为何在供应恢复的情况下，油价仍在飙升

中东的石油供应已经大幅回升，但价格依然高企，而且还在上涨。

Oil flows from The Middle East have rebounded sharply, but prices remain high and rising.

那么，是什么让市场如此紧张呢？

So what's keeping the market on edge?

我是艾莉森·内森，这里是高盛播客。

I'm Allison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs Exchanges.

今天和我一起的是高盛全球大宗商品研究联席主管兼石油研究主管丹·斯特鲁伊文。

Joining me is Daan Struyven, co head of Global Commodities Research and head of Oil Research at Goldman Sachs.

丹，再次感谢你的参与。

Dan, thanks for joining us again.

你已经多次来到节目，但最近石油话题确实很热。

You've been on the show a lot, but look, oil has been very topical.

所以再次感谢你的到来。

So thanks for joining us again.

谢谢。

Thanks.

就像我在开头提到的，从中东流出的原油已经大幅回升。

As I mentioned at the start, crude oil flows from The Middle East have substantially rebounded.

如果我没记错的话，现在它们已经达到或至少接近2025年的平均水平了。

If I'm not mistaken, they are at or at least close to twenty twenty five averages at this point.

但我看着我的屏幕。

But I'm looking at my screen.

油价最近几天又暴涨，再次回到了三位数的高位。

Oil prices have surged in recent days, again, deep into triple digits.

那是什么推动了这波价格变动呢？

So what's driving that price move?

是的。

Yes.

布伦特原油价格已经大幅上涨，现在大约每桶112美元，因为中东紧张局势加剧，供应下行风险上升，导致买家在实物市场和金融市场上都抬高购买价格。

So Brent crude oil prices have risen sharply to now around $112 per barrel because growing tensions in The Middle East and growing downside risk to supply are leading buyers to bid up barrels, both in the physical market and also on the financial side.

像炼油厂这样的实物买家看到供应中断的风险越来越大，因为中东的海运袭击加剧，以及胡塞武装对基础设施进行的一些打击。

Physical buyers such as refiners are seeing growing downside risk to supply because of an intensification of shipping attacks in The Middle East and because of some strikes on infrastructure by the Houthis.

而且由于库存很低，炼油商和实物买家都在尽量趁现在还能买到货的时候囤货，因为他们认为供应很可能会大幅下降。

And because inventories are low, refiners, physical buyers, are trying to get their hands on barrels while they are available because they see a high probability of a sharp drop in supply.

在金融方面，由于债券和股票价格对油价异常敏感，投资者也在积极买入，以对冲其投资组合免受能源价格上涨的影响。

And on the financial side, because bonds and equity prices are unusually sensitive to oil prices, there's also a significant bid from investors to hedge their portfolios against energy price upside.

有意思。

Interesting.

所以，在某种程度上，我们现在看到的是原油消费者的预防性购买，这让我想到，从另一方面来看，这可能会对价格产生影响。

So in some ways, what we're seeing here is precautionary buying by the consumers of crude oil, which makes me think that on the other side of it, that could have price implications.

考虑到目前价格处于如此高的水平，而且现在技术面上在增加库存，您认为接下来的价格风险会怎样？风险偏向哪一方？

When you think about price risk from here, given these very high levels today, and that they're now technically building inventory, what are you expecting and where are the risks skewed?

在价格大幅上涨之后，我们认为市场价格的风险越来越趋于对称。

So following the sharp rise in prices, we see the risk to market prices as increasingly symmetrical.

尽管我们基准预测的风险——即布伦特原油今年年底为90美元，2027年平均为80美元——但很明显，我们的预测风险偏向上行。

Although the risks to our base case price forecast, which sees Brent at the end of this year at 90 and in 2027 annual average at 80, the risks to our forecasts are clearly skewed to the upside.

主要的上行风险是航运袭击加剧，这可能导致出口大幅下降。

The key upside risks are an intensification of shipping attacks that could lead to a sharp draw in exports.

第二，石油基础设施受损，或者风险溢价更加顽固。

Second, damage to oil infrastructure or perhaps a stickier risk premium.

同时，下行风险也很大，尤其是我们目前估计布伦特原油每桶约有27美元的风险溢价可能下降。

Now there's also significant downside risks, especially a potential drop in the risk premium that we estimate at roughly $27 per barrel for Brent at the moment.

