中国出口正在获得最大市场份额的地区

美中贸易关系是最受关注的焦点。

The US China trade relationship gets most of the attention.

但这是否就是最具影响力的竞争发生地呢？

But is that where the most consequential competition is taking place?

这对企业和投资者又意味着什么？

And what does that mean for companies and investors?

我是艾莉森·内森，这里是高盛交易所。

I'm Alison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs Exchanges.

我今天的嘉宾是陈翠娜，高盛大中华区股票研究联席主管，她研究了11个行业和40家中国及全球公司，以了解中国企业在哪些领域正在抢占市场份额，以及这对竞争对手和投资者意味着什么。

My guest today, Trina Chen, co head of Greater China Equity Research at Goldman Sachs, has studied 11 secondtors and 40 Chinese and global companies to see where Chinese firms are gaining ground and what that means for competitors and investors.

翠娜，欢迎来到节目。

Trina, welcome to the program.

谢谢邀请。

Thank you for having me.

翠娜，正如我刚才所说，关于中国企业走向全球的讨论大多集中在中美关系上，但你实际上做了大量工作，绘制了中国企业在全球范围内抢占市场份额的分布图。

So, Trina, as I just said, so much of the conversation around Chinese companies going global centers on The US China relationship, but you actually did a lot of work and mapped out where Chinese companies are gaining share worldwide.

那整体情况是什么样的？

What did the picture look like?

首先，跟我们说说你做的分析吧。

And first, tell us a little bit about the analysis you did.

我们实际上研究了超过10个行业，覆盖了各种不同的领域。

We actually looked through over 10 secondtors across all the different industries.

这些行业包括一些非常传统的，比如白色家电、冰箱和洗衣机，也可能涉及电动汽车。

So these are very traditional ones, such as white goods, fridge and washer, and they could be EV.

然后一直延伸到一些新兴行业，比如手术机器人、电力设备，甚至服务行业，比如快递服务。

And all the way, it goes to some of the newer sectors, such as surgical robots, power equipment, to even services sectors such as express services.

我们发现，在市场份额增长方面，有一个非常清晰且一致的趋势。

And what we found was a pretty clear, consistent picture in share gaining.

但如果你仔细看过去五到十年这些产品的出口细节，会发现大约有一半的出口流向了新兴市场。

But if you look in the details of all these products in the past five to ten years about half of them actually the export went to emerging markets.

在这些市场里，市场份额的增长和收入的增长都非常显著，我们看到的总体收入增长可能是当地市场自然增长的15倍左右。

And in these markets the share gain and the revenue growth has been very tremendous and we're looking at aggregated revenue growth is probably 15 times of the local market organic growth.

这就是为什么如今在新兴市场中，中国产品的市场份额可能已经达到了24%。

And this is where market share today over the Chinese product in emerging market has probably reached 24%.

我们在美国和欧洲也看到了非常相似的趋势，但可能相对温和，这些公司在除中国以外的市场实现了10%到16%的市场份额。

And we see very similar trend in US and Europe but maybe relative modest and we're looking at 10 to 16% market share achieved in the ex China market by these companies.

所以中国出口在各地都在抢占市场份额，但最显著的是在新兴市场。

So market share is gaining everywhere for Chinese exports, but most strikingly in the emerging markets.

当我们想到中国出口的这种增长时，我们通常认为这意味着价格下降。

When we think about this growth in Chinese exports, we generally think that means falling prices.

你看到的数据真的支持这一点吗？

Does the data that you're looking at actually back that up?

这就是我认为我们在研究中遇到的最大惊喜之一，当我们看图表时，我们会说，哇，这看起来不一样。

That's where I think we got one of the biggest surprise in the study is when we look at the chart, we say, wow, this looks different.

直觉上，我想我们都会把中国产品与价格通缩、降价联系在一起。

Intuitively, I think we would be all associated with the Chinese product with price deflation, price cut.

但实际上，图表真正显示的是，在进入市场初期，中国产品通常以比当地现有同行价格平均低30%的折扣进入市场。

But in reality, what the chart actually shows you, at the beginning of the entry, Chinese products typically come to a market with 30% on average discount to the incumbent local peers' price.

但在接下来的几年里，你会发现价格在初次进入市场后的很多年里实际上是在上涨的。

But in the subsequent years, you actually see price rise over the many years post the initial entry.

