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那么，你是怎么成为中情局的精神科医生的？
So so how did you become a psychiatrist for the CIA?
我被招募了。
I got recruited.
这完全出乎意料。
It was totally unexpected.
我1998年的时候在做某事，然后他们在2002年招募了我。
What I so in 1998 so I got recruited by them in 2002.
但在1997到1998年期间，我从在耶鲁大学实验室研究压力相关疾病，转到了北卡罗来纳州布拉格堡的特种作战部队中从事实地工作。
But in 1998, '97, '98, I had transitioned from studying stress related disorders in the lab at Yale to working in a field environment with the special operations community at Fort Bragg.
这让我接触到了一个全新的世界，那里的人们从事着情报工作和各种不同活动。
And that introduced me to a whole world of people working in intelligence, in the different activities.
于是，人们逐渐了解了我所从事的压力研究，他们也知道一些关于创伤后应激障碍、压力韧性与抗压能力的事情。
And so people got to know the kind of, stress research I was doing, and they knew and knew something about post traumatic stress disorder, stress resilience, stress hardiness.
简单来说，问题是：为什么当一些人遭遇严重创伤事件时，他们会生病？
Like like, the quick question is, why do some people get sick if something really bad happens to them in terms of a traumatic event?
为什么其他人不会生病？
And why do other people not get sick?
比如，他们能恢复过来，继续前行。
Like, they bounce back, they move on.
你是说心理创伤事件吗？
You mean like a psychological traumatic event?
是的。
Yeah.
对于我们称之为创伤后应激障碍的情况。
For something that we call post traumatic stress disorder.
事实上，大多数人经历创伤后并不会患上这种病，但我们一直不明白，为什么有些在战场上经历创伤的士兵在经历之后会出现症状，而其他人却没有。
And I mean, truth is most people don't get it when they're exposed to trauma, but we've never understood kind of why were some soldiers who were exposed to trauma in combat, why did they suffer from symptoms after that exposure whereas others didn't.
在九十年代初，我参与了所谓的国家创伤后应激障碍中心的工作。
And in the early nineties, I was part of what was called the National Center for PTSD.
国会我认为是在1987年设立的，但我们是在1989年正式成立的，目的是研究创伤后应激障碍的神经生物学机制，弄清楚它是否真的与抑郁、焦虑、恐慌等症状不同。
Congress created it, I think, in '87, but then we formed it in '89 to study the neurobiology of post traumatic stress to say, is it really different from depression, anxiety, panic, and things like that?
所以简而言之，我们发现了一组神经生物学因素，这些因素在经历过相同程度战斗创伤但是否患有创伤后应激障碍的人群之间存在差异。
So the long and short of it is we had discovered a number of neurobiological factors that were different in people who did and did not have PTSD even though they had the same levels of combat trauma exposure.
但由于当时没有战争，我们只能进行回顾性研究。
But since there was no war going on, we were looking at things retrospectively.
因此，我们无法确定所观察到的异常是由战争引起的，还是在战争之前就已存在，代表了一种易感性。
So we didn't know whether the abnormalities we saw in them had been caused by war, whether they predated it and represented a vulnerability Mhmm.
或者它们只是副作用。
Or whether they were just side effects.
所以，举个例子，如果你患有糖尿病，可能会出现阳痿或足部麻木的问题。
So, for example, if you have diabetes, you may have impotence problems or numb feet.
这些是血糖控制不良的副作用。
Those are side effects of poor sugar control.
对的。
Right.
它们对神经元造成的损害并不是糖尿病病理本身的一部分。
And then the damage does to neurons, but they're not part of the pathology of diabetes.
对于创伤后应激障碍，我们也面临着类似的问题。
So for PTSD, we had the same kind of questions.
于是我四处打听，因为我曾经在海军服役。
So I was poking around, and I had been in the Navy.
于是我给一个人打了电话，他把我介绍给了布拉格堡的一位上校，他说：来给我们做个关于你工作的讲座吧。
And I phoned somebody, and he connected me to a colonel over at Fort Bragg, and he said, come and give us a lecture on what you're doing.
于是我去了讲座，讲完后，他说：你能多留几天吗？
So I came into the lecture and at the end of the lecture, said, could you stay for a couple of days?
我们有一些有趣的东西要给你看。
We have something fun to show you.
这就是我第一次看到生存学校模拟战俘营的情景，那里的人正在接受行为准则训练。
And that's how it was the first time I'd ever seen the survival school sort of mock POW camp where people were doing code of conduct training.
这是SEER吗？
Is this SEER?
是的。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
关于SEER训练。
For the SEER training.
你知道，我当时想，这真的很酷，但真的有压力吗？
And, you know, I was like, this is really cool, but is it really stressful?
因为你主动报名参加了。
Because you signed up to go.
我最初进行的六项研究，持续了六个月，收集了唾液、血液样本，以及心理测试，观察人们经历整个过程。
The first series of studies I did for like six months were collecting spit, blood, psychological testing, and people going through.
简而言之，这是我们在可控条件下测量到的人类最高压力水平之一，这非常好。
And the long and short, it was some of the highest stress we've been able to measure in controlled ways in humans, which is really good.
例如，在审讯压力期间，皮质醇的上升水平，与我老板曾测量过的飞行员首次夜间在航空母舰上着陆时的水平相当。
So for example, during the interrogation stress, the levels of cortisol that go up are equal to those that my boss had measured in pilots landing on an aircraft carrier at night for the first time.
哇哦。
Woah.
因此，我们能够在受控环境中观察神经激素的反应，从而对这些发现如何应用于现实世界做出一些推断。
So we were able to get to see in a controlled setting, it's like neurohormone responding, to be able to make some inferences about how things might apply in the real world.
这演变成了一系列研究，我开始与来自情报界不同部门的人互动，纯粹是因为场合——我当时与在三角洲部队和海军特种作战部队的人合作。
So that turned into a series of studies, and I began to interact with people who came from different parts of the intelligence community just because of the venue, because I was working with guys who were over at Delta and people in the special operations community with the Navy.
于是我开始认识了许多人，并结识了一些来自中情局的人。
So I started getting to know a bunch of people, and I met people from the CIA.
他们说：‘你为什么不来为我们工作呢？’
And they said, why don't you come work for us?
我当时说：‘不了。’
And I was like, no.
我有份日常工作。
I got a day job.
我挺好的。
I'm fine.
2002年，一位同事给我打了电话，他正在运作一个叫VITMAC的单位，即VIP医学情报分析中心。
And in 2002, one fellow called me, and he had a unit going that was called VITMAC or the VIP Medical Intelligence Analysis Center.
莱斯给我打电话，问我是否愿意去为他工作？
And Les called me and said, would you come and work for me?
我当时想，这听起来挺有意思的，因为我本身也是一名法医精神病学家。
And I thought, now that sounds interesting because I I'm also a forensic psychiatrist.
所以我习惯于评估他人，然后在法庭上陈述或作证。
So I'm used to evaluating people and then presenting things in court or testifying.
而这份工作主要是分析世界领导人的行为特征，进行评估，并向国会成员或白宫官员提交报告，让他们了解某个人。
And that job was mainly looking at sort of profiling world leaders and then assessing that and making presentations either for people in congress or people at the White House who wanted to know about a person.
例如，如果某个已知的世界领导人患有帕金森病，那么我的任务就是描述他。
So for example, if an identified world leader had Parkinson's, right, you it would be my job to describe him.
这是他的表现情况。
Here's what it looks like.
这是为什么你最好在早上见他的原因。
Here's why you wanna meet with him in the morning.
如果他行为异常，并不是因为他不喜欢你。
If he's if he's behaving in a strange way, it's not because he doesn't like you.
这是因为这是疾病的一部分。
It's because it's part of an illness.
所以大家都觉得这特别酷，确实有一部分是这样，但核心在于帮助政府人员从心理或医学角度理解他们即将会见的重要人物。
So it's it's everybody thinks it's super sexy, and part of it was, but the the core of it was helping people in government understand from a psych perspective or a medical perspective the important people they were gonna be meeting.
因为不同的世界领导人可能有不同的问题。
Because different world leaders may have different kinds of problems.
对吧？
Right?
有些人可能患有焦虑、抑郁或其他问题。
Some may suffer from anxiety or depression or whatever.
而且
And
所以，在外交官们远赴世界各地会见他人之前，你会根据他们的最新视频片段进行评估吗？
So like before diplomats would travel across the world to meet people, you would give do an evaluation on, like, recent footage of them or something?
他们可能会给你提供视频片段。
They might give you footage.
你可能需要自己做研究去弄清楚。
You might have to do your own research and find out.
所以这一直是工作中最难的部分。
And so that was always the hardest part in the job.
对吧？
Right?
你能获得哪些数据，以便做出一个相对有依据的精神或医学判断？
What data can you get in order to make a reasonably informed sort of psychiatric or medical opinion?
所以这份工作很有趣，因为这是一个挑战。
So it was a fun job because that was a challenge.
所以，是的，这份工作的秘密部分在于，我们是如何获取所有这些信息的，但这份工作的公开目的实际上是让我们的政府官员更聪明，以便他们知道如何最好地与对方互动。
So, yeah, the secret part of the job was, you know, how we got all that information, but the these overt purpose of the job was to actually, make, our government officials smarter so they'd know how best to interact with the person for that.
你们还会因为哪些其他原因对世界领导人进行这种法医分析？
What other sorts of, reasons would you do this sort of forensic analysis on on world leaders?
只是为了外交会面吗？还是有其他战略原因会让你们做这种分析？
Only for, like, diplomatic meetings, or were there were there any other strategic, reasons you would be doing this?
你可以出于多种原因进行这类分析。
You can do them for a number of reasons.
当我为国防部工作时，经常会遇到这种情况，他们会说：这里有个人。
When I when I did them for the Department of Defense, like, used to do some where they'd say, here's a guy.
他寄来了一封信，说他感染了炭疽病。
He sent this letter in saying I have anthrax.
这就是我要做的事。
This is what I'm gonna do.
他疯了吗？
Like, is he crazy?
你可以观看所有视频，然后发现，这确实像是一种真正的精神障碍。
And you get to watch all the videos and kinda go, it does look like a real mental disorder.
