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到目前为止,节目里来过的所有嘉宾中,你的业务是我最不了解的。
Out of every single guest on the show so far, yours is the business that I understand the least.
咱们就借这次对话来弥补一下吧。
Let's use this conversation as an opportunity to fix that.
解释一下你在做什么,你的使命是什么,以及你目前进展如何。
Explain what you're working on and what your mission and how you're doing
好的。
Yeah.
电网是电力系统中的一部分,而电力这个领域很多人都不太懂,这很常见。
So the grid is is something in the power system and and electricity broadly is a topic that a lot of people don't understand, and it's it's pretty common.
我觉得这是因为其中有很多细微的差别。
I think that's because there's a ton of nuance to it.
这是一个非常古老的系统。
It's a very old system.
而且受到高度监管。
It's highly regulated.
所以这并不算是大家平时会自然聊到的话题。
And so it's not something that is in kind of natural common zeitgeist.
其实我们的业务非常简单。
The truth is our business is very simple.
我们做的就是生产和输送兆瓦电力。
We're in the business of making and delivering megawatts.
我们的兆瓦电力是全球最实惠、最可靠的。
And our megawatts are the most affordable and reliable megawatts in the world on the planet.
至少这是我们的目标。
At least that's our ambition.
我们的使命是通过推动能源充裕来助力人类繁荣。
And our mission is to power human prosperity by driving energy abundance.
我们关注的是人均能源消耗和人均GDP之间非常直接的关联。
And we look to a very simple correlation between consumption of energy per capita and GDP per capita.
结论就是,一个群体能消耗的能源越多,他们的生活就越好。
And the takeaway is that the more energy a population is able to consume, the better their life gets.
所以,如果你能让兆瓦、吉瓦、太瓦变得更便宜、更可靠,那就是让人们生活变得更好的最佳方式。
And so if you can make megawatts, gigawatts, terawatts, more affordable and reliable, it's the best way to make people's lives better.
这是我们所有人都团结一致、充满热情去追求的一个使命。
And that's a mission that we have all rallied around and gotten super passionate about.
我们通常从使命、愿景和战略这三个角度来思考问题。
We think about things in terms of a mission, a vision, and a strategy.
使命就是回答我们为什么在这里。
So the mission is why are we all here?
我们在这里是为了修复电网,提供负担得起、可靠的电力,并通过推动能源丰富来促进人类繁荣。
We're all here to fix the grid and deliver affordable, reliable power and promote human prosperity by driving energy abundance.
在我们继续之前,请解释一下为什么电网需要修复。
Before we go further, explain why the grid needs fixing.
现在它有什么问题?
What's the problem with it now?
不是它坏了,而是它太小了。
It's not that it's broken, it's that it's too small.
像电力和能源这么重要的东西,怎么就不能规模化呢?
How could something as important as electricity and power not be something that we can scale?
我们一开始是怎么陷入这种局面的?
Like, how do we get into this situation to begin with?
我觉得是因为资本主义还没能在这一行发挥它的魔力,因为这个行业监管很严,而且围绕它建立起来的那些公司也没有动力去创新。
I think because capitalism hasn't hasn't been able to work its magic on the industry because it's it's highly regulated, And the companies around it that have built it don't have an incentive to innovate.
它们受费率监管,收入靠资本支出,而不是研发。
They're they're rate regulated and they get paid on CapEx, not on R and D.
所以它们花在研发上的钱占收入的比例,低得跟任何行业比都算低的。
And so the amount of money that they spend on R and D as a percentage of their revenue is like as low as any industry you'll ever find.
它们不是以工程为导向的组织。
They're not engineering led organizations.
它们是以项目管理和资本支出为导向的组织。
They're project management and CapEx oriented organizations.
在如何扩大我们的用电能力方面,一直没什么创新。
There has not been a bunch of innovation in how can we scale our capacity to consume electricity.
就是说,我们怎么才能尽可能快地建设,并且从建设中赚到回报呢?
It's just like, how do we go build as fast as we can and earn a return on that building?
我们刚刚改变了这一点。
We just changed that.
我们是一家能源技术公司,以研发为驱动,以工程为主导,专注于技术。
We are an energy technology company that is R and D driven, engineering led, and technology focused.
我们将开发技术,让我们能够扩大电力消费规模,提供更多可靠且负担得起的兆瓦电力,并应对电力需求激增的关键时刻。
We are going to build technology that allows us to scale our consumption of electricity, deliver more megawatts that are reliable and affordable, and help meet the moment of the inflection in electricity demand.
好的。
Okay.
所以这就是你之前说的那些话的原因。
So that's why you were talking.
我也是这么想的。
That's what I thinking.
就是说,好吧,所以会有这么巨大的增长,而且还会持续下去。
It's like, okay, so there's this huge surge that will continue.
因为AI的发展,我们需要更多的电力和电能。
We need more power and electricity because of everything going on with AI.
在那之前,有没有其他转折点,还是美国的电力需求只是线性增长?
Before that, was there any other inflection point or did the demand for electricity in The United States just kind of grow like linearly?
过去五十年,美国的电力需求基本上跟通货膨胀率同步增长。
Over the last fifty years, demand for electricity in The US has grown at basically the rate of inflation.
其实增长并不多。
It has not really grown much.
这是现在正在发生的一次性历史问题吗?
This is a once time history problem that's having right now?
我觉得本来就有潜在的增长,至少开始来自交通电气化和电动汽车,但进展比一些人预期的要慢。
I think that there was underlying growth coming or at least starting to come from the electrification of transportation and electric vehicles, but that's played out less quickly than some might have thought.
随着成本下降,我认为这种情况会继续发展。
I think that will continue to play out as the cost goes down.
像电热泵和重工业电气化会推动电力需求,但AI基础设施的建设大大加速了这一进程。
And things like electric heat pumps and electrification of heavy industry will drive electricity demand, but the AI infrastructure build out has massively accelerated it.
你能解释一下AI对电力的需求有多大吗?
Can you explain how big the demand is for electricity for AI?
我甚至都不知道。
I don't even know.
听说过,
Hear about it,
我觉得思考这个问题的方式是,过去二十年,电力需求大约以每年2%的复合增长率增长。
I The don't way to think about it is over the last twenty years, electricity demand has grown at roughly a 2% of competitive annual growth rate.
我们认为这个数字会上升到大约10%,这显然是5倍的增长,在能源这么庞大的基数上,这真的是非常非常巨大的变化。
And we think it'll go to somewhere on the order of 10%, which is obviously a 5x, which on a base as large as energy is really, really, really big.
好的。
Okay.
然后回到使命,所以我们从使命、愿景和战略的角度来思考。
Then go back to the mission, So we think about it in terms of the mission, the vision, and the strategy.
使命就是你为什么在这里。
The mission is why you're here.
我们的使命是推动能源丰富,促进人类繁荣,说白了就是提供负担得起、可靠的电力。
We're here to promote human prosperity by driving energy abundance, which basically just means deliver affordable and reliable power.
愿景就是这到底意味着什么?
The vision is what does that even mean?
实际上会是什么样子?
What does that actually look like?
那就是电力时代现代化电力公司的样子。
And what that looks like is the modern power company of the electric era.
我们认为能源行业正在经历一场代际性的范式转变,过去五十年,能源行业以煤炭和天然气作为边际电力来源。
We think that there's a generational paradigm shift happening in the energy industry where the last five decades of energy were defined by coal and then natural gas as the marginal megawatt.
未来五十年将由太阳能、电池和软件来定义。
The next five decades will be defined by solar, batteries and software.
我们将围绕这个新范式来打造公司。
We are going to build that company that is oriented around that new paradigm.
而战略就是我们怎么赢?
And then the strategy is how do we win?
我们的竞争策略是什么?
What is our competitive approach?
我们成功的秘诀是什么?
What is our formula for success?
我会说,是通过垂直整合和技术来建立持续的成本优势。
And I would describe that as developing a compounding cost advantage through vertical integration and technology.
之所以说这是策略,是因为能源、电力是商品,而最好的商品就是最便宜、最可靠的。
And the reason why that is a strategy is because energy, electricity is a commodity, and the best commodity is the least expensive, most reliable commodity.
我们整个业务都围绕行业的基本面来布局,也就是建立成本优势,利用技术,通过垂直整合,一切都以促进人类繁荣和能源充足为使命。
We've oriented the entire business around the fundamentals of the industry, which is to develop a cost advantage, use technology, use vertical integration, oriented all around the mission of human prosperity and energy abundance.
而在过去三年里,发生了一件有趣的事,那就是出现了一个新的电力消费者。
And then in the last three years, something interesting has happened, which is a new consumer of electricity has showed up.
它现在已经是全球增长最快的电力消费者,很快也会成为最大的,它的名字叫人工智能。
And it's now the fastest growing and soon going to be the largest consumer of electricity in the world, and its name is AI.
所以我们要围绕这一点来调整公司方向,以满足这种需求,抓住这个时机,这样我们就能继续扩展人工智能基础设施,加速所有因这项技术而带来的惊人进步,我认为这是我们一生中最伟大的技术突破。
So we're going to orient the company around that to serve that demand and meet that moment so that we can continue to expand our AI infrastructure and accelerate all the incredible advances that will come as a result of this technology, which I think is the greatest technological breakthrough of our lifetime.
那你说说,你们是怎么围绕这个重新调整公司的?
So explain how you're reorienting the company around that.
其实与其说是重新调整,不如说是利用我们已经在建设和计划建设的所有技术,通过把电力带到计算中心、把计算中心带到电力旁边,来加速AI基础设施的建设。
Well, it's less of a reorientation and more of a using all the technology that we're already building and planning to build to accelerate the build out of AI infrastructure by bringing the power to the compute and bringing the compute to the power.
具体来说,就是通过在这些集中式数据中心周围部署我们的兆瓦电力,来抵消负载,从而为系统增加余量,这样我们就能建设更多数据中心。
What this means is accelerating the build out of these centralized data centers by deploying our megawatts around those data centers and offsetting that load so we can add headroom to the system so we can build more of it.
然后,把那些计算硬件带到我们开发的大规模能源设施那里,以加速部署。
Then taking that compute hardware and actually bringing it to this massive fleet of energy that we've developed to accelerate the deployment of it.
好的。
Okay.
那你们怎么产生更多电力呢?
So how do you generate more power then?
这里其实有两件不同的事情需要考虑。
So there are really two distinct things to think about here.
一个是发电,另一个是输电和配电。
There's generation and then there's transmission and distribution.
对吧?
Right?
发电就是新电子的来源。
So generation is where the new electrons come from.
对吧?
Right?
太阳能、风能、天然气、煤炭、地热能、水力发电。
Solar, wind, gas, coal, geothermal, hydroelectric.
还有很多不同的方式,比如聚变、裂变。
There's tons of different ways to get fusion, fission.
发电的方式有很多种。
There's a bunch of different ways to generate energy.
然后你得把它输送出去。
And then you have to move it.
对吧?
Right?
电杆和电线把能量在空间里传输,而电池则把能量在时间上转移。
And poles and wires move energy through space and batteries move energy through time.
电网是一个完成输电和配电的系统,它是按照峰值需求来建设的,所以规模非常大,这就意味着有很多低效之处,而且并不是所有时间都在被使用。
The grid is a system by which the transmission distribution happens and it's built for the peak, so it's massively oversized, which means that you have a bunch of inefficiency and that it's not being used all the time.
它的利用率并不高。
It's not being highly utilized.
当一个系统的利用率很低时,整个系统的成本就会变得非常高。
And when you have a system that runs at low utilization, it makes the system very expensive.
