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你想听听我最疯狂的订阅者故事吗？
You wanna hear my craziest subscriber story?
一个来自德国的年轻人订阅了我的通讯。
This young kid from Germany subscribed to my newsletter.
好吧，一年后，他取消了订阅。
Well, after a year, he unsubscribed.
我当时想，天哪。
I was like, oh my god.
这太糟糕了。
That sucks.
然后一年后，他给我发了邮件，告诉我他当了皮条客。
And then a year later, he emailed me, and he told me that he became a pimp.
别说了。
Stop.
别说了。
Stop.
他说他发了
He he said and so he sent
他
me He
改变了我的人生，兄弟。
changed my life, dude.
是的。
Yeah.
他停下了。
He he stopped.
他就是这么说的。
That's what he said.
他说是我教会他成为企业家的。
He said I taught him to be an entrepreneur.
在开始之前，提醒大家一下，Blockworks的顶级机构会议——数字资产峰会，今年三月将重返纽约。
Before we get started, a quick reminder that Blockworks' premier institutional conference, the Digital Asset Summit, is returning to New York City this March.
今年管理的资产超过4.2万亿美元，将有150位演讲者和750家机构参会。
This year represents more than $4,200,000,000,000 in assets under management with a 150 speakers and 750 institutions attending.
演讲者包括SEC主席保罗·阿特金斯、CFTC主席迈克尔·塞利格、美联储理事斯蒂芬·莫兰以及Tether首席执行官保罗·阿多尼奥，还有无数其他高管、资产管理人、监管者以及塑造行业的核心加密基础设施建设者。
Speakers include SEC chair Paul Atkins, CFTC chair Michael Selig, Fed governor Stephen Moran, and Tether CEO Paolo Ardonio, alongside countless other executives, asset managers, regulators, and the core crypto infrastructure builders shaping the industry.
如果你想了解2026年数字资产的权威机构视角，数字资产峰会就是发生这一切的地方。
If you want serious institutional grade view of digital assets in 2026, digital asset summit is where it happens.
使用代码 FORWARD200 可享受200美元优惠，详情请访问 blockworks.co/events。
Use code forward 200 for 200 off and head to blockworks.co/events for more details.
关于前瞻性指引的任何发言均不构成购买或出售任何投资或产品的建议。
Nothing said on forward guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products.
本播客仅用于信息目的，节目中任何人的观点均为其个人意见，而非财务建议，也不一定代表Blockworks的观点。
This podcast is for informational purposes only, and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice, or necessarily the views of Blockworks.
我们的主持人、嘉宾以及Blockworks团队可能持有所讨论公司基金或项目的头寸。
Our hosts, guests, and the Blockworks team may hold positions in the company's funds or projects discussed.
一如既往，投资区块链技术涉及风险，条款和条件适用。
As always, investments in blockchain technology involve risk, terms, conditions apply.
自己做研究。
Do your own research.
好了，各位。
Alright, everybody.
欢迎回来，继续我们的‘Forward Macro Dirt’，我们管这个叫什么来着？
Welcome back to another, what do we wanna call this, forward macro dirt?
混搭。
Mashup.
混搭。
Mashup.
混搭版。
Mashup edition.
现场直播于纳什维尔的TG Macro会议。
Live in Nashville at the TG Macro Conference.
首次首发，老兄。
First inaugural launch, dude.
天啊，那真是非同寻常，对吧？
Man, that was something else, wasn't it?
真是太棒了。
Such a good time.
抽烟。
Smokes.
非常感谢。
Thank you very much.
我觉得吧，我跟老婆说，我平时从不为自己感到骄傲，但这次我真的非常自豪。
I feel you know, I I was telling my wife, like, I'm never proud of myself, but I'm extremely proud of this.
你懂我的意思吧？
You know what I mean?
那种情感涌上心头的感觉真的很棒，就是因为大家都纷纷说，天哪。
Like, it feels really cool to have that emotion come over you, and it's just because everybody floods you with, oh my god.
太精彩了。
That was amazing.
你明白我的意思吧？
You know what I mean?
看看我们当时的阵容，老兄，这根本不意外。
And when you look at the roster that we had, man, not shocking.
是的。
Yeah.
我们确实得到了这样的回应。
We got that response.
对。
Yeah.
我得给你送点花，表示一下敬意。
I gotta give you some flowers for that a little bit.
就像，我不知道怎么说。
Like, it's like I don't know.
现在真正出色的宏观会议其实不多，而你们的品质，嗯，只有六位演讲者，但每一个在别的地方都够当压轴的。
There's not many really good macro conferences out there, and just the the quality, like, had, what, six speakers and just, like, all would be headliners anywhere.
而且，是的，这真是太棒了。
And, yeah, it was it was awesome.
你刚才说什么，JD？
What'd you say, JD?
伙计，
Dude,
我只是很高兴你做到了。
I'm just I'm glad you pulled it off.
我为你感到非常骄傲。
I'm very proud of you.
我真的非常骄傲。
I really am.
天哪，
Oh, man.
谢谢你，你知道的？
Thank you know?
我的意思是，我已经办过六场会议了。
I I mean, I've I've done six conferences.
是的。
Yeah.
知道。
Know.
但那些会议都比这次小。
But they were they were all smaller than this.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道的？
You know?
是的。
Yeah.
而这次的后勤安排要复杂一些。
And this the the logistics around this were a little more complex.
是的。
Yeah.
而且整个过程进行得非常顺利。
And it was it just went off without a hitch.
是的。
Yeah.
这就像筹办一场婚礼。
This this was throwing a wedding.
你明白我的意思吗？
You know what I mean?
这真的特别像筹办婚礼，因为人太多了。
And it's it's so much like throwing a wedding because there's so many people.
你知道，你身边最亲近的人，家人，都来了。
You know, you have your super close to you, whole life people in your family.
比如，我表弟托尼来了，我朋友约翰·贝尔也来了，等等。
Like, my cousin Tony's here, my buddy John Bell, and all that.
然后还有，你知道的，我那些很棒的职场关系，比如你们几位。
And then there's, like, you know, my awesome professional relationships like you guys.
还有六十到七十个我从未见过、从未认识的人。
And then there's sixty, seventy people that I never saw and never met before.
嗯。
Mhmm.
而且
And
而且他们都想占你五分钟
And and they all want five minutes of
的时间。
your time.
是的。
Yeah.
他们都想见你，你也想满足他们，对吧？因为这就是你，你
They all wanna meet you, and you wanna give it to them, right, because that's why you, you
你知道，你给其中一半的人写信，
know, you write to half
而希望另一半的人订阅，并且
of them, and you want the other half to subscribe, and
你和我，我们俩经营生意的方式非常相似。
you like me You talking and I both run our businesses pretty similarly.
确实如此。
We do.
因为，我试着把我的新闻通讯当作一个家族企业来经营。
Like, because I try to treat my newsletter as this like a family business.
是的。
Yeah.
就像一个小型企业。
Like a small business.
比如，我会回复每一封邮件。
Like, I reply to every single email.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道，我努力去了解每个人。
You know, I try to get to know people personally.
我走遍全国去见人们。
I travel around the country to meet people.
你也做同样的事。
You do the same thing.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
这正是关键所在，因为这才是他们所珍视的。
That's what it's about because that's what they appreciate.
嗯嗯。
Mhmm.
你知道吗？
You know?
我觉得，如果你一方面能给他们一点关于市场的明智建议，另一方面又能把他们当人一样花时间陪伴，你就能赢得他们一生的认同。
I feel like you win them over for life if you, number one, giving them an iota of good advice in the markets, and number two, giving them time as people.
嗯嗯。
Mhmm.
不知为何，他们非常敬重你。
For whatever reason, they look up to you.
你知道，他们之所以敬重你，是因为你拥有他们没有的答案。
I you know, they they look up to you for having some answers that they don't have.
对吧？
Right?
其实并没有别的什么。
And it's it's not really anything else.
只是你的大脑会与某些能帮助他们的东西产生共鸣，而他们未必会与之产生共鸣。
It's just, like, your your brain aligns with something that helps them, and they don't align with that necessarily.
所以我想，能够帮助别人并听到他们说，‘老兄，你靠那个GDX x让我赚了很多钱’，这种成就感是很大的。
So I guess there's a lot of, gratification in being able to help people and hear them say, like, dude like, I have I've had people that tell me, dude, you made me so much money on that GDX x and
是的。
a Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道，
You know,
类似这样的事情。
stuff like that.
我们刚才在聊什么来着？
And then what were we talking about?
我和JD之前和一位在这里的大型财富管理人聊过，他是我的朋友汤米·汤姆。
JD and I were talking about it with a really big wealth manager that was here, a friend of mine, Tommy Tom.
