人工智能行业对利润的生存竞争

本周《净资产与放松》节目，我们邀请到了科迪·桑切斯，一位从华尔街老兵转型为商业收购专家的人物，他正在教导普通人如何通过主街而非股市来积累财富。

This week on Net Worth and Chill, we're joined by Cody Sanchez, a Wall Street veteran turned business acquisition expert who's teaching everyday people how to build wealth through Main Street, not just the stock market.

在金融行业工作十五年后，科迪创立了《逆向思维》，这是一个多平台媒体帝国，旨在为普通投资者而非仅限于超级富豪揭开并购的神秘面纱。

After fifteen years in finance, Cody founded Contrarian Thinking, a multiplatform media empire that's demystifying mergers and acquisitions for regular investors, not just the ultra wealthy.

准备好进行一场坦诚直率的对话吧，内容涉及金融素养、业务增长，以及如何停止用时间换取金钱。

Get ready for an unfiltered conversation about financial literacy, growing your business, and how to stop trading time for money.

请在您收听播客的任何平台收听，或在 youtube.com/yourrichbff 观看视频。

Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch on youtube.com/yourrichbff.

你好，欢迎来到《解码器》。

Hello, and welcome to Decoder.

我是尼尔·帕特尔，《连线》杂志的主编，《解码器》是我探讨重大理念与其他问题的节目。

I'm Neil Patel, editor in chief of The Verge, and Decoder is my show about big ideas and other problems.

今天，我们来谈谈即将来临的AI变现悬崖，以及该领域一些最大公司能否在跌落悬崖之前真正实现盈利。

Today, let's talk about the looming AI monetization cliff and whether some of the biggest companies in the space can become real profitable businesses before they careen right off it.

今天我们的嘉宾是海登·菲尔德，她是《连线》杂志的资深AI记者。

My guest today is Hayden Field, who's our senior AI reporter here at The Verge.

她一直密切关注着Anthropic和OpenAI，这两家公司尤其能告诉我们2026年AI行业的全貌。

She's been keeping close tabs on both Anthropic and OpenAI, and how those two companies in particular tell us a whole lot about the AI industry as a whole in 2026.

你肯定已经听过关于盈利悬崖的版本了。

You've certainly heard a version of the monetization cliff story before.

Anthropic、OpenAI以及所有其他大型AI初创公司都是建立在数千亿美元资本投资的基础之上的。

Anthropic, OpenAI, and all the other big AI startups are built off the back of hundreds of billions in capital investment.

它们还关联着更大规模的前瞻性投资，用于数据中心建设、芯片及其他基础设施支出。

And they're linked to even greater amounts of forward looking investment in data center build out, chips, and other infrastructure spend.

终有一天，这些投入必须获得回报。

At some point, that return has to pay off.

利润必须实现，否则泡沫就会破裂。

The profits have to materialize or the bubble pops.

也许通用人工智能会到来，也许经济会崩溃，谁知道呢。

Maybe AGI arrives, maybe the economy crashes, who knows.

如果你一直在听《The Code》，你应该听过我在这档节目中多次与多位CEO讨论过这个问题，其中大多数人都暗示泡沫即将破裂。

If you've been listening to The Code, you've heard me talk about this with tons of CEOs right here on the show and a majority of them have hinted towards the bubble popping.

他们认为一些公司会以惊人的方式失败，而另一些则会成功，但机遇尤其是资金规模太大，不容忽视。

They think some companies will fail in spectacular fashion and others will succeed but that the opportunities and especially the money are simply too big to ignore.

人工智能行业一定会这么做

The AI industry is gonna do this

无论我们是否愿意。

whether we want it to or not.

市场依赖于它。

The market depends on it.

因此，过去几周感觉像是一个非常重要的转折点，因为Anthropic和OpenAI都开始应对必须上市盈利的现实。

And so these last few weeks have felt like a very important inflection point as both Anthropic and OpenAI have started to react to the reality of needing to go public to make money.

推动这一切变化的催化剂是AI代理的兴起，比如Claude Code和CoWork、开源的OpenClaw，以及OpenAI的Codex。

The catalyst for all this change is the rise of AI agents, products like Claude Code and co work, the open source OpenClaw, and OpenAI's codex.

它们彻底改变了这些公司对自身资源的思考方式。

They've all radically changed how these companies are thinking about their resources.

而这已经开始影响它们的行为。

And that's starting to affect how they behave.

它们支持或突然放弃的产品，对客户施加的限制，以及为达成你下一个重要里程碑而愿意烧掉的资金。

The products they support or suddenly kill, the restrictions they impose on customers, and the money they're willing to burn on the way towards your next big milestone.

这是因为目前代理对客户来说很有价值，但代理也消耗更多的计算资源。

That's because agents are valuable to customers right now, but agents also use far more compute.

因此，人们使用代理的方式导致令牌消耗速度远超这些公司的预期。

And so the way people are using agents is burning tokens at a rate way faster than these companies anticipated.

这迫使它们做出艰难的决定。

That's causing them to make hard decisions.

我们上个月就清楚地看到了这一点：OpenAI突然终止了其视频生成应用Sora，并因此放弃了与迪士尼价值10亿美元的合作。

We saw this most evidently last month when OpenAI abruptly killed its video generation app Sora, ditching a $1,000,000,000 Disney deal in the process.

为什么？

Why?

因为运行它成本太高，而OpenAI需要将计算资源用于编码器。

Well, it costs too much to run and OpenAI needs the compute for codecs.

就在上周，我们再次看到这种情况：Anthropic决定不再允许Claude用户通过标准订阅计划使用OpenClaw代理框架消耗计算资源。

And we saw it again just last week when Anthropic decided it would no longer let Claude users burn through compute resources using the OpenClaw agent framework through a standard subscription plan.

相反，他们迫使这些用户转为按使用量付费的计划，费用要高得多。

Instead forcing those users onto a pay as you go plan, which costs substantially more.

正如你将听到海登解释的那样，这些举措并不是AI行业生死攸关的征兆，因为Anthropic和OpenAI正朝着历史上规模最大的两次IPO迈进。

As you'll hear Hayden explain, these aren't glimmers of a make or break moment for the AI industry as both Anthropic and OpenAI barrel towards two of the biggest IPOs in history.

这些公司赚钱的压力从未如此之大。

And the pressure on these companies to make money has never been this intense.

