新的AI交易

如果你看一下标普500指数这样的指标，你会觉得今年美国股市的开局相当平静。

If you look at an index like the S and P 500, you'd think it's been a quiet start to the year for US stocks.

但在表面之下，实际上发生了剧烈的变动，尤其是软实力股票表现尤为显著。

But there have been seismic shifts under the surface with soft force stocks in particular moving dramatically.

那么，这些变动背后的原因是什么？它们又向我们揭示了这场长期牛市的现状如何？

So what's behind these moves, and what do they tell us about the state of this long running bull market?

我是艾莉森·内森，欢迎收看高盛交易所。

I'm Alison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs Exchanges.

今天，我将与高盛研究部的投资组合策略师瑞安·汉蒙德进行对话。

Today, I'm sitting down with Ryan Hammond, a portfolio strategist in Goldman Sachs Research.

瑞安，欢迎再次做客

Ryan, welcome back to

这个节目。

the program.

谢谢你的邀请。

Thanks for having me.

所以，Ryan，我们从最近几天价格波动剧烈的软件股说起吧。

So, Ryan, let's start where the price action has been really volatile in recent days, software stocks.

用一些具体数据来说明这些变动。

Put some numbers around these moves.

给我们一些背景，谈谈我们看到了什么。

Give us some context about what we've seen.

是的。

Yeah.

一组软件股今年年初下跌了约25%。

A group of software stocks is down about 25% to start the year.

部分抛售压力早在2026年之前就已开始。

Some of that selling pressure started earlier than 2026.

这些股票从10月的高点算起，跌幅已超过30%。

These stocks are down more than 30% from their highs in October.

但大部分抛售压力发生在过去一两周内。

But most of the selling pressure has occurred in the last week or two.

如果你从估值的角度来看，这些股票之所以深受投资者欢迎，部分原因是它们属于高增长、高利润率的业务，但如今这些特质正受到投资者的审视。

If you think about it in a valuation context, these stocks are super popular among investors, in part because they're fast growing, high margin businesses, but that is coming under some scrutiny from investors.

因此，几周前，由于这些特性，这些股票的远期市盈率约为35倍。

And so, you know, a couple of weeks ago, these stocks traded at a forward earnings multiple of about 35x because of those attributes.

根据最新数据，它们的远期市盈率已降至约20倍。

As of the latest readings, they trade at about 20x forward earnings.

因此出现了巨大的估值下调。

So a huge valuation derating.

如果与整个市场相比，这些股票的估值溢价已从超过100%降至如今的20%。

And when you think about it relative to the rest of the market, they went from trading at a premium of more than 100% to the rest of the market to just 20% today.

从历史角度看，这一估值溢价现已接近全球金融危机时期的水平。

And if you look historically, that valuation premium is now approaching levels you reached in the global financial crisis.

因此，当我们从基本面角度思考时，对我们而言，投资者似乎在短短几天内，将对这群股票的增长预期从15%至20%下调至5%至10%。

And so when we think about it relative to fundamentals, to us, it seems like investors have gone from valuing this group of stocks in the 15% to 20% growth range to 5% to 10 growth in the span of a couple of days.

目前尚不清楚这种预期是否会成真，但价格走势确实向我们传递了这样的信号。

It's not clear whether or not that will or will not pan out, but that's certainly what the price action is suggesting to us.

这是一次巨大的变动。

That is a major, major move.

但最近几天经历大幅波动的不仅仅是这些软件股票。

But it's not just these software stocks that have seen a lot of action in recent days.

其他股票，我认为由于类似的原因，我们稍后会谈到，也受到了压力。

Other stocks, really for, I think, similar reasons, which we'll talk about, have also come under pressure.

跟我们聊聊还有哪些行业受到了冲击。

Talk to us a little about what other sectors are getting hit.

是的。

Yeah.

我们看到出版、广告、媒体、法律服务和IT咨询服务等领域出现了大量抛售压力。

We've seen big selling pressure in spaces like publishing, advertising, media, legal services, IT consulting services.

