模因币狂潮：罗宾汉的模因币夏季来临，涨幅高达700%

所以这算是个利好的消息。

So it's it's a piece of bullish news here.

我们得看看后续怎么发展，但他们确实在持续建设。

We'll see how it continues to develop, but they're still building.

他们还在积极推动监管，而这正是我们迫切需要的。

They're still pushing for regulation and something that we really need.

我知道，永续合约平台其实特别有意思。

I have, you know, the the perps platforms are really interesting.

像Hyperliquid，我们都清楚，我对它非常看好，我自己也持有一部分代币，而且他们总部在海外，我总是会想到这一点。

I'm I'm pretty bullish on Hyperliquid, as we all know, and I I have a fair share of the token, and, then they they are overseas, you know, and I always think about that.

我记得他们是在新加坡，不过我得确认一下，但总之是在海外。

I think they're based in Singapore, if, I need to fact check that, but they are overseas.

另一个表现特别亮眼的永续合约平台是Lighter或者Lit，我上周一、二或三的时候还跟我们的社群聊过这事。

But another another perf platform that's absolutely been popping off has been lighter or lit, and it was like, I think as of like Monday or Tuesday or Wednesday, I was talking about with our community.

我当时就说，天啊，这公司市值才六亿美元。

I was like, man, this is only a $600,000,000 market cap.

它表现得非常出色，而且是个正经的永续合约平台，还和罗宾汉整合了。

It's been doing really well, but it's an actual perps platform, and they integrated with Robin Hood.

罗宾汉和Lighter。

Robin Hood and, Lighter.

我当时就想，这说不定也是个值得留意的机会，毕竟他们总部在美国。

And I was like, Man, maybe that's maybe that's an interesting play as well, eventually, because they're based in The United States.

我这会儿简直把所有永续合约平台都倒豆子一样全说出来了，但说实话，加密领域尤其是永续合约和这类去中心化平台，真的急需明确的监管。

So we're just kinda just I'm just kinda, like, verbally vomiting on everyone with these Perps platforms, but we need clear regulation for a lot of things within crypto, especially Perps and decentralized, platforms like this.

虽然如此，Hyperliquid的那些亮点依然让我特别感兴趣。

So it's good to see, but kind of the Hyperliquid delighters are still really interesting to me.

说得太对了。

Great point.

我这笔记里没写这条，我查一下。

I didn't have this on the sheet, I want to pull it up.

Circle。

Circle.

Circle这家稳定币公司，因为货币监理署批准其作为银行运营，股价上涨了15%。

Circle, the stablecoin company and publicly traded stock up 15% after the comptroller of the currency grants the company approval to operate as a bank.

这真是个挺有意思的消息。

So really interesting news.

对Circle来说，显然是个超级利好的消息。

Obviously, super bullish news for Circle.

我知道Coinbase在稳定币业务上也投了不少钱在Circle身上。

I know Coinbase has a lot invested in Circle as well for stablecoin use and all that.

但我觉得这事挺耐人寻味的，它其实也延续了Hyperliquid那件事的逻辑——加密公司纷纷申请牌照，有的拿到了，有的没拿到，整个行业都在等一个明确的监管框架，可现在连个基本的规则都定不下来。

But I find this interesting, it's kind of building off the Hyperliquid news too of these crypto companies are asking for grants, they're getting grants, and it's like all this is going on where like it feels like it would just be great to get the Clarity Act passed, because you know, it's kind of the rules of the road that everybody's looking for and these individual companies are, some are getting them, some are not, and there's just no blanket rules for the road.

这算不算特殊待遇？还是说他们只是把材料准备得特别到位？我也说不准。

But it's, I guess, I don't know if you call it special treatment or they're doing the right paperwork, but I don't know.

总觉得哪里不太对劲，一边是零星的批准不断出现，另一边却迟迟推不出《清晰法案》，市场情绪也跟着摇摆，我也不好说是不是‘崩了’，但最近一个月确实跌了3%，尤其是过去一周。

There's just something feels off when there's, you know, some grants going on the side and we can't figure out this Clarity Act thing is the odds just kind of continue to, to I don't know if the words tank, but it's certainly down, especially over the last, you know, week 3% down over the last month.

你想想，之前一度冲到54，现在又跌回去了，从涨5%到跌10%，短短两周就来了个15%的大起大落。

I mean, you know, at one point it was 54 and down there, so it was up 5% now down 10, that's a 15% swing over the last, you know, two weeks.

所以，接下来的日期大概是八月中旬或者八月初。

So getting, you know, I think the next date was like middle August or early August.

如果那时候还没通过，国会就进入休会期，接着进入中期选举周期，想通过就更难了。

And then if it doesn't get done there, then there's the recess and then you're heading into just the midterm cycle and it's going to be hard to get down.

我觉得关键在于，特朗普家族能不能继续做他们的加密业务，民主党现在不想投赞成票，尤其是快到选举季了。不过，布莱恩，你对这个清晰法案有什么看法？

I guess the sticking point is, you know, the rules of, you know, what the Trump family being able to do all their crypto businesses like, so the Democrats don't want to vote for that right now, especially going into election season, but any thoughts on the Clarity Act, Brian?

是的，我对这个该死的清晰法案有太多想法了。

Yeah, I got a lot of thoughts on this damn Clarity Act, man.

这法案三个月前就该通过了。

It should have been passed like three months ago.

本来就应该这么办。

That's what should have happened.

8月7号是最后期限。

August 7 is the date.

如果到8月7号还没通过，参议员们就要休会了，那清晰法案想在2026年落地就悬了。

If it doesn't happen by August 7, Senators go on recess and, we're getting we're we're in a lot of trouble for the Clarity Act happening in 2026.

我记得下周应该会出个草案。

So I think a draft comes out next week if I remember correctly.

这倒挺值得一看的。

So that'll be interesting to see.

伦理问题主要在于特朗普家族靠加密货币赚了几十亿美元。

The ethics side of it was like the Trump family making like billions of dollars in crypto.

民主党当然不乐意看到这个。

Obviously the Dems don't like that.

这个我理解。

You know, I, I get that.

完全同意。

Absolutely.