价格上涨可能是由于成本通胀的转嫁。

The rise of price could be driven by pass on the cost inflation.

也可能是周期性因素。

It could be cyclical factors.

但也有更好的产品和更好的价格。

But there's also better product, better prices.

所以如果你看中国产品与市场上竞争对手的相对价格，折扣通常在一段时间内保持相当稳定。

So if you look at the relative price between Chinese price and their competitor in this market, the discount usually stays quite stable over the period of time.

比如电动汽车，我想大家都在谈论电动汽车，但如果你比较同一型号的中国电动汽车与一些全球品牌，折扣大约在20%，而且过去三四年一直很稳定。

And for example, EV, I think everyone talk about EV, but if you compare same model, Chinese EV versus global, some of the brand names, The discount is around 20% and it's been very stable in the past three to four years.

有一个例外我总是想提，那就是RVC，也就是你在家用的扫地机器人。

There is one exception I always want to mention that is RVC, which is robotic vacuum cleaner you use at home.

这个产品进入美国市场时，折扣是40%。

And this product, when it comes to The US market, came at 40 percent discount.

而今天，它反而贵了60%。

And today, it's 60% premium.

价格涨得比竞争对手快得多，因为它不断创新，功能齐全。

Price tripled way faster than its competitor because it keep innovating, have all the different functions.

你去亚马逊看看，就能发现它有多厉害，但这也是创新让价格保持高位的例子。

If you go to Amazon, you could actually see how impressive it could be, but that's one example of innovation also keeps price higher.

所以我觉得可以说，中国产品并不一定在进入市场后的多年里给价格带来额外压力。

So I think it's fair to say the answer of the Chinese product does not necessarily create additional pricing pressure for the many years post the initial entry.

但有一个关键点。

But there is a point.

随着竞争持续，到某个阶段，我们会开始看到公司收入承压，出现收入收缩或增长放缓。

As competition carries on, at certain point, we will start to see revenues start coming of companies coming under stress and contraction of revenue or deceleration of growth.

那时我们就会看到降价。

That's where we start to see price cut.

这些降价通常是由那些市场份额流失、在艰难竞争环境中试图保住份额的公司发起的。

And these price cut typically are initiated by companies who has been losing market share and trying to defend their market share in a very challenging situation and competition.

所以，如果你说的中国出口因为便宜而获得市场份额，这个看法一开始是对的，但随着时间的推移，其实越来越不准确。

So the perception that Chinese exports are gaining market share because they're cheaper, if I understand what you're saying correctly, is true at first, but actually less true over time.

还有，如果我理解得没错的话，产品质量最终会缩小中国出口和本地产品之间的价格差距。

And again, if I heard you correctly, product quality ultimately leads a closing of the gap between the price of the Chinese export and the local product.

对吗？

Is that right?

对。

That's correct.

我不能说所有产品都这样，但历史上确实有不少产品是这么走过来的。

I wouldn't say that's happened to all the products, but we definitely see a number of products present themselves in the history that way.

那我们再想想那些跟中国出口竞争的老牌企业。

And so then we think about the incumbents that are competing against these Chinese exports.

就像你刚才提到的，有些企业在保住市场份额方面做得比别人好。

Some of them have done a better job than others about hanging on to market share, as you just alluded to.

是什么让一些老牌企业更有竞争力、更能守住份额，而另一些却做不到呢？

What makes incumbents more competitive and able to do that, and what makes some of them less able to do it?

是的。

Yes.

我们认为产品的性质很重要。

We think the product nature matters.

如果你看一个更模块化、面向消费者或高增长的产品，那么你往往会看到中国公司非常快速地获得市场份额。

If you look at a product that is more modular, b to c, or high growth, then you tend to see very fast market share gain by Chinese companies.

但另一方面，如果你看一个更互联、面向企业、更成熟的产品，那么你往往会看到，实际上需要更长的时间才能获得市场份额，或者它们对本地现有企业来说往往更难对付。

But on the other hand, if you look at product that is more interconnected, B2B, more mature, and you tend to see that it takes a lot longer actually to gain market share or they tend to be more formidable for the local incumbents.