这些公司做出的预测，就在本周刚刚泄露给《华尔街日报》，描绘了一个令人难以置信的增长前景：到本十年末，收入和利润将达到数千亿美元的规模。

The projection these companies have made, which just this week leaked The Wall Street Journal, tell a story of mind boggling growth to the tune of hundreds of billions in revenue and profitability by the end of the decade.

但如今最重要的问题是：这些公司能否实现这一切？

But the most important questions now are can these companies pull all this off?

为了达成目标并避免失败，它们将做出哪些妥协？

And what compromises will they make to reach that goal and avoid crashing and burning?

在开始之前，快速提醒一下：您可以通过订阅The Verge，完全无广告地收听本集或《Decoder》的任何一集。

Before we start, a quick reminder that you can listen to this episode or any episode of Decoder completely ad free by subscribing to The Verge.

请前往theverge.com/subscribe。

Just go to theverge.com/subscribe.

好的。

Okay.

《The Verge》高级政策记者海登·菲尔德，关于人工智能变现的盈利悬崖。

The Verge senior policy reporter Hayden Field, the AI monetization cliff in the race to profitability.

我们开始吧。

Here we go.

海登·菲尔德，这里是《The Verge》的高级人工智能记者。

Hayden Field, your senior AI reporter here at The Verge.

欢迎回到《Decoder》。

Welcome back to Decoder.

谢谢。

Thanks.

很高兴来到这里。

It's great to be here.

我很期待和你交谈。

I'm excited to talk to you.

最近人工智能领域发生了许多事情。

There's a lot going on in AI world recently.

感觉我们正处在这个行业非常重要的转折点上。

It feels like we are at a very important inflection point for this industry.

你现在怎么想？

What are you thinking right now?

是的，我们确实正处于这样的时刻。

Yeah, we absolutely are.

某种程度上，现在是该付账的时候了，你知道的，他们多年来一直在筹集大量资金，制造大量炒作。

It's kind of like time to pay the piper in a way, you know, they've been raising a ton of money, raising a ton of hype for years.

而现在，随着企业准备上市，竞争比以往任何时候都更加激烈，它们正进入各种不同领域，尝试各种旁支项目，终于到了直面现实的时候了——看看它们到底能赚多少钱。同时，它们也面临着前所未有的压力。

And now, you know, as companies prepare to go public, and the competition is heating up more than ever, and they're kind of entering all these different sectors, and trying different side quests, it's finally time to really like face the music and see how much money they can really make, and there's never been more pressure on them also.

当你说到‘他们’时，我想把焦点集中在OpenAI和Anthropic上，它们似乎走上了不同的发展路径。

When you say them, I wanna stay focused on OpenAI and Anthropic, which seem to be on different trajectories.

当然，还有其他大型人工智能公司参与其中。

Now there are obviously other big AI companies in the mix.

谷歌已经存在了，它会做谷歌一贯做的事，但谷歌已经有了庞大的业务。

Google exists, it's gonna do whatever Google does, but Google has a big business already.

它可以补贴寻找AI产品的市场契合度。

It can subsidize finding product market fit with AI.

它可以补贴TPU的效率提升。

It can subsidize making efficiency improvements on TPUs.

这与OpenAI和Anthropic有着本质的不同，它们必须成为真正的公司。

It's just very different from in particular OpenAI and Anthropic, which have to become companies.

它们必须成长为真正的公司，特别是如果它们打算上市，拥有股东，就必须展示盈亏和其他各种财务指标。

Like they have to graduate into becoming companies, particularly if they're gonna go public and then they're gonna have shareholders, they're gonna have to show profit and loss and all this other stuff.

你能描述一下OpenAI和Anthropic目前的状况以及它们可能的发展方向吗？

Can you just describe how OpenAI and Anthropic are currently situated and where they might be going?

当然可以。

Sure.

所以，是的，有意思的是，从某些方面看，它们的处境是一样的。

So yeah, I mean, it's interesting because in some ways they're in the same position.

据称，它们今年都在准备上市，并且彼此竞争谁先完成。

They're both preparing to go public this year reportedly, and kind of racing each other to do that.

它们都在不断筹集大量资金和制造热度。

And they're both constantly raising a ton of money and hype.

但它们的不同之处在于，OpenAI 传统上非常注重面向消费者的产品，同时也涉足企业和政府领域，但它们的重点几乎完全，甚至更偏向于消费者市场。

But where they differ is of course, OpenAI has traditionally been really courting the consumer facing stuff, and some enterprise and government, but they've really been focused equally, if not way more so on consumer.

Anthropic 一直专注于企业市场，并且始终保持着这一专注方向。

Anthropic has always been pretty focused on enterprise, and they have remained pretty steady on that focus.

所以，它们不太会去做那些旁支项目，也不会推出太多其他实验或计划，而是专注于企业目标和企业客户。

So, you know, they're not really doing as many side quests, they're not, you know, rolling out as many other experiments or projects, they're just kind of laser focused on their enterprise goals and their enterprise clients.

它们只是这么做吗？

Are they only doing that?

不，有时候它们似乎会感到错失恐惧症，比如推出 Claude 用于医疗、Claude 用于教育之类的项目。

No, sometimes they kind of, it seems like get FOMO and they're like going into Claude for healthcare and Claude for education, things like that.

但这并没有完全偏离它们的企业目标，因为正如我们所知，医疗组织和教育系统本身也是企业。

But it doesn't totally remove them from their goals of enterprise because that's pretty focused on healthcare organizations or education systems are enterprises too, as we know.

所以他们真的非常专注于这一点。

So they're really laser focused on this.

他们在某种程度上有着‘房间里最成熟的人’的声誉，因为他们不会被风向轻易左右。

They kind of have the reputation of being the adult in the room in some ways because they're not as perceived as, like, going wherever the wind blows them.

他们似乎沿着一条明确的轨迹前进，并且保持非常稳定。

They're kind of on one trajectory and they're staying really steady, it seems like.

而OpenAI则被认为在内部和外部频繁改变重点。

Whereas OpenAI kinda has the reputation of, changing their focus a bunch internally and externally.

人们说，他们就像在进行大量支线任务，不断尝试各种东西，把大量意大利面扔到墙上，看看哪些能粘住——消费端、企业端、政府端，什么都试。

People have said this, it's like going on a ton of side quests, trying things, throwing a ton of spaghetti at the wall, consumer, enterprise, government, everything, just seeing what works.

