美国的AI热潮正在挤压主街经济 | 每周精选

欢迎来到TOKEN2049。

Welcome to TOKEN2049.

TOKEN2049新加坡站将于10月7日和8日回归，汇聚25000名参会者、300位演讲嘉宾和500家参展商，举办全球最大的加密货币活动。

TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October seventh and eighth, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for the world's largest crypto event.

TOKEN2049将与我们的亚洲数字资产峰会同期举行并合作，所以欢迎在同一周内参观这两个会议。

TOKEN2049 will be happening at the same time and in partnership with our own Digital Asset Summit Asia, so come check out both conferences during the same week.

特别是在TOKEN2049周期间，将有超过1000场周边活动，最终以2049之后的活动和一级方程式周末收官。

Across TOKEN2049 week specifically, there'll be more than 1,000 side events culminating with after 2049 and the Formula one weekend.

演讲嘉宾阵容在各个领域都非常强大。

And the speaker lineup is stacked across the board.

Polymarket的Shane Copland、Hyperliquid的Jeff Yan、Arthur Hayes、Balaji、纳斯达克CEO、Friedman的Aidan等等。

Shane Copland of Polymarket, Jeff Yan of Hyperliquid, Arthur Hayes, Balaji, Nasdaq CEO, Aidan of Friedman, and many more.

今年10月，加入我们新加坡的TOKEN2049和亚洲数字资产峰会。

Join us in Singapore this October for TOKEN2049 and the Digital Asset Summit Asia.

产品。

Products.

好了，各位。

Alright, everybody.

欢迎回到新一期的《Ford Guidance》，我们很高兴能连续第三周保持势头，继续邀请轮换嘉宾。

Welcome back to another round of edition of Ford Guidance, and we're excited to keep the momentum rolling with the rotating guests third week in a row.

这周我们非常高兴请到了Aidan Garrib，和我还有Quinn一起。他是PGM Global的全球宏观策略与研究主管。

So excited to be joined this week alongside Quinn and I with Aidan Garrib, who's the head of the global macro strategy and research at PGM Global.

你带来了一堆图表，所以这方面肯定不缺。

You've come with a with a deck full of charts, so there'll be no shortage of that.

是的，Aidan，真的很高兴你能来。

But yeah, Aidan, really great to have you.

我知道你一直是我们节目的常客，但在我们深入之前，我们很想听听你的背景，你主要关注什么，以及你在PGM具体做什么。

I know you've been a regular listener, but we'd love to just hear a bit about your background, what you focus on, and what you do at PGM before we get into it.

我在PGM Global负责全球宏观策略。

I run global macro strategy at PGM Global.

我们刚被国家银行收购了。

We were just acquired by National Bank.

所以我想我现在负责加拿大国家银行的全球宏观策略。

So I guess I run global macro strategy for National Bank of Canada.

我们主要做的事情是为机构投资者提供跨资产的可操作交易建议。

Essentially what we do is we put out actionable trades cross asset for institutional investors.

我基本上就是试图弄清楚世界上正在发生什么，哪些叙事在极端方向上走得太远，然后为接下来会发生的事情做好准备。

I really just try to figure out like what's going on in the world, where have the narratives gone too far on either of the extremes and then positioning for what comes next.

太好了。

Sweet.

很棒。

Awesome.

好。

Good

欢迎你。

to have you.

我现在被加拿大人包围了。

I'm I'm outnumbered now with the Canadians.

别别，别一起针对我。

Don't don't gang up on me.

加拿大宏观策略的人才确实不少。

There's a good cohort of Canadian macro types.

有

There's

尤其是蒙特利尔。

Especially Montreal.

那里……

It's...

那边基础很好。

There's a good base there.

对，没错。

You got a yeah.

凯文·缪尔，我们刚说到你最近上了他的节目，对，而且几年前你也在Foreguidance上过，那时候还是杰克在主持。

Kevin Muir, we're talking about you're on his show recently and yeah, you were on foreguidance a couple years ago back when Jack was running it too.

那是杰克在谈论中国和资本支出周期，基本上就是政策制定者在想什么，以及他们一直在努力做什么。

That was Jack talking about China and the the CapEx cycle and and basically like the the policymakers are thinking and what they've been trying to do.

那是我第一次接触前瞻性指引。

That was my first intro to forward guidance.

然后，是的，杰克已经离开了，

And then, yeah, Jack's moved on,

他去了自己的新天地，

He's moved on onto his own pastures, is

挺好的。

cool.

是啊，兄弟。

Yeah, man.

好吧。

All right.

那我们不如从利率和美联储开始吧，因为那仍然是……

Well, why don't we start with rates in the Fed because that continues to

现在可是大家热议的话题。

be the talk of the town right now.

挺有意思的，对吧？要知道，就在上周，市场还觉得……

Pretty interesting, know, obviously like a week ago, it

十月份加息几乎是板上钉钉的事了。

looked like another hike was baked into the cake for October.

我记得当时加息的概率一度高达70%左右，但最近几天这个概率大幅回落了。这主要是受一份PC数据的影响，表面上看这份数据不及预期，不过我知道里面好像也调整了一些统计方法，这点还挺有意思的。

I think we got as high as like seventy percent odds of a hike and that's come back pretty substantially in the in the past couple days off a PC print that, you know, missed on the surface, but I know there was also some changes to the methodology there, which is kind of interesting.

所以我也不太清楚。

So I don't know.

不过，这也正好赶上了GDP增速高于预期的情况，我觉得这为我们接下来的讨论奠定了基础，让我们试着搞清楚到底是什么在推动这些债券收益率。

But it's also, like, came off the back of higher than expected GDP growth, which I think sets up this conversation for us to try to figure out of what the hell is driving these bond yields.

但确实，收益率最近稍微回落了一点，现在大家看整体基准情景，这点挺有意思的。

But yeah, obviously that's given back a little bit and now we're looking like the the base case as a whole, which is interesting.

今天美联储那边出来了一大堆官员讲话。

We had a shit ton of Fed speak come out today.

我们刚才在试着数今天有多少美联储委员会成员发言。

We were just trying to sum up the amount of Fed committee members that were talking.

有卡什卡里，还有杰弗里斯、鲍曼，可能还漏了一个。

There's like Kashkari, there's Jefferies, Bowman, probably missing another one.

但我们

But We

我觉得之前沃勒也发言了。

had Waller earlier, I think.

对……

Exact...

所以，是的，两年期国债因此涨了不少。

So, yeah, the two year rallied pretty hard off it.

所以现在我在想，也许我们得暂停一下。

So now I'm kinda thinking maybe we gotta pause.

