“复杂性是我们的朋友”：詹姆斯·布罗克班克谈 Advent 的私募股权战略

这不过是又一个充满挑战的时刻，接在许多类似时刻之后。

This is just one more challenging time in a line of challenging times.

但复杂性反而是我们的优势，越是这种时候，我们越要主动迎上去。

But complexity is our friend, and we lean in in times like this.

说白了，最好的交易往往是在不太理想的环境下谈成的。

And the best deals tend to be made in non benign conditions, if you like.

目前私募股权投资者最大的机会在哪里？

Where are the biggest opportunities for private equity investors now?

我是艾莉森·马斯特，高盛投资银行部及全球银行与市场业务的主席，也是本集《高盛对话伟大投资者》的主持人。

I'm Alison Mast, Chairman of Investment Banking and Goldman Sachs' Global Banking and Markets Group, and your host for this episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges Great Investors.

今天，我与詹姆斯·布罗克班克坐在一起，他是全球私募股权公司Advent的联席主席，同时负责欧洲业务。

Today, I'm sitting down with James Brocklebank, who is the co chair of Advent, a global private equity investor, where he also co heads the European business.

欢迎来到《伟大投资者》节目，詹姆斯。

Well, welcome to Great Investors, James.

非常高兴你能来。

Really thrilled to have you here.

非常感谢您邀请我来。

Thank you so much for having me.

这真是莫大的荣幸。

It's a real privilege.

谢谢。

Thank you.

您在Advent已经工作三十年了吗？

So you've been at Advent now for thirty years?

差一点就三十年了。

Just under thirty years.

这太了不起了。

Which is spectacular.

谢谢。

Thank you.

我听说，是通过《金融时报》上的一则招聘启事了解到的。

And thanks to a paper job listing in the Feet, the Financial Times, I heard.

是的。

Yes.

我还听说，你至今还把那份招聘启事留在办公室里。

And I heard that you still have that listing in your office.

没错。

I do.

我把它挂在墙上。

I have it on my wall.

那是我在Advent工作满二十五周年时，他们送给我的。

It was given to me for my twenty fifth anniversary at Advent.

他们后来找到了它。

They found it.

这太棒了。

That's fantastic.

装裱起来挂在墙上。

Framed on the wall.

这对我意义重大，因为它提醒我，人生有多偶然，职业生涯又有多非线性。

And it does mean a lot to me because it's a reminder of how random life can be and how nonlinear one's career can be.

有意思的是，我刚在巴林工作那一年左右，做过一段实习，算是他们在私募股权部门的学徒，那个部门叫巴林资本投资者。

And it was interesting because when I was at Barings in the first year or so, did a internship sort of stash, if you like, an apprenticeship in their private equity business, which was called Barring Capital Investors.

办公室在伦敦的公园巷。

It was on Park Lane in London.

我特别喜欢那段经历。

I really enjoyed it.

所以我当时就觉得私募股权挺有意思的。后来我看到这则招聘广告，对安盛一无所知，但被上面写的内容吸引了。

So I had an inkling that private equity was interesting and And would then I saw this ad and I didn't know anything at all about Advent, but I liked what it said.

广告说这是一家国际公司，专注行业领域，注重运营价值创造，正在找人帮忙发掘投资机会。

And it said that this was an international firm, very sector focused, operational value creation, and they were looking for people to help them with deal sourcing.

我觉得这事儿挺有意思。

And I thought, this looks interesting.

于是我打了电话，投了简历，最后还真拿到了这份工作。

And so I rang them or I applied and I ended up getting the job.

故事就是这么开始的。

And that is how it all started.

我还没见过哪位私募行业的高管是靠报纸上的招聘启事找到工作的。

I'm not sure I've ever met a senior leader in the private equity industry who found his or her job from a paper listing in the Feet or any newspaper.

这太有意思了。

That's absolutely fascinating.

所以你1997年加入Advent的时候，私募行业规模还比较小。

So you joined Advent in 1997 at a time when private equity was still relatively small.

那时候欧洲的私募股权行业是什么样的？跟现在相比，差别大吗？

What did private equity look like in Europe at that time, and how different was the industry from what we see today?

嗯，首先，规模要小得多。

Well, for starters, it was a lot smaller.

我记得九七年年底的时候，去参加过一个行业晚宴，当时整个英国私募圈的人都能挤在一个房间里。

I remember in late nineteen ninety seven going to a dinner, an industry dinner, and you had really the whole UK industry in the room and it could fit in a single room.

地点是在伦敦的一个宴会厅，所以那时候这个行业真的非常小。

It was a ballroom in London, So it was a very small industry.

那时候正是行业转型期，正慢慢从风险投资转向私募股权。

It was at a time of transition of the industry, moving a little bit from venture capital to private equity.

所以早期，大家对私募股权作为一种所有权模式的接受度才刚刚开始。

So very early days, the acceptance of private equity as a form of ownership was just getting going.

那时候的操作没那么复杂。

It was less sophisticated.

交易规模也小得多。

There was smaller deals.

说来有趣，想想当年我们做的交易金额，现在可能就只够付一笔交易的顾问费了。

For example, it's quite funny, but to think that the deal sizes that we were dealing with there at that time really was about the same as what we might pay in fees today on transaction.

