041 factor investing, it's all the rage!

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This podcast is brought to you by Sphere Home Loans.

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Whether you're a first time home buyer, seasoned investor, or looking to leverage your property's equity, Sphere Home Loans is here to help.

他们专业的按揭经纪人团队会全程陪伴您，从为您找到最合适的贷款方案，一直到最终交割。

Their dedicated team of mortgage brokers can guide you through the process from finding the most appropriate loan for you through to settlement.

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Sphere has worked with various medical and other professionals just like you all over Australia.

请点击节目说明中的链接，或搜索‘Sphere房屋贷款’，立即联系他们的团队。

Just click the link in the show notes or search Sphere Home Loans to speak with the team today.

大家好，欢迎收听《Dev Raga个人理财》第41期。

Hi everyone and welcome to Dev Raga Personal Finance Episode 41.

在本期节目中，我们将探讨一种名为因子投资的投资策略。

In this episode we'll discuss a particular investment strategy called factor investing.

最近这可是特别热门的话题。

It seems to be all the rage these days.

但在深入正题之前，我们先回顾一下这个频道的一些核心理念。

But before we delve into the main topic, let's reiterate some of the mottos of this channel.

这个频道的基本宗旨，是帮你提升财商，让你能把基础的理财概念和原则用到自己的生活中。

The basic premise of this channel is to get you financially educated so that you can apply basic financial concepts and principles in your own personal finance.

我们会聊储蓄、还债策略、预算管理，还有投资方法。

We talk about saving, debt reduction strategies, budgeting strategies and investing strategies.

但所有这些的核心，都是‘先付自己’这个原则。

But the whole plan is revolving around the pay yourself first concept.

我觉得，只要你把税后收入的20%定期存下来，长期投资，每个月、每年，或者按你设定的周期自动投入，再把分红再投资，你很可能会在退休时变得非常富有，甚至超过你曾经敢想的财富水平。

I feel that if you take 20% of your after tax money and put it away and invest it for the long term and repeat the investments and automate them every month or every year or whatever timeframe cycle that you want and reinvest the dividends, you're likely to retire wealthy, probably having more wealth than what you imagined you will ever have.

这个频道专注的是长期投资，而不是短期操作。

The focus of this channel is long term investing, not short term.

所谓长期，我指的是至少二十年、三十年，甚至四十年，持续再投资这些投资产生的分红。

And by long term, I'm meaning at least twenty, thirty or forty years and reinvesting the dividends that those investments yield.

这样你就能充分受益于复利的长期威力。

Therefore you can take advantage and the power of long term compounding.

好了，言归正传，什么是因子投资？

So to the main topic, what is factor investing?

这个概念虽然一直存在，但最近几年才真正火起来。

This concept has gained popularity slowly and is all the rage these days, but more popular in recent times.

那它到底是什么呢？

So what exactly is it?

在投资领域，我们之前聊过各种具体的投资策略。

In investing, we've talked about various types of specific investing strategies.

比如主动投资、被动投资，指数基金和ETF的区别，选股和共同基金的差异。

Active investing, passive investing, index funds versus ETFs, stock picking versus mutual funds.

但投资时还有一些关键因素值得特别关注。

But there are specific factors to consider when investing.

这种投资方式就叫因子投资。

So this is called factor investing.

它是一种通过瞄准不同资产类别中特定收益驱动因素来进行投资的方法。

It's an investment approach that involves targeting specific drivers of returns across asset classes.

过去，人们只考虑一个因素，就是波动风险，但实际上投资时还有更多因素值得关注。

In the past, people only considered one factor, that is risk of volatility, but there are more factors to consider when investing.

比如在被动投资中，像我这种指数投资，主要看的是跟踪大盘指数，而大盘指数是按市值加权的，这本身就是其中一个因素。

In another example, the biggest factor people take into account when investing passively for example, that is me index investing, is following the broad stock market index which follows market capitalisation, which is one of the factors to consider.

但除此之外，还有其他因素，比如宏观经济因素和风格因子。

But there are other factors to consider such as macro economic factors and style factors.

我们稍后在本期播客里会更深入地讲这些内容。

We'll go into that in a little bit more in-depth later in the podcast episode.

因子投资还有个名字，你可能听说过，叫Smart Beta。

The other name for factor investing which you may have come across is called smart beta.