他问我们两个，自从你们开始写东西以来，你们觉得总共帮别人赚了多少钱？
And he was like, you two guys, since you started writing, how much money collectively would you think that you could have made people?
我说，我根本想不出这个数字。
And I was like, I couldn't even come up with that number.
JD说，告诉他自己吧，赛斯，那可是数亿美元。
And JD was like, tell him, Seth, that's hundreds of millions.
这让我震惊了。
That blew me right.
是的。
Yeah.
哇。
Wow.
对。
Yeah.
我是说，那种感觉。
I mean, the look.
比如，过去几年事情一直很不错。
Like, things have been really good in the last couple years.
我曾经经历过一段艰难时期。
I had a I had a tough time.
我是说，我在市场上经历过艰难的阶段，整整好几年都没什么进展。
I mean, I've I've gone through rough, you know, tough stretches in the markets where I basically was flatlining for a couple of years.
你知道，订阅者会有些波动，但过去两年真的太棒了。
You know, you get a little churn in the subscribers, but, you know, the last two years have been fantastic.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
你觉得特别酷的一点是，我们这个反传统媒体的宏观社区的交汇点。
You feel like what's what's so cool too is just the the nexus of this, like, anti traditional media macro community that we have.
就像，来到这里，你知道，这是你的会议和观众，但有很多人来找我，说天哪。
Like, coming here and, you know, this is your conference, audience, but I had tons of people come to me and be like, oh, man.
说他们超爱你们的《Fort Guidance》节目。
Like, love your guys' Fort Guidance show.
有一群核心粉丝，他们觉得这些合作真的很酷。
Like there's this core group of people that are just like, it's, it's cool to do these collaborations.
能看到这个观众群体真的很棒。
It's cool to see that audience.
能认识这些人真的很棒。
It's cool to meet these people.
看到这一切汇聚在一起，真的太棒了。
Like, it's just, it's awesome to see it
全都聚到了一起。
all come together.
我最期待来这里的，当然是贾里德、库比和格兰特的精彩嘉宾阵容。
The thing that I was most excited about to come was obviously great guests lineup of Jared and Cuppie and Grant speaking.
而且各位，对于正在收听的你们来说，你们必须亲自到场，因为每个人都有自己的特色。
And everybody, for those listening, you you gotta be here in person because everyone has their shtick.
对吧？
Right?
布拉德有他的美元奶昔。
Brad's got the dollar milkshake.
库皮在写关于封建主义的内容。
Cuppie's writing about feudalism.
JD，是的。
JD Yeah.
你知道，你关注他的通讯，他们都有自己的观点。
You know, you follow his newsletters, and they have their views.
但这些演讲都是独一无二的。
But these were all unique presentations.
这些全是独特而持久的创意。
These were all unique ideas, lasting ideas.
而且不仅如此，你还可以通过一个人周围交往的人来判断他的品质。
And also but but even more than that, you can tell people the quality of a person by who they surround themselves with.
这就是为什么我最兴奋的原因。
And that was why I was most excited.
人们被托尼吸引，是因为他所散发出的东西，比如精明的交易洞察力，教人们如何思考。
People are gravitated towards Tony for the what he gives off, like smart trade trading insights, teaching people how to think.
四个人中有三个。
And that three out of four.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
能够做到这一点很聪明。
Smart to be able.
能够做到。
Be able.
我只是很兴奋，想看看这里会聚集什么样的人。
But it it and so I was just excited to see the the type of people that were gonna be here.
是的。
Yeah.
当你第一天坐下来时，房间里挤满了人，连站的地方都没有，是的。
And and when you sat down the first day and the room was just chock filled, standing room only Yeah.
你在和那些人交谈。
And you're talking to the guys.
其中一个人是伐木工。
He's one guy's a logger.
另一个人是矿工。
One guy's a miner.
还有一个人是木匠。
One guy's a woodworker.
所有这些人都有着相同的，比如，
And it's, all these people with the same, like,
你知道的，好奇心，想听我最疯狂的订阅者故事吗？
you know, curiosity You and wanna hear my craziest subscriber story?
我有一个来自德国的年轻人订阅了我的通讯。
I had this this young kid from Germany subscribed to my newsletter.
他叫斯特凡。
His name was Stefan.
三个月后，我在纽约的一家俱乐部办了个派对。
And like, three months later, I threw a party in New York at a club.
他从德国飞过来参加派对，玩得很开心。
And he flew from Germany to the party and had a great time.
一年后，他取消了订阅。
Well, after a year, he unsubscribed.
我当时想，天哪，真糟糕。
I was like, Oh, my God, that sucks.
然后一年后，他给我发了封邮件，告诉我他当了皮条客。
And then a year later, he emailed me, and he told me that he became a pimp.
别说了。
Stop.
他说他还给我发了
He he said and so he sent me
他改变了我的人生，兄弟。
He changed my life, dude.
是的。
Yeah.
他不是。
He's not.
他是这么说的。
That's what he said.
他说是我教会他成为企业家的。
He said I taught him to be an entrepreneur.
不管用什么方式都没关系。
And it doesn't matter how.
他给我发了那个网站。
He sent me the website.
我的意思是，大概是eurosky.com之类的网站。
I mean, it's like eurosky.com or something like that.
然后他说，你能不能在你的通讯里推广一下？
And and he's like, will you please promote it in your newsletter?
我说，不行，
I'm like, no,
就像帮我挠挠背。
Like, scratch my back.
那是我的衬衫。
That's my shirt.
这真是绝了。
That takes the cake.
就这样了。
That's it.
天哪。
Oh my god.
话说，海洛因少得可怜。
It's like, by the way, so little heroin.
是的。
Yeah.
所以你想跟你的家伙们说这个
So you wanna tell that to your guys
就让他们知道一下。
just so they know.
这太经典了，韦塞林，居然这样自我吹嘘。
That's so classic, Weaselin, into, like, this self promote your shit.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
好。
Yeah.
订阅者体验真的很酷。
Subscriber experience is really kind of cool.
你知道的。
You know?
这是一对一的情况，当你看到有人离开或类似的事情时，你会变得多疑。
It's it's this one on one thing, and, you get you get paranoid when you have people jump off or whatever.
你知道的？
You know?
然后你才会意识到，从来都不是你的问题。
And then you realize that it's always it's never you.
嗯。
Mhmm.
你知道的？
You know?
真的不是。
It really isn't.
就像，你知道的，你会担心别人离开，然后他们会填写退出调查问卷。
Like, it's like, you know, you get paranoid that people jump off, and then and they'll fill out the I have an exit survey.
你知道的？
You know?
所以当有人退订通讯时，我特别想知道原因。
So when somebody leaves the newsletter, I just love to know why.
每次人们都说：天啊，我这边简直被虐惨了。
And every time people are like, man, I am, like, getting killed over here.
这对我来说发生了变化。
This changed for me.
我不关注市场。
I don't watch the markets.
你一看，就会觉得：好吧。
And you look at it, you're like, okay.
我不希望那些不交易市场的人为这个付费。
I don't want people that are trade not trading the markets to pay for this.
这对你没有任何好处，所以没关系。
Like, this doesn't do you any good, so that's fine.
是的。
Yeah.
所以是这样。
So Yeah.
然后有些人跑去开妓院。
Then you have guys go and start brothels.
是的。
Yeah.
做你该做的事。
Do what you gotta do.
你得做你该做的事。
You do what you gotta do.
对。
Yeah.
我想聊一聊其中一些内容。
I wanna talk a little bit about some of this.
显然，你知道，你得在这里才能接触到真正精彩的部分，但我只是想简单谈谈我们听到的一些事情。
Obviously, you know, you gotta be here to get the the real good stuff, but just wanna talk a little bit about some of the stuff that we heard.
JD，你昨天率先开始了。
JD, you you kicked things off yesterday.
你搞了个图表大爆发。
You got a a chart bonanza.
你的那份拿到了。
Got yours.
图表大爆发。
Chart bonanza.
图表大爆发的警报。
The chart bonanza alarm.
砰砰砰地就来了。
Just bang bang.
我不知道。
I don't know.
我觉得那超过了100个图表，但你最喜欢的是哪一个？
I think that was like over a 100 charts, but, what was your favorite chart out of there?
那是什么？
What was it?
你最有趣的收获是什么？
Was your most interesting takeaway?
我最喜欢的图表是展示不同年龄段人群婚姻率的那个，我实际上已经在几次演讲中用过它了。
My favorite chart, and I've actually used this in a couple of presentations, is the chart that shows the rates of marriage among different age cohorts.
那个图表太棒了。
That was bomb.
你知道的，比如40年代、50年代出生的人，还有60年代、70年代出生的人。
You know, like 1940s, 1950s, people born in the 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s.
但一旦到了90年代，数据就开始急剧下降。
And once you start getting to the 90s, like it drops off.
