Decoder with Nilay Patel - 人民并不渴望自动化 封面

人民并不渴望自动化

THE PEOPLE DO NOT YEARN FOR AUTOMATION

本集简介

今天在《Decoder》节目中,我想阐述一个近几周来在我脑海中反复萦绕的想法,这源于我们报道人工智能以及在本节目中进行的讨论。我称之为“软件思维”,这是一种将世界万物都归结为算法、数据库和循环的特定视角。 软件思维威力巨大,它基本上塑造了我们的现代世界。但人工智能已经极大地强化了这种软件思维,我认为这有助于解释科技行业对这项技术的极度兴奋与普通民众随着时间推移越来越反感之间的巨大鸿沟。 链接: 为什么软件正在吞噬世界 | 马克·安德森 Z世代对人工智能的爱恨交织 | The Verge 对萨姆·阿尔特曼的攻击是人工智能世界的警示 | The Verge 硅谷已经忘记了普通人想要什么 | The Verge 我在旧金山看到了新事物 | 纽约时报 Anthropic首席执行官就白领工作发出严重警告 | The Street 订阅 The Verge,获取无广告版《Decoder》! 致谢: 《Decoder》由 The Verge 制作,属于 Vox Media 播客网络的一部分。 《Decoder》由凯特·考克斯和尼克·斯塔特制作,由乌尔萨·赖特剪辑。我们的编辑总监是凯文·麦克谢恩。 《Decoder》主题音乐由 Breakmaster Cylinder 创作。 了解更多关于您的广告选择。请访问 podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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本节目由 MongoDB 赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from MongoDB.

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如果你是个开发者,整天忙着修瓶颈,却没时间打造下一个爆款应用,那你真该试试 MongoDB。

If you're a developer stuck fixing bottlenecks instead of building the next big thing, then you need MongoDB.

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MongoDB 是个灵活又统一的平台,让你专心做事,不用被工具拖后腿。

MongoDB is the flexible, unified platform that gets out of your way.

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它支持 ACID 事务,适合企业级使用,专为快速开发 AI 应用而设计。

It's ACID compliant, enterprise ready, and built to ship AI apps fast.

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这么多《财富》500 强企业都选它,不是没道理的。

It's trusted by so many of the Fortune 500 for a reason.

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随便问个开发者就知道。

Ask any developer.

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这真是个超棒的数据库。

It's a great freaking database.

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马上开始构建吧,访问 mongodb.com/build。

Start building at mongodb.com/build.

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我们和Finn一起打造了全球排名第一的客户服务AI代理。

With Finn, we've built the number one AI agent for customer service.

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它能解决企业高达90%的客户咨询,性能在G2排行榜上遥遥领先,还附带一百万美元的保障承诺。

It solves up to 90% of queries for businesses, tops all the performance benchmarks in the g two leaderboard, and it comes with a million dollar guarantee.

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详情请访问 fin.ai。

Check it out at fin.ai.

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本节目由Hostinger赞助。

Support for the show comes from Hostinger.

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你有没有过什么商业点子或副业想法,却一直没付诸行动?

Ever had an idea for a business or side hustle but never actually launched it?

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有了Hostinger,你几分钟内就能把想法变成现实,不用再等上几周。

With Hostinger, you can turn that idea into something real in minutes instead of weeks.

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Hostinger是一个一体化平台,把所有工具都整合在一起。

Hostinger is an all in one platform that brings everything into one place.

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域名、网站、邮件营销、AI工具,还有AI代理,全都在这儿。

Your domain, website, email marketing, AI tools, and AI agents.

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你可以用简单的指令创建网站、在线商店和定制应用。

You can create websites, online stores, and custom apps with simple prompts.

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再用AI代理自动处理繁琐任务,推动业务增长。

Then use AI agents to automate tedious tasks and grow your business.

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访问 hostinger.com/decoder,每月不到三美元就把你的想法上线。

Go to hostinger.com/decoder to bring your idea online for under $3 a month.

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使用优惠码 Decoder,再享八折优惠。

Use promo code Decoder for an extra 20% off.

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今天,我想分享一个最近几周一直在我脑子里盘旋的想法,我们在报道AI、在Decoder上讨论时,这个想法越来越清晰。

Today, I wanna lay out an idea that's been banging around my head for weeks now as we've been reporting on AI and having conversations here on Decoder.

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我管它叫‘软件大脑’,这是一种看待世界的方式,把一切事物都归结为算法、数据库和循环——也就是软件。

I've been calling it software brain, and it's a particular way of seeing the world that fits everything into algorithms and databases and loops, software.

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欢迎来到Decoder。

Hello and welcome to Decoder.

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我是Nilay Patel,《The Verge》的主编,Decoder是我探讨重大理念和其他问题的节目。

I'm Nilay Patel, editor in chief of The Verge, Decoder is my show about big ideas and other problems.

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这套“软件思维”的力量非常强大。

Software brain is powerful stuff.

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正是这套思维模式从根本上构建了我们如今的现代世界。

It is a way of thinking that basically created our modern world.

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马克·安德森就是“软件思维”的完美化身,他早在2011年就提出了这个核心逻辑——当时他为《华尔街日报》撰写了一篇评论专栏,标题是《软件正在吞噬世界》。

Marc Andreessen, is the literal embodiment of software brain, called it in 2011 when he wrote an op ed for The Wall Street Journal called Software is Eating the World.

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最近,人工智能给这套软件化的思维模式安上了加速器;我认为这个变化刚好能解释,为什么科技界对AI的狂热,和普通民众对它越来越反感的态度,会产生如此巨大的落差。

Lately, software thinking has been turbocharged by AI in a way that I think helps explain the enormous gap between how excited the tech industry is about the technology and how much regular people are growing to dislike it.