电池可以让你提高这个系统的利用率,因为你可以当需求很低的时候给电池充电,当需求很高的时候放电。
Batteries allow you to increase the utilization of that system because you can charge them when demand is really low and you can discharge them when demand is really high.
所以你可以把需求曲线给拉平。
And so you can take, you know, the curve of demand and you can flatten it.
这样一来,你就能降低总的交付成本,因为行业里所说的容量因子,也就是利用率,提高了。
And therefore, you can lower the total delivered cost because the capacity factor, as it's called in the industry, or the utilization has gone up.
所以,我们目前的产品线专注于电池储能,我们并不是在制造更多的电力。
So with our current product set today focused on battery storage, we're not making more electricity.
我们只是更高效地利用它,从而把成本降下来。
We're just using it more efficiently to drive the cost down.
所以我理解的是,这里的优化在于你们并没有增加更多的线路和电线。
So if I'm understanding, the optimization here is you're not adding more lines and wires.
你们其实是通过电池更好地优化了现有的系统。
You're actually just optimizing the existing system better through batteries.
没错。
Exactly.
我们现在做的不是发电,这里面有一套逻辑要理清,就比如……
We're taking there's a math think about in the middle of the
德州白天的用电情况。
day in Texas.
就说现在吧,外面都热疯了。
Like right now, it's hot as hell outside.
外面确实热得离谱。
It's hot as hell outside.
太阳高高挂在天上。
The sun is high in the sky.
如果你去erkod.com看看价格,我敢打赌批发价真的很低。
If you go to erkod.com and you go look at the prices, I bet you wholesale prices are really low.
那是因为我们州有大量的太阳能。
And that's because we have a ton of solar in the state.
太棒了。
It's amazing.
对吧?
Right?
所以我们现在正在给电池充电。
And so we're charging our batteries right now.
我不能百分百确定,但我们很可能在今天的太阳能高峰期充电,就是价格下降的时候。
Not I can't tell you that for sure, like we are most likely charging during the solar ramp today, right, when like the prices go down.
然后今晚太阳下山,大家都下班回家开空调,价格就会上涨,因为需求上升而供应下降。
And then when the sun goes down tonight and everyone goes home and they turn on their AC from work, prices are going go up because demand is going up and supply is going down.
太阳下山了,太阳能不再发电,电价上涨,我们就放电。
The sun is down, the solar is no longer producing, prices go up, we discharge the batteries.
我们并没有创造新的电力,只是把用电时间挪了一下。
We didn't create new electricity, but we time shifted it.
那以前是怎么做的呢?
What was happening before?
电力公司就什么都不干吗?
Power companies were doing nothing?
其实以前我们只是用电效率不高。
Well, we were just using the system less efficiently.
我们一直在削减太阳能发电。
We were curtailing solar.
现在也还在削减,中午的时候发电量过剩,所以电价才会那么低。
We still are curtailing solar, and there's a bunch of excess generation that's happening in the middle of the day where that's why prices go so low.
因为太阳能发电量超过了我们的使用量,但我们没法把那些电存到晚上太阳下山后再用。
It's because we're generating more solar than we can use, but we can't time shift that to be used when the sun goes down the evenings.
所以这就是你为什么对电池这么着迷。
So that's why you're obsessed with batteries.
我从大学起就对电池着迷了。
I've been obsessed with batteries since college.
电池已经存在几十年了。
Batteries have been around for decades.
其实,约翰·B.
Actually, John B.
古迪纳夫,就是那位研究锂电池化学的原始博士科学家。等等。
Goodenough, the original PhD scientist who worked on the LP battery chemistry Hold on.
他的名字叫古迪纳夫?
His name was Goodenough?
古迪纳夫。
Goodenough.
愿他安息。
May he rest in peace.
他是德克萨斯大学的教授,就在街那头。
He was a professor at the University of Texas, just down the street.
好的。
Okay.
那一个孩子怎么会对电池电芯这么着迷呢?
So what how how does a kid get obsessed with battery cell?
说起来话长,不过我们有时间。
I mean, it's kind of a long story, but We have time.
时间。
Time.
你看。
Look.
你知道,我们聊过很多。
I mean, as you know, we talked about a bunch.
从小到大,我一直对大的难题特别着迷,就是想试着去解决它们。我理解的资本主义和公司建设,就是把人组织起来去攻克最难的难题。
Growing up, I was always obsessed with big, hard problems and just trying to and that was always what I my understanding of capitalism and company building was just organizing people around the hardest problems.
而且问题越大,解决方案带来的经济成果就越大。
And the bigger the problem, the larger the economic outcome downstream of the solution.
我看着我爸爸做到了这一点,看着他彻底改变了个人电脑行业,现在他正在做人工智能基础设施建设和服务器业务。
And I watched my dad do it, and I watched him totally inflect the PC industry and now what he's doing with the AI infrastructure build out and the server business.
那一直是我最大的动力。
And that was always my strongest motivation.
我是说,他是我心中的英雄,现在依然是。
Mean, he was my hero, and he's still my hero.
我一直想成为他那样的人,这一点毫无疑问。
And I always wanted to be like him, and there's just no no two ways about it.
我想成为一名企业家。
I wanted to be an entrepreneur.
我八年级时创办了第一家公司,高中二年级时创办了第二家,大学二年级时创办了第三家。
Started my first company in eighth grade, and I started my second company my sophomore year of high school, and I started my third company my sophomore year of college.
基本上,这些公司都没成功,但我一直在学习,努力去解决问题。
And basically, none of them worked, but I was just learning stuff and just trying to get out there and solve problems.
大学的时候,我在做一个所谓的B2B项目,其实更像一个科学实验。
And in college, I was working on a business to business, in air quotes, is more of a science project.
把人类排泄物转化成压缩甲烷或者生物燃气,这其实不是一个好的商业点子。
It was not really a good commercial idea to convert human waste into compressed methane or biogas.
但在现实世界里,它可以作为低成本电力的来源,因为我一直痴迷于让那些没有电的人用上便宜的电,因为这是让他们的生活变得更好的一个明显途径。
It could be used as a source of low cost electricity in the real world because I was obsessed with this idea of providing people with access to low cost power that didn't have it because it was this obvious way to make their life better.
差不多在那段时间,我被太阳能给迷住了,可以说是被“技术宅”式地吸引住了。
And around that time, I was just I was really kind of nerd sniped, for lack of a better phrase, by solar.
我觉得太阳能是史上最酷的东西。
I thought solar was the coolest thing ever.
太阳能确实很棒,但太阳的问题在于它会落山,除非你在太空里。
And solar was great, but the problem with the sun is that it goes away unless you're in space.
所以你需要一种机制,能在太阳出来的时候把能量存起来,在太阳不在的时候用,而电池就是答案。
And so you need a mechanism by which you can use that energy that's produced when the sun is out at times when the sun is not there, and batteries are the answer.
早期的电池技术,有很多不同的化学体系,有铁空气电池,有固态电池,还有这种高镍的NMC锂离子电池,后来这种电池开始大受欢迎。
And battery technology, most of the batteries in the early days, you had a lot of different chemistries out there, and you had iron air, and you had solid state, and then you had this kind of NMC high nickel lithium ion chemistry catch a lot of steam.
大多数电动车和早期电动车建设用的都是这种高镍NMC化学体系。
Most of the EVs and the early EV build out were this high nickel NMC chemistry.
而直到最近五年左右,这种低镍的LFP化学体系才出现,它其实更适合固定式储能。
And only in the last five years or so, this low nickel LFP chemistry, which is really better for stationary storage.
它更安全。
It's safer.
持续时间更长。
It's longer duration.
它才开始崭露头角。
It started to emerge.
我上大学那会儿,对太阳能特别兴奋,对电池也特别兴奋。
When I was in college, was really excited about solar, really excited about batteries.
实际上,我21岁上大学的时候,还试图促成一笔交易,去租夏威夷大岛上的一块地,那里的土地成本很低,但电价很高,然后建一个太阳能阵列。
In fact, I tried to put together a deal as a 21 year old college kid to go lease a piece of land on the Big island Of Hawaii, which has really low cost land and really high cost electricity, build a solar array.
其实当时本来打算由Solar City来做EPC,他们那时候做了很多公用事业规模的EPC项目。
Actually, it was going to be EPCed at the time by Solar City, who was doing a lot of utility scale EPC.
这是在卖给特斯拉之前的事吗?
This is before they sold to Tesla?
是的。
Yes.
好的。
Okay.
然后跟夏威夷电力签一个购电协议,那是二十年的PPA,接着整个项目按90%的贷款价值比去融资,最后能拿到20%的杠杆内部收益率。
And sign a power purchase agreement with Hawaii Electric, which is a twenty year PPA, and then go finance the whole project 90% loan to value and earn a 20% levered IRR.
我在大学的时候……所以我在印度做完这个项目之后,我最终进入了金融行业,后来互联网泡沫破裂了。
I, in college So after I'm working on this project in India, I end up going into finance down the internet.
基本上,我当时想,好吧,这个生意做不成。
Basically, I was like, okay, this business isn't going to work.
在创办下一家公司之前,我需要去学习什么是好生意。
Before I start another company, I need to go learn about good businesses.
所以我要去一个能找到最聪明、最努力的人的地方,我就坐在他们旁边,拼命工作,努力变得更聪明,基本上就是给自己积累工具。
And so I'm going go to the place where I can find the smartest people that work the hardest, and I'm just going to sit next to them and just work my butt off and try to get smarter, basically, and build tools for my tool.
那你是不是早就知道自己无论如何都会去创业?
Well, you knew no matter what you were going be an entrepreneur?
肯定的。
For sure.
毫无疑问。
There was no question.
我从来没想过,比如,我要去黑石当私募合伙人。
I was never like, oh, I'm gonna be a private equity partner at Blackstone.
没有。
No.
但你是
But you are
我们聊了很多。
one of the we talk a bunch also.
但你是我所有创始人朋友里,说话最像私募的人。
But you are one of the all my founder friends that talk the most like a PE guy.
你把孩子从黑石带出来了,但黑石的那股劲儿还在孩子身上,我想。
You take the kid out of Blackstone, but not the Blackstone out of the kid, I guess.
我确实很喜欢,我特别注重数据,也很有竞争心,而且我热爱市场和公司。
I do love I'm very quantitative, and I'm competitive, and I love markets and companies.
我觉得这是因为我是从小研究公司和市场长大的。
And I think that's because I grew up studying companies and markets.
就像
Like
任何一个优秀的犹太小男孩一样,我把理发店赚的钱投进了股市,然后跟踪公司。
any good, you young Jewish boy, I took my barbershop money and put it in the stock market and, you know, track companies.
而且,你知道,我现在还在管理一个个人账户,我特别享受跟踪公司的过程。
And it's like, you know, still manage a PA that I have a lot of fun, you know, following companies.
我就是喜欢研究企业,以及什么造就了好企业。
I I just love studying businesses and what makes good businesses.
而且和你一样,我也是伯克希尔股东信、亚马逊股东信和星座股东信的忠实粉丝,我会如饥似渴地读那些东西。
And like you, I'm a big fan of, you know, the Berkshire letters and, you the Amazon shareholder letters and, you know, the Constellation letters and would devour those things.
所以这更多是因为我对金融、会计和资本配置非常感兴趣,因为这是成为资本密集型企业的优秀CEO所必需的技能。
And and so it was more of I'm so interested in finance and accounting and investing in capital allocation because it is a necessary skill to be a great CEO of a capital intensive business.
对吧?
Right?
这就是我一直对这些东西感兴趣的原因。
And that was always why I've interested in in those things.
