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本期节目由AI赞助播出,AI正在重塑企业的运营、竞争和创造价值的方式。
Support for the show comes from AI is reshaping how enterprises operate, compete, and create value.
但许多企业仍在努力摆脱零散的工具和孤立的AI投资,以真正创造影响。
But organizations are struggling to move beyond fragmented tools and siloed AI investments to create real impact.
Dot ai,这个重塑引擎,是一个开放、动态、以AI为主导的技术系统,处于核心地位。
Dot ai, the reimagination engine, is an open, dynamic AI led technology system at the heart
的
of
通过将AI、技术和人才与可信经验相结合,帮助企业将AI愿景转化为企业价值,因为AI的价值取决于使用它的人。
By combining AI, technology, and people with trusted experience, helps organizations turn AI ambition into enterprise value because AI is only as valuable as the hands that shape it.
访问.ai了解更多。
Go to .ai to explore more.
大家好,欢迎收听Decoder。
Hello, and welcome to Decoder.
我是Neil Patel,《The Verge》主编,Decoder是我的节目,讨论重大想法和其他问题。
I'm Neil Patel, editor in chief of The Verge and Decoder is my show about big ideas and other problems.
这期节目是两集系列节目的一部分,主题是商业的未来。
This episode is part of a two part series on the future of business.
今天,我请到了Cloudflare的首席执行官马修·普林斯。
Today, I'm talking with Matthew Prince, the CEO of Cloudflare.
Cloudflare是全球最重要的基础设施公司之一。
Cloudflare is one of the most important infrastructure companies in the world.
它保护各种应用和服务免受互联网上的恶意行为者侵害,基本上让在线经营业务成为可能。
It protects all kinds of apps and services from bad actors on the Internet, basically making it possible to operate a business online.
马修上次来我们节目大约是两年半前,当时我们认为那是互联网的一个巨大转折点。
Matthew last joined us on the show about two and a half years ago at what we thought then was a wild pivot point for the Internet.
但现在因为AI,情况变得更加疯狂,而马修和Cloudflare正好处于这一切的中心。
But now because of AI, it turns out things are even wilder and Matthew and Cloudflare are right at the center of it.
Cloudflare在六月份发现,机器人现在占互联网流量的一半以上,而且随着越来越多的AI公司抓取越来越多的网页,这个数字还在不断上升。
Cloudflare found in June that bots now make up more than half of the Internet traffic, a number that just keeps going up as more and more AI companies scrape more and more of the web.
而现在,越来越多的人开始让AI代理在网络上替他们做事。
And now as more and more people send AI agents out to do things for them on the web.
Cloudflare 位于网站和所有那些 AI 工具之间,让网站所有者有一定程度的控制权。
Cloudflare sits between websites and all those AI tools and allows website owners some level of control.
他们可以屏蔽所有那些工具,允许它们,或者正如你会听到 Matthew 描述的,可能只允许那些付费访问的工具。
They can block all those tools, allow them, or as you'll hear Matthew describe, potentially only allow those that pay money for access.
所以我和 Matthew 讨论了如何控制那些机器人,它们在网络上造成了什么样的混乱,以及随着这些付费模式的显现,哪些信息在未来可能更有价值。
So Matthew and I talked about how to control all those bots, what kind of mess they're making at the web, and what kinds of information might be more valuable in the future as some of these payment schemes come into focus.
你会听到我非常直接地问,他描述的一些结果是否真的有益。
You'll hear me ask pretty directly if some of the outcomes he's describing are actually good.
Matthew 是个深思熟虑的人,他的回答在我们对话结束后很久我还在思考。
Matthew is a thoughtful guy and his answer is something I'm still thinking about well after we had this conversation.
Matthew 还处于另一个重要的 AI 辩论的中心。
Matthew is also at the center of another important AI debate.
今年早些时候,Cloudflare 裁员超过一千人,占公司员工的 20%。
Earlier this year, Cloudflare laid off more than a thousand people, 20% of the company.
Matthew 就这一决定写了一篇专栏文章,发表在《华尔街日报》上,标题是:“我如何选择哪些 Cloudflare 员工被 AI 取代”。
And Matthew wrote an op ed about that decision which ran in the Wall Street Journal under the headline, how I choose which Cloudflare employees to replace with AI.
这简直就是Decoder的典型内容。
That is pure decoder bay.
AI、重大争议决策和组织架构图,全都凑一块儿了。
AI, big controversial decisions, and org charts all in one.
所以很明显,我们详细聊了那个决定,以及它可能对未来公司结构意味着什么。
So obviously, we talked about that decision in detail and what it might mean for how companies are structured in the future.
在开始之前还有一件事,你可以在YouTube上订阅Decoder,我们每周一和周四都会发布新节目。
One last thing before we get started, you can subscribe to Decoder on YouTube where we put out new episodes every Monday and Thursday.
好的。
Okay.
Cloudflare的首席执行官Matthew Prince。
Matthew Prince, CEO of Cloudflare.
我们开始吧。
Here we go.
Matthew Prince,你是Cloudflare的联合创始人兼首席执行官。
Matthew Prince, you're the co founder and CEO of Cloudflare.
欢迎回到Decoder。
Welcome back to Decoder.
谢谢邀请。
Thanks for having me.
好的。
Alright.
我很高兴能再次和你聊聊。
I'm really excited to talk to you again.
距离我们上次上节目已经差不多两年了。
It's been about two years since we're on the show.
我刚刚回顾了那一集,我当时对你说,这是互联网的重要时刻。
Was just looking back over that episode and I said something to you like, it's a momentous time for the Internet.
我那时说得还远远不够。
And I was not even close.
现在更是如此。
It's now an even more momentous
完全同意。
Totally.
互联网的时代。
Time for the Internet.
你正处在用AI重塑公司运作方式的最前沿。
You are at the forefront of rebooting how companies work with AI.
这简直是Decoder节目最吸引人的话题了。
That is the most decoder bait of all time.
我想聊聊机器人、互联网、出版商、谷歌,还有你正在参与的所有这些事情。
I wanna talk about bots and the Internet and publishers and Google and all the things that you're in the middle of.
但让我们从头开始吧。
But let's start start at the very beginning.
Cloudflare是一家复杂而重要的公司。
Cloudflare is a complicated important company.
上次我们上节目时,你总结过这一点。
The last time we're in the show, you you summed it up.
你说过,Cloudflare 是一项让互联网更快、并保护它免受坏人侵害的服务。
You said Cloudflare is a service that makes the Internet faster and protects it from bad guys.
你现在还会这样描述 Cloudflare 的职能吗?
Is that still how you would describe what Cloudflare does?
通常,当我在鸡尾酒会上回答一个问题,又不想再跟那个人聊下去的时候,我会说那个。但如果我真的有兴趣继续聊下去,我会说,Cloudflare 正在努力重建互联网,让它从一开始就应该被建成的那样,如果我们早知道它会有多重要的话。
It's it's usually when I when I'm when I'm trying to answer a question at a cocktail party and I don't want to talk to the person anymore, I I say that what I what I what I'd say if I actually was sort of interested in talking to the person more is but Cloudflare is trying to rebuild the Internet the way it should have been built from the beginning if we knew how important it was gonna be.
所以我们运营着一个庞大的网络。
And so we run a giant network.
你知道,我们在全球超过350个城市,真的,有数千个数据中心。
You know, we're in over 350 cities worldwide, you know, literally thousands of data centers.
在所有这些地方,我们都有设备在运行。
In all those places, we have equipment running.
然后我们做几件事。
And then we do a handful of things.
如果你想把应用或内容上线,我们会确保它的安全。
We stop if you're trying to put an application or content online, we make sure that it's safe.
如果你是上网的人或者员工,我们确保你上网去的任何地方都是安全的。
If you're a person who is or an employee who's online, we make sure that wherever you go online is safe.
我们帮助人们有能力编写能够扩展到整个互联网受众的应用程序,并运行在我们拥有的基础设施上,这是我们业务中增长最快的部分。
We help give people the ability to, you know, write applications that can scale to an entire Internet audience and and run on the infrastructure that we have as the fastest growing part of our business.
我认为我们最近开始思考的是,互联网的商业模式正在发生巨大变化。
And I think the thing that we've recently started to think about is the business model of the Internet is changing dramatically.
我们正在努力帮助塑造互联网未来商业模式的样子,并尽可能让它保持健康。
And and we're sort of trying to help work on shaping what that future business model of the Internet looks like and how can we make it as healthy as possible.
我能不能把互联网的商业模式、互联网本应如何运作,以及Cloudflare试图构建本应如此的互联网,这三者联系起来?
Can I connect the dots between the business model of the Internet, how the Internet should have worked, Cloudflare trying to build the Internet as it should have been?
这跟Cloudflare保护免受坏人侵害是不同的。
That is different than Cloudflare protects from bad guys.
我得说,你上次就是这么跟我说的,现在让我觉得你不想在鸡尾酒会上跟我聊天,不过没关系。
I I will note that's what you said to me last time which now makes me feel like you don't wanna talk to me at the cocktail party, but that's fine.
这确实是个转变。
That's a shift.
这确实是个显著的转变。
That's a it's just a notable shift.
互联网的商业模式因为AI、机器人流量、AI爬虫等等,发生了巨大的变化。
The the business model of Internet has dramatically changed because of AI, because of bot traffic, because of AI scrapers, the the whole thing.
你觉得现在互联网的商业模式是什么,应该是什么?
Describe what you think the business model of the Internet is right now and what it should be.
过去至少三十年,互联网的商业模式一直是广告。
So for the last at least thirty years, the business model of the Internet has been advertising.
这虽然不是互联网商业模式的全部,但确实是推动网络发展、推动我们今天所享受的一切增长的动力,这真的是个奇迹。
It's not the entire business model of the Internet, but it's really the thing that has driven all of the growth of the web, all of the growth of what has has built what we all enjoy today and and is really is a miracle.
而在这方面贡献最大的公司就是谷歌,过去二十八年里,它真正定义了这种模式。
And the company that is responsible for that more than any other is Google, who for the last twenty eight years has really defined that.
我们都认为谷歌是搜索业务,但他们实际上构建了整个在线广告生态系统。
And we all think about it for the search business that they have, but they really built out all of the ecosystem around advertising online.
你知道,他们收购了DoubleClick。
You know, they bought DoubleClick.
他们还开发了像谷歌分析这样的工具,让你能真正看到谁在访问你的网站。
They built things like Google Analytics that lets you actually see who is coming to your property.
而且他们确实是,怎么说呢,我称之为互联网第一代和网页第一代的英雄。
And they and they really are the hero of of the of sort of what I call, like, the first generation of of the Internet and the first generation of of the web.
但变化很快的是,到底是谁在使用网络,或者说什么在使用网络。
What's changing though very quickly is who is actually using the web or what is using the web.
你知道,去年十一月,我参加了网络峰会,那是欧洲的大型科技活动。
They you know, last November, I was at the web summit, the big European tech event.
当时有人问我,你觉得什么时候非人类的流量代理和那些东西会超过人类的在线流量?
And I was asked, you know, when do you think that nonhuman traffic agents and all of those things are gonna pass human traffic online?
我们有很多数据,因为我们能看到互联网的很大一部分。
And we we have a lot of data because we see a huge percentage of the Internet.
所以我们把所有数据拉出来看了看,然后说,大概在2027年下半年,自动化流量会超过人类流量,这感觉挺重大的,因为那是我们第一次能在历史上看到这种情况。
So we pulled all of that data and and looked at it and said that, you know, it'd be the second half of twenty twenty seven automated traffic will become larger than human traffic, which was kind of felt like a big deal that we could see that first time in, you know, its history.
今年三月,也就是2026年,我在西南偏南大会上又被问到这个问题,我们又拉了一次数据,结果发现时间提前了,变成了2027年上半年。
I was asked again at South by Southwest in March of this year twenty twenty six, and we pulled the data again and it had moved up where it was gonna then be the first half of twenty twenty seven.
我们当时就想,哇,这增长得太快了。
We're like, wow, this is growing.
你知道吗?
You know?
我是说,这个AI的事情真是个大事件,人们疯狂地使用它,带来了巨大的流量。
I mean, this AI thing is is a big deal and people are using it like crazy and it's driving a huge amount of traffic.
所以当几个月后,也就是五月,团队跑来跟我说,你肯定不信,现在网上的自动化流量已经超过人类流量了,我当时都惊呆了。
And so I was stunned when just a few months later in May, team came to me and said, you won't believe it, but automated traffic is now past human traffic online.
而且这还在疯狂地增长。
And that's just expanding like crazy.
如果你把这个趋势外推一下,当然要加上一个大大的警告,那就是到目前为止,我在这方面的每个预测都错了。
And if you if you extrapolate that out with the giant caveat that I've gotten wrong so far in every prediction that I've made on this.
但五年后,我们预计自动化流量会是人类流量的千倍。
But five years from now, we think that automated traffic will be a thousand times human traffic online.
不是因为人类流量会下降。
Not because human traffic's gonna decline.
我们认为它会保持在大致相同的水平,但因为我们看到其他所有流量都在爆炸式增长。
We think it'll stay kind of around the same, but because we're just seeing such an explosion in all of this, the rest of the traffic.
而挑战在于,首先,如果流量增长一千倍,总得有人为支撑这些的基础设施买单。
And and the challenge of that is if you have, first of all, a thousand times more traffic, someone's gotta pay for the infrastructure to to to power that.
比如,那将需要带宽。
Like, the that that's gonna require bandwidth.
那将需要服务器。
That's gonna require servers.
那将需要很多很多的东西才能实现。
That's gonna require, you know, a lot of things in order to make that in order to make that happen.
而传统的支付方式,也就是广告,对机器人来说行不通。
And the traditional model of how to pay for that, which was advertising, doesn't work for bots.
机器人不会点击广告。
Bots don't click on ads.
它们不会对漂亮的色彩图案或者我们传统上认为的品牌形象产生反应。
They don't respond to, you know, pretty swirls of paint and and what we traditionally think of as a brand.
所以我们必须想出别的办法来支撑未来互联网上那种令人难以置信的、永无止境的需求。
And so we've gotta come up with something else that that's going to power that that just incredible insatiable demand that's gonna be put on the Internet going forward.
这也是我花了很多时间在思考的问题,想知道那会是什么样子。
And and that's what I'm spending a lot of my time trying to think about what that what that's gonna look like.
当你把它描述成一种商业模式时,这暗示着会有客户、收入和利润。
When you describe it as a business model, that sort of implies that, you know, there's gonna be customers and revenue and profits.
但我不确定这些是否真的存在。
And I don't know if any of that's true.
我觉得,我的意思是,肯定有很多收入。
I think it I mean, I think there's I mean, there's there's certainly a lot of revenue.
嗯,也许对Cloudflare和谷歌这样的公司来说是这样,但对……
Well, there's maybe for the Cloudflare's and the Googles of the world, but for the
对Anthropic这样的公司来说,单月收入就达到100亿美元。
the Anthropics of the world, $10,000,000,000 of revenue in a single month.
所以,对AI服务的需求确实非常巨大。
So, like, there is enormous demand for these AI services.
如果你是做AI的公司,你真正需要的是三样东西。
And if you're an AI company, what you really need are are three things.
你需要顶尖的人才和研究人员。
You need great talent and researchers.