就连萨姆·阿尔特曼本人也把OpenAI描述为内部投资了大量初创项目，然后静观哪个能脱颖而出。

And even Sam Wohlman himself has described OpenAI as kind of like betting on a ton of startups internally and just kind of seeing which one pulls ahead.

但现在他们终于不得不意识到：也许现在是时候专注于最具盈利潜力的业务，降低其他项目的优先级，砍掉它们，以便集中精力与Anthropic竞争，专注于编程和企业领域。

But now they're finally having to realize, hey, maybe it's time to focus on the most money making endeavors here and deprioritize some of these other projects, kill them off so we can just kind of compete with Anthropic and focus on coding and enterprise.

是的，这让我想到本周的一条新闻，它让我真切感受到，我们正处在一个转折点上。

Yeah, I think that brings me to the news this week that really made me feel like, we're at an inflection point.

而Anthropic开始提高使用OpenClaw等工具的用户的费率。

And that is Anthropic started raising its rates for people using tools like OpenClaw.

他们真的希望你使用他们的订阅计划和他们的定价方式来使用他们的工具。

They really want you in their system on their subscription plans using the tools and their pricing their way.

如果你想用Claude来驱动OpenClaw等其他系统，你就得支付另一种费率结构，这让我觉得他们根本不想让你这么做。

And if you want to use Claude to power other systems like OpenClaw, you're gonna have to pay in a different rate structure that to me feels like they don't want you to do it at all.

紧接着，OpenAI取消了Sora项目——那是他们备受关注的视频生成产品，本质上是一个深度伪造的噩梦，但他们还曾与迪士尼达成了一项十亿美元的协议，这一直让人感到困惑，而他们也取消了这项协议。

And then next to that OpenAI killed Sora, was their very buzzy video generation product that was basically a deep fake nightmare, but they also had a deal with Disney for a billion dollars, which always seemed confusing, but they canceled that deal too.

我们先从OpenAI说起。

Let's start with OpenAI.

你说他们正在终止所有这些旁支项目。

You're saying they're killing off all these side projects.

他们正试图专注于编码，这本质上是企业软件。

They're trying to focus on codecs, which is fundamentally enterprise software.

对吧？

Right?

这是软件开发者开发软件的本职工作。

It is a for software developers to make software.

他们为什么取消了Sora？这种专注感是从何而来的？

Why did they kill Sora and where did this sense of focus come from?

我认为这种专注感其实源于竞争，以及他们面临前所未有的营收压力。

I think the sense of focus honestly just comes from the competition and the fact that pressure is building on them to generate more revenue than ever.

在公司历史上，他们从未受到如此多的关注，因为他们在准备上市，而且刚刚筹集了数十亿美元的资金。

They've never had more eyes on them in their balance sheet and their whole company history because they're preparing to go public and because they had just raised so many billions of dollars.

他们目前的投后估值高达8520亿美元，所以投资者会问：好吧，你们的计划到底是什么？

Their post money valuation right now is $852,000,000,000 So yeah, I mean, investors are saying, okay, like what's the plan here?

你们的回报计划是什么？

What's the plan returning our money?

为了兑现这些承诺，他们不得不将时间、资金和人力都投入到最能盈利的项目上，同时也必须集中计算资源。

So in order to deliver on those promises, they are having to not only devote their time and money and staff to the projects that are going to make the most money, but also their compute.

这就是我们在OpenAI取消Sora时，看到其高管们所谈论的内容。

So that's something that we saw execs at OpenAI talk about, when they killed Sora.

我们看到几份内部备忘录发了出来。

We saw a couple internal memos go out.

其中一份来自AGI部署公司的首席执行官菲吉·西莫。

One of them was from Fidji Simo, the, CEO of AGI Deployment.

她说，公司需要停止关注旁支项目，全力投入企业服务和编程领域。

And she said that basically the company needed to stop focusing on side quests and just really dive fully into enterprise and coding.

是的，我的意思是，计算资源非常有限。

And yeah, I mean, compute is super limited.

OpenAI 总是不断谈论他们缺乏足够的计算资源来实现目标或适当扩展。

OpenAI is always, always talking about how they don't have enough compute to fulfill what they wanna do or to scale appropriately.

萨姆·阿尔特曼在十月的开发者大会和旧金山活动中对记者说，我从未见过他如此焦虑，他谈到计算限制如何阻碍他们适当扩展，以及除非能设法获得更多计算资源，否则他们无法满足客户的需求。

Sam Altman at Dev Day and SF in October said to reporters, I've just never seen him so stressed when he was talking about this, how the compute constraints were stopping them from scaling appropriately and how they couldn't really deliver what clients wanted unless they just could somehow get their hands on more compute.

我从未见过他如此焦虑。

I've never seen him more stressed out.

所以，几个月后的今天，这种情况正在上演。

And so, that's, you know, playing out now months later.

Sora 占用了大量计算资源，但回报却非常有限。

Sora took up a bunch of compute and there wasn't really a big return there.

因此，他们突然决定取消该项目——据说是在与迪士尼就相关项目合作仅三十分钟后，就毫无预告地直接叫停了。

And so they abruptly decided to cancel it apparently thirty minutes after working with Disney on a related project and then just suddenly pulled the plug with no notice.

所以，那边的情况看起来似乎正在失控。

So, you know, things over there it seemed like are in kind of a tailspin.

如果你在和迪士尼这样的大公司谈完项目进展顺利后的三十分钟就突然取消合作，那肯定存在一些严重的问题。

It's like if you're pulling the plug on a project with a huge company like Disney, thirty minutes after talking to them about, like, how it was going great, there's some some real, some real issues there.

我想再回到 OpenAI 的管理层，自从你上次做客 Decoder 节目以来，整个管理层几乎已经全面更替，战略重点也发生了变化。

I wanna come back to OpenAI, its management, which has all but turned over since the last time you were on Decoder and it's sort of strategic focus.

但真正让我感到惊讶的是对计算资源的需求：一年前或一年半前你上节目时，所有的计算资源都用于模型训练。

But what really strikes me about the need for compute is, I don't know, when you were on the show a year ago or a year and a half ago, all of that compute was pointed at training.