长话短说,我在大学期间去黑石实习了。
And so long story short, I'm in college and I go, you know, intern at Blackstone.
我拿到了录用通知。
I get the return offer.
在回黑石之前,我回到了大学。
I'm back in college before going back to Blackstone.
我当时想,哦,我现在会用电子表格了,随便吧。
And I'm like, oh, I know how to use spreadsheets now, whatever.
于是我为这个太阳能项目建了一个模型、写了一份备忘录、做了幻灯片,然后去纽约联系了那些大银行的项目融资团队,向他们推销我想要在夏威夷建造太阳能阵列的3000万美元贷款。
And so I build a model, a memo, slides for this solar project, and I go to New York and I go get in touch with a bunch of project finance teams at these big banks, and I go pitch them on my $30,000,000 loan that I want to go build the solar array in Hawaii.
他们都觉得,我去开会的时候,这些好心人愿意跟这个大学生见面。
And they're all like I get to meetings and these nice people will take the meeting with this college kid.
我展示我的模型和备忘录,他们问,谁来负责这个项目?
And I present my model and my memo, and they're like, who's gonna run this project?
比如,你的团队在哪里?
Like like, where's your team?
我说,哦,就是我。
I was like, oh, I am.
我说,我会的,你们在说什么?
Like, I'm gonna what are you talking about?
我会直接去做,而且我已经把所有事情都搞定了,这是备忘录。
I'm gonna just do it, and I have everything figured out, here's the the memo.
他们就说,你要去黑石当分析师。
And they're like, you're gonna go be an analyst at Blackstone.
这根本就不是,我基本上被所有人嘲笑出了会议室。
Like, this isn't and I got basically laughed out of the room by everybody.
但我是认真的。
But I was dead serious.
我当时就说,哥们,这就是数学铅笔。
I was like, dude, this is the the math pencils.
而且我觉得那会是一笔很棒的投资。
And I I think that would have been a great investment.
它会成功的。
It would have worked.
不过,那时候我对太阳能经济非常看好。
But, like, I was very bullish on solar economics back then.
然后我去了黑石,那里有一群人在研究电池行业。
And I show up at Blackstone, and there's a bunch of people who are poking around the battery industry.
供应链方面,我们考虑过剥离一个锂矿,我花了不少时间在这上面。
The supply chain, we looked at carving out a lithium mine, which I spent a bunch of time on.
公司最终收购了一家公司,现在它是全国最大的公用事业规模电池开发商之一。
The firm ended up buying a business that's now one of the largest utility scale battery developers in the country.
当时我对电池领域的发展真的非常兴奋。
And I got really excited about what was happening in the battery space.
但公用事业规模的电池有一个很明显的问题。
But there was this obvious issue with utility scale batteries.
我说的公用事业规模电池,是指放在某个农田里的那种大集装箱。
And when I say utility scale batteries, I mean big shipping containers in a farm field somewhere.
你大概能想象那是什么样子,你应该见过那种图片。
And you can probably think about what that looks like, you've seen pictures of that.
过去一二十年里,这类资产表现确实很好。
And that's been a really good asset class over the last decade or two.
基本上每家大型私募股权公司都有公用事业规模电池平台,像Apollo、KKR、Blackstone、Oaktree,还有ARIES、Brookfield这些。
There's basically every big private equity firm has a utility scale battery platform, Apollo and KKR and Blackstone and Oaktree and all these guys, ARIES, Brookfield.
他们都拥有这类资产,杠杆很高,回报也不错。
They all own these assets, they're highly levered, they're a nice return.
但这类资产从根本上受到两个因素的限制。
But they're fundamentally constrained really by two things.
一个是并网容量。
One is interconnection capacity.
也就是说,电网没有足够的地方来放这些大集装箱。
So there's not enough places on the grid to go put these big shipping containers.
第二个是输电拥堵。
And the second is transmission congestion.
像奥斯汀市中心、达拉斯市中心、休斯顿市中心这些用电大户,你需要电的地方,却放不了集装箱电池。
These big load pockets like Downtown Austin, Downtown Dallas, Downtown Houston, where you need the power, that's not where you can put the shipping container battery.
对吧?
Right?
所以输电拥堵会体现在电价上,你没法在需要的时候把电送到需要的地方。
And so you have transmission congestion, which shows up in pricing, and you're unable to get the power where you need it at the right time.
这让我真正意识到,或者说让我看清了分布式架构的思路,就是部署电池,部署……
And so that really showed me or kind of brought to light the insight around a distributed architecture, deploying batteries, deploying That's
实际上……
the actual
房子。
house.
在电网接入点存在的地方,也就是负荷所在的地方。
Where the interconnection exists, where the load is.
明白了。
Got it.
对吧?
Right?
所以你不必担心输电问题,也不必担心电网接入问题。
And so you don't have to to to worry about the the transmission problem, and you don't have to worry about the interconnect
这真的太有意思了。
That's really fucking interesting.
我觉得在你刚才说之前,我都没理解这一点。
I don't think I understood that before you just said that.
所以后来我开始研究分布式电池和家用电池领域。
So then I started studying the distributed battery world and the residential battery world.
我看了这个领域里的每一家公司,读了他们的10-K和S-1文件,还跟分析师聊过。
And I looked at every company in the space and read the 10 k's and the s one's and talked to the analysts.
你会发现,上市公司和这个领域的所有公司,都在卖高利润的高端产品。
You learn that the publicly traded companies and all the companies in the space, they're all selling a high margin premium product.
他们直接卖给你一个两万美元的家用电池或家用发电机,赚一笔毛利,然后就完事了。
It's a $20,000 home battery or $20,000 home generator that they sell you outright, they make a gross margin on and they're done.
他们不把它当基础设施来建设,也不当基础设施来使用。
They're not building it like infrastructure, they're not utilizing it like infrastructure.
那一刻我突然意识到,分布式架构才是答案,而围绕这个问题的所有公司,都搞错了商业模式。
It was this moment of like, Oh, the distributed architecture is the answer, and all the companies that are around that problem, they're focused on the wrong business model.
他们只盯着高利润的前期销售。
They're focused on high margin upfront sales.
然后我开始特别兴奋,因为我想,天哪,如果你要挑战现有的大公司,我觉得最好的方式就是采用一种相反的商业模式。
Then I start getting really excited because I'm like, oh my god, if you're going to take on an incumbent, my view is the best way to do it is to have a counter position business model.
因为如果我去跟人说,我有市场上最好的家用电池,最好的家用发电机,而且我比大公司便宜10%,那你的利润就是我的机会。
Because if I showed up and said, I have the best home battery on the market, the best home generator on the market, and I'm going sell it to you for 10% below the big guys, your margin is my opportunity.
对吧?
Right?
那些大公司肯定会跟你打价格战。
Like these big guys are going to compete on price.
他们首先会抄袭我的产品。
They're going to first, they're going to copy my product.
如果我的产品更好。
It was better.
然后他们会降价。
Then they're going to drop their price.
他们会把我挤出市场。
They're going to run me out of business.
但如果我出现并说,我不卖电池。
But if I show up and say, I don't sell batteries.
我卖的是电力。
I sell electricity.
而且我们要把这种电池装在你家里。
And we're going to sell this battery on your home.
当电网正常运行时,我们就用它。
When the grid's up and running, we use it.
这样一来,你就能用上便宜的电。
As a result, you get cheap electricity.
当电网断电时,你就用它。
When the grid goes down, you use it.
而且因为我们的商业模式不同,你只需要花买下它价格的二十分之一甚至四十分之一,这样我就能赢。
And because of our different business model, you pay one twentieth or even one fortieth of what you'd pay to own it outright, then I can win.
如果你想跟我竞争,而且你是现有的大公司,你就得彻底改变你的商业模式,而你也知道,对上市公司来说这非常难。
And if you want to compete with me and you're one of the incumbents, you've got to completely change your business model, which as you know, for a public company is very hard.
因为你去华尔街,跟华尔街说,我们过去十年一直这样赚钱,现在我们要用一种全新的方式赚钱。
Because you go to Wall Street, go to Wall Street and you say, we've been making money this way for the last decade, and now we're going to make money in an entirely new way.
通常,华尔街不太喜欢这样。
Typically, Street doesn't like that very much.
所以我对这种分布式架构、这种反传统的商业模式感到非常兴奋,而且有机会真正改变世界,去追求一个不仅规模巨大,而且对世界有重要影响和意义的机会。
So I got really excited about the setup of this distributed architecture, this counter position business model, and then the opportunity to really put a dent in the universe and and go after an opportunity that not only was large in scale, but an importance and impact on the world.
回到人类繁荣、能源充裕、人均能源消耗、人均GDP以及它们之间的关联这个主题。
Back to the point around human prosperity, energy abundance, energy consumption per capita, GDP per capita, and that correlation.
我想向你介绍本期播客的赞助商,Ramp。
I wanna tell you about the presenting sponsor of this podcast, Ramp.
我最近读了很多关于SpaceX的文章。
I have been reading a lot about SpaceX lately.
SpaceX是全球最有价值的企业之一,其历史中的一个重要主题就是不断挑战和质疑你的成本。
SpaceX is one of the most valuable businesses in the world, and one of the main themes in the history of SpaceX is constantly attacking and questioning your cost.
Ramp帮助世界上许多最具创新精神的企业做到这一点。
Ramp helps many of the most innovative businesses in the world do exactly that.
使用Ramp的公司中,中等水平的企业能削减5%的开支。
The median company running on Ramp cuts their expenses by 5%.
SpaceX已经证明,对控制成本的执着追求实际上可以增加收入,因为你可以抓住原本无法抓住的机会。
And one thing SpaceX has demonstrated is that a religious dedication to controlling costs can help actually increase revenue because you can pursue opportunities you couldn't otherwise.
我们在Ramp的数据里也看到了这一点。
And we see that in the Ramp data too.
使用Ramp的公司,收入中位数也增长了16%。
The median company running on Ramp also grows their revenue by 16%.
所以,当你的公司用Ramp,而竞争对手不用的时候,你就有了巨大的竞争优势,而且这种优势会随着时间不断累积。
So when you're running your business on Ramp and your competitors are not, you have massive competitive advantage that compounds over time.
Ramp是唯一一个能让你的财务团队更高效、更开心的平台。
Ramp is the only platform designed to make your finance team faster and happier.
我认识的很多顶尖创始人和CEO都在用Ramp管理公司。
Many of the top founders and CEOs I know run their business on Ramp.
我自己也在用Ramp,你也应该试试。
I run my business on Ramp and you should too.
去ramp.com看看他们怎么帮你节省时间、节省成本,还能增加收入。
Go to ramp.com to learn how they can help your business save time, save money, and grow revenue.
网址就是ramp.com。
That is ramp.com.
我在读《从零到一》这本书时,发现了一句我一直以来最喜欢的名言。
I found one of my all time favorite quotes when I was reading the book Zero to One.
这句话是这么说的:我注意到的最强大的一个模式是,成功的人会在意想不到的地方发现价值,而他们这样做的方式是从第一性原理出发思考商业,而不是套用公式。
The quote says, the single most powerful pattern I have noticed is that successful people find value in unexpected places, and they do this by thinking about business from first principles instead of formulas.
这正是AppLovin在广告平台上所做的。
That is exactly what AppLovin has done with their advertising platform.
AppLovin能让你接触到移动游戏里超过十亿的潜在新客户。
AppLovin connects you with over a billion potential new customers inside mobile games.
AppLovin能让你获得用户的全神贯注。
AppLovin allows you to capture undivided attention.
AppLovin的广告是全屏视频广告,平均观看时长达到三十五秒。
AppLovin ads are full screen video ads that are watched for an average of thirty five seconds.
