摇滚与统治：日本首位女首相

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《经济学人》。

The Economist.

大家好，欢迎收听《经济学人》的‘情报’栏目。我是主持人罗茜·布鲁尔。每个工作日，我们为您提供塑造世界事件的新视角。美国以移民之国著称，但您可能听说唐纳德·特朗普对此并不热衷。他的零移民政策在遏制入境人流方面成效显著。

Hello, and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I'm your host, Rosie Bloor. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. America is known as a land of immigrants, but you may have heard that Donald Trump isn't so keen on them. His zero migration policy has been remarkably effective in stemming the inwards flow.

问题是，这将产生什么影响？德国拥有众多传统咖啡馆，但一家快速扩张的连锁咖啡店正在搅动市场。其店铺内饰极简，提供超快服务。关键的是，价格还非常低廉。但首先——

Question is, what impact will that have? And Germany has its fair share of traditional coffee houses, but a fast growing chain of coffee shops is stirring things up. Life among people has stark interiors and offers super quick service. Crucially, it's also really cheap. But first.

保守派强硬人物高市早苗成为日本第104任首相，也是首位女性首相。

Takaiichi Sanaya, a conservative hardliner, has become Japan's hundred and fourth prime minister and the first woman to hold the job.

诺亚·斯奈德是我们的东亚分社社长。

Noah Snyder is our East Asia bureau chief.

她于本月早些时候当选执政党自民党党首。经过数周政治博弈后，今日在国会正式成为日本新任领导人。她的当选标志着这个全球最保守的民主国家在性别平等道路上迈出历史性一步。但这位安保鹰派、财政鸽派兼极端社会保守主义者高井一承诺，将使日本政治重心向右倾斜。

She was elected as the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party earlier this month. And after a few weeks of political wrangling, she emerged in the diet as the country's new leader today. Her confirmation marks a historic step forward for gender equality in in one of the world's most patriarchal democracies. But Takaiichi, a security hawk, a fiscal dove, and an arch social conservative, promises to shift Japan's political center of gravity to the right.

她听起来是个略显意外的首相人选。她是如何登上权力巅峰的？

She sounds like a slightly surprising choice for prime minister. How did she get to the top?

罗茜，她确实是个非典型的首相人选，我认为这是自民党危机时刻的产物。近年来该党丑闻不断，先后失去参众两院多数席位，如今领导着少数派执政联盟，眼看着支持率被各派系的民粹新兴政党蚕食。

She is an unusual choice for prime minister, Rosie, and I think it's the product of a moment of crisis for the LDP. In recent years, the party has lurched from scandal to scandal. They've lost their majorities in both the upper and lower houses. So now they're leading a a minority ruling coalition. And they're seeing support seep to populist upstart parties across the political spectrum.

因此党内迫切寻求变革。实际上今年自民党竞选口号直白地用了#改变自民党#的标签，他们需要一位打破常规的领袖，重塑政党形象，以期重掌日本政坛主导权。

And so the party was really looking for someone different. In fact, the slogan of this year's LDP campaign was quite literally hashtag change LDP. So they wanted someone who would break the mold and help to redefine the party's image with voters and and hopefully reestablish its grip on Japan's politics.

关于她的背景我们知道些什么？

And what do we know about her background?

高井一出身中产家庭，父母分别是警察和上班族。她在日本西部古都奈良长大，不像多数日本领导人那样具有政治世家背景。她就读于公立大学。

So Takayichi hails from a middle class family. Her parents were a police officer and a salaryman. She grew up in Nara, an ancient capital in Western Japan. So she's not a political blue blood like many of Japan's leaders tend to be. She went to a public university.

