SpaceX 上市预测：最大机遇还是最大陷阱？兼比特币技术分析

很难想起最近还有哪次美联储会议比这次更值得一看。

It's hard to think of a a a more recent must watch Fed meeting.

数据一直在出来，一整年都是这样，我们得承认自己对的时候，毕竟我们经常是对的，但错的时候也得认。

But the data keeps coming out and all year and hand up, you know, we gotta admit when we're right because we're right a lot, but we gotta admit when we're wrong.

我年初的时候觉得，数据已经不一样了。

And I I thought going into the year, the data, you know, has changed.

你当然可以改变自己的看法。

You're allowed to change your opinion.

我记得在你节目快结束时，我说过，我觉得咱们可能会看到一些降息，

But I remember at the end of your show, I I said, was like, yeah, I think we're gonna get, you know, some rate cuts here.

可能三到四次，甚至比市场预期的还多。

Maybe three, four, maybe more than what's priced in.

但那是战前的事了，那时候还没开战。

And that has been again, this is pre war, so there's no war.

那时候也没通胀。

There's no inflation.

所以你知道，情况已经完全变了。

So, you know, the the the game has totally changed.

作为投资者和交易员，你当然可以改变看法，但我显然在12月份的时候没料到会爆发战争。

So you're allowed to change your opinion as an investor and a trader, but I I didn't see the war coming obviously back in December.

所以数据一直在变，布兰登。

So the data's changing, Brandon.

你今天把这个情况摆到了桌面上。

You brought this to to the table today.

所以一旦结合这些不断变化的新数据来看，降息预期是不是也在跟着变？

So once you break it down with the the new data that is changing and thus rate cuts, the price in rate cuts are changing?

对。

Yeah.

事实确实如此，你说得没错。

What we've seen here is you're right.

数据确实已经变了。

The data has changed.

我们所有人年初都这么想，说句实话。

We I think all of us really kinda came into the year and were saying, hey.

刚经历完那场暴跌，10月10号那次。

You know, we are coming off the 10/10 crash.

当时确实有些动荡，情绪也很负面。

There was some turbulence, obviously, negativity.

但放眼未来，我们觉得宏观基本面其实没变。

But we are looking at the horizon and saying, hey, the the macro really hasn't changed.

我们预期会降息。

We're looking at rate cuts.

美联储主席也要换人了。

We're gonna get a new Fed chair.

新主席会更偏向宽松。

He's gonna be more dovish.

这可能会让降息幅度比市场原先预期的还要大。

That's probably gonna even increase to to more rate cuts than people had priced in originally.

但就像你说的，最近出现了一些意外情况，打乱了原来的预期。

And then, like you said, there's been a couple of curveballs here that has changed that.

现在呢，是地缘政治冲突和其他一些突发因素共同作用的结果，对吧？

Now what you get is the result of some geopolitical conflicts and just some other things that are just happening, right?

通胀开始上升了。

Inflation going up.

这其实就是问题的核心所在。

That's kind of like what this gets around to.

所以，这周早些时候我们刚公布了CPI数据。

So this is just saying, Hey, we had CPI earlier this week.

紧接着，PPI——也就是生产者价格指数——也出炉了。

We just had PPI, which is the producer's price index come out here.

PPI同比涨幅从预期的6.4%升到了6.5%，高于市场预期。

And you had PPI increase from 6.5% year over year versus the estimated 6.4%, so higher than expected there.

环比方面，PPI涨了1.1%，而预期只有0.7%，也明显高出不少。

You had the PPI for month over month come in at 1.1% versus the estimated of 0.7%, so that's coming in higher.

不过核心通胀仍然是一个备受关注的焦点。

You did have core however, which remains like a pretty big talking point.

核心通胀无论在哪里，都在持续走低。

Core inflation, wherever it may be, is continually coming in lower.

这意味着，如果剔除波动较大的食品和能源部分，通胀其实并没有人们想象的那么严重。

So it's saying if you're factoring out some of the volatile food and energy sectors, inflation really isn't as bad as people expect it to be.

只有把食品和能源这些波动大的部分加进来，才能看到我们眼下真实的通胀水平。

It's only until you factor in the volatile food and energy sectors that you really do get the true inflation that we're seeing here.

所以人们才说通胀是暂时的。

So that's why people argue that it's transitory.

也就是说，他们觉得一旦这场战争结束，霍尔木兹海峡重新开放，所有这些压力都会消退。

And what that means is that they're saying once this war and stuff goes away, once the Strait Of Hormuz reopens, all of this goes back down.

所谓‘暂时的’，意思就是一旦这些冲突结束，所有物价都会迅速回落，回归正常。

That's what transitory essentially means, is that once this conflict and stuff ends, all of this stuff comes crashing back down and goes back to normal.

所以这里的区别在于，核心通胀看起来还算稳定，但普通的通胀——不管是CPI还是PPI——都比预期高，情况更糟。

So that's the difference here is, again, you're seeing core inflation be fairly fine, but, you know, normal inflation, whether it's CPI or PPI here, coming in higher than expected and worse than expected.

