IPO热潮告诉我们什么

IPO市场又热起来了。

The IPO market is booming again.

但这种活跃度上升，到底是市场强劲的信号，还是已经接近顶峰的警告呢？

But is the surge in activity a sign of market strength or a warning that the market is at its peak?

我是艾莉森·纳森，欢迎收看高盛交易所。

I'm Allison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs Exchanges.

今天，我邀请到了高盛研究部的同事辛德，他是美国股票策略首席分析师。

Today, I'm sitting down with my colleague in Goldman Sachs Research, Snider, chief US equities strategist.

本，欢迎再次做客交易所。

Ben, welcome back to Exchanges.

很高兴能和你交流。

Good to be with you.

那咱们直接进入正题吧。

So Ben, let's get into it.

我知道你最近被问了很多关于这个话题的问题。

I know you're getting lots of questions about this topic.

过去几年 IPO 发行一直很冷清，这话题讨论了很久，但最近 IPO 活动明显提速了。

We've obviously seen years of muted issuance, and that was a topic for quite some time, but IPO activity has clearly accelerated.

你能不能给我们具体说说，用数据来说明一下？

So just give us the context, put some numbers on it for us.

我们到底看到了多大的增长？

How much growth have we seen?

现在才刚过了一半的自然年，截至目前，美国已经完成了将近 50 笔 IPO。

We're just about halfway through the calendar year, and so far, we've seen just shy of 50 US IPOs.

这个数字是去年同期的两倍左右，也是自 2021 年以来，同期最多的一年，而 2021 年可是有记录以来 IPO 最活跃的年份之一。

That's about double what we saw at this point last year, and it's the largest number of deals at this point in the calendar year since 2021, which one of the largest IPO years on record.

很明显，市场正在回暖。

So we are definitely seeing a recovery.

但值得注意的是，这些交易的平均规模都非常大，按金额算，我们今年到目前为止已经和 2021 年持平，总融资额大约达到了 1200 亿美元，创下了历史纪录。

What's notable, though, is that the size of the deals on average has been very large, and so in dollar terms, we're already basically tied with 2021 for a record year of about $120,000,000,000 in issuance.

没错。

Right.

所以交易数量大幅增加，单笔交易的规模也明显变大了。

So number of deals is up tremendously as is the size of those deals.

我们看到的这些进展确实很亮眼。

So pretty impressive stuff we're seeing.

是什么推动了这种活跃度呢？

What's driving this activity?

你详细说说背后的原因。

Talk us through that.

首先，正如你提到的，我们正在从长达四年的低迷状态中复苏。

So one, as you noted, is we're recovering from a four year stretch of very muted activity.

2021年的时候，IPO市场曾经迎来过一波热潮。

We had an IPO boom in 2021.

当时估值普遍偏高。

Valuations were elevated.

随后美联储开启了历史上最剧烈的加息周期，导致之后几年里估值逐步修复。

We had the sharpest Fed hiking cycle on record, and that led to a few years of recovering valuations.

所以某种程度上，现在发生的事只是正常的复苏。

And so to some extent, what's happening is just a normal recovery.

但除此之外，还有很多大型公司正在上市，而且市场对资本的需求非常强烈，目的是为人工智能热潮提供资金支持。

But on top of that, we have, of course, some very large companies that are coming to market, and we have this immense desire for capital to help fund the AI boom.

把这些因素综合起来，就解释了为什么交易量会出现如此强劲的增长。

And putting all that together is the reason we're seeing such a strong acceleration in deal volume.

但这些交易其实集中在某些领域，我可不想替你说话，但很明显主要是科技领域，尤其是与人工智能相关的主题。

But it's been concentrated, I don't want to put words in your mouth, but it's been concentrated in certain sectors, obviously technology, the AI related theme.

在这些领域里，情况是不是像我想的这么集中？

Is it as narrow as I think it is in terms of that sector?

就交易数量来看，我们看到的其实相当多元。

In number of deals, we've seen pretty diverse array.

医疗健康领域也有不少交易。

There's been health care deals.

工业领域也出现了不少交易。

There's been deals in the industrial space.

但从金额上看，你说得对，AI确实是主要推动力。

But in dollar terms, you're right to point to AI as the key driver.

如果我们看看AI这个话题所积累的势头，一旦这股势头减弱，你觉得IPO市场会怎样？

And so if we think about the AI narrative and how much momentum it's had, if that momentum cools, what do you think happens to the IPO pipeline?

某种程度上，一个健康的市场环境是IPO活动的前提，我们开发了一个叫IPO晴雨表的工具。

Well, to some extent, a healthy market environment is a requirement for IPO activity, and we've built a tool we call the IPO barometer.

我们认为它能反映整体环境对IPO的友好程度。

We view it as a macro indicator of how conducive the environment is for IPO activity.

它综合了利率、首席执行官信心、股市估值等因素。

That combines things like interest rates, CEO confidence, equity valuations.

目前，所有这些指标都表现得相当不错。

Today, all those signals are pretty healthy.

如果这个晴雨表的长期平均值是100，那现在我们已经到了140，虽然还没达到2021年的峰值，但也处于历史高位。

If the long term average of the barometer is about 100, today we're at 140, which is not as high as we got in 2021, but otherwise at the top of the range.