我知道大家都有不同看法，但从整个市场角度来说，我真心希望2026年能把《清晰法案》推下来，38%的支持率已经不错了。

I'm to like, you know, everyone's thoughts there, but the Clarity Act just from an overall market, I really wanna see done in 2026, 38%.

然后我们还有Coinbase的首席法务官。

And then we had, the chief legal officer of Coinbase.

他辞职了，但之前在推动Coinbase的监管政策方面起了关键作用，我们在《清晰法案》上也有很强的发言权。

He stepped down and, and he's he was a big part of like just pushing a lot of regulation, for Coinbase, and we had a pretty strong hand with the Clarity Act.

我记得那个公告出来的时候，概率从45%掉到40%，降幅不算大，我觉得影响没那么关键，但时间真的太紧了。

And I think that's whenever that announcement happened I checked the odds they went from like 45 to 40 so not a not a huge movement down I don't think it really matters all that much but man time's tight dude.

我们之前一直听说，有人希望能在7月4日前把这事敲定。

I mean like we were hearing people talk about what they wanted to have this pretty much in place by July 4.

现在都7月10号了，概率还在往下掉，而8月7号是个关键节点。

It's July 10 right now and the odds just keep falling and, August 7 is a huge date.

你这是逼我表态啊。

Man, you gun to my head.

我觉得2026年通过《清晰法案》的可能性不大了。

Probably not feeling great about the Clarity Act in 2026.

但我真不好说，现在就像抛硬币一样，不过我以前可是个特别看好这事的人。

But I can't say I mean, I'm at a coin flip here, but I felt real This is coming from a permeable who was really bullish about this months ago.

那时候我们都觉得这事肯定能成。

Was like, We're gonna get this done.

现在我觉得这事儿真就是五五开。

Now I feel like it's truly a coin flip.

我就希望这些参议员们赶紧动起来。

I I I just I just need these senators to get off their butt.

赶紧把东西签了。

Just start inking some stuff.

用拜登那种电子笔签一下就行。

You know, use that electronic pen that Biden uses.

没人会知道的。

Nobody will know.

是啊。

Yeah.

这经历真够跌宕的。

What a ride.

这经历真够跌宕的。

What a ride.

我记得这里有个小下坡。

Remember, I remember this little downslope here.

当时我们正在直播。

We were live on air.

跌到了39%。

It went down to 39%.

你看着呢，我就说，哎，趁这机会入手一点。

You were watching and I was like, oh, nibble in this.

我确实买了。

I did.

一月份我特别看好39%的时候，结果几周后一路涨到了79%。

I loved it at thirty nine back in January, and it went all the way up a couple weeks later all the way to 79%.

现在都到80%了，老兄。

We're at 80%, man.

你看，我那时候就特别看好。

See, I loved it.

我真的很喜欢。

I loved it.

一月二十九号。

January 29.

我当时在百分之三十九的时候就特别看好。

I loved it at 39%.

我得说一句。

I'll say this.

没错。

Yeah.

七月十号，百分之三千九百三十八。

July 10 at 3938%.

我倒不一定觉得它值得喜欢。

I don't I don't necessarily love it.

我同意你的看法。

I'm with you.

这感觉就像抛硬币一样，我真的说不准，老兄。

I just feels feels like a coin flip and I don't know dude.

这可能还带着点加密货币的偏见，你看，它都说这是抛硬币了。

It feels like that might even be like a little crypto bias you know because it's even saying it's a flips.

那种说法是说，这其实是一种抛硬币的比喻。

That's the permeable say that's one of the permeable saying it's a coin flip.

所以这可能是个做了手脚的硬币，总是一面朝上更多。

So that might be a that might be a fixed coin where it lands on one side hold up more than the other.

伦理上的阻碍是个大问题，得有人跨党派合作，民主党那边也得支持才行，这肯定会拖后腿。

The ethics hold up is a is serious serious thing that you need some people to come across the aisle and Democrats to join and that's going to be a hold up there.

我们得继续关注，等快到八月的时候再看情况。

So we'll keep tracking it as we get closer to that August date.

就像布莱恩说的，我们现在盯着八月，看看之后会发生什么。

Like Brian said, it looks like we're looking for August and see what happens from there.

不过说实话，前景不太乐观，但我也看到一些观点说，其实我们可能根本不需要它，毕竟之前那种迫切的需求，可能也没那么大。

But yeah, it's not not looking too good, but I I I've also seen some takes of like, hey, we don't we don't need it maybe, you know, it's like there was all this pent up need for it.

这事儿要是能成当然好，但你知道，这种事只要大家都知道会不会发生，它就等着一个明确的结果出来。

And it would be again, it would be nice to have, but you know, it's one of those things where if everybody knows it's going to happen or not going to happen, it's an event that needs to clear.

得先等这事尘埃落定，我们才能好好消化，接着往前看。

We need the clearing of the event and then, you know, we can digest it and move on from there.

至于比特币的价值走向，最近讨论可真不少。

But Bitcoin as in value territory seems to be a lot of discussion going on.

咱们是不是快见到底了？

Are we showing signs of a bottom?

Brian，你今天带了什么新观点给我们？

So what did you bring for us here, Brian?

对。

Yeah.

我就是觉得这事儿值得写上，我完全同意。

I just I just put that on the sheet because I agree.

我早就说了好几个月了。

I it does I've been saying it for months now.

我早就用过‘震荡’和‘反复震荡’这个词了。

Everyone's I've said the word chop and choppy for so long.

我们之前几个月开活动时，所有分析师聚在一起，那时候就感觉市场一直在这个区间里来回拉锯，现在回头看，这感觉才对——我们现在正处于熊市的深水区，正经历一个四年周期，我原本以为这个反转不会来，结果它完全按计划上演了，我现在也慢慢接受了。

And, we've talked about when we were all together, all the analysts were together at this, one of our events a few months about, a month ago, just it did feel like we were just chopping in this range here, and it feels feels feels really like where we should be, you know, we're we're the depths of a bear market right now, We're following a four year cycle that I thought wasn't gonna happen this turnaround is going just at to plan, and now I'm starting to just embrace it.