我不知道。

I don't know.

Aidan，你现在怎么看利率？

Aidan, how are you thinking about rates right now?

我觉得我们一开始，2025年的时候，我们的观点是，你知道，这些都有记录，美联储和财政部需要扩大资产负债表并加息，对吧？

So I think we start, so in 2025, we were of the view and you know, there's all this in writing, some, the Fed, Fed Treasury needs to expand the balance sheet and hike rates, right?

这个观点在过去一年大部分时间里都是我们的看法，当时我觉得挺有争议的，但实际发生的情况就是这样。

And that's kind of been our view for the better part of the last year which was hugely, I think controversial but that's actually what's played out here.

不是美联储在扩大资产负债表，而是财政部、RMOs，还有财政部的回购计划，同时美联储在加息。

It hasn't been the Fed that's been expanding its balance sheet but you've had the treasury, you've had RMOs and then you've had the treasury buyback plan while the Fed's hiking.

所以现在讨论的是，好吧，有没有通胀？

And so what it's some, you know, now the discussion is, okay, is there inflation?

是不是财政方面的担忧真正在推动长端利率？

Is there fiscal worries that are really driving the long end of the curve?

至少在美国，我觉得不是这样。

And at least in The US, I don't think that's the case.

我觉得只是市场一直在为美联储更高的终端利率定价，对吧？

I think it's just the market has been pricing in a higher terminal rate for the Fed, right?

我觉得这一点很重要，因为我认为美联储和财政部想要实现的是增长的广泛化。但从宏观角度来看，这一点之所以重要，是因为美国经济和欧洲之间真的存在一种对立。美国这边，美联储可以说是顶着强劲的经济在收紧政策，名义GDP也摆在那里。而欧洲那边，欧洲央行看起来就像《辛普森一家》里的Sideshow Bob，草地上到处都是耙子，他走到哪儿都会踩到耙子，然后被砸到脸。这就像是被迫犯下的政策错误，对吧？

And I think this is important because of I think what the Fed and Treasury want to achieve which is a broadening out of growth But then the reason from a macro perspective, the reason that this is important is it really there's like this dichotomy between The US economy where, you know, like the Fed's kind of tightening into strength arguably with nominal GDP where it's at and then Europe where the ECB just looks like you ever see like there's like Sideshow Bob on The Simpsons where there's like rakes on the grass and like they just everywhere he turns, he just steps into the rakes that hits him in It's the like just like forced policy, you know, mistakes, right?

他们是在供应短缺和滞胀的情况下加息。

Where so they're hiking into like supply shortages and stagflation.

所以我觉得这就是那个重要的对立，对吧？

So I think like that's the important dichotomy, right?

当我们聚焦到美国时，我准备了一大堆图表，但如果你翻到第七页，在第七页的右上角，你可以看到我分解了美国国债收益率上升的一些所谓原因。

And as we zoom into The US, I provided a pretty massive chart deck here, but if you go to page seven, on the top right of page seven, you can see I've broken down what like some of the purported causes of the increase in US Treasury.

浅蓝色的线是十年期国债收益率。

So you have the light blue line, which is the ten year Treasury yield.

对，它飙升了。

Okay, that's surged.

通胀预期实际上并没有怎么变动。

You have inflation expectations, which actually haven't budged all that much.

它们低于2.4%的目标吗？

Are they below target at 2.4%?

对，但这种情况已经持续了大概六年了，对吧？

Yeah, but like they've been here for like for six years, right?

大家应该习惯了，并没有大幅上升。然后你看各种期限溢价指标，海因茨，这有点学术化，但本质上就是持有长期国债所需的额外补偿，因为你对增长和通胀前景不确定。

Like get used to it, hasn't really picked up dramatically and then when you look at various measures of the term premium, which Heinz, you know, is a bit academic but essentially it's just the extra premium that you need to be compensated with to hold long term treasuries because you're uncertain of the growth and inflation outlook.

财政挥霍和通胀不确定性应该在这里体现出来，但并没有太大变化。

This is where the fiscal you know, profligacy and inflation like uncertainty would be showing up hasn't really moved all that much.

所以，当你看到十年期国债收益率时，传统观点认为高通胀预期或财政担忧是主要原因，但这些似乎并不是主要推动因素。

So, when you look at ten year yields, the conventional wisdom of higher inflation expectations or fiscal concerns like those don't really seem to be behind it all that much.

相反，如果你翻到第11页，看左上角的图表，我分解了我认为真正驱动这一现象的因素，黑线是所谓的ACM Adrian crunch模型对十年期风险中性利率的估计。

Rather if you were to go to page 11, and you look at the top left hand chart, I break down what I think is really driving it here, which is the black line is something called like the ACM Adrian crunch model for the ten year risk neutral rate.

这就是市场对美联储长期利率路径的定价。

So, this is where the market is pricing the Fed to be over like the longer term.

这确实随着美联储点阵图和十年期国债收益率的上升而上升。

This is really increased corresponding with moves up in the Fed dots and the ten year Treasury.

所以，把这两张图结合起来看，至少在美国，信息是：推动国债收益率上升的主要因素不是通胀担忧或财政担忧，而是市场在说，嘿，美联储需要进一步加息。

So, sum these last two charts together and the message at least in The US is that it isn't inflation worries or like fiscal worries necessarily that are driving the broad part of Treasury yields higher, but it's actually just the Fed the market saying like, hey, the Fed needs to needs to hike more.

你可能会问，为什么美联储需要进一步加息呢？

And you might ask well, why does the Fed need to hike more?

为什么市场会这样定价？

Why is the market pricing this in?

现在翻到第16页，我想借用瑞克·詹姆斯或者戴夫·查佩尔模仿瑞克·詹姆斯的那句话来说，名义GDP真是个厉害的东西。但如果名义GDP增长6.6%，信贷增长3%，

So now you go to page 16 and you know, I guess to paraphrase like, you know, Rick James or Dave Chappelle as Rick James like nominal GDP is a hell of a drug, but if you got nominal GDP 6.6% credit growth at 3%.

你希望十年期国债收益率在4%左右，而美联储利率在3%，这根本说不通。

You want ten year treasuries at like 4% with the Fed at three like it just it doesn't make sense.

你需要把美联储更鹰派的货币政策纳入定价，在我看来，这才是真正推动这一切的原因。

You need to price in more hawkish monetary policy from the Fed and that's what has really been behind it in my view.

