趋势报告的细致洞察

嘿。

Hey.

我是安德鲁，欢迎收听 eComFuel 播客。

It's Andrew here, and welcome to the eComFuel podcast.

这档节目专为帮助七位数和八位数品牌的创业者打造卓越的事业和精彩的人生。

The show dedicated to helping 7 and 8 figure brand owners build incredible businesses and amazing lives.

今天这期节目，我们会继续第二部分，总结一下 eComFuel 趋势报告里的那些要点和感悟。

And today on the show, gonna be doing part two, wrapping up some of the lessons, learnings, thoughts, takeaways from the eComFuel trends report.

上周我先做了第一部分，讲了报告里最重要的四个收获。

I kicked off the first version of this last week where we talked about the top four takeaways from the report.

待会儿我会快速过一遍那些内容，万一你没听上期的话。

I'll go over those in just a minute here in crazy rapid fire, in case you missed that.

不过今天这期，我会聊一些没那么轰动、但更细致、同样非常重要的发现，比如商业模式的转变、关税的影响，还有我在数据里发现的一些意外情况——比如创业者财务知识和实际成果之间的关系，什么时候该从公司拿钱，运营和仓储的问题，以及电商的未来，大家是怎么看的。

But the media today is gonna be talking about some of the other maybe less headline breaking, more nuanced, but still very important takeaways across business model shifts, what happened with tariffs, some of the surprising data that I found around financial knowledge relative to outcomes for entrepreneurs, when to take money out of your business, operations, warehouses, and the future of eCom, and how people are thinking about it.

挺有意思的，你一定会喜欢。

So it's a fun one.

这里面有很多不错的内容。

A lot of good ones in here.

如果你想获取完整报告，可以访问 ecommercefuel.com/blueprint，那里有全部的研究发现、核心要点，还能下载完整的55页PDF文档。这份报告内容非常深入，不仅帮你全面了解行业现状，还告诉你该如何根据这些发现调整自己的经营策略、思考方向，另外还提供了基准对比报告和表格，你可以用它来把自己的店铺在十几个关键指标上，和同收入层级的其他店铺做对比。

If you want the full report, you can head on over to ecommercefuel.com forward slash blueprint, and that will take you to all of the findings, the big takeaways, as well as a place where you can download the entire 55 page PDF, which goes really in-depth, gives you the lay of the land, but also tells you what you should be doing for your business, how you should be thinking and reacting to these findings, as well as a benchmarking report and tables where you can compare your business performance across a dozen metrics, you know, to other stores in your revenue cohort.

里面的信息量真的很大。

So lots of good stuff there.

再次提醒，地址是 ecommercefuel.com/blueprint。

Again, that's ecommercefuel.com forward slash blueprint.

不过今天，咱们先把重点放在对话上。

But today, have you here on the mic.

那我们直接进入第二部分的核心要点。

So let's go ahead and get into the second half of the takeaways.

就像我之前说的，这些内容我不会一一展开细讲。

Like I mentioned, I'm not gonna get into these in much detail.

我会给你列出要点，再附上一两个想法。

I'm gonna give you just the the bullets with maybe one or two thoughts.

不过，如果你错过了上周的内容，为了帮大家更好地理解接下来的几点结论，我们之前提到的四大关键发现之一是：那些在付费流量上投入巨大的商家，增长速度是其他人的三倍，这点并不意外，但更惊人的是，他们的利润率并没有因此被拉低。

But in case you missed last week and also to frame up the rest of these takeaways, the big four takeaways from the report that we covered last time that heavy paid traffic spenders are growing three times as fast, not surprising, but without sacrificing their profit margins.

这一点确实出人意料。

That is surprising.

我们之前也讨论过，真正推动这种增长的并不是广告效果本身。

And we talked about how, really, it wasn't ad performance that was driving this.

而是他们的商业模式结构。

It was the structure of their business.

他们打造了一种高毛利、低运营成本的生意模式，这才让他们有足够空间去投放广告，从而取得这么好的成绩。

They designed a business with high margins, low overhead that allowed them the margin to spend on ads, and that's how they were doing so well.

第二个关键发现是，大多数店铺——72%——都已经开始使用人工智能。

The second big takeaway was most stores, 72, have adopted AI.

这没什么好惊讶的。

Not surprising.

真正让人意外的是，AI的使用并没有带来任何财务上的优势，至少在两组商家之间，没有发现任何显著的差异。

The surprising part, it did not generate any financial advantage at all, or at least there were there was no no meaningful difference between the the two cohorts.

我觉得这一点挺有意思的。

I thought this was pretty interesting.

越想越觉得有意思，就像我们昨天还有前天聊的，很多有意思的现象。

And the more I thought about it, like we talked about yesterday and actually the week before, a lot of fun things.

光是玩转好技术，却不认真思考自己到底要打造什么，太容易了。

It's easy to play around with great tech without being more disciplined about what you build.

所以，我觉得这不会是个长期趋势。

So, anyway, I think this will I think this is not a long term trend.

随着AI越来越强大，大家也越来越懂怎么把它融入业务和流程，迟早会看到回报，只是现在还没显现出来。

I think as AI gets better and as people become a little savvier about working it into their businesses and workflows, this will start to generate a payoff, but we haven't seen it yet.

第三个重点，也是最重要的一个：尽管平台上卖家数量创了新高，亚马逊的收入占比却回落到了2017年的水平。

Third takeaway, the big one, was Amazon's share of revenue fell to twenty seventeen levels despite more people than ever selling on the platform.

对我来说，这里的关键是，亚马逊已经从主要的增长渠道，变成了辅助渠道。

Big takeaway here for me is Amazon has moved from a growth channel to a supplemental channel.