最近这几年，你可能已经听到过这个说法了。

You might have come across this in recent times.

如果你去看《Money Week》在YouTube上的视频，他们也经常提到这个概念。

If you look at Money Week videos, they talk about it as well on YouTube.

如果你能理解并更好地把握宏观经济和风格因子，就有可能获得超越大盘或普通指数的回报。

If you can understand macroeconomic and style factors and better capture them, it may mean that you can achieve better market returns when compared to the broad market or general index returns.

因子投资的根本目的，不是为了跟市场收益持平，因为你用指数投资早就能做到这一点了。

So the whole point of factor investing is not to match the market returns because you're going to do that with index investing anyway.

因子投资的核心，是抓住市场中的特定因子，投资那些体现这些因子的资产或基金，从而跑赢市场收益。

The whole point of factor investing is to capture specific factors in the market and invest in those factors or those funds that exhibit those factors such that your returns exceed the market returns.

这才是关键所在。

That's the whole point.

那投资时有哪些因子值得考虑呢？

So what are some of the factors to consider when investing?

影响投资回报的因子有成百上千个之多。

There are hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of factors which can impact investing returns.

比如宏观因子，它涵盖各类资产的整体风险，像股票风险高、债券风险低这类情况；而风格因子则用于解释同一类资产内部的风险与回报差异。

So macro economic factors which captures the broad risks across asset classes stocks being high risk, bonds being lower risk for example, or style factors aims to explain the risk and return within specific asset classes.

宏观因子的例子包括信贷、通胀和流动性。

So some examples of macroeconomic factors include credit, inflation and liquidity.

风格因子的例子则有价值因子和动量因子。

And some examples of style factors include value and momentum.

作为投资者，如果你能调整投资组合，偏向某些特定因子来获取市场回报，理论上就能获得超越市场的收益。

So as an investor, if you could tilt your investments towards specific factors to drive market returns, then theoretically, you will achieve a higher than market return.

这跟主动投资和选股完全是两回事。

This is very different to active investing and stock picking.

别把因子投资跟主动投资搞混了。

So don't confuse factor investing with active investing.

两者根本不一样。

It's totally different.

比如，你可以被动地投资于某个带有特定因子的指数基金。

For example, you may passively invest in an index fund which has a specific factor to it.

所以别以为因子投资就一定是主动投资。

So don't confuse factor investing to always being active investing.

它确实包含一些主动成分，但也可以是一种被动投资策略。

There are active elements to it, but it can be a passive investing strategy.

再强调一遍：作为投资者，如果你能调整投资组合，偏向某些因子来获取市场回报，理论上就能获得超越市场的收益。

So just to reiterate what it is, it's basically as an investor if you could tilt your investments towards certain factors to drive market returns, then theoretically you will achieve a higher than market returns.

所以你不是在跟市场收益看齐，而是想在长期中超越市场。

Therefore, you're not matching the market returns, you're actually trying to beat the market in the long run.

那因子投资的历史是怎么来的呢？

So what's the history behind factor investing?

在有关因子影响证券收益的研究出现之前，主流理论一直是资本资产定价模型。

Prior to research showing evidence of factors affecting the return of securities and capital asset pricing model was the main theory in operation.

这个模型由比尔·夏普提出，主要只考虑了一个因素：波动性和风险。

It was theorised by Bill Sharpe and basically it took into account just one factor volatility and risk.

那资本资产定价模型到底是什么？

So what is the capital asset pricing model?

它解释的是系统性风险与资产预期收益之间的关系，尤其是股票方面。

Well it explains the relationship between systemic risk and expected return of assets particularly with relation to stocks.

这个公式挺复杂的，如果你感兴趣，可以在投资者说明书或者其他投资论坛里找到详细讨论，适合那些技术控。

This is a complex formula for this and if you're interested it's discussed in investor PDS and other investment forums for those geeks out there.

但简单说，这个公式的目的就是判断一只股票的价格是否合理，要看它的风险和资金的时间价值，跟预期收益相比怎么样。

But basically the aim of the formula is to evaluate whether a stock is fairly valued when its risk and time value of that money as compared to its expected returns.

接下来你需要去了解一下风险的概念，还要好好学学时间价值的概念。

Now you need to go ahead and read up on the concept of risk and you need to go ahead and read up on the concept of time value of money.

