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大家好，欢迎收看另一期《金融科技聚焦》节目，我是托比·巴布。
Hello and welcome to another episode of FinTech Focus TV with me Toby Babb.
有一位熟悉的嘉宾重返节目。
There is a delightful returner to the show.
我想是马克吧，你是自2020年以来每年都会出现在节目中的唯一一人。
Think it's the, Mark, you're the only person I think who's been in it every single year since 2020.
所以每次你回到节目里都让我非常开心。
So it's always a pleasure to have you back on the show.
女士们、先生们，欢迎来自Illuminate Financial的马克·比斯顿。
Ladies and gentlemen, Mark Beeston of Illuminate Financial.
你最近怎么样？
How are you?
我非常好。
I'm very good.
谢谢。
Thank you.
谢谢您邀请我再次回来。
Thank you for having me back.
总有一天你会从我这里听到一些靠谱的话。
One day you'll get something sensible out of me.
我太喜欢这个了。
I love this.
我的意思是，当你谈到这一点时，今天早上我走路去上班的路上也在想，我记得2020年的时候，你谈论的是云采用之类的事情，说那是给火堆添的汽油。
I mean, when you're talking about that, I was thinking about it on my walk in this morning to work, and I was thinking about the sound bites going all the way back to, if you remember 2020, you were talking about cloud adoption and everything like that, and this being the petrol on the bonfire.
我认为新冠疫情才是金融市场上云采用的那桶汽油。
I think COVID was the petrol on the bonfire of cloud adoption in the financial markets.
那是你第一次给我的说法。
That was the first one you gave me.
去年，我们会大量谈到这个话题，我发现自己在去年的各个阶段不断重复着‘从寒冬到早春’这句话。
Last year, and we're going to talk about this a lot, it was the winter to winter spring that I found myself parroting back at various stages last year.
所以我一直在等着你每年都会给我的那种点睛之笔，这总是让我非常开心，因为说实话，我认识你很久了。
So I'm waiting for that sort of drop moment that you give me every single year to do this, and it is always a great pleasure because, look, I've known you a long time.
我觉得有些人对此很感兴趣，是的，你对我们所处的市场和行业有着出色的全景视角，能从你独特的视角看到这个领域正在发生什么，总是很有趣。
I think there's some interest, yeah, you've got a fantastic overview of the market and the industry that we work in, And it's always interesting just to see what's happening in the space from your privileged viewpoint.
我觉得你对市场动态、未来走向以及你们所做的事情都有非常清晰的把握，Illuminate 一直在不断壮大。
I think you have a really good oversight of what's happening in the marketplace and where it goes and what you guys are doing, and Illuminate just goes from strength to strength.
所以可能有些人还没看过我们之前的几次对话。
So some people out there might not have seen our last couple of conversations.
对于那些没有躲起来的人，能不能简单介绍一下 Mark Beeston 和 Illuminate Financial？
So for those who haven't been hiding away, just give us a brief overview of Mark Beeston and Illuminate Financial.
我会说的，但在开始之前我得先忍住别笑。
I'll do that, but I've got to stop myself smiling before we start.
当你提到风险寒冬到风险春天时，我今天人在曼哈顿，正看着窗外。
When you say venture winter to venture spring, I'm in Manhattan today, and I'm looking out the window.
今天早上我坐地铁去了世界贸易中心。
And I I got the subway to World Trade this morning.
离我们办公室只有五个街区。
It's five blocks from our office.
等我到办公室时，今天早上确实非常寒冷。
By the time I got to our office, I it's it's very definitely this was very wintery this morning.
这毫无疑问。
That's for sure.
顺便说一下，这段录像拍摄于2026年那场大暴风雪之后不久。
It's being filmed right right after the big blizzard of twenty twenty six for the record.
听说我飞过去那天周日还有一场暴风雪要来。
Well, we've got another one coming up on Sunday just as I fly in, I hear.
所以我正看着你身后，看到你穿着 Polo 衫，背后阳光明媚，我不禁想：天啊。
So so I'm just looking behind you and being very hopeful as I see you in a polo shirt with bright sunshine behind, and now I'm thinking, god.
我希望自己也能在那里。
What am I hopefully, I'll be out there.
所以我可能会在那儿碰到你。
So I I may well bump into you
接下来，你知道吗？
next You know what?
虽然阳光明媚，但今天早上我离家时气温只有零下十五摄氏度。
It might be bright sunshine, but it was five Fahrenheit when I left my house this morning.
请记住这一点。
Have that have that in mind.
总之。
Anyway.
所以我想刚才好像提到了一个问题。
So I think there was a question in there right.
在某个地方它
Was somewhere it
我介绍了Illuminate，也自我介绍一下。我十二年前创办了Illuminate Financial Management，这是一家主要专注于机构金融服务技术的风险投资公司。
introduced Illuminate and introduce myself right so so Illuminate Financial Management business that I set up twelve years ago that was basically set up as venture capital business to focus on institutional financial services technology.
我本人有资本市场背景，曾在德意志银行工作了十三年，负责固定收益衍生品交易，担任过高级首席运营官。正是在那里，我通过参与一些联盟董事会首次接触到了金融科技。
I have a capital markets background myself, having spent thirteen years at Deutsche Bank on the fixed income derivative trading side, senior COO roles there, which was my first exposure to financial technology through the consortia board seats that you end up sat on.
离开德意志银行后，我加入了名为CreditX的经纪公司，当时TA Associates刚刚投资了这家公司，这让我首次接触到了金融科技领域的财务赞助方。
Left Deutsche, joined the Xco of an interdealer broker called CreditX at the same time that TA Associates invested in them, becoming my first exposure to the financial sponsor side of of of FinTech.
我们为他们打造了交易后处理业务，学到了一些经验，这些经验我们后来完全复制到了Illuminate的模式中。
Built a post trade processing business for them, learned a few lessons, you know, which we've really replicated in the Illuminate model.
当我们在2009年2月将这家业务出售给洲际交易所后，我去了ICAP，担任执行官并负责交易后和信息服务业务，这项业务占公司利润的约35%。我还为其设立了风险投资部门，直到2014年离开，创立了Illuminate。
And when we sold that business to Intercontinental Exchange in 02/09, I then went to ICAP, where I was also on the XCO and ran the post trade and information services business, which was about 35% of the bottom line, set up their venture capital business and left in 2014 to set up Illuminate.
今天在这里，Illuminate全球共有约24名员工，由我的合伙人管理。
As we sit here today, Illuminate is about 24 people around the globe run by my partners.
我们这里的每一位合伙人，五个人已经一起合作了十多年。
All the partners here, there's five of us have worked together now for over ten years.
因此，我们以合伙人为导向，总部设在伦敦，在纽约和新加坡也设有重要业务中心和关系中心，纽约是我们主要的交易与关系枢纽。
So we are partner led out of our London headquarters, New York, which is a major deal center and relationship center for us, and Singapore.
我们的模式非常注重与行业合作。
Our model is very much to partner with the industry.
我们拥有十几家所谓的战略有限合伙人，包括全球最大的交易所集团、最大的投资银行以及其他金融机构。
We have a dozen, what we call strategic LPs, some of the largest exchange groups in the world, some of the largest investment banks in the world and or banks in the world and others.
我们目前管理着四只基金：三只专注于A轮的风险投资基金，并于2024年前后推出了第一只专注于B轮的投资基金，目前正在积极布局这些领域。
And we have four funds, three series a focused ventures funds and launched our first series B focused fund towards the 2024 and are deploying, you know, deploying across that.