那这对咱们投资者来说意味着什么？

So what does that mean for us as investors?

这其实又回到了我们刚才说的点：如果情况持续下去，可能会带来一些问题，因为现在我们预计今年可能会有两次降息。

Well, this kind of goes back to the point we were just talking about, which is that if this remains the case, it's going to cause some issues, because now we are looking at probably two rate cuts this year.

像我这样的人觉得，降息次数说不定还会更多。

People saying, like myself, thinking, Hey, we could get more than that.

可现在市场上突然开始讨论，甚至定价预期今年可能一次降息都没有，反而可能加息。

Now all of a sudden, there's talks, and they're actually pricing in a rate hike on the year, so zero cuts, and maybe a hike instead of cuts.

所以，现在这种可能性也被纳入了考虑范围。

So now all of sudden that's being priced in as a possibility on the table.

从历史上看，这对加密货币市场可不是什么好事。

That has historically not been a good thing for the crypto market.

加密市场一向喜欢降息。

The crypto market likes rate cuts.

金融行业，你也知道，同样是偏爱降息的。

The financial sector, you know, it likes rate cuts.

风险资产喜欢降息，因为企业能以更低的成本借贷，等等，这会带来一系列连锁反应。

Risk assets like rate cuts because businesses can borrow at cheaper prices and etc, and that has a ripple effect that goes down the line.

所以这很重要，对吧？

So that's why this matters, right?

因为如果通胀加剧，降息的可能性就会降低，而加息的可能性则会上升。

Is because if inflation is getting worse, then there's going to be less chance of rate cuts and a higher chance for rate hikes.

如果加息的可能性变大，风险资产的表现往往会变差。

If there's a higher chance of rate hikes, then risk assets can tend to perform worse.

这可能带来风险。

That can be a risk.

像加密货币这样的资产，也会受到这方面的影响。

And then you have, again, like something like crypto here, is being somewhat affected by this.

我觉得这才是正确的看待方式。

And I think that's the way to look at it.

所以我们才在这里提到这一点。

So that's why we bring it up here.

我觉得宏观层面没必要一看见数据就惊慌失措。

I think the macro is not you know, you don't wanna look at this and be like, oh my gosh.

不可能就凭这一个数据点，今天就做出所有财务决策。

I'm gonna make every financial decision all today based off this one data point.

但你得认真考虑它可能对市场造成的影响，这也是我们今天想好好理清的一点。

But you need to consider it and kind of the the effects that it could have on the market, which is one of the things that we wanna, like, just digest here.

我们的工作就是过滤掉所有杂音、新闻和各种信息，用简单易懂的方式解释清楚，分析它可能带来的利与弊。

Again, our job is to go through all the noise, all the news, all the everything, explain it in a fairly easy to understand manner, talk about the pros and cons of how it could affect us, and explain it.

而且要提前做好准备，明白事情为什么会这样发展。

And again, to be prepared and understand what's happening and why it's happening.

这也就是我们为什么要提这个话题。

And that's really why we bring it up.

说得很到位。

Great points.

说得很到位。

Great points.

我们来看一下图表吧，毕竟SpaceX上市、通胀数据、AI板块火热，而比特币市场却低迷。

Let's jump into the charts because again, the SpaceX IPO inflation data and just a hot market for, you know, AI and a down market for Bitcoin.

定期检查一下情况总是有好处的。

It's always good just to check-in.

不用花太多时间，简单看看就行。

You know, don't have to do too much time.

只做一下宏观层面的梳理。

Just do the high level stuff.

下周五我和你还会回来，做一次完整的技术分析。

And then next week we'll be back with me and you on Friday for a full technical analysis.

我觉得上市后这一周再做分析会更好，因为现在市场至少暂时冷静了下来，但我们肯定会再回来讨论。

I think it'll be good to do that after a week of the IPO because I feel like stuff right now is a little bit kinda at least chilling for the moment, but we'll definitely come back.

记得把下周五标在日历上。

So mark your calendars next Friday.

下周五，布伦特和我会深入分析图表。

Brent and I will be back doing a deep dive on the charts.

是的。

Yeah.

你看，比特币现在还是在延续跌破走势。

Well, you know, Bitcoin here still following the breakdown.

对吧？

Right?

我们一直关注着，从历史高点之后，它就一路下行，形成一个又一个看跌旗形，再下行，再一个看跌旗形，接着又一个，再一个。

We've we've tracked this for a while saying, hey, ever since the all time high, you basically moved down, bear flag, moved down, bear flag, moved down, bear flag, moved down.

这次也没例外。

And this is no exception.

又是一个出现在图表上升通道中的看跌旗形。

Another bear flag via one of these rising channels on the charts.

比特币这里有个很明确的阻力区域。

Pretty clear rejection zone for Bitcoin.

它已经拒绝了之前的盘整区间，以前是支撑位，现在变成了阻力位。

Rejected its prior consolidation range, former support, now used as resistance in here.