在2000年代，人们都不结婚了。
In 2000s, like people are not getting married.
是的。
Yeah.
而且，我不知道我们该如何促进婚姻这一制度。
And, you know, I don't know what we need to do to promote marriage as an institution.
但当人们结婚时，所有的经济利益才会显现出来。
But when people get married, that's when all the economic benefits accrue.
比如，人们的收入会增加，薪水上涨，买房，生孩子，而这一切在年轻一代中正实实在在地瓦解。
Like, people make more money, their salaries go up, they buy houses, they have kids, like and it is literally falling apart, like, in the younger generations.
人人都在谈论它，只是说：‘哇，真的吗？’
Everybody talks about it, they're just like, oh, wow.
这太疯狂了。
That's crazy.
但没人会往前推二十年，想想那时将没有人口增长。
But no one just extrapolates the twenty years ahead where it's like, you have no population growth.
是的。
Yeah.
而且这是全球性的问题。
And it's a global thing.
这在欧洲也在发生。
It's happening in Europe.
日本已经老龄化了。
Japan's ancient.
大家都以为这会自己解决，确实如此。
Like and everyone just assumes it fixes itself, which Yeah.
除非正面应对，否则任何好事都不会自行改善。
It doesn't with any good thing unless you attack it head on.
是的。
Yeah.
所以，我真的不知道解决方案是什么。
So I don't I don't real I don't really know what the solution is.
我的意思是，不同国家尝试过不同的方法。
I mean, the different countries have tried different things.
我提过波兰，他们提供了终身税收减免。
I, you know, I mentioned Poland, which gave this lifetime tax amnesty.
如果你有三个孩子，那你以后就再也不用缴税了。
If you had three kids, then you'll have to pay taxes ever again.
这是一个挺有意思的概念。
It's kind of an interesting concept.
但社会科学家们发现的一个有趣现象是，这不仅仅是同居的问题，对吧？
But it's one of the interesting things that the social scientists have figured out was it's not just cohabitation, right?
比如，那些同居但不结婚的情侣，并不会获得同样的福利。
Like, couples that cohabitate but don't get married don't get the same benefits.
当人们结婚时，这种情况才会发生，你知道的。
It happens when people get married, you know?
所以，我的意思是，这其实是一张挺有意思的图表。
So, I mean, I mean, it's kind of an interesting chart.
为什么这个会在宏观经济学会议上讨论？
Why is this at a macro conference?
嗯，你知道的，它对未来二十年的收入、消费、债务以及所有这些事情，还有房地产市场都有各种影响，这就是这张图表的意义。
Well, you know, it has all kinds of implications out for the next twenty years about incomes and consumption and debt and all this stuff and the housing market, like, you know, that's that's the chart.
当我看到这个时，我简直难以置信。
When I look at it, I'm like, it just blows my mind.
你知道的。
You know?
其中一个
One of
我最喜欢你展示的图表之一是家庭部门大幅去杠杆化。
the charts I like that you showed was the the the household sector massively deleveraged.
我们在节目中讨论过这一点，以及主权层面的问题如何导致长期通胀格局，因为当你考虑到他们为解决国家债务问题必须实施的政策时，家庭部门实际上还有很大的再杠杆化空间。
We've talked about that on our show and and how the the problems at the the sovereign level and how that feeds into a secular inflation regime because there's actually a lot of ample room for releveraging in the household sector when you when you think about the policies that they're gonna have to implement to to fix the national debt problem, I.
通过名义通胀和实际资产回报低迷来实现增长。
Grow their way out of it via, you know, nominal inflation and poor real asset return.
你知道吗？
You know what's you know what?
这里有个有趣的想法。
Here's an interesting idea.
十年前有人跟我提过这个，作为解决国家债务的一种方案。
Somebody told me this, like, ten years ago as kind of a solution to the national debt.
我们以前有储蓄债券。
Like, we used to have savings bonds.
我们以前有EE储蓄债券。
We used to have the double E savings bonds.
奥巴马取消了这个项目。
Well, Obama got rid of the program.
他想裁掉匹兹堡那批负责处理这些债券的800个岗位。
He wanted to cut like 800 jobs in Pittsburgh where they process these things.
然后他推出了我的R。
And then he started the My R.
A。
A.
一个项目，让你在线投资，获得一组国债组合。
Program, which was like you invest online and you get like a portfolio of Treasury bonds.
这有点像共同基金。
It's kind of like a mutual fund.
而特朗普终止了这个项目。
And Trump killed that.
它曾拥有两千万美元的资产。
It got 20,000,000 in assets.
这完全是一个失败。
It was a complete failure.
有趣的是，如果你有一位总统说，回到四十年代，我们曾发行战争债券来资助战争。
The the interesting thing is is that if you had a president who said, you know, going back to the forties, we had war bonds to finance the war.
对吧？
Right?
如果特朗普或其他人说，购买储蓄债券是一种爱国行为，并提供不错的回报率，那会怎样？
What if what if Trump or somebody said, look, like this is a patriotic thing to buy savings bonds and they offered, like, a decent rate of return?
我的意思是，家庭净资产是多少，大约五万亿美元，甚至十万亿美元。
I mean, household net worth is what, like, you know, 50,000,000,000,000, 100,000,000,000,000.
你可以通过一场运动轻松地为债务融资。
Like, you could you could potentially finance the debt very easily with a campaign one.
关税返还债券。
Tariff refund bonds.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
有意思。
Interesting.
这太疯狂了。
It's pretty wild.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为在本次会议上，我们听到的另一件大事是，有一半的演讲者都在谈论，比如多姆伯格就来了，这太棒了。
I think another big thing that we're hearing at this conference is half the camp of of the speakers that had come here were talking about, you know, we had you had Doomberg here, which was awesome.
而且，看到他穿着那身巨大的绿色鸟形服装走进来，真的非常精彩。
And, you know, it was was really great to see him walking in his big green bird costume.
他全副武装，光彩照人。
All his glory.
他就像，他就像
He was like, he was like
我能想象到。
I can see that.
是的。
Yeah.
那一定会很酷。
That that would be sweet.
他度过了一个周末。
He's had the weekend.
我见过他演讲至少八到十次了，我很高兴我请他稍微侧重一下交易和风险管理，结果他直接发挥得淋漓尽致。
He was too I've seen him present, like, probably eight or 10 times now, and I've I I'm so glad that I asked him to gear it a little bit towards trading and risk management, and then he just took it and knocked it out of point.
是的。
Yeah.
你的意思是？
You know I mean?
就像那样。
Like that.
从他的Yolo故事，到利用优势，再到给人们信心去做空石油牛市。
Everything from his YOLO story to, you know, exploiting an edge and and, you know, giving people confidence to sell an oil rally.
那真的很酷。
Like, that was cool.
听了他的话，我确实有信心去做空石油牛市。
Like, I have confidence to sell an oil rally after what he said.
你知道的？
You know?
我会深入细节，等着看这一幕。
I will be in the weeds waiting for that.
好吧，我会
Well, I'll
我跟你说。
tell you what.
今天是星期五。
Today's Friday.
今天就是卖原油的好时机。
Today's the date to sell oil.
是的。
Yeah.
你明白吗？
You know?
因为我们不会在周末对伊朗采取行动。
Because we're not gonna attack Iran over the weekend.
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下周一开盘会低四美元。
It's gonna open up $4 lower on Monday.
是的。
Yeah.
可能已经根据这个情况调整了，你知道的，就在我们说话的时候。
Mean, might have already adjusted to that, you know, as we speak.
谁知道呢？
Who knows?
但那真的很好。
But that was really great.
对。
Yeah.
我的意思是，这就像，有个有趣的观点，我不确定是谁说的，但他把它比作，你知道的，当你试图做多波动率指数的时候。
I mean, that's what, like, there's an interesting I don't know if he he was who said it, but he's comparing it to, you know, when you're trying to long the VIX.
就像，这是一个会衰减的资产。
Like, it's a decaying asset.
而且，是的，你可以短期做多，以捕捉这些回调。
And yeah, you can go long for a little bit to to catch those those reversions.
但他认为，从长期来看，如果你做多大宗商品，就是在否定人类的创造力。
But his perspective was that, you know, secularly, you're you're fading human ingenuity if you're long commodities.
而且，这个会议上有许多非常看多大宗商品的人。
And, you know, this conference, like it had a lot of pretty bullish commodity guys in the space.
如果他站出来直接说，在长期视角下，除非你讨厌人类的创造力，否则不该持有大宗商品。
If he came out here and just said, on a long term horizon, like, can't own commodities unless you're just hating on human ingenuity.
