随着AI令牌使用量的增长，数据中心电力需求的前景

从电力需求的角度来看，AI带来的用电量相当于整个日本的用电量，而日本是全球第五大电力消费国。

To put in perspective what is AI doing from a power demand perspective, it's adding the power equivalent of the whole country of Japan, which is the number five power consuming country.

所以这真的很重要。

So this is really significant.

上次我们坐下来聊AI和电力的时候，争论的焦点是电网能不能承受得住。

The last time we sat down to talk about AI and power, the debate was whether the grid could handle it.

现在这个问题已经有了答案，而且答案基本上是最让人不安的那种：部分能承受，分布不均，而且代价高昂。

That question has now been answered in basically the least comforting way possible: partly, unevenly, and expensively.

欢迎回到AI交易所。

Welcome back to AI Exchanges.

我是艾莉森·内森，今天和我一起的是高盛全球研究所的联席主管乔治·李。

I'm Allison Nathan, and I'm here together with George Lee, the co head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute.

我们一起主持一系列节目，探讨AI的崛起以及它对公司、投资者和经济可能意味着的一切。

Together, we're co hosting a series of episodes exploring the rise of AI and everything it could mean for companies, investors, and economies.

乔治，很高兴再次见到你。

George, great to see you again.

很高兴来到这里。

Great to be here.

那么，乔治，我们先为关注这个系列的朋友们梳理一下背景。

So, George, let's first set the table for people who have followed this series.

我们最初讨论这个话题时，简单来说就是，在电力负荷几乎持平了近二十年之后，AI将推动数据中心电力需求出现一个台阶式的增长。

When we first covered this topic, the shorthand was basically that AI would drive a step change in data center power demand after nearly two decades of essentially flat electricity load.

但自那以后，需求预测又上调了。

But since then, demand forecasts have gone up again.

尽管我们多次讨论过，模型已经变得更高效。

Even as we've discussed many times, models have become more efficient.

制约因素已经从兆瓦级转移到了我所说的那些“T”上。

The binding constraint has migrated away from megawatts and towards what I think of as all the Ts.

我们有涡轮机、变压器、输电线路，还有技术工人。

We have turbines, transformers, transmission, and tradespeople.

所以，新的制约因素出现了。

So new constraints entering the picture.

而且政治因素也来了。

And the politics have arrived.

所以现在监管机构、电费缴纳者和邻居们真的都参与进来了，对这件事有很多话要说。

So we have regulators, rate payers, and neighbors now really having a seat at the table and having a lot to say about this topic.

在我们请专家来之前，你觉得这个话题上最大的变化是什么？

So before we bring in the expert storage, what's the single biggest thing that's changed in your mind on this topic?

我觉得有一点和我的预期一致，就是需求周期还在继续。

I think one thing that kind of syncs with my expectations is the demand cycle continues.

有趣的是，正如你所说，供应链从模型一直延伸到所有物理设施，几乎一直追溯到基础元素，都被拉得很紧。

And what's fascinating is to watch, as you described, the supply chain get stretched all the way back from models, but to all of the physical affordances, really almost all the way back to the base elements.

所以这是世界上最复杂、最精细、最全球化的供应链之一。

And so this is one of the most complex, intricate, and global supply chains in the world.

今天和我们的嘉宾聊聊这个情况如何发展，真正的瓶颈在哪里，以及我们能否克服这些瓶颈和你提到的政治问题，会很有意思。

It'd be fascinating to talk with our guests today about how that's playing out, where the real bottlenecks are, and whether we can navigate those bottlenecks and the political issues you described.

对。

Yes.

所以我们请来了我们认为最合适的人来讨论这个话题，帮我们理清这一切。

So we have brought in what we think of as exactly the right people to talk about this and help us untangle it all.

再次加入我们的是我在高盛研究的同事，布莱恩·辛格和卡莉·达文波特。

Joining us again are my colleagues in Goldman Sachs Research, Brian Singer and Carly Davenport.

布莱恩是GS Sustain的全球主管，他负责思考创新周期以及这一切在可持续性方面的权衡。

Brian is the global head of GS Sustain, and he thinks about the innovation cycle and the sustainability trade offs of all of this.

卡莉是我们美国公用事业团队的高级分析师。

Carly is our America's Utility Team Senior Analyst.

她负责计算我们需要多少电力，以及这些电力将从哪里来。

She puts the numbers on just how much power we're going to need and where it's all gonna come from.

那么，布莱恩、卡莉，欢迎来到我们的节目。

So Brian, Carly, welcome to the program.

谢谢邀请我们。

Thanks for having us.

谢谢。

Thank you.

很高兴你们两位能来。

Great to have you both.

Carly，我们先从你开始吧。

Carly, let's start with you.

你和你的团队最近上调了对美国整体电力需求的预测。

You and your team recently raised your overall US power demand outlook.

是什么促使了这个变化，这对电力需求意味着什么？

What prompted that change, and where does it leave us in terms of power demand?

对。

Yeah.

我们最近把到2030年的年均复合增长率预测上调到了3.5%，之前是大约3.2%。

So we recently raised our forecast up to a three and a half percent CAGR through 2030, and that was up from our prior forecast of about 3.2% CAGR through 2030.

而且就像George刚才提到的，我们对这个需求周期依然很有信心。

And we continue to be convicted in the demand cycle as George was just mentioning.

从目前电力需求的增长情况来看，今年到目前为止已经增长了超过4%。

As we think about where we sit today in power demand growth, year to date, we're up over 4%.

所以，我们觉得已经走在实现到2030年保持3%复合年增长率的轨道上了。

And so we feel like we're already on our road to maintaining that 3% CAGR through 2030.

那么，是什么推动了这次预测的调整呢？

Now what drove that forecast change?

主要原因是我们对数据中心电力需求前景的预测进行了上调。

The main thing was a positive revision in our data center power demand outlook.

我们使用的是Four Five One Research的数据集，我们发现有几个

We use a dataset from four five one Research, and we saw a couple of

情况

things

发生了变化。

change.

