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关于前瞻指引的所有内容都不构成任何投资或产品的买卖建议。
Nothing said on forward guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products.
好的。
Alright.
大家好，最近怎么样？
What's going on, everybody?
欢迎回到前瞻指引的夏季特别版综述节目。
Welcome back to another summer edition of the roundup on forward guidance.
我们现在正处于夏季的淡季。
We're here in the doldrums of summer.
差不多快结束了。
It's almost over.
马上就到劳动节了。
It's almost back to Labor Day.
这周是杰克逊霍尔会议。
It's Jackson Hole meeting this week.
宏观世界里发生的事情可太多了，这么说一点都不夸张。
Lots going on in the macro world to say the very least.
马库斯，事情可真不少。
Lots going on, Marcus.
奎因，你那边怎么样？
What's going on, Quinn?
没什么特别的，兄弟。
Not much, man.
我现在在西班牙的圣塞巴斯蒂安，忙着吃吃喝喝，把健康计划往后推了，等九月份回去再开始。
I'm over in San Sebastian, Spain eating and postponing my health bender that will have to come starting September when I'm back.
所以你现在肯定特别关注市场吧，我猜。
So you're, like, really focused on markets right now, I bet.
对。
Yeah.
市场和海鲜饭。
Markets and Paella.
哦，我，不。
Oh, I No.
我是说，这确实是现在该做的事。
Love I mean, it's it's the right thing to be doing right now.
我是说，是的，虽然有很多大的宏观事件，但你知道，市场结构方面还是挺稳的。
I mean, yeah, there's, like, a lot of big macro events, but, you know, the market structure side of things is still pretty pinned.
比如，除了像黄金和比特币这种贬值交易，我们其实没怎么动。
Like, we haven't really been doing a whole lot other than outside of, like, the debasement trades, like gold and and Bitcoin.
比如股市，就是，我也不知道。
Like, equity markets, it just I don't know.
我们就是在震荡吧，估计是在等，我是说，今天有PC数据，我们待会儿会聊，然后今晚还有英伟达财报，接着是杰克逊霍尔的讲话。
We're just kinda chopping around, I guess, probably waiting for I mean, we got the PC number today, which we'll talk about, and then I'll send video earnings this evening, and then the Jackson Hole meeting speech.
市场好像就是在等这些事发生，再加上，你知道，劳工节到来，大资金回到办公桌前，因为现在大资金都在圣塞巴斯蒂安呢。
Seems like market just is kind of waiting for all that to happen plus, like, you know, Labor Day to hit and for the big money to get back to their desks because the big money is in San Sebastian right now.
那个总是最难卖的，我自己都不知道能不能卖出去。
That one's always the one when I don't know if I can sell it myself.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
不。
No.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得，在夏末这个时候，至少到劳工节之前，最好不要做任何太激进的操作，这总是很重要的。
I mean, it's it's always important, I think, at this at, like, the end of the summer to kind of just not try to make any really aggressive moves until Labor Day, at least.
当然，上周发生的情况是个例外，我们之前聊过黄金、比特币和贵金属的贬值交易。
Obviously, we had, like, this bit of an exception with what happened last week and what we talked about with the gold and Bitcoin and precious metals debasement stuff.
但除此之外，我觉得，别过度解读盘面。
But otherwise, it's like, yeah, don't overanalyze the tape, I think.
对。
Yeah.
现在本来就是低流动性、低成交量。
It's already low liquidity, low volume.
政策制定者和当权者在低成交量的环境下，以极快的速度进行干预。
The policymakers and powers that be are intervening at a extreme pace in a low volume environment.
所以你会看到债券市场干预、石油市场干预、波动率被压缩。
So you're, you know, you're getting bond market invention, oil market intervention, vol compression.
现在不是大举押注反对这些干预的时候，因为市场上几乎没什么人真的在卖。
Like it's not a time to make bets against that in a big way, probably because there's no one here to really sell.
但我的意思是，如果真的发生，左尾风险会很大，因为市场太薄了。
But I mean, left tail risk is big if it happens because of that.
不过我们接下来会聊到沃什和其他这些事。
But we'll get into Warsh and all these things.
他们正在想尽办法消除左尾风险，所以你就押注那些……对。
Like, they're doing everything to remove the left tail, so just bet on the Yeah.
他们正在做的那些事。
Stuff that they're
咱们来聊聊这周的重头戏，就是宏观大佬们之间的戏剧和内斗。
Let's let's get into the meat of this week, which is drama and infighting in the land of macro goats.
我们请到了斯坦·德鲁肯米勒。
We had the we had Stan Druckenmiller.
德鲁克，绝对的传奇人物，你知道的，他教出了贝森特和沃什这些徒弟。
Druck, the absolute legend and, you know, the the master who taught all these proteges like like Bessent and Warsh.
他写了一篇专栏文章，我一会儿再谈AI的事，但先说说实质内容，那就是德鲁克对财政部长斯科特·贝森特在正常运作的市场中用回购来抵御收益率上升的做法，给出了负面评价。
And he he wrote an op ed, and I will talk about the AI thing in a minute, but let's talk about the substance first, which is that, yes, the Druck rendered an unfavorable opinion of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's use of buybacks to defend against higher yields in a market that is functioning normally.
他说，我五十年的交易生涯都基于一个简单的原则。
He said, I've spent five decades trading on a simple premise.
市场汇聚了任何委员会都无法掌握的信息，而价格就是这些信息传递给决策者的途径。
Markets aggregate information no committee possesses, and prices are how that information reaches decision makers.
长期国债收益率是全世界最重要的价格。
The long term treasury yield is the most important price in the world.
它也是美国仅存的财政纪律约束者。
It is also the only fiscal disciplinarian The US has left.
每一个基点的人为收益率压制，都是在给拖延症发补贴。
Every basis point of artificial yield suppression is a subsidy to procrastination.
把回购恢复到它本来的用途，就是小规模、按计划、由发行方主导的流动性操作，在每个季度的再融资公告时进行，绝不要像这次一样在计划外搞。
Return buybacks to their state of purpose, small scheduled, author owned liquidity operations, announce a quarterly refundings, never off cycle like what just happened.
然后最后一句话，任何对AI生成内容有敏锐眼光的人都会注意到，如果三十年国债必须交易在5.5%才能清掉，那这不是危机，这是一张账单。
And then the last sentence, which might jump into anybody who has a keen eye for for AI slop, the, if the thirty year must trade at 5.5% to clear that isn't a crisis, it is an invoice.
显然，是的，你知道，信息很明确，任何多年来听过或读过德鲁肯米勒的人都会知道，他站出来强烈批评政府干预和进一步增加债务负担，这已经是他敲了几十年的警钟了。
Obviously so, yeah, this you know, the message was clear, and anybody who's been listening or reading to Druckenmiller over the years will know that him coming out here and being a strong critic of government intervention and further increases in the debt loads, like, he's been banging this drum for for decades now.