任何涉及数据和服务的行业都正面临巨大压力。

Anything that's involved in data and services is really coming under pressure.

这些行业传统上与软件板块的相关性并不高。

And these are traditionally industries that have not traded with a very high correlation to the software space.

因此，很明显，AI颠覆风险是近期这些行业普遍下跌的共同原因。

And so it's clear that AI disruption risk is really the common thread throughout a lot of these industries selling off in recent weeks.

没错。

Right.

但这种AI颠覆风险，投资者们早就有所关注了。

But this AI disruption risk, it's been on investors' minds for some time now.

那为什么现在才出现这些变动呢？

So why now for these moves?

没错。

That's right.

我们多年来一直在和投资者讨论这个问题。

We've been discussing this with investors for many years.

而且，我们已经识别出一些我们认为非常关键的近期风险。

And, you know, we've identified a couple of proximate risks that we think are really key.

谷歌发布了其Genie 3模型，其中包含一些与游戏相关的工具。

Google released its Genie three model, which had some tools around gaming.

因此，在Genie三号模型发布后，你看到游戏和广告类股票出现了抛售压力。

So you saw some selling pressure among the gaming and advertising stocks following the launch there.

接着，Claude的协作工具推出了大量与这些服务行业相关的插件，导致法律服务及其他相关行业出现了你所看到的抛售压力。

You then had Claude's co work tool that had a bunch of plug ins related to some of these services industries that led to the selling pressure you saw in legal services and some of those other industries.

甚至就在过去一两天里，你看到保险公司推出了可以比较保险报价的产品。

And even as of the last day or two, you've seen insurance companies release products that can compare insurance quotes.

因此，你看到保险公司的股价也出现了抛售压力。

And so you've seen selling pressure in insurance companies.

对我们而言，这似乎表明，这些大型语言模型正在推出越来越多针对特定行业的应用，这正促使投资者质疑这些商业模式的长期可持续性。

And so to us, it seems like you're starting to see more industry specific applications be rolled out from some of these large language models that is really leading to investors questioning the long term sustainability of some of these business models.

现在，如果你从股权投资者的角度来看，股票本质上是未来现金流的折现值。

Now, you know, if you think about it from an equity investor perspective, an equity is a discounted stream of future cash flows.

而投资者当前争论的焦点是，该如何为公司的长期终值赋予价值？

And the debate that investors are having right now is what kind of value do you assign to that terminal value, that long term terminal value for a company?

我们的回答是，目前我们还不知道，对吧？

And our answer is we don't know at this point, right?

要理解这一点将如何发展，还有很多事情需要发生。

A lot has to happen for us to understand how that's going to evolve.

是的，这些工具刚刚推出。

Yeah, these tools have just been rolled out.

这些工具的采用及其有效性仍处于早期阶段。

It's still early in the timeline for adoption of those tools, their efficacy.

所有这些类型的问题都需要得到解决。

All of these types of questions have to be resolved.

但在我们看来，投资者似乎认为这些股票长期被高估且一直很受欢迎。

But it seems to us like investors are saying these stocks traded at high valuations and have been popular for a long time.

让我们先重新调整投资组合，然后再逐步解决一些问题。

Let's reposition our portfolios first and then start to work through some of the questions later.

让我们暂时退一步，瑞安，因为你对历史上的颠覆性事件做了大量研究。

And let's take a step back for a moment, Ryan, because you've done a lot of research on historical episodes around disruption.

从这类研究中，你学到了哪些可以应用于我们今天思考方式的见解？

So what did you learn from that type of research that could be applicable to how we think about today?

是的。

Yeah.

我们正试图帮助投资者思考，何时是买入这些股票的合适时机，或者说是卖压可能过度的地方。

Well, we're trying to help investors think through when is the right time to buy these stocks or, you know, where is maybe the selling pressure overdone.

因此，我们回顾了历史，试图寻找市场中类似颠覆风险的时期。

And so we did look historically to try to find periods where you had analogs of disruption risk in markets.

