莎拉·佩恩——帝国日本如何击败沙皇俄国与清朝中国

想想看。

Think about it.

这场战争中最关键的因素之一，毫无疑问，对俄罗斯来说绝对是铁路运输。

One of the most important factors in this war, bar none, certainly for Russia, is railways.

我在这里面没看到有R（铁路）或其他相关的东西。

I don't see an r in there or anything.

所以无论如何，这比只考虑军事因素要好，但它并不全面。

So by all means, this is better than only looking at military factors, but it's incomplete.

YouTube短视频对我们来说是一个极佳的工具，能为主访谈带来新观众。

YouTube shorts have been a really great tool for us for bringing new viewers to our main interviews.

例如，当嘉宾谈论历史事件时，我们会截取对话片段，配上真实档案影像使其生动呈现。

For example, if a guest is talking about a historical event, we'll take a snippet of conversation and then just use the real archival footage to bring it to life.

但当他们深入探讨假设性情境时，这些内容往往难以具象化。

But when they dive into hypothetical situations, that can be hard to visualize.

比如我最近采访斯蒂芬·科特金时，他讲到斯大林时期两个苏联同谋者之间的假想对话。

For example, I recently interviewed Stephen Kotkin about Joseph Stalin, and Kotkin started this hypothetical dialogue between two Soviet era co conspirators.

我来找你，我说这个斯大林，他正在毁坏一切。

And I come to you and I say, this Stalin guy, he's wrecking everything.

我们希望能让你感觉就像真的置身于那个场景中一样。

We wanted to feel like you were really there in the room while this was happening.

所以我们生成了一张苏联官员的图片，并提示Google的VO3让他说出考金斯的台词。

So we generated a picture of a Soviet official, and we prompted Google's VO3 to have him say Cawkins' line.

这个斯大林。

This Stalin guy.

他把一切都搞砸了。

He's wrecking everything.

这真的是一次性完成的。

This was literally a one shot.

它完美处理了一切，包括停顿。

It handled everything perfectly, including the pause.

于是我们把视频剪辑进去，并让口型与考金的台词同步。

So we edited the video in and lip synced it to Cawkin's line.

我来找你，我说，这个斯大林，他正在毁掉一切。

And I come to you and I say, this Stalin guy, he's wrecking everything.

我们必须除掉他。

We gotta take him down.

在Gemini应用上试用VO3，选择Google的AI专业计划，或通过Ultra计划获得最高权限。

Try VO three on the Gemini app with Google's AI Pro plan or get the highest access with the Ultra plan.

立即在gemini.google注册。

Sign up at gemini.google.

好的。

Okay.

回到莎拉这边。

Back to Sarah.

我已经谈过日本的西化进程，也讨论过他们对大战略的精通。

So I've talked about Japan's westernization, and I've talked about its mastery of grand strategy.

现在我要讲第三个他们如何颠覆力量平衡的原因。

And now here's my third reason of how they how they overturned the balance of power.

这与日俄战争中将胜利顶点固定有关。

And it has to do with pegging the culminating point of victory in the Russo Japanese War.

现在插播广告，我要介绍一些术语，包括攻击顶点和胜利顶点。

And now for a commercial break, I'm gonna give you some terminology, which are commoning point of attack, commoning point of victory.

它们是不同的。

They're different.

攻击顶点是一个作战术语。

Commoning point of attack is an operational term.

如果你未能达到攻击顶点，意味着你本可以推进得更远。

If you do not reach your culminating point of attack, it means you could have gone further.

攻击顶点适用于单场战斗或一系列战斗（即战役）。

And it applies the culminating point of attack applies to a single battle or a set of battles, which would be called a campaign.

如果在战斗中推进不足，你本可以夺取更多领土或达成更多目标。

So if you don't go far enough in your battle, you could have taken more territory, whatever it was you were after.

如果推进过深——想象你正在深入某片领土腹地。

If you go too far so imagine you're going deep into whatever territory it is.

你的战线正不断拉长。

Your lines are ever more extended.

敌方的战线可能正在缩短。

Your enemy's lines are probably being shortened.

你的补给问题正日益恶化。

Your supply problems are getting worse.

他们的状况可能正在好转。

Theirs might be getting better.

若你推进过远，敌人将发起反击，这会导致你比谨慎推进时溃退得更远。

If you go way too far, your enemy will launch a counterattack that will send you much further backwards than if you'd been a little more cautious about how far you went.

因此这是个作战术语。

So that's an operational term.

战略术语称为胜利顶点，它关乎这场战争的核心目标。

The strategic term is a commoning point of victory, and it concerns the objective for which the war was fought.

日本发动这场战争是为了捍卫其主权。

Japan's fighting this war in order to protect its sovereignty.

他们为此派出了强大的力量。

They come a great power to do that.

如果行动不够深入，未能达到顶点，你本可以获得更大的战果。

If you don't go far enough and if you don't reach your culminating point, you could have gotten greater winnings.

如果行动过于深入，通常会导致第三方介入干预。

If you go too far, typically what'll happen is you will trigger a third party intervention.

而在第三方加入战局前可能实现的目标，之后或许就无法达成了。

And what may have been feasible before that third party joined the party may no longer be.

这就是这个术语的核心意义。

So this is the point of the terminology.

好了，商业级讨论结束，我们开始讲日俄战争吧。

Oh, commercial grade is over, and let's get going on Russo Japanese war.

这里有一张很好的地图。

Here's a nice map of it.

战争始于日本对旅顺港（现代名称，显然这是传统叫法）的突袭。

So it starts out with a Japanese surprise attack on Port Arthur, Lucian, modern name, obviously, traditional name.

它位于辽东半岛上。

It's on the Liaodong Peninsula.

这是俄国的主要基地。

This is the main Russian base.

日军必须击沉那些港内的军舰，最好能彻底摧毁，因为如果俄海军出动，他们的补给线将面临危险。

The Japanese have to get those ships in base and sink them even better because their supply lines are in danger if that navy's out and about.

同时，他们在朝鲜登陆了一支军队，准备向西北进军满洲。

Simultaneously, they land an army in Korea that's gonna go northwest into Manchuria.

如果你看铁路线，它会从旅顺一直延伸到哈尔滨。

And if you look at the railway line, it goes Port Arthur all the way to Harbin up there.

那是西伯利亚大铁路的东西交汇点。

That's the East West junction of the Trans Siberian Railway.

在那个时候，它被称为中东铁路。

In those days, that's the Chinese Eastern Railway.

我只列举了几场主要战役。

And I've only listed a couple of the major battles.

但基本上，日军是沿着铁路系统从旅顺口向上推进，并攻占了辽阳和奉天。

But basically, it's going up the railway system from Port Arthur upward, and you got the Laoyang and Muk down.

直到战争末期，日本才组建第五军，此前他们只有四个军团。

And Japan has got only four armies until the very end of the war when it gets a fifth.

只要旅顺口还有军舰，就必须留一个军团在那里进行围困。

And one army, as long as Port Arthur has ships in it, it has to be stuck there besieging it.

日本在这场战争中的制胜理论是要打一场歼灭战。

And Japan's theory of victory in this thing is to have an annihilating battle.

这正是俾斯麦在苏丹战役中对法国采取的策略。

That's what Bismarck had done to the French in the Battle of Sudan.

因此日本亟需将围困旅顺的军团调出，以便集中兵力应对其他战役。

And so the Japanese really need to get that army out of Port Arthur so that it can concentrate on these other battles.

实际情况是俄军虽屡战屡败，却能有条不紊地向北撤退，不断拉长日军的补给线。

What happens is Russia keeps losing the battles, but it has an orderly retreat moving ever further northward, extending Japanese lines.