完全是两码事了。

It's a completely different

但某种程度上说，

But kind of

虽然刚起步，但挺有意思的，正好赶上了这个转型阶段。

it was early days, but good fun, and just in that transition period.

现在，Advent管理的资产规模大约是1000亿美元，在美国和欧洲都有均衡的布局，这在同行中非常独特。

So now Advent manages about $100,000,000,000 and has equal presence both in The US and in Europe, which is really unique among your peers.

那么，公司是如何组织架构来有效服务这两个地区的呢？

So how is the firm structured to serve both regions effectively?

是的。

Yeah.

我们1989年就进入了欧洲市场。

So we started in Europe in 1989.

Advent是由彼得·布鲁克于1984年在北美创立的。

Advent was founded by Peter Brook in 'eighty four here in North America.

但有意思的是，我们早在1989年就已在欧洲落地，比大多数同行早了很多。

But interestingly, we were on the ground in Europe from 'eighty nine, which is a lot earlier than most other firms.

我们陆续在伦敦、卢森堡，还有米兰、马德里、巴黎和法兰克福设立了办公室。

So we developed offices in London, later in Luxembourg, but in Milan, in Madrid, Paris, and Frankfurt.

我们一直坚持实地深耕，注重本地化存在，团队成员都深刻理解各自区域市场的细微差别。

And we've always had this strong focus on boots on the ground, local presence, people who understand the nuances of what's happening in their regions.

这一直是我们把握欧洲市场机会的关键。

And that's always been a key part of how we've addressed the European opportunity.

因为如果你是西班牙的创业者，或者在德国考虑剥离业务，信任和跟谁打交道至关重要。

Because if you're a founder in Spain or you're looking at a carve out in Germany, it's partly about trust and it's about who you deal with.

拥有在当地长期建立起来的人脉网络，真的非常关键。

And having people who've got those really long established networks in the local countries is really important.

彼得·布鲁克早就意识到，这正是阿德文特成事的方式。

And Peter Brooks saw that was how Advent came together in a sense.

从那以后，我们一直保持着这种精神。

And we've maintained that spirit ever since.

我们在欧洲市场是最早的布局者之一。

And we were early movers in the European presence.

是的。

Yeah.

在欧洲做生意确实很特别。

So Europe is a special place to do business.

你能谈谈欧洲并购与美国市场在结构上的关键差异吗？

Can you talk a little bit about the structural differences that make European buyouts fundamentally different from The US market?

当然可以。

Yes.

我觉得，对比一下就能发现，欧洲的交易中更具转型性质的更多一些。

I think, look, when we compare the two, we see a little bit more transformational deal flow in Europe.

Advent 主要投资于两类交易：转型型收购和加速型收购。

Advent invested along two main archetypes, transformational buyouts and acceleration buyouts.

在欧洲，我们看到更多属于转型类型的案例。

We see more of the transformation archetype in Europe.

欧洲有很多高质量的企业，但市场环境比较复杂，大公司经常在精简业务组合，这就为我们和其他私募基金创造了收购分拆业务的机会。

There are a lot of very high quality companies in Europe, but there is a complexity about Europe, which means that there's often big companies are trimming their portfolios and that throws up opportunities for us and other private equity firms to take on these carve out type deals.

比如我们最近从蒂森克虏伯分拆出的 Tiss 和 Krupp Elevator，还有从赛诺菲剥离出来的 Zentiva，以及最近从利洁时收购的一批消费品牌，现在叫 Vestasie。

So if you think about us recently with Tiss and Krupp Elevator coming out of Tiss and Krupp or Zentiva coming out of Sanofi, or we recently bought a portfolio of consumer brands from Reckitt Benkiser, which is now called Vestasie.

我们还收购了通用电气的燃气发动机业务 INEO。

We bought INEO, which is the gas engines business of GE.

这类转型型交易在欧洲一直源源不断。

There's a consistent flow of these transformational deals.

在欧洲比在北美更常见，而北美更多是增长型和加速型收购。

That's a little bit more the case in Europe than in North America where you see more of the growth and acceleration buyout archetype.

这算是一个关键区别吧。

So that is one key difference, I think.

另外，在融资方面，美国的资本市场非常深邃。

And then also on the financing side, you have such a deep capital market here in The United States.

几乎任何交易都能找到合适的价格。

You can sort of price any deal in a way.

无非就是价格高低的问题。

It's just a matter of the price.

欧洲市场则更依赖人际关系。

In Europe, the market is more relationship driven.

情况往往更非黑即白。

It's more binary.

所以这些交易要么能做成，要么就做不成。

So the credits get done or they don't get done.

但可能成本也低一些，因为这里的银行太多了。

But it's also perhaps a little cheaper because it's somewhat overbanked.

是的。

Yeah.

这和我们听到的情况一致，而且你们之所以这么成功，正是因为你们在当地有这些关系。

That's consistent with what we hear, but also why you are as successful as you are because you have those relationships locally.

没错。

Yeah.

我猜你现在一定经常被问到宏观环境的问题。

So I'm sure you're getting a lot of questions about the macro environment now.

