交锋之言：2026年的能源转型

本播客专为当地法律法规所定义的机构、批发、专业客户及合格投资者准备。

This podcast has been prepared exclusively for institutional, wholesale, professional clients, and qualified investors only as defined by local laws and regulations.

请阅读其他重要信息，这些信息可在播客结尾的链接中找到。

Please read other important information, which can be found on the link at the end of the podcast episode.

欢迎收听2026年3月的IONO市场播客。

Welcome to the IONO market podcast for March 2026.

本期是我们年度能源报告播客，附带一份真正的市场洞察，其中包含约200张图表。

This one is our annual energy paper podcast accompanied by the actual eye on the market itself, which has, like, 200 charts in it.

本期名为《2026年的能源转型：激烈交锋》。

This one's called fighting words, the energy transition in 2026.

让我花一会儿时间向你们展示封面设计。

And let me show you the cover art for a minute.

封面设计灵感来自电影《黄金三镖客》，主演包括克林特·伊斯特伍德、李·范·克里夫和埃利·瓦拉赫。

So the cover art is inspired by this movie called the good, the bad, and the ugly, which had was Clint Eastwood and Lee Van Cleef and Eli Wallach.

影片结尾是一场三方枪战，三个人彼此对准，同时开火。

And at the end, there's a three way shootout, and they're all pointing at each other in in this shootout.

这正是我在与能源界许多人交谈时所发现的。

That's what I find when I talk to a lot of people in the energy world.

这是一场三方对决。

It's a three way shootout.

你有一个拿着风力涡轮机和太阳能板的人，认为可再生能源是唯一出路；还有一个躲在后面、手持天然气罐和柴油汽油泵的人，坚定地支持化石燃料。

You've got one guy with a wind turbine and a solar panel who thinks renewables are the only way to go, and then you've got a guy in the back who's holding a natural gas canister and a and a diesel gasoline pump who's committed to fossil fuels.

然后你还有右边那个手持两根浅绿色核棒的人。

And then you have the guy on the right who's holding two light green colored nuclear rods.

至少在《辛普森一家》里，他们是这样呈现的。

That's the way they at least they appear on the on the Simpsons.

而他就是那个核能派的人。

And and he's the nuclear guy.

他们彼此开火，因为他们都认为只有一种方式能同时解决能源安全、成本和可持续性问题。

And so they're all shooting at each other because they think there's only one way to to address both energy security and cost and sustainability.

这让我想起几年前我做的一场演讲，当时我谈论的是能源转型以及天然气的作用。

And so and it reminds me of of a speech I gave a couple of years ago where I was talking about the energy transition and the and the role of natural gas.

有一位客户对我发表的言论非常不满，甚至追着我跑到海滩上。

And there was a client that was so upset about the comments I had made that this person chased me out to the beach.

我当时在迈阿密，穿着工作鞋，根本跑不快。

I was in Miami, and had my work shoes on so I couldn't run.

所以只逃了不太远。

So that at least very far.

当我停下来试图解释并为我的言论提供背景时，却毫无作用。

And then when I stopped, I tried to explain and put some context around my comments, and it didn't do any good.

仅仅只是记录转型的节奏并谈论天然气的作用，人们就会给你强加各种假设和动机，即使这些完全没有依据。

By by simply chronicling the pace of the transition and talking about the role of natural gas, people ascribe all sorts of assumptions and motivations to you even when there's no basis for doing so.

总之，我指的就是这类容易引发争执的言论。

Anyway, so those are the kind of fighting words that I'm referring to.

因此，今年的能源报告中，我们将逐一梳理当前正在发生的各种辩论、争论和冲突。

And so this year in the energy paper, we're gonna go through all the debates and arguments and battles that are taking place.

例如，我们的数据中心是否导致了电价上涨？目前关于要求数据中心承担更多新增发电成本的反弹情绪，情况如何？

So for example, our data centers responsible for rising power prices, what's going on with the backlash right now in terms of requiring data centers to pick up a greater share of the tab of new generation?

如果它们同意在用电高峰时段削减负荷，是否可以将更多此类设备接入电网？

Can more of them be added to the grid if they agree to be curtailed at moments of peak demand?

随着中国持续向全球大量输出廉价的能源转型设备——无论是风能、太阳能、电池还是电动汽车——如果这些公司的运营利润率长期为负，这种情况如何能持续？

As China continues to flood the world with cheap energy transition equipment, whether it's wind, solar, batteries, or EVs, how is that gonna work over the long run if all their companies have deeply negative operating margins?

什么是主要能源谬误？为什么它很重要？

What is the primary energy fallacy, and why does it matter?

能源领域中一个最具争议的议题，对能源政策有着深远的实际影响。

One of the biggest debates in the energy world that has some real term implications for for energy policy.

当太阳能加储能被用于基荷电力时，其真实成本是多少？

What's the real cost of solar plus storage when used for baseload power?

去年有一份报告声称，其成本与天然气处于同一水平，而今年我们将对这份报告进行全面剖析。

There was a report that came out last year that claimed that it was in the same ballpark as natural gas, and we do a full endoscopy on that report this year.

可再生能源是推高还是降低了电价？

Do renewables raise or lower power prices?

这是一个重大问题。

Here's a big one.

在过去一年里，几乎每个客户都问我过：我们的小型模块化反应堆可行吗？

Almost every client has asked me at some point in the last year, our SMRs, small modular reactors, are they feasible?

它们的实际成本会是多少？

How much will they really cost?

在2030年之前，它们能多大程度上满足数据中心的需求？

How much will they they address data center needs before the year 2030?

我们会详细探讨这一点。

We're gonna go into detail on that.

我们该如何看待地热能、地质氢、氢能电池、固体氧化物燃料电池和虚拟电厂的种种炒作？

What should we make about all the hype over geothermal, geologic hydrogen, blooms, solid oxide fuel cells, virtual power plants?

今年我们会深入分析这些问题。

We get into that this year.

为什么卖电动汽车这么难赚钱？

Why is it so hard to make money selling EVs?

很少有公司能做到。

Very few companies can.

为什么ERCOT的电池套利收入正在崩溃？

Why are battery arbitrage revenues collapsing at ERCOT?

天然气和液化天然气供应链的真实碳排放足迹是多少？

What are the real emissions emissions footprints of natural gas and LNG supply chains?

xAI究竟是怎么获得许可，将天然气涡轮机安装在拖车上，却又豁免于一氧化二氮排放规定的？

And and how on earth did did xAI get permits to to install natural gas turbines on tractor trailers and then become exempt from the nitrous oxide emissions rules?

