从资产到阿尔法：大卫·科斯廷谈美国股市

明年股市的预测涨幅超过百分之二十。

20 plus percent forecast for stocks next year.

这真是很有胆识。

That's that's courageous.

很多人喜欢提出八到十二这样的数字，那就是他们给出的预测。

A lot of people they like to come out with, you know, eight to 12 and, you know, that's what they come out with.

是什么让你如此有信心？

What makes you so confident?

我们有信心有三个原因。

There are three reasons that we're confident.

第一个是经济。

The first is economy.

这是大卫·科斯汀在2010年首次登上CNBC电视节目时的声音。

That's the voice of David Costin back when he made his first TV appearance in 2010 on CNBC.

科斯汀今年将退休，他此前担任我们美国股票策略首席分析师，于1994年加入高盛。

Costin, who's retiring as our chief US equity strategist this year, joined Goldman Sachs in 1994.

今天，我们将听取他对美国股票市场的看法，同时也有机会聆听他职业生涯中的故事，以及他对过去几十年资本市场变化的独特见解。

Today, we'll get his take on US equity markets, and we'll also get the chance to hear some stories from his career as well as his uniquely informed views on how capital markets have changed over the past few decades.

大卫，欢迎再次做客高盛交流会。

David, welcome back to Goldman Sachs Exchanges.

艾莉森，很高兴来到这里。

Allison, it's great to be here.

我能不能先说一句，我感到很遗憾，这将是我最后一次在《交流会》上对你进行采访，我们的听众和观众也将再也听不到这次对话了？

Can I first just say that I am sad that this will be the last time I am interviewing you on exchanges for our listeners and viewers?

大卫和我已共事近三十年。

David and I have worked together for nearly thirty years.

你在这里已经三十一年了。

You've been here for thirty one.

我在这里已经二十八年了。

I have been here for twenty eight.

在我任职的这段时间里，有一半的时间我们相距只有二十英尺。

For half of that time that I have been here, we have sat 20 feet away from each other.

所以我会非常想念你。

So I will really miss you dearly.

我会想念你，还有公司里的许多其他同事。

I am gonna miss you along with many other colleagues here at the firm.

但我在2026年将担任顾问董事，因此我会与一些客户和其他内部人员保持互动。

But I'm going to be an advisory director in calendar year 2026, so I'll be interacting with some of the clients and other internal people.

所以我们还会有机会见面。

So we'll have an opportunity to see each other.

在过去三十年里，我有着非常美好的经历。

But I've had a great experience for the last three decades.

我想借此机会回顾你漫长的职业生涯，但在进入这些回顾之前，让我最后一次向你询问一下市场情况。

I want to take the opportunity to reflect on your very long career, but before we get into those reflections, let me take the opportunity to ask you for the last time about the markets.

今年美国股市创下了新高，但过去几周市场波动较大。

US equity markets have made new highs this year, but the markets have been pretty volatile over the past few weeks.

那么，你如何评价当前的市场情绪？

So how would you characterize market sentiment right now?

实际上，今年年初市场情绪相当乐观。

Actually, at the start of the year, the sentiment was pretty optimistic.

而到了4月2日的解放日，确实引发了巨大动荡，波动性急剧上升。

And then, of course, Liberation Day on the April 2 really created a lot of havoc and volatility increased dramatically.

但过去几个月里，这种情况已经缓和了。

But that has receded in the last couple of months.

事实上，市场从四月的低点开始呈现出相当平稳、持续的上涨，直到最近政府数据停止发布，波动性才略有上升。

And in fact, the market had a pretty monotonic increase, pretty steady increase from the low in April, and it was only recent when the government data stopped being released that it had a modest increase in volatility.

我认为，截至2025年，市场波动性实际上与过去五年保持一致。

I think the story of calendar twenty twenty five thus far has been actually volatility has been right in line with the last five years.

VIX指数大约在19左右，目前实际交易水平略低于这一数值。

The VIX measures around 19, and it's actually trading a little bit below that right now.

我认为，这为2026年市场的前景预示了相当良好的态势。

And I think that bodes pretty well looking into calendar twenty twenty six in terms of the setup for the market.

在您最近与客户的交谈中，投资者是感到焦虑，还是仅仅看到市场动能，并认为这种趋势将在2026年持续？

And so in these last client conversations that you're having, are investors nervous or they're just seeing momentum in the market and think it's expected to continue in 2026?

焦虑源于不确定性，而不确定性是一种风险，市场中的风险通过波动率来衡量，也就是VIX。

Nervousness comes from uncertainty, and uncertainty is a form of risk, and risk in the markets is measured by volatility, which is the VIX.

因此，投资者曾有许多担忧，但我觉得这些担忧在很大程度上已经消散了。

And so the risk has been a lot of concerns on the part of investors, but I think that has been largely dissipated.

我们经历了非常强劲的第三季度财报季，我认为这对市场起到了重要的稳定作用。

We had a very strong third quarter earnings season, which I think was an important stabilizing factor in the market, in my opinion.

我们取得了相当不错的结果，不仅来自‘七巨头’，而是市场上广泛的企业营收增长，同比增长近9%，我认为这目前是市场一个非常重要的稳定因素。

We had pretty good results, not just from the Magnificent Seven, but really a broad array of companies in the market increasing, earnings up almost 9% year over year, and I think that's a pretty important stabilizing factor in the market right now.

对。

Right.

显然，人们一直非常关注人工智能。

There's obviously been a lot of focus on AI.

我们看到了英伟达不错的财报。

We got some good earnings out of NVIDIA.