以上就是战争概况的概述，这样你们就能理解后续讨论的背景了。

So that's an overview of how the war goes so you can orient the rest of the conversation here.

如果你观察日本在甲午战争和日俄战争中的入侵路线，会发现它们惊人地相似，因为地理环境始终未变。

If you look at the invasion routes that Japan uses in the First Sino Japanese War and the Russo Japanese War, they're remarkably similar because guess what?

地理环境没有改变。

The geography hasn't changed.

因此，若想将军队投送至目标区域，很可能必须采取相似的路线。

And so if you wanna send an army in to desired locations, it may well have to take similar routes.

英国、法国、美国及日本都曾深入研究过第一次中日战争。

And the British, the French, the Americans, Japanese had studied very carefully the first Sona Japanese war.

但显然俄国人没在这上面浪费时间，因为实际情况是——

But apparently, the Russians didn't waste their time on it because here's what's up.

如果俄国人仔细研究过，就会知道鸭绿江是死亡陷阱——当对岸有军队严阵以待时，任何渡江部队都将遭遇灭顶之灾。

If the Russians had studied it carefully, they would have known the Yalu River is lethal to send an army across that if there's an army waiting for it on the other side.

俄国人本应意识到，这个风水口和摩天岭（摩天字面意思是『触及天际』）若设下防线，足以摧毁任何来犯之军。

The Russians also would have realized that this Feng Shui Pass and the Mo Tian Pass Mo Tian means literally scratch the skies, that if you're prepared there, you're gonna ruin an army coming through.

当然，俄国人在那里毫无防备。

Of course, the Russians aren't prepared there.

他们本应知道，辽东半岛的颈部非常狭窄。

And then they also would have known it, the Liaodong Peninsula, it has a very narrow neck.

若切断狭窄的颈部——就在大连这个大型商港所在地——就能夺取这个与铁路相连的港口，从而为北上军队提供补给。

If you cut the narrow neck, which is right where Dhani is, a big commercial port, you're gonna get that port, which is connected to the railway, and you're gonna be able to supply your armies going right up north.

此外，这还意味着很可能同时夺取旅顺这个大型海军基地，因为它基本上已被孤立成岛。

In addition, it means you're probably gonna get Port Arthur, the big naval base, as well because it's basically been turned into an island, and you'll probably get that.

所以俄国人本应意识到这些，但他们没有。

So the Russians should have figured out that they but they didn't.

日军势如破竹地攻占这些要地，而这是削弱旅顺舰队的关键。

The Japanese literally blast through these locations, And here is the key to reducing the fleet in Port Arthur.

由于俄军拒绝出战，只固守港内，日军必须另寻对策。

Since the Russians wouldn't sortie, they're just sticking in harbor, so the Japanese have to figure out a way to do it.

具体方案是这样的。

Here's how it works.

他们需要在阵地部署一批11英寸榴弹炮。

They have to get a bunch of these 11 inches howitzers in place.

日本并没有多少这种火炮。

Japan didn't own many of these.

它们非常沉重。

They're really heavy.

用马匹等运输工具搬运它们极为困难。

It's really hard to transport them with horses and things.

他们必须将这些火炮部署在旅顺港的山丘后方，还要抢占制高点——他们花了相当长时间才意识到必须这么做。

They've got to put them behind the hills in Port Arthur, and then they've got to take the high point, which is it takes them a while to figure out that they needed to do this.

那是203高地。

It's 203 meter hill.

你在203高地上设置观察员。

You put a spotter on 203 meter hill.

火炮开始射击后，观察员通过无线电不断校正火线，以确保炮弹能命中港内的舰船。

This thing starts firing shots, and the spotter starts radioing in how you have to adjust the line of fire in order to hit the ships and harbor.

这就是当时的作战方式。

So that's what's going on here.

这里，你可以看到达拉尼上方的狭窄颈部。

Here, you can see the narrow neck there above Daulany.

可以看到这是个能停泊许多船只的大港口，但防护性不强。

You can see it's a big port where you put a lot of ships, but not a very protected port.

五角星标记处是旅顺港，那是个适合停泊军舰的防护性港口。

The star is where Port Arthur is, and that is a protected port where you wanna put naval vessels.

可以看到日军花了两个月时间沿着辽东半岛推进，才进入能炮击港内舰船的位置。

And you can see it takes the Japanese two months to work their way down the Liaodong Peninsula to get themselves in position to blow away the ships in port.

与此同时，日军陆军在此期间也遭遇了困境。

Meanwhile, Japanese armies are having a hard time while this is going on.

有人认为他们甚至在辽阳会战中达到了进攻的顶点。

It could be argued that maybe they even reached their culminating point of attack in the battle of Liaoyang.

谁知道呢？

Who knows?

辽阳会战发生在战争进程不到一半的时候。

Liaoyang takes place less than halfway through the war.

那是在1904年9月初，日本的弹药、军官数量、马匹数量都达到了临界点。

It's in early September nineteen oh four, and Japanese munitions, numbers of officers, numbers of horses, it all goes critical.

他们资源不足。

They don't have enough.

但他们侥幸过关了。

They get away with it.

他们赢得了战役，但俄军却组织有序地向北撤退了。

They win the battle, but they don't the Russians have an organized retreat northward.

而在接下来10月发生的沙河会战中，日军的补给系统几乎崩溃，但他们还是撑过去了。

And at the Battle of Shakhar, which happens next in in October, the Japanese supply system almost collapses, but they get away with it.

因此陆上战况十分不利。

And so bad things are going on at land.

日本没有无限的兵源补充。

Japan doesn't have an infinite supply of soldiers.

你还可以看到，他们也没有无限的火炮、榴弹炮等装备供应。

So you can also look, don't have an infinite supply of artillery, howitzers and things.

这是他们的炮台位置。

Here are their gun emplacements.

注意绿色的标记是旅顺港周围的陆军炮台。

Notice the green ones are army guns emplacements around Port Arthur.

这很合理。

That makes sense.

那些紫色的是什么？

What's all the purple?

他们的火炮太少了，正从舰船上拆卸下来用于攻陷旅顺。

They have so few guns, they're pulling them off ships in order to reduce Port Arthur.

这些装备他们其实急需用在满洲前线。

All these things they really need up in Manchuria.

他们需要负责全局的乃木希典将军，他的部队应该在满洲作战。

They need Nogi, General Nogi, who's running all of this, his army up in Manchuria.

你可以看到圆圈处就是203高地，那里也是他们必须攻占的目标。

And there you can see the circle is where 203 meter hill is, that they need to take that as well.

好的。

Alright.

所以乃木希典将军指挥负责围攻的第三军，他极其迫切地想要尽快攻陷要塞，为此对要塞发动了四次代价高昂的步兵冲锋，导致大量日本年轻士兵丧生。

So General Nogi, is commanding the third army, which is in charge of the siege, he is really desperate to take to reduce the fortress as soon as possible, and he runs four different really costly infantry assaults on a fortress where you're killing lots of Japanese young men.

他命令部队在辽阳和沙河两场大战役前夕率先行动，因为他想先赢得这些战役、攻下旅顺，才能调集枪炮部队前往辽阳和沙河作战。

And he tells them The first to occur right prior to major battles, Liao Yang and Shahe respectively, because he wants to win those battles, win Port Arthur so then he can take his guns and troops to fight at Liaoyang and Shah He.

可惜事与愿违，他两场战役都输了。

Well, it's not to be because he loses both of them.

这些冲锋行动都未能奏效。

The assaults are insufficient.