我们要打造更大的模型，它们会更强大，GPT95 会问世，成为数字救世主之类的。

We got to make bigger models, they're going to be more capable, GPT95 will come out and it'll be digital Jesus or like whatever it was.

当时的思路是，我们需要更大的模型和更多数据，而所需的计算规模将帮助我们实现更强大的模型，并最终走向 AGI。

And the idea was that we needed bigger models with more data and the compute, the scale of compute necessary was gonna get us to the capable models and AGI in some way.

现在看来，计算资源全都用于推理了。

Now it seems like the compute is all for inference.

有很多人想用这些工具，尤其是在软件开发领域。

There's people that want to do things with these tools, particularly in software development.

如果我们不增加计算资源来满足需求，就会被甩在后面，因为我们的主要竞争对手正等着把所有客户都抢走。

If And we don't scale up the compute to meet the demand, we'll get left out in the cold because our big rival is sitting right there waiting to scoop up all those customers.

有没有人明确指出过这种转变：我们已经从过去全部聚焦于模型训练和能力提升，转向了模型已经足够好、人人都想使用它们，因此需要海量计算资源来进行推理？

Has anyone pointed that shift out explicitly that we've gone from all of the focus on training and capability in the model to the models are pretty good, everyone wants to use them, we need massive amounts of compute for inference.

这周泄露的OpenAI和Anthropic投资者数据中，有许多令人震惊的图表，显示了他们的资金和利润（或亏损）中有多少被用于推理和训练。

So in the numbers that leaked from investors in OpenAI and Anthropic this week, there are a ton of crazy charts showing just how much of their money and profit is going or lack of profit is going towards, inference, training.

他们对这些类别的划分方式非常有趣。

The way they break out these categories is just really interesting.

这些数据并不总是直接可比，但Anthropic在模型训练上的支出预计只有OpenAI的三分之一到四分之一，而OpenAI的收入预计在2030年将达到2750亿美元，Anthropic却称其收入将在2029年达到1500亿美元。

It's not always apples to apples, but it's like Anthropic is going to spend one third to one quarter on model training compared to OpenAI, but OpenAI's revenue is expected to hit like 275,000,000,000 in 2030, but Anthropic says its revenue will hit 150,000,000,000 in 2029.

所以，Anthropic似乎在与OpenAI相同的领域投入了少得多的资金，增长也更缓慢。

So it's kind of like Anthropic seems to be spending a lot less, on the same categories as OpenAI and growing slower.

但OpenAI正在大笔投入，只是希望这能带来投资回报，这与过去几年企业运营的方式颇为一致。

But OpenAI is spending a ton and then just hoping that's gonna lead to a return on investment, which kind of tracks with the way that companies have been operating for the past couple of years.

是的。

Yeah.

Anthropic似乎慢得多，也更专注，总是担心每一个新模型都会毁灭全人类。

Anthropic seems to be much slower and more focused and constantly worried that it's gonna kill everyone in the world with every successive model.

OpenAI则是一直全速前进。

OpenAI is just pedal the metal all the time.

没错。

Yep.

但Anthropic并没有足够担心会因此停下脚步，因为它们

But Anthropic isn't worried enough that it'll stop because they

刚刚取消了他们的前沿安全承诺，表示：哦，实际上，即使我们认为有点危险，我们也要保持竞争力。

just took, out their Frontier safety pledge and said, oh, actually, we're gonna stay competitive even if we think it's a little dangerous.

抱歉。

Sorry.

上市竞赛让很多人重新思考了他们的许多价值观，显然如此。

The the race to an IPO makes a lot of people rethink a lot of their values, apparently.

我们需要短暂休息一下。

We need to take a quick break.

马上回来。

We'll be right back.

你好。

Hi.

我是布琳·布朗。

I'm Brene Brown.

我是亚当·格兰特。

And I'm Adam Grant.

我们在这里邀请你来参加《好奇心商店》。

And we're here to invite you to The Curiosity Shop.

这是一个鼓励倾听、好奇、思考、感受与质疑的播客。

A podcast that's a place for listening, wondering, thinking, feeling, and questioning.

这会很有趣。

It's gonna be fun.

我们很少意见一致。

We rarely agree.

但我们几乎从不争吵，而且总是在学习。

But we almost never disagree, and we're always learning.

没错。

That's true.

你可以在YouTube上订阅《好奇心商店》，或在您最喜欢的播客应用中关注我们，每周四自动接收新 episodes。

You can subscribe to The Curiosity Shop on YouTube or follow in your favorite podcast app to automatically receive new episodes every Thursday.

我们回来了，今天邀请《The Verge》的高级AI记者海登·菲尔德，来聊聊Anthropic和AI争夺盈利的竞赛。

We're back with The Verge's senior AI reporter Hayden Field to talk about Anthropic and AI's race to profitability.

还有另一条新闻，对吧？这又是关于定价和计算使用的问题。

The other piece of news, right, this is again pricing, compute usage.

Anthropic改变了其定价结构，使得使用Claude与OpenClaw在多个方面变得昂贵得多。

Anthropic changed its pricing structure to make using Claude with OpenClaw much more expensive in different ways.

所以，如果你有Claude Pro或Max订阅，你不能只是把它连接到OpenClaw就直接使用，你还得在订阅之外购买令牌。

So if you have a Claude Pro or Max subscription, you can't just hook it up to OpenClaw and Go, you've got to buy tokens on top of that subscription.

在某些方面，这似乎是不可避免的，但在其他方面，显然让很多人非常不满。

That in some ways felt inevitable, in other ways obviously made a lot of people very upset.

这让OpenClaw的开发者感到不满。

It made the developers of OpenClaw upset.

他们表示，他们只能将决定推迟一周。

They said they could only delay the decision by a week.

那里到底发生了什么？

What's going on there?

今天早上我跟一位经济学家聊了这件事，他说代理模型已经彻底改变了这一切。

So when I talked to an economist about this this morning, he said that agents have just changed everything.

我又跟几位科技领袖谈了这件事，他们说代理模型消耗的令牌数量比基础聊天模型多了数十万倍。

And I talked to another couple of tech leaders about this and they said agents are consuming hundreds of thousands more tokens than basic chat models have been.