这些概念都很重要，得弄明白。

These are important concepts to understand.

详细讲这些可能超出了这个播客的范围，但如果你有兴趣，还是值得花点时间去读一读、学一学。

It's probably a little bit beyond this podcast channel to go into that in detail, but I think it's worthwhile reading about it and learning about it if you can.

投资者经常提到某个投资的贝塔值。

Investors often talk about the beta for an investment.

那贝塔值到底是什么？

So what is a beta?

一只股票的贝塔值，衡量的是它给一个类似大盘的投资组合带来多少额外风险。

A stock's beta is measure of how much risk the investment will add to a portfolio that looks like the market.

如果一只股票比市场整体风险更高，它的贝塔值就大于1。

So if a stock is riskier than the market, the beta is greater than one.

如果它比市场风险更低，贝塔值就小于1，抱歉，我刚才说反了。

If it's less riskier than the market, then the beta is less than one, beg your pardon.

所以，贝塔值小于一的股票，加入投资组合后会降低整体风险，因为它本身的波动比市场更低。

So a beta less than one will reduce the risk of the overall portfolio as the stock which is added to the portfolio has a risk less than the market.

让我总结一下。

So let me summarise.

如果你有一个投资组合，想降低它的风险，方法就是买一只贝塔值低于一的股票，把它加进组合里，这样整个组合的风险就会下降。

Supposing you have a portfolio and you want to reduce the risk of that portfolio, the way to do that is to buy a stock with a beta of less than one and you add that stock to the portfolio so that the overall portfolio risk is reduced.

资本资产定价模型的好处就在于，它能帮助投资者在构建投资组合时，把风险因素考虑进去。

So the advantage of the capital asset pricing model is that it enables investors to price in risk when building their portfolio.

听起来是不是很熟悉？

Does this sound familiar?

是的，没错。

Well, yes.

当然了。

Of course.

其实我们以前聊过这个，大概是我刚开始做播客那会儿，去年吧，只是换了个说法。

We've kind of already discussed this in another way way back when I started podcasting probably last year, I think it was.

换句话说，如果资本资产定价模型能让投资者在承担风险的前提下优化投资回报，那么这些投资组合就会落在有效前沿曲线上。

In other words, if the CAPM, that is the capital asset pricing model, enables the investors to optimise their portfolio return relative to risk, it'll be plotted on the efficient frontier curve.

我以前的播客里已经提到过这个了。

You've heard me talk about this in previous podcasts.

那什么是有效前沿曲线？或者说，有效前沿的核心到底是什么？

Now, what is the efficient frontier curve or what is the crux of the efficient market frontier?

这条曲线的形状其实像一个镜像的字母C。

The curve is actually shaped like a mirror image C.

这时候，我建议你边听我说，边去网上搜一下这张图看看。

And at this point, it's probably worthwhile Googling this and having a look at the curve as you listen to me talk about this.

当然，如果你正在开车，就别这么做了。

If you're driving, of course, don't do that.

在这条镜像C形曲线上，有一个理想点，在那里，你用最低的风险获得了最大的收益。

So there is an ideal point on that mirror image C curve where the relative risk is lowest for the highest gain.

而一旦超过某个点，往曲线右边走，就意味着你在为有限的回报承担不必要的额外风险。

And anything right of the curve beyond a certain point means you are unnecessarily taking on more risk than what is needed for limited gains.

我们现在稍微跑题了，但自从资本资产定价模型提出以来，陆续出现了新的证据。

Now we are digressing a little bit, but since the capital asset pricing model was established, evidence has emerged.

除了波动性风险之外，还有很多其他因素会影响股票收益。

There are plenty of other factors that impact stock returns in addition to just risk of volatility.

1981年，罗思·班克斯发现了股票的规模溢价现象。

In 1981, Roth Banks established a size premium of stocks.

也就是说，他指出，小公司股票在长期表现上优于大公司股票。

That is, he said that smaller company stocks outperform larger companies over long periods.

1992年，尤金·法玛和肯尼斯·弗伦奇发表了一篇论文，证明了价值溢价的存在——长期来看，价值股的回报高于成长股。

In '92, Eugene Fama and Kenneth French published a paper which demonstrated a value premium, that is returns of value stocks is higher in the long term than for growth stocks.

