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我们比以前更笨了吗?
Are we dumber than we used to be?
也许吧。
Maybe.
或者只是我们对什么是聪明的理解错了。
Or maybe we're just wrong about what it means to be smart.
我们的大脑是为了社交互动而进化的。
Our brains evolve for social interactions.
你知道吗?
You know?
所以当你在数学课上跟旁边的朋友聊天时,这其实才是我们大脑的真正用途。
So when you're, like, talking to your friend next to you in in the math class, that is actually what our brains are for.
本周《Vox》的《给我解释一下》:愚蠢的危机以及如何找回我们的大脑。
This week on Explain It To Me from Vox, our crisis of stupid and how to get our brains back.
新集数每周日上线,你在任何播客平台都能收听。
New episodes, Sundays, wherever you get your podcasts.
我是埃斯特班·赫尔南德斯,本周在《今日解读》中,我前往明尼阿波利斯,采访了总检察长基思·埃里森,他正在就移民与海关执法局(ICE)进驻本州一事起诉特朗普政府。
I'm Esteb Herndon, and this week on Today Explained, I traveled to Minneapolis to speak with attorney general Keith Ellison, who is suing the Trump administration over ICE descending on his state.
这意味着联邦现役军人将在我们的街道上巡逻,这令人担忧,因为ICE的运作方式已被一再证明存在严重问题。
It would mean that we had federal active duty troops patrolling our streets, which is concerning because the way ICE does its business is been proven over and over again to be deeply problematic.
《今日解读》每天都有新集上线,您可以在任何播客平台收听。您现在还可以在 youtube.com/fox 观看我们的周六访谈。
New episodes of Today Explained drop every day of the week wherever you get your podcast, And you can now watch our Saturday interviews at youtube.com/fox.
你好。
Hello.
欢迎收听《解码》。
Welcome to Decoder.
我是《连线》杂志的主编埃利·帕特尔。
I'm Eli Patel, editor in chief of The Verge.
《解码》是我探讨重大议题与其他问题的节目。
And Decoder is my show about big ideas and other problems.
今天,我将与亚马逊设备与服务部门高级副总裁戴夫·林普对话,更简单地说,就是负责Alexa的那个人。
Today I'm talking to Dave Limp, the senior vice president of devices and services at Amazon or more simply the guy in charge of Alexa.
戴夫在亚马逊的团队还负责Kindle电子阅读器、Ring和Blink安防摄像头系统、Eero WiFi路由器,以及众多连接亚马逊服务的其他产品。
Dave's group at Amazon also includes the Kindle e reader, the ring and blink security camera systems, the Era WiFi router, and a host of other products that connect to Amazon services.
亚马逊刚刚在所有这些类别中发布了一系列新产品,包括一个名为Astro的滚动机器人、一个专为孩子和祖父母设计的视频通话设备Amazon Glow,当然还有Echo智能音箱和显示屏的更新。
And Amazon just announced a slew of new products across all of those categories, including a little rolling robot called the Astro, a video chat device for kids and grandparents called the Amazon Glow, and of course updates to Echo smart speakers and displays.
你现在可以预订购买Ring家庭无人机,没错,这是一款能在你家周围飞行的安防摄像头无人机。
And you can now sign up to buy the Ring Home Drone, which yeah, it's a security camera on a drone that flies around your house.
因此,我们在《The Verge》上已经详细深入地报道过所有这些产品。
So we covered all those products in detail at length on The Verge.
所以我想利用这次与戴夫的对话,提出一些更宏大的问题。
So I wanted to use this time with Dave to ask bigger questions.
比如,他是如何决定亚马逊应该推出哪些产品的?
Like, how does he decide what products Amazon should make?
这些产品的成功标准是什么?
What does success look like for those products?
Ring、Blink和Eero都是亚马逊收购的公司。
Ring and Blink and Eero were all companies that Amazon acquired.
他是如何让它们协同工作的?
How did he manage making them work together?
亚马逊如何让戴夫的团队与其他庞大的亚马逊部门协作?
How does Amazon manage having Dave's team work with the other parts of Amazon's huge empire?
亚马逊拥有全食超市,我想知道戴夫是否需要考虑与全食超市合作?
Amazon owns Whole Foods and I wanted to know, does Dave have to think about working with Whole Foods?
这很奇怪。
That's weird.
我还想知道Alexa背后的商业模式是什么。
I also wanted to know what the business behind Alexa looks like.
亚马逊以接近盈亏平衡的价格销售Echo产品。
Amazon sells Echo products at basically breakeven.
它为所有这些产品免费提供Alexa服务,并雇佣了数千名工程师每天改进Alexa。
It runs the Alexa service for free for all of them, and it employs thousands of engineers who improve Alexa every day.
这如何盈利?
How does that make money?
它未来可能如何盈利?
How might it make money in the future?
我们该如何看待 Alexa 与 Google 助理或 Siri 等其他智能助手的竞争?
And how should we think about Alexa competing with other smart assistants like Google Assistant or Siri?
它们试图抓住哪些类型的商业机会?
What kinds of business are they trying to capture?
我认为答案可能出乎你的意料。
I don't think the answers are what you'd expect.
当然,我忍不住要提一下。
Of course, I couldn't help it.
我们谈到了 Astro 机器人和环形无人机。
We talked about the Astro robot and the ring drone.
我是谁?
Who am I?
这是一期很棒的节目。
This was a great episode.
我真的很喜欢和戴夫聊天。
I really like talking to Dave.
我们聊得挺深入的。
We got into it.
我觉得你会喜欢的。
I think you're gonna like it.
不过在开始之前有个提醒:如果你有 Alexa 音箱,应该把麦克风静音。
One note before we start though, if you have an Alexa speaker, you should mute the microphone.
这一期我们提到 Alexa 的次数很多。
We say Alexa a lot in this one.
好的。
Okay.
戴夫是亚马逊设备与服务部门的高级副总裁。
Dave senior vice president of devices and services at Amazon.
戴夫·林普,你是亚马逊设备与服务部门的高级副总裁。
Dave Limp, you are the senior vice president of devices and services at Amazon.
欢迎来到《Decoder》。
Welcome to Decoder.
很高兴来到这里。
It is great to be here.
在开始之前,Neelie,我应该先提前祝贺你们。
And, Neelie, before we start, I should just say early congratulations.
你们即将迎来十周年,我想说,你和你的团队所取得的成就令人惊叹。
You guys are about to turn 10, I think, and it is stunning what you and your team have pulled off.
你们的业务非常艰难,而你们能取得如此多的成就,影响如此多的人,让我衷心表示祝贺。
Your business is hard and to do as much as you've done and influence as many people as you have, it's just let me pass on my congratulations.
哦,谢谢。
Oh, thank you.
我非常感激。
I really appreciate it.
当我想到我们的竞争对手时,真正能算得上真正对手的,恐怕只有亚马逊了。
I think when you when I think about our rivals, it's only Amazon that's really in the list of true competitors.
不。
No.
我在开玩笑。
I'm kidding.
不。
No.
这十年的历程非常非凡,但我一直都在想,我们真的很幸运。
It's it's been it's been a remarkable ride for ten years, but one thing I I do think about the verge all the time is we were lucky.
我们成功的很大一部分原因是我们起步时,恰好赶上了许多刚刚兴起的领域。
A huge part of our success is we started at the right time next to a bunch of categories that were very early.
智能手机是我最常想到的,原因显而易见。
Smartphones is the one that I I think about the most for obvious reasons.
但Alexa和Echo系列产品几乎是在我们崛起的同时出现的。
But Alexa, the Echo range of devices came out right on top of us basically.
你在亚马逊已经工作了十年。
You've had a ten year career in Amazon.
我们一直与许多随着时间发展壮大的大类领域保持一致,这其中包含不少运气成分,我不愿忽视这一点。
Like, we've been aligned with a bunch of big categories that have grown up over time and there's an amount of luck to all of this that I don't wanna discount.
我认为这在我们所有人的职业生涯中都是如此,但我也想说,你有自己的观点。
I think that's always true in all our careers, but I would also just say that you you had a point of view.
你坚持了它。
You stuck with it.
它在很多方面对客户来说是独特的,这一点已经显现出来了。
It was different in the right ways for a lot of customers, and that that's showing.
所以,我喜欢你的谦虚,但尽管如此,我认为你和你的团队已经做出了出色的工作。
So, like, I like I like your modesty, but still, nevertheless, I think you've done you and the team have done great work.
我认为我们是最有焦虑感的科技网站。
I think we're the angstiest tech website.
让我们看看。
So let's see.
来谈谈我们的感受吧,戴夫。
Let's get into our feelings, Dave.
所以亚马逊上周发布了一大堆新产品。
So Amazon announced a bunch of new stuff this past week.
很多产品,你总是会举办包含大量产品的活动。
Tons of products, you always do events with lots of products.
我确实想聊聊所有这些产品。
I do wanna talk about all of those.
但你知道,Decoder 这档节目更注重广泛深入的探讨。
But, you know, Decoder is kind of a more expansive show.
所以在那之前,我想先理清一下设备和服务在亚马逊内部的位置,以及你负责的具体内容。
So before we do that, I just wanna situate where devices and services live within Amazon, what you are in charge of.
因为亚马逊是一家结构和运营方式都非常独特的公司。
Because Amazon a pretty unique company and how it's structured and how it's run.
那么,作为设备与服务部门的高级副总裁,你在亚马逊具体负责什么?
So senior vice president devices and services, what are you in charge of at Amazon?
总的来说,我负责所有面向消费者的电子产品,我们的策略是将这些产品与服务深度结合。
Broadly, all of the consumer electronics based products and and our strategy is to deeply couple those with services.
这一切始于我们的传统,也就是Kindle。
It starts with our heritage, which was the Kindle.
所以最初是从Kindle开始的,后来发展出了许多其他产品,比如Fire TV、平板电脑、Echo和Alexa,正如你提到的。
So it started with Kindle and it's evolved to a large number of other products, Fire TV and tablets and Echo and Alexa, as you mentioned.
与这些产品配套的许多服务也归属于这个部门。
And many of the services that are coupled with those also sit in the organization.
我们努力像你所说的那样,把团队保持在一起,以便能够快速创新。
We try to keep the organizations, as you said, together so that you can invent very quickly.
此外,我还有几个其他项目并入了我的部门。
And then I have a couple other projects that roll into my organization.
我们的低地球轨道卫星Kuiper就在我的部门下,还有我们通过收购Zoox公司开展的自动驾驶出租车业务。
Our low Earth orbit satellite called Kuiper is in my organization, And then our self driving taxi efforts through the company we acquired called Zoox.
Aisha负责那部分,但这些也归属于我的部门。
Aisha runs that, but that also rolls rolls into the org.
你花多少时间在新的Kindle、Echo设备和Alexa上?
How much time do you spend on new Kindles and Echo devices and Alexa?
你花多少时间在低地球轨道卫星上?
How much time do you spend on low Earth orbit satellites?
这取决于我们前方有哪些关键里程碑,时间安排会有所不同。
Well, it it varies depending on what milestones are kind of ahead of us.
所以,每一天都不一样,但每件事都会得到足够的关注。
So it like, if I I there's no kind of one day that's the same, but, know, they all get a good amount of time.
但我倾向于更多地活在未来。
But I tend to try to live in the future a bit.
你知道,当我活在未来时,我可能最开心。
You know, I'm I'm probably at my happiest when I'm living in the future.
那些事情也更具不确定性,可能需要更多投入和决策。
Those are also the things that have more ambiguity and might need a little bit more input and decision making.
但这份工作最棒的地方是——我认为这是我世界上最好的工作——因为你能够如此灵活地切换上下文。
But the best part of the job is, and I do have, I think, the greatest job in the world, is that you can context switch like that.
你知道,我可以在一次会议中深入研究Kindle上最佳的阅读字体,而在下一次会议中,我们就讨论卫星的发射能力。
And, you know, I can be deep diving on what the right reading font is on a Kindle in one meeting, and the next meeting, we can be talking about launch capacity for satellites.