既然我接受了这个四年周期的逻辑，接受了这种震荡就是常态，那我就觉得，现在——当然不是投资建议——可能是入手比特币的好时机。

And if I'm embracing the four year cycle, if I'm embracing that thesis, and I'm expecting a chop like this is happening, then I'm expecting that this is probably a hell of a good time, not financial advice, to get in on Bitcoin.

我就是有这种感觉，因为我们经历的实在太多了。

It just feels that way to me because we've had a lot.

关税、战争、油价现在比狗和帽子还波动。

We've had tariffs, we've had wars, we've had, just oil trading more volatile than dog and hood right now.

各种大事接连不断，但比特币却稳稳地在这个区间里不动。

I mean, there's just been so much going on, and Bitcoin is kind of steady in this range.

我们已经经历了熊市里那种正常的回调。

We've had that healthy pullback that we have in every bear market.

如果再来一次彻底的出清，我也不觉得意外。

I I wouldn't be surprised if we have one more flush out.

我不会觉得意外，但我也能接受。

I I wouldn't be shocked by it, but I'm okay with that.

我觉得这样挺好。

I would be okay.

我个人的投资策略，每次做复盘的时候都会提到，我一直在慢慢加仓。

My own my own personal investing, I've been I've been I We talk about it every time on this rundown.

我最近稍微多买了一点。

Hey, I'm nibbling a little bit more.

我越来越频繁地在加仓，因为我觉得夏天正是该慢慢买入的时候。

I I've been nibbling more and more and more because I think I think it's time to nibble during the summer.

现在没人盯着屏幕了。

Nobody's on their screens.

现在所有的银行家都在汉普顿度假。

All the bankers are in the Hamptons right now.

他们这时候都不做周五的复盘节目了。

They're not doing Friday rundown shows.

他们的灯都关了。

Their lights off.

他们可能会彻底断电。

They're gonna lose their lights off.

我们在这儿，感觉就是这么回事。

We're here, and it just feels like it feels like that.

所以我觉得我得提前布局，赶在趋势前面。

So it feels like I wanna kinda get ahead of the movement.

我觉得如果四年周期没错——我现在又开始深信不疑了——那这波上涨很可能发生在九月、十月，我想提前做好准备。

And I think the movement to the upswing is gonna probably, if the four year cycle is correct, which I'm starting to be a big believer of again, it's gonna probably be like September, October, and, I want to be positioned for it.

每当我看到类似的文章，正好印证了我的想法，我就忍不住想分享，因为感觉这正好处在价值区间。

And then whenever I see an article come out like this, kind of endorsing exactly what I'm thinking, I have to share it because it feels like it's in the value zone.

我觉得这篇文章里也说了，现在还没出现底部信号，等于在暗示：可能还会再来一次恐慌性抛售。但我并不在意，因为在我看来，最终还是会涨回去的。

I think even in this article, they said there's no bottom signal yet, so they're kinda even indicating, like, hey, we could have one more flash crap flush out, but I'm okay with that because, you know, it's gonna go back in my opinion.

对。

Yeah.

你知道，交易量这块，波动率交易量，再加上那种漫长又无聊的盘整，这种情形我们以前见过，真的见过很多次了。

There's, you know, the trade amount, get the volatility trade amount, and then there's worry out just with, you know, a long boring range, which, know, we've seen, we've seen before, we've seen before.

所以没错，我们之前和布伦丹也聊过这个，长期持有者在实际亏损方面，每当这个指标开始飙升，从2018年那时候起，我们就看到过一些底部，数据还挺有参考价值的。

So yeah, we talked about this with Brendan just like, you know, long term holders real in the realized losses, you know, when this starts spiking up traditionally all the way back to you know, '18 here, you've seen you've seen some bottoms here with some decent, statistics there.

我们看看。

Let's see.

再看看。

Let's see.

还有别的吗？

What else do we got?

还有别的信息吗？

Anything else?

这些图表里，有没有哪个是你觉得特别有意思的？

Any one of these charts that you liked?

说实话，我这还是第一次这么仔细地看这些图。

I'm looking at them maybe one for one of the first times in-depth to be completely honest with you.

这些看起来都不错。

They all look good.

他们指的也是这一个

They're calling that same one

我一向喜欢的那个。

that I always like.

我关注的是长期持有或已实现亏损的数据。

I went in the long term hold or realized loss.

这是一次集中出清。

It's a it's a flush out.

你可以看到这些峰值，没错。

So you can see these spikes or Yeah.

出清之后，大家就说：好了，我退出了。

Gets flushed out and say, alright, I'm done.

我这就走了。

I'm out here.

这波动太大了，我受不了。

This is too volatile, too much for me.

所以我们确实碰到了第一个高点。

So we we definitely hit the first spike here.

你这里第二个高点。

Your second spike here.

这当然不是绝对的，但市场就是在逼那些扛不住的人离场。

Again, that is obviously isn't a guarantee, but it's it's the market's making, you know, weak hands.

它推动了人们因为各种原因换手——要么说‘我不玩了’，要么觉得‘这价格不错’。

It's making the change of hands of people exchanging here for different reasons of I'm done or oh, I like this price.

我觉得这时候进场买的人不少，这里换手很活跃。

I would like to buy here is a lot of rotation there.

这样挺好。

So that's good.

能看到这样的数据，确实有助于长期建立你的判断。

It's good to see stats like that again to help build your thesis long term if you will.

我们来看看，范艾克这边出了几份看涨报告。

Let's see, got some bullish calls from Van Eck.

范艾克说，比特币到2028年会突破历史高点。

Van Eck saying Bitcoin will beat its all time high by 2028.

这时间跨度可真够长的。

So that's that's pretty it's pretty long timeline.

对范艾克来说，这算是个比较稳妥的预测，我倒不反感，但他们还提到，现在有22个国家在挖矿或持有比特币。

It's a nice little safer bet for Van Eck, which I don't hate, but saying the 22 countries now are mining or holding Bitcoin.

之前Coinbase的约翰·达戈斯蒂诺在周二那期节目里聊过，幕后其实有不少国家悄悄在考虑持有或买入比特币，只是没怎么上新闻。

We had coin bases, John Dagostino on that episodes coming out Tuesday talking about how, know, behind the scenes in coin bases, a lot of nation states that isn't getting a ton of news are talking about holding Bitcoin or buying Bitcoin if they haven't yet.