另一个话题是，为什么在所有税收优惠和众多参与者努力推动的情况下，可持续航空、公路和航运燃料仍然停滞不前？

And then another topic, why are sustainable aviation, motor, and shipping fuels still stuck in neutral after all the tax credits and and people trying to do it?

最后，为什么绿色氢和碳捕集每年都在我们的能源报告中成为不切实际愿景的代表，而显然，这种情况没有任何改变？

And then lastly, why are green hydrogen and carbon capture the poster children for unrealistic visions in our energy paper every single year, and, obviously, nothing has changed about that.

这些就是我们深入探讨的各类辩论、争论和较量。

So these are the kind of debates, arguments, and battles that we get into in detail.

我们为每一个话题都设立了独立的章节。

We have a separate chapter on each one of these topics.

我将简单介绍一下这个播客中的部分内容，希望你们是在观看而不是仅仅收听，因为这是一个高度依赖图表的体验。

I'm just gonna go through a little bit of the content on this podcast, and hopefully, you're watching this instead of just listening to it because this is a very chart based very chart based experience.

好的。

Okay.

那么我们现在在哪？

So where are we?

我们总是从这张图表开始，即能源转型的步伐如何？

Well, we always lead with this chart, which is what's the pace of the energy transition?

对我来说，这意味着观察可再生能源在所有有用最终能源中的占比。

And to me, that means looking at renewables as a share of all useful final energy.

后半句话非常重要。

That latter phrase is very important.

我们在论文中讨论过这一点。

We discuss it in the paper.

自2010年以来，这一过程基本上是线性的。

And so far, since 2010, this has been mostly a linear transition.

对吧？

Right?

这与科技行业中常见的S型技术采用曲线截然不同。

Very different from the s shaped technological adoption curves that you see in in the technology sector.

这些都是线性过渡。

These are linear transitions.

这些都是工业转型，需要时间和大量资本。

These are industrial transitions, and they take time and lots of capital.

因此，目前各国的线性增速略有不同，但这些都属于线性过渡。

And so now the the the pace of linearity is a little different here across countries, but these are linear transitions.

这一点非常重要，因为几年前如果你阅读了大量相关文章，你可能会认为：第一，可再生能源占比的提升会快得多；第二，投资天然气生产、涡轮机或相关设备绝对没有任何经济收益。但正如我们都知道的，事实恰恰相反。

And this has been really important to understand because if you read a few years ago all the things that were being written, you probably would have thought, a, there would be a much faster pace of these renewable share uptake, and, b, there would be absolutely no economic benefit to investing in anything related to natural gas production or or turbines or equipment, and nothing can be further from the truth as we all know.

如今，美国突然发现，到本十年末可能会出现相当大的电力供需缺口。

So now The United States is all of a sudden looking at at a at a fairly substantial power supply demand gap by the end of the decade.

缺口具体有多大无人知晓，但对我来说，很明显会出现电力供需缺口，其中很大一部分将通过联合循环涡轮机来填补，或者试图通过电网上的设备以及各种天然气燃烧装置进行用户侧发电来解决。

How big it is, nobody knows, but it's pretty clear to me that there's gonna be a power supply demand gap, a lot of which is going to be filled or attempted to be filled with combined cycle turbines that that people use on the on the grid and buy behind the meter generation with different kinds of natural gas combustion equip.

三菱、西门子和GE Vernova是联合循环涡轮机领域的三大巨头。

Mitsubishi, Siemens, and GE Vernova are are the are the big dogs in the in the combined cycle turbine space.

它们都宣布了适度的产能扩张。

They've all announced some modest expansion to their production.

这些扩张是否足以满足预期需求，目前尚不明确。

Whether it's gonna be enough to meet this projected demand is not clear yet.

看看制造燃气轮机和固体氧化物燃料电池的公司股价发生了什么变化，这些燃料电池可以消耗天然气并发电。

And look at what's happened to the stocks of companies that make gas turbines and solid oxide fuel cells, which can consume natural gas and create power.

这些股票的回报率极高，我们将其与各自的基准指数进行对比。

The returns on these stocks are are astronomical, and we compare them on the right to their respective home benchmarks.

再次强调，理解转型动态之所以如此重要，是因为它能帮助你理解围绕它的所有其他事情，特别是天然气设备的作用。

And, again, the, you know, the the reason why it's so important to understand the dynamics of the transition is it allows you to understand everything else around it and in particular, the the role of natural gas equipment.

那么，让我继续下一个话题。

And so let me go to the next one here.

今天Zoom会议真够折腾的。

Having a challenging Zoom day.

确实如此。

That's for sure.

当我们思考数据中心时，文章的第一部分也是最长的一部分就是关于数据中心的问题——它们对电力价格以及其他诸多方面的影响。

And when we think about data centers and and the first section in the piece and the longest one is on this whole question of data centers, what's their impact on power prices, and a bunch of other things.

但当你以ERCOT为例，看看那些大规模负荷并网申请时，这些数字简直令人震惊。

But the the numbers are just kind of staggering when you look at ERCOT as one example, and you look at large load interconnection requests.

这是个专业术语，指的是申请接入ERCOT电网的数据中心规模，这些都属于大负荷需求。

That's fancy language for the magnitude of data center requests, which are large loads to join the ERCOT grid.

几年前，这个数字是20吉瓦，而到2030年，他们预计会达到200吉瓦。

And, you know, a a couple of years ago, this was 20 gigawatts, and by 2030, they're expecting us 200.

对吧？

Right?

所以，这个需求增长了十倍。

So this is growing by a factor of 10.

PJM电网的情况也类似，那里是数据中心密集区。

Similar story in PJF, which is the Mid Atlantic grid where data center alley is.

从2022年2月到2025年，大规模负荷预测出现了爆炸式增长，这些就是那些试图接入电网的大型数据中心用户。

Again, from 02/2022 to 2025, you've had an explosion in large load forecasts, which are, you know, the the large data center users that that are trying to get access to the grid.

在PJM，你还面临另一个问题，很多人可能已经读到过，那就是容量价格正在飙升。

And then you have this extra thing in PJM, which a lot of you may have read about, where capacity prices are soaring.

可以把容量价格理解为特定电网支付给那些承诺在特定日期提供发电能力的供应商的保险费。

Think of capacity prices as as the way that particular grid pays insurance premiums to people who have generation capacity to commit to be available on the system on a given day.

这些成本正在转嫁到电力零售消费者身上。

And these are these costs are being passed through to retail consumers for electricity.