而现在,这些很稀缺。
And right now, that's scarce.
所以现在,真正懂怎么搭建这些系统的人很少,但这种情况会改变的。
And so right now, we have just a a scarcity of people who really understand how to build these systems, but that's gonna change.
全球每一所大学都在重新设立AI系。
Every single university in the world is standing back up their AI department.
我们正在拼命培养人才。
We're training people like crazy.
你知道,劳动力市场是相当高效的。
You know, labor markets are pretty efficient.
所以会有越来越多的人进入这个领域。
So we're gonna have more and more people coming into the space.
第二件你需要的东西就是芯片。
The second thing that you need is you need, you know, chips.
你需要有真正的硅片来运行这些系统。
You need the the ability to actually the silicon to run these things.
今天,英伟达在这方面是全球最强的,但还有很多其他公司,比如AMD、高通,以及所有那些超大规模云服务商,都在自己造芯片来支持这些系统。
And today, you know, NVIDIA is the best in the world at that, but you've got a whole bunch of others, whether that's, you know, AMD or Qualcomm or all the hyperscalers that are building their own chips in order to power these things.
所以,虽然我们现在面临硅片供应严重短缺,以及无法真正通电启动的问题,但这种情况也会改变。
And so while we have a massive shortage in the availability of silicon and the ability to actually power it up and turn it on, but that's gonna shift and change as well.
第三件你一直需要的东西,就是用来喂给这些不同模型的数据。
And so the third thing that you've always needed, you actually need the data to feed into all of these different models.
而我认为,这一块可能会朝着相反的方向发展。过去,我们让互联网完全开放,让机器人可以访问所有被创造出来的内容,包括你的节目,以及其他所有东西。
And that's been the one thing that's, I think, gonna go the other direction, which is that historically, we've just made the Internet completely open and given bots access to all of the stuff that's being created, your episodes, everything that else that's out there.
我觉得这种情况开始改变了。
I think that's starting to change.
我们看到的一个趋势是,越来越多创造内容、真正创造信息的人开始说,也许我们可以免费把这些提供给人类。
And what we're seeing is a shift where more and more of the people who are creating content, really creating information are saying, you know, maybe we'll give that away for free to humans.
但如果机器人来获取内容,那它们就得付费,因为它们没有那种传统的“先给予再获取”的模式。
But if a bot is coming for it, then bots have to pay for it because they don't have that traditional give to get.
我们不能在它们面前放广告,然后指望那能帮我支付内容创作的成本。
We can't put an ad in front of them and have that be something that allows me to help pay for the content creation that's there.
所以我们看到的是,互联网正在回归一些最初的协议。403协议,是在网景公司最初版本中写的,实际上是要求付费的。
And so what we're seeing is actually going back to some of the original protocols of the Internet, The four zero three protocol, which was written in, you know, the very first version of of Netscape was actually payment required.
你确实需要为你接收的内容付费。
And you actually have to, like, you know, pay for the the con content that you're that you're you're receiving.
这其实是我们设置的403。
And that's and that's something actually, we have set four zero three.
实际上是402。
It's actually four zero two.
这又是我们和其他领先公司如Coinbase和Stripe合作的事情,我们要确保能让那些创作内容的人、在网上做事的人、任何建立网站的人,都能说,作为交换,虽然会有成千上万倍的流量涌来,你可能不会从中获得广告收入,但也许每次有人访问那些信息时,你能得到一丁点儿的报酬。
That's something that, again, we're working with other leading companies like Coinbase and Stripe in order to say, how do we make sure that we can allow people who are creating content, people who are doing things online, anyone who's putting a website up to say that in exchange for that thousands and thousands and thousands of times more traffic that's gonna come to you, you're not gonna maybe get kind of the advertising revenue that comes from it, but maybe you can get a fraction of a penny every time somebody actually accesses that information.
那一丁点儿的报酬从哪里来呢?
And where does that fraction of a penny come from?
这笔钱来自人们为他们的AI代理和其他系统支付的费用。
Comes from the fee that people are gonna be paying for their their AI agents and and other systems that are that are out there.
这其实很像现在的Spotify或Apple Music的运作方式。
Really similar to how like a Spotify or an Apple Music works today.
我喜欢我们不到十分钟就已经聊到了1996年关于微支付的梦想。我们接下来还要再聊一轮这个。
I like that we're less than ten minutes in and we're already at the 1996 dream of micro payments on the We're gonna we're gonna stick with that for one more turn here.
我刚才说商业模式的时候,其实真正想说的是激励机制。
When I said business model, what I was really pushing at was the idea of incentives.
所以也许信息确实有某种商业模式。
So maybe there is some business model for information.
发布一些新信息,然后机器人会来找到它,没错,四零二协议会重新焕发生机,然后我们会用Cloudflare支持的Stripe来做加密货币微支付,谁知道呢。
Gonna publish some new information and bots will come and find it and yep, the four zero two protocol will will come back to life and we're gonna do, I don't know, crypto micro payments using Stripe powered by Cloudflare.
这是很多人长期以来一直在谈论的未来版本。
That that's a version of the future that many people have talked about for a long time.
是的。
Yep.
我担心的是,在网络上搭建这一切的激励因素,就是我说有商业模式、有客户、有收入的时候所担心的。
The incentives to stand all that up on the web is the thing that I'm worried about when I say there's a business model and customers and revenue.
如果我建一个网站,而且我觉得我的大部分客户会是机器人而不是真人,那我可能就不会去做了。
If I stand up a website and I think most of my customers are gonna be bots and not people, I might not do that.
我可能干脆开个TikTok频道,然后以任何我想的方式去变现我的TikTok受众。
I might just start a TikTok channel instead and then monetize my TikTok audience in whatever way I might wanna monetize it a TikTok audience.
这看起来真的是一个非常大的转折点,就在此时此刻。
That seems like a really big inflection point right now at this second.
你提到了谷歌,你知道,我已经问过很多次了。
You mentioned Google and you know, I've I've asked you know about this many times.
在网络上发布新信息的激励因素似乎正在永久性地下降。
The incentives to put new information on the web just seem to be in permanent decline.
这看起来真的不再是个好主意了。
It it just doesn't seem like a good idea anymore.
而另一方面,网络作为一个应用程序,简直是处于绝对的巅峰。
Where where on the flip side, the web is an application program is it's like absolute apex.
现在每个新出的应用都是网页应用,或者如果是桌面应用,也就是用Electron做的。
Like every new app that comes out is a web app or if it's a desktop app, it's just electron.
网页作为应用平台,正在发生一些不可思议的事情;而作为信息平台,却正在经历毁灭性的变化。
Like there's something happening with the web as an application platform that is incredible and something happening to the web as an information platform that is devastating.
你正在试图把这些点连起来。
And you're trying to connect those dots.
你在试图说,我们可以改变这里的激励机制。
You're you're trying to say we can change the incentives over here.
未来的某个版本,也许是微交易,也许不是,能让网页作为信息平台的激励变得和YouTube一样好?
What's a version of the future, maybe it's micro transactions, maybe it's not, where the incentives to make the web an information platform are as good as YouTube?
你刚才描述了一个现在正在发生的、很难调和的矛盾。
You've sort of illustrated what is what is kind of a tough to reconcile dichotomy that's happening right now.
比如,看看维基百科贡献的公开数据,明显下降了,因为人们会想,把信息放到维基百科上有什么好处呢?
So if you look at things like pub the publicly accessible data on Wikipedia contributions, it's down significantly because people are like, what's why what's the incentive to, like, put information on Wikipedia?
而这件事,你知道,以前人们是出于很多不同的原因去做的。
Something that, again, you know, people were doing for for for a lot of different reasons.
我觉得问题在于,以前如果你给维基百科贡献内容,你知道至少有人在读维基百科。
And I think the problem there is, like, back back in the day, if you were contributing things to Wikipedia, you knew people were at least reading Wikipedia.
现在人们获取信息的界面不再是维基百科本身了。
Now the the interface through which people consume that information isn't going to Wikipedia itself.
他们只是通过你用的任何答案引擎来读答案,不管是OpenAI、ChatGPT、Anthropic的Claude,还是X上的Grok,或者其他什么。
It's just reading the answer through whatever answer engine you're using, whether that's OpenAI, ChatGPT, or Anthropic Cloud, or, you know, Grock on X or whatever it is.
这意味着维基百科的编辑们会说,也许我这么做没那么有意义了。
And and that means that the people who are, you know, the editors of Wikipedia are saying, maybe it doesn't make as much sense for me to do that.
另一方面,整个网络其实从2012年左右就开始走下坡路了。
The flip side of that is, you know, the web as a whole actually was had been declining since about 2012.
网络在九十年代末和整个两千年代增长得非常疯狂。
So the the web grew like crazy in the in the late nineties and through the through the two thousands.
然后大约从2012年开始,你真的看到它趋于平稳,实际上还在下降,一直到2025年左右,情况发生了转变。
And then starting around 2012, you really saw it plateauing and actually decreasing up until about 2025 where something flipped.
从2025年10月开始,很大程度上得益于各种编程平台,我们让任何人都能轻松创建网站,越来越多的人开始创建那些应用。
And starting in about October 2025, driven a lot because of the various five coding platforms, the ability that we made it easy for anyone to create a website, that more and more people were creating those applications.
就像你说的,现在不管是桌面应用还是移动应用,本质上都只是网页应用的壳子。
And as you said, even your desktop application, your mobile application increasingly, it's just a it's just a a wrapper around what is fundamentally a web application.
而且现在网络本身的增长,内容质量高,参与的人也更多,增长速度比2000年代初以来的任何时候都要快。
And the growth of the web itself with with really high quality stuff and and a lot more people contributing to it is faster today than it has been at any time since the early two thousands.
所以这就是各种因素之间的张力所在。
And so that's that's that's that's the that's the tension between those various things.
我觉得Cloudflare的独特之处在于,我们覆盖了超过20%的网络,所以有能力解决你提到的那些激励问题。
I think what's unique about Cloudflare is that because we sit in front of so much of the web, more than 20% of the web, we have the ability to overcome some of the incentives problems that you that you have.
我们可以很快地开启一个功能,比如说,只要花不到一分钱,就能获取这些信息。
And so we can very quickly turn something on and say, okay, for a fraction of a penny, you have to pay a fraction of a penny in order to get access to this this information.
这可以启动我认为我们需要的那种开端。
And and that can kick start what I think is the beginning of of what we need.
而且,如果没有这样的机制,我们就会面临一个巨大的公地悲剧问题。
And and again, the the problem is if you don't have something like that, we face a massive tragedy of commons problem.
比如说今天我问,不知道,我最喜欢的AI助手,哪里吃午饭好?
So let's say today I ask, I don't know, whatever my favorite AI agent is, you know, where should I go to lunch?
我是说,如果我自己做研究,我可能会去看几个不同的菜单,你知道,作为个人。
I mean, if I was doing research, I might go look at a couple of different menus, you know, as an individual.
我的AI助手今天会扫描当地所有的菜单,来搞清楚情况。
My AI agent today goes and scans every single menu in the local area in order to figure out what's going on.
而且,最终只有一家店会真正赚到我的午餐钱。
And and again, only one of those places is going to actually get my lunch dollars.
所以如果这种情况无限扩大,如果做这件事没有成本,那我的助手最终可能会查看互联网上所有可用的资源,然后回来说,你知道,你应该去温迪。
And so if that just expands infinitely, if there's no cost to doing that, like at some point, my agent is just gonna look at literally every piece of resource, every resource that's available everywhere on the Internet and then come back and say, you know, you should go to Wendy's.
那是巨大的浪费。
That's an enormous waste.
所以我们必须有某种机制,明确表示每次加载网页都是有成本的。
And so we've gotta have something which is actually saying that, you know, there's a cost every time you you load a web page.
背后有带宽、服务器,还有其他各种东西,这些都需要有人来买单。
There's a there's there's there's there's bandwidth, there's servers, there's things that are behind that, and someone has to pay for that.
如果既不是广告,也不是直接交易,那就必须有某种东西来施加限制。
And if it's not gonna be advertising and it's not gonna be directly commerce, then then there has to be something that actually put some constraints there.
我觉得我们现在的立场是,对,可以是一笔很小的钱,比如千分之一美分之类的。
And I think where we're in a good place to say is like, yeah, it can be a tiny amount of money, a thousandth of a penny or something like that.
但这笔钱足以让我们开始说,好吧,这能帮助支付基础设施的费用。
And but that's enough that we can actually start to say, okay, that that will help pay for the infrastructure.
然后如果你有非常有价值的内容,比如你是新闻出版商或者学者,那么也许你可以在上面加一个溢价,说,嘿,除非你付更多钱,否则我不会给你这些内容,但我相信它有价值,我们可以为它创造一个市场。
And then if you have incredibly valuable content, you know, if you're a if you're a news publisher or you're you're an academic, then maybe maybe there's a premium on top of that that you charge and say, hey, I'm not gonna give you this content unless you pay even more for it, but I believe that it's valuable and we can create a market for it.
为了实现这一点,我认为,还是需要像我们这样的市场参与者来启动它。
In order for that to happen, I think, again, you've gotta have a player like us that's in the market that can kick start that.
但我认为一旦你启动它,我们从买家那边,也就是大型AI公司,看到他们都愿意这么做。
But I think once you kick start it, we've seen in from the from the side of the buyers, the big AI companies, that they're all willing to do this.
我们从卖家那边,也就是大型内容创作者,看到他们都对此非常兴奋。
We've seen that from the side of the sellers, the big content creators, that they're all really excited about this.
所以真正缺少的是把这些东西连接起来的技术,而这正是我们花大量时间在建设的东西。
And so what's really been lacking is actually the technology that links those things together and again, that's what we're spending a lot of time actually building.
这里,感觉这个对话的理论基础就是稀缺性这个概念本身。
Here, it feels like the theoretical underpinning this conversation is the very notion of scarcity itself.
我是个老版权律师,多年来版权法一直有个内在机制让它很重要,那就是一张CD就是一张CD,如果你想再要一张,复制一张CD是相当困难的。
I'm an old copyright lawyer in copyright law for years and years and years had just a built in mechanism to be important which was that a one copy of a CD was one copy of a CD and if you wanted another one, it's pretty hard to make another copy of a CD.
即使复制变得容易了,你仍然需要另一张物理CDR,这限制了你能复制多少张,而且分发也很困难,但互联网让这一切都消失了。
Even when it got easy, you still needed another physical CDR and that imposed some cost on how many copies you could make and it was hard to distribute them and all of that went away with the Internet.
我们把所有东西都变成了数字文件,复制另一份的负担降到了零。
We moved everything digital files and the the burden of making another copy fell to zero.
我觉得很多消费者都期望一切免费。
And I think a bunch of consumers expected everything would be free.
有句名言说,信息渴望自由。
There's that famous quote, information wants to be free.
这句话还有后半句,大家都忘了,那就是信息也渴望昂贵,因为生成它很难。
There's a second half that quote everyone forgets, which is the information also wants to be expensive because it's hard to generate.
互联网把这一切都颠覆了。
And the Internet just turned that upside down.
物理媒介的壁垒机制提供了某种稀缺性,从而带来了可衡量的经济价值,但这一切都消失了,我们决定信息应该是免费的,也许靠广告来支持。
The The gating mechanism of physical media which provided some scarcity and thus some economic value that you could measure went away and we decided information should be zero and maybe supported by advertising.