我想知道你们怎么看。
I'm curious how you guys
我完全同意这一点，我确实讨厌人类的创造力。
I I 100100% agree with that, and I am hating on human ingenuity.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道，人类的进步总是前三步、后退两步。
You know, because all of human progress is three steps forward and two steps back.
对吧？
Right?
你前进三步，然后后退两步。
You have three steps forward and then two steps back.
我不是托尼，但我是一个在后退两步时赚钱的投资者。
And I am an Tony is not, but I am an investor who makes money on the two steps back.
对吧？
Right?
这种环境让我交易起来很自在。
Like, that an environment that I am comfortable trading.
我喜欢做空。
I like to short things.
我挺擅长这个的。
Pretty good at it.
你知道的？
You know?
如果我理解错了，请纠正我，但你在那种环境下可能会更难应对。
Correct me if I'm wrong, but you'd probably have a tougher time in that environment.
我在那种环境下表现得很差。
I'm horrible in that environment.
是的。
Yeah.
我不喜欢那样做。
I don't like to do that.
我不习惯做空。
I'm not comfortable short.
说实话，我觉得在牛市里做空股票，难度系数高了十倍。
I don't literally I it's it's a 10 x degree of difficulty, if you ask me, shorting stocks, in a bull market anyway.
你明白我的意思吗？
You know what I mean?
你有没有发现，当你对某个仓位感觉良好时，通常就意味着你应该考虑平仓了。
You get literally it's one of the things where as soon as you feel good about the position, that means you should probably be covering some.
你看着图表，发现你的空头仓位急剧下跌，心想：哦，这东西要崩盘了。
You watch charts that your shorts spike lower, and you're like, oh, this thing is about to collapse.
结果它又V型反弹回原来的位置，我实在没法应对这种情况。
And it v's back up to where it was, and I just can't manage that.
这种交易方式并不适合我。
That's not the way my trading goes well.
比如，我从……更有信心。
Like, I I have more confidence from
但做宏观分析确实很好。
one But it's good that we do the macro dirt.
人们能从两个角度去理解。
People get both sides of it.
是的。
Yeah.
完全正确。
So Totally.
我们给人们提供了两个方向。
We give people both up.
两边都可以靠，是的。
Both edges to lean Yeah.
这才是最好的。
That's the best.
我的意思是，现在我们正处在大宗商品的退两步局面，因为突然间我们意识到，过去十年我们对大宗商品的投资严重不足。
I mean, it feels like right now as we're in sort of that two steps back situation for commodities because suddenly we're like, oh crap, we've under invested in commodities for the past decade.
而现在，我们面临着AI建设等带来的各种稀缺状况。
And now we have all these scarcity situations of AI build outs or what have you.
这感觉像是那种可以顺势而为的退两步时刻，但同时也要记住长期视角，最终总会迎来三步向前的时刻。
And it feels like it's one of those times where there is that that two step back that you can ride on, but it's also good to keep in mind the long term horizon that eventually there will be those three steps forward eventually.
抱歉，如果我——
Well, sorry if I
我本来想打断你。
was gonna interrupt you.
哦，完全不会。
Oh, not at all.
所以，
So,
无论如何，投资大宗商品对投资组合来说都是很好的，作为一种多元化的手段，对吧？
it's good to have commodities in your portfolio all the time anyway, as a diverse means of diversification, right?
因为大宗商品与股票或债券的相关性较低，甚至是负相关。
Because commodities are low correlated or negatively correlated to stocks or bonds.
你需要在金融资产之外，持有一些实物资产。
You need to have some real assets with your financial assets.
这就是整个出色的投资组合的由来。
That's where the whole awesome portfolio comes in.
是的。
Yeah.
它还能提供一种你无法通过
And it provides a level of diversification that you can't get with
一个六四投资组合。
a sixty forty portfolio.
你知道的。
You know?
我完全同意。
I agree completely.
新的长期趋势。
New secular.
为了多方印证，每位发言者都有自己的观点。
To triangulate, you know, each speaker had their own views.
我认为，每个人身上都存在大量看涨黄金的暗流，尤其是Doomberg，他将黄金识别为一种货币性商品，而不是
There's a lot of bullish gold undercurrents through everybody, I would say, particularly as well Doomberg, who's who identified gold as a monetary commodity versus
是的。
Yeah.
一个货币篮子，但是
A monetary basket, But
我一直在寻找的是人们观点中的共同主题，这些主题让我看清了在哪个资产类别上能找到共识，因为每个人都支持这一点。
one of the things I was looking for was commonality themes throughout people that sort of zeroed in on where I could find confluence in an asset class to behind everybody use.
其中一个主题是Doomberg谈到黄金的不同之处。
And one of them was you have Doomberg talking about, you know, gold's different.
它是一种对当前持续混乱局面的货币对冲工具。
It's a monetary hedge against, you know, all the the craziness ongoing.
此外，石油价格长期呈下行压力，而石油是矿商的重要投入成本之一。
And there's this downward overtime pressure on oil, which is a large input cost to miners, for example.
所以，当你考虑这个背景时，再看看JJ，这位绝对的商品大师，几十年来一直在交易大厅打拼，他的故事简直太精彩了，我知道我们想聊这些。
So you think of that backdrop, and then you have JJ, who's, you know, absolute commodity guru spent decades in trading the pits and his stories were just I know we want to talk about those.
我们会谈到的，而且你能发现这些线索——对我来说，就是围绕黄金矿企，因为你可能会因地缘政治等原因看到石油价格短期飙升，但我们都知道，核心议程之一是维持石油和天然气价格低位。
We'll get to and and and you can find these threads, which is for me around gold miners because you do you might get these spikes in oil on geopolitical, whatever, but we know a key agenda item is to keep, you know, oil and gas prices lower.
与此同时，黄金投资逻辑背后的本质没有任何改变，除了短期超买带来的疯狂波动。
Meanwhile, nothing behind the gold thesis is changing outside, you know, short term overbought, you know, craziness.
因此，你完全可以将这种长期顺风因素结合起来。
And and so you combine the secular tailwind For sure.
矿企的收入受到压低油价这一长期有利因素的推动。
The miners revenue and a secular headwind for, you know, getting oil prices down.
这非常强大。
That is powerful.
对吧？
Right?
这非常强大。
That is powerful.
这就是为什么我认为它们在一年内可能上涨200%，因为它们在金属价格上涨的背景下表现极佳。
That's why I think that they could be up 200% in a year because they're crushing it on the higher metal prices.
它们还没公布那些表现优异的季度财报呢。
They haven't even reported those quarters yet that they're crushing.
你明白我的意思吗？
You know what I mean?
它们可能还留了一部分利润没释放出来，是的。
They probably leave some in the tank yeah, of earnings.
你知道吗
You know what
我的意思是？
I mean?
这周，他们将公布大量数据。
This week, they report a lot.
他们正在以前所未有的速度降低杠杆。
Like, they're delevering like never before.
他们手头有太多现金了。
They don't they have so much cash.
他们都不知道该怎么花这笔钱。
They don't know what to do with it.
是的。
Yeah.
如果黄金价格在未来十年保持在5000美元，黄金矿企股价仍能从当前水平翻三倍。
The the the gold miners if gold stayed at 5,000 for the next ten years, the gold miners are still a triple from here.
是的。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
即使黄金价格不上涨。
Even if gold doesn't go up.
是的。
Yeah.
人们仍然对他们心有余悸。
Everyone's so scarred for them still.
那家公司他的演示，你知道，是的。
That company his company's presentation, you know Yeah.
这正是市场有趣且具有周期性的原因，因为你试图长期持有金矿股时可能会被套牢。
It's it's that's what makes markets interesting and cyclical, though, because it's like you get burned trying to touch the gold mine along for ten years.
是的。
Yeah.
每个人都在这么做。
Everyone's doing it.
是的。
Yeah.
这就是为什么我们看到GDX价格垂直上涨，但GDX股票数量却在减少，因为你还没有看到那种爆发式增长。
And that's why we're seeing GDX price vertical, but actually GDX shares decreasing because you still not having that blow off.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得GDX的流通股数量——我的意思是，ETF里面有很多奇怪的现象。
I think I think the GEX shares outstanding I mean, there's a lot of funny stuff with ETFs.
它们上面还有结构性产品之类的东西。
There's structured products on them and stuff like that.
我觉得不能把它当作衡量情绪的指标。
Like, don't I don't think it's don't think a it's measure of sentiment in Myers.
但话说回来，多年来我一直卖GDX的看跌期权。
But having said that, like for years, I just sold puts on GDX.
我会卖出略微虚值的看跌期权。
I would sell slightly out of the money puts.
它们会下跌。
They would go down.
我会收到权利金。
I I would get signed.
我会买入股票。
I would buy the stock.
我多年来一直卖出它的看跌期权，然后买入了一大堆GDX，最终奏效了，你知道吗？
I just sold puts on it for years, and then I bought a bunch of GDX and finally worked, You know?