白宫曾与PJM各州的13位州长举行了一次会议。

The White House had a meeting with the 13 governors of the PJM states.

他们正试图敦促PJM强制数据中心参与竞标，使其全额支付并分摊其新建发电设备的成本。

They're trying to encourage PJM to force data centers to to engage in an auction where they fully pay and amortize down their new generation equipment.

因此，你可以明显感觉到，正在出现一股针对数据中心的反弹情绪。

So you you can kind of really sense that there's a little bit of a data center backlash going on.

大家都在努力思考这一切最终该如何买单。

Everybody's trying to figure out how this is all gonna get paid for.

这其中一个复杂的原因是，一些公用事业公司已经开始向数据中心收取特别附加费。

And one of the one of the reasons this is complicated is some utilities have begun charging data centers special surcharges.

它们仍然不够。

They're still not enough.

所以这里有一张图表。

So there's a chart in here.

我认为非常重要的是要理解，当你把基础电费加上特殊的数据中心附加费时，在许多情况下，仍然不足以支付新建发电设施的成本，无论你是谈论新建联合循环涡轮机，还是更昂贵的太阳能加储能组合方案——后者正被用作基荷电源。

I think it's very important to understand that when you take the base electricity cost and you add the special data center surcharge, in many cases, it's still not enough to pay the cost of new generation, whether you're talking about a new combined cycle turbine or or a more expensive solution, which is a solar storage combination that's being used as baseload power.

因此，正因为如此，现在数据中心开始考虑自建表后发电设施。

So and and because of that, now you have data centers thinking about building their own behind the meter generation.

但需要明确的是，目前这几乎从未发生过。

Now currently, to be clear, this is almost never happening.

对吧？

Right?

2025年，数据中心电力需求中不到1%来自现场发电，但这一趋势正在迅速推进。

Less than 1% of data center power demand in 2025 was based on on-site generation, but this is rapidly in the pipeline.

因此到2030年，我们可能会有30%到35%的数据中心电力需求由表后发电满足。

So by 2030, we could have somewhere between 3035% of all data center demand being sourced with behind the meter generation.

在电表后侧，你并不是在建造一个大型的、比如500兆瓦的联合循环涡轮机。

Now behind the meter, you're not building a large, you know, 500 megawatt combined cycle turbine.

你是在串联小型工业燃气轮机、燃料电池、往复式发动机，甚至一些经过改造的航空发动机——也就是航空衍生型燃气轮机。

You're stringing together smaller industrial gas turbines and fuel cells, reciprocating engines, and even some aeroderivative gas turbines, which have been essentially modified plane engines.

所以现在，所有这些都需要时间。

So now all these things take time.

对吧？

Right?

无论是十二个月、二十四个月、三十六个月，还是在大型联合循环涡轮机的情况下，需要五到七年。

Whether it's twelve months, twenty four months, thirty six months, six five to seven years in the case of the big combined cycle turbines.

但关键问题是，也是制约所有数据中心项目的主要因素，就是电力供应的获取。

But this is the big question is, and this is the limiting factor on all of this data center stuff is access to power.

有时候人们会问我，为什么数据中心不使用可再生能源进行电表后发电？

Now, you know, sometimes people ask me, why why don't renewables get used by data centers for behind the meter generation?

它们是可以的。

They can.

请记住，在整个数据中心的生命周期中，电力成本仅占总成本（包括资本支出、运营和维护以及燃料）的15%左右。

And remember, if you look over the lifetime of a data center, only 15% or so of the total cost of of the whole thing, you know, capital plus operating and maintenance and fuel is is is power.

因此，如果有一种电力解决方案成本高得多，一些超大规模企业可能还是会支付，因为这能让他们更快接入电网，或者出于品牌宣传，又或者出于其他任何原因。

So if there's a power solution that's a lot more expensive, some of the hyperscalers might just go and pay it because either because that it allows them to get hooked up sooner or virtue signaling or whatever their reasons happen to be.

但根据我们以及许多其他人所做的分析，这里有一个共同的发现：与天然气涡轮机相比，太阳能加电池加天然气备用的解决方案要昂贵得多。

But, you know, based on the the analysis that we've done and a lot and other people have done separately, there's a common finding here, which is compared to a natural gas turbine, a solar plus battery plus natural gas backup solution is a lot more expensive.

你可以从这张图表中看到，成本是原来的两倍或两倍半。

And you can see in this chart, it's either two or two and a half times the cost.

但同样，如果这只占数据中心总成本的15%，也许谷歌和其他一些公司愿意承担这笔费用。

But, again, if it's only 15% of the cost of the data center, maybe Google and some of the other companies pay it.

因此，数据中心问题的核心其实是美国能否跟上电力需求的增长速度。

And so that, you know, the the the data center question is really all about whether or not The US can keep pace with power demand.

从1950年到2000年，美国每年都在稳步增加发电能力，但新增电力的90%都来自大型燃煤、燃气和核电厂。

Now from 1950 to 2000, The US steadily added power generation capacity every single year, but 90% of all of the power that was added was very large coal, gas, and nuclear plants.

如今，这些类别新增装机容量的占比已几乎降至零，因为我们现在所处的世界中，新增容量主要来自可再生能源和储能，而且新增容量非常充足。

The share of new capacity additions coming from those categories has dropped almost to zero because we're now in a world where most of what's being added is is renewables and storage, and there's plenty of capacity being added.

问题是，这对消费者和电网究竟意味着什么？

The question is, what does it really mean for consumers and for the grid?

我在这篇文章中最喜欢的一张图表就是这张，因为去年美国确实新增了65吉瓦的储能和发电名义容量。

And one of my favorite charts in this in this piece is this one because, yes, The US added 65 gigawatts of new nameplate capacity in terms of storage and generation last year.

但如果我们按照NERC、FERC和ISOs所用的‘有效负载承载能力系数’来调整容量，考虑其间歇性和可靠性，这65吉瓦会迅速缩水为25吉瓦真实容量——这是一种专业术语，意思是电网新增的每兆瓦发电容量并不相同。

But if we adjust that capacity for its intermittency and its reliability, the same way that NERC and FERC and the ISOs do by using these things called effective load carrying capability factors, all of a sudden, that 65 gigawatts becomes 25 gigawatts real fast, which is a fancy jargony way of saying every megawatt of of generation capacity that's added to the grid is not the same.

新增一兆瓦煤电、气电或核电，与新增一兆瓦光伏，意义截然不同。

And adding a megawatt of coal or a megawatt of gas or a megawatt of nuclear means something very different than adding a megawatt of solar.