所以我想这就是快速版了。
So I guess that's the that's the rapid version.
这么快啊，这就是电梯演讲了。
So rapid that's the elevator pitch.
而且，正如我所说，我们已经取得了不少成功。
So so and it's been a it's you know, as I said, there's been a number of different successes.
我提到过，最近关于Illuminate的新闻很多。
I mentioned that there's been a lot of news around Illuminate.
过去一年左右，它似乎一直出现在我的信息流里。
It seems to be constantly on my feed over the last year or so.
我相信，去年投资组合里有七次退出。
Seven exits, I believe, last year at the portfolio.
确实如此，确实如此。
Remarkably yes, remarkably yes.
我想我们现在已经投资了52家，也许53家公司，并且已经退出了13家。
I think we've made 52, maybe 53 investments now and we've exited 13 of them.
太棒了。
Fantastic.
对。
Yeah.
非常好，是的，我以前也说过，我们并不想一味奉承。
So good, so yeah, and I've said it you before, we're wishing to be sycophantic.
我认为确实如此，很少有失败的案例进入这个领域，而在一个失败案例层出不穷的世界里，我觉得我能理解，而且我经常与投资组合中的公司交流，我感受到你们在与这些公司合作时，真正存在一种平等、信念和共同的价值观。
I think it's a Yeah, there's not very many misses that come into this, and in a world where there is an awful lot of those coming through, I think something which I get, and obviously I speak to a lot of the companies who are in the portfolio, I feel like there's a real equity and belief and shared values in terms of what you're doing with the companies that you generally tend to work for.
我想我看过一些数据，关于你们多年来考察过的公司数量，已经达到数千家了吧？
I think I saw numbers about the number of different companies you've looked at over the years, which scans into the thousands, doesn't it?
所以现在你们已经考察了大约一千家。
So when you're about thousand at this point.
这是惊人的数字。
It's it's phenomenal numbers.
当你们谈到这53家左右的公司时，显然背后投入了大量的尽职调查，以确保选对了公司，而目前看来，这对你们和这些公司来说都取得了非常好的成效。
And when you're talking about sort of 53 of those, there's obviously a bit of, you know, due diligence that goes into making sure they're the right ones, and that seems to be playing out very nicely for for you and them at the moment.
我们一直都在做不签下披头士这样的生意。
We're always in the business of not signing the Beatles.
对吧？
Right?
就像，我们从一万家中选出53家，并不总意味着选中的就是最对的那53家。
Like, just because we choose 53 from 10,000 doesn't always mean they're the right 53.
只要对的多于错的，我认为我们最终就能处于不错的位置。
As long as more of them are right than wrong, then then I think we end up in good shape.
完全正确，完全正确。
Absolutely right, absolutely right.
让我们回到你去年说的那句话，我记得你提到过‘从冒险的冬天到风险的春天’。
So let's shoot back to that sort of comment that you made last year, my sort of hang on to line from it all of adventure winter to venture spring.
自从那句话说出一年后，从我看到的情况来看，市场似乎正从一切困境中略有复苏。
Fast forward twelve months from when that statement was made, it feels like the market is recovering slightly from everything that I'm seeing.
即使宏观层面的波动依然存在，但信心确实有了一点提升。
There's a little bit more confidence even if there is volatility on a macro level that continues to stay.
过去五六年来，这不一直是常态吗？
That's the constant over the last five, six years, isn't it?
所以我觉得，人们正在逐渐适应这一点，理解它，并意识到必须继续前进。
So it feels to me that people are sort of adapting to that, understanding that, and sort of realizing there's a necessity to press on.
我们看到利率略有下降，市场信心也在回升，但我们现在是春天、冬天还是夏天？
We've seen interest rates drop a little bit, more confidence coming back into the marketplace, but are we spring, winter, summer?
从季节的角度来看，我们现在处于哪个阶段？再次问你，
Where are we at season wise Again, in your
看看窗外。
looks out the window.
我认为在风投领域，这绝对是春天的后半段，嗯。
I think in venture terms, it is definitely the later part of spring, Mhmm.
但我觉得，你知道，这个周末我和妻子在佛罗里达时，我们聊了天气。
But I think, you know, and, you know, I was down in Florida with my wife this weekend and we were talking about the weather.
对吧？
Right?
你知道吗，佛罗里达那会儿很冷。
You know, it was cold in Florida.
对吧？
Right?
但即使在最冷的时候，温度也只是刚到冰点。
But it was, like, at its coldest, it got to freezing.
就像今天早上这里只有零下15摄氏度。
Right like here this morning it's five degrees Fahrenheit.
我简直无法想象那在摄氏度下是多少，而且你知道，两地都在东海岸，飞行时间也就两个半小时左右。
I can't even imagine what that is in Celsius right and so and so you know and you know both of which are East Coast and it's like you know it's it's like a two and a half hour flight difference.
对吧？
Right?
我举这个例子是因为我觉得，你对冬天有多冷的感受，真的取决于你的视角。
And I use that as a as an as an example because I do think that your perception of how wintery it is really depends on your vantage point.
对吧？
Right?
所以，我们可以 definitely 谈谈行业里正在发生的某些大趋势。
So, you know, we can we can definitely talk about some of the bigger themes that are going on with the industry.
但，你知道，是的。
But, you know yeah.
那我们先从我们的视角说起吧。
So let's start with our vantage point.
对吧？
Right?
正如你好心提到的，2025年有七次退出。
You know, as as you were kind enough to mention, seven exits in 2025.
我想我大致可以描述为：实际上有四次成功退出和两次重大退出。
You know, I would approximately describe that as in reality four successful exits and two material exits.
我们又增添了一些新的优质客户，加入到我们长长的收购方名单中。
You know, we've added some, you know, great new logos to our, you know, long list of acquirers.
我想我提过，我们已经卖出了52家企业中的13家。
I think I mentioned, you know, we've sold 13 out of 52 businesses.
我们的第一只基金仍然是欧洲2015年同期基金中向投资者分配收益最多的，据剑桥数据显示，这一地位已保持了将近四年。
Our first fund remains Europe's number one 2015 vintage fund for what we've distributed to to our investors and has been for, I think, getting on for four years now according to to Cambridge.
你知道吗？
You know?
但确实如此。
But yeah.
所以，是的，我们又新增了一些退出案例，比如Axe LX去年被Carter收购了。
So, yeah, we've added you know, I think we sold Axe LX, got acquired by Carter last year.
Fortify被Paxos收购了。
Fortify got acquired by Paxos.
SteelEye与FundApps合并，而FundApps本身刚刚被FTV收购。
SteelEye got merged into FundApps, which themselves had just been acquired by FTV.
实际上，我们也应该谈谈这一点，因为我认为这标志着收购方结构的变化，尤其是在我们所处的机构领域，接下来的阶段将尤为明显。
And, actually, we should talk about that as well because I think that's a structural change in terms of who the acquirers are going to be during this, you know, during this next phase, particularly in the institutional space in which we in which we in which we operate.
此外，去年年初，当Citadel投资Transfic时，我们完成了一笔重大的二级市场交易。
And then we did a bit, you know, then we did a substantial secondary when Citadel invested in Transfic at at the start of last year.
所以
So
对
Yeah.
对
Yeah.
你知道，我们看到了流动性，这非常好。
You know, so, you know, we've seen liquidity, you know, which is great.
这无疑是风险投资回暖的迹象。
That's definitely a sign of venture spring.