这些是症状特征，或者看起来像这样，或者与我们对精神疾病的认知不一致。
These are the features, or it looks like this, or it's not consistent with what we know about a mental illness.
所以这可能与目标锁定和画像有关。
So it might be related to targeting and profiling.
所以人们可能会问，你对这个恐怖组织的头目有什么看法？
So for people could say, what do you think of this leader of a terrorist group?
他为什么会这样行为？
Why does he behave that way?
而且，你知道，部分人倾向于持保守观点，认为这可能是正常行为。
And, you know, in part, tend to be on the more conservative side of saying, it's probably normal behavior.
不是所有行为都是疾病。
Not everything is illness.
但偶尔，你确实会看到一些行为特征，让你觉得这超出了人们通常的正常范围。
But every now and then, you do see features in behavior where you say that's kind of beyond the norm, the normal range that you see in people.
然后你会给他们一个机会，从不同的角度去看待这个人。
And then you give them an opportunity to view the person from a different perspective.
我过去曾为执法部门做过这类工作，这是警察审讯人员时工作的一部分。
I used to do it for the for law enforcement, part of the part of the job when police interrogate people.
你应该能坐在单向镜后面，然后他们过来问：你觉得这个人怎么样？
You should be able to sit behind a one way mirror, then they come and say, what do you think of the guy?
你可以说，我觉得他很抑郁。
And you can say, I think he's depressed.
他们觉得他是个超级间谍。
They think he's super spy.
我觉得他有点蠢，而且我觉得他很抑郁。
I'm like, I think he's kinda dumb, and I think he's depressed.
但你知道，从医学角度来看，我们总是在想可能的医学解释、精神科解释之类的东西。
But because, you know, when you're from a medical perspective, we're thinking of a possible medical explanations or psychiatric explanations or something.
当一个人是警察或情报人员时，他们总是想着，你试图
When someone's a police officer or an intelligence officer, they're always thinking, you're trying
骗我。
to lie to me.
多疑。
Paranoid.
你试图愚弄我。
You're trying to fool me.
所以这是一种稍微退后一步的方式，试着从这个角度来理解他？
So it's a way of pulling back a little bit and saying, how about if you think about him from this perspective?
这能让我们对他的行为有其他新的洞察，或者帮助我们影响或缓解它吗？
Does it give us any other insight into his behavior and how we might influence it or mitigate it?
嗯哼。
Mhmm.
是的。
Yeah.
所以这就是你被招募进中情局之前一直在做的事情吗？
So this is the kind of stuff you were doing before you got recruited to CIA?
对。
Yeah.
我之前是为能源部做的。
I was doing that for DOE.
被招募进中情局的过程是怎样的？
What was the process like being recruited for the CIA?
你入职CIA时，也经历了所有那些典型的测试吗？
Did you have to go through all the typical stuff tests that the the, like, CIA officers go through?
是的。
Yeah.
嗯，因为有不同的岗位。
Well, so there's different roles.
由于我入职时就是作为文职人员，所以我必须通过所有的筛选、面试和安全审查。
And since I was getting recruited in already as a doc, I had to go through all the screenings and interviews and security evaluations.
是的。
Yeah.
而在我的职位上，我并没有加入秘密行动部门。
And then in my position, I was not joining the clandestine community
对。
Right.
因为我是公众人物。
Because I'm recognizable.
我已经处于职业生涯中期，所以我不可能是个没人认识的人，因此我什么都没做。
I'm already mid career, so I'm not gonna be somebody that nobody knows So on the I didn't do anything.
当人们说他们去农场学习
When people say they went to the farm or they learn
嗯。
Mhmm.
如何扮演卧底或秘密人员时。
How to be an undercover or clandestine person.
但没错，我确实经历了所有的筛选和面试。
But, yeah, I had to go through all the screening and the interviewing.
这还挺有趣的，因为我接受了心理专家的面谈，当然，用的是同样的测试。
It was kind of fun because I get interviewed by psychs, of course, I use the same testing.
我想你做这件事的时候，我的朋友约翰·卡里亚科，一位前中情局特工，他在巴基斯坦抓捕了阿布·扎贝达，也就是本·拉登的IT人员。
Now I think you were in you were doing this around the same time, my friend John Kariakou, who's a former CIA officer who was in Pakistan, he captured Abu Zabeda, who was Bin Laden's, like, IT guy.
我想他那时也在，他当时在巴基斯坦，时间应该差不多。
I think he there was around the same time he was in, and he but he was in he would have been in Pakistan around the same time.
是的。
Yeah.
他跟我描述过，中情局想要招募的人通常是那些处于反社会人格边缘、但又不完全是完全反社会人格的人。
And he just described to me that the MO of people that the CIA wants to recruit are people that are on, like, the borderline of sociopathy, but not quite full sociopaths.
你可以这么理解。
That's one way you could put it.
对吧？
Right?
如果你想要从事情报工作，你的目标就是获取信息。
If if you're trying to so the business in in intelligence is you want information.
所以你需要的是人员部署和接触渠道。
You so you need you need either placement and access.
如果你自己无法进入，那我们就希望你找到一个能进入并且愿意违法的人。
So if you can't get there, then we want you to find somebody who can and someone who's willing to break the law.
间谍就是愿意背叛自己国家、为我们效力的外国公民。
A spy is a foreign national who's willing to commit treason in their country to help us.
对。
Right.
所以当你说到我们想要那种有点偏向反社会人格的人时，这是一种说法。
So when you say we want somebody who's a bit on the sociopathy end, it's one way to phrase it.
我会说，那是一个愿意违法的人。
I'd say it's it's a person who's willing to break the law.
嗯。
Mhmm.
或者愿意为实现目标而冒险的人。
Or willing to take a risk to achieve a goal.
对有些人来说，他们可能太过紧张、焦虑，无法很好地胜任被招募的角色，没错。
So for some people, they may be just too high strung, nervous, and anxious to to function well as someone that you've recruited Sure.
因为他们会说：我愿意干。
Because they go, I'll do it.
我愿意干。
I'll do it.
但每次你给他们施加压力时，他们真的会彻底崩溃。
But every time you put them under stress, they really actually have a meltdown.
因为他们虽然说自己很有信心，但实际上焦虑得太厉害了。
Because they're they'll say that they're confident, but they have too much anxiety.
另一些人则圆滑冷静，带有反社会特质，他们会说‘我愿意为你做’，但他们同时也在和每个人做交易。
You have other people who are slick and cool and on that sociopathy and who say, I'll do it for you, but they're also making a deal with everybody else.
对吧？
Right?
所以，如果他们对别人撒谎，那很可能也对你撒谎。
So, you know, if they're lying to them, they're probably lying to you as well.
因此，在这个世界上，你会看到各种各样的人，有些人声称自己做这件事是出于正当理由，比如想让美国帮他们的家人离开某个国家，或者因为他们认同某种理念，又或者只是为了赚钱。
So I think in that world, you do see a range from people who they believe they wanna do something for the right reason, like to have The US get their family out of a country or because they believe in the principle or because they wanna make money.
间谍是拿报酬的。
Spies get paid.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Right.
所以我认为我不会不同意他对它的评价。
So I think you I wouldn't disagree with his assessment of it.
我只是说，被招募的人范围可能更广，那些是外国国民；但如果你是美国公民，并且从事像我这样的工作，他们早就已经在招募你了，比如我是一名医生，且已获得认证，我已经干了很长时间。
I would just say there's probably a wider a wider range of people that get recruited, and those are the foreign nationals in but if you're a US citizen and you're going into, like, the line of work I was in, they're already recruiting for me like a doc, and I'm board certified, so I've been doing it for a long time.
而且
And
你不是在招募间谍，而是把自己包装得很好。
You're not recruiting spies, pretty yourself.
我们可能会被要求去评估他们。
You're you're We might be we might be asked to evaluate them.
是的。
Right.
我雇的是什么样的人？
What kind of a person have I hired?
对吧？
Right?
对。
Right.
所以我有一些同事，他们的主要工作就是如此，情报官员可以向他们咨询，比如：‘你能帮我管理我招募的那个人吗？他说他想帮助美国。’
So I had colleagues who that was their main line of work, which so a case officer could consult with them and say, what can you help me manage this person that I've recruited who says they wanna help The US?
所以我觉得这就像在惩教部门工作一样。
And so it's I think of it like working in the Department of Corrections.
我当住院医师时，曾兼职做过这份工作。
I used I did that as a moonlighting job when I was a resident.
哦，真的吗？
Oh, really?
是的。
Yeah.
就是你在监狱环境中从事精神科工作，面对那些有暴力行为的人。
Where, you know, you're practicing psych in a prison setting with people who've been violent.
有些人杀人，有些人是性犯罪者。
Some people murder people, some people are sex offenders.
你在做医疗工作。
You're doing medical work.
你在做精神科工作。
You're doing psychiatry.
你只是在一个非常不寻常的环境中工作。
You're just doing it in a highly unusual environment.
所以你必须接受培训，学会如何不协助囚犯越狱，或者如何不被利用。
So you have to have training on how not to facilitate someone's escape from the prison, right, or how not to get used.
同样地，如果你作为一名医生进入中情局，你仍然在实践你作为医生所学的内容，但你可能只是在非常不寻常的环境中工作，嗯。
In the same way in the if you go to the CIA as a doctor, you're still practicing what you learned as a doctor, but you may be doing it in just very unusual environments Mhmm.
为了这个目的。
For that.
但当我在那里时，很多人对这一点有误解。
But lots of people had misconceptions about that when I was there.
所以我以前经常收到很多仇恨邮件。
So I used to get a lot of hate mail.
有哪些误解呢？
What kind of misconceptions?
哦，很多人认为你就是间谍。
Oh, well, lots of people think that you are the spy.
就是说，你应该是去获取情报或利用别人的人。
Like, you're the one who's supposed to be going and getting things or exploiting people.
而且，我认为这和当时在情报机构内展开的一场重大争论发生在同一时期，因为那时强化审讯项目正在实施。
And, and I think that was around the same amount that was around the same time when at the agency, there was a big debate because that's when the enhanced interrogation program was going on.