这种用户留存效果,其他广告平台根本没法比。
That is retention that blows other ad platforms out of the water.
而且你几分钟内就能在AppLovin上开始投放。
And you can launch on AppLovin in minutes.
你设定目标,AppLovin帮你实现。
You set the goal and AppLovin achieves it.
不需要复杂的设置,也不需要专业知识,AppLovin能快速扩展。
There's no complex setup, no expertise needed, and AppLovin scales quickly.
他们能把你的广告展示给超过十亿的潜在客户。
They can put your ads in front of over a billion potential customers.
其他企业已经看到了立竿见影的效果,日投放金额达到了数十万美元,收入增加了数百万。
Other businesses have seen immediate results, have scaled to hundreds of thousands of dollars of spend per day, and increased their revenue by millions.
所以你得赶紧开始,趁你的竞争对手还没都上AppLovin。
So you wanna get started quickly before all of your competitors are on AppLovin.
你可以通过访问applovin.com来开始。
And you can do that by going to applovin.com.
就是applovin.com。
That's applovin.com.
回到那个想法,你不是在卖电池,你几乎是在租它。
Back to, like, the idea that you're not selling batteries, you're almost like leasing it.
对吧?
Right?
就是说,就算他们想买,也买不到你的东西。
Like, they cannot buy it from you even if they wanted to.
你来之前我跟团队说,这之间好像有种奇怪的相似之处。
I was telling the crew before you got here, was like, there's just some kind of weird parallel.
我不知道扎克能不能理解,但大家都说,你应该多录几期关于霍华德·休斯的《创始人》节目。
I don't even know if this makes sense to Zach, but like everybody's like, oh, you should do more episodes of Founders on Howard Hughes.
我就说,我已经录过一两期了。
And I was like, I've done like one or two.
他确实挺有意思的,但如果你去了解的话,我觉得他爸比霍华德·休斯更有意思,对吧?
And he's actually interesting, but like if you read about like, I find his dad more interesting than Howard Hughes, right?
因为他爸当时在卖一种非常先进的钻头,对吧?
Because his dad was selling a really advanced drill bit, right?
在第二次石油繁荣时期,主要发生在得克萨斯州和俄克拉荷马州等地,老霍华德·休斯应该是当时最富有的人之一。
In the second oil boom that was taking place largely in Texas and Oklahoma and everything else, Howard Hughes, I think, senior was one of the richest people alive.
他的商业模式创新在于,你不能直接买
And his business model innovation was that you couldn't buy
他的东西。
it from him.
你只能
You had
租用。
to lease it.
所以他会提供维护服务,比如坏了,他会帮你磨锋利什么的。
So he would service it like it would break, he'd have to sharpen everything else.
基本上,你只能不断付钱,因为这东西你买不到。
Like you literally were essentially just had this reoccurring revenue coming in because you can't buy it from me.
你不能买了就走,然后我再也不见你。
You can't just buy it and take off and I never see you again.
你必须每个月付钱给我。
You have to pay me every month.
这样一来,钱就越滚越多,最后就跟印钞机似的。
Then that compounded and you just wind up printing cash.
而且霍华德·休斯用他爸爸公司的钱去拍电影、搞飞机什么的,我觉得这跟你现在做的事有异曲同工之妙。
And there was the cash from his dad's business that Howard Hughes used to do the movies and the planes and everything There's an interesting parallel to I think what you're doing.
我和贾斯汀从一开始想这个商业模式,就是先看客户想要什么。
The way that I thought about the business model, and Justin and I, the way we thought about it from the beginning, is it just starts with the customer and what they want.
大卫,如果我问你,你希望你的电力公司能给你带来什么?
If I ask you, David, what would you like out of your power company?
我猜你可能会说,我希望账单能降下来,而且永远不停电。
My guess is you'd say something like, I want my bill to go down and I want to never lose electricity.
除了这些,你还希望电力公司能给你什么?
Is there anything else you want out of your power company?
没有了。
No.
没有了。
No.
我们怎么帮你实现这个结果呢?
How do we deliver that outcome for you?
嗯,如果我把电池卖给你,你就不是批发电力市场的参与者了。
Well, if I sell you the battery, you're not a wholesale power market participant.
你不是合格的调度实体或负荷调度实体,你也没有套期保值和交易团队,你也不会去考虑商品价格。
You're not a qualified scheduling entity or a load scheduling entity, and you don't have a hedging team and a trading desk, you're not thinking about commodity prices.
对吧?
Right?
所以,当电网正常运行的时候,你实际上99%的时间都没法用那块电池来为自己谋利。
And so you can't actually use that battery 99% of the time when the goods up and running to your benefit.
你没法用它来降低你的电费。
You can't use it to lower your power prices.
它只是放在你家里,然后当停电发生时,太好了,你有备用电源,你花了20美元买的,可能觉得有点贵,但你还是很高兴。
It just sits there on your home and then when an outage happens, awesome, you have backup that you paid $20 for and you probably feel like you overpaid a little bit, but you're happy.
如果我们拥有这块电池,我们就可以在电网正常运行的那99%的时间里,把它当作批发电力市场的资产来使用。
By us owning the battery, we can use it the 99% of the time that the grid is up and running as a wholesale power market asset.
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然后我们可以利用这个价值来降低你的账单,降低你的价格,因为我们创造了价值。
Then we can leverage the value of that to lower your bill, to drop your price because we're creating value.
就像你家有一个盒子,它能赚钱,我们会以降低电费的形式和你分享这笔钱。
It's like we have a box on your house that is going to generate money, and we're going to share the money with you in the form of a lower electricity bill.
就是这么简单。
It's really that simple.
所以我们采用资产所有权模式,不是因为我们贪婪,或者我们真的就想拥有东西。
So the asset ownership model is not because we're greedy or we really just want to own things.
而是因为这是给客户提供最好产品的方式。
It's because it's the way to deliver the best product to the customer.
这才是最重要的。
That's all that matters.
对,在这个行业里,他们大多数情况下是垄断的,所以根本不怎么在乎客户。
Yeah, in an industry where they don't really give a shit about the customer because they're monopoly in most cases.
是的,这很复杂。
Yes, it's complicated.
首先,美国有管制州和放松管制州。
So first of all, there's regulated and deregulated states.
我们开始录音之前就聊过这个。
We were talking about this before we started recording.
这真的很有意思。
This is really interesting.
你能
Can you
解释一下这个吗?
explain this?
美国的管制州和放松管制州。
Regulated and deregulated states in The US.
这有点像历史课,但如果你回顾过去五十年,电力是美国少数几个没有完全放松管制的行业之一。
It's kind of a history lesson here, but if you look back over fifty years, electricity is one of the few industries in The US that did not get entirely deregulated.
航运、航空、电信、货运,还有九十年代末、两千年代初的电力行业。
Shipping, airlines, telecom, trucking, electricity in the late nineties, early two thousands.
实际上,加州是最早开始放松管制的。
Actually, in California, deregulation started there.
基本上,伊朗操纵了市场,搞垮了加州的电力市场,然后放松管制就完全停止了。
And basically, Iran manipulated the market and kind of busted the power market in California and deregulated deregulation, like, totally stopped.
而德州的里克·佩里和乔治·布什继续推动放松管制,德州的公共事业委员会也推行了这种竞争性的市场结构。
And Rick Perry and George Bush in Texas, like, carried the torch of deregulation, and the Public Daily Commission in Texas pushed this kind of competitive competitive market construct.
现在事情会变得更复杂。
Now it's gonna get even more complicated.
在德州,80%的市场是放松管制的。
In Texas, 80% of the market is deregulated.
还有20%的市场仍然是受管制的。
20% of the market is still regulated.
比如奥斯汀能源就是一家市政公用事业公司。
So Austin Energy is a municipal utility.
我们现在就在奥斯汀的办公室里,这里由奥斯汀能源供电。
So we sit here in Austin in our office that is served by Austin Energy.
我们不能成为奥斯汀能源的电力供应商。
We cannot be the electricity provider to Austin Energy.
圣安东尼奥的情况也一样。
Same thing in San Antonio.
那里的CPS是市政公用事业。
CPS is a municipal utility there.
乔治敦的情况也一样。
Same thing in Georgetown.
那里的乔治敦电力是市政公用事业。
Georgetown Electric is municipal utility there.
还有一类公用事业叫做合作社。
There's another category of utility called a co op or cooperative.
这更多是在农村地区,但现在有非常大的合作社,比如我们的客户CoServe,或者Pedernales Electric合作社,那是全国最大的合作社,也在得克萨斯州。
This is more in the rural areas, but now there's really big co operators like CoServe, who's a customer of ours, or Pedernales Electric Co op, that's the largest co op in the country also in Texas.
可以把它们看作是为成员利益运营的非营利组织。
Think of them as kind of nonprofits that operate for the benefit of the members.
所有成员,比如合作社的成员,都是合作社的股东,他们的职责就是降低电价。
All the members, like the cooperative, are owners of cooperative, and their job is to lower rates.
所以在得克萨斯州,你拥有80%的市场份额:休斯顿、达拉斯、北奥斯汀、Encore Center Point、AP区域,这些都是放松管制、竞争激烈的市场。
And so in Texas, you have 80 of the market: Houston, Dallas, North Austin, Encore Center Point, AP territory that is deregulated, competitive.
你可以注册成为能源零售商。
You can sign up to be an energy retailer.
你可以向任何人出售电力。
You can sell power to anybody.
有发电商运营天然气厂、燃煤电厂和核电站,他们通过像我们这样的零售供应商直接将电力卖给消费者。
You have the generators who operate the gas plants, coal plants, the nuclear plants, and they sell power through a retail provider like us directly to the consumer.
然后还有奥斯汀、圣安东尼奥和乔治敦的市政公用事业。
And then you have the municipal utilities in Austin, San Antonio and Georgetown.
还有合作社,比如CoServe、Guadalupe Valley Electric Co-op、Farmers Electric。
You have the co ops, CoServe, Guadalupe Valley Electric Co op, Farmers Electric.
这些都是我们的客户。
These are all customers of ours.
你说的客户是什么意思?
What do mean by customers of yours?
我们为公用事业公司建造电池组,他们使用的方式和我们一样。
So we build battery fleets for the utilities that they use in the same way that we do.
比如CoServ电力公司,我们已经为他们建造或者正在建造一个100兆瓦的电池组,而且很快会扩大规模,他们使用这些电池的方式和我们在竞争性市场中一样。
So for CoServ Electric, for example, we have built them or are in the process of building them 100 megawatt and soon to be expanded fleet of batteries that they use in the same way that we do in the deregulated markets.
他们在电价低的时候给电池充电。
They charge the batteries when the price of power is low.
他们在电价高的时候放电。
They discharge the batteries when the price of power is high.
他们通过差价赚钱。
They make money on the spread.
他们以降低价格的形式与会员分享差价。
They share that spread with their members in the form of lower prices.
那电池是他们自己安装的,还是你们负责安装?
And they're the ones installing your batteries, or you still did the installation?
我们帮他们安装了整个电池系统。
We installed the fleet for them.
所以是我们为他们建造的这个系统。
So we build them this fleet.
这就像他们过来说,我需要100兆瓦的公用事业规模电池。
So it's much like them going and saying, I need 100 MW of utility scale battery.
不是那种大型集装箱式电池,我们会在他们的服务区域内安装数千块电池,并给他们一个软件平台,网址是basepowercompany.com/coserve。
Instead of the big shipping container battery, we go put thousands of batteries on their service territory and we give them a piece of software, basepowercompany.com/coserve.
