to do it this meeting.

关键就在于，我们为什么非得现在改呢？

It really was just a question of what's why do we need to do that now?

你知道，我们还有很多东西要学习。

You know, we have so much to learn.

前方的道路充满太多不确定性。

There's so much uncertainty about the path ahead.

现在没必要急于做这个决定，因为未来三十天、六十天，甚至下一次会议前发生的事，都可能彻底改变我们对这段措辞的看法。

There doesn't need to be any rush to make that decision now because, you know, what what happens in the next thirty, sixty days, even by the next meeting, could really change the picture around that around that language.

这次委员会内部的分歧比三月份要大得多。

So, you know, it was a it was a much closer thing on the committee than it was in March.

在我看来，这完全说得通。

And, you know, that makes all the sense in the world, it seems to me.

克莱尔。

Claire.

克莱尔·琼斯，《金融时报》。

So Claire Jones, Financial Times.

我们再回过头来看看这个宽松倾向的问题。

Just just going back to this issue of the the easing bias.

如今，作为基准的布伦特原油价格已经逼近每桶120美元。

We've now got oil approaching $120 a barrel when it comes to the benchmark Brent crude.

如果六周后油价还维持在这个水平，你觉得声明里还会保留宽松倾向吗？你最看好哪种情况？

If it stays around those levels six weeks from now, what would be your guess best guess as to whether the easing bias will still be in the statement?

谢谢。

Thank you.

我其实不想乱猜的。

I I wouldn't wanna guess.

首先，到那个时候，领导层大概率已经换届了，新任领导在这件事上会起到非常关键的作用。

You know, well, first of all, we're gonna have new leadership in all likelihood by then and and new leadership's gonna have a very important role to play in that.

不然的话，我也不会站在这个讲台上回答你的问题了。

So, I won't be standing here at this podium to answer your question.

我现在也不确定具体情况。

So, I don't know.

就像我刚才说的，我能透露的只有，我们今天就此展开了很有成效的讨论。

As I mentioned, that's all I can really say is that we had a great discussion about that today.

现在这个问题比之前过渡阶段的情况更值得探讨了。

It's you know, it's gotten to be a better question than the interim period.

我们确实讨论过这个问题。

We had the discussion.

大多数人还是觉得没必要调到那个水平，我也持同样的看法。

The majority are still on the page of not feeling the need to move to that level, and I I that's where I am.

我明白你的意思。

I I get it, though.

当然，到了某个时候我们终究会行动，说不定下一次会议就会有动作。

You know, at a certain point, you would move, and that that conceivably could come as soon as the next meeting.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我再问个跟进的问题。

Just a follow-up.

玛格丽特不会喜欢这个说法的。

Margaret's not gonna like

各位。

that folks.

他好像对新闻发布会和点阵图都没什么热情。

Seem rather lukewarm on press conferences and on the dot plots.

关于这些沟通工具，你会给他什么建议呢？

What would your advice to him be on these communication tools?

我今天就不通过你给他提什么建议了，但在我看来，沟通这件事本身，每一位新任主席都会重新梳理沟通方式，这是很合理的。

So I'm I'm not gonna give him any advice through you today here, but I've, you know, I think communications generally is, I think every incoming chair takes a look at communications and it's a very healthy thing.

毕竟这套机制很复杂，你永远可以探索新的方向，如果真的要做调整，那也是完全合情合理的。

I mean, is, it's very complex and, you know, you can always be looking at new things and if that happens, feels like it's going to happen, that's a completely appropriate thing.

您好，

Hi,

鲍威尔主席，我是高盛的工作人员。

Chair Powell, Dealing with Goldman Sachs.

请问您有没有和候任主席博尔希取得联系？

Can you tell us if you've been in touch with incoming Chairman Borsch?

目前的过渡流程属于常规情况，还是和目前外界的各种传闻一样是反常的？另外，几周后他正式履职主持会议时，我们可以看到哪些情况？

Any to what extent is this a normal transition process versus all the things swirling around, something unusual, and what can we expect when he takes that podium in a few weeks?

一月的一场晚宴上我见过他一次，当时我向他道了贺，还和他愉快聊了几句，之后就再没见过了。

I haven't seen since seeing him at a dinner in January where I congratulated him and had a nice chat with him.

之后就没再碰面了。

Haven't seen him.

我也说不好什么才算是常规的交接流程。

I don't know what a normal process is.

上一次交接是和耶伦一起，我和她已经共事六年了，而且我们当时办公室就在同一条走廊上，情况和这次完全不一样。

You know, the last process was with Janet Yellen, with whom I had worked for six years, and so it was, you know, we were sitting down the hall from each other, so it was a very different thing.

我认为现在的交接过程非常标准，今后也会一直保持正常有序。

I think this is and will be a very normal standard kind of a kind of a transition process.

这正是我所预料的情况。

So, that's that's what I expect.

我有充分的理由相信事情一定会按这个节奏发展。

I have every reason to think it will be.

我还有个小问题跟进一下。

Quick follow-up.

最高法院对库克州长的裁决，会不会影响你离任的时间？

Is the supreme court ruling on governor Cook a factor in when

你打算什么时候卸任州长？

you may leave as a governor?

我倒没这么想过，但其实没太大关系。

I wasn't thinking of it as such, but no, not really.

我更在意的是之前提到的那些其他事情。

I mean, I'm thinking more of the other things I mentioned.

克里斯。

Chris.

你好。

Hi.

谢谢你回答我们的问题。

Thanks for taking our question.

我想问一下你任期内的事，还有美联社的克里斯·鲁加伯。

I wanted to ask a question about your tenure and Chris Rugaber at Associated Press.