直到第二次冲锋后，他才意识到203高地的重要性。

And it's only after the second one that he realizes the importance of two zero three meter hill.

问题在于乃木为此牺牲了四万五千名日本士兵。

The problem is Nogi gets 45,000 Japanese soldiers killed doing this.

在那个年代，四万五千士兵相当于整支军队的规模。

45,000 soldiers in that day is an entire army.

我之前已经指出，日本直到战争末期才勉强拼凑出第五支军队。

And I've already pointed out that Japan only had foreign armies until the very end of the war when it tries to cobble together a fifth one.

这就是从下方看到的203米高地的样子。

Here's what what two zero three meter hill looks like from down below.

这是从顶部俯瞰的视角，你能看到的景象。

Here's what it looks like from up top, the kind of view you get.

1904年12月初停战期间，日俄军官有过对话，俄国军官说'你们永远攻不下203高地'，日本军官回应道'我们将用鲜血买下它'。

When there was a truce in early December nineteen o four and there was some talking between Japanese and Russian officers, Russian officers said, You will never capture 203 Meter Hill, to which the Japanese officer replied, We'll purchase it in blood.

他们确实做到了。

And they did.

他们的豪赌得到了回报，注意看这些船舰都倾斜着。

And their gamble paid off because all these ships, you'll notice they're listing.

因为它们哪儿也去不了了。

It's because of, they ain't sailing anywhere.

他们在11月夺取了203高地，不到一周内就击沉了所有这些战列舰，几天内它们就全军覆没了。

The 203 Meter Hill, they take it the November, and within the week, they are now sinking all of these battleships, and they're gone with a few days.

俄军在旅顺港投降后，第三军团随即北上进入满洲，准备参加规模巨大的奉天会战。

And the the Russians give up at Port Arthur, and the third army is up and and heading into Manchuria where it'll be there for the battle of Mukden, which is a huge battle.

这场战役双方投入兵力约50万。

It's got, what, 500,000 troops.

即便如此，俄军仍能比日军多集结12.5万兵力。

But even so, Russia can muster 125,000 more troops than Japan can.

日军在此战中已到了饥不择食的地步——少年、老人，凡是能充军的都被强征入伍。

Japan, in this battle, is just taking anybody, young boys, old people, whoever they can put into that army, they're putting into it.

可以说若非俄军战略失误，日军早已超出其进攻能力的极限。

And you could argue that they're well beyond their commoning point of attack, but for incompetent Russian strategy.

倘若俄军再发动一次进攻，日军的补给线必将崩溃，届时他们在辽东半岛的溃退程度将难以估量。

If the Russians had run one more battle against the Japanese, their Japanese supply lines would have collapsed, and it's unclear how far down the Liaodong Peninsula they would have had to retreat.

此刻日本的战争终止计划开始启动。

So this is when Japan's war termination plan goes into effect.

日本从一开始就明白自己采取的是高风险高回报的战略。

The Japanese realized from the very beginning that they had a high risk, high reward strategy.

与第二次世界大战形成鲜明对比的是，他们精心准备了一套退出战略。

And in contrast to World War II, they had a really carefully prepared exit strategy.

因此当伊藤博文首相召开内阁会议决定打响战争第一枪时，他早已安排了一位哈佛毕业生——美国时任总统西奥多·罗斯福的旧识金子坚子爵。

So when Prime Minister Ito Hirobumi is convening the cabinet and they're gonna make the decision to fire the first shots in this war, he is already lining up a Harvard grad here, Viscount who was an acquaintance of president Theodore Roosevelt of The United States, then president.

他们希望金子子爵能促成罗斯福在战争结束时进行调停。

And what they want is to have Viscount Kaneko work on getting Roosevelt ready to do mediation at the end of this war.

而《朴茨茅斯和约》将在新罕布什尔州朴茨茅斯进行谈判，由另一位哈佛校友小村寿太郎男爵全权负责。

And the the peace treaty is gonna be held in negotiations are be held in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, negotiated by another Harvard alumnus, Baron Komura, who's gonna do all of that.

与此同时，伊藤派遣其女婿（国会议员兼剑桥大学毕业生）前往英国巩固英日同盟。

Meanwhile, Ito sends his son-in-law, who's a Diet member but also a graduate of Cambridge University, off to Britain to keep the Anglo Japanese alliance solid.

可见日本人非常清楚必须为这场战争留好后路。

So the Japanese are very aware that you gotta have a way out of this thing.

正是在奉天会战中，山县有朋元帅认为此刻是打出美国牌的时机。

So it's in the battle of Mukden that field marshal Yamagata decides it's time to call the American card at at this moment.

他说：听着。

He said, look.

除非我们攻入莫斯科或圣彼得堡——这显然是不可能的，否则敌人绝不会主动求和。

The enemy is never gonna request peace unless we have invaded Moscow or Saint Petersburg, something he knows to be impossible.

他并未评估我的实力。

And he doesn't assess me.

他说，听着。

He said, look.

敌国本土仍驻有强大兵力。

The enemy's cell has powerful forces in its home country.

我军兵力已消耗殆尽。

We have already exhausted ours.

其次，敌军军官储备充足，而我军自开战以来已损失大量军官，难以补充。

Second, while the enemy still does not run out of officers, we have lost a great number since the opening of the war and cannot easily replace them.

此时俄军规模是日军的三倍，且前线部队已逐渐由精锐士兵组成，而非战争初期的殖民地部队。

At this moment, the Russian army was three times the size of the Japanese army, and that army in theater was in increasingly comprised of crack soldiers, not the the kind of colonial kind of of soldiers they'd started out with.

这位是山县元帅，在甲午战争期间，因东京政府担心他会进军北京实施政权更迭，便将其调离前线并授予闲职以防万一。

And so this here's the field marshal, Yamagata, who in the first Sino Japanese war, because the government in Tokyo was afraid he was gonna march on Beijing and do regime change, they pulled him out of theater and gave him a synagogue to make sure he didn't do that.

这次他学聪明了。

This time, he's a wiser man.

他说，我们现在必须谨慎行事。

He goes, we must now be prudent.

这是明治时代精英中的其他成员——满洲军的总参谋长。

And here are other members of this brilliant Meiji generation, the chief of staff of the Manchurian Army.

听着，如果你点了火，就得负责扑灭。

Look, if you start a fire, you gotta put it out.

这是满洲军总司令大山元帅。

And here is the field marshal Oyama, who is the commander of Manchurian forces.

但在赴任前，他告诉海军大臣：我会负责满洲战事，但何时收场就指望你来提醒了。

But before he sets out to take command, he tells the Navy minister, I will care for fighting Manchuria, but I'm counting you as the man to tell me when to quit.

看来海军要充当消防队的角色了。

So the Navy is gonna be the fire department apparently.

说到海军的行动——他们占领了埃利奥特岛改造成巡洋舰基地，就这样实施对旅顺港的封锁行动，把俄国舰队困在那里直到最终将其击沉。

To tell you what the Navy was up to, they took Elliot Island to turn it into a cruiser base, and that's how they're running the blockade operations on Port Arthur of keeping the Russian fleet in until they can eventually sink it there.

此外，日本帝国海军正忙于布设水雷。

In addition, the Imperial Japanese Navy is busy laying mines.

许多船只因触雷沉没。

A lot of ships go down to mines.

这是个有趣的故事。

So this is an interesting story.

俄国沙皇尼古拉二世对舰队被困在港口无所事事感到不满。

So Nicholas II, Tsar of Russia, doesn't much like it that his fleet is just sitting in port not doing anything.