我们确定了两个案例：2000年代报纸业随着互联网兴起而衰落，以及1990年代烟草业因立法而非技术颠覆而受挫，但后者仍是一个相关的类比。

The two that we identified were newspapers in the 2000s alongside the rise of the internet and then tobacco in the 1990s related to legislation more than technological disruption, but still kind of a relevant analog.

在这两种情况下，我们发现了两个共同点：股价大幅下跌，很多时候持续数年而非仅几天。

In both of those situations, we found two common threads: Large price declines, in many cases over multiple years rather than the span of a couple of days.

但就未来走势而言，真正关键的是盈利表现。

But in terms of the forward path, it was really earnings that held the key.

这些行业的股价触底时间，往往与盈利开始企稳的时期更为接近。

The prices of those industries bottomed more closely to periods when earnings started to stabilize.

在这两个时期，我们都看到了盈利预期的下调，只有当盈利预测开始企稳时，股价才开始回升。

You saw downward revisions to earnings in both of those episodes, and only when you saw earnings estimates start to stabilize did you see prices start to recover.

我认为今天也可以讲一个类似的故事。

I think you can tell a similar story today.

如果你跟我们的股票分析师聊聊，他们会同样认为，短期内盈利是软件行业的一个非常重要的驱动因素。

If you talk to our equity analysts, they similarly feel like earnings are a very important driver of the software space in the near term.

我们在过去几天已经看到了这一点。

We've seen it in the last couple of days.

软件股票实际上略有反弹，这些公司发布了一些业绩公告，结果好于预期，支撑了部分价格走势。

Software stocks have actually rebounded a little bit, and there have been a couple of earnings announcements from these companies that have been better than feared and supported some of the price action.

因此，我们团队的更广泛观点是，盈利对整个市场都至关重要，但我觉得这对颠覆风险也同样适用。

And so, you know, this is a broader view from our team that earnings are really key to this market in general, but I think that's also true for the disruption risk.

难点在于，这可能不会在一两个季度内得到解决。

Now, the hard part is this may not be resolved in one or two quarters.

这是一个持续多年的讨论，我认为投资者将会持续探讨，但我认为，在财报季中看到基本面依然强劲的迹象，将有助于我们说服一些投资者。

This is a multiyear debate that I think investors will be having, but I think signs in earning seasons that the fundamentals are still strong, I think, would help us wage some investors.

对。

Right.

我的意思是，为了说得清楚一点，只要这些公司仍在实现盈利并增长，投资者就会重新对它们更有信心。

I mean, just to be perfectly clear, as long as these companies are still delivering on earnings and growing, then investors are going to be able to have more confidence again in them.

因此，接下来的几个季度里，这是我们密切关注的方面。

So that's what we're watching closely over the next several quarters.

我认为这是对的。

I think that's right.

我认为难点在于，长期的盈利前景可能会面临更大压力，对吧？

I think the hard part is just the long term earnings outlook may be under more pressure, right?

在接下来的几个季度里，这种情况可能是真的。

That could be true for the next couple of quarters.

这实际上是短期基本面良好与这些公司长期基本面预期之间的张力，部分原因在于，对于股票而言，长期价值才是股票价值的主要所在。

It's really the tension between good near term fundamentals and what kind of long term fundamentals you can assume for these companies, in part because for equities, that long term value is really where a lot of the value of the equity is.

明白。

Understood.

如果我们把视角放得更广一些，看看过去几年在市场中占据主导地位的更广泛的AI投资主题，就会感到有些困惑，因为一些主要的AI相关股票今年并没有上涨，这表明这并不仅仅是投资者认为AI的影响会比我们预期的更大那么简单。

If we zoom out a little bit to the broader AI trade and theme that's been so dominant in the markets the last couple of years, it's a little bit confusing because some of the big AI centric stocks haven't been rallying this year, and so that kind of suggests that this isn't just about investors deciding AI is going to have a bigger impact than we all expected.

那么，当我们观察这些以AI为核心的股票表现时，近期推动它们的是什么？

So when we look at the performance of these AI centric stocks, driving that in the recent period?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，在AI连续几年成为标普500指数和更广泛市场增长引擎之后，对我们而言，2026年的AI投资主题看起来复杂多了。

I think after a couple of years of AI being the growth engine for S and P 500 returns, broader markets, to us, the AI trade just looks a lot more complicated in 2026.