你知道，还有很多公司仍在为流动性发愁。
You know, like, there's a lot of people still struggling for for liquidity.
你知道，IPO窗口并没有像我们多次讨论的那样持续开放。
You know, the IPO windows have not been consistently open as we've discussed many times, you know
对
Yeah.
当然。
Absolutely.
我们的模式并不依赖于IPO窗口的开放。
Our model is not contingent on the IPO window being open.
我认为春天的另一个标志是，大量资本开始重新流入风险投资领域。
And then I think the other sign of spring is, again, just the amount of capital that is starting to flow into, you know, in back into, you know, back into venture.
对吧？
Right?
但我觉得，正是这种视角上的差异才真正产生了影响。
But this is where I think that that perspective thing really makes a difference.
对吧？
Right?
你知道吗？
You know?
所以，我们看到了巨额资本的投入，2025年投入的资本规模是自2021至2022年泡沫市场以来最大的。
So, you know, we've seen, you know, huge amounts of, you know, of of capital getting deployed, biggest amounts of capital deployed in 2025 since the sort of the, you know, the the bubble s market of 2122.
所以是22年。
So '22.
风险投资已投入5000亿美元。
$500,000,000,000 deployed by VC.
对吧？
Right?
但这种集中程度，我认为是前所未有的。
But the concentration of it is is is, you know, I think unprecedented.
对吧？
Right?
你知道吗，去年第三季度，30%的风险投资资金都投在了超级轮次上。
You know, the the, you know, 30% of VC capital in the third quarter of last year, right, was deployed in mega rounds.
对吧？
Right?
你现在会经常看到超级轮次的风险投资。
You're gonna hit mega around VC all the time now.
对吧？
Right?
超级融资，就是超过5亿美元的融资。
Mega round, around that's over $500,000,000.
对吧？
Right?
18家公司拿走了三分之一的风险投资资金。
18 companies capture a third of VC funding.
对吧？
Right?
这简直让人震惊。
Like, this is gobsmacking.
这真是
This is
风险投资原本应该是非相关性的资本。
the venture capital was always supposed to be non correlated capital.
对吧？
Right?
我们看到的情况是，实际上，资本高度集中，大量资金流入最大的基金，然后又从这些最大的基金流向最大的私营公司。
And and what we're seeing is that, actually, there's this huge capital concentration both of money flowing into the biggest funds and then money flowing out of the biggest funds into the biggest private companies.
我们会谈到人工智能之类的议题。
And, you know, we'll talk about, you know, AI and whatever.
毫无疑问。
No doubt.
但2025年，50%的风投资金都投向了人工智能公司。
But, you know, 50% of total VC funding in 2025 went into AI companies.
对吧？
Right?
这真是令人震惊。
That is that is staggering.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
30家风险投资公司自身捕获了全部募资的75%。
30 VC firms themselves captured 75% of all fundraising.
对吧？
Right?
所以这是管理人的情况。
So that's the managers.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得16亿占了20%。
I think I think a 16 z was 20%.
对吧？
Right?
九家机构捕获了总募资额的一半。
Nine firms captured half of total funds raised.
这简直太不寻常了。
That's it's just extraordinary normal.
我的意思是，我们在上节目前你就跟我提过这些，但这些数字真的越来越惊人，不是吗？
I mean, you you told me this before we came on air, and then the numbers just don't get any more staggering, do they?
当你去思考的时候，当你不断听到这些信息时。
When you when you think about it, when you keep hearing.
是的。
Yeah.
所以，投资规模达到了创纪录的高位，或者说是接近纪录水平，除了2021和2022年。
So so the deployments at a record high or, you know, close to record high barring '21, '22.
资金正以更集中的方式投向更少的公司。
It's getting deployed into in in a more concentrated way into less companies.
募资总额远未达到纪录高位。
Fundraising is nowhere near record high.
对吧？
Right?
有限合伙人仍然谨慎，因为他们还没有获得足够的流动性回报。
LPs are still cautious because they haven't had enough liquidity out.
但他们在投资的地方，都集中在同样的那些基金里。
But where they are deploying, it's going into, you know, all of the same, you know, all of the same funds.
对吧？
Right?
所以你现在看到的是巨型基金和巨型交易。
And so what you've got is mega funds and mega deals.
我想说的是让股权投资再次伟大，但这不是我要说的。
And, you know, make equity great again, I guess, is the that's not a Let me go.
这不是一个朗朗上口的口号。
Not a sound bite.
这并不是一个朗朗上口的口号。
It's not a sound bite.
太晚了。
It's too late.
已经定了。
It's written.
哦，不。
Oh, no.
所以，是的，我认为这确实是个真正的挑战，因为在风险投资领域，你要么是巨型基金。
So so, yeah, I think that's a real challenge because what's happening is in the world of venture, you know, you're either a mega fund.
对吧？
Right?
如果是这样，那你就像一个黑洞，把资本全都吸走了。
In which case, you know, you're just like a black hole that's just sucking in the capital.
对吧？
Right?
或者你是一个小型的、以阿尔法为导向的专业机构。
Or you're a small, you know, alpha driven specialist.
对吧？
Right?
对吧？
Right?
或者你卡在中间。
Or you're stuck somewhere in the middle.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得现在卡在中间是个极其痛苦的处境。
I think stuck somewhere in the middle right now is a horribly painful place to be.
对吧？
Right?
我认为不管好坏，我们都卡在了那个位置，你知道的，我们确实采取了一种以阿尔法为导向的策略，你知道，我们的行业网络，能帮你消除我们所做事情中的猜测成分。
Now I think for better or worse, we're stuck somewhere in the, you know, in that, you know, we we definitely have an alpha driven strategy, you know, our industry network, you know, like, taking the guesswork out of what we're doing.
对吧？
Right?
你知道，这一直是我们所做事情的核心。
You know, like, you know, that has always been the core of what we do.
所以我认为我们属于这一类。
So I think we're in that bucket.
但在融资过程中，外面真的很难。
But on a fundraising journey, it's really hard out there.
对吧？
Right?
我们的模式是，你可以从第一只基金的分配中看到，它已经达到了成熟阶段。
And, you know, our model is, you know, is you know, you can see it in the distributions in the first fund, which is hit maturity.
对吧？
Right?
我对我们在第二只基金中积累的数字资产领域非常兴奋，而且在第三只基金中，有很多真正的幂律分布机会正在等待发生，我提到了三个A轮基金中的两个。
Very, very excited about, you know, what we've got stored up in the digital asset space in fund two and the, you know, there's a lot of, you know, true power law distribution stuff waiting to happen in ventures three are are are two sort of, you know, mentioning two of the three series a funds.
但我有24个人。
But but I've got 24 people.
对吧？
Right?
你知道，我们完全可以管理四到五倍的资本，而无需显著扩大交易团队，因为我们的团队规模已经很大了，毕竟我们与市场互动非常频繁。
You know, I easily I we we could easily be managing four or five times the capital, like, without significantly increasing the deal team because the, you know, the team is so large because we engage with the street so much.
对吧？
Right?
当然。
Of course.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
但要实现真正的突破，可能比以往任何时候都更困难。
But actually making that breakthrough is probably as hard as it's ever been.
对吧？
Right?
所以，你知道，我不确定这是否是你常用的一句口号，但确实是我以前写过博客的一个观点：我不只是一个风险投资人。
So, you know, I think I don't know if it is one of the sound bites you use, but certainly one of the things that I've written blogs about before is, you know, I'm not just a VC.