那么，当前的中东冲突在你看来，对私募股权交易的经济前景有什么影响？尤其是在欧洲，那里的增长本来就已经疲软。

So how does the current Middle East conflict change the economics in your view of private equity deals, particularly in Europe, where growth is already weaker?

是的。

Yeah.

中东冲突对我们的投资组合，以及其他欧洲私募股权组合的直接影响，其实并不大。

So the direct portfolio impact of the conflict in The Middle East, I wouldn't say has been significant on our portfolio or other private equity portfolios in Europe.

不过，能源价格的波动确实推高了物价和原材料成本，这可能会进一步传导到消费者层面。

However, energy price volatility definitely feeds into higher prices, higher input costs, and that could feed through into consumer impacts.

所以我们更关注的是第二层和第三层的连锁影响。

And so it's really the second and third order impacts that we are anticipating here.

目前来看，影响还在可控范围内。

At the moment, the impact is manageable.

但说实话，这还得看后续发展。

But yeah, it just depends.

关键还是要看接下来会发生什么。

It really depends on what happens next.

就像我们之前说的，欧洲在结构上和美国很不一样，比如市场碎片化和监管差异。

So as we talked about earlier, Europe often looks structurally different than The United States in terms of fragmentation and regulation.

这种复杂性是让投资变得更困难了，还是反而为私募股权投资者，特别是Advent，创造了更多机会？

Does that complexity make investing harder or does it create more opportunities for private equity investors, in particular Advent?

没错，正是如此。

Yes and yes.

你看，欧洲由44个国家组成，其中27个是欧盟成员国。

Look, Europe is a patchwork of 44 nations, of which 27 are obviously part of the EU.

这是一个非常复杂且分散的市场。

Very complex, fragmented landscape.

每个国家的政治和监管体系都不一样。

Each country, different political regulatory setups.

还有各种不同的语言。

You've got all the different languages.

我们恰恰喜欢这种复杂性。

We love that complexity.

复杂性对创造运营价值、提升回报来说是你的优势。

Complexity is your friend when it comes to operational value creation and trying to drive alpha.

所以我们特别欣赏欧洲这种体制带来的低效。

And so we really like that Europe has that kind of inefficiency in the way it's set up.

像我提到的那些企业，欧洲有很多质量非常高的公司。

There are a lot of really high quality businesses like the ones I mentioned.

很多时候，企业不得不收缩业务范围。

And quite often you have a situation where companies have to trim their perimeter.

还有很多实力强劲的上市公司，业务遍及欧洲甚至全球，这些机会经常会出现。

You have also a lot of very strong public companies which operate across Europe and often internationally, which become available.

所以我们认为，欧洲的市场环境极具吸引力。

And so we think that the European landscape is highly attractive.

但这意味着你必须在当地有实实在在的布局。

But what it means is that you need this local presence.

这一点特别重要，因为如果只是远程观望欧洲投资，信息上会存在明显劣势。

Think it's really important because there is an information asymmetry for those who might take a more remote approach to investing in Europe.

如果你在当地有团队，真正了解当地的工会情况和商业惯例，那优势就太大了。

And I think if you've got people on the ground, teams on the ground who really understand the local labor unions and the ways of doing businesses, it really is a huge advantage.

如果再把这种本地洞察和全球行业的专业能力结合起来，那就非常强大了。

And if you combine that with global sector expertise, then I think it's a very powerful combination.

从某种意义上说，这正是Advent的定位。

And that in a sense is what Advent is set up to do.

我认为，这正是我们在欧洲市场应对这种复杂性的巨大优势。

And I think that is a huge benefit of how we can deal with that complexity in the European market.

对，我觉得如果你们去问问我们在欧洲的并购团队，他们每天都在这些国家的董事会里打交道，那这就是我们的声誉。

Yeah, I think I'll go off piece and say that if you talk to our merger team in Europe and they're in boardrooms in all of these countries, that is your reputation.

如今私募股权行业面临的一个关键挑战是，由于宏观环境的影响，退出渠道——无论是IPO还是战略出售——都出现了放缓。

So one of the defining challenges in the private equity industry today is a slowdown in exits given the macro, whether through IPOs or strategic sales.

那么，在这种环境下，Advent是如何考虑实现投资组合退出的呢？

So how is Advent thinking about monetizing your portfolio investments in this environment?

没错。

Yeah.

你说得完全对。

Well, you're absolutely right.

在过去，投资者每年都能期待获得相当于初始净资产20%的回报。

In the good old days, investors could expect 20% of starting NAV back every year.

现在，他们每年能收回初始净资产的8%到12%。

Today, they're getting between 812% of starting NAV each year.

要让这个模式真正运转起来，至少得达到15%。

Really for the model to work properly, it needs to be at least 15%.

所以，我们这个行业在退出节奏上发生了非常显著的变化。

So there has been a really significant change in the pace of realizations in our industry.

这正是目前有限合伙人最关心的核心问题。

And that is really the key question, I think, that LPs face at the moment.

对我们来说，这是个关键议题。

So for us, this is a key topic.

从某种意义上说，退出问题其实取决于你当初收购公司时的做法。

And in a sense, the exit question is really a question of what you do at the beginning when you buy a company.