在您担任主席期间，您经常提到弱势群体能从长期低失业率中获益。

During your tenure as chair, you often spoke about how disadvantaged Americans benefited from extended periods of low unemployment.

部分经济学家认为，美联储2020年出台的新政策框架提升了就业目标的优先级。

In the new framework the Fed adopted in 2020, some economists say elevated the Fed's employment mandate.

您会不会担心，随后疫情引发的通胀飙升会让美联储未来的决策者不敢再推行维持劳动力市场火爆的政策？您觉得他们应当有这种顾虑吗？

Are you worried that the pandemic inflation spike that followed will make future Fed shares more reluctant to pursue a hot jobs market and should they be?

这个问题我还真答不上来。

I don't know the answer to that.

我是说，2010年中期那几年，失业率长期维持在非常低的水平，通胀率也一直没抬头，所有人都注意到了这个情况。

I mean, what we so what we experienced in in the teens, the mid teens was really low levels of unemployment for a long period of time and no reaction from inflation and we all took very much took notice of that.

我们还发现，收入最低的那部分群体拿到的薪资涨幅是最大的。

We also noticed that the biggest wage gains were going to people at the bottom end of the income spectrum.

当时还有很多这样的案例，整个社会的经济状态都挺稳定的，不少好处都落到了低收入群体头上，比如很多企业会主动去培训那些还在服刑的人员，帮他们在出狱前做好准备。当时整个社会的运转状态都非常健康。

And we had many, many reports of, I mean, it felt like a fairly stable equilibrium and a lot of benefits were flowing to people at the bottom end of the income spectrum including companies were, you know, setting up in, you know, people who are confined and and like training them before they got out and it was it was a very healthy sort of set of societal dynamics.

所以说，谁都希望能回到那样的状态，这很正常。

So, course, I think anybody would love to get back to that.

别以为全球疫情引发的通胀跟过度重视就业市场有什么关系。

Don't think that anything that happened to create the global pandemic inflation was in any way related to overweighting the employment market.

这是一场全球性的冲击，几乎在世界各地同时发生，跟封锁、重启、经济刺激这些因素有关。

I mean, it was a global shock that happened essentially very, very similarly all over the world that had to do with closing, reopening, stimulus and all that.

你要是看一张包含十大经济体的图表，根本分不清哪个是美国，哪个是德国或法国。

And I mean, you could look at a graph of 10 big economies on the page and not know which was The US and which was Germany, France and things like that.

所以，我认为这种观点根本不是导致我们经历高通胀的原因。

So I don't think that insight was in any way responsible for the high inflation that we experienced.

我一直觉得，这始终是个平衡问题。

So, I mean, I think it's always been a balance.

我们得同时重视双重使命，比如现在，我们就觉得劳动力市场根本不是通胀的来源。

You've got to be strong on both of our dual mandates and we just, for example, now we don't feel that the labor market is at all a source of inflation.

所以，我们没必要为此担心。

So, we don't need to be worrying about that.

我们已经很久没为这事操心了。

It's been a long time since we have had to worry about that.

实际上，在疫情复苏期间，劳动力市场确实过热、非常紧张，那时候我们才需要担心，但现在不用了。

Well, actually, during during the pandemic recovery, the labor market was super overheated and tight and that's when we had to worry about it but but not now.

关于另一个问题，您是不是需要司法部给出更多保证之后才考虑离职？

And just on the other issue, are you would you need do you need more assurance from the Justice Department before stepping down?

您是在等这个吗？还是有别的原因？

Is that what you're waiting for or what else?

我在等调查彻底结束，做到完全明确和透明，我会在觉得合适的时候离开。

I'm waiting for for the investigation to be well and truly over with finality and transparency and I'm waiting for that and I will leave when I think it's appropriate to do so.

迈克尔。

Michael

麦基。

McKee.

我是彭博电视台和广播的迈克尔·麦基。

Michael McKee from Bloomberg Television Radio.

我想请您再详细说明一下，或者更清楚地解释一下关于利率的两种不同观点。因为有些联邦公开市场委员会的成员曾表示，即使没有战争，也可能需要加息，因为通胀下降得太慢了。

I'd like to ask you if you could explain a little more or characterize a little more the discussion about the two sided view and interest rates because there were some members of the open market committee who have been suggesting that we may need to raise interest rates even absent the war because inflation was not coming down fast enough.

目前有没有可能还得继续加息？还是说刚才的表态只是为了提醒大家，你们担心战争带来的影响？

Is there any sense that interest rates might have to go up or was this just a setup to sort of warn people that you're worried about the war impacts?

不管是那三位投了反对票的委员，还是其他原本可能支持加息的人，不管是有投票权的成员，还是没投票权但持相同看法的人，所有人都认同这次的正确决策，没错吧？

So nobody the three dissenters and and others who could have supported that and others who were, you know, who were voters and prefer nonvoters who preferred it, they all supported the right decision, right?

所以现在没人说我们得立刻加息。

So, people are not saying we need to hike now.

大家更多是在考虑，我们是不是应该保持政策中立，另外也要关注市场现在的走势。

It's more a question of, you know, don't we kind of feel that we should be neutral and markets are markets, what are markets doing?

有人提出，这种做法和目前市场的走势是吻合的。

People argue that this is consistent with markets are doing.

再者说，这个问题提得非常合理，但这些调整本质上属于前瞻指引。我们调整政策的时候，得确保它能长期站得住脚，逻辑始终成立，而不是推出没多久就又要推翻重来。

And again, it's a very fair question, but you know, these changes, there is, you know, it's a form of forward guidance and you want to make, you don't want to make them, you want to make them in a way that will be sustained and continue to make sense and not something you need to take back fairly quickly.