因此，这就是数据中心面临的核心问题。

So that's the big question on data centers.

第二个深入分析的主题是中国。

On we have a large the second big deep dive is on China.

这里就不展开所有细节了。

Not gonna go through all the details here.

关于中国，最重要的一点是，他们在太阳能、风能、电池和电动汽车方面产能巨大，且存在大量过剩产能，因此尽管许多从事这些业务的中国公司盈利状况极差，他们继续向全球倾销这些产品的可能性依然存在。

The most important point about China is they are producing so much in terms of solar, wind, batteries, and EVs and have so much spare capacity that, you know, the prospects of them continuing to flood the world with this stuff is is still out there despite the deeply negative profitability of a lot of the Chinese companies that are doing this.

如果你的立场是希望实现最快的能源转型，因为你关注的是脱碳和气候问题，那么这一切都是好消息。

Now if your perspective is one of you want the fastest energy transition possible because your focus is on decarbonization and climate issues, this is all great news.

对吧？

Right?

因为这里有一页数据显示，新兴市场和欧洲正在大力采购中国出口的太阳能电池板、电池和电动汽车。

Because we have a page in here that shows that the emerging world and Europe are aggressively hoovering up all of the of the solar panels, battery exports, and EVs that they can from China.

美国则不然，原因我们都清楚。

US, not so much for the reasons that we all know.

如果你是投资者，或者在其他国家经营生产这些产品的公司，那这就是个坏消息，因为中国企业仍在持续压缩整个行业的利润和价值。

If you're a prospective you're an investor or you run a company that makes this stuff in other countries, this is terrible news because the Chinese are continuing to compress margins and value across the board.

现在有很多关于核能和中国的讨论，而中国确实在核裂变的成本和建设速度方面已成为全球领导者。

Now there's a lot of discussion about nuclear and China, and certainly China is now the world's leader in terms of nuclear fission, in terms of cost, and speed.

但即使他们在2030年前完成所有在建的37吉瓦核电项目，其未来的核能发电量（以太瓦时计）仍将远低于如今的风能和太阳能，更远远落后于2030年中国风能和太阳能的发电量。

But even if they complete all 37 gigawatts they have under construction by 2030, their future generation in terms of terawatt hours of nuclear will still be way below even today's wind and solar and will be even further below the wind and solar generation that's taking place in in China in '2 in 2030.

所以，有时我觉得对中国核裂变的关注有点过度了。

So sometimes I think the focus on nuclear fission is a little bit too much in China.

这篇论文还涉及了中国在前沿水电技术方面的研究。

The paper also gets into Chinese research on on cutting edge hydro.

因此，他们正在开展大量聚变研究、钠离子电池以及其他相关领域的工作。

So a lot of fusion research they're doing, sodium ion batteries, and things like that.

但同样，这里有一个奇怪的动态。

But, again, here's here's the weird dynamic.

在全球所有太阳能公司中，中国公司的利润率普遍为负。

Of all of the solar companies in the world, the Chinese ones generally have deeply negative profit margins.

在其他国家，这种情况根本无法持续，但在中国，由于政策原因，它却可以存活。

And in any other country, this wouldn't survive, but in in China, for policy reasons, it can.

因此，我们可能会在未来几年继续面临可再生能源转型领域大量通缩和学习曲线带来的价格下跌。

And so we could be we could be facing another couple of years of lots of deflation and learning curve price declines taking place in a lot of renewable transition stuff.

正如大家所知，中国也因此主导了太阳能电池、电池、多晶硅、组件、磁体、硅片及其他所有相关产品的制造产能。

Now as everybody knows, China also, and for that reason, dominates manufacturing capacity in in solar cells and batteries and polysilicon and modules and magnets and wafers and everything else.

这就引出了一个问题：为什么美国正在采取这样的做法。

And this gets to this question about, like, why The US is doing what it's doing.

政府对中国目前在供应链上的主导地位感到非常担忧，担心西方国家要赶上有多困难。

The administration is very nervous about the supply chain dominance that China currently has, how hard it would be for western western nations to catch up.

我们几年前曾写过，几乎有一半的中国关键矿产活动处于无监管状态。

We wrote a couple of years ago about how almost half of all Chinese critical mineral activities are unregulated.

它们都是无监管的公司。

They're unregulated companies.

所以，我说，一家在中国受到监管的公司，可能也没遵守多少规则。

So, I mean, a regulated company in China probably doesn't even adhere to that many rules.

你能想象一家在中国的无监管公司会做些什么吗？

Can you imagine what an unregulated company in China would be doing?

因此，西方很难与之竞争，而美国当前的政府也非常不愿意大力推动那些会加深美国对中国依赖的可再生能源转型，原因你都能想象。

So it's very hard for the West to compete, and and The United States the current administration is very reluctant to put the pedal to the metal on a renewable transition that deepens US rely reliance on on China for all the reasons you can imagine.

我们这里有一张关于战略矿产的图表，非常惊人。

And this this we have a chart in here on strategic minerals specifically that's kind of amazing.

这张图表考察了25种重要的战略矿产，并为每一种标出了最主要的生产国。

So this chart looks at 20 the 25 important strategic minerals, and it plots for each one what country is the top producer.

除了一个例外，每一种矿物的头号生产国都是中国。

For every single one, except one, the top producer of China.

有时头号生产国占据90%的市场份额，有时则只有40%，但除了镍之外，中国在所有矿物中都是最大生产国，而镍的最大生产国是印度尼西亚。

Now sometimes the top producer has a 90% market share, and sometimes the top producer can have a 40% market share, but China is the top producer at every example except nickel for which the answer is Indonesia.

但同样重要的是，要理解为什么美国如此重视能源独立，而非气候变化。

So but, again, this it's important to understand why there's so much focus in The US on energy independence as opposed to climate.

这正是当前政府关注的重点。

That's what the current administration is focused on.

经过四十五年的努力，几年前美国终于成为化石燃料的净出口国，这个数据综合了石油、天然气和煤炭。

And after forty five years of trying, a couple of years ago, The US finally became a net exporter of fossil fuels, and that's a combined figure that looks at oil, gas, and coal.

与此同时，欧洲和中国仍在激烈竞争。

At the same time, Europe and China are continuing to slug it out.

它们各自进口的这类化石燃料净量大致相当。

Each of them is importing roughly the same net amount of of those kind of fossil fuels.

因此，这一届政府显然更加注重能源独立，并降低了以往政府所重视的其他一些议题的重要性。

So this administration is definitely focused a lot more on energy independence and and has downgraded the importance of some of the other things that we were used to in prior administrations.