事实上她曾骑摩托车上学，在重金属乐队担任鼓手，是硬摇滚乐迷和卡拉OK发烧友，早期还因演唱热门摇滚歌曲登上电视节目。她短暂担任过新闻主播，九十年代甚至出演过电视广告。后来她成为已故长期执政首相安倍晋三的门徒和忠实追随者。

She, in fact, rode her motorcycle to classes. She played drums in a heavy metal band. She's a big fan of hard rock and an avid singer of karaoke, and she even appeared on Japanese TV early in her career singing a hit rock song. She worked briefly as a television anchor and even appeared in some commercials on TV in the nineties. She became a kind of acolyte and really a follower of Abe Shinzo, the late prime minister, long serving Japanese prime minister.

他们共同持有一种以民族自豪感和复兴意识为核心的日本愿景，实质上是在宣告日本已强势回归。与此同时，她表示自己的政治榜样是玛格丽特·撒切尔。可以说她将自己塑造成了铁娘子形象。她对国家怀有雄心勃勃的计划，但关键在于她能否落实这些计划、能在位多久以及政府的稳定性如何。

And they shared a vision for Japan focused on sort of national pride and a sense of revival, trying to essentially say Japan is is back. She, at the same time, has said that her political role model is Margaret Thatcher. So she kind of fashions herself as an iron lady, if you will. And she has ambitious plans for her country. The the question is really whether she's gonna be able to implement them, how long she will last in office, and and how stable her government will be.

那么听起来她有点像民粹主义者，对吗？

So she sounds like something of a populist. Is that right?

从风格上来说可能是这样。她作风张扬、立场鲜明且言辞直率，具有我们在全球其他地区看到的新保守派民粹主义者的气质。但我不认为应该将她与美国MAGA阵营或欧盟崛起的疑欧派政党归为一类。那些势力本质上是反体制的。

I think in stylistic terms, it might be right. She's kind of brash and polarizing and and plain speaking. So she has the aesthetic of many other new conservative sort of populists that we've seen elsewhere in the world. But I don't think it's right to lump her in with the MAGA types or the Eurosceptic parties that have risen in the European Union. In many ways, those parties, those forces are anti establishment.

他们想要颠覆现状，但高市早苗却是体制内核心人物。作为日本长期执政党的资深议员，她更像是传统保守派，致力于维护现有秩序。

They want to overturn the status quo. But Takaiichi is very much of the establishment. She's a a long time lawmaker in the long time ruling party in Japan. And so she's more of a kind of an old school conservative in that sense. She wants to preserve the status quo.

我认为自民党选择她，实际上是为了应对日本政坛真正民粹主义者崛起的挑战。

And I think the LDP turned to her really to fend off the challenge from the true populists who are emerging on Japan's political scene.

你说她属于体制派但又有雄心壮志，这在实际政策中意味着什么？

So she's of the establishment but has ambitious plans, you say. What does that actually mean in practice?

我认为她的国家愿景很大程度上源自其政治导师安倍晋三前首相。这包含三大要素：一是更强硬的安全政策立场，加强日本防卫能力并增加安保支出；二是重启安倍经济学议程，实施宽松财政货币政策配合模糊的增长战略；最后则是强硬的社会保守主义路线。

So I think her vision for the country owes a lot to her mentor and political patron, the late prime minister Abe. So there's three components to this. One is a more hawkish stance on security policy, beefing up Japan's defenses, spending more on the security forces. Second is a kind of reprisal of Abe's economic agenda, a new Abenomics, if you will, with loose fiscal and monetary policy and a kind of nebulous growth strategy. And finally, a hardline social conservatism.

虽然她是日本首位女首相，但她很可能不会成为一位女权主义首相。例如，在日本一场重大的文化战争议题——是否允许已婚夫妇保留各自姓氏——上，她站在保守派一边。她支持现状，即已婚夫妇应使用相同姓氏，而实践中这几乎99%的情况下意味着采用夫姓。

While she is Japan's first female prime minister, she's probably not going to be a feminist prime minister. For example, she's lined up on the conservative side of a big culture war issue in Japan, which is whether or not to allow married couples to keep separate surnames. She favors the status quo, which is that married couples should have the same surname in practice that almost 99% of the time means the male surname.