实际上,真正变得有价值的是注意力,因为注意力在某种程度上是稀缺的。
It was actually attention that became valuable because that was scarce in its way.
你说的是用你的技术来制造稀缺性,对吧?
You're talking about imposing scarcity, right, with your technology.
你知道,我们总是说市场需要供需关系。
You know, we always talk about markets needing supply and demand.
这其实不完全对。
That's not exactly right.
你需要的肯定是需求,而且理想情况下是无限的需求,或者尽可能多的需求。
What you need is you need demand for sure and you want infinite demand ideally or as much demand as you can get.
无限的需求可能也不好,因为那样价格就很难确定了,但你确实想要需求。
Infinite would probably be bad because you then it would be hard to discover price, but you want you want demand.
然后你还需要供给受到限制。
And then you want actually constrained supply.
我们现在坐在这里,空气就没有市场,因为空气到处都是。
There's no there's no market for air where either of us are sitting right now because there's there's plenty of air.
但如果我们去潜水,突然之间空气就有了市场,因为水下空气是有限的,所以你必须花钱买才能进行潜水。
But if we go scuba diving, then all of a sudden there's market for air because air is constrained underwater, and so you have to buy it in order to in order to be able to do it.
我觉得音乐是我思考未来可能是什么样子时参考的例子。
Music, I think, is the example that that I look to when I think about, like, what could this look like in the future?
而且,你知道,我飞到斯德哥尔摩去见了丹尼尔·艾克,他是Spotify的创始人。
And, you know, I flew up to Stockholm to meet with Daniel Ak, who started Spotify.
那次谈话非常精彩,因为如果你回顾音乐的历史,当然,曾经有一段时间,大部分音乐销售来自CD、专辑或者其他什么形式。
And and and it was just a fascinating conversation because if you think about the history of music, you know, sure, once upon a time, like, the majority of music sales was from was from, you know, CDs or or or albums or whatever whatever it was.
然后互联网出现了,随之而来的是Napster和所有那些基本上把音乐商品化、让每个人都能免费获取的东西。
And then along came the Internet and along with it, Napster and and all of the things that that essentially, you know, commodified music and made it available for free for everyone.
即使你是一个非常守法的人,大多数人实际上还是在下载音乐,因为他们想要获取音乐。
And even if you're an incredibly law abiding human, the majority of people were actually just downloading music because they wanted access to music.
如果你回到23年前,整个音乐产业的总价值大约是90亿美元,也就是80亿美元,这确实是一大笔钱,但对于整个音乐产业来说并不算多。
And if you go back twenty three years ago, the music industry as in total was about 9 valued about 9 bill or $8,000,000,000, which is a lot of money, but it's not a lot of money for the entire music industry.
要知道,那可是披头士、滚石乐队以及其他所有音乐人的总和。
Like, that's the Beatles and the Rolling Stones and everything else.
但人们当时都说,这玩意儿根本赚不到钱。
But people were like, you can't make any money off of this.
然后差不多就在二十三年前的现在,史蒂夫·乔布斯走上台,发布了iTunes,宣布每首歌99美分。
And then almost exactly twenty three years ago to right now, Steve Jobs steps on stage and announces iTunes, and that it's gonna be 99¢ a song.
但他们还提供封面,保证音质,还有各种细节。
But they include cover art, and they're gonna make sure it's high quality and and all all these things.
但最重要的是,它触动了人们的情感,让人觉得应该为音乐付费。
And but mostly, it appealed to this emotion of you should be paying for for music.
虽然这个商业模式最终没有胜出,但它立下了一个标杆,表明这些信息确实值得付费,而且非常有价值。
Now that's not the business model that won, but it was a it was a flag in the ground that said that this information is actually worth paying for, and it's and it's really valuable.
而且,正是iTunes后来催生了像Spotify这样的平台。
And, you know, it was the iTunes that then eventually begat, you know, the the the Spotify's of the world.
最不可思议的是,就在去年,Spotify向音乐创作者生态系统投入了大约120亿美元。
And the and the incredible thing is, you know, just last year, Spotify sent something like $12,000,000,000 back into the music creator ecosystem.
至于这些钱是否分给了合适的人,分配是否公平,我们可以再讨论。
And we can debate whether the right people are getting in, whether, you know, it's it's it's fairly allocated.
这是我最喜欢争论的话题,因为我觉得,不管音乐行业发生什么,五年后其他行业也会经历同样的事情。
This is my favorite thing to argue about because I I well, I think whatever happens in the music industry happens to everybody else five years later.
所以我花了很多时间思考这个问题。
So I spent a lot of time thinking about it.
而那里的转变,我觉得特别有意思,不管好坏,就是为音乐文件本身支付的费用变得非常少。
And the turn there which I think is fascinating and is either good or bad is that the amount paid for music for the music files themselves became very small.
你在Spotify上有一百万次播放,也赚不到什么钱,但巡演、商业赞助,还有同步授权给广告这些带来的收入都在飙升。
You can get a million streams on Spotify, you're not making any money but the amount generated by touring and commercial sponsorships That's that's and sync licensing to advertising are all skyrocketing.
这完全不是事实。
That's that's just simply not true.
那为什么私募股权公司要花几亿买下所有的音乐版权?答案就是,靠音乐流媒体赚钱其实非常暴利。
Why is private equity buying all of the music catalogs for hundreds of hundreds of millions of The answer is because actually making money off the streaming of the music is extremely lucrative.
再说一遍,光是Spotify就向音乐行业返还了120亿美元,回到这些各种东西背后的实际版权所有者手里。
And again, Spotify alone is sending $12,000,000,000 back to the music industry, back to the actual rights holders behind, these various things.
所以你可以看到,从Spotify流入的钱比巡演或者其他任何来源都要多得多。
And so you can there is more there's way more money coming from Spotify into this than there is from touring or or any any of the other things are there.
那些是其他赚钱的方式,但实际上,真正推动所有增长的是流媒体。
You those are other ways to make money, but actually, it's the it's the streaming that is is really driving all of the real growth.
当然。
Sure.
但我想在这里区分一下,我们不必争论,你不是来跟我争论音乐的,虽然那是我最喜欢做的事。
But I I just wanna draw a distinction here and we don't we can argue on you're not here to argue with me about music, which is my favorite thing to do.
所以抱歉,我刚才忍不住就开始了。
So I apologize for just doing it.
但私募股权会赚到那些钱,而不是音乐人。
But private equity is gonna make that money, not the musicians.
他们确实付钱给一些版权持有者,但那些涌入的钱……
They're paying some of the catalog holders for some of the things, but that money flooding in
如果音乐人,比如披头士,你……
If the musicians if the Beatles you
你知道,如果滚石乐队或者谁,如果他们当初没有卖掉他们的音乐版权,而是保留下来,那音乐人就能赚到那些钱了。
know, if the Rolling Stones or whoever used the Light Lights wants to sell their their their music catalogs had held onto the music catalogs, then the musicians would have made that.
他们正在做出这个决定,而且顺便说一句,当他们卖掉版权的时候,他们已经拿到了支票。
They're they're making the determination that and and by the way, when they sold the the sold the rights, they they got to get the check.
所以这就是……
So it's it's
你拿到支票了吗?
Did you get the check?
但我这里唯一要做的比较是……
But I the only thing the only comparison I'm making here
是未来五十年分期付款更好,还是现在就一次性拿一大笔钱更好?
is it better for you to take the annuity of payments over the course of the next fifty years or just take the lump sum upfront?
这就是他们面临的取舍。
That's the trade off that they're making.
但此时此刻,投入到音乐创作中的资金比人类历史上任何时候都要多。
But there's more money going into music creation at this point in time than there ever has been at human history.
所以技术本质上并不是信息价值的破坏者。
And so technology is not inherently a destroyer of value of information.
在这种情况下,它极大地促进了价值的创造,让人们找到了自己的听众,当然,也卖出了更多的演唱会门票。
In in this case, it has been an massive enabler of value in this and and allowed people to find audiences and, yes, sell more tickets to their their concerts as well.
但我认为,这实际上是我们需要思考的模式,那就是如何借鉴Spotify的做法,把许多付费用户访问整个音乐曲库的资源汇集起来,然后根据某种算法,把这些资源返还给音乐人,希望这种算法能奖励那些真正创造价值的地方。
But but I think that that's actually the model that we need to think about, which is how do we take what Spotify has done, which is to say we pool together the resources of a bunch of people that are paying for access to the entire catalog of of music and then give that back to musicians based on, you know, some sort of algorithm that that that hopefully rewards where there's actually real value, which is which is created.
如果同样的事情发生,一部分费用用于支付给各种AI公司,一部分用于支付给构建AI系统的研究人员,一部分用于支付芯片,但也要支付给内容本身,因为内容才是真正训练这些AI的知识。
If you had the same thing where a portion of what is being paid for for the various AI companies, what you had to pay for the researchers that built the AI systems, and you had to pay for the chips, but also to pay for the content, which is actually the real knowledge that is training these things.
我认为,这正是我们需要的那种模式,才能真正开启信息创造的黄金时代。
I think that's exactly the type of model that you need in order to actually unlock what could be a real golden age of information creation.
我要比较的不是一群年迈的摇滚明星是否会因为年纪大了而卖掉他们的曲库套现。
The the comparison I'm making is not whether a bunch of aging rock stars are gonna sell their catalogs and cash out because they're old.
这没问题。
That's fine.
他们可以这么做。
They can do that.
更重要的是,你描述的这种转变,从限制访问到Spotify上对所有歌曲的开放访问,然后我们只是移动一些零钱,有些人变富,我们制造一些赢家和输家。
It's more that the shift you're describing into gating access into, you know, wide open access on Spotify to every sign ever made, and then we're gonna move some pennies around and some people get rich and we'll create some winners and losers.
彻底改变了音乐行业的整个商业模式。
Fundamentally changed the entire business model of music.
所以Spotify,这真的很让人着迷。
So Spotify again, this was fascinating.
和丹的那次对话真的很有意思。
Dan the conversation with Dan was fascinating.
他说,好吧。
He said, okay.
听着。
Listen.
如果你在Spotify上搜索,比如,泰勒·斯威夫特的《Shake It Off》。
If you go on Spotify and you search for, I don't know, Taylor Swift, shake it off.
他们会返回一个结果,而且他们很确定给的就是你想要的。
Like, they return a result, and they're pretty sure that they have given you what you are looking for.
另一方面,如果你在Spotify上搜索,想要一首迪斯科节奏的、关于和我家猫跳舞有多开心的歌。
On the other hand, if you go to Spotify and you search for, want a song to a disco beat about how much fun it is to dance with my cat.
这样的歌市面上还真不多。
Not a lot of songs like that that are out there.
所以他们知道,不管返回什么结果,都挺不理想的。
And so they know that whatever they return is a pretty bad result.
但有意思的是接下来的事——他们并没有把这些搜索不到好结果的查询丢掉,而是把这些信息反馈给了音乐创作者。
But the interesting thing is what happens next, which is they didn't take them those searches for things that they don't have good results to do, and they publish that back to music creators.
我觉得这挺了不起的,他们等于在说:这是有人在寻找的一种情感,但我们没有好的答案,然后我们把这个信息发布给音乐创作者。
And and I think that there's something that's pretty amazing about that, which is they're saying, here's here's here's an emotion that someone is searching for, which we don't have a good answer for, which we're then going to go and publish back to music creators.
而且有个人,如果我没记错的话,在丹麦,他专门干这个——这又是个让人感叹‘我是不是入错行了’的时刻。
And there's a guy who, if I remember the story correctly, is is in is in Denmark who makes and again, this is one of those moments where everyone's gonna be like, I'm in the wrong profession.
每年靠为Spotify上那些没被满足的搜索写歌,赚4000万欧元。
€40,000,000 a year writing songs for unfulfilled Spotify queries.
而且他不是一个人。
And he's not alone.
他是最成功的,但还有一大帮人,每年靠为那些人们搜索但找不到的歌写歌,赚几百万美元甚至几百万欧元。
There's he's the most successful, but there's a whole bunch of people that are making literally millions of dollars or millions of euros a year doing this thing where they're they're writing songs for what people are searching for that aren't out there.
现在把这个思路再往前推一步,也就是说,人类历史上第一次,我们建立了一个人类知识的数学模型。
Now extrapolate that to the next level, which is to say for the first time in human history, we've built a mathematical model of human knowledge.
这就是大语言模型。
That's what the LLMs are.
我们知道它们知道什么,也知道它们缺什么。
And we know where they know things, but we also know where they're missing things.
我把它想象成一大块瑞士奶酪。
I I picture it like a giant block of Swiss cheese.
奶酪很多,但奶酪上的洞也很多。
And there's a lot of cheese, but there's a lot of holes in the cheese.
真正有意思的是,当你跟那些大型AI公司的负责人聊天,问他们愿意为什么付费时,
And the really interesting thing is when you talk to the leaders of the big AI companies and you say, what do you want to pay for?
他们不想要又一个关于宾夕法尼亚大道1500号发生什么的故事,而现在的媒体环境正在疯狂地给我们灌输这些。
They don't want yet another story about what's happening at 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue, which is what the current media environment is feeding us like crazy.
他们想要的是填补奶酪上的那些洞。
What they want is to fill in the holes in the cheese.
他们想要的是以前没人知道的新知识。
They want new knowledge that no one ever knew about before.
所以,这个例子实际上正在起作用,你知道,我和我妻子在犹他州帕克城拥有一家本地小报纸,那是我们的家乡。
And so the the example that this is actually is actually working is, you know, my wife and I own a small local newspaper in Park City, Utah, is our hometown.
我觉得今年我们从AI授权交易中赚的钱会比数字广告多。
I think we will make more money off AI licensing deals this year than we do off digital advertising.
原因在于,本地媒体正是我们即将进入的媒体世界中更有价值的东西,但在我们正在脱离的媒体世界中,它被彻底摧毁了,那个世界看重的是数量和规模以及细分。
And the reason why is because local media is exactly the sort of thing that is much more valuable in kind of the media world that we're going into, but was completely decimated in the media world that we are coming out of where what mattered was volume and scale and dividing things.
而本地媒体讲的是,告诉你街角刚开的那家酷炫新餐厅。
Whereas local media is all about, let's tell you about the cool new restaurant that just opened down the street.
如果你是AI公司,想成为最好的旅行规划师,想拥有通用人工智能,你就需要知道犹他州帕克城有什么热门新餐厅。
If you're an AI company and you wanna be able to be the best travel planner that's out there, you wanna have, you know, artificial general intelligence, like, you need to know what the hot new restaurant is in Park City, Utah.
如果你无法访问我们的报纸《帕克记录》,你就不知道这些。
And if you don't have access to the park record, our newspaper, you don't know that.
所以我觉得真正有趣的是,我们不会以同样的方式保护所有媒体,就像转向Spotify一样,音乐领域有很多输家,但也会有新的赢家,比如丹麦那个人,他根据Spotify上未满足的查询创作东西。
And so what I think is is really interesting is we're not gonna protect all media in the same way that, you know, the move to Spotify, there are there are a whole bunch of losers in the in the musician space, but there are going to be new winners like that person in Denmark who's creating things off of unfulfilled Spotify queries.