因此，我们努力做到明确具体：退出时谁会收购这家公司，以及你需要对这家公司做哪些调整，才能吸引这些特定买家。

And so what we try and do is to be very clear and specific about who is going to buy the company at exit and what you need to do to the company to make it attractive to those specific buyers.

所以，这并不是一个空泛地讨论‘谁会买’的问题。

So it's not an abstract discussion about who's going to buy it.

这是一个非常具体的讨论，关于谁可能收购，以及你需要对这家公司做哪些调整，才能吸引他们。

It's a very specific discussion about who might buy it and what you need to do to the company to make it attractive to them.

我们的目标是打造具有战略性的企业，那些我们认为并购方会感兴趣的公司。

And what we're trying to do is create very strategic businesses, business that we believe will be attractive to consolidators.

我们尽量避开那种只有一条退出路径的情况，比如单纯靠上市退出。

And we try and avoid situations which might have a single threaded exit, so just pure IPO.

我们更希望拥有多种退出选择，能卖给不同的买家。

We'd much rather have the optionality of being able to sell to multiple different parties.

这就是我们应对这一挑战的方式。

So that is how we are trying to address this challenge.

但很明显，整个行业目前都在为此头疼，我们每个人都需要在这方面提升。

But it is very clearly something that the industry is wrestling with at the moment and something that we all need to get better at.

你提到，在当前环境下，你们在投资之初就会更认真地考虑退出策略。

So you mentioned that in the current environment, you think harder about monetizations on the way in.

对。

Yeah.

那最终会是谁来收购它们呢？

And who's going to ultimately buy them.

我想知道，在你们的投资委员会里，分析方式有没有什么变化？

I'm curious, in your investment committees, has any of the analysis changed?

现在宏观环境变了，尤其是软件行业这么多变动，你们的投资委员会报告里是不是新增了什么新的考量点？

Is there a new case that goes into investment committee memos now, given the macro environment with software and everything going on?

是的，现在大家对退出可能性的关注比以往更加强烈了。

Yeah, there is even more focus, I think, on the exitability question.

另一个我们重点关注的方向是人工智能，我相信我们稍后会谈到。

The other key topics we focus on is AI, which I'm sure we'll

但也会谈到。

But come to in a

这也是我们目前的另一个核心关注点。

that's the other key focus that we have.

不过毫无疑问，我们也在认真考虑退出时机，因为投资者现在非常看重内部收益率，以及资金回笼的速度。

But no, without question, we're thinking about also the timing of exit because the other thing that investors are very focused on is obviously IRR and how quickly you can get money back.

因为这些转型往往需要很长时间，这中间多少得权衡一下。

Because some of these transformations take a long time, and that's the trade off a little bit.

而且做这些事需要大量的人力和资源。

And you need a lot of people and a lot of resource to undertake them.

所以我们投资团队有三百人，就是出于这个考虑。

And that's something that we have a 300 people on the deal team and for that reason.

没错。

Right.

当然，今天谈投资，不可能不聊人工智能，它正在迅速改变各个行业。

So of course, we cannot have a conversation about investing today without talking about artificial intelligence, which is transforming industries at a very rapid pace.

你是怎么看待人工智能的？既作为投资主题，也作为提升投资组合公司效率的工具？

How are you thinking about AI both as an investment theme and as a tool to improve your portfolio companies?

首先，得从Advent内部说起，因为你自己得先身体力行。

Well, look, starting with AI within Advent, because I think you have to walk the walk internally.

我们早在人工智能还没火起来的时候，就早早聘了首席数据科学官和首席数字官。

And I think we were very early on in hiring a chief data science officer and a chief digital officer before AI was a thing.

所以我们早就开始考虑这个问题了。

And so we've been thinking about this for some time.

我们在AI还没火的时候，就早早训练了自己的大语言模型，用的是阿德文特的数据。

We were very early having our own large language model trained on Advent data.

阿德文特？哦，那其实就是GPT。

Advent Oh, that's GPT.

但那只是第一代工具。

But that was the first generation tool.

现在我们有了一个智能引擎，不依赖任何特定的大模型，能整合所有主流模型。

Now we have a sort of intelligence engine, which is agnostic to the LLMs and uses all of them.

AI对所有行业的影响都会非常深远。

The implication of AI in all businesses is going to be truly profound.

这一点我们看得清清楚楚。

We see that.

所以我们必须确保内部有合适的工具，真正用上它。

And so we want to make sure that we have the tools internally to really be able to take advantage of it.

所以，这从根本上说也是一个数据问题。

So it's a data question fundamentally as well.

你得把数据好好整理好，才能真正享受到人工智能的好处。

You have to organize your data properly in order to be able to have the benefit of AI.

这还是个文化问题，因为你得打破部门壁垒和旧有的做事方式，让大家接受新的工作模式。

It's also a cultural question because you need to break down silos and old ways of doing things and get the people on board with doing things in a different way.

某种程度上，我们正在走向一个反过来为AI服务的环境，而不是AI为我们服务。

And in a sense, we're almost moving to a landscape where we're working for the AI rather than the AI working for us in a sense.

这是在Advent这边的情况。

So that's on the Advent side.

在投资组合这边，我们有专门的团队帮助被投公司推进AI转型。

On the portfolio side, we have dedicated people who help our portfolio companies with AI transformation.