跌破了200日均线，就是那条黄线。

Rejected the two hundred day moving average, which is the yellow line.

还有那个锚定的VWAP，橙色的那条线。

The anchored VWAP, which is the orange line.

还有之前那个看跌旗形的上沿。

The top of this bear flag that it was in.

就是我们标出来的这条小白线。

You know, this little white line that we have.

所有这些关键位置都被跌破了。

Rejected all these key levels.

冲到看跌旗形的顶部后，直接掉头向下。

Hit the top of the bear flag.

一路暴跌，穿过所有主要均线，连看跌旗形本身的支撑位都突破了，直到这时候，下跌的加速才真正显现——因为旗形突破本就是看跌的持续形态。

Crashed down through all of its major moving averages, broke down through support of the bear flag itself, and then that's when you really started to see the acceleration once the bear flag broke, which is a continuation pattern to the downside.

这次大破位来得猛烈，直接把价格拉回了前期低点。

So big old break here, and it brought us right back to the lows.

现在我在这儿画了一条小小的波动白线，说明我们确实跌破了二月之前的那个低点和周期低点。

Now I have a little wiggly white line down here to show, hey we actually did break lower than our prior swing low, our prior cycle low, back in February.

所以价格从六万稍微跌到了五万九左右，这里出现了一个略低的新低点。

So we broke a little bit lower from 60,000 down to around 59,000, so slightly lower low happening in here.

不过大部分时间，我们并没有收在六万以下。

However, we really didn't close below 60 k for the most part.

收盘价大概在六万一千左右，这仍然是本轮下跌中最低的收盘K线实体。

We were closing around 61,000 ish, which is again still the lowest candle body closing that we've gotten this this downtrend.

但关键的是，价格一直守在之前的低点附近，这一点值得注意。

But again, holding around our prior lows, which is something to note.

现在最大的问题是，这到底是不是最终的底部？

The big question here now is like, well, is that the absolute low?

这是否就是本轮周期的最低点？

Is that the cycle low?

我觉得现在下定论还太早，对吧？

I think it's too early to say, right?

我们上星期五才刚触及这个低点。

We just came in on this low last Friday.

连一周的盘整都还没满。

It hasn't even been a one week of consolidation.

也许我们还需要再多一点盘整的时间。

Maybe we need a little bit more of that.

我觉得还得再看看。

I think we'll kind of see.

我们得观察一下接下来会怎么走。

I think we need to see what this is going to be.

这会是形成一个旗形整理的空头走势吗？

Is this gonna be a bear flag via a pennant?

还是会变成另一种上升通道式的空头旗形？

Is this gonna be another kind of rising channel bear flag?

说不定这里会走出一波反弹呢。

You know, maybe we get something bullish out of here.

我们看到一个上升三角形，对吧？

We get an ascending triangle, right?

这种情况有好几种可能的发展方向。

There's a number of different ways it could go.

在这样的位置，我觉得还是得谨慎一点。

I think you have to lean a little bit cautious at an area like this.

下行趋势很明显是看跌的，对吧？

The downtrend is very clearly bearish, right?

过去六到九个月，趋势可没站在我们这边。

The trend is not our friend over the last six to nine months.

所以我觉得在这个位置还是得小心为上。

So I think you gotta be a little bit careful at this area.

另外，从历史来看，熊市旗形通常会跌破新低。

And then the other thing is that historically, you know, kind of with bear flag, you get breaks to new lows.

而这次，熊市旗形确实跌破了新低。

Here you have a bear flag breaking the new low.

空头旗形跌破新低。

Bear flag breaking the new low.

空头旗形跌破新低。

Bear flag breaking the new low.

这里的情况是，这个空头旗形、上升通道，已经跌破了之前的低点，但还没创下新低。

Here, what we have is this bear flag, this rising channel, with a break, excuse me, to the lows, but not yet to a new low.

所以我觉得，我脑子里最大的疑问就是：比特币会不会真的跌破新低？

So I think that remains like a big question at the forefront of my mind is, well, are we gonna break, get that break to new lows on Bitcoin?

从技术面上看，确实有点接近了，但你想想，这算什么？

Technically speaking, you've got a little bit, but you know, what?

就差1%而已？

It's a 1% difference?

大概就这个差距。

About?

所以这边没什么特别极端的走势，我觉得这个问题还是留着吧。

So nothing too, too crazy over here, and I think it kind of leaves that idea on the table.

有可能会出现新低，所以我才想再谨慎一点，稳妥一点。

Hey, there is the possibility that new lows could be something that's possible, which is why I wanna be just, again, a little bit cautious, a little bit safe.

我可不会在这里孤注一掷。

I'm not going, you know, YOLO all in here.

我得留点现金在手上，以防万一。

I wanna make sure I got some cash on hand and stuff.

不过，你确实得考虑这种情况。

But, yeah, I think you gotta consider this.

从下行角度看，另一个值得关注的是，之前周期的低点——也就是2022年的低点——还留着一个锚定的VWAP。

Note to the downside here, I guess the other things to look at is that you do have an anchored VWAP from the prior cycle's lows, so back from 2022.