而且我倾向于认为,在这个新领域里,赢家可能正是那些人们真正想回归的媒体类型。
And and I and I tend to think that the winners in what this new space might be might actually be the kind of things that people really want to come back to media.
更多的本地新闻,更多独特的内容,更多像Reddit这样的平台。
More local news, more unique things, more Reddits of the world.
更多互联网最初的样子,你知道,我九十年代第一次上网的时候。
More of what the Internet used to be, you know, when I when I was, you know, first on it in the in the nineties.
我觉得这其实就是大多数互联网用户真正渴望的。
Like, I think that that's actually what most Internet users are craving.
而且我认为,如果我们把激励机制搞对了,我们其实有办法鼓励更多这种独特原创的内容,而不是像现在这样,媒体生态基本上就是靠煽动情绪让人点击,然后给他们推送广告。
And I think that if we get the incentives right, we actually have a way of maybe incentivizing more of that unique original content as opposed to what we have today, which is a media that ecosystem that is largely just rage baiting people into clicking on things so that they can serve them an app.
本期节目的支持来自AI,它正在重塑组织的运作、竞争和创造价值的方式。
Support for the show comes from AI is reshaping how organizations operate, compete, and create value.
但随着AI加速发展,挑战不再是获取技术,而是如何超越传统限制,运用正确的判断、可信的经验和信誉来应用AI,从而转型你的组织。
But as AI accelerates, the challenge is no longer how to access the technology, it's how to leap beyond the legacy constraints and apply AI with the right judgment, trusted experience, and credibility to transform your organization.
这就是dot ai,这个重新想象的引擎,发挥作用的地方。
That is where dot ai, the reimagination engine, comes in.
Dot AI,这个重塑引擎,是一个开放、动态、以AI为主导的技术系统,处于核心位置。它将技术和投资、强大的联盟生态系统以及对每个客户独特环境的无缝集成结合在一起。
Dot AI, the reimagination engine, is an open, dynamic AI led technology system at the heart of It brings together technology and investments, a powerful ecosystem of alliances and seamless integration into each client's unique environment.
通过全球连接和协调的解决方案,Dot AI,这个重塑引擎,帮助组织将AI从孤立的投资扩展为连接的企业级智能能力,让领导者有信心重塑企业,并实现规模化价值。
Through globally connected and orchestrated solutions, dot ai, the reimagination engine, helps organizations scale AI from isolated investments into a connected enterprise wide intelligence capability, giving leaders the confidence to reimagine the enterprise and realize value at scale.
前往.ai了解更多。
Go to .ai to explore more.
要实现这一点,你需要构建的一个东西就是阻止AI爬虫,阻止模型公司出现。
One of the things you would need to build in order to make that work is a way to stop the AI crawlers, to stop the model companies from showing up.
就在今天,又有一场诉讼,对吧?
Just today there's yet another lawsuit, right?
音乐公司要起诉Anthropic。
The music companies are going to sue Anthropic.
白宫今天站出来支持OpenAI对纽约时报的诉讼,称训练应该属于合理使用。
The White House came out in support of OpenAI and its case against the New York Times today, saying the training should be fair use.
我想我需要在一些系列企业合并中披露这一点。
I think I need to disclose it in some series of corporate mergers.
The Verge的母公司现在正在以某种方式起诉谷歌。
The Verge's parent company is now suing Google in some way.
这跟它完全没关系。
Have literally nothing to do with it.
就是这样。
It's just all that.
全都是这些纷争,对吧?
It's all the swirl, right?
而且这是法律上的纷争。
And that is a legal swirl.
对。
Yes.
我们会用法律来表明这是非法的,如果你做了坏事,就会受到惩罚。
We're gonna use the law to say this is illegal and will punish you if you do the bad thing.
这完全是不确定的。
That's just up for grabs.
这些是五五开,而且可能是决定性的。
Those are fifty fifty and maybe existential.
也许吧,也许不是。
Maybe maybe not.
我的意思是,我觉得现在的法律,至少在美国,美国和其他地方不一样。
I mean, it's mean, I think that the law right now, at least in The US, and The US is different than everywhere else.
所以你会看到各种不同的规定。
And so you've got this patchwork around it.
但最好的案例可能是Anthropic那个案子,法官基本上说,训练模型使用所有书籍属于合理使用。
But like the best case on this is probably Anthropic case, where where the where the judge basically said that training is fair use against all all the books.
而且你不应该偷那些书。
And and by the you shouldn't have stolen the books.
那是不对的。
That was bad.
但如果你没有偷书,而是真的买了那些书,那就没问题了。
But but if you hadn't stolen the books, if you actually bought the books, then it would be okay.
这个结果对Anthropic来说非常有价值,所以他们花了20亿美元解决了剩下的官司,你知道,这对Anthropic来说也是一大笔钱。
And that was a valuable enough result for Anthropic that they settled the rest of the case for $2,000,000,000, which is, you know, a lot of money, even even for Anthropic.
所以,对,我明白。
And so so I I Right.
所以当你构建技术的时候,你会把这一点记在心里。
So when you're building technology, you're keeping that in the back of your mind.
但我觉得市场正在逐渐理解什么有价值,什么没有,你需要阻止他们出现。
But I The market is coming to some sort of understanding of what's valuable and what's not, and you need to stop them from showing up.
世界各地会通过不同的法规。
Different regulations are gonna be passed in different places around the world.
所以,我,而且,作为一个曾经的知识产权律师,我很快就想到,哦,让我们就用知识产权吧。
So, like, I I and again, as a also recovering intellectual property attorney, like, I I very quickly go to, like, oh, let's just use intellectual property.
但那样做太笨拙了,相比之下,更简单的办法是直接用技术。
But but, like, that's such a kludge versus the much easier thing, which is let's just use technology.
而且,你知道,识别,我记得有一次和一群媒体高管坐在一起,他们说,哦,我们怎么才能阻止帕洛阿尔托那些书呆子抓取我们的内容呢?
And, you know, identifying like, ever ever I remember sitting with a bunch of media execs, execs and they're like, oh, how are we gonna stop these nerds in Palo Alto from scraping our stuff?
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我当时就说,你知道吗,我每天都要跟朝鲜和伊朗的黑客,还有中国人打交道。
And I was like, you know, I go to war every day with like North Korean and Iranian hackers and the Chinese.
他们真的很厉害,而且很会隐藏。
Like, they're really good at it, and they hide.
相比之下,帕洛阿尔托的那些极客们,他们注册的是特拉华州的C类公司。
Whereas, like, the nerds in Palo Alto have a Delaware based c corporation.
要找到他们很容易,不像那些人,而且他们很难大规模地躲过我们。
Like, it's pretty easy to identify them versus versus the others, and it's really difficult for them at scale to hide from from us.
事实上,我们看到的是,他们更愿意说,听着,我们会明确表明是我们来访问你的网站,你可以信任我们,我们会告诉你我们具体在做什么,这样你就有权控制这些信息是如何被获取的。
And and in fact, what we're seeing is actually much more of them being willing to say, listen, we will specifically identify when we are coming to a site that it is us, that you can rely on us and we'll tell you exactly what we're doing so that you can have the right to control how that information is is being being taken.
我觉得这个问题在两年前还挺有意思的。
I think that that's a that was an interesting question like two years ago.
但是,你知道吗,就连谷歌这样的公司,他们有时候也挺难搞的,因为谷歌就像漫威电影一样,昨天的英雄变成了今天的反派。
But, you know, even the Google's of the world who who who've who've been at times challenging through this because Google, you know, they they they're sort of like a Marvel film, like the hero of yesterday becomes the villain of tomorrow.
挑战在于,他们觉得,我们签了这么多协议来获取整个互联网的内容,现在我们可以随便用了。
Like, the the challenge has been that they they're like, we struck all these deals to get access to all the Internet, and now we can use it for whatever we want.
我们当时就觉得,以前你们是给网站带流量的。
And we kinda were like, in the past, you were sending people traffic.
现在你们却在拿别人的内容训练模型,却一点流量都不给人家。
Now you're training on things and sending them no traffic.
这跟以前那种互惠互利可不一样了。
That's a different give to get.
不过说实话,我对谷歌团队印象挺深的,他们现在更愿意参与进来谈这件事。
And what what I'm, you know, been really actually impressed with the Google team is that they are much more willing to engage here.
他们明白整个生态系统的价值。
They understand the value of the ecosystem.
谷歌里确实有人真心希望未来能有一个健康、可持续的生态系统。
There are people at Google who really do believe in making sure that there is a healthy, sustainable ecosystem going forward.
而且我觉得,他们已经在爬虫透明度方面做出了一些承诺,我预计他们接下来还会做更多。这其实是个好兆头,因为如果连谷歌都愿意这么做,愿意公开自己正在做的事情,那就能带动整个行业。
And I think already some of the things that they've committed to around transparency of their crawler and some of the things that I expect that they will do over the next little bit, I think that that that that's actually that's a good sign, and it's gonna make it so that, you know, if if if even Google is doing it and is willing to say, I'll announce what I'm doing.
而且在很多情况下,他们甚至愿意为内容付费。
And in in many cases, I'll even be willing to pay for content.
我觉得这其实让说服其他所有AI公司也这么做变得更容易了。
Like, I think that's actually just makes it even easier to convince all of the other AI companies to do the same.
你觉得需要把螺丝拧到底,真的屏蔽谷歌的爬虫,才能让他们付钱吗?
Do you think you need to turn the screws all the way and actually block the Google crawlers to get them to pay?
从9月15日起,我们会把所有免费客户的默认设置改为屏蔽谷歌的AI训练。
As of September 15, we're gonna set the defaults across all of our free customers for it to be that Google is gonna be blocked for AI training.
但如果他们不区分AI训练和搜索引擎训练,我们就会全面屏蔽他们。
But if they won't differentiate between AI training and search engine training, we're just gonna block them across the board.
即使你是网站所有者,你可能会说,我不想这样对我。
Even if you're a site owner, you're like, I don't want that to be for me.
我们会让你很容易关掉这个设置。
We'll make it easy for you to turn it off.
这只是我们默认设置的问题。
It's just about what we set the defaults to.
但我真的感到鼓舞的是,谷歌内部那些好的力量正在意识到,这必须是一个健康的生态系统,他们必须在这个新市场(也就是AI)中遵守与其他所有人差不多的规则,不能利用昨天在搜索领域的垄断来创造明天在AI领域的垄断。
But but I'm I'm really encouraged that Google is that the sort of good forces at Google are are realizing that this has to be a healthy ecosystem and that they have to play by somewhat the same rules for this new market, which is AI that everyone else is playing for and that they can't leverage the monopoly that they had in search yesterday to create a monopoly in AI tomorrow.
我和桑达尔谈过很多次了。
I've talked to Sundar about this many times.
我觉得他不太喜欢我老是提‘谷歌归零’这件事,但也就这样吧。
I don't think he loves the fact that I am the person who keeps calling Google Zero, but so be it.
桑达尔是个很有想法的人。
Sundar is very thoughtful.
他非常非常友善。
He's he's he's very kind.
每次我和他聊天,我都能感觉到他想说的是:那你当时怎么没做点什么?
Every time I talk to him, get the sense that what he wants to say is, well, you didn't do anything about it.
你们这些出版商光抱怨,你们太依赖我给的流量了,而且你们一点筹码都没有。
All you publishers are complaining, you got super addicted to my fire hose of traffic and you have no leverage.
你们自己没建立什么受众,什么都没做。
You built no audience of your own, you didn't do anything.
你看看我得跟多少其他平台竞争。
Look at all of these other platforms that I have to compete with.
TikTok出现了,YouTube不得不跟它竞争。
TikTok showed up and YouTube had to compete with them.
ChatGPT出现了,搜索团队也得跟它竞争,而你们什么都没做。
ChatGeeVee showed up and the search team had to compete with them and you did nothing.
这感觉有点意思,对吧?
This feels like this something, right?
我们要屏蔽谷歌的搜索流量,我们要屏蔽爬虫。
We're gonna block the Google search traffic, we're gonna block the crawler.
想想看,People的CEO居然在说要直接屏蔽谷歌。
Think the CEO of People is talking about literally blocking Google.
Reddit的Steve现在真的变得更强硬了。
Steve at Reddit has really become, you know, more aggressive.
如果谷歌搜不到这些内容,它就没法正常工作了。
And Google doesn't work if it can't search these things.
而且这对他们来说其实更关乎生死存亡。
And it's and it's actually more existential for them.
谷歌搜索排名的核心机制就是构建一棵树。
The very nature of how Google search ranking works is it builds a tree.
这就是PageRank的原理。
That's what page rank was.
它基本上就是说,好。
It sort of says, okay.
这里有一个超级权威的来源,然后看看它和网上其他内容是怎么关联的。
Here's here's a super reputable thing, and then let's see how it's connected to everything else that's online.
问题是,如果像Cloudflare这样占互联网20%以上的服务突然消失了,那就在这棵树中间留下了一个巨大的空洞。
The problem is if, you know, with Cloudflare, again, 20% plus of the Internet, if that just disappears, that's in a giant hole in the middle of tree.
所以这不仅会破坏这个。
And so it doesn't just break it for this.
它会破坏所有东西。
It breaks it for everything.
我觉得这就是我们和很多客户一起意识到的,我们可以说,听着,这已经不公平了。
And I think that that's the that's that's what, you know, we sort of realized that on behalf of and in conjunction with a lot of our customers, we could say, listen, this isn't fair anymore.
你这是在制造成本。
You're not you're creating costs.
你在拿别人的内容。
You are taking content.
你从这些内容中获取价值,无论是通过你卖AI工具的订阅,还是通过你投放的广告。
You are getting value from that content either in terms of the subscriptions that you're selling to your AI tools or to the ads that you're running against that.
而且这已经不再是公平的交换了。
And you're and and that's just not a fair give to get anymore.
所以这个协议必须改变。
And so the deal has to change.
我真的很自豪,我们在帮助出版行业转型方面发挥了作用。两年前我和《人物》杂志的尼尔吃饭时,他还在说‘唉,我们该怎么办啊?’
And so I'm really proud of the fact that, you know, we've played a role in helping, you know, the publishing industry go from what was, you know, two years ago when I had, you know, dinner with Neil from People, he's like, you know, he's like, woe is me, what are we ever gonna do?
我当时就说,我觉得我们能解决这个问题。
And I'm like, I think we can fix this.
而最近一次我见到他,我们互相击掌庆祝了。
And and now, like, last time I saw him, we gave each other a high five.
我说,我觉得我们正在取得进展。
I said, I think we're we're making progress.
大型出版商达成的协议明显好多了。
And the deals that large publishers are doing are significantly better.
现在的问题是,怎么把这个推广到整个互联网。
And and now I think the question is, how do we bring that to the rest of the Internet?
因为如果不这样做,我们就会面临一个巨大的公地悲剧问题,大家都只会索取、索取、索取,增加成本、增加成本、增加成本,而真正创造东西的激励就没了,比如为维基百科这样的平台做贡献,建个新网站,写写当地新开的餐馆,做本地新闻和本地媒体,或者当个学者。
Because if we don't, we have this massive tragedy of commons problem where it's just gonna be take, take, take, impose costs, impose costs, impose costs, and and the incentives for actually creating things, for contributing to the Wikipedias of the world, for putting up a new website, for writing about what, you know, the new local restaurant is, for creating local news and local media, for being an academic.