所以这真的不意外。
So it's it's not really any surprise.
我觉得让人意外的是，你知道，我发了那条推文，就是有那么一个时刻，感觉好像有一场非常理想化的四维棋局在进行，你有，比如，索罗斯作为宏观领域的历史最佳，然后他所有的门徒突然都掌权了。
I think what is surprising is that, you know, I I wrote this tweet out that I just there was a moment in time where it felt like there's this really idealistic 40 chess going on that you have, like, the you know, if you have Soros as like the goat of all time of macro and then all his proteges are now suddenly in places of power.
你有，你知道，沃什在美联储，贝森特在财政部，然后也许德鲁肯米勒在幕后，作为所有这些不同玩家之间的纽带。
You have, you know, Warsh Warsh at the Fed, you have Bessent at the Treasury, And then you maybe have Druckenmiller in the background as as the linkage between all these different players.
而且，你知道，他们会进来解决大问题。
And, you know, they're gonna come in and and solve the big problems.
他们会解决债务问题。
They're gonna solve the debt issue.
他们会解决赤字问题。
They're gonna solve deficits.
他们会解除收益率曲线压制，所有这些事情。
They're they're gonna unwind yield curve suppression, all this stuff.
所以看到他出来批评贝森特，第一反应就是，好吧。
And so to see him come out and criticize Bessent, like, the initial reaction is, okay.
嗯，这显然没有我们想的那么协调。
Well, this is obviously not nearly as coordinated as we thought.
但我觉得有些人已经开始猜测第二层反应了，那就是，你知道，德鲁肯米勒是个市场杀手。
But I think some folks have already started to speculate on the secondary reaction, which is like, you know, Druckenmiller is a market killer.
对吧？
Right?
对他来说，第一位的永远是盈亏。
Like, number one for him is P and L.
而且，你懂的，你总会想他是不是在试探债券市场，看看如果我能这样批评沃什——抱歉，贝森特——甚至更严厉，而债券市场却不再抛售了。
And, you know, you do always wonder if he's just trying to test the bond market that, look, if I can criticize war sorry, Bessent like this, and maybe even worse too, and we don't see the the you know, we don't see bonds sell off anymore.
那可能就意味着收益率到顶了。
Maybe that's a that's a top of yields.
我不知道。
I don't know.
总之，我扯远了，奎因。
Anyway, I I'm going on a tangent, Quinn.
我很好奇，你对这整件事怎么看？
I'm I'm curious, like, what's your read on this whole thing?
我可能跟大多数人的看法不一样。
I probably have a different take than most on it.
我觉得，说到底，问题比特朗普、沃什或贝森特要大得多，对吧？
I think I do think, I mean, at the end of the day, the problems are so much bigger than Trump or Warsh or Bessent, right?
这些都是积累了二三十年、一直拖延和踢皮球的问题。
These are things that have, or twenty, thirty years of, these were procrastination and kicking the can.
所以，指望他们在一个新政府上任的一年半内就解决这些问题，那是不现实的。
So to think that they can come and solve it in a year and a half of a new administration is just not realistic.
而且我确实觉得他们已经开始采取的一些措施是积极的，比如把储备管理购买降到零，还有讨论他们在资产负债表上可能采取的行动。
And I do think some of the moves they've started to make are positive, taking reserve management purchases to zero, talking about what they might do on the balance sheet.
事实是，这个问题比他们本身要大得多。
The facts are it's just a much bigger problem than them themselves.
所以我不明白为什么现在所有事情都非得立刻变得政治化，但我想这就是特朗普那种分裂或者他煽动起来的氛围的本质吧。
And so I don't know why everything has to just become instantly political these days, but I guess it's the nature of Trump's the division or whatever that he kind of drums up.
但我觉得那也没那么离谱。
But I didn't think it was that crazy.
比如，我想先说清楚，我不知道这是不是协调好的，但关于这些门背后发生的事情，我有很多不知道的。
Like, I would say I'll preface it with I don't know if this was coordinated or not, but there's a lot I don't know about what goes on behind these doors.
这些人都是非常有权势的。
These are very powerful people.
但如果这不是协调好的，那我会觉得很震惊。
But it would be shocking to me if this wasn't coordinated.
然后他就把需要做的事情都列出来了，而且这些都不是他第一次说了。
And he just lays out what needs to be done, and it's nothing new he's been saying.
就是说，这最终得靠国会来解决。
Like, this ultimately has to be fixed by Congress.
所以某种程度上，他是在帮贝森特减轻一点压力，然后说，嘿，你知道的，这就是需要发生的事情。
So in a sense, he's kind of trying to take the pressure off Bessent a little bit and saying like, hey, you know, this is what needs to happen.
如果收益率涨到5.5，这很可能发生，那不是贝森特的错，是国会的错。
If yields go to 5.5, which they very well probably will, it's not Bessent's fault, it's Congress's fault.
贝森特不应该插手去管这个。
And Bessent shouldn't step in and do this.
我完全是从相反的角度来理解的，就是说，当事情变得一团糟的时候呢？
I I totally read it as the opposite in saying, like, okay, when shit hits the fan?
就像是一个试探气球。
Like, a total trial balloon.
好的。
Okay.
如果从现在起两三个月后，收益率真的到了5.5%，事情闹大了怎么办？
When shit hits the fan because five and a half percent, two, three, four months ago from now?
别把矛头指向贝森特。
Don't point at Bessent.
全球最厉害的投资者德鲁克都说了，他不该插手。
The best investor in the world, Druck, said he shouldn't do that.
要怪就怪国会。
Point at Congress.
他们得解决这个问题。
They need to fix it.
所以我的解读完全不一样。
So I just interpret it so differently.
如果抛开政治因素，我觉得他其实挺客观的。
Like, if you remove the politics, in my opinion, he's just kind of pretty objective.
贝森特心里也很清楚这一点。
And Bessent very well knows this.
贝森特在就职之前就说过同样的话。
Bessent has said the same things before he was in office.
他当时在批评耶伦。
He was criticizing Yellen.
他批评国会把赤字搞得这么大。
He's criticizing Congress for for running the deficit so big.
而且他没法单方面改变这些。
And he can't unilaterally change any of that.
所以我觉得他有点像，嗯，找个朋友帮忙，来铺垫这个说法。
So I think he kinda, like, asked for some help from from a friend here to to plant the narrative.
我也不太确定。
I I don't know.
我的理解和推特上看到的完全不一样。
I've just a totally different read than what I'm seeing on Twitter.