如果AI领域出现下滑，这些指标很可能也会跟着走弱。

And if AI were to deteriorate, probably a lot of those indicators would deteriorate as well.

所以IPO活动很大程度上取决于宏观环境，但这种活动本身是否也反映了市场的整体情绪呢？

So IPO activity really depends a lot on the macro conditions, the backdrop, but does the activity itself share anything in particular about sentiment in the market?

这确实表明了积极的情绪，尤其是在企业层面，大家觉得业务前景不错，也愿意通过IPO来筹集资金。

It's definitely an indication of positive sentiment, both on the corporate side, the sense that business activity is good and there's a desire to use the capital that will be raised through IPOs.

至于投资者情绪，从股市估值上就能看出来，投资者真正担心的是：这是否意味着市场正陷入一种狂热状态，预示着泡沫的顶峰？

And in terms of investor sentiment, which you see broadly in equity valuations, the real concern from investors is, is this indicative of a kind of euphoric environment that marks the peak of bubbles?

我们的客户也都记得，比如上世纪90年代末，或者我之前提到的2021年，IPO活动也曾出现过急剧攀升。

It's not lost on clients that we also saw a very sharp increase in IPO activity, for example, in the late 1990s, or as I mentioned earlier, in 2021.

那你觉得现在和过去有很多相似之处，还是说也有需要特别关注的不同点？

So do you see a lot of similarities, or are there differences that we should be focusing on as well?

确实有一些相似的地方。

There's some similarities.

股市估值现在非常高，虽然还没达到2021年或2000年的水平，但也已经处在高位了。

Equity valuations are very high, not quite as high as in 2021 or 2000, but they're very high.

投资者信心明显高涨，再加上技术变革的背景，还有许多新兴领域等着投资。

Investor confidence is clearly elevated, and of course, there's the backdrop of technological change and potential new area to invest in.

这些就是相似之处。

Those are the similarities.

我觉得关键的不同点，我们之前其实稍微提到过。

I think the key contrast is something we alluded to a little earlier.

如果看过去二十五年的平均数，每年大约有一百起交易。

If you look at the twenty five year average, there's about a 100 deals per year.

所以我们现在的水平跟这个平均数很接近。

So we're tracking pretty close to that average.

2021年的时候，IPO数量超过了两百五十起。

In 2021, there were over 250 IPOs.

1999年更是接近四百起。

In 1999, almost 400.

虽然融资总额确实很高，活动也在加速，但在我看来，跟当年那种狂热情绪相比，我们还差得远。

So although the dollar volume is is quite elevated, although we're seeing an acceleration in activity, to me, it still looks like we're a far cry from that level of euphoric sentiment that we saw in those episodes.

对。

Right.

明白了。

Okay.

你这话听起来让人安心不少。

So that's a comforting message you're giving us.

我们谈到这种发行时，显然背景是整体股市非常强劲。

When we think about this issuance, it's obviously happening against a backdrop of a very strong equity market broadly.

当然中间有些波动，但主要的美国股市指数基本都处在或接近历史高点。

Mean, I there's been some volatility, but we're basically at or very close to all time highs in the major US equity indices.

那么，额外的股票供应会对整个股市的强势造成什么影响？

So what does the additional supply of shares mean for that overall strength in the equity market?

这可能是我们在和投资者交流时听到的最普遍的担忧，不管是机构投资者还是企业客户。

This is probably the biggest concern we hear in our conversations with investors, whether it's institutional investors, corporates.

说真的，挺让人意外的。

It's amazing, actually.

比起人工智能，也比现在的宏观环境更让人担心，投资者最怕的就是供应量会压垮市场。

More than AI, more than the macro environment today, this is the fear that investors have that that supply is gonna overwhelm the market.

我觉得有几点原因让我们不必担心。

I think there are a few reasons not to worry.

首先，正如我之前提到的，交易的数量其实并不算多，虽然融资总额确实很大。

First, as I mentioned earlier, the number of deals is really not exceptional, although the magnitude of dollar issuance is quite large.

其次，市场本身是会随着时间不断扩大的。

Second is, of course, markets get larger over time.

尽管我们预计今年的融资总额会创纪录，达到约7000亿美元，包括IPO和增发。

Although we're forecasting a record magnitude of issuance, about $700,000,000,000 this year if you combine IPOs and follow ons.

但这只占整个股市规模的1%左右。

That scales to just about 1% of the equity market.

实际上，这个比例还低于长期平均水平。

That's actually lower than the long term average.

和2015到2019年期间的水平差不多。

It's roughly in line with the environment from 2015 to 2019.

第三个原因是，企业对股票的需求依然很强劲。

And then the third reason is that corporate demand is still quite elevated.

如果你看看股票回购，今年它们的总额将超过一万亿美元，这意味着，还没算上散户、对冲基金或共同基金，企业对股票的需求就已经超过供给了。

If you look at buybacks, they're going to exceed a trillion dollars this year, which means even before we think about retail investors or hedge funds or mutual funds, corporate demand for shares is going to outweigh corporate supply of shares.