好的。

Okay.

那我们来谈谈小型模块化反应堆吧。

So let's talk about SMRs, small modular reactors.

政府很喜欢这些。

The administration likes those.

他们大力支持这些项目，投资者也很喜欢。

They're they're putting a lot of support behind them, and the investors like them.

对吧？

Right?

去年，有两个不同的小型模块化反应堆指数表现非常出色。

The last year, there's two different SMR indices that did very well.

投资这类项目最好的时机是在项目尚未获得批准之前，因为市场情绪主要由传言和人们的看法驱动。

The the sweet spot for investing in a lot of these kinds of projects is before there's a proof state because the vibe and the, you know, the things people say is what drives investor sentiment.

当我们更接近了解这些项目实际成本以及谁愿意为此买单时，我认为市场将会变得动荡得多。

When we get closer to finding out how much these things are actually gonna cost and who's gonna be willing to pay for them, I think it's gonna be a much choppier market.

所以我不确定SMR投资者是否还能再次获得去年这些项目爆发时那样的收益。

So I'm not sure that SMR investors are ever gonna reap the gains they invested that they got last year when these things just took off.

我们先聊一会儿吧。

So let's just talk for a minute.

那么，SMR到底是什么？

What is an SMR anyway?

它是一种功率低于300兆瓦的反应堆。

Well, it's a it's a reactor less than 300 megawatts.

据称它是通过某种模块化和批量生产方式制造的，目前主要有四种类型正在开发中。

It's allegedly produced with some kind of modularity and serial production, and there's four main types being pursued.

你可以用已经存在了几十年的轻水反应堆技术建造一个小型版本，这种技术占现有核电厂的约90%，或者你可以建造一些新颖的类型，比如快中子反应堆、石墨慢化高温反应堆或熔盐反应堆。

You can build a small version of a light water reactor using the same technology that's existed for decades and represents around 90% of the existing nuclear fleet, or you can build some newfangled thing, a fast neutron reactor, a a graphite moderated high temperature reactor, a molten salt reactor.

关于这些反应堆，重要的是要知道，它们目前仍处于首个示范机组审批的过程中。

The important thing to know about these is they're still in the process of having their their first of a kind plants approved.

美国核管理委员会（NRC）刚刚批准了TerraPower的项目，这是一个钠冷快中子反应堆，搭配熔盐储能系统。

The NRC, the nuclear nuclear regulatory commission in The US just approved the TerraPower one, which is sodium cooled fast reactor combined with molten storage molten salt energy storage.

而高温气冷堆，美国核管理委员会目前正在审查其最终许可证。

And and then the high temperature gas cooled reactor, the NRC is in the process of reviewing the final license.

这就是SMR的含义。

So that's what SMRs are.

它们体积小。

They can they're small.

它们可以基于旧技术，也可以基于一些仍需获得许可和批准的新技术。

They can be based on old technology, or they can be based on some kind of new technology that still has to be licensed and approved.

我所担心的是，能源投资者和能源政策制定者对学习曲线过于着迷，而太阳能、风能和电池价格因产量增加而出现的下降曲线确实令人惊叹。

The issue that I have is energy investors and energy policy people are infatuated with learning curves, and it is amazing to see the learning curve of solar, wind, and battery prices with the benefit of increased production.

你确实见证了极其陡峭的学习曲线，而现在这些曲线甚至扩展到了海上风电。

You you really have had some incredibly steep learning curves, and now those learning curves are even extending to offshore wind.

如果你真的相信学习曲线，那么你应当关注上世纪五十年代核能的学习曲线——当时人们最初建造的是50到100兆瓦的反应堆，后来发现固定成本过于高昂，于是转而建造1000兆瓦级别的大型电站。

If you really believe learning curves, I think you need to pay attention to the nuclear learning curve that took place in the nineteen fifties when people started out building 50 to a 100 megawatt plants and then found that the fixed costs were so enormous that they moved from 50 to a 100 megawatts to a thousand megawatts per gigawatt.

在我看来，SMR试图从已经取得的经验中倒退回去。

And SMRs to me is trying to crawl back down the learning curve from what used to be learned.

所以我认为，你这是逆流而上，试图对这种具有极高固定成本的事物进行模块化。

So I think you're swimming upstream here to try to modularize something that has such embedded high fixed costs.

因此，我有点持怀疑态度。

And so I'm I'm a little bit of a skeptic.

但让我们先定义什么是怀疑，以及什么是成功。

So but let's define what skepticism means, and let's define what success would be.

在我们做出的各种不同假设下，联合循环燃气电厂的平准化成本大约在每兆瓦时55到85美元之间。

So the levelized cost of a combined cycle gas plant under a whole bunch of different assumptions that we make is somewhere between 55 and $85 a megawatt hour.

不同的利用率、不同的天然气价格，诸如此类。

You'll different utilization rates, different natural gas prices, you know, whatever.

所以是55到85美元。

So 55 to 85.

我认为，如果一个小型模块化反应堆如今能以每兆瓦时125到130美元的成本投入运行，那就是一个胜利，因为这意味着你获得了基荷电力、更低的碳强度等等。

I would say that if a small modular reactor ever came in in today's dollars at a 125 to 130, that's a win because now you're talking about baseload power, lower carbon intensity, etcetera.

问题是，除了那些正在建造它们的公司之外，我找不到任何人相信他们能做到这一点。

The problem is I I can't find anybody except for the companies building them that thinks they're gonna be able to do that.

美国核管理委员会前主席估计，首座小型模块化反应堆的成本为每兆瓦时200至400美元。

The former chair of the NRC is estimating first of a kind SMR costs of 200 to $400 megawatt hour.

田纳西河流域管理局去年进行了自己的分析，结果约为每兆瓦时200美元。

The Tennessee Valley Authority did their own analysis last year, came out to about 200 megawatt dollar megawatt hour.

一些为我们的企业客户准备的研究，专门针对用户侧的电力需求。

Studies prepared for some of our corporate clients for them specifically for behind the meter stuff.

小型模块化反应堆的成本是电网电力的2.5到5倍。

SMRs, two and a half to five times the cost of grid based electricity.

即使在中国——几乎所有的项目都实现了模块化——几年前也承认，小型模块化反应堆的成本将大约是其现有大型核电站的两倍。

And so and even in China, which is modularized almost everything, conceded a couple of years ago that the SMR costs are gonna be roughly double the large plants that it's already building.

因此，我对这一点持怀疑态度。

So I'm I'm dubious about this.