我也是一个创业者。
I'm an entrepreneur too.
对吧？
Right?
嗯。
Mhmm.
你知道，我们都身在其中。
You know, we're all out.
你知道，我是从零开始创办这家公司的。
You know, I founded this business from zero.
我不是直接接手了别人的特许经营权。
I didn't drop into somebody's franchise.
我很幸运一路上遇到了一些非常出色的人，我们一起努力，真的取得了非凡的成就。
You know, I was very lucky to be joined by some brilliant people along the way, and they've, you know, really you know, we've built it together and that's phenomenal.
但每一天，我们都在亲身经历创业者所面临的现实挑战，也就是我们所投资的那些人所面对的。
But every day, we're living the reality of the, you know, the entrepreneurial challenges, the people we invest in.
对吧？
Right?
你知道的？
You know?
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我们突破到下一个阶段。
We break through to the next level.
对吧？
Right?
我在想，这是否正是我开头提到的——关于投资的成功、人际关系，以及我从另一端获得的反馈。
And I wonder if that's what, coming back to what I said at the start about the sort of success of the investments and the relationships and the feedback that I get from the other side of it.
我认识的所有从事这项事业的公司，从来没有人说过它们的坏话。
There's never been there's no one who's had a bad word to say of all the companies that I've known who are doing it.
恰恰相反。
There's quite the reverse.
有很多非常出色的反馈和证言，来自那些与你一同走过这段旅程的人。
There's some tremendous sort of feedback and testimonials that are given to me by people who've been part of this journey with you.
也许这正是因为同样的原因。
And maybe that's because it is that same sort of thing.
这并不是一个冷漠的组织，让人只是泛泛而谈。
It's not like a faceless organisation where you talk about that.
这里有一种创业精神，即理解挑战并共同应对，尤其是在你所专注的这种小众领域，你并不会到处插手。
There is that entrepreneurial thing of understanding the challenges and working together from it, particularly when you're talking about that sort of niche driven area that you're not here, there and everywhere around it.
在你所了解的这些领域，这一直是一个非常明确的战略。
It's been very deliberate as a strategy in the areas that you know about as well.
是的。
Yeah.
听我说。
Look.
我的意思是，听到这些真的很好。
I mean, I think I mean, a, it's great to hear that.
你知道，通过第三方获得正面反馈总是很棒的，因为这可能是
You know, it's always great to get positive feedback third hand because, you know, it's probably
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
丛林鼓声。
The jungle drum.
这和主动去索取反馈完全不同。
Very different to going out and asking for it.
我不是纽约街头的擦鞋匠吗？
I'm not I'm the shoeshine guy in the streets of New York there.
他知道这些信息。
He knows the information.
它是
It's
没错，正是如此。
just Exactly.
正是如此。
Exactly.
这是一份好工作。
It's a good job.
这是私募市场，不是公开市场。
It's private markets, not public markets.
对。
Right.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
看。
Look.
我的意思是，那真是这样。
I mean, I mean, that's look.
听到这个真是太棒了。
That's fantastic to hear.
我知道，我一直以来都说，你在这里得到的是创业同理心。
I I know, I've always said the one thing that you get here is entrepreneurial empathy.
我们了解企业成长的挑战。
We know the challenges of growing a business.
对吧？
Right?
嗯嗯。
Mhmm.
你知道吗？
You know?
对我们来说，这和对其他人来说没什么不同。
And it's no different for us as it is to as it is to everybody else.
但我的意思是，我手头没有这个材料，但上周或者前周有一项研究发布，基本上指出，首次出现了活跃的风险投资公司数量与僵尸基金数量的对比。
But, I mean, there was a I haven't got it in front of me, but there was a piece of research came out last week, maybe the week before, that basically said that for the first time, the actual number of of active VC firms and versus the number of zombie funds.
对吧？
Right?
因此，活跃的风险投资公司数量十年来首次下降，而僵尸基金的数量却上升了。
So the number of active VC firms had decreased for the first time in, a decade, and the number of zombie funds had had gone up.
所谓僵尸基金，是指仍在管理现有投资者，但没有筹集更多资本来投资新项目的基金。
A zombie fund is a fund that's managing its existing investors, but hasn't raised any more capital to invest into to, you know, to deploy in to deploy into new into new deals.
所以，本质上，这属于正在逐步退出的状态。
So effectively, that's in, you know, that's in that's in runoff.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
那意思是，那意思是
That's I mean That's
这对企业来说可不是一个健康的状态。
that's not a healthy place for the business to be in.
对吧？
Right?
我不介意。
I don't mind.
当然。
Of course.
我的意思是，你知道，我们有两笔活跃的资本正在投入使用。
I mean, you know, we're we're you know, we've got two active pools of capital that we're deploying.
我们正在最终敲定我们的第一个B轮策略——早期增长基金的最终关闭。
We're just finalizing the close the the the final close of our first series b strategy early growth one.
虽然我们还没筹集到预期的全部资金，但已经足够启动这个策略了。
Then we haven't raised what we wanted for it, but we've got enough to, you know, kind of get started on the strategy.
我们今年晚些时候会再次回到市场，推出风投四期。
We'll be back in the market with Ventures four, you know, later this year.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
这是个数据。
Here's the stat.
对吧？
Right?
2021年，参与美国风险投资交易的独立风投投资者数量达到25,000人的峰值。
Number of unique venture investors participating in deals in The US peaked 25,000 in 2021.
不过，这个数据是来自AI的，谁知道是不是有幻觉。
This is from AI though, by the way, so who knows if there's an hallucination.
对吧？
Right?
下降到大约11
To roughly 11
信任，但要验证。
Trust and verify.
到2024年早期，降至大约11,400。
To roughly 11,400 in 2024, early twenty five.
与峰值水平相比，活跃投资公司减少了54%。
A 54% reduction in active investing firms compared with peak levels.
是的。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
在欧洲，每年至少进行一笔投资的风投公司数量从2022年到2024年下降了30%。
In Europe, the count of VCs that did at least one deal per year declined 30% from 2022 to 2024.
对吧？
Right?
这些数据真的很有趣，对吧？关于我们未来的发展方向以及它们真正意味着什么，就像我之前说过的，过去五六年在某种程度上一直被两端的极端情况主导，你提到了2021到2022年的泡沫，感觉那已经过去很久了，但有趣的是，看到市场像往常一样循环运作，展望到2030年，考虑到宏观层面的波动似乎没有尽头，这究竟意味着什么？未来这个领域会走向何方？
It's really interesting sort of set of data, isn't it, around where we go and actually what that means looking further forward, as I sort of said before, this last five, six years has been dominated by extremes on both ends in one way or another, and obviously you talked about the bubble of 2122, which feels like quite a way away, quite a way behind us, but it's interesting to see what With the markets working in cycles as they usually do, and looking ahead to years to 2030, it's quite interesting to see where you think with, again, with no end in sight for volatility on a macro basis, what that actually means and what that looks like and where you think this is the future of the space goes.
我的意思是，宏观层面真的非常有趣，因为你必须考虑自然的市场波动，以及来自政治领导等外部因素的影响。
I mean, like, the macro the macro side of it's really, really interesting because you have to, you know, you have to look at, you know, natural market volatility, extraneous factors from, you know, from, you know, political leadership.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道吧？
You know?
而且，你知道，很难就这些方面制定法规或进行投资。
And, you know, like, it's very, hard to legislate and invest around those.