以前只有一半卖家在用，现在超过三分之二都在用，可它的收入却连续三四年甚至五年都在下滑，回到了2017年的水平。

It's gone from, you know, only half of people selling on it to more than, like, two thirds of people selling on it, and yet the revenue that it continues to generate has been falling for at least for the last three or four or five years back down to 2,017 levels.

其实这份报告出来的时间还挺巧的，因为这周亚马逊宣布上调费用后，很多人都对此颇有意见。

And actually, was kinda funny the timing with this report coming out because, yeah, a lot of people had some real issue with fees going, you know, really hitting being announced from Amazon this week.

所以我觉得这正好解释了背后的原因，以及为什么会发生这种情况。

So I think that's it kinda paints in that picture and and why that's happening.

越来越多的人开始把业务重心转向自己的官网了。

I think people are getting a little starting to build their business more concentratedly on their own website.

第四个要点是，毛利润率创了新高，但净利润率却跌到了历史最低点。

And takeaway number four, gross margins hit all time highs while net margins hit all time lows.

产品端的利润在增加，而净收益端却在缩水，这真是两种利润率的鲜明对比。

People are making more on the product side and less on the net side, which was kind of a the an interesting tale of two margins.

好消息是，整体利润总额反而增加了。

The good news, the silver lining there, is more aggregate profit overall.

如果你看净利润，它的增长速度其实超过了净利率的下滑幅度。

If you look at net income, it's grown faster than the margin contraction on the net income side.

但对现在刚入行的人来说，环境确实变得更难了，这点其实也不意外。

But still, for people starting out today, it's a little bit of a trickier environment, which, you know, is not surprising.

这更成熟了，但事实就是如此。

It's more mature, but it's just what it is.

所以，这份报告的四大要点就是这些。

So those are the big four takeaways from the report.

今天我想聊聊一些新内容。

So today, new things I wanna dive into.

第一个是谈谈商业模式的变化，以及人们现在做的是什么样的生意。

First one is talking about business model shifts and kind of what has been happening with the types of businesses people are running.

进一步深入一些这些细节。

More of the detail behind some of these things.

如果你看商业模式，过去将近十年我们常关注的有这几类：制造商、经销商、混合型（两者都做）、自有品牌和代发货。

And so if you look at you look at business models, there's the ones that we usually track over the last almost decade, manufacturers, resellers, someone who's doing a hybrid, doing a little bit of both, private label, and drop shipping.

这五大类是主流。

Those are the big five.

有趣的是，过去三年，选择做制造商的人增加了50%，其他所有模式要么没变，要么都在减少。

And what is fascinating is if you look at the change in those business models over the last three years, the number of people who have gone to manufacturing has gone up 50%, and every other business model type has either stayed the same or declined.

代销商基本没变，但混合模式从20%降到了14%。

Resellers stayed about the same, but hybrid went from, like, 20 to 14%.

自有品牌从18%降到了11%。

Private label went from 18 to 11%.

代发货从9%跌到了4%。

Drop shipping went from nine to 4%.

所有人都在转向制造业，这挺有意思的。

Everyone is going to manufacturing, which is fascinating.

不是说其他模式不能做，但如果没有制造业带来的额外利润，靠广告驱动的模式会难很多。

Not to say you can't make the other ones work, but it's a lot harder to make that ads driven model work if you don't have the extra margin that comes from manufacturing.

竞争优势的变化，我们也在跟踪，情况也差不多。

Competitive advantage movement, we track the same thing as well, and you see a very similar story there.

卖自有产品的商家比例从25%上升到了35%。

The number of people selling proprietary products went from, you know, 25 to 35%.

差不多又涨了15个百分点，虽然没到50%，但也挺接近了。

You know, almost, again, almost a 15 not quite a 50% jump, but but close.

其他所有类别要么下滑，要么保持不变。

And every other category lost ground or stayed the same.

营销能力方面，人数没有变化。

Marketing expertise stayed the same.

客户服务这块，有差异化优势的人数也差不多。

Customer service, the number of people who differentiate there was was pretty, you know, similar.

行业专业知识略有下降。

Industry expertise slipped a little bit.

品牌建设和故事讲述也稍微下滑了。

Branding and storytelling slipped a little bit.

低价策略也略微退步了。

Lowest cost slipped a little bit.

所有变化都不是特别剧烈，但大家都在转向自己生产独家产品，这让我觉得挺有意思，也合情合理，看到数据后确实印证了这一点。

Everything just just and not not huge jumps, but everyone is moving to manufacturing their own proprietary products, which which I found interesting and makes sense, but but seeing the data was was confirming.

那么总结一下，这对咱们意味着什么？

So in terms of takeaways, what what does this mean for for us?

我觉得这意味着，虽然你不一定非得自己生产产品，但大概有四成的人并没有这么做。

I think it means that while you don't have to be manufacturing your own product think about, you know, about 40% -ish of people are not manufacturing their own products.

这并不意味着你就完蛋了，但你确实得认真想想，如果不能靠自产自有产品和高利润来支撑广告投入，那你的独特优势到底在哪里？

It doesn't mean you're doomed, but it does mean you need to think really seriously about how am I what is my defensible edge here if it's not being vertically integrated with a proprietary product and a higher margin that lets me spend on ads?

是定制化吗？

You know, is it customization?

说实话，我也不确定具体是什么。

Is it you know, I I don't know what it is.

这条路有好多条路可以走，但关键是你得能清楚、坚定地回答这个问题。

There's lot of different ways you can go with that, but I think that's just something you need to be able to answer very clearly and with with some conviction.