但接下来几天市场仍出现波动，因为人们仍对是否处于投机泡沫中存在许多疑问。

The market still was volatile in the following days because there's still a lot of questions about whether we're in a speculative bubble.

我们在这个播客和研究团队中已经多次讨论过这个问题。

We've talked a lot about that on this podcast and within the research group.

但你一直密切关注，你的看法是什么？

But you've been watching it very closely, so what are your thoughts?

艾莉森，全球投资者最常问的问题是：我们是否处于AI泡沫中？

Allison, the most frequently asked question from investors all over the world has been, are we in AI bubble?

我认为，这个问题需要从两个方面来回答。

And that is, I think, important to answer that in two ways.

首先，这不是一个单一的市场。

The first is it's not a single market.

有一个价格市场，还有一个资本可得性市场。

There's a market for price and there's a market for capital availability.

这是两个不同的市场。

Those are two markets.

它们在公开市场和私人市场中都存在。

They exist both in the public and the private space.

如果你接受这个分析并深入思考，它实际上有两个含义。

So if you take that analysis and think about it, it really has two implications.

第一，我们在公共市场上并没有处于AI泡沫之中。

One, we are not in an AI bubble in the public markets.

我认为在私人市场中，资本的可获得性和价格可能是不可持续的，这一点可以被视为泡沫的同义词。

And I believe in the private markets, the availability of capital and the price is probably unsustainable, which one could take as a synonym for a bubble.

我认为看待这个问题的方式如下。

And I think the way to think about it is as follows.

在公共市场上，Nvidia——这家人们最常与AI联系在一起的公司——其股价在过去三年中上涨了12倍，盈利也增长了12倍。

In the public market, Nvidia, which is the company that people most associate with AI, the share price has increased by 12 fold in the last three years, and earnings have increased by 12 fold as well.

因此，价格和盈利基本上是同步增长的。

So pretty much the price and the earnings have matched each other.

因此，这是一个例证，说明在公共市场上，AI的价格并未处于泡沫之中。

So that'd be one exhibit, one example of where the price in the public markets, if you will, AI, is not in a bubble.

它的价格增长与盈利增长基本保持一致。

It sort of matched the earnings growth and the price.

想想市场上最大公司的估值，其中许多当然与人工智能相关。

And think about the valuation of the largest companies in the market, many of those associated, of course, with AI.

它们的市盈率大约为30倍。

They trade around 30 times earnings.

2021年疫情刚结束时，市场上最大的十家公司市盈率为40倍。

Largest 10 companies in the market traded 40 times earnings in twenty twenty one, just after coming out of COVID.

而在1999年，最大的十只股票市盈率达到50倍。

And in 1999, the 10 largest stocks traded at 50 times earnings.

所以是30倍、40倍和50倍。

So thirty, forty, and 50.

因此，你可以说，从绝对值来看，我们未必处于价格泡沫中，尽管相对于历史水平仍属高位，但远不及过去其他时期的水平。

So you would say that we're not necessarily in a price bubble, if you will, on absolute basis, still high relative to history, but not nearly what it has been in other periods of time.

你也可以思考一下公开市场中的资本可得性。

And you can think about the capital availability in the public markets.

今年美国大约有55家公司在公开市场上市，55笔融资交易的金额均超过2500万美元。

We've had about 55 IPOs in The United States this year, 55 deals greater than $25,000,000 in capital raising.

2021年你有大约280笔交易。

You had two eighty deals or so in 2021.

那是IPO市场资本募集非常旺盛的时期。

That was a very robust raising of capital in the IPO market.

1999年你几乎有400笔交易。

And you had nearly 400 deals in 1999.

这是一个公共市场存在资本可用性的例子，但并不一定活跃。

This is an example where there is capital availability in the public markets, but not necessarily buoyant.

它存在，但没那么显著。

It's there, but not so dramatic.

我认为人工智能在私募市场中的情况要完全不同，我认为这是来自乔治·索罗斯及其著作《金融炼金术》的重要洞见。

I think there's a much different story in the private market for AI, and I think that's important insight that really came from George Soros and his book, The Alchemy of Finance.

《金融炼金术》出版于1987年，乔治·索罗斯提出了他的反身性理论，这一理论揭示了资本市场运作的一个重要洞察。

The Alchemy of Finance was published in 1987, and George Soros laid out his theory of reflexivity, which was linked to an important insight into how the capital markets trade.

他第一章讲股票市场的反身性，第二章讲货币市场的反身性，第三章讲债券市场的反身性。

He had chapter one on reflexivity in the equity market, chapter two, reflexivity in the currency market, chapter three, reflexivity in the bond market.

那么，这种反身性到底是什么意思？

Now, what is that reflexivity about?

大多数人认为，资产的估值是其未来现金流的折现值。

Most people think the valuation of an asset is the discounted future value of the cash flows.

乔治·索罗斯在《金融炼金术》中提出，这种看法并不正确。

George Soros argued in the Alchemy of Finance that is not the right way to think about it.

实际上，今天的股价变动本身就是股票估值的组成部分。

That actually the valuation of the shares today, the price change is an integral part of the valuation of the shares.

这是一种不同的观点。

That is a differentiated view.

它是在思考动量。

It's thinking about momentum.

对于私募市场中的AI领域而言，相关性在于，当这些公司筹集资本时，其增长率会上升。

The relevance for private market for AI is that as these firms are raising capital, the growth rate increases.

随着增长率上升，企业的估值也随之提高，这是一个递归过程，乔治·索罗斯称之为反身性。

As the growth rate increases, the valuation of the enterprise increases, and that is a recursive process, reflexivity is what George Soros called it.