这非常有趣。
It's super fun.
我经常思考的一个问题是时间线。
One of the things I I think about a lot is timelines.
你一开始提到了《The Verge》。
You mentioned The Verge at the beginning.
我就举个例子吧。
I'll just use a version example.
我们有团队,他们的工作周期是二十分钟。
We have teams of the verge that live on a timeline of twenty minutes.
你知道,世界上发生一件事,我们的新闻团队必须迅速做出决定,并在二十分钟内发布新闻文章。
You know, something happens in the world, our news team has to make some decisions and ship a news article within twenty minutes.
这通常是常态。
It's usually standard.
我们也有一些长达两年的报道、研究和调查时间线。
We have some timelines that are two years of reporting and research and investigation.
你一般负责什么样的时间周期?
What What kind of timelines do you work on?
我猜卫星项目可能是几十年的周期,而推出下一代Kindle可能是一年。
I imagine that the satellites are a multi decade timeline, and I imagine shipping the next Kindle might be a year.
你最短的周期和最长的周期分别是多少?
What's your shortest one and what's your longest one?
这就像你说的,取决于产品。
It depends on the product as you said.
但如果我们做软件,那就是敏捷开发。
But, you know, if we're doing software, it's agile.
你知道,我们采用敏捷流程,就在我们开这五分种电话的工夫,可能已经更新了Alexa的某个功能。
You know, we use an agile process and we've been on this call for five minutes or whatever now, and there's probably been an update to Alexa that's happened in that timeframe.
代码的更新在软件和服务端是持续不断进行的。
Some piece of code is rolled out and that's happening continuously on the software and the service side of the fence.
如果是耐用硬件,比如我们今天已经熟悉的一种迭代型产品。
If it's a piece of durable hardware where you're rolling out, let's say, an iterative kind of product that we know how to do today.
我认为,当我们最快的时候,可能在六到八个月内就能做出一些有趣的东西。
I think when we're at our fastest, we could probably do something interesting in six to eight months.
有时候是一年,但这类产品的周期通常就是这样。
Sometimes it's a year, but that's kind of the cycle on those kinds of products.
如果涉及创新,那就一切皆有可能了,因为不幸的是,创新并不总是遵循你设定的时间表。
If invention is involved, then all bets are off because unfortunately, invention doesn't work on the timeline that you necessarily dictate.
你常常需要找到一个突破,或者解决一个需要多次迭代或多次尝试的问题。
Often you have to come up with a breakthrough or you have to figure out a problem that requires, multiple iterations or multiple different tries at it.
这些尝试常常以失败告终,然后你得重新开始。
Often those end in failure and you've got to restart again.
所以这些很难预测。
So those are harder to predict.
就像你所说的,还有一些长期项目,比如柯伊伯计划,自动驾驶出租车,还有Alexa成为《星际迷航》中计算机的终极愿景。
And then like you said, there's some long term efforts that Kuiper is an example, self driving taxis is another example, Alexa's North Star vision of being the Star Trek computer.
这些项目的实现时间肯定以数年计,甚至可能是数十年,才能达到最终目标。
Those are measured in certainly multiple years, if not decades, in terms of how they're gonna get to the North Star.
你多久知道一次正在发生的事情?
How often do you know what's going on?
你似乎管理着一个庞大的组织。
It seems like you run a vast organization.
你多久能具体知道你的团队下一步要做什么?
How often do you know specifically what your teams are doing next?
比如,你说过Alexa的一个更新刚刚发布了。
Like, you said some update to Alexa has just shipped out.
我猜会有一封邮件发到你的收件箱,告诉你接下来会发生什么,但你可能看也可能不看。
I'm assuming there's an email that you may or may not read that comes to your inbox and says what's gonna happen.
但你有多频繁地亲自按下按钮来推动某件事发生?
But how often are you the one who pushes the button to make something happen?
我并不总是亲自按下按钮。
I don't necessarily push the buttons.
说实话,我已经很久没写代码了,虽然我曾经受过这方面的专业训练,但现在我不会再亲自部署代码了。
You know, I'm not it's been a long time since I've written code and, you know, even though I was classically trained to do so, but I don't push a button to deploy code any longer.
顺便说一下,我如果插手反而会碍事。
I'd be getting in the way, by the way.
团队里有很多聪明得多的人,他们能做得更好。
There's lots lots of smarter people on the team that can do that better.
我认为,我最能发挥作用的地方是资源分配。
Generally, where I'm best utilized, I think, is resource allocation.
这是一个相当庞大的组织,需要合理分配资源,我觉得我能在这方面提供帮助。
It's a reasonably large organization, and it and it needs the proper allocation of resources, and I think that I can help with that.
其次,是亚马逊所说的‘单向门决策’——那些需要判断、需要退一步仔细思考、深入权衡的决策,因为这些决策虽然不是无法逆转,但逆转时会带来影响,尤其是涉及客户时。
And then secondarily, decisions that are in Amazon speak, we would call them one way door decisions, decisions that require judgment, that you want to take a step back, you want to think harder about them, and you want to contemplate them because they're not impossible to reverse, but they have ramifications if you reverse them, especially as they relate to customers.
所以,这些是我会参与的决策。
So those would be decisions that I'm involved in.
最后是创新流程,它有自己的决策框架。
Then finally, the invention process, which has its own decision framework.
通常来说,我认为我在这里能带来一些价值。
That's typically where I think I can add some value.
我们组织内部以及整个亚马逊拥有大量的发明者,但我想,随着时间的推移,我可能已经犯过足够多的错误,足以让我从中总结模式,避免再犯同样的错误。
We have a huge set of inventors in the organization and throughout Amazon, but I think that I can, on the edges over the course of time, have probably made enough mistakes that that I can that I can try to pattern match against those and and not do them again.
所以我问每一位高管这个问题。
So I ask every executive this question.
你特别适合回答这个问题,因为我问每一位进入《Decoder》的高管关于他们的决策框架,是因为我知道亚马逊有一套一类和二类决策框架。
You are uniquely primed to answer it because the reason I ask every executive who comes in Decoder about their decision making frameworks is that I know Amazon has the type one, type two decision making framework.
有些决策更容易逆转,有些则很难逆转。
Some decisions are easier to reverse, some decisions are hard to reverse.
你的决策框架是什么?
What is your decision making framework?
嗯,我刚刚已经阐述了做决策时的三种不同情境。
Well, I just laid out the kind of three different versions of when you're making decisions.
对于每一个类别,情况都不同。
And for each of those buckets, it's different.
无论是运营问题,还是一类或二类决策,或是单向门或双向门决策,其框架都强调与高判断力的人员坐下来,审视与决策相关的数据,并始终将客户放在首位。
An operational issue that is a type one or type two or a one way door or two way door decision, that framework is a lot about sitting down with high judgment individuals, inspecting the data that is in around the decision, really putting the customer front and center there.
顺便说一下,客户并不总是最终消费者。
The customer, by the way, isn't always necessarily an end consumer.
开发者。
Developer.
它也可能是合作伙伴。
It could be a partner.
你知道,有非常多不同的方面。
You know, there's lots of different aspects.
然后在讨论建议时,团队通常会提出:‘根据数据,哪一个选择能带来最好的客户体验?’
Then walking through the recommendations, the team usually tees up and saying, okay, which one does the data lead you to that's going to have the best customer outcome?
这就是高判断力决策的框架。
That's the framework for those high judgment decisions.
顺便说一下,如果我一天能做出两个这样的决策并且都正确,那就是非常棒的一天。
By the way, if I go through a day and can make two of those and they're right, it's a very good day.
那真是非常棒的一天。
That's a very good day.
但创新过程非常不同。
But the invention process is very different.
它有一个不同的决策框架。
It has a different decision making framework.
我们使用一种称为‘逆向工作’的过程。
We use a thing we call the working backwards process.
在我们的业务中,我们很少使用PowerPoint或Keynote。
We don't use PowerPoint or Keynote that much inside of our business.
我们撰写叙述性文档,这些文档通常有六页长。对于亚马逊内部的任何新产品,该文档的第一页是一份新闻稿,仿佛你明天就要发布该产品。
We write narratives and the narratives are six pages long and a new product, any new product inside of Amazon, the first page of that narrative is a press release as if you were launching the product tomorrow.
接下来的五页通常是常见问题解答。
And then the next five pages is frequently asked questions.
这将如何实现差异化?
How is this going to be differentiated?
它将如何定价?
How would it be priced?
为了实现这一点,你必须解决什么样的创新问题呢?等等等等。
What invention do you have to solve to be able to do this, etcetera, etcetera?
还有很多类似这样的问题需要涵盖。
And there's a bunch of those questions that go in.
这些文档提交上来后,我们会进行评审,但这个过程要混乱得多。
And those docs come and we review them, but that process is much messier.
我很少会看到某个新产品有这样一份倒推文档。
It is very rare that I would see a working backwards document like that for any new product.
可能是最初的Echo或最初的Kindle,我们一看就能批准。
Could be the original Echo or the original Kindle, and we would approve it the first time you saw it.
通常,这需要多次迭代。
Normally, takes many iterations of that.
这关键在于,我们希望这份文档尽可能完美,因为一旦我们同意了这份文档,决策就已做出。
And what's critical about that is that because we really want that to be as good as we possibly can make it, because as soon as we agree on that document, the decision is made.
这个项目就获得了绿灯。
That project is green lighted.
下一步是找一位全职的负责人来推进这个项目。
The next step is go find a single threaded leader to run that project.
找一个每天全身心投入的人,他的唯一任务就是让这个产品落地,因为你绝不想让任何人兼职做创新。
Somebody that wakes up full time every day, their job is to make that product happen because you never want to have somebody inventing part time.
这是一件非常重要的事情。
That's like a very important thing.
因此,这个过程往往更具迭代性。
And so that's why that process tends to be more iterative.
我们当然仍试图快速推进,但相比一类和二类决策会议,它确实更混乱、更缓慢。
We still try to do it quickly, obviously, but it's definitely messier and slower than type one, type two decision meeting.
你们团队有多大?
How big is your team?
我们没有具体说明,但之前提到过像Alexa这样的项目。
We haven't said specifically, but I would say, like, we have said things like Alexa.
仅在公司内部,就有超过一万人在从事Alexa相关的工作。
There's well over 10,000 people just working on Alexa in the organization.
这让你对我们所处的规模和正在尝试做的事情有了一个概念。
So that gives you a sense of the kind of scale that we're we're at and what we're trying to do.
我跟每个人都谈过芯片短缺的问题。
I talked to everybody about the chip shortage.
它正在影响每个人。
It is affecting everyone.
它对亚马逊有影响吗?
Is it affecting Amazon?
我认为,正如你所说,它影响了每个人。
I think, as you said, it's affecting everyone.
我认为我们都在以自己的方式应对,而且人们往往过于简化了这个问题,只说这是芯片短缺。
I think we're all responding in our own ways, and depending it's not just I think people oversimplify the problem, and they say it's a chip shortage.
这不仅仅是芯片短缺,因为不同组件由于各种原因都面临供应链问题,而且这种情况每周都在波动和变化,形势非常动态。
It's not really just a chip shortage because different components for different reasons are facing supply chain issues, and that ebbs and flows and changes every week and it's a very dynamic situation.
我们看到了,我们也无法幸免。
We see it, we're not immune to it.
我认为我们成功地为绝大多数产品保持了库存,但这离不开众多团队的辛勤努力。
I think we've been able to keep in stock in the vast majority of our products for customers, but that is a lot of work by a lot of teams.
顺便说一下,有些短缺不仅仅是零部件问题,而是工厂因新冠疫情爆发而停产,因此你必须想办法应对工厂停产的情况。
Some of the shortages, by way, aren't just parts, they're a factory gets shut down because they have a COVID outbreak, and therefore you've got to figure out how to mitigate around a factory situation.
所以我不希望简化这个问题,我们并非置身事外,但我想多亏了运营团队的辛勤工作,我们总体上还是灵活应对了。
So I wouldn't want to oversimplify this problem, we're not immune, but I think we've largely bobbed and weaved, thanks to the hard work of my ops team.