现在，我觉得这有点让美联储担心的是，如果你看美国当前的经济增长，它非常狭窄，无论是从劳动力市场的角度，还是从推动GDP增长的因素来看。

Now, why this I think is a bit worrying for the Fed is if you look at economic growth in The US right now, it is very narrow both from a labor market perspective, but then also just like what's driving GDP perspective of growth.

增长相当集中，真的就是超大规模数据中心支出，对吧？

It's fairly narrow like it really is hyperscaler spending, right?

所以，我们可以稍微详细地看看这些数据，但如果你留在第16页，看右下角的图表，美国私人非住宅建筑支出。

And so, I mean, we can look at this stuff a little bit in some detail here but if you look at you stay on page 16, you look at the bottom right hand chart, US private non residential construction spending.

所以，你知道，之前有“重建更好未来”计划，还有拜登的一些政策来支持工业活动，这导致了深蓝色线（制造业）的上升。

So, you had, you know, Build Back Better, you have said some of Biden's policies to reassure industrial activity that's responsible for the increase in the dark blue line, which is manufacturing.

那些工厂基本上已经建好了，现在你看到的活动真的在放缓。

Those factories are basically built and you're seeing activity is really slowing.

相反，现在有的是电力供应或电力建设，这是为了数据中心，然后还有数据中心本身的建设，这被归在办公楼类别里。

Instead, what you have now is power supply or power construction, which is for the data centers and then the data center construction themselves, which is included in office.

就是这里的绿色线。

That's that green line here.

这两条线都在上升。

Those are both going up.

所以你看，如果你是美联储或者政策制定者。

So you're looking, see you're the Fed or you're a policymaker.

你会想，名义GDP是6.6%，但所有这些都是由AI驱动的。

You're like, well look nominal GDP is 6.6% but all of that's being driven by AI.

现在有很多讨论说，也许AI模型开发会放缓，电力不够，没人希望后院有数据中心，而且中国的模型也一样好。

And now there's all this discussion about maybe like the we got a slow down on AI model development and there's not enough electricity and nobody wants a data center in their backyard and you know, our Chinese models just as good.

所以，从那个角度看，增长有一些令人担忧的因素。然后，在我们讨论我认为美联储真正想实现什么之前，我很快提一下劳动力市场。如果你翻到第30页，我为这一页上这么多文字道歉。

So you have these like, you know, worrying elements of growth from that aspect and then the other, then I'll just touch on the labour market very quickly before we get into what I think the Fed is trying to like really achieve here but if you go to page 30, and I apologize for all the text on this page.

第30页左上角的图表显示的是超大规模企业的资本支出。

So, the top left hand chart on page 30 just shows hyperscaler CapEx spending.

这是美国经济增长的主要驱动力。

This is driven the lion's share of growth in The US.

我把它分解为亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta和微软。

So, I break it down Amazon, Alphabet and Meta, Microsoft.

这些数据实际上来自他们报告的内容。

The data is taken from actually what they've reported.

他们所做的是基于共识预测，展望到2026年年中之后。

So, what they've done were from consensus estimates as we look past midway of twenty twenty six.

所以，当你看到这些数据时，你会发现2026年超大规模企业AI资本支出的同比增长率超过了90%。

So, when you look at this data, what you see is 2026, the growth rate in hyperscaler AI CapEx was over 90% year over year.

所以，难怪名义GDP几乎达到7%。

So no surprise you have nominal GDP printing like almost 7%.

但明年，这个增速预计会降到接近35%。

But next year, that's forecast to fall to close to 35%.

但如果你仔细看这些超大规模企业透露的信息，你会发现很多资本支出从经济角度来看并不是真正的实际支出，而是名义上的。

But then when you drill down into a lot of what the hyperscalers are telling you, a lot of this CapEx spend isn't like real quote unquote from an economic perspective, it's nominal.

比如亚马逊，他们出来说，内存价格将吸收我们2026年AI数据中心支出的30%，而2023到2024年只有8%。微软也一样，在1900亿美元的指引中，我认为有250亿美元只是因为芯片短缺和那些限制导致的价格上涨。

Like Amazon has, you know, they came out and they said essentially like memory prices are going to absorb 30% of our 2026 AI data center spend versus just 8% in twenty twenty three-twenty four and then ditto in Microsoft as well, out of like the 190,000,000,000 guide, I think like 25,000,000,000 has just higher pricing because of the chip shortage and all of those constraints.

所以我们想，等等，这对实际GDP增长来说可不是什么好兆头。

So, we're like, wait a minute, this doesn't bode super well for real GDP growth.

而且，对劳动力市场的影响也确实很有限。

And then, you know, the impact on the labor market has really just been narrow as well.

我在右上角总结了三个表格。

You know, I sum up three tables here on the top right.

我觉得，Quinn你之前发过一些图表，说最近几次数据中劳动力市场动态已经扩大了，不只是医疗和教育，而是更广泛的行业。

I look at this, I think Quinn you posted some charts talking about how labour market dynamics have broadened out recently in the last couple of prints where it's not just health and education but it's kind of you know broader sectors than that.

确实如此。

That's true.

所以，看右上角，商品行业，也就是商品生产行业，正在创造很多就业机会。

So, on the top right you can see like the goods industry, goods producing industry, they're creating a lot of jobs.

左下角是建筑业，显然是因为数据中心，然后右下角是商业、专业和商业服务支持服务行业。

The bottom left construction obviously for the data centers and then bottom right business and professional and business service support service industries.

但我把所有这些细项都拆开来看，仔细过一遍，基本上都是数据中心和AI资本支出在推动。

But so I break down all the light items here and when you go through it, it's basically all data center AI CapEx driven.

所以，这个经济现在严重偏向AI数据中心和资本支出。

So you have this economy that's so heavily tilted towards AI data center and CapEx.

与此同时，房地产市场简直被彻底摧毁了。

Meanwhile, housing has been like absolutely destroyed.

然后你翻到第36页，看左上角的图表，我展示了房屋开工量，以及住宅建筑和非住宅建筑的就业情况。

So you go to page 36 and if you look at the top left hand chart on page 36, I show housing starts versus employment in residential construction and non resi construction.

我之所以关注房地产市场，是因为失业率通常可能是经济周期的一个同步指标。

So the reason why I focus on the housing market is, you know, unemployment generally is this maybe like a commensurate indicator of the economic cycle.

它不会领先，要么是实时，要么是滞后一点，对吧？

Like it doesn't lead, it's either like real time or it lags a bit, right?

但你能从这张图看到，住宅建筑行业的就业情况是经济的领先指标。

But what you can see in this chart is residential construction employment is a leading indicator for the economy.