一方面，随着该领域持续聚焦开发，大量新项目被加入队列，这使得我们203年的数据中心电力需求预测从之前的约83吉瓦上升至约108吉瓦。

One is a lot of new projects were added to the queue as we continue to see focused development in this area, And that has taken our data center power demand in 2030 up to about a 108 gigawatts, up from about 83 gigawatts before.

所以确实有新项目在不断加入。

So there's new projects being added.

这是第一点。

That's point number one.

第二点是，我们也看到现有数据中心的利用率在提高。

Point number two is we're also seeing increased utilization of the existing data centers that we have.

所以，我们看到美国所有主要数据中心市场的空置率都在下降。

So we've seen vacancy rates on data centers in The US coming down across all of the major data center markets.

现在大概在1%到2%左右。

They're sitting today around 1% to 2%.

过去几年，这个数字在2%到7%之间波动。

Over the last few years, they were ranging from about two to 7%.

所以，除了新增项目之外，现有基础设施的利用率和入驻率也在提高，我们预测到2030年，美国平均空置率约为3%。

So we're seeing increased utilization and occupancy of existing infrastructure in addition to the new projects that are getting added, and we forecast about a 3% vacancy rate in 2030 on a US average basis.

布莱恩，感觉你上次来好像就是昨天的事，但其实已经是三月份了。

Brian, it seems like just yesterday you were here with us, but it was March.

那时候，你刚刚上调了数据中心电力需求的预测。

And at that time, you had just raised your data center power demand estimates.

所以现在过了三四个月了。

So here we are three or four months later.

去年我们聊了很多关于效率提升对这个数字的影响。

Last year, we talked a lot about the impact of potential efficiency gains on that number.

从你的角度来看，这个情况是怎么发展的，尤其是随着代理式AI的兴起，今年年初它就开始显现，而且还在持续增长。

How has it played out from your perspective, especially with the rise of agentic AI, which remarkably, it was starting to inflect at the beginning of this year, but is only continued to grow.

对。

Yeah.

问得好。

Good question.

回到三月初那会儿，我们和我们的分析师预测，2027年超大规模数据中心的支出大约是1.2万亿美元。

If we go back to that period at the beginning of March, we were projecting and our analysts were projecting hyperscaler spending was at about 1,200,000,000,000 for 2027.

那是1.7万亿美元的净额。

That's 1,700,000,000,000 net.

2029年超大规模数据中心的支出预测是1.5万亿美元。

Hyperscaler spending for 2029 was projected at 1,500,000,000,000.

现在这个数字是2.1万亿美元。

That's today at 2,100,000,000,000.

那我们就从这儿说起吧。

So let's just start right there.

这比之前对超大规模数据中心支出的多年预期有了显著提升。

That's a significant increase over a multiyear period in hyperscaler expected spending.

接下来我们往下看，看看电力需求。卡莉提到了2030年容量建设将增长25%。

Now let's work our way down to get to power demand, and Carly referenced the 25% increase in 2030 capacity build out.

另外，我们的TMT团队也上调了对AI相关服务器出货量的预期。

Additionally, our TMT teams have raised their expectations for the shipments of AI related servers.

所以，当所有这些因素都摆在那儿的时候，很难不进一步上调预测，哪怕这才过了几个月。

So it's hard to ignore when you have all of those factors to not further raise forecasts even though it's only been a handful of months.

而我们也正是这么做的。

And so that's what we've done.

从全球范围来看，不只是美国，全球范围内，2030年的数据中心电力需求预计将比2025年增长约170%。

If we look globally, so not just The US, but globally, we see data center power demand in 2030 up about a 170% from 2025 levels.

我们三月初上次谈话时，这个数字大约是117%。

We were at about a 117% back at the beginning of March when we last spoke.

那么，从电力需求的角度来看，除了数据中心，人工智能还在做什么呢？

So to put in perspective, what is AI doing from a power demand perspective in addition to data centers?

如果我们从2024年初开始算起，到本十年末这七年里，它增加的电力需求相当于整个日本的用电量，而日本是全球第五大电力消费国。

If we start the clock at the beginning of twenty twenty four, so a seven year period through the end of the decade, it's adding the power equivalent of the whole country of Japan, which is the number five power consuming country.

这确实非常重大。

This is really significant.

到目前为止，关于你提到的生产力问题，我们还没有看到生产力提升对科技研发预算产生负面影响。

Thus far, to your question on productivity, we haven't seen the productivity gains impact and negatively impact tech r and d budgets.

这是当前周期中大家关注的一个大问题：什么时候消费者会看到这些生产力提升，然后说，与其花同样的钱消耗更多的计算和代币，我宁愿少花钱，但消耗同样的计算和代币。

And this is the big question out there as we think about the cycle is when will we get to a point where consumers will see these productivity gains and say, instead of spending the same amount of money consuming more tokens in compute, I'm going to spend less money and consume the same tokens in compute.

我觉得我们还没到那一步。

I don't think we're there yet.

我们现在是否到了这样一个阶段：消费者会认为可以削减科技研发预算，而不必担心竞争地位？

Are we at a point today where consumers will think we can lower our tech r and d budgets and not worry about our competitive positioning?

我不确定我们是否已经到了那个阶段。

I'm not sure we're there yet.

你现在正身处其中，每天都在处理这些细节，所以我当然很想听听你的看法。

Now you're in the middle of this and in the weeds every day, so I'm certainly interested in your view.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得有趣的是，所有那些预期或预计的效率提升确实都在发生，但需求曲线不仅抵消了这些提升，还在以你描述的速度继续扩张。

I think what's fascinating about it is that all those expected or anticipated efficiency gains are actually happening, and yet the demand profile is both recovering those and expanding at the rate you described.

所以你说的那座山表面上看已经很陡峭了，但实际上比看起来还要陡，因为所有这些系统里都有token效率的提升。

So the hill you described is so steep on its face, but it's actually almost greater than it would seem because there is token efficiency taking hold in all of these systems.

整个供应链都有效率提升，但我们正用需求压过这些效率。

There's efficiency throughout the supply chain, and we're overwhelming that with demand.

所以我觉得这更凸显了需求曲线的强劲。

So I think it even punctuates the demand profile even more strongly.

是的。

Yeah.