那是约翰·卡里奥卡，他能做的那件事持续了很久。
That was John Kariocca, the thing he could do was long.
在我们医生群体中，存在着真正的分歧，有人认为这是不道德的。
And there was a real divide in our community of physicians, like, saying, we think it's unethical.
你不能参与其中。
You can't be involved in it.
还有另一群人认为，他们可以参与。
And there was another group we thought, no, they could.
现在，你知道，二十多年过去了，我们可以看到，当你折磨人时，会破坏我们起诉他们的能力。
And now, you know, more than twenty years later, we can see that, you know, sort of when you torture people, it ruins our ability to prosecute them.
所以，比如关塔那摩湾最近的裁决，法官麦卡尔回应说，不能使用通过酷刑获得的供词。
So, like, the recent ruling in Guantanamo Bay, you know, judge McCall said, you can't use confessions that have been elicited under torture.
所以因为
So because
你不能这么做，因为如果你在某人面前折磨他们的孩子，他们会说出你想要的任何话。
you don't because people will if you're torturing somebody's child in front of them, they're gonna they're gonna they'll say whatever you want them to say.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Right.
我的意思是，如果你仔细想想，作为政治工具的酷刑对独裁者来说可能非常有用。
I mean, if you think about it, torture as a political tool might be very useful for a dictator.
对吧？
Right?
你可以吓唬你的对手。
You can you can scare your opposition.
你可以，是的。
You can Yeah.
你可以让人害怕你。
You can make people frightened of you.
你可能从人们那里获得一些信息。
You can probably get some information from people.
但作为情报收集手段，一旦人们意识到你不会杀他们，或者你其实没什么筹码，就没什么用了。
But as an intelligence gathering technique, once people figure out you're not gonna kill them, or that they then you have no hand, really.
我最近收到了我们的赞助商明尼苏达友善民族植物学公司寄来的精美毒蝇伞，这是美国顶级供应商。
I was recently sent some gorgeous Amanita Mascaria by our sponsor Minnesota Nice Ethnobotanicals, the top supplier in The US.
我必须说，它对我的焦虑缓解效果惊人。
And I have to say, what it does for my anxiety is incredible.
但它的作用远不止缓解压力。
But there's much more than just stress relief.
由于具有非成瘾性并作用于大脑的GABA受体，它有助于逐步戒断苯二氮䓬类药物和酒精。
Being non addictive and interacting with the brain's GABA receptors, this assists with tapering off of benzodiazepines and alcohol.
压力和焦虑使人更容易复吸成瘾。
Stress and anxiety make it easy to slip back into addiction.
因此，成千上万的人正在转向来自明尼苏达优质公司的Amentara Muscaria。
That's why thousands are turning to Amentara Muscaria from Minnesota Nice.
它并不是万能药。
It's not a magic bullet.
真正的康复需要社群和支持，但这种蘑菇几个世纪以来一直被用于促进放松、改善睡眠，甚至增强梦境。
Real recovery takes community and support, but this mushroom has been used for centuries to promote relaxation, improve sleep, and even enhance dreams.
他们的创始人克里斯蒂安·拉斯穆森曾用Amentara克服自己的戒断反应，并创立了明尼苏达优质公司，让天然疗愈变得可及且负担得起。
Their founder Christian Rasmussen used Amentara to overcome his own withdrawal and built Minnesota NICE to make natural healing accessible and affordable.
他们的胶囊在一小时内起效，持续六到八小时，价格仅为药物的一小部分。
Their capsules kick in within an hour and last six to eight hours and cost a fraction of pharmaceuticals.
而且这还不只是Amentara。
And it's not just Amentara.
他们还有蓝睡莲软糖。
They've got Blue Lotus gummies.
是的，蓝睡莲做成的软糖。
Yes, Blue Lotus in a gummy.
Rishi蘑菇，用于助眠等功效。
Rishi mushrooms for sleep and more.
此外，他们还回馈社会，比如向真菌基金会捐赠了12,000美元，并与Brain Mechanics合作开展研究。
Plus they give back, like donating $12,000 to the Fungi Foundation and leading research with Brain Mechanics.
这正是我喜欢支持的公司。
This is the kind of company I like to get behind.
试试这种古老与现代技术的奇妙结合。
Try this incredible blend of ancient and modern technology.
Minnesota Nice希望借助我专属的优惠，帮助你找到内心的和谐。
And Minnesota Nice wants to help you find harmony with my exclusive offer.
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Go to mnniceethno.com/dj, and use the code d j 22 for 22% off your first order.
访问 mnniceethno.com/dj，使用我的代码 dj22 享受首单 22% 折扣。
That's mnniceethno.com/dj, and use my code d j 22 for 22% off your first order.
你是否
Are you
是的。
and Yeah.
有一位中央情报局的心理学家，住在离这里大约一小时的地方。
There was a there was a CIA psychologist who lives like an hour from
这里，是的。
here Yeah.
他是整个项目的负责人之一。
Who was one of the guys or the architects of that whole program.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为他们靠这个赚了数千万美元。
I think they made they made like tens of millions of dollars for that.
我忘记那个人的名字了。
I forget the guy's name.
我想说是米切尔，某种叫米切尔的人。
I want to say Mitchell, something Mitchell.
是的。
Yeah.
吉姆·米切尔。
Jim Mitchell.
吉姆·米切尔？
Jim Mitchell?
是的。
Yeah.
我认识他。
I knew him.
是的。
Yeah.
布鲁斯·贾斯汀和吉姆·米切尔。
Bruce Justin and Jim Mitchell.
是的。
Yes.
我认识他们两个。
And I knew them both.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
那整个事情都太疯狂了。
That's, that whole thing was crazy.
你知道，那个加强审讯的事情。
You know, the the enhanced interrogation stuff.
他们做的就是，我认为他们到处都有黑狱，对吧？
And they what they did was I believe they had black sites all over the place, right?
他们就在那里做这些事。
Where they were they were doing this stuff.
但我的观点是，你知道，我想象 torture 在某种程度上肯定是有效的。
But my thing is like, you know, it's got I imagine torture's gotta work to an extent.
对吧？
Right?
如果你不过分，比如，这肯定是必要的，否则你怎么能从那些隐瞒信息的人那里得到答案呢？你得在某种程度上施压才能让他们开口。
If you don't go too far, like, that's gotta be like, how else are gonna get answers for people if they're gonna be if they're gonna hold back and you gotta you gotta hold their feet to the fire to some degree to get to get
但有趣的是，从二战以来，大多数有经验的审讯人员都说：不行。
That's the really interesting part, though, historically, like from World War two and on most seasoned interrogators have said, no.
你不能这么做。
You don't.
你做不到。
You can't.
是的。
Yeah.
你需要与人长期打交道。
You work with people over time.
他们逐渐了解对方，人们就会开始向你透露信息。
They get to know them, and people begin to tell you things.
我的意思是，我认为这个项目运行中的困境在于，人们从未能够说：‘我们从折磨任何人身上学到了什么？’
I mean, the dilemma, I think, with it in the program as it ran is that people were never able to say, well, what did we learn from torturing anybody?
我的意思是，我过去常对人们说，艾伦·德肖维茨曾经说过，签一份刑讯许可证，对吧？当人们争论这是好事还是坏事的时候。
I mean, I used to tell people like, Alan Dershowitz once said, get a torture warrant, right, when people are arguing over, was this a good thing to do or a bad thing to do?
刑讯许可证。
A torture warrant.
是的。
Yeah.
直接申请一个刑讯许可证就行了。
Just get a warrant to torture people.
你还不如承认吧，因为人们都在想，哦，这不算刑讯。
You might as well admit it because people were kinda going, oh, it's not torture.
大家都清楚那其实就是刑讯。
Everybody knows it was.
不。
No.
他说，你看。
And he said, look.
如果我们真要这么做，那就去申请吧。
If that's what we're gonna do, get it.
我过去常对同事们说，那就把数据展示给人们看吧。
And I used to tell my colleagues, I said, well, then show people the data.
我们从威胁杀人或刑讯中得到了什么，对吧？
What did we learn from threatening to kill people, right, or torturing people?
然后公众需要思考这个问题，并问：你希望你的政府这么做吗？
And then the public needs to think about that and say, do you want your government doing?
但在情报收集的世界里，无论是汉斯·席夫的工作，还是我一时想不起名字的那位在南太平洋工作的美国审讯者。
But in the world of intelligence gathering, whether it's Hans Schiff's work, And I'm blanking on the The US interrogator who worked in the South Pacific.
汉斯·席夫是谁？
Who's Hans Schiff?
他是一名德国情报官员，曾经审讯战俘，并从美国人那里获取了大量情报。
He was a German intelligence officer who used to interview POWs and get lots of intelligence from from Americans.
另一位先生，我一时想不起他的名字，但过会儿会想起来的。
The other fellow, I'm blanking on his name, but it'll come back.
但这些研究确实表明，当你与人建立融洽关系时，长期来看，通过更温和的方式反而能获得更多信息。
But the work really suggests that when you create a rapport with people, you actually learn more from kind of a softer approach over time.
我认为每个人心中都有一种幻想：突然出现一个倒计时的炸弹，你必须在几小时内知道某些会杀死大量人的信息，所以我们必须不择手段让你立刻说出来。
I think the fantasy that everybody has is that there's a ticking time bomb that suddenly, like, you must know something that's gonna kill a bunch of people in a matter of hours, so we need to do anything we can to get you to tell us, you know, right now.
但事实并非如此。
But it doesn't turn out to be true.
这些信息大多很快就会过时。
Most of that information's pretty perishable.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
所以是的。
So yeah.
那真是一个令人失望的状况。
So that was a disappointing that was a disappointing thing.
我想，考虑到我们在战争相关领域投入了如此多的资金和研究，我们如今应该已经拥有更先进的技术与人工智能手段，能够更好地提取人们脑海中的信息。
Well, I would imagine that with all the money that we and and research that we put into stuff, like when it comes to war, that we would have had a I mean, I imagine by now, we have a much better way with technology and AI to extract information in people's heads.
或者只是引发创伤。
Or just getting into trauma.