如果从那个点算锚定VWAP，比特币的价格大概就在58美元左右。

If you do an anchored VWAP from there, you have that right around the high 50s in terms of Bitcoin's price.

另外，还有200周均线，这在过去也是一个非常关键的支撑区域。

And then you also have the two hundred week moving average, which has been a pretty big historical zone as well.

比特币的200周均线过去多次在这里形成底部，大致就在55到60美元之间。

And you have the two hundred week moving average on Bitcoin, which has been a big bottoming point in the past, right around the low sixties, high fifties as well.

所以我们之前在2015到2016年、2018到2019年，还有2020年，都把这里当作支撑位和底部区域。

And so, you know, we've used that as support and a bottoming point in 2015 and '16, in 2018 and '19, 2020.

2022年我们虽然跌破了，但这里还是起到了底部的作用。

2022, we came below it, but was still a bottoming point.

现在我们又回到了这个区域附近。

And now we're kind of back at that zone again.

所以我会盯着这个位置，觉得值得留意。

So I would be looking at this and saying, hey.

我觉得在这个价位附近，长期来看其实有不少价值机会。

You know, I think there's a lot of long term value that comes out of us being around this area.

也许价格还会再跌一点。

Maybe we go a little bit lower.

但这并不会改变我的判断——历史上，我们总是在这个均线附近、或者更低的位置寻找买入机会。

That doesn't change my thought process, which is that historically, you look for value at or below the two hundred week moving average at some of these key levels.

所以这让我更想入手比特币，尤其是在五万美元以下的时候。

So that kind of makes me wanna be a buyer of Bitcoin, especially under 50,000.

所以这是我目前在关注的一个点。

And so it's something that I'm looking at.

我们好久没聊过TiVo了，但如果你看比特币在回调50%到60%之后的表现，一年后盈利的概率非常值得关注。

And of the things we haven't talked about in a while, TiVo, is that if you look at how Bitcoin has performed once it's at a 50 to 60% retracement, the odds of it being profitable a year a year later is something that is really interesting.

我先把这组数据贴到图表上，让大家能清楚看到这个数字。

I'm gonna throw this up on the chart so that everyone can kind of just see this number.

你可以看到，当比特币处于50%回撤位置时，根据历史数据，一年后上涨的概率高达89.8%。

But you can see that when Bitcoin's at a 50% drawdown, which well if you look at it one year later, based on historical data, it has an 89.8% win rate.

也就是说，如果你在比特币回调50%或更深的时候买入，然后等一年，历史数据显示你有89.8%的概率能赚钱。

So it's saying if you're buying Bitcoin at a 50% drawdown or worse, and you look back, you know, or excuse me, you look forward a year from that point in time, the odds that you'll be profitable one year later are 89.8%.

一年后的平均回报率能达到125%。

The average return on that run one year later is 125%.

如果你是在60%回撤时买入，屏幕上的数据你能看清吗，TiVo？

If you're buying at a 60% drawdown, what you're looking at can you see this on the screen, Tivo?

我并不是

I'm not

当然不行，我看不见。

sure if No, I can't.

我只能看到图表。

I just see the charts still.

我再共享一次屏幕。

Let me do a screen share of this one more time.

我来操作一下。

Let me do that.

这就是我刚才说的那张图。

So this is that chart that I was saying.

你要是能在下跌50%的时候买入，一年后盈利的概率是89.8%，平均回报率能达到125%。

Again, you're buying at a 50% drawdown, your one year win rate will be 89.8%, and then your average return rate will be 125%.

如果你是在下跌60%或更深的时候买入——虽然我们还没到那个点，但已经越来越近了——根据这些数据，一年后盈利的概率是98.3%，平均回报率是132%。

If you're buying at a 60% or worse drawdown, which we have not hit yet, but you know we've come, we're getting there, the odds that you'll be profitable one year later based on this data is 98.3% with an average return rate of 132%.

所以，价格还能再跌吗？

So again, could we go lower?

是的。

Yes.

我们再往下看吗？

Should we go lower?

我的看法——再说一遍，这不是投资建议——但我个人想买入，因为胜率超过九成，差不多就在这个区间。

My opinion, again, not financial advice, but I wanna be a buyer, you know, looking at 90 plus percent odds are around that area.

我愿意承担这个风险。

I'm okay taking that risk.

也许我会错，也许会亏钱，也许结果并不是这样。

And maybe I'm wrong, maybe I lose money, and maybe it doesn't work out that way.

但根据历史数据，我觉得比特币确实存在一些值得把握的机会。

But, again, based on historical data, I do think that there's some opportunity that we can look at in Bitcoin.

当然，我们也可能继续下跌，但这不会让我对其中的价值视而不见。

And, again, it is possible we do go lower, but that's not something that's gonna deter me too, too much in looking at some of the value.

最后我想说的是，很多其他主流加密货币的情况也差不多，对吧？

The final thing I'll say here is that, you know, a lot of these other large caps are looking somewhat similar, right?