但是，要让风险溢价迅速消退，你可能需要看到一个市场参与者认为可持续的外交解决方案。

But for the risk premium to come off quickly, you would probably need to see a diplomatic solution that market participants see as sustainable.

那么，如果中期选举后没有出现重大升级，我们认为可以合理假设风险溢价会有所回落。

Now, if we don't get significant escalation after the midterms, think it's reasonable to assume that the risk premium does moderate somewhat.

再次，为了明确起见，你刚才说风险溢价是每桶27美元。

And again, just to be perfectly clear, you said the risk premium is $27 per barrel.

所以，这在我们观察到的价格上涨中占了很大一部分。

So it's a lot of what we have seen in terms of the rise in prices.

因此，如果我们看到战争局势好转，很多涨幅可能会回吐。

So if we did see things improving on the war front, a lot of that could come out.

对。

That's right.

我们认为上个月石油市场供需平衡，产量与需求相当。

We think the oil market was balanced last month with oil output equaling demand.

我们对布伦特原油的公允价值估算为每桶85美元，这个数字考虑了库存水平。

And our fair value estimate of Brent, which is $85 per barrel, does take into account in the inventory levels.

我们认为，过去几周油价上涨基本上全部是由风险溢价上升驱动的，而不是布伦特原油公允价值本身的变化。

And we do think that essentially all of the increase in prices over the last few weeks is driven by an increase in the risk premium rather than an increase in the fair value of brand.

但考虑到供应面临的下行风险不断加大，这也可以理解。

But it's understandable given the growing downside risk to supply.

但在成品油方面，情况就大不一样了。

But it's a different story on the refined product product side.

我们看到那里的实物供应更加紧张。

We are seeing more physical tightness there.

跟我们说说这个情况，以及我们日常消费的成品油价格会受什么影响？

Tell me about that and what are the implications for product prices that we all consume?

好。

Yes.

我们估算，尽管过去几周波斯湾的原油出口量达到2025年平均水平的110%，但柴油等成品油的出口仅为2025年平均水平的40%。

We do estimate that while crude oil exports out of the Persian Gulf are at 110 of twenty twenty five average levels over the last couple of weeks, for refined oil products such as diesel, it's only 40% of twenty twenty five average levels.

这部分原因是中东的炼油厂受损，也因为成品油比原油更容易燃，组织船对船转运更加困难。

That's in part because of damage to refineries in The Middle East and also because it's harder to organize these ship to ship transfers for refined products than for crude because the products are more inflammable.

我们认为，柴油等成品油价格的部分上涨其实与中东无关。

We do think that some of the strength in refined oil product prices such as diesel is not related to The Middle East.

在战争爆发前，由于投资不足，市场已经存在明显的结构性紧张，而俄罗斯的炼油厂又因为乌克兰的无人机袭击，大幅削减了柴油产量。

You had some significant structural tightness as a result of underinvestment before the war started, and Russian refineries have significantly curtailed their outputs of diesel because of the drone attacks from Ukraine.

所以，即使中东局势得到解决，原油价格明显回落，我们也预期在这种情景下柴油价格仍会远高于历史平均水平。

And so even if you were to see a resolution in The Middle East and a significant moderation in crude prices, we would expect in such a scenario to see diesel prices still well above their historical averages.

那汽油价格呢？美国这边非常关注，因为油价很高，而且我们即将迎来中期选举。

And what about gasoline prices, though very much in focus here in The US as we look at very high prices at the pump and we are heading into midterm elections?

那里的前景如何？

What's the outlook there?

是的，俄罗斯和中东带来的双重供应冲击，起初主要是柴油冲击，因为中东和俄罗斯专门精炼柴油，他们生产的是富含柴油的重质原油。

Yeah, so the double negative supply shock from Russia and The Middle East was initially mostly a diesel shock because The Middle East and Russia specialize in refining diesel and they produce heavy barrels that are diesel rich.

但是柴油市场的紧张现在也开始影响到汽油市场，因为炼油厂看到柴油的利润非常高，他们会决定把产量从汽油转向利润更高的产品，比如柴油和航空燃油。

But the tightness in diesel markets is now causing tightness in gasoline markets because when refiners look at the very high diesel margins, they are deciding to switch their output away from gasoline to the higher margin products, such as diesel and jet.