否则，事情会越来越难做。

Otherwise, it's it's gonna be hard, harder and harder to make things work.

接下来我想聊的是关税问题。

So the second thing I wanna get into is tariffs.

显然，今年关税是个大话题。

So, obviously, a huge year on tariffs.

我给2025年这一部分起的标题是‘自疫情以来最开心的一年’，这其实正好说明了大家对今年这场混乱有多反感。

The section I titled for 2025, I titled the section that report the most fun we've had since COVID, which is which about sums up how much people enjoyed this this debacle this year.

这里的大趋势是，你还记得当初关税下调的时候吗？大家一直盯着通胀，我不会说通胀低，但确实有不少人觉得，天啊，

The big story here so so you remember when tariffs were coming down, they've been everyone's looking at inflation, and I won't say inflation was low, I but think there was a meaningful number of people who thought, like, wow.

关税这么高，通胀怎么没更高一点呢？

I I'm surprised inflation is not higher with all these tariffs coming down the pipe.

我们发现，在那些受关税影响的品牌和商家中——也就是确实调高了价格的那部分人——

And what we found was that of the people, of the stores and brands that were impacted by tariffs, which means that they actually had a price increase.

并不是所有人都受到了影响。

Not everyone did.

有一部分人，数量还不少，根本没被波及。

Some people there was there was a a meaningful number that did not get impacted.

但那些确实受影响的商家，把关税带来的额外成本中58%都自己扛了，

But of the people that did get impacted by tariffs, those brands absorbed 58% of the costs, the additional product costs that were incurred, you know, that that came as a result of tariffs.

他们只把价格提高了很小一部分。

They only raised their prices.

每增加十美元的原材料成本，他们只涨了六美元，而不是全额十美元。

For every $10 increase in their materials, they only increased them $6 as opposed to the full $10.

不是的。

No.

不好意思。

Excuse me.

价格之所以定在四美元，是因为他们自己承担了六美元的利润损失。

The only reason the price is $4, they absorbed $6 in margin loss.

这也是为什么通胀没有人们预期的那么高原因之一。

And that is one of the reasons I think why inflation was not quite as high as people expected.

另一个有趣的发现是，只有4%的美国品牌因为关税而将供应链转移到美国。

Another interesting finding here was that only 4% of US brands are moving their supply chains to America as a result of the tariffs.

显然，这正是当初推出这些关税的主要理由，至少表面上看是这样。

So, obviously, that's the big impetus behind why these got rolled out or at least, you know, seemingly.

但确实，只有4.3%的企业把供应链搬到了美国。

But, yeah, 4.3% moving their supply chains to The US.

大约有10%的人在认真考虑。

About 10% are giving it serious consideration.

其实有50%根本没必要考虑，还有35%在稍微留意一下。

Pretty pretty even 50% shouldn't even consider it, and about 35% are giving it some consideration.

但真正actively在转移供应链的只有4%，这简直有点不可思议。

But only 4% actively moving, which is kinda crazy.

在关税问题上，我还发现一个有点讽刺的现象。

One other I found this slightly ironic in the tariff front.

我们问了所有企业主，2025年他们经营中最大的困难是什么。

We we asked all the story owners what their biggest struggle in business was during 2025.

我本来以为关税会排第一或第二。

I thought tariffs was gonna be number one or number two.

结果连前四都没进，可能连前三都没进。

It wasn't even the top three, maybe even the top four.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

绝对没进前三。

It was it was definitely not not top three.

企业最大的招聘难题，或者说最头疼的问题，其实一点都不意外——就是招人、组团队、管人。

So the number one hiring or the number one struggle for businesses, and this shouldn't come as a surprise, right, was hiring, teams, and people.

说到底，任何企业最棒也最棘手的部分，就是我们这些复杂的人。

Like, the best part, the most challenging part of any business is is us messy humans.

对吧？

Right?

这才是头号难题。

That's number one.

营销排第二。

Marketing was number two.

收入增长排第三。

Growth in revenue is number three.

所以实际上，你完全可以把这两者合在一起，也许增长和营销才是真正的一号难题。

So, actually, you could probably lump those together, so maybe the growth and the and the marketing is actually number one.

但有5%的人说，关税是他们面临的最大挑战。

But tariffs, 5% of us said that tariffs were the biggest challenge.

对我来说，这简直是一把双刃剑。

And so to me, it's kind of this double edged sword.

对吧？

Right?

一方面，这其实是好事。

Like, on one hand, that's great.

关税并没有毁掉这一年。

Tariffs did not kill the year.

对吧？

Right?

但另一方面，你也得承认，做生意真不容易。

On the other hand, it's like, man, business is hard.

如果从整体来看，关税根本没几个人提到，几乎可以忽略不计。

If if this is you know, tariffs barely even got a mention in in the grand scheme of things.

这提醒我们，作为创业者，每天在eComFuel里外忙活的这些事，确实都不容易。

It's a good reminder that a lot of the stuff that we do as entrepreneurs every day in and out in eComFuel and otherwise is is challenging.

所以，对自己宽容一点吧。

So so give yourself some grace there.

那这一切到底意味着什么？

So so what does this all mean?

说这些数据、讲生意有多难，其实都是在说明一个道理。

You know, giving these stats numbers, talking about how business is hard.

谢谢安德鲁，这真是让人惊叹。

Thanks, Andrew, for wow.

这简直就是商业洞察的入门精华课。

These are just masterclass in in in insights one zero one.

我觉得最关键的启示是，如果你是个店主，而且确实被关税影响了，那你就该涨价，而且可能还得涨得更多一些。

I think what this means the biggest takeaway here, if you're a store owner, if you were impacted by tariffs, is is to raise your prices and probably to raise them more.