我们注意到消费者现在在更仔细地审视他们如何使用token以及在哪里使用token，不知道你是否也看到了这个趋势。

One thing we are seeing consumers doing, and I don't know if you're seeing this as well, is really taking a bit more of a closer look at how they're consuming tokens and where they're consuming tokens.

我认为这标志着他们开始尝试降低消费强度，而不一定对产出造成负面影响。

And that, I think, is the beginning of some level of trying to reduce consumption intensity without necessarily negatively impacting output.

我相信我们还会看到更多这样的情况，但这并不意味着整体的token消费需求已经饱和。

I'm sure we'll see more of that, but that doesn't mean that the aggregate token consumption interest isn't still pent up.

对。

Yep.

我观察到的另一个动态是，随着我们提高效率并更明智地使用token，这实际上拓宽了企业内部经济上可行的任务范围。

And one of the dynamics I'm observing is as we garner that efficiency and we think more judiciously about token usage, what that does is actually it opens the horizon of economically addressable tasks within the enterprise.

token变得更便宜了。

Tokens get cheaper.

使用效率提高了，这扩大了对这种商品的可寻址市场需求。

You're more efficient with their usage, and that expands the demand for the addressable market for this commodity.

而且，在你那些雄心勃勃的预测背后，还有多种动态在同时上演，真是令人着迷。

And, again, fascinating set of multiple dynamics playing out beneath the waves of your very ambitious estimates.

我们把话题拉回到电力需求上吧，Carly，因为你在美国区域影响方面做了很多研究。

Let's bring this back to power demand, Carly, because you've done a lot of work on the implications regionally for The US.

关于需求增长的地方，最让你惊讶的是什么？是什么在推动这种增长？

What surprised you most about where demand is growing, and what's driving that?

对。

Yeah.

让我先从当前的情况说起吧。

Let me maybe start with where we are today.

美国数据中心电力需求最大的三个市场是PJM，也就是中大西洋市场，目前占数据中心需求的35%左右。

The top three data center power demand markets in The US are PJM, which is the Mid Atlantic market that houses about 35% of data center demand today.

第二是德州的ERCOT，目前占数据中心需求的15%左右。

Second is ERCOT in Texas that houses about 15% of data center demand today.

第三名是东南部和太平洋西北部并列，各占约13%的电力需求。

And then there's a tie for third between the Southeast and the Pacific Northwest, housing about 13% of power demand.

那么，到2030年，我们预计会有什么变化，或者保持不变呢？

So what do we expect to change or not through 2030?

首先，我们预计到2030年，PJM仍将是美国数据中心市场的主导力量。

Firstly, we expect PJM to remain the dominant data center market in The US through 2030.

我们认为它们将保持占美国总电力需求的35%份额。

We think that they'll maintain their share at 35% of overall US power demand.

而且，我们认为这个市场有几个方面仍然具有吸引力。

There's And a few things we think remain attractive about that market.

那里有很多商业核能发电能力，数据中心公司很喜欢。

There's a lot of merchant nuclear capacity there that data center companies like.

那里有高压输电骨干网，而且已经有很多数据中心集群，我们认为这有利于持续开发。

There's a high voltage transmission backbone, and you have a lot of existing data center clusters there that we think make it attractive for continued development.

我们分析得出的第二个结论，也是让我们感到惊讶的是，MISO市场，也就是美国中大陆地区，从明尼苏达州到路易斯安那州，到2030年将超过ERCOT、东南部和西北部，成为美国第二大数据中心市场。

The second takeaway we've had from our analysis is was surprising to us was that the MISO market, which is the midcontinent of The US, so think from Minnesota down to Louisiana, is going to overtake ERCOT, the Southeast, and the Northwest and become the second largest data center market in The US by 2030.

我们预计到2030年，它们将占美国数据中心市场的约16%。

We think they'll make up about 16% of the data center market in The US by 2030.

MISO的有趣之处在于，那里有很多受监管的公用事业公司，它们实际上是在为这些数据中心建设发电能力，而不是像在PJM或ERCOT市场那样由开发商来做。

And what's interesting about MISO is you have a lot of regulated utilities that are actually building the power generation capacity for these data centers versus a developer doing it as you would see in a PJM or an ERCOT market.

所以我们看到像爱荷华州、威斯康星州、路易斯安那州这些地方，以及那里的受监管公用事业公司，正在推动MISO市场的加速发展。

And so we see states like Iowa, Wisconsin, Louisiana, and the regulated utilities there driving a lot of this acceleration in the MISO market.

最后是德克萨斯州的ERCOT市场。

And then lastly, ERCOT in Texas.

我们认为那里仍然会有强劲的增长。

We think you'll still see strong growth there.

到2030年，ERCOT将成为美国第三大数据中心市场。

We see ERCOT as the third largest data center market in The US by 2030.

到那时，它们将占整体数据中心需求的约14%。

We think they'll make up about 14% of overall data center demand by the time we get out there.

最近，由于州长对数据中心项目进行审计的一些行动，德克萨斯州成为了焦点。

And Texas has been a big focus recently given some of the governor's actions around auditing data center projects.

所以目前这个增长前景存在一些不确定性。

So there's some uncertainty on that growth outlook today.

但就目前而言，我们仍然认为它是一个重要的数据中心市场。

But where we stand now, we still see them as an important data center market.

那你为什么觉得受监管的公用事业公司

And why do you see the regulated utilities

在MISO市场中会扮演更重要的角色？

playing a bigger role in MISO?

他们的动机是什么？

What's their motivation for that?

对。

Yeah.

我觉得其中一个原因是，他们提供一站式服务。

I think one part of it is it's a one stop shop.

对吧？

Right?

你直接去找公用事业公司。

You come to the utility.

他们跟监管机构有关系。

They have the relationships with the regulators.

他们和社区也有关系。

They have the relationships with the community.

他们能提供从发电厂到输电再到配电的一切服务，你只需要和一个对手方打交道，而不是像在放松管制的电力市场那样。

They can give you everything from the power plant to the transmission to the distribution, and you're working with one counterparty versus if you're in a deregulated power market.

在那种市场里，你得和发电开发商谈电厂的事，还得和公用事业公司谈电网接入的事。

You're having to work with the power developer for your power plant, and then you're still needing to work with the utility for your grid connection.