如果做这些事情连饭都吃不上,那人们就不会去做了。
Like, if if we if there's not some way that you can do those things and still eat, like, still make enough to eat, then people aren't gonna do it.
这对我们所有人都有害。
And that harms us all.
多年来,我一直对谷歌持批评态度。
And, I I I've been very critical of Google over the years.
但我要说,过去几个月,他们的态度似乎开始转变了。
I will say that their tune appears to be changing over the last over the last few months.
而且我相信,他们内心深处确实明白这是一个生态系统,他们在其中扮演着重要角色,他们需要回馈这个生态系统,并且遵守规则,让这个生态系统蓬勃发展。
And I believe that at their core, they really do understand that this is an ecosystem, that they play an important role in that ecosystem, and that they need to give back to that ecosystem and and play by rules that allow the ecosystem to flourish.
你说谷歌很快会做一些改变。
You said Google's gonna make some changes soon.
会是哪些改变呢?
What changes would those be?
你知道,我觉得他们已经承诺的事情就是,让他们的爬虫在做什么变得更加透明。
You know, I think the thing that they've already committed to is just a lot more transparency on what their crawler is doing.
所以我们之前推动他们做的是,把他们的爬虫分开,说,你知道,我们会为了AI单独爬取,和为了网页爬取分开。
So what we had pushed them to do is split their crawler apart and say, you know, we are gonna crawl for, you know, AI separate from crawling for for the web.
而且我觉得他们,出于很多技术原因,反驳说,你知道,那实际上效率极低。
And I think that they they, for a lot of technical reasons, pushed back and said, you know, that actually is incredibly inefficient.
你不想——我们不需要爬两次。
You don't wanna we did not have to crawl twice.
那会给所有现有的东西带来双倍的负载。
That's gonna put twice as much load on on everything that's out there.
那如果我们换个方式,当我们的爬虫访问一个页面时,我们声明它在做什么,然后给你一个选择,如果你不喜欢,你可以说不行。
What if instead we just said when our crawler comes to a page, we'll announce what it's doing and then give you the ability that if you don't like it, doing something to say, no.
不行。
No.
这个不允许,但那个可以,然后把这两者结合起来。
That's not allowed, but but this is and and put that that together.
他们基本上已经表态了,主要是回应英国的一项裁决,他们会建立这些机制,让出版商有选择权,而且不只是英国,他们会在更广的范围内这么做。
That they have they have signaled that largely in response to what was a a ruling out of The United Kingdom that they were going to put those those procedures in place to allow publishers to make that choice and that they wouldn't just do it in The United Kingdom, but they'd actually do it on a on a broader basis.
我觉得这样下来,我们会得到一个更强大的网络,坦白说,也会有一个更好的谷歌,那真是太好了。
And I think we come out of this on the other side with a stronger web and frankly, with even a better Google, which would be which would be great.
我想你知道,关于音乐产业,我可以跟你争论一整天一整夜。
I could argue with you about the music industry all day and all night, I think you know that.
但确实,改变访问权、版权法以及围绕音乐产业的那些东西,改变了整个行业,对吧?
But it it is true that changing access and copyright law and all that stuff around music industry changed the business, right?
因为分发方式变了,举办演出和驻场演出的激励也变了。
The incentives to put on shows and do residencies and all that changed because of the distribution changing.
我觉得这一点我们大体上是认可的。
That I think we generally grant.
你描述的是一个信息市场,其中的激励机制会再次发生变化,对吧?
You're describing an information market where the incentives will shift again, right?
在那里,为机器人制作信息可能比为人制作信息更有利可图,这可能会塑造信息的本质。
Where it might be more economically lucrative to make information for the bots than for people and that might shape the very nature of the information.
你经营一家本地报纸,也许你的员工发布的餐厅评论最适合被大语言模型消化后再输出。
You run a local paper, maybe your people are publishing restaurant reviews that are best ingested by an LLM and spit out.
或者,与其评论一家酒店,不如评论每一间酒店房间。
Or or instead of reviewing a hotel, review every hotel room.
你知道吗,纽约时报上每出现一个词,那位记者可能在别处写下了大概一百个词。
You know, for every word that appears in a story in the New York Times, that reporter has written down probably a 100 words somewhere else.
这些都是其他的元数据,传统上它们受到限制,比如纸质报纸的栏宽,或者人类真正愿意花多少注意力在上面。
That's all that other metadata, which traditionally has been constrained by, you know, how many column inches you had in in the in the physical paper or how much attention a human would actually spend on that.
想象一下,如果你能对大语言模型说,嘿,听着,我们要卖纳乔。
Imagine if you could say to the LLMs like, hey, listen, we're gonna sell nacha.
而且,关于保护消息来源,有很多事情要考虑,有些东西你必须处理好。
And again, there's there's all kinds of things around protecting sources and you you have to get there's there's stuff you have to get right.
但如果处理得当,就会有一个非常丰富的、额外的信息目录来源。
But if you get it right, there's an enormous rich, like, source of of a catalog of additional information.
你在杂志或报纸上看到的每一张照片,可能都有五六十张是拍同一个东西的。
For every picture you see in a magazine or a newspaper, there are probably 50 or 60 that were taken of that same thing.
而且,这些对现在那些AI系统来说都很有价值。
And, like, that's all valuable to these AI systems that are out there.
所以我觉得我们可以想象很多方式,今天真的有很多内容被白白扔掉,其实它们可能非常有价值。
So I think there's a lot of ways that we can imagine how as there's just a bunch of content that's literally being thrown on the floor today that actually can be incredibly valuable.
这是我的领域。
This is my universe.
这个我有信心。
I feel confident about this one.
今天我为一个大报道开了个包装会议,我们关于封面图片和几周后要发的报道进行了很充分的讨论。
I was in a packaging meeting today for one of our big stories and we had a pretty fulsome debate about the lead image and a story we're gonna run-in a few weeks.
然后我们有分歧,最后我们选了一张,或者选了一个方向。那是一个编辑上的决定,目的是为了在人类身上引起某种反应。
Then we disagreed and we eventually we picked one or we picked a direction And that was an editorial choice that was designed to elicit some reaction in humans.
我们可以把其余的照片都发出来。
We could publish all the rest of the photos.
它们都真的非常好。
They're all really, really good.
我们决定一张是赢家,其余的不是。
And we decided one would be the winner and the rest wouldn't.
但如果我把所有照片都发出来,然后交给一个LLM,它会改变我们做出来的东西,对吧?
But if I publish all the photos and I give them to an LLM, it will change the thing that we made, right?
因为它的分发方式必然会改变,它的目标受众也会改变。
Because its distribution will necessarily change and its intended audience will change.
也许最大的解码套路就是,你的分发方式不可避免地会改变你做出的东西。到头来,也许我的未来就是做YouTube上的AG1广告,那就是所有播客的未来。
Like maybe the biggest decoder trope of all is that your distribution inevitably changes the thing you make and at the end of the day, maybe my future is just making YouTube face sling an AG one and that is the future of all podcast.
就是某种分发力量改变了你做出的东西。
It's just some force of distribution that changes the thing that you make.
你描述的这个结果好吗?
Is the outcome you're describing good?
我们是不是只是在制造无穷无尽的信息洪流,为了让人消费,中间还要经过聊天机器人的消化,然后针对搜索引擎优化?
We're we're just making an infinite flood of information GEO optimized for some human to consume digested by a chatbot in the middle?
嗯,我觉得,首先,现在的模式好吗?
Well, so so I think that so first of all, is the is the current model good?
你知道,我和你们母公司里的很多人聊过。
You know, I mean, I've talked with lots of lots of people at your your parent parent corporation.
再说一次,我觉得你们做得确实不错。
And again, think you guys do do a good job.
现在有很多媒体,就是想着怎么用最低的成本来创作内容。
There's I mean, there's a lot of, you know, media that with today was just how do we create content as inexpensively as possible?
确实。
Sure.
然后通过A/B测试标题,来激发多巴胺或者皮质醇反应。
And then AB test headlines in order to either stimulate a dopamine or cortisol response to that.
是这样吗?
Is that
要是媒体真有那么科学就好了。
If only the media was that scientific.
我们收购了很多,其实很多都是这样。
We we acquired a lot A lot of it is.
我是说,我和赫芬顿邮报、BuzzFeed的一些人聊过,他们就说,对,这就是游戏规则。
I mean, I I've sat with some of the, you know, the folks from Huffington Post, some of the folks from BuzzFeed where they were like, yeah, that's the game.
这就是我们玩的游戏。
And that's the game that we play.
再说,我不确定我们在所有地方都这么玩,但你甚至可以看到《纽约时报》的变化。
And again, I don't I don't know that a game we play everywhere, but you can even see you you can even track the New York Times.
你可以看看《华尔街日报》。
You can track the Wall Street Journal.
你可以看看《金融时报》,看看过去二十年里,标题变得多么煽动性,几乎像小报一样。
You can track the Feet and just watch how much more inflammatory and almost tabloid ish the headlines have gotten over the last twenty years.
而且,我觉得那些仍然是每一个都是很棒的媒体机构。
And and again, I think that that's that that those are still every one of those is an amazing media organization.
但为了在这个领域胜出,关键就变成了怎么去激发人们内心深处的某种情绪?
But in order to win in this space, it's been how do I provoke really a deep?
嗯,你描述的是他们在迎合自己的分发渠道,主要是社交媒体。
Well, what you're describing is they're playing to their distribution, which is largely social media.
那是算法驱动的社交媒体算法,而这就是分发方式,它也在塑造内容。
It's algorithmic social media algorithms, and that is the distribution and it's shaping the content.
所以我想问你,你描述的这种新的分发方式是什么?
So I'm asking you about the new distribution that you're describing.
那么,我们先把这个框架说清楚。我有一句话,每次说出来都会让谷歌的人对我大喊大叫,那就是:今天世界上所有的问题都是谷歌的错。
So it's a but let's let's just let's just frame that, you know, that that that this the sentence that I say that gets everyone at Google to yell at me is everything wrong with the world today is Google's fault.
这对谷歌来说并不公平。
That is that is not fair to Google.
谷歌总体上是一家很棒的公司,但谷歌催生了脸书,脸书又催生了抖音,把我们带进了这个注意力经济的陷阱,我们做的就是尽可能多地获取注意力。
Google has has been by and large been a great company, but Google begets Facebook, which begets TikTok, which has us in this attention economy hole where it's just like what we're trying to do is get as much attention as possible.
而要做到这一点,最好的方式就是再次激发一种深层的、哺乳动物式的本能反应。
And the best way to do that is to actually stimulate, again, a a deep sort of mammalian response.
这就是我们今天所处的媒体环境。
That's the media landscape that we live in today.
我觉得这个环境已经严重出了问题,也正是它让世界变得分裂。
And I think it's deeply broken, and I think it's what's divided the world.
我认为它导致了世界各地极具破坏性的民粹主义抬头,而真正的思想辩论反而少了很多。
I think it's what's led to the rise of of of sort of very destructive populism around the world, you know, much less sort of of real intellectual debate.
那我们能转向什么呢?
So what could we move to?
再说一次,我觉得这里面有很多地方可能会出问题。
And again, I think there's a lot that can go wrong here.
但如果你去跟OpenAI的Sam、Anthropic的Dario,或者谷歌DeepMind那些构建AI系统的团队聊聊,他们真正想要的是什么?
But what if you talk to Sam at OpenAI or Dario at Anthropic or you talk to, you know, the teams at Google that are building the AI systems at DeepMind and others, what do they really want?
他们想要的是真正的新知识。
They want new true knowledge.
他们想要的是还没人知道的东西。
They want the thing that nobody knows about yet.
他们想要的是那种没人报道的有趣故事。
They want the story about, you know, the the the interesting thing that no one else is covering.
他们想要的是真正推动人类知识进步的东西。
They want that thing which is actually advancing human knowledge forward.
这也是我想读的。
That's what I wanna read too.
我真的不想再看一篇关于特朗普白宫今天发生了什么的评论了。
I don't actually wanna read yet another take of what happened in the Trump White House today.
这种东西已经够多了,他们也不想要。
There's plenty of that, and and they don't want it either.
最好的证据就是这些分发协议是怎么达成的。
And and the best the best evidence of this is actually how some of these distribution deals have been done.
《纽约时报》这家了不起的媒体机构和Reddit这家同样了不起的媒体机构,在那里面拥有的token数量差不多。
So The New York Times, amazing media organization, and Reddit, also an amazing media organization, have about the same amount of tokens in that.
《纽约时报》已经出版很久了。
The New York Times has been publishing for a lot longer.
Reddit 的内容量要大得多。
Reddit is is a lot higher volume.
所以他们做交易。
And so they they do deals.
谁的内容更值钱?
Who gets more money for their tokens?
答案是 Reddit,至少高出七倍,有些衡量标准下是十四倍,还有些其他标准下……
The answer is Reddit by at least seven, by some measures 14, by some other
跟听众说明一下,你这里说的“内容量”是指新内容的数量吧。
Just to be clear for the audience, you're you're using tokens as a measure of amount of new content.
对,就是内容。
Of content.
就是里面的那些内容。
The content content that's that's that's in there.
而且,不仅仅是新内容,还有历史内容。
And, it's not just new content, but it's the legacy content as well.
所以问题就是为什么?
And so the question is why?
再说一次,这对《纽约时报》来说非常不公平。
And and, again, this is deeply unfair to the New York Times.
但如果你没有《纽约时报》,你可以直接授权《华尔街日报》,然后让AI把它改写成纽约自由派的风格。
But if you don't have the New York Times, then you can just license the Wall Street Journal and ask AI to rewrite it as if it's a New York liberal.
你就能得到《纽约时报》了。
And you get The New York Times.
这非常不公平,除非所有这些主要媒体出版物都把自己的业务变成了向各自的受众讲述完全相同的故事。
Deeply unfair, except that all of these media publications, the major media publications have made their business of telling the exact same story to their individual tribes.
而Reddit,如果你没有Reddit,就没有替代品。
Whereas Reddit, like, Reddit, if you don't have Reddit, there's no substitute for it.
Reddit就是那个独一无二的存在。
Reddit's Reddit is this unique thing that's out there.
所以我觉得,未来的媒体更像是真正独特的叙事方式,围绕本地社区、别人没讲过的独特故事,以及真正的知识创造,这些才是有价值的,而且已经被今天的市场证明了。
And so I think a media of the future that looks more like truly unique kind of storytelling around, again, local communities, unique stories that no one else has told, real knowledge creation is what is valuable and is proven valuable by the market that exists today.
但市场的另一面,简单来说,我理解这个模式,市场、买家,这个市场的买家就是一堆模型公司。
But the the other side of that market, just to be reductive here to say I understand the model, the market, the buyer in this market is a bunch of model companies.
不是人。
It's not people.
嗯,但最终,那些模型公司的客户,就是我们所有人。
Well, but but but then ultimately, the customers of those model companies, which is all of us.
如果你作为模型公司,给我的东西不是最新的信息,那么,令人惊讶的是,似乎这些模型公司没有哪一家能独自领先。
And if you as a model company are giving me stuff where I'm not at where it's where you don't have the latest information, then I then what's been amazing is it doesn't appear like any of these model companies on their own is going to, like, run away.
我的意思是,人们会说,哦,那如果OpenAI实现了AGI呢?