现在，我们认为这些产品或者细分市场存在竞争性进入壁垒，它必须建立在非常复杂的互联网络上，例如工业机器人的全生命周期服务和维护，你也可能有这些高度复杂且固定成本密集的全球网络，用于快递服务，比如TDI，而且本地线下渠道也很重要。

Now entrenched with this we think it's a competitive mode entry barrier for these products or segment and it has to build on a very complex interconnected network for example service and maintenance for full lifecycle for industrial robots and you could also have these highly complex and the fixed cost intensive global network for express service such as TDI and local offline channel matters.

这也非常有价值。

And that's also very valuable.

最重要的是，长期的良好记录，你可以建立客户对产品的信任和信念。

And the most important, a long term track record where you could build customer trust and belief in your products.

我认为这些是需要很长时间才能建立起来的东西。

I think these are the things takes a very long time to build.

所以，我觉得要竞争起来难度大得多。

Therefore, I think it takes a lot more to compete.

如果考虑到这些因素，有没有哪些特定的地区、行业或领域特别容易受到中国竞争加剧的影响？

If you think about those factors, are there particular regions or sectors or industries that are especially vulnerable to rising Chinese competition?

首先想到的是工业领域，因为过去几年中国公司在这方面积累了很多竞争优势。

So the first thing come to mind is industrial segment because this is where Chinese company has built a lot of competitive strengths over the past years.

在这个领域里，你可以看到一些先行者，也就是那些已经在竞争中建立优势并且市场份额持续增长的公司或行业。

So within that you could see the early achievers, companies or sectors who already have built strengths in competition and on track with continued market share gain.

我会说这些包括白色家电、电动汽车，但也要注意那些中国新竞争正在崛起的领域，我们称之为“后发商业”。

And I would say these are white goods, electric vehicles, but also keeping in mind of the sectors that new competition from China rising in the sectors what we called late commerce.

比如，自动驾驶出租车、医疗设备如手术机器人。

And these are, for example, robotaxi, medical equipment such as surgical robot.

还有电力设备中的变压器，这些都是例子。

You could also see power equipment in transformer, and these are all examples.

另外还有一个我可能归类为工业之外的领域，那就是服务业，比如电商的监控。此外，我们的分析师今年一直在写一个关于药物发现的重大主题，一些与AI相关的领域也值得关注。

Now there is also another segment that I would probably categorize as outside industrial that is servicing and I would say worse monitoring for example e commerce And on top of that, our analyst has been writing this year a big theme in terms of drug discovery, some of the AI related sector also worth looking into.

你其实是用颠覆性创新这个视角来描述这种扩张的。

And you actually describe some of this expansion through really this lens of disruptive innovation.

我觉得你在我们对话中已经稍微提到了一点，但对你来说这到底意味着什么，为什么效果这么好？

I think you've touched on that a little bit already in our conversation, but what does that really mean to you, and why is that working so well?

当我们第一次开始把克里斯滕森教授在九十年代提出的这个理论与中国的竞争走向全球的案例进行对照时，我感到非常惊讶。

I was quite amazed when we first started to match this theory developed by Professor Christensen in the nineties and with the Chinese competition coming to go global cases.

这完全是理论所描述的经典案例。

And it's a classic case what the theory is describing about.

但我觉得有两个方面。

But there's, I think, two aspect.

一个是对中国企业来说。

One is for Chinese companies.

你会好奇，为什么它们最初进入这个市场时会成功。

So you wonder why do they succeed when they come into this market initially.

事实正如理论所描述的，许多中国企业，不是全部，但很多，它们进入的是现有巨头服务不足的市场细分领域。

The fact is as described in this theory, Chinese company, many of them, not all, many of them, they enter the market in the segment that is underserved by established incumbents.

这些基本上也是现有企业资源分配相对较少的地方，因为这不是他们的重点。

And these are basically places also the allocation of resources of incumbents has been also relatively lean because this is not their focus.

所以你实际上是在一个不对称的环境中竞争，因此成功的几率很高。

So you essentially are competing in asymmetrical environment and therefore you have high odds of success.

这正好完美地符合这个理论的描述。

So that actually perfectly described by this theory.

但我发现，这个理论的另一面可能对面临中国竞争的大型全球企业更有帮助。

But I saw that the other side of this theory would service is probably even more to the large established global companies who's facing the Chinese competition.