它领先于你看到的所有那些衰退区间，因为当有房屋销售、人们买房时，他们会去家得宝。

It leads all those recession bands that you see just because like when there's, you know, home sales people are buying homes, they're buying like, you know, they're going to Home Depot.

他们会买洗碗机，他们就是在花钱。

They're buying dishwashers like they're spending.

所以这往往会推动经济，而现在这已经明显放缓了。

So it tends to drive the economy and now that's really slowed.

所以如果你是美联储，现在翻到第37页，看右下角的图表，我们真正需要做的是降低30年期抵押贷款利率，以重启房地产市场。

So if you're the Fed and now you go to page 37 like well, what we really need to do on the bottom right hand chart is get thirty year mortgage rates lower to restart the housing market.

那我们该怎么做呢？

So how do we do that?

嗯，我们不能降息，因为如果降息，就会增加债券波动率，增加抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）的波动率，你知道，抵押贷款利率会飙升，国债收益率会大幅上涨。

Well, we can't cut rates because if we cut rates, then you're going to increase bond vol, you're going to increase mortgage backed security vol, MBS, you know, like mortgage rates are going to spike, treasury yields are going to rip higher.

那解决不了任何问题。

That's not going to solve anything.

所以我们需要做的，基本上就是市场已经落后于形势了。

So what we need to do is basically market things were behind the curve.

好的，没问题。

Okay, cool.

咱们来谈谈紧缩政策，试着把收益率曲线压平，然后希望长期端——也就是实体经济中大部分借贷发生的地方——利率能降下来，这样你就能有一个更平稳的增长前景，而不是仅仅基于超大规模芯片支出的名义GDP。

Let's hike talk about tightening policy, try to flatten the curve and then hopefully like that flatter long end which is where like most borrowing in the real economy is done comes down and then you can you have a more even keeled kind of growth outlook here rather than just nominal GDP based on hyperscalers chips pending, seems like.

太棒了。

Banger.

非常有意思。

Super interesting.

我同意很多观点，但也有一些问题。

I I agree with a lot, and I have some questions as well.

关于利率的变动，我同意这主要是美联储利率路径的重新定价。

I think in regards to the rates move, would agree that it's been predominantly Fed rate path rerating.

我觉得今天这一点甚至更明显。

I think you can even see that more narrowly today.

不能把一天的交易活动当成全部。

Don't want to take one day's trading activity as everything.

但是当他们派出一大堆美联储发言人，你知道，这为前瞻性指引设定了基调，直到他们

But when they sent their onslaught of you know, Fed speakers, which, you know, war shates for forward guidance until until they

需要这么做。

need to do it.

他的老板拍拍你的肩膀说，嘿，去把股市推高，把利率压低。

His boss taps you on the shoulder and says, Hey, go get equities higher and rates down.

所以战争派出了一个团队，我是说，我们可能在一天内增加的发言人比之前很多次都多。

So then war sends the team of like, I mean, we might add more speakers today in one day than we had in many, many other instances before.

这确实影响了整条收益率曲线。

That really did affect the whole curve.

它极大地陡化了曲线，因为它把前端利率压低了很多，并推高了期货，但也帮助了长端。

It steepened the curve tremendously because it brought the front end down a lot more and brought sulfur futures higher, but it did help the long end as well.

我同意这一点。

I do agree with that.

不过有意思的是，如果这样发展下去，我确实觉得数据会继续走强。

It's interesting, though, because playing this out, I do think that the data.

无论是就业数据还是通胀，至少未来一两个月甚至三个月，可能都会比较强劲。

Will continue to come in hot, both probably jobs, at least for the next month or two or three and an inflation, too.

而且我不禁在想，这些美联储官员会不会也像沃勒前两次那样，最后弄得自己脸上无光。

And I can't help but think or wonder, are these, you know, Fed members going to be succumbing to the same.

你知道，沃勒前两次出来讲话，市场先往一个方向走，然后数据一出来，直接把门给关上了。

You know, egg on the face as as Waller did the last two times when he came out, market moved one way and then we get data that just basically shuts the door.

或者用鲍威尔的话说，就是把门狠狠摔上，彻底否定不需要收紧的说法。

Or in Powell's term, slam the fucking door or whatever, on the idea that we don't they don't need to tighten.

所以这真的是一场非常微妙的市场管理游戏。

And so it's this very delicate game of market management.

而且我也同意你的看法，只要利率继续走高，经济确实很脆弱。

And I do think you're correct, too, in that the economy is vulnerable so long as rates move higher.

我真正看不到出路的是，他们怎么才能把长期利率压下来。考虑到通胀前景、大宗商品价格前景、战争因素，还有他们一直在刺激经济而经济表现还不错，我真不知道他们怎么才能压低长期利率来帮助房地产和其他领域。

What I'm not really seeing a path toward is how they get the long end lower, given the inflation outlook, given the commodity price outlook, given the war, given they keep stimulating and the economy's fine, I don't know how they get the long end lower to help housing and all these things.

先发制人，因为他们这么做的时候，你知道，自从八月份干预以来，还有他们持续的股票回购等等，这些都在让通胀问题变得更糟。

Preemptively, because when they do this, I'll, you know, best since intervention in August and you know, their continued buybacks and all these things, they just are making the inflation problem worse.

他们把股市推高了。

They're sending equities higher.

今天我在推特上发了一张图表。

It's today I tweeted a chart of.

就在他们压低收益率的那一刻，油价涨得比纳斯达克和股票还高。

The moment that they got that yields down, sent oil higher than it sent the NASDAQ and stocks.

所以这有点像在推一根绳子，因为你所有支持股市、刺激经济和注入流动性的行动，都直接流向了大宗商品，这反而让收益率问题更严重了。

So you're pushing on a string in a way here because all of your actions to support equity markets and stimulate and juice liquidity are flowing directly into commodities, which then makes the yield problem worse.

所以到了某个时候，市场在试图传递一个信息，那就是你需要停止刺激，这样我们才能重新调整收益率，然后希望能带来一些缓解。

So at some point, the market's trying to send a message here, which is you need to stop juicing things in order for us to then be able to recalibrate yields to then hopefully provide some relief.

因为如果不这样，你基本上就得直接进入量化宽松的收益率曲线控制，但这又会继续同样的问题，因为我觉得，一方面，答案是降低长期收益率，但另一方面，他们一直在……

Because without that, you basically have to go straight into QE yield curve control, which again continues the same thing because I think You know, on one hand, the answer is lower long end yields, but on the other hand, they've been.

朝着那个方向走，虽然用的是小工具，不是大火箭筒。

Moving in that direction, granted with with small tools, not not big bazookas.