他们可以登录进去,看到整个电池系统,可以充电、放电,还可以安排系统的运行计划。这是一个批发电力资产,他们可以用它来降低电价,同时还能为他们的居民用户提供供电可靠性保障。
They can go in, they see their whole fleet, they can charge, discharge, they can schedule behavior of the fleet, and it's a wholesale power asset that they can use to lower prices, and then they get the reliability benefit for their homeowners.
好的。
Okay.
这正是我接下来想问的。
And so that was going to be my next question.
你们目前只给个人家庭安装电池,对吗?
You're only installing right now batteries on individual homes, correct?
没错。
That's right.
目前除了这个,你们还在做别的事情吗?
Are you doing anything else besides that at the moment?
今天,我们
Today, we're
只专注于住宅用户。
only focused on residential homes.
好的。
Okay.
回到市场结构的话题,在2000年代初期,有一波放松管制的浪潮。
Back to the market setup, in the early 2000s, you had this deregulation push.
得克萨斯州真的把这种趋势带到了中西部的一些州,比如俄亥俄和伊利诺伊,然后是东北部的宾夕法尼亚、新泽西、康涅狄格、马萨诸塞,还有纽约的部分地区,不过情况比较复杂,这些地方都在一定程度上放松了管制。
Texas really carried it towards a couple other states in the Midwest, Ohio and Illinois, then Northeast Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, parts of New York, but it's kind of complicated, all deregulated to an extent.
不是所有地方都这样,而且没有哪个州像得克萨斯州那样彻底。
Not all of them, and none of them really as far as Texas.
德州算是竞争最激烈、管制最少的市场。
Texas is kind of the most competitive and deregulated.
所以我们决定从这里开始。
That's why we decided to start here.
在放松管制的市场里,我们和零售能源供应商竞争,比如Jenn Taylor、Vistra、Constellation、NRG这些公司。
In relative to the deregulated markets, we compete with the retail energy providers, the Jenn Taylor's, Vistra, Constellation, NRG.
而在受管制的市场里,我们是公用事业公司的供应商,也是他们的合作伙伴。
And then in the regulated markets, we are a vendor to the utilities and we're a partner to them.
你说得完全对,他们没有动力去创新、建工厂、研发新型电池和技术,因为他们的盈利模式不是这样的。
And you're totally right, they don't have an incentive to innovate and go build a factory and come up with new kinds of batteries and technology, because that's not how they're set up to earn.
他们是受费率管制的。
They're rate regulated.
解释一下为什么他们没有动力这么做。
Explain why they don't have the incentive to do so.
对。
Yeah.
所以,如果有一个公用事业公司在某个服务区域拥有垄断权,比如说,假设太平洋煤气电力公司拥有整个加州,虽然这不完全准确。
So if you had a utility that had a monopoly ownership over a service territory, for example, let's say PG and E has all of California, which is not exactly true.
南加州有洛杉矶水电局。
There's LADWP in Southern California.
还有Soka Addison。
There's Soka Addison as well.
但为了举例说明,假设太平洋煤气电力公司垄断了整个加州。
But let's say PG and E, for the illustrative example, has a monopoly over all of California.
他们就可以无限提高费率,随意增加利润,这对消费者不利。
They can just raise rates indefinitely and just like jack profits, that would be bad for consumers.
所以,就有了费率基数的概念,由一个公共事业委员会来监管公用事业公司,告诉他们能建什么不能建什么,然后他们赚取受监管的回报,通常是他们投入的资本支出的9%,无杠杆。
And so instead, you have this concept of the rate base, where there's a public utility commission that kind of governs the utility, tells them what they can build and what they can't build, and then they earn a return that's regulated, and it's typically 9% unlevered on the CapEx they deploy.
所以他们去找监管机构,提交所谓的费率案件,就是说,我们需要建这些东西来满足需求,升级系统。
So they go to the regulator and they file what's called a rate case, which is like, we need to build all this stuff to meet demand and to upgrade the system.
监管机构说,可以,你们可以建。
The regulator says, Yes, you can build that.
然后他们就去建设,并从中获得回报。
Then they go build it and they earn a return on it.
他们没有动力去开发新技术。
There's no financial incentive for them to come with new technology.
他们唯一的动力就是扩大资产规模,建更多的东西。
Their only financial incentive is to go increase the size of the rate base and go build more assets.
所以我们出现,说我们是你们的技术合作伙伴。
And so we show up and say, we are your technology partner.
我们是你们外包的研发引擎。
We are your outsourced R and D engine.
我们会给你们带来更好的解决方案,让你们在不提高用户费率的情况下扩展基础设施。
We're going to bring to you better solutions so that you can scale your infrastructure without increasing rates for your ratepayers.
这就是我们服务受监管公用事业的方式。
That's how we serve the regulated utilities.
目前,我们的业务实际上是一个技术栈,这个我们可以深入讨论,它通过两种商业模式推向市场:受监管和不受监管的。
Today, our business is really one technology stack, which we can talk in-depth about, that is brought to market behind two business models, regulated and deregulated.
在非管制模式下,我们直接向房主卖电,在他们家周围安装电池,我们拥有并运营这些电池,然后把它投放到批发电力市场,直到电网正常运行。
The deregulated model, we directly sell power to the homeowner, we install a battery around their home, we own and operate it, we bid it into the wholesale power market till the grid's up and running.
当电网断电时,房主就能用上那块电池。
When the grid is down, the homeowner gets that battery.
那会是你的
That would be your
理想选择,如果你能打个响指就让整个国家都这样,那该多好。
preferred you would if you could snap your fingers, the entire country would be like that.
对吧?
Correct?
那会不会更好
Would that be Not better
对你的业务来说,或者从必要性上讲。
for your business or necessarily.
我们也很喜欢与公用事业合作的模式,因为它覆盖面广,而且与一个合作伙伴合作来服务大区域也有好处。
We love the utility partnership model too because it has really large reach and there are benefits to working with one counterparty to address a large service territory.
而且还有一些协同效应。
And there are some synergies.
比如说,你不会想让十根不同的电线都接到家里。
For example, you wouldn't want 10 different wires going to a home.
那样就太冗余了。
That would be redundant.
所以,电线杆和电线由监管机构管理是有道理的。
So it makes sense to have the poles and wires be regulated.
而且,我觉得能源市场有很多细微差别,所以很难说整个电网都应该被监管,或者整个电网都应该被放松监管。
And look, I think there's a lot of nuance in energy markets, and so it's hard to say the whole grid should be regulated, the whole grid should be deregulated.
这是一个非常地域性的问题。
It's a very geographically defined problem.
但放松监管的业务是直接面向消费者的零售电力,以及我们技术的批发市场参与。
But the dereg business is direct to consumer retail power and wholesale market participation of our technology.
受监管的业务则是我们作为公用事业公司的供应商。
The reg business is we are a vendor to the utilities.
我们建设这些电池储能系统,然后和他们签十年合同,他们随时间分期付款给我们。
We build in these battery fleets, and then we sign ten year contracts with them, and they pay us for that fleet over time.
这就是兆瓦即服务。
It's megawatts as a service.
这就是他们的业务模式。
That's what their business is.
兆瓦即服务。
Megawatts as a service.
我们建100兆瓦、500兆瓦、1000兆瓦,甚至吉瓦级,他们为此付费。
We build 100 megawatts, 500 megawatts, 1,000 megawatts, a gigawatt, and they pay us for that.
他们使用这些兆瓦,而我们通过他们长期向我们购买这些兆瓦来赚钱。
They use those megawatts, and we make money on them basically buying those megawatts from us over time.
好的。
Okay.
等等。
Wait.
再多说一点
Say something more
关于那个。
about that.
你说这些是十年期的合同?
You said these are ten year contracts?
是的。
Yeah.
这些通常是长期合同,我们为他们建一组电池,然后他们运营十年。
They're typically long duration contracts where we build them a fleet of batteries, and they operate them for ten years.
为什么长期这么重要?
Why is the long duration important?
嗯,这些项目资本密集度很高。
Well, they're highly capital intense.
对你来说还是对他们来说?
For you or for them?
对我们来说,因为是我们建的。
For us because we're building them.
所以长期合同能保证我们的现金流稳定,这样我们就能去融资。
And so the long duration contract gives us certainty of cash flows, which we can use to finance.
我觉得现在对你的业务更了解了。
I think I have a better understanding of your business now.
肯定是非监管业务比监管业务更清楚。
Definitely for the the non regulated than the regulated.
我想聊聊你是怎么看待公司建设的。
I wanna talk about, like, how you think about company building.
你从小就对创业特别着迷。
You've been obsessed with entrepreneurship since you were a kid.
你说你八年级还是七年级就开始创业了,差不多那时候吧?
You started your first company, you said, in eighth grade, seventh grade, something like that?
八年级。
Eighth grade.
对。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
说说
Talk
关于我的表兄弟们,他们在上高中,经验比我多一点,但也不多。
about My cousins who were in high school, had a little more experience than me, but not much.
好的。
Okay.
我从小就开始研究这个了。
I've been studying this since I I was mean, a little kid.
我是说,我亲眼见证了一位最伟大的企业家之一,至今仍是如此。
I mean, I had a front row seat to one of the guys, but one of greatest entrepreneurs of all time, still operating as one of the greatest entrepreneurs of all time.
而且学习的速度,我每天都能从他那里学到东西,我们关系非常亲密,你也知道。
And the rate of learning I I just get to learn from him every day, and we're incredibly close, as you know.
我们会交流想法,聊他的生意,也聊我们的生意,互相给反馈,有分歧就争论,特别有意思。
And We compare notes about and we talk about his business, and we talk about our business, and we provide each other with feedback, we disagree, and we argue, and it's a ton of fun.
所以从记事起,我一直在学习怎么打造公司,既通过那种方式,也在投资岗位上学习。
And so I've been studying the art of company building for as long as I can remember, both in that context and then also in the investing roles.
投资其实就是试图预测未来,同时要理解什么造就了一家伟大的公司,以及哪些公司会在那样的未来中胜出。
I mean, investing is really just trying to predict the future in the context of understanding what makes a great company and which ones are going to win that version of the future.
所以对我来说,这感觉就像是成为企业家的完美训练场。
And so it feels like, you know, it felt like to me the perfect training ground to become an entrepreneur.
你之前说你父亲迈克尔·戴尔是你的英雄。
So you said earlier that your dad, Michael Dell, is your hero.
他也是我的英雄之一。
He's one of my heroes too.
我昨天还跟他聊过。
I actually talked to him yesterday.
有趣的是,他看起来特别和善,但骨子里特别争强好胜,特别想赢,所以很难说清楚他到底有多友好,又有多好胜。
And the funny thing about that is, I mean, he's got this such a like a friendly UI, but he's so competitive and so like determined to win that there's such a I I don't even know how to, like, discuss a position between, like, how friendly he is and just how fiercely competitive he is.
既然你提到他,我想说说你之前跟我讲过的那个叫“老爸终端”的东西。
Since you mentioned him, I wanna bring up something you told me one time that you called the Dad Terminal.
你能解释一下什么是“老爸终端”吗?
Can you say what the Dad Terminal is?
可以。
Yeah.
你开玩笑说我是个有财务头脑的人,而彭博终端显然是金融行业的人用来提问、获取信息、思考和评估机会的不可思议的技术。
You joked that I'm a financially minded person, and the Bloomberg Terminal is obviously this incredible technology that people in the finance industry use to ask questions and get information and think and analyze opportunities.
而“老爸终端”就是我的版本,我会打电话给老爸,我们会聊商业话题、战略目标,还有我面临的挑战。
And the Dad Terminal is my version of that where I call up Dad, and we have conversations about business topics and strategic objectives and challenges that I'm facing.