我认为，真正的证据仍然有待验证。

I think the proof statement is still out there.

此外，我还有另一个问题。

And then I have another issue as well.

当你思考小型模块化反应堆时，它的基本前提是什么？

When you think about how SMRs what's the premise of an SMR?

对吧？

Right?

有时候它涉及新技术。

Sometimes it's got new technology.

有时候则没有。

Sometimes it doesn't.

但小型模块化反应堆的基本前提是你可以更便宜地建造它。

But the the premise of an SMR is that you can build it more cheaply.

想想你自己在资本项目方面的经验。

Think about your own life experiences of capital projects.

你如何让一个资本项目更便宜？

How do you make a capital project cheap?

如果你能像制造移动房屋那样大规模生产它们，或者让你的单位成本降下来。

Now if you can mass produce them like mobile homes or can they or you can bring your unit cost down.

这并不是我们在这里讨论的内容。

That's not what we're talking about here.

对吧？

Right?

当你打算建造10个而不是3个的时候，你如何真正降低单个单位的成本？

How do you actually reduce the unit cost of something when you're gonna build 10 of them instead of three of them?

我不认为这种学习曲线是自动实现的。

I don't think that that learning curve is an automatic.

我认为你必须降低电厂本身运营成本，才能让它更便宜。

I think you have to bring down the costs of care functions of the plant itself to make it cheaper.

这让我感到担忧。

And that's what makes me nervous.

因为关于监管SMR的政府机构职责分配已经发生了一些变化，特朗普政府已将更多责任从独立科学机构转移到了管理和预算办公室（OMB）。

And because there have been some changes in terms of the oversight of which government agencies are overseeing SMRs, and the Trump administration has now moved more of that responsibility under the OMB and away from independent scientific agencies.

而我更广泛的问题是，当你思考公共健康与安全、能源以及更广泛的科学问题时。

And the broader question I have is, if you think about issues related to public health and safety, energy, and science more broadly.

这一届政府一直在削弱这些职能。

This administration has been gutting those functions.

当你具体查看科学机构的独立联邦咨询委员会时，他们在去年前六个月就取消了超过四分之一的委员会。

And when you look at specifically at the independent federal advisory committees at science agencies, They've eliminated they eliminated a little more than a quarter of them just in the first six months of last year.

所以我的问题是，一个正在削弱负责公共卫生、安全、科学和能源的机构的政府，是否适合监督和负责SMR发展中的决策，尤其是在出错后果严重的情况下。

So my question is, is an administration that's gutting agencies that are responsible for public health, safety, science, and energy the right administration to be overseeing and responsible for, you know, in an oversight matter, the kind of choices that are made for SMR developments given the consequences if something goes wrong.

这就是我的问题。

So that's my question.

我不知道是否有答案，但这就是我的疑问。

And I don't know that there's an answer to it, but that's my question.

好的。

Okay.

除了SMR之外，这一届政府对地热能也非常乐观。

Another in addition to SMRs, the administration is also very optimistic about geothermal.

好的。

Okay.

地热是个很特别的东西。

Geothermal is a weird thing.

它已经存在很久了。

It's been around forever.

对吧？

Right?

它已经存在很长时间了。

It's been around for a long time.

目前存在的地热能中，80%用于供热。

80% of geothermal that exists is used for heat.

只有20%用于发电。

Only 20% of it's used for power generation.

要产生电力而不是供热，你需要钻得更深以获得足够的温度梯度差。

You have to go deeper for the kind of temperature gradient differentials to create power instead of heat.

而且你查看的大多数能源数据库甚至都不单独列出地热能。

And most energy databases that you look at don't even list out geothermal separately.

它被归入风筝能源、波浪能源、仓鼠轮子之类的其他东西里。

It gets lumped in with kite energy, wave energy, you know, hamster wheels, and the other kinds of things like that.

如果你面前有一张图表，就像我现在展示的那样，比较地热能与风能和太阳能，你根本看不到地热能。

And if you if you if you have a chart in front of you like the one I'm showing now that looks at geothermal power compared to wind and solar, you can't even see the geothermal.

它太小了。

It's so small.

现在地热能正经历一点复兴。

Now there's a little bit of a renaissance in geothermal.

落基山国家实验室，你可能不熟悉它。

The National Laboratory of the Rockies, you may not be familiar with it.

它以前我们叫它NREL，国家可再生能源实验室。

It's kind of the it we used to call it NREL, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

这类机构都重新命名了，就像那个什么‘美洲湾’一样。

These kinds of things are were rebranded along with the the the Gulf Of America or whatever the hell it is.

根据这个NREL的数据，地热能，特别是增强型地热能的平准化成本正在下降。

According to this NREL, levelized cost for geothermal, particularly enhanced geothermal, are coming down.

增强型地热是指使用水力压裂技术进行地热开发，就像开采天然气那样。

Enhanced geothermal is referring to when you're using fracking techniques to do geothermal the same way that you would for for natural gas extraction.

咱们走着瞧吧。

You know, we'll see.

好消息是，钻井成本正在下降，钻井速度正在提升。

The good news is it looks like drilling costs are going down and drilling speeds are going up.

从2017年到2023年，该行业已将钻一口约10,000英尺深井所需的时间缩短了三分之二，并正逐步达到石油天然气行业的标准。

Just from 2017 to 2023, the industry has has shortened by a factor of three the time it takes to to drill a well of, you know, let's say, 10,000 feet and and is approaching the standards used in the oil and gas business.

因此这里有一些优势，但地热能仍然是一个相当复杂的技术。

So there are some benefits there, but geothermal is still a pretty complicated thing.

而最终，电力市场是一个竞争非常激烈的市场。

And ultimately, power is a very competitive market.

地热能终将有机会参与竞争。

And if and geothermal will get its chance to compete.

已经签署了一批购电协议（PPA）。

There's been a handful of of PPAs, which are price agreements signed.

在2024年和2025年，它们的电价比风电和太阳能的购电协议高出每兆瓦时20到25美元，因此更昂贵。

In 2024 and '25, they were they were 20 to $25 a megawatt hour higher than than winded solar PPA, so they're more expensive.

但它们终将有机会参与竞争。

But they're gonna get their chance to compete.

我不确定它的可扩展性如何，但我们拭目以待。

I'm not sure how scalable it is, but we'll see.

我们有一节关于地热能的内容，详细介绍了你可能想了解的所有内容，包括温度梯度、标准的二元闪蒸地热和增强型地热，以及所有这些相关技术。

So and we have a the the piece that we the section that we have on geothermal walks through all the details of everything you'd wanna know about temperature gradients and standard binary flash geothermal and enhanced geothermal and all those kinds of things.