我的意思是，我觉得很难说，我有交易背景。
I mean, I think it's hard to like, I'm a I'm a go trading background.
我可不想在一个有人能随意公开发表言论就左右市场的地方交易，就像现在经常发生的那样。
I'd hate to be trading in a world where, you know, someone can just randomly come on the record and and move a market, right, as much as much as happens today.
你知道吧？
You know?
然后你还有真正的宏观技术变革，而这正是我们关注的核心。
And then you've got actual macro technology shifts, which is what we're actually all about as well.
对吧？
Right?
所以，
So,
你知道，我们每天都要应对的纯粹市场波动。
you know, the like, pure market volatility we deal with every day.
对吧？
Right?
你知道，顺便说一下，这些事情其实是有关联的，因为毕竟还有一场大辩论。
You know, like, some of these things are linked, by the way, of course, because, you know, there's the whole debate.
我们是不是处在人工智能泡沫中？
Are we in an AI bubble?
对吧？
Right?
你知道，如果英伟达打个喷嚏，整个金融市场会不会感冒？
You know you know, if NVIDIA sneezes, does the whole financial market catch a cold?
对吧？
Right?
嗯。
Mhmm.
你知道，当时在构建一家风投公司时，经历了后疫情时代的市场崩盘，这真是一个惨痛的教训——公共市场崩盘了，在我看来，这意味着资本回报反而更好了。
You know, like, it was a pretty harsh lesson building a VC firm when when the sort of the post COVID kind of collapse happened to kind of go, okay, you know, public markets collapse, which means in my mind, capital returns are better.
等一下。
Hang on a minute.
没人愿意投资风险投资，因为他们都觉得自己的风投配置已经超配了。
Nobody wants to invest in venture capital because they all feel like they're overweight venture capital.
是的。
Yeah.
因为如果之前是五五开，而公共市场下跌了50%，那现在私人市场的配置比例就变成了三分之二。
Because if they were fifty fifty before and and public drops by 50%, now you're two thirds allocated to private markets.
这就像是。
It's like
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
好的。
Okay.
所以在公开市场下跌时，我无法筹集资金。
So I can't raise money in a public falling market.
好的。
Okay.
明白了。
Got that.
公开市场上涨。
Public markets go up.
他们觉得，与流动性市场相比，风险投资的回报并不那么出色。
They're like, oh, well, venture capital returns compared to a liquid market aren't that great.
好吧。
It's like, okay.
展开剩余字幕（还有 309 条）
在牛市中无法筹集资金。
Can't raise money in a rising market.
这真是个挑战。
That's a challenge.
对吧？
Right?
而且，你知道，我们是那些已经向投资者返还资本的风投公司之一。
And, you know, and and we're and we're one of the VCs that have returned capital.
所以我们去见投资者。
So we go meet with investors.
我们会说，但我们已经返还了大量资本。
We go, oh, but we've returned a lot of capital.
对吧？
Right?
他们说，这很棒。
They go, that's great.
我们很喜欢。
We love it.
但我们无法分配资金，因为我们还没收到回报。
But we can't allocate because we haven't Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
来自其他任何人的回报。
Back from anybody else.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
对吧？
Right?
好的。
Okay.
嗯，你知道的，我们会再回到Ventures四。
Well, you know, we'll come back on Ventures four.
对吧？
Right?
而且希望，你知道，希望到那时，我们会因为实际所做的事情得到回报，因为我们有一个有效的模式。
And hopefully, you know, hopefully, at that point, you know, we'll get rewarded for what we actually for what we actually have done because we have a model because we have a model that works.
所以，你知道，围绕着建立我们的业务并应对这些宏观因素是很有挑战性的。
So so, you know, managing around like, building our business and managing around those macro things are challenging.
显然，这也意味着对投资组合中的公司会产生什么影响。
Obviously, then you've got just what that actually also means for the companies in the portfolio.
对吧？
Right?
所以
And so
当然。
Of course.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道，就像世界在二〇二一到二〇二二年期间感冒一样，我们的客户公司会减少支出，或者更加谨慎，诸如此类，导致增长放缓。
You know, like, when the world catches a cold as it did in, you know, in that sort of twenty twenty one, twenty two period, you know, the organizations that are clients are spending less or being more thoughtful or what have you, so growth slows.
因此，这成了一个挑战，因为风投机构筹集的资金并没有那么多。
So that becomes, you know, a challenge because the VCs haven't been raising as much.
他们手头可投资的资金也不多了。
They haven't got as much to deploy.
而且由于增长放缓，融资也变得困难。
And because the growth has slowed, the fundraising
没压力。
No pressure.
机会窗口会变宽。
Windows get wider.
对吧？
Right?
因此，如何管理一家私营公司的整体动态发生了变化，因为不再是‘先融资18个月，再过12个月又融一轮’那么简单。
So the whole dynamic of how to now manage a private company becomes different because, you know, it's not that, hey, raise for eighteen months and raise again in twelve.
你必须能够支撑两到三年，逐步向更盈利的模式转型，除非你是一家真正的幂律超高速增长公司。
It's like, you've gotta be able to carry yourself for two and a half, three years and move materially towards, you know, towards a more profitable model unless you are a true power law hyper growth company.
对吧？
Right?
如果你是一家真正的幂律超高速增长公司——我们都想找到这样的公司，对吧？那太好了，因为说到底，谁曾想到《圣经》里竟蕴含着如此多的风险投资智慧呢？你知道的，‘凡有的，还要加给他’。
And if you are a true power law hyper growth company and we all want to find those, right, that's great because, again, who knew that the bible had so much venture capital wisdom in it, you know you know, to those that have will be given.
这正是我们正在看到的。
That's what we're seeing.
基金。
Funds.
我们在大型融资轮次中看到的就是这种情况。
That's what we're seeing with the mega rounds.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
然后你就面临政治上的挑战。
Then you go to the political challenge.
对吧？
Right?
比如，你知道，美国政府更替后，突然间对数字资产的看法完全改变了。
And it's like, okay, you know, you had the administration change in The US and all of a sudden, that's completely changed the view on digital assets.
它极大地推动了数字资产走出寒冬。
It bore digital assets massively out of digital asset winter.
所以加密寒冬，嗯。
So crypto winter Mhmm.
变成了加密春天。
Became crypto spring.
非常迅速。
Very quickly.
是的。
Yeah.
但顺便说一句，如果你正在建立一家以美国为基础、专注于可持续发展的企业，现在并不是好时机。
But by the way, if you're building a US based, you know, sustainability focused business, it's not your time.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
这是
It's
不是你的时机。
not your time.
所以，你知道的，随着几支选举笔一挥
So so, you know, with the stroke of, you know, several electoral pens
是的。
Yeah.
没错，整个一类资产突然不再受青睐，而另一类资产重新受到欢迎。
Right, an entire part of an asset class fell out of favor and an entire asset class came back into favor.
对吧？
Right?
明白。
See.
对。
Right.
是的。
Yeah.
这真的非常具有挑战性。
And, like, that is, like, super challenging.
不过，有个好消息要告诉你。
Now that, you know, here's the great news, by the way.
你知道，风险投资基金的寿命比政府任期更长。
You know, venture funds outlive administrations.
对吧？
Right?
对吧？
Right?
而且这不仅仅关乎美国。
And and again, it's not just about The US.
而是任何地方，你知道的，其他任何地方。
It's anywhere, you know, it's anywhere else.
对吧？
Right?