你认为芯片短缺还会持续多久?
How long do you think the chip shortage will last?
同样,这取决于具体的零部件。
Again, it depends on the components.
有些零部件已经缓解了,你已经开始看到它们恢复到更正常的使用水平。
There'll be some components that have already freed up, and you've already start seeing them get back to a more baseline usage.
有些零部件的交货周期非常长,因为必须新建晶圆厂。
There's some that are very long lead because literally new fabs had to be built.
新建晶圆厂并达到满产规模需要两到三年的时间,所以我如果给你一个确切的日期,那就是在简化问题。
That's a two to three year process to come up to full scale on a new fab, so I'd be oversimplifying it by giving you one date.
以这种方式回答这个问题是不可能的。
It's just impossible to answer that question that way.
你最近举办了一场活动,发布了大量新产品。
You recently had an event where you announced a bunch of new products.
其中一些产品来自你收购的公司,比如Ring和Eero。
Some of them are from companies that you acquired like Ring and Eero.
我认识那些创始人,杰米·西莫诺夫和尼克·韦弗。
I know those founders, Jamie Simonov and Nick Weaver.
他们是出色的电缆领域领导者。
They're smart cable leaders.
他们曾是这些公司的首席执行官。
They were the CEOs of those companies.
他们在亚马逊内部仍保留着首席执行官的头衔。
They still retain the title of CEO at Amazon inside of your organization.
你会让他们按照亚马逊的方式工作吗?
Do you make them work the Amazon way?
他们是在经营自己的小王国吗?
Are they running little fiefdoms?
这到底是怎么运作的?
How does that operate?
顺便说一句,我觉得尼克和杰米都非常出色。
By the way, I think Nick and Jamie are great, first of all.
当我们收购一家公司并让他们成为我们大家庭的一员时,你最不想做的就是抑制他们的创新,尤其是因为你为这些公司投入了真金白银。
And I would say that when we acquire a company and they become part of the family, the thing that you don't want to do, especially because you're spending real dollars on these companies, is you don't want to stifle their innovation.
所以我从两个角度来看待这个问题:他们有哪些做法值得我们借鉴,从而改变我们的流程、决策框架和内部机制?我们应该吸收并采纳这些优点。
So I sort of look at it both ways, which is what do they do that should inspire us to change our processes, our decision frameworks, our mechanisms internally, and we should be inspired by those and glom them on.
但当尼克和杰米加入我们时,我也对他们说了同样的话:听着,你们要按照自己的节奏,把亚马逊看作一个自助餐菜单,选择那些你们认为能帮助你们成熟业务、保持快速增长、继续保持敏捷并为顾客创新的元素。
But I also said the exact same thing to both Nick and Jamie when they joined the family, as I said, listen, you should, at your pace, you should look inside of Amazon and look at it as like an a la carte menu and adopt the things that you think will help mature your business and keep your growth going fast, continue to be scrappy, continue to invent on behalf of customers.
但我非常确信,组织其他部分的某些东西也能帮助你们。
But I'm very certain there are things inside the rest of the organization that will be able to help you.
所以现在,几年过去了,在这两种情况下,我经常看到来自Ring、Blink或Arrow的新产品,都是以‘逆向工作文档’的形式呈现的。
And so now, a couple of years later in both those cases, very often when I see a new product that comes from Ring or Blink or Arrow, it comes in the form of working backwards documents.
并不是所有的都这样。
Not all of them.
Jamie 仍然会在早上醒来后决定去资助并推动一些想法,但他们也采纳了其中一些,因为他们喜欢这些做法。
There's still ideas that Jamie wakes up in the morning and decides to go fund and and make happen, but they use some of that because they've liked that.
我们的运营团队中也有一些部分。
There's parts of our operations team.
我们每年都会发货大量产品,能够顺利地完成运输、制造、逆向物流、可靠性等各项工作,这些能力会随着规模扩大而提升,我们也越来越熟练。
We ship a lot of product every year and being able to do that smoothly with transportation and manufacturing and reverse logistics and reliability and all those kinds of things, those get better at scale and you get better at it.
他们也利用了其中一些能力。
And they've taken advantage of some of those capabilities too.
我希望有一个放之四海而皆准的答案,但实际情况更像一个自助餐菜单。
So I wish there was kind of a one size fits all answer, but it does feel more like an a la carte menu.
顺便说一句,这些公司还有一个很好的特点,我想补充一下,这也是我们在收购公司时会考虑的一部分:首先,他们的文化是否已经与我们契合?
And the nice thing about all those companies too, by the way, that I would just add to that, and it's kind of part of what we think about when we do do acquisitions and we look at companies, is first, do they fit with our culture already?
对吧?
Right?
所以当你观察Jamie的情况时——我不是在针对Jamie,但就Jamie Simonoff而言,他所倡导的以邻居为中心的文化,其热情程度丝毫不亚于亚马逊的以客户为中心的文化。
So when you looked at Jamie's I I'm not picking on Jamie, but if you look at Jamie Simonoff in this case, his neighbor focused culture, they call their customers neighbors, it was as passionate as Amazon's customer centric culture.
这很有帮助,因为这样一来,你们实际上说的是同一种语言,尽管词汇可能略有不同,但核心理念非常相似。
And that helps because then you don't you're really kinda talking the same language, maybe with a slightly different vocabulary, but it's very, very similar.
此外,这些团队的另一个共同点是,我个人非常喜欢他们的所有产品。
And also, those teams, the other thing that they had in common is I personally loved all their products.
我真的非常喜欢这些产品。
I just loved them.
当你试图让客户感到惊喜时,拥有出色的产品是一个绝佳的起点。
And when you're trying to delight customers, it's such a good start when you have when you have great products.
你可以用普通的产品让客户感到惊喜,但如果你有出色的产品,那你就能立刻全速前进,而这些公司都拥有出色的产品。
Like, can delight customers with okay products, but if you have great products, you know, you're immediately running at full speed and and all of those companies had great products.
在最近的这次活动中,你发布了Ring Pro Bridge,或者说是Ring Bridge Pro——这些词的顺序可能有点乱,但这是首次将Ring和Eero技术整合在一起。
At this last event, you announced Ring Pro Bridge Ring Bridge Pro, It's some order of those three words that integrates Ring and Eero technology for the first time.
你这是在说:‘好了,孩子们,你们得好好合作了。’
Is that you saying, alright, you have to work together kids.
这是自然发生的吗?
Like, is that organic?
你们是怎么实现这种整合的?
How do you make that integration happen?
是的。
Yeah.
这是Ring Alarm Pro。
It's Ring Alarm Pro.
Ring Alarm Pro,新名称是三个词。
Ring Alarm Pro, say new, is three words.
你得给我点认可。
You gotta give me credit
这功劳归我。
for that.
这不错。
That that's good.
我确实这么做了。
I do.
我非常认可你的贡献。
I give you a lot of credit.
这太棒了。
That's awesome.
你这么一说,听起来好像有种独裁的味道。
The way you phrased it made made it sound like there's some dictatorship.
实际情况完全符合我在发明过程中所描述的:我们写了一份反向工作文档,大致勾勒了下一代Ring基站会是什么样子。
What happened was exactly what I described in the invention process, which is we wrote down a working backwards document basically on what would the next version of the Ring base station look like.
从中衍生出的一个想法,我记得当时讨论过,就是你可能希望你的互联网连接有备份。
And one of the things that came out of that was this idea I remember having the conversation, was this idea that you might want your Internet to have backup.
我住在华盛顿。
I live in Washington.
这里风很大。
We have wind.
我有一个发电机,因为我的电力经常中断,所以我有电力备份。
I have a generator because my power goes down pretty often, and so I have power backup.
但在过去十年里,互联网对我来说和电力一样重要。
But the Internet is equally as important to me as my power as we've gone through the past decade.
我不确定这算不算一项人权,但它确实感觉极其重要。
It's like I don't know if it's a human right, but it sure feels really important.
因此,关于能够备份互联网的想法,在这个产品中,它内置了LTE功能,可以自动切换。
And so this idea of being able to back up the Internet, in the case of that product, it has LTE built into it, it flips over.
一旦需要切换,你就会想,如何才能做到无缝切换呢?
And once you have to flip over, then you'd kind of go, well, how do you do that seamlessly?
显然,最合理的做法就是把它放在路由器的背面。
Well, it made all the sense in the world that it would be on the back of a router.
我们有一家公司叫Arrow,他们正在制造世界级的Mesh路由器。
We had a company, Arrow, which is building world class mesh routers.
所以,这真的始于客户问题,并最终促成了一种更好的协同方案。
So it it really started with the customer problem first and led to a better together scenario.
我认为这样做的方式更好,而不是简单地说Aero必须与Ring兼容。
I think that's the better way to do it than just say, Aero must work with Ring.
Ring必须与Blink兼容。
Ring must work with Blink.
根据我的经验,这些方案短期内可能可行,但长期来看,组织会抵制,因为它们往往不符合客户的需求。
Those generally, in my experience, they will work in the short term, but in the long term, the organization will rebel against it because it often is not right for customers.
我只想问你一下。
I'll just ask you.
我家有Ring摄像头。
I have Ring cameras at my house.
我家有Blink摄像头。
I have Blink cameras at my house.
我家有Eero路由器。
I have an Eero router at my house.
我觉得你经常出现在我家里。
I feel like you're in my house a lot.
为什么我的Ring摄像头和Blink摄像头不能一起工作?
Why don't my Ring cameras and my Blink cameras work together?
是的。
Yeah.
我认为这是操作顺序的问题。
I think that's order of operations.
你已经开始看到一些情况发生了,比如Ring Alarm Pro与Arrow之间的相互配合就是一个很好的例子。
You start seeing some of it happening already that the Ring Alarm Pro with Arrow back and forth is a good example.
当这些公司加入亚马逊时,它们已经有自己的发展路线图了。
When you have these companies join Amazon, they have their own roadmap already.
所以,你知道,当你收购一家高增长、创新型公司时,最糟糕的做法就是干扰那些充满热情、正在创造和壮大这个品牌的创始人,这是任何此类收购失败的秘诀。
And so, you know, again, the last thing you want to do when you buy a high growth innovative company, the recipe for failure in any acquisition like that is screw with the passionate founder that is inventing and growing this brand.
别这么做。
Like, don't do that.
让他们做自己最擅长的事,也就是创新。
Like, give let them do what they do best, which is invent.
但随着时间的推移,你开始看到这些设备逐渐融合在一起。
But over time, you can begin to start seeing the things become together.
所以今年,Alarm Pro去年已经实现了与Alexa的集成,让Alexa可以通过Echo Show和Fire TV接听你的门铃。
So this year, Alarm Pro, last year we had Alexa integrated so that Alexa could answer your doorbell on Echo shows and Fire TVs.
当你家门铃的视频直接显示在你面前的屏幕上时,这就是已经整合并打通的系统。
You can see when your doorbell, the video on your screen right in front of you, that's integrated and plumbed through.
因此,多年来我们一直在这些方面取得更多进展,而且这种趋势还会继续。
So over the course of the years, we are making more progress on all of these, and that will continue.
所以是的,我希望有一天,Blink用户和Ring用户能够互相混用这些设备。
So yes, there will be a day, I hope, where, you know, a a Blink customer and a Ring customer can intermix them.
如今,你可以让两者都连接到Echo Show,通过这些API实现协同工作。
Today, you can have them both connect to an Echo Show, so they come together through those APIs.
但随着时间推移,我认为我们还能做得更多。
But over time, I think we can do even more.
这个问题在亚马逊看来似乎具有分形特性。
This problem seems kinda fractal at Amazon.
那句话是什么?
What's the phrase?
是松耦合、紧协同吗?
It's loosely coupled, tightly aligned?
我认为我们在组织上是松耦合的,但如你所说,我们在战略上是紧密协同的。
I think we're we're loosely coupled organizationally, but we're as you said, we're tightly aligned strategically.