所以当时包括我在内的一部分人都认为没必要急着做这件事——市场完全能理解我们的政策应对逻辑，这方面根本不存在需要解决的问题。不过刚才我也提到了，持相反立场的观点也很有道理，这是一场非常有价值的讨论，最终的结果就是我们看到的这样。

So I think we just a group of us, including me, didn't feel like we needed to be in a hurry on that markets are not confused about our reaction function, we don't have a problem to solve on that, but the other side of the argument is a good argument too, as I mentioned, it's a perfectly good argument to be having, good discussion to be having, so, and it came out the way it came out.

这次有三位官员投了反对票，他们都支持提出双向的政策预警。

Well, you've got, three dissents, in favor of, two sided, warning.

你自己的任期还在继续。

You've got yourself staying on the board.

你面临来自民选官员的批评，还有不少人指责美联储在2020、2021年应对通胀时反应太慢。

You've got the criticism that does come from elected officials, and you've got a lot of, critics who have faulted the fed for being too slow 2000, '21 with inflation.

你担心这些会损害美联储的公信力吗？

Are you worried about fed credibility under all of this?

这是否也是你选择留任的原因之一？

Is that one reason that you wanna stay on?

现在这并不是我考虑问题的主要因素。

Not not driving my my thinking now.

我的意思是，货币政策最终是由19个人共同决定的。

I mean, monetary policy is going to get made by, you know, 19 people.

这里面有相当大的稳定性。

There's a lot of stability there.

你想啊，每一位新上任的美联储主席都面临同样的情况：FOMC里有18位同事，每年有11位拥有投票权，你的任务就是促成共识——要跟他们沟通，理解他们的想法，走进他们的思维，把大家凝聚起来，推动决策向前走。

I mean, if you think about it, any every new fair Fed chair has the same situation, which is you've got 18 colleagues on the FOMC, 11 of them vote during any year, and you have to, your job is to create consensus, it's to talk to them, understand them, you know, be inside their thinking, and be able to pull them together and get consensus and move.

每位美联储主席都得这么做。

And that's what every Fed chair has to do.

我觉得凯文·沃什其实挺合适的，他有本事把这活儿干得很好，我觉得。

I think Kevin Warsh is actually quite well, he has the capabilities, skills to be very good at that, I would think.

所以，我对这个过程没那么担心。

So, I think I'm not so worried about that process.

我觉得这事自然会解决的。

You know, I think that'll work itself out.

霍华德。

Howard.

谢谢您，鲍威尔主席。

Thank you, Chair Powell.

我是路透社的霍华德·施耐德。

Howard Schneider with Reuters.

您提到过，如果继续担任理事，您打算保持低调。

You you mentioned that, staying on as a governor, you intend to keep a low profile.

我只是想知道，您能否再详细说说，具体会是什么样子，您怎么做到这一点？

I'm just wondering if you could give us a little more detail on what that looks like and how you can touche.

就是说，您怎么一步步走下来。

What that yeah, walk down the steps.

具体来说，在政策讨论中，您如何参与其中，又不会变成一个幕后掌权者，不会对决策过程产生过大的影响？

What that looks like, and particularly around the policy discussion, how you're able to have your intervention and not be a shadowed chair and not have a kind of an outsized influence over the process.

是的，这种事我根本不可能做。

Yeah, you know, that's just something I would never do.

那个幕后主席的说法。

You know, the shadow chair thing.

不会的，说实话，我也不确定具体会怎么做，但我只是回去当一名理事。

No, it's, you know, I it's it's I I don't know what the exact specifics of it will be but I'm going back to being a governor.

我尊重主席这个职位。

I respect the role of chair.

我以前也当过主席。

I, you know, I was a chair.

我当过六年的理事，所以太清楚这个位置是什么状态了。

I was a governor for six years and I know what that's like.

我当时还和耶伦主席走得很近，另外我还和伯南克主席共事过两年，不过那时候我刚进这个体系，一切都是全新的。

I know what and I I had a a you know, pretty front row seat with particularly with with chair Yellen to whom I I was close when I when I I was worked with chairman Bernanke for two years but you know, I I I was brand new at that time.

所以我非常清楚这个岗位的难处，也特别能理解要把这群人拧到一起达成共识有多难。我一直都不想无端给主席添乱，我能做的就是配合主席的方向，如果实在做不到那另说，一直以来大家都是这么做的。毕竟主席也只有一票，唯一能依靠的就是推动共识的能力，如果所有人都不肯灵活变通，那工作根本没法推进。

So, I got a sense of what it was and I had real sympathy for how hard it is to get that group to consensus and I always felt like I, you know, I don't want to add to that unnecessarily and that means try to support the chairs where the chair, the direction the chair wants to go and if you can, if you can't, you can't, but and I think that's that's the way it's always worked there because the chair only has one vote plus the ability to develop consensus and if people won't be, you know, they they won't, if they're not flexible at all, then, how do you ever do that?

所以主席真正的权力，本质上是和大家建立信任、一起协作，最终拿出一个能达成共识的方案。而我也打算做这个过程中非常积极配合的参与者。

And so, that's why the chair has, the authority the chair has, really, is to develop relationships with people and work with them and then and then put something forward that has consensus and I, you know, I I propose to be a very constructive participant in that process.

完全是出于对主席这个职位的尊重。

Really out of respect for for the office of the chair.

那以你即将接任州长的身份来看，你觉得未来几周油价传导至核心通胀的风险有多大？

And in your view as a a soon to be governor, how do you see the risks of oil prices bleeding into core inflation in coming weeks?