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说真的,相关民调的结果一面倒得离谱。

In fact, the polling on this is so strong.

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我觉得有件事说得一点没错:很多人都讨厌人工智能,尤其是Z世代,他们越接触AI,讨厌的情绪就越强烈。

I think it's fair to say that a lot of people hate AI and that Gen Z in particular seems to hate AI more and more the more they encounter it.

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NBC新闻有份民调显示,大众对AI的好感度还不如美国移民及海关执法局,只比伊朗战争和民主党整体的好感度高一点点。

There's that NBC News poll showing AI with worse favorables than ICE and only a little bit above the war in Iran and Democrats generally.

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这还是在有近三分之二的受访者称自己过去一个月里用过ChatGPT或者Copilot的情况下发生的。

That's what the nearly two thirds of respondents saying they'd used ChatGPT or Copilot in the last month.

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昆尼皮亚克大学最近的一项调查显示,超过一半的美国人认为人工智能带来的害处会多于好处。

Quinnipiac just found that over half of Americans think AI will do more harm than good.

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尽管超过八成的人对这项技术感到非常或某种程度的担忧,但只有三成五的人对此感到兴奋。

While more than 80% of people were either very concerned or somewhat concerned about the technology, only 35% of people were excited about it.

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一次次民调都显示,Z世代使用人工智能最多,对它的负面情绪也最强烈。

And poll after poll shows that Gen Z uses AI the most and has the most negative feelings about it.

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最近盖洛普的一项调查发现,只有18%的Z世代对人工智能抱有希望,而去年这个数字本来就不高,也只有27%。

A recent Gallup poll found that only 18% of Gen Z was hopeful about AI, down from an already bad 27% last year.

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与此同时,愤怒情绪也在上升。

At the same time, anger is growing.

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有31%的Z世代受访者表示他们对人工智能感到愤怒,比去年的22%有所上升。

Thirty one percent of those Gen Z respondents said they feel angry about AI, up from twenty two percent last year.

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我在《Decoder》节目里经常接触科技公司高管和政策制定者,我可以告诉你,他们都清楚人工智能不受欢迎,也都能看到这种情绪在现实中如何显现。

Now I obviously talk to a lot of tech executives and policy people here on Decoder, and I will tell you they all know AI isn't popular, and they can all see how that's playing out in real life.

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微软CEO萨提亚·纳德拉谈到,科技行业需要好好说明,为什么值得在人工智能上投入如此巨大的资源。

Here's Microsoft CEO, Satya Nadella, talking about how the tech industry needs to make the case for the enormous investments it's making in AI.

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归根结底,我所在的这个行业必须赢得公众的许可,才能继续消耗这么多能源,因为我们确实在为世界带来积极影响。

At the end of the day, I I I think that this industry in which to which I belong needs to earn the social permission to consume energy because we are doing good in the world.

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可以说,科技行业和人工智能至今还没赢得任何这样的社会认可。

I think it's safe to say the tech industry and AI have not earned any of that social permission yet.

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无论哪个政党,政客们都在反对新建数据中心。

Politicians from both sides of the aisle are opposing data center build outs.

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那些支持数据中心的政客和当地社区,正被选民赶下台。

Politicians and local communities that support data centers are getting voted out of office.

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最令人沮丧的是,支持数据中心的政客们,连自家房子都被人开枪射击了——这已经成了美国日常生活中的一部分。

And in the most depressing reminder of how much political violence has become part of everyday American life, politicians who supported data centers have gotten their houses shot at.

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OpenAI的首席执行官萨姆·阿尔特曼,家里的房子就被人扔过汽油弹。

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has had Molotov cocktails thrown at his house.

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真让人难过,我得在这档节目里再说一遍这件事;更让人难过的是,还有人会留言说这种暴力行为没什么大不了。

It's sad that I'm gonna have to say this again on the show, and it's sad that we're gonna have commenters who disagree that this violence is unacceptable.

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如果你真想有效反对人工智能,而且希望这种反对能持久,那就用你的钱包在市场里投票,用你的注意力在互联网上发声。

If you want to meaningfully oppose AI in a way that lasts, you should speak loudly with your dollars in the marketplace and your attention on the Internet.

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更要在民主监管和政治流程中,用手中的选票发出更有力的声音。

And you should speak even more loudly with your votes in the democratic regulatory and political process.

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用其他任何方式表达反对,只会被无视,还会让这种恶性循环一直持续下去。

Anything else will get dismissed and be used to perpetuate the cycle.

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而这种无视的情况现在已经发生了。

That dismissal is already happening.

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我还觉得,政界人士和科技行业的高管们必须重视一件事:我刚才说的这套政治流程,要能让大家觉得自己有话语权,而不是感到无助——那种无助感催生了一种极端的虚无主义,而这些人正是把局面推到这一步的主要推手。

I also think it's incredibly important for politicians and tech executives to make sure that political process I'm describing makes people feel empowered, not helpless, which is causing a specific kind of nihilism they have all greatly contributed to.

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这些暴力行为正是这种无助感和虚无主义催生的,社会上最有影响力的那群人必须正视这个问题,更何况他们还到处嚷嚷说AI会抢走所有人的工作。

The violence is a result of that helplessness and nihilism, and the most powerful people in our society ought to reckon with that, especially as they run around saying AI will wipe out all the jobs.

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这真的一点都不夸张。

That's not even remotely an exaggeration.