大家对这个事情太情绪化了。
Like, people were so emotional about it.
对。
And Yeah.
克劳德，你知道，写一篇专栏文章，把我们的所有问题都归咎于国会，而不是财政部长。
Claude, you know, write out a write out a op ed that, blames Congress for all our issues and not the head of the Treasury.
嗯，我有点好奇。
Well, I was I'm kinda curious.
要是能知道他是怎么写出来的，那会很有趣。
It'd be fun to know how he wrote this.
比如，他是不是贴了四个链接，指向他谈论这个问题的采访，然后说，克劳德，写写这个。
Like, did he did he post four links to a bunch of interviews he did of him talking about this problem and say, Claude, write about this.
你知道吗？
You know?
他是不是给了个概要，然后说，润色一下？
Did he give it a synopsis and say, touch this up?
这有点好笑，但我想这显示了他对AI的看好，因为AI在帮他写能影响市场的专栏文章。
Like, it's kind of funny, but I guess it shows he's bullish AI because it's helping him write market moving, you know, op eds.
对。
Yeah.
我的意思是，抛开政治争论不谈，确实有一个很有意思的讨论。
I mean, it there has been an interesting debate on you know, setting aside the political debate.
关于语言学、社会和沟通方式的未来，这个讨论其实挺有意思的，因为就像是在说，好吧。
The actual debate around, like, the future of linguistics and society and how we communicate has actually been quite interesting because it's like, okay.
首先，你有史上最受尊敬的出版物之一《华尔街日报》，它公开承认发布了AI生成的内容，这本身就很有意思。
One, you have one of the most revered publications ever, The Wall Street Journal, who's, you know, admitting the public the the published AI generated content, which is one very interesting.
你还有史上最伟大的宏观交易员之一，他说，对。
You have one of the greatest macro traders of all time who's saying, yeah.
当然用了，他一点都不避讳。
Of course, used Like, he's not shying away from it.
你知道吗？
You know?
然后他说，你看。
And he said that, like, look.
我的名字就在那张纸条上。
My name's on the on on the on the note.
很明显，这就是我的意思。
Like, it's clearly my message.
不管它是怎么写的。
Doesn't matter how it was formulated.
你知道，几十年前，更轻松一点的版本就是，好吧，你在Word里用拼写检查。
You know, like, obviously, a more chill version of this decades ago was like, okay, you spell check-in Word.
对吧？
Right?
那难道因为这样，就不是我说的话了吗？
Like, does that mean it's not my wording because of that?
它不是从我脑子里出来的。
It didn't come from my brain.
它是从电脑里出来的。
It came from the computer.
所以我不太清楚。
So I don't know.
我是说，这挺有意思的。
I mean, it's quite interesting.
我当然理解那种不想把思考和观点外包出去，而是用它来完善的想法。
Like I'm certainly, I'm certainly sympathetic to the idea of not like outsourcing your opinion and thinking, using it to refine.
对，我是说，也许他只是写了一些要点，然后让AI稍微润色一下。
And yeah, I mean, maybe he just wrote out some bullet points and then had AI just try to try to, you know, just dress it up a little bit.
经过这种润色，我觉得，我不会说德鲁肯米勒没有接触AI。
And through that dressing up, like, you I feel like, you know, I'm I'm not gonna say that Druckenmiller not tapped into AI.
显然，他接触了。
Obviously, he is.
你知道，他做了一段时间的英伟达交易之类的。
You know, he he wrote the the NVIDIA trade for a while and all that.
但要真正理解那些AI腔有多尴尬，比如那种“不是这个，是这个”的说法。
But, like, to really to really understand, like, how cringe some of those AI isms are, like, the it's it's not this, it's this type of stuff.
比如说，这不是危机。
Like, the this isn't a crisis.
这是账单。
It's an invoice.
显然，你知道，我也让AI帮我写过东西，然后有时候我会确保那些AI腔调没有被用进去。
Like, obviously, you know, I've had AI write things for me, like, and then sometimes I'll just make sure that those AI isms aren't, you know, incorporated.
所以这几乎是相反的，我可能只用它来生成想法或结构，然后我自己写出来。
Then, so it's almost like the opposite where I might just use it for like idea or structure generation, and then maybe I'll write it out myself.
我不知道。
I don't know.
这是一个有趣的辩论，而且会越来越激烈。
It's it's an interesting debate that's gonna just accelerate,
我觉得。
I think.
至少他把双破折号去掉了。
At least he took out the double dashes.
那些是最明显的破绽。
Those are the most dead giveaways.
对。
Yeah.
不。
No.
他确实做了
He did a
小改动。
little dashes.
是的，
Yeah,
他确实做了一点修剪。
he did a little pruning.
但我还是有点站在他们那边。
But I again, I kind of side with them.
就像，你知道，就像小学时有人抄朋友的作业，然后他们把句子的结构改一下，换几个词的位置。
It's like, you know, it's like in grade school when someone's copying a friend's homework and then they change the structure of the sentence in three words around.
就像，嗯，那是你写的吗？
It's like, well, did you write that?
我想，大概吧。
I mean, I guess.
所以我不觉得这有什么大问题，只要你不必去摆弄它、重读它，以及你产出的内容，因为它确实会产生一些完全离谱、不是你想表达的东西。
So I don't really see that big of a problem with it as long as it doesn't you have to play with it and reread it and what you produce because it does produce some just totally off base stuff that you're not trying to say.
所以我有点同意。
So I kind of agree.
我的意思是，我们每天都用它来做研究，比如，好吧，我仍然自己写99%的东西，但我敢肯定他的接受度在提高。
I mean, all use it every day for our research and like, okay, I mean, I still write like 99% of my stuff, but I'm sure his acceptance moves on.
比如，你知道，你需要一篇配图文章。
Like, you know, you need a graphic for an article.
就像，记者不会自己画图。
Like, the journalist doesn't draw it.
对吧？
Right?
他从Getty Images上找一张图，或者，你知道，某个创作。
He finds something on Getty Images or, like, you know, some creation.
在我看来，这差不多是一回事。
It's kind of the same in my view.
我也不太确定。
I don't know.
但我不是艺术家，所以可能没那么在意。
But I'm not an artist, so maybe I take less offense to that.
我觉得，换个角度看，人类的交流是很神圣的，你知道，这一点很重要。
I mean, I guess the other side of the coin is like human, know, human communication is like a very sacred, you know, point.
这不仅仅是，呃，从我们嘴里说出来的话写在纸上。
Like, this isn't about this is, like, words coming from our mouths written into paper.
就像，你知道，这就像……我也不太清楚。
Like, you know, that's it's like I don't know.
这就好比，你懂的，决定全人类都用性爱机器人，而不是真实的生活伴侣。
It's it'd be like, you know, deciding that all of humanity is just gonna have, like, sex robots instead of, like, actual partners in life.