关于油价下跌的确定性，我想提醒一点注意事项：如果真金白银的资金进场了。
So There's one there's one word of caution that I think I would have about the certainty of oil prices going down, and that's if if real money comes after it.
你知道，大家都说，港口里有这么多精炼产品，还有大量的石油等等。
You know, it's like everybody's like, well, there's so much there's so much refined product that's floating around the harbor, and there's plenty of oil and this and that.
所以，直到一两个或三个大型基金接连决定投入数亿美元进行这笔交易之前，情况都会这样持续。
And so it's like like that until one or two or three large funds right after the other decide to commit a couple $100,000,000 to that proper to that trade.
然后你一眨眼，那些堆在那里的库存就被消化了。
And then next thing you know, that covers that inventory that was sitting over there.
这些库存实际上可以退出市场，因为这个人把资金投入进去，把仓位从市场上撤走了。
That can essentially be off the market because this guy is putting that money in and taking the position off the market.
所以这种事情发生得很快。
So that stuff happens fast.
如果你有一整群学生都这么想，那我们无论如何都得持有石油。
And if you get a whole student body right, we gotta own oil for whatever reason.
当油价因俄乌战争飙升至130美元时，石油的基本面有什么不同吗？
Like, were the oil dynamics any different when it spiked to $1.30 on the Russia Ukraine invasion?
我觉得那时候的情况可能真的不一样。
I thought that that that they're maybe out there were very different.
是的。
Yeah.
你明白我的意思吗？
You know what I mean?
但那明显是一个针对生产区域的公然攻击，可能对原油供应造成潜在威胁。
But it was a a blatant epicenter, you know, attack on production areas and potential danger to the straight or whatever.
但我感觉投资资金完全可以涌入并把原油从市场上撤走。
But I feel like investment money, investment capital can come and take that oil off the market for sure.
所以我尽量不去过分担心，而且我喜欢石油股。
So I I I try not to get too worried about it, and I I like oil stocks.
你知道的。
You know?
它们在跟我对话。
They're they're speaking to me.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
我本来想说说生产者的情况。
I was gonna say the producer situation.
我的意思是，这事儿你真的讨论过吗？
Like, that is just I mean, this is also do ever talk about it?
就是说，投资那些生产商，那些卖铲子和镐头的公司。
It's just like, yeah, own own the producers, the picks and shovels.
是的。
Yeah.
那些公司能产生稳定的自由现金流，不管未来几年大宗商品价格如何波动。
The ones where yeah, you can actually get those consistent free cash flows happening regardless of where where the actual commodity goes over the next few years.
所以你只需保持平稳。
So you just stay flat.
它们会表现得很好。
They're going to be great.
而且你还能享受到顺风优势。
And then you have those tailwinds.
我的意思是，我们四个人都认同这一点：正在发生一场从科技股、七巨头中大规模轮动，转向这些其他板块，而这些板块的规模简直小得惊人。
I mean, I think all four of us are in the camp here of this big rotation coming out of the tech trade out of the mag sevens into those other sectors and just how freaking small those sectors are.
是的。
Yeah.
就像一个巨无霸。
Like, as a behemoth.
看看史泰博。
Look at Staples.
是的。
Yeah.
上个月。
The last month.
它已经横跨多个垂直领域，而且疯狂地垂直化了。
It's just gone through verticals and just gone vertical insane.
为什么会这样？
Why is that?
为什么？
Why?
基本上，所有资金都从科技板块流出，转向了基础能源、必需消费品和公用事业。
Basically, everything came out of tech, and it went into basics energy, staples, and utilities.
这很有趣，因为涉及到周期性板块和防御性板块，
Which is funny because there's cyclicals and defensive, which,
你知道，你会怎么操作？
you know, do you route?
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
是的。
Yeah.
事实上，Staples 提前应对了关税，因为它们刚刚被取消了。
Which the the fact that Staples is a little front running the tariffs because they just got dropped.
所以那可能就是那个原因。
So that was that was probably that.
关于这个XLE，有趣的是，能源生产商都已经实现了垂直整合。
The funny thing about this XLE, you know, the producers for energy is they've all gone vertical.
油价一直这样波动，而空头们说，哦，这只是伊朗的地缘政治溢价。
And oil's kinda done this, and, you know, the bears are saying, oh, that's just the geopolitical premium for Iran.
与此同时，生产商们每天都在经历这种疯狂的行情。
Meanwhile, the producers, every single day, these is insane.
XLE、OYH、海上、陆上、小盘股，不管什么。
XLE, OYH, offshore, onshore, small cap, whatever.
这让我想起了黄金矿业股，因为去年也发生过类似的情况吗？
And it reminds me of the gold miners because this happened back was it last year?
我觉得你可能在Navigator里提到过，当时的情况是，好吧。
I think you were might might have been talking about in the navigator where it's like, okay.
金价仍在盘整，但矿业股却一路飙升。
Gold's still chopping in this consolidation, but miners are going vertical.
有人知道一些事情。
Something someone knows something.
是的。
Yeah.
然后黄金也大幅跟涨。
Some and then gold followed it in a big way.
没错。
Yep.
我手上有货。
And and I I have shit.
我确实有。
I yeah.
你必须记住这一点。
You have to you have to, you know, keep that in your back of your mind.
而且是的。
And Yeah.
与其在这里卖出石油的飙升，我更倾向于突破买入，或者买入那种‘伊朗战争不会发生’的预期，然后价格回落到510美元。
I would I instead of me selling the oil spike here, I'm more of a buy the breakout buy the breakout or buy the, you know, old Iran War is not happening, you know, comes off to $510.
是的。
Yeah.
就在那里。
That's there.
是的。
Yeah.
我们又回到了价值投资。
It's we're right back into value.
好的。
Okay.
我觉得我们应该聊聊库皮的关于新闻业的演讲，因为我觉得这和我们刚才讨论的几件事有点矛盾。
I I think we should talk a little bit about Cuppie's presentation around journalism because I think it goes it's kind of contrary to a few of the things we've just been talking about.
比如，你知道，如果你对金属或周期性工业股非常看涨，他提出了一个观点：如果我们，你知道，他当时在想，为什么大家对消费者情绪这么悲观？
Like, you know, if you're super bullish on metals or cyclical industrials and that sort of thing, like he brought this thesis of what if we're, you know, he was looking like, why is why is everybody so bummed down consumer sentiment?
为什么大家都这么难过？
Why is everybody sad?
为什么大家都这么沮丧？
Why is everybody frustrated?
为什么现在一切都感觉这么糟糕？
Why is everything feel so kind of shitty right now?
他说，也许我们正处于衰退中，只是因为像AI资本支出这样的因素，使得情况没那么明显。
And he's like, maybe we're in a recession, and it's just not as obvious because of things like AI CapEx.
我想知道你们对这个观点有什么看法。
And just curious how you guys took away from from that perspective.
你想先说吗，JD？
You want go, JD?
好的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，情绪数据反映的不仅仅是劳动力市场或经济的状况。
I mean, the sentiment numbers, I think, reflect a lot of things other like, other than the labor market, other than the economy.
我认为，老实说，这反映的是政治因素。
I think it I mean, honestly, I think it reflects politics.
我觉得人们现在对政治极度失望，你看，现在的政治简直疯了。
I think people are so disillusioned with I mean, look, politics are nuts right now.
两极分化只会越来越严重。
Polarization, just keeps getting worse and worse and worse.
我真的觉得这和政治有关，除了经济因素之外，你知道的，但我也不太确定。
And I really I really think it has something to do with that, like apart from the economy, you know, but I'm just I'm not really sure.
现在，这
Now, it's
是个难题。
a tough one.
我很欣赏他做的标普与黄金的对比图表。
I appreciated his S and P versus gold chart.
对吧？
Right?
他就是说，你知道的，为什么是啊。
He's like, you know, why yeah.
大家都在说股票表现太棒了。
Everybody's saying the stocks are so great.
他说，连宠物石都赶不上。
He's like, they can't even keep up with the pet rock.
你知道吧？
You know?
这也没错。
And that's fair.
你知道吧？
You know?
尽管黄金出现了世代性的突破，但你还是会想，这或许还不足以算是一次明显的风险偏好转向，毕竟黄金的上涨并不是因为战争之类的避险需求。
Even though we have a generational breakout in gold, it's still like you would you would think that that's maybe enough of a risk on move because it's gold's not like a flight to safety because of war or anything like that.
所以，因为人们正在买入黄金和大宗商品。
So because, like, people are buying gold, buying commodities.
这是一种风险偏好型交易的心态氛围。
That's like a risk on trade mentality atmosphere.
他说得对。
And he's right.