结果，汽油市场很快就变得紧张起来。

And as a result, the gasoline market is tightening very quickly.

而且，因为汽油的价格起点更低，加上炼油厂的这种转换行为，汽油价格还有更多上涨的空间。

And there's more room for price upside down on the gasoline side, given a lower starting point for prices and the switching behavior by refiners.

丹，还有更多上涨空间。

More room for upside, Dan.

这可不是什么好消息，但非常感谢你的分析。

That's not good news, but thanks very much for that.

我们看到的另一个价格大幅上涨的领域是能源运输中的运费。

The other area that we are seeing substantial price increases is in freight rates in parts of the energy complex.

为什么会这样呢？

Why is that happening?

给我们详细讲讲吧。

Talk us through it.

过去一年，全球原油平均运费飙升了每桶20美元，其中大约四分之三的增长与重组供应链、将原油从中东运出有关。这既是因为存在风险溢价，以补偿船运公司面临的更高罢工风险，也是因为我们通过船对船转运的方式低效地占用了大量油轮，还因为伊朗油轮也因美国的封锁而被搁置。

So the global average crude freight rate has surged by $20 per barrel over the last year with about three quarters of that increase related to the costs from reorganizing the supply chain to get crude out of the Middle East, both because of a risk premium to compensate the shippers for the higher risk of strikes, but also because we're tying up a lot of tankers in an inefficient way via the ship to ship transfers, and because the Iranian tankers are also tied up because of The US blockade.

剩下的四分之一，即每桶20美元的同比涨幅中，反映了船用燃料成本的上升。

The remaining one quarter of the $20 year over year price increase reflects higher marine fuel costs.

影响有两点。

The implications are twofold.

这意味着不同地区的原油价格差异更大，比如在美洲、美国、加拿大这些地方，原油生产商离炼油厂近。

It means greater differences in crude prices across regions in places like The Americas, US, Canada, where crude producers are close to refiners.

这意味着在亚洲这样的地方，炼油厂距离原油生产商非常遥远，原油价格会更便宜。

It means cheaper crude prices in places like Asia, where the refiners are very far away from their crude producers.

比如中东的炼油厂，他们必须承担高额运费，这推高了原油价格，最终也推高成品油价格。

For instance, The Middle East, they have to pay up the high freight rates and it's putting upward pressure on crude prices and ultimately product prices.

第二个影响是，最终这些高额运费大部分都要由消费者来承担。

And the second implication is that ultimately these high freight costs have to be paid mostly by the consumers.

因此，这也是加油站成品油价格高企的另一个原因，尤其是在亚洲这样的地方。

And so it's another reason why product prices at the pump, especially in places like Asia, are very elevated.

不过这对整个货运市场影响不大，因为运油用的是另一种油轮，对吧？

And that's not impacting though freight broadly because it's a very different type of tanker that ships oil, correct?

没错。

That's right.

原油油轮紧张的情况确实会波及成品油油轮，因为你可以把成品油油轮改成运原油，但对其他非石油类货物的航运价格没什么太大影响。

So the tightness in crude oil tankers is creating some tightness into refined product tankers because you can shift a tanker from a product tanker to a crude tanker, but there are no significant spillovers to broader cargo freight rates for other goods outside of the oil sector.

我们聊聊欧洲的天然气吧，因为液化天然气也受到了中东战争的影响。

Let's talk for a moment about European natural gas because LNG, liquefied natural gas, is also being impacted by the war in The Middle East.

如果液化天然气运输一直像现在这样低迷，加上欧洲遇到一个寒冷的冬天，那对欧洲今冬的能源价格会有什么影响？

If the shipments of LNG remain depressed as I think they are today, but please give us the lay of the land there, and we have a cold winter in Europe, what are the implications for European energy prices this winter?

对，能源价格会面临很大的上涨压力。

Yeah, significant up side to energy prices.

虽然我们认为原油价格的市场风险比较对称，但欧洲天然气价格确实存在明显的上行风险。

And while we characterize the risk to market prices for crude as fairly symmetrical, we do see net upside risk to European natural gas prices.