因为之前有不少评论，尤其是几位美联储分行行长提出的，他们都非常担心油价会影响到核心通胀水平。

Because that was it seems like the commentary that was coming from particularly some of the reserve bank presidents, they were elevated concerns about the bleed into core.

而且现在你看，已经有三位票委投了反对票了。

And, you know, here we are with three dissents now.

你觉得这种相关性有多大可能？

What do you see as the prospect of a correlation?

说实话，这种可能性是存在的。

You know, prospects are real.

不过你要明白，可能性虽有，但最终还得等一等、看一看。

Remember, though, they're real and the real thing is we're going to have to wait and see.

我们得亲眼看到才行。

We're going to need to see.

好消息是，我们认为当前的政策立场正好适合我们静观其变。

And the good news is we think our policy stance is just is in a very good place for us to wait and see.

我们现在正好处在中性利率的高位，甚至略带一点限制性。

We're right kind of at the high end of neutral or perhaps mildly restrictive.

劳动力市场正显示出越来越多的稳定迹象，但通胀却有点失控，所以稍微偏紧一点，或者保持在中性上限，可能是最合适的。

The labor market shows more and more signs of stability, whereas inflation is kind of misbehaving, and so maybe a little bit of restriction or the high end of neutral is just the right place to be.

这样我们就能在这里观望，等事情明朗了再行动，看看通胀到底会传导多少到核心数据里。

So we can wait here and see how things work out before we act, And we'll see how much that, you know, how much does come through in decor.

当然大家现在已经能从机票价格里感觉到了，接下来说不定很多其他领域都会出现这个情况。

You see it already in airfares, of course, but you may see it in many other places.

问题是目前我们还不清楚，一切都是未知数，毕竟谁也说不准这个海峡要封多久。

Know, we just don't know yet, and it's so unknown because how long will the strait be closed?

你可以随便推演各种可能的情况，但在事情真正落地前谁都没法下定论。好在我们目前的处境很稳，有条件等事态慢慢发展。

You can develop any number of scenarios that you want but we really won't know until we know so fortunately we're in a good place to wait and let things develop.

谢谢主席先生。

Thanks, mister chairman.

现在每次会议结束后，你都会召开新闻发布会，不像以前只有发布季度经济预测（SEP）的会议才会开，是从什么时候开始这么做的？

You started holding post, post meeting press conferences for every meeting as opposed to the ones with just, with SEPs.

你能不能说说，为什么你认为这么做整体来看是件好事？

Can you talk about why you see that as a net positive?

其实我们之前每季度开一次新闻发布会的时候就说过，我们可以在任何一次会议上调整政策，但过去我们一直只在发布SEP的季度会议上行动，因为只有这些会议有新闻发布会。

So we we always said when we were doing quarterly press conferences, we always said, we can move at any meeting but we only ever moved at the quarterly SEP meetings where we had the press conference.

你想想，疫情期间我们每次会议都会调整政策，有时候还会在休会期间调整，如果那时候要配合开这么多新闻发布会，难度会非常大。

So, if you think about it, you know, we during the pandemic, we were moving like a lot at every meeting and sometimes between meetings and doing that with our press conference, I think would have been quite challenging.

这已经成为行业的标准做法。

It's become the industry norm.

这就是现在的惯例。

It's the standard.

我不确定非得一直这样下去不可。

I don't know whether that has to remain that way.

说实话，我也说不准。

I don't know.

我的意思是，大家早就习惯了这种方式，我觉得这确实很有帮助——由我们统一传达委员会的立场，而不是让十八个人各自出去发表意见，那样的话信息就乱成一锅粥了。好在我们目前还保持着一致。

I mean, I it's it's just something people have become used to and I I do think it's quite helpful to, you know, to I mean, I I try to deliver a message on behalf of the committee rather than 18 people, 18 other people going out and delivering their message and it's, you know, it's gonna be all over the place because we do, thankfully, have

大家的看法差异很大。

widely disparate views.

好的，谢谢。

Okay, thanks.

我还想问一下去年的沟通机制评估。

The other thing I wanted to ask about was the communications review from last year.

你能描述一下去年的讨论吗？

Could you describe the debate last year?

当时考虑了哪些改动？

What changes were considered?

你们希望改成什么样？

What you wanted?

那为什么没有采取任何行动呢？

And what prevented action, any action on those changes?

嗯，我就不细说那些特别小的细节了，但很快我们就发现，像改动点阵图或者SEP这样的大调整，委员会里根本找不到广泛支持的方案，所以我们就放弃了。

So yeah, I'm not going to go into the real small specifics, but what we found very quickly was that making making changes, making really large changes, for example, to the dot plot or the SEP, it didn't have, we couldn't come up with anything that had really broad support on the committee and so we just moved on.

这方面我们其实没怎么深入做。

We didn't really do as much on that as we might have.

说实话，我从来不是点阵图的铁粉，但没更好的替代品，也只能先用着。

And, you know, I was never the world's biggest fan of the dot plot, but you can't beat something with nothing.

我们其实也看过不少其他方案，就像我说的，我觉得每位新主席上任后，都会重新审视我们的沟通工具，想想哪些地方可以改进。

And, you know, there's a, we've looked at a bunch of things, and you know, it's something, like I said, I think every new chair is going to look at our suite of communications and think about what would be changes.

我们是唯一不发布经济预测的主要央行，之所以会这样，是因为我们委员会有19名成员，不管是想在理事会层面推进这件事，难度都非常大。

We are the only major central bank that doesn't publish a forecast, and that's because we have a 19 person committee and, you know, you try to do it, you try to do that on the at the board, that's hard.

放到整个委员会层面来做，同样很难。

At the at the committee, that's hard.

就算是让工作人员团队来做，也一样行不通。

It's hard if you do it at the staff.