这是最有趣的事,因为,你知道,除了我妈,他比任何人都更了解我,也更了解我脑子里在想什么。
And it's the most fun it's the most fun thing ever because, you know, he has more context than anyone but my mom probably on on me and what's going on in my brain.
而且他对业务有很多了解,因为我们经常聊天。
And he's got a lot of context on the business because we talk all the time.
他经营过一家垂直整合、资本密集型的面向消费者的硬件公司。
And he scaled a vertically integrated capital intense hardware company, consumer facing.
经营企业之间有很多相似之处。
There's lot of simulators between how to businesses.
所以我把它当作一个向他学习的机会。
And so I use it as an opportunity to learn from him.
我觉得时不时地,你知道,他会得到一些新的视角,或者我会问一些有趣的问题。
I like to think that every once in a while, you know, he gets a new perspective or I ask an interesting question.
他也能从我这里学到一些东西。
He learns a thing from me.
我想问,比如,最后一次是什么时候
I was gonna ask, like, when's the last
你给他讲了一个对他来说全新的情况?
time you presented him a situation that was new to him?
我
I
觉得这种情况经常发生。
like to think it happens pretty often.
你得问他。
You have to ask him.
对。
Yeah.
但挺有意思的。
But it's fun.
我的意思是,我们互相挑战、互相推动,基本上不花时间庆祝,几乎所有时间都在解决问题。
I mean, we challenge each other and push each other, and and it's we spend basically no time, like, celebrating, you know, and and basically all the time trying to solve problems.
你说得对。
And you're right.
他非常好胜,而且极其专注,但他总是带着微笑去做。
He's totally competitive and incredibly focused, but he does it with a smile.
我也试着这样做。
And I and I try to do the same thing.
而且我觉得你跟我们团队的人聊聊,他们会告诉你,我这个人挺较真、挺好胜,而且非常专注。
And I think you talk to the team here, like, they would tell you that I'm pretty intense and pretty competitive and quite focused.
但我做这些事的时候是带着笑容的,我尽量找乐子,而且我对工作非常认真,但我不会
But I do it with a smile, I try to have fun, and I take, you know, the job really seriously, but I don't
把自己看得太重。
take myself that seriously.
你刚才提到了好几次垂直整合。
You mentioned vertical integration a couple times.
为什么这这么重要?
Why is that so important?
只有当你打的是成本战的时候,这才重要。
It's only important if you're playing a cost focused game.
垂直整合不是因为好玩或者酷才做的。
It's not vertical integration because it's fun or because it's cool.
是因为我们想在成本上竞争。
It's because we're trying to compete on cost.
垂直整合是赢得成本战的好策略。
Vertical integration is a great strategy to win on cost.
电力是一种商品,最好的商品形式就是最便宜的,如果你要提供这样的商品,你就必须进行垂直整合。
Electricity is a commodity, the best form of commodity is the cheapest one, and if you're going to deliver that, you've to vertically integrate.
所以这就是我们垂直整合的原因。
So that's why we vertically integrate.
当你
When you
刚开始创办公司的时候,你是怎么从公司不存在,到决定要创建一个全新的、垂直整合的电力公司呢?
first started the company though, how do you go from this company doesn't exist to I'm going to create a comp like a new, essentially, power company that's vertically integrated?
大量的阅读、写作、思考,还有和我的联合创始人贾斯汀,以及我们的第一位员工贾里德,还有达娜和科尔,以及早期加入公司的那些人一起反复讨论。
A lot of reading, writing, thinking, and, you know, deliberation with my cofounder Justin and and, you know, Jared, who's our first hire, and and Dana and Cole and the early people that that joined the company.
我觉得我们到现在还是这样做的。
I think we still do this to this day.
我们做了很多爬行、走路、跑步这样的渐进式推进,大量迭代,大量测试和学习。
We do a lot of crawl, walk, run, a lot of iterating, a lot of testing and learning.
而且我认为,我和贾斯汀一开始就相信,能源行业正在经历一场范式转变,电池储能在这种转变中是一项非常有价值的技术,而在美国建立一个高度优化的电池组组装业务,将会是一个非常有利的定位。
And I think we started, Justin and I, with a belief that the energy industry was going through a paradigm shift, that battery storage was a really valuable technology in that paradigm shift, and that building a battery pack, highly optimized battery pack assembly business in The US was going to be a really strong position to be in.
那为什么这么看重这一点呢?
That's about Why on that point?
因为电池有
Because batteries had a
很大的价值,而且基本上大部分利润都被原始设备制造商拿走了。
lot of value and there was a lot of margin being captured by the OEMs, basically.
那为什么在这里生产很重要呢?
So why is it important to manufacture it here though?
为了控制供应链。
To control the supply chain.
其实重点不在于它是在这个国家还是那个国家生产,而在于把工程和制造结合起来,在你设计产品的地方生产,让设计和制造的工程师紧密合作。对。
It's less about physically where it is being in this country or another country and the fact that coupling engineering and manufacturing and actually making the thing where you design the thing and having the engineers that make the thing and the engineers that design the thing Yeah.
嗯,我们聊过,你有
Well, we talked you have
很多,我之前做过一期关于埃隆的节目,讲他是怎么工作的。
a lot of I did this episode on Elon, how Elon works.
我觉得这是《Founders》有史以来下载量最高的一集。
I think it's the most downloaded episode of Founders ever.
你身上有很多SpaceX的文化或理念的影子,我从你这里听到的。
You have there's a lot of, like, SpaceX culture or ideas that I hear from you.
对。
Yeah.
而且很明显,贾斯汀当时也在场。
And obviously, Justin was there.
对。
Yeah.
是的。
Like Yeah.
我的意思是,贾斯汀,贾斯汀在他职业生涯的形成期就在那里。
I mean, Justin Justin was there for kind of the formative years of his career.
当然,还有安德鲁·罗尔。
Obviously, Andrew Roll as well.
我们的第一个员工贾里德,也参与了他职业生涯的成长阶段。
Jared, our first hire, was there for the formative years of his career.
琼斯也一样,他是我们第四个招进来的。
Same with Jones, who's hire number four.
我们这里有很多来自SpaceX的人。
We've got a lot of SpaceX people here.
这是一家我非常敬佩的公司。
It's a company that I deeply admire.
我认识了那里的首席财务官布雷特·约翰逊。
I've gotten to know Brett Johnson, the CFO there.
我非常敬佩他和格温,当然,埃隆是有史以来最伟大的技术专家。
Really admire him and Gwen, and of course, Elon is the greatest technologist of all time.
我觉得SpaceX内部的文化、运营节奏,以及他们专注于关键路径、扫清障碍、朝着目标前进的能力,所有这些都围绕着他们的使命,这非常鼓舞人心,也是我们试图效仿的。
And I think the culture inside of SpaceX and the operational cadence and the way their ability to focus on the critical path and unblock things in their path to get to their goals that are all oriented around their mission is super inspiring and something we've tried to replicate.
而且他们真的很难在办公空间上与之竞争。
And they're really hard to compete against office space.
我觉得是去年,或者大概六个月前吧。
I think it was here last year or like maybe six months ago.
然后你会说,对,那边那栋楼,我们差点就签了租约,结果马斯克来了,把它抢走了。
And you're like, yeah, that building over there, we almost had a lease and then Elon came in and swooped it
抢走了。
in.
对,确实。
They Yeah.
挺遗憾的,但只能往前看,不能往后看。
It was a bummer, but you can only look forward, not backwards.
所以我们找到了新地方。
So we found a new spot.
其实会更好。
It's going be better, actually.
我们要建一个园区,包括制造、工程,所有东西都在这个……
We're going to build up a campus with manufacturing, engineering, everything in Is this
是机场旁边那个吗?
the one out by the airport?
对。
Yeah.
那多聊聊这个吧。
So talk more about this.
好的。
Yeah.
业务在增长,我们得扩大生产规模。
So business is growing and we've got to expand our manufacturing footprint.
当然,人员也在增加。上次你来的时候,我们好像还只在一楼。
Of course, the headcount too, I mean, last time you were here, think we were just on the 1st Floor.
现在三层楼都满了。
Now we're on all three floors.
很快我们就会填满
We'll soon fill
把整个地方都填满了。
up the whole thing.
哥们,这增长太疯狂了。
Dude, the growth is crazy.
我翻了你们公司的月度报告,是啊,确实如此。
So I was reading through all of your company monthly Yeah, it did.
就像,好吧,我们一天做1.3个或者6个,然后我跳着看,直接翻到结尾,发现这些产品到处都是,成千上万。
It's like, okay, we're doing 1.3 a day or six a day, and then I skipped, I went to the end and we have tens of thousands of these things everywhere.
这确实很厉害。
It's pretty impressive.
就是疯狂的专注,不懈的执行力,然后每天、每周、每月都努力进步一点点,这样就能做成很多事。
It's just maniacal focus, relentless execution, and try to get a little bit better every day, every week, every month, you can get a lot done.
业务增长很快,我们必须扩大生产规模。
Business is growing a ton, we've got to expand our manufacturing footprint.
员工人数也在增加,我们非常重视面对面工作,让所有人都在同一个地方,你知道的,一个团队,一个梦想,一种文化。
Our headcount is growing, and we feel really strongly about in person work, having everyone in the same place, you know, one team, one dream, one culture.
不是那种,哦,工厂的人和办公室的人分开的。
It's not like, oh, the factory people and the office people.
而是一个公司,我们一起吃午饭。
It's like one company, and we eat lunch together.
我们一起相处。
We spend time together.
所以让所有人都在同一个地方工作真的很重要。
And so having everyone co located is really important.
对。
Yeah.
而且你的办公桌就在这儿。
And your desk is right here.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
就跟其他人一样。
Like in just the same as anybody else's.
对。
Yeah.
当然。
Of course.
有一个
There's a
很多,再说,我对埃隆经营公司的方式非常着迷,他有一些我觉得非常简单的想法,但它们都能协同运作。
lot again, like, I I I am fascinated by the way Elon runs his companies, and then he has a what I feel is, like, very simple ideas, but they all work together.
显然,他在做很复杂的事情。
Obviously, he's doing complex shit.
对。
Yeah.
但这并不是什么高深莫测的事。
But it's not like rocket science.
私人办公室太没意思了。
Private offices are lame.
我想待在热闹的地方。
Like, I wanna be in the thick of it.
我想和大家在一起。
I wanna be with everyone.
我想听到周围的声音。
I wanna overhear stuff.
我也想让大家听到我。
I want people to overhear me.
我希望大家觉得可以随时来我桌前问我问题。
I want people to feel like they can come to my desk and ask me questions.
这样就是更好。
And it's just it's just better.
更有趣。
It's more fun.
我喜欢,我热爱这个团队。
I like I love the team.
我喜欢和他们在一起。
I like being with them.
没有必要躲在一个私人办公室里。
There's no reason to, like, hide away in a in a private office.
而且,也不该享受特殊待遇。
And also, don't deserve special treatment.
我和实习生一样都是团队的一员,就像一周前刚入职的那个人一样,也像第三个加入的成员一样,我们都在同一个团队里。
I'm on the team just like the interns are on the team, just like, you know, the the the person who started a week ago was on team, just like the third hire is on the team and we're all on the same team together.
我们吃同样的
We eat the
食物。
same food.
我们拥有同样的
We have the
一样的办公桌。
same desk.
我们用一样的工具。
We use the same tools.
我觉得这才是正确的做事方式。
I just think that's the right way to operate.
所以,是的,这个新设施会很棒。
And so, yeah, this new facility is going be amazing.
