EYL 2026年股票推荐

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所以我会从那些明显在投资组合中并将继续保留的股票开始。

So I'm a start, with the ones that are obvious that are in the portfolio that will remain in the portfolio.

所以TSM，我们已经提过了。

So TSM, we kind of highlighted that already.

AMD仍然在投资组合中。

AMD is still in the portfolio.

它将保留在2026年的投资组合中。

It will remain in the portfolio for 2026.

Meta，我在这里稍微停一下，因为上节课我没提到它，我想留到2026年的开头来讲。

Meta, and I'm gonna stop on Meta really quickly, because I didn't highlight it in the last class and I wanted to save it for the top of 2026.

Meta是一只非常有趣的股票。

Meta is a very interesting stock.

我们已经了解了它在社交媒体和所有资产方面的所有情况。

We already know all the things, in terms of social media and all of the assets that it has.

我们谈到了支出和资本开支。

We talked about the spending, the CapEx spend.

但我认为他们最重要的支出是收购Manus的20亿美元，这一点却被忽略了。

But I think the most important spend that they had and it kind of got overlooked was this $2,000,000,000 acquisition of Manus.

如果我们这段时间没关注，你很可能错过了这件事，甚至可能想：‘他们在搞什么？’

And so if that happened over the time we were off, you probably overlooked it, probably like, doesn't even make what are they doing?

我都不知道那是什么东西。

I don't even know what that is.

那为什么这很重要呢？

So why is that important?

Meta已经花了很多钱。

Well, Meta has spent a lot of money.

当然。

For sure.

其中一部分问题在于，这些支出并没有转化为实际的盈利，这也是股价回落的原因。

Part of it, the the problem and why we've seen the stock pull back is that the spend hasn't equated to actually making money.

对吧？

Right?

你只是还没做到而已。

Like you have to yet.

是的。

Yeah.

关键词是‘还没’。

Keyword yet.

Manus的收购改变了这一切。

The Manus acquisition changes all of that.

对吧？

Right?

这就像杜兰特加盟勇士队一样，兄弟。

That's like when Durant went to the Warriors, bro.

那么Manus到底做什么？

So what is what does Manus do?

他们实际上创建了能够进行实时工作的AI代理。

They actually create AI agents that do real time work.

就像，它们现在真的在干活。

Like, they do work now.

对吧？

Right?

那为什么这很重要？

And so why is that important?

因为人们实际上在为这些服务付费。

That because people were actually paying for those services.

所以你收购了一家有收入的公司。

And so you purchase a company that has revenue.

现在你把这笔收入整合到你的公司里。

Now you bring that revenue into your company.

那么，它们的收入有多少？

Well, how much revenue were they doing?

嗯，Manus 是历史上最快达到每年一亿美元收入的公司，虽然不是第一个，但却是最快的。

Well, Manus was the first and the well, not the first, the fastest, fastest company in history to have a $100,000,000 of annual rate of return.

一亿美元。

100,000,000.

史上最快。

Fastest ever.

他们看到了自己在做什么。

They saw what they were doing.

他们说：看，我们花了很多钱。

They said, look, we've spent a lot of money.

我们背负了一些债务，或者说是大量债务。

We have some debt or a lot of debt that we're building.

我们需要让收入流入进来。

We need to get some revenue coming in.

让我们找一家现在就在赚钱的AI公司。

Let's figure out an AI company that is actually making money right now.

Manus就是那家公司。

Manage was that.

他们收购了它。

They acquired it.

我认为这是一笔巨大的交易。

I think that was a huge deal.

所以Meta肯定在名单上。

So Meta is definitely on the list.

我们获得了GEV。

We got GEV.

我们几个月前就提到了这一点。

We highlighted that a few months ago.

Lilly，你之前提到过的，Ian。

Lilly, which you talked about, Ian.

Hood，我们在上一期节目中讨论过。

Hood, we spoke about on the last episode.

Visa。

Visa.

然后我进入我的存储芯片领域，谈谈美光。

And then I go into my my memory sector, with Micron.

美光是一家我谈论了很久的公司，我知道你们现在可能听腻了，但已经三年了，整整三年。

And Micron is a company I've been talking about for probably like, I know y'all are tired of it now, but three years three years.

但很多人会问，美光的涨势是不是已经结束了？

But, you know, a lot of people are like, well, will Micron's run, is it over?

我的意思是，它的股价已经上涨了200%。

I mean, it it went up 200%.

我的回答是：没有。

And my answer is no.

原因如下。

And here's why.

当我们想到台积电的制造能力时，对吧？他们正在为博通生产芯片。

When we think about TSM and their manufacturing, right, they're doing that for Broadcom.

他们也在为谷歌生产芯片。

They're doing that for Google.

他们也为Meta生产。

They're doing that for Meta.

显然，他们也为NVIDIA和AMD生产。

Obviously, they're doing that for NVIDIA and AMD.

对吧？

Right?

我们在谈论GPU和CPU。

We're talking about GPUs and CPUs.

但这些组件内部需要有内存。

But inside of that component needs to it needs to have memory.