那你猜猜，世界上谁是最顶尖的价值投资者？

Now guess who's the world's best value investor?

当然是沃伦·巴菲特。

Warren Buffett of course.

他一直都在谈论这个话题。

He talks about this all the time.

他是价值投资之父。

He is the father of value investing.

1993年，谢里丹·蒂特曼和纳拉西姆汉·达加迪什发现，投资高动量股票能获得超额回报。

In 1993, Sheridan Tittmann and Narasimhan Dagadish was a premium return for people to invest in high momentum stocks.

我们来看看因子投资的基础，也就是投资时应该考虑的基本因子。

So let's look at the foundations of factor investing that is the basic factors which should be considered when investing.

价值。

Value.

价值投资旨在捕捉那些价格低于其基本面价值的股票所带来的超额收益。

Value aims to capture excess returns from stocks that have low prices relative to their fundamental value.

通常用市净率、市盈率、股息和自由现金流来衡量。

This is commonly tracked by price to book, price to earnings, dividends and free cash flow.

换句话说，选股时，如果你挑了一只你认为未来会增长、但当前价格还很低的股票，这就叫价值投资。

In other words, when you're stock picking, if you pick a stock that you think is going to grow over time and the current price of that stock is quite low, then that's called value investing.

规模是第二个因子。

Size is a second factor.

历史上，小盘股投资组合的回报通常高于只投资大盘股的组合。

Historically, portfolios consisting of small cap stocks exhibit greater returns than portfolios with just large cap stocks.

投资者可以通过股票的市值来捕捉规模效应。

Investors can capture size by looking at the market capitalisation of a stock.

比如你看看指数投资，想投资澳洲标普200指数——这是澳洲最大的指数，那你实际上就是在做市值因子投资，因为这个指数只包含澳大利亚股市中规模最大的200家公司。

So if you have a look at index investing for example and you want to invest in the ASX 200, which is the biggest index in Australia, then essentially your factor investing is market capitalization because that index is based on the biggest companies or the 200 companies in the Australian stock market.

第三个你可能要考虑的因素是动量。

The third factor that you might want to consider is momentum.

过去表现优异的股票，往往在未来继续表现出强劲的回报。

Stocks that have outperformed in the past tend to exhibit strong returns going forward.

动量策略通常基于过去三个月到一年的相对收益来判断。

A momentum strategy is grounded in relative returns from three months to a one year timeframe.

所以你这里关注的是更短期的投资机会。

So you're looking at more sort of short term investing there.

正如你所知，我又在做短期投资。

And as you know, I'm again short term investing.

我不是为了三五个月或一年去投资的。

I do not invest for three months or one year.

我投资的最短周期至少是二三十年，甚至四十年。

The minimum timeframe that I'm investing for is twenty, thirty or forty years.

第四个你可能要考虑的因素是质量。

The fourth factor that you might want to consider is quality.

质量体现在低负债、稳定的盈利、持续的资产增长和良好的公司治理。

Quality is defined by low debt, stable earnings, consistent asset growth and strong corporate governance.

投资者可以通过净资产收益率、资产负债率和盈利波动性这些常见财务指标来识别优质股票。

Investors can identify quality stocks by using common financial metrics like return to equity, debt to equity and earnings variability.

第五种因子投资方法是波动性。

And the fifth method of factor investing is volatility.

这一点我们其实都知道。

Now we know this already.

实证研究显示，低波动性的股票在风险调整后的收益上，往往优于高波动性的资产。

Empirical research suggests that stocks with low volatility earn greater risk adjusted returns than highly volatile assets.

用一到三年的标准差来衡量，是捕捉贝塔风险的常见方法。

Measuring standard deviation from one to three year timeframe is a common method of capturing beta, which is the risk.

这些只是其中一些因素，但投资时最值得关注的大概就是这些了。

Now these are just some of the factors, they are probably the main factors to consider when investing.

实际上，可供选择的因素有成百上千个。

In fact, there are hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of factors to choose from.

把股息收益率作为关注点，是一种投资策略。

Focusing on dividend yield as a factor is an investing strategy.

关注质量——也就是公司的资产负债表——以及其他因素，都是需要考虑的。

Focusing on quality which is essentially the balance sheet of a company and others are factors to consider.