主要有三个原因。

Basically three reasons.

库存非常低。

Inventories are very low.

储存天然气比储存原油要难得多。

It's much harder to store natural gas than it is to store crude.

第二点，正如你所说，中东的液化天然气出口大概只有2025年平均水平的三分之一。

Second, to your point, estimated exports of LNG from The Middle East are only at around one third of twenty twenty five average levels.

除了供应中断外，第二个大的变数是天气。

And in addition to media supply, the second big swing factor is weather.

所以，如果卡塔尔的液化天然气出口显著恢复，欧洲TTF天然气价格可能会从目前的每兆瓦时约90欧元降至零。

And so if we were to see a significant improvement in LNG exports from Qatar, TTF European natural gas prices could decline from roughly €90 at the moment to zero.

但如果出口保持目前的低位，TTF价格可能会达到三位数，且可能上涨70%，至每兆瓦时150欧元。

However, if exports stay at currently low levels, we would see TTF prices in triple digit territory with a potential 70% increase to €150 per megawatt hour.

如果同时出现中东低流量和比平均冬天冷一个标准差的天气，情况会更糟。

If you both get stagnation, low flows from The Middle East and a one standard deviation colder than average winter.

此外，这也会传导到电价上。

Moreover, this would also spill over into power prices.

所以我们认为欧洲能源价格面临很大的上行风险。

And so we see significant upside risk to European energy prices.

再补充一点背景，这个情景和俄乌冲突后欧洲能源危机时相比怎么样？

Just for a little bit more perspective, how does that scenario compare to what we saw in the European energy crisis post the invasion of Ukraine?

虽然冲击的规模大致相当，但现在中东供应的损失和当时俄罗斯供应的损失差不多。

While the size of the shock is roughly comparable, the loss of Russian supply is roughly equal to the loss of Middle East supply today.

我们预计欧洲天然气价格不会超过每兆瓦时300欧元，也就是2022年的峰值，原因有几个。

We would not expect European natural gas prices to rise above €300 per megawatt hour, which was the peak in 2022 for a few reasons.

欧洲的天然气需求已经下降了大约20%。

We have lost about 20% of European natural gas demand.

在供应方面，中东以外的供应，包括美国的供应，已经大幅增加。

And on the supply side, supply outside of The Middle East, including in The US, has risen significantly.

所以净效应是上行，但不会像2022年那样极端。

So net upside, but not quite the extreme upside from 2022.

明白了。

Understood.

除了能源，其他一些大宗商品市场也在收紧，备受关注。

And beyond energy, there are other commodity markets in focus that are tightening.

你特别关注铜。

You're focused in particular on copper.

铜那边情况如何？为什么你认为未来会更紧张？

What's going on there and why do you see more tightness ahead?

铜价同比上涨了35%。

So copper prices are up 35% year over year.

我们预计到明年年底还有10%的上涨空间，达到15600，主要是因为美国和中国——这也是整个大宗商品团队的看法——在争夺有限的金属供应。

We see another 10% of upside by the end of next year to 15,600, Essentially because The US and China, and this is a broader team across commodity markets, are competing for a limited amount of metal.

美国正在大量进口并囤积铜，因为预期可能美国会对铜征收进口关税。

The US is importing and stockpiling a lot of copper because of a expectation that there could be U.

对。

S.

美国会对铜征收进口关税。

Import tariffs on copper.

所以交易员们想抢在关税落地之前，赶紧把金属囤进来。

And so traders want to be ahead of the potential tariff, get the metal in now.

而在中国这边，由于回收供应疲软，也就是回收废铜的供应不足，精炼铜的需求大幅增加。

And on the Chinese side, there is a big increase in demand for refined copper because of weakness in terms of recycling supply, the supply of recycled scrap copper.

所以，如果这两个超级大国都在抢铜，美国以外的库存就会很低。

So if the two superpowers are pulling on the metal, inventories outside of The US are low.

随着这两股力量持续发挥作用，我们预计供应会进一步收紧，价格还会上涨。

And as those two forces continue to play out, we would expect further tightening and further price upside.

丹，再提醒我们一下，哪些行业用到铜？

And remind us, Daan, what industries consume copper?