我的意思是，记得吧，是的。
Mean, remember well, yeah.
我的意思是，这正是我过去常说的。
I mean, that's what I used to say.
所以试图通过水刑来获取某人的信息，比如把他们裹在塑料布里拖来拖去，放上巨大的冰块，直到他们死去——这种事情确实发生过。
So trying to get intelligent of somebody by like waterboarding, they were dragging them around wrapped in plastic with giant ice cubes until they die, which happened.
这就像用大锤敲打收音机，说：‘信号怎么还不清楚点。’
It was like, man, that's like banging on the radio with a sledgehammer saying, the reception's gotta come in better.
对吧？
Right?
在我的大部分工作中，我和加里·哈泽特证明了，仅仅增加压力就会迅速削弱认知功能和记忆力，这意味着你不仅没有获得有用的信息，反而正在破坏你依赖的、本应提供信息的大脑器官。
And like in most of my work, me and Gary Hazlett were able to show just raising stress degrades cognitive function really fast and memory so that you're not only you're changing the very organ that you're relying on to provide you the information that you think is gonna be helpful.
对。
Right.
所以这对我来说从来就没有意义。
So it never made never made sense to me.
但如果你回想一下，当时为了情报收集，我们所有人还在争论伊拉克有没有大规模杀伤性武器，比如汉斯·布利克那时候。
But, I mean, if you think back, it was you know, for intelligence gathering, I mean, Hans Blick's when we were all arguing over, was the WMD in Iraq?
他说，没有。
And he's like, no.
根本就没有。
There's none.
后来才发现，你知道的，那个曲线球忙着向一群人兜售他的故事，说萨达姆·侯赛因正在做这些事。
And then turns out later, you know, we know that curve ball was busy selling his story to a bunch of people going, this is what Saddam Hussein's doing.
但事实上，我认为，如果你系统地利用大量开源信息，也许人工智能方法还能做得更好，你很可能就能对正在发生的事情有一个相当准确的了解，而不是认为只有单一信息源才知道真相。
But there really So I think think it's true that if you're systematic with a lot of open source information and maybe the AI approaches will even be better, you probably can get a pretty good picture of what's going on rather than saying it's only one one single source who knows it.
可能有些特殊情况下，嗯。
There's probably some unique situations where Mhmm.
确实可能有一个人掌握着别人不知道的信息。
You know, a single person might be the holder of knowledge nobody else has.
但如果真是这样，那他们也知道，如果你真需要信息，你不会杀了他们。
But if if that's the case, then they know you're not gonna you're not gonna kill them if you need it.
对吧？
Right?
对。
Right.
所以就像你现在听到的那些故事，说他们不得不对哈立德·谢赫·穆罕默德进行超过一百次的水刑。
So it's like the stories you hear now about having to waterboard Khalid Sheikh Mohammed over a 100 times.
对吧？
Right?
你知道，就像嗯。
You know, like Mhmm.
所以这是一种系统性的溺水方式。
So it's, you know, it's it's sort of systematic drowning.
我认为一旦他意识到他们不会杀他的话。
And I think once he figured out they weren't gonna kill him.
对。
Right.
是的。
Yeah.
最近关于他的新闻是什么？最后怎么处理的？
What ended the what was the recent story that came out with him?
他们最终打算怎么处理他？
What what did they end up doing?
他们不会起诉他。
They're they're they're not gonna prosecute him.
是这样吗？
Is that right?
我还不知道。
I don't know yet.
我知道他和另外几个人达成了认罪协议，嗯。
I know that he and a few others put in a plea agreement Mhmm.
当时这个协议是摆在桌面上的。
And that it was on the table then.
我认为国防部长否决了它，但后来法官裁定他无权否决。
I think the secretary of events invalidated it, but then a judge ruled that he couldn't invalidate it.
天哪。
Oh my god.
所以我觉得我们正在等待，看这件事最终会如何收场。
So I think we're waiting waiting to see, where that's gonna settle out.
嗯。
Mhmm.
是的。
Yeah.
但你知道，就像那个被诊断出创伤性脑损伤的人。
But, you know, it's like the fellow where they gave him a TBI.
那个家伙涉及了煤矿爆炸案。
The guy was involved in the coal bombing.
你知道，他因为精神失常而无法受审。
You know, he can't go to trial because he's incompetent.
真的吗？
Really?
是的。
Yeah.
所以我认为这就是……的缺点。
So I think that's the that's the disadvantage of
联邦上诉法院推翻了认罪协议，该协议原本允许涉嫌九一一事件主谋的哈立德·谢赫·穆罕默德通过认罪换取终身监禁且不得假释的刑罚。
Federal appeals court's thrown out the plea deal, that would have allowed Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the alleged mastermind of the nine eleven text, to plead guilty in exchange for his life sentence without possibility of parole.
所以他们否决了这项协议。
And so they invalidate it.
那么，他们将重新讨论是否可以进行审判。
So then it'll go back to the table about whether or not, they can have a trial.
比如，我去年五月曾去那里作证。
Like, the I had to testify down there, but it's last so last year ago in May.
是的，那项研究涉及压力对人的影响，当时法官正思考在压力下会发生什么。
Yeah, which is on all the stress research, and that's when the judge was trying to think about what happens, under stress.
即使没有对人实施酷刑，你还能采信供词吗？
And can you take a confession even if it was given while somebody wasn't torturing the person.
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所以整个问题在于，你把他们带回他们曾经被酷刑的同一个房间。
And so the whole issue there was you take them back to the same room that they were tortured in.
哦，天哪。
Oh, wow.
哇。
Wow.
所以是的。
So yeah.
因此，这是一个很有趣的案件，因为从科学角度来看，我们知道这说得通。
So it was an interesting case to testify in because from a science standpoint, we know this makes sense.
我们称之为情境条件反射。
We call that contextual conditioning.
我们可以进行恐惧条件反射，让你对这个咖啡杯产生恐惧，对吧？或者对刺激物产生恐惧反应。
We can do fear conditioning and make you afraid of this coffee cup, right, or the stimulus, the fear of response.
但我们知道，你的大脑不仅会学到这个东西是坏的，比如这个咖啡杯可能是坏的或危险的，还会学到，哦，我们身处这个房间。
But we know that your brain not only learns that this is bad, that the coffee cup might be bad or dangerous, then it also learns, oh, it's this room we're in.
所以你的大脑正在对环境和特定刺激进行恐惧条件反射。
And so your brain is doing fear conditioning to the context and to the specific stimulus.
因此，当时政府的论点是，既然在那人认罪时我们并没有对他施加酷刑，那他的供述一定是自愿的。
So it so the argument the government had been making at the time was, well, since we weren't torturing him at the time the guy confessed, it had to be it had to be a voluntary confession.
从科学角度来看，这毫无道理。
And from a science standpoint, makes no sense.
如果你把一个人带回类似他曾经被虐待的环境，而他仍然知道这些都是政府的人，并且他曾经被酷刑对待过，那么认为他心里没有想着酷刑是不合理的。
If you've taken somebody back to kind of the similar environment they were in and they still know these are all people from the government and you've tortured them, it wouldn't be reasonable to think that they haven't got torture on their mind
嗯。
Mhmm.
从条件反射的角度来看。
From a conditioning response.
所以是的。
So the yeah.
所以法官说，不行。
So the judge said, no.
不能使用在这些情境下获得的供词。
Can't use confessions that have been tamed under those contexts.
所以我认为这意味着我们将重新转向推动审判。
So I'm assuming then that means that we'll all move back to pushing for a trial.
是的。
Yeah.
但这太惊人了。
But it's amazing.
对吧？
Right?
你知道，这都已经是2025年了。
You know, this is like 2025.
这太疯狂了。
That's insane.
而人们还沉浸在2003年的时候。
And people were wrapped up in 2003.
所以我们仍然没有进行任何审判。
So and we still have no trials.
你去过关塔那摩吗？
Have you ever visited Gitmo?
我去过。
I have.
我去过。
I've yeah.
我下去过两次。
I've been down there twice.
是的。
Yeah.
在采访人吗？
Interviewing people?
没有。
No.
我下去那里是为了参观一些地点，后来又下去作证。
I was down there to see some of the sites, and then I was down there to testify.
哦，天哪。
Oh, wow.
是的。
Yeah.
那是什么感觉？
What was that like?
那非常强烈。
It was intense.
你知道，那个地方就像一座巨大的监狱。
It's you know, the place is like a giant prison.
我的意思是，一个郊区。
I mean, a suburb.
所以我住在一间像冰箱一样的法庭里，天啊。
So I lived in a in a courtroom that felt like living in a refrigerator Oh, damn.
一周。
Week.
是的，那里管控得非常严格。
Yeah, it's really tightly controlled.
我的意思是，你飞过去后，他们会安排你住下，然后你就只能去那里，到处都是围栏和铁丝网。
So, I mean, you fly in, they put you somewhere to stay, and then you go There's just like fences, barbed wire.
就像一座巨大的监狱。
It's like a giant prison.
你能去的最自由的地方就是那三家餐厅或健身房中的一个。
The most liberal place you can go to is one of the three restaurants or the gym.
哦，天哪。
Oh, wow.
而且你还能自由地去任何地方。
And you have the freedom to go anywhere.
所以我能理解为什么没人真的喜欢被派驻在那里。
So I can see why nobody may really enjoy being stationed there.
对。
Right.
但确实很奇怪。
But, yeah, it's strange.
我觉得这是一段非常奇怪的经历。
I found it a very strange experience.
是的。
Yeah.
所以当你为该机构工作时，你通常处理哪些类型的案件呢？无论是特工还是招募的间谍。
So when you were, when you were working for the agency, what were were some of, like, the most common cases you were working on with people?
无论是行动官员还是招募的特工。
Whether it be case officers or whether it be, like, recruited agents.
你通常遇到哪些常见的问题，心理方面的问题？
What what what were some of the common, like, issues, psychological issues?
或者
Or
在那些我待在那个特定部门的最初几年里，主要接触的都是与政府高层有关的人员。
Well, in those in those first years when I was in that particular unit, it was mainly people of interest related to higher levels of government.
对。
Right.