于是他派遣马卡洛夫海军上将接管指挥权，我曾不幸读过马卡洛夫关于海军战略的主要著作。

And so he sends Admiral Makarov out there to assume command, and I've had the misfortune to read Makarov's major literary contribution, which is all about naval strategy.

他在俄国是真正的英雄，但后来我读了他的书。

And he's a real hero in Russia, but then I read his book.

简直难以置信。

It's unbelievable.

如果你面对一艘大船，你会怎么做？

If you face a big ship, what do you do?

如果是更强大的军舰，你就进攻。

A more powerful ship, you attack.

如果是较小的军舰，你该怎么做？

If it's a smaller ship, what do you do?

进攻。

You attack.

这就像是，好吧。

It's like, okay.

一招鲜吃遍天？

One size fits all?

我是说，这太缺乏分析性了。

I mean, how unanalytical.

他的结局是这样的。

Here's what happens to him.

他抵达战区后，不出一个月——再次剧透警告——他就阵亡了。

He comes in theater, and within the month, another spoiler alert, he's dead.

这是怎么发生的？

How did that happen?

他遵循了自己的策略。

He followed his strategy.

事情就是这样发生的。

That's how it happened.

他的做法是，他到达了。

What he does, he arrives.

大家都非常兴奋，因为他正带领大家撤离，以为他们即将有所作为。

Everyone's really excited because he's getting the guys out and thinking they're gonna be doing things.

但在4月12日他去世前夜，有一批日本船只在港口入口处布设水雷，他却误以为是俄国船只，并命令手下不要开火。

But on April 12, the evening before he dies, there are a bunch of Japanese ships laying mines out of the harbor's entrance, and he mistakes them for Russian ships and tells his people don't fire on them.

糟糕。

Oops.

第二天早晨，当他率领整个舰队出击时——这始终是他的作战风格，我们总是采取攻势。

And the next morning, when he sorties with the whole fleet to be part of his, we're gonna it's always take the offensive.

嗯，他们没有清扫港口确保无雷。

Well, they didn't sweep the harbor insurance for mines.

他的船触雷了，他与船同沉。

His ship hits a mine, and he goes down with a ship.

好吧。

Alright.

这是个战术失误，为此他付出了生命的代价。

That is a tactical error, and he's a dead man because of it.

然而，接下来还有一个更为重大的战略失误。

However, there's a much more important strategic error that follows.

两周后，尼古拉二世决定派遣他的波罗的海舰队——因其驻地在波罗的海而得名——长途跋涉前往旅顺港解围，为这一切报仇雪恨。

Two weeks later, Nicholas the second decides to send his Baltic fleet, named for the Baltic, that's where it is, all the way around to come and relieve the siege at Port Arthur in order to avenge all of this thing.

好吧。

Okay.

这个计划有什么问题？

What's the problem with that plan?

嗯，这就是那个计划的问题所在。

Well, that's the problem with that plan.

对吧？

Right?

路途相当遥远。

It's a long way to go.

水手们可没有空调可用。

There is no air conditioning for the sailors.

对吧？

Right?

他们来自北方寒带地区。

They come from northern climes.

等他们抵达时，已经酝酿哗变了。

By the time they arrive, they're mutinous.

他们的舰船覆满藤壶，导致航速大减。

Their ships are covered with barnacles, which means they don't move very fast.

与此同时，一旦旅顺港陷落，日军立即重新装备海军，随时可以出击。

Meanwhile, once Port Arthur has fallen, the Japanese immediately re ship their re fit their navy, so they were good to go.

这个重大失误的后果就是，想想英国，他们虽然在全球各地冒险，但拥有遍布全球的基地系统，舰船有加煤站，可以进行整修、补充淡水，让官兵休整放松。

And so the way this blunder plays out well, if you think about Britain, Britain will do these worldwide adventures, but they had a complete basing system across the globe so that their ships had coaling stations, they could refit, put more water on, give people some R and R time, relaxation and things.

此外，英国总是尽可能选择对自己有利的作战条件。

Also, the British were very careful to fight on their own terms whenever possible.

你绝不想在敌人的优势条件下作战。

You don't want to fight on the enemy's terms.

但猜猜怎么着？

Well, guess what?

你听到我说要在靠近日本的地方作战吗？带着长满藤壶的舰船和哗变的船员？

You hear me fighting right next to Japan, barnacle chips and mutinous crews?

这对你可不利。

That's not gonna go well for you.

日本人很清楚，因为当远征进行时旅顺港已经陷落，远征的目的也就不复存在了。

And the Japanese know because now that Port Arthur falls while this expedition is taking place, so then the purpose of the expedition is no longer there.

他们本该掉头返航的，但偏不，偏不。

They should have taken a U-turn and go home, but no, no, no.

他们还要继续前进。

They're gonna keep on going.

所以他们只剩一个可能的去处，就是海参崴那个次等基地。

So there is only one other possible location for them, which is an inferior base up at Vladivostok.

因此日本人知道，从南边北上到海参崴有三条路线。

So the Japanese know there are three ways to get to Vladivostok if you're coming up from the South.

要么绕远路穿过秘鲁海峡——那地方窄得要命，还绕远。

You're either gonna go the long, long way around through the Peru Strait, and it's awfully narrow, and it's a long way around.

要么走津轻海峡，稍微宽些，但会经过好几处日军大本营，还有函馆这个大港口。

You can go through the Tsugaru Strait, which is a little wider, but it goes by a bunch of big Japanese army bases and also a very large port of Hakodate.

想走这条路吗？

You wanna do that?

那可有点冒险。

That's kinda risky.

所以最短的路线是穿过朝鲜海峡，中间被对马群岛分隔，对马海峡位于东侧。

So the short way is to go through the Korea Strait, which is broken in the middle by the Tsushima Islands, and the Tsushima Strait is to the east.

最窄处仅有20到25英里宽。

It's 20 to 25 miles wide at its narrowest point.

这就是俄罗斯人选择的捷径。

And that's the short way, which is what the Russians take.

你猜怎么着？

And guess what?

那里有一支由新改装日本军舰组成的欢迎队伍，完全清楚他们的意图。

They have a welcoming party there of all these newly refitted Japanese ships that know exactly what they're up to.

对马海战是人类历史上最一边倒的海战之一。

And the battle of Tsushima is one of the most lopsided naval battles in human history.

日军几乎击沉或俘获了整个舰队，证明俄国人根本不懂海军战略，他们的海军是由一群贵族拼凑而成，其指挥官以什么闻名来着——快女人和慢船。

The Japanese just either sink or commandeer basically the entire fleet, proving the Russians had no idea of how to do naval strategy, that the Navy had been a product of a bunch of aristocrats who the one who ran it was a guy who was known for, what was it, fast women and slow ships.

这对他们来说结果可不太妙。

Did not work out well for them.

好的。

All right.

就在双方还在为是否进行谈判而谈判时，罗斯福总统向日本建议他们尝试夺取萨哈林岛。

While the negotiations are being held on whether to hold negotiations, President Roosevelt suggested to the Japanese that they try to take Sakhalin Island.

你可以看到日本本土最北端的北海道，再往北就是萨哈林岛。

You can see the tip end of the Japanese home island, Hokkaido, and then there's Sakhalin.

为什么？

Why?

因为对俄罗斯而言，该岛的价值远高于日本，可以作为和平谈判中的重要交换筹码。

Because it's much more valuable to the Russians than the Japanese, and it'd be a good trade back item in the peace negotiations.

因为对日本来说这只是个优良渔场，但对俄罗斯而言却是主权领土。

Because for Japan, it's a nice fishing ground, but for Russia, it's sovereign Russian territory.