你说国家安全对她很重要，她将在这方面投入更多资金。这对她的外交政策意味着什么？

And you say that national security is important to her and she's gonna be spending more on it. What does that mean for her foreign policy?

我认为这有几个方面，罗茜。一是增加对日本自卫队（即武装力量）的投入，甚至可能超出日本现有计划——即在2027年前将国防开支提升至GDP的2%。二是她与美国的关系，美国是日本关键的安全盟友，但至少在特朗普执政期间，这段关系颇为棘手。高市对特朗普与其前任达成的强制性贸易和投资协议感到愤怒。同时，她也清楚日本出于自身安全需要离不开美国。

I think there's a few elements to this, Rosie. One is spending more on Japan's Self Defense Forces, the the armed forces, perhaps even more than the already existing plans which Japan is is pursuing to raise its share of defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027. The second has to do with her relations with America, Japan's key security ally, and a tricky relationship, to say the least, with president Trump in office. Takaiichi bristles at the coercive trade and investment deal that Trump agreed to with her predecessor. At the same time, she knows that Japan needs America for its own security purposes.

因此，她在保持与美国紧密关系的同时，追求更多自主权和更独立的立场。这又是一场微妙的平衡。最后一点涉及日本与邻国的关系。高市强硬保守世界观的一部分是对日本战时历史的修正主义观点，这种观点将20世纪上半叶日本的侵略行为视为对西方殖民主义的回应，并且在许多邻国眼中，她对日本帝国政权犯下的罪行毫无悔意。这可能导致日韩关系出现重大问题，并加剧与中国的摩擦。

So pursuing more autonomy, a more independent stance at the same time as keeping America close. Again, a tricky dance. And and the final piece has to do with Japan's neighbors. Part of Takaiichi's hardline conservative worldview is a revisionist view of Japan's wartime past, a view that sees Japanese aggression in the first part of the twentieth century as a response to Western colonialism and is, in the eyes of many neighbors, unrepentant for the crimes committed by the Japanese imperial regime. So that could cause big problems in the relationship with South Korea and more friction in the relationship with China.

诺亚，我们节目中多次讨论过日本近几个月的政治不稳定。高市是能为国家带来稳定的人选吗？

Noah, you and I have spoken on the show a number of times about Japan's political instability in recent months. Is Takaiji the person to bring stability to the country?

自民党当然希望如此。他们认为在当前动荡时期，高市是稳定党和国家的最佳人选。其逻辑是通过推选高市并使政党右倾，能够赢回那些转向民粹主义新兴势力的选民，从而重建党的权力基础。然而这一策略风险很大。首先，自民党内保守派与温和派之间存在严重分歧，而温和派对高市深表怀疑。

Well, the LDP certainly hopes she is. I think they see her as as the best chance to stabilize the party and the country in this turbulent moment. The logic is that by turning to Takaiji and shifting the party to the right, they'll be able to win back voters who've been abandoning the LDP for these more populistic upstarts and and essentially reestablish the party's base of power. The strategy, however, is risky. For one thing, there are big fissures between the LDP's more conservative and more moderate wings, and Takaiichi is viewed with deep suspicion by folks on the moderate side of the LDP.

因此她上任后党内紧张关系可能加剧。此外还有自民党与日本政坛其他政党关系的问题。自高市当选后，自民党与公明党（一种世俗佛教政党）长达二十五年的联盟破裂。公明党对高市的当选及其代表的许多政策深感不满。自民党通过引入一个更右翼的新合作伙伴勉强维持了联盟，但高市领导下的联合政治格局很难保持稳定。

So those internal party tensions are likely to rise with her in office. There's also the question of the LDP's relationship to the other parties in Japan's political arena. Since Takaiichi's selection, the LDP's quarter century coalition with Kometo, a kind of lay Buddhist party, broke down. Kometo essentially bristled at Takaiichi's selection and and many of the policies she stands for. The LDP managed to reinforce its coalition by bringing in a new even sort of further right wing partner, But the coalition politics under Takayichi are are unlikely to be very stable.