I mean, people are like, oh, well, what if, know, OpenAI gets AGI?
我会说,两天后,Anthropic也会有AGI。
I'm like, that's two days later, Anthropic will have AGI.
然后,你知道,Grok也会在几天后有,谷歌也会在几天后有。
And then, you know, Grok will have it a couple days after that and Google have a couple days after that.
然后,光有AGI就不够了。
And then it won't be AGI won't be enough.
得是AGI加,或者AGI加加,你懂我意思吧。
It'll be AGI plus or AGI plus plus or what I mean.
所以我觉得有意思的是,什么能让这些东西从商品变成真正有粘性、能卖出去的产品?
So what I think is gonna be interesting is what is it that's gonna turn these things from commodities into actually sticky products that people sell?
我觉得答案就是,谁能接触到最真实的知识,从而得到正确的答案。
And I think the answer is gonna be who has access to the most true knowledge that gets you the right answers.
所以,从终端消费者的角度来看,所有的动机都是想尽可能多地回馈给真正知识的创造者。
And so, like, that seems like all of the incentives from the end consumers are to say, I wanna get as much back to the the the the the creators of real knowledge as I possibly can.
现在,我来告诉你财务这块,我觉得我们能解决财务问题。
Now I'll I'll tell you the the financial piece, I think we can solve the financial piece.
我真正更担心的是另一块,这源于这个……你应该请丹尼尔·埃克上节目聊聊这些事,他聊起来特别有意思。
The piece that I'm actually much more worried about and, this comes out of this this com you should have Daniel Ek on the on the story because he's fascinating to talk about these things.
但他,他跟我聊过。
But he like, he's talking to me.
他说,听着。
He's like, listen.
你一直在想怎么让内容创作者赚到钱。
You've been thinking a lot about how to get content creators paid.
他说,你看音乐家,人们成为音乐家有两个原因,为了赚钱和为了出名。
He said, if you think about musicians, there are two reasons that people become musicians, to get rich and to get famous.
如果最后非得让音乐家排个序,哪个更重要,出名可能比赚钱更重要。
And if you, at the end of the day, like, had to cause musicians to rank, which one is more important, fame probably beats rich.
顺便说一句,这是个愚蠢的策略。
It's, by the way, it's a stupid strategy.
有钱但没人认识你,那才是最好的。
Being rich and anonymous is the best.
真的。
Story.
但这是事实。
But the but but but that's true.
我觉得很多人确实渴望得到认可。
I think that a lot of people really do want recognition.
这也是为什么维基百科的贡献者数量和贡献内容在下降,因为人们得不到足够的认可,因为你不会去查原始来源。
This is part of why Wikipedia is seeing a drop in the number of contributors and information that's contributing is because people don't get recognized as much because you're not going to the original sources.
所以我觉得这是个问题。
And so I think that's a problem.
这是下一个问题。
That's the next problem.
我觉得我们能解决经济问题,但下一个问题是如何真正认可创作者。
I think we'll solve the financial problem, but the next problem is how do we actually recognize the creators?
所以我一直在向大型AI实验室提议,我们应该设立某种奖项,不管是诺贝尔奖还是奥斯卡奖,但要有一种认可机制,用数学来衡量谁在某个特定领域对哺乳动物生物学研究贡献最大,在过去一年里进行衡量,然后举办一场盛大的颁奖典礼,给他们颁奖,庆祝他们,并谈论他们在推动这方面有多出色。
And so what I've been pitching to the big AI labs is we should create I don't know if it's the Nobel Prize or the Academy Awards, but some sort of recognition where we use math to measure who create, you know, contributed the most to, you know, I don't know, mammalian biological research in some specific field and measure it in the last year and then have a big ceremony and give them an award and and celebrate them and talk about how wonderful they were at advancing this.
我觉得要弄清楚如何仍然认可那些真正在创造知识的人,即使知识传播的媒介可能不再直接来自原始研究。
I think figuring out how we still take the people who are actually out there creating the knowledge and say that even though the medium through which they're going to be, that knowledge can get disseminated might be removed from the original research.
可能是AI机器人或聊天机器人在传播这些知识。
It might be the AI bot or the chatbot that's out there.
我们还是要说,你们在做非常重要的工作,我们会为这份重要的工作认可你们。
We still have to say, but you're doing really important work and we're gonna recognize you for that important work.
上次你来的时候,我们花了很多时间讨论内容审核,以及Cloudflare如何利用它在互联网上的权力,基本上让像Stormfront这样的新纳粹网站更难存在。
The last time you're on, we spent a lot of time talking about content moderation and and Cloudflare using its power on the Internet to, you know, essentially make it harder for sites like Stormfront which are neo Nazi website to exist.
你当时对此非常纠结。
And you had a lot of you were you were in torment about it.
你手握大权,你打算使用它,你还为此发表了一些专栏文章。
You had a lot of power, you were going to use it, you published some op eds about it.
我们讨论了一段时间,最终你决定不想和这些人做生意,后果就是后果,但应该有某种框架来规范你的权力。
We talked about it for a while and eventually you came to decide you don't wanna be in business with these folks and the consequences are the consequences, but there should be some frameworks to regulate your power.
很多事情都变了,但我们确实进行了一场关于Cloudflare利用其权力阻止AI爬虫并创造经济机会的长谈。
Many things have changed, but we've kinda had a long conversation about Cloudflare using its power to block AI scrapers and create economic opportunity.
这在很多方面是同样的权力。
It's the same power in many ways.
这是互联网一个关键层的权力,能够阻止事情发生。
It's a power of a layer of the Internet that is predominant to to stop things from happening.
你改变主意了吗?
Have you changed your mind?
是因为经济上的考虑让你觉得更安心了,还是有别的原因?
Is it just the economic rationale that's made that more comfortable for you, or is there something else happening?
你知道吗,我觉得在Cloudflare内部,有一件事一直很有意思,就是当我们看到这些利用我们的坏事时,我觉得会有一个非常人性的反应。
You know, I think what's one one of the things is and one thing that's been interesting in inside of Cloudflare has always been, like, when we see these bad things that are using us, you know, there's there's, I think, a very human reaction.
而且通常是我的联合创始人Michelle会说,听着,我明白那些棘手的道德问题,但这本身就是坏事。
And it's often my co founder Michelle who's like, listen, I realize all the hard thorny moral questions, but this is per se bad.
我们应该做点什么。
We should do something about it.
我觉得我们大体上已经表明了态度,就是说,这很难。
And I think we have largely come out to say, know, that's it's tough.
我们不想成为决定什么好什么坏的人,而且实际上,真正算得上本身就是坏的事情并不多。
Like, we don't wanna be the ones that are deciding what's good and bad and even and there and there actually aren't that many things that are just sort of per se bad that that are out there.
但如果我们能改变激励机制,让创造这些各种东西的动机减少,那岂不是很好?
But wouldn't it be great if we could change the incentives so that, you know, there's less incentive to create these these various various things.
而我觉得有趣的是,关于互联网未来商业模式的问题,这大概是我第一次想到,也许我们不应该只是去处理这里或那里的不良内容,那基本上就像是在拔蒲公英,一个一个地处理。
And and what I found interesting about, you know, the the the the the question of what the future business model of the Internet is gonna be is it's sort of the first time I've I've thought, well, maybe instead of trying to kinda deal with, you know, bad sight here or there, which is basically like just, you know, cutting down dandelions, like, gonna, you know, spot up.
你并没有解决根本问题。
You're not solving the root problem.
我觉得如果我们能让互联网下一个商业模式的激励不再围绕着如何制造愤怒和情绪——顺便说一句,成为新纳粹是最能激怒人们的方式之一,他们往往会点击你的内容。
I think if we can get the incentives for the next business model of the Internet to be less around how do we just create rage and emotion and which by the way, being a neo Nazi is one of the most effective ways to just really piss people off and they tend to click on your things.
然后去买营养补品之类的。
And then and then buy nutritional supplements or whatever.
所有这些背后都是非常奇怪的商业模式。但我觉得如果我们能回到一个真正奖励信息创造和知识创造,而不是愤怒创造的模式,那也许才是触及根本问题所在。
All these things are very weird business models that are behind But I I think if we can get back to something where we're actually rewarding not rage creation, but information creation and knowledge creation, that that that that maybe that's actually getting at what is, you know, the fundamental kind of roots that are there.
也许我太乐观了,但我认为要阻止我们在网上看到的许多可怕事情,方法就是解决那个真正破碎的商业模式,正是它导致了我们今天所看到的在线社区。
And maybe I'm too much of an optimist, but I think the way that you stop a lot of, again, the the just horrible things we see online is by solving the business model that is really broken, that has led to the online communities that we have that we have today.
而且我们要摆脱那种非常以注意力为基础的经济,转向一个更加以信息和知识为基础的经济。
And and that we get away from what has been very much an in from a a excuse me, an attention based economy to one that is much more of an information knowledge based economy.
所以当我们思考互联网的未来会是什么样子时……
And so as we're thinking about, like, what does the future of the Internet look like?
这就是我们努力的目标。
That's what we're playing for.
所以,这其实是同样的权力。
Is that so it's the same power.
你,Cloudflare 在互联网上拥有很大的权力。
It you you have Cloudflare has a lot of power on the Internet.
作为一个平台层,你们有很大的影响力。
It's a platform layer of there's a lot of influence.
你们有能力阻止一些事情。
You're able to stop things.
在那些新纳粹网站的事情上,你们选择不使用这种权力。
In in the case of the neo Nazi websites, you declined to use your power.
这,不。
This is No.
不。
No.
我们,我的意思是,我们确实把他们从我们的系统里踢出去了。
We I mean, we do we do we kicked them we kicked them off our our our systems.
你说过,你不能让Cloudflare保护你免受DDoS攻击,然后也许他们就会用DDoS攻击把你打到彻底消失或者别的什么。
You said you we you can't have Cloudflare protect you from DDoS attacks, and then maybe they're just gonna DDoS to new oblivion or whatever.
或者,我的意思是,他们其实都还在。
Or or or I mean, they're they're all still around.
所以,从某种程度上说,这说明了它的局限性。
So that so so at some level, it, you know, it it shows that that it's limited.
但在这种情况下,你会使用你的权力。
But in but in this case, you're gonna use your power.
你会说,我们实际上会用Cloudflare来阻止事情发生,而这会创造一个市场。
You're gonna say we're actually we will use Cloudflare to stop things from happening, and that will create a market.
我想问题在于,你知道,权力。
I guess the question is, you know, power.
所以,你知道,注册Cloudflare只需要五分钟。
So, you know, it takes five minutes to sign up for Cloudflare.
我们有免费版的服务。
We have a free version of service.
离开只需要三十秒。
It takes thirty seconds to leave.
所以如果我们做了任何不符合客户利益的事,我们就会失去客户。
So if we're ever doing something that's not in our customers' interest, we'll lose our customers.
所以我们非常以客户为中心。
And so, you know, we are very much at the service of our customers.
我记得第一次有媒体公司打电话给我,说我们遇到了新的威胁。
And I remember the first time that, you know, a media company called me and said, you know, we have this new threat.
你必须阻止它。
You have to stop it.
你知道吗?
You know?
我当时就问,是什么威胁?
And I was like, what is the threat?
他们说,是那些AI公司。
And they're like, it's the AI companies.
我翻了翻白眼。
And I rolled my eyes.
我觉得这是我听过最蠢的事。
I was like, it's the dumbest thing I've ever heard.
为什么所有媒体公司都这么守旧?
Why are all media companies such Luddites?
但后来我们一查数据,发现确实,互联网的运作方式真的面临一个生存威胁。
But but then we only pulled the data and we saw that really, again, that there was an existential threat to how the Internet was working.
我觉得我们开始相信了。
And I think we became convinced.
我确实相信了,这件事值得我们花时间和资源去对抗。
I certainly became convinced that that this was something that was that was worth us spending our time and our resources on on fighting it.
所以,你知道,我觉得我们有一个非常有利的位置,因为我们为那么多公司提供了那么多价值,他们信任我们。
So, you know, again, think that we we have, you know, a a really privileged position because we have provided so much value to so many companies that are out there that they trust us.
但如果我们一旦搞砸了,他们马上就会离开我们。
But if we if we ever if we ever screw that up, you know, they'll leave us in a second.
所以,你说这是权力,还是只是对互联网的一种负责任的态度?
So, you know, is that power or or is that just being a good steward to the Internet?
现在是2026年。
It's 2026.
互联网上言论的性质已经变了。
The valence of speech on the Internet has changed.
如果今天再让你做关于Kiwi Farms和Daily Stormer的决定,你还会做出同样的选择吗?
If you had to make the Kiwi Farms Daily Stormer decisions again today, would you make them the same way?
我觉得每件事都是特定时刻的产物,而且,你知道,这些决定都有得有失。
I think each of those things is sort of a moment in time and there were, know, I think there are puts and takes under all those things.
我觉得在某种程度上,我们当时做关于Daily Stormer的决定时,没人知道Cloudflare是什么。
I think that the, you know, at some level, you know, we we at the time, like, no one knew, like, when we made the the decision around the daily storm, no one knew what Cloudflare was.
而且我们当时看到网上有很多监管措施,这些措施真的可能对互联网的基本运作方式构成真正的威胁。
And we were seeing a bunch of regulation that was that was happening online that was that was really could have been, you know, a real threat to the underlying way the internet worked.
像DNS和TLS这样的关键协议,监管起来挺麻烦的。
Regulating kind of key protocols like DNS and and TLS.
我们当时对此很担心。
And and we were nervous about that.
所以问题就是,你怎么表达这个观点?
So And the question was, how did you make that point?
所以,你知道,把Daily Stormer踢出去的一个真正原因,就是我们写文章、上新闻、在《华尔街日报》发评论,都是为了帮助我们界定什么样的政策决策才是正确的。
And so, you know, one of the real rationales of kicking Daily Stormer off was it we and then writing about it, talking about it, going on the news about writing another Wall Street Journal editorial about it was because it helped us then frame what was the right kind of policy decision was out there.
而且,我们上次聊过罗尔斯。
And and, again, you know, we talked about Rawls last time.
这次我想聊聊康德。
I'll talk about Kant this time.
你知道,我们那样做其实挺违背康德思想的。
You know, we very much offended Kant in that.
我们把这个网站当作达到目的的手段,而不是目的本身。
We were using this site as a means to an end that was not into a a, you know, itself.
但是如果你要把某个东西当作达到目的的手段,比如用来表达观点,那新纳粹分子用来做这个还挺好用的。
But but if you're gonna use something as a means to an end, like to make a point, neo Nazis are pretty fun to use to that point.
所以我觉得我们确实达到了目的。
And so I think we we were able to make the point.
我们确实在一定程度上改变了政策决定。
We were able to sort of change the policy decision.
我们能够讨论面临的挑战是什么,而且我们做到了。
We were able to talk about what the what the challenges were and we could do it.
所以今天,如果完全相同的状况再次出现,那也不会是完全相同的状况了。
So so today, if the exact same set of facts came up, it just wouldn't be the exact same set of facts.
因为现在,显然,Cloudflare 的名气大得多了。
Because today, obviously, Cloudflare is much more known.
我们已经进行过那些关于政策的讨论。
We've we've had those those policy conversations.