天啊，要他们把俄罗斯主权领土割让出去——更何况是让给一个亚洲强国，考虑到当时的种族偏见。

Horrors, ceding that sovereign Russian territory to anyone, let alone an Asian power given the prejudices of the day.

好吧。

All right.

总结日本从这场战争中的收获，它实现了直接战争目标——俄军从满洲撤军。

To sum up what Japan got out of this war, it got its immediate war objective, Russian troop withdrawal for Manchuria.

这正是他们想要的。

That's what they wanted.

他们还获得了在朝鲜的日本势力范围。

And they get this Japanese sphere of, influence in Korea.

这正是他们想要的。

That's what they wanted.

但还记得最初吗？他们曾想用日本在朝鲜的优势地位换取俄国在满洲的优势地位？

But guess, remember at the very beginning, they wanted to trade Japanese predominance in Korea for Russian predominance in Manchuria?

哇哦。

Woah.

让我们看看他们实际得到了什么。

Well, let's see what they really got.

他们得到了萨哈林岛南半部——这片俄国领土。

They got the southern half of Sakhalin Island, Russian territory.

他们获得了南满地区，可以说这是更有价值的部分，因为那里有旅顺港、大连以及俄国人投资修建的所有铁路。

They got Southern Manchuria, and it's actually arguably the valuable half, the southern half, because that has Port Arthur and Dalny and all the railways that Russians had invested there.

这同时也确认了甲午战争的结果，即日本确实是亚洲的主导力量。

And then it confirms the outcome of the first Sino Japanese war, that Japan is indeed the dominant power of Asia.

所以，我的陈述到此为止。

So, I rest my case.

日本做到了。

Japan did it.

正是日本的明智决策扭转了亚洲的力量平衡。

Smart decisions in Japan is what overturn the balance of power in Asia.

好的。

Okay.

但我答应过要给出一个反方观点。

But I promised you a counterargument.

不同意我观点的聪明人会怎么说呢？

What would a smart person say who disagrees with me?

这里有一个相当有力的反驳观点，他们会说：是的，你认为日本人很聪明这很好。

And here's a perfectly good counterargument, which would say, yeah, it's great you think the Japanese are so clever.

但实际上，中国当时正遭遇一场灾难的完美风暴。

But actually, China faced a perfect storm of catastrophes.

正是因为中国的内爆，才让日本得以在亚洲称雄。

And because China imploded, that's why it leaves Japan on top in Asia.

最根本的因素在于中国正在分崩离析。

The primary factor is that China's falling apart.

关于这场完美风暴般的问题，我将重点阐述三个方面。

And this perfect storm of problems, I'll go through three.

三是个不错的数字。

It's always a good number.

人们能记住三件事。

People can remember three things.

说到困扰中国的内战，在那个欧洲帝国主义加速扩张的时代，再加上统治中国的满族人仅占人口的2%，正遭受着各种王朝衰落的困境，这些我都会详细说明。

Talking about the civil wars afflicting China, that in an age of accelerating European imperialism, and also the Manchus who ran China, they're only 2% of the population, were suffering from all kinds of dynastic decline, which I will get into.

中国已触及前工业时代的增长极限。

China had reached its pre industrial limits to growth.

人口持续增长，但农业生产力却无法养活民众。

Its population kept on going up and up, but its agricultural productivity just could not feed people.

于是人们开始耕种极为贫瘠的土地。

And so people are trying to farm really marginal lands.

这些土地要么过于陡峭，要么缺乏稳定降雨，导致大规模水土流失，同时还频发饥荒。

Either they're too vertical, they don't have reliable rainfall, and you're getting massive soil erosion doing these things, and you're also getting a lot of famines.

饥荒既是内战的诱因，也是其恶果。

And famines are both the cause and the effect of civil wars.

这张地图上，可以看到我标注了几场重大起义。

In this map, can just see I've named some of the big rebellions on this one.

这能让你感受到这些叛乱波及整个中国，而非零星局部，而是全面爆发。

It's to give you a sense that these rebellions affect all of China, not just a little here and there, but a lot of everywhere.

现在我将展示一张简化表格。

Now I'm gonna give you a table, and this is a simplified table.

它仅涵盖1845年至1895年。

It only goes eighteen forty five to 1895.

这是一个更大表格的一部分，该表格本应覆盖整个19世纪，而那个表格已经是过度简化的版本。

It's part of a much bigger table that would cover the entire nineteenth century, and that table is an oversimplification.

关键在于，这不是常规情况。

So the point is, this is not business as usual.

红框标注的是这些叛乱的高峰期，1851年至1878年。

In the red box, that is the height of these rebellions, eighteen fifty one to eighteen seventy eight.

其中规模最大的叛乱是太平天国运动。

The biggest rebellion in there is the Taipings.

据估计，太平天国运动导致2000万人死亡。

It's estimated that 20,000,000 people died in the Taiping Rebellion.

为了让这个数字更直观些，人们其实并不清楚这些事件中到底死了多少人。

To put that figure in perspective and people don't know how many people died in all these things.

当时中国连自己有多少人口都不知道，更不用说统计损失的人口了。

China didn't know how many people they had, much less how many people they lost.

但为了让你有个概念，据估计二战中有5500万人丧生。

But to give you a sense, World War II, it's estimated that 55,000,000 people died.

所以仅太平天国就有2000万人死亡，我完全不清楚这些数字加起来会是多少。

So you're talking 20,000,000 just in the Taipings, and I have no idea how all this adds up.

但规模非常庞大。

But it's huge.

中国人喜欢称这些事件为叛乱或起义。

The Chinese like to talk about these as being rebellions or uprisings.

别开玩笑了。

Give me a break.

这些都是内战。

They're civil wars.

其中一大群人想推翻北京的王朝。

A whole bunch of them wanna overthrow the dynasty in Beijing.

另一大群人则想从帝国中独立出去，通常是那些少数民族，他们只希望占主导地位的汉族——或者这个时代的满族——离开。

A whole other set of them wanna secede from the empire, often these minority people who just want the Han, the predominant people, to go away or the Manchus in this era.

因此，有些省份几代人都遭受重创。

So, some of these provinces are devastated for generations.

好的。

Okay.

这是第一点，这些内战。

So that's point one, these civil wars.

第二点是这正逢欧洲帝国主义加速扩张的时代，欧洲人以及日本都在为自己划分巨大的势力范围，所以中国人在很长、很长一段时间内都无法对自己的国家拥有完整主权。

Point two is this coincided with an era of accelerating European imperialism where Europeans and also Japan, Japanese are carving out massive spheres of influence for themselves so the Chinese are not gonna have sovereignty over their country, full sovereignty, for a very, very long time.

而故事最糟糕的部分还在后面。

And the story, the worst part, gets even worse.

中国遭遇这些是因为输掉了一系列地区战争。

This happens to China because China loses a succession of regional wars.

它输掉了第一次鸦片战争，第二次鸦片战争。

It loses the first Opium War, the second Opium War.

日本人夺走了琉球群岛。

The Japanese snag the Ryukyu Islands.

而在中法战争中，中国失去了对印度支那的控制权。

And then in the Sino French War, China loses control over Indochina.

随后在中日甲午战争中，他们又失去了朝鲜这个藩属国。

And then in the Sino Japanese War, they're losing their tributary of Korea.

新疆的伊犁危机对他们来说稍有好转。

The Ili crisis is up in Xinjiang, goes a little better for them.

这简直一团糟。

This is a mess.

这绝非寻常事态。

This is not business as usual.