所以，即使这让人感到沮丧，但也是有道理的，因为Anthropic的说法是：我们的基础设施并不是为此设计的，我们没有预料到这种情况。

So it does make sense even if it's frustrating because it seems like the way Anthropic put it was, hey, our infrastructure isn't built for this, we didn't plan for this.

而且，我的意思是，你用 OpenClaw 配合 Claude，本质上就是让一个代理代表你向 Claude 发送提示，并将这些提示返回给 Claude，不断说‘别这样，要那样’。

And yeah, I mean, you're using OpenClaw with Claude, obviously you basically have an agent on your behalf prompting Claude for you and delivering those prompts back to Claude and saying no do this, no do this.

所以这远远超过人类能完成的量。

So it's way more than a human would be able to do.

Anthropic 的观点是，嘿，我们目前只真正为人类直接向 Claude 发送提示而设计，除非是用于我们自己的产品。

And Anthropic's point was, hey, we only really built this for humans to be able to prompt Claude right now unless it's for our own products.

很明显，这是一次圈钱行为。

Obviously, it's a money grab.

当然，他们不希望第三方工具做着和他们自己产品相同的事情。

Of course, they don't want a third party tool, doing the same stuff that they want their own.

没错。

Right.

他们希望人们使用 co work。

They want people using co work.

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

Of course.

所以，他们本质上只是想保持一个封闭的花园。

So it's like, basically, they just wanna keep it like a walled garden.

他们想打造一道护城河。

They want it to be a moat.

目前，AI公司唯一的优势就是试图让用户保持参与，并将他们留在自己的平台上，建立某种护城河，因为否则的话，每个人都喜欢根据每天或每周哪个模型最好而频繁切换。

That's kind of the only advantage that, AI companies have right now is just trying to keep their users engaged and keep them on their own platform, build a moat of some sort because otherwise, everyone loves to switch between whatever model is the best that day, that week.

所以，这确实是Anthropic在试图加深它的护城河。而且你知道，现在算力处处受限，他们根本不想让第三方工具比人类多得多地去调用Claude。

So yeah, this is just Anthropic looking to deepen its moat And also, you know, it compute is constrained everywhere, so they don't really want a third party tool prompting Claude way, way, way, way, way more than a human would be able to.

他们似乎并不介意当Co-Work在进行提示时的情况。

They don't seem to mind when it's co work doing the prompting.

对。

Right.

因为你身处Claude的生态系统内，他们就能以任何他们想到的方式对你进行变现。

Because you're inside of Claude and then they can monetize you in whatever ways that they come up with to monetize you.

没错。

Exactly.

如果可能的话，他们想从中盈利。

They wanna monetize it if they can.

无论是对于Anthropic的企业市场，还是对于OpenAI的消费者市场，是否存在一条真正能赚到钱的路径？

Is there a path either in enterprise for Anthropic or consumer for OpenAI to actually make a dollar in profit?

这似乎是每个人都在关注的大问题。

That seems to be the the big question everybody has.

是的。

Yeah.

这是个非常好的问题。

That's a really good question.

当我与经济学家交谈时，他们认为这并不容易，也不太可能，但他们认为一到两家大语言模型提供商将脱颖而出，其余的则不得不合并。

And it's something that, when I was chatting with economists, they didn't feel that it would be that easy or likely, but they think that one or two LLM providers will come out on top and the rest will have to consolidate.

所以，确实存在这种可能性。

So yeah, there's a chance for sure.

Anthropic 和 OpenAI 都预测在 2029 年或 2030 年将实现某种形式的盈利。

Anthropic and OpenAI are both projecting some form of profitability in 2029, 2030.

Anthropic 表示，今年可能暂时略微盈利，然后又转为亏损，再在 2028 年和 2029 年重回盈利。

Anthropic said maybe this year it'll also like be slightly in the green and then go back in the red and then go back in the green for 2028, 2029.

但是，我认为他们都意识到，如果真要实现盈利，那一定是通过那些枯燥、不炫目、后台的业务，比如企业、军事和政府合同，因为消费者端真的不行。

But yeah, I mean, I think that they've all realized that if that is ever gonna happen, it's going to be via the boring, unglamorous, back of office stuff, enterprise, military contracts, government contracts, all that stuff because consumers just honestly yeah.

他们或许愿意为每月 200 美元的订阅付费，如果他们是重度用户，但无论如何，这类收入都不可能达到企业或政府合同那样的规模。

They'll maybe pay for a $200 a month subscription if they're a power user, but there is no way that stuff is ever going to add up to the amount of money that's involved in these enterprise or government contracts.

在我看来，这正是 OpenAI 面临重大抉择的时刻。

This seems to me like the point at which OpenAI faces just a fork in the road.

正如你所指出的，他们原本是为消费市场而打造的。

They were made to be a consumer business as as you've pointed out.

他们似乎很想切入谷歌的部分业务。

It seems very much like they wanted to bite off some of Google's business.

谷歌搜索，可能是商业史上最伟大的成功之一，也许是人类历史上最成功的商业模式。

Google search, one of the greatest successes in business history, maybe the greatest business that you can run-in world history.

他们其实并没有成功，对吧？

They haven't really succeeded, right?

他们或许改变了一些搜索行为，转向了ChatGPT，但并没有从谷歌那里夺走实质性的收入。

They might've shifted some search behavior to ChatGPT but they haven't taken meaningful dollars away from Google.

谷歌一直在变得越来越好，并且不断将Gemini整合到他们所有的产品中。

Google just keeps doing better and better and they keep lacing Gemini into everything that they make.

最终，当你明明可以使用谷歌获得几乎相同的结果时，还要打开ChatGPT来做搜索，这种想法会变得越来越难成立。

And eventually the idea that you would open ChatGPT to do a search when Google is going to deliver you something substantially the same.

OpenAI要在这一点上与谷歌竞争，将越来越困难。

That's going to get harder and harder for OpenAI to compete on.

他们是在彻底放弃消费端市场吗？

Are they just pivoting away from consumer entirely?

他们聘请了那么多来自Meta的人来做广告，但据我所知，广告效果几乎为零。

They hired all those meta people to do ads and the ads have come to approximately nothing from what I can tell.

是的。

Yeah.

那还为时过早，但说真的，这挺有意思的。

It's still early days for that, but I mean, it is it's it's funny.

我真的很想看看广告这块会怎么发展。

I don't I'm really interested to watch the ad stuff play out.

但不会。

But no.