最起码，确保你覆盖了这部分利润损失。

At a bare minimum, make sure you are covering that margin hit.

这就像我们上周聊的，说到毛利，你知道，大家的利润其实变少了。

And that means what as we talked about last week, and I talked about the top gross, you know, profit margins, you know, people are making less.

所以，把价格调高一点，至少把这100%的损失补回来，非常重要。

And so being able to raise those prices to recoup a 100% at least to that is is is super important.

也许你已经做过一些测试了。

And and maybe you've done the testing.

也许你已经尝试过了。

Maybe you've gone through.

也许你正好碰上了关税冲击。

Maybe you got hit with the tariff.

也许你做过一些非正式的测试，发现：嘿，

Maybe you've done some quasi scientific testing to say, hey.

好吧。

Okay.

我们试过把成本转嫁出去。

We tried to pass this on.

但在优化两到八周的利润时，发现根本行不通。

It didn't work when we're optimizing for profit across a, you know, you know, two, four, six, eight week period.

后来我们意识到，不涨价反而能让利润表现更好。

We realized we couldn't pass it on, and our our profit profile was better by not raising prices.

明白了。

Okay.

如果你已经这么做了，那太好了。

If you've done that, awesome.

你不用再听我的了。

Don't listen to me anymore.

但我猜，我们大多数人因为担心后果，还没敢把价格涨到足以测试极限的程度，来挽回那些被压缩的利润。

But I'm guessing the vast majority of us in this situation have not raised prices to the point to really push to see how far we can go to try to recoup recoup that margin because we're afraid of it.

这确实不容易。

It's hard.

这确实让人害怕。

It's scary.

我懂，我经历过。

I've been there.

但我也经历过提价之后，才发现这通常是企业里最有效、最快能带来改变的手段。

But I've also been on the backside of raising prices and realizing that's the best thing usually in terms of the strongest, most powerful lever in your business to impact change the fastest.

所以，总的来说，这就是我想跟大家聊的提价这件事，尤其是如果你被关税冲击得比应该的更严重——从统计上看，你很可能就是这样。

So, anyway, that is my little TED talk here on raising your prices as a result just in general, but also especially if you got got hit and absorbed more of those tariff costs than you should have, which statistically, there's a good chance you did.

好了。

Alright.

接下来我们聊聊财务智慧及其影响。

Let's move on to financial intelligence and the implications.

说到这个话题，我确实有偏见。

This was so coming into this area, I am biased.

我有财务方面的背景。

I've got a financial background.

如果你是个木匠，看什么都像钉子，我承认我就是这样。

If you're a carpenter, you think everything looks like a nail, guilty as charged.

我并不是客观地来看这个问题。

I'm not coming into this objectively.

但看到我们收集到的数据，我感觉自己的观点得到了印证。

But I feel a little vindicated with the data that we pulled.

今年我问了经营者和老板们一个问题：请用一到五颗星给自己在财务认知方面打个分。

One of the things I asked this year was for operators and owners to rank themselves in terms of their financial intelligence out of five stars.

从一颗星到五颗星。

So one one star to five stars.

然后我把这些评分和他们的经营表现、个人账户里的资金储备，或者公司账上的现金余额做了对比。

And I then was able to take those rankings and compare them to performance of their businesses, the amount of kinda runway they had in the bank personally, or just, you know, money in the bank in terms of cash reserves.

看到结果差异的时候，我真的挺震惊的。

And it was really eye opening to see the difference.

我一会儿会讲具体数字，但最大的发现是：你可能会觉得，从一分涨到三分、四分，应该会有巨大提升。

The biggest thing I'll get to the numbers here in a minute, but the big takeaway is you would think that going from, like, obviously, going from, like, a one to a three or one to a four would give you a massive jump.

对吧？

Right?

这还用说吗。

Like, no brainer.

很合理。

Makes sense.

但最让我意外的是，从四星跳到五星时，各项指标出现了大幅跃升。

But I think what was most surprising is the jump from going from a four to a five is where you saw just a huge increase in metrics.

意思是，够好还不够好。

Meaning, good enough isn't good enough.

还不错，其实还是漏掉了大量机会，也许这里的八二法则并不适用。

Pretty good is still leaving a ton on the table, and that maybe the eighty twenty, you know, Pareto principle here doesn't apply.

比如，那些自评财务知识为三星的人，按企业规模调整后的平均净利率约为8.9%。

For example, if you look at, you know, people who had a three out of five self rated financial knowledge, their average net margin controlled for business size was about 8.9%.

四星的是9.7%，从三星到四星确实有小幅提升。

Four out of five was 9.7, so you get a little bit of a bump going from three to four.

但当你从五分中得五分时，数字直接从9.7跳到了14.3。

But you go to five out of five, and it jumps from a 9.7 to a 14.3.

这一下子涨了将近45%，而之前从三到四才涨了11%左右。

You're up, like, 45% when before you had maybe, you know, 11% jump.

所以情况是一样的。

So when same thing.

当你从四分提升到五分时，你的现金储备直接翻了一倍。

When you go from a four to five out of from runway, your runway doubles in terms of cash in the bank.

你的净利润增长也明显提升了。

Your net income growth goes up significantly.

你提取资本的效率也高多了。

You're extracting capital at a higher rate.

所以对我来说，这意味着什么呢？我觉得，除了对市场和产品有超深的理解之外，能让你的财务表现更上一层楼的，就是真正精通财务。

So for me, what this means is it's you know, when I think about what's important in a business, I would argue, apart from understanding your market and your product exceptionally well, the next best thing you can do for your financial performance for your business is to deeply under to be deeply financially fluent.