所以我觉得谈判会复杂一些。

And so it's a little bit more, I think, of a complex negotiation.

另外，在受监管的公用事业市场中，监管机构对价值链每个环节向客户收取的费用都有完全的控制权。

The other piece of it is in a regulated utility market, the regulators have full control over what is being charged to customers at every point of the value chain.

定价不一定受供需动态影响。

You don't have supply demand dynamics necessarily driving pricing.

价格是由监管机构设定的。

It's set by a regulator.

所以，我们认为在受监管的市场中，可以更好地管理客户负担能力方面的一些担忧。

And so you can better manage some of the concerns on customer affordability, we think, in the regulated markets.

那么，Brian，我们在需求方面看法一致，但真正的问题是供应能否跟上那条非常雄心勃勃的增长曲线？

So, Brian, you and I sang in harmony on the demand picture, but the real question is can supply keep up with that very ambitious curve?

你有一个框架，你更新了关于这方面的约束理论。

You have a framework that you've updated on sort of the theory of constraints in this.

谈谈你如何看待我们在建设足够供应方面的阻力。

Talk through how you see the headwinds relative to our ability to build enough supply.

当然。

Sure.

所以好消息是，正如我们强调的，我们已经上调了长期展望，但同时，这些约束也在不断增加。

So the good news, as we highlighted, is we have made these upward revisions to the long term outlook, but at the same time, there are these growing constraints.

当我们上次在三月交谈时，我们谈到了六个P。

And when we last spoke in March, we talked about the six Ps.

我知道你有一些很棒的T，我完全同意Allison，你的T。

I know you have some great Ts, and I totally agree Allison, your Ts.

我们谈到了六个P，它们既推动又限制了电力增长。

We've talked about the six Ps that are both driving and constraining power growth.

我们后来其实又加了第七个P。

We've actually subsequently added a seventh p.

那我们就来深入聊聊这些。

So let's dig into them.

第一个就是AI的普及程度。

So the first is the pervasiveness of AI.

随着AI的规模和范围不断扩大，它现在依然是增长的一个驱动力。

It still seems that is now a driver of growth as it continues to expand size and scope.

然后是服务器、芯片、模型的效率，但就目前来看，就像我们之前说的，这并没有导致预算有任何下降的趋势。

Then there's the productivity of servers, chips, models, and it doesn't look like today that is driving, as we talked about, any kind of downward moves in budgets.

需求仍然很旺盛。

Demand is still pent up.

接下来是电力价格。

Then there's the price of power.

在我们看来，这对超大规模云服务商来说不是什么大问题，也不用太担心。

This we see as less of an issue and less of a concern for the hyperscalers.

对于普通消费者和社区来说，这是一个大问题，我知道我们接下来会谈到。

It is a big concern, as I know we'll talk about, for everyday consumers and communities.

政策。

Policy.

这里面又分了三个小点。

Now there's three sub p's within that.

我觉得你之前也提到过一些。

And, I think you referenced it a bit.

就是许可审批、抵制情绪，还有民粹主义。

There's permitting, there's pushback, and there's populism.

这些确实正在成为潜在的担忧和制约因素。

And that is certainly rising as a potential concern and constraint.

不过同时，我知道我们也会谈到，有些政府会说，嘿。

Although at the same time, as I know we'll talk about, some of the governments are saying, hey.

我们就是想解决这个问题，确保它不会变成长期的制约，所以现在就要制定合适的法规。

We just wanna tackle this issue and just make sure that it doesn't become a longer term constraint by trying to actually get the right regulations in place today.

然后我们说到零部件，这里有几个T，就是变压器和涡轮机。

So then we get to parts, and these are a couple of the Ts with the transformers and turbines.

一家主要的涡轮机制造商在最近一次电话会议上表示，他们预计到今年年底，2031年的产能就已经售出一半了。

One of the major turbine manufacturers on their most recent conference call said that they expect that by the end of this year, they'll be halfway sold out for 2031.

所以这仍然是一个重大的潜在制约因素，而且它不一定是对整体电力需求的制约。

So this is still a significant potential constraint, and it's not necessarily a constraint on overall power demand.

它是对电力来源方式的制约。

It's a constraint on how power is being sourced.

然后我们稍后会再详细讨论这一点，但我们仍然认为，而且卡莉在这方面确实起了带头作用，短期内我们会看到更多的天然气简单循环，短期内也会看到更多的可再生能源加电池储能，中期是天然气联合循环，长期则是核能。

And then we'll talk a little bit about that a bit more, but we still kinda think, and Carly's really taken the lead on this, that we'll see more natural gas simple cycle in the near term, and we'll see more renewables plus battery storage in the near term, natural gas combined cycle in the medium term, nuclear, and the longer term.

然后我们说到人力。

Then we get to people.

我们仍然非常需要更多的电工和能够处理高压连接的焊工。当电力需求完全没有增长的时候，就像美国过去十年那样，人们几乎没有动力进入这些领域。

We are still absolutely in need of more electricians, welders that can handle high voltage connectivity When power demand wasn't growing at all, which was the case in The US for a decade, there was little incentive to go into these fields.

而现在预期发生了如此巨大的变化，但响应需要时间，因为至少需要四年的培训才能胜任并获得认证。

And now there's the expectations have changed so significantly that it just takes a while to respond when you need four years of training at least to be able to be effective and be certified.

所以新的P和最后一个P是物理环境，这主要和数据中心的冷却有关。

So the new P and the last P is physical environment, and this really relates to data center cooling.

我们更仔细地看了这些数据中心建在哪里，以及那里的环境条件。

We've taken a harder look at where these data centers are being built and the ambient conditions associated with that.

超过一半的数据中心建在物理风险较高的地区，要么是极端温度，要么是湿度大，要么是干旱。

More than half of them are built in areas with elevated physical risk, either extreme temperatures, humidity, drought.

这限制了一些选择，特别是对于现代数据中心来说，某些冷却技术可能用不了，这就带来了一个权衡：要么多用水少用电，要么多用电少用水。

And that limits some of the options, especially for modern data centers when it comes to certain of the cooling technologies, and it opens up a trade off of you either consume more water and less power or more power and less water.