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你看Anthropic的CEO达里奥·阿莫代伊就说过,他觉得AI会把所有工作都取代掉。

Here's Anthropic CEO Dario Omode saying he thinks AI will wipe out all the jobs.

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像金融、咨询、科技这类领域的入门级岗位都会受影响,还有许许多多其他类似的行业也一样。

Entry level jobs in areas like finance, consulting, tech, many many other areas like that.

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初级白领工作。

Entry level white collar work.

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我担心这类工作首先会被AI辅助,但很快就会被AI取代,我们很可能真的会面临一场严重的就业危机。

I worry that those things are going to be first augmented, but before long replaced by AI systems and that we we we may indeed.

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未来很难预测,但随着这些初级白领岗位的供给渠道逐渐收缩、枯竭,我们确实可能陷入一场严重的就业危机。

It's hard to predict the future, but we may indeed have a have a serious employment crisis on our hands as the pipeline for for these early stage white collar work starts to, starts to contract and dry up.

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当我看到这类言论时,我看到的是科技行业和普通人之间在AI认知上的巨大鸿沟,是技术思维的局限。

What I see when I encounter clips like that is the true gap between the tech industry and regular people when it comes to AI, the limit of software brain.

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就像我说的,科技圈的人都知道普通人有多反感AI。

Like I said, everyone in tech understands how much regular people dislike AI.

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但他们没搞清楚的是,为什么会这样。

What I think they're missing is why.

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他们以为这只是一个营销问题。

They think this is a marketing problem.

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OpenAI花了两亿美元在《TBPN播客》上做广告,就是觉得这样能让人更接受AI。

OpenAI just spent $200,000,000 on the TBPN Podcast because they think it will help make people like AI more.

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萨姆·奥尔特曼本人就把这句话说的明明白白。

Sam Altman said it explicitly.

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他们的确是营销天才,我也真心希望能有更出色的营销方案。

They are genius marketers, and I would love to have better marketing.

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最近还有人跟我说,如果把AI比作一个政治候选人,那它绝对是史上最没人待见的候选人。

Someone said to me recently that if AI were a political candidate, it would be the least popular political candidate in history.

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可AI明明能实现这么多厉害的事,我觉得我们必须得给它做更好的推广。

And given the amazing things AI can do, I think there's gotta be better marketing for AI.

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感觉必须有人把这话挑明了,那我就直说了

It feels like someone needs to say this clearly, so I'm just gonna say it.

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AI根本就不是推广层面的问题

AI does not have a marketing problem.

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大家天天都在用到这些工具

People experience these tools every single day.

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ChatGPT每周有9亿活跃用户,很快就要突破10亿了

ChatGPT has 900,000,000 weekly users trending to a billion.

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所有人都在谷歌搜索里看过AI摘要,也在自己的信息流里刷到过一大堆粗制滥造的AI内容。

Everyone has seen AI overviews in Google Search and massive amounts of slop on their feeds.

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你没法靠打广告,让人们无视自己真实经历出来的感受。

You can't advertise people out of reacting to their own experiences.

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搞技术的人带着一套软件行业的固化思维看世界,和普通人真实的生活状态完全脱节,这才是根本问题。

This is a fundamental disconnect between how tech people with software brain see the world and how regular people are living their lives.

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我们先稍事休息一下。

We need to take a quick break.

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我们马上回来。

We'll be right back.

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本节目由MongoDB赞助播出。

Support for the show comes from MongoDB.

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如果你早就受够了数据库的各种限制,还有一扩容就崩盘的架构,是时候跳出传统行列存储的局限了。

If you're tired of database limitations and architectures that break when you scale, it's time to think outside of rows and columns.

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毕竟说实话,你入行做技术可不是为了守着个漏洞百出的数据库擦屁股的。

Because let's be honest, you didn't get into tech to babysit a broken database.

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你入行是为了真正做出点东西来的

You got into it to actually build something.

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MongoDB就能帮你实现这一点

MongoDB lets you do that.

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它灵活性强、以开发者为核心、符合ACID标准、满足企业级使用需求,更是为人工智能时代打造的

It's flexible, developer first, ACID compliant, enterprise ready, and built for the AI era.

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和性能瓶颈还有老旧遗留代码彻底说再见吧

Say goodbye to bottlenecks and legacy code.

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那就用MongoDB开启你的创新之路吧。

Start innovating with MongoDB.

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众多财富世界500强企业都信赖它不是没有道理的,因为这个平台从一开始就是开发者为开发者打造的。

There's a reason it's trusted by so many of the Fortune 500, and that's because it's a platform built by developers for developers.

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MongoDB,真的是一款超级好用的数据库。

MongoDB, it's a great freaking database.

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现在就访问mongodb.com/build开始搭建你的项目吧。

Start building at mongodb.com/build.

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本节目由Odoo赞助支持。

Support for this show comes from Odoo.

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经营企业已经够难了,干嘛还要用十几个互不相通的软件来给自己添堵?

Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?

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介绍Odoo。

Introducing Odoo.

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这是你这辈子唯一需要的商业软件。

It's the only business software you'll ever need.

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它是一个一体化、完全集成的平台,能让您的工作轻松不少。

It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.

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客户关系管理、财务、库存、电子商务,还有更多功能。

CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, and more.

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最棒的是什么?

And the best part?

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Odoo以不到几分之一的价格,取代了多个昂贵的系统。

Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.

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正因如此,数千家企业都已经转用这款系统了。

That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.

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为什么你不试试呢?

So why not you?

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大家可以前往odoo.com免费试用。

Try Odo for free at odo.com.