他们并没有完全放弃消费者市场。

They're not pivoting from consumer.

他们只是看起来在把资源、算力和人力优先投入到企业级编码的项目中。

It just looks like they're trying to really front load their resources, their compute, and their staff into the the enterprise encoding efforts.

消费者市场已经建好了。

So consumer, it's already built.

维持它并持续推出新功能并不算疯狂，但看起来他们的大部分精力还是会放在追赶和缩小在企业及编程领域的差距上，尤其是因为他们在声誉上也存在明显差距。

It's not that crazy to keep it maintained and just like keep rolling stuff out, but it seems like most of their efforts are still gonna go towards catching up and closing the gap in enterprise and coding, especially because reputationally, they also have a gap to close there.

Anthropic无论好坏，都拥有可靠、品牌安全的声誉。

Anthropic, for better or worse, has the reputation of being pretty trustworthy, pretty brand safe.

几个月前，我跟一些初创公司聊这个话题时，他们很多人都这么跟我说。

That's what a lot of startups were telling me when I talked to them about this a few months ago.

他们都担心与XAI尤其相关，以及OpenAI也部分相关的风险。

They all were afraid of like the risk associated with especially XAI and somewhat OpenAI as well.

使用Anthropic的产品感觉很安全。

Anthropic, felt pretty safe using it.

他们不觉得自己会因为声誉风险而承担责任。

They didn't feel like they'd be on the hook for reputational risk.

所以，OpenAI必须在实际使用量上缩小差距，从人们偏好的轶事、与Claude代码相关的炒作，以及Anthropic凭借其稳定缓慢增长所建立的声誉方面入手。

So yeah, OpenAI has to close the gap in terms of actual usage, anecdotally what people prefer, the hype that's involved with Claude code and all that that brings, and then also the reputational stuff that Anthropic kind of has going for it just because of its steady, slow growth.

Anthropic的这种稳定状态在整个公司都有体现，不仅体现在产品开发或战略上，也体现在员工留存率和从整个AI行业吸引人才的能力上。

That steady state for Anthropic is kind of reflected across the company, not just in product development or strategy, but in terms of employee retention or the ability to attract people from across the AI industry.

很多人才都直接流向Anthropic。

A lot of people just head towards Anthropic.

我可以将这与OpenAI形成对比，你提到OpenAI有着不同的声誉。

I would contrast that to OpenAI which you're pointing out has a different reputation.

就在过去一两周内，他们似乎彻底更换了整个高管团队。

And then just in the last week or two weeks feels like it's turned over its entire executive team.

你提到的菲吉·西莫是AGI部署部门的CEO。

Fidji Simo, who you mentioned is CEO of AGI Deployment.

她一分钟前的头衔还是应用部门的CEO。

Her title like a minute ago was CEO of Applications.

他们改成了AGI部署，这我完全搞不懂。

And they switched to the AGI Deployment, which I don't understand at all.

现在她正在休病假。

And now she's out on medical leave.

祝她一切顺利。

I wish her well.

他们还有其他高管也在休假期。

They have other executives who are out on leave.

他们的市场负责人刚刚离职。

Their head of marketing just left.

就在这些人离开之前，他们收购了一个名为TBPN的播客。

Right before all those people left, they bought a podcast called TBPN.

我真想知道他们那边到底发生了什么？

I what's going on over there?

现在这家公司还算稳定吗？

Is is this like a stable company right now?

现在确实非常疯狂。

It is it is pretty crazy right now.

我认为他们正在经历一次巨大的战略转型，问题在于，这是否会像过去每一次转型一样——要么全力投入一件事，要么全力投入另一件事，或者同时全力投入五件事。

I think they're going through a huge strategic shift, and it's just it's a question of whether this is gonna be like every other shift we've seen in the past with them kinda going all in on one thing, going all in on another thing, going all in in parallel on five things.

这次变革真的能持续下去吗？

Is this really gonna last?

这正是人们在问的问题，而我们也不知道。

That's kind of what people are asking, and we don't know.

我的意思是，如果他们真的完全专注于编码和企业市场，那出现这么大的动荡也就说得通了。

I mean, I think if they are entirely focused on coding enterprise, yeah, it makes sense that there'd be a lot of upheaval.

但他们也非常投入于打造这款超级应用，而格雷格·布罗克曼在西莫离开后接管了这项工作。

But they're also like, you know, really into building this super app, and Greg Brockman just took over charge of that while Simo is out.

在业务方面，他们的首席战略官、首席财务官和首席营收官将接手管理，而首席营销官则因健康原因辞职。

And then on the business side, their CSO, their CFO, and their CRO are gonna take charge, and then their CMO just stepped down due to health reasons.

他们的传播负责人已于一月离职，目前仍无人接任。

Their head of communications stepped down in January, and there's still no replacement there.

我认为这正是他们收购TBPN的原因之一。

And that I think is part of why they bought TBPN.

过去几个月，OpenAI受到了大量负面报道。

There's been a lot of bad press about OpenAI in the last few months.

他们经历了许多公开争议和持续不断的风波，这对他们塑造一家让企业和政府信赖的公司声誉极为不利。

They've had a lot of public controversy and a lot of just drama playing out and that does not and that is not good for their quest to have a reputation as a company that enterprises and the government can trust.

因此，我认为这也是他们收购TBPN的原因之一。

And so I think that's part of why they bought TBPN.

他们明确表示，希望帮助塑造舆论，也就是掌控关于人工智能的公众叙事。

They said that literally they wanted to help shape the narrative, aka help control the public narrative playing out about AI.

那么，还有什么比雇佣那些每个工作日都被观看三小时、一直在讨论这件事的人更好的方式呢？

And so what better way than to hire the people that are being watched three hours every weekday who are talking about it.

此外，TBPN 将在空闲时间帮助 OpenAI 处理公关和市场营销。

Plus TBPN is now going to help like, with OpenAI's comms and marketing in their free time.

所以，我的意思是，这确实是一个收购人才的交易。

So, yeah, I mean, it's really an acquihire situation.

对。

Yeah.

我对这一点有很多想法。

I have a lot of thoughts on that.

我认为，很多其他 AI 公司把高管放到 TBPN 上，肯定也有很多看法，我听到了一些。

I I think a lot of the other AI companies who put their executives on TBPN certainly have a lot of thoughts about that, that I've heard.