在美国这样的地方，我们认为优先考虑的是减少用水，这实际上可能会导致部署一些技术，这些技术会提高电力使用效率，但降低水资源使用效率。

In places like The US, we think the priority is going to be minimizing water use, and that could actually lead to the deployment of technologies that otherwise drive higher power usage effectiveness and lower water usage effectiveness.

不过，这些优先级在世界各地并不都一样。

Now those priorities aren't the same everywhere in the world.

我们在中国的分析师认为，这实际上是由于一些法规的原因。

Our analysts' view in China is that it's actually due to some of the regulations.

他们的优先考虑是尽量减少电力消耗。

Their priority is minimizing power consumption.

所以在那些环境条件迫使这种权衡的地区，这可能会导致更高的用水效率，而在电力方面则较少。

And so in the areas in which the ambient conditions force this trade off, that might otherwise lead to higher water usage effectiveness and less on the power front.

所以这里有很多因素在起作用，这就是我们看待这些限制的方式。

So there's a lot of pieces that are going into this here, and that's how we kinda see the constraints.

Pieces。

Pieces.

你多加了一个P。

You added an extra p there.

我觉得有必要继续这个押韵，但我会克制自己。

I feel compelled to continue the alliteration, but I will I'll stop myself.

Brian，有一点很有趣，Carly提到ERCOT是这种基础设施的一个真正的增长领域，但那里有一些物理条件的限制，这正好体现了电力和供水之间的这种紧张关系。

One thing there, Brian, what's interesting is Carly mentioned ERCOT is a real growth area for this infrastructure, but there are some physical condition limitations that sort of exemplifies this tension between power and water supply.

供应。

Supply.

对吧？

Right?

对吧？

Right?

特别是想想德克萨斯州西部。

And you think about Western Part Of Texas in particular.

没错。

That's right.

我觉得冷却技术还在不断改进，而且永远不要低估工程师的能力。

And I think the cooling technologies are still improving, and it's always hard to bet against the engineers.

当然，当有这么多资金投入到这方面的创新时，我们有理由期待随着时间的推移会有一些进步。

And certainly, when you have so much capital going into the innovation behind this, it's fair to expect that there's going to be some improvements over time.

但没人想要——我知道我们一会儿会谈到这个。

But nobody wants and I know we'll talk about this in a bit.

没人想要停水。

Nobody wants water outages.

没人想要停电。

Nobody wants power outages.

虽然创新力度很大，但仍然存在这些权衡，迫使我们在电力和水资源之间做出选择。

And while there have been strong innovations, there are still these trade offs that are forcing the issue of power versus water.

找到新的水源比找到新的电力来源要贵得多，是的。

It's a lot more expensive Yeah.

这也是为什么至少在美国，我们认为节水将成为优先事项。

To find new sources of water than it is to find new sources of power, and that's in part why, at least in The US, we think water minimization is going to be the priority.

听你们两位说，我们这边有惊人的需求数字，但Brian那边又列出了一长串供应增长的制约因素。

As I'm listening to you both, essentially, we have these astonishing numbers on the demand side, but then this laundry list from Brian about the constraints to supply growth.

那我们是不是正走向供需之间的巨大缺口？

So are we just headed for a very big gap between demand and supply here?

是的。

Yeah.

某些地区确实越来越紧张。

It's certainly getting tighter in certain regions.

我们并不预测全国范围内会出现电力短缺，但有些市场我们认为已经紧张到临界点了。

We don't forecast a nationwide power shortage by any means, but there are certain markets that we think are getting critically tight.

我觉得PJM会排在

I think PJM would be

最前面

at the top

在我们的名单上。

of our list there.

对。

Yeah.

现在的ERCOT，我们不认为很紧张。

ERCOT today, we don't view as very tight.

我们认为随着需求在2028年左右上升，它会变得紧张。

We think it'll get tight as demand ramps in the 2028 time frame.

但我觉得当你看看一些市场，我再提一下受监管的公用事业市场，你会看到很多发电能力正在加入电网。

But I think when you look at some of the markets, and I'll again reference the regulated utility markets, you are seeing a lot of capacity being power generation capacity being added to the grid.

正如Brian提到的，我们认为需要采取全方位的方法来满足所有这些需求。

And as Brian alluded to, we see an all of the above approach required to serve all of this demand.

所以我们预计会看到大量的天然气。

So we expect to see a lot of natural gas.

我们认为，数据中心约60%的需求将由天然气来满足。

About 60% of data center demand, we think, will be met with natural gas.

另外40%我们认为会由可再生能源来满足。

40%, we think, will be met with renewables.

还有少数几个核电站重启项目，也能帮助填补一部分缺口。

There are a few one off nuclear power plant restarts that will help bridge some of that gap as well.

但真的是要全力以赴，尽可能多地让这些发电能力上线。

But it is really all hands on deck try to get as much of this capacity online as possible.

还有一点我想提的是，我们经常讨论电网，以及电网的可用性和容量来承载所有这些负荷。

The one other piece that I would just mention is we talk a lot about the grid and the grid's availability and capacity to house all of this load.

最近有一种叫做“表后”的解决方案被越来越多地提及。

There's been this solution called behind the meter that has come up a lot more lately.

我们认为，在像得克萨斯这样的市场，一些反对声音和物理限制，实际上让“表后”方案更有说服力了。

And we think some of the pushback and the physical constraints that you've seen in markets like Texas have really built a stronger case for behind the meter.

这基本上就是一个现场发电方案，和主电网是隔离的。

And that basically is just an on-site power solution that is islanded from the rest of the power grid.

所以你不用担心能不能接入电网的问题。

So you don't have to worry about, can I get connected to the grid or not?

你可以直接用自己现场的发电厂来给数据中心供电。

You can just serve the data center with your on-site power plant.

我们最近也上调了这方面的预测。

And we recently raised our estimates there as well.

我们预计到2030年，会有大约30吉瓦的现场燃气发电容量，这大概能提供20吉瓦出头的电力。

So we think you'll see about 30 gigawatts of behind the meter gas capacity by 2030, which is about 20 just over 20 gigawatts of power delivery.