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再说一遍,网址是odoo.com。

That's odoo.com.

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本期节目由CNN赞助播出。

Support for today's show comes from CNN.

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你想永远活下去吗?

Do you wanna live forever?

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知名记者卡拉·斯威瑟正在深入研究长寿产业,厘清网红炒作和有科学依据的事实。

Influential journalist Kara Swisher is taking a hard look at the longevity industry to separate the influencer hype from evidence backed science.

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在她为CNN打造的全新原创系列节目中,卡拉和硅谷的领军人物对话,还亲身体验了最新的抗衰老技术,甄别哪些有用,哪些只是交智商税。

In her new CNN original series, Kara's talking to Silicon Valley power players and trying out the latest in antiaging technology to see what works and what's a waste.

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卡拉·斯威舍尔想永生不死。

Cara Swisher wants to live forever.

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新系列现已上线,需CNN订阅观看。

New series now streaming with a CNN subscription.

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前往 cnn.com/subscribe 开通订阅,限时立减四成。

Go to cnn.com slash subscribe to get started and save 40% for a limited time.

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条款适用。

Terms apply.

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本节目由Serval AI赞助播出。

Support for this show comes from Serval AI.

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一个高效的IT团队,不该把将近一半的时间花在重复性工单上。

A functioning IT team shouldn't be wasting almost half their day on repetitive tickets.

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比如重置密码、权限申请、新人入职这些事。

Things like password resets, access requests, and onboarding.

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这些琐碎的工作,正在拖累团队,让他们没法专注真正重要的任务。

Those tedious tasks are pulling your team away from the actual meaningful work.

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但用了 Servo,你能把 80% 的客服工单都省掉。

But with Servo, you can cut 80% of your help desk tickets.

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和其他老牌产品不同,Servo 是从零开始为 AI 代理打造的。

Unlike other legacy players, Servo was built for AI agents from the ground up.

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Servo AI 几秒钟就能写出自动化流程。

Servo AI writes automation in seconds.

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你的 IT 团队只要用大白话描述需求,Servo 就能立刻生成可以直接上线的自动化方案。

Your IT team just describes what they need in plain English, and Servo generates production ready automations instantly.

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而且,Servo 承诺在你免费试用的第四周前,至少实现 50% 的客服工单自动化。

Plus Servo guarantees 50% help desk automation by week four of your free pilot.

Speaker 0

赶紧试试吧,试用名额有限。

But try it now because pilots are limited.

Speaker 0

Servo 已经为全球增长最快的公司提供支持,比如 Perplexity、Merkur、Vercada 和 Clay。

Servo powers the fastest growing companies in the world, like Perplexity, Merkur, Vercada, and Clay.

Speaker 0

让你的团队摆脱客服工单,回归真正喜欢的工作。

Get your team out of the help desk and back to the work they enjoy.

Speaker 0

立即前往serval.com/decoder预约免费试用试点项目。

Book your free pilot at serval.com/decoder.

Speaker 0

再次提醒一下,网址是serval.com/decoder。

That's serval.com/decoder.

Speaker 6

本节目由Odoo赞助播出。运营企业已经够辛苦了,何必还要用上十几个互不连通的应用,平白增添更多麻烦?

Support for this show comes from Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?

Speaker 6

接下来为大家介绍Odoo。

Introducing Odoo.

Speaker 6

这绝对是你能用得到的最好用的企业办公软件了

It's the only business software you'll ever need.

Speaker 6

它是一个高度集成的一站式平台,能帮你大幅减轻工作负担

It's an all in one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier.

Speaker 6

不管是客户关系管理、财务记账、库存管理还是电商运营,它都能搞定

CRM, accounting, inventory, ecommerce, and more.

Speaker 6

最厉害的是?

And the best part?

Speaker 6

Odoo 以远低于其他平台的价格,取代了多个昂贵的系统。

ODOO replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost.

Speaker 6

所以才有成千上万家企业选择了切换到 Odoo。

That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.

Speaker 6

那你为什么还不试试呢?

So why not you?

Speaker 6

马上去 odoo.com 免费试用。

Try Odoo for free at odoo.com.

Speaker 6

就是 odoo.com。

That's odoo.com.

Speaker 2

那什么是软件思维呢?

So what is software brain?

Speaker 2

我给它下的最简单的定义就是:把整个世界看作一系列可以用结构化语言和代码控制的数据库。

The simplest definition I've come up with is that it's when you see the entire world as a series of databases that can be controlled with structured language, software code.

Speaker 2

正如我所说,这是一种非常强大的看待事物的方式。

Like I said, this is a powerful way of seeing things.

Speaker 2

我们生活的方方面面都依赖着数据库,很多重要的公司正是围绕着维护这些数据库和提供访问服务而建立的。

So much of our lives runs through databases, and a bunch of important companies have been built around maintaining those databases and providing access to them.

Speaker 2

Zillow 是一个房屋信息的数据库。

Zillow is a database of houses.

Speaker 2

Uber 是一个车辆和乘客信息的数据库。

Uber is a database of cars and riders.

Speaker 2

YouTube 是一个视频内容的数据库。

YouTube is a database of videos.

Speaker 2

The Verge 的网站是一个新闻文章的数据库。

The Verge's website is a database of stories.

Speaker 2

这样的例子可以说数不胜数。

You can go on and on and on.

Speaker 2

一旦你开始把世界看作一堆数据库,接下来就会觉得,只要能掌控这些数据库,就能掌控整个世界。

Once you start seeing the world as a bunch of databases, it's a small jump to feeling like you can control the world if you can just control those databases.