成本也是一个重要因素，如果你真感兴趣，可以一个个去研究，看看哪些因素会影响股票收益。

Cost is also a factor to consider and if you're really interested you can sift through them individually to identify what factors affect the returns of the stocks.

做这件事，你得准备好花大量时间。

Be prepared to have a lot of time to do that.

那么，因子投资和简单的指数基金被动投资策略，到底有什么不同呢？

So how is factor investing different to simple index fund passive investing strategy?

不一样，因为指数投资就是直接投资整个股市。

Well, it's different because in index investing, you simply invest in the whole stock market.

主要依据是市值，你的资金会自动按交易所里各只股票的比重来分配。

The main factor is market capitalization, and your investment is automatically divvied up based on the stocks listed in the exchange.

另一个关键区别是，因子投资更常使用ETF，而指数投资则更多依赖共同基金和指数基金。

The other main difference is factor investing to be more with ETFs more often as opposed to index investing, which is more mutual funds and index funds.

因子投资的核心目标不是跑平市场，而是要超越市场回报。

The other main difference is with factor investing, the aim is not to match the market, but to exceed the returns of the market.

如果只是想跟市场持平，那就失去意义了。

If you were to only match the market, it defeats the purpose.

那我们再回头看看，因子投资和简单的指数基金被动投资策略到底有什么不同。

So, let's revisit how is factor investing different to simple index fund passive investing strategies.

不一样，因为指数基金本质上就是投资整个股市。

It's different because in index fund, you're basically investing in the whole stock market.

另一个区别是，指数基金主要以共同基金为主，而不是ETF。

The other difference is in index funds, mostly it's about mutual funds as opposed to ETFs.

最后，在指数基金投资中，你的目标是跟上市场回报。

And lastly, in index fund investing, you're trying to match the market returns.

比如我提到的澳洲标普200指数，和因子投资不同，后者的目标是跑赢市场。

I'm talking about the ASX 200 index, for example, as opposed to factor investing, you're trying to beat the market.

如果你做因子投资，而市场上没有现成的共同基金或专门机构提供这种策略，那费用通常会高一点。

So when you do factor investing and there aren't mutual funds or specific investment firms that offer this type of investing strategy, you can expect the fees to be slightly higher.

不过，现在有不少公司提供的收费结构已经很有竞争力了。

Although there are many companies out there that offer competitive fee structures.

所以，先仔细看看各种收费结构，确保自己真正理解了，再深入考虑因子投资这回事。

So have a look at the fee structures and make sure that you understand the fee structures before delving into this factor investing mantra.

因子投资还要求投资者有长远的眼光。

Factor investing expects the investor to play the long game as well.

所以，别太在意短期波动，这反而是好事。

So that's good and not worry about the short term.

投资这件事，你得准备至少十年，甚至更久。

So you're looking at about ten years or longer when it comes to investing.

如果你觉得未来十年内需要用到这笔钱，那因子投资可能并不适合你。

If you think you're going to need money in less than ten years, then factor investing is probably not the right thing for you.

总结一下，因子投资到底是什么？

So in summary, what is factor investing?

这个概念其实很简单：风险本身不应该是你投资策略中唯一的考量。

The concept is simple, that is that the risk alone should not be the only factor in your investing armour.

我说的风险，指的是波动性。

When I say risk, I'm talking about volatility.

你还需要考虑其他影响市场回报的因素。

You need to consider other factors which affect market returns.

贝塔值衡量的是一只股票的风险。

Beta is the risk of a stock.

如果你从零风险开始，往投资组合里加入一只贝塔值大于1的股票，那你的整体风险就会增加。

So if you start off with zero risk and add a stock to your portfolio with a beta of greater than one, it means it will make your portfolio riskier.

所以尽量找贝塔值低于1的股票，而不是高于1的。

So try and identify stocks with a beta less than one, not greater than one.

第三点。

Number three.

因子投资是对资本资产定价模型的演进，与有效前沿曲线密切相关。

Factor investing is an evolution of capital async pricing module and is linked to efficient frontier curves.

对那些喜欢深究的朋友，不妨去深入了解CAPM和有效前沿。

Now for you geeks out there, go ahead and learn more about the CAPM and the efficient frontier.