只要市场上有新的资本流入，这种状况就会持续下去。

And that continues as long as there is new capital that can be brought into the market.

但1999年的经验表明，当增长无法持续或可能无法持续时，这种递归或反身性就会下降。

But the experience in 1999 was that at a point in time when the growth cannot be sustained or may not be sustained, you have a recursive or reflexivity coming lower.

所谓的循环融资。

The so called circular financing.

我认为这里有两个不同的问题。

I think there are two different issues.

一个是反身性的本质，另一个是资本通过供应商融资的方式获得。

One is the nature of reflexivity and the second is the idea of capital being funded through vendor financing.

在某个时点，供应商本身未必拥有足够的增长能力来支撑这种融资。

At some point, the vendor doesn't necessarily have the same growth to be able to fund that growth.

这是人工智能领域公开市场与私募市场之间的关键区别。

And that's a critical distinction between the public markets and the private markets in AI.

在过去六到八个月里，这是投资者向我们提出的最主要问题，也是他们担忧的焦点。

It is the number one question that we are getting asked by investors really for the last six to eight months and a concern about it.

我认为有必要将问题分解为两个部分：价格和可用性，以及公开市场和私人市场。

I think important to break it into the two pieces, price and availability, and the public and the private markets.

正如你所说，确实存在一些令人担忧的领域。

And as you said, so there is some areas of concern.

但你经常与这些投资者交谈，人们会想：‘市场已经达到了历史高点。’

But you talk to these investors all the time, and people think, Oh, the market's been at an all time high.

我们刚刚谈到了波动性上升。

We've just talked about volatility picked up.

但总体而言，今年市场并没有特别动荡，但对许多投资者来说却是一个艰难的市场。

But in general, it's not been a particularly volatile market this year, but it's been a difficult market for a lot of investors.

为什么会这样？他们最困扰的是什么？

Why is that, and what are they most struggling with?

我认为可以从表现的角度来思考这个问题。

I think you can think about it in terms of the performance.

首先，如果你看一下共同基金，大约29%的共同基金跑赢了其风格基准。

First of all, if you look at the mutual funds, around 29% of the mutual funds are beating their style benchmarks.

这指的是核心基金经理相对于标普500指数的表现，成长型基金经理相对于罗素1000成长指数的表现，以及价值型基金经理相对于罗素1000价值指数的表现。

That would be the relative performance of core managers versus the S and P five hundred index, growth managers versus the Russell one thousand growth index, and value managers versus the Russell one thousand value index.

这些是你通常会考虑的衡量标准，通常大约是37%。

So those are the sort of measures that you think about, And that's typically around 37%.

通常情况下，表现优于基准的共同基金比例要高于当前的情况。

A greater percentage of mutual funds typically outperform than is the current situation here.

如果你看看对冲基金，今年迄今它们的涨幅约为12%，而标普500指数的涨幅约为17%。

And if you think about hedge funds, they're up around 12% year to date, and that's compared with the S and P 500 increase of around 17%.

市场本身表现相当不错。

The market itself has done pretty well.

在这种由人工智能交易主导的环境中，对冲基金和共同基金在相对表现上遇到了困难。

The hedge funds and mutual funds have struggled on a relative basis in this environment, which has been so driven by the AI trade.

我认为，四月份解放日前后出现的不确定性和波动性，使许多投资者在市场大幅下跌时陷入困境。

I think the uncertainty and the volatility that occurred around the Liberation Day in April put a lot of investors in a challenging position as the market sold off a lot.

在市场从今年低点强劲反弹的过程中，许多基金并未相应增加其头寸或总敞口。

A lot of funds did not increase their position, their gross exposure as the market was rallying pretty dramatically in terms of their rebound from the lows this year.

我认为这对许多基金经理来说一直是个挑战。

I think that's been the challenging story for a lot of fund managers.

所以我们谈论聪明的投资者，也就是聪明的钱。

So we talk about the smart investors, the smart money.

现在聪明的钱在做什么？

What is the smart money doing now?

他们看到了哪些机会？

What opportunities did they see?

很难不去持有市场上一些最大的股票，而这正是今年表现的主旋律。

It's difficult not to own some of the biggest stocks in the market, and that is the performance that has been the story for this year.

我认为人们正在寻找基金经理的机会，医疗保健行业在相对基础上是三十年来最便宜的，相对于市场的市盈率倍数也是如此。

I think the opportunities that people are looking for fund managers, healthcare statistically cheapest in thirty years on a relative basis, and the idea relative to the rest of the market, relative PE multiple.

随着一些医疗政策的不确定性可能消退，从价值角度来看，一些防御性行业，比如医疗保健，就出现了机会。

And as the uncertainty around some of the healthcare policy perhaps recedes, there is a opportunity from a value perspective in some of that defensive sectors and healthcare would be an example.

目前客户关注的第二个领域是消费者和零售业。

Second area to focus on or that clients are looking around right now is on the consumer, consumer retail.

许多人对消费者状况感到担忧，包括收入、就业和失业方面。

A lot of concern about the state of the consumer, both an income perspective and from employment and unemployment.

但高盛经济团队正在关注经济中的中等收入群体，发现其实存在一定的稳定性和增长。

But the Goldman Sachs economics team is looking at the sort of middle income component of the economy, that there is actually some stability and some growth.

明年税收改革生效后，将带来一些好处。

There'll be benefits next year from the tax reform that will kick in.

因此，人们普遍担心美国低收入群体，而高收入群体则受益于股市的大幅上涨，而中等收入群体及其相关企业则从中获益。

And so a lot of concern around the lower income strata of The United States, the wealthier cohort on the higher income cohort benefiting from a lot of the rise in the stock market, that middle income, sort of the companies that are benefiting from that.