你明白吗？
You know?
就是，那些东西，我也说不好。
It's just like you like, those things are I don't know.
如果没有这些东西，人类还剩下什么呢？
It's like, what's humanity if we don't have those sort of things?
你说呢？
You know?
对。
Right.
但另一方面，世界上大概90%的人可能都不想听或读一个宏观投资者的文章，因为那可能又无聊又糟糕。
On the other side, though, it's like 90% of people in the world probably don't want to listen to a read a macro investor's, like, you know, writing because it's probably boring and shitty.
所以，我自己写东西的时候，就是数字、数据点，这个发生，然后那个。
So, like, I know when I'm writing, it's like number, data point, this happens, then that.
所以也许AI能帮上忙。
It's like so maybe AI could help.
我也不确定。
I don't know.
对。
Yeah.
我是说，确实。
I mean I mean, yeah.
有意思的是，德鲁肯米勒还得为他的专栏文章做一次后续采访。
It's interesting that Druckenmiller had to do a post interview about his op ed.
就是，另一个媒体的采访。
So so, like, another publication interview.
然后他在那里说，是的。
And that's where he's like, yeah.
当然，那是AI写的。
Of course, it was AI.
然后他说，你看。
And he's like, look.
我收到了更多的赞美，你知道，他真的是有史以来最谦逊的传奇人物之一。
I got I got more compliments about you know, he's like he's a genuinely one of the most humble, probably, GOATs of all time.
他就说，你看。
Like, he's just like, look.
我收到了更多人说文章写得好的赞美，这你知道，很能说明我个人的能力。
I got more I got more compliment compliments of people saying the writing was great, which, you know, says a lot about my own personal skills.
然后他说，对。
And he said, like, yeah.
我本来是英语专业的，后来转到了经济学专业，因为我英语太差了。
As a I was an English major, and then I moved into being an economics major because I was so shit at it.
这本来就应该说明问题了。
Like, that should have been telling.
我
I
太棒了。
love that.
我是说，他真的很酷。
I mean, he's a it's so cool.
对。
Yeah.
他真是个好人。
He's a beauty.
好。
Good.
他看起来是个很棒的人。
He he seems like an awesome dude.
对。
Yeah.
好的。
All right.
总之，是的，外面有很多猜测，也有很多情绪化的争论。
Anyway, yeah, a lot of speculation, a lot of emotional debate going on out there.
我想回到市场的话题上，还有什么呢？你知道，上周我们讨论了一个框架，关于贝森特可能做到的最大限度，以及我们觉得这更像是早期阶段，而不是一下子把所有大招都放出来。
I want to tie back in the markets of what else is You know, last week we talked about this framework of like the the the maxima of what's possible that Bessent can do and how we felt like it was more in the early innings than than, you know, shooting all the bazookas at once.
比如，只是进行20到40亿的回购，你知道，这更像是比赛开始的信号，而不是结束。
Like, just going for two to four billion buybacks is, you know, it's more just a signal of the starting of the race than than the end.
很快，我们就从CNBC的史蒂夫·利斯曼那里得到了消息，他提到财政部可以利用其近1万亿美元的TGA资金，来资助最近宣布的增购政府债券的计划，据两位高级财政部官员透露。
Pretty quickly, we got this, this news from, Steve Leaseman at at CNBC mentioning that the Treasury could use its near $1,000,000,000,000 in the TGA to help fund its recently announced plans to increase purchases of government bonds according to two senior treasury officials.
使用TGA将为财政部提供相当大的火力，以影响长期债券收益率。
Using the TGA would provide the Treasury with considerable firepower to influence long term bond yields.
所以这里有很多有趣的循环逻辑，就TGA运作的技术机制而言。
So lot of lot of funny circular logic here, in terms of just, like, the technical mechanics of how the TGA works.
但首先，TGA的资金主要来自票据或税收收入。
But one, the TGA is funded largely by bills or tax revenue.
而TGA里之所以有近万亿美元，是因为我们发行了这么多票据，而且他们必须设定一个目标，比如他们需要在TGA中保留大约五天的支出资金。
And the reason there's almost a trillion in the TGA is because we issue so much bills, and they have to target like a they need to be able to have about five days of of spending within the TGA.
所以，你发行的票据越多，基本上就需要在TGA里保留更高比例的现金。
So as you issue more bills, you basically need a higher proportion of of cash in the TGA.
所以，这整个就是一个循环逻辑。
So it's all it's it's just in this entire circular logic.
而且，实际上，发行票据来买债券，跟直接用TGA里的钱来回购债券，本质上只是时间上的区别。
And I mean, in practice, like the idea of issuing bills to buy bonds versus just using the TGA to to buy back the bonds, it's really just like semantics around timing.
显然，如果你直接动用TGA里已有的资金，就不需要发行那些票据了。
Like, obviously, if you just tap what's in the TGA already, you don't have to issue those bills.
所以，真的，这只是一个时间差的问题。
So really, it's just like this timing lag.
这几乎就像是用延迟发行短期票据来换取购买长期债券的机会。
It's almost like this trade of delaying the issuance of the front end to be able to buy the long end.
所以，你知道，我们显然不是直接从贝森特那里得到这个消息的。
So, you know, we didn't obviously get this from from Bessent directly.
这更多是来自CNBC的线索。
This is more of a a lead from the CNBC.
但是，是的，这正好说明他们想在这里大干一场。
But, yeah, it just shows that, you know, they wanna go big here.
你知道，贝森特已经准备好跟债券义警干一架了，他不想看到十年期收益率突破5%。
You know, Bessent is he's he's ready to do the fight against the bond vigilantes, and he does not wanna see that ten year above five.
你怎么看？这是否符合你预期的顺序？
How how do you think about is this lining up with how you see the sequence?
对，同意。
Yeah, agree.
我的意思是，目前这些都主要是口头表态，短期内会有效。
I mean, it's all mainly talk for now and that will work in the short term.
短期内确实奏效了。
It has worked in the short term.
所以，当你考虑市场的潜在威胁时，比如债券波动率和收益率飙升。
So when you think about boogeyman risks to the market, right, you have bond vol and yield blowouts.
由于这些行动，债券波动率现在已经跌到谷底了。
Bond vol is now in the gutter as a result of these actions.
所以你就把那个大风险因素给排除了。
So you take that big risk factor off the table.
油价方面，他们一直能够压低、压低，再操控它往下跌。
Oil prices, they've continued to be able to suppress, suppress and manipulate those lower.
油价波动率现在接近年内低点。
Take oil volatilities near its lows year to date.
这又把那个风险给排除了。
That's taking that risk sort of off the table.