你看，标普指数的股票现在本可以达到八千点。
It's like, watch I mean, stocks could be eight k at on the S and P right now.
而它们并没有达到这一点，这让我有点失望，我想这也说明了股市跟不上黄金的表现并不是好事。
And the fact that they're not is kinda disappointing to me, and I guess it makes sense that it's and not keeping up with gold is not a good thing.
所以是的。
So yeah.
我的意思是
I mean
对。
Yeah.
你继续说。
Go ahead.
过去两次黄金大幅飙升时的波动性，仅在历史上另两次出现过，那就是新冠疫情三月危机和全球金融危机，哇哦。
Well, the last two gold's volatility, when it peaked out on that big rip higher, was only higher two other times in history, which was COVID March crisis, and GFC Oh, wow.
所以这表明了一个罕见的信号，意味着这里有些不对劲，有些地方不对劲。
And so that's, that's a, you know, rarity of a signal that's like, okay, something's weird here, something's weird.
但在那些时候，股市都出现了30%的跌幅。
And, but accompanying those, you had 30% equity drawdowns.
而这一次，却没有。
And here, you don't.
我认为‘热运行’这个说法将受到考验，因为美联储目前按兵不动，直到新一任领导人上任，经济是否能真正重启并持续，仍需观察是否还需要流动性支持。
And I think it's I the run it hot narrative, I think it will be tested because the Fed's on hold until, you know, new blood, you know, TBD if if the economic reacceleration still needs some liquidity help to really stick here.
但对我来说，这一点非常有力。
But that that to me is is powerful.
我认为，政府干预很多，只是在掩盖裂缝，因为这不只是美国的问题。
I think there is, you know, a lot of government intervention, papering over the cracks because it's not a US thing.
这是日本式的问题。
It's it's a Japan thing.
这是欧洲的问题。
It's a Europe thing.
所以
So
是的
Yeah.
顺便说一下，你提到过2008年左右黄金的波动性。
By the way, you mentioned, you mentioned gold volatility around 2008.
我不知道你是否记得，但黄金在贝尔斯登倒闭时曾涨至1000美元的高点。
I don't know if you remember this, but gold peaked in 2008 at a thousand when Bear Stearns blew up.
然后它一路下跌，直到雷曼破产时才在700美元处企稳。
And then it traded off until the Lehman blow up when it bought on at 700.
是的
Yeah.
再也没见过
And never saw
一个价格。
a price.
再也没有见过那个价格。
And never saw that price again.
好吧，这也引出了另一个观点：我们经历了这种垂直飙升，对黄金投资者来说就像乘坐魔毯直飞瓦尔哈拉，以为金价会一路直线上涨，毫无波动。
Well, that that that's to go to the points too about, like, we've kinda had this vertical ascent where it's been the magic carpet ride to, like, Valhalla for for gold investors thinking, it just goes straight up with no vol.
当金价从15涨到40时，没有糟糕的波动，就不会有好的上涨。
And you don't get good vault without bad vault when when it goes from 15 to 40.
所以，你知道，这些现象只是这种重新货币化、资产资本化新市场结构的一部分。
And so, you know, these things are just part of a new market structure for for this re monetizing remark, you know, capitalizing asset.
在波动率为40的资产中，你肯定会遇到20%的回调。
And you're gonna have that, like, 20% dips in a 40 vol asset.
不会。
No.
是的。
Yeah.
是的
Yeah.
我认为也值得说的是，你今天上午的演讲中提到，你把债券当作你仓位配置的加速计。
I think there's something to be said too for just I mean, you're talking about this in your presentation this morning about how you look at bonds as an accelerometer for your for your positioning.
当你看看几周前的就业报告以及此后债券的反应时，它们一直在疯狂上涨。
And, you know, when you look at the jobs report that we had a couple of weeks ago and the reaction of bonds since then, they've been rallying like crazy.
是的
Yeah.
尽管就业数据对他来说非常强劲。
Even though it was a gangbusters jobs for him.
这就像是，
It's like,
你认为这意味着什么
what do you what do you
你从中得出什么结论？
take from that?
显然，我们当前所处的环境——也就是那种热钱涌向底层资产的情况——并不那么明显。
It's obviously it's not quite as obvious that the environment that we're in of just, you know, the run at hot basement stuff.
如果债券在强劲的就业数据后反而走强，这说明了什么？
If bonds are rallying off a hot job sprint?
它们确实在上涨，但并没有形成趋势。
They're they're rallying, but they're not trending.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我不
So I'm not
太关注这个。
paying attention to it.
对吧？
Right?
如果它们涨到一个足够吸引人的水平，或者价格行为开始显示出它们能够突破当前这个非常狭窄的区间，那才值得关注。
And if they get to a level that's interesting enough to show or they start price action starts showing that they can actually trend out of the range that they're in, which is a pretty tight one.
你知道，目前的内部区间是多少？
Know, You what's been the what's the inside range?
你可以说，十位数的内部区间大约有20个基点宽。
You could argue that the inside range in tens is, like, 20 basis points wide.
对吧？
Right?
比如四点零和四点二零，或者我也说不准。
Like, four bit and four twenty or maybe I don't know.
我甚至不知道确切的数字，但如果你相信，只要从债券会均值回归这个前提出发，那就对了。
I don't even know what the exact number is, but you if you can have faith, if you operate from a position of bonds are mean reverting, that's it.
对吧？
Right?
有推有拉。
There's push and pull.
我明白。
I get it.
但他们不会让我退出我的股票交易。
But they're not gonna take me out of my equity trade.
这对我来说是最重要的事。
That's the most important thing for me.
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是的。
Yeah.
我觉得债券也是，你知道，在沃什被提名之后，嗯。
I think bonds are also I think, you know, after Worsch was nominated Mhmm.
我觉得债券，我觉得债券在某种程度上提前反应了沃什的提名。
I think bonds I think bonds are front running Worsch a little bit.
这场风波的。
Of the jam.
一旦市场弄清楚了，你知道，市场对沃什的最初反应是，天啊。
Once once the market figured out, like, know, the initial reaction to Warsh was like, my god.
他是个鹰派。
He's a hawk.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
天哪。
Oh my god.
特朗普怎么没注意到？
How did Trump not notice?
是的。
Yeah.
这是个鹰派。
It's a hawk.
天哪。
Oh my god.
就好像特朗普面试了十八个月，就是为了找一个现在立刻加息的人。
As if Trump interviewed for eighteen months to put a guy in there who's gonna hike right now.
真的吗？
Really?
我只是想说
I just wanna tell
告诉他，那就是TDSF的民俗生活。
him, like, that's the that's the that's the TDSF folklife.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
他们就是觉得，你知道的，他根本不知道自己在做什么。
They're just like, you know, he doesn't know what he's doing.
就是说，老兄，那些嘉宾。
It's like, dude, the the guests.
每一天。
Every day.
所以，马什对人工智能和其他通缩力量如何让你降低利率发表了很多看法。
So, Marsh just made a lot of comments about how, you know, AI and these other deflationary forces allow you to lower rates.
你知道，债券本质上其实就是联邦基金利率的未来路径，对吧？
And, you know, a bond is really, at its core, just the future path of Fed funds, right?
所以两年期国债反映的是联邦基金利率的未来路径，十年期国债也是如此，只不过时间跨度更长。我认为，在沃什的环境下，收益率曲线会是两年期在2%到2.5%之间，十年期在3.5%，曲线陡峭100个基点。
So two year notes are really the future path of Fed funds, but ten year notes are too, just over a long, long So time I think what the yield curve looks like under Warsh is you have twos at two to two and a half and you have tens at three and a half and the curve is 100 basis points steep.
但十年期利率升至3.5%已经是相当大的变动了。
But, you know, a move to three and a half on tens is pretty big.
是的。
Yeah.
这会把抵押贷款利率降至大约5.5%，从而引发各种有趣的影响。
And that's gonna get mortgage rates down to about five and a half, which does all kinds of interesting things.
所以，这就是我认为在沃什的环境下收益率曲线会呈现的样子。
So that's that's kind of what I think the yield curve looks like under wharsh.
我同意，曲线更陡峭。
I agree steeper.
我不认同利率低的观点，但我同意收益率曲线会变陡。
I I don't agree that low, but I agree steeper.
有一件事我同意你的看法，J。
One thing I do agree with you, J.
D。
D.
你和你对美元长期看跌的观点，正是我理解为什么即使有些人，比如在FinTwit社区里，因为AI的通缩潜力而对债券非常看多的原因。
And you and your secular bearish dollar view is and how I like to think about why, you know, even if you might be sort of some people are very bullish I'm seeing on on the FinTwit community on bonds here because of the AI deflation pass potential.
但债券本质上就是未来的美元。
But a bond is just dollars in the future.