最后，目前尚不清楚选民是否会同样喜爱这一选择。我认为现阶段日本民众最关心的是生活成本上涨和通胀给家庭带来的压力。而高市早苗的经济政策能否为日本民众缓解这些压力，仍是一个未知数。

And finally, it's unclear whether voters are going to love this choice as well. Ultimately, I think for the Japanese public at this stage, the main concern is rising living costs and the pressure that inflation has put on Japanese households. And it's it's unclear whether Takaiichi's economic policies will be able to deliver relief from those pressures for the Japanese public.

诺亚，非常感谢你接受采访。

Noah, thank you so much for talking to me.

谢谢你邀请我，罗茜，一如既往。

Thank you, Rosie, for having me as always.

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Craft matters in small ways, like how a coffee is brewed, and in not so small ways, like how your money is cared for. Which is why for one hundred and sixty years, UBS has elevated banking to a craft. Tailoring unique strategies that combine human expertise with the latest technologies. All happening across 24 time zones and 12 key financial hubs. With you at the heart of it all.

瑞银，以匠心铸就银行业务。

UBS, banking is our craft.

美国素以移民国家著称，但唐纳德·特朗普似乎另有打算。自其第二任期开始，政府便采取强硬路线。移民和海关执法局（ICE）已在多个城市展开突袭行动追捕非法移民。随着总统边境事务顾问斯蒂芬·米勒的推波助澜，外国学生获得签证也日益困难。

America has always been known as a nation of immigrants. Donald Trump seems to have other ideas. Since his second term began, his administration has been pursuing a hard line. ICE, that's the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency, has conducted raids to hunt down illegal immigrants in several cities. It's becoming harder for foreign students to get visas too, as Stephen Miller, the president's border czar, has tried to justify.

我们不能允许美国实行这样的政策——让本国每位公民，无论是求职、寻求住房还是在困境中申请政府福利，都必须与全球所有人竞争。

We cannot have a policy in America where every citizen of this country, whether looking for a job, whether looking for housing, whether looking for a government benefit in a time of need, has to compete with all of planet Earth.

近一个世纪以来，每年抵达美国的人数都超过离开的人数。这种情况每年如此，直到2025年可能发生改变。

For nearly a century, more people arrived in America each year than left. Each year, that is, until quite possibly 2025.

特朗普政府以惊人的力度推行零移民政策。

Trump administration's pursued zero migration with remarkable vigor.

阿奇·霍尔是我们的美国经济版块编辑。

Archie Hall is our US Economics Editor.

尽管关税、联邦政策以及特朗普政府实施的各种相当激进且严厉的经济政策备受关注，但将美国移民数量控制在接近于零的水平，可能是今年所有政策中最具戏剧性的。

For all the attention on tariffs, the feds, and all manner of pretty radical, pretty sharp economic policies Trump administration is doing, setting migration in America to something pretty close to zero, give or take, might be the most dramatic of all this year.

阿奇，在我们讨论这一政策的后果之前，特朗普为何要推行零移民政策？

Archie, before we get to the consequences of this, why is Trump pursuing a policy of zero migration?

特朗普政府会表示——这并非没有道理——他们很大程度上是凭借降低移民数量的承诺当选的。拜登执政期间移民数量大幅增加，尤其是非法移民。你可以查看边境执法部门实际逮捕或驱逐抵达边境人员的'遭遇'数据指标，这些数字在拜登任内激增。每月约20万，有时甚至接近30万，而奥巴马或特朗普时期每月远低于10万（特指特朗普时期）。因此拜登政府执政期间移民规模确实显著增长。

Well, Trump administration would say, and not without reason, that they were elected in large part on a mandate to get migration down. Migration had gone up a huge amount during the Biden administration, particularly unauthorized migration. So you can look at measures of encounters, which is when the border force actually apprehends or expels people who arrive at the border, and those surge during the Biden administration. They're running at around 200,000 a month, almost 300,000 a month at times compared to under Obama or under Trump, where they are well under a 100,000 a month, under Trump one that is. So there's a real increase in the scale of migration under the Biden administration.