这里面涉及的东西可不少。

So a lot of things there.

那具体该怎么做呢？

How do you do that?

得好好学习一下，比如看懂你的财务报表——利润表、资产负债表、现金流量表，还要学会做现金流预测，这特别关键。

Studying up on this, you know, understanding your your financial statements, the income statement, the balance sheet, cash flows, understanding how to do a cash flow forecast, that's hugely important.

电商企业特别烧钱，我该说，如果你不盯紧现金流动的话。

Ecom businesses eat money, and if you're not eat cash, I should say.

如果你不提前预测现金流，迟早会出大问题。

And if you're not, you know, forecasting your cash flow, you can get in real trouble.

这里面门道很多。

There's a lot there.

所以花时间从四分提升到五分，绝对值得。

So worth spending the time to go from that four to five out of five.

我其实专门做了一门课。

It actually built a course.

如果你一直听这个播客，应该记得，我们在2026年第一季度刚结束了一整套关于财务精通的系列内容。

If you've been listening to the podcast for a while, we just wrapped up in the first half of or the first quarter of twenty twenty six, our series on financial mastery.

如果你错过了，我已经把这些内容整理成了一份PDF课程和一系列资料。

If you missed that, I bundled that all together into a a PDF course and and a series.

听众可以免费获取。

It's free for listeners.

从零开始，一直到如何理解财务报表、该关注哪些重点、为什么应该在业务之外投资，以及在特定阶段如何转变思维，全都涵盖在内。

It takes you from everything from just getting started to walking all the way through how to think about understanding financial statements, where to focus, why you should invest outside your business, how to change mindsets at certain point.

这算是一个比较全面的指南，有兴趣的话你可以拿去用。

It is kind of a comprehensive thing, and you can take that if you'd like.

更多详情请访问 ecommercefuel.com/mastery。

Ecommercefuel.com/mastery is where you can learn more about that.

好的。

Alright.

接下来是资本退出部分。

Next section, capital extraction.

其实我应该管这个叫股息。

I should probably call this dividends.

资本提取听起来像是加拿大某地一种恶劣的采矿行为。

Capital extraction sounds like some kind of abusive mining operation somewhere in Canada.

把钱从企业里抽出来，不管是叫分红还是资本提取，怎么讲都行。

Pulling money out of your business, dividends, capital extraction, however you wanna call it.

这其实挺有意思的，我在这项研究里以前没怎么关注过这一点。

Really interesting, something I haven't looked at before in this study.

这里的关键是，大多数老板要等到企业年收入达到七位数中后期，才能真正拿到像样的财务回报。

And the big takeaway here, we'll get a nuance here, is that most owners are not seeing financial rewards from their business until they hit at least meaningful financial rewards, I should say, until the mid to upper seven figures.

那为什么会这样呢？

And is it you know, why?

这听起来有点让人泄气。

It's a little disheartening.

但如果你是做电商的，你应该明白，随着业务增长，你在不断积累企业的整体价值。

But if you're an eCom owner, you know you're building a lot of enterprise value as you grow.

企业价值，就是你公司本身的估值。

Enterprise value is the value of your business.

如果你今天转手卖掉，你所建立的这个生意在市场上是有价值的。

If you turned around today and sold it, you would what you're building has value on the market.

早期可能很难套现，因为你得把整个企业都卖了，但它确实有价。

It might be hard to to extract because you have to sell the whole business early on, but it has value.

所以你并不是在白干。

So it's not like you're doing this for free.

但我们现在想探讨的是，不卖企业的情况下，你什么时候才能开始从中拿钱出来？

But in terms of us looking at how can you you know, when can you start taking money out of the business without selling it?

这才是我们研究的重点。

That's what the was really the focus here.

刚起步的时候，我们发现，几乎没人年收入低于一百万美元时会拿分红。

When you're new, you know, you're you're not we found that almost almost no one that was under a million dollars was taking dividends.

年收入百万以下还拿可观分红的人，只有6%，大概二十分之一。

The number of people under 1,000,000 taking meaningful dividends was 6%, you know, about one in twenty.

这其实很合理。

And that makes sense.

你才刚起步。

You're brand new.

你增长得很快。

You're growing fast.

这时候该把所有钱都再投回去。

You should be reinvesting everything.

如果你增长得这么快，那基本上拿不出钱来——超过一半的情况都这样。就算你已经谈好了融资，也很难抽出资金，因为每一分钱都得用来支撑不断膨胀的库存和运营需求。

If you're growing quickly, that also is an area where, you know, 50% plus, you're not gonna be extracting capital because it's really difficult to finance a fast growing eComFuel business even if you have great financing lined up because everything is going back in to to financing and paying for that inventory that continues to grow and grow and grow and grow.

所以在两端——起步阶段和成熟阶段——人们都不会抽走资金。

So at the two ends of the barbell, people aren't pulling money out.

但等你规模上去了，情况就不同了。

It's much more possible as you scale.

我们分析数据后发现，最佳平衡点在七位数中期到高位，年增长率在25%左右或更低的时候。这时候既能保证净利润增长，又能拿点分红，同时对未来充满信心——这其实是个不错的指标，说明你对业务前景感觉不错。

And we actually, looking at the data, the sweet spot that I found between balancing your net income growth, taking some dividends, having an optimistic outlook for the future, which is kind of a rough proxy for how how good do I feel about the future of this business, was in the mid to upper seven figure range and having growth that was 25 ish percent or lower.