而且，在沃什领导下的美联储，你知道，他说话很强硬，也在暗示他想做的一些事情，比如缩短资产负债表的期限等等。
And you have a Fed under Warsh who, you know, is talking tough and sort of signaling towards things he wants to do to reduce the duration of the balance sheet, etcetera.
但他不会动利率。
But he's not going to rates.
他不会加息。
He's not going to hike rates.
美联储不会那么做。
The Fed is not going to do that.
所以当你把视野拉远，你会发现通胀保持黏性的条件相当有利，而那些一直在运行的交易也会继续有效，因为事情不会就这样结束。
And so when you zoom out, like it's pretty bullish conditions for inflation to stay sticky and trades that have been kind of running on the back to continue working because it just doesn't end this way.
你不能仅凭几句话就让数万亿美元的债券市场平静下来。
You don't calm a multi trillion dollar bond market with just some words.
但话说回来，短期内这招可能管用。
But that said, it can work in the short term.
所以我觉得真正让人困惑的是，是的，如果货币发行者或债券发行方出来说，我们要采取所有这些措施来压低收益率，收益率就会下降，投机者就会说，好吧，我要换个场地玩了。
So I think that's what's really throwing people for a loop is like, yeah, if the printer of the currency or the issuer of the bonds comes out and says, we're gonna do all these things to suppress yields, yields are gonna fall and speculators are gonna say, okay, I'm gonna take my ball and play on a different court.
也许我会转向货币贬值、金属和比特币。
Maybe I'm gonna to debasement and metals and Bitcoin.
然后我干脆就这么做，因为如果收益率飙升，他们就会这么做，货币贬值也会加剧。
And then I might as well just do that because if yields blow up, they're going to do this and debasement's going to go up.
如果收益率下降，货币贬值也会加剧。
If yields go down, debasement's going to go up.
所以短期内你会看到这种情况。
So you get that in the short term.
所以我觉得，未来一两周或两三周内，市场整体风险不会太大。
And that's kind of how I think I don't see massive broad market risks over the next week or two or three.
至于为什么，等周五杰克逊霍尔会议的时候我再详细说。
And I can get into why when we talk about Jackson Hole on Friday.
但正如德鲁克指出的，这远未解决。
But by no means, as Druck points out, is this solved.
赤字还是那样，还在增长，利息支出也在上升，通胀压力并没有消失，而且只要继续刺激，它们就不会消失。
Like the deficit still is what it is, it's growing, interest expense is rising, inflationary pressures are not going away, and they're not going to go away when you continue to stimulate.
经济没问题。
Economy's fine.
增长大概也没问题。
Growth is probably fine.
所以我觉得这个问题还会再次浮现。
So I think it will rear its head again.
我的意思是，只是时间问题，以及他们是想让它自然演变成真正的市场事件，还是继续压制它。
I mean, it's just a matter of when and when do they want to let it organically materialize into an actual market event versus stymieing it.
这要追溯到上周。
And it goes back to last week.
就像在八月初和八月中旬，距离中期选举还有三个多月，他们就已经在干预了。
It's like in early and mid August, three plus months out of midterms, they're intervening.
那为什么在接下来的一周、两周、四周里，他们会突然说，哦，我们现在决定，在更接近中期选举的时候，让这件事就这么发生？
Why in the world in the next one week, two weeks, four weeks would they all of a sudden say, oh, we're gonna decide now that we're even closer to the midterms to let this thing to let this thing go?
这对我来说真的说不通。
It just doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
所以这就是我接下来几周的看法，因为他们正在稀释法定货币，而且他们也在告诉你他们打算怎么做。
So that's kind of what I'm running with for the next few weeks because they're debasing fiat, and they're telling you what they're going to do.
我会在临近中期选举时重新评估，因为到那时激励因素会改变，他们可能真的会想施加一些通缩和周期性下行的压力，来促成接下来的一系列事件。
And I'll reevaluate as we get close to midterms because then the incentives change and they actually probably will want to put some disinflationary deflationary pressure and downward cyclical pressure to materialize the next series of events.
所以，在那之前，我觉得你可以放心。
So, but until then, like, I think you can rest on it.
任何你无法印出来的东西，你可能都想好好把握。
Like, anything you can't print, you probably wanna hone.
欢迎来到TOKEN2049。
Welcome to TOKEN2049.
TOKEN2049新加坡站将于10月7日和8日回归，汇聚25000名参会者、300位演讲嘉宾和500家参展商，打造全球最大的加密货币盛会。
TOKEN2049 Singapore is back October seventh and eighth, bringing together 25,000 attendees, 300 speakers, and 500 exhibitors for the world's largest crypto event.
TOKEN2049将与我们的亚洲数字资产峰会同期举行，并且双方将展开合作。
TOKEN2049 will be happening at the same time and in partnership with our own Digital Asset Summit Asia.
所以，请在同一周内来参观这两个会议。
So come check out both conferences during the same week.
在整个TOKEN2049周期间，将会有超过1000场周边活动，最终以2049之后的活动和一级方程式周末作为高潮。
Across TOKEN 2049 week specifically, there'll be more than 1,000 side events culminating with after 2049 and the Formula one weekend.
演讲嘉宾阵容在各个领域都非常强大。
And the speaker lineup is stacked across the board.
Polymarket的Shane Copland、Hyperliquid的Jeff Yan、Arthur Hayes、Balaji、纳斯达克CEO Adena Friedman等等，都会出席。
Shane Copland of Polymarket, Jeff Yan of Hyperliquid, Arthur Hayes, Balaji, Nasdaq CEO, Adena Friedman, and many more.
今年10月，加入我们，一起参加在新加坡举办的TOKEN2049和亚洲数字资产峰会。
Join us in Singapore this October for TOKEN2049 and the Digital Asset Summit Asia.
Avalanche峰会将于9月16日至17日在纽约市举行。
Avalanche Summit is coming to New York City September sixteenth to seventeenth.
欢迎加入正在构建下一代金融产品、企业系统和链上消费应用的商业与技术领袖。
Join the business and technology leaders building the next generation of financial products, enterprise systems, and consumer on chain.
在Avalanche纽约峰会上，了解区块链如何实现更快的结算、更高效的市场以及新的商业模式。
Learn how blockchain is enabling faster settlement, more efficient markets, and new business models at Avalanche Summit NYC.
注册参加Avalanche峰会，并使用促销代码Blockworks one five。
Register for Avalanche Summit and use promo code Blockworks one five.
在峰会之前，您还可以在Avalanche上追踪代币化股票以及代币化国债及其不断增长的影响力。
And ahead of the summit, you can track Avalanche tokenized equities alongside tokenized treasuries and their growing footprint on Avalanche.