这真的是关于整体的AI转型，因为很多时候人们只是随便加几个小的AI项目。

Genuinely, it is about AI transformation because too often you have little AI projects bolted on.

真正需要的是：数据结构要清晰，文化与人的因素要解决好，然后AI才能真正发挥颠覆性的作用。

And really what you need is the data to be organized properly, the cultural and human factors dealt with, and then AI then more transformative on top.

所以这对我们来说是个重点。

And so that's a big focus for us.

你提到过Advent是怎么用AI的。

You talked about how Advent is using AI.

这对你们的投资委员会流程有什么影响？

How has it impacted your investment committee processes?

我们还做了一件很有趣的事，就是开发了一个叫‘IC机器人’的东西。

Well, the other thing that we've done, which is fascinating, we've created something called the IC Robot.

这个AI系统训练了我们过去十三年所有投资委员会的材料。

And this is an AI that has been trained on all of our investment committee papers over the last thirteen years.

它已经吸收了所有我们呈递给委员会的项目数据。

So it's ingested everything, all the deals that we've shown the committee.

有意思的是，它不仅知道我们做过的项目后来怎么样了，也知道那些我们没选的项目后来发生了什么。

And interestingly, it has the perspective on what happened to the deals that we did, but also the deals that we didn't do.

现在它的作用是，当我们向委员会提出新项目时，它会分析这个项目里的各项假设。

And then what it's doing now is that when we bring any new deal to the committee, it looks at it and it can look at the assumptions that are in that particular case.

它能直接指出：哦，这里有个利润率假设。

And it can basically say, Oh, I see a margin assumption here.

这种公司以前从来没实现过这样的利润率。

That has not been achieved before in this particular type of company before.

这只是一个提示而已。

And so it's just a prompt.

它不是投票成员，也没别的权力，但在激发对特定议题的讨论方面非常有效。

It's not a voting member or anything like that, but it's extremely powerful in terms of prompting discussion on particular topics.

我想问问你们的初级员工。

I'm curious with your junior professionals.

在招聘初级员工时，他们对AI的使用能力有多重要？

As you onboard junior professionals, how important is their knowledge of use of AI in hiring them?

如果他们用你们的大语言模型做分析，你们怎么教他们理解业务？

And how do you teach people the business if they're using your large language model to do their analysis?

好问题。

Yeah, great question.

我得说两点。

So two things I'd say.

首先，很多创新都来自初级员工。

First of all, a lot of the innovation comes from the junior people.

他们对这方面的了解已经非常深入了。

They are coming with very sophisticated knowledge of this already.

你说得对，这确实是个学徒制的行业。

It is an apprenticeship business, you're quite right.

所以他们必须掌握基础知识。

And therefore, they need to understand the basics.

不能把模型创建全扔给AI去做。

They can't just outsource all of the model creation.

在把模型外包之前，你得先懂它是怎么运作的，毕竟现在靠AI技能和代理就能轻松生成模型了。

You need to understand how the models work before you just outsource them because clearly now you can just have them made through skills and through agents in the AI.

但到目前为止，我们还没遇到这方面的问题。

But so far, we've not had a problem with that.

我们招聘时， definitely 会优先找那些对AI更熟悉的人。

We are definitely looking for people who are more native with AI when we hire them.

我们不希望搞成一个交易团队加一个独立的数据科学团队，而是希望交易团队本身就有数据分析的经验，能自然地运用这些技能，而不是把它们分开。

So rather than have a deal team and then a team of data scientists, we want the deal team to be already experienced in data analytics so that they're natural with it rather than a separate group.

我觉得这正是我们长期以来坚持的理念。

And that I think is the vision that we've held for some time.

过去几年，这一点一直影响着我们的招聘策略。

And that's been a factor in our recruitment over the last few years.

那我们来聊聊Advent自身的发展吧。

So let's talk about Advent's own evolution.

私募股权公司正面临越来越大的压力，必须突破传统的杠杆收购模式，才能更好地与一站式服务公司竞争。

Private equity firms are under increasing pressure to branch out beyond LBOs to better compete with so called one stop shops.

但Advent依然专注于纯粹的私募股权投资。

But Advent remains focused on pure private equity.

能跟我们说说你们的战略吗？你们在哪些地方寻找独特的投资机会？

So tell us about the strategy and where do you look for unique opportunities?

是的

Yeah.

所以我们明确决定，始终专注于私募股权。

So we have made the definitive choice to stay absolutely focused on private equity.

这样，我们所有的时间、精力和资源都能投入到让自行车跑得更快的事情上。

And that way, all of our time, attention, and effort can go into what makes the bicycle go faster.

我们非常欣赏这种目标明确、纯粹专注的定位。

And we love that purity and clarity of purpose.

我们也认为，这对有限合伙人群体来说正变得越来越有吸引力，因为很多公司规模膨胀得太厉害，业务也太分散，私募股权反而成了他们业务中很小的一部分。

And we also think it's actually becoming increasingly attractive to the LP community because so many firms have grown so much and have diversified so much that the private equity is actually quite a small part of what they do.

这商业模式本身并没有什么问题。

And now there's nothing wrong with that business model.

只是它走的是另一条路。

It's just a different thing.