你说就连在加密货币领域，你也看到安德森·霍洛维茨因为这里的政府更迭而从美国搬到英国，后来又搬回美国。
Well, you say even in that crypto piece, you saw it with Anderson Horowitz coming over to The UK and then moving back to The States with government changes over here.
而且显然，那边的加密货币产业也增长了。
And obviously the growth of it back over there.
我认为人们在选择做事地点时非常灵活。
I think people have been nimble about where they do things.
而且
And
你
you
知道，我
know, I
我觉得我以前说过，这大概也适用于你的领域，就像适用于其他一切一样。
think I've said it before that and I guess it it goes to your world as much as everything else.
以前，‘转型’是个很负面的词。
Pivot used to be a very dirty word.
现在它似乎变得非常潮流了，不是吗？
Now it seems to be very on trend, doesn't it?
是的。
Yeah.
但我也认为，当你考虑投资私募市场时，必须同时考虑两件事，它们有点儿矛盾，几乎是对立的。
But but but also I think, you know, when you're thinking about investing in private markets, have to be thinking about two things that are slightly you you know, they both need to line up and they're kind of almost against each other in a way.
这些可是十年期的基金。
Like, like, these are ten year funds.
我们投资的目标是十年回报。
We are investing, you know, for ten year returns.
对吧？
Right?
所以，这跟短期的政治、方向变化、上周达沃斯发布了什么之类的事情无关。
So, you know, it's not about short term politics, changes in direction, what came out of Davos last week or what have you.
对吧？
Right?
关键是，哪些结构性变化将在十年内推动巨大的价值创造。
It's like, what are the structural changes that are going to drive massive value creation over a decade.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
这正是我们所寻找的。
That's what we're looking for.
因此，风险投资二号基金——我们2019年推出的A系列基金——有30%的投资投向了数字资产的机构化。
That's why 30% of Ventures two, our 2019 vintage series a fund, is invested in the institutionalization of digital assets.
对吧？
Right?
比如，这支基金并没有掀起什么惊天动地的波澜。
Like, that fund, like, is not setting the world on fire.
对吧？
Right?
为什么它没有引起轰动？
Why is it not setting the world on fire?
对吧？
Right?
因为它有很大的潜力，但说实话。
By the it's got a lot of potential, but let's be honest.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
当然。
Absolutely.
对吧？
Right?
为什么它没有引起轰动呢？
Why is it not setting the world on fire?
因为它在风险投资寒冬和数字资产寒冬来临之前，就把30%的资本投入到了市场顶端。
Because it was deploying 30% of its capital, you know, towards the top of the market ahead of venture ahead of both venture winter and digital asset winter.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
所以这真是一个惊人的双倍回报。
So it's a hell of a double that.
所以，你知道，我们不得不熬过大概五年了。是的。
So, you know, we've had to weather probably five years Yeah.
那些数字资产投资有些真的经历了大幅下跌然后又回升。
Of some of those digital asset investments kind of really kind of going, you know, like down and then back up.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
但现在我们采取的是十年视角，而且这个周期还剩下好几年，所以现在真是个令人兴奋的阶段。
But now because we're taking a ten year view and we still got, you know, several years left to run on this, right, it's really an exciting place to be.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
这个基金的估值已经度过了J曲线阶段。
The valuation of the fund is, you it's through the j curve.
对吧？
Right?
而且，你知道，它曾经长期如此。
And, you know, was for for, you know, was for a long time.
但你知道，它并没有引起轰动，但潜力是存在的。
But it know, but again, it's not setting the world on fire, but the potential energy is there.
当然。
Absolutely.
是的。
Yeah.
潜力一直都在。
The potential energy was always there.
对吧？
Right?
但我们不得不熬过那个低迷期，你知道，我们不得不熬过那个低迷期，你知道，我们不得不熬过那次下行。
But we had to weather that, you know, but we had to weather that, you know, but we had to weather that that that downturn.
而且，你知道，你能做到这一点，是因为你采取了长期视角。
And, you know, you can do that because it's because you're taking a long term view.
当然，关键在于，另一方面这些公司必须能够挺过那次低迷期。
Now the trick, of course, is that the other side of that coin is those companies have to be able to survive that downturn.
对吧？
Right?
你知道的？
You know?
是的。
Yes.
当然。
Of course.
所以在某些情况下，我们相当幸运，尽管我们进入时的估值水平很高，但这些公司却能够筹集到大量资金。
And so in some cases where, you know, we're quite fortunate that, yes, we might have gone in at high valuation levels, but at the same time, those companies were able to raise large amounts of capital
是的。
Yeah.
绝对如此。
Absolutely.
不必在大幅降价的市场环境中重返市场
Didn't have to come back to market in a huge down round environment
是的。
Yeah.
实际上回到如今这些公司所处的估值水平。
To actually kinda get back to, you know, the sort of values that, you know, the the the the the you know, they're they're at today.
对吧？
Right?
而且感觉这些企业的运营也很稳健。
And it feels like sensible running of those businesses as well.
这并不像是把钱乱花一通，然后说：我们融到资了，那就放手大干吧。
It's it doesn't feel like this has been thrown, good you money off the bad and saying, right, we've raised, so let's go through there.
感觉这些公司确实被很好地管理着，我所了解的、你也熟悉的那些公司都是如此。
It feels like it's been well stewarded in the companies that certainly I've known that you've been around as well.
是的，但在这个过程中，确实出现了一种心态上的转变，因为在2021年和2022年资金宽松的时候，情况未必如此。
Yeah, but there's definitely a mindset change along that way because in the easy money times of 2021, 2022, that wasn't necessarily the case.
对吧？
Right?
确实。
True.
我们在不同阶段都远远偏离了那种状态，不是吗？
And we all fell far out of that at various stages, didn't we?
没错。
Correct.
没错。
Correct.
对吧？
Right?
所以，你知道，公司必须能够应对这两种宏观因素——市场波动，以及姑且称之为政治波动的因素。
So so, you know, so you the companies need to be able to fund through both kinds of those kind of macro factors, just market vol and, you know, and political vol for want of a better expression.
当然，你还要考虑整个根本性的宏观技术变革。
And then, of course, you've got the whole fundamental, okay, but what are the actual macro technology changes?
对吧？
Right?
或者在我们的情况下，是行业需求。
And or, in our case, industry needs.
对吧？
Right?
有哪些最佳技术能够应对这些需求呢？
What are the best technologies that sit, you know, that sit against those?
对吧？
Right?
然后，我们就迎来了整个AI热潮。
And then so we have the whole, you know, AI boom.
而且
And
这是一个非常有趣的地方，也是一个非常有趣的挑战。
that's a really interesting place and a really interesting challenge as well.
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是，我们已经做过人工智能投资。
I mean, we've done AI investments.
我们不是那种会投资于一个，你知道的，大语言模型的人。
We're not the sort of people that are going to invest in a, you know, in an LLM.
对吧？
Right?
我们不会去投资五亿美元的巨额融资，去获得一家估值高达万亿美金的公司的微量股权。
We're not going to invest in a 500,000,000 mega round to own basis points of a company at a, you know, zillion dollar valuation.
对吧？
Right?
我们需要关注这项技术与我们所处世界的交汇点，真正理解应用层在哪里，以及哪些未来可扩展的应用解决方案将在我们的市场中创造巨大价值。
We need to be looking at what the intersection as ever of this technology with our world is to actually really understand, you know, where is the application layer and the future proof application layer of those solutions that is going to drive huge value in our market.