对。
Right.
亚马逊的管理理念是我见过的最有纪律性的。
Amazon's management ethos is disciplined as any company I've ever seen.
同时,你们在组织内部运行着各种设备和服务。
At the same time, you run devices and services inside of your organization.
从外观像米老鼠的Echo Dot,到卫星宽带系统,有多个不同的公司。
There are multiple companies starting with, you know, an Echo Dot that looks like Mickey Mouse to a satellite broadband system.
然后你们再扩展到亚马逊。
And then you scale out to Amazon.
亚马逊经营一家杂货店。
Amazon runs a grocery store.
亚马逊显然经营着一家零售业务。
Amazon obviously runs a a retail business.
他们运营着全球最大的云计算系统AWS。
They run AWS largest cloud computing system.
这些运营原则在更高一层级上是否相同?
Is it the same set of operating principles one step up?
你是否曾被要求与全食超市合作?
Do you ever get commanded to work with Whole Foods in any way?
还是说你们只是在办公室里偶然碰面?
Or is that do you just like run into each other in the office?
比如,我们应该想办法在Alexa上做杂货业务。
Like, we should find a way to do groceries on Alexa.
这又是怎么运作的?
How does that work?
我不确定我有没有去过,我在这里已经十一年半了。
I I don't know if I I don't know if I've ever I've been here eleven and a half years.
我不确定我是否曾经被命令去做这样的事情。
I'm not sure I've ever been commanded to do something like that.
我有很强的动力去做这类事情,
I'm highly incented to do stuff like that,
不过。
though.
因为当事情对各种利益相关者——比如客户、开发者或其他类型的人——最有利时,我们才会把亚马逊的各个部分连接起来。
Because when things work best for all sorts of constituents, it could be customers, developers, other types of people, is when we do connect the dots around Amazon.
一个很好的例子就是Prime会员。
And, you know, a good example of that is Prime.
Prime最初只是两天送达的配送服务。
You know, Prime started as a two day shipping benefit.
非常重要,而且非常棒。
Super important and really good.
但现在你可以观看亚马逊原创剧集,《时光之轮》即将上线。
But now you can get Amazon Originals, Wheel of Time's coming up.
你可以,你知道的,提前做好准备。
You can, you know, get get prepared for that.
这是个好计划。
It was a good plan.
你
You
我在这里就是为了帮忙。
I'm I'm here to help.
说实话,我真的很期待《时光之轮》。
Actually, I'm just excited about Wheel of Time, to be perfectly honest with you.
但它还带来了阅读福利和音乐福利。
But it also has a reading benefit, and it also has a music benefit.
随着这些功能的逐步推出,Prime用户的体验也会越来越好。
And as each of those happen, the experience for a prime customer gets better.
但这并不一定就此结束。
But it doesn't necessarily end there.
我以Kindle为例,这是我们最古老的产品线,至今仍然是我最喜欢的之一。
I'll use Kindle as an example, our oldest product line, still one of my favorites.
当你开始把这些点连接起来,并加入Prime权益时,你就能引入良性循环的其他部分,比如作者。
When you start connecting those dots and you add a Prime benefit, then you can bring in other parts of the virtuous circle, in that case, authors.
我的岳母是一位作家。
My mother-in-law was an author.
她幸运地拥有了一位经纪人,她写的是温馨推理小说,但许多作者并没有这样的机会。
She was actually lucky enough to have an agent, and she writes cozy mysteries, but so many authors didn't.
但现在,有成千上万的作者通过Kindle直接出版,真正靠它谋生。
But now there are hundreds of thousands of authors that are making a real living off of Kindle because they can directly publish.
只需点击一下按钮,你就能发布作品。
It's one button and you publish.
于是,顾客有了更多选择,因此更愿意回来阅读,阅读能力也随之提升。
And then all of a sudden now customers have more selection and then therefore they come back to read more and literacy goes up.
所以当你开始把这些点连接起来时,这些飞轮中其实存在许多积极但不易察觉的元素,我可以在亚马逊内部举出几十个这样的例子。
And so when you start connecting the dots, there are really positive elements to those flywheels that are kind of unseen, but I can give you dozens of examples of those throughout Amazon.
因此,作为亚马逊的领导者,你并不是被迫去这么做,但当你看到它运作时带来的喜悦和巨大影响,你就会自然而然地想去这样做。
And so it's not that you're forced to do it as a leader at Amazon, but you you see the delight and you see the oversized impact when it when it works.
顺便说一下,我们经常尝试,但并不总是成功。
By the way, a lot of times we've tried it and it doesn't always work.
失败的例子多得是。
There are plenty of examples of failures.
但当它成功时,你就能真正看到它的价值。
But when it does, then you start seeing the real benefit.
我们可以短暂休息一下,但回来后我们还要和戴夫·洛夫聊更多内容。
We can take a quick break, but we have a lot more to talk about with Dave Love when we get back.
过去一周,我们很多人都花了很多时间观看明尼阿波利斯街头发生的事情的视频,试图理解我们所看到的,分辨什么是真实的、什么是虚假的,什么是AI生成的,以及这些视频是谁拍的——要弄清楚信息来源,现在比以往任何时候都更困难。
A lot of us have spent a lot of the last week watching videos of what's happening on the streets of Minneapolis and understanding what it is that we're seeing, but also what's real and what isn't and what's AI and who is taking these videos and how we're supposed to understand the source feels harder than ever.
因此,本周在《The Vergecast》节目中,我们将讨论明尼阿波利斯正在发生的事、在人工智能时代信息是如何传播的,以及如何理解这一切意味着什么。
So this week on the Vergecast, we're talking about what's happening in Minneapolis, how information moves in an AI age, and what it means to make sense of it all.
展开剩余字幕(还有 480 条)
所有这些内容,再加上关于新版 TikTok 的最新动态、为什么在 TikTok 上一切都感觉在崩塌,更多内容请收听 The Vergecast,各大播客平台均可收听。
All that plus what's new with the new TikTok, why everything feels like it's falling apart on TikTok, and more on the Vergecast wherever you get podcasts.
本期节目由 Zoom 赞助支持。
Support for today's show comes from Zoom.
当所有工具协同工作时,工作效率会更高。
Work moves faster when everything works together.
Zoom 将会议、聊天、文档和 AI 助手整合在一个强大的平台上,帮助团队保持专注和连接。
Zoom brings meetings, chat, docs, and AI companion together all on one powerful platform designed to help teams stay focused and connected.
所有功能集中于一体,协作更加顺畅,创意更容易流动,项目推进也更快。
With everything in one place, collaboration feels smoother, ideas flow easier, and projects move forward faster.
它智能、简洁,专为人类设计。
It's smart, simple, and built for people.
掌控你的工作日,高效完成更多任务,立即前往 zoom.com/podcast 加入这场变革。
Take control of your workday, get more done, and join the movement at zoom.com/podcast.
领先一步。
Zoom ahead.
我们再次邀请到亚马逊设备与服务高级副总裁戴夫·林普。
We're back with Dave Limp, the senior vice president of devices and services at Amazon.
我们来聊聊你上周发布的所有产品吧。
Let's talk about all the products you announced last week.
你总是会快速接连发布新产品。
You tend to have rapid fire product announcements.
上周,你发布了新的Ring摄像头和Ring Alarm Pro。
So last week, you announced some new Ring cameras, the Ring Alarm Pro.
这次我总算说对了。
I got it right that time.
还有一款Ring家庭无人机。
There was a Ring Home Drone.
还有一款Alexa机器人。
There's an Alexa robot.
还有一款专为儿童设计的Alexa设备,方便他们与祖父母视频通话。
There's an Alexa device for kids to video chat with grandparents.
还有一款新的Echo Show。
There was a new Echo Show.
为什么一次性发布这么多产品?
Why announce all the products at once?
这与其他科技公司非常不同,它们通常试图让你一次只关注一个产品。
It's very different than other tech companies, which try to focus you to one at a time.
为什么要做这种快速连续的发布活动?
Why why do the rapid fire events?
秋季是我们倾向于发布大量产品的时期。
The fall is when we tend to launch a lot of products.
我们并不强制规定这一点,但通常我们会尝试在春季做一些发布,然后在秋季集中发布一大堆产品。
We don't dictate this, but we generally try to do some things in the spring, and then we do a bunch of stuff in the fall.
这基本上就是我们创新所遵循的周期。
Those tend to be the kind of just the cycle we're on in terms of invention.
这并不意味着中间没有其他产品发布,但重要的大项目通常都集中在这个时间点。
It doesn't mean lots of stuff doesn't happen in between, but the big rocks tend to do that way.
所以秋季不仅是最近的,我们之前也推出过几款其他产品。
So in the fall was not just it's it's the most recent, but we also had, you know, a couple other launches as well.
我们前一周推出了全新的Kindle,三周前还发布了一系列电视类产品,包括我们自家的电视,这是第一次,还有全新的4K Fire TV Stick。
We had a brand new Kindle that came the week before, and we had a whole host of TV based products, including our own TVs for the first time three weeks before that and a new four k Fire TV stick.
所以这些产品其实是相互配合的。
So it's really about these things come together.
那为什么我们要把它们都集中到一场活动里发布呢?
And then why do we put them into one event like that?
说实话,我们对此争论了很久。
We debate that a lot, to be honest with you.
如果我们把它们逐一发布,我觉得对顾客来说反而更难跟进。
It's a function of if we dribble them all out, then I I think it's also just harder for a customer.
顺便说一句,你也是这些产品的用户。
And by the way, you you are a customer of that.
对吧?
Right?
因为你的工作是报道好消息、坏消息和中性消息。
Because your job is to report good, bad, and indifferent, the news.
当我们知道你们忙于其他公司的活动和其他很多事情时,如果把消息慢慢释放出来,感觉会更有效率。
And for us to kind of dribble it out when we know you're busy with other companies' events and lots of other things going on, it feels like it has some efficiencies to it.
但我也不确定这是否完美,你知道的?
I'm not sure perfected though, you know?
但当你看看我们所追求的横向布局时,我们有很多不同的产品线。
But when you look at the horizontal nature of what we're trying to do, we have a lot of different product lines.
我为所有这些产品线感到自豪,但这也确实累积起来了,你知道吗?
And I'm very proud of all of them, but that also just adds up, you know?
我们有很多团队在进行创新,这些创新加在一起就形成了规模。
We have a lot of teams inventing and it adds up.
有些是全新的,比较大胆,有时会让人惊喜;有些则是渐进式的,但它们都基于我们每天醒来后都会从客户那里获得360度反馈这一事实。
And some are net new and they're a little bit more audacious and sometimes they surprise people and some of them are more iterative, but they are based on the fact that we wake up every day and we have a three sixty feedback loop from our customers.
他们会留下评价,我们会阅读这些评价,他们每年还会拨打我们的客服热线724365次。
They put reviews up and we read them and they call our customer service 724365 a year.
我们聆听这些电话,并了解我们的产品需要改进的地方。
And we listen to those calls and we know what we have to fix in our products.
我们知道在许多迭代工作中,下一代产品需要做哪些调整。
We know what we have to do for the next generation of our products for a lot of our iterative work.
所以把这些都汇总起来,通常会是一个繁忙的一小时。
And so you had all that up, and it tends to be a busy one hour.
是的。
Yeah.
我总是很好奇科技公司是如何规划这类营销活动的,因为实际上只有少数几种策略。
I'm always curious how tech companies plan their their marketing events of this kind because there there's actually only, like, a handful of strategies.
坦率地说,大多数人已经逐渐模仿苹果的策略。
And most people, to be candid, have sort of drifted towards copying Apple's strategy.
但我认为你们的做法非常不同。
But there I think the way you all do it is is very different.
我一直很好奇,推动你们这样做的原因,是因为不想看起来和别人一样,还是因为你们真的有很多东西要发布?
And I've always been curious about what drives is it we just don't wanna look like everyone else is starting to look, or is it, man, we got a lot of stuff.