白宫那边还在继续放风。

And then the White House continues to tease.

这事儿我们已经提过太多次了。

We've beaten that horse so many times.

现在得看实际行动了，就像我们刚才那张图显示的，卖方力量快耗尽了。

Like it's a that's a show me story now and kind of like we just showed on that last chart seller exhaustion building.

是的

Yeah,

我的意思是

I mean

说吧

Go

你接着说。

ahead, dude.

我刚想说，我明白

I was just saying, I get

所有这些数据都在说明一件事：你得自己形成观点，要么站这边，要么站那边。但你知道，当价格高的时候，两边都容易站，可现在感觉市场已经被打压得够呛，交易的激情早就被耗尽了，现在纯粹是熬着的阶段。

All those stats just build towards, you got to make your own story, know, you got to be on one side of the boat or the other, but you know, when price is high, it's easier to go on either side and it just feels like right now, it's just been been beaten down, and it's the the the trade you out just kind of happened to a point, and it's definitely the wear you out stage.

你记得那次10月10号的爆仓吗？就是我们之前聊过的那次10月10号大清算。

I mean, do you remember like the 10/10 liquidation, the 10/10 liquidate remember we're talking about 10.

再过不久就满一年了。

We're coming up on almost a year of that.

现在都七月了，你知道吧。

You know, we're in July right now.

我们离那个时间只剩三个月了。

We're three months away.

说真的，感觉那事儿好像已经过去好久了，可又觉得没多久。

I mean, that feels like that feels like forever ago, but it also doesn't.

之前我看到Banec——那家特别保守的机构——说我们可能到2028年才能创新高，但我认为会早得多。

So whenever I saw, like, Banec, which is a very conservative firm, saying that we'll probably get to an all time high by 2028, I think we get there sooner.

我觉得这观点挺看涨的，他们确实有些道理，尤其是卖方疲软这一点。

I think it's a pretty bullish take and they make some good points there and seller exhaustion's the biggest one.

咱们现在就是要把剩下的人全洗出去，如果你还在这儿，还坚持看直播，我真得给你磕一个。

You know, just like, we're gonna rinse all the people out and the people, if you're still here, if you're still tuning in, freaking hats off to you, man.

等我们冲上新高那天，我一定要给聊天室里的每个人订一份水果礼盒，因为这事儿是我们一起干成的。

I need to buy everybody in our chat a freaking edible arrangement or something when we go to the all time high because because we're making it happen together.

这事肯定会发生，只是时间早晚的问题。

And it's gonna happen, it's just when it happens.

我越来越信服四年周期这一说了。

And and I'm starting to I'm starting to just kind of I'm drinking the kool aid of the four year cycle.

我开始相信，就在明年十月，距离那场十万亿清算过去一年，市场就会真正启动。

I'm drinking the kool aid that this October, a year from the ten ten liquidations, we're gonna start picking up steam.

我今天和明天买的这些，到2027年回头看都会觉得值，就算2028年才冲上新高我也认了——因为那意味着行情会爆到炸裂，说不定到那时我们反而都站错队了。

The buys that I made today, the buys I make tomorrow are gonna start looking really good in 2027, and I'm okay with an all time high in 2028 because that means we are just absolutely face melting, and we might all be on the wrong side of the boat then too, you know?

到时候我们可能都戴着派对帽，录着复盘视频，说：‘天啊，比特币涨到20万、25万，甚至30万，谁能想到呢？’

We might be having rundown shows with all of us with party hats on saying like, wow, Bitcoin to $202.50, 300, who knows?

这事儿真让人兴奋，我感觉卖家确实快撑不住了。

So it's exciting, and I just feel like the seller exhaustion feels real.

目前链上的流动性已经很低了。

I mean, the liquidity is low on chain right now.

大家彼此都盯着对方，谁也不动，但外面的消息和动向其实一点没少。

We're all kind of just like looking at each other, but there's still a lot of news out there, lot of movement happening.

一旦开关被打开，行情会猛地冲上来。

So when they flip the on switch on, it's gonna come on pretty hard.

这个水龙头一开，我就真信了2027年，特别是十月，我就押这儿了。

That faucet's gonna run and I'm just kind of believing 2027 now, like October, I'm calling it.

我觉得十月才是真正的高潮，咱们的持仓会一下子火起来。

I think October is like when the excitement really starts pumping our bags.

不过谁知道呢？

But who knows?

说不定弗拉德发条推文，咱们就能迎来一个小红包季，先撑一阵子。

Maybe Vlad tweets out something sweet, and we get we get just, we get a little, Robin Hood summer to hold us over.

那可太好了。

That would be great.

说实话，那确实再好不过了。

You know, it would also be great.

在聊天区打个招呼吧。

Shout out in the chat.

我刚在聊天区看到了。

I I saw, I saw in the chat.

不好意思。

Excuse me.

我看到聊天里Grant提到，我们团队用的一个工具——你们要是熟悉这个社群，应该听过Bryce讲过，就是我们的山寨币提醒工具。

I saw Grant, big grants in in the chat saying, Tivo, we we saw one of our one of our tools that our team uses, I'm sure you've heard Bryce talk about it, if you're inside the community, is is our altcoin alert tool.

结果我看到那个山寨币提醒工具给‘没人香肠’发了个看涨信号。

And I I got a I got a I saw something that the altcoin alert gave a bullish signal for nobody sausage.

不错。

Great.

我知道Grant是节目的老朋友，他之前和我们一起炒过‘没人香肠’，Brian也参与了，虽然价格上没涨起来，但那个梗确实太搞笑了。不过我们的工具给出看涨信号，你也得明白，这只能作为研究的一小部分。

I know Grant Grant Grant friend of the show, of course, road nobody sausage with us, Brian, and not, you know, obviously that that didn't quite pan out price wise even though the meme was quite hilarious, but bullish signals for nobody sausage from from one of our tools, but you gotta you gotta take that, you know, as one part of your research.

所以我们可能得去‘没人香肠’的推特上看看，有没有什么看涨的迹象。

So we might have to go dive in to the nobody sausage Twitter, see if there's any bullish signs there.