我认为确定的一点是，各公司正在大量投资资本支出，以推动AI基础设施建设。

I think one thing that is for certain is companies are spending a lot on CapEx to fuel the AI build out.

所以，我们来具体看一下数字，五大公开的美国超大规模云服务商去年在资本支出上花费了约4000亿美元。

So, you know, to put some numbers on that, the five large public U.

美国。

S.

五大公开的美国超大规模云服务商去年在资本支出上花费了约4000亿美元。

Hyperscalers spent about $400,000,000,000 on CapEx last year.

今年年初，分析师预计它们在2026年的资本支出将增至约5400亿美元，支出金额继续增加，但增速放缓。

At the start of this year, analysts were expecting them to spend about $540,000,000,000 on CapEx in 2026, a further increase in spending, large dollar amounts, but a slowing growth rate.

在财报季之后，几家公司的资本支出数字出现了大幅超预期，这一预期已上调至6600亿美元，短短几周内，资本支出预期增加了1200亿美元。

Following earnings season, where you had a couple of these companies announce big upside surprises to their CapEx numbers, that estimate is up to $660,000,000,000 So you've added $120,000,000,000 of incremental CapEx expectations in the span of a couple of weeks.

2026年的增长率现在达到60%，而年初时分析师的预期仅为35%。

The growth rate is now 60% in 2026 rather than thirty five percent at the start of the year based on analyst expectations.

我们的观点是，这些数字可能还有进一步上升的空间。

Our view is there's probably room for those numbers to keep going up.

这些公司持续传达他们计划继续投资的信息。

These companies continue to message that they plan to invest.

它们拥有强劲的资产负债表和现金流，但目前市场上存在许多供应瓶颈，限制了部分支出。

They have very strong balance sheets and cash flow generation, and there are many supply constraints out there that is constraining some of that spending.

但我想强调的第一点是，大量支出正在发生。

But I think point number one is a lot of spending is happening.

难点在于，市场对这些公告的股价反应差异巨大，对吧？

The hard part is the stock price reactions to those announcements was very disparate, right?

你看到这些公司的资本支出数字都上升了，但有些股票上涨了10%，有些下跌了10%，还有一些在公告当天基本持平。

You saw all of these companies saw their cap CapEx numbers go up, but you saw some stocks go up 10%, some stocks go down 10%, and some stocks basically stay flat on the day of the announcements.

那为什么会这样？

So why is that?

在我们看来，这是因为投资者正在更仔细地审视人工智能的变现能力以及底层业务的基本面。

To us, that's because investors are taking a closer look at monetization of AI and the fundamentals of underlying business.

所以，如果一家公司能够向投资者传达他们正在实现人工智能变现，这可能是通过他们的云业务，也可能是通过他们的广告业务，那么这些股票的反应就会积极，因为投资者对这项投资的回报有信心。

So, you know, if a company was able to message to investors that they are monetizing AI, that could be through their cloud business, that could be through their ad business, then those stocks responded favorably because investors have confidence in the return on that investment.

如果你看到这些业务的预测数据、销售额或收益出现压力，那么这些公司的股价就会下跌。

If you saw some pressure in those estimates for those businesses or their sales or earnings, then you saw those companies come down.

因此，在我们看来，这个板块内部的差异将会变得更大。

And so to us, it looks like the group is just going to be have a lot more dispersion within the group.

不再会是整个板块的股票共同推动指数上涨。

No longer is it going to be one big group of stocks powering the index higher.

你会看到有些股票表现更好，有些则更差。

You will see periods where some stocks are doing better or worse than others.

对我们而言，关键在于资本支出如何转化为这些公司的收入和盈利。

And again, for us, it's really how is CapEx translating into revenues and earnings for these companies.

我认为这将决定哪些股票从中受益最多。

I think that will determine which stocks are benefiting from this the most.