我们只需要把它发布出去。
We just gotta get it out the door.
是的。
Yeah.
我离开苹果已经很久了,所以我不了解他们的策略。
It's been a long, long time since I was at Apple, so I don't know their strategy.
我当然会观看他们的发布会,但我确实觉得他们有自己的观点,知道你们和终端客户想听什么。
I watch their events certainly, But I I do feel like they have their viewpoint on what what they think you and the end customer want to hear about.
我认为我只能谈谈我们的观点,那就是我们想传达的核心:我们正在为顾客进行创新。
I think I can only speak to our viewpoint, which is what we want to try to get across is that we're inventing on behalf of customers.
这可以说是我最想强调的第一点。
Like, is the number one thing I would say.
所以,我们在发布会开始时,视频是最精良的吗?
So do we have the most polished video when we start our events?
不是。
No.
我们通常使用用户生成的视频,内容是我们认为有趣的、由客户发送过来的素材。
We generally use UGC based video of stuff that we think is fun that customers sent in.
画面有点粗糙,也不够精致。
It's a little grainy and it's a little not as polished.
但确实,这些是真实的。
But yeah, but it's real.
比如,有人在前门台阶上,就在Ring摄像头前求婚,然后把视频发给了我们。
Like, that is what you know, somebody is proposing on the front doorstep in front of a Ring camera, they sent it in.
天啊,多么令人喜悦的时刻。
It's like, oh my god, what a joyful moment.
而Echo正在帮助视力受限的人听书。
And an echo is helping somebody that has limited eyesight listen to a book.
这同样是一个令人喜悦的时刻。
That's just a joyful moment.
我不替别人说话,这正是我们希望围绕产品传递的视角。
Not speaking for others, that's the lens that we want to introduce our products around.
当你推出世界上前所未有的新产品时,比如亚马逊Glow旨在让孩子们和祖父母团聚,或者机器人,又或者是像无人机这样的始终在家摄像头,你就需要做更多解释。
Then when you have net new to the world things, you mentioned Amazon Glow for trying to get kids and grandparents together or a robot or always home cam in the case of the drone.
因为你得说,嗯,你真的做了这个吗?
Then you have to do a little bit more explaining because it's like, well, did you do this?
所以这些产品需要一些教学和讲故事的成分,因为它们是前所未有的。
And that and so there's a little teaching and storytelling as part of those because they're net new to the world.
你希望将它们置于某种语境中,无论对错——我们发明它们的初衷,因为我们还没有客户反馈来通过用户视角讲述这些故事。
And you do wanna put them in the context, right or wrong, our context, the reason why we invented them and because we don't yet have customer feedback on them to be able to tell you the story through the customer's eyes.
那我们从这里开始吧。
Well, let's start there.
这真是个完美的过渡。
That's perfect segue.
去年发布的无人机。
The drone announced last year.
现在你们正在接受预订。
You're taking preorders now.
你已经获得了一年的反馈,有些非常积极,有些非常兴奋,也有一些非常 cynical。
You've gotten a year of feedback, some very positive, some very excited, some very cynical.
你们有可以分享的数据吗?
Do you have any numbers to share?
人们有在预购这个产品吗?
Are people preordering this thing?
是的。
Yeah.
开局非常顺利。
It's off to a great start.
这是邀请,不是预购。
It it's invites.
这不是预购。
It's not preorders.
这是
It's
邀请。
invites.
所以,其实就是邀请。
So, like, it's invites.
但没错,这些邀请的数量非常强劲。
But, yeah, the invites are are strong.
前几天晚上我和杰米讨论过,情况比我预想的要好得多。
I was having the discussion with Jamie the other night, and it's much stronger than I would have predicted.
你说亚马逊以那种模糊的语言而不是数字著称,是什么意思?
What is do you mean Amazon is famous for kinda squishy language instead of numbers.
你能分享一个具体数字吗?
Is there a number that you can share?
我去学校学模糊表达。
I go to school for squishy.
不行。
No.
我不能分享具体数字。
I can't share a number.
但确实更强了。
So but but it's stronger.
但那其实并不重要。
And but that doesn't really matter.
数字就是数字。
The number is the number.
重要的是我们上线后,客户开始使用并给出反馈,他们是否在使用它?
What matters is when we ship it and customers start reviewing it, and are they using it?
这才是真正重要的。
Like, that's all that matters.
这占了100分中的99分。
That's 99 out of a 100 points.
如果我们做对了这一点,好事自然会随之而来。
And if we get that right, then good things will come.
如果我们没做对,就需要快速调整方向、迭代,直到做对为止。
If we don't get that right, then we need to quickly pivot and iterate and get it right.
但就邀请量这个指标而言,起步比我会预想的要好。
But it is off to you know, as invites as a measure, it's off to a better start than I would have predicted.
事实上,任何全新产品都会面临质疑者。
And the fact of the matter is that any new to the world product is going to have its cynics.
顺便说一句,我推测,如果你没有遇到公开的质疑者,那说明你在创新时冒险得还不够。
If you do by the way, I I would postulate that if you don't have vocal cynics, you didn't take enough risk in your invention.
这不过是又一个跟风产品罢了。
It's just another me too thing.
它并不是真正全新的东西。
Like, it's not new to the world.
所以我认为,一个敢于大胆冒险的优秀新产品,总会伴随着这样的噪音。
And so I would say for a good new product that took a bunch of risk, there's always gonna be that noise.
所以,Ring无人机是一款Ring摄像头,可以检测噪音和运动,然后起飞,在你家上空飞行,向你展示正在发生的事情。
So the Ring drone is a Ring camera that can detect noise, motion, take off, fly on your house, show you what's happening.
你还有Astro机器人,这也是你宣布的。
You have the Astro robot, which you also announced.
是的。
Yep.
这不是环(Ring)的产品,而是亚马逊的产品。
Not a ring product, an Amazon product.
这是一个可以在你家里四处移动的机器人,配备一个望远镜式的摄像头和屏幕,可以查看各种东西。
That is a robot that can roll around your house with a camera on a periscope and a screen and look at stuff.
为什么无人机是环的产品,可以查看东西,而Astro却不是环的产品,也不能查看东西?
Why is the drone a ring product that can look at things and the astro not a ring product that can look at things?
如果你画一个Always Home Cam和Astro的维恩图,它们在移动摄像头这个方面会有重叠。
If you were drawing the Venn diagram of Always Home Cam and Astro, they would overlap in terms of a mobile camera.
所以中间确实有一部分重叠,但Always Home Cam无人机是专门为此任务设计的。
So there is an area in the middle, but the Always Home Cam drone, it is dedicated to that task.
当它不执行该任务时,会停在充电座上,摄像头被遮挡。
And when it is not doing that task, it is sitting in its dock, camera obfuscated.
它在底座里面。
It's inside the dock.
它根本没出来,而且也不做别的事。
It's not even out, and it it does nothing else.
这就是它的用途。
That is its utility.
顺便说一下,我觉得那里有很多实用价值。
And by the way, I think there's a lot of utility there.
从品牌角度来看,这完美契合了Ring的品牌承诺——让您的社区和家庭更安全。
And so from a brand perspective, that fits unbelievably well under the umbrella of make your neighborhoods safer, your home safer, which is Ring's brand promise.
所以这简直是不言而喻的。
And so that was a no brainer.
这是一个Ring产品。
It's a Ring product.
至于Astro的功能,其中确实有一小部分是明确的安全应用场景。
And so then of what Astra does, there's a small segment of it, which is a security use case for sure.
在许多方面,它比始终在家摄像头功能更多。
It can do more than the always home Cam in many ways.
它可以看到无人机无法到达的不同位置。
It can see different places that the drone may not be able to see.
它可以进行多次巡逻。
It can do multiple patrols.
它可以在你在家时进行巡逻。
It can patrol when you're home.
无人机会太吵。
The drone will be too loud.
你不想在你在家睡觉时让它巡逻。
You don't want it to patrol when you're home and sleeping.
但它还有许多其他功能。
But it also has a bunch of other functionality.
它具备Alexa功能。
It has Alexa functionality.
你可以通过它听音乐。
You can listen to music through it.
它可以把电话转接给你。
It can bring a call to you.
它能帮助实现我们在发布活动中提到的一个功能,也就是老年护理。
It can help with one of the things we pointed out at the launch event was, you know, for elder care.
亲人可能会愿意把它放在身边,这样你能更安心。
A loved one, might feel comfortable putting it with them so that it can give you peace of mind.
所以这是一个更通用的用途。
And so that's a much more horizontal thing.
因此,我们回到我们对话的第一部分,我们将 Ring 深度集成到了 ASTRO 中。
So what we did is going back to our first part of our conversation is we deeply integrated Ring into ASTRO.
所以它能与 Ring 配合使用。
So it works with Ring.
如果你现在打开我的 ASTRO 应用并开启摄像头,我就能在 Ring 应用和我的摄像头拼贴视图中看到它。
And, you know, if I brought up my ASTRO app right now and I turned on the camera, I would see it in my Ring app and my mosaic of cameras.
我会在那里看到它。
I would see it there.
但这个品牌更适合一个完全全新的产品。
But it the brand was better for something completely net new.
顺便说一下,我们也没有叫它Echo,因为它远不止是一个回声。
By the way, we also didn't call it echo because it's more than just an echo.
所以,想出一个新名字是非常合理的。
And so it it made a lot of sense to come up with something new.
最后,就像所有的命名会议一样,我们最终确定了一个名字,有些人会喜欢Astro,有些人则不会。
And in the end, you know, like all naming meetings, we landed on something and some people will love Astro and some people won't.
摄像头的价值通常在于摄像头另一端的人,尤其是对于Ring摄像头和Astro摄像头而言。
The value of the camera is usually for the person on the other end of the camera, especially for Ring cameras and Astro cameras.
被Ring摄像头拍摄的人很少希望自己成为视频的主角。
The person who the Ring camera is looking at rarely wants to be the subject of the Ring video.
真正重要的是打开Ring应用、观看摄像头实时画面的那个人。
It's the person who's opening the Ring app and seeing what's happening on the camera.
我的意思是,这经常让Ring陷入麻烦。
I mean, that gets Ring into to trouble a lot.
对吧?
Right?
很多人批评Ring与警方部门有合作。
There's a lot of criticism that Ring is integrated with police departments.
存在隐私方面的担忧。
There's privacy concerns.
涉及是否同意加入或退出的问题。
There's opt in opt out.
大多数Ring摄像头都是为房屋外部设计的。
Most of Ring's cameras are designed for the exterior of your home.
现在你却把这些摄像头带进了家里。
Now you're bringing those cameras inside the home.
它们是可移动的。
They're mobile.
你如何看待谁能够被看到、这些视频如何传送给当局,以及Ring作为中间角色的这种关系?
How do you think about that relationship between who gets to be seen, how this video goes to authorities, how Ring acts as that intermediary?
在这些讨论中,这个问题经常出现吗?
Does that come up a lot in these conversations?
经常被提到的是,专注于家内的摄像头与家外摄像头的使用场景。
What does come up a lot is the use case for a camera that is focused in your home versus out of your home.
你知道,家外的摄像头,你需要确保它不会拍到邻居的财产。
You know, cameras focused out of your home, you wanna make sure it doesn't touch on your neighbor's property.
所以我们设计了可以绘制多边形并设置禁入区域的功能。
So we, you know, build you can draw a polygon and have keep out zones.
你得考虑如何接收通知,因为通常是通知在驱动行为。
You wanna think about how do you get notified on it because it's often a notification that drives.
它可能只是一个门铃事件,但也可能是有人经过你的聚光灯摄像头,或者更常见的是,你想吓走一只鹿——你知道的,一些真正实用的场景,比如它在吃你的花园。
It might just be a doorbell event, but it could also be somebody walking past your spotlight camera or, you know, more often than not, it's you want to scare away a deer, you know, some real use case, you know, eating your garden or something.
所以户外摄像头有其特定的使用场景。
So outdoor cameras have their set of use cases.
室内摄像头有着完全不同的使用场景。
Indoor cameras have a very different set of use cases.