通过Blockworks Research的Avalanche仪表盘，亲自查看这些数据。
See the data for yourself with Blockworks Research's Avalanche Dashboard.
别忘了和我们一起参加纽约市的Avalanche峰会。
And don't forget to join us in New York City for Avalanche Summit.
好的。
Okay.
我要放一段，那我们就进入杰克逊霍尔的话题吧。
I'm gonna play a so let's go into the Jackson Hole thing.
沃什的演讲是在周五。
The this this Warsh's speech is on Friday.
所以我们明天周四就会发布这个内容。
So we'll have this out tomorrow on Thursday.
你懂吧？
You know?
我们会把这个作为入门指南来呈现，如果我在考虑这个框架的话。
We'll so we'll we'll we'll frame this as a primer if I were thinking about the framework here.
所以，你知道，通常这些杰克逊霍尔的演讲是美联储官员真正揭示他们长期政策思考重大转变的机会。
So, you know, typically, these these Jackson Hole speeches are opportunities for, you know, Fed shares to really reveal big shifts in how they're thinking about, like, a lot more longer term policy.
你知道，他们不只是纠结于某一次会议的具体操作。
You know, they're not just caught in the weeds of what are they doing in this singular meeting.
所以这次可能会有几种不同的走向。
So there's a few different ways that this could go.
对我来说，就是，好吧。
For me, it's like, okay.
贝森特已经把牌亮出来了，摆在桌面上。
Bessent has put his has has laid his card out his cards out on the table.
我们知道他手里有什么牌，也知道他现在想干什么。
We we know what he's working with, and we know what he's trying to do now.
对我来说，最大的问题是沃什和美联储会怎么回应。
To me, the big question is how does Warsh and the Fed react to it?
而且他们怎么回应，是在沃什作为美联储主席，每周跟总统通话、每周跟贝森特沟通的背景下。
And and how do they react to it within the context of a Warsh, you know, of a of a Fed chair that's talking to the president on a weekly basis, that's talking to Bessent on a weekly basis.
他如何回应贝森特最近几周的举动，会非常能说明问题。
Like, it's gonna be very revealing how he reacts to what's happened, though what Bessent's been doing in recent weeks.
所以，好吧。
So okay.
我觉得有几种可能的发展方向。
If there's a couple ways that this could go of how I'm thinking about it.
一种可能是，他会利用杰克逊霍尔这个机会，尽可能多地发表鹰派言论，因为这样做不会有什么实际后果，毕竟那次会议没有利率决策。
One is that he will use Jackson Hole as an opportunity to talk as much hawk talk as he can because there's really no repercussions to it because there's no rate in the decision.
所以他在杰克逊霍尔可以放鹰话，然后等到九月份的会议，也不会加息什么的。
So he can talk hawk during Jackson Hole, and then once he gets to the September meeting, not hike or anything like that.
他为什么要这么做呢？
Why would he do that?
一个途径就是想试着压制长期收益率。
One avenue is to try to try to tame the long end.
你知道，显然，上次新闻发布会上他试图这么做的时候，他想在不加息的情况下放鹰话，结果大家都看穿了他的把戏。
You know, obviously, when he tried to do this in the last press conference, he was trying to talk hawk without hiking, and everybody called his bluff.
然后他们就说，好吧。
And they're like, okay.
既然你说这么多，那你他妈的为什么不加息呢？
Well, if you're saying all these things, like, why the fuck aren't you hiking?
这大概就是长期收益率一直下不来的原因。
And and that's kinda why the the longest hold off.
但问题是，你看。
But it's like, look.
我们现在在杰克逊霍尔，那里没有利率决策会议。
We're in we're there's there's no rate decision meeting at Jackson Hole.
所以他可以大放厥词，试图压低长期收益率，然后在九月份再改变方向。
So he can he can talk a big game, try to tame that long end, and then just reverse course in September.
所以这显然是一条路。
So that's obviously one avenue.
你知道，我会说这确实能达到一些和贝森特类似的目标，比如降低收益率，但也会导致市场波动性加大。
The you know, I would say that that's pretty it's it achieves some goals that are similar to Bessent, one being, like, lower yields, but it's also, like, gonna cause higher volatility in markets.
第二条路是，他可能会在资产负债表上表现得有点鹰派，谈论我们试图扭转在长期端的操作，但在短期端则更鸽派。
The second avenue is that he's you know, maybe he maybe he talks a bit hawkish on the balance sheet and talks about, you know you know, we're trying to reverse course out of what we've been doing in the long end, but then he's more dovish on the short end.
那为什么他在短期端要表现鸽派呢？
And and why would he be dovish on the short end?
你知道，也许他会暗示，实际上我知道RMP，即回购操作，应该会回到零。
You know, maybe he hints at actually I know RMP is, like, revert reserve purchases are are supposed to go back to zero.
但你看。
But look.
比如说，如果贝森特想通过发行大量短期国债来为长期债券融资，那么，如果短期国债发行过多，你就会开始看到相当大的SOFR基差波动。
Like, if if Bessent's trying to issue a bunch of bills on the short end to fund the bonds, like, eventually, if if you issue too much bills, you start to get pretty large, you know, SOFR basis volatility.
而且你可能会看到那些短期货币市场利率开始高于SOFR，这时候事情就会变得棘手。
And and and you could see those those, you know, short term money market rates start to, you know, go above SOFR, which is when, you know, things get hiccupy.
所以，也许他试图在长期端表现得更加鹰派，这样他就有理由不在短期端加息，保持利率低位，然后可能暗示恢复RMP，以帮助平滑贝森特试图做的事情的路径，对我来说，这将是一个非常强烈的信号，表明他们之间有相当程度的协调。
So, you know, maybe he tries to be a bit more hawkish on the long end so that he can rationalize not hiking on the short end, keep that rate low, and then maybe hinting at bringing back RMPs so that he can help, you know, smoothen the the runway for for what Bessent's trying to do, which to me, that would be a pretty large signal of of pretty significant coordination.
所以，是的，这就是我看待这件事的两个主要方式。
So, yeah, those are the two big ways I'm looking at it.
我很好奇，奎因，你对杰克逊霍尔有什么看法？
I'm curious, like, yeah, what's your framing for for Jackson Hole Quinn?
关于你的第一个观点，或者说可能的情景，即在短期端表现强硬，并且能够推动……
So to your first point or or potential scenario of talking tough on the front end and and, you know, being able to push.
我不太……虽然，嗯，有两个问题。
I'm not so like, I don't although well, two problems.
第一，如果他真这么做，一般来说，我不确定这能压低长期收益率，市场不一定会这么反应。
One, if he does that, just generally, I don't know that it does tame long end yields like a hawk like, I'm not certain that the the market would react that way.