第三个领域是人工智能的受益者，目前人们高度关注这些受益者，尤其是收入层面。

And the third would be some of the AI beneficiaries, that there is a lot of focus on beneficiaries, particularly on the revenue side.

关于人工智能的几乎所有讨论都集中在企业如何提高利润率、降低成本，这固然重要，但真正专注于用人工智能推动收入增长的具体案例的公司却寥寥无几。

Almost all the discussions around AI tend to be around companies that are looking to improve their margins, lower their cost and raise their margins, which is important, but a relatively few number of companies have actually focused on really concrete examples of how they're using AI to drive their revenue growth.

我认为，基金经理们将拥抱这些领域，并在股价上获得回报。

And I think that is what fund managers will embrace and will be rewarded in those share prices.

我认为这三个领域是：医疗保健、部分消费领域，以及被视作人工智能长期受益者的部分领域。

I think those are three areas, healthcare, some of the consumer areas, and some of the perceived long term beneficiaries from AI.

嗯，价值就在这里。

Well, that's where the value is.

但客户真的会将投资组合转向这些领域吗，还是主要坚持动量交易？

But are clients actually then shifting their portfolios towards these, or are they mostly sticking to the momentum trades?

目前，市场上最大的股票约占指数的三分之一。

Well, the largest stocks in the market are comprising right now around third of the index.

不持有这些股票的想法颇具挑战性。

The idea of not owning those stocks would be as sort of challenging.

为了避免持有它们，你需要承担巨大的风险。

You had a huge amount of risk in order to avoid those.

因此，它们通常以相当大的比例持有这些股票。

So they tend to own those in a meaningful way.

共同基金在这些股票上的配置低于其基准权重。

The mutual funds are underweight those stocks relative to their benchmark.

否则，持仓会过于集中，违反了美国证券交易委员会关于多元化共同基金的规定。

Otherwise, it'd be too concentrated and violate some of the rules on what constitutes a diversified mutual fund from the perspective of the SEC.

因此，它们对最大型股票的配置通常略低，但对冲基金显然仍在拥抱这些表现卓越的公司。

And so they tend to be a little bit under allocated to the biggest stocks, but the hedge funds are definitely still embracing those companies, which have had terrific performance.

这些公司的盈利增长速度远超市场其他部分，我认为这是推动其回报的重要因素。

Are growing their earnings more rapidly than the rest of the market, I think that's an important driver of their returns.

它们正在投入巨额资本支出，这正是人工智能建设背后的核心故事。

They're investing huge amounts of CapEx, and that's really the story behind the AI build out.

因此，人们对这一点充满热情。

So there's a lot of enthusiasm around that.

正如我之前所说，我不认为人工智能证券的公开市场存在泡沫。

As I said earlier, I do not believe there's a bubble in the public markets for the AI securities.

我认为人们对这些产品的商品化存在诸多担忧。

I think there is a lot of concerns around the commoditization of those products.

它们未来能收取怎样的价格？

What are the pricing dynamics of what they can charge in the future?

这种担忧相当普遍，体现在我们与投资者的某些对话中，但只要这些公司持续创造利润，它们仍会持有这些公司。

There's a significant amount of concern, that's reflected in some of the conversations we have with investors, but they're still owning those companies for as long as they keep generating those earnings.

让我问你一下。

Let me ask you.

大约一年前，你对标普500指数的长期回报做出了一个非常保守的预测。

About a year ago, you made news with a very modest forecast for long term S and P 500 returns.

我们谈论的是未来十年。

We're talking over the next decade.

这部分是因为你认为当时的估值过高。

And that was partially due to what you saw as high valuations.

估值不仅没有下降，反而继续上升。

Valuations have only continued to rise, if anything.

那么，你是否仍然坚持这种对长期回报相对悲观的看法？

So do you stand by that relatively dour view of long term returns?

高盛投资组合策略团队最近发布了对未来十年标普500指数回报的预测，而不仅仅是一年前。

The Goldman Sachs portfolio strategy team has recently published, not just a year ago, most recently published a forecast for the returns for the S and P 500 over the next ten years.

其年化总回报率的预测区间在3%到10%之间。

There is a range between three and ten percent annualized total return.

这个区间的中点大约是6.5%，而我相信我们很可能处于这一分布的较低端。

Midpoint of that is around 6.5%, and it is my belief that we're probably going to be in the lower end of that distribution.

首先是这一点。

It's number one.

第二，这一回报率虽然是正数，但低于长期平均水平，我认为其中一个原因是当前的估值起点偏高。

Number two, that is a return that is still positive, but it is below the long term average, And one of the reasons for that, in my opinion, is the starting point of valuation is high.

更重要的是，我仍然担心市场过于集中。

And most importantly, my concern remains around the concentration in the market.

我的看法是：市场高度集中，在这种集中型投资组合中，人们会预期其未来波动性高于广泛分散的投资组合。

And the way I think about it is as follows, that there is a high concentration and in a high concentration portfolio, one would expect a greater level of prospective volatility than a broadly diversified portfolio.

通常情况下，投资者会因为这种高于平均水平的预期波动性而获得补偿，而这种波动性与集中度高的市场相关。

And normally you would think about investor being compensated for the potential above average expected volatility, which would be associated with a narrow concentration market.

但事实并非如此。

But that is not the case.

问题是，市场目前的估值非常高。

The idea is the market trades at a very high valuation.

目前，标普500指数的远期市盈率约为23倍。

Right now, the S and P 500 trades around 23 times forward earnings.