好的。

Okay.

我很快就要结束了。

I am going to wrap up soon.

哦，我觉得这相当惊人。

Oh, I thought this was kind of amazing.

为什么在电动汽车行业赚钱这么难？

Why is it so hard to make money in the EV business?

有很多不同的公司生产电动汽车。

There's a bunch of different companies that make EVs.

其中一些是纯电动汽车公司，而另一些是像丰田和通用这样的多元化公司，它们拥有电动汽车部门。

Some of them are pure play companies, and some of them are diversified companies like Toyota and GM and have EV segments.

因此，我们追踪纯电动汽车公司的运营利润率，以及多元化公司内部的电动汽车部门的利润率。

So we track down the operating margin of the pure play companies and the individual EV segments inside diversified companies.

对于电动汽车公司而言，只有中国公司和特斯拉盈利，其余所有公司都亏损。

And for just for EV companies, Chinese and Tesla are profitable, and the rest of them all of the real domain.

这对投资者来说是个问题。

Goes for investors.

如果你看右边的图表，投资电动汽车指数的投资者表现远不如投资传统汽车行业。

If you look at the chart on the right, investors investing in a in an EV index have done much worse than just investing in the regular auto industry.

这种情况会改变吗？

Will this change?

我不知道。

I I don't know.

随着时间推移，我读到的全是Stellantis、通用和福特不断计提的减值损失。这些公司中的一些正在重新阐述他们的核心理念，也就是我们正在回归客户偏好——这其实是一种委婉的说法，意思是我们会生产人们真正想买的东西，而不是政府规定我们该生产的东西。

Old I as the days go by, all I read about is more write offs from Stellantis and GM and Ford, And and some of those companies are kind of restating their core principles, which is we're we're moving back to customer preference, which is a euphemism for we're gonna build what people wanna buy rather than what the government mandates imply that we should build.

总之，这就是电动车领域正在发生的事。

Anyway, that's that's what's going on in the EV space.

书的最后有大约25页的核心图表部分，反复展示了关于电动车、可再生能源、电网、能源存储、化石燃料、液化天然气、能源依赖、核能、碳捕集与储存、氢能、可持续燃料等所有相关主题的图表。

There's there's an essential chart section in the back, about 25 pages, and it just charts and charts and charts and charts on all these different topics about EVs and renewables and the grid and energy storage and fossil fuels and LNG and energy dependence, nuclear carbon capture storage, hydrogen, sustainable fuels, everything.

所以我只想向你们展示其中的几部分内容。

So I just wanna show you a couple of things in there.

我们的一项工作是追踪电网情况，而美国政府也一直大力强调要打破基础设施瓶颈，特别是电力传输网络、液体管道和天然气管道。

One of the things we do is we track the grid, and the the administration is also in The US talked a lot about wanting to break the logjam on infrastructure, and specifically that would be the electricity grid, liquids pipelines, and gas pipelines.

如果他们能在上述三项中的任何一项上取得实质进展，我会非常惊讶，因为美国的建设受到地方、州、区域和联邦各级复杂规则的重重制约，极其难以推进。

And and if they can get anything done on on either one of those three, I'd be impressed because it's it's a very complex maze of of local, state, regional, and federal rules that make it very difficult to build in The US.

截至去年年中，输电线路的增长，尤其是电压超过345千伏的高压线路，进展甚微。

As things stood at the end of at the middle of the end of last year, the the there hasn't been that much progress on transmission line growth, particularly the high voltage stuff over 345 kilovolts.

所以我们拭目以待，看看情况是否会好转。

So we'll see if that picks up.

这里值得注意的是，页面底部显示的内容：负责监管电网的MILK会计算一种称为预期备用裕度的指标。

What's notable here that we show on the bottom of the page, milk, which oversees the grid, computes these things called anticipated reserve margins.

这是他们衡量全国不同地区电网安全缓冲程度的方式，依据是正在建设的产能和正在退役的产能类型。

And it's their way of saying how much safety buffer is built into the grids in different parts of the country based on the kind of capacity they're building and the kind of capacity that they're retiring.

你可以看到，PJM（中大西洋地区）和MISO（中西部地区）的电网都出现了轻微的红色警报，因为新增产能的可靠性与退役产能之间存在失衡。

And you can see that there's a little bit of a five alarm fire in both PJM, which is Mid Atlantic, and MISO, which is the Midwest grids because of the balance between what's in terms of the reliability of what's being added versus what's being retired.

因此，许多区域ISO正在努力，推迟某些退役计划等事项，但关于这个问题的讨论还远未结束。

And so a lot of the a lot of the regional ISOs are kind of struggling, delaying certain decommissions and things like that, but you haven't heard the last on this one.

如果认为更多基础设施是好事，那么管道方面的亮点在于，新建天然气管道产能似乎正在取得一些进展。

And the bright spot in terms of pipelines, if if you view more infrastructure as a better thing, is it looks like there's some progress coming on new natural gas pipeline capacity.

其中大部分与液化天然气出口相关，目的是将天然气从一些产区输送到东南部的出口区域，但仅限于此。

A lot of it is linked to the LNG exports to get gas out of some of the basins and towards the export area in the Southeast, but that's about it.

我原本想用什么来收尾呢？

What did I want to wrap up with?

让我简单总结一下几点。

Let me just wrap up with a couple of things here.

第一，有一个名为潜在天然气委员会的机构，每隔几年会发布经批准的、被视为商业可行且在现有技术条件下可开采的储量。

One, there's something called the potential gas committee and they every few years, publish what are approved reserves, right, that are considered commercially viable and under existing technology.

那么，什么是潜在资源呢？

But what are potential resources?

正如你在这里所见，这些数据往往会随着时间推移而上升。

And as you can see here, these things tend to rise over time.

美国的天然气供应正在蓬勃发展，并可能继续增长。

The the The US natural gas supply is is booming and may continue to boom.

其他国家也在经历同样的情况，因此投资者必须对此保持警惕，因为自LNG市场变得重要以来，我们首次面临利用率下降的时期——这意味着全球LNG进口量将增加，但各国的出口能力增长得更快。

It's doing the same in other countries, and so therefore, for investors, have to watch out for this because for the first time really since the LNG market became an important thing, we're facing a period of declining utilization rates, which is a way of saying LNG imports around the world are gonna go up, but the capacity for people to export to them is gonna go up even faster.