但第二，他整个任期里，所有材料，包括他演讲前的那些，都强调了对长期端的鹰派立场。
But two, his whole tenure and all of his material leading up to his speeches, etcetera, have focused the hawkishness on the long end.
显然，委员会一直卡在提高短期利率上，他们想要庞大的资产负债表，还有这些乱七八糟的。
Obviously, the committee's stuck in this hike the front end, that they want a huge balance sheet and all this stuff.
他们甚至都不谈
They don't even talk with
很多。
a lot.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
他想扭转这个局面。
He wants to reverse that.
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所以他想要在长端保持鹰派，短端保持鸽派，同时缩减资产负债表，诸如此类。
So he wants to be hawkish, long end, dovish front end and reduce balance sheet and those things.
一个月前，或者两个月前，我会说——我记得我当时也说过——我在这里，我预计他如果真想表现鹰派，会在杰克逊霍尔会议上这么做，真的，你知道，开始说这就是我们要投票的内容，我们要实施这些，以及为什么资产负债表应该更小、久期更短等等。
A month ago, I would have said or two months ago, whatever I would have said, and I think I did say I'm here, I would expect him to, if he wants to actually be hawkish, he will do that at Jackson Hole and really, you know, start saying, this is what we're going to vote on and we're going to implement and this is why the balance sheet should be smaller and less duration, etcetera.
但问题是，过去两周之后，他做不到了。
The problem now post the last two weeks is he can't.
比如，如果他在长端发表鹰派言论，我们知道他根本不相信短端应该加息，而且在我看来，他不会在短端表现鹰派。
Like, if he talks hawkish long end, we know he fundamentally does not believe the front end should go up and he will not, in my opinion, be hawkish on the front end.
所以他的途径就是长端和资产负债表。
So his avenue is the long end balance sheet.
他做不到。
He can't.
他简直是在火上浇油，我是说，你可以称他为他的同事或对手
Like he's throwing gasoline in, I mean, you can call it his colleague or his counterpart
或者他的，
or his,
我会说是老板。
I'd say boss.
如果他大谈特谈资产负债表鹰派立场，那简直就是在贝森特脸上泼汽油，因为这对长端不利，会导致收益率上升。
He's throwing gasoline in Bessent's face if he talks super hawkish balance sheet is that that's bad for the long end and causes yields to rise.
所以我觉得，两三四周前杰克逊霍尔会议可能是个大事或者挺有意思的，但现在我觉得它完全被削弱了，因为市场已经开始反应了。
So I think what was an event or interesting over two, four weeks ago in terms of this Jackson Hole, I think it got totally neutered because the market started reacting.
人们都在说，哦，有通胀了。
People were like, oh, there's inflation.
沃什想卖久期，随便吧。
Warsh wants to sell duration, whatever.
而且它被削弱了，因为他们连续几天干预，回购、加倍回购、三倍回购，还有回购的TGA，连续好几天。
And it got neutered because they intervened with the buybacks and the doubling of the buybacks and the tripling of the buybacks and the TGA of the buybacks, like consecutive days.
所以我觉得他几乎没有理由、意愿或动机去对……采取鹰派立场，因为就像你说的，这完全违背了这届政府想要实现的目标，无论是政治上为中期选举考虑，还是他们近期在压低收益率方面采取的行动。
So I think there's almost no reason or will or why he would be hawkish on the because, like you said, it goes exactly against what this administration is trying to achieve, both politically into the midterms and through their actions near term as to what they've been trying to do in terms of suppress yield.
所以这么说感觉有点奇怪，因为我对债券其实没有太强的看法。
So it feels weird saying this because, like, I don't really have a strong view on bonds here.
我我确实不想持有它们，但我也说不准。
I I don't I surely wouldn't wanna own them, but I don't know.
收益率已经降下来了。
Yields have come down.
也许在这里做空债券，押注收益率上升。
Maybe short bonds here, play for higher yields.
但特别是在杰克逊霍尔会议之前，我看不出他们有什么理由选择那条路去惹事生非，而且我觉得他们也没有那个余地。
But going into Jackson Hole in particular, I don't see any reason why they would choose that path of of stirring up shit, and I don't think they have the latitude to do so.
所以我觉得说实话，这根本不算什么事。
So I think it's a nothing burger, to be honest.
就像，我我我一点都不担心。
Like, I I I'm not really worried about it at all.
对。
Yeah.
这挺有意思的。
It's interesting.
对，是的。
I yeah.
我大体上同意你的看法，他看起来确实不太可能那么激进地跟他们对着干。
Probably directionally agree with with you that it's it seems very unlikely for him to go against them that aggressively.
我是说，确实，我觉得这几张图表挺有意思的，特别是看利率变动的情况。
I mean, for sure, like, I found these couple charts quite interesting just looking at where the the move in in rates has been.
你可以看到，这主要是期限溢价的变化，而不是利率预期的变化。
And you can see it's it's largely been term-premium versus rate expectations.
比如世界其他地方，他们的长期利率因为稍微偏鹰派的利率预期而出现了显著的重新定价。
Like, the rest of the world, their long ends have been repricing quite significantly on on slightly more hawkish rate expectations.
但你可以看到，美国这边的很多变动其实跟期限溢价有关。
But you can see that, like, a lot of the move in The US has been in relation to term-premium.
期限溢价，你知道，每个人对期限溢价衡量什么都有自己的看法。
Term-premium, you know, this is just everybody has an opinion on what term premium measures.
但对我来说，我觉得很明显，当你看到这两者之间的对比时，这次抛售更多是关于信心危机，对美国的情况——无论是财政状况、赤字，还是干预方式——的信心危机。
But to me, I think it's it's quite obvious when you just look at the contrast between these two that this this sell off has been in terms of a it's it's been a bit more about a crisis in confidence on, you know, the situation that The US whether it's the fiscal situation, the deficits, or just, you know, the intervention style.
但是当我们把这个事实结合起来看，好吧，他们显然已经决定要尝试，你知道，即使德鲁肯米勒不同意，他们也要试图让市场按照他们想要的价格来走。
But when when we pair that with the fact that, alright, they've clearly decided that they're going to try to, you know, even though Druckenmiller disagrees, they're gonna try to force the market to the price that they want.
而且一旦你开始这个过程，你就停不下来了。
And once you start that process, you cannot stop.
你知道，这真的是一场非常非线性的斗争。
You you and and, you know, it's a very nonlinear fight.
就像，这几乎像一条渐近线，你知道，你越接近目标，你需要花的钱就越多，因为市场知道你想做什么。
Like, it's like it's almost like an asymptote where, like, you know, the the more the closer you get to your target, the more money you need to spend because the market knows what you're trying to do.