你看，这里的价格跌破了前期低点。

You kind of have a break of the lows moving down here.

以太坊、索拉纳、瑞波币、BNB，

Eth, Solana, XRP, BNB, a

很多

lot

这些图表都差不多，都是跌破新低后，暂时在低位盘整。

of these charts all look similar, where they kind of had a break to the new lows, and they're just consolidating down there for the moment.

所以这些山寨币现在更弱了，已经跌到了历史低位。

So a little bit more weakness in terms of these alt coins as they have kind of broken down into some record levels.

这个情况你得留意一下。

So you wanna keep an eye on that.

比特币看起来相对强一些，状态也更健康。

You know, Bitcoin looks a little bit stronger and healthier.

就连之前涨得特别猛的币，比如Hyperliquid、Near和Venice，现在也都在回调，市场暂时在整理，但我依然对它们很看好。

And even some of the coins that were heavily outperforming, like Hyperliquid and Near and Venice, Even those coins are starting to come down a little bit here as things are settling out for the time being, but, you know, still things that I'm excited about.

我们待会儿再聊Hyperliquid，不过我还是挺看好这些项目的。

You know, we'll talk about Hyperliquid a little bit later on, but still projects that I like.

我觉得，眼下依然有很多机会。

I still think, again, there's tons of opportunity out there.

从这些回调中，关键是看哪些项目基本面扎实，你大概率还能找到非常值得交易和长期持有的标的。

And out of these dips, think you look at what's fundamentally strong, and you're probably going to still find things that are very, very tradable and longable.

所以。

So

分析得真到位。

Great breakdown.

分析得很清楚，也真实反映了我们当前的处境。

It's a great breakdown and just kind of the reality of where we are.

接下来自然过渡到Saylor的那句话，说比特币现在相对更强一些。

Good transition into the Saylor quote of kind of saying like, hey, Bitcoin's a little bit stronger right now.

所有其他币种都还偏弱。

All coins a little bit weak.

迈克尔·塞勒点名了一些山寨币，表达了对它们的看法。

Saylor took on some altcoins calling out a variety of them.

咱们来听听他是怎么说的。

So let's take take a listen here.

如果你关注市场，就会发现对以太坊的信心已经崩塌了。

Confidence in Ethereum has collapsed if you're paying attention.

你看整个加密市场，现在是以太坊、Solana和BNB在互相竞争。

What what you see in the rest of the crypto market is there's a competition between Ethereum, Solana, BNB.

以前SWE被认为是下一个Solana，但后来它崩了。

For the long time, SWE was the next Solana, and then that collapsed.

现在大家又开始追捧Hyperliquid了。

And now there's hype Hyperliquid.

在二层网络这边，Bitrum和Base也在激烈竞争。

And then there's competition at the layer twos with our Bitrum and and Base.

这些竞争已经让所有这些加密代币的货币溢价被大幅削弱了。

And all of those things have stripped the monetary premium on all those crypto tokens.

我觉得，就连那些相信这些代币的人也明白，它们根本算不上货币。

And I think that I think that even the people that believe in the tokens realize that they're not money.

它们不可能拥有货币那样的溢价。

They're not gonna have a monetary premium.

它们的生死完全取决于实际用途，而眼下大家都在激烈竞争。

They're gonna live or die based on utility, and they're all in a a difficult competition.

我觉得过去十二个月，比特币作为主导性的数字价值网络，地位得到了极大巩固。

So I I think the last twelve months have been really good for the position of Bitcoin as the dominant digital monitoring network.

他们已经让比特币成为数字时代的资本。

They've established Bitcoin as digital capital.

我觉得我们已经证明了数字信贷这个概念是行得通的。

I think we've proven digital credit is an idea that works.

你知道，信心十足

You know, confident

这句话挺有意思，但他毕竟只是个评论员，我们只是尽量客观报道新闻而已。

It's an interesting quote, but, like, he's you know, we we just try to cover the news.

他也提到过另一面。

He's talked to other side of that too.

他说过，当市场火热、大家都赚得不错的时候，迈克尔·塞勒也说过，人人都在赢。

He's like, you know, when the market's hot and everybody's doing good, Saylor's had quotes where he said, you know, everybody's winning.

以太坊会赢，没错，就是这样。

Ethereum's gonna win, and, you know, this right.

我这么说不对吗？

Is Am I wrong about that?

不对。

No.

你说得对。

You're right.

我刚才笑是因为他现在简直在到处树敌，蒂沃。

It's I was laughing because he's just making enemies right now, Tivo.

他这是在开战了。

He he's going to war.

他让一些比特币支持者对他不满，之前说永远不会卖比特币，现在却在卖。

He's got some of the Bitcoin people against him, said he'd never sell Bitcoin, selling some Bitcoin.

你知道的，他一直在切换立场。

You know, he's taking these different stances.

以前支持以太坊，现在更偏向比特币了。

Used to be pro Ethereum, but more pro Bitcoin.

现在完全不行了。

Now it's a no.

已经崩了。

It's collapsed.