而且，实际上这非常有趣，因为如果你将它与上世纪末区块链热潮相比较，当时区块链刚出现时，所有金融机构都设立了区块链实验室。
And and, actually, it's it's it's really interesting because if you draw a parallel to the original blockchain boom of, like, the late teens, right, when when blockchain came along, all the financial institutions had these blockchain labs.
他们当时到处都在投资。
They were all investing left, right, and center.
是的。
Yeah.
其中很大一部分并没有取得什么实质成果。
A huge amount of that hasn't really achieved very much.
我们还没有看到机构金融大规模转向区块链平台。
We haven't seen the, you know, the mass transition onto blockchain rails of institutional finance yet.
绝对如此。
Absolutely.
对。
Yeah.
好。
Yeah.
所以，没错，这确实是其中有趣的一部分，不是吗？
So, yeah, it's an interesting part of that, isn't it?
这就是关键所在，这也是我对此如此兴奋的原因
Well, that's the key, and that's why I'm so excited about
是的
Yeah.
也很有趣
Fun too.
对吧？
Right?
是的
Yeah.
因为，随着稳定币的发展加速，随着资产、股权和现实世界资产的代币化，我们所投资的机构级基础设施的需求终于成为一项创造价值的举措
Because, you know, as we see the stable coin pace hotting up, as we see the tokenization of assets and equities, real world assets coming along, the need for institutional grade rails final which is what we've invested in, finally becomes, you know, a value creating proposition.
而且这确实非常重大，是的
And and that's that's mega yeah.
这真的非常令人兴奋
That is mega exciting.
但要打个AI的比方，我之前就跟你说过，我们并没有投资任何一家区块链公司。
But but to draw the AI parallel, like, we didn't invest I've said this to you before.
我们在第一支基金里完全没有投资任何一家区块链公司。
We didn't invest in a single blockchain company out of fund one.
对吧？
Right?
我们没投的原因是，当时整个世界还没有为它做好机构层面的准备。
And the reason we didn't is because, you know, the world wasn't institutionally ready for it.
嗯。
Mhmm.
顺便说一句，十年后的今天，我们差不多就要达到了那个阶段。
Like, by the way, here we are a decade later and we're just about getting there.
但当时，很多这种愿景都依赖于一场大爆炸式的变革，比如我们要把整个场外衍生品行业都搬到区块链上。
But also, a lot of that promise at the time kind of required a big bang of, oh, we're gonna take the whole, you know, we're gonna take the whole OTC derivative industry and put it on blockchain.
我们再也不需要对账了。
We won't need to reconcile anything.
这永远不会发生。
It's never gonna happen.
嗯。
Mhmm.
对吧？
Right?
它可能会朝那个方向发展，但本来就不会发生。
It might evolve there, but it was never gonna happen.
AI 完全不一样。
AI is completely different.
我经常说，我认为几乎没有一家金融机构真正了解自己完整的 AI 应用情况，因为太多年轻人在偷偷做这些事。
I I say all the time, I don't think there's a single financial institution out there that actually fully understands what their full AI footprint is because they've got so many young people doing their job off the side.
是的。
Yes.
于是突然意识到，哦，实际上有个 AI 应用场景，是由我投资银行部门、交易部门、研究部门或副总裁、总监等的助理在做的。
And so and so suddenly realizing, oh, actually, there is an AI use case that's being done by an associate on my investment banking desk or an associate in my trading desk or an associate in research or VP or director or whoever.
然后你又回到了原点，好吧。
Then you end up again, okay.
现在我们需要一个许可证。
Now we need a license.
所以你会看到这些许可证纷纷出现，主要是为了那些大型语言模型。
So you see all these licenses kinda coming along for, you know, for the, you know, for the LLMs.
然后你会看到许多其他更偏向应用型的AI产品开始进行试点。
Then you see all these pilots starting for all of these other, you know, more application type AI products.
我认为对于我们来说，一个有趣的挑战是，当涉及到区块链时，我们只需要弄清楚：在这个基金生命周期内，是否正在发生一场巨变？
I think one of the interesting challenges for us, right, when it came to blockchain, we just had to work out, hey, is a big bang happening inside this fund life cycle?
对吧？
Right?
答案是，我觉得区块链根本没发生什么巨变。
And the answer is, you know, I don't think a big bang is happening in terms of blockchain at all.
而且在基金一期和机构层面，也绝对没有发生过。
And it definitely wasn't happening in fund one and an institutional level.
这种演变将从第二只基金开始，这即将到来，非常好。
The evolution will start in fund two and that's coming and that's great.
对吧？
Right?
在人工智能领域，我们面临不同的挑战，公司会进来告诉我们：嘿，我们已经做好了准备。
In AI, we have a different challenge and the AI challenge is company comes in and says, hey, we set ourselves up.
你知道，我们一年前就 setup 好了。
You know, we set up twelve months ago.
我们六个月前就上线了产品。
We went live with our product six months ago.
我们已经实现了200万美元的收入。
We've already got $2,000,000 of revenue.
这简直太棒了。
Like, that's phenomenal.
这真的是200万美元具有粘性、可重复、长期价值的收入吗？
Is that actually $2,000,000 of sticky, repeatable, long term value, lifetime value revenue?
是的
Yeah.
对
Yeah.
还是说那200万美元只是试点型收入？
Or is that $2,000,000 of pilotitis revenue?
没错
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
这实际上很难向下传达。
And that's actually super hard to pass down.
是的
Yeah.
所以，你知道，这显然是我们正在努力应对的挑战之一，当我们决定这些价值究竟体现在哪里时。
And so, you know, that's obviously, again, part of the challenge that we're kind of, you know, working through as we decide, you know, where those, you know, where those values, you know, where those, you know, where that value sits.
这确实是一件很难处理的事情，对吧？
It's a very tricky thing to do, isn't it?
正如你所说，我认为关键在于，当技术持续演进时，它在这一领域中的粘性非常强。
As you rightly say, because there's so I think that that bit there is the stickiness of technology within that space when it continues to keep evolving.
感觉产品很快就过时了，人们必须不断重新设计产品，以适应当前的市场需求。
It feels like a product is very outdated very quickly and people have to keep on reinventing their products to be market fit for what's happening.
对我来说，关键在于，人们对人工智能以及对该领域的投资有着巨大的热情。
I think for me the bit remains that there's obviously a huge appetite for AI and investment into that space.
机构金融领域的人们对采用人工智能、提升效率和增加生产力也有着极大的兴趣。
There's a huge appetite for people in institutional finance to buy into AI and to improve efficiencies and increase productivity.
但关键是要确保这个赌注是适合你的。
But it's just about making sure the bet's for you.
我完全理解，要弄清楚在这一领域中哪些技术是能够持久存在的，对吧？
I have full sympathy about making sure which are the ones there which are built to last, aren't they, in that sort of space?
我认为，当你回过头来看你之前谈到的数字资产时，就知道这条路注定会走得很漫长。
And I think when you go back to what you were talking about about digital assets, that was always going to be a long burn about where it went.
我认为我们知道AI将是未来的趋势，但它的方向会去哪里呢？
I think we know AI is going to be in the future, but where does that go?
马克，我知道你时间有限，我和你聊上几个小时都行。
Mark, I know you're a hard stop, you and I could be talking for hours and hours and hours.
让我们展望一下今年。
So let's look ahead to this year.
这个内容将在三月左右发布，到那时我们已经快速进入第二季度了。
This will come out March time, so we're already hurtling into Q2 by the time this comes out.