试想一个国家要承受如此多的磨难。

This is, think about one country being afflicted by this much trouble.

而这一切还发生在满清政权自身岌岌可危之时。

And then it comes at a time when the Manchus are in real trouble themselves.

他们曾凭借精锐骑兵和卓越战术以仅占人口2%的比例实现统治，到十八世纪时将中国打造成全球最富庶的政体。

They had ridden to power on these fabulous cavalries and tremendous operational success for people who are only 2% of the population that they dominate, and they transform China into the richest polity around the globe by the eighteenth century.

但他们军事战役的巨大成功背后存在一个问题。

But here's the problem with their tremendous success in their military campaigns.

他们在财政上过度扩张了中国。

They're overextending China financially.

那个圆圈内部就是中国本土。

Inside the round circle there, that's China proper.

这些是中国核心省份，承担着所有收入来源。

These are the core provinces of China that produce all the income.

但满族不仅从东北入关，还控制了蒙古、新疆和西藏。

But the Manchus came in from Manchuria up there, but they also take Mongolia, Xinjiang, Tibet.

这些地区——东北倒还好——但其他地区需要大量驻军成本。

The areas that cost I'm not Manchuria so much, but the other ones, they cost a lot of garrisoning.

在这些地方驻军耗费巨大。

It costs a lot of money to garrison these places.

所以表面看似辉煌，实则埋下了日后隐患。

And so it looks like a great success, but it's gonna have problems later on.

接下来看看满洲皇帝们的遭遇。

And then here's what happens to the Manchu emperors.

他们不再亲自领军出征。

They no longer ride at the head of their armies.

被公认为王朝鼎盛时期的乾隆皇帝，他把钱都花在什么地方了？

The Qianlong emperor who's considered to be, who ruled at the height of the dynasty, what's he spending his money on?

各种有趣的建筑项目，这就是人们认为他伟大的原因——建造了许多精美建筑。

All sorts of interesting architectural programs, and that's why people think he's great, builds beautiful things.

但这些皇帝们与世隔绝。

But these emperors are isolated.

他们缺乏指挥经验，养成了奢侈的消费习惯，然后情况变得更糟。

They don't have command experience, expensive spending habits, and then it gets better.

他们拥有所有这些朝贡国。

So they got all these tributaries.

其中一些朝贡国生产质量上乘的鸦片，皇帝们决定要亲自品尝这些贡品。

Some of their tributaries produce really high quality opium, and the emperors decide they want to sample the goods.

而那些为他们准备鸦片的人也想尝尝这玩意儿。

And the people who are preparing it for them also want to sample the goods.

接着满洲八旗军——相当于满洲人的禁卫军——也开始吸食鸦片。

And then the Manchu banner forces that are the Praetorian guard of the Manchus are also sampling the goods.

然后你就会问，为什么清朝末代皇帝们要么无法生育，要么子嗣稀少？

And then you go, why are the last Qing emperors incapable of producing offspring or have hardly any?

因为他们拥有庞大的后宫。

Because they got huge harems.

那么问题出在哪里呢？

So what's their problem?

如果你长期沉迷毒品，确实会毁了自己。

Well, if you're really totally high on drugs, you can ruin yourself.

事情就是这样发展的。

And so that is what goes on.

难怪他们会输掉这些战争，毕竟核心决策者中有些人神志都不太清醒。

No wonder they're losing these wars if some of your key thinkers are not thinking very clearly.

所以对我的论点的反驳会说，看吧，这纯属无稽之谈。

So the counterargument to my argument says, look, it's nonsense.

我是说，日本人可能确实很聪明，但真正的大事件是这一连串大规模内战、欧洲帝国主义以及满族少数统治的崩溃。

I mean, the Japanese may have been really clever, but this is the real big event, is this massive series of civil wars, European imperialism, and the collapse of Manchu minority rule.

那才是真正的关键。

That would be the real thing.

现在我把论点停在这里，我刚搬起石头砸了自己的脚，因为我用一个相当有力的反驳彻底瓦解了最初的论点，这可不妙。

Now, I leave my argument here, I've just shot myself in the foot because I've just decimated my original argument with a pretty good counterargument, and that would be bad.

那会很痛。

That would hurt.

所以你需要进行反驳，而且最好从意想不到的角度切入。

So you need to do a rebuttal, and it's really good to come from an unexpected direction.

所以我打算从我的角度尝试，那就是俄罗斯，并指出：看，俄罗斯才是催化剂。

So I'm gonna try my direction, which is gonna be Russia, and say, look, Russia is the catalyst.

它正利用中国的崩溃，将以某种方式催化局势，而日本将借势发力，正是东京方面对这些机遇的明智决策最终回答了问题。

It's taking advantage of the collapse of China, and it's going to catalyze things in a way that Japan is going to leverage, and it's going to be Japan leveraging these things that proves that smart decisions in Tokyo answers the question.

那么俄罗斯的情况如何？

So what's going on with Russia?

俄罗斯一直试图扩张其领土。

Russia has always tries to expand its territory.

它如今是地球上最大的国家。

It is today the largest country on the planet.

为什么他们还需要更多领土？

Why they need more territory?

没人知道。

Nobody knows.

但这就是他们的目标。

But that's what they're after.

而如今，他们正在夺取的是那两个大区域。

And in these days, what they're taking are those two large areas.

等到布尔什维克完成他们的魔法时，俄罗斯人已经从中国的势力范围中夺取了领土。

And by the time the Bolsheviks finished working their magic, Russians have taken from the Chinese sphere of influences.

布尔什维克虽已成为历史，但这让你有所体会。

The Bolsheviks are beyond today, but it gives you a sense.

他们从中国势力范围夺取的领土，比美国密西西比河以东地区还要多。

They took more territory from Chinese sphere of influence than The United States East Of The Mississippi.

那可是大片领土。

There's a lot of territory.

但在那个年代，鸦片战争正在进行，太平天国与捻军这两场大规模起义同时爆发，俄国人却跑去对清朝说：喂。

But in this day, while the opium wars are going on and while the Taiping and Nien rebellions, the two big ones, are happening simultaneously, the Russians go to the Qing and say, hey.

我们帮你对付那些外国人。

We'll deal with those foreigners for you.

我们来做中间人，只要在这些条约上签字画押，把这些土地全给我们就行。

We'll be an intermediary, but just sign on the dotted line for these treaties, giving us all this land.

当时中国人对地理概念模糊，也不信守条约。

And the Chinese were vague on geography, and they didn't believe in treaties.

他们以为日后能收回这些土地。

They thought they'd get it back later.

俄罗斯得到了这一切，却什么都没做，因为我们知道条约口岸体系，英国和法国得到了全部，俄罗斯也分得一杯羹。

So Russia gets all this stuff, does exactly nothing because we know about the treaty port system, and the British and French got all of it, and Russia got this stuff too.

一旦俄罗斯得到这些，这就是他们想要铁路的原因，因为他们想将其整合进去。

Once Russia gets this stuff, that's why they want the railway because they wanna integrate it in there.

所以西伯利亚大铁路是蓝色的部分，但要明白绿色部分上方的蓝色部分直到一战才建成。

So the Trans Siberian Railway is the blue thing, but understand that the blue part that's above the green part, that wasn't built until World War I.

俄罗斯修建了绿色部分，即中国东清铁路，以此宣示其对帝国的规划。

Russia builds the green part, which is the Chinese Eastern Railway, the name of it, in order to stake out its, its plans for empire.

同时注意它还想获得不冻港。

And also notice it wants the warm water port.