在我们研究不同产品和行业时，经常听到一些不屑一顾的声音。

Quite often when we were doing the study looking at different products and sectors, we hear dismissive.

也听到一些退缩的声音。

We hear retreat.

让他们去占领大宗商品市场吧。

Let them have the commodity market.

我们还是专注于最赚钱的业务、最好的客户和最好的市场。

Let us focus on what's most profitable, our best customer and our best market.

这在逻辑上是正确的。

This is logically right.

然而，正如理论中所强调的，这也可能非常具有欺骗性，并延迟你对竞争的战略回应。

However, as highlighted in the theory, it also can be very deceptive and delay your strategic response to the competition.

所以换句话说，如果你看到公司放弃边缘市场或低端市场，他们实际上是把滩头阵地让给了竞争对手，让他们有机会从那里向上层市场推进。

So in other words if you see companies seed the peripheral market or the low end segment they essentially are give the beachhead to the competitors competition, and let them have the opportunity to move forward from there to the upper market.

所以你增加了未来的风险。

So you increase the risk in the future.

所以这既取决于中国公司所做的决策和追求的机会，也取决于现有企业的回应。

So it's a function of both the decisions and the opportunities the Chinese companies are pursuing and the response of the incumbents themselves.

真是令人着迷。

Fascinating.

那么，当你退一步思考正在发生的这种扩张时，市场在多大程度上已经对此进行了定价？

So when you take a step back and you think about this expansion that's occurring, how much of this is actually priced into markets?

我想说，我们观察了所有市值对市场份额和收入变化的反应。

I would say we look at all the market cap responses to the changing market share, the revenue.

首先，我觉得很明显的一点是，市场对那些正在失去市场份额的公司，从来没有犹豫过。

The first, I think, observation was very clear that market never hesitated at all for companies who was in the process of losing their market shares.

而且，惩罚可以说是非常残酷的。

And the penalties, actually I would describe it as ruthless.

市场份额损失10%到15%，或者营收收缩这么多，市值可能会缩水50%，甚至70%、80%。

For 10 to 15% market share loss or top line contraction, the market cap could shrink by 50%, 70, 80%.

所以，市盈率和其他指标都会一起下降。

So multiples earnings all come together.

不过，另一方面，也很有意思。

However, on the other side, it's also very interesting.

市场对于中国公司这种宏大的全球化雄心，给信用的时候非常谨慎。

Market is very skeptical in giving credit to Chinese companies this great go global ambition.

如果你看估值，比如用市销率来算，按照今天的估值去对应2035年这些公司目标销售额，你会发现很多只有一倍甚至不到一倍，这实际上说明市场对这些扩张是有担忧的，或者说持怀疑态度。

So if you look at the valuation price to sales as today's valuation on say 2035 how much sales these companies are targeted for in today's value you would tend to see a lot of one times even less than one times which actually tells you the market is worried about these expansions or skeptical about these expansions.

那这难道不是市场对这些公司机会的看法的一种反映吗？

Is that just though a reflection of the market's view of the opportunities of these companies?

还是说这也跟投资者结构有关？

Or does it also relate to the investor base?

如果从全球视角来看，谁在持有中国公司的股票？

Who is owning Chinese companies if we put a global lens on that?

我觉得市场想要看到的是能带来盈利的扩张。

I think market wants to look for profitable expansions.

而且我得说，在你之前的问题里，关于这些扩张对价格有多大影响，市场上确实有一种很强的说法。

And I have to say there is a very strong narrative out there in your earlier question in terms of how much price impact these expansion are.

你只是在抢市场份额，还是在赚利润？

Are you just gaining market share or are you gaining profit?

你是不是变得更赚钱了？

Are you being more profitable?

我觉得我们确实看到了一些成功的例子，但市场可能想看到更多证据，才能相信这种扩张不会最终演变成内卷，价格因为竞争而被压垮。

I think that we could see some of the successful examples but the market probably wanted to see more to be convinced that going forward this expansion does not end up with something similar to involution where the price actually gets killed because of competition.

另外我还想说，现在地缘政治的不确定性、市场准入问题、贸易摩擦，这些都是因素。

The other things I would say is today's uncertainty in geopolitics, the market access, the trade frictions.

关于这项工作，我收到最多的问题就是，我们该怎么处理天合光能？

And that's the question I get the most on this work is what do we do with Trina?