2024年确实出现了公众强烈反对。从民意调查乃至总统选举结果都能看出，美国人当时倾向于减少移民。

There was genuinely public backlash in 2024. You can see us in the polling, just the presidential election results, that Americans were keen on lower migration.

那么它是如何实现这一目标的呢？

And how's it gone about achieving this?

措施包括阻止人员入境，以及将已在境内的人员驱逐出境。就前者而言，他们实际上已经封锁了南部边境，暂停了那里的庇护申请，并进行了高度军事化部署。我之前提到的边境遭遇事件数量现已降至大约一万起左右，远低于以往水平。

There's been both keeping people out and then also taking people already inside the country and pushing them out. So on the first of those, on keeping people out, they've effectively sealed the southern border. They've suspended asylum there. They've very heavily militarized it. And those measures of encounters that I was talking about beforehand have now fallen to the region of, give or take, about 10,000, which is way, way lower than they were.

他们还实质上停止了接收难民。虽然存在一些例外情况——最显著的是对西非人的特殊处理——但总体而言已不再接纳新难民。在技术移民方面，他们开始针对引进技术工人的签证类别采取措施。最近尤其针对H-1B签证——美国最主要的技术工作签证——宣布将对该签证征收10万美元费用。不过有个附加说明：这项费用可能无法合法适用于已在美国境内、从其他签证转为H-1B的人群，而这实际上构成了H-1B签证持有者的主体。

They've also effectively stopped refugee arrivals. There are some exceptions, you know, most notably for West Africans, but by and large, they've stopped taking new refugees. And then elsewhere on the higher skilled end of the distribution, they've started going after some of the visas that import skilled workers to America. So particularly, most recently, they've gone after the h one b visa, which is the main skilled worker visa in America, and said they're now going to charge a 100,000 US dollar fee on that visa. Now there's a bit of an asterisk to that, which is that that fee probably legally can't apply to people who are already in the country and moving on to the h one b from other visas, is which actually most of the h one b pool.

所以这项政策可能雷声大雨点小，但仍将影响相当数量的人群。

So this might have a bit more bark than it does bite, but it's still probably going to affect a pretty decent number of people.

你说这是特朗普政府最激进的政策之一。这会带来什么后果？

You said this is one of the most dramatic policies of the Trump administration. What are the consequences going to be?

影响会相当剧烈。我认为需要区分短期和长期后果。短期内我们已经看到一些迹象，随着政策推进可能会更加明显。这将造成巨大破坏——人们已经注意到美国的就业增长率显著放缓，这反映出美国正在步入老龄化社会。

Quite sharp. So you should separate out the consequences, I think, between the short term and the long term. And in the short term, we're already seeing a little bit of this, and and we'll likely see substantially more as it rolls on. But this is going to be tremendously disruptive. The thing people are already noticing is that the rate of job creation has slowed pretty dramatically in America, and that reflects the fact that America is an aging society.

人口结构日益老化。原本能够填补新职位空缺的很多都是移民。随着移民增速放缓，这种影响已经显现。我们也开始看到某些最依赖移民劳动力的行业出现明显混乱的早期迹象，比如建筑业和农业——这些行业中劳动力队伍的很大比例由移民构成，其中很多还是无证移民。

The population is getting older. So a lot of those people who are actually available to take new jobs were migrants. And with the slowing rates of migration, that's already been something that's visible. We're also likely seeing and seeing early inklings of pretty appreciable disruptions in some the industries that are most dependent on migrant labor. So those are things like construction, things like agriculture, where very, very large shares of the labor force are immigrants and often undocumented immigrants as well.