我们会把所有东西都放在一起。
We're going have everything co located.
你看,去圆石城,我想你去过。
And look, mean, go to Round Rock, and I think you've been.
你看到那个戴尔的设施。
You see the the the Dell facility.
我的意思是,很久以前,大家都在那里。
I mean, a long time, everyone was there.
当然,现在公司已经是全球规模了,到处都有办公室,但我看到这种做法对其他公司效果很好,我觉得对我们也会有效。
And of course, now the company is at global scale and they've got offices all over the place, but I've seen that work really well for other companies and I think it'll work well
对我们来说。
for us.
好的。
Okay.
那多讲讲组织结构吧。
So talk about more of the structure.
你们不把设计、工程和制造分开。
You don't separate design, engineering, and manufacturing.
都在同一个地方?
It's all in one location?
对。
Right.
好的。
Okay.
这些现在就在街对面进行吗?
And that's taking place right now across the street?
是的。
Yeah.
我是说,你往那边走两分钟就能到一号基地工厂,你会看到那里有一条小车道,工程师们整天来回走动。
So I mean, you could walk for two minutes that way and you'll hit Base Factory 1, and you'll see there's like a little driveway here, and you'll see engineers walking back and forth all day long.
他们大多数人都有滑板车和高尔夫球车之类的。
And most of them have scooters and golf carts and things like that.
产品就是在那里制造的。
And that's where the product is made.
而这里则是项目设计的地方。
This is where the project is designed.
所以来回就是走路、坐高尔夫球车或者滑板车。
And so it's a walk or a golf cart or a scoot to get back and forth.
而且,能够设计一个零件,走到工厂去看零件如何组装,找出故障模式并修复,然后和每天见面的人快速迭代,这种能力真的很重要。
And just having the ability to go design a part, walk over to the factory, see how the part is being assembled, figure out the failure mode and fix it, and iterate quickly with people that you see every single day.
这真是极大地加速了执行的速度。
It's just a massive accelerant and pace of execution.
有意思的是
It's funny
对我来说,因为我读了很多关于强盗大亨、工业革命的书,我觉得在美国历史上有一段,大概五十年到七十年的时间,我们把这些东西给忘了。
to me because I've read a ton about the robber barons, the industrial revolution, and I feel like there was a good, I don't know, fifty, seventy year chunk in American history where we forgot these things.
但你描述的方式正是福特当年做的,也是卡地亚做的。
But the way you describe it is exactly what Ford used to do, It's what Cartier did.
这就像美国所有工业在搬走之前所做的那样。
It's like what all of industry in The United States before it was moved out used to do.
就好像我们有点失去了这些知识,现在又回来了。
And it's like we had we kinda, like, lost that knowledge, and now it's, like, coming back.
对,没错,伙计们。
It's like, yeah, guys.
这正是他们以前做的。
It's exactly what they used do.
我们为什么不也这么做呢?
Why don't we just do it that way too?
完全同意。
Totally.
而且我们有很多马斯克的公司,特斯拉和SpaceX,但还有,你知道,其他一些公司。
And and we have a lot of the Elon companies, Tesla and SpaceX, but also, you know, and a role.
我们要感谢这些公司培养了一整批工程师,教他们怎么造硬件产品,怎么扩大生产规模,怎么搭建供应链,而且我们之前没有——很高兴你提到这个。
We we have these companies to thank for training a whole cohort of engineers on how to build hardware products, how to scale manufacturing, how to ramp a supply chain, and we didn't like I'm glad you brought that up.
我前几天在想,
Was thinking the
就在想,
other day, was like, could
你
you
能想象如果马斯克不在这个领域,美国会有多大的缺口吗?
imagine the deficit that America would have if Elon didn't exist in this domain?
软件方面我们肯定没问题,但就这个人,太关键了。
Software we'd be crushing, but this, like this one guy.
我觉得这是任何人给人类做出的最了不起的贡献。
It's the most incredible contribution I think anyone has ever made to humanity.
不只是他建立的公司,还有他培养的工程师,这些人后来都去创建了其他伟大的公司。
It's not just the company that he's built, but the engineers that he's trained that have gone on to build other great companies.
就像我说的,在我看来,他是有史以来最伟大的技术专家。
Like said, he's the greatest technologist of all time in my opinion.
能雇到他培养过、跟他工作过、从他那里学到东西的人,真是巨大的优势。
It's been a massive advantage being able to hire people that he's trained that have worked with him, that have learned from him.
他们把最好的经验带到这里。
They bring their best practices here.
然后公平地说,我们会加以调整。
And then to be fair, we adapt them.
对吧?
Right?
我们做事的方式非常基础。
Like, we do things in a very base way.
我们有各种基础节奏、海龟图、仪表盘,还有我们的北极星指标。我们来深入聊聊这个。
We have all kinds of things like base pace and, you know, the turtles and the the dashboards and, you know, our north stars Let's go into this.
所有这些,
And all these things
我们来深入聊聊这个。
Let's go into this.
这些都是我们文化的核心,是从我们团队的运作方式和解决问题的方式中自然涌现出来的。
That are that are core to our culture that just kind of bubbled up out of the way that our team operates and the way that we solve problems.
其中很多是受到SpaceX和特斯拉等公司的启发,但也有很多是我们自己独有的。
And many of them are inspired by companies like SpaceX and Tesla, but a lot of them are kind of organic to us.
好的。
Okay.
那今天就讲讲这些吧。
So explain some of these things today.
所以你看,我觉得从最早的时候开始,你可以回去看看我们写的一些东西,我一直非常专注于少数几个重要的目标,这些目标非常清晰,全公司都能理解。
So look, I think we, from the earliest days, and you can go back and look at some of the artifacts in writing of this, I've been very focused on a small number of important goals that are very clear and understandable by the whole company.
我们一直对这些目标负责。
We've been accountable to those goals.
比如我们每个月都会写更新,说说我们做了什么。
Like we write updates every month on, like, what do we do?
我们没做什么。
What do we not do?
下个月打算做什么。
What are we gonna do next month?
我们就是这么做的。
And we do that.
你知道吗,我已经连续写了三年半的月度更新,每个月都写。
You know, I've written one of these monthly updates now for the last, you know, three and a half years every single month.
从来没有落下过一个月。
Never missed a month.
没打算停。
Don't plan to.
坐下来把整件事写下来,对我来说其实是一种宣泄。
It's a huge it's cathartic for me to sit down and kinda write the whole thing.
而且我觉得,对公司来说,有这样一份记录,能清楚知道发生了什么,是很有价值的。
And I think it's an asset for the company to have this account of, okay, what happened?
下个月会发生什么?
What's going to happen next month?
这些更新是很好的招聘工具。
They're a great recruiting tool.
也是很好的融资工具。
They're a great fundraising tool.
从一开始,我就是用一份备忘录创办公司的。
From the beginning, started the company with a memo.
我想你应该读过。
I think you've read it.
有十页。
It's 10 pages.
从头到尾,Base Power是什么?
Top to bottom, what is Base Power?
它为什么存在?
Why does it exist?
我们要解决什么问题?
What is the problem that we're solving?
我们打算怎么做?
How are we going do it?
你从哪里得到
Where did you get
写那份最初备忘录的想法的?
the idea to write that initial memo?
我就是那种必须写清楚才能想清楚的人。
I'm just the kind of person that has to write clearly to think clearly.
我一直是个喜欢写作的人。
I've always been a writer.
我很喜欢写作。
I loved writing.
我也很喜欢阅读,跟你一样。
I love reading, much like you.
可能这种写备忘录的文化,有一部分来自金融和投资领域,就是要把想法写在纸上,但对我来说,如果写不清楚,我就没法想清楚。
Maybe some of the memo culture stuff comes from finance and investing and and getting your ideas out on paper, but I just can't think clearly if I don't write clearly.
所以那份备忘录其实是我自己需要写的。
And so I needed the memo for myself.
所以你在这儿,就随身带着这个小笔记本,
So you just in here, you like carry this like little notebook with you
也是。
too.
对。
Yeah.
我
I've
一直都用笔记本。
always done my notebooks.
我有两本笔记本。
I have like two notebooks.
一本红色的,用于工作;一本黑色的,用于思考。红色那本我在办公室开会时随身带着,黑色那本放在家里,用来做战略规划。等等。
I have the red notebook, which is in the business, and I have my black notebook, which is on the business, and the red notebook I'm carrying around in the office meetings, and the black notebook is for at home, and I'm trying to strategize and Wait.
解释一下“在业务中”和“在业务上”的区别。
Explain the difference in and on.
我觉得这是
So I think it's
一个关于“在业务中工作”和“在业务上工作”的概念。
a concept of working in the business and working on the business.
在业务中工作,就是处理眼前的问题,解决当务之急。
Working in the business is I'm blocking and tackling and solving problems that are blocking us today.
我在处理人事问题、产品问题,以及那些迫在眉睫的紧急事务。
I'm trying to figure out personnel problems and product problems and acute issues that are near term.
而经营业务则是思考六个月后、十二个月后的情况,进行战略推演和棋局布局。
And then working on the business is thinking six months out, twelve months out and strategic wargaming and chess playing.
我很想看看那个笔记本,
I would love to read that notebook,
顺便说一下。
by the way.
如果你不想分享的话,那可能涉及隐私。
It might be private if you don't want to.
里面确实有些好东西。
There's some good stuff in there.
但也有各种各样的
There's also all kinds
坏东西在里面。
of bad stuff in there.
我知道。
I know.
这就是我
That's I
我尽量把一天的时间划分得很清楚,比如,在办公室的时候,我几乎完全是在处理业务上的事。
try to segment out my day with very specific like, okay, when I'm in the office, I'm largely almost always exclusively working in the business.
然后我每天晚上基本九点就离开办公室。
And then I leave the office basically at 9PM every night.
如果让我自己决定,我会待得更久,但我有一个我爱的妻子,我想在她睡觉前多陪陪她。
If it were up to me, I'd stay longer, but I have a wife who I love and I want to spend time with before she goes to bed.
我九点离开,然后去陪她,直到她睡觉。
I'd leave at nine, I go hang out with her till she goes to bed.
然后十点到十一点,或者九点到十点,我大概都和她在一起,然后她就去睡了。
And then ten to eleven or nine to ten, I'm with her roughly and she goes to bed.
然后我打开那个黑色笔记本,坐下来,手机放在另一个房间,电脑也放在另一个房间,我就专注于思考战略,什么是最重要的,以及我们有没有遗漏什么。
And then I open up the black notebook and I sit and my phone's in another room, my computer's in another room, and I just focus on strategy and what's most important and what are we not thinking about.
有时候我确实有很具体的事情要做,比如需要写一份备忘录的提纲,或者接下来几周要发生的大事,我得想清楚,比如一个大问题。
And sometimes there's very specific things I need to do, which is like I need to go write an outline of a memo or of a big thing that's happening in next couple of weeks that I have to figure out, like a big problem.
有时候我就坐在那儿,完全不知道要写什么,就盯着空白页,直到脑子里冒出点什么。
And sometimes I just sit and I have no idea what I'm going to write about, and I just stare at a page until something pops into my head.
这个过程确实产生了一些最好的想法。
And that process has yielded some of the best ideas that have that have come.
我觉得,通过有意识地在一天中分配时间,专门用来做业务上的事,而不是业务内的事,这很有帮助,而且实际上用一本不同颜色的笔记本也有帮助。
And I think by, like, deliberately allocating time in the day towards working on the business versus in the business, it helps you and, like, actually physically having a different notebook that's, like, a different color.