所以目前这套机制其实是可行的，就一直沿用下来了。

So it it's, you know, it's been it works.

我觉得我们目前的沟通工作还不错，但去琢磨能不能用更好的方式把这件事做得不一样，本来就是再正常不过的想法。

I think our communications are fine, but looking at doing it in a different and better way is the most natural thing in the world.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我是《纽约时报》的科尔比·史密斯。

Colby Smith with the New York Times.

我想接着迈克刚才关于加息的问题再问一下：目前是不是可以这么认为，对美联储来说，即便要采取偏强硬的立场，也还是会继续维持暂停降息的节奏？

If I could follow-up on Mike's question about hikes, are we right to assume that the hawkish outcome for the Fed is still one in which the committee just extends the pause in rate cuts?

委员会内部是否越来越觉得，现在的货币政策根本谈不上紧缩？

And to what extent is there a growing sense within the committee that monetary policy really isn't just restrictive at all right now?

尽管遭遇了重大的能源冲击，经济依然表现得相当稳健。

The economy is holding up relatively well despite this major energy shock.

失业率已经略有下降。

The unemployment rate has ticked lower.

通胀在战争爆发前就一直在横盘，现在又开始上升了。

Inflation was moving sideways even before the war and is now moving higher.

那委员会目前对这个问题的看法是怎样的？

So so where is the committee at on that debate?

我们现在的看法是，利率水平已经处在合适的位置。

You know, where we're at is we think our really, we think our policy rate is in a good place.

如果需要加息，我们一定会明确发出信号，并且付诸行动。

If we need to hike, we will we will certainly signal that and we will and we will certainly do it.

如果有必要降息，而且条件合适，我们也会明确传达相反的立场。

And if we need to to cut, then if it's appropriate to cut, then we'll signal the opposite.

我觉得我们现在处于一个可以灵活应对的状态，所以目前没人主张加息。

I think because we feel like we're in a good place to move in either direction, nobody's calling for a hike right now.

所以最终还得看局势怎么发展。

So it really is going to depend on how things evolve.

说到底，情况就是这样。

And you know, that's really where it is.

正如我之前提到的，这一轮关于调整指引的讨论其实更接近，但最终我们还是没改。

As I mentioned, closer question this cycle on changing the guidance, but ultimately we didn't.

至于这场战争，随着冲突持续，你认为对增长的威胁什么时候会超过对通胀的威胁？

And as it relates to the war, at what point do you think the risk to growth will be larger than the risk to inflation as this conflict drags on?

你只能通过实际数据来判断。

You know, you just have to find that out empirically.

要知道，我们是能源出口大国，经济对能源的依赖，尤其是对石油的依赖，远不如七十年代那么高，所以这些冲击对美国的影响，远小于西欧和亚洲那些受冲击更严重的地区。

You know, with given our, the fact that we're, you know, a big exporter of energy and that our economy is far less energy intensive, oil intensive than it was during the seventies, you know, the the effects on The United States are really substantially less than those of Western Europe or Asia, who are feeling much greater effects from these things.

我们现在感受到的影响，以及市场预期中那种相对快速结束的情景，其实都还比较有限。

The effects we're feeling in, you know, in the current situation, currently and in sort of what's priced in, which is, you know, a relatively quick outcome.

如果这种情况持续更久，价格再涨得更高，我们感受到的压力也会更大。

If this goes on for much longer and prices go much higher, then we'll feel that much more.

当然，我指的是整体通胀数据。

And, of course, I'm talking about aggregate inflation numbers.

我们很清楚，现在全国上下油价都在上涨，这对大家确实是个负担。

We know we're very well aware that people are experiencing higher gas prices all over the country now and that hurts.

而且，这类涨价可能还会继续发生。

That's and these are those those hikes may continue to happen.

其他方面也会开始体现出来，比如机票价格，还有那些依赖石油及其衍生品的产品和服务。

And other things are going to start to reflect airline fares I mentioned and other products and services that are dependent upon petroleum and derivatives of petroleum.

人们会逐渐感受到这些影响。

People are going to start to feel that.

爱德华。

Edward.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢，特雷弗。

Thank you, Trevor.

爱德华·劳伦斯，福克斯商业频道。

Edward Lawrence with Fox Business.

那我直接问你一个问题吧。

So, I guess I'll just ask you directly on this.

市场预计今年根本不会降息。

The markets don't see a rate cut at all this year is what they're predicting.

你觉得我们现在处于中性利率水平了吗？

Do you think that we are at the neutral rate?

为什么这么认为，或者为什么不这么认为？

Why or why not?

中性利率这个东西，我们其实没法确切知道。

You know, the the neutral rate is a we cannot know it with, with certainty.

我觉得差不多已经接近中性利率了。

I think pretty close to the neutral rate.

对的。

Yeah.

我一直都认为，中性利率大概在3%到4%这个区间里。

I I always had it, you know, between 34%.

现在我们的利率略高于3.5%。

We're a little north of three and a half.

所以这个水平完全处在我眼中合理的区间里，只不过是落在区间的上限部分，这个区间里的数值都符合我对中性利率的合理判断。

So, that's well in the range of what I would consider a reasonable reasonable but at the higher end of the range of what I would consider reasonable neutral rate.

在我看来，目前劳动力市场还在缓慢降温，我认为没什么理由觉得当前的政策还需要大幅收紧；我反而觉得现在的政策最多是偏紧，基本已经处于中性水平了。

You know, I think you're the the labor market is still probably cooling off just a little bit and I don't think there's much of a case for any case really for policy looking meaningfully restrictive, maybe mildly restrictive or neutral, I would say.

接下来我想跟进几个其他问题，聊聊你个人之后的一些规划。

And I wanna follow-up on some of the other questions about, your future a little bit.