但这并不意味着,你知道,感觉好像每隔五年,就会有类似的事情冒出来。
And that that doesn't mean that, you know, it it it kinda feels like every five years, you know, another one of these things pops up.
所以我们可能很快又要遇到一次了。
So we're probably due for one sometime soon.
我觉得每次背后的情况都会非常非常不同。
I think that this the situation behind each of them is is gonna be very, very different.
这是来自Global的广告内容。
This is advertiser content from global.
大家好。
Hey, everybody.
本期Decoder Sessions由The Verge总经理Andrew Melazack与Global增长与创新全球管理合伙人Raj Sharma对话。
This edition of Decoder Sessions features Andrew Melazack, The Verge's general manager, in conversation with Raj Sharma, global managing partner for growth and innovation at Global.
希望你们喜欢这次对话。
I hope you enjoy this conversation.
我们来聊聊人工智能吧。
Let's talk about AI.
人工智能能给我的企业带来什么?
What is AI bringing to my enterprise?
安德鲁,从宏观层面来看,dot ai 是我们多年工作的结晶,我们构建了基础设施、智能层和合规生态系统,所有这些都整合进了一个重塑引擎,其中包含我们的技术平台、深厚的行业专长、深入的领域知识,以及我们带给客户的培训和人员,从根本上重新构想现有的流程。
So dot ai at a high level, Andrew, is a culmination of many years of work where we have built our infrastructure, intelligence layer, our compliant ecosystems, all bundled into a reimagination engine, which has got our technology platforms, our deep industry expertise, our deep domain knowledge and our training and our personnel that we bring to the clients to fundamentally reimagine that process that is out there.
当你与CEO、CTO、创新负责人坐下来交谈时,你看到的一些常见错误是什么?
What are some of the mistakes that you see when you sit down with CEOs, CTOs, heads of innovation?
你会说,好吧,我们可以介入,我们经常看到这种情况,我们可以帮你。
You're like, okay, we can get in here, we see this all the time, we can help you.
我们总是提醒客户要注意的一点是,在讨论AI时不要过于狭隘。
The one thing that we always ask our clients to watch out for is to get too narrow in the discussion of the AI that is out there.
AI的好坏取决于使用它的人。
AI is only as good as the hands that shape it.
如果你要投资这类技术,你需要从商业思维出发,明确你希望从企业角度创造什么价值,而不是采取技术优先的方法。
If you're going to invest into that type of a technology, you need to start with a business mindset of the value that you want to create from an enterprise perspective rather than taking a technology first approach.
审视业务,重新构想业务以及它未来的可能性,然后看看AI如何帮助你实现目标,这才是根本。
Looking at that business, looking at reimagining that business and what it could be in future and then looking at how AI can help you get there, that's the fundamental thing.
我通常先问编码器问题,我们刚刚进入正题。
I usually do the encoder questions first, we just got into it.
所以我想先快速问第一个问题,然后我想花很多时间在结构上。
So I wanna ask the first one first really quickly and then I wanna spend a lot of time on structure.
上次你上节目的时候,我问过你是怎么做决定的,我们聊了很久关于价值观和使命,以及你是怎么找到自己的价值观和使命的,然后你又回到了那个话题。
The last time you're on the show, I asked you how you made decisions and we had a long conversation about values and mission and how you kind of came to figure out what your values and mission were and you came back to that.
已经两年了。
It's been two years.
你现在还是那样吗?
Are you still there?
你还是用那个方式来做所有决定吗?
Is that how you make all your decisions?
完全是的。
Totally.
另一个大决定是你最近在五月份做的,你裁掉了1100人,你说这大约是公司人数的20%。
The other so the big decision you recently made in May, you laid off 1,100 people, which you said was about 20% of the company.
Cloudflare现在有多少员工?
How many employees is Cloudflare today?
大概在450万到500万之间吧。
Somewhere between 4,505,000.
所以跟两年前相比,你们是在增长的。
So you're growing compared to two years ago.
你非常公开地把裁员归因于公司内部对AI的使用。
You very openly attributed layoffs to AI usage inside the company.
我知道这是真的,因为你确实在《华尔街日报》上发表了一篇专栏文章。
And I know that's true because you literally published an op ed in the Wall Street Journal.
标题是《我如何选择用AI替代哪些员工》。
The title was How I Choose Which Employees to Replace with AI.
标题不是我定的,因为现在媒体的运作方式就是这样,他们会把标题改得很夸张,但内容确实是我写的。
I didn't get to choose the title because again, the way media works today is they rage rage rage rage rage the titles but that's but yes, but I wrote but I wrote the rest of it.
那篇专栏文章确实支持那个标题。
The op ed supports that title.
我不确定在《华尔街日报》发表社论就能说明事情是真的,但那是社论编辑的决定。
I don't know that that's how you tell that something is true that somebody wrote a Wall Street Journal editorial, but that's the editorial the editorial editor.
那就是标题。
That was the headline.
而且,你知道,开头是两周前,你裁掉了超过20%的员工。
And, you know, the opening is two weeks ago, you laid out more than 20% of your workforce.
那是你写的。
You wrote that.
然后你说你这么做不是因为Cloudflare遇到了困难,而是因为未来Cloudflare需要改变。我就想直接过一遍你的标准,特别想问问你这个标准。
And then you said you didn't do it because Cloudflare is struggling, you did it because so in the future, Cloudflare needs to change and I'm just going to run through your rubric and I just want to ask you about that rubric specifically.
你说你把员工分成了建设者、销售者和衡量者,基本上要裁掉所有做衡量工作的人,也就是所有审计职能的人。
You said you broke people into builders, sellers and measures and you're basically going to cut all the people who did measurement, all the audit functions.
不是全部,但很多。
Not all, but a lot.
确实是这样。
That certainly is.
我们裁掉的大多数人都属于那一类。这又回到了那些老派的基本商业研究,就是说任何公司都有三种职能。
The majority of the people that we laid off came from that that category of and this is so, you know, comes back to some, you know, old school basic, you know, business research, which is that there are three functions with any with any firm.
有一种人是负责建造东西的。
There's a there are people that build things.
比如工程师、产品经理,那些真正创造新产品的人,还有负责销售的人,那些在外面跑业务、把东西卖出去的人。
So the engineers, the product managers, the folks that actually create new products, the people that sell things, people that are out there actually doing the deals and and selling those things.
然后第三类就是,你知道,我们组织里很多很多的人,就是那些真正负责衡量事物的人。
And then the third category is what, you know, a lot of a lot of our organization is, which is the people that actually measure things.
而且,我觉得这三类人受到AI的影响方式会非常不同。
And and again, I I think each of those is going to be impacted by AI in very different ways.
最近我节目上来了很多软件公司的CEO,我们聊到AI如何颠覆每一家软件公司,我通常会问关于产品经理、设计师和工程师的问题,对吧,就是那些建造者。
I've had a lot of software CEOs on the show recently and we've talked about how AI is scrambling every software company and I usually ask about product managers, designers and engineers, right, the builders.
而这些角色全都乱套了,对吧?
And all of those roles are totally scrambled, right?
他们基本上都在做自己工作的一部分。
They're all kind of doing one of their jobs.
而且我不
And I don't
我觉得不是这样。
think that's true.
我确实觉得现在越来越需要多面手了,因为有了这些工具,产品经理能做很多工程师的活,工程师也能做很多产品经理的活。
I do think that there's a sort of increasingly jack of all trades kind of aspect to this where, you know, that that where because you can have these tools, you know, someone who's a product manager can do a lot of what an engineers do, someone with an engineer can do a lot of product managers do.
在这个领域里,真正胜出的是那些能左右开弓、样样都行的人。
And the people that are winning in that space are the people that can that are sort of ambidextrous.
他们能同时处理很多不同的事情。
They can do multiple different things out there.
但让我困惑的是,有些AI乐观派说我们都会失业。
But but like, I where where I get lost with some of the sort of AI maximalists are like, we're all gonna lose our jobs.
比如,如果我雇一个工程师,他们现在效率提高了十倍,这确实是事实。
Like, if I can hire a builder and they are now 10 times as productive, which is which is they are.
说实话,看着我们团队里那些工程师现在的效率,真是让人惊叹。
I mean, just it is wild to watch, you know, how much more productive, you know, are are the the builders on our team are today.
我会尽可能多雇这样的人,因为我有很多事情要做。
I'm gonna hire as many of them as I can because I got lots of stuff to do.
所以,这并没有降低我们招聘工程师、产品经理和其他人的积极性。
And so I I like, that hasn't decreased the incentive for hiring engineers and product managers and everyone else.
实际上反而提高了积极性,因为我在这些人身上花的每一分工资,现在能带来的回报几乎是原来的十倍。
It's actually increased the incentive because the return that I get for the salary dollars that I spend on one of these these people is now essentially 10 times as much.
所以当然,我会尽可能多地招人,这正是我们现在在做的。
And so of course, I'm gonna hire as many as as I as I possibly can, which is which is exactly what we're doing.
那你跟我讲讲这个决定是怎么做的吧。
So just walk me through this decision.
你某天醒来,说,我得……这是彼得·德鲁克说的吧?
You you woke up one day and said, I've gotta I am it's Peter Drucker, think is he quoted.
这个框架其实是来自“建设者、销售者、衡量者”那个模型。
It's built it is sort of the builder seller measure framework comes out of
对于懂行的听众来说,这是经典的管理学思想。
For for the decoder heads out there, this is like old school management philosophy.
你是怎么做出这个决定的?
You just how'd you make this decision?
你当时就想,我必须得这么做。
You were like, I I gotta do this.
我要把这些人分到这些类别里。
I'm gonna sort these people into these categories.
然后我们开始裁员。
And we're gonna start making cuts.
你在数据里看到什么证据了吗?
Did you see any evidence in the data?
给我讲讲。
Walk me through it.
我们看到了很多不同的东西。
We saw we saw a number of different things.
其中一件事是,世界似乎在分成两个阵营。
So so one thing that we saw was that the world was was sort of dividing into into two camps.
一个阵营,往往是组织内两种不同的群体。
One camp, tended to be sort of two different demographics within the organization.
要么是非常资深的人,要么是非常初级的人。
It was either people who are very, very senior or people who are very, very junior.
这些人简直疯狂地在用AI。
And those folks were like adopting AI like crazy.
初级的人是因为他们天生就熟悉这个。
The junior folks because they were just native to it.
资深的人是因为他们有信心,敢拿自己的职业生涯去赌,觉得这种范式转变能让他们学习新东西、迎接新挑战。
The senior folks because they they had the confidence to to to to to kind of bet their their career that that these paradigm shifts would be a way for them to kinda learn new things and take on new challenges.
而且他们对工作很有把握,所以敢这么做。
And they were confident enough in their jobs that they that they could they could do that.
另一类人,你知道的,就是那些职业生涯刚起步的人。
The the other camp was sort of, you know, the the folks who were kind of earlier in their, you know, career.
他们可能不是最资深的,但也不是刚进来的新人。
They might not have been the most senior folks, but they weren't just the brand new folks who had come in.
他们一路走来,受过培训,被教导说在商业中成功的方式就是遵守一套特定的规则。
So they'd come through and been trained and sort of been taught that way the way you succeeded a business was by playing by a certain set of rules.
然后突然间,他们看到周围的同事都在用这些新工具来完成任务。
And then all of sudden, they've they watched around them as their colleagues were all of a sudden, you know, using these new tools that were that were out there to be able to deliver these things.
我用的这个比喻虽然不太完美,但就像我们雇了最擅长用螺丝刀的人,想象一下我们的工作就是把螺丝拧进木头里,我们雇了最擅长用手动螺丝刀的人。
And the and the analogy, is wildly imperfect analogy that I use is it's it's like we had hired the best kind of screw if you imagine our job was to screw screws into wood, we hired the just the best people at using manual screwdrivers to screw screw screws into wood.
然后突然之间,我们发明了电动螺丝刀。
And then all of a sudden, we invented an electric screwdriver.
Eric出现了,我们买到了它。
Eric came along, we were able to buy it.
对大多数工作来说,不是所有工作,但大多数工作,用电动螺丝刀就是更好,能完成更多事情。
And for most jobs, not every job, but for most jobs, using the electric screwdriver is just better and you can get a lot more done with it.
而且,早期职业生涯的人或者晚期职业生涯的人都在采用它。
And, again, the people early in their career were the ones who who who adopted or the people who were kinda late in their career were were adopting it.
所以我们在2025年中期开始做的第一件事就是,嘿,各位。
And so the first thing that we sort of started to do back in kind of the middle of twenty twenty five was say, hey, guys.
现在情况是这样的。
This is what's going on.
我理解,如果你属于第二类人,你的所有动机都会让你去抵制电动螺丝刀。
And I understand all the incentives if you're if you're kind of in that second camp are to fight against the electric screwdriver.
但是,我们可以给你提供培训资源。
But, like, let's give you the resources to train you.
让你有信心,你会有工作,你会做这些事情,但我们要确保每个岗位的人都在学习如何做到这一点。
Let's give you the confidence that you're you're gonna have a job and you're gonna do these things, but let's make sure that everybody across every role is learning how they can how they can do that.
我认为这是你在初期必须采取的一个非常重要的步骤。
And I think that that's just a really important step that you have to do in the in the first part.
但后来我们发现,当我们让所有人,不仅仅是工程师,还有财务、法务等各个部门的人开始使用这些工具时,我们发现AI在衡量事物方面特别出色。
What we then learned though is that as we got everyone, not just the engineers, but people on finance and legal and anything else to start to use these tools, we found that one place where AI just shined was in measuring things.
我觉得我们很少讨论AI优势的一个方面是,AI确实有偏见,但这些偏见通常与组织其他部分的偏见不相关。
And I think one of the places where we don't talk about the advantage of AI enough are that, you know, AI is biased, but the biases are uncorrelated to the rest of the organization typically.
而人类有各种偏见,但一个团队一起工作时,他们的偏见是高度相关的。
Whereas humans have biases like crazy, but a group working together has biases that are massively correlated together.
即使你是在做内部审计,你应该扮演那个盯着每个人看的坏人角色。
Even if you're working on internal audit, right, and you're supposed to be kind of the bad guy who's looking over everyone's shoulder.
你还是会在同一个食堂吃午饭,和同样的人聊天,参加同样的全员大会。
Like you still go to lunch at the same cafeteria, you talk to the same people, you participate in the same all hands.
最终你会形成同样的偏见,但AI不会。
You end up developing the same biases, whereas AI doesn't.
它有一套非常不同的东西。
It has a very different set of things.
所以我们发现,可以用这些工具来大幅提高效率。
And so we found that we could use these tools in order to do things significantly more efficiently.
我们团队里有个叫希瑟的女士。
So there's a woman on our team named Heather.
希瑟之前在投资者关系团队。
Heather was on our investor relations team.
她负责带领一个团队,每次我们快要结账、准备发布财报之前(因为我们是上市公司),他们大约20个人会花两周时间,拼命工作,生成所有相关信息。
And what she would do was lead a team that every time we would kind of close the books before we'd have earnings because we're a public company, they would spend about two weeks, team about 20 people, and and they worked like crazy to generate all of the kind of information.
他们基本上是把数据整理好,然后生成文件,在财报发布时发给所有投资者。
They basically took the measurements and then generated documents that we would then distribute during earnings to all of our our investors.