情况太糟了。

It's so bad.

市场极度看跌。

It's so bearish.

说真的，麦克雷现在成了看空比特币的人了。

I mean, Saylor the bear, man.

赛勒尔突然转成看空，抛售一些比特币，还说以太坊完蛋了，到处树敌。

Saylor coming out as the bear, selling some Bitcoin, saying Ethereum's collapsed, making enemies.

我觉得吧，他可能得继续为自己的比特币立场站台，加倍押注，但这么说话，真没法赢得好感。

I again, I guess he's gotta talk his bag on on Bitcoin here and double down, but he's not making friends saying things like that.

我并不

I don't

真不知道他今年怎么了。

know what's gotten into him this year.

有个问题想问一下。

Quick question.

你的电脑是本身太老了，还是被那些本该保护它的软件拖慢了？

Is your computer actually old or is it just being dragged down by the stuff that's supposed to protect it?

因为这点，其实没人真正在意。

Because that's the part nobody really thinks about.

很多传统的杀毒软件都特别吃资源。

A lot of traditional antivirus programs are heavy.

它们占空间、拖慢速度，还老弹广告，结果你只能怪自己的笔记本，觉得是不是该换新电脑了。

They take up space, slow things down, throw pop ups at you, and then you're sitting there blaming your laptop like, well, maybe it's time for a new one.

但有时候问题不在设备本身，而在你的杀毒软件。

But sometimes your device isn't the problem, your antivirus is.

我们做加密货币的都知道，得用顶级的杀毒软件来保护资产安全。

And us being in crypto, we know that we need a top tier antivirus program to keep our assets safe.

所以选Webroot再合适不过了。

That's why Webroot makes sense.

Webroot是基于云的杀毒软件，设计上就不会打扰你正常使用。

Webroot is a cloud based antivirus, so it's built to stay out of your way.

它比那些臃肿的竞品节省多达33倍的空间，扫描速度还快六倍，打开几个标签页时，电脑不会再像喘不过气一样卡顿。

It takes up to 33 times less space than bulky competitors and scans six times faster, so you're getting protection without your computer feeling like it's fighting for its life every time you open up a few tabs.

现在这尤其重要，因为AI已经彻底改变了网络安全的格局。

And this matters more now because AI has changed the cybersecurity game.

钓鱼邮件越来越逼真，骗局越来越狡猾，恶意软件也跑得飞快。

Phishing emails look more real, scams are getting smarter, and malware moves fast.

所以你需要一种能真正跟得上节奏的防护方案。

So you need protection that can actually keep up.

Webroot 能实时保护你，抵御恶意软件、钓鱼攻击、勒索软件和其他威胁，无论你是工作、浏览、看视频，还是只是想安安静静用电脑，别让它响得像要起飞一样。

Webroot helps defend you in real time against malware, phishing, ransomware, and other threats, whether you're working, browsing, streaming, or just trying to use your computer without it sounding like it's about to take off.

限时优惠，通过访问 webroot.com/crypto10one，现在购买 Webroot 可省 60%。

For a limited time, you can save 60% on Webroot when you go to webroot.com/crypto10one.

今天只要通过 webroot.com/crypto10one 访问，就能享受六折优惠。

That's 60% off today, but only when you go to webroot.com/crypto10one.

是啊，毕竟在损益表上亏了几十亿美元。

Yeah, well, a couple billion dollars on a P and L into the negative.

我们对这种人就是这么干的。

We'll do that to people.

你去问问汤姆·李，他当初是怎么评价以太坊的。

Ask Tom Lee for a quote about what he said about Ethereum.

汤姆·李就冲我耸了耸肩。

Tom Lee just gave me a shrug.

他说，我要再买一些。

He said, I'll buy some more.

我会再买点以太坊，Bitmind也在持续买入，他们还在推出优先股。

I'll buy some more Eth, Bitmind buying more just continues, continues to buy and they were launching that preferred stock.

所以我们还会继续关注这件事。

So that's something we'll continue to watch.

但这并不是说别的地方就明显更好，只是稍微好一点而已。

But again, it's not necessarily, it's a stronger pasture, but not not too much of a greener pasture.

我觉得迈克·诺沃格拉茨有句挺有意思的话，他说：6万美元这个位置有技术支撑，但如果你喜欢祈祷，那就多念几遍吧。

I thought this was a fun quote of Mike Novogratz basically saying, Hey, the 60 ks level, we have technical support, but you know, if you're somebody that likes to pray, say a couple prayers.

咱们来看看迈克到底怎么说的。

So let's take a look at what Mike said.

迈克尔，我们现在聊的时候，价格是62000。

Michael, so we're at 62 as you and I are speaking.

会跌到5万吗？

Does it head to 50?

在回升到70之前，会不会先跌到50附近？

Does it head into the fifties before it gets back to 70?

我提一下，ETF刚推出的时候，我们还在40出头，那是2024年1月。

I'll just point out when the ETF started, we were around the low forties in January 2024.

你觉得接下来会往哪儿走？

So where do you think we're going?