这继续让主街的小企业处境更糟。

And that's continued to make the problem for the Main Street businesses worse.

房屋建筑商、地区银行、等权重指数、小盘股、公用事业。

Homebuilders, regional banks, equal weight, small caps, utilities.

这些领域因为他们的刺激措施和干预而遭受重创，因为他们试图对抗自由市场力量。

These things are getting decimated because of their actions that are stimulating, inducing, because they're trying to fight free market forces.

然后科技股和AI。

And then tech and the A.

AI。

I.

相关交易保持韧性，就像你指出的那样，这很合理。

Trade stays resilient, which, like you pointed out, makes sense.

支出还在继续。

The spending is continuing.

所以这是一个非常不稳定的局面，因为其中很大一部分短期内不受自由市场力量的影响，而很大一部分是政策制定者的干预。

So it's a very precarious situation because so much of it is not being impacted by free market forces in the short term, and so much of it is policymaker intervention.

但中期来看，你想想，总会有某种形式的报应。

But medium term, you have to imagine, you know, the chickens will come home to roost in some fashion.

嗯，这就像我们的政策制定者会在任期内让自由市场接管并引发衰退，还是他们会继续尝试用各种拼凑的政策来应对，让这一切继续下去。

Well, it's just like our policymaker is going to let free markets take over on their watch and cause a recession or are they just gonna keep trying to like, you know, audible their way through whatever like hodgepodge of policies they can to keep this thing going.

我的意思是，你在信贷方面也看到了这一点，因为我觉得你们一直很准确地谈论可能的柴油或石油出口禁令，或者至少是限制。

And I mean, you're seeing this in credit to you because I think you guys have been on point for a while talking about like a possible diesel or oil export ban or at least restriction.

看起来，好吧，那这就是下一步，因为我们要努力降低通胀，对吧？

And it seems like, okay, So now that's the next step because we're going to try to get inflation down, right?

所以我觉得如果你是美联储，特别是本周出来讲话的一些官员。

And so I think if you're the Fed and specifically some of the speakers that have come out this week.

我觉得你看到的是，本周早些时候公布的通胀数据，只是略微低于市场对通胀的预期。

I think what you're looking at is the inflation print that we got earlier this week was like just mildly like under what the market was expecting in terms of inflation.

然后如果你去看第21页，我觉得美联储经常看的东西，在第20页左上角的图表，他们会看三个月年化的价格变化，这更像是一个通胀走向的指标，对吧？

And then if you were to go to look at page 21 of the things I think the Fed looks at quite a lot is on the top left hand chart of page 20, they will look at the three month annualized change in prices as kind of like a this is not so much like a leading indicator but kind of like a proxy for where inflation's going, right?

所以你把一个较温和的通胀数据，与如果至少看这些指标，核心通胀（不包括食品、能源和住房）正朝着2%左右下降的事实结合起来。

And so you take a softer inflation print with the fact that inflation if you at least look at these measures, core ex food, energy and shelter is trending lower towards like 2%.

那我们现在到了吗？

Now, are we there yet?

还没有，但我觉得这至少给了他们一些短期的喘息空间。

No, but I think this gives them at least some short term like breathing space here.

然后奎因，你说得对，是的，柴油价格在飙升，汽油价格在飙升，还有食品价格，没人提这个，我们有相关的幻灯片，也在飙升。

And then Quinn to your point, yeah, I think you have diesel prices ripping, you have gasoline prices ripping, you have food prices which no one's talking about that we have slides on that are ripping.

还有硫酸短缺，这限制了工业活动，没人谈论硫酸，就像你在2010年的《犯罪现场调查》里看到的那样，用来溶解尸体之类的，但你需要它来提炼金属。

You have a sulfuric acid shortage that's crimping like industrial activity and like no one talks about sulfuric acid like it's something you see in CSI from like 2010 when they're like dissolving bodies or something like that but you need this thing to refine metals.

你需要硫来制造化肥，它对全球经济太重要了，而霍尔木兹海峡关闭了，一半的设施被炸毁了，供应也断了。

You need sulfur for fertilizer like it's so important to the global economy and the Strait Of Hormuz is closed and half these facilities are bombed out and it's not coming.

所以我认为美联储的做法就像钓鱼，你不会一下子把鱼拉上来，对吧？

So what I think it is by the Fed is it's almost like you ever go fishing and you never just like reel the fish in all at once, right?

你会先拉一点，然后放一放，再拉回来，就这样和鱼玩这个游戏，等它累了，然后你知道，等鱼精疲力尽游不动了，再把它拉上船。

You kind of like you reel it in a bit then you let it go and then reel it in back you reel it back in and it kind of just play this game with the fish where it gets tired and then you know, you hoist it on board once the the fish is exhausted and can't swim away.

这样你的鱼饵就不会断。

So you don't break your lure.

我觉得，如果你想想美联储的政策和前瞻性指引，说到底，这些讲话都是为了这个，对吧？

I think that's if you think about like Fed policy and forward guidance, that's what all of these speeches are about at the end of the day, right?

他们就是想把这个利率变动的预期控制在一定范围内。所以现在他们有机会说点偏鸽派的话。

Is it's just they're trying to keep the rate move expectations within this certain range And so right now they're given the opportunity to talk a bit dovish.

好，行，他们就会这么做。

Okay, cool, they'll do that.

然后接下来，特朗普要么得禁止柴油出口，要么你会看到柴油价格飙升，通胀也跟着上来，然后我们又回到美联储承诺的2%目标，或者他们出来说点什么。

And then you're going to get like Trump's going to either have to ban diesel exports, you're going to see diesel prices rip filtering into inflation and then we're right back at, you know, the Fed's committed to 2% or whatever they're going to come out and say.

我想下一个问题是……

I guess like the next question for...

显然，这在很多方面对经济都是非常不利的。

Obviously this is like very clearly bad for the economy in a lot of ways.

很明显……

Like it's clear...

我的意思是，你知道，K型经济的说法现在变得越来越夸张了，因为……

I mean, you know, the characterization of the k shape economy is just getting more aggressive at this point because...

你说得对，住房市场很糟糕，再加上长期债券这么抛售，房贷利率都到7.5%了。

To your point, housing sucks And then you add in a long bond sell off like this, that makes mortgage rates at 7.5%.

这样一来，情况只会更糟。

Like there's, it's just going to suck even more.

没人买得起房子了。

Nobody can buy a house.

这周我们看到的消费者信心数据，简直糟透了。

You know, we got the, like some sentiment numbers this week, consumer sentiment numbers that were just awful.