所以，我就是无法说服自己去买入这些债券，即使是为了这种交易，因为我根本不想持有任何未来的美元。
And so, you know, I I just can't get myself to buy them even for that type of trade because I don't want to do anything with dollars in the future.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为应该关注第二层影响。
I think it's new to look at the the second order of fact.
我同意。
So I agree.
我认为收益率曲线大幅变陡的可能性很大。
I think the major or significantly steeper curve is likely.
有趣的是，看看你提到的DrunkenMiller上周刚发布的报告，他买入了XLF金融股。
And it's interesting to look at what your drunkenmiller's 13 s just came out last week, and he went long XLF financials.
你知道，他是那个对战争局势了如指掌的人。
And, you know, he's he's the guy that is tapped into war.
她对Besson的情况了如指掌。
She's tapped into Besson.
他本身就是这个复杂体系的一部分，而且他正在买入金融股。
Like, he is part of that complex and he's going to buy financials.
这相当有意思。
That's pretty interesting.
如果你将这一点与更陡峭的收益率曲线对比，这对银行来说是好事。
If you contrast that with a steeper yield curve, which is great for banks.
是的。
Yeah.
他还买了巴西。
He also bought Brazil.
他买了，是的。
He bought Yeah.
这是我的最爱之一。
The Which is one of my favorites.
我的意思是，你看，巴西的政治比美国政治还要疯狂。
Regard I mean, look, like, Brazil is look, Brazilian politics are even more nuts than US politics.
你知道，卢拉似乎在下一次选举中稳操胜券，但任何事情都有可能发生。
You know, Lulu seems like a done deal for the next election, but anything anything can happen.
嗯。
Mhmm.
而且，巴西的股价大约在六到七倍市盈率，股息收益率非常高。
And, you know, Brazil is trading at, like, six times, seven times, you know, with massive dividend yields.
你知道吗，每当看到一个国家的市盈率为6倍、股息收益率为6%时，这基本上就是1982年美国的情况。
You know, it's like any time you see a country that's trading at a six PE with a 6% dividend yield, that's basically where The US was in 1982.
对。
Right.
那可是历史上买股票的最佳时机，你知道吗？
Which was the best time to buy stocks in history, you know?
所以，我对巴西谁会当选总统并不太在意。
So I'm I'm not too wound up about who's going to be president of Brazil.
当东西变得这么便宜时，你就得买进。
Like, when stuff gets that cheap, you just have to buy it.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，当价格跌到这种地步，而美元又处于当前水平时，简直就像从悬崖上掉下去一样。
I mean, it gets that cheap and the dollar is where it's at right now, so it's like sort of fall off a cliff place.
但现实却一直在反弹。
And and and the reality keeps rallying.
你知道，现实就是如此不容置疑。
You know, the reality just it's relentless.
它一直在持续反弹。
It just keeps rallying.
一个多月前有个小插曲，博索纳罗的儿子要竞选总统，把一切都搞乱了。
There was that there was that blip, a month or two ago when, Bolsonaro's son was gonna run for president, which screwed everything up.
但后来它又恢复了，而且
But, like, it it it recovered, and
它仍在继续反弹。
it just continues to rally.
所以，Drop在MacroDirt LLC私募股权的底部也打过一些电话。
So Drop also had some calls at the bottom there on MacroDirt LLC private equity.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得你们对美国股市和国际股市的看法完全相反。
I think you guys are on opposite ends on The US equities versus international.
你是不是
Are you are
还在做这个？
you still doing that?
不做了。
No.
你看啊。
Like, look.
我我我够不聪明，没法懂吗？
I I I'm not I'm not smart enough to be know?
我真的没有足够的智力去尝试做全球性的投资，那是给高手准备的。
I really don't have the elect intellectual capacity to try to be a global That's for hooroo.
你懂我的意思吗？
You know what I mean?
如果那些股票表现更好，我也无所谓，但问题是，如果欧洲上涨了，我前几天就跟人说过这个。
It's like if if the I'm fine if those stocks outperform, but it's like if if Europe is up I was saying this to somebody the other night.
如果欧洲一年上涨了23%，而标普指数只上涨了16%，那是不是意味着我仍然没法通过交易这些东西赚到35%、40%的收益？
If Europe is up twenty three percent one year and the S and P is only up 16%, like, does that mean that I still can't print 35, 40% trading around this stuff?
所以，我只是专注于美国市场，因为我是个交易员。
So, like, I just stayed US centric because I'm a trader.
你明白我的意思吗？
You know what I mean?
呃，是的，先生。
Like, I don't Yes, sir.
我知道长期投资有它的价值，但只要我们处于牛市，我有板块、有突破点，可以交易，而且当我更有信心时还能加仓，我就没必要去做别的。
I I understand that there's value and things like that to invest in on the long term, but I don't feel like as long as we're in a bull market and I have sectors and breakouts and things that I can trade and things that I can upsize when I get confident about it.
我真的没必要离开这个大陆。
I don't really need to leave the continent.
我就保持简单。
I just keep it simple.
你明白我的意思吗？
You know what I mean?
不管好坏，但对我而言一直有效。
For better or for worse, but it's been working for me.
有一个问题，这个主题很常见。
That there's one question that, like, this theme, it's it's common.
我认为这与低消费者情绪有关，你知道，财富管理者们——这并不是批评，但你经常听到这种说法：股市创历史新高，政治局势混乱，这种低迷、沮丧的情绪，到底该投资什么？
I think it goes to, like, the low consumer sentiment where it's like, you know, the wealth managers, and this isn't a a diss, but you just hear this sentiment a lot where it's, oh, you know, with equities at all time highs and this going on and the craziness of politics, this sort of, like, mopey, depressed, like, what do you invest in?
但其实市场上有上百个牛市。
And it's, like, there's a 100 bull markets out there.
是的。
Yeah.
总有一个市场存在。
There's there's a market somewhere.
是的。
Yeah.
牛市是存在的。
There's bull markets.
如果你知道，这里有一个有趣的现象。
If you know, here's here's the interesting one.
如果你看一下2025年表现最好的资产列表，黄金矿业公司位居榜首，还有其他一些资产。
If you look at a list of the top performing assets in 2025, gold miners were at the top and a bunch of other stuff.
在列表接近顶端的是国际小型股价值股，2025年上涨了46%。
And pretty close to the top of the list was international small cap value, which was up 46% in 2025.
哇。
Wow.
你知道，我的意思是，每个拉美市场都是如此，这就是我为什么...
You know, I mean, every LatAm market that's why I'm
看涨迈阿密房地产，因为纽约人和加州人正在搬下来，而每个拉美股市都实现了同比100%的增长。
bullish Miami real estate because you got this New Yorkers in California is coming down, and then every LatAm stock market up a 100% year over year.
有道理。
Makes sense.
是的。
Yeah.
没说‘有道理’。
Doesn't say makes sense.
你让格兰特·威廉姆斯来收尾。
You had Grant Williams to close things
结束。
out.
天啊。
Man.
传奇人物。
Legend.
是的。
Yeah.
传奇人物。
Legend.
你知道，他的演讲简洁明了、深思熟虑，让人内心平静。
You know, his presentation is just crisp and well thought out and just like a very peaceful thing for your mind to go through.
你明白我的意思吗？
You know what I mean?
是的。
Yeah.
我不知道能不能从中得出交易思路，这正是我喜欢它的原因。
I don't know if can come out of it with trade ideas, which is why I liked it.
你懂我的意思吗？
You know I mean?
我特别喜欢的是，他提到了托尼·戴顿，而且是作为一个真正的议题。
And what I loved about it was that he brought up Tony Dayton as, like, an actual topic.
对。
Yeah.
你知道吧？
You know?
因为这正是我明显一直在说的，我的意思是，我都提过十次了。
Because that's something that I've clearly been I mean, I mentioned it, like, 10 times.
我一直对那次采访着迷，因为从那个人嘴里说出来的智慧太多了，你真的不能错过。
I've been obsessed with that interview just because there's so much wisdom coming out of that guy's mouth that you really don't wanna miss it.
所以我很高兴他提到了耐心、稀缺性，以及那些持久的东西都是需要等待的这些理念。
And, so I'm glad that he brought that up and the ideas of, you know, patience and, scarcity and, you know, things that last are things that wait.
你就应该这样思考。
That that's how you wanna think.
你明白吗？
You know?
而且这恰恰符合交易员的思维模式，会让你更有耐心。
And it's kinda it kinda just fits into the idea of you know, for a trader, it's, like, just kinda causes you to just exercise more patience
是的。
Yeah.
试着行动得更慢一点，弄清楚哪些东西你可以介入并长期持有。
And try to be a little bit slower moving and kinda figure out things that you can kinda be in and just leave.
嗯。
Mhmm.
你明白吗？
You know?