如果真能突破60，我并不确定会不会直接跌到55到52之间。

I don't have a strong conviction if we take out 60, we're going to head to the mid 50s to low 50s.

然后可能就是50，再往上是75。

And then it'll be a fifty, seventy five.

我觉得80是个目标，我以前说过，现在还后悔当时涨到82没多卖点。

I think 80, I said this before and I'm mad at myself for not selling enough when we got up to 82.

上次到60的时候我就说80，必须得突破80、82、83才算数。

When we were at 60 last time I said 80, you gotta have to take out $80.82, 83.

除非真能冲破这个位置，否则80就是高点；要是真破了，那可能就奔100去了。

That's gonna be the top unless it takes that out and then it goes to 100.

那边没冲上去，失败了。

Well, failed up there.

现在我觉得，80还是你得守住的关键位。

And now I think that still is 80 is still your stealing.

这就是阻力位，吉姆。

That's the resistance, Jim.

要是能突破60，50到45就敞开了。

If you take out 60, it opens up 50, know, 45 to 50.

如果你是个虔诚的教徒，这时候就得念两遍《圣母经》和《主祷文》，盼着60能撑住。

And so if you're a good Catholic, you're saying two Hail Marys and our Father, that 60 holds.

现在加密市场就是卡在这个位置，各位。

That's where we are right now in the crypto market folks.

我刚又看了那段播客的片段，里面说的是一种情绪，就是老派加密圈的人对比特币的态度。

I saw another clip from that podcast where it was just saying, it was like a sentiment, you know, for the Bitcoin, you know, the old school crypto heads.

就是觉得，没劲了。

It's just like, don't have the energy.

这句话挺有意思的。

It was an interesting quote.

虽然很短，不值得专门放出来听，但核心意思就是：我们现在没这个精力了。

It was short, so it wasn't worth like playing, but the thesis of it was, it was like, we don't have the energy right now.

新入局的比特币玩家和加密货币新人纷纷退出，因为他们抄在了高点；而那些经历过好几轮周期的老玩家呢，心里清楚这事儿以前见过，但说实话，我现在真没心思应付了。

Like, you know, the new Bitcoiners and the new crypto people, they're bailing because they, you know, bought the top and then the old Bitcoiners that have been through multiple cycles, it's like, yeah, we've seen this before, but like, I can't deal with this right now.

现在市场上其他事情太多了。

There's there's too much else going on in the markets.

对吧？

Right?

比如AI交易就挺火，还有其他很多领域值得研究、能赚钱。

Like with in a positive way with AI trade and there's other areas to to research and make money.

我觉得这个观点挺有意思，尤其是Galaxy这家公司，既涉足加密货币，也做能源相关业务。

So I I thought that was an interesting interesting take, especially because Galaxy is is, you know, dabbles in both crypto and the energy side.

你们怎么看？

But any any thoughts?

你是不是也跟诺沃格拉茨一样，坐到长椅上不动了？

Are you joining are you joining, like, Novogratz in the pew?

我觉得我们每个人大概都说过一两次吧。

I think we all probably said one or two.

你知道的。

You know?

可能是为了比特币。

Maybe it's for Bitcoin.

也可能是为了我们喜欢的某个山寨币。

Maybe it's for an altcoin, though, that we like.

不过我觉得，他在这方面一直挺理性的，他说：兄弟们。

But no, I think, again, I think he's he's been pretty level headed about it, saying, hey, guys.

就跟我们刚才说的一样，行情还有可能再跌一点。

The same thing that that we just said is, like, there's the possibility that we go a little bit lower.

他还留了余地，说：喂。

He he even left that open ended, saying, hey.

你说，咱们会不会跌到五六十区间？

You know, could we go into the fifties?

这事儿有可能。

It's possible.

会不会比现在再低一点？

Could we go a little bit lower than we're currently priced at?

他留了余地，我同意他的看法。

He left the door open, and I would agree with him.

他可没坐在那儿说，兄弟们，情况很糟。

He's not sitting there saying, guys, it is ugly.

马上就要崩盘了。

It's gonna get horrible.

肯定要往下掉。

We're gonna go down.

他可没这么说。

He's not saying that.

他说话的方式更温和、更谨慎，偏向于风险控制，或者说是……

He's you just hear a soft, slight, more more risk based approach where or sorry.

一种更保守的态度，他说的是：我得在这儿小心点。

A less risk based approach where he's saying, I wanna be careful around here.

我们还可以再降一点。

We could go lower.

他采取的是这种语气，而不是那种极端看空、咄咄逼人的口吻。

That's kind of the voice that he's taking as opposed to, like, a raw, horribly bearish tone.

他说的是：嘿，你得留个心眼。

He's saying, you know, just, hey, be careful.

这些东西还在，也还拿得出来，我们完全可以这么做。

This stuff's still there and available, and we could do that.

我觉得他说得对。

And I think he's right about it.

我觉得这有可能，但我并不因此彻夜难眠，也不至于慌得不行。

I I think it's a possibility, but it's not something I'm, like, losing sleep over and freaking out about as well.