但只要AI交易还在继续，大家就继续狂欢，还有那个建设飞轮效应。而且我觉得大家没怎么提到，企业利润增长很大一部分其实就是融资轮次的市值重估，比如谷歌的很多每股收益，就是他们投资AI实验室的估值提高了，直接反映在利润里。

And yet, as long as the AI, you know, trade goes on, it's party on and, know, you get the build out flywheel and you also get like, you know, I feel like it doesn't get talked enough about how so much of corporate profit growth is just the, basically the funding rounds getting mark to market, you know, like a lot of Google EPS is just like the investments they made in AI labs getting marked at a higher values and that goes to the bottom line.

所以我也说不准。

So I don't know.

这真是个刀尖上的平衡，但我的下一个想法是，如果我们知道长期利率走高是因为名义增长更高，虽然这有点虚，但只要不是由期限溢价担忧或通胀预期飙升驱动的，那从直觉上讲，主要指数离历史高点只差几个百分点，也是合理的。

I mean, it's such a knife edge, but at the same vein, if I guess my next thought there is, okay, if we know that the long end is being driven higher by higher nominal growth and yeah, sure, it's a Fugazi, whatever, but as long as it's not being driven by, you know, term premium worries or, you know, surging inflation expectations, I guess, you know, it does make intuitive sense that top line indices are only a couple percent away from all time highs.

如果十年期国债收益率接近6%只是因为名义GDP高得离谱，那这真的重要吗？先不管实际驱动因素和增长质量如何。

I mean, like, does it really matter if we get a ten year at almost 6% if it's being driven by just obscenely high nominal GDP, setting aside whatever is actually being driven and then the quality of that growth?

事实是，名义GDP在6%以上，十年期国债收益率在这个位置也说得通。

Like the fact of the matter is, is that you're at a, yeah, you're at a 6% and above end GDP and it just makes sense for the tenure to be here.

这对风险资产来说可能不是坏事。

And that may not be a bad thing for risk.

我不知道你们怎么看

I don't know what you guys think

这个问题。

about that.

对，名义GDP真是个神奇的东西。

Yeah, like nominal GDP is a hell of a drug.

而且现在这些AI超大规模公司都在推出智能体。

And then you have all these like AI hyperscalers coming up with like agents now.

然后你开始想象各种应用场景。

And then you start imagining the use cases.

所以，只要没有真正出问题，特朗普在发5000美元的支票，劳动力市场也没崩，市场就会继续往上走。

So, it's like the market just keeps running higher as long as nothing is actually breaking and Trump's giving away $5,000 checks and the labor market's not cracking.

我觉得美国股市在这里还能继续表现不错。

The US equities, I think, can continue to do well here.

嗯，至少是其中那部分窄幅的股票。

Well, at least the narrow section of them.

但再看看世界其他地方，他们没有超大规模数据中心的资本开支，AI也不多，还面临这些现实世界的制约，那些股市看起来就更让人谨慎了。

But then it's just the rest of the world where they don't have the hyperscaler CapEx, they don't have much AI and they're facing these real world constraints that those equity markets look more circumspect.

这个问题其实真的是政治性的，因为所有东西都在衰退。

The question, it really is political because everything is in a recession.

看看除了AI和科技七巨头之外的所有东西的价格。

Look at prices of everything except AI in Mag seven.

我是说，数据都印证了你刚才说的，劳动力数据。

I mean, the data go through everything you just said, the labor data.

除了AI领域，根本没有工作机会。

There's no jobs outside of AI.

看看股市就知道了。

Go through the stock market.

除了AI，其他领域都没有收益。

There's no gains outside of AI.

再看看那些超大规模企业的支出情况。

Go through the hyperscaler stuff and the spending.

所有的资本支出都集中在AI上。

It's all CapEx is AI.

这其实是个政治问题，因为他们选择刺激和引导这种只依赖AI的经济，结果变成了自我实现的预言，因为这样做，其他所有东西都被挤掉了。

It's a political question because they've chosen to stimulate and induce this AI only economy, which has then become a self fulfilling prophecy because by doing that, you crowd everything out.

从物理上，或者说我也不确定是不是物理上，但从结构上讲，你不可能同时让实体经济也火热，因为那样利率就得达到10%了。

Physically, or I don't know physically, but structurally, you can't have a hot Main Street economy, too, because then rates would be like 10%.

如果AI以外的经济主体真的有实际需求，名义增长会非常强劲，通胀会高得多，实际增长可能差不多，因为归根结底，经济是受产能限制的。

If there's actual demand from the bulk of the economy outside of AI, you'd have an absolutely booming nominal growth picture that would look much higher inflation, much higher real or maybe probably similar real because at the end of the day, the economy is capacity constrained.

这就是我们看到的现状。

That's what we're seeing.

电力方面存在产能限制。

It's capacity constrained in power.

电价在上涨。

Electricity prices are rising.

石油和大宗商品方面也存在产能限制。

It's capacity constrained in oil and commodities.

他们做的所有这些事情都让情况变得更糟，因为他们继续在产能受限的情况下刺激需求。

All these things they're doing worsen that because they continue to stoke demand into capacity constraints.

他们在讨论禁止柴油出口，这可能会减少柴油产量，因为生产商会因此降低炼油厂的利用率，减少生产。

They're talking about a diesel export ban that likely reduces the amount of diesel production because producers will then rein in refinery utilization rates, produce less.

再说一次，他们通过给终端消费者经济带来柴油价格下降的顺风来刺激经济。

Again, you're stimulating by giving it a tailwind boost to to the the end user consumer economy of lower diesel prices.

但这样做同时也限制了供应。

But then you're doing so by also crimping supply.

所以，他们还是在供应受限的情况下刺激需求。

So again, you're you're stoking demand into supply constraints.

所以归根结底，我认为这就是背后的主要驱动力。

So that's at the end of the day, what I think is is the driving force here.

你说得对，他们没兴趣停止这种做法，那就意味着……

And you're right, they have no appetite to stop that, which then means.

我们现在看到的情况是，你必须把通胀货币化，然后你得说，好吧，我们接受通胀，因为我们知道这些问题不是靠印钱能解决的，印钱解决不了供应问题。

What we're seeing, you have to monetize it, you have to then say, Okay, we're okay with inflation because we know these are not solvable things via the monetization doesn't fix the supply problems.

所以我们要么让供应问题自行修复，要么就用货币贬值来掩盖一切。

So we're either going to let the supply problems heal themselves or we're going to paper over everything with with debasement.