对。
Right.
后来我调到了人们所说的‘立方体部门’，也就是科学与技术总监办公室，主要在首席科学家办公室负责我们的测谎项目。
And then I I moved to the sort of what people call the cube branch or director of science and technology and mainly worked in in the office of the chief scientist on our detecting deception program.
所以我的大部分
And so most of my
测谎项目？
work Detecting deception program?
是的。
Yeah.
因此，在我待在那里最后五年里的大部分工作，都是在研究这些声称能成功识破欺骗的方法究竟有多准确，以及我们如何知道它们有效。
So most of my, most of my work in the the last five years I was there was really looking at this question of how accurate are any of these methodologies that purport to be successful at detecting deception, and how do we know they work?
当时，我与我的团队进行了更多调查，并建立了多个实验室。
And at the time, the more I investigated it with my team and we created a set up different labs.
我负责审查政府资助的协议，以验证这些技术是否有效。
And I was in charge of reviewing the protocols that the government would fund to say show us if this technology works.
对吧？
Right?
因此，我的工作是前往各个现场，因为我做过大量人体研究，可以判断研究是否有效。
And so my job was to go to the sites because I've done a lot of human studies, and we'd be able to see is is the study valid?
这项技术是否有效？
Does the tech work?
诸如此类的问题。
And things like that.
总而言之，大多数被宣传的技术其实根本不太有效，无论是语音压力分析仪、传统测谎仪还是脑部扫描，所有人都想让你的税款买单，对吧？
And the long and short of this, most of what was being advertised doesn't really work that well at all, whether it's a voice stress analyzer or a traditional version of a polygraph or brain scans, where everybody wants your tax dollars, right?
他们希望政府购买他们的产品。
They want the government to buy their products.
承包商？
Contractors?
是的。
Yeah.
所以我不知道你是否听说过PCAST，那种便携式可信度评估设备，号称是手持式小型测谎仪。
So I don't know if you've heard of the PCAST, that portable credibility assessment, supposed to be a handheld little polygraph.
它们价格昂贵，但从来不像那种E计数器一样的东西吗？
They cost a lot and they never Like a e meter type thing?
几乎像是心理学？
Almost looks psychology?
它几乎看起来像E计数器。
It almost looks like an e meter.
是的。
Yeah.
它有一个红灯、一个绿灯和一个黄灯。
It has a red light, a green light, and a yellow light.
它本应简化这一理念，但其实与测谎仪属于同一种思路。
And it was supposed to sort of streamline this idea, but it's linked to the same idea as the polygraph.
对吧？
Right?
说谎会让你感到紧张。
That lying makes you alarmed.
而任何能检测到你恐惧和警觉系统激活的技术，就被认为能判断你在撒谎。
And that by using any technology that sees an activation of your fear and alarm system, that must mean you're lying.
但我觉得这个前提是有问题的，因为如果你身处战区，想来向美国提供信息，而你知道如果透露这些信息别人会杀了你，那你肯定会比那些说‘我编个故事看看他们会不会给我钱’的人更紧张。
And I'm like, well, I think the premise is flawed because if you're in a war zone and you wanna come and tell The US something and you know that other people will kill you for telling us something, you're gonna be more nervous than the person who goes, I think I'll go tell them a story, see if they give me some money.
所以情报界中的谎言更多是编造型的谎言。
So the the lies in the intelligence world are more along the lines of lies of fabrication.
比如，我知道一些你应该知道的事，你付钱，我就告诉你。
Like, I know something you should know, so pay me, and I'll and I'll tell you.
嗯。
Mhmm.
这与警察常遇到的常见谎言不同，比如‘我不知道’。
Which is different than the common lies that police run into, which is, I don't know.
我不在场，他们没干过。
I wasn't there, they didn't do it.
对吧？
Right?
然后他们会问：‘你是否参与了犯罪？’
And they go, were were you involved in a crime?
当然。
Sure.
没有。
No.
所以我们称之为‘可信赖的使命’。
So we call that a liable mission.
而当时大多数研究都围绕着这种执法模式展开。
And most of the studies that existed at the time, everything was centered around that law enforcement model of Mhmm.
警察在审问某人时说：你干的。
Police interviewing somebody and saying you did it.
对。
Right.
没有。
No.
我没干。
I didn't do it.
关于这种想法
And the thinking around that
这更像是主动型谎言与被动型谎言的区别。
It's like more of an offensive versus defensive lie.
是的。
Yeah.
而且当时，创建测谎仪的那个人，对吧？
And it was like, just I mean, the guy who created the polygraph, right?
你想想这个，再想想神奇女侠。
You think about that and think about Wonder Woman.
他也是神奇女侠的创作者。
He created Wonder Woman as well.
对吧？
Right?
所以她的诉讼方式，她能用绳子缠住人，让他们说出真相。
So that's why her lawsuit, she could wrap it around people, make them tell the truth.
那是一种幻想，或者说是真相血清。
That was the fantasy or like truth serum.
但假设是，说谎是一种威胁。
But the hypothesis was that lying is a threat.
因此当你撒谎时，会激活你的交感神经系统，因为你试图在应对威胁时生存下来。
And so when you go to lie, it activates your sympathetic nervous system because you're trying to you're trying to survive the threat.
如果我们能检测到你大脑或身体这一部分的激活，这就是为什么它会测量你的血压、心率和皮肤电导，因为这些指标能告诉我们你在撒谎。
And that if we detect activations of that part of your brain or your body, that's why it measures your blood pressure, your heart rate, your skin conductance, that those will tell us that you're lying.
事实上，它测量的是
In fact, it's
不是代理。
not Proxies.
它测量的是代理指标。
It's measuring proxies.
存在一些代理指标。
There are proxies for it.
而且效果其实并不怎么样。
And in and it's not really that great.
嗯哼。
Mhmm.
我的意思是，元分析和对测谎仪准确性的研究显示，准确率大约在52%到56%之间。
I mean, the meta analyses and looking at the accuracy of the polygraph suggest maybe comes in around 52 to 56%.
你知道的，这跟抛硬币差不多。
You know, you could flip a coin.
在某些情况下，有一种称为罪犯知识测试的测谎方式，准确率可以达到约75%，但这是一种识别性测试。
Under certain circumstances, there is a form of the polygraph testing called guilty knowledge testing where you can get it up to about 75%, but it's a recognition thing.
例如，如果我让你看一张卡片，假设这里有七张扑克牌或七个数字。
So for example, if I have you look at a card, let's say here we've got seven playing cards or seven numbers.
你先看其中一张，然后洗牌，接着我举起来，你只说‘不是’。
You you look at one, shuffle them up, and then I just hold it up, and you just say no.
然后我会问：‘是这个数字吗？’
And I go, was it this number?
是这个数字吗？
Was it this number?
是这个数字吗？
Was it this number?
你可以回答是或不是。
You could say yes or no.
当你看到之前见过的那个数字时，你的大脑会产生一种识别波形。
When you see the number you saw before, you will have a recognition waveform in your head.
你会产生一个P300反应，这是一种定向反应，会影响你的皮肤电导。
You get you get a p 300, an orienting sort of response to it, and that'll change your skin conductance.
但你也可以对所有问题都回答是。
And so but you could say yes to them all too.
所以这其实不是一个测谎测试。
So it's not really a lie test.
而是一个识别能力测试。
It's a test of recognition.
当然。
Sure.
但这种测试并不是人们在实地访谈中用来问‘你曾经撒过谎吗？’时所用的。
But that's not the test that people use in the when they're interviewing people in the field and saying, know, have you ever lied?
你曾经做过这件事吗？
Have you ever done this?
今天是星期二吗？
Is today Tuesday?
你坐好了吗？
Are you sitting down?
所以，我项目的一部分就是研究这些不同类型的测谎测试。
So part of my part of my program was looking at those different kinds of polygraph testing.
嗯。
Mhmm.
然后研究新技术。
And then looking at new technology.
有些人希望我们资助脑成像技术，送到阿富汗去。
Some people wanted us to fund brain imaging stuff to go to Afghanistan.
我当时就想，谁会把头伸进磁铁里还一动不动？
I was like, who's gonna put their head in a magnet and lay still?
所以，如果你有一个配合的受试者，他保证不乱动，不干别的，只是按照你的指示去思考或在你要求时按下小按钮，你确实能在脑扫描中看到明显的差异——当一个人说‘不知道’或‘不认得’，或者编造谎言时，与他说真话时的脑活动是不同的。
So, you know, it's really true if you have a compliant participant who is, I promise not to wiggle, do anything, but just think about what you tell me to think about or push the little buttons when you tell me, you can see some really nice differences in brain scanning between when someone is saying no that they don't know something or don't recognize something or endorsing a story that's a lie versus a story that's true.
嗯。
Mhmm.
但我一个朋友在哈佛做了个研究，杰里发现，只要你想象动一下小指，即使在扫描仪里也不用真的动。
But a friend of mine did a study, Jerry up at Harvard, and he found that if you just think about wiggling your little finger, you don't when you're in the scanner.
但只要想象一下就行。
But just think about it.
这就会让那些差异消失。
It made the differences go away.
所以。
So
这会让差异消失？
It made the differences go?
这会消除在说谎和说真话时大脑活动之间的差异。
It made the differences in in brain activity that were that were seen between when you were lying or truth telling.
你只需想象自己在动小指，就能抹除这些差异。
You could obliterate those differences by just imagining you were wiggling your little finger.
所以，我们曾经梦想着，你知道的，可以把你抓来，强迫你把头放进磁共振仪里，是的。
So this dream that, you know, we could take you, force you to put your head in a Yeah.
在fMRI中，嗯。
In an fMRI Mhmm.
或者别的什么，然后说，告诉我们真相。
Or something and say, tell us the truth.
你知道的？
You know?
然后你回答，不。
And you go, no.
而且你知道，所以这有点像幻想。
And it would you know, it so it's sort of a fantasy.
大多数人并不理解这一点。
Most people most people didn't understand that.
所以我的工作，我得被人称为‘诺博士’。
And so my job, I got to be known as doctor no.
诺博士。
Doctor no.
因为我看提案的时候会说，
Because I would look at proposals and I would say,
不。
no.