这个估值水平相当高，历史上属于高位，虽然不是最高，但已非常接近历史最高水平。

That's a pretty high, historically high valuation, not the highest, but pretty close to the highest level.

在1999年，该指数的市盈率曾达到24到25倍。

In 1999, it was 24, 25 times as an index.

因此，与历史水平相比，当前估值非常高。

So it's very high versus history.

利润率非常高。

Margins are very, very high.

现在，利润率仍有可能继续上升。

Now they could continue to increase.

这是一种可能性。

That is a possibility.

我认为这种可能性较小。

I think that is probably less likely.

因此，风险在于，随着时间推移，市盈率可能会收缩。

So therefore the risk would be that you have potential multiple contraction over time.

所以，盈利会增长，但估值会下降，我认为今天的高估值很可能导致未来十年的回报低于平均水平——虽然仍是正回报，但低于平均水平。

So earnings will grow, valuation comes down, and I think the valuation is likely to lead to high valuation today lead to a below average, still positive, but below average return in the next ten years.

当然，我希望回报会非常强劲，但从分析角度看，回报低于平均水平的可能性更大。

Of course, I hope it's a really strong return, but analytically, I think it's likely to be below average.

有意思。

Interesting.

让我稍微转换一下话题，因为正如你一开始提到的，你即将结束作为首席股票策略师的全职工作，未来会在公司以其他身份继续任职。

Let me shift the conversation a bit because, as you mentioned at the top of the program, you are about to end your day job as a chief equity strategist, ultimately will be at the firm in other capacities.

我敢肯定，这对你来说是一个反思的时刻。

I'm sure this is a time of reflection for you.

所以我想问你，你还记得你第一天上班的情景吗？那是什么样的？

So let me just ask you, do you still remember your first day, and what was that like?

我第一天在高盛上班的日子，是公司历史上非常特别的一天。

My first day at Goldman Sachs was a very eventful day history of the firm.

并不是因为我加入了，而是因为1994年9月12日，我上班的第一天早上刚到，当晚就有资深合伙人辞职或退休。

Not because I joined, but because on 09/12/1994, my first day on the job, started in the morning and that evening, the senior partner resigned or retired.

那个人是史蒂夫·弗里曼，那一年对这家公司来说非常艰难。

That was Steve Freeman, and that was a very difficult year for the firm.

美联储在那一年七次加息。

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates seven times.

联邦基金利率从3%上升了2.5个百分点，接近5.5%。

The Fed funds rate went up two and a half percentage points from three to almost five and a half percent.

十年期国债收益率从6%上升到8%。

Ten year yields went from six to 8%.

那一年标普500指数的回报率约为2%。

S and P 500 return that year was around 2%.

那对这家公司来说是非常艰难的时期。

It was a very difficult time for the firm.

公司经历了大规模的裁员。

It had an enormous set of layoffs.

所以我清楚地记得我刚到公司第一天的情景。

So I absolutely remember my first day at the firm.

当年第四季度只聘用了两名研究分析师，我负责房地产领域，我的同事史蒂夫·斯特罗根——我共事了二十五年的伙伴——同时被聘用来负责商品领域。

There were only two research analysts that were hired in the fourth quarter, myself to focus on real estate, and my colleague for twenty five years, Steve Strongen, was hired at the same time to focus on commodities.

这两个领域在接下来的几年里推动了公司重回盈利。

Those were the two areas that led the firm back to profitability in the next several years.

这发生在科技泡沫兴起之前。

This was before the rise of the tech bubble.

当时，为房地产筹集资本是推动这一趋势的主要动力。

It was the rise of raising capital for real estate was an enormous driver of that.

我刚加入公司时的一个标志性记忆是，当时有一个副总裁餐厅。

One of my iconic memories for the time I joined is there used to be a vice president's dining room.

所有人都在85号布罗德街的一栋楼里工作，那是一座小而老旧的建筑，里面设有一个可供使用的副总裁餐厅。

Everyone was in 85 Broad Street, single building, small building, old, and they had a vice president's Dining Room, which was available.

那时还没有互联网，你必须打电话预订座位。

There was no internet, so you had to call up, make a reservation.

也许最多能坐100个人。

Maybe you could seat perhaps 100 people maximum.

你可以排队取餐，时间是从中午12点到12点45分。

And you would be able to go through a line, get some food from twelve to 12:45.

这是一轮用餐，之后灯光会切换，你必须离开。

That was one seating, and then they would flip the lights and you had to leave.

然后第二轮用餐时间是从12点45分到下午1点30分。

And then there was another seating from 12:45 to 01:30.

这就是一个标志性的回忆。

And so that was an iconic memory.

我一共用了三次，因为年底就关闭了。

I got to use that three times because it closed at the end of the year.

那里没有自助餐厅，没有健身房，也没有医疗站。

There was no cafeteria, there was no gymnasium, there was no health unit.

那是一座传统的办公楼，但有一个区域你可以报名参加。

It was a traditional office building, but there was this area that you could sign up for.

偶尔，我们会抓住这个不太好的机会一起吃午饭。

Occasionally, we took a bad opportunity to have lunch together.

这也是一个认识其他人的绝佳机会，但我只用了三次。

It was a great opportunity as well to meet other people, but I only got to use it three times.

所以，你的职业生涯开端并不顺利，但从某种意义上说又很幸运，因为正如你所说，你所在的领域最终成为了公司增长最迅猛、最重要的领域之一。

So it was an inauspicious start to your career, but in some ways quite lucky because, as you said, you were in an area that ended up being a tremendous growth area for the firm and a very important area of the firm.

我总是说，运气也起了一定作用。

And I always say luck has something to do with it.

对吧？

Right?