这大概占我们到2030年数据中心需求预测的20%。

So that makes up about 20% of our data center demand estimate by 2030.

所以我们认为，不仅电网上的能源组合很重要，而且电网内和电网外的组合也会共同满足这个需求。

So we think it's not only a mix of resource resource on the grid, but it's also a mix of on grid and off grid that's gonna serve this demand.

我觉得有一个细节特别有意思，就是现场发电解决方案明显在快速增长，但它们可能不会一直保持现场发电的模式。

One nuance there I think is fascinating is clearly there's a big growth in behind the meter solutions, but they may not be permanently behind the meter.

对吧？

Right?

推动这一点的部分原因是互联排队的时间特别长。

Part of that's driving this is the extraordinary length of the interconnect queue.

但我认为，对于受监管的公用事业消费者来说，其中一个好处是，正在建设的容量和供应最终可能会重新接入电网，为他们提供更多的韧性或不同的供需平衡。

But I think one of the promises for regulated utility consumers is that capacity and supply is being built that ultimately might be reconnected to the grid and provide a little bit more resilience or different supply demand equation for them.

这样理解对吗？

Is that the right way to think about it?

这绝对是我们所认为的，表后解决方案更像是一种过渡方案，而不是长期解决方案，因为我们一次又一次地从最大的数据中心客户那里听到，他们更倾向于接入电网。

That would absolutely be our view that behind the meter is more of a bridge solution, and it is not a long term solution because we've heard time and time again from the largest data center customers that their preference is to be grid connected.

电网为大型客户，尤其是大型客户，提供了更具成本效益和更可靠的解决方案。

The grid offers a more cost effective and a more reliable solution for especially large customers.

如果我们谈论的是多吉瓦规模的数据中心，长期来看你需要电网作为资源。

If we're talking multi gigawatt scale type of data centers, you need the grid as a resource over time.

我们看到一些项目具备灵活性能同时做到这两点。

We are seeing some projects have the flexibility to do both.

如果一个项目计划在2028年启动，但无法获得电网连接，你可以先采用表后发电，然后再逐步过渡。

If you have a project that's supposed to start in 2028, you can't get your grid connection, you can go behind the meter and then transition over time.

我们大致就是这么考虑的。

That's sort of the way we would think about it.

而且监管机构实际上正在收紧对许多这类连接问题的态度。

And regulators are actually tightening their stance on a lot of these connectivity issues.

那么，Carly，给我们讲讲如今公司面对这个问题是什么情况。

So, Carly, walk us through what that looks like today for companies dealing with this issue.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得，数据中心连接如何处理的不确定性，可能是当今电力公司面临的最重要的问题。

I mean, I think the regulatory uncertainty on how data center connections will be handled is probably the single most important issue facing power utilities companies today.

现在的排队时间很长。

The queues today are lengthy.

你可能要排队等上两三年、五年甚至七年，具体取决于你试图接入美国哪个区域的电网。

You could be sitting in the queue from anywhere two, three, five, seven years depending on which regional grid in The US you're trying to connect to.

这对那些恨不得马上就能投入运营的数据中心客户来说，是个很大的阻碍。

And that is a big deterrent for these data center customers that want to be up and running yesterday.

所以我觉得我们在思考的是，我们的公司正在采取哪些缓解措施来应对这个问题，其中一个就是表后连接。

So I think the way that we're thinking about what are the mitigants that our companies are trying to put into place to address that, One is behind the meter.

而在受监管的市场中，我们看到大家都在大力推动特殊的电价结构，这种结构能提供一个标准化且透明的公式，可以提供给已经获得监管机构批准的数据中心客户，目的就是简化流程，确保大家在时间表、财务要求、客户保护措施等方面都达成一致，以保证即使将来能接入电网，也不会对其他客户造成风险，无论是可靠性问题还是重大的可负担性问题。

And then in the regulated markets, we're seeing a big push towards these special tariff structures that create a one standardized and two transparent formula that you can offer to a data center customer that already has the regulator stamp of approval to just try to streamline the process and make sure that everybody's on the same page about the timelines, the financial requirements, customer protections that are needed to make sure that if and when you can connect to the grid, you're not going to put other customers at risk, whether that is of risk of reliability issues or risk of significant affordability implications.

所以我们认为，在受监管的市场中，主动推行这些特殊电价结构，再加上公用事业公司最近在沟通中承诺量化客户账单节省，或者同意在一段时间内不提高客户费率，这样市场就能在不大幅影响可靠性和可负担性的前提下，合理地容纳数据中心的增长。

And so we think that the proactive movement towards those special tariff structures in the regulated markets coupled with new communications that we're seeing from the utilities around quantifying customer bill savings or also agreeing to not raise their rates to customers for a period of time is a way that the market can still prudently accommodate data center growth without putting at risk reliability or affordability.

这当然是经济理论上的说法，但这和艾莉森之前提到的另一个问题——民粹主义——发生了冲突，也就是社区对建设这些设施的抵制。虽然这些设施有很多韧性和经济上的好处，但越来越难推进了，尤其是在PJM走廊那种人口密集的地方。

That's certainly the economic theory of the case, but this collides with something that Allison referred to earlier, which is this another p, populism, the pushback that is occurring in communities relative to building this supply, which, as you say, has a lot of both resilience and economic benefits, but it's getting increasingly challenging, particularly, I would think in the PJM Corridor, which is pretty densely populated.

那你觉得这种紧张关系会怎么发展？

So how do you see that tension playing out?

这个问题是问你们两位的。

It's to both of you.

对。

Yeah.

我可以先开始。

I can start.

很难看出这个问题能很快解决。

It is hard to see how this goes away quickly.

对。

Mhmm.

因为即使在我们深入探讨潜在解决方案的复杂细节之前，就已经存在一个可以理解的、长期的邻避主义历史。

Because there is just an understandable long history of NIMBYism, even before we delve into the intricate details of the potential solutions.

现在我们大致看到民粹主义反弹的五个不同领域，不管我们想用什么P词或T词来形容。

Now we broadly see five different areas of the populism pushback however we want to, whatever P or T word we wanna use.