本集播客由PrizePicks赞助播出。
This episode of the podcast is brought to you by PrizePicks.
你我每天都会做决定，但在PrizePicks上，你的决定还能带来报酬。
You and I make decisions every day, but your decisions on PrizePicks can get you paid.
这个赛季别错过这种答对就有奖的刺激体验。
Don't miss the excitement this season where it's good to be right.
我以前用过其他应用，但只有PrizePicks让我真正明白为什么人们喜欢这个应用。
I've used other apps before, but with PrizePicks, I can actually understand why people like this app.
界面简洁、运行快速、操作简单。
It's clean, it's fast, and it's simple.
你只需对你的预测选择‘更多’或‘更少’，选几个你钟意的选手组成阵容，就可以开始了。
You just pick more or less on your projections, throw a couple of your favorites into a lineup, and you're good to go.
就这样。
That's it.
这是没有杂乱的每日幻想。
It's daily fantasy without the clutter.
这周我在关注萨昆·巴克利。
This week, I'm looking at Saquon Barkley.
他能冲进超过一个达阵吗？
Can he punch in more than one rushing touchdown?
乔·伯罗，他能传出超过两个半达阵吗？
Joe Burrow, can he sling more than two and a half touchdowns?
或者乔什·艾伦，传球码数超过270码。
Or Josh Allen, over 270 passing yards.
你浏览一下，不到一分钟就能组建好阵容，突然间，周日变得加倍刺激。
You scroll through, you make your lineup in less than a minute, and suddenly, Sunday feels twice as exciting.
我最喜欢的一点是，如果你选的球员早早受伤退场，你也不会直接输掉。
And one of my favorite parts is if one of your guys goes down early and doesn't come back, you're not automatically sunk.
你可以重新调整阵容来应对伤病。
You've got an injury reboot.
此外，所有的存取款都非常顺畅。
Plus, all the deposits and withdrawals are smooth.
Venmo、Apple Pay、Mastercard，任何对你方便的方式都行。
Venmo, Apple Pay, Mastercard, whatever works for you.
无需等待才能参赛，也不用担心钱去哪了。
No waiting to play or wondering where your money went.
所以，如果你和我一样，热衷于在橄榄球比赛中体验‘如果我猜对了’的瞬间，那么PrizePicks就是你的不二之选。
So if you're like me and you live for those what if I'm right moments on a football game, then PrizePicks is the way to go.
下载应用并使用我的代码Danny，在你完成首个5美元的阵容后，即可获得50美元的参赛额度。
Download the app and use my code Danny to get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup.
代码是d a n n y，完成首个5美元阵容后，即可获得50美元的参赛额度。
That's code d a n n y to get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup.
PrizePicks。
PrizePicks.
对的时候感觉真好。
It's good to be right.
你看了多少份提案？
How many proposals did you look at?
他们试图测试的那些诡异技术有多少？
How much was there a lot of spooky technology that they tried to test out?
哦，人们想要政府的钱。
Oh, people want the government's money.
对吧？
Right?
哦，是的。
Oh, yeah.
或者对。
Or yeah.
我们看了
We looked at
数百份。
hundreds.
据称。
Allegedly.
是的。
Yes.
看了大量的提案。
Looked at tons of proposals.
而且大多数时候，我们得考虑，我们的预算并不是无限的。
And most of the time, we had to think about, look, our our budget wasn't, you know, unlimited.
你提到预算，是指中情局的预算吗？
And you're talking about budget, you're talking about CIA budget specifically?
是的。
Yeah.
在科技领域，我和我的老板有一个专门用于这方面的预算。
In science and tech, we had, you know, with my boss, we had a particular budget that could be devoted to it.
所以我们就会想，如何用纳税人的钱来投资那些真正有用、与此相关的项目。
So we would say, how do we want to spend taxpayer money on seeing what would be really useful, what would be relevant for that.
这非常有趣，因为这部分工作让我感到非常愉快。
So that was a lot of fun because that part of my job was delightful.
我有机会结识许多科学家，聆听他们的想法，帮助他们判断这些想法是否可行，查看实验结果，并说：看起来很有意思，但可能在现实世界中对人们帮助不大。
It got to meet lots of scientists, listen to their ideas, help them figure out will it work, won't it work, look at the results and say, looks interesting, probably won't help people in the real world for that.
但也有少数几项技术最终证明非常有用。
But there were a couple of technologies that turned out to work that were really useful.
我想我们从2000年开始就发表了这些成果，第一篇大概是2006年或2007年。
We've published on those since 2000 I think first one was in 2006, 2007.
是的。
Yeah.
所以你在这方面发表了超过一百篇同行评审的论文吗？
So you've published like over a 100 peer reviewed papers on this stuff?
是的。
Yeah.
这就是我度过青春的方式。
That's how I've spent my youth.
我所有的研究设计都是在酒吧的餐巾纸上完成的，边喝酒边和同事交谈时构思的。
I've designed all my studies on a bar napkin, you know, while drinking and talking to colleagues.
哇。
Wow.
当你最放松、最富有创意的时候，就能设计出这些东西。
It's when you get most playful and you can design things.
不，我很幸运。
No, I've been fortunate.
我从未想过自己会发表关于检测欺骗的研究，因为我的重点一直是压力和创伤后应激障碍。
I never thought I would be publishing on detecting deception though because my thing was stress, PTSD.
对。
Right.
但当我身处其中时，我发现，即使你能告诉人们什么行不通，这或许才是最有用的方式。
But when I was there, it turned out I thought, well, this is how it can be the most useful even if you can tell people what doesn't work.
是的。
Yes.
这很有帮助。
It's helpful.
对吧？
Right?
对。
Right.
我记得有一次开会。
I remember sitting in one meeting.
我忘了是在哪里，是不是在国家科学基金会那儿。
I forgot where it was if we were over at the National Science Foundation.
但我记得有个人展示了一些数据，基本上显示他们的装置有33%的成功率。
But I remember somebody presented on some data that was basically showing that their toy worked 33% of the time.
我记得看着旁边的人，心想：抛个硬币，你至少能有50%的概率。
And I remember looking at the guy next to me and I'm like, flip a penny, you'll you'll at least get to 50.
我记得有两名特工坐在前排，他们说：‘不，博士。’
And and I remember I had two special agents sitting in the row who went, no, doc.
但你知道，33%总比什么都没有强。
But, you know, 33% is better than nothing.
对。
Right.
我当时说：‘不，不是这样的。’
And I'm like, no.
这比什么都没有强不了多少。
It's not better than nothing.
抛硬币可比什么都没有强。
A penny is better than nothing.
所以人们对于概率和人类判断真的存在误解。
Just for the so people have a they really have a misconception about chance, human judgment.
我，是的。
I I yeah.
我听说过一些关于老式星门计划的统计数据，就是那种冷战时期的远程观测之类的东西。
I don't I've heard statistics, like, about the the old Stargate program that they used to do, the the old cold war remote viewing type stuff.
是的。
Yeah.
他们认为，如果我没记错的话，准确率可能还不到10%，但他们还是往里面砸了数百万美元。
Where they I think I could be wrong, but if I read it correctly, if I remember correctly, it was like less than 10% or something accuracy, but they still dumped millions of dollars into it.
哦，对。
Oh, yeah.
我不知道这是否被证实过。
I don't know if it's ever been proven.
没有。
No.
但就个人层面而言，这完全令人信服，因为你记得那些你猜中的时刻。
But it's it's entirely compelling at a personal level because you remember the times you got a hit.
对。
Right.
对吧？
Right?
这就像赌博。
It's like gambling.
对。
Right.
你记不住所有输掉的时候。
You don't remember all the times you lost.
但如果你赢了一次，就会想：嗯，这值了。
But if you win once, you go, well, that paid off.
那真的很好。
That was really good.
所以我们倾向于忽略那些没成功的时候，而只记得成功的时候。
So we have a tendency to disregard when something didn't work, and we remember when it did.
所以如果有人使用语音压力分析仪或测谎仪之类的东西，他们会说：我知道这有用，因为有一次我们确实抓到了一个人。
So if somebody uses, whether it's a voice stress analyzer or a polygraph or something, they go, well, I know it works because that one time we caught a guy.
我说，是的。
I go, yeah.
但你不知道自己错过了多少次，比如那十个溜走的人。
But you don't know how many times you missed, like, the 10 that got away.
嗯。
Mhmm.
所以要计算准确率，我必须知道真实阳性率，即我们真正抓到的次数，还需要知道真实阴性率和假阴性率。
So to calculate accuracy, I have to know the true positive rate, how many hits we really got, and I need to know the true negative and the false negative rate of something.
我需要知道有多少被判定无罪的人确实是清白的，而不是仅仅放过了那些撒谎却没被识破的人。
I need to know how many people I cleared that were truly innocent and that I wasn't just clearing people who got away with their lies.
是的。
Yeah.
所以在现实中，从业者——无论是调查人员还是其他角色——并不知道哪些人欺骗了他们并成功脱身，因为他们已经判定这些人无罪。
So what happens in real life is practitioners, whether they're an investigator or something, they don't know who lied and fooled them and got away because they cleared them.
他们想：我相信他，所以他没问题。
They went, well, I believe him, so he's good.
对吧？
Right?
当然。
Sure.
所以他们脑海中留下的，只有那些最终认罪且供词与事件经过相符的人。
So all they're left with in their mind are the people who finally confessed and looked like the confession matched what happened.
因此这会强化这种信念。
And so it can reinforce this this belief.
但在听起来似乎在贬低这些人之前，哦，他们会针对医生。
And before it sounds too disparaging of those guys, oh, they'll pick on doctors.
嗯。
Mhmm.
医生也会做同样的事。
Doctors do the same thing.
这正是我们现在必须对药物进行双盲研究的原因。
That's just why now we have to do double blind studies for medication.
因为每个医生都可以说：我给病人吃了那种药，他们就好了。
Cause every doctor could say, well, I gave that pill to my patient and they got better.
对。
Right.
对吧？
Right?
嗯，确实如此。
Well, yeah.
手术也是同样的情况。
And then same thing with surgeries too.