这个阶段最理想：既能从公司拿钱，又不会伤及未来发展，还能腾出资金去投资公司以外的机会。

And that seemed like it was a spot where a sweet spot, taking money out of the business without shooting yourself in the foot for future prospects, but also giving yourself a chance to invest outside the business.

如果你上过财务精通课，或者看过之前的节目，你应该知道，我坚信一旦你积累了一些势头、规模和稳定性，就该开始把资金从核心业务中抽出来，做些多元化配置了。

That was one of if you do this with the financial mastery class or you you caught the episodes before, I'm a big believer in once you build up some momentum and some scale and get a little stability, it's so important to start pulling some money out and diversifying away from your core business.

你可以去了解一下这门课或者之前的播客内容，这可是我深信不疑的观点。

You can check out the course or the the previous podcast on that, but it's a deep conviction of mine.

那这里的核心启示到底是什么？

So so what is the takeaway here?

如果你刚起步，别为这事焦虑。

I think the takeaway is don't sweat this if you're an upstart.

如果你决定要快速扩张，也别为这事纠结。

Don't sweat this if you've decided to grow really quickly.

但如果你已经做到七位数中后期，增长也趋于平稳，那就该定期从公司里拿一些钱出来了。

But if you're in that phase, mid to upper seven figures, moderated growth, you should be taking some money regularly out of your business.

不一定拿得太多，但至少要拿点合理的分红，小到中等规模的分红就行。

Maybe not insane amounts, but meaning, you know, a moderate dividend, small to moderate dividends.

你还可以回头看看我们整理在趋势报告里的那些基准数据，了解一下不同增长阶段的店铺通常会提取多少资金。

And you can actually check to see again, going back to those those benchmarking tables that we put together in the trends report, you can get a sense of how much different stores at different levels of growth are taking out.

如果觉得有帮助，可以参考一下那些数据。

So reference those if that's helpful.

但如果你还没考虑过这一点，那就该想想了，尤其是在这个阶段，别忘了把个人财富从企业中分离开来，做些分散投资。

But if you're not if you're not thinking about that, you should, and you should also be thinking about diversifying if you're in that phase, your net worth outside of your business.

我觉得这些就是本部分的核心要点。

So those, think, are the takeaways for this section.

好了。

Alright.

最后说说运营。

Finally, operations.

仓库、叉车、团队架构、库存周转率——这些看似枯燥却特别重要的事儿。

The super sexy world of warehouses and forklifts and and team structures and inventory turns, all this fun stuff.

这里的关键发现是：拥有自有仓库的企业，增长速度明显更慢。

Headline here was that warehouse ownership was correlated with significantly slower growth.

我可没说这是因果关系。

And I'm not gonna say causation.

我不敢说仓库所有权直接导致了这个结果，但这里的相关性实在太强了。

I I don't wanna say warehouse ownership causes this, but there was an there was such a strong correlation here.

如果你拥有自己的仓库，平均增长率大概只有4%。

And if you owned a warehouse, your average growth was about 4%.

但如果你是租用或外包仓库，营收增长率通常在30%到35%之间，有些情况甚至平均提升了近九倍。

And if you either leased or outsourced your warehouse, your growth your revenue growth was somewhere in the range of 30 to 35%, almost, you know, nine x increase in some cases on average.

这真的让我大吃一惊。

And I just this blew me away.

我琢磨着这个问题，也注意到一些反馈——和人聊天时听到的，或者网上看到的评论，挺有意思的。

And I think, you know, thinking about this, I I don't know if it is a it was funny seeing some of the responses I've I've heard anecdotally chatting, have conversations with people, or seeing some responses online.

至少有两三位朋友跟我说，他们在实际经历中也观察到类似的情况。

I've had at least two or three people say they've seen this in their own experience.

一旦你在仓库上投入大量资金和精力，就没多少余力去关注业务增长了。

People you know, once you start investing a lot in the warehouse in terms of capital, attention, things like that, you don't have the attention to focus on the growth side of things.

我觉得这可能是其中一个原因。

I think that's maybe one aspect of it.

也许另一个原因是，当你业务的增长回报率开始下降，或者推出新产品变得困难时，增长陷入停滞，这时候自己拥有仓库可能就成了更合理的选择，因为其他投资机会的收益变低了。

Maybe another aspect of it is once you get to a business where your ROI for growth is declining or for launching new products, so you get stalled out, owning your own warehouse is potentially a place that makes more sense to start putting cash as your opportunity cost other places comes down.

这可能是其中一个因素。

That could be one.

我不太确定具体原因是什么，但增长和仓储模式之间的关联确实非常明显。

I'm not sure I'm not sure what it is, but it was a pretty stark correlation between between growth.

还有一点值得考虑，就是企业的持久性。

One other thing too is is to consider is, like, durability of a business.

比如你可能增长不快，但因为你必须自己发货，而且你卖的是上世纪七十年代到九十年代生产的模型火车专用替换零件，种类全得离谱，虽然增长慢，但你能卖很高的溢价，而这就要求你必须有个超大的仓库。

If you've got you know, maybe you're not growing as fast and you own your own warehouse because you have to because you fulfill and you have the world's largest selection of custom replacement parts for for model trains built in the, you know, nineteen seventies and nineteen nineties, And you're not growing as fast, but you can charge an insane premium for him, but that means you have to have a huge warehouse.

说实话，这种企业的护城河有多深，我是没法量化评估的。

I mean, that that I can't measure the defensibility of a business.

不过我刚才说了这么多前提条件，但我觉得这个现象确实值得留意。

Anyway, I'm I'm giving a lot of caveats here, but I thought that was an interesting thing to keep in mind.