此外，关于这些资本支出是如何融资的，有没有什么方面值得注意？

And is there an aspect as well in terms of how is that CapEx being funded?

因为我们听到越来越多的报告称，资金正越来越多地通过杠杆和债务获得。

Because we are hearing reports that more and more is coming through leverage and debt.

是的。

Yeah.

好消息是，长期以来，这些公司都是现金流充裕的企业，它们在核心业务中产生了非常强劲的现金流，足以负担与AI基础设施建设相关的资本支出。

I think the good news is for a long time, these companies were cash flow rich companies that were generating very strong cash flows in their underlying businesses that could afford to spend on this CapEx related to the AI build out.

随着我们接近2026年，这些数字不断上升，我认为这一说法正面临一些压力。

As we get to 2026 and these numbers have come up a lot, I think that story is coming under a little bit of pressure.

如果你看看2026年的预测，根据分析师对这些公司资本支出和现金流的预测，预计资本支出将接近其经营活动产生的现金流的90%。

If you look at 2026 estimates, based on the level of CapEx and cash flows that analysts are forecasting for these companies, expected to reach about 90% of their cash flows from operations that they're generating.

它们的资产负债表上仍有现金，但正逐渐进入一个大量消耗其核心业务现金流的阶段。

They still have cash on the balance sheet, but you're getting to territory where it's exhausting a lot of their cash flows from their underlying businesses.

因此，你已经看到更多债务发行的新闻。

And so you have seen headlines of more debt issuance.

你知道，它们已经减少了其他现金使用，比如股票回购，这将成为未来的趋势。

You know, they pulled back on some of their other uses of cash like buybacks, and this will be a theme going forward.

我认为对整个市场来说的好消息是，企业与消费者的资产负债表依然非常强劲。

I think the good news for markets as a whole is corporate and consumer balance sheets remain very strong.

即使这些公司也拥有非常非常强劲的资产负债表，基本上没有杠杆，只有少数例外。

Even these companies have very, very strong balance sheets, effectively no leverage on their balance sheets to start with a few exceptions among the group.

但是的，我认为你如何实现盈利、如何为其融资，所有这些都将导致指数顶部出现巨大分化。

But yeah, I think how you're monetizing it, how you're funding it, all of that will lead to a lot of dispersion at the top of the index.

所以，如果我们从整体上思考周期性股票的上涨，这也在所有这些背景下发生，是否只是某种轮动在进行？

So if we think about the rally broadly in like cyclical stocks that's also occurring amid all of this, is there just sort of a rotation going on?

你如何解释在所有这些波动中，标普500指数的整体表现？

How do you explain the overall performance of the S and P five hundred amid all of this volatility?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为困难的部分在于，一些软件股和人工智能颠覆风险的抛售，恰好发生在投资者已经打算转向那些多年来表现优异的领头公司之外的其他市场板块的时候。

I think the hard part is the selloff in some of the software names and AI disruption risk comes at a time when investors were already looking to own other parts of the market besides those leading companies that have done well for so many years.

因此，我们可以说，2026年市场至今的关键词是‘扩散’。

So we would say the defining word of the 2026 market so far has been broadening.

你可以看到，非美国股票相对于美国股票表现更优，小盘股在一段时间以来首次跑赢大盘股，周期性股票的表现也优于防御性股票。

You can see that in the outperformance of non US equities versus US equities, small caps doing better than large caps for the first time in a while, and cyclicals doing better than defensives.

我们的观点是，这种扩散背后有良好的宏观原因。

And our view is there's a good macro reason for that broadening.

高盛的经济学家预测，随着关税带来的逆风减弱、金融条件和财政政策形成顺风，2026年经济增长将加速，这将推动经济增速超过趋势水平和市场共识，而这对长期以来未能推动市场上涨的周期性板块非常有利。

Economists here at Goldman are forecasting that economic growth will accelerate in the 2026 as you get a fading headwind from tariffs, building tailwinds from financial conditions and fiscal policy, all of that will lead to above trend, above consensus, accelerating economic growth, and that is good for cyclical parts of the market that for a long time have not really been the ones driving markets higher.