谁受到涨价的冲击最大？

Who will be feeling the most pain from this upside?

数据中心和科技公司、军工企业、电气设备公司、汽车制造商，还有太阳能电池板生产商。

Data centers and tech companies, defense companies, electrical equipment companies, car producers and also producers of solar panels.

所以这是一种应用很广泛的商品，特别是跟电力相关的领域，而电力恰好是供应紧张很严重的领域，因为数据中心的电力需求很大。

So it's a fairly widely used commodity, especially for everything related to power, which is precisely a sector where we're a lot of tightness because of the data center power demand.

所以这也是一些成本上涨的原因。

So more reason for some cost inflation there.

另一个我想问你的大宗商品，Daan，最后是黄金。

The other commodity I wanted to ask you about, Daan, to close out is gold.

一般来说，当利率上升时，黄金会面临下行压力。

Generally, we see downward pressure on gold when interest rates are elevated.

我们知道最近一段时间利率环境较高，但你仍然看好黄金。

We know that we have been in a higher rate environment in the recent period, but you're still pretty bullish on gold.

那么请跟我们说说，为什么你认为黄金在这里有韧性？

So talk us through why you think gold has some resilience here.

我认为黄金前景的结构性看涨因素没有改变。

I think the structural bull factor for the gold outlook has not changed.

例如，在过去的三个月里，各国央行的购买速度是2022年前平均水平（俄罗斯储备被冻结时）的五倍。

If you, for instance, look at the last three months, central banks have been buying at a pace that's five X the pre 2022 average when Russia's reserves got frozen.

从周期性来看，利率上升确实对投资者的黄金需求和黄金价格构成挑战。

Now on the cyclical side, the increase in rates does pose a challenge to investor gold demand and to gold prices.

但在我们经济学家的基准情形下，美联储在12月最后一次加息后就结束加息了。

But in the base case of our economists, the Fed is done hiking after a last hike in December.

而且因为部分加息已被市场消化，在我们看来，由于央行购金和利率环境的改善，金价有显著的上涨空间。

And because some of the rate hikes are priced in, we do see a significant upside to gold prices in our base case because of central bank buying and an improvement in the rates environment.

再次感谢你的参与，Daan。

Thanks again for joining us, Daan.

非常感谢。

Appreciate it.

谢谢，Alison。

Thank you, Alison.

本期《高盛交流》节目录制于2026年10月22日，星期四。

This episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges was recorded on Thursday, 10/22/2026.

如果你喜欢这期节目，希望你能订阅Apple Podcasts、Spotify或你常用的任何播客平台，并给我们评分和留言。

If you enjoyed the show, we hope you'll subscribe to Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and leave us a rating and comment.

我是Allison Nathan。

I'm Allison Nathan.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

本节目所表达的观点和看法仅代表发布日期当天的情况，如有变化，恕不另行通知，且未必反映高盛或其关联机构的机构观点。

Opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication subject to change without notice and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates.

本材料仅供信息参考，不构成投资建议，不构成高盛任何实体对任何特定行动的推荐，也不构成购买或出售任何证券或金融产品的要约或招揽。

The material provided is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products.

本材料可能包含前瞻性陈述。

This material may contain forward looking statements.

过往业绩不代表未来表现。

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

高盛及其关联机构均不对本材料中所含陈述或信息的准确性或完整性作任何明示或暗示的陈述或保证，并且对于因依赖此类信息而造成的任何损失，均不承担任何责任。

Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties expressed or implied as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose.

本材料中提及的第三方组织名称，均为该组织所拥有的财产，此处仅为信息和识别目的而使用，并不暗示该组织与高盛之间存在任何所有权或许可关系。

Each name of a third party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.

文字记录仅为方便提供，可能与原始视频或音频内容有所差异。

A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content.

高盛不对转录中的任何错误负责。

Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript.

未经高盛明确书面同意，任何接收者不得复制、分发、发布或转载本材料，无论是全文还是部分内容，也不得向任何其他人披露。

This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs.

本材料中提及的任何发行人的相关研究披露信息，可通过您的高盛代表或访问 www.gs.com/research/hedge.html 获取。

Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

版权 2026。

Copyright 2026.

高盛。

Goldman Sachs.

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All rights reserved.