我们先放一放这个话题。

We'll set that aside.

说这只是个营销问题或叙事问题，上一次我听到这种说法，还是优步高管抱怨优步只收到负面报道的时候。

The idea that it's just a marketing problem or a narrative problem, the last time I heard that was Uber executives complaining that Uber only got bad press.

我当时认识的大部分媒体都表示，不，你只需要继续做你的事。

And most of the media that I knew at the time was like, no, you just keep doing stuff.

是的。

Yep.

是的。

Yep.

这不是叙事问题。

It's not the narrative.

真正让你获得负面报道的，是你一直在做的事情。

It's literally what you are doing all the time that is getting you the bad press.

你不能光靠对我们大喊大叫就让我们喜欢你。

You can't just yell at us into liking you.

OpenAI 的情况并不完全一样。

It's not quite the same with OpenAI.

他们以一种非常特定的方式备受青睐。

They are darlings in a very specific way.

但在我看来，负面报道或被感知的负面叙事，完全源于他们的战略混乱。

But the bad press or the perceived bad narrative, in my opinion has everything to do with their strategic confusion.

对。

Right.

对。

Right.

媒体并不是针对人工智能。

The media is not out to get AI.

当你做民意调查时，美国广大公众会觉得人工智能的受欢迎程度还不如移民与海关执法局。

It's when you do the polls, the broad public in The United States is like AI is less popular than ICE.

即使人们每天都接触这些工具，他们对这些工具的感受之间还是存在差距。

Like, there's a gap in how people feel about these tools even though they're exposed to them all the time.

这一切都是OpenAI的责任吗？

Is that all on OpenAI?

还是说这是整个AI领域普遍存在的问题？

Is that across AI in general?

在我看来，这很大程度上是OpenAI，特别是萨姆·阿尔特曼，不停地到处说：‘如果你们不给我这么多权力，我可能会不小心毁灭世界。’

To me, it feels like it's very much OpenAI, in particular, Sam Altman running around all the time saying, like, I might destroy the world by accident if you don't give me all this power.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得特别有趣的是，看看普通公众和科技圈人士对AI的感受有何不同——他们感受的方式确实不一样，虽然有些重叠，但原因却不同。

I think it's really interesting to, like, look at how the general public feels versus how people that are in tech feel because they kind of feel they feel different ways, but there is some overlap, but it's for different reasons.

所以，我记得在过去的几个月里，我曾和一家追踪公众看法的公司聊天，他们说，总体而言，普通公众并不喜欢AI。

So I remember when I was chatting with, a firm that charts like public perception of things in the last couple months, they said that, yeah, the general public really didn't like AI for the most part.

他们按世代、性别等不同维度做了细分，但总体来看，普通公众确实不太喜欢AI，而且他们发现，AI公司越有名，公众对它的负面看法就越严重，仅仅因为人们更清楚地意识到它是一家AI公司。

They broke it out by generation, by gender, all sorts of different things, but for the most part, yeah, like the general public was not a fan and they noticed that the more well known an AI company was, the worse the public perception of them just because they were more aware that it was an AI company.

因此，根据这家公司的标准，OpenAI的声誉比Anthropic更差，但随着Anthropic的公众认知度上升，人们对它的看法却在下降。

So OpenAI had a worse reputation by this firm standards than Anthropic per se, but as Anthropic's like public perception was on the rise, opinion of it was going down.

这真是挺有意思的。

So that was just interesting.

也就是说，如果你被公认为一家AI领域的知名公司，那么目前大多数普通公众对你的态度并不友好。

It's like, if if you're known as a household name for being an AI company, like, the general public right now isn't really a fan for the the majority at least.

在科技圈内，人们关注的是这些公司的商业运作方式以及首席执行官们的言论。

Within tech, people are looking at the business angle and how these companies are conducting themselves, what the CEOs are saying.

也许萨姆·阿尔特曼对美国普通人来说并不是一个家喻户晓的名字。

Maybe Sam Altman isn't a household name for the average person in America.

我觉得很多人知道他是谁，但我在外面和人聊天时提到‘萨姆·阿尔曼’，他们却会问：‘那是谁？’

I think a lot of people know who he is, but I will be talking to people in the wild and say Sam Allman and they're like, who's that?

所以当我提到‘OpenAI的首席执行官’时，他们就明白了。

So when I say CEO of OpenAI, they get it.

但我觉得有趣的是，比较科技圈的反应和普通公众的反应：在科技行业，人们确实对OpenAI的商业策略以及萨姆·阿尔特曼四处宣扬‘没有Chad GPT我都没法带孩子’、‘如果你的工作被AI取代了，也许该考虑换份工作’这类言论感到疑虑。

But yeah, think it's interesting like, you know, just comparing the tech reactions to the general public's reactions because in the tech industry, yeah, people are really raising an eyebrow at OpenAI's business strategy and at Sam Altman going around saying like, oh, I couldn't raise my child without Chad GPT or oh, like, you know, if your job gets replaced by AI, like, maybe, you know, you should think about switching jobs.

而且，达里奥·阿马德乌斯也说过一些让人觉得可疑的话。

And, you know, Dario Amadeus said kind of sus things as well.

所以，说实话，没有哪位AI领域的领导者在公关方面做得完全到位。

So I mean, you know, no AI leader is is doing comms entirely right.

但看到普通公众的观感与科技圈内的看法之间的差异，确实很有趣。

But it is interesting to see kind of, yeah, the difference between the general public's perception versus people in tech.

我们得再做一个短暂的休息。

We have to take another quick break.

马上回来。

We'll be back in just a minute.

特朗普的心理状态如何影响大国冲突？

How is Trump's psychology having an impact on the great power conflict?

多年来，有些人根本无法想象美国会对伊朗实施有限打击。

There were folks who, for years, could never imagine The US carrying out limited strikes on Iran.

对吧？

Right?

如果你回顾那场持续十二天的战争，他投放了那些钻地炸弹。

If you go back to the twelve day war, he dropped those bunker busters.

对吧？

Right?

过去几届政府的总统都从未打算与伊朗全面开战，但现在他们却这样做了。

And you had presidents through multiple administrations who never would have gone to full scale war with Iran, and here they are.

我是普里特·巴拉拉。

I'm Preet Bharara.