Speaker 2

这方面的例子其实有不少。

There's some big examples of this.

Speaker 2

埃隆·马斯克和狗狗币相关团队进了政府部门之后,第一件事就是接手控制一大堆数据库。

Elon Musk and Doge showed up in the government, and the first thing they did was take control of a bunch of databases.

Speaker 2

结果他们很快发现这些数据库根本没法反映真实情况,最后狗狗币项目以一场荒唐的失败告终。

Then they ran into the fact that the databases didn't really reflect reality, and Doge ended in hilarious failure.

Speaker 2

这就是纯软件思维的局限性。

This is the limit of software brain.

Speaker 2

政府根本不只是一堆数据库的集合。

The government isn't just a bunch of databases.

Speaker 2

这事儿还不只是和软件有关。

It isn't just software.

Speaker 2

人不是计算机,更不会按照那些能被数据库完美记录的自动化流程活着。

People aren't computers, and they don't live in automatable loops that can be neatly captured in those databases.

Speaker 2

但凡真正运营过数据库的人,都明白这个道理。

Anyone who's ever actually run a database knows this.

Speaker 2

发展到某个阶段,数据库里记录的内容就会和现实脱节了。

At some point, the database stops matching reality.

Speaker 2

到了这个时候,我们通常不是去改变世界,而是去调整数据库。

And at that point, we usually end up tweaking the database, not the world.

Speaker 2

AI行业已经完全忘了这一点。

The AI industry has fully lost sight of this.

Speaker 2

AI靠数据生存。

AI thrives on data.

Speaker 2

归根结底,它就是一套软件。

It's just software after all.

Speaker 2

所以现在的要求是,我们得不断调整自己的生活去迎合数据库,而不是反过来。

And so the ask is for more and more of us to conform our lives to the database, not the other way around.

Speaker 2

软件思维的另一个方面——结构化语言,情况也一样。

It's the same with the other part of software brain, the use of structured language.

Speaker 2

我经常想到另一个例子,尤其是当AI真正成为商业工具的时候。

Let me use another example that I think about all the time, especially as AI finds a real fit as a business tool.

Speaker 2

AI正在冲击法律体系中的律师群体。

It's the idea that AI is coming for lawyers in the legal system.

Speaker 2

AI行业总爱说以后再也不需要律师了,这已经让不少人陷入麻烦。

The AI industry loves to talk about not needing lawyers anymore, which is already getting all kinds of people into all kinds of trouble.

Speaker 2

但我理解。

But I get it.

Speaker 2

我跟律师打过很多交道。

I've spent a lot of time with lawyers.

Speaker 2

我以前就是个律师。

I used to be a lawyer.

Speaker 2

我妻子现在还是律师。

My wife is still a lawyer.

Speaker 2

我几个最好的朋友都是律师。

Some of my best friends are lawyers.

Speaker 2

而我在工作中,整天都跟技术人打交道。

I also spend all of my time at work talking to tech people.

Speaker 2

所以时间久了,我发现软件思维和律师思维之间的共同点非常深,深得让人着迷。

And so over time, I've learned that the overlap between software brain and lawyer brain is very deep, alluringly deep.

Speaker 2

如果说程序员思维的核心是:用代码这种结构化语言思考,就能在现实世界推动事情落地。那律师思维的核心就是:用法条、判例引文这些结构化的法律语言思考,同样能成事。

If an important part of software brain is the idea that thinking in the structured language of code can make things happen in the real world, Well, the heart of lawyer brain is that thinking in the structured legal language of statutes and citations can also make things happen.

Speaker 2

甚至能帮你掌握对社会的影响力。

Well, it can give you power over society.

Speaker 2

我还能举出更多共同点。

I can keep going.

Speaker 2

软件开发和法律体系都非常依赖过往先例。

Both software development and the law depend heavily on precedent.

Speaker 2

美国有一套判例体系,我们会反复用这套体系来解决纠纷,这就和工程师会反复调用代码库来搭建产品的底层架构一模一样。

We have a body of case law in this country and we use it over and over again to help us resolve disputes, much like engineers have libraries of code that they turn to repeatedly to build the foundations of their products.

Speaker 2

其实说到底,我这个类比很好理解。

At the end of the day, I'm making a simple comparison here.

Speaker 2

无论是律师还是工程师,都会尽全力用严谨的结构化语言,引导复杂系统按照可预测、甚至能产生收益的方向运行。

Both lawyers and engineers do their best to use formal structured language to guide the behavior of complicated systems in predictable and potentially profitable ways.

Speaker 2

其实早就有人想到这一点了,我不是第一个提出这个想法的人。

I'm far from the first person with this idea.

Speaker 2

拉里·莱斯格在2000年写过一本叫《代码与网络空间的其他法律》的书。

Larry Lessig wrote a book called Code and Other Laws of Cyberspace in 2000.

Speaker 2

这本书今天读起来,和二十五年前一样有现实意义。

That book is just as relevant today as it was a quarter century ago.

Speaker 2

法律和代码之间这种令人着迷的相似性,常常让人误解,各种各样的误会层出不穷。

And so you have this intoxicating similarity between law and code, and it trips people up all the time in all kinds of ways.

Speaker 2

人们总想把社会当成一台电脑,直接下命令让它乖乖听话。

People are constantly trying to issue commands to society at large, like it's a computer that will obey instructions.

Speaker 2

我最常看到的例子就是那些在Facebook上疯传的消息,说扎克伯格没权利复制大家的照片。

My favorite example of this are those Facebook forwards insisting that Mark Zuckerberg doesn't have the right to copy people's photos.