是的，没错。

Yeah, exactly.

我们目前就处在这个位置。

That's where we are.

除非你有特别强的把握，否则干脆别急着押注哪一边，不如等市场自己给出方向——我知道这未必特别刺激，但事实就是如此。

It's like anybody, unless you have super high conviction, guess one way or the other, it's definitely kind of a let the market come to you type of vibe, which I know, you know, isn't always the most fun, but it kind of is what it is.

没有一点看跌的情绪，那些看涨的热闹也无从谈起，对吧？

Again, you can't have the fun bulls without a little bit of the bear, right?

这才是市场运转的常态。

That's what makes the world go around.

在结束之前说个好消息：Hyperliquid 的周活跃用户突破了二十万，这周他们正好在参与 SpaceX 的 IPO 定价，挺有意思的。

So some good news before we head out today, Hyperliquid weekly users above 200,000, an interesting week for Hyperliquid as they try to price the SpaceX IPO.

我觉得他们正好卡在那个点上。

I think they're kind of right there.

确实挺有意思的。

It's been really interesting.

传统金融圈最近一直在讨论Hyperliquid，提到它的一些不同功能。

The traditional finance channels have been talking about Hyperliquid, just kind of referencing some different features on it.

而且很明显，它最近引起了很大关注。

And obviously, it's been making a lot of noise.

这真是好事，像他们这样小的团队，我们节目里也聊过。

So good good for that, small team like we've covered on the show.

他们人不多，却在做着非常大胆的事情。

It's like they're doing wild things with a tight team there.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得Hyperliquid不会有什么问题。

And I don't think again, I don't really think Hyperliquid's going anywhere.

只要看看他们的活跃数据和增长指标，就知道他们完全领先了。

If you look at their activity metrics and their growth metrics, they are just dominating.

现在它已经是个估值数十亿美元的项目，过去几个月增长了两到三倍。

Now they're a multibillion dollar project that's run two to 300% in the last several months.

所以呢，他们肯定会有回调，但我喜欢他们，只要他们持续增长，只要活跃度、资金和用户数这些指标还在往上走，以他们现在的增速，想做空他们可不容易。

So, you know, they're gonna have pullbacks and stuff, but I like them so long as they continue to grow, so long as they're growing in activity and in money, and in users, and in all these different metrics, I think it's really hard to fade them if they're growing at the rate that they are.

这正好印证了这一点。

This just kind of backs that up.

他们现在真是干得太漂亮了。

So, yeah, they're crushing it, man.

我很看好他们。

I like them.

我这话说得有点像在给自己站台，毕竟我手里有他们的仓位。

I'm talking my bags a little bit because I got some exposure to them.

但说实话，你真挑不出他们什么毛病。

But, again, I don't think you can really argue against them.

我之所以持有他们，肯定有原因，我确实也拿了一些利润出来，卖掉了一部分，但你知道吗？

There's a reason I have exposure to them and you know, I did some profit taking and I sold some off, but guess what?

我反而想在下跌的时候再买回来。

I want to buy them on the dip.

现在我手头多了点资金，可以趁跌入场了，这让我很期待。

So now I have a little bit more capital to buy them on the dip, which I'm excited to do.

是的。

Yeah.

我们一直很喜欢做这个播客和YouTube内容，但别忘了给Bryce、你、Rohit、Brian、Joe和Hunter还有整个团队点个赞，你们早就看出了Hyperliquid的潜力。

And again, we love doing the podcast with everybody and the YouTube, but you got to give a shout out to the community of Bryce, you, Rohit, Brian, Joe, and Hunter and the entire team like and you know, Hyperliquid was something that you guys called super duper early.

如果有人听到了这个节目还不了解这个社区，别担心，简介里一直有链接，欢迎去了解一下。

And if somebody like that's listening to this isn't aware of the community, again, there's always links in the bio if you want to check it out.

我觉得我们还搞了一些美元试水。

I think we got some dollar trials.

现在正是提升自己对这个领域认知的好时机，因为波动已经来了，而波动背后往往藏着机会。

Again, this is kind of the time to be upping your education, upping your knowledge around the space, because the volatility, is here and with volatility comes opportunity.

Brendan，非常感谢你来参加这次对话。

So, Brendan, I thank you so much for joining me.

今天没能做直播，但还是感谢所有在YouTube上观看的朋友们。

We didn't get to do a live today, but appreciate everybody watching on YouTube.

如果觉得不错，记得点个赞，右下角点一下Logo并订阅。

If you give it a thumbs up, bottom right, hit the logo, and subscribe.

我们下周再回来，带来更多直播。

We'll be back next week with some more lives.

希望大家周末愉快，也别忘了今天是SpaceX上市的历史性日子，市场一定很热闹。

I hope everybody enjoys their weekend, and the SpaceX IPO launch historic day for the markets.

一如既往，非常感谢大家。

But thank you all as always.

今天就先到这里。

But that's all for today.

大家再见。

Bye bye, everybody.