另外还有几个有意思的地方，比如库存压力和业绩表现之间的关系。

Couple other things that were interesting is the inventory burden you have versus performance.

你的库存占收入的比例，这点其实不难理解——库存越多，不仅占用的营运资金越多，你的主营业务收入增长也会越慢，利润率也会随之下降。

So your inventory as a percent of revenue and probably not surprising here, but the more inventory you have, not only do the more working capital do you have tied up, but your growth decreases in terms of your top line revenue growth, more inventory you have, and your margin decreases as well.

如果你的库存不到年收入的5%，你的净利润率大概能到11.5%。

So if you're, you know, less than 5% of your if your inventory makes up less than 5% of your annual revenue, you've got 11 and a half percent net margins.

但如果库存超过20%，净利润率就只剩一半左右，大约6.5%。

If you're 20% plus, you're at, you know, half of that 6.5% net margins.

而且，库存越多，你去年经历‘最艰难一年’的可能性就越高，这种关系几乎是线性的。

And you're drastically more likely in a linear fashion to say you had the hardest year ever last year, the more inventory you have.

库存周转率也是同样的道理，也就是你一年内把库存卖完并补货的次数。

Same thing with inventory turns, how quickly you turn your inventory.

库存周转率指的是，一年里你平均库存被销售和替换的频率。

So inventory turn is how often, how many times you sell through your average inventory throughout the year.

这里有个有意思的现象：你可能觉得周转越快越好，这确实没错，但前提是每年周转在五到六次以内。

And one thing was interesting here was you would think always faster is better, and that's very true up to about five to six inventory turns per year.

但一旦超过七次，收入增长和净利润增长就会急剧下滑，这一点让我觉得挺值得琢磨的。

But then once you go over seven, the revenue growth and net income growth fall off a cliff, which to me was kinda interesting in terms of how you interpret that.

也许是你采购量不够，没达到起订量，所以没能拿到应有的利润率。

Maybe that means that you're not buying in enough quantity and hitting MOQs to get those margin, you know, get the margin you need.

也可能是你太追求准时制生产，反而把潜在利润放过了。

Maybe it's just because you're such a just in time company that you're leaving that on the table.

我不太确定这背后的原因，但看起来每年库存周转五到六次是最理想的。

I'm not sure what that means, but it seemed like the sweet spot for inventory turns was five to six times per year.

最后，从运营角度来说，我再讲最后一点，然后我们再聊具体能怎么做。

And then finally, operationally, last point here before I get to actually what you can do about this.

固定成本，我们上次聊过一点，就是怎么打造一个能支撑大额广告投入的公司。

Fixed cost, we talked about this a little bit last last time in terms of building a company that can support heavy advertising spend.

但固定成本，尤其是管理费用越高，对业绩和净利润的拖累就越明显。

But the more fixed costs you have of in terms of overhead, the more it hurt your performance and net margins.

看起来临界点大概在20%左右。

And it seemed like the cutoff here was about 20%.

如果你的运营成本超过收入的20%，比如你年收入一千万的话。

So if you went over 20% of your overhead as a percent of revenue, you do let's say, do 10,000,000 per year in revenue.

如果你每年的固定成本超过两百万美元，那你的利润率就会明显受到挤压。

If you have over, you know, $2,000,000 or over of overhead per year, that's where you really start to see a real hit in terms of margins getting compressed.

你可以参考完整报告里的基准指南，获得更细致的数据，看看自己处在什么水平。

So quick rule of thumb, you can do the benchmarking guides in the full report to give you a real granular data on where you are.

但简单来说，如果固定成本超过收入的20%，你就得引起重视了。

But rough rule of thumb, if your overhead's over 20%, that's that's something you should start worrying about.

对我来说，最关键的提醒就是：一定要狠心控制产品目录的规模。

The big takeaway here for me is be ruthless about your catalog size.

对吧？

Right?

每一个库存单位都需要投入资金，你得仔细分析它是否能在贡献毛利和广告投入上真正赚钱。

Like, every SKU you have demands working capital space analysis to make sure it's profitable on a contribution margin advertising.

所以一定要认真评估你的产品数量，确保每一件商品都在创造价值。

So really think carefully about your your SKU size and and make sure things are earning earning their keep.

也要慎重考虑，你是否真的需要自己运营仓库。

Be thoughtful about if you really need to run and own your own warehouse.

对吧？

Right?

有时候确实得自己做。

Like, sometimes you do.

第三方物流 outsourcing 真有弊端，尤其是你的库存单位越多，就越难做好。

There is a real downside to outsourcing in three p l, and the more SKUs you have, the harder that is to do well.

你的业务越定制化，就越难做好。

And the more custom your business, the harder it is to do well.

但自己拥有仓库和你的增长速度之间，确实有很强的相关性。

But there's a real correlation between owning a warehouse and how quickly you're gonna grow.

这纯粹是事实。

It's just just just the facts.

再说一遍，运营成本。

So and then, again, overhead.

我之前提过，但一定要把固定成本控制在百分之二十以下，这是基本准则。

I already mentioned it, but make sure you keep those fixed overheads at, you know, rule of thumb, 20% or below.

所以最后，展望未来，人们最关注的是什么？

So finally, looking forward into the future, what are priorities for people?

我特别喜欢这一点。

I love this.

我把这一部分命名为乐观、精简，以及押注人工智能。

I titled the section optimistic, lean, and betting on AI.

有80%的店主对未来持乐观态度，这一点我很欣赏。

80% of store owners are optimistic about the future, and I love this.