Speaker 2

每次看到这种说法,我就想,要是法律真能像代码那样就好了。

Every time I see one of those, think to myself, it would be great if the law was actually code.

Speaker 2

那样的话,事情或许会更可预测一些。

Maybe things will be more predictable.

Speaker 2

也许我们每个人都会觉得更有掌控感。

Maybe we'd all feel more in control.

Speaker 2

但法律根本不是代码,社会和法院也不是电脑。

But the law isn't actually code, and society and courts aren't computers.

Speaker 2

我得提醒一下《Decoder》和《At The Verge》上那些技术背景的听众:法律并不总是确定无疑的。

I have to remind our fairly technical audience on Decoder and At The Verge that the law is not deterministic all the time.

Speaker 2

你不能光靠案件事实套用法条,就准确预测结果,尽管法律体系的正式外表让人误以为可以做到。

You cannot simply take the facts of a case, apply the law as written, and predict the outcome of that case with any real certainty even though the formality of the legal system makes people think they can.

Speaker 2

这种正式性让人以为法律像电脑一样可预测。

The formality makes people think the law works like a computer, that it's predictable.

Speaker 2

但事实上,我们的法律体系恰恰需要模糊性。

But in truth, our legal system actually requires ambiguity.

Speaker 2

正是这种模糊性,才让律师成了律师。

Ambiguity is what makes lawyers lawyers.

Speaker 2

也正是这种模糊性,让人讨厌律师。

It's what makes people hate lawyers.

Speaker 2

任何案件都总有另一面可以争辩,法律里也总能找到灰色地带。

It's always possible to argue the other side of a case, and it's always possible to find the gray area in the law.

Speaker 2

这就是为什么很多检察官后来会转去做辩护律师,为什么监管人员最后会去大企业任职。

That's why prosecutors end up as defense attorneys, and it's why our regulators end up working for big corporations.

Speaker 2

现在你就能明白,程序员的思维和律师的思维之间存在多么明显的冲突了。

So you can see the obvious collision between software brain and lawyer brain.

Speaker 2

法律表面上看起来和计算机程序差不多,本质上却完全不是一回事。

This thing that looks like a computer isn't anything at all like a computer.

Speaker 2

你当然可以说这是个问题,法律本应该更像计算机程序那样,整个体系得可验证、始终一致,只要在合适的时机发出正确的指令,就能得出客观公正的结果。

You can argue that this is a mistake, that the law should be more like a computer, that the system should be verifiable and consistent, and that merely issuing the right commands at the right time should lead to an objectively correct outcome.

Speaker 2

前密歇根州最高法院首席法官布里奇特·麦科马克几个月前上过《解码器》节目,当时她在推广一套全自动化的AI仲裁系统。

Bridget McCormack, who used to be the chief justice of the Michigan Supreme Court, came on to Decoder just a few months ago pitching a fully automated AI arbitration system.

Speaker 2

她跟我说,大家都觉得传统法律体系不够公平,反过来,如果他们觉得自己的声音被系统听见了,哪怕自动化系统给出的结果更差,他们也会觉得这个结果更公道。

Her argument to me was that people perceive the traditional legal system to be unfair, and they will accept a worse outcome from an automated system as more fair if they feel heard.

Speaker 2

要说AI能做到什么事的话,那就是它能没日没夜一直待在那儿听人说话。

And if there's one thing AI can do, it's sit there and listen all day and all night.

Speaker 2

我不知道这套说法对不对,甚至能不能行得通,但我太了解程序员的思维逻辑了,这完全就是程序员才会想出来的思路。

I don't know if any of that is correct or even workable, but I do know software brain, and that's pure software brain.

Speaker 2

我们总以为能强迫现实世界像计算机一样运行,再让AI去下达这些指令。

The idea that we can force the real world to act like a computer and then have AI issue that computer instructions.

Speaker 2

换个角度看,你会发现其他行业也在发生同样的事。

Zoom out and you can see the same thing happening in every other kind of industry.

Speaker 2

你请大型咨询公司,并不是真让他们来研究你的业务、帮你提升效率。

You don't hire a big consulting firm to actually come in and study your business and make it more efficient.

Speaker 2

你请他们,只是为了做出一堆幻灯片,好向董事会和股东证明裁员的合理性。

You hire them to generate slide decks that justify layoffs to your board and shareholders.

Speaker 2

大型咨询公司特别擅长这一套,而现在他们打算用AI来自动化这个活儿。

Big consulting firms are great at this, and now they're gonna automate that task.

Speaker 2

他们会用AI自动生成那些幻灯片。

They're gonna generate those decks with AI.

Speaker 2

他们已经在裁员了。

They're already doing layoffs.

Speaker 2

任何看起来像代码和数据库对话的重复性业务流程,都难逃被取代的命运。

Any repetitive business process that looks like code talking to a database is up for grabs.

Speaker 2

这就是为什么Anthropic一直如此专注于企业客户,也是为什么OpenAI正在转向商业应用。

That's why Anthropic has been so relentlessly focused on enterprise customers, and it's why OpenAI is pivoting to business use.

Speaker 2

把AI引入商业确实有实际价值,因为现代商业的很大一部分本来就是软件在不断收集数据、分析数据、然后循环执行操作。

There's real value in introducing AI to business because so much of modern business is already software, collecting data, analyzing it, and taking action on it over and over again in a loop.

Speaker 2

企业还掌握着自己的数据,能够要求所有数据库相互打通。

Businesses also control their data, and they can demand that all of their databases work together.