太棒了。

Epic time.

你看，事情有时候会突然冷下来，但也能马上热起来。

As you can see, how things could run dry pretty quickly, but they can come back just as quick.

我虽然没买Nobody Sausage，但今天收到提醒的时候，我也看到了那条推文。

So, I don't have a nobody sausage, but I was on the same tweet or, text message when we got that alert today.

说实话。

Not gonna lie.

我确实有点想买一点Nobody Sausage，因为它让我想起小时候闻到麦当劳开心乐园餐的味道。

Kind of thought a little bit about picking up a little Nobody Sausage bag just because it kind of brings nostalgic It's vibes to like when I smell a McDonald's Happy Meal, you know?

味道是不错，但主要是因为那是你小时候的回忆，对吧？

It tastes delicious, but it's just because, like, you grew up on it, you know?

我就是觉得心里缺了点什么。

There's something I need.

不过还是给Nobody Sausage点个赞。

But, well, shout out to nobody sausage, man.

这事儿不怪他。

It's, it wasn't his fault.

他已经尽力了。

He did everything he could.

他在TikTok上简直就是个传奇人物，一个人撑起了全场。

He was just an epic character on TikTok just running the show.

没错。

Facts.

确实如此。

Facts.

我还有一个要说。

Let's do I got one more.

我们来聊聊怎么构建我们的观点。

We'll do, we're talking kind of how we're building our our thesis.

当然，你得自己做研究，形成自己的判断。

And again, you got do your own research, make your own thesis.

但你知道吗，这个恐惧贪婪指数，我们已经在一个多月里都处在恐惧区间，上个月甚至到了极度恐惧的水平，一直在这种环境下交易。

But you know, this fear greed index, we've been in fear for a month, even kissing extreme fear last month and just trading in this grinding.

我们把这种在恐惧情绪中坚持交易的状态叫做‘磨’。

We call that grinding in these fear levels.

我们之前确实有过一次大涨，那是什么时候来着？

We did have that pump here back in, what was that?

四月中旬那次，让我们从恐惧中走出来，但马上又跌回了极度恐惧的区间。

April, mid April, which got us out of fear and then we went right back down to extreme fear.

所以这就是我们说的，交易把你拉出来，再把你磨垮。

So it it is that trade we said, trade you out, wear you out.

现在的感觉就是，我们又回到了那个区间——就像我们刚才总结时说的，现在就是在慢慢试探。

It just feels like we're in that zone, which again, like we we both said at the summary is like, this is where we're nibbling.

根本谈不上全仓押注。

Like, there's no full port all in.

你得持续关注信息，毕竟除了加密货币本身，还有很多宏观因素会影响走势。

You got to keep getting the information and there's obviously many macro factors that can swing things either way besides just crypto specific.

不过说实话，我每周还是照常自动买入，感觉挺好的，就不去多想，该干嘛干嘛。

So but it feels yeah, I got I still have my automatic buys on each each week and it feels fine for me just not thinking about it, getting some stuff done.

咱们今天周五，就用个轻松的话题收尾吧。

But let's let's wrap up our Friday on a fun note.

我想听听你的看法，因为说实话，世界杯这些比赛实在太精彩了。

I wanted to get your take on this because I basically, you know, the the World Cup, these games have been so great.

对吧？

Right?

这些比赛简直不可思议，整个赛事也充满了许多令人惊叹的高光时刻。

These games have been unbelievable And the tournament itself has been unbelievable with just some, you know, awesome moments.

作为一个体育迷，我得说，我平时其实不算特别关注足球，但这次真的被吸引了。

Like as a sports fan, I kinda said this as a hand up, not a huge full time soccer or football guy, if you will.

而且美国队表现亮眼，一路赢到了淘汰赛阶段。

But the the tournament itself took me in and then, you know, The USA team USA is winning.

我们成功晋级了淘汰赛。

We're going to knockout stage for a win.

感觉整个国家都在关注，大家都把最后一场美国队的比赛当成了必看的电视节目。

It felt like the whole country was getting on board, and everybody made that last USA game appointment television.

真的就是这种感觉。

It feel it felt like it.

就连平时不太看体育的人，也都把这场比赛当成了必须守着看的节目。

It felt like appointment television for even the casual sports fan, for even maybe the people that aren't big sports fans.

于是我们都安排好了，准时守在电视前。

And so we all make our appointment television.

我们出门了。

We head out.

跑到坦帕湾码头区最棒的体育酒吧，挑了最好的位置坐下。

We go get, you know, the the best table at the best sports bar on the dock Lower Deck down in Tampa.

大家伙儿都准备好了。

We get the boys ready.

我们吵吵闹闹的，气氛拉满。

We're rowdy.

我们正等着开场呢。

We're getting ready.

结果美国队一上场，就踢得一塌糊涂，布莱恩。

And the USA soccer team goes out and lays an absolute egg, Brian.

表现得一塌糊涂。

Lays an absolute egg.

我知道你当时看了比赛。

And I know you tuned in.

所以我得提这个问题，现在结果出来了。

So I had to pose the question and we have the results.

我们想公布最终结果，但也想听听你的看法。

So we wanted to give the results, final results, but we need your opinion as well.

如果美国足球队是一支加密货币，它会是比特币、以太坊、莱特币，还是FTX代币？

If the US soccer team was a crypto, would they be Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, or the FTX token?

哦，原来你之前说的是这个。

Oh, this is what you're talking about before.

没有。

No.

我没看到那条推文，现在后悔死了，但天啊，FTX代币跌得简直一塌糊涂，我在比利时那会儿还看错了，真是被忽悠了。

I didn't see this tweet and I hate myself for not seeing it, but, oh man, FTX tokens taking a taking a I mean, I can't I mean, they look like crap in that Belgium I was on the wrong I was drinking the Kool Aid, man.

我可是把美国足球队当成永久冠军来押注的。

I was the Perma Bowl for the US soccer team.

那个预测市场把我下注的钱给吞了。

I the prediction market stole my money from that bet.

他们输了多少？

What they lose?

四比一左右吧。

Four one or something.

所以，选FTX代币来代表美国足球队的，是你吗？你投了哪一票？

So FTX token is one of you for calling the US soccer, Did you vote?