本周，CNN首席国家安全分析师吉姆·西乌托与我一起讨论伊朗战争、我们日益松散的联盟关系，以及俄罗斯和中国的崛起。

And this week, CNN's chief national security analyst, Jim Sciuto, joins me to discuss the Iran war, our fraying alliances, and the rise of Russia and China.

这一集现已上线。

The episode is out now.

搜索并关注。

Search and follow.

无论你在哪个平台收听播客，都请继续关注普里特。

Stay tuned with Preet wherever you get your podcasts.

我们回来了，今天与《The Verge》高级人工智能记者海登·菲尔德讨论人工智能行业的关键之年以及接下来可能发生的事情。

We're back with Verge senior AI reporter Hayden Field discussing the AI industry's make or break year and what might happen next.

这正好让我们来到了一个生死攸关的时刻，对吧？

This kind of brings us to the make or break moment, right?

这些公司都正朝着上市迈进，它们的财务状况已经全部泄露。

These companies are both headed towards IPOs, their financials have all leaked.

我们可以看到他们的资本结构表，也能看到他们的收入预测。

We can see their cap tables, we can see their revenue projections.

这感觉有点像龟兔赛跑，对吧？

And it feels a little bit like tortoise in the hair, right?

你看到Anthropic致力于成为一家企业级公司，成为软件开发的解决方案，这在一定程度上改变了软件开发的整个格局。

You've got Anthropic committing to being an enterprise company, being a solution for software development that has kind of changed the entire nature of software development.

你还有OpenAI的Codex，它认为自己也能抢占这一部分市场，同时关闭了那些不成功的消费者应用。

You have OpenAI with Codex that thinks that it can eat a piece of that market as well, shutting down consumer applications that aren't working.

也许它会搞懂广告，也许真能从谷歌搜索中分走一杯羹，谁知道呢。

Maybe it will figure out ads, maybe it will actually bite off a piece of Google search, who knows.

但它们仍然到处跳跃，仿佛OpenAI始终全速前进，而Anthropic则稳步沿着自己的路线图前进。

But they're still just hopping all over the place like it's just pedal to the metal of OpenAI all the time and Anthropic just continues moving along its roadmap.

你觉得这会如何发展？不是在IPO的时间线范围内，而是在短期内？

How do you think that plays out not you know, over the course of the IPO timeline, but in the short term?

你认为OpenAI能重新找回专注感吗？

Do you think OpenAI can recapture a sense of focus?

我认为他们会非常努力，而且我认为他们能做到。

I think I think it's going to try very hard and I think it will be able to.

问题是，他们能否保持这种专注，你知道吗？

The question is just can it hold on to that focus, you know?

我的意思是，我以前见过他们这样改变策略，但通常几个月后或一年后就不了了之了。

I mean, I've seen them change their strategy just like this in the past and usually it just falls by the wayside a couple months later or a year later.

所以我好奇的是，他们能坚持多久。

So what I'm wondering is how long they can hold on to this.

像Anthropic那样，他们已经明确专注于一件事，并且大部分时间都坚持了下来。

Like Anthropic has, you know, committed to one thing, stuck with it for the most part.

而OpenAI，每当他们承诺某件事，一年后事情就会变，你知道，团队会被解散，他们会进行重组。

OpenAI, whenever they commit to something, like a year later, things shift, you know, teams will be disbanded, they'll have a reorg.

Anthropic也经历了大量变化，但始终保持着一个目标，并坚持了下来。

You know, Anthropic's also seen a ton of change, but it's always had this one goal and kind of stuck with it.

我跟踪这两家公司已经很久了，所以你能明显看到其中的趋势。

I've been tracking both these companies for so long that it's like, you you can kind of see the trends there.

所以这可能是OpenAI的一次重大转变，他们真的要转型了，也许这就是我们看到大量高管重组、边缘项目被砍掉，试图迫使他们专注的原因。

So maybe this is a big step change for OpenAI and they're really going to pivot and maybe that's why we're seeing all this executive restructuring and, the side projects being killed and trying to really force them to commit.

但这很有趣，因为我不知道他们在企业级编码方面能以多快的速度赶上Anthropic，我甚至听说一些初创公司创始人已经完全转向Anthropic，而他们以前是两者都测试的。

But it is interesting because I don't know the rate at which they'll be able to catch up with Anthropic when it comes to enterprise encoding because I've even seen anecdotally a bunch of startup founders switching entirely over to Anthropic when they used to be testing both.

几个月前我们做过一篇报道，讲Claude Code正处在风口，我接触过的众多不同领域的创始人和公司领导者都更喜欢Anthropic的这类产品。

We did a piece a couple months ago about how Claude Code was having a moment and most of the founders and company leaders I talked with in a ton of different sectors preferred Anthropic products for this stuff.

所以，不得不说，OpenAI在提升其编码模型方面确实付出了巨大努力，不断改进。

So I mean, to OpenAI's credit, it has been working really hard on getting its coding models up to date, more improvement.

我们已经看到有些人开始更青睐OpenAI的模型了。

We've seen people start to prefer that sometimes.

所以，他们在这一领域取得了巨大进展。

So I mean, they've made a huge advancement here.

只是他们能否缩小这一差距呢？

It's just can they close the gap?

这我们就得拭目以待了。

That's what we'll have to wait and see on.

是的

Yeah.

它真的让人感觉软件开发是这些工具的产品市场契合点。

It really feels like software development is product market fit for these tools.

这是一个非常有利可图的市场。

And that's a very lucrative market.

很多工作可能会消失，或者以某种有意义的方式发生重大变化。

That is a lot of jobs that might go away or change substantially in some meaningful way.

其他的一切都只能拭目以待。

And everything else is like wait and see.

任何看起来像软件开发的东西都可能实现产品市场契合，但软件开发本身是一个庞大的类别。

Like you anything that kind of looks like software development might get product market fit, but software development is such a big category.

这正是许多公司即将聚焦的重点。

That's in particular what a bunch of these companies are gonna focus on.

我非常好奇，随着这些公司越来越接近上市，迫使它们成为真正企业的压力越来越大，而Anthropic也必须进一步调整定价，以确保它在经营一个真正的业务，而不是一个代币补贴项目。

I'm very curious as the pressure on turning these companies into real businesses goes up as they get closer to an IPO and Anthropic has to monkey with pricing even more to make sure that they're running an actual business and not a token subsidy operation.