努力工作，但也要靠运气。

Hard work, but luck.

你曾与世界上最具影响力的投资者和资产配置者有过如此多的互动。

You have had so many interactions with the most influential investors and asset allocators in the world.

如果让你回溯过去，有没有一两段对话让你至今难忘？

If you were to think back, are there one or two conversations that have really stuck in your mind?

确实有。

So there are.

我之前提到过，乔治·索罗斯在他的《金融炼金术》一书中，我抓住机会去见他并就这本书进行了讨论。

I mentioned earlier George Soros in his book, The Alchemy of Finance, and took the opportunity to go see him and discuss that.

他的见解源于对房地产证券的分析，而我当时正是房地产分析师。

His insights came from an analysis of real estate securities, and I was the real estate analyst.

2015年，我有理由飞往内布拉斯加州的奥马哈去见沃伦·巴菲特；而早在24年前的1991年，我就已经见过他了。

I had reason in 2015 to fly to Omaha, Nebraska to meet Warren Buffett, And I had another reason twenty four years before that I met him in 1991.

所以我们是在2015年见面的。

So we met in 2015.

当然，我有充分的理由记得上次会面。

Of course, there were reasons why I would remember the previous meeting.

我惊讶的是，他也记得那次会面。

I was shocked that he also had remembered that.

他的记忆力非同寻常，而且问了我很多问题。

His memory was extraordinary and he asked a lot of questions.

我想说，艾莉森，随着时间推移，有几种会议和客户类型让我印象深刻。

I would say, Alison, there's sort of several meetings and client types that resonate with me over time.

这些基金经理与我们的研究、我的研究以及团队其他成员研究互动的方式让我印象深刻。

And it was the way that those fund managers engaged with our research, my research and the research of the rest of the team.

从宏观角度来看，一个是塔德尔投资公司的保罗·琼斯，他如何与我对股票市场的分析进行互动。

And so one is from a macro perspective, Paul Jones at Tudor Investments and the way he would engage with my analysis on the equity market.

他总是思考这些分析对利率市场、货币市场和商品市场意味着什么，他会考虑如何将我们的某些观点或洞见应用于其他领域，并在不同市场中加以运用。

And he was always thinking about what were implications for the rates market, the currency market, the commodities market, as he would think about other ways to implement some of our views or some of our insights into equities and how does he play that across in other areas.

我认为这个过程非常有意义，多年来我有机会与他以及其他宏观投资者互动。

I thought that process and over the many years, I had a chance to interact with him and other macro investors as well.

这让我以一种有趣的方式了解到其他人是如何运用我们的分析的。

That was an interesting way for me to learn how other people incorporate our analysis.

另一种方式是与对冲基金的合作。

Another approach with the hedge funds.

他们更具体、更具战术性地关注单只股票。

They engaged single stocks much more specific, more tactical in nature.

我与Junto Capital的吉姆·帕森斯有过几次特别难忘的会议，每次我去时，我们都会分析他投资组合中公布的多头头寸。

I have a particularly strong memories with a number of meetings with Jim Parsons at Junto Capital where I would go in, we did the analysis of the positions that were published on the long side of his portfolio.

我们会进去对他说：吉姆，我觉得你应该卖出这些股票。

We would go in, we say, Jim, I think you should be selling these stocks.

你应该买入这些股票。

You should be buying these stocks.

我们会进行一场持续一个半小时的激烈对话。

And we would have a very intense dialogue over an hour and a half meeting.

他有一张极佳的扑克脸，我根本无法判断他是同意还是反对，或者他空头仓位的情况如何。

And he has an amazing poker face, so I could never tell if he was agreeing or disagreeing or what he had on the short side of his book.

这一系列会议让我印象尤为深刻。

That was a series of those meetings that really stand out.

第三类是共同基金经理。

And the third classification would be mutual fund managers.

我与唐·奥尼尔有过很多次会议，他在资本集团工作了四十年后退休。

And there, I have a lot of meetings with Don O'Neill who retired after forty years at the Capital Group.

那里的会议总是围绕着更长远的视角，探讨如果发生X情况会怎样，以及你如何思考这个问题？

The meetings there were always about the longer horizon and what happens if X development takes place and how do you think about that?

我们的分析既有短期观点，也有长期观点，但他会强烈挑战我的思维过程，促使我拓展思路。

And our analysis, we had some nearer term views, longer term views, but he would really challenge my thought process to expand it.

所以当我回想起这些，艾莉森，我认为客户会议是我工作中最精彩的部分，与各种类型的基金经理交流。

So when I think back, Alison, the client meetings, that is the best part of the job in my opinion, to engage with fund managers of all types.

有些研究工作，他们会要求我们为他们做一些定制化项目，这让我在多年工作中获得了极大的乐趣。

And some of the research, they would ask us to do some customized projects for them, which really gave a lot of enjoyment to the job over many years.

没错。

Right.

拥有这些不同的视角，会让你的研究更加出色。

And it makes your research better having all of these different perspectives.

当然。

Absolutely.

与客户互动。

Engaging with the clients.

这正是我们在高盛进行投资研究时所努力的核心——与全球一些顶尖投资者互动。

And that was a heart of what we try to do at Goldman with our investment research to engage with some of the leading investors in the world.

资本市场的变化在过去三十年你的职业生涯中显然也发生了巨大变化。

Capital markets have obviously also changed dramatically over the past thirty years of your career.

当你回望一些最大的变化时，有没有哪些变化你觉得其影响被普遍低估了？

When you think back to some of the biggest changes, are there any that you feel have generally been underappreciated for their impact?