Speaker 2

长期以来,软件品牌一直主导着商业世界,而AI只是让越来越多的人更容易地开发出前所未有的软件,帮助各类企业自动化大量业务流程。

In this way, software brand has ruled the business world for a long time, and AI has just made it easier than ever for more people to make more software than ever before, for every kind of business to automate big chunks of itself with software.

Speaker 2

广告和营销领域最前沿的,就是用AI实现自动化。

The absolute cutting edge of advertising and marketing is automation with AI.

Speaker 2

这跟创意没关系。

It's not being creative.

Speaker 2

但并不是所有事情都属于商业范畴。

But not everything is business.

Speaker 2

不是所有事情都能用循环来概括,整个人类的经验也无法被塞进数据库里。

Not everything is a loop, and the entire human experience cannot be captured in a database.

Speaker 2

这就是软件思维的极限。

That's the limit of software brain.

Speaker 2

所以人们才讨厌AI。

That's why people hate AI.

Speaker 2

它把人变得扁平了。

It flattens them.

Speaker 2

普通人根本不会觉得写代码是什么机会。

Regular people don't see the opportunity to write code as an opportunity at all.

Speaker 2

人们并不渴望自动化。

The people do not yearn for automation.

Speaker 2

我是个十足的智能家居狂热者。

I'm a full on smart home sicko.

Speaker 2

这房子里的灯光、窗帘和温控系统有几十种自动化设置,但像苹果、谷歌和亚马逊这样的大公司,十几年来一直没法让普通人对智能家居感兴趣,他们就是不买账。

The lights and shades and climate controls of this house are automated in dozens of ways, But huge companies like Apple and Google and Amazon have struggled for over a decade now to make regular people care about smart home automation, and they just don't.

Speaker 2

AI也解决不了这个问题。

AI isn't gonna fix that.

Speaker 2

大多数人并不会记录自己每一件小事的细节。

Most people aren't collecting data about every single thing they do.

Speaker 2

就算有记录,也分散在各种不同的系统里。

And if they're collecting any at all, it's stored across lots of different systems.

Speaker 2

你的邮箱和Gmail,消息和iMessage,工作日程和Outlook,健身记录和Peloton,全都是分开的。

Your email and Gmail, your messages and iMessage, your work schedule and Outlook, your workouts and Peloton.

Speaker 2

这些系统彼此不通,而且很可能永远都不会互通,因为根本没这个必要。

Those systems don't talk to each other, and they maybe never will because there's no reason for them to.

Speaker 2

让人去把所有这些系统连起来,他们只会觉得压力山大。

And asking people to connect them all freaks them out.

Speaker 2

就连花时间想想自己的生活有多少被存进了数据库,都会让人不开心。

Even taking the time to consider how much of your life is captured in databases makes people unhappy.

Speaker 2

没人喜欢时刻被监视,尤其是那种让科技公司变得更强大的监视方式。

No one wants to be surveilled constantly, and especially not in a way that makes tech companies even more powerful.

Speaker 2

但把所有东西都塞进数据库,好让软件能看懂,这却是人工智能行业执念的东西。

But getting everything in a database so that software can see it is a preoccupation of the AI industry.

Speaker 2

所以现在所有的会议系统都内置了AI记笔记功能。

It's why all the meeting systems have AI note takers in them now.

Speaker 2

所以像Canva这样的设计工具,现在也开始连接企业邮箱系统了。

It's why Canva, which is a design software tool, now connects to corporate email systems.

Speaker 2

朋友埃兹拉·克莱因刚去了一趟硅谷,说那里的人正在拼命把自己变成数据库里的数据。

Friend, Ezra Klein, just went to Silicon Valley and described the people there as actively trying to flatten themselves into a database.

Speaker 2

他是这么说的:

Here's what he said.

Speaker 2

你可能会觉得,硅谷那些有钱有势的AI从业者现在风光无限。

Quote, you might think the AI types in Silicon Valley, flush with cash, are on top of the world right now.

Speaker 2

但我发现他们其实特别没有安全感。

I found them notably insecure.

Speaker 2

所以他们争先恐后地要把AI彻底融入自己的生活和公司里。

And so they are racing one another to fully integrate AI into their lives and into their companies.

Speaker 2

但这可不只是简单地用用AI那么简单。

But that doesn't just mean using AI.

Speaker 2

这意味着让自己变得让AI能理解。

It means making themselves legible to the AI.

Speaker 2

你可以让AI访问你所有的东西——文件、邮件、日历、聊天记录。

You can give it access to everything that's there, your files, your email, your calendar, your messages.

Speaker 2

你向AI开放的生活越多,AI就越有价值。

The more of your life you open to AI, the more valuable the AI becomes.

Speaker 2

过去十五年我评测过无数科技产品,说到底,强迫人去适应电脑,这从来都是一场失败。

I've reviewed a lot of tech products over the past decade and a half, and all I can tell you is that it is a failure when you ask people to adapt to computers.

Speaker 2

电脑应该去适应人,而不是反过来。

Computers should adapt to people.

Speaker 2

让人主动把自己变得更‘可读’,把自己变成数据库,这想法注定行不通。

Asking people to make themselves more legible to software, to turn themselves into a database is a doomed idea.

Speaker 2

这个代价太大了,我想象不出有什么回报能让人觉得值得。

It's an ad so big, I can't imagine a reward that would make it worth it for anyone.

Speaker 2

哪怕科技行业没整天嚷嚷着AI会夺走所有工作、要求彻底重写社会契约。

Even if tech industry wasn't constantly talking about how AI will eliminate all the jobs and require a wholesale rethinking of the social contract.