他们解决的是不同的问题。

They are solving for something else.

所以我们想成为那些热爱交易的人的最佳选择。

And so we want to be the best place for people who love deals.

我们不想要单纯的金融人士，而是想找真正热爱做交易、特别享受交易氛围的人。

So rather than financiers, we want people who love doing deals and really, really love the kind of deal environment.

这就是我们希望Advent成为这些人的理想归宿。

And that's we want Advent to be the best possible home for those people.

你们还以专注于支付和金融服务而闻名，事实上，你们在2010年代初主导了从苏格兰皇家银行收购支付处理公司Worldpay的交易，我想我们当时和你们合作过。

So you're known also for specializing in payments and financial services, and in fact, led the acquisition of the payment processing company, Worldpay, from the Royal Bank of Scotland in the early two thousand tens, which I think we worked with you on.

是的。

Yeah.

没错，你们确实参与了。

You did.

从这笔交易中，你们对行业垂直领域学到了什么？它如何改变了你们对运营复杂性的看法？

What did you learn about sector verticals from that deal and how did it change the way you think about operational complexity?

是的。

Yeah.

支付这个细分领域只是我们关注的众多细分领域之一。

So the payments subsector is just one of many subsectors that we focus on.

在阿德文特，我们有五大主要行业，但我们真正深耕的是这些非常具体的子领域，比如支付、化工、制药、航空航天与国防等等。

Within Advent, we have our five main sectors, but we really focus on these very deep sub verticals of which payments is one, chemicals is another, pharmaceuticals, aerospace and defense being others.

单在支付领域，自2008年以来，我们已经投资了116亿美元，覆盖了19家不同的支付公司，如果算上这些公司自己做的并购，总额还要高得多。

And in payments specifically, we've invested about $11,600,000,000 since 2008 in 19 different payment companies, much more if you include the M and A that those payment companies have done.

所以我们在这方面的经验非常深厚。

So really deep experience.

我们学到的是，当你对某个子领域足够深入，你就会变得近乎具有战略价值。

And what we learn is that by being so deep in the sub vertical, you become almost quasi strategic.

你真正清楚什么是真正优秀的做法。

You really understand what good looks like.

比如在支付公司，当你做完第三个客户流失管理项目，或者第三个定价项目，你基本上就驾轻就熟了，对吧？

So for example, in a payment company, by the time you've done your third churn management project or your third pricing project, you're pretty good at it, right?

所以你会不断积累和复用这些经验。

And so you keep repeating that knowledge.

你还能复用人才，把最优秀的人派到不同的地方去。

You also can recycle people, so you can recycle some of your best talent.

所以说，这就是你如何推动运营价值创造和转型的关键。

And so this all speaks to how you can drive operational value creation and transformation.

这确实是Advent模式的核心，也就是持续改进，以及在全球范围内运用这些深厚的行业知识。

And this is really core, core to the Advent model, which is continuous improvement and this deep sector knowledge then across the globe.

比如，先把在美国早期支付公司学到的经验，带到欧洲，然后再推广到全球各地。

So taking learnings initially, the early payment companies done in The United States, moving into Europe, and then more broadly across the world.

这是一个非常强大的模式，我们一直在反复强调这一点。

It's incredibly powerful model and it's something that we keep repeating over time.

所以近年来您重新确认了对国防领域的投入。

So you've reaffirmed your involvement in the defense sector in recent years.

能跟我们分享一下您对这个领域的思考吗？

Tell us about how you're thinking about that So

我们在国防领域算是较早入局的。

we were an early mover in the defense space.

我们在这件事还没流行起来之前就早就看到了。

I think we saw it before it became a fashionable thing.

我们看中的是长期稳定的合同现金流、非常稳健的业务，还有顶尖的技术。

And we were attracted by long term contracted cash flows, very defensive business, great technology.

但同样，很多这类国防资产都属于经营困难或长期投入不足的大型集团。

But equally, many of these defense assets were part of struggling or underinvested conglomerates.

我们早期做的一笔交易就是英国的科巴姆公司。

So one of the early deals that we did was Cobham in The UK.

那是一家上市公司，曾经多次发布盈利预警，但里面其实藏着几个非常出色的独立业务。

And it was a public company that had multiple profit warnings, but there were within it really strong individual businesses.

没人愿意整体收购，但我们发现，每个细分业务单独拿出来，都会吸引很强的战略买家。

There was no strategic buyer for the whole thing, but we identified that there'd be really strong strategic interest in the individual parts.

所以我们通过私募股权收购了这家公司，提供了所需资金，为每个业务单元配备了专门的管理团队，把整个公司拆解开来，让各个子业务真正释放出价值。

So we acquired that company through a P2P, which is a public to private, provided the investment it needed, put specific boards in place for each of the different companies with the relevant people, and liberated that company in a sense and all the different underlying entities.

从那以后，我们的重心逐渐转向了下一代国防科技企业。

Since then, we've pivoted a little bit more to next generation defense businesses.

我们最近投资了两家公司，一家叫Shield AI，另一家叫Sironic，支持它们在下一代国防技术上的创新，这一点我们也非常看好。

We've recently invested in a business called Shield AI and a business called Sironic, where we are supporting innovation into next generation defense technology, which is we're very excited about as well.