比如很多医生做手术，我敢肯定绝大多数情况下，他们再也不会收到病人的任何反馈。
Like lots of doctors, they do surgeries and the surgeries that are there's a I'm sure there's a vast majority of them where they never hear from that patient ever again.
所以他们不知道手术是成功了还是失败了，也不知道病人有没有去找别的外科医生。
So they don't know if it went right or if it went wrong and if they found another surgeon.
没错。
Correct.
对。
Right.
所以这就是发生的信息选择偏差。
So that's that selection bias of information that happens.
因此，从个人层面来说，你可能会非常坚信某件事真的有效。
And so from a personal level, you can come away intensely convinced something really works.
只是我们没有意识到所有它无效的时候，如果我们知道这些，就会修正我们的看法。
It's just that we're not aware of all the times it didn't, which if we knew that, it would correct our it would correct our view.
但我总是告诉人们，你知道，你记得每一次听到飞机失事的报道。
But, so I always tell people, you know, you remember every time you hear the report of an airplane crash.
对。
Right.
但你的手表并不会每秒都提示一次飞机安全着陆，是的。
But your watch doesn't beep every second a plane lands safely Yes.
在地球上的某个地方。
Somewhere on the planet.
对吧？
Right?
这会把你逼疯的。
This would drive you nuts.
嗯。
Mhmm.
但你会想，是的。
But you go, yeah.
但就是那一次。
But that one time.
对。
Right.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
这就是我们的大脑是如何被塑造的。
So that's how our brains are wired.
我们对那些对我们有意义的事情赋予了不成比例的重视。
We we give disproportionate emphasis on something that's that is meaningful to us.
嗯。
Mhmm.
我们对它赋予了不同的价值。
And we we we place a different value on it.
这一点在识别欺骗方面也是如此。
And that's true in the detecting deception stuff.
我的意思是，我觉得整个领域里有趣的地方在于，作为人类，我们总是认为自己比实际更擅长识破谎言。
I mean, I thought the funny part in in that whole world is we, as human beings, we always believe we're better at detecting deception than we are.
嗯。
Mhmm.
当有人撒谎时，他们总以为你比实际情况看得更清楚他们的谎言。
And when someone's lying, they always believe that you can see more of their lie than you really can.
所以这就存在一种透明度错觉和全知错觉。
So there's that illusion of transparency and that illusion of omniscience.
对吧？
Right?
于是你有两个接受访谈的人。
And so you got two people being interviewed.
面试官觉得，我能识破谎言。
The interviewer who's like, I think I can detect deception.
而那个有罪的人则认为，他们能看穿我更多的谎言，但双方都错了。
And you got the guilty person going, I think they see more of my lie, and both are wrong.
所以你知道吗？
So you know?
我们什么时候才能拥有某种技术，可以直接给一个人戴上头盔，就能判断他是说实话还是在撒谎？
At what point are we just gonna have some sort of technology that we can just, like, put a helmet on somebody's head and figure out if they're true, if they're telling the truth, or if they're lying?
或者甚至直接把信息提取出来，
Or even, like, just suck the information out,
你
you
你知道，就像把信息拆成一些数据片段，然后直接把硬盘插到电脑里
know, in, like, some, like, bit like, in bits, and then, like, just plug it hard drive into a computer and
嗯，你知道吗？我之前去参观过耶鲁大学的Brain Works实验室，那里的研究人员正在努力通过脑活动来重建你做梦时的内容，哇哦。
Well, you know, I think I think that's what I was just visiting one of the labs, the Brain Works lab folks over at Yale, and they're the folks who are busy trying to take your brain activity and reconstruct what you were dreaming about and Oh, wow.
你看到的东西。
That you saw.
到目前为止，这已经相当惊人了。
And it's pretty amazing so far.
比如，当某人思考某个事物时，AI可以重建出你可能在想的内容类别。
Like, the categories, if someone's thinking about something with the AI reconstruction of what you're probably thinking about.
这技术还不能投入实际应用，但依然非常有趣。
It's not ready for primetime yet, but it still is really interesting.
但他们正在研究这项技术，而且是在人正在做梦的时候进行的。
But they're working on that technology while somebody's actively dreaming.
我认为《纽约时报》发表了一篇文章，展示了AI几乎能生成一段视频，呈现人们看似在想的内容，而非他们真正所想的。
I think the New York Times published an article about it where you could see it almost creates like a video of what seems to be going on versus what the person was really thinking.
所以我认为，这就是人们想了解的目标。
So I think that's the goal people wanna know.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
另一个是脑对脑通信，是的。
The other one is the the brain to brain communication Yeah.
如果你能把两个大脑连接起来的话。
Where if you can hook two brains up.
到目前为止，人们在玩俄罗斯方块方面表现得相当不错。
And so far, people are pretty good at Tetris.
对吧？
Right?
他们玩俄罗斯方块的表现优于随机猜测，仅仅是通过将想法发送给对方。
They do Tetris better than chance, just sending your thought to the other person.
但我认为，如果从这个角度思考，最终目标是能否实现交流？
But I think the ultimate goal, if you think about it in that way, is can you have communication?
两个大脑之间能否实现交流？
Can you have communication between two brains?
对。
Right.
所以，如果我在世界上某个地方看到了什么，我能不拍照就直接把它传给你吗？
So if I see something somewhere in the world, can I send it to you without taking a picture of it?
对吧？
Right?
如果你仔细想想，这将会非常酷。
And if you think about it, that'd be pretty cool.
嗯。
Mhmm.
但如果我能连接两个大脑，这正是我在战争学院演讲中让人们震惊的部分。
But if I can link two brains, that was part of that lecture I gave at the War College that freaks in people's eyes.
但如果你能连接两个大脑
But if you can link two brains
我看那个视频时完全被吸引住了。
I was I was glued to that video when I watched it.
你能弄清楚别人在想什么吗？
Can you go find out what someone's thinking?
对吧？
Right?
没人知道。
Nobody knows.
比如，如果你在分享想法，但当你睡着时我们连接了大脑，这就是未来研究中的一个疑问。
Like so if if you're sharing thoughts, but if you're asleep and we connect our brains, this is a future question in research.
嗯。
Mhmm.
我能接入那种状态吗？
Would I be able to tap into that?
比如，我能体验到你喝的东西吗？
Like, would I be able to experience what you're drinking?
对吧？
Right?
因为这是两个不同的问题。
If I and it's because they're two different questions.
第一，你能把你的想法传给我，我能理解吗？
One, can you send your thoughts to me, and can I understand them?
第二，我能去获取它们吗？
Two, can I go get them?
这是个不同的问题。
It's a different issue.
对吧？
Right?
你的意思是，不通过你发送就能获取它们？
You mean get them without you sending them?
是的。
Yeah.
明白了。
Got it.
对。
Right.
因为如果你仔细想想，如果你考虑脑部连接，那正是那场讲座的一部分。
Because if you think about it, if you think about if you're linking brains, that's part of that lecture.
就像是审讯者的梦想，对吧？
Was like, think about this is like the interrogator's dream, right?
我们不需要对你进行指控。
We don't have to charge you.
我们只需直接进入你的
We can just go poke around inside your
脑袋。
head.
是的。
Yes.
我们必须是自愿参与者。
We have to be willing participants.
当然，根据我们的宪法权利，这将侵犯你的第五修正案权利。
Well, certainly under our constitutional rights, that would be an invasion of your fifth, fifth amendment privilege.
但脑成像也是一样的情况。
But the same would be like brain imaging.
但从神经科学的角度来看，这才是真正有趣的地方。
But when you think about it from a neuroscience standpoint, that would be the really interesting thing.
你能分享想法吗？
Can you share thoughts?
你能看到别人在梦什么吗？
Can you see what other people are dreaming?
你能以非侵入性的方式重建他们正在想的内容吗？
Can you reconstruct in a noninvasive way what they're thinking of?
对我来说，我总是思考这个问题，因为我做过大量关于目击者辨认的工作，研究压力下目击者记忆的可靠性。
For me, I always thought about that because I did a lot of work in eyewitness identification, looking at the integrity of eyewitness memory under stress.
我想，现在你必须向一位艺术家描述，让他试着画出图像，然后问他：他是不是有点像这样或那样？
And I was thinking, right now you have to describe it to an artist who tries to draw a picture and goes, was he kinda like this or that?
他们正在做的工作，是试图根据你大脑的活动，还原出你所看到的那张脸的样子。
That work that they're doing, trying to see if they can create from your brain's activity kind of what the face was that you saw and looked like.
很有趣的是，看看这项研究会走向何方。
It'll be interesting to see where that goes.
我不确定它是否会准确。
I'm I'm not sure that it will be accurate.
它可能反映的是你认为真实的东西，但你的记忆可能是错误的。
It may represent something you believe is true, but your memory may be wrong.
对。
Right.
而且这确实是事实，目击证词会随着时间迅速衰退。
And that's something that is definitely true is that eyewitness testimony degrades quickly over time.
比如目击证词的准确性。
Like, the accuracy of eyewitness testimony.
对吧？
Right?
他们实际看到的东西会很快被扭曲。
Like, What actually they what they actually saw gets distorted
是的。
Yeah.
非常快。
Very quickly.
哦，是的。
Oh, yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
而且
And
非常严重。
big time.
我做过，那真的很有趣。
I did that was really fun.
我们对800多名特种作战人员进行了这项研究。
We did that in over 800 special operations guys.
真的吗？
Oh, really?
是的。
Yeah.
因为我也没想到我会做这个。
Because so I didn't think I was gonna do that either.
但因为我有个朋友叫贝丝·洛夫图斯，她因在虚假记忆方面的研究而非常著名，她研究了在治疗过程中产生的虚假记忆，人们因此指控父母虐待他们，或者声称地下室有外星人，甚至婴儿被放进搅拌机里。
But because, you know, I had a friend, Beth Loftus, who's really famous for her work on false memory and looking at false memories that have been generated in in therapy where people then accuse their parents of abusing them or, you know, aliens in the basement or babies in blenders.
七十年代末和八十年代初出现了一系列所谓的恢复记忆综合症案件。
There was a that sort of recovered memory syndrome series of cases in the late seventies and in the early eighties.