对吧？

Right?

所有这些都需要。

All of them.

我不在乎Google说他们在做TPU。

I don't care if Google says they're doing TPUs.

你仍然需要一个内存组件。

You still need a memory component.

我知道三星将在其中发挥重要作用，而且我们看到三星今天的业绩增长了。

Now I know Samsung will play a role in that and we saw Samsung, their, numbers went up today.

SK海力士，对吧？

SK Hynix, right?

这就是原因。

This is this is the reason.

如果你回顾这些科技公司CEO们的做法，他们每年都会去一趟韩国，坐下来商讨如何获取内存组件。

If you look at the history of what these tech, CEOs are doing, once a year they make a trip and they go to South Korea to sit down and figure out how they're going to get memory components.

事实上，我会把这部分留到下一家公司再讲。

In fact, well, I'll save that for the next company.

所以这种增长仍然会发生。

So that growth is still gonna happen.

事实上，他们在2026财年的总收入增长了93%。

In fact, they're a top line growth of 93% for the fiscal year of 2026.

所以美光和西部数据仍然在名单上。

So Micron remains on the list as well as Western Digital.

这跟我提到的闪迪有关。

And that kind of goes into my SanDisk.

所以我们有台积电、英伟达，就先说这些。

So we got TSM, NVIDIA, we'll go with that.

AMD、Meta、美光、GEV、礼来、Hood、Visa、西部数据。

AMD, Meta, Micron, GEV, Lilly, Hood, Visa, Western Digital.

现在英伟达，如果你看了的话，我知道，伊恩，你今天也在看，我们在CES上看到了黄仁勋。

Now NVIDIA, if you watched, and I know, Ian, you were watching it today, we saw Jensen at CES.

物理AI是真实存在的。

Physical AI is a real thing.

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Run a business and not thinking about podcasting?

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Think again.

听播客的美国人比收听Spotify和Pandora广告支持的流媒体音乐的人更多。

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作为排名第一的播客平台，iHeart的规模是紧随其后的两家平台总和的两倍。

And as the number one podcaster, iHeart's twice as large as the next two combined.

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So whatever your customers listen to, they'll hear your message.

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Plus, only iHeart can extend your message to audiences across broadcast radio.

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Streaming, radio, and podcasting.

拨打844844，立即开始。

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那就是844844

That's 844844

物理AI是真实存在的，他详细讲解了这一点。

Physical AI is a real thing and he went over it in in detail.

我们无法回避这一点。

We can't run from that.

自动驾驶汽车是真实存在的，他们一直在研发，演示令人印象深刻。

Autonomous vehicles are a real thing and they've been working on that and presentation was impressive.

我认为同样令人印象深刻的是，他们在去年12月收购了Gronk。

I think equally as impressive, and this happened at that last December, is their acquisition of Gronk.

我们之前讨论过这个，人们都说，Gronk？那不是埃隆拥有的东西吗？

And we talked about this, and people were like, well, Gronk, isn't that what what Elon has?

其实是一回事。

Well, same thing.

但这是不同的公司。

Different company.

这家公司的估值为69亿美元。

The company was valued at $6,900,000,000.

是的。

Mhmm.

69亿。

6.9.

他们根本就没打算出售。

They weren't even for sale.

对吧？

Right?

英伟达向他们开价200亿美元，他们真的接受了。

Nvidia offered them, and they actually took it, 20,000,000,000.

是的。

Mhmm.

几乎是公司实际估值的三倍。

So almost three times what the company was actually valued at.

为什么？

Why?

他们在NVIDIA没有掌握的领域实现了精通，那就是语言处理单元（LPUs）。

They were finding mastery in an area that NVIDIA wasn't finding mastery, and that is language processing units, LPUs.

所以把这一点也加到你的PUs里。

So add that to your PUs.

对吧？

Right?

我们谈到了CPU、GPU、TPU、XPU、LPUs，也就是语言处理单元。

We talked about CPUs, GPUs, TPUs, XPUs, LPUs, language processing units.

所以这是一种不同于GPU的方法。

So those do it's a different approach than a GPU.

这是一种不同的设计，专门用于特定模型。

It's a different design and it makes specific models.

对吧？

Right?

所以为什么说，当我们有大量资金时，要去收购呢？

So why say let's try to create when we have a cash load of money, let's go acquire.

于是他们收购了格隆克。

And so they acquired Gronk.

我觉得这是一次非常重大的收购。

I thought that was a very big acquisition.

NVIDIA 仍将主导 GPU 市场。

NVIDIA is still going be the lead in the GPU market.

我们都知道。

We know that.

他们今天提到了鲁本。

They talked about Ruben today.

我的意思是，出货了。

I mean Shipping out.

天哪。

Oh my god.

天啊。

Oh my gosh.

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

但那不是我今年的第一公司。

But that isn't my number one company of the year.

我今年的第一公司将是谷歌。

My number one company is gonna be Google.

你他妈的。

You motherfucker.

将会是谷歌。

It's gonna be Google.

意见一致。

On the same page.

嗯嗯。

Mhmm.