从我的角度来看，我的职业生涯初期非常侧重于资产。

My perspective, I think, about the arc of my career, it was very asset focused at the beginning of my career.

事实上，昨晚我有机会与埃里克·多德金共进晚餐，他是高盛一位非常著名的资深合伙人，正是他在这里的高盛发明了股权资本市场。

And in fact, last evening, had the opportunity to have dinner with Eric Dodkin, a very prominent senior partner at Goldman, but he was the one who invented the equity capital markets on Wall Street here at Goldman.

我和他在20世纪90年代共同参与了多项股权发行项目，我们当时聊起了那些往事。

He and I worked together on a number of equity offerings in the 1990s and we reminisced around that.

但关于资产、资产价值、公司价值以及投资者如何看待特定公司的理念，已经发生了演变。

But the idea of assets and the asset value and what is a company worth and how to think about that in terms of how investors will embrace a particular company has evolved.

虽然这仍然重要，但我们现在讨论的很多内容都围绕着市场的阿尔法收益。

While it's still important, a lot of the discussions that we have now are around alpha in the market.

我所说的指的是各个公司的特征。

What I mean by that are the characteristics of individual companies.

这些公司可以被整体视为一个组合。

The companies can be collectively viewed as part of a basket.

我们从2006年开始引入这种方式，距今已近二十年，不仅交易单个公司，还将它们归入某些类别，比如那些更多依赖非美国收入、资产负债表更强或具有某些特定属性的公司群。

And we started to introduce this in 2006, which is almost twenty years ago, ways of trading not just individual companies, of course, but they may group those in certain categories, whether they're a group of companies that are more exposed to non US revenues or stronger balance sheets or certain attributes of companies.

投资者多年来一直在交易这些类别。

And investors have been trading those over time.

这使我的客户对话从关注资产转向了关注阿尔法收益。

That's increased my client conversations by costs from assets to alpha.

这种现象此前就已存在，但我认为它已成为一种日益明显的趋势。

That existed before, but I think it's become ever more so as a trend.

因此，这并不是总被充分认识或重视的，但我认为这是过去几十年中一项重要的发展。

And so that's not something that is always appreciated or viewed, but I think that is something an important development over the last couple decades.

因此，从某种程度上说，策略师的工作职责随着你对这些策略实施的思考而发生了变化。

And so in some ways, the job of a strategist has changed as you thought about implementation of some of these strategies.

过去三十年里，这份工作还有哪些其他变化？

How else has the job changed over the last thirty years?

它在许多重要方面都发生了变化。

It has changed in a number of important ways.

我们所使用的框架实际上非常相似。

The framework that we use is actually quite similar.

我会从经济、收益、估值和资金流动这几个角度来思考。

I think about it in terms of the economy, earnings, valuation, and money flow.

我把它们看作一张桌子的四条腿，试图理解机会可能出现在哪里。

And I think about those as almost four legs of a table and trying to understand where the opportunities may exist.

我们是否应该关注经济周期？

Is it an economic cycle we should be thinking about?

我们是否应该关注收益和利润率，以及哪些是压力点、不同行业群体的估值，机会在哪里，资金流向何方？

Should we be thinking about earnings and margins and what are the stress points, different industry groups, valuations, where are there opportunities and where's the money flow coming from?

这一框架在很长一段时间内都保持了相当的一致性。

That framework has remained pretty consistent over a long period of time.

这是我从我的前任史蒂夫·艾恩霍恩那里学到的深刻一课，他雇佣了我。

That was a lesson that I learned very clearly from Steve Einhorn, one of my predecessors, he hired me.

在过去五十五年里，高盛共有四位股票策略师。

There has been four equity strategists at Goldman Sachs in the last fifty five years.

在同一时期，公司共有九位高级合伙人和首席执行官。

During that same period of time, there's been nine senior partners and CEOs of the company.

因此，这四位策略师中，李·库珀曼非常专注于股票。

And so the four strategists, you had Lee Cooperman, really focused on stocks.

史蒂夫·艾恩霍恩则关注一种结合经济与股票的框架。

Steve Einhorn looked at both a framework involving the economy and stocks.

我的直接前任艾比·科恩，非常擅长聚焦经济形势及其对股票市场的影响。

Abby Cohen, my immediate predecessor, really had a way of focusing on the economy, what the implications were for the equity market.

而我本人，可能将重心稍微向史蒂夫的定位靠得更近了一些，这与我作为股票分析师、覆盖个股的背景更为一致。

Myself, I perhaps moved the pendulum a little bit more closer to where Steve positioned it, it was more consistent with my background as an equity analyst, covering individual stocks.

因此，我所进行的许多对话都与股票相关。

So a lot of the conversations I had relate to stocks.

我的继任者是本·斯奈德，他过去十五年一直和我共事，他会形成自己的方法，但这些都是我所见证的发展。

My successor, is Ben Snyder, he's worked with me for the last fifteen years, he will develop his own approach, but those are the developments that I've seen.

大卫，你在这里高盛的职业生涯显然非常成功。

David, you've obviously had a hugely successful career here at Goldman.

很少有人能在高盛这样显要的职位上待上三十年以上。

Not many people are at Goldman for more than thirty years in a very prominent seat.

因此，如果我不问你对今天刚进入高盛或进入职场的人有什么建议，那就失职了。

So I would be remiss if I didn't ask you what advice you have for people who are entering Goldman Sachs today or entering the workforce today.

所以有一个普遍的观察，虽然老生常谈，那就是努力工作之类的事情。

So there's a general observation's banal, if you will, work hard and things like that.