到本世纪末，预计将出现供过于求的局面，这将使利用率降至前所未有的低水平。

So by the end of the decade, there's a there's a glut predicted that would that'll drive some of the utilization rates down to levels that we haven't seen before.

最后一个话题，然后我就放你们走：过去十年左右，每年绿色科技媒体、落基山研究所、某些投资者会议，以及高盛的碳经济学系列等乐观的卖方报告，都对碳捕集、绿氢、可持续航运燃料、可持续航空燃料和可持续车用燃料持非常乐观的态度。

And then last topic, and then I'll let you go, is, you know, for the for the last ten years or so, every year, you know, green tech media, you know, Rocky Mountain Institute, certain investor conferences, very kind of optimistic sell side reports, particularly from from from Goldman's carbonomics series are often very optimistic on carbon capture, green hydrogen, sustainable shipping fuels, sustainable aviation fuels, sustainable motor fuels.

我所能告诉你们的是，在这项研究和我们这份市场能源报告的历史中，我们始终优先关注热力学、化学和地质学，其次才是市场因素。

All I can tell you is that in the history of this effort, this eye on the market energy paper, we we focus on the thermodynamics and the chemistry and the geology first and the market second.

这帮助我们在许多方面避免将资本投入没有意义的项目。

And that's helped us in so many ways avoid allocating capital to things that don't make sense.

让我给你看一下这张关于航运燃料的图表。

And let me just show you this chart on shipping fuels.

航运燃料有一些替代方案。

So there's, there's some alternative to shipping fuels.

对吧？

Right?

一种是继续以传统方式生产，然后加装碳捕集装置。

One is just continuing to produce them the way that you do and then bolting carbon capture on.

但其他解决方案包括所谓的电子氨和电子甲醇，这些方案需要获取二氧化碳，并通过电解等方式与绿氢结合，等等。

But the other solutions are things called e ammonia and e methanol that, you know, involve getting ahold of some c o two and combining it with gene hydro you know, green hydrogen through electrolysis and etcetera, etcetera.

这些成本比传统燃料成本高出几个数量级。

The costs are astronomically multiples of magnitude higher than traditional field costs.

成本差距如此之大，以至于很难想象需要多高的碳税才能让买家在两者之间无差别选择。

And it's so much higher that it it's hard to kind of envision the kind of carbon tax that would be necessary to equilibrate and make a purchaser indifferent between those two.

看看这篇报道中的图表，对比一下对可持续航空燃料的原始预测与实际结果，你会发现两者之间的差距大得惊人。

And look at the chart in the piece that shows the the original projections for sustainable aviation fuel and and what they've actually turned out to be, one of the biggest gaps you'd ever see.

我们总是会谈到另一个我最喜欢的图表：历史上学术论文发表数量与实际捕获的二氧化碳百万吨数之间的比例，这是最高的。

And then we always talk about I another one of my favorite charts is the highest ratio in the history of science is the ratio of academic papers published on carbon capture divided by the actual amount of megatons of carbon capture taking place.

再举一个例子，说明你必须关注细节。

And, you know, here's here's another one last example of of how you kinda have to pay attention to the details.

最近几个月，中国推出一艘电池电动集装箱船，引起了轰动。

There was a was a splash recently over the last couple months about China introducing a a an battery electric containership.

是的。

Yep.

好的。

Okay.

他们确实做到了。

They did.

它能装载740个TEU，也就是20英尺标准集装箱当量单位。

It it carries 740 TEUs, which are 20 those those TEUs equivalent units.

这是一艘非常非常小的集装箱船。

And that's a very, very, very small containership.

事实上，低于3000 TEU的集装箱船是最小的类别，甚至都很少被统计。

As a matter of fact, below 3,000 TEUs is the smallest category of containership that even gets tracked.

大多数实际使用的集装箱船都要大得多。

The most of them that are used are much, much bigger than that.

问题在于容积密度。

And the issue is volumetric density.

电池占据多少重量和多少体积？

How much weight and how much volume do batteries take?

我想展示的最后一张图表考察了体积能量密度。

And the last chart I wanna show you looks at the volumetric energy density.

也就是说，每升体积空间能容纳多少兆焦耳的能量？

Like, how much how much density can you fit in terms of megajoules of energy for a liter of volumetric space?

对于柴油发动机推进系统来说，其能量密度是电池电动推进系统的13到14倍，即使考虑到电动电池的效率要高得多。

And for a diesel engine propulsion system, you're talking about something that's 13 to 14 times higher than the battery electric propulsion system even when accounting for the fact that electric batteries are much more efficient.

你知道吧？

You know?

我们姑且称之为80%，相比之下内燃机的效率只有20%。

A let's call it 80% compared to the 20% efficiency of an internal combustion engine.

即便如此，你还是会看到能量密度相差13到14倍。

Even with that, you're looking at energy density that's 13 to 14 times different.

所以，再次说明，关注细节对于理解事物的可行性、以及哪些领域可能存在投资机会、哪些领域可能没有，是非常重要的。

So again, another example of where, you know, focusing on the details is important to understand the feasibility of things and where might there be investment opportunities and where they might not be.

好的。

Alright.

非常感谢大家的聆听，如果你还在听的话。

Thank you all very much for listening if you're still here.

因此，这篇论文已经发布了。

Hence, the image paper is out.

我们为部分人准备了纸质版，只需联系你们的负责团队，就可以领取一份。

We have hard copies for for some of you just reach out to your coverage teams and and you can get one.

谢谢收听。

And thanks for listening.

我很快会回来和你们聊聊，也许会轻松一下，逐一回应上周在Substack上疯传的那封题为‘AI将成为吞噬世界的黑洞’的邮件中的各种反驳观点。

And I will be back to talk to you soon, maybe to have some fun and walk through all of the different rebuttals to the to the AI is going to be a black hole that destroys the world email that went viral last week on Substack.

谢谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

再见。

Bye.

《市场眼》为经济、时事、市场和投资组合提供了独特的视角，由摩根大通资产与财富管理公司制作。

Michael eye on the market offers a unique perspective on the economy, current events, markets, and investment portfolios, and is a production of JPMorgan Asset and Wealth Management.

迈克尔·森布雷斯特是摩根大通资产管理公司市场与投资策略主席，也是我们最著名且最具争议的演讲者之一。

Michael Semblest is the chairman of market and investment strategy for JPMorgan Asset Management and is one of our most renowned and provocative speakers.

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For more information, please subscribe to the Eye on the Market by contacting your JPMorgan representative.

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If you would like to hear more, please explore episodes on iTunes or on our website.