希瑟当时就说,我觉得我们可以用工具把这件事做得更好。
And Heather was like, I think we can use tools to do this better.
于是我们把原本需要两周的工作,缩短到了三分钟。
And so we took what used to take two weeks, and we reduced it down to three minutes.
我们的投资者都惊呆了。
And our investors are like, wow.
这些文件质量好多了。
These documents are much better.
错误也少了。
There are fewer errors.
失误也少了。
There's there's there's there are less mistakes.
而且,你知道,我们的工具在审计所有这些不同的东西。
We've you know, and and our and our tools are auditing all of all of those different things.
所以对于那20个人,我们帮他们找了其他岗位,但他们很多人其实喜欢的就是那种工作。
And so for those 20 people, like, we look for other places for them, but a lot of them, what they like doing was that sort of work.
而且他们在做那种工作时会非常出色,就像希瑟在某个初创公司或其他地方那样,但我们只是不再需要某些职能了。
And and they would be great at doing that sort of work as the heather at some startup or somewhere else that was there, but we just didn't need some of the functions that were there.
而这些被裁掉的职能大多是那些以测量为主的工作。
And what it tended to be were all of those functions that that were largely measurement.
所以,是的,像内部审计这样的工作,我们实际上能够做得更高效。
And so, yeah, there was things like internal audit, which we were able to just get actually much more efficient at doing.
还有像中层管理这样的职位,传统上哈佛商学院的数据是,平均每个经理应该有大约六个直接下属。
There's also things like middle management where traditionally kind of the Harvard Business School number is that on average you should have, every manager have like six direct reports.
我们发现有了工具,我们可以在管理上更高效,对我们来说合适的数字开始变成,当我们让经理们拥有更多工具,能更早地发现问题并了解团队状况时,平均每个经理可以有大约十二个直接下属,而且每个人实际上都更满意。
We found with tooling, we could actually be much more efficient with managers and that the right number for us started to feel like when we enabled managers to have more tools to better participate in surface issues early and see how their team was doing, that we could get up to like 12 on average direct reports and everyone's actually happier in doing that.
这之所以重要,是因为当你增加直接下属的数量时,实际上是在减少任何组织中的层级数量。
And why that matters is because as you'd increase the number of direct reports, what you actually do is decrease the amount of hierarchy in any in any organization.
这是衡量一个组织是扁平还是层级分明的方式。
That's the way of measuring how flat versus how hierarchical organization is.
所以,我们再次利用这些工具说,嘿,让我们把组织扁平化,这使组织变得更快、更灵活。
And so, again, we could use these tools to say, hey, let's flatten the organization, which has made the organization much faster and more nimble.
但在这个过程中,有一大批中层管理者其实并不合适。
But in the process, there are a whole bunch of middle managers that just weren't the right folks.
所以我们当时就在想,天哪,我们知道这些岗位必须得砍掉。
And so, like, I think we sat there and we're like, gosh, we know we've gotta get rid of these jobs.
问题就是,我们是现在动手还是以后再动手?
And so the question is, do we do it now or do we do it later?
现在动手的问题在于,我们会觉得非常没有安全感。
And the problem with doing it now is like, we feel very exposed.
我们会觉得非常孤立无援。
We feel very alone.
我是说,我收到的死亡威胁数量,不只是来自我们的员工,还有那些反对人工智能的陌生人,真的挺吓人的。
Like, I mean, the number of death threats that I got, not and then not even from our employees, but from just random people who are sort of anti AI was was was really coming pretty scary.
但同时我们也在想,现在宣布这些变动,然后不仅提供丰厚的遣散费和其他福利,还努力帮这些人找到新工作,因为他们都是很优秀的人,这样做是不是更仁慈一些?
But but but at the same time, we're like, is it kinder to say we're gonna make these changes now and then do the work to not only give great severance and and everything else, but actually go place these people because they're great people.
把他们安排到其他岗位上去。
Place them at other positions around.
而且我们在各个方面都做得非常成功。
And and we've been very successful at doing that across the board.
还是说,更好的做法是先保住自己的位置,等到行业里其他人也都得出同样的结论再说。
Or is it better to kind of cover our own ass, wait until everybody else in the industry is is is is sort of saying is coming to the same conclusion.
顺便说一句,那个时刻就要来了。
And and by the way, that's coming.
优步刚刚裁员,理由完全一样。
Uber just did a a layoff, the exact same rationale.
你会看到整个行业,不只是科技行业,所有人都会开始意识到这一点。
You're gonna see across the industry, not just in tech, but everyone start to get to this realization.
我觉得我们行动得比较早。
I think we were early.
但问题是,是我们四月份做这件事的时候找工作更容易,还是明年四月份大家都这么做的时候更容易?
But is it gonna be easier to get a job back in April when we did this or next April when everyone is doing it?
一旦我们意识到这一点,我们就想,如果我们真的是领导者,就应该由我们来挡箭。
And once we kinda realized that, we were like, if we're real leaders, we should be the ones taking the arrows.
我们应该保护我们的团队。
We should be protecting our team.
我们应该努力确保,即使是我们告诉过‘听着,我们已经没有你的职位了’的那些人,
We should be working to make sure that even the people that we said, listen, we don't have a role for you anymore.
我们也能帮他们在其他地方找到好工作,因为他们都是很棒的人。
We can help them find great roles at other places because they're great people.
我觉得这才是真正的领导力。
And that that's that I think is what real leadership is.
而且我觉得,当我跟很多同行聊天时,他们其实都坐在那儿说,是的,我知道我们需要这么做,但是天哪,我看到你的股价跌得很厉害,你还收到了那些可怕的死亡威胁之类的东西,我可不想经历那些。
And I think a lot of when I talked to a lot of my peers, they're sort of sitting around saying, yeah, I know we need to do this, but gosh, I saw, like, your stock went way down and you got all these really scary, you know, death threats and other things, I don't wanna have to go through that.
我觉得那太怂了。
I think that's chicken shit.
如果你是个真正的领导者,就站出来,真正去做事。
Like, if you're a real leader, get out there and actually do the work.
而且,是的,经济方面会有很多变化。
And and, yeah, there's a lot of things about the economy that are gonna change.
但这并不意味着工作就没了。
Doesn't mean jobs are over.
我们会尽可能多地招聘建设者和销售者。
We're gonna hire as many builders and as many sellers as we possibly can.
而且我们团队里还有一些衡量标准。
And there are still some measures on our team.
有些人得去,你知道,去建设工具,去做那些事情。
Some people have to, you know, build build the tools and and do those things.
但未来的样子会非常不同。
But but what it's going to look like going forward is is gonna be very different.
一旦你作为组织意识到这一点,我认为越早做到,对团队就越仁慈。
And once you realize that as an organization, I think that sooner that you can do that is the kindest way that you can be to your own team.
另一个达科他州的常见说法是,结构是文化的一个粗略代表。
One another Dakota trope is that structure is a rough proxy for culture.
我总说,如果你告诉我你公司的结构,我就能猜出你大约80%的问题。
I'm always saying, if you tell me the structure of your company, I can tell you about 80% of your problems.
剩下的20%通常才是真正的精髓所在。
The 20% is usually where the actual magic is.
你的组织结构是怎么变化的,这又如何影响了你们的文化?
How has your structure changed, and how has that changed your culture?
嗯,我觉得首先是我们大幅精简了组织层级。
Well, think the first thing is we've just we've flattened the organization a lot.
很多中层管理岗位被取消了。
There's a lot of middle management that went away.
而且这不仅仅是因为裁员,还有一大批经理主动举手说,我不想再做管理了。
And and and not just because we laid people off, but there's a whole bunch of managers that are are raising their hand and saying, I don't wanna be a manager anymore.
我想回到一线做具体工作。
I wanna go back to being an individual contributor.
看到这么多资深高管放弃高职位,跑到Anthropic去做一线员工,真是让人感慨。
I mean, it's it's wild to see all these really senior managers that are leaving big jobs to go to Anthropic to be an individual contributor.
那是因为,你懂的,这样做能让你拥有更大的影响力。
And that's because, like, you can just there's so much more leverage that you can you can have.
我觉得经理和个人贡献者之间的界限会变得非常模糊。
And I think that what is a manager versus what's an individual contributor is gonna get really fuzzy.
这也是我们花了很多时间思考的问题之一,就是分成两条不同的职业路径到底有没有意义。
And that's one of the things that we're spending a lot of time thinking about is, does it even make sense to have those as two separate tracks?
也许最终会合并成一条路,因为你知道,现在连个人贡献者也要管理一群替他们干活的智能体。
Maybe that all merges together into into one thing because, you know, even individual contributors now are managing a fleet of agents that are working on on their behalf.
所以我觉得最大的变化就是我们大幅扁平化了组织架构。
And so I think the the biggest thing is that we've we've flattened the organization, you know, quite a bit.
另外,我们还通过一个叫 Cloudflare OS 的东西实现了集中化,现在我们已经把它开源了,因为很多客户都觉得这玩意儿太酷了。
And then I think the other thing is that we've we've centralized through something we call Cloudflare OS, which we've now open source because enough of our customers were like, that's really cool.
我们也想用这个。
We wanna use that too.
所以现在有一大堆客户拿它去改造,变成什么某某公司自己的 OS 之类的。
And so we've got a whole bunch of customers that are taking it and turning it into, you know, x y z company OS, whatever it is.
它其实就是一套工具,把 Cloudflare 内部积累的知识、那些必须坚持的原则、影响我们决策的因素都整合起来,然后让团队里的每个人都能方便地使用各种不同的工具。
But it's it's a set of tools that essentially takes a bunch of just the knowledge that's inherent to Cloudflare, the things that have to be true, the things that sort of inform our decisions, then and allows anyone on our team to have access to, you know, a wide range of the different tools that are out there.
但它会持续不断地拉取和更新那些必须成立的信息,这样当你想弄清楚,比如,从Salesforce或Workday,或者Cloudflare的任何记录系统里提取什么信息时,能够把这些信息整合到一个统一的界面里,这真的让我们的团队效率大大提升,跨部门协作也做得更好了。
But then continuously is pulling and updating the information about what has to be true and having it so that when you want to figure out, like, what information is is is pulling out of Salesforce or Workday or, you know, any of the systems of record that we have at at Cloudflare, being able to pull that into one consistent interface has just allowed allowed our teams to be significantly more productive and and a much better at cross collaboration.
这里有些东西可能只是软件公司的本质,就是这样,这是一种我能理解的世界观,因为软件公司和科技公司的运作方式就是,公司里发生的一切都在数字系统里。
There's something here which maybe is just the nature of a software company and and that's what it is and it's a it's a world view that I understand because of how software companies and tech company works, where everything that is happening in your company happens in a digital system.
然后那些东西就可以被衡量。
And then that thing can be measured.
你在你的文章里提到过这一点。
You've got a line in your piece.
作为CEO,我从来没有过这么好的工具来精确衡量业务表现,包括识别我们的新星。
As CEO, I've never had better tools to measure exactly how the business is performing including identifying our rising stars.
这意味着你的新星们产生的数据可以被AI衡量,然后AI可以告诉你这些人就是明星。
This implies your rising stars are producing data that could be measured by an AI and then the AI can tell you these people are the stars.
这让我觉得特别有意思。
There's something about that that is fascinating to me.
不是每家公司都这样运作,不是每个人的工作都是把每件事告诉Slack或者告诉Cloudflare OS。
Not every company works that way where everyone's job is to tell Slack everything that's going on or tell Cloudflare OS everything that's going on.
比如,他们在外面做实际的事情。
Like, they're out in the world doing stuff.
你怎么把这些点连起来?
How do you connect those dots?
因为这似乎是硅谷看待世界的方式和其他企业看待自己的方式之间的挑战。
Because that seems to be the challenge of how Silicon Valley might see the world and how every other business might see itself.
我觉得,我们都在不同时期做过一些工作,那时候会想,天哪,我这么努力却得不到认可。
I mean, I think that like, I think we've all at various times worked in jobs where we're like, gosh, I'm just not being recognized for for the hard work that I'm doing.
或者有时候,你会觉得自己被过度认可了,但其实我并不……可能我并不……
Or or other times where, you know, you're like, I'm kind of, like, over recognized and and I'm not and I and maybe I don't I don't
我从来没觉得被过度认可过。
I've never felt over recognized.
如果……
If if
如果能再多一点,那就太好了。
I could get some more, that'd be great.
你做得很好。
You're you're doing a great job.
那你能让你的聊天机器人告诉我怎么做好工作吗?
Now can you get your chatbot to tell me how to do a good job?
因为那会很有用。
Because that'd be really good.
所以,我觉得,再说一次,确实有很优秀的人在Cloudflare工作过,但过去我们错过了他们。
So the I I think that the again, I think I think it is absolutely the case that there have been great people who've worked at Cloudflare that we just missed in the past.
而且,原因有很多很多。
And and and and for, you know, a million different reasons.
也许他们所在的部门,我们当时没有给予足够的认可。
You know, maybe they're part of the organization that we just, you know, didn't didn't recognize enough.
也许他们没有遇到好的经理。
Maybe they didn't have a great manager.
也许他们没有意识到,这些工具的好处之一就是可以用不同的方式来表达,我们作为一个组织到底看重什么。
Maybe didn't think one of the things that's great about these tools is you can find different ways to say, what do we as an organization value?
然后再更广泛地看看,哪些人真正表现非常出色。
And then look more broadly across who are the people who are really performing incredibly well.
而且这必须让系统能够识别出来。
And that has to be legible to the system.
所以就像,AI会盯着每一次代码提交,然后说那个人做了很多事,或者那个人在Slack里对代理最友好,或者,得用某种方式观察他们。对。
So it's like, the AI is gonna watch every code commit and say that person's doing a lot, or that person is the nicest to their agents in Slack, or, like, have to watch them in some way Yeah.
来获取那些数据。
To get that data
从那里。
from that.
但每个组织内部其实都有各种各样的信号。
But there's there's all kinds of signal that that, you know, is inside of every organization.
所以你给我的,我,我卡在这个问题上了,而且我时间快不够了,抱歉打断一下。
So you give me I I'm just stuck on this, and I'm I'm running out of time, I'm sorry to interrupt.
但给我举个例子,说明AI如何通过信号帮你识别出后起之秀。
But give me an example of signal that helped you through AI identify rising stars.
所以我们知道哪些人是高绩效员工。
So we knew people who were high performers.
我们根据高绩效员工的表现来训练模型。
We trained models based on what their high performers were.
我们收集了大量相关数据。
We ingested a ton of things across that.
当然,显然包括代码提交和各种其他东西,但这些在某种程度上是可以被操纵的。
I mean, obviously, you know, code commits and and all all kinds of things, but those are gameable in in various ways.
所以你真的需要关注,比如,这个人做了这件事,然后追踪它在整个组织中的影响,最终带来了什么结果,是更高的收入、更低的成本,还是更好的团队协作。
And and and so you you really wanna look at kind of here, this person did this thing and then trace it all the way through the organization and what did that result in either higher revenue or lower cost or better kind of collaboration across the team.
而且,你说得对,因为我们是一家非常数字化的公司,所以我们有这些数据。
And and and again, you're right because we we have, you know, signal because we are a very digital digital company.
我们能够获取这些数据。
We're able to pull that.
但我认为每家公司都有各种形式的数据。
But but I think every company has, you know, signal in various ways.
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