这就是通往旅顺港的橙色部分，因为在破冰船时代之前，海参崴每年有几个月会完全封冻。

That's the orange part going down to Port Arthur because Vladivostok, prior to the age of icebreakers is frozen solid several months of the year.

于是俄罗斯开始修建铁路。

So Russia's building its railways.

为了节省建设成本，直接横穿满洲里更便捷。

Save on construction costs is more direct going straight across Manchuria.

遏制日本对满洲的领土主张。

Contain Japan stake out its claim to Manchuria.

日本人明白了这一点。

The Japanese get it.

对吧？

Right?

嗯，这在讲座前面提到过。

Well, that was earlier in this lecture.

他们预见到这一情况，但并不乐见。

They see this coming, and they don't like it.

此外，中国人对列强在自己国土上的所作所为也极为不满。

And then, in addition to what's going on, the Chinese don't particularly like all the imperialists messing with their country.

于是义和团运动爆发了。

And so the boxers is another rebellion.

这些人想将所有西方人赶出中国，并追杀任何落单者。

And these folks want all Westerners out of China, and they wanna kill any stragglers.

他们进入中国各地。

And they go into they're all over China.

他们进入满洲，俄国派出十万大军，远超欧洲列强甚至日本派往中国其他地区镇压义和团的兵力，并最终成功。

They go into Manchuria, and the Russians send a 100,000 troops, far more than any of the European powers or even Japan sends a lot to the rest of China to get the to defeat the Boxers, which they do.

然后其他西方国家和日本撤回了他们的军队。

And then the other Westerners in Japan remove their troops.

俄国没有撤军。

Russia doesn't.

这引起了日本的注意，因为俄国在满洲驻有十万拒不撤离的军队。

And this is the thing that gets Japan's attention because Russia's got a 100,000 troops in Manchuria that won't leave.

日本对俄国的拖延忍无可忍，最终导致了日俄战争的爆发。

And that's when Japan is sick of Russia procrastinating, and we're gonna wind up getting into the Russo Japanese war.

所以猜猜看？

So guess what?

我们又回到了我最初的解释。

We're back to my original explanation.

对吧？

Right?

日本人巧妙处理了这一切，最终占据了上风。

The Japanese finessed all of this, and they wind up on top.

正是通过在大战略上的深思熟虑，他们逆转了力量对比。

And it's by being very thoughtful in their grand strategy that they reverse the balance of power.

所以我要用乃木将军的故事来结束这个话题。

So I'm gonna end this thing with General Nogi.

乃木将军是负责指挥四次旅顺口战役的人。

General Nogi is the one who oversaw the four assaults on Port Arthur.

在这场战争中，他失去了两个儿子——一个在南山战役（位于阿拉丁半岛）中阵亡，另一个他最疼爱的儿子则是在他指挥下的旅顺口战役中牺牲。

He lost both of his sons in this war, one in the Battle of Nanshan, which is down the Aladdin Peninsula, and then his other, his favorite, under his command in Port Arthur.

战争结束后，他请求明治天皇允许他切腹谢罪，但天皇拒绝了。

When the war was over, he asked the Meiji Emperor if he could commit ritual suicide, and the Emperor said no.

所以当明治天皇去世时，他和妻子便双双自尽了。

So when the Meiji Emperor died, he and his wife did.

这首诗有助于解释原因。

And this poem helps explain why.

百万皇军征服了傲慢的敌人，但围城与野战留下了尸骨如山。

Imperial troops, a million strong, conquered an arrogant enemy, but siege and field warfare left a mountain of corpses.

羞愧难当，我以何面目见年迈双亲？

Ashamed, what face can I show to old parents?

凯歌高奏之日，又有几人得以生还？

How many men have returned this day of triumphal song?

战争带来无尽悲怆。

Wars bring much sorrow.

我就此结束，非常感谢各位的聆听。

And so I leave you with that, and thank you very much for your attention.

我特别喜爱这场讲座，尤其是这个主题，因为它讲述的是我们多数人未曾了解过的冲突，却为其他著名战争（如二战）提供了背景，也揭示了这些亚洲最强国家的发展脉络。

I loved this lecture especially and to this topic especially because it's about a conflict that many of us weren't educated on but adds context to the other ones, which are obviously super famous, like World War two, adds context to the development of these powers, which are the most powerful in Asia.

我就不再占用大家时间了。

So I'm not gonna keep wasting time.

我想直接问你一些关于这个的问题。

I just wanna jump into asking you a bunch of questions about this.

好的。

Okay.

解释俄罗斯在这里失败的一个原因是日本有更好的战术。

One way you can explain Russia's loss here is that Japan had better tactics.

鉴于双方在前线部署了相似数量的兵力，日本凭借更优的战术赢得了这些不同的战役。

And so given the fact that they had deployed similar amounts of men to the front, Japan, their better tactics, was able to win the in these different battles.

但或许更重要的是解释为什么俄罗斯没有部署更多兵力或动用其更丰富的资源。

But maybe the more important thing to explain is why Russia didn't deploy more men or didn't deploy its greater resources.

此时俄罗斯的人口已超过1.3亿。

Russia's population is over 130,000,000 people at this point.

日本人口约为4700万。

Japan's is 47,000,000 or so.

嗯，你可能会说西伯利亚大铁路此时尚未全线贯通。

Well, you might say the Trans Siberian Railway isn't completed by this point.

但到了1905年，这条铁路其实已经完工了。

But in nineteen o five, it actually is complete.

因此俄罗斯本可以继续这场战争。

And so Russia could have continued the war.

他们本可以调遣所有这些新兵部队。

It has all these fresh troops it could send.

那么问题来了，为什么他们没有像日本那样展现出同样的意志或动员资源的能力，去调动他们庞大的资源储备呢？

So then the question is why didn't they have the same will to or the same ability to muster resources, their their massive resources that Japan brought to bear?

嗯，一个原因是铁路成了瓶颈。

Well, one is the the railway's a bottleneck.

日本是刻意在瓶颈被卡住前发动战争的。

Japan's starting the war deliberately before while that bottleneck is bottled.

所以这是一个因素。

So that's one factor.

俄罗斯确实拥有庞大的军队。

Russia has massive troops.

此外，俄罗斯人很傲慢。

Also, Russians are arrogant.

对吧？

Right?

起初，俄国人认为他们能在东京实现政权更迭。

They think Japanese initially, the the Russians think they're gonna do regime change in Tokyo.

这就是他们的计划。

That's their plan.

他们计划如何抵达东京是个谜，不过这不重要。

How they plan to get to Tokyo is a mystery, but never mind.

所以他们没意识到自己的需求。

And so they don't realize what they need.

战争中一个相当普遍的问题就是严重低估对手。

It's a it's a fairly common problem in wars is gross underestimation of the other side.

对吧？

Right?

这就是乌克兰正在发生的事情。

That's what's going on in Ukraine right now.

普京没料到这一点。

Putin missed that one.

他不是唯一一个。

He's not the only one.

对吧？

Right?

希特勒在二战时低估了俄罗斯人。

Hitler underestimated the Russians in World War II.

然后你会问，为什么日本会这样？

And then you go, oh, why is everybody what's going on with Japan?

明治维新改革后，他们有了受过教育的国民。

And it had a really those Meiji reforms, they have an educated population.

俄罗斯士兵大多目不识丁，他们只会问：什么？

Russia's soldiers are a bunch of illiterates, and the Russian soldiers are going, what?

我们为什么要在满洲打仗？

Why are we fighting in Manchuria?

明确告诉我，我为什么在这里送死？

Tell me precisely why I'm here getting killed?