现在美联储已经出现了四次异议投票，上一次发生这种情况还是1992年10月。你卸任的时候，是不是留下了一个内部意见分裂的美联储？

The the first time we've seen the four dissents now since October 1992, are you handing off a divided Fed?

有一点要明确：美联储内部一直都有激烈的讨论，而且这些讨论都非常有价值。

You know, the the thing to remember is we have always had vigorous debates and they're excellent debates.

得说他们表现得非常好，尤其是在这么不寻常的困难情况下。

Have to say they've been really good and in an unusually difficult situation.

我们确实经历了四次供给冲击。

So we've really had four supply shocks.

你甚至可以说不止四次，但至少我们经历了疫情。

You can actually can you can say more than four, but at a minimum, we've we had the pandemic.

我们还遭遇了乌克兰战争。

We had the invasion of the of Ukraine.

还有关税，现在又遇上伊朗问题和油价飙升。

We had tariffs, and now we have of Iran and the oil you know, the oil spike.

每一次供给冲击都有可能推高通胀和失业率。

So those every every supply shock has the capability of driving inflation up and unemployment up.

那你能怎么办呢？

And and what do you do?

你知道，央行在应对这种局面时真的很难判断该怎么做。

You know, you're it's it's the central bank has a really hard time knowing what to do.

所以正确的做法是努力平衡这两个目标，这正是我们的框架所要求的。

So the right thing to do is to try to balance the achievement of those two goals and that's what our framework calls for us to do.

但这些判断真的非常艰难。

But these are really tough, difficult judgments.

你得对每个变量做出预测。

You've got to have a forecast for each variable.

你得考虑要多久才能回到目标水平。

You've got to think how long it's going to take to get back to target.

你得评估政策是偏紧还是偏松。

You got to think how restrictive or not is policy.

因此，委员会里有不同的看法是很自然的。

So, it's only natural that you have a range of views on the committee.

大家对情况的理解本来就会不一样。

You know, people are going to see it different ways.

每个人的风险承受能力不同，情况也各有侧重。

They're going to have different risk tolerances and that kind of thing.

我的意思是，如果大家都意见一致，那才真叫奇怪呢。我觉得这在一定程度上是因为，我们过去五六年来一直面对着异常严峻的供应冲击。

I mean, if everybody agreed that would be would be surprising and I think it's only it's partly a function of the extraordinarily challenging set of supply shocks that we've been dealing with now for five, six years.

非常感谢您，鲍威尔主席。

Thank you so much, chair Powell.

我是ABC新闻的塞琳娜·韦恩。

Selena Wayne with ABC News.

您是否相信凯文·沃尔什能顶住特朗普总统的政治压力？

Are you confident that Kevin Walsh will stand up to political pressure from president Trump?

他在听证会上已经明确表达了这一点，我愿意相信他的话。

So he he testified very strongly to that effect in his hearing, and I and I'll I'll take him at his word.

现在汽油价格已经涨到每加仑四美元以上了。

And when it comes to gas, right now, it's over $4 a gallon.

通胀率刚刚升至两年来的最高点。

Inflation just hit a two year high.

美国人今年剩下的时间里，是不是得做好汽油继续涨价的准备？

Should Americans expect to be paying higher gas prices for the rest of this year?

在您看来，这是否意味着降息的可能性被排除了？

And in your view, does that take a rate cut off of the table?

其次，您继续担任美联储理事，这向总统传递了什么样的信号？

And secondly, by staying on as, Fed governor, what message do you think you're sending to the president?

我不知道今年剩下的时间油价会怎么走。

I I don't know what gas prices are gonna do for the rest of the year.

这取决于霍尔木兹海峡关闭的时间有多长，以及它能多快重新开放，诸如此类的因素。

And it will depend on how long the strait remains closed and how quickly it can be reopened and that kind of thing.

但别忘了，油价上涨意味着老百姓口袋里的可支配收入减少了。

But remember, when gas prices go up, that's disposable income coming out of people's pockets.

所以他们在其他方面的支出就会减少。

So they're going to spend less on other things.

这样一来，GDP就会受到冲击。

So there will be a hit to GDP.

关键在于，消费下降能否抵消通胀带来的影响，这还是个问题。

It's a, you know, it's a question whether spending, you know, goes down to offset the inflationary effects.

所以，单凭这一点，很难提前就确定是否该调整利率。

So it's not the answer isn't obvious ex ante whether you should move your rate because of that.

我们得看看事态怎么发展。

We'll have to see how it evolves.

关键问题就在于此。

And the message is that's the question.

您会继续留任吗？

Mind staying on?

我还是坚持我之前说过的话。

I'll stand on what I said earlier.

维多利亚。

Victoria.

你好。

Hi.

我是《政客》的维多利亚·吉拉。

Victoria Guilla with Politico.

在您任职期间，美联储的独立性受到了多方面的压力。

During your tenure, Fed independence has come under pressure in a lot of different ways.

由总统

By the

施加的。

president.

我只是想了解一下，从实际角度来看，您认为美联储的独立性来自哪里？

And I just wondering, practically speaking, where do you see Fed independence as coming from?

是法律赋予的吗？

Is it the law?

是国会的政治支持吗？

Is it political support from Congress?

是美联储自身的行动吗？

Is it the actions of the Fed?

到底是什么在维持美联储的独立性？

What sustains Fed independence?

这个问题啊，很大程度上确实是靠法律支撑的，而且我们此前已经诉诸法律，到目前为止都成功守住了美联储的独立性。

Well, it's, you know, it's it's to to a significant extent, it is the law and, you know, we've had to go to court to successfully so far to defend it.