首先是会发生停电。

First is there's going to be a power outage.

有解决方案，而且一些政府实际上正在落实这些方案。

There are solutions, and some of the governments are actually putting that into place.

数据中心愿意在电网即将停电时被断开或切断，这正在成为它们获得运营许可的条件。

It's becoming licensed to operate for the data centers to be willing to be disconnected or to be cut off in the event the grid is about to undergo an outage.

所以，可中断性是一个潜在的解决方案。

So interruptibility is a potential solution to that.

第二个是电价飙升。

The second would be power price surges.

Carly提到了照付不议合同，这种合同在某些受监管的地区越来越普遍，而且有些效果；在不受监管的地区，人们正在努力解决这个问题，尤其是在输电和容量方面，但这确实是一个潜在的解决方案。

Carly referenced the take or pay contracts that are increasingly And being some of that works in certain regulated areas, and the unregulated areas are trying to sort through it, especially on kind of the transmission side and the capacity side, but that is a potential solution.

第三个是关于水边的问题。

The third is on the waterfront.

嗯，闭环冷却系统不会持续消耗水，还有干式冷却，无论是空气冷却、冷水机组还是干式冷却，这些都是潜在的解决方案。

Well, closed loop cooling that doesn't consume water on a continuous basis and dry cooling, whether it's air cooling, whether it's chillers or dry cooling, those can be potential solutions.

再说一次，有些方案会带来更大的电力需求，但在减少用水方面，这确实是一个解决方案。

Again, some come with greater power demand, but that's a solution on the water minimization front.

然后是噪音问题，有一些降噪技术可以应用到数据中心，以减少对当地社区的影响。

Then you've got noise, and there are some noise abatement technologies that can be put into the data centers to minimize some of that impact on the local community.

最后一点，可能有点小众，就是数据中心排出的废热，如果冷却系统排放的热量导致某些社区的温度升高，这也是一个问题。

And the last, which is a bit more in kinda niche areas, would be if the heat coming out of the data centers from the cooling rejection actually raises temperatures in certain communities.

有些地方，比如芬兰，就在做废热回收。

And there are areas like Finland that are actually doing waste heat capture.

所以那是一种潜在的技术，可能你需要一个更冷的环境才能真正有市场。

So that's a potential technology, maybe you need a colder environment to actually have a market for that.

我想说的是，确实有一些实际的解决方案可以帮助缓解这五大主要担忧。

I guess the point is that there are actual solutions that can actually help mitigate the five major concerns.

但再说一次，这并不意味着这个问题会消失。

But again, that doesn't mean this is going away.

对。

Yeah.

我只想补充一点，我们的看法是，社区的反对是真实存在的。

The only thing I would add is our view has been that the community pushback is real.

客户们也非常清楚这一点，我觉得他们不太有兴趣把项目强行推进到不欢迎他们的社区。

The customers are also very aware of it, and I don't think there's a big interest from them to force their projects into communities that don't want them.

我们从很多电力和公用事业公司那里得到的消息是，在所有那些反对声音非常响亮、强烈且合理的社区之外，还有其他社区在积极争取数据中心，因为他们想要增加税基。

The message that we've gotten from a lot of our power and utilities companies is that for all of the communities where you're seeing really loud and strong and reasonable pushback, there are other communities that are still actively courting data centers because they want the increase in the tax base.

他们想要建筑工作机会。

They want the construction jobs.

他们想要数据中心客户经常提供的对当地社区基础设施的投资。

They want the investments into the local community infrastructure that the data center customers are often providing.

所以我们认为，这可能会让数据中心的最终选址更加集中在地理上。

And so we think a lot of this is maybe could create some more geographic geographic concentration in where these data centers ultimately locate.

但那些社区在得到之前想要，得到之后却要面对这些问题和麻烦。

But those communities want it until they get it, and then they are living through these issues and problems.

所以我们就看看情况会怎么发展吧。

So we'll see how that evolves.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得你说得很有道理，Brian，事实确实能反驳很多担忧，而且还有技术上的缓解措施。

I think this you make a great case, Brian, for the facts, I think, conspire against many of the concerns, and there are technology mitigants.

但这也是一个公众舆论的问题，而舆论会受到各种不同方式的影响。

And yet this is a matter of popular opinion, which gets shaped in all sorts of different ways.

所以这会非常有意思。

And so it'll be really fascinating.

作为七十年代长大的孩子，我亲眼目睹了核电行业因为民粹和政治反对而受挫。

As a child of the seventies, I watched the nuclear power industry fall afoul of populist and political opposition.

而且我确实觉得，这可能会成为我们建设所需供应能力的一个真正制约因素。

And certainly, it is in my mind that could be a real constraint to our ability to build the necessary supply here.

乔治，你觉得这其中有多少其实只是对人工智能本身的担忧，而不一定是社区觉得‘好吧，我们想全力支持这个’，相比之下，他们支持过其他行业在当地的发展，而且这里面可能也有就业方面的因素。

How much of this, George, do you think could also just be a bit of a trepidation on AI generally and not necessarily communities feeling like, okay, we wanna be all in on that versus other industries in which they've supported development in the community, and maybe there's a job angle to this as well.

我认为，因为它和人工智能相关，所以继承了你说的一些对AI的担忧，这绝对是一个问题。

I think the fact that it's adjacent to AI and therefore inherits some of the trepidation, as you say, about that is absolutely an an issue.

但这影响挺深远的。

But it's pretty profound.

我最近读了一项调查，说相对多数美国人宁愿自家附近有核电站，也不愿意有数据中心。

I read a survey recently that said that a plurality of Americans would prefer to have a nuclear power plant in their neighborhood versus a data center.

虽然核电站确实很安全，事实也证明很安全，但你知道，这确实反映了某种现实。

And while nuclear power plants are quite safe, demonstrably quite safe, you know, that's a real commentary.

所以，再说一次，我觉得在我们今天讨论的所有这些物理限制、供应链、选址、电网连接等问题中，公众情绪这一块可能是我们实现供需平衡时最难爬的一座山。

So, again, I think this is gonna be in some ways of all the things we've discussed here about the physical constraints, the supply chain, the locality, the grid connect, this dimension of popular sentiment might be the steepest hill we have climb in getting to the right balance of supply and demand here.