第四点，如果你坚持使用价值、规模、动量、质量和波动性这些基本因子，就更有可能找到能长期提升投资组合收益的股票。

Number four If you stick to basic factors such as value, size, momentum, quality and volatility, then you are likely to find stocks with favourable factors which enhance your portfolio returns over the long term.

第五点。

Number five.

这和主动投资或选股并不一样，但确实能看出一些相似之处。

This is not the same as active investing or stock picking, but I can see some resemblance to it.

那么从个人角度来说，我会做因子投资吗？

So on a personal level, do I do factor investing?

严格来说会，因为我做指数投资，而指数投资本身就是我选股时看重的一个因子。

Well, technically yes, because I index invest, which is a specific factor I look for when investing.

但总的来说，我并不做因子投资。

But for the large part, I don't factor invest.

我不选股。

I don't stock pick.

我不会去分析具体公司的某个因子，想靠这个跑赢市场。

I don't look at specific individual factors of companies or stocks to try and, you know, try and beat the market.

我对市场的回报已经很满意了。

I am happy with the market returns.

我觉得过去五十年，标普澳大利亚200指数的回报率一直是最高的，平均每年大约九到九点五个百分点，甚至更高。

I'm happy that over the historical period of the ASX 200, it's consistently returned the best out of all the asset classes, about nine or nine and a half percent, if not more over the last fifty years.

所以我对这个结果挺满意的。

So I'm reasonably happy with that.

我不想刻意去超越它，因为任何因子选股都有可能跑输大盘。

I don't want to beat that because any factored stock may underperform the broad market.

投资里没有什么是 guaranteed 的。

So nothing is guaranteed in investing.

天下没有白吃的午餐。

There is no free lunch.

这是因为我们无法预测未来。

This is because we can't predict the future.

所以别信那些说自己能做到的人。

So don't believe anyone who says they can.

那因子投资是白吃的午餐吗？

So is factor investing a free lunch?

正如我所说，不是。

As I said, no.

投资里根本不存在这种事。

There is no such thing in investing.

根本没有什么白吃的午餐。

There is no such free lunch.

因子投资不是白吃的午餐，也不是什么速成方案。

Factor investing is not a free lunch, neither is factor investing a quick fix.

它自有其风险，但相比以往的投资理论，它能显著提升投资成功的概率。

It comes with its own set of risks and it's a meaningful incremental improvement over previous investment theories that increases the odds of a successful investment experience.

在那之前，这个财经播客频道的座右铭是什么？

Now until next time, what's the motto of this financial podcast channel?

先给自己付钱，目标是拿出税后收入的百分之二十，拿去投资，再把分红继续投入，然后不断重复这个过程。

Pay yourself first, aim for that 20% of your after tax income, invest it, reinvest the dividends and repeat the steps.

感谢所有在主页留言、私信，还有这个应用里提问的朋友们。

Now thank you for all the people that have commented and have questions on the face page and on private messaging and also on this app.

如果有什么疑问，随时欢迎找我。

Don't hesitate to contact me if you have any questions.

我会尽力尽快回复你。

I will do my best to get back to you as soon as possible.

如果我没立刻回你，大概是因为我工作太忙，正抓紧时间补觉。

And if I don't get back to you immediately, it's probably because I'm trying to get some sleep with my intense work schedule.

最近工作真的忙得不可开交。

It's just been absolutely crazy with my work at the moment.

顺便提醒一下，我不是金融顾问，我的播客只是为了普及个人理财的基本原则，真心希望对大家有帮助。

And just a reminder, I'm not a financial advisor and my podcasts are aimed to educate the principles of personal finance and I really hope you find them useful.

接下来是《Dev Raga个人理财》第41期，主题是因子投资。

So this is Dev Raga Personal Finance episode number 41 talking about factor investing.

咱们下期再见，注意安全。

Until next time, stay safe.

说到钱，信任最重要。

When it comes to your money, trust matters.

Life Sherpa投资组合由Open Invest托管，受监管、有审计，并且基于十年管理普通人真实资金的经验。

Life Sherpa Invest Portfolios are hosted by Open Invest, regulated, audited, and backed by a decade of experience managing real people's real money.

不花哨。

It's not flashy.

就是稳当。

It's just solid.

放心投资。

Invest with confidence.

现在就登录 lifesherpa.com.au/invest，用5000元开始投资吧。

Invest from 5,000 today at lifesherpa.com.au/invest.