不过法律本身也确实搭建了一套框架，要求美联储在制定货币政策时，完全不考虑政治因素。

But, you know, the the law does create a setting in which the Fed can and is directed to, make monetary policy without consideration of political factors.

所以法律确实是一部分原因，但独立性的支撑远不止于此。

And so so part of it is law, but but it goes beyond that, though.

还有一套长期形成的惯例在起作用。

There's a set of customs.

美联储和行政部门之间、美联储和财政部之间本来就有一条清晰的界限，我们必须遵守、也得一直恪守这些权责边界——哪些是美联储该管的，哪些是财政部该管的，哪些是行政系统里其他部门该负责的，都要分清楚。

There's a there's a boundary line between the Fed and the administration, between the Fed and the Treasury Department, and we need to respect those continue to respect those boundaries about what the Fed is responsible for and what the Treasury is responsible for and what the the rest of the administration's responsible.

所以说，一部分支撑来自法律层面。

So some some of it is legal.

说到底，所有边界的设立都有法律依据，但要维护美联储的独立性，光靠货币政策远远不够。

In fact, it's all legal at the end of the day but there it's it's more than just monetary policy.

我们不会、也一直不愿意动用手里的工具，去实现那些明显超出我们法定职责范围的目标。

We, you know, we don't we don't wanna use our tools to, we haven't wanted to use our tools to achieve goals that are really clearly outside our mandate.

每一届政府都会盯上我们手里的工具，想把它们转作他用，觉得用来实现其他目标再好不过，但要是真这么做了，就等于把美联储拖进政治漩涡里，还卷入财政政策的范畴里，所以我们一直抵制这种做法。

Every administration looks at our tools and thinks that would be good to repurpose those to serve other purposes, but that gets dragged that's dragging us into politics and into fiscal policy, so we've resisted that.

那要不换个角度来问，你觉得美联储的独立性现在还和你刚就任主席时一样稳固吗？如果还保持得不错，原因又是什么呢？

Well, maybe another way of asking it too is, do you think that Fed independence is as strong now as when you became chair, and if so, why?

实话说，我觉得它现在正面临危机。

Look, I think it's at risk.

我之前提过的那些法律层面的冲击，你可以这么理解，现在整个美联储正因这些事件遭到接连不断的抨击。

I mean, I think these these, you know, these legal assaults, if you will, as I mentioned, you know, the institution is being battered over these things.

现在我们不得不通过法院来维护我们的合法权益，这不只是所谓的独立性，核心是要让我们能在不受政治因素干扰的前提下制定货币政策。

We're having to resort to, you know, the courts to enforce our legal, you know, it's not so much independence, it's really the ability to monetary, to make monetary policy without political considerations.

我们讨论的核心就是这件事，我们一直都在为此努力，到目前为止还算顺利，但事情还没结束。

That's what we're talking about, and we've had to do that and we've been successful so far, but that's not over.

所有相关的程序都还没有出最终结果，而这件事真的非常重要。

None of that is concluded yet, and it's, you know, it's really important.

这根本不是为了美联储的员工，也不是为了维护美联储这个机构本身的什么利益。

It's not about people who work at the Fed or the institution.

这件事的核心是，央行必须基于专业分析和理性判断做决策，而不是想着去扶持或是打压任何政治人物，这才是央行存在的意义。

It's about the benefits of a central bank that makes decisions based on analysis and our best thinking, rather than, you know, trying to help or hurt politicians.

能不能做好这两件事，中间是有明确界限的。所有发达的成功经济体，无一例外都给央行设置了极强的保护机制，就是出于这个原因。

It's, you know, that there's there's a bright line between central banks who do one and do the other and successful countries have uniformly successful advanced economy countries have a really strong set of protections around their central bank just for that reason.

所以整件事的核心就是这个。

So that's what it's all about.

我之前在发言里也说过，我有信心美联储会继续依靠严谨的专业分析做决策，不会被政治因素干扰，但这份独立性是我们靠努力争取来的。

I think I am confident as I said in my remarks that the Fed will continue to make its decision based on analysis, rigorous analysis, and not on political considerations, but we've had to fight for it.

我当然希望，我们能走出当前这个阶段，回归到尊重法律、尊重既往惯例的状态，也就是让美联储能自主开展本职工作。

And I'd, you know, I'd like to think that, you know, I'd like to think we can get out of that era and go back to respecting, you know, what the law says and what custom has been, which is to, you know, let the Fed do our thing.

美联储里的所有人都在拼尽全力把事做好，一切都是为了公众的利益。

We're, you know, we're not, we're, it's an institution full of human beings who work super hard to get things right for the benefit of the public.

我们都是普通人。

We're all human.

别要求我们事事都做到完美。

Don't expect for perfection.

但你们应该期待我们做出决策时，完全不考虑政治因素，只依靠我们所能提供的最严谨的分析。

But do expect us to make, you know, decisions without political considerations and the very best analysis we can bring.

卡捷琳娜。

Katerina.

卡特琳娜·萨拉伊瓦，彭博社。

Katarina Sarayva, Bloomberg News.

对于您决定留任这件事，您怎么评价同事们的意见？

How would you characterize, what you've heard from your colleagues on your decision to stay?

他们支持您吗？

Do you have their support?

您有没有听到同事们对来自行政部门持续法律攻击的担忧？

And then have you heard concern from your colleagues, about continued legal attacks from, the executive branch?

其他人有没有跟您聊过这件事？

Is this something that others have, you know, talked to you about?

我觉得我不适合去透露同事们的想法。

So I think that I don't want to report on what my colleagues think.

他们自己会说明立场。

They can speak for themselves.