你提到的这一点确实很有意思。

That's actually a very interesting point you make.

很多人在讨论这个话题时，往往忽略了需求端这一面。

Mean, people don't think about that demand side as much in this context.

不过，你觉得转折点会来吗？

But do you see an inflection point coming though?

迟早会不会出现需求低于供给的情况？

At some point, will you see that tip and demand less than supply?

说实话，到2027年，这个数字计算起来就会变得困难多了。

So admittedly, the math does get harder in 2027.

在我们看来，今年需求之所以能超过供给，部分原因是很多IPO公司上市时流通股比例都很小。

Part of the reason that in our view, the demand will outweigh the supply this year is that a lot of these IPOs are coming public with relatively small floats.

它们刚上市时发行的股份占公司总股本的比例其实并不高。

They're issuing relatively small shares of the company when they first launch.

但随着时间推移，会有更多股票进入市场，投资者的禁售期陆续到期，这意味着到了2027年及以后，供应量可能会大幅增加。

But over time, more shares will come to market, investor lockups will expire, and that suggests that potentially there will be a lot more supply as we look into 2027 and beyond.

当然，从现在到那时之间还有很多不确定性，但前景确实变得更具挑战性。

And of course, there are a lot of uncertainties between here and there, but it does become a more challenging outlook.

既然这样，谈谈你对今年晚些时候到2027年美国股市整体走势的看法吧。

So given that, talk to us about the broader outlook you have for later this year and into 2027 for The US equity market.

光是这个话题我们就够聊满一整期播客了，但中期内的展望和最近的情况差不多：企业盈利强劲增长，持续推动市场上行。

We could spend a whole podcast talking about this, but the medium term outlook is similar to what we've seen recently, which is a backdrop of very healthy earnings growth powering the market higher.

举个数据，标普500指数今年迄今已经上涨了大约10%。

To give you some numbers, the S and P 500 is up about 10% year to date.

同一时期，未来盈利预期上涨了约17%。

Over that same period, forward earnings are up about 17%.

这意味着，如今的市盈率反而比年初还低。

That means PE multiples are actually lower today than they were at the start of the year.

推动市场的动力，完全来自盈利的增长。

Earnings have done all of the driving.

我们预计这种情况还会持续。

And our expectation is that will continue.

当然，正如我们讨论过的，未来存在很多不确定性——不仅仅是IPO，还有地缘政治和人工智能。所以我认为市场将继续波动，但我们也相信牛市趋势仍会延续。

Of course, as we discussed, there are a lot of uncertainties, not just IPOs, geopolitics, AI, so I do think we'll see continued volatility in the market, but we also think the bull trend should continue.

我们最近听到很多关于股市波动的说法，但当我看我的屏幕时，指数基本都接近历史高点。

We are hearing a lot about equity volatility, but again, when I look at my screen, we're mostly near record highs.

所以，今天的股市真的算波动剧烈吗？

So is it a volatile equity market today, really?

你提到的这个矛盾点很有意思——如果看指数水平，市场其实并没有那么动荡。

You're getting at a really interesting disconnect, which is if you look at the index level, the market has not been that volatile.

但实际情况是，个股层面的波动性极高，同时相关性极低，也就是各种股票各自朝不同方向移动。

But what's happened is the combination of extremely high volatility at the individual stock level and very low correlations, that is the various stocks moving in different directions.

因此，指数看起来还算平稳，但个股却波动剧烈。

And so that means the index has not been that erratic, but stocks have been.

再看投资者的杠杆水平，无论是保证金债务、对冲基金的杠杆，还是杠杆ETF资产的增长，这些都表明未来市场波动可能会加剧。

And when you look at investor leverage, whether it's margin debt, hedge fund leverage, or the increase in assets of leveraged ETFs, all of that contributes to the view that we're gonna see more volatility going forward.

有意思。

Interesting.

所以你对盈利前景挺乐观的，但市场确实会有波动。

So you have a pretty optimistic outlook for earnings, but there's gonna be volatility.

你现在给投资者的建议是什么？

What are you telling investors right now?

对投资者的建议要看投资期限。

The message to investors depends on the investment horizon.

对吧？

Right?

对冲基金这类短线交易者，波动性对他们来说比长期投资者重要得多。

For the hedge funds who are trying to trade the short term, volatility becomes much more important than, for example, a long term investor.

但我对绝大多数人的建议都是关注盈利，因为这才是推动市场的根本动力。

But my message to almost everyone is to keep an eye on earnings and really highlight that that is the strength that's driving the market.

没错。

Right.

只要我们预期的经济增长持续下去，盈利就能保持稳定，但正如你所说，存在很多不确定性。

And as long as the economic growth that we expect continues, we would expect earnings to hold up, but there's a lot of uncertainty, as you say.

没错。

That's right.

非常感谢你参与我们的对话，本。

Thanks so much for joining us, Ben.

谢谢。

Thank you.

本节目《高盛对话》录制于2026年6月22日星期一。

This episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges was recorded on Monday, 06/22/2026.

我是艾莉森·纳撒恩。

I'm Alison Nathan.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

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