我了解到TPU的性能，我们在Gemini上看到了。

I got so the TPU performance, we we've seen with Gemini.

我的意思是，Gemini目前在GBT方面已经与OpenAI不相上下，甚至可能已经超越，而这都得益于这些TPU。

I mean, Gemini has now rivaled, if not past OpenAI for the time being in terms of GBTs, and it's being powered by those TPUs.

所以首先，我认为今年SpaceX的投资会发挥作用。

So first thing, I think the SpaceX investment comes into play this year.

嗯。

Uh-huh.

对吧？

Right?

SpaceX的投资非常重要。

The SpaceX investment is very important.

2015年，当人们没注意的时候，他们还在疑惑：为什么他们要投资SpaceX这家航空航天公司？

In 2015, when people weren't looking, they were like, why are they investing in SpaceX, this this company that is aerospace?

他们有远见。

Well, they had vision.

孙达尔有远见，而且这个愿景正在实现。

Sundar has vision and the vision is coming to life.

为什么？

Why?

我们在课堂上讨论过这个。

We talked about this on class.

对吧？

Right?

当我们考虑AI的资本支出时，它主要流向几个地方。

When we think about the CapEx spend for AI, well, there's a couple places it goes.

第一，它流向基础设施。

Number one, it goes to infrastructure.

好的。

Okay.

如果我们在这里无法建造，那我们能在太空中建造吗？

Well, if we can't build here, can we build outer space?

是的，我们可以把卫星发射到那里。

Well, yeah, we can send satellites out there.

好的。

Okay.

接下来会加剧的是能源问题。

Well, the next thing that compounds is energy.

在这里，我们需要消耗大量能源，比如液冷系统、核电站，以及所有这些必须投入运行的基础设施。

Well, it costs us energy here, liquid cooling, nuclear power plants, all this infrastructure we got to put online.

如果我们不在这个大气层内，我们的能源从哪里来？

Well, if we are not in this atmosphere, where do we get our energy from?

是的，太阳。

Yeah, the sun.

对吧？

Right?

所以你拥有无限的能量。

So you got infinite energy.

你拥有基础设施。

You got infrastructure.

接下来是冷却问题。

The next thing is cooling.

对吧？

Right?

这些芯片没有液冷就无法工作。

Like, these chips don't work without liquid cooling.

如果你看了今天詹森的演示，当他谈到Rubin芯片时，他提到了内部的液冷系统。

If you watched Jensen's presentation today, when he talked about that Rubin chip, he talked about the liquid cooling that was inside.

对吧？

Right?

因为这是必需的。

Because it's necessary.

如果温度达不到那个水平，芯片就会关机。

If it's not at that temperature, the chips will shut down.

它们无法工作。

They won't work.

但在太空中，你谈论的是一个恒定的温度。

But outer space, you're talking about a temperature that's stagnant.

它保持不变。

It stays remaining.

环境很凉爽。

It's cool.

因此，从这个角度来看，我回看2015年的收购，心想：天啊，他们当时在和特斯拉合作。

So from that standpoint, now I look at the 2,015 acquisition, I'm saying, oh my gosh, they're working with Tesla.

这里有些门道。

There's something here.

这太完美了，一定会变成一项十亿美元的投资。

It's perfect That's gonna turn into a billion dollar investment.

我们已经知道，当SpaceX在今年某个时候上市时，它将为谷歌带来收入增长。

We already know when SpaceX has its, IPO at some point this year, they'll add to the revenue for Google.

而最后一部分是三星的部分。

And then the last piece is the Samsung part.

去年，三星确认他们已在4亿台设备中集成了Gemini。

So last year, Samsung, confirmed that they had they had Gemini in 40 no, 400,000,000 devices.

对吧？

Right?

4亿台三星设备已经搭载了Gemini。

400,000,000 Samsung devices had Gemini.

他们预测并确认，到2026年这一数字将翻倍。

They are projecting and have confirmed that that number is going to double in 2026.

他们将在8亿台设备中集成Gemini。

They're gonna have Gemini in 800,000,000 devices.

这为什么重要？

Why is that important?

你已经把苹果算在账上了。

Well, you've got Apple already on your books.

对吧？

Right?

因为你已经和Siri达成了协议。

Because you've already done the deal with Siri.

每次你在苹果上使用搜索引擎，而他们续签了协议，那都是谷歌。

Anytime you do a search engine on Apple and they've renewed that, that's going to be Google.

现在你还有三星，这是另一个竞争对手，有8亿台设备将使用你的Gemini产品。

Now you've got Samsung, which is the other competitor, 800,000,000 devices that are gonna be using your Gemini product.

把这些加进去。

You add that into it.

这就像是，好吧。

It's like, okay.

我明白他们在这里做了什么。

I see what they've done here.

对吧？

Right?

把所有这些加起来。

You add all those things up.

我从你这里拿走了一点东西。

I'm taking a little bit stuff from you.

他们夺走了苹果本该做的一切。

And they took away everything Apple should have done.

是的。

Yep.

干得漂亮。

Well well played.

好了，各位。

There you go, fellas.