Speaker 2

而且搞不好,这些最新型号还会引发灾难性的网络安全事故,甚至可能把整个人类都拖入深渊。

And oops, also the latest models might cause catastrophic cybersecurity problems that might lead to the end of the world.

Speaker 2

你觉得这听着像一笔划算的买卖吗?

Does this sound like a good deal to you?

Speaker 2

靠营销能把这些问题都遮掩过去吗?

Can you market your way out of this?

Speaker 2

只有被软件思维驯化的人才会觉得这合理——也就是那种非要把所有东西都塞进数据库、用结构化语言牢牢掌控的思维模式才会认可这套逻辑。

This only makes sense if you have software brain, if your operative framework is to flatten everything into databases that you can control with structured language.

Speaker 2

那些每月花几千美元搭建OpenClaw智能代理集群、还编写几千行代码的人,本来就会从这个世界里挖掘自动化的机会——重复执行任务、收集数据、开发软件。

The people paying thousands of dollars a month to set up swarms of OpenClaw agents and write thousands of lines of code, they're people who look at the world and see opportunities for automation, to repeat tasks, to collect data, and build software.

Speaker 2

人工智能对他们来说确实非常好用。

AI is great for them.

Speaker 2

这项技术甚至有很多值得兴奋的突破,我认为这些突破意义重大,或许会彻底改变我们和电脑之间的交互模式。

It's even exciting in ways that I think are important and will probably change our relationship to computers forever.

Speaker 2

但对其他普通人来说,人工智能就像一台贪得无厌的老虎机,只会不断索取。

For everyone else, AI is just a demanding slot monster.

Speaker 2

这是一场威胁。

It's a threat.

Speaker 2

我不是说普通人不用Excel或Airtable来规划婚礼,或者不爱开PPT派对玩——长远来看,AI对他们也有用。

Look, I'm not saying regular people don't use Excel and Airtable to plan their weddings or have fun throwing PowerPoint parties even that AI won't be useful to people over time.

Speaker 2

我觉得很多人其实挺享受用数据记录生活各个方面的过程。

I think a lot of people enjoy data and tracking different parts of their lives.

Speaker 2

我就戴着一个Whoop手环。

There's my whoop band.

Speaker 2

我只是想说,这些玩意儿不是全部,我们的生活不可能全被量化、自动化和优化。

I'm just saying these things aren't everything, that not everything about our lives can be measured and automated and optimized.

Speaker 2

本来就不该是这样。

It shouldn't be.

Speaker 2

科技行业却在不顾一切地把AI塞进每个角落,耗费巨资、大量能源、碳排放、制造产能,甚至抢购内存,全都被困在‘软件思维’的狭隘框架里,却没意识到,他们其实是在要求人们变得越来越不像人。

And so the tech industry is rushing forward to put AI everywhere at enormous cost, energy, emissions, manufacturing capacity, the ability to buy RAM, locked into the narrow framework of software brain without realizing they are also asking people to be fundamentally less human.

Speaker 2

然后他们还纳闷,为啥人人都讨厌他们。

And then they're sitting around wondering why everyone hates them.

Speaker 2

我觉得理几次发解决不了问题。

I don't think a couple haircuts are gonna fix it.

Speaker 2

那是The Coder。

That's The Coder.

Speaker 2

谢谢收听。

Thank you for listening.

Speaker 2

希望你听得很开心。

I hope you enjoyed it.

Speaker 2

如果你对这期节目,或者任何其他内容有什么想法,欢迎给我们留言。

If you'd like to let us know what you thought about this episode or really anything else at all, drop us a line.

Speaker 2

你可以发邮件到 decoder@theverge.com。

You can email us at decoder@theverge.com.

Speaker 2

我们真的会看每一封邮件,你也可以直接在Threads或BlueSky上找我。

We really do read all the emails, or you can hang me up directly on threads or blue sky.

Speaker 2

如果你喜欢《Decoder》,别忘了分享给朋友,订阅一下,或者在播客平台收听。

If you like Decoder, please share it with your friends and subscribe or read your podcast.

Speaker 2

《Decoder》是由The Verge制作,属于Vox Media播客网络的一部分。

Decoder is a production verge, part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.

Speaker 2

我们下次再见。

We'll see you next time.

Speaker 7

本节目由Hostinger赞助支持。

Support for the show comes from Hostinger.

Speaker 7

你有没有过什么商业点子或副业想法,却一直没付诸行动?

Ever had an idea for a business or side hustle but never actually launched it?

Speaker 7

有了Hostinger,你几分钟内就能把想法变成现实,不用等上几周。

With Hostinger, you can turn that idea into something real in minutes instead of weeks.

Speaker 7

Hostinger是一个一体化平台,把所有工具都整合在一处。

Hostinger is an all in one platform that brings everything into one place.

Speaker 7

你的域名、网站、邮件营销、AI工具和AI助手,全在这里。

Your domain, website, email marketing, AI tools, and AI agents.

Speaker 7

只需简单输入指令,就能创建网站、在线商店和定制应用。

You can create websites, online stores, and custom apps with simple prompts.

Speaker 7

然后还可以用AI智能体自动处理那些繁琐的事务,帮你把业务做大。

Then use AI agents to automate tedious tasks and grow your business.

Speaker 7

访问hostinger.com/vox,每月只要不到3美元,就能把你的创意落地成线上项目。

Go to hostinger.com/vox to bring your idea online for under $3 a month.

Speaker 7

另外,输入优惠码Vox还能再享受八折优惠。

Plus, get an extra 20% off with promo code Vox.

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