像这样，围绕着这些交易确实很难，但你还是可以做到并赚钱。
Like, it's it's it's hard to trade around things, but you can do it and make money.
但更舒服的方式是直接参与其中，看着它上涨。
But it's also nicer to just be in it and watch it run.
你懂我的意思吗？
You know what I mean?
所以这还挺有意思的。
So that was kinda interesting.
然后我从中学到了信心，当然不是要太偏离主题，但布伦特的做法非常好。
And then I got confidence from that, not not to switch subjects too far, but Brent Brent Brent does a very good way.
布伦特对美国市场有一种低调看涨的绝佳方式。
Brent has a good mode of being understatedly bullish to US.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，他就是那种态度，你知道的。
I mean, like, he's like he's like, you know, like, he kinda has that attitude.
你看。
Like, look.
现在人人都喜欢攻击美国，而我们得不到公平的媒体报道。
Everybody likes to throw rocks at The United States right now, and we don't get fair media coverage.
然后他跑去告诉你事情到底是怎样的。
And then he comes goes and tells you this is how it did.
宏伟的法案，美国的再工业化，天才之举，稳定币计划，史蒂文·弗里德伯格负责战略资本办公室，你知道的。
Big beautiful bill, the reindustrialization of America, the genius act, the stablecoin plan, Steven Friedberg running the, you know, office of strategic capital.
这种事你可不能看空。
Like, you don't wanna fade this stuff.
我跟你说真的。
I'm telling you.
你明白我的意思吗？
You know what I mean?
而且，你觉得这一点是对的。
And, like, you agree with that.
你明白吧？
You know?
因为这是特朗普政府的政策，所以所有事情在媒体上都被赋予了负面含义，我们做的每一件事都必须是负面的。
And it's just everything gets such a negative connotation in the press because it's Trump's, you know, admin, and everything that we're doing has to be negative.
他说，他并不这么看。
And he's like, I'm not seeing it that way.
你懂的？
You know?
他说他对美国非常乐观，认为这些举措都会落实到位。
He's like, he's pretty bullish in The US and thinks that this stuff is gonna follow through.
所以他最让我印象深刻的一张幻灯片是那个关于索罗斯、醉酒的、对的象限。
So My favorite slide from his was the the, like, quadrant of of Soros, Drunk Yeah.
贝桑特和更糟的。
Besant and and Worse.
更糟。
Worse.
而且，如果你是研究市场和博弈的学生，你知道，德雷克、索罗斯，政治确实分裂了，但情况不可能比这更好了。
And, you know, if you're a student of the game and markets, like, you know it doesn't Drak, Soros, you know, politics is have kind of divided, but you know it doesn't get any brighter than this.
当你坐在那里时，你就会想，这些家伙真是太棒了。
And when you're sitting there, you're just like, you know, I like, these guys are magnificent.
是的。
Yeah.
而且，是的，当他们进入华盛顿特区时，各种腐败问题，诸如此类的事情。
And, yeah, every the corruption when they get to DC and these sorts of things.
但当涉及到做出正确决策时，我相信美国深厚的资本市场才是让我们拥有强大经济和主权的根本，这一点我们常常在事情顺遂时忽略，而转而去关注社会问题。
But but when it comes to making the right, you know and I'm a big believer that The US's deep capital markets is what allows us to have such a powerful strong economy, sovereignty, etc, you know, above all else, which we lose sight of what things are going so good, then we get into the social issue.
是的，这就像第一世界的问题。
Yeah, where it's like, I know first world problems.
但如果你有正确的领导指引，你就可以对周围的各种事情持不同意见。
But if you have that, you know, guidance at the helm, you can kind of disagree with all the things around the edges and the what's going on.
但你必须找到某种确定性，知道事情会动荡不安。
But, but you have to find some, you know, surety or that it's gonna it's tumultuous.
有时我觉得，作为社会和媒体，我们却把很多指责和仇恨指向那些真正揭示问题的人。
And sometimes I feel like we as a society of media, point a lot of fingers and and hatred towards the people that are actually shining the light on the problems.
是的。
Yeah.
试图去解决它，却说你才是问题的始作俑者。
Attempting to fix it, saying you started this problem.
就好像我在努力解决它，而你根本不知道这个问题的存在，是的。
It's like, maybe I'm trying to fix it, and you didn't know about the problem Yeah.
直到我开始尝试解决它，因为其他人都对你撒了谎，把问题推迟了十年。
Until I started trying to fix it because everybody else lied to you and tried kicking the can another ten years.
是的。
Yeah.
因此，我认为关于这类问题的教育是
And so I think education around that sort of thing is
是的。
Yeah.
我们实际上是在回归这些人的基本原理。
We really boil down to first principles of of those guys.
对吧？
Right?
比如，如果你回溯到五年前，告诉一个对宏观经济学非常热衷的人，说索罗斯、查克和米勒的校友将会执掌财政部和中央银行，每个人都会觉得
Like, if you if you rewind five years ago and you told somebody who's super into macro or whatever that, you know, that that the Soros, Chuck, and Miller alumni is gonna be running the Treasury and Central Bank, everybody would be
是的。
Yeah.
但问题是，他们全都是投机者。
But the problem is that they're all fits.
但他们全都押注在
But they're all they're all in on
货币贬值的交易上。
the debasement trade stuff.
他们说：‘哦，不。’
And they're like, oh, no.
现在，华盛顿要毁掉我的货币贬值交易了。
And now, Washington's gonna blow up my debasement trade.
所以他们很不安。
So they're upset.
即使他们没有持有这些头寸，也不知道总统是谁，他们只是关注那些负责这些领域的人。
Even though if they didn't have those positions on, they didn't know who the president was, they just sought those people in charge of those areas.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得会有更多人对正在发生的事情感到兴奋。
I think a lot more people would be excited about what's happening.
是的。
Yeah.
说得对。
Fair.
人们很难同时接受两个真相，因为你看到这种情况可能会想：我看好美国，因为这些人离开了。
People have a hard time keeping two truths together as well because you can see that and be like, well, I'm bullish to The US because these guys leaving.
但我同时也看好黄金，因为那是他们最大的持仓，因为他们知道，要让我们重回正轨，实际上需要贬值。
But I'm also bullish gold because that was all their biggest positions because they know that to get us back on the right ship, we actually need to debase.
我们需要做一些这样的事情。
We need to do some of these things.
这对黄金有利。
That's good for golf.
所以人们很难同时持有多种观点。
So people have a hard time holding multiple crews.
确实如此。
That's true.
确实如此。
That's true.
这是一个复杂的局面。
It's a tricky it's a tricky landscape.
现在这个局面真的很复杂。
It's a tricky landscape right now.
是的。
Yeah.
毫无疑问。
Big time.
过去几天还有什么其他重要的收获吗，各位？
Any other big takeaways for the last couple of days, guys?
我超喜欢JJ的故事，老兄。
I love JJ's story, man.
JJ讲述的那个实时交易的真实经历，简直让我大开眼界，老兄。
I literally, JJ's story about trading that live real time experience that he relayed was blew my mind, man.
所以他是个长期的大宗商品交易场内交易员。
So he's, like, a long time commodities pit trader.
他现在在哪？你们知道吗？
He's been now Where did you guys?
七十年代，老兄。
Seventies, man.
所以我第一次见他是在我为高盛工作的时候，当时我在交易大厅待了一段时间。
So I met him the first time when I for Goldman Sachs, I worked on the floor for a little while.
我下去成为他们的黄金期权经纪人，同时也得在交易大厅做一些黄金现货交易。
I went down to be their gold options broker and also had to do some spot trading in gold on floor.
JJ 是那里最顶尖的人物之一，声誉最好，也最用功，样样都精通。
And JJ was, like, one of the biggest guys down there and with the best reputation and, like, the most studious dude and, like, just had it all going on.
你能看出他是如何感知市场的。
And you can see how he breathes markets.
你知道吗？
You know?
这完全不一样。
Like, it's so different.
他的，他的是什么
What's his what's his
他的教育背景是什么？
I'm not What's his educational background?
我正想着他
Trying to think he
是的，他上过大学，我的意思是，这挺重要的。
Yeah, went to I mean, that's like, it's kind of important.
我得告诉你，公开喊价交易的消失是一件非常糟糕的事。
Yeah, I got to tell you, the disappearance of open outcry trading has been a very bad thing.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，也许从交易成本和滑点这些方面来看未必是坏事，但公开喊价交易所是一个任何孩子或任何普通人走进来都能参与竞争的地方。
Mean, maybe not necessarily in terms of transactions costs and slippage and stuff like that, but an open outcry exchange was a place where any kid or any asshole could walk in Mhmm.
然后竞争、学习并谋生。
And compete Yeah.
然后学习、成长，并靠此谋生。
And learn and and and make a living.
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