因此，像可选消费、交通运输和部分工业板块这样的市场细分领域，正在推动市场上涨，我们认为，如果宏观环境持续有利，这种趋势还有进一步发展的空间。

And so, you know, pockets of the market like consumer discretionary companies or transports or some of the industrial complex, those stocks are really driving markets higher, and we think there's probably room for that to continue if the macro environment continues to be friendly.

因此，当前正同时发生着一系列因素，共同导致了指数内部的这些板块轮动。

So you have kind of this confluence of factors happening at the same time that lead to some of these rotations under the hood of the index.

综上所述，这一切究竟告诉我们关于美国经济的什么信息？

So putting this all together, what does this really tell us about The U.

S.

S.

牛市？

Bull market?

能持续吗？

Can it last?

我的意思是，你觉得可以。

I mean, you think it can.

是的。

Yeah.

如果我们看一下我们对标普500指数水平的预测，我们认为指数从当前水平还有进一步上涨空间，但相对于过去几年的回报幅度已经开始缩小。

So if you look at our S and P 500 index level forecast, we do have further upside to the index from here, but the magnitude of returns relative to the past couple of years is starting to get smaller.

我们预测的基础是盈利，对吧？

The underpinning for our forecast is earnings, right?

估值相对于历史水平已经非常高了。

Valuations are very high relative to history.

我们认为这些主要是由这些公司的宏观和基本面前景支撑的，但预计市盈率将大致维持在当前水平，真正推动市场上涨的将是盈利。

We think those are mostly supported by the macro and fundamental outlook for these companies, but we think multiples will stay roughly flat around current levels, and instead, earnings will be the thing driving markets higher.

因此，好消息是，在告别第四季度财报季时，我们对大型美国公司的盈利前景非常有信心。

And so the good news is as we leave fourth quarter earnings season, we feel very confident in the earnings outlook for large cap U.

S.

S.

公司。

Companies.

如果你看一下第四季度的盈利情况，预计增长约12%。

If you look at fourth quarter earnings, they're on track to grow by about 12%.

该指数已经连续四个季度实现两位数的盈利增长。

You've had four consecutive quarters of double digit earnings growth for the index.

即使剔除最大的公司，中位数公司的第四季度盈利增长也约为9%。

Even if you take out the largest companies, the median company is growing earnings by about 9% in the fourth quarter.

因此，即使不考虑人工智能相关板块，指数内大多数公司的强劲盈利增长，都为股市继续上行提供了坚实基础。

So very healthy earnings growth for most companies in the index, even outside of the AI trade, should give you a very strong underpinning for continued equity market upside.

但高估值和高度集中意味着当前的起点较高，股市要实现大幅上涨的门槛也相应提高。

But high multiples, high concentration, all of that means the starting point is one where the bar is a little bit higher for big gains to the equity market.

因此，我们认为市场仍会有进一步上涨空间，但相比过去几年，增速会放缓。

And so we do think you'll see further upside but at a slowing pace relative to the past couple of years.

我认为，指数顶部的这种轮动和分化，正是我们相信这种趋势可能持续的原因之一。

And I think this rotation and dispersion at the top of the index, I think, is one reason believe that's probably going to continue.

一些今天尚未进入指数顶部的公司未来可能加入。

You can have companies come into the top of the index that are not there today.

一些公司也可能退出。

Companies may drop out.

但我们认为，标普500指数的活力将继续推动市场从当前水平实现温和上涨。

But the dynamism of the S and P 500, we think, should continue to lead to some modest upside from here.

感谢你加入我们的讨论，瑞安，为我们解读了这些重大市场动向。

Thanks for joining us, Ryan, and providing some insight in some of these very big moves.

谢谢你的邀请。

Thanks for having me.

感谢您收听本期高盛交流节目，本节目录制于2026年2月11日星期三。

And thank you for listening to this episode of Goldman Sachs exchanges, which is recorded on Wednesday, 02/11/2026.

我是艾莉森·纳撒恩。

I'm Alison Nathan.

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高盛。

Goldman Sachs.

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