顺便说一下,这正是像‘始终在家摄像头’这样的产品灵感来源——有些客户不希望在每个房间都安装摄像头。
And by the way, that that's what inspires something like the Always Home Cam, which is some customers will not wanna put a camera in every room.
他们就是不想。
They just won't.
主要是出于隐私考虑。
It just for the privacy reasons.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
也有些人愿意在某些房间安装摄像头。
There are some that will want to put them in some rooms.
他们想监控自己的狗或猫,而这些宠物通常总在同一个地方睡觉,他们希望偶尔能远程查看一下宠物的情况。
They want to keep track of their dog and their dog norm or cat and then normally sleeps in one place, they want to have that experience to be able to drop in it from time to time on their pet.
对于那些不希望在每个房间都安装摄像头的客户来说,当他们外出度假或上班时,如果触发了警报,他们想看看发生了什么——是误报还是真实情况,能够有一架无人机直接飞过去查看,而无需在每个房间都安装摄像头,这似乎是一个非常好的解决方案。
So for the customer that doesn't want a camera in every home, but when they're away, they're on vacation or they're at work and something triggers and they want to see what's going on, is it a false alarm or is it something actually real, Being able to have a drone go straight there, but not have to have the idea that you have cameras in every room, it seems like a really good solution for that.
首先,我们的思维模式是区分室内或向内拍摄的设备与向外拍摄的设备。
So the first thing is our mental model is things that are indoors or inward facing versus outward facing.
我们有着完全不同的思维模式。
We have a very different mental model.
但在所有这些之下,还存在一个横向的隐私层面。
But there is a horizontal level of privacy that's underneath all of those.
你必须倾听客户和专家的反馈。
And you do have to listen to the feedback from customers, pundits.
我认为我们确实做到了。
And I think we have.
我们最初为警察部门设立的首批响应计划,也包括消防部门和其他机构,我们听取了客户的反馈。
What was our original first responder program for police departments, but also fire departments and other things, we heard the feedback from customers.
由于这些反馈,我们在过去两年里彻底改变了这个计划。
And we've totally changed that program over the last two years because of that feedback.
我认为不听人们的反馈才是不负责任的。
I think what would be irresponsible would be not to listen to people.
所以现在,警方必须提供有效的案件编号。
And so now it's a police department has to have a valid case number.
他们不能只是随意要求查看视频。
They can't just ask for the videos.
他们必须提交正式申请。
They have to put a request out.
客户必须主动选择同意。
Customers have to opt into it.
这个项目和以前相比已经有了很大的不同。
It's a much different program than it than it once was.
另一个例子是,有些客户根本不想让任何人接触到他们的视频。
Another example of that was some customers just don't want anybody to ever have their videos.
因此,这并不容易,我们仍在逐个摄像头地推进这一措施。
And so it was not easy, and we're still rolling this out by cameras.
但现在,许多Ring摄像头已经可以开启端到端加密。
But but a bunch of the Ring cameras now, you can turn on end to end encryption.
就连亚马逊,我们也无法获取密钥。
Then even Amazon, we don't have the key.
即使我们想给任何人视频,也无法提供,因为我们没有解锁它们的能力。
We couldn't give the videos to anybody if we tried because we don't we don't have the ability to unlock them.
因此,可查看的视频。
And so viewable videos.
我们大约六个月前推出了这个功能的首个版本,目前还没有其他公司这么做。
We rolled that out, the first versions of that, maybe six months ago or so, and we're still nobody else is doing that.
所以我认为,我们的职责是保持领先。
So I I think it our job is to stay ahead.
当我们推出一些让客户或评论家产生负面反应的功能时,我们应该倾听这些反馈。
And when we do roll things out that that customers react negatively to or or pundits, that we should listen to that feedback.
当他们是对的时,我们应该愿意改变自己的想法。
And when they're right, we should be willing to change our minds.
我认为你在那个案例中看到了我们的做法。
And I think you saw us do that in that case.
那么,你认为这个心理模型需要多长时间?
So How long do you kind of the mental model.
你觉得这个周期需要多长时间?
How long do you think that cycle takes?
我们以Astro为例吧。
Let's use Astro as an example.
它已经发布了。
It's announced.
你可以找到大量正面和负面的反馈,但还没有人真正拥有它。
There's endless amount of feedback, positive and negative that you can go find about it, but no one has it yet.
还没有人体验过它。
No one's experienced it yet.
你会等到有一定数量的人拥有它并开始留下评价后,才觉得 okay 吗?
Do you wait until some x number of people have it and they start leaving reviews before you're like, okay.
我们必须开始纳入反馈,还是说,嘿。
We have to start incorporating feedback, or is it, hey.
这东西还没发布呢。
This thing isn't shipped yet.
我们收到了很多反馈。
We're seeing a lot of feedback.
我们可以在产品出厂前进行调整。
We can adjust the product before it goes out the door.
首先,已经有人拥有它了。
First of all, there are people that have it.
但他们并不是亚马逊员工。
They're just not people that aren't Amazonians.
所以,你知道,我们并不是只把它做出来就直接发货了。
So, you know, you know, we we don't just build it and then ship it off.
我家里断断续续地用过一个 Astro 的版本,已经超过一年了。
We I've had a version of Astro off and on in my house for over a year.
是我很好吗?
Is it me good?
有时候我特别喜欢它。
There's time I love it.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是,做个产品评测员吧。
I mean, be a product reviewer.
什么好,什么不好?
What's good and what's bad?
这取决于你什么时候问我的这个问题。
Well, it depends on when you had asked me that question.
如果你一年前问我的话,我会告诉你它每次都无法自己回到充电座。
If you'd asked me that question a year ago, I would have told you it can't find its way back to its dock every time.
但现在我们已经解决了这个问题。
But now that's we've solved that problem.
而且你知道,随着时间推移,软件会变得越来越好。
And, you know, so over the course of time, you know, software gets better.
所以我们把这些设备放到用户家里,让他们实际试用。
And we that's why we put these things in people's homes and try them out.
这并不意味着每个参与测试的客户都喜欢它,但我们不会发布产品,直到我们认为有足够的用户真正喜爱它,能够在真实消费者中找到那些同样认同这一点的人。
It doesn't mean every customer loves it that is beta testing it, but we don't ship it until we think there is enough customers that love it that we can find those customers out in the wild, real consumers, that will also share that conviction.
我每周肯定都会听到一个有趣的故事,因为我们会在测试者之间轮换设备。
And I have an anecdote every week for sure because we rotate units from beta tester to beta tester.
许多测试者会给我或直接发消息给ASTRO团队,说:别把设备拿走。
And many of the beta testers send a note to me or to the directly to the ASTRO team, and they say, Don't take it away.
当然,他们并没有为这个设备付费,所以这并不能保证产品一定会成功,但它是一个很好的信号,表明人们在某些使用场景下真的很喜欢它。
Now, obviously, they didn't pay for the device, so that doesn't guarantee success, but it's a good signal that people love it for certain types of use cases.
但要回答你具体的问题,我不是想回避,我只是想让你了解我们的流程:一旦我们认为外部用户会喜欢它,达到某个阈值后,我们就会立即开始获取这些反馈。
But to answer the specific question, I don't mean to duck it, I just want to give you a sense of how our process once we get over a threshold that we think external people will love it, customers, then we will start getting that feedback instantaneously.
但我们也并不天真。
But we're also not naive.
我读过你的文章。
I read your articles.
我读过其他文章。
I read other articles.
我在推特上,阅读人们对此的评论。
I am on Twitter, and I read what people are saying about it.
但我以乐观的眼光看待这些评论,同时也理解到,现在每个人都是基于有限的信息在工作。
But I look at those comments through an optimistic eye and also understand that everybody right now is working off limited information.
如果我在发布Echo那一周给你看同样的那些推特动态、Reddit帖子和文章,质疑声会铺天盖地。
If I had showed you that exact same group of Twitter feeds, Reddit feeds, articles, the week after we announced Echo, the cynicism would would be dripping.
是的。
Yeah.
那时简直让人难以置信。
It was just it was like, oh my god.
我们怎么可能把一个装着麦克风的薯片罐子放在人们的厨房里?
How could we possibly have this Pringle can with microphones on it in people's kitchens?
亚马逊太疯狂了。
The Amazon's insane.
这注定要失败。
This is destined for failure.
六个月后,他们又推出了下一代Fire Phone。
And it's, like, six months later, here's their next fire phone.
这基本上就是当时的情绪。
That was basically the sentiment.
我记得。
I remember.
我当时非常
And I was very
支持Echo。
pro, Echo.
我不会特意去提它。
I won't point to put it.
嗯,我喜欢这一点。
Well, I I like that.
但那时候还没人拥有它。
That's but nobody had it yet.
当时没人家里有这个设备;如果是那样的话,我可能一年半前就已经在家里用了,但他们根本不知道它会这么令人愉快。
Nobody had had it in their house for in that case, I'd probably had it in a year and a half in my home, and they didn't know how delightful it could be.
顺便说一下,我们发布时它只会做13件事。
By the way, it only did 13 things when we shipped it.
所以,它还有很长的路要走。
So, like, it had a lot of a long a long way to go.
我想稍后再聊聊Echo。
I wanna I wanna talk about Echo in a second.
让我先问最后一个关于Astro的问题。
Let me but let me ask this last question on Astro.
你熟悉我的同事迪特尔·博恩吗?
You're familiar with my colleague Dieter Bohn.
迪特和我每周在我们的另一个节目《The Vergecast》上都会进行无数场哲学辩论。
Dieter and I have a million philosophical debates every week on our other show, the Vergecast.
Astro发布后,我们展开了以下讨论。
After Astro announced, we had the following debate.
什么是机器人?
What is a robot?
因为你曾被引用说过,在足够长的时间线上,每个美国家庭都会拥有一台机器人。
Because you have been quoted as saying on a long enough timeline, every household in America will have a robot in it.
Astro是你开启这一进程的尝试。
Astro is your attempt to begin this process.
坦白说,我觉得Astro很酷。
Candidly, I think Astro is neat.
我喜欢会移动的东西。
I like things that move around.
我喜欢机器人。
I like robots.
我喜欢那些带有笑脸的东西。
I like things with smiley faces on them.
我不知道它有什么实际用途。
I don't know what the utility of it is.
它有什么任务?它没有手臂。
What is the task it's gonna it doesn't have arms.
它在我家里能自动化什么任务,就像我想到的扫地机器人那样?
What is the task it's gonna automate for me in my home the way that I might think of a Roomba?
对吧?
Right?
扫地机器人能自动完成吸尘的任务。
A Roomba automates the task of vacuum cleaning.
你认为 Astro 的具体用途是什么,让它算得上一个机器人?
What do you think the specific utility of of Astro is that makes it a robot?
因为对我来说,这是一个哲学层面的争论。
Because that to me is a is a philosophical debate.
我不会将机器人的定义局限于仅解决家务这类直接问题。我会回答这个问题,但不会把机器人只定义为解决琐事的工具。
I would not limit the definition of robe I will answer the question, but I would not limit the definition of robot to only direct problem solving of a chore.
顺便说一句,那些都是非常优秀的机器人。
Those are very good robots, by the way.
我们的配送中心里充满了机器人,它们让我们的员工更安全、更高效。
Our fulfillment centers are filled to the brim with robots that have made our associates safer and more productive.
我们仍然雇佣大量人员,但那些更单调的任务可以由机器人来承担。
We still hire lots of people, but the more mundane tasks can be picked up by robotics.
所以这些是非常好的应用场景,而吸尘器显然已经成为非常成功的家用机器人。
So those are very good use cases, and a vacuum obviously has been a very successful home robot.
但与此同时,拥有一个陪伴型的伙伴也带来了很多愉悦感。
But there's also just delightfulness of having something around that is a companion too.
我认为,这一点也可以成为优秀机器人的特质。
That, I would also say, could be a quality of a good robot.