说实话，如果你想想2026年的电商和过去五年相比，虽然不会觉得轻松，但确实能看到一些希望的曙光。

Like, this is you And I will say, if you think about eCom looking forward in 2026 versus the last five years, it does not feel easy, but it feels like there are some silver linings of hope here.

人工智能确实还没给大多数人带来明显的投资回报。

AI, yes, hasn't produced a meaningful ROI yet for people.

但要是拿电商和软件行业做个比较，过去六个月我宁愿选电商。

But if you think about the industries that are probably compared to relatively compared to software, I'd much rather be in eCom over the last six months.

我觉得人工智能在电商领域更有潜力提升运营效率，尤其是在竞争压力这么大的情况下，比在软件行业更明显。

I think AI has the potential to actually add value in terms of, you know, operational efficiencies to eCommerce much more than software in terms of, you know, the the especially competitive pressures.

说实话，电商的好处在于它有实实在在的线下部分。

I mean, the nice thing about eCommerce is that you get a real world component.

对吧？

Right?

你可以把AI用在内部流程和营销上，只要它能落地、能算清回报曲线，同时你还能靠着实体世界的业务守住一方天地——这点AI是动摇不了的。

You can take AI, assuming it gets implemented well and you can figure out the ROI curve on here, and help it with internal processes, with marketing, while you still have this defensible mode of something in the physical world that AI is not gonna disrupt.

我觉得这正是未来AI故事里特别有意思的一点。

So I think that's a cool part of the AI story in the future.

我觉得关税问题现在还是挺乱的，尤其是最高法院刚出了个判决，加上其他一些因素，但看起来它未必会一直卡着整个行业脖子。

I think, you know, tariffs are still kind of a hot mess with the Supreme Court decision and a few other things, but it seems like there's a potential for those not just being a stranglehold and a and an anchor on the industry.

是的。

Yeah.

而且总的来说，这个行业的人对将来都挺乐观的，这真让人挺欣慰的。

And and I think just in general, the the community is optimistic about the future, which was which is super cool to see.

我觉得2026年最优先的事，就是AI和自动化。

I think number one priority for 2026 was AI and automation.

第二是营销和广告。

Number two is marketing and advertising.

第三是简化、聚焦，减少商品种类，把运营流程精简一下。

Number three was simplify, focus, and cut SKUs, so really kind of streamlining those operations.

这三大重点就是这些。

Those are the top three.

还有一件挺有意思的事，就是企业的乐观情绪几乎和收入成正比增长。

And and one thing that was interesting was the hopefulness by revenue scaled almost exactly linearly.

从一百万增长到五千万以上，每提升一个收入层级，乐观情绪都会有一点点上升，虽然幅度不大，但每次都有提升。

If you go from 1,000,000 up to 50,000,000 plus, at every revenue boost, there was a you know, it wasn't huge, but there was a slight uptick every every time in terms of hopefulness for the future.

这倒也说得通。

Kinda makes sense.

对吧？

Right?

企业规模越大，根基越稳，自然就越有底气。

Like, bigger you are, the more established you are.

东西真不好做起来。

It's hard to get stuff built.

我觉得这点挺有意思的。

I found that kinda interesting.

我们来看看，谁对未来更乐观，谁更悲观。

Close on this in terms of who's optimistic for the future and who's pessimistic.

我把这两类人分开了：一类是给未来希望打9分或10分的，另一类是打6分及以下的。

I I I took those two groups, people who rated their hope for the future at a nine out of nine out of 10 or 10 out of 10, and the pessimists who rated it for six out of 10 or lower.

如果看他们的数据，乐观的老板转化率明显高得多。

If you look at their metrics, conversion rate for the optimistic owners was was significantly higher.

乐观的老板周转库存更快，大约快了三分之一。

The optimistic owners turned their inventory more quickly, about 33% faster.

他们的库存占收入的比例更低。

They had less inventory as a percent of revenue.

他们租仓库的可能性高出一半。

They were 50% more likely to lease a warehouse.

他们拥有仓库的可能性低了50%。

They were 50% less likely to own a warehouse.

也许这个计算对不对啊？我这么现场算的对吗？

Maybe that math is is, you know am I doing that math right on the fly?

可能有人拿报告指出我错了，但大致差不离。

Someone probably called me out with, like, a report, but that's pretty close.

他们的固定运营成本更低。

They had less overhead fixed costs.

所以，当你展望未来时，效率是乐观情绪背后一个关键因素。

And so, you know, when you think about looking forward, efficiency is a big theme for for optimism looking forward into the future.

听了我这两期播客，你可能不觉得意外，但正好可以做个收尾。

Probably not surprised after my my two podcasts, but probably a good thing to kind of cap us on here.

今年的报告就到这里了。

So that's a wrap on this year's report.

另外，热烈祝贺尤里和整个社区。

Also, big congratulations to Yuri and the community.

他赢得了一张全球任何目的地的往返商务舱机票。

He won the round trip business class ticket anywhere in in the world.

恭喜您，先生。

Congratulations, sir.

感谢您参与社区和这项调查，也感谢所有参与的人。

Thank you for being a part of the community and and the survey, and everyone who participated.

填这份问卷花了不少时间。

Takes a lot of time to fill this out.

每年我都会提前记下一大堆想改进的地方，谢谢大家给我提出的反馈和建议。

Every year, you know, I already have a bunch of notes for things that I want to do better next year, so thank you everyone who's given me feedback and suggestions.

我们始终努力让这份报告更有价值、更准确，做起来也很有乐趣，非常感谢每一位参与的人。

Always always aiming to make this more helpful and more accurate, but always fun to do and really appreciate everyone who was involved.

希望对您有帮助。

Hope it was helpful.

聚焦真正重要的事。

Forging what matters.