所以这真的很有意思，因为我们正在进入中期选举，我们知道这是一个在日历上非常有激励性的日期，从市场支持的角度来看，他们会试图推动一些事情。

And so it's really interesting because we're moving into midterms, which we know is a hugely incentivized date on the calendar to try and boost things into from like a market support perspective.

你知道，这一切也可能瞬间反转，如果他们突然说，不，我们要来一次清算。

You know, this could all flip on a dime in a sense on the other side if they did say, No, we want a clearing event.

我们要放掉一些泡沫。

We we're going to let some air out.

我们要让收益率降下来，这样普通民众那边才能更健康。

We're going to, you know, let yields come down so Main Street can be healthier on the other side.

所以美联储实际上不能表现得过于鹰派。

So the Fed actually cannot be hawkish.

我们打算让需求稍微降温。

We're going to let demand cool a bit.

但这很棘手。

But it's very tricky.

他们怎么做到这一点？

How do they thread that?

他们把AI捧上了神坛，让其他一切都衰落了。

They've put AI up on a pedestal and let everything else die.

在不引发更大裂痕的情况下，你怎么重新平衡这一切？

Without causing bigger ruptures, how do you basically rebalance that?

你怎么帮助所有工具来帮助普通民众，却让那个神坛越堆越高，只为了交易。

How do you help all of the tools to try and help Main Street just keeps the keeps the pedestal higher and higher for the trade.

所以要么你最终得制定一个政策来平衡这一切，要么就用铲子式的方法，把一切都一起拉下来。

So either at some point you have to figure out a policy that balances that or the shovel approach, which kind of takes everything down together.

这挺有意思的。

It's it's interesting.

嗯，我觉得这就像，你知道，就像我们以前有里根时代的涓滴经济学。

Well, I think what so it's almost like, you you know, like we had, like, Reagan with, like, trickle down economics.

现在政策处方似乎变成了涓滴市场，大部分情况下，富人受益，所以如果你翻到第17页，这些数字其实被低估了，因为富人不接电话也不参加调查。

Well, it seems like now the policy prescription has been, like, trickle down markets where for the most part, like the wealthy, so if you go to page 17 here, these numbers are actually understated because wealthy people don't respond to phone calls and do surveys.

但如果你看右边，中间有个表格，标题是“迎合富人”。

But if you look at the, so in the, on the towards the right, there's a table right in the middle called catering to the wealthy.

这是来自劳工统计局的数据。

This is from the BLS.

这是消费者支出调查。

It's the consumer expenditure survey.

这是按十分位数划分的总消费。

It is total aggregate consumption broken out by decile.

所以你看这里，奎因，正如你所说，美国是消费驱动的经济体。

So what you see here Quinn to your point is like US is a consumption driven economy.

对。

Okay.

你看，最底层的30%人口，他们的总消费占比不到15%。

Well, look at like the bottom 30% they account for less than 15% of total consumption.

再看第九个十分位，也就是第二富的那个群体，光他们自己就占了15.4%。而且如果你再深入分析一下，实际上这个数字差不多要翻倍，因为有钱人根本不回应这些调查。

You look at the ninth decile, like the second wealthiest decile, that alone is 15.4% and actually like if you do some deeper dive work, it actually ends up showing that it's basically double that because wealthy people don't respond to the surveys.

所以，你根本得不到一个准确的数据。

So, you're not getting a clean read.

所以基本上，股市就是经济。因为这是一个消费驱动的经济体，而消费又是由富人拉动的，他们消费的依据是股价的走势，因为股价对他们财富效应的影响，比劳动收入带来的影响要大得多。

So, you basically have the stock market is the economy because you have a consumption driven economy that is driven by wealthy people who are consuming based on what stock prices are doing because that's that's a bigger part of their wealth effect than what they're getting from labor.

所以，你只需要保持这个。

So, you just need to keep this.

你得让这些轮子继续转下去，然后我觉得希望在于——你知道，我跟很多机构投资者聊过。

You need to keep these like wheels turning and then you're I think like the hope is and you know, I talked to a lot of institutional investors.

所以，你知道，我跟很多人聊过，他们问我，艾丹，现在名义国债收益率是5.30%，比如十年期国债收益率是5.30%，或者5.20%，实际收益率有250到300个基点。

So, you know, I talked to a lot of people who are asking me like Aidan, you have nominal treasury yields at $5.30, like ten year treasury yields at $5.30, let's say, or $5.20, you have real, you have like $2.50 to 300 basis points of real yield.

我是不是该开始买入了？

Do I just start buying?

所以，希望在于美国的财政状况看起来比世界其他地方要好，因为欧洲、日本等地存在供应短缺、成本推动和财政动态等问题。

And so, think the hope is that The US fiscal side looks better than what you see in the rest of the world because of like the supply shortage, cost push, fiscal dynamics in Europe and Japan and elsewhere.

然后你会看到对美债的买盘更强劲。

And then you get a stronger bid into treasuries.

另外，也许你知道，这是一份120页的报告。

And then the other thing like maybe, you know, this is a 120 page deck.

报告里我最喜欢的图表可能是第10页上的那张。

My favorite chart maybe in the deck is what you see on page 10.

我觉得如果你持有加密货币，这张图会特别引起你的共鸣。

I think like if you own crypto, this is going to resonate like very well with you.

对，就是第10页右下角的那张。

Nice, which is on the bottom right of page 10.

你看标普500指数，是以黄金计价还是以美元计价，对吧？

You look at the S and P 500 in gold terms or in dollar terms, right?

以黄金计价的是蓝色，以美元计价的是红色。

Gold terms is in blue dollar terms is in red.

股票上涨很大程度上不是股票在涨，而是美元在跌，对吧？但确实，这就是底线。

So much of stocks going up isn't stocks going up like dollars going down because but yeah, it's the basement right?

当你用黄金来计价标普500时，我们其实基本持平，而且低于2008年的水平。

When you show S and P 500 in gold terms, like we're actually like flat and we're below like we're 2,008 levels.

所以我觉得他们想做的就是保持美国经济70%靠消费。

So I think like this is what they're trying to do is we've got to keep The US economy 70% consumption.

我们必须让这个继续下去。

We got to keep that going.

否则，财政前景、政府支出、社会凝聚力等方面会有更大的问题。

Otherwise, there's like wider problems with fiscal outlook, government spending, social cohesion, all that stuff.

所以你必须保持消费，而富人至少占消费的60%，穷人反正会把赚的钱都花掉，因为他们需要这样做。

So you've got to keep the consumption going while the wealthy represent like at least 60% consumption and like the poor people they're just going to consume everything they make anyway because they're like, that's just what they need to do.