我买过每一款推出过的Aibo,那确实是一款机器人,而且非常令人愉快。
I've bought every version of Aibo that's come out, and that is a robot, and it's delightful.
它并不能解决任何问题。
It doesn't solve any problems.
你可能会说,它没有普及是因为它没有做到这一点。
And you could argue it didn't get big because it didn't do that.
这是一个不同的哲学观点。
That's a different philosophical argument.
但它以自己的方式令人愉悦,因为它有个性,诸如此类。
But but it was delightful in its own way because it had personality and that kind of thing.
所以我认为,回到问题的本质,ASTRO 确实能解决一些实际问题。
And so I think what ASTRO, getting back to the root of the question, is it does have some practical things it solves.
我也是那种不在家里每个房间都安装摄像头的人。
I am also one of these persons that does not put a camera in every room of my house.
我家里确实有摄像头,不是那种 Echo Show 的摄像头。
I have a camera inside my house, you know, non Echo Show camera.
我有一台专用的摄像头。
I have I have one dedicated camera.
它在我的应用程序里。
It's on my app.
它叫酒柜摄像头。
It's called Liquor Cabinet Cam.
我有青少年孩子,所以我决定不用不方便的锁和钥匙,而是直接对着我的酒柜安装了一个摄像头,效果出奇地好。
And I I have teenage kids, and I I decided instead of a lock and key, which is inconvenient for me, I just pointed a camera straight down on my liquor cabinet, and it's unbelievably effective.
但除此之外,我得说一下。
But beyond that, I have to say.
每个人都可以从这件事中学到一点。
There's one thing everyone can take away from this.
就是酒柜。
It's liquor cabinet.
没错。
There you go.
那就是说,是的。
That's if yeah.
我最重要的育儿建议。
My salient parent advice.
就在那儿,就在那儿。
There there there it is.
但当我旅行时,我确实很在意安全。
But I do when I travel, I do care about security.
我真的在意。
I really do.
这个产品改变了我的情况,因为它会围绕房子巡逻,执行例行检查,让我感觉更安心。
This product has changed that for me because it does go around the house and it does a routine, and I feel better about that.
这是一种安心感。
It's peace of mind.
所以这是一个绝对的使用场景。
So that is an absolute use case.
另一点我想说的是,让一个摄像头在家中轮式移动,以猫或狗的视角观察,竟然出奇地令人愉悦,而且比我一年前预测的更有用。
The other thing that I would say is moving a camera around your house on wheels at a cat or dog eye view is strangely delightful and more useful than I would have predicted a year ago.
顺便说一下,当我上班时,我会用它去和我的孩子们说话。
By the way, that's go and talk to my kids when I'm at work.
我并没有像你那样经常待在地下室,但你知道的,我现在在办公室。
I haven't been staying in the basement quite as much as maybe you, but you know, so I'm at the office.
我们正在开发一些东西,所以我在这里的时间更多了。
We're building some things, so I've been here more.
也可能是我去查看狗狗们的情况。
It might also be me checking on the dogs.
我在产品发布时就用了这个例子。
It might be, I use that example in the launch.
我使用它的频率比我预想的要高得多。
I use that more than I thought I would.
它对我来说确实有实用价值。
It has utility for me.
还有一些紧急的使用场景,比如你忘了关炉子、忘了关熨斗,诸如此类的事情。
And there's some urgent use cases, which are you left the stove on, you left the iron on, and those kinds of things.
当然,目前我们仅限于一层楼,但这些都是真实的应用场景。
Certainly, we're limited to one floor right now, but those are real use cases.
另一个引起人们共鸣的是我之前提到的,那就是为亲人提供安心感。
And then the other one that has resonated with folks is the one I talked about earlier, which is peace of mind for a loved one.
如果你行动能力稍有下降,但我想和我父亲交谈,我想与他沟通。
If you get slightly less mobile, but you want to talk in my case, I want to talk to my dad, and I want to communicate with him.
机器人可以帮他接电话。
The robot can take the call to him.
机器人还可以四处移动,它配备了这些重力轮子。
The robot can also be around in it it it has, these gravity wheels.
它能判断你在房子中的位置,并在你附近停留。
It figures out where you are in the house and hangs out where you are.
这种设计在某种意义上也让人感到非常安心。
That's also very comforting in a strange way.
但它让我知道,我父亲每天都有起身活动。
But it allows then for me to know that my dad was up and about every day.
因此,这也是一种安心感。
And so that also is peace of mind.
最后,我想说,身边有Alexa确实很有用。
And then finally, I would just say there is something about Alexa near at hand that is also useful.
并非必需。
Not required.
我不会说,你可以把Echo Show放在每个房间里,这样就很好了。
I wouldn't say like, you know, you could put an Echo Show in every room and it's fine.
我家确实已经全面接入了Alexa,它确实有这种独特的优点,但即使你没有,只要Alexa就在身边,随时可以回答诸如‘电视里那个演员是谁’或者‘最近世界发生了什么大事’这类问题,也非常有用。
I do have a house that's very Alexa fied, and it it does it does have that unique quality, but if you don't, Alexa that just is right there and ready to answer the debate over what actor is on the TV at that particular point in time or what what might be going on in in world events is also very useful.
顺便说一下,就像我知道你希望回到Echo的话题,但它也会像Echo一样。
So by the way, it's like I it will be like I know you said you wanna get back to Echo, but it will be like Echo too.
我们一推出产品,就会有人发现我们在测试阶段完全没注意到的功能。
The second we ship it, somebody will figure out something we totally didn't catch in beta.
关于Echo,我经常举的最好例子就是智能家居。
And the best example on Echo that I use a lot is Smart Home.
当我们推出Echo时,它根本不能实现智能家居功能。
When we shipped Echo, it didn't do Smart Home at all.
那人们是怎么让它发挥作用的呢?
And how did people make it work?
他们篡改了我们的待办事项列表。
Well, they hacked our to do list.
他们对亚马逊网站上那个关于Alexa待办事项的页面进行了HTML抓取,然后用它来触发某些操作。
They did an HTML scrape on the to do page that was up on amazon.com slash whatever Alexa to dos, and then they used if to trigger something.
当我们看到这一点时,我们立刻意识到:天哪。
And so as soon as we saw that, we're like, oh, wow.
我们怎么会忽略了智能家居功能呢?
How did we miss Smart Home?
这是一个失误,但我们已经修复了。
That was a mistake, and we fixed it.
我们先休息一下,回来后,戴夫和我会更深入地聊聊Alexa是如何为亚马逊赚钱的。
We're gonna take a break, but when we come back, Dave and I are gonna go a little deeper on Alexa, how it makes money for Amazon.
Decoder 的支持来自 Quo。
Support for Decoder comes from Quo.
对于企业来说,沟通在寻找和留住新客户时至关重要。
If you're a business, communication is key when it comes to finding and keeping new customers.
因此,一旦沟通出现问题,就意味着你的钱在流失。
So when communication breaks down, that means it's money out of your pocket.
QUO,拼写为 q-u-o,是一个企业电话系统,确保你永远不会错过与客户联系的机会。
QUO, spelled q u o, is a business phone system that makes sure you never miss an opportunity to connect with your customers.
Quo 让你可以在一个简洁的界面中查看来电、短信、语音邮件、转录内容和联系人信息。
Quo lets you see calls, texts, voicemails, transcripts, and contact details all in one clean view.
这意味着你的团队沟通更迅速、保持同步,并提供更个性化的体验。
That means your team communicates faster, stays aligned, and delivers a more personal experience.
需要随时随地使用 Quo 吗?
Need Quo on the go?
你可以通过手机或电脑上的应用程序直接使用 Quo,无论你在哪儿都能掌控你的沟通。
You can use Quo right from an app on your phone or computer so you can stay on top of your communications wherever you are.
此外,你的整个团队可以共享一个号码,并像使用共享收件箱一样协作处理来电和短信。
Plus, your whole team can share one number and collaborate on calls and texts like a shared inbox.
Quo AI 会自动记录通话、生成摘要并突出显示后续步骤,确保不会遗漏任何信息。
Quoze AI automatically logs calls, generates summaries, and highlights next steps so nothing gets lost.
它甚至可以筛选潜在客户或在非工作时间回复,确保即使你已下线,业务依然保持响应。
It can even qualify leads or respond after hours, ensuring your business stays responsive even when you're finally offline.
你可以让今年成为不再错过任何机会和任何客户的一年。
You can make this the year where no opportunity and no customer slips away.
你可以免费试用 Quo,访问 quo.com/decoder 还可享受前六个月 20% 的折扣。
You can try Quo for free, plus get 20% off your first six months when you go to quo.com/decoder.
网址是 quo.com/decoder。
That's quo.com/decoder.
Quo。
Quo.
不错过任何来电,不错过任何客户。
No missed calls, no missed customers.
本节目由领英赞助。
Support for this show comes from LinkedIn.
想象一下,如果所有包含‘我需要一个合适的人来做这份工作’这句台词的电影,都妥协为‘随便找个人就行’会怎样?
Imagine if any of the movies that included the line, I need the right person for the job, settled for, I'll just take about anyone.
有多少次劫案会失败?
How many heists would have failed?
有多少笔交易会泡汤?
How many deals would have fallen through?
有多少次秘密特工任务会以灾难收场?
How many secret spy missions would have ended in disaster?
那么,招聘时你为什么还要接受随便什么人呢?
So why would you accept just anyone when hiring for your business?
当你需要为这份工作找到合适的人选时,可以求助领英招聘。
When you need the right person for the job, you can turn to LinkedIn jobs.
现在,领英招聘推出了全新的AI助手,让你更有信心找到那些别处无法寻得的顶尖人才。
And now LinkedIn Jobs is stepping things up with their new AI assistant, so you can feel confident you're finding top talent that you can't find anywhere else.
使用 LinkedIn Jobs 的 AI 助手,你可以跳过繁琐的步骤和招聘术语。
With LinkedIn Jobs AI assistant, you can skip the confusing steps and recruiting jargon.
它会根据你为职位设定的标准筛选求职者,只筛选出最匹配的人选,让你不必在一堆简历中苦苦筛选。
It filters through applicants based on criteria you've set for your role and surfaces only the best matches so you're not stuck sorting through a mountain of resumes.
一次就招对人。
Hire right the first time.
免费在 linkedin.com/partner 发布职位,然后推广职位以使用 LinkedIn Jobs 的新 AI 助手,更轻松快捷地找到顶尖候选人。
Post your job for free at linkedin.com/partner, then promote it to use LinkedIn jobs new AI assistant, making it easier and faster to find top candidates.
免费发布职位,请访问 linkedin.com/partner。
That's linkedin.com/partner to post your job for free.
条款和条件适用。
Terms and conditions apply.
我们回来了。
We're back.
在我们休息之前,我们刚谈到 Echo 和 Alexa。
Before we took a break, we were just start talking about the Echo and Alexa.
Echo显然于2014年发布,这是一个大获成功的概念验证。
The Echo, obviously, was released in 2014, proof of concept that blew up.
你说话,智能助手就会在房间里回答你。
You talk, a smart assistant answers you in the room.
到目前为止,我们都了解Echo是什么。
By this point, we all know what an Echo is.
我们都清楚Alexa是如何工作的。
We all know how Alexa works.
但我对它如何盈利还不是很清楚。
But I'm pretty fuzzy in how it makes money.
所以我问了戴夫。
So I asked Dave.
让我们从智能家居的角度来谈谈Echo。
Let's talk about Echo in the context of smart home.
这是戴夫·伦特的又一个备受期待的过渡。
Another well anticipated segue from Dave Lent.
但Alexa已经从一个科学实验演变为如今无处不在的技术产品。
But Alexa has gone from kind of a science experiment to now this ubiquitous piece of technology.
它拥有全球范围的品牌知名度。
It has worldwide brand recognition.
我所看到的所有研究都表明,人们主要还是用这些语音助手在厨房里设置定时器和播放音乐。
All the research I've seen still says people are mostly using these voice assistants to set timers in the kitchen and play some music.