是的。

Yeah.

在聊天区告诉我们吧。

Let us know in the chat.

如果你还在聊天区，赶紧留言说说你投了哪一票。

If you're if you're still here in the chat, let us know in the chat what your vote is.

在X平台上坚持加密货币入门知识的那群人，有47.8%投票说FTX代币是诈骗。

The Crypto one zero one faithful on X voted for FTX token, dubbing them a fraud at 47.8%.

这就是翻译结果。

That's the translation.

FTX代币就是诈骗。

FTX token is is fraud fraudulent.

我个人真不知道谁投了比特币。

I personally, I I don't know who voted for Bitcoin.

咱们得找那些投了以太坊的人聊聊。

We gotta talk to them or or Ethereum.

他们说以太坊至少还有点实际用途。

For Ethereum saying that like, hey, there was a little utility there.

怎么说呢，他们确实赢过几场，但说实话，我也说不准。

Like they got, you know, they got, like, I won a couple games, but I don't know, man.

这事对我来说真挺难下定论的。

It's a hard, hard case for me on that.

我选了莱特币。

I went with Litecoin.

我 personally 投了莱特币。

I thought, I I went I personally voted Litecoin.

在你告诉我你的选择和理由之前，我投莱特币是因为它曾经辉煌过，让我真有感觉。

And before you tell us your vote and why, I voted for I put Litecoin because at one point it did a lot and it made me feel something.

但从那以后，它再也没起来过，估计以后也不会了。

And then since then it hasn't and it never probably will again.

所以我才投了莱特币。

That's why I voted for Litecoin.

你最后的结论是什么？

What's your final, final take?

听你讲完对莱特币的看法，我完全有同感。

Just hearing your thesis behind Litecoin, that's exactly how I felt.

我本来想投FTX，但你说得对。

I wanted to vote FTX, but no, you're right.

它们让我有了感觉。

They made me feel something.

它们让我觉得莱特币就像是比特币的小兄弟。

They made me feel like Litecoin was the little brother Bitcoin.

更快、更迅捷、闪电速度，查理·李特别喜欢，诸如此类的话。

Faster, quicker, lightning speed, Charlie Lee loves it, blah blah blah.

那种感觉来得挺带劲，结果他们彻底坑了你，现在呢，你感觉啥也没捞着。

Like, this mood goes somewhere, and then they totally rug you, and now, you know, it's like, you know, you left feeling very empty handed.

如果现在让我选，我会投莱特币，想想真是挺遗憾的。

I would vote Litecoin now thinking through Man, what a bummer The U.

你有关注过吗？我不是足球专家，但我说点实话。

Have you been I'm not a soccer pro, but I'll tell you what.

预测市场和DraftKings已经不再给我发邮件了。

The prediction markets and DraftKings have stopped sending me the emails.

嘿，我们想你了。

Hey, we miss you.

你得赶紧回来，我现在可是全速重启了。

You gotta come on back because I'm back in full force.

我的意思是，我现在跟以前一样投入得很。

I mean, I'm I'm as heavy as ever right now.

这可能不只是某些加密货币的淡季问题。

It's the it might not it might not just be the dog days in certain cryptos.

体育博彩现在也进入淡季了，但他们正好赶上了世界杯，真是送上门来的好事。

It's kind of the dog days in sports betting, but they gave they blessed us with the World Cup right now.

我昨天还在下注呢。

And I'm betting stuff like yesterday.

我一个人在房间里唱着‘Hola, Hola, Hola’，因为姆巴佩昨天进了第一个球。

I'm singing in my room, Hola, Hola, Hola, because Mbappe scored the first goal yesterday.

我儿子问我：美国队赢了没？

My son's like, What's happening to The USA win?

我跟他说：不是，是法国队赢了，姆巴佩进的球，你懂的。

I was like, No, team France is winning and Mbappe scored, you know?

他问我，你干嘛在意这个？

And he's like, why do you care?

我就说，别放在心上。

And I'm like, yeah, don't worry about it.

不过，这确实挺有意思的。

But, it's it's been fun.

你最近有经常听吗？

Have you been tuning in a lot?

有。

Yeah.

我平时下午工作的时候，就当背景音放着，感觉特别好。

I've been it's been great background stuff during the afternoon while I'm working.

我直接把它开在我办公室的电视上，一直放着，不知不觉就对那些其实我不太喜欢的体育项目有了感觉。

I just have it in my office TV and just have it on the background, and then you kind of can feel like I'm a big for sports that I don't love.

比如我本身不是特别关注NBA，但现在是总决赛嘛。

Like, I'm not a huge NBA guy, but like it's the NBA finals.

我就开着电视，等到了第四节，要是比分咬得紧，自然就留意起来了。

Like, I'm gonna have it on and just eventually once it hits the fourth quarter, you know, if it's a close game, you kind of tune in.

我踢足球比赛也是这么个做法。

And that's kind of what I've doing with the soccer games.

就让它放着，慢慢能感受到气氛，上半场快结束、下半场快结束的时候，就会想：哎，这算不算他们常说的那个‘关键时刻’？

You just have them on and you can kind of feel it out, and like the end of the first half, second half, it's like, hey, is this is is this a moment, as they say, they like to say in soccer, what a moment?

就是那种‘关键时刻挺身而出’的感觉，我也慢慢听懂了不少行话。

Well, you know, rising to the moment, and I've been picking up on the lingo.

一场比赛他们叫一场‘cap’。

A game is a cap.

对他来说，这是一场不错的‘cap’。

It's like a good cap for him.

这是国际比赛。

It's an international play.

只要上场踢了，他们就说：他这场‘cap’表现不错。

If you play a game, they call it, oh, he had a good cap.

所以现在慢慢懂了这些行话，我觉得挺有意思的。

So picking up on the lingo, I'm enjoying it.

前几天那场阿根廷的比赛简直太震撼了。

That Argentina game the other day was unbelievable.

我全程都看完了。

I kind of caught that whole thing.

开着电视看着，越看越上瘾，最后完全沉浸进去了。

I had it on, and I was watching, and it kept building and building, and then like then I was locked in.

我当时心想，天哪，世界最强的球员居然要输给了埃及？

I was like, dude, I can't believe the best player in the world is about to lose to Egypt.