Carly，我想问问你这个问题，因为我们在这次讨论和之前的讨论中，花了很多时间关注超大规模数据中心的资产负债表、投资能力和投资意愿。

Carly, I wanna ask you about this because we focused a lot in the this discussion and in prior discussions on hyperscaler balance sheets, capacity, appetite to invest.

但同样，对于受监管和不受监管的公用事业公司来说，情况也是如此。

But, also, that's equally true for the regulated utilities and unregulated utilities.

你觉得他们的资金可得性和融资渠道能跟得上吗？那里有什么限制？

Do you see that their capital availability and access will be able to keep up, and what are the constraints there?

他们的情况和超大规模数据中心的世界有点不同。

They're a little bit different than in the hyperscaler world.

对。

Yeah.

所以我会把受监管的公用事业和我们覆盖的独立电力生产商分开来说，他们在这方面做了很多工作。

So I'll split it out into the regulated versus our independent power producers that we cover that are doing a lot of this.

在受监管的那一边，需要的资本量非常大。

On the regulated side, there is significant capital required.

我们看到，我们覆盖的受监管公用事业公司未来五年的资本投资比前五年增长了60%。

We see capital investment for our regulated utilities coverage up 60% in the next five years versus the prior five year period.

但我们仍然看到，相对于信用评级下调的阈值，杠杆率还有一定空间。

But we're still seeing leverage ratios relative to what a credit downgrade kind of threshold would be.

我们仍然看到大约有100个基点的缓冲空间。

We're still seeing about a 100 basis points of cushion there.

我认为部分原因是这些公司一直在积极发行股票来帮助资助这种增长。

And I think part of that is the companies have been proactive about issuing equity to help fund this growth.

我们预计增量资本中大约30%到50%会通过股权融资。

We would expect incremental capital to be funded about 30 to 50% with equity.

所以我们认为他们采取了积极的态度，确保在资产负债表安全的前提下进行这些操作。

And so we think they've taken a proactive stance there to make sure that they're doing this in a balance sheet safe way.

而在独立电力生产商方面，我们实际上看到了信用方面的积极势头。

And then on the independent power producer side, we've actually seen positive momentum on the credit front.

Vistra最近被提升为投资级。

Vistra was recently upgraded to investment grade.

星座能源是投资级的。

Constellation is investment grade.

尽管有些公司在并购上稍微激进了一些，但它们在接下来的十二个月里有明确的路径，可以把杠杆率恢复到净债务与EBITDA之比大约两倍的水平。

And even though some of the companies have stretched a little bit to do m and a, they have clear paths in the next twelve months to get leverage ratios back towards two times net debt to EBITDA or something like that.

所以我们认为它们的资产负债表状况非常健康，

So we think they're in a very healthy place balance sheet wise as

是的。

well.

真是引人入胜。

Fascinating.

那么，最后请你们两位总结一下，你们在关注哪些指标来判断电力这个主题的实际发展情况，以及到底是限制因素占上风，还是需求侧占上风？

So let's just conclude by asking both of you, what are you watching to determine how this power thesis is really playing out and whether the constraints are winning or the demand side is winning?

我觉得一个关键点是，如果我们都同意公众舆论和监管不确定性是最难攀登的山峰，那么就要关注各州出现的数据中心暂停令有多少。

I think one piece would be if we can all agree that the public opinion and the regulatory uncertainty is probably the steepest hill to climb, it would be tracking how many of these data center moratoriums are we seeing pop up across different states.

我不是指地方社区层面的，而是像纽约或我们在得克萨斯州看到的那种真正的暂停令，这可能会导致项目延期或不确定性，让项目开发商犹豫是否要在这个市场运营。我认为这可能是我们最关注的方面，尤其是在我们即将迎来11月选举以及之后可能发生的权力更迭之际。

So I don't mean a local community, a real like a New York or what we've seen in Texas type of moratorium that really could cause some potential project delays or uncertainty from a project developer perspective of do I want to operate in this market, I think that would probably be the piece that we would be most focused on, especially as we're leading into the elections in November and potential changeover post that.

是的，我完全同意这个观点。

Yeah, I would concur absolutely with that.

我觉得这些暂停令可能会有一些细微差别，有些可能是经过深思熟虑的，比如明确我们需要做什么来真正刺激和继续推进发展，而不是说不再支持商业或发展，但有些可能持续时间会更长一些。

I think there's probably going to be a little bit more nuance as to whether some of these moratoriums are really thoughtful, more of a thoughtful take of here's what we need to do to actually stimulate and continue with this development, not necessarily a shift away from being maybe pro business or pro development, or is this something that is actually going to be a little bit longer lasting?

如果我要看一些指标的话，2030年的数据中心容量预测是会向上修正还是向下修正呢？

If I'm looking at metrics to watch, do the does 2,030 data center capacity get revised up or down from here?

就像“梦想之地”里的数据中心一样，只要建好了，自然就会有人来。这个想法应该纳入行业的预测中吗？

Call it the field of dreams data centers, that if you build them, they will come, and should that be in people's forecasts or not in the industry.

然后，如果我要找一个不太常见的指标来观察，那就是超大规模企业签订的核电合同，因为这在未来五年内影响会很小。

And then if I'm looking for an off the beaten path metric to watch, it would be nuclear contracting by hyperscalers, only because that's going to have very little effect over the next five years.

所以这总是一个很好的指标，我们认为它在一定程度上反映了长期趋势，即他们是否真的认为未来会有这样的需求。

And so it's always a nice metric that we think is somewhat indicative of the long term whether they see this as something that they are really going to need the demand for.

另外，从可持续发展的角度来看，也能反映他们对减少二氧化碳排放的看法。

And in addition, from a sustainability lens, what their views are on carbon dioxide emissions mitigation.

Brian、Carly，非常感谢你们再次参加我们的节目。鉴于这一切发展得如此迅速，我相信你们很快会再来更新情况的。

Brian, Carly, thanks so much for joining us again, and I'm sure you'll be back here soon with another update given how fast this is all evolving.