不过，这种干扰也可能是企业能够应对和处理的，虽然会带来不便。它将影响经济增长。如果你正试图刺激增长，并试图抵消其他损害增长的政策，如关税、攻击美联储等，这显然不是你想做的事。

That's also though a disruption of the sort that probably firms can cope with and deal with, and it will be inconvenient. It will hit economic growth. It's certainly not what you want to do if you're trying to gin up growth and trying to outweigh the other growth damaging policies you're doing, like tariffs, attacking the Fed, and so on.

好的，这些都是直接后果。那么长期影响呢？

Okay. So those are the immediate consequences. What about the longer term effects?

总的来说，大多数经济学家认为移民对生产力非常有益。它带来的劳动力补充现有劳动力，从事使其他劳动力更具生产力的工作，这在经济上极具价值。这既适用于技能分布的高端，也适用于低端。如果手术室需要有人保持清洁以便外科医生操作，这个人很可能就是移民。但尤其对生产力影响最为显著的是那些处于技能分布底层的人群。

Immigration in general, most economists think is pretty good for productivity. The thing it does of bringing in people who are complements to the existing labor force, bringing people who are doing jobs that make the rest of the labor force more productive is really economically valuable thing. And that's true at the top end the skill distribution, but also at the bottom end. If someone needs to be clean in the operating theater so the surgeon can operate, and that person disproportionately may well be an immigrant. But particularly, the single most dramatic impact on productivity is the people that hire under the skill distribution.

国际博士后进入大学实验室工作，或技术工人进入大型软件公司工作。有相当有力的证据表明，这些人对美国创新的影响确实非常惊人。有一篇论文研究了当移民研究人员过早去世时，他们所在研究团队的情况，发现研究产出会大幅下降。通过这种粗略估计方法，他们得出结论：美国约三分之一的创新（以专利衡量）要么直接归功于移民，要么同样重要地归功于这些移民对本土合作者产生的溢出效应。正是这种方式，使得美国本土人士自身的生产力也得到了提升。

International postdocs coming in to work at labs at universities or the tech workers coming in to work at big software companies. And there's some pretty compelling evidence that the impact those people have on American innovation is really, really impressive. There's one paper that looks at when immigrant researchers die prematurely, and they look at what happens to research groups they were on and see how that drops off. And by using that attempt to coarsely estimate what's going on, they guess the result that about a third of all innovation in America that's measured using patterns is either down to immigrants themselves or just as consequentially often down to the spillovers those immigrants have on their native collaborators. So the way that they make natives of The US actually more productive themselves as well.

因此，我认为这种对重大创新引擎的潜在威胁，对美国长期发展而言是个非常严重的问题。

So the idea that there's potential threat to that huge motor innovation, I think, is a really serious issue for America in the long term.

既然影响如此巨大，特朗普真的有可能扭转这一局面吗？

So if the effects are so dramatic, could or might Trump actually reverse this?

已经出现了相当多的反弹，尽管没人愿意公开与特朗普对抗，所以受影响行业往往采取某种默许或幕后操作的方式。因此已经有一些...

There's already been a fair amount of backlash, albeit no one wants to pick a fight openly with Trump, so often kind of slightly tacit or slightly behind the scenes from some of the affected industries. And so there was a bit