这太不可思议了。

That's crazy.

然后看着他们完成逆转。

And then to watch that watch that comeback.

那时候他们可是落后三比一啊。

You could have bought like they were down three one.

我看到有人在博彩平台上押了‘梅西会不会哭’这种选项。

I saw on cash, you could have bought like Will Messi Cry or something.

就是押梅西赢了然后哭。

It was like Will Messi win and cry.

比赛还剩三分钟，比分是三比一，有人在那时候以2%的赔率买了梅西逆转，结果真翻盘了，他哭了，那人赚翻了。

It was like 2% with three minutes to go or three three to one, that three to one, the score and like somebody somebody bought it at 2% and then it came back one and he cried and they made a bag.

我的天，那真是一场疯狂的比赛。

I mean, that was a crazy, crazy game dude.

看这场比赛太有意思了。

That that's been a lot of fun.

看到球星们在最关键的时刻挺身而出，真的特别过瘾，比如那个荷兰队的球员，还有挪威的，还有很多精彩的剧情，我真的很享受这个过程。

It's been a lot of fun seeing the stars kind of respond in the in the biggest moments here and like that Holland guy from, Norway and you know there's there's a lot of good good themes out there and I I've I'd rather enjoyed it.

我记得那个越位的梗，是你发在Instagram上的，还是我们那个Crypto 101的推特上？

I think it was your Instagram, or was it our Crypto one zero one Twitter with the offsides?

那是我第一次进球。

That was my first goal.

那是我的第一个进球。

That was my first goal.

我当时就知道了。

I knew.

是的。

Yeah.

我不记得有没有回你，但真的让我笑出声了。

That I don't know if I responded back, but gave gave me a a legit, like, laugh out loud.

我其实一直不太懂，这也说明我对足球有多不了解。

And have I I I never even really understood, and this is where how ignorant I am with soccer.

刚开始看足球的时候，我完全搞不懂越位。

Never really understood offsides and soccer in the first few games.

我就在想，这怎么就越位了？

I was just like, why is this offsides?

乱七八糟的。

Blah blah blah.

是的

Yeah.

但现在我明白了。

But now I get it.

而且

And

他们现在迟到了。

They're late now.

而且老兄，我觉得足球比赛有种仪式感，裁判有时候就像在推着球员们演戏一样。

And dude, I feel like the the there's like a pageantry of soccer where the refs are part of, like, egging the players on sometimes.

有时候他们判越位，延迟得特别夸张。

Like, there's sometimes where they make the offsides call, and it's, like, so delayed.

明明都让比赛继续打完了，才做出判罚，根本不是那种回放确认。

Like, they let the play go on and finish, and it's not even like the review.

他们管这叫回放判罚，也就是VAR。

They call it the review like VAR.

裁判做出判罚的时候，就像是在那儿犹豫。

It's like the the the ref will make a call.

他能想上将近半分钟。

He'll like, think about it for forty five seconds.

比赛都继续进行了，球都进了，他才慢悠悠地举旗，说：‘等等，越位了。’

The play continues, and they score and then he's like, actually, offsides and they raise their hand and start waving the flag.

这些裁判真是挺逗的。

Rest They are funny,

确实挺逗的。

they are.

他们就像这场球赛里的一群角色，活脱脱的。

They're like they're like they're like characters in this in this entire in the entire game.

而且我们还能说下去。

And then you got we could go on.

我们完全可以做个专题，讲讲伤停补时，怎么突然就加时了，为啥这么混乱，还老是加时？

We could do a whole show on like the extra time and like how that just pops up and like the confusion of it and why do they keep giving us extra time?

他们是怎么走到加时赛的？

How'd they get to that extra time?

我甚至觉得那可能是吧台边的人，比如杰克·麦克之类的。

And I even think think it was a barstool, maybe like Jack Mack or somebody.

当时有个人，好像是KFC那边的，说他们曾经专门审计过一次，发现裁判给的加时时间偏差挺大，但人家就说：别管它了。

It was, like, talking about how it doesn't even or KFC, one of those guys was talking about how they actually, like, audited it once and how off the extra time was by the referees, but they were like, hey, don't even worry about it.

我们就喜欢这样子。

We just like the way it is.

这事儿挺有意思的，一直追下来特别精彩，今天还有一场大比赛。

It's it's an interesting it's been it's been fabulous to follow, and we got a pretty good big game today.

今天是西班牙队。

We got Spain.

我老实说啊。

I'm not gonna lie.

我也在西班牙队上投了几笔预测市场，还押了几个冷门。

I got a couple prediction market bets on Spain too and a couple underplays there.

他们在世界杯上一直没丢过球，你真得想想，他们说不定能继续保持下去。

They haven't given up a goal in the in the in the So World Cup you you really have to think, they might keep that going.

有道理。

Fair enough.

我最后再提一个预测市场的事儿，我们之前没来得及聊第一次美联储会议，那周事情太多，我根本抽不开身。

I I do one final prediction market thing, we didn't get to cover the first Fed meeting, me and you didn't get to do one of those lives because we had there was just stuff going on that week, I couldn't do it.

我最后一刻发给你一个定价偏差，但那是个小众市场。

There was a mispricing that I texted you last minute, but it was what it was a it was a mention market.

问题是：凯文·沃什在六月的新闻发布会上会说什么？

It was what will Kevin Worsch say during the June press conference?

你还记得鲍威尔总爱说‘下午好’吗？

And remember how Powell always said good afternoon?

那可是他的标志性开场白。

That was like his thing.

是的。

Yeah.

概率是百分之九十九。

It was 99%.

所以他说‘下午好’，结果赔率大概是七比三。

And so they had good afternoon, and it was like seventy thirty.

他本人我不太了解，但他并不认同鲍威尔的观点。

And he doesn't he doesn't like, I don't know personally, but he doesn't agree with Powell.

所以他不会说，‘我早觉得这稳了’，毕竟这事儿是临时才冒出来的。

So he's not gonna go say like, I thought that was such a lock, and it was last minute.

我当时太忙了，根本没想起来，直到最后一刻才反应过来：哎，得赶紧找找有没有机会。

I didn't even think about it because I was so busy, and I was like, oh wait, I gotta see what I can get some action on.