这两项是绝对领先的使用场景,其他所有用途的使用比例都只有个位数,无论排序如何。
And those are the top two use cases by far and everything else is, you know, single digits in whatever order.
我用它来控制智能家居,但总体使用频率也很低。
I use it for smart home stuff, but single digits whenever.
你的研究显示的是这样吗?
Does your research say?
基本是一样的吗?
Is that basically the same?
有什么不同吗?
Is it different?
是的
Yeah.
不一样。
It's different.
它的长尾效应比你刚才描述的要长得多。
It's a much longer tail than what you just described.
你知道的?
You know?
现在音乐很流行吗?
That now is music popular?
是的
Yeah.
它某种程度上把音乐带回了家里。
It sort of brought music back into the house.
但在Echo和Alexa的幕后,我们今年发布活动时稍微聊过这个话题,那就是‘环境智能’的概念。
But behind the scenes of Echo and Alexa, and we kinda started talking about this a bit at this year's launch event, is this concept of ambient intelligence.
而且,很多人想说,哦,Echo 和 Alexa 是一个操作系统。
And, like, a lot of people wanna go and say, oh, Echo and Alexa is this operating system.
这是一种对基于 Alexa 构建的东西的十九世纪六十年代的观念。
That is a that is a nineteen sixties view of what gets built on Alexa.
这种环境智能看起来更像一种织物,像一种微处理器织物,其中有很多接入点和退出点。
The ambient intelligence looks more like a fabric, like a microprocessor fabric, where there's lots of on ramps and lots of off ramps.
有时 Alexa 会介入其中,有时则不会。
Sometimes Alexa is involved in the middle of that, and sometimes it isn't.
但它正在以一种非常智能的方式,常常在幕后、无感地,路由你家中乃至越来越在车内的各种复杂事务。
But it's kind of routing all this complicated thing that's going on in your home increasingly in your car in a very intelligent way, often behind the scenes ambiently.
所以,这也就是说,是的。
So that's a way of saying that, yes.
人们会设置定时器吗?
Do people set timers?
当然会。
For sure.
人们会用它来听音乐吗?
Do people do music?
当然会。
For sure.
但人们会向Alexa提出数量惊人的各种问题。
But, like, people ask an unbelievably large number of questions to Alexa.
你
Do you
会把Alexa看作是一种通用搜索引擎吗?
think of Alexa as a general search engine in that way?
我不太愿意称它为通用搜索引擎。
I don't think I'd call it a general search engine.
它更像是一种环境搜索引擎,因为通用搜索引擎通常是你主动搜索某个特定目标。
It's not it's it's an ambient search engine in that a general search engine, you're often spearfishing for a specific end goal.
人们向Alexa提问的,往往是那些当时最在脑海中、就在身边的事情。
The things that people tend to ask Alexa are the things that are top of mind and right around you at that moment.
它可能只是帮助完成作业的快速解答,或者是一个简单的事实查询,又或者是想知道电视节目中那个人是谁。
It might be just a quick help on homework, or it might be a quick fact, or it might be who is that person on the TV show.
我认为,随着时间推移,它会逐渐演变成更像这种搜索方式。
It's very I think over time, it will evolve to more search like that.
但今天,手机在这方面已经相当不错了。
But today, you know, the phone's pretty good at that.
因此,它需要一种完全不同的搜索形式。
And so it it takes a whole different form of search.
但我只想说,问答功能真的非常重要。
But I would just say that that Q and A is really important.
智能家居的规模比你想象的要大得多。
Smart home's bigger than you would give it credit for.
这不仅仅是你一个人的事。
It's not just you.
现在你可能已经更深入地迈入了智能家居的门槛,而我们还有很多工作要做,让客户更容易使用。
Now you probably are more advanced down the threshold of making your home smart, and we have a lot of work there to make it easier for customers.
但只拥有一两个智能插座或灯泡的人数非常多。
But the number of people that just have one smart plug or one light bulb is very high.
每周都有数十亿次与Alexa的互动,而音乐并不构成这一数字的主体。
And every single week, there are billions of interactions with Alexa, and music does not make up that that number.
Alexa是如何盈利的?
How does Alexa make money?
嗯,它已经在一些领域开始盈利了。
Well, there's places it's already making money.
顺便说一句,这不仅对我们有利,对其他人也是如此。
And by the way, not only for us, but for, you know, others.
我们之前提到过音乐,你知道,音乐早就存在了。
And we've mentioned music and, you know, music was around.
流媒体音乐早就存在了,但它基本上已经迁移到了你的手机上。
Streaming music was around, but it it it had migrated to your phone, basically.
每个人都像这样戴着耳机,我现在也在戴耳机,以方便进行这个播客,但音乐体验已经发展到一种一对一的状态。
Everybody had headphones in like this, which I'm doing right now to, you know, facilitate this podcast, but it's a function of the music experience had gotten to a point where it was one on one.
发生的情况是,Alexa以及如今的智能音箱整体,将音乐体验转变为一种可以在家中与家人朋友共享的环境式体验,这使得家庭场景中的音乐使用量大幅增长了数倍,不仅限于亚马逊音乐,还包括Spotify、Apple Music等平台。
What happened is Alexa, and now smart speakers in general, has moved that to an ambient experience that you can share with your family and friends in in the house, and that has increased home usage of music many, many fold, and not just for Amazon Music, but for Spotify and Apple Music, etcetera.
这些服务都在盈利,当然,亚马逊音乐也从中受益。
And they're making all of those are making money, including, by the way, Amazon Music benefited from that.
同样,听有声读物也是这样,我们有一个这样的服务,叫做Audible。
Similarly, listening to audiobooks, which we have a service like that, which is Audible.
很多人听有声读物,我们也能从中赚钱。
A lot of people listen to audiobooks, and we we can make we can make money on that.
我们提到了智能家居。
We mentioned smart home.
智能家居的使用量增长了数百倍。
Smart home is up hundreds and hundreds of percent.
你可以看看我们推出智能家居功能时,Alexa上的智能家居功能以及智能设备的销售情况。
You can just look at when we launched our smart home domain, the the functionality of smart home on Alexa and track smart home device sales.
我们在亚马逊上追踪这些数据,但我们的份额只是整体销量的一小部分,是的。
We look at it on Amazon, but we're a fraction of the overall sales Yeah.
但让我问你一个问题。
But let me ask you this.
我拥有一个Alexa设备和一个Echo Show。
So I own Alexa device and an Echo Show.
是的。
Yep.
比如,我有一个飞利浦Hue灯泡。
I've got a Philips Hue bulb, for example.
我一次性支付了Alexa设备的费用。
I pay you once for your Alexa device.
我一次性支付了Hue灯泡的费用。
I pay Philips once for the Hue bulb.
我说:打开灯。
I say turn on the light.
当我让灯打开时,你并不会因此赚钱。
You don't make any money when I say turn on the light.
钱已经赚到了,你现在只是承担运行所有云服务和Alexa环境架构的成本。
You've the money's already made, and you're just incurring the cost of running all the cloud services and the Alexa ambient fabric.
你们从Alexa哪里获得直接收入?
Where are you generating direct revenue from Alexa?
我提到了音乐。
Well, I mentioned music.
所以每次我说播放一首歌,亚马逊的Alexa部门就能赚钱?
So every time I say play a song, the Alexa division of Amazon gets money?
亚马逊音乐确实能赚钱,但我们也得为此分一杯羹。
Well, Amazon Music gets money, but we get you know, we'll take equal credit for that.
我们会分到一部分。
We get some of that.
Spotify和其他平台也能分到不少。
Spotify Spotify gets a bunch of that and others do.
但以智能灯泡为例,我想把这个例子说清楚:你第一次购买智能灯泡时,希望是从亚马逊买的,但也可能是在沃尔玛买的。
But using the smart bulb example, because I think I I wanna play that one through, which is you buy that first smart bulb, hopefully from Amazon, but you might buy it from Walmart.
但之后你很可能会再买五个智能灯泡,然后这些灯泡用久了会坏掉,你需要陆续更换新的。
But then you're gonna likely buy five more smart bulbs, and then those will burn out, you'll need new ones of those over time.
随着时间推移,你可能会逐渐转向其他由Alexa控制的产品,因为这已经成了你的新常态,而且你会不断扩展这种使用范围。
And over time, you might then migrate into something else that that is Alexa controlled because you that's become, you know, your new normal, and and you expand that.
但我们不会从每一笔这样的销售中都赚到钱。
And we're not gonna get every one of those sales on Amazon.
对吧?
Right?
但每次你在亚马逊购买灯泡时,我们都会赚一些钱。
But every time you buy a bulb on Amazon, we make we make some money.
顺便说一句,如果你从沃尔玛购买,沃尔玛也应该赚钱。
By the way, Walmart should make money if you buy from them too.
我对这个没什么意见。
I'm I'm fine with that.
这没问题。
That's okay.
我只是想以我能想到的最直接的方式,把收入直接归因于Alexa。
I'm just trying to I'm just trying to assign direct revenue to Alexa in, like, the most basic way I can think of.
好吧。
So okay.
这说得通。
That makes sense.
Alexa让我更愿意购买更多的智能家电和智能设备。
Alexa inspires me to buy more smart appliances, smart devices.
我给你一个更直接的例子。
I'll give you a more direct example.
我们把Ring和Echo更好地整合在一起。
We make it better Ring and Echo together.
顺便说一下,我们对Arlo和其他品牌也是这么做的。
By the way, we do that for Arlo and others too.
现在你可能会选择订阅Ring服务,每月3美元。
And now you might choose to take a Ring subscription, which is $3 a month.
也许你只是纠结于收入直接流向哪里,但至少这些收入会汇总到两个部门,再归到我这里。
And maybe you're just getting hung up on where the revenue flows directly, but then that that at least rolls up into two divisions that roll into me.
当然。
Sure.
我只是
I just
那你觉得怎么样?
So how about that?
我也认同这一点。
I buy that too.
我只是在拿这个和其他大型平台供应商做比较。
I just I'm comparing that to other gigantic platform vendors.
我跟很多其他节目中的高管和创作者聊过,他们都非常清楚平台是如何从他们身上抽取租金的。
I talked to a lot of other executives and creators in the show who are deeply aware of where the platform extracts rents from them.
对吧?
Right?
所以你是Twitter,你想做Twitter订阅,但苹果会抽取每笔应用内购买的30%。
So you are Twitter, you wanna do Twitter subscriptions, Apple's gonna take 30% of every in app purchase.
这已经引发了诉讼和愤怒的监管机构,整个事情就是这样。
This has led to lawsuits and angry regulators, the whole thing.
目前,Alexa平台上并没有发生类似的情况。
None of that is occurring on the Alexa platform at this moment in time.
我在想,你有没有考虑过这个问题?
And I I'm wondering, is that a thing that you think about?
这一切都是为了支持亚马逊的其他部门,比如音乐和零售商店吗?
Is it all there to support Amazon's other divisions like music and the retail store?
还是说你们打算在上面投放广告?
Or is it we're gonna run ads on it?
这样的未来会是什么样子?还是说根本不需要直接收入,因为亚马逊已经足够庞大?
What does that future look like, or does it never need that direct revenue because Amazon is so vast?
不用。
No.
不是后者。
It's not the latter.
我的意思是,我们显然是家营利性公司,我们希望赚钱,为股东创造价值,同时让客户满意。
I mean, you we're obviously a for profit company, and we we wanna make we wanna make wanna make money and return value to our shareholders while delighting customers.
这才是最重要的。
Like, that's the most important thing.
但很容易回头去看其他平台——我甚至都不太把Alexa当作一个平台,但就像你描述的那些其他平台。
But it's easy to look backwards at other I don't really even think of Alexa as a platform, but other platforms as you described it.
它们往往需要很长时间才能找到并稳定下来自己的商业模式。
It took it often takes them a long time to find what that settle out that business model.
你知道的。
You know?
据我回忆,第一代iPhone并没有应用商店。
The first iPhone, best to my recollection, did not have an App Store on it.
说得有道理。
Fair enough.
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