关于来回拉锯的讨论

of a back and forth over

今年夏天关于移民与海关执法局(ICE)是否能继续执行工作场所突袭检查，比如针对农业公司或肉类加工企业的行动。但迄今为止，这种商业压力并未产生太大影响。更可能产生效果的渠道是公众舆论。人们又开始主张美国应该接纳更多移民，认为移民总体对美国有益。因此特朗普当选时获得压制移民的授权可能在2024年成立，但当前他采取的这些经常违背美国人对执法方式预期的ICE突袭行动，是否仍符合民意授权，确实正在引发强烈反弹。

the summer whether ICE would be able to continue workplace raids and things like agricultural companies or meat packing companies. But so far, that business pressure hasn't done too much. The the channel seems more likely to have an effect is public opinion. People are back to saying that net America should have more migrants, that migration is overall a good thing for America. And so the notion that Trump was elected on a mandate to pull down migration might have been true in 2024, but whether it's a mandate for what he's doing right now often flying in the face of Americans' expectations about how law enforcement treats people in the case of the ICE raids does seem to be engendering a backlash.

到目前为止，没有真正迹象表明特朗普政府会听取这种反弹意见，但他们很可能会有所考虑。

And so far, there's no real indication that Trump administration's listening to that backlash, but they could well.

从长远来看，下一届政府能否扭转这项政策并修复已造成的损害？

Further down the line, could another administration reverse this policy and reverse the damage that's been done?

我认为未来民主党政府——甚至坦白说共和党政府——很可能会逆转这项政策的至少部分内容。但修复损害可能更为棘手。特别是考虑到那些有其他选择的人：可以去欧洲大学做博士后的研究人员，季节性来美的软件工程师，他们完全可以在祖国创业。美国作为绝佳创业之地的理念或许会保留，但美国移民开放度正遭受激进质疑的现状，长期来看也可能造成巨大伤害。

I think it's highly plausible that at least chunks of this would get reversed under a future democratic administration or, frankly, even a future republican administration. The damage might be a tougher question. I mean, particularly if you're thinking of people who do have options to go elsewhere, postdocs who could go to university in Europe, just seasonally in America, your software engineers who could start a company in their home country. The idea that America is somewhere that's extraordinarily good start of business may well remain. The notion that America's openness to migration is now something that's really aggressively under question could do a lot of damage over the long run too.

阿尔奇，非常感谢你接受采访。

Archie, thank you so much for talking to me.

谢谢。能给我来杯卡布奇诺吗？用普通牛奶，而且要小杯的，不要大杯。

Thank you. Can I get a cappuccino? Yeah. With regular milk and in the small cup rather than the big one.

和丈夫走进柏林一家LAP咖啡店时，我发现这里陈设极简：小桌子、几张凳子，基本上别无他物。

Walking into one of LAP's coffee shops in Berlin with my husband, I found a very sparsely furnished place with tiny tables, just a few stools and basically not much else.

温德林·冯·布雷迪奥是咖啡爱好者，也是《经济学人》杂志驻德国高级记者。

Wendelin von Bredeo is a coffee enthusiast and The Economist's senior Germany correspondent.

服务速度很快。要知道，我们根本没排长队。

In terms of service, it's fast. You know, we didn't queue for a long time.

看，这里有抹茶白巧克力。哇。还有巧克力碎盐味。

Look, there's a matcha white chocolate. Wow. And chocolate chip salt. There

提供的糕点种类不多。基本上你点了咖啡——我们选择堂饮——五分钟就上桌，喝完就走。LAP代表'人群中的生活'，这家咖啡馆正在德国掀起波澜。德国的咖啡文化确实进步了。战后几十年间，德国人喝的都是劣质咖啡。

is a small selection of pastries on offer. And basically, you get your coffee, we had it to drink in, we had it there quickly, five minutes, and then we left. LAP stands for Life Among People, and it is a coffee shop that is making waves in Germany. Coffee culture in Germany has really evolved. Germans used to drink filthy coffee in the decades after the war.