早在2024年初，阿德文特就宣布了未来五年将在印度投资50亿到100亿美元的计划。

So in early twenty twenty four, Advent announced its plans to invest 5,000,000,000 to $10,000,000,000 in India over five years.

这家公司最近还在东京和悉尼设立了办事处。

The firm also recently opened offices in Tokyo and in Sydney.

那是什么促使你们把重点放在亚太地区？十年前不存在、如今却变得重要的机会有哪些，让你们现在如此关注？

So what is driving the focus on the Asia Pacific region and what opportunities are present that didn't exist a decade ago that have made you focus today?

总的来说，未来一段时间里，亚太地区将贡献全球一半的经济增长。

So Asia Pacific broadly is going to account for 50% of global GDP growth over the next period.

这非常重要。

So it's super important.

过去二十五年，亚太地区在全球贸易中的占比也从大约7%上升到了35%。

Equally, its share of global trade has gone up from about 7% to 35% in the last twenty five years.

所以你必须得在那儿。

So you want to be there.

这就是我们的看法。

That's our view.

你想参与到这片增长中来，把Advent的模式带到亚洲。

You want to be part of that growth, taking the Advent model to Asia.

所以我们先从印度做起，之后又在中国开了办公室。

So we started in India, then we opened an office in China.

正如你所说，我们最近也在澳大利亚和日本设立了办公室。

And as you say, we recently opened an office in Australia and also in Japan.

你看到的是私募股权作为所有权模式正越来越被接受。

And what you're seeing is a growing acceptance of private equity as an ownership model.

资本市场的成熟度也在不断提升。

You're seeing a growing maturity in the capital markets.

控制型收购越来越被认可，而这正是我们的主业。

You're seeing a greater acceptances of control buyouts, which is what we do.

这也是我们对东南亚关注较少的原因，因为那里的控制型收购机会相对有限。

It's also why we're less focused on Southeast Asia because there's less control buyouts in that region.

所以我们更专注于收购市场。

So we focus more on the buyout markets.

亚洲已经发展起来，现在成了一个非常令人兴奋的机会。

So Asia has developed and is now becoming really quite exciting opportunity.

印度的故事围绕着金融普及、中产阶级崛起和强劲的增长。

India is a story around financial penetration, emerging middle class, strong growth.

在中国，我们聚焦于本土龙头企业，这些企业业务扎实，我们相信它们未来会有很高的战略价值，尽管目前退出难度较大。

China, have in our focuses on domestic champions, a very strong strategic businesses, which we think have strong strategic bids in due course, even if exit is more challenging at the moment.

日本是个很有意思的机会，因为监管和公司治理的变革，正迫使那些复杂的大上市公司进行简化。

Japan is a fascinating opportunity because of regulatory and governance changes, which is requiring these complicated and complex public companies to simplify.

因此，我们在日本看到了大量分拆和私有化交易的巨大潜力。

So we see a huge opportunity for carve outs and P2Ps in Japan.

我们认为，我们深厚的行业专长和运营价值创造模式在这里会非常有效。

And we think our brand of steep sector level knowledge and this operational value creation will really work well.

不过，我们也意识到这个市场竞争非常激烈，目前也特别热门。

That said, we recognize it's a very competitive market and it's very popular at the moment.

澳大利亚是一个成熟的市场，机构支持非常强劲，我们认为这里非常适合长期资本创造价值。

And then Australia is a mature market with very strong institutional support where we see great opportunity for patient capital to drive value creation.

所以在这四个市场中，我们都看到了非常令人兴奋的机会。

So in all four markets, we think there is very exciting opportunities.

但总体来看，亚太地区显然是我们未来的核心重点。

But overall, Asia Pacific is clearly a key focus for us going forward.

我听说Advent的企业文化跟高盛很相似。

So I've heard that the culture at Advent is similar to Goldman Sachs' culture.

你觉得我们两家公司有哪些共同的价值观？

And what values do you think that our two firms share?

是的。

Yeah.

好问题。

Great question.

我认为是追求卓越、诚信、协作，还有持续改进的文化。

I think excellence, integrity, collaboration, and I would say, culture of continuous improvement.

这四点对我来说特别突出。

Those four things really stand out for me.

我觉得文化真的特别重要。

I think culture is so important.

过去几年我学到的一件有趣的事是，文化主要由领导力驱动，而业绩其实是文化表现的滞后指标。

One of the fascinating things that I've learned over the last few years is that culture is really driven by leadership and performance is a lagging indicator of culture.

无论哪种类型的优秀企业，往往都有强大而健康的文化。

And the great high performing firms of whatever kind tend to have really strong and good cultures.

随着业务扩张，这些年你们也增加了不少投资专业人士，你们是怎么保持这种文化的？

And as you scale the business and as you've added investment professionals over the years, how do you maintain that culture?

我们经常聚在一起。

Well, we get together a lot.

所以我们花了很多时间和精力把大家聚到一起，既分享成功经验，也讨论那些没做好的事情。

So we spend a lot of time and money bringing people together, talking about things that went well, but things that also didn't go well.

我们会让领导者站出来，谈谈那些失败的交易。

So we have leaders stand up and talk about the deals that haven't worked.