跟我分享一下你对今年可能看到的一些快速预测吧。
Tell me a little bit about some of your quick predictions for what we think we'll see over the course of this year.
这总是个挑战，我们肯定会在2027年回头再复盘一次。
It's always a challenge, and we'll review it back in 2027, No doubt.
所以，正如我所说，过去十八到二十四个月里，机构数字资产的整体演变——包括ETF的增长、稳定币的兴起，以及数字资产执行端的大量活动，虽然不一定是机构层面的执行，但绝对是原生加密货币执行端的活跃。
So so I I think, as I say, the, you know, the whole evolution of institutional digital assets with, you know, the growth of the ETFs over the last, you know, eighteen, twenty four months, the the rise of the stable coins, the the the the there's been a lot of action in the execution side of digital assets, not necessarily institutional execution, but certainly the the crypto native execution side.
我认为我们现在将开始看到更多发生在基础设施层的并购活动。
I think we're now gonna start to see more activity on the m and a acquisition side in the sort of the the infrastructure layer of that.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得这些公司会想要在自身行业内的并购或IPO之前，增强能力、人才和收入。
You know, I think those companies are gonna be looking to add on capabilities and talent and revenue, you know, ahead of their own, you know, set you know, their own industry m and a and or IPOs.
对吧？
Right?
所以我认为，在未来十八到二十四个月内，可能不是十二个月，但我觉得十二个月内我们就会开始看到这种趋势，这肯定会发生。
So I think that, you know, over the next eighteen to twenty four months, maybe not twelve, but I think we're gonna start to see it over twelve, that's definitely that's definitely coming through.
是的。
Yeah.
你觉得AI会出现波动吗？
I think will there be an AI wobble?
我觉得一定会。
I think there has to be.
我觉得肯定会有波动。
I think there definitely I think there definitely has to be.
所以我们需要留意这一点，看看这对我们的行业会产生什么影响。
So let's watch out for that and see what the and see what the what the impact of that on our on our industry is.
是的。
Yeah.
当然。
Sure.
我看不出这种资产向管理者分配的两端化趋势会何时结束。
I don't see I don't see an end insight to this barbell type distribution of allocation of assets to managers.
所以我认为，这是我们行业每个人都需要思考的问题：你到底是谁。
So I think that's a challenge for, you know, everybody in our industry to kind of work out what you are.
你到底是能够跻身顶尖行列的人，还是只能将你的公司管理到某个规模？
You know, are you somebody that can break through to the top ranks, or do you have to, you know, manage your firm to a certain level?
所以我认为，那里会看到一些进一步的收缩。
So I think we'll see, you know, a bit more a bit more shrinkage there.
在某个时候，我认为资本配置的分布可能需要再次扩大。
You know, at some point, I I think I think the distribution of deployment of capital probably needs to broaden back out again.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
回想我们之前交谈时，我提到过回归差异化，但我从未预料到这种程度的差异化。
Think when we spoke before, I spoke about, you know, a return to differentiation, but I never expected this level of differentiation.
嗯。
Mhmm.
你知道，公司 perceived quality 的差异正推动着如此强烈的集中化。
You know, because diff you know, differentiation in perceived quality of company is just driving so much concentration.
对吧？
Right?
我认为，钟摆总是摆得过头，而这次确实摆得太远了。
I think, you know, the the the pendulum always swings too far, and I think it has gone too far.
所以，让我们看看最终会有什么结果。
And so, you know, let's see let's see what, you know, what comes out of it.
对吧？
Right?
那种气质。
The look.
2021年和2022年私募市场的泡沫，确实是由人们普遍觉得市场只会上涨，于是不断投资、不断投资所驱动的。
The bubble of 2021, 2022 in private markets was definitely driven by people just feeling like the market was always going up and, you know, deploy, deploy, deploy.
你知道，现在市场上某些领域可能也存在类似的情况。
You know, there may be some of that going on in certain sections of the market right now.
所以我们得密切关注，谨慎管理资本，确保我们的投资组合中真正具备长期价值主张，这些主张能够
So we gotta watch that, steward our capital carefully, and make sure that, you know, we've got genuine long term value propositions in the portfolio that that
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
在无论这三个宏观因素如何变化的情况下，都能带来回报。
Turn that are gonna return value, you know, irrespective of all of those three macro factors.
对吧？
Right?
所以这就是游戏规则。
So that's the game.
明年这个时候再见。
See you this time same time next year.
最后再问一个问题，给那些在2026年融资的人。
One one last question to put put into it for people who are raising in '26.
抱歉插一句。
Sorry to jump this in.
如果有人打算在2026年融资，你会给这些公司什么建议？
If people are looking to raise in '26, what bit of advice would you give to those companies?
有人正想成为你们投资组合中的第54家和第55家公司。
People are looking to be number fifty four and fifty five in your portfolio.
我觉得这是基本的规范。
I I think it's good hygiene.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得你必须确保你的股权结构简单且没有问题。
I think I think you've got to make sure you've got a cap table that is is simple and not broken.
所以你需要筹集足够的资金，以支撑你直到下一个可融资的里程碑达成。
So you need to be raising enough to see you through to the next genuine delivery of a metric that is fundable.
对吧？
Right?
所以不要在十八个月内再次融资，但一定要为两到三年的融资做好准备。
So no fundraising for eighteen months, definitely fundraising for, you know, two to three years.
在可转换票据上叠加可转换票据，或在SAFE票据上叠加SAFE票据，不会让人有信心。
Layering convert on top of convert or SafeNote on top of SafeNote does not inspire confidence.
嗯。
Mhmm.
证明你的股权结构清晰，创始人和管理团队拥有适当的股权比例，对于长远发展至关重要。
Demonstrating that your cap table is clean, that the the the founders and and management have the appropriate ownership is is absolutely key for, you know, for for for the long game.
而且，我认为能够证明你不仅能向客户销售你的业务，还能从市场上融资，这一点也很重要。
And, you know, I also think being able to demonstrate that you can not only sell your business to your clients, but actually also fundraise from the market.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得过去四五年里，太多公司都只在内部进行融资了。
Like, I think there's been a lot of too many internal fundraising journeys over the last four or five years.
这不仅仅是销售你的产品的问题。
And, you know, it's not just about selling your product.
还要向下一个投资者推销你的梦想。
It's also about selling your your dream to the next investor.
是的。
Yeah.
非常好。
Very good.
那么，马克，Illuminate 又将迎来充满希望的一年吗？
Well, Mark, another another exciting year for Illuminate?
但愿如此。
Let's hope so.
但愿如此。
Let's hope so.
我们今年晚些时候会再次以Ventures四期重返市场。
We'll be back in market with Ventures four later this year.
明年我们会讨论这一进展如何，并弄清楚我们是成功者还是失败者。
We'll be talking next year about how that's going and find out if we're one of the haves or have nots.
盯着那些线。
Watching the wires.
我肯定我会选成功者。
I'm sure I'm sure I'm gonna go with haves.
我永远支持你。
Always backing you.
一如既往，非常感谢你抽出时间。
Thank you so much as always for your time.
这真是非常愉快，希望很快就能见到你。
It's a real pleasure, and I will see you very soon, I hope.
感谢你参加节目，马克。
For coming on show, Mark.
谢谢收看。
Thank you for watching.
我们下一期《金融科技聚焦》电视节目再见。
We'll see you on the next episode of FinTech Focus TV.
非常感谢。
Thanks a lot.
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