哦，是的。
Oh, yeah.
我从未留意过这些事。
And I never paid any attention to it.
我想，是的。
I thought, yeah.
好吧。
Okay.
于是他们去见治疗师。
So they meet with a therapist.
治疗师制造出虚假记忆，然后他们就提起诉讼。
It creates a false memory, then they they sue.
但这些事情通常是关于你三四岁或五岁时发生的经历。
But that's, like, for things that happen when you're three, four, five.
嗯嗯。
Mhmm.
而且这似乎并没有太离谱，我相信我们能够操纵你的记忆，改变你对五岁时发生事情的回忆，但能否改变你对昨天发生的事件的记忆呢？比如，一个高大的男人把你撞到墙上，殴打你，强迫你直视他的脸，或者你遭受性侵时的情景？
And it didn't seem to be too much of a stretch where I believe that we can manipulate your memory to change what you remember from when you were five versus can I change your memory for something happened yesterday when you had a big man throwing you against the wall and hitting you and making you stare at him face or, you know, if you were assaulted?
所以在大多数法律情境中，当有人提出指控时，人们通常会说，是的。
So most of the time in in, like, legal settings where someone has an accuser, you know, people are kind of they're like, yeah.
也许你对二十年前发生的事情的记忆是有问题的。
Maybe maybe your memory's faulty for what happened twenty years ago.
但如果一个人刚刚遭受性侵，我们并不认为这种情况会发生。
But if if a person just got sexually assaulted, we don't think that's happened.
我们不认为这种事有可能发生。
We don't think it's possible for that to happen.
所以如果她说那个人就是罪犯，那一定就是他。
So if she says that's the guy, that must be the guy.
没错。
And Right.
贝丝·洛夫图斯曾参与过几个案件，其中人们因为目击证人的证词不真实而被无罪释放。
And Beth Loftus had been involved in a couple of different cases where, you know, people were exonerated because the eyewitness testimony was was not not true.
1997年，我曾在海牙作证，因为史蒂夫·南威克和我发表了一篇关于战争记忆的论文，发现战斗创伤的记忆会随时间改变。
I testified at The Hague in 1997 because Steve Southwick and I had published a paper on war memories and found that memories about combat trauma change over time.
当时，这观点相当异端，因为在我上学时，我们把创伤记忆称为闪光灯记忆。
And at the time, this is pretty heretical because when I was in school, we called trauma memory was like a flashbulb.
所以它被称为闪光灯记忆。
So it was called flashbulb memory.
对吧？
Right?
就像，这种记忆深深烙印在你的大脑里，让你不会忘记，以便在下次能生存下来。
Like, it's seared into your brain so you won't forget it so you can survive that next time.
所以我们一直认为，对高度压力事件的记忆，一定比你三周前早餐吃了什么都记得更清楚。
So we had this belief that your memory for a highly stressful event must be better than your memory for what you had breakfast, I don't know, three weeks ago.
对吧？
Right.
你知道的。
You know?
而且你会想，除非每天都是一模一样的事情。
And you go, unless it's the same thing every day.
你知道的。
You know?
我不知道。
I don't know.
结果发现，对创伤事件的记忆是会改变的。
Well, it turns out memory for traumatic events changes.
我记得那次作证结束后回到家，对当时我的老板丹尼斯·查尼说：
So I remember I came home from that experience of testifying, and I said to my boss at the time, it was Dennis Charney.
他说，他想在SEER学校做一项关于目击者记忆的研究。
He said, I wanna do a study looking at eyewitness memory at SEER school.
因为压力是有好处的。
Because the stress is good.
我们可以在他们开始殴打学生之前，当场获得许可拍下审讯者的照片，然后第二天进行目击者辨认。
We can get permission to take a picture of the interrogator right then and there before they started, you know, beating the student and then do an eyewitness lineup the next day.
对吧？
Right?
嗯，没错。
And Mhmm.
所以，几篇不同的论文就是围绕这个展开的。
So that's what a couple of different papers were on.
第一篇论文研究了大约500名男性。
The first paper was with, like, 500 guys.
我们发现，在高压力情境下的记忆表现——虽然他们经历了不同类型的事件，但审讯方式分为两种。
And we found that memory for the high stress condition so they have different kinds of events, but there are two different kinds of interrogation.
一种是身体上极具压力的，另一种只是有人在跟你说话。
One's really physically stressful, the other one, someone's just talking to you.
他们可能会威胁你，但不会动手碰你。
They're threatening, but they can't lay hands on you.
所以我们发表了一篇论文，表明在高压情境下，当你要直视审讯者的眼睛时——他们离你比我现在离你更近，对吧——记忆会受到影响。
So we published that in the paper and showed that the memory for the high stress encounter where you've had to stare the interrogator in the eyes, you know, they're closer than I am to you Right.
而且如果他们移开视线，就会受到惩罚。
And they get punished for looking away.
所以他们必须在强光下一直盯着你。
So they gotta look at you under full lighting.
环境并不黑暗。
It's not dark.
现场辨认的准确率大约只有33%。
The the accuracy is about 33% for a live lineup.
当我们使用照片阵列时，准确率提升到了大约42%或43%。
When we gave a photo spread array, it bumped we got it up to, like, I think it was 42 or 43%.
照片的效果更好。
Photos were better.
是的。
Yeah.
仅仅是看静态照片的时候。
Just looking at still photos.
然后我们还有可以说是案发现场的相关照片。
And then we had pictures from the scene of the crime, so to speak.
在第一项研究里，我们把准确率提升到了51%。
And in that first study, we got it just up to 51%.
不过简单来说，在压力更低的另一组实验里，人们的识别准确率能达到75%甚至90%。
But but the long and short of it is in the other condition where the stress was lower, people are like at 75, 90% accurate.
所以我们得出了一个矛盾的研究结果：压力更低的事件带来的记忆力反而比高压事件更好，这在当时是一个非常出人意料的发现。
So we had this paradoxical finding that memory was better for the lesser stressful event than the high stress event, and that was really a revelation at the time.
这个结果完全出乎我们所有人的意料。
So it took us all by surprise.
哇哦。
Wow.
不过这
But it
是
was
这非常有帮助，因为你可以想象一条曲线，压力上升时，记忆的准确性也随之变化。
it was really helpful because it's sort of like when you think of if you think of a curve, whereas stress is going up or or stress is going up and you're thinking of the accuracy of memory.
当压力在初期增加时，你的记忆会变得更好。
As stress as stress increases for a little while, your memory gets better.
但当压力变得越来越强烈时，它最终会干扰我们大脑中的记忆系统。
But finally, as stress gets more and more and more intense, it ends up being disruptive to to our memory systems in the brain.
我们认为这就是正在发生的情况。
And we think that's what's happening.
所以这是一种倒U形。
So it's that inverted you.
因此，我们认为可能存在一个最佳点。
And so we think there might be a sweet spot.
但这些发现非常重要，因为它表明：看吧。
But but those were those findings were really important because it said, look.
这些人是我们当中最能承受压力的，但大多数人在高压力下对那个对他们实施身体攻击的人的辨认都是错误的。
These guys are some of our best for withstanding stress, and the majority of them are wrong about the person that they saw under high stress who was who was physically assaulting them.
基于这项研究，我们接着对800人进行了实验，心想：我们能否像贝丝·洛夫特斯在她的实验中那样改变他们的记忆？
And then and so from that study, we went on to do something in 800 folks where we thought, well, I wonder if we can change their memory like Beth Loftus has been doing in her experiments.
比如，在其中一个实验中，人们在接受审讯后，假设你是我审讯者的话——
So in one, for example, what I did after people had been interrogated so let's say you were my interrogator.
我见过你。
I've met you.
我已经在那里待了将近半小时，具体时间取决于学校。
I've been there for almost a half an hour, depends on the school.
然后他们把我送回了牢房。
And then they put me back in my cell.
接着，一个叫摩根博士的人会过来，问问他们感觉怎么样，然后递给他们一张纸。
Then, you know, this guy named doctor Morgan would come along and, you know, ask them how they were doing, and I'd hand them a piece of paper.
我会递给他们一张耶鲁大学一名学生的照片，让他们拿着，然后我说：我有几个关于你接受审讯时经历的问题。
And I would just say I'd hand them a piece of paper that had a photograph of one of my students on it from Yale, And I would just let them hold it, and I would say, so I have a couple of questions about your experience when you were being interrogated.
他们说，是的。
And they go, yeah.
我问，房间是什么颜色的？
And I said, what color was the room?
有电话吗？
Was there a telephone?
他们给你食物了吗？
Did they give you any food?
他们给你毯子了吗？
Did they give you a blanket?
他们有没有伤害你？
Did they hurt you in any way?
他们说，没有。
And they go, no.
没有。
No.
我从来没有指着那张照片说过任何话。
And I I never pointed to the picture and said anything.
有时候人们会说，我觉得这个人不是我认识的那一个。
Sometimes people go, I don't think this is my guy.
我就只是看着他，说：哇。
And I would just look at him and go, wow.
你真的很累了。
You are very tired.
我就只是拿过来，然后离开。
And I would just take it, leave.
所以第二天，当我们把所有人都带出营地并进行照片列队辨认时，是的。
So the next day when we got them all out of the compound and we do this lineup, photo spread lineup Yeah.
在我们进行辨认的这些人中，90%都会选择我给他们看的那张照片，而不是他们实际见过的那个人。
Of the people we would do that to, 90% of them will pick the picture I showed them rather than their guy that they met.
不可能。
No way.
所以如果你不做，50%的人还是会选错。
So if you don't do it, 50% are wrong anyway.
所以嗯。
So Mhmm.
你知道，如果我们不采取干预措施，对吧。
You know, if if we don't do an intervention Right.
有一半的人会选错。
Half of them are wrong.
不过，他们对自己的判断有九成把握，觉得自己是对的。
Their confidence is nine out of 10, though, that they're right.
所以你面对这些极其自信的特种部队人员，他们说：就是这个人。
So you've got these super confident special operations that's going, that's the dude.
对吧？
Right?
他们就会说：是的。
And they're like, yeah.
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