顺便说一句，交易并不总是能成功。

And by the way, deals don't always work.

所以我们努力分享成功的经验，也坦诚交流失败的教训。

And so we try and share the good things and the bad things.

我们鼓励年轻员工多去指导新来的同事。

We try and encourage the younger team members to really mentor the people coming up.

你们经历过互联网泡沫、全球金融危机、欧元区危机，现在又面对一个由地缘碎片化塑造的世界。

So you've invested through the dot com bubble, the global financial crisis, the eurozone crisis, and now a world shaped by geopolitical fragmentation.

所以相比过去，当下的环境——利率更高、能源动荡、地缘风险加剧——你觉得有多难应对？

So when you compare today's environment, higher rates, energy shocks, geopolitical risks, how challenging does this moment feel to you relative to past cycles?

首先我想说，正如你提到的，这只是众多挑战时期中的又一个而已。

Well, first I'd say, this is, as you say, this is just one more challenging time in a line of challenging times.

但复杂性恰恰是我们的优势，越是这种时候，我们越要主动投入。

But complexity is our friend and we lean in in times like this.

最好的交易，往往是在不太理想的环境下达成的。

And the best deals tend to be made in non benign conditions, if you like.

正是在这样的时候，大公司重新评估自己的业务组合，一些有意思的剥离交易就出现了。

And so it's at times like this that you see some of the interesting carve outs happening as the bigger companies have to reassess their portfolios.

所以我们期待能继续看到不错的交易机会，并通过聚焦特定行业，持续发掘这些有潜力的项目。

So we are hopeful that we will continue to see interesting deal flow and we will continue through our sector focus to try and find these interesting opportunities.

我记得新冠期间你们是不是做了TK电梯那笔交易？

I do remember in COVID you being was it TK Elevator done?

TK。

TK.

对。

Yeah.

TK电梯那笔交易，我确实记得，你们是第一个在疫情初期就出手做大项目的。

TK Elevator done during that I do remember that you were the first out of the box doing something large.

这是个特别好的案例，因为我们在2020年3月，疫情刚爆发的时候，就承做了这笔交易。

That's a great case study because we indeed underwrote that deal in March 2020, right at the beginning of COVID.

那时，新冠疫情正在全球范围内封锁一切。

So COVID was locking down the world.

当时人人都害怕，纷纷撤退。

Everyone was terrified and retrenching.

但我们通过中国团队发现，武汉作为全球首个全面封城的城市，电梯依然在正常维护。

But what we saw through, partly through our China team, was that Wuhan, which was the first city in the world to go into full lockdown, the elevators were still being serviced.

所以我们看到，即使在全球范围内出现全面封锁的情况下，这个模式和业务依然稳健，因为我们亲眼见证了中国的情况。

So we saw even in a full lockdown scenario, which would then spread across the world, even if that happened, we didn't know what was gonna happen at We the felt really good about that model and that business because of what we had seen in China.

我记得当时各方讨论得很激烈，因为我们正在投入资金，而你们在做是否推进的决定。

Now I remember all the dialogue around it because we were committing capital and you were making the decision to go no go.

这和你们之前谈到的如何在其他危机中管理与投资的思路完全一致。

And that's very consistent with what you have said about managing and investing through other crises.

关于这个行业和当前的环境，我们已经聊了很多。

So we've covered a lot of ground on the industry and the current environment.

但我很想退一步，聊聊你的个人经历，是什么塑造了你的视角。

But I'd love to take a step back and talk a little bit about your own journey and what's shaped your perspective.

更个人一点地说，我们之前聊过，你有三个儿子，听说有两个正在考虑进入金融行业。

On a more personal note, we talked earlier, you have three sons, and I understand two are considering careers in finance.

所以，面对如今行业发生的巨大变化，你会给他们什么建议呢？

So what advice do you give them as they think about entering the industry today, especially given how much has changed?

是的。

Yeah.

我鼓励他们保持开放的心态。

I encourage them to to be open minded.

金融行业涵盖面很广，机会非常多。

Finance is a broad church, and so there's a lot of opportunities.

他们可以走的路有很多。

There's many different things that they could do.

所以我不会对他们管得太死。

So I try not to be too prescriptive with them about it.

在人工智能的时代，保持人性。

Be human in a world of AI.

我觉得人性非常重要。

I think humanity is very important.

对。

Yeah.

我收到很多来自客户和朋友的提问，他们现在正养育着十五到二十五岁之间的孩子，问我如果是我，会告诉自己的孩子该把重心放在哪些方面？

I get a lot of questions from clients, friends who are raising children now in the sort of fifteen to twenty five year old age range about what would you tell your children to focus on?

因为情商在我们工作中的重要性会变得越来越突出。

Because the EQ part of our jobs is gonna become so much more important

尤其是

over

时间。

time.

你可以学会它，但很难教，而智商部分会来自你的大语言模型。

And you can learn it, but it is harder to teach, whereas the IQ is gonna come from your LLM.

这也就是我关于人性的一点看法。

This is sort of my point about humanity.

无论你做什么，建立人际关系的能力都非常重要，要把人的因素放在首位。

It's very important to have the relationship building skills in whatever you do and to keep the human factors at the forefront.