我认为，对于任何企业，尤其是高盛而言，一位刚加入公司的年轻人，重要的是要思考自己的角色以及它如何融入更广泛的商业环境。

And I think the important point for any business, and particularly Goldman Sachs, a young person who's joining the firm, is to think about one's role and how that fits into the broader business environment.

我的意思是，如果你了解自己所处的位置以及对商业流程的贡献，你就能看到这些随着时间如何变化。

And what I mean by that is if you understand where you sit and your contributions to the commercial process, then you can see how that changes over time.

当你看到这些变化时，你就能发现哪些地方可能存在不同的视角，以应对客户的问题。

And as you see that change over time, you can see where are there opportunities to perhaps have a variant perspective on how to approach client problems.

我认为这一点并没有得到足够的重视。

And I think that is not appreciated as much.

每个人最初都从一个相对初级的岗位开始，因为你通常资历较浅，可以观察到许多资深人士，但理解你的工作如何融入更宏观的视角至关重要。

Each person starts in a modest role because you're more junior generally and you can observe a lot of senior people, but understanding how your tasks fit into a broader perspective is important.

无论你是从事研究、投资银行、交易还是销售，我认为这种视角都非常重要。

Whether that is somebody in research, whether that's investment banking, whether that's trading, whether sales, I think that is an important perspective.

其次，要意识到外部客户的范围极其广泛。

And the second is to think about the fact that there's an enormous breadth of clients that are out there.

你要想到主权财富基金、养老基金、保险公司、捐赠基金、对冲基金和共同基金，它们都在以不同的方式关注公开市场或私募市场、风险投资或私募股权，以寻求回报。

And you think about sovereign wealth funds and pension funds and insurance companies and endowments and hedge funds and mutual funds, all of whom are looking at a public market or private market, venture capital or private equity, that is approaching the challenge of getting returns in different ways.

它们的期限各不相同。

They have different horizons.

它们的风险承受能力也各不相同。

They have different risk tolerances.

因此，这份工作才如此充满活力和吸引力。

And so that has made the job energizing and engaging.

我每年旅行超过一百天，持续了二十多年。

I traveled more than a 100 days a year for more than a couple of decades.

所有这些不同的对话，最终将是我最难忘的，尤其是我在高盛与同事们之间的互动。

And all those different conversations are really what I will remember finally, and particularly my engagement with colleagues here at Goldman Sachs.

能够在这家公司工作三十多年是一种荣幸，我留下了属于自己的印记，并将接力棒交给了我的继任者本·斯奈德，我相信他会做得非常出色。

It's been an honor to be at the firm for more than thirty years and to leave my mark and then also transition to my successor, Ben Snyder, who I think will do a great job.

很好。

Great.

大卫，非常感谢你今天抽出时间。

David, thank you so much for your time today.

而且，就我个人而言，我想再次感谢你提供的所有见解、幽默和坦诚的交流。

And again, speaking personally, I just, again, want to thank you for all the insights, all the humor, all the candid discussions.

我无法统计在你办公室度过的下午有多少次，每次都远超我原本的预期，但那些故事啊，大卫。

I can't count the number of afternoons I've spent in your office spending much longer than I anticipated, but the stories, David.

我会怀念这些故事，我始终坚持我的观点：没有人能像大卫·科斯汀那样点亮整个房间。

I'm gonna miss the stories, and I stand by my view that nobody can light up a room like David Costin can.

所以我们真的很想念你，我相信了解你的观众也会同意我的看法。

So we are going to really miss you, and I am sure our audience who knows you well will agree with me.

谢谢，艾莉森。

Thanks, Allison.

能在高盛工作这么多年是一种荣幸，而与你的对话也是我最珍贵的回忆之一。

It's been a pleasure to be Goldman Sachs for a long time, and also my conversations with you are among my finer memories.

谢谢。

Thank you.

感谢您收听本次高盛交流节目，本节目录制于12月2日星期二。

And thank you for listening to this episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges, which was recorded on Tuesday, December 2.

我是艾莉森·纳撒恩。

I'm Allison Nathan.

此处表达的观点和看法为发布日期时的观点，可能在未经通知的情况下发生变化，且不一定反映高盛或其关联机构的机构观点。

The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication subject to change without notice and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates.

所提供的材料仅用于信息参考目的，不构成投资建议，不构成高盛任何实体对采取任何特定行动的推荐，也不构成购买或出售任何证券或金融产品的要约或要约邀请。

The material provided is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products.

本材料可能包含前瞻性陈述。

This material may contain forward looking statements.

过往表现并不预示未来结果。

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

高盛及其任何关联方均不对本材料中陈述或信息的准确性或完整性作出任何明示或暗示的声明，并对任何人在任何目的下依赖此类信息而产生的任何责任一概不承担。

Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties expressed or implied as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein, and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose.

文中提及的任何第三方机构名称均属于相关公司所有，此处仅用于信息和识别目的，不意味着任何此类公司与高盛之间存在任何所有权或许可关系。

Each name of a third party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only, and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.

为方便起见，此处提供文字稿，但其内容可能与原始视频或音频内容有所不同。

A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content.

高盛不对文字稿中的任何错误负责。

Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript.

未经高盛明确书面同意，任何接收方不得复制、分发、发布或全文或部分复制本材料，亦不得向任何其他人披露。

This material should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs.

有关本材料中提及的发行人的研究适用的披露信息，可通过您的高盛代表或访问 www.gs.com/research/hedge.html 获取。

Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

高盛不支持任何候选人或任何政党。

Goldman Sachs does not endorse any candidate or any political party.

版权所有 2025 年，高盛。

Copyright 2025, Goldman Sachs.

保留所有权利。

All rights reserved.