所以一方面你有这个循环，另一方面就是，我们怎么才能不失去对国债市场的控制？

So you kind of have that loop on the one side and then on the other side it's well, okay, how do we not lose control of the treasury market?

所以我们试过RMOs。

So we've tried RMOs.

现在我们打算在夏天推出国债回购计划。

Now we're going to do like treasury buybacks that best rolled out over the summer.

我们已经到了这个地步，特朗普基本上在告诉全世界，抱歉各位，但柴油什么的，你们自己想办法吧。

We're at the point where yeah, and now we're at the point where Trump is basically telling the rest of the world like, sorry, guys, but, like, diesel, like, figure out figure out something.

你们自己搞定吧。

You're on your own.

这引出了一个老问题，我们在2022年最后一次加息周期里都绞尽脑汁想弄明白的，那就是，在这个经济环境下，加息到底能真正达到什么效果？

Think this brings up the age old question that we're all kinda racking our brains on in in the last hiking cycle 2022, which is that, like, what does a rate hike truly achieve in this economy?

你刚才展示了消费最高的那10%都是有钱人。

Where you just showed how the top decile of consumption are the wealthy people.

而且是有钱人持有国库券。

And it's the wealthy people that own T bills.

不是有钱人，抱歉，不是收入最低的那部分人在货币市场基金里，对吧？

It's not the wealthy people that, sorry, it's not the lower decile that are in money market funds, right?

所以，好吧，你加息25个基点。

So, okay, You hike 25 bps.

那你得到了什么？

What do you achieve?

嗯，最富的那10%的消费群体，他们的国债收益率又涨了25个基点。

Well, that top consumption decile just got 25 bps increase on their T bill yield.

而且，你知道，他们其实不太……

And, you know, they don't really...

如果他们，比如说大公司之类的，就像你说的，大部分经济活动都发生在长期利率那边。

If if they're, know, say the big corporations, whatever, like you said, most of the economic activity happens on the long end.

是的，长期利率确实上升了。

Yes, it's risen.

但如果只看短期利率，那又……

But if we just look at the short rate, what does that...

就像，那次加息到底给我们带来了什么？除了给最富的那10%的收入者又多了20到25个基点的国债收益率。

Like, what did that hike really achieve for us if other than just to give the top decile income earners another 20 bps, 25 bps to their T bill yield.

我就觉得，你知道，这引出了下一个问题，我不知道你对现代货币理论怎么看，但确实，加息本质上到底是刺激经济还是不是？

Like, I just, you know, that's, that gets to the next question that, you know, I don't know where you stand on the MMT side of thing, but yeah, like, was a rate hike actually just stimulative or not, basically?

我觉得说到底，美联储这次加息真正做到的，就是向市场表明美联储还是值得信任的。因为你看加息之前，对吧？

You know, I think at the end of the day, all the Fed hike really did was show the market that Fed is still that you can still kind of trust the Fed and you know, because you look before that that hike, right?

你看那些CNBC的文章，基本上都在问沃什是不是特朗普的傀儡。

And you look at like CNBC articles where they're basically asking is, is Warsh a sock puppet for Trump?

至少现在他加息了。

Like at least now he hiked.

特朗普可能不太喜欢这样。

Trump probably maybe doesn't like that.

所以这给了美联储一些信誉，但我觉得也就这样了，菲利克斯，我不觉得这对通胀有多大影响。

And so it gives the Fed some credibility, but that's really all I think it does to your point Felix, I don't think it really impacts inflation all that much.

我觉得这影响的只是美联储的信誉，而这才是对长端收益率曲线有点帮助的地方。

I think it just impacts Fed credibility which then is what's helping moderately at the long end of the curve.

对，我觉得还有一个有意思的角度来看这个事情的规模，就是你看三十年期收益率，今天到了5.6%。

Yeah, I think another way that's interesting to frame the magnitude of what's going on is if if you look at the thirty year yield, it's at 5.6% today.

六个月前，还是4.6。

Six months ago, it was at 4.6.

所以它上升了100个基点，你知道，在一年内很短的时间里就涨了这么多。

So it increased 100 basis points, you know, over more than that over the course of this year in a very short amount of time.

这相当于，咱们就说100个基点的房贷成本吧。

And that equates, let's just say that's 100 basis points of mortgage cost.

我觉得实际上可能更高，因为房贷利率涨得更多。

I think actually it's been higher because I think mortgage rates have gone up more.

这对那些依赖贷款的人来说基本上就是。

That's basically for people that are reliant upon financing.

他们能负担得起的房子要小11%，或者更便宜，也就是原来88%、89%大小或价格的房子。

They can afford like an 11% less, you know, smaller or cheaper house, you know, 88, 89%, you know, sized or priced house.

所以那些依赖贷款、没有资产的人，受到的打击非常大。

So the people that rely on this on financing and don't have assets, it's an incredibly hard hit.

然后你看未来的前景，你会想，好吧，油价还在涨，通胀还在涨。

Then you look at the forward outlook and you're like, Okay, oil's still moving higher, inflation's still moving higher.

他们还在刺激经济，对吧？

They're still stimulating, right?

比如，收益率在上升，因为经济通胀很热，而他们还在继续刺激经济。

Like, yields are rising because the economy inflation are hot and they're still doing things to stoke it.

所以，你想想看，30年期国债收益率4.6%这个水平，未来几年我们还能回到吗？

So then, like, you think about it and you're like, is 4.6% on the thirty year even a level we're going to get back to in the next few years?

你看图表，这是多年来的一个突破，从一个相当有趣的形态中突破出来，可能不太可能回到那个水平。

Like, when you look at the chart, this is a multi year breakout out of a, you know, out of a pretty interesting pattern that like probably not.

所以基本上，假设和10年期一样，从多年图表的角度来看，这次突破是相当实质性的。

So what level basically, like assuming this, like same with the ten year, the breakout was pretty material from like a multi year chart perspective.

那么，刺激措施、补助金、印钞，不管以什么形式，需要达到什么程度，才能让那些受冲击最严重的人恢复到正常或良好状态？

What is the level of stimulus and handouts and money printing and what whatever, you know, form it takes going to need to be to then get the people who are hit the hardest by this up back to like par or good.

而且，就像我说的，你可以在房屋建筑商那里看到这一点。

And you can, like I said, you can see that in homebuilders.

你可以在地区银行和小盘股中看到这一点。

You can see that in regional banks in small caps.

所有这些公司和行业受冲击最严重，它们代表了普通民众。

Those all those companies and sectors being hit the hardest, they're representative of Main Street.