我打开黑色笔记本,就想着,该发挥创意了。
And I open the black notebook, and I'm like, it's time to get creative.
就像那样,而且我不在办公室。
Like that, and I'm not in the office.
我在家,已经下班了。
I'm like at home, it's after hours.
这种划分——什么时候做业务内的事,什么时候做业务上的事——真的帮了我很多。
And that just has really helped me that segmentation of when to work in the business and when to work on the business.
你觉得用笔写在纸上这种传统方式有什么特别之处吗?
Do you think there's something special about it being analog that you're actually writing with pen to paper?
当然有。
For sure.
我试过用电脑,但好点子全没了。
I've tried to move to computer and all the good ideas go away.
也不是完全没了。
I mean, not entirely.
对吧?
Right?
实际上,我早上起得很早,早上六点到八点是我效率最高的时候。
And like what happens is, I wake up pretty early in the mornings, and, you know, six to 8AM is kind of my most productive time.
但那是早上的事。
But that I'm in the morning.
我早上基本上是在做前一天晚上给自己安排的工作。
I'm I'm kind of like doing the work that I assigned myself the night before.
所以我就想,好吧,得解决这个,解决那个。
So I'm like, okay, gotta solve this, solve that.
然后我打开电脑,那些都在电脑上。
And then I open the computer, and that's all on the computer.
然后我就在实际执行了。
And then I'm like actually executing.
但晚上有那么特别的三十到六十分钟,拿着笔和纸,没有干扰。
But there's like this special, you know, thirty to sixty minutes in the evening with a pen and a paper and no distractions.
收不到通知。
I can't get a notification.
接不到电话。
I can't get a call.
就是完全专注,我真的很享受那种状态。
Like, I'm just focused, and I really enjoy that.
我相信有些人用数字工具也能专注,但对我来说,用纸笔真的让我思路更清晰、更专注。
And I'm sure some people have the have the capacity to focus, you know, using digital tools, but, like, the analog is really clarifying and focusing for me.
Deel 就是最优秀的创始人如何把全世界变成自己的人才库。
Deal is how the best founders turn the world into their talent pool.
我研究历史上最伟大的创始人如何运作已经有十年了。
I've been studying how history's greatest founders operate for a decade.
他们都有一个共同点,那就是明白招聘和雇佣最优秀的人才是你最重要的优先事项。
And one thing they all have in common is they understand that recruiting and hiring the very best talent is your most important priority.
A 级人才会识别其他 A 级人才,这就是为什么像 Ramp、Shopify、Eleven Labs、Uber 和 DoorDash 这样的顶级公司都使用 Deel。
A players recognize other a players, which is why top companies like Ramp, Shopify, Eleven Labs, Uber, and DoorDash all use Deel.
我认识的许多顶级创始人在使用 Deel 的产品后,都亲自投资了 Deel。
Many of the top founders I know have personally invested in Deel after using their product.
他们发现,Deel 是全球招聘基础设施方面做得最好的公司。
And what they discovered is that Deel is the best company in the world at building infrastructure for global hiring.
Deel 会帮助你的企业在全球范围内招聘、支付和管理任何员工,这样你就能留住最优秀的人才,并把剩下的时间专注于你最擅长的事情——为客户创造价值。
Deel will help your business hire, pay, and manage any worker anywhere in the world so you can retain the best talent anywhere and spend the rest of your time focusing on what you do best, delivering value to your customers.
Eleven Labs 的创始人对 Deel 能为你的公司带来的价值有一个很好的描述。
The founder of Eleven Labs has a great description of the value Deel can give your company.
他说,我们创建Eleven Labs就是为了打破语言和沟通的障碍。
He said, we built Eleven Labs to break down language and communication barriers.
有了Deel,我们可以在全球各地招聘和支持优秀人才,从而加速创新,把更多声音、故事和想法带到世界的每个角落。
With Deel enabling us to hire and support exceptional talent anywhere, we can accelerate our innovation and bring more voices, stories, and ideas to every corner of the world.
超过4万家企业信任Deel。
Deel is trusted by over 40,000 businesses.
今天就去deal.com/senra了解一下他们如何帮助你的企业吧。
Learn how they can help your business today by going to deal.com/senra.
网址是deal.com/senra。
That is deal.com/senra.
所以回到北极星这个概念。
So go back to this idea of North Star.
这就是让整个公司聚焦于几个简单的目标。
This is a handful of simple ideas that you're getting the entire company to focus on.
你怎么描述?今年我们必须完成三件事,才能保持在实现使命的轨道上。
How do you describe There's three things that we must accomplish this year to stay on path towards our mission.
所以它已经成为了全球最大的分布式电池车队,也是全球增长最快的电池车队,以最低的成本部署电池,因为在商品业务中,成本决定一切。
So it's become the largest distributed battery fleet in the world, the fastest growing battery fleet in the world, land the batteries at the lowest land it cost because it costs everything in a commodity business.
而且
And
那“部署”是什么意思?
then land mean?
有
Have
以每千瓦时的成本,比任何人都便宜地把电池接入电网。
gets the batteries on the grid on a per kilowatt hour basis cheaper than anyone.
那你怎么影响这个价格呢?
And how do you affect the price of that?
实际上,你如何影响硬件、安装成本、客户获取成本、所有开销以及运营成本,才能把电池部署到位。
The How do you actually of the hardware, the installation cost, the customer acquisition cost, all the overhead, and the operations to get the battery there.
好的。
Okay.
所以就是快速增长的电池车队,最低成本的兆瓦时,基本上就是这样,然后是财务可持续性,基本上就是单位经济性的盈利能力。
So it's fast growing battery fleet, lowest cost megawatts, basically, and then financial sustainability, which is basically profitability of unit economics.
对吧?
Right?
就是这三件事。
Those are the three things.
这三个就是北极星指标。
And those are the three North Star.
如果你走进办公室,在办公室中间楼梯旁边,有一张海报。
And if you walk in the office, in the middle of the office by the stairs, there's a poster.
很漂亮。
Beautiful.
那是我们设计团队特意精心设计的,但上面只有那三个北极星指标。
It's well designed by our design team on purpose, but it only has the three north stars.
同样的海报也挂在工厂中间,每个人每天都会经过看到。
And that same poster is in the middle of the factory, and everyone walked by every single day.
年初的时候,我给团队发了封邮件,说,看,这就是我们的三个北极星目标。
And at the beginning of the year, I sent out an email to the team, I and said, look, these are our three North Stars.
如果今年我们能把这三大目标都搞定,那我们就能朝着使命稳步前进。
If we get these three things done, these three these three things done, this year, we're going to be on track towards our mission.
所以大家心里都清楚,要想实现这个使命,这三件事是必须完成的。
And so people know, okay, if we want to achieve this mission, these are the three things we have to get done.
然后,北极星目标下面还有一些具体的目标,这些是我们为了实现北极星必须完成的具体任务。
And then there are goals that come downstream of the North Stars that are specific things that we have to accomplish to hit the North Star.
所以我们内部做的所有事情,都围绕着这些北极星目标。
And so everything we're doing internally is focused on those North Stars.
我们就有这么明确的北极星目标。
So we have these very specific North Stars.
我们还有月度更新,用来协调团队。
We have these monthly updates that organize the team.
然后我们就一门心思地专注于扫清实现这些北极星目标的关键路径上的障碍,这样我们就能保持在使命的轨道上。
And then we're just maniacally focused on unblocking whatever is on critical path towards achieving those north stars, which keep us in track for that mission.
所以我提到了那个乌龟。
So I mentioned the turtle.
这个乌龟就是我们用的一个工具,而且还有别的工具。
So the turtle is this this device that we use, and there's devices.
对吧?
Right?
就像一些工具。
There's like tools.
乌龟是个工具。
Turtle's a tool.
指标和仪表盘也是工具。
The metrics and dashboards are a tool.
我们两个都会讲到。
We'll talk about both of them.
更新也是工具,用来整理思路和写作。
The updates are a tool, the writing and the organizing thoughts.
所以这个乌龟就是一个实实在在的实体乌龟。
So the turtle is a literal physical turtle.
实际上有好几个这样的乌龟,放在关键路径上那个人的桌子上。
Now there's actually a couple of them that goes on the desk of the person that is on critical path.
只有当关键路径上的问题解决了,这个乌龟才能被移走。
That turtle can only be moved when critical path is resolved.
和乌龟配套的还有一个叫“烫手山芋”的东西。
So with turtle comes a thing called a hot potato.
烫手山芋基本上就是一个围绕某个问题组建起来的小组。
And a hot potato is like a squad basically that spins up around a problem.
比如业务上出了问题。
So we have a problem in the business.
供应链中有个环节,我们没法大批量拿到货。
There's a part of the supply chain that there's a part that we can't get at volume.
所以供应链负责人的桌子上就放着乌龟,同时有一组人都在努力解决那个问题。
And so there's a turtle on the desk of the head of the supply chain, and there's a team of people that are all working on solving that problem.
而且每天都有一次会议。
And there's a meeting every single day.
每周还会给全公司发一封邮件,发到updates@basepowercompany.com。
And there's an email that goes out every week to the entire company to updates@basepowercompany.com.
邮件内容就是热点问题的更新。
There's a hot potato update.
就是说,嘿,这是目前公司里最卡脖子的问题。
It's like, Hey, this is the constraint in the business right now.
这是我们正在采取的解决措施。
This is what we're doing to resolve the constraint.
这是接下来要做的步骤,把问题解决掉。
These are the next steps to get the thing resolved.
等热点问题解决了,会再发一封邮件,说热点问题已解决。
Then when hot potato is resolved, there's an email that goes out and says, Hot potato resolved.
搞定。
Done.
然后那些人就回到他们正常的业务流程中去了。
Then those people go back to their normal course of business.
并不是说他们永远每天都要开会。
It's not like they're in a meeting every single day forever.
他们开会直到工作完成。
They're in a meeting until the job gets done.
那个乌龟,其实是个挺搞笑、挺傻的东西。
The turtle physically It's a funny, silly thing.
现在办公室里有毛绒乌龟、陶瓷乌龟,各种乌龟都有。
Now there's a plush turtle, there's a ceramic turtle, there's all kinds of turtles around the office.
还有一个简化版,就是你需要去解决阻碍。
There's a little version of this where you need to unblock.
这个概念就是,认真对待工作,但别太把自己当回事。
This concept of take your work really seriously, but don't get yourself that seriously.
我们到处都放着乌龟毛绒玩具,还有这种内部笑话,但对大家来说真的很有激励作用。
We have freaking turtle stuffed animals all over the place and little inside jokes like this, but they're really motivating for people.
大家都很自豪能拿到这只乌龟,因为这代表着我的工作就是去打通业务,推动公司前进。
And people take pride in having the turtle because it's like, it's my job now to unblock the business and to move the business forward.
所以我们聊聊,你知道,那就是工具,对吧?
So we'll talk about, you know, that's the tool, right?
每家公司都会用指标和仪表盘,但我觉得我们做得特别用心。
Every company uses metrics and dashboards, but I think we do it in a really thoughtful way.
所以如果你在办公室走一圈,你会看到什么?
So if you walk around the office, what do you have?
看起来就像个百思买。
It looks like a Best Buy.
到处都是电视屏幕。
There's TVs popping out everywhere.
每台电视上都显示着对公司重要的指标,好的用绿色标出来,坏的用红色。
And every TV has metrics that matter to the company on those TVs, good ones in green, bad ones in red.
我们开玩笑说,公司里每个团队,就像你提到的,都坐在那种牛棚式的座位里,开放式的办公布局。
And we joke that every team at the company, as you noted, we all sit in kind of bullpen seating, open floor plan.
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