而且这就像是指数级的更多的流动性或美元，这就是为什么，你知道，我仍然非常安心于我的黄金和比特币的贬值交易。
And it's just like exponential more amount of liquidity or dollars, which is why, like, you know, I'm still extremely comfortable in my debasement trades of of gold and Bitcoin.
对他们来说，这周过得不错。
It's it's been a good week for them.
而且，你知道，我就是，是的。
And, you know, I just yeah.
我想跟着他们的步伐走。
I wanna ride those those coattails.
我可能同意你的看法，债券市场确实有一些不错的短期做空机会，但我就是对这个游戏不感兴趣。
I I I probably agree with you that, you know, there's some decent short term shorts to be had in bonds, but I'm just, like, not interested in that game.
现在这个市场，尤其是长期国债，交易起来真是糟糕透了。
Like, it's such a just such a shit market to trade these days, like the long end.
是的。
Yeah.
我更愿意直接持有那些会表现好的资产，就像你说的，那些印不出来的东西。
I'd rather just own the assets that are gonna that are gonna do well, like you said, the things you can't print.
对。
Yeah.
我也是。
Me too.
我的意思是，债券市场和利率比大多数资产类别更倾向于均值回归。
I mean, the bond market and interest rates are more mean reverting than most asset classes.
所以在评估这些市场时，你得记住这一点，因为高利率会导致低利率，低利率又会导致高利率。
So you have to keep that in your mind if evaluating these markets because high rates beget lower rates and lower rates beget high rates.
就像大宗商品一样，高价格会解决供应短缺，因为高价格会刺激生产，然后价格就会下跌。
Just like commodities, high commodity prices solve supply shortages because they bring on production and then prices fall.
低价格会刺激需求，增加消费，价格就会上涨，直到……所以这是一个类似的动态，股票显然有向上的趋势，因为盈利增长，随着时间推移会复利增长。
Low prices stimulate demand, increase consumption and prices rise until So it's a similar dynamic where stocks obviously have an upward drift because earnings grow and over time they compound.
所以股票、黄金和比特币似乎有更多的上升趋势。
So stocks and gold and Bitcoin seem to have more of an upward drift.
所以这就是我想说的。
So that's what I would just say.
我的意思是，你指出的图表显示，期限溢价大幅上升，收益率大幅上升，实际利率大幅上升，达到历史非常非常高的水平。
I mean, the chart you pointed out, term premiums rose dramatically, yields rose dramatically, real rates rose dramatically to very, very high levels on a historical basis.
这对经济活动、经济增长、住房以及经济中所有这些基础引擎都有影响。
And that has an impact on activity, economic growth, housing, all these sort of underlying engines in the economy.
它限制了融资条件，使举债变得更加昂贵。
It restricts financing conditions, makes it more expensive to raise debt.
所以我认为，你知道，财政刺激的条件在进入下半年时并不那么充分，真的不太可能出现像2022年那样疯狂的收益率趋势环境。
So I think that, you know, the fiscal impulse conditions aren't really there so much going into the back half of year to really get like a crazy, you know, 2022 style trending yields environment.
所以我可能会倾向于均值回归。
So I would kind of bet, like, be biased towards mean reversion.
但话虽如此，债券，特别是主权债券的结构性前景确实很糟糕，我绝对不想做多，但我觉得现在也不是做空的好时机。
But that said, like, is a just very ugly structural outlook, for for bonds, sovereign bonds that, like, I I definitely don't wanna long them, but I don't think this is, like, an attractive place to short either.
对。
Yeah.
好的。
Alright.
我们跳出货币和财政政策的话题，聊聊市场的其他部分。
Let's get out into the out of the monetary fiscal world, talk a little bit about other parts of the market.
Anthropic 的 IPO 快来了，我想听听你的看法。
Anthropic IPO's coming up, which I wanna get your take on.
这刚上新闻，Anthropic 预计 IPO 市值将超过 SpaceX，此前它告诉投资者其营收可能超过 300 亿美元。
This just hit the news, but Anthropic expected IPO at larger market cap than SpaceX after telling investors its revenue could exceed $30,000,000,000,000.
就像
Just like
好吧，这真是个好消息。
Well, let's just good news.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
就是，你知道，这让我想起加密货币泡沫最热的时候，那些以太坊的狂热粉丝拿以太坊的价格跟全球GDP比，然后说，对。
Just, you know, it it reminds me of of during the hype of of the crypto bubble where, like, ETH Maxies were comparing the price of ETH to global GDP and saying, yeah.
我可以继续。
I could go.
或者，比如，跟全球M2比。
Or, like, the global m two.
感觉就是同一回事。
Feels like the same thing.
就在他们谈论这个并急着要IPO的同时，他们的收入四周增长率其实一直在放缓。
At this at the same at the same vein of them talking about this and trying to rush for an IPO, yeah, their four week growth rate of of their revenue has actually been slowing down.
而且，你知道，对于那些对市场这一块很了解的人来说，竞争已经有了显著的改善，尤其是在开放权重模型方面。
And, you know, for for those that are pretty tapped into this side of of the market, like, there's been a pretty significant improvement in competition, especially around open weight models.
我们开始看到一些，对，这方面真的有了很大的进步，以至于你不得不开始质疑，第一，这些前沿模型会不会被商品化？
We started to see some, yeah, like really significant improvements on that side of things to the point where like you have to start to question about whether, one, are these frontier models, are they gonna get commoditized?
你知道，会不会在利润率上变成一场竞相压价的比赛？
You know, is it gonna be a race to zero in terms of margin?
我当然认为，Anthropic和OpenAI真的需要在接下来一年里做出一些特别的东西，才能领先于这些开放权重模型。
I certainly think that, you know, they Anthropic and and OpenAI are really gonna have to do something really special over the next year to stay ahead of these open way models.
我的意思是，真正的赌注是他们在其他一切之前实现递归自我改进，然后那就会让他们永远保持在最前沿。
I mean, really, the bet is that they get to, like, recursive self improvement before anything else, and then that just, like, permanently keeps them at the bleeding edge.
但我觉得如果这事不尽快发生，他们的护城河就会不断被侵蚀。
But I feel like if that doesn't happen anytime soon, their their moat is just gonna keep getting eroded away.
你知道，就连SpaceX也表现得很出色。
You know, SpaceX even is is really killing it.
比如Grok机器人，我最近一直在用，简直太厉害了。
Like, Grok bot, I've been using a bunch lately and it's just like absolutely incredible.
超级快，真的超级快。
Super, super fast.
Grok 4.6的成本只是Opus或Fable模型的一小部分，而且表现非常好。
Like, the cost of Grok 4.6 is a fraction of the cost of a of an Opus or a Fable model, and it and it does a really good job.
所以，我觉得有意思的是，他们这么急着要上市。
So, you know, it