我们如何看待这些贸易谈判和市场准入限制，又该如何应对？

How do we think about these trade discussions and access restrictions and how do we work around it?

这确实很难，因为这不是我们能控制的事情。

And it's very difficult because it's not something in our control.

我倾向于认为，至少首先，我把这些限制或障碍看作是一种减速带。

And I tend to think that at least number one I view these restrictions or hurdles as more of a speed bump.

它们可能会改变轨迹，但不会改变长期的结果，因为竞争对手就在这里。

So they could change trajectory but they don't change the outcome in the long run because the competitor is here.

话虽如此，从实际角度来看，你必须避开，比如，与许多国家的证券相关的产品。

Having said that, from practical perspective, you have to avoid, for example, product that's related to securities of a lot of countries.

比如，如果你看看我们的电力设备分析师，她会非常怀疑中国的变压器会进入美国和欧洲的主要电网，因为安全原因。

For example, if you think about our power equipment analyst, she would be very skeptical that Chinese transformer would ever go to the main grid of power grid in US and Europe for security reason.

你也可以看看那些对经济贡献非常大的行业，比如汽车，随着你市场份额的增长，往往会引发不少摩擦。

You could also look at the sectors where the contribution to the economy is very significant, such as auto, that tends to create quite a lot of friction as you gain market share.

但另一方面，看看那些正在拓展出口市场的公司。

But on the other hand, look at a company who's expanding in export market.

如果它们市场地位非常强，而且没有替代品，那在这种环境下会表现得很好，因为这种强大的竞争优势很可能足以应对所有这些不确定性。

If they have a very strong market position and there is no substitution, that would work very well in this environment because that's the formidable competitive strengths probably to potentially overcome to all these uncertainties.

所以，公司本身以及它们基于产品和策略的增长机会是重要的。

So there is the company themselves and their growth opportunities based on their products and their strategies.

但当然，正如你刚才所说的，投资者还需要从更宏观的角度，战略性地选择他们关注的行业。

But then, of course, as you just articulated, there is this broader lens that investors need to be strategic about the sectors they're focused on.

对。

Correct.

再次感谢Trina今天分享这些见解。

Thanks again, Trina, for sharing those insights with us.

我学到了很多。

I've learned a lot.

能来这里真是太好了。

Well, it's a great pleasure to be here.

谢谢你邀请我，艾莉森。

Thank you for having me, Allison.

本期高盛交易所节目录制于2026年10月8日，星期四。

This episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges was recorded on Thursday, 10/08/2026.

如果你喜欢这期节目，我们希望你能在Apple Podcasts、Spotify或任何你收听播客的平台订阅，并给我们留下评分和评论。

If you enjoyed the show, we hope you'll subscribe to Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and leave us a rating and comment.

我是艾莉森·内森。

I'm Allison Nathan.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

本节目所表达的观点和意见仅代表发布日期当天的立场，如有变更，恕不另行通知，且不一定反映高盛或其关联机构的机构观点。

The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication subject to change without notice and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates.

所提供的材料仅供参考，不构成投资建议、高盛任何实体采取任何特定行动的推荐，也不构成购买或出售任何证券或金融产品的要约或招揽。

The material provided is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products.

本材料可能包含前瞻性陈述。

This material may contain forward looking statements.

过去的业绩不代表未来的结果。

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

高盛及其关联公司对本文所含陈述或信息的准确性或完整性不作任何明示或暗示的陈述或保证，并且不对因依赖此类信息而造成的任何损失承担责任。

Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties expressed or implied as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose.

文中提到的第三方组织名称均为其所属公司的财产，此处仅用于信息和识别目的，不暗示这些公司与高盛之间存在任何所有权或许可关系。

Each name of a third party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only, and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.

提供文字记录仅为方便起见，可能与原始视频或音频内容有所不同。

A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content.

未经高盛明确书面同意，任何接收者不得复制、分发、出版或转载本材料的全部或部分内容，也不得向任何其他人披露。

This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs.

如文中提及发行人，相关研究适用的披露信息可通过您的高盛代表或访问 www.gs.com/research/hedge.html 获取。

Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

版权所有 2026。

Copyright 2026.

高盛。

Goldman Sachs.

版权所有。

All rights reserved.