不过，确实有很多人担心这些问题还会继续下去。

But, you know, yeah, there are widespread concerns that these things may continue.

我就说这么多。

That's all I'll say.

而且，这确实会是个问题。

And, you know, and that would be a problem.

所以……

And so

另外，我还想问问关于沃勒州长关于储备银行的讲话。

And then I just also wanted to ask about, governor Waller's speech on the reserve banks.

对于他提出的将部分职能集中起来的做法，您怎么看？

What you know, do you have any thoughts on on centralizing some of those functions in the way he described?

您是否担心，这种做法可能会导致储备银行的职能进一步集中，最终让央行失去那些重要的区域信息？

And then have you know, do you are you concerned that something like that could potentially be a slippery slope to, you know, to consolidate reserve bank functions even more in such a way where you, you know, the central bank ultimately loses some of that important regional information?

所以

So

我们努力管好纳税人的钱，做到高效运作。

we try to be good stewards of the public's money and efficient.

尤其是克里斯，克里斯·沃勒对这一点特别上心。

And Chris in particular, Chris Waller is particularly passionate about that.

当然，各地区储备银行的行长们也都是这么想的，对吧？

Of course, so are the reserve, so are the president's, and President?

关键在于，你怎么看这个问题，

You know, it's a question of how do you How

我怎么知道呢？

do I know?

推动一下吧。

Push it.

我们当然希望有十二家强大且独立的地区央行，各自有团队、有自己的货币政策观点，这些都是我们想要的。

We, of course, and and Chris said this in his speech, we, you know, we want 12 strong independent central banks with their own staffs and their own monetary policy views and all that.

刚好说到点子上了。

It hit.

我现在就去兑现这个想法。

I'm cashing out right now.

你看，目前这12家分行都在做的一些工作，其实集中到一个地方来做效率会高很多，还能节省成本。

You know, there are things that are done in all 12, which could well be done at one much more efficiently than with cost savings.

所以最后肯定能皆大欢喜，布莱恩。

And so Winners, Brian.

克雷，我们是赢家。

Winners, Clay.

在这件事上，所有人的立场都是一致的。

On that, but everybody everybody's on the same page.

你刚才还提到了另一个说法，就是有人想因为各地区储备银行行长的货币政策立场不同就把他们撤职。我完全同意克里斯的看法，这么做的话，美联储独立制定货币政策的能力就会开始走向消亡。

The other thing you touched on was was the idea of removing reserve bank presidents from office over different different views on monetary policy and I would I would just agree with him so strongly that that would be the beginning of the end of of the Fed's ability to to make monetary policy independently.

要是每一届新政府上台都能这么干，那美联储到时候就和普通的内阁部门没什么区别了。

If every administration could come in and do that, you're you're just another cabinet agency at that point.

所以，我不支持这种做法。

So, that's not something that I would support.

克里斯也说了同样的话。

Chris said the same thing.

克里斯汀。

Christine.

谢谢，鲍威尔主席。

Thanks, Chair Powell.

我是NBC新闻的克里斯汀·罗曼斯。

Christine Romans, NBC News.

我想问一下关于遗产的问题。

I wanna ask about legacy.

等历史书写到这段时，你觉得你过去八年在美联储的作为会被如何评价？

When the history books are written, how do you think your stewardship at the Fed will be remembered for the past eight years?

这个比喻不对。

Wrong analogy.

这种话不该由我来说，得让别人去讲。

Just say that, that's for that's for someone else to say.

这个我就不跟你计较了。

I'll give you a mulligan on that.

好吧。

Alright.

我想问你，如果朱德说他不评论，那你怎么看？

I'm gonna ask you about if Jude said no comments.

关于通胀的表现。

Behaving inflation then.

你之前提到过去五年那四大冲击，都是供给方面的冲击，但通胀还是没稳住。

You talked about those four big shocks, supply shocks over the past five years, and in inflation still misbehaving.

对于那些觉得自疫情后经济重启以来，通胀一直没得到控制的美国家庭，你有什么想对他们说的？

What's your message to American families who feel like inflation has not been under control for them really since since the COVID reopening?

要把通胀压下来，得把通胀控制住

That locking good inflation to bring inflation

回落至2%的水平，而且要稳定维持住这个数值。

back down to 2% and and sustainably.

这就是我们的目标，我们一定会坚持到底，直到实现这个目标。

That's that's our goal, and we will we'll stick at it until that happens.

各种突发事件接连不断，不断推高各类成本。而我们能做的最重要的事，就是动用我们的政策工具把通胀率拉回2%的水平。

We keep getting these events keep happening which keep driving up costs, and, you know, the best thing we can do is to use our tools to guide inflation back down to 2%.

我认为如果操之过急地想要实现这个目标，会付出很高的代价，比如会出现大量失业这类问题。所以我们会逐步推进，尽可能把负面影响降到最低。我们在这件事上的承诺永远不会动摇，也绝不动摇。

I think trying to get there really quickly could be very costly in terms of of job loss and things like that, but we try to get there over time in a way that does the least damage possible, and, you know, our commitment to that is never ending and unshakable.

除了还没回归正轨的通胀问题，你会怎么形容当下的经济状况？

How would you describe the economy outside of the misbehaving inflation?

我是说，即便遭遇了这么多冲击，它的韧性还是特别强。

I mean, it's still awfully resilient given all of the blows.

通胀本身的韧性也很强，所以我得说整体经济的韧性确实很不错，要是修正一下刚才的说法的话，这其实是件好事。

Inflation can be awfully resilient, so it's actually quite resilient I would say because it's a positive thing if I have that amendment.

对的，你也知道咱们整个经济体的增长势头都非常稳健。

Yeah, you know growth is really solid across our economy.