我觉得那个三十比七十的错估太值了，买‘否’只要三十，相当于多赚了快三倍，简直太划算了。

And I just thought the mispricing of like 30, you could have gotten no for like 30, which is, you know, almost three extra money, like that's awesome.

于是我小押了一笔，结果赢了。

And so I I laid a little hammer on that and got got the w.

我们之前其实就提过这个事。

So and I we kind of said that.

真可惜咱们没做成一期节目。

It's a shame we didn't get to do a show.

我们本该提一下，你知道的，预测市场，特别是这个预测市场，有点偏向了，因为它们总是拿以前那位发言人的说法当标准。

We got to say how like, you know, hey, the prediction markets, the mention markets specifically might be a little lopsided because they're kind of gonna relate everything to the old speaker.

我觉得这个点挺有意思的。

So I thought that was a fun one.

我给你发了消息，但太晚了，不过我真的觉得这事儿特别靠谱。

I texted you, but it was too late, but I really thought that was a winner.

我看了，也收到了你的消息。

Well, I watched it and I got the text.

我记得这事。

I remember that.

我记得他还跟我们开了个小玩笑。

I remember he fired off a little good day at us.

那根本算不上个好下午。

You know, it wasn't a good afternoon.

他就给了我们一个大好的日子。

He just gave us a good day.

我当时就想，凯文这是……

And I'm like, Kevin's

那接下来轮到豆子了，下次好日子会是什么情况？

So then leaving next the beans, next time, good day is gonna be like what?

90%？80%？

90%, 80%?

肯定得是这样。

It has to be.

肯定会很高。

It's gonna be high.

那我们是不是要加码，跟上他的节奏？

And then do we double down to match his thing?

他突然变招了，这又是那种咱们该退出的情况吗？

He switches it up, is that another one where you just kind of fade?

也许别太强硬。

Maybe don't hammer.

上一次我稍微加了点压力，但这次你或许该退一步。

I kind of put a little hammer down on the on the last one, but maybe maybe you fade it.

然后——

And then

我觉得反向操作的思路是对的，如果赔率合适，就得跟他的反向走，毕竟他挺灵活的。

just I I see contrarian meme the contrarian me says we have to fade it if the odds are right that, you know, he's he's nimble.

他不是那种固执己见的人。

He's not he's not stuck in his ways.

他愿意调整，也愿意主动沟通。

You know, he's he's willing to he's willing to say hi.

对。

Yeah.

比如，跟大家打个招呼。

Like, hey, everybody.

我也是这么想的。

That's what I thought.

大家好啊。

Like, hey, everybody.

大家最近怎么样？

How's everybody doing?

大家今天过得怎么样？

Or how's everybody doing today?

换个方式挺好的。

Like a good switch it up.

我觉得可能就是这样操作的。

I kinda like I might I think that's how the play.

上次你说的那套，大概有八九成会重复，这时候你就反着来。

It's like whatever you said last time probably will be like 80 to 90%, and then you just fade that.

我绝对不选紫色领带。

I'm definitely not going purple tie.

我只能告诉你这么多。

I'll tell you that much.

我确实是在按凯尔的想法行事。

I was definitely Kyle's thinking.

这领带到底是什么颜色来着？

What color what color was worse this tie?

我记得我问过你，当时我就说，这领带是什么颜色？

I think it was like, I asked you, I was like, what color is this tie?

可能是蓝色。

Maybe blue.

一种蓝色调。

Like a shade of blue.

对。

Yeah.

所以它

So it

完全是相反的。

was like opposite.

共和党那种红色，你偏偏选了反的。

A Republican red, you do go the opposite.

我就是那种，你知道的，跨党派思考的人。

It's like, oh, I'm a, you know, cross aisle thinker.

我今天穿的是蓝色。

I'm wearing blue today.

对。

Yeah.

所以，肯定会有不少实时市场反应。

So, well, there there's definitely gonna be some live mention markets.

咱们 definitely 应该再做一期美联储专题。

We should definitely do another, Fed show.

但我特别喜欢你这种思维方式。

But I love I love the way you're thinking.

我觉得得反着来，除非情况特别明显，非得直接冲进去不可。

I think we have to fade the good day, unless it's just obvious that we just have to slam it.

不过说实话，你这个判断太准了，我一点都不意外，老兄。

But, you know, I I I think, I think that was a very sharp call from you, and I wouldn't expect anything less, man.

现在都七月了，你居然在聊罗宾汉，这不正是你的强项吗。

I mean, it's July, and we're talking about Robin Hood just right up your wheelhouse.

罗宾汉本人真该给你背书才对。

I mean, Robin Hood Robin Hood should be giving you an endorsement.

这事儿我才最想知道。

That's what I need to know.

你最近跟他开了这么多会。

You're having all these meetings with him.

你得跟他说清楚，我可是早就看好你们了，一直都在推荐。

You need to really be like, I've been I've been calling and touting you guys for years now.

我早就跟所有人提过你们了。

I've been telling everybody about you.

你这人真有远见啊。

You've been seeing the future, my guy.

有人可能会说，你是在预判未来。

Predicting the future, some may say.

在努力。

Trying.

我尽全力了，也会继续努力，为大家带来最好的加密内容、最棒的预测市场，还有路上的 lots of fun。

Trying my best, and we'll continue to try our best to bring the best crypto content, the best prediction markets, and just a lot of fun along the way.

感谢大家周五还来参与。

Thanks everybody for joining on a Friday.

最后再提醒一下。

One last call.

点个赞吧。

Give it a thumbs up.

还没订阅的，记得在右下角点个关注，顺便看看下方的链接，加入我们的社区，更深入地参与进来。

Subscribe if you hadn't on the bottom right and check out the links below so you can get more involved with us inside the community.

希望大家周末剩下的时间都过得愉快。

I hope everybody has a great rest of their weekend.

下周我们会回来，带来几场精彩的访谈和更多精彩的总结。

We'll be back next week with some awesome interviews and some more great rundowns.

到时候见。

We'll see you then.

今天就先到这里了。

But that's all for now.

再见，各位。

Bye bye, everybody.