他们过去喝一种叫Blumchenkaffee的淡咖啡，淡到能看清杯底绘的小花。德国人至今仍习惯在家或办公室喝咖啡，不像某些南方文化中把咖啡馆当作日常生活的一部分。德国还没形成这种风气，至少尚未普及。为什么LAP如此特别？为什么人人都在谈论它？

They had this very thin brew called Blumchenkaffee, which is so thin that you can see the little flowers painted inside the cups. Germans also, and they still do today, drink most of their coffee at home or at work. So they're not like in some southern cultures where going to a cafe is really sort of part of everyday life. That's not Germany or not yet, and certainly not everywhere. Why is LAP so special and why is everyone talking about it?

最关键的是价格：浓缩咖啡仅1.5欧元，卡布奇诺2.5欧元，澳白3欧元。周边店铺价格几乎翻倍。这种巨大差价正是LAP大受欢迎的原因之一。他们的咖啡机是全自动的。

Well, most of all, the it's price. It sells an espresso for just €1.50, a cappuccino for €2.50, and a flat white will set you back €3. Everywhere else in the neighborhood, they will charge nearly double. It's a big difference, and it is one thing that makes LAP very popular. Their coffee machines are fully automated.

柜台后的人唯一做的事就是打奶泡，他们真的只提供最基础的服务。没有酱料，也没有勺子。他们试图通过专注于一件事——提供一杯好咖啡，来消除咖啡店的所有额外成本。这在20岁和30岁人群中特别受欢迎，他们喜欢这种速度。当然，他们也喜欢这个价格。

The only thing the people behind the counter do is to froth the milk, And they really just provide essentials. No sauce or no spoon. They just try to eliminate all the extra costs of a coffee shop by just focusing on this one thing, which is to serve a good cup of coffee. It's very popular in particular with 20 and 30 year olds who just like the speed of it. Of course, they also like the price.

他们喜欢LAP（人群中的生活）的理念，通过举办瑜伽课程、为当地艺术家举办展览、新书朗读会来创造人与人之间的生活。有时会有DJ，人们跳舞。所以这是一个聚会的地方。他们试图在当地建立一个社区。但也有LAP的反对者，他们担心这是涡轮资本主义在运作，会促进高档化，当然也会削弱老式咖啡馆。

And they like the fact that LAP is life among people as they try to create life among people by hosting yoga classes, staging exhibitions for local artists, doing readings of new books. There's a DJ, sometimes they dance. So it's a place to meet. They try to create a community locally. But there are detractors of LAP, people who fear that this is turbo capitalism at work, that is promoting gentrification, and of course undercutting the old coffee houses.

曾发生过LAP员工被侮辱、店面被涂鸦的事件，但总体而言它取得了巨大成功。LAP Coffee的一位联合创始人认为，那些批评如此激烈的人实际上从未去过他们的咖啡店。如果他们来了，就会克服偏见成为粉丝。我对LAP Coffee的印象是喜欢它的咖啡。我的卡布奇诺可能比我平常喝的稍微奶味重一点，但非常好喝。

There have been incidents where LAP staff have been insulted, graffiti sprayed on their premises, but generally it's been a huge success. And one of the co founders of LAP Coffee, he thinks that the people who are so critical have actually never been to a coffee shop. And if they were to come, they would overcome their prejudice and they would become fans. My impression of LAP Coffee is that I like the coffee. My cappuccino was maybe a tiny bit milkier than what I have normally, but it was very good.

我会经常去那里买杯快速外带咖啡。我甚至从没想过要久留，因为

I would always go there for a quick coffee to go. I would never be even tempted to stay for longer because it's

根本不

just not

舒服，而且附近有更舒适的咖啡店，你会愿意在那里多待一会儿。所以当你真的需要咖啡因，想要一杯好咖啡时，它很棒。但我去咖啡馆主要是为了和朋友见面消磨时间，而不会选择LAP咖啡店。

comfortable and there are much nicer coffee shops in the neighbourhood where you actually want to spend more time. So for certain moments when you just have a real need for caffeine and you want a good cup of coffee, it's great. But I actually mostly go to cafes to spend some time to meet a friend and I wouldn't do that at an LAP coffee shop.

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