俄国士兵毫无斗志，你可以问问，俄国人到底想要什么？

The Russian soldiers had no buy in, And you can ask, what exactly did the Russians want there?

显然，有些皇室宠臣以为他们能在朝鲜边境获得利润丰厚的木材特许权。

Apparently, there were some royal favorites who thought that they were gonna get some lucrative timber concessions on the Korean border.

好吧。

Okay.

我们来谈谈后勤问题。

Let's go into logistics.

我从未听说过欧洲俄罗斯地区有过木材短缺的情况。

I've never heard there was a shortage of wood in European Russia ever.

然后他们还要千里迢迢把木材运回去。

And then they're gonna ship it all the way back.

这是一个低效的经济模式。

This is a nonperforming economic model.

此外，尼古拉二世是个无能的沙皇。

In addition, Nicholas the second is an incompetent czar.

而他任用管理海军的人同样无能。

And he's hiring the guy who's running the navy is also incompetent.

他们的海军完全没有接受过训练。

Their Navy gets no training whatsoever.

太棒了。

So great.

你们拥有大量舰船，却无人懂得如何操作，而日本人却精通此道。

You have extensive ships, but no one's trained in how to use them, whereas the Japanese have.

而日本人，这是目标价值的体现，这类概念之一。

And the Japanese, it's the value of the object, one of these concepts.

对日本而言，战胜俄国有多重要？

How valuable is it to win for Japan versus Russia?

对俄罗斯来说，它已经是地球上最大的国家，从他们的视角看，亚洲没什么真正令人兴奋的东西。

Well, for Russia, it's already the biggest country in the planet, and there's nothing really that exciting out in Asia from their point of view.

也许对尼古拉斯来说，因为他想成为一位伟大的沙皇并扩张帝国，那会是件好事。

Maybe for Nicholas because he wants to be a great czar and add to the empire, that would be a nice thing.

但当德国人在二战或一战中追击他时，我想他会更关心其他事情。

But when the Germans come after him in World War two World War one, I think he's gonna care about the other things more.

所以这对日本来说，无论对错，他们的政府和受过教育的人都认为这是生死攸关的问题。

So that's one for the Japanese, rightly or wrongly, their government and educated people consider it existential.

他们看着中国说，如果我们不解决问题，那就是我们的未来。

And they're looking at China going, that's our future if we don't fix things.

他们认为日本的解决方案是建立帝国，因为在那个年代，这似乎是强国行事的方式。

And they're thinking the solution for Japan is empire because in those days, that seemed to be the way powerful countries ran things.

所以这是合法后勤瓶颈的综合作用。

So it's a combination of logistical legitimate logistical bottlenecks.

日本方面，由于他们开始进行大规模准备，而俄罗斯人根本没计划打这场仗。

Japan is since they're gonna be starting to see massive preparations, the Russians aren't planning to fight this thing.

他们认为战争何时开始或结束由我决定。

They're thinking that I determine when the war begin whether wars begin or end.

抱歉。

Excuse me.

他们并不这么认为。

They don't.

所以你的意思是俄罗斯并不在乎这场冲突

So I guess you're saying Russia doesn't care about this conflict as

俄罗斯人。

Russians.

沙皇尼古拉斯可能在乎，但他的人民正在反抗。

Tsar Nicholas might, but his population is fighting it.

所以他根本没有国家动员能力——哦，这就是问题的核心

So then he doesn't have the state capacity to mobilize his Oh, that's the whole problem

俄罗斯的问题所在。

with Russia.

好的。

Okay.

这就是制度的力量。

This is the power of institutions.

日本显然能够动员起来。

Japan clearly can mobilize.

天啊，它在贷款和各种事务上不是做得很好吗？

Boy, is it doing well with the loans and all sorts of things?

它正在利用这些制度。

It's using these institutions.

而俄罗斯，记忆中甚至没有立法机构。

Whereas Russia, memory doesn't have a legislature.

沙皇确实有大臣，但从某种意义上说他没有内阁，因为这些大臣从未同时出现在他家中围桌而坐。

The Tsar doesn't have a cabinet in the sense he has ministers, but they don't ever show up at his house at the same time to sit around a table.

他只是一次接见一个大臣。

He's just doing them one at a time.

罗曼诺夫家族有许多堂兄弟姐妹。

And then the Romanov family have lots of first cousins.

对吧？

Right?

每个人都生了很多孩子，所以你有数不清的堂兄弟姐妹，他们都被安插在各个部门，基本上充当罗曼诺夫家族的情报系统，了解正在发生的事情。

You got Everybody's having lots of kids, and so you got a million first cousins, and they are all deployed throughout the ministries basically being the spy system for the Romanov family of what's going on.

这些富家子弟中有特别能干的吗？

Are any of these nice rich boys particularly competent?

没有。

No.

我想了解第一次世界大战，他们能够动员更多的人力。

I wanna understand World War one, they are able to mobilize many more men.

显然，一战期间也存在无能的情况。

They obviously, there was incompetence in World War one as well.

但是，就像沙皇在这场冲突中能够调往远东的资源总量那样

But, like, the sheer if there's the amount of resources that the czar was able to bring to the Far East during this conflict

看看地图，你会发现欧洲俄罗斯的铁路网要密集得多。

Look at a map, and you'll see the railway grid is much more extensive in European Russia.

而这里正是谢尔盖·维特伯爵——沙皇晚期最杰出的大臣——试图在他管辖的财政部推行类似明治维新的改革，为这些铁路提供资金支持。

And they this is where count Sergei Vita, their finest minister of late czarist period, he's the one who's doing trying to do his version of a Meiji restoration in his purview, which is the finance ministry, financing all these railways.

因此这里有更多铁路，也是俄罗斯人口集中的区域。

So there are many more railways, and this is where Russia's population is.

这里既是他们历史上的安全威胁来源，俄罗斯人也更愿意保卫欧洲边境。

This is where their historical security threats come from, and Russians can get on board with protecting European borders.

等到1905年西伯利亚大铁路完工后

Once the Trans Siberian Railway is finished in nineteen o five

只是满洲里那段而已

Just the it's a part of Manchuria.

真正贯穿国境线的铁路直到一战才完工

It's not the the one that goes on their side of the boundaries, not completed until World War one.

我很高兴宣布我的新赞助商Hudson River Trading

I'm excited to announce my new sponsor Hudson River Trading.

他们是一家量化公司，约占美国股票交易总量的15%。

They're a quant firm that accounts for around 15% of all US equities trading volume.

几乎所有这些交易都通过他们的深度学习模型进行。

And almost all of this trading goes through their deep learning models.

但预测市场走势简直难如登天。

But predicting market movements is just insanely hard.

你必须处理不完善的信息、各种信噪比极低的异构数据，以及近乎不可能满足的延迟限制。

You have to deal with imperfect information, all kinds of heterogeneous data with minuscule signal to noise ratios and impossibly tight latency constraints.

更棘手的是，你还要与世界上最聪明的一群人展开军备竞赛——他们不断用你输出的数据训练自己的模型。

And if this weren't enough, you're in this arms race against some of the smartest people in the world who are continuously training their models against the data that you output.

正因如此，HRT将其内部AI团队打造成了一个前沿实验室。

Because of this, HRT has built their internal AI team like a frontier lab.

他们汇集了所有资产类别中数万亿token的市场数据，并投资建设了庞大的B200芯片集群。

They've aggregated trillions of tokens of market data across every asset class and invested in a massive cluster of B200s.

他们还组建了一支杰出的研究团队，专门从事机器学习基础研究。

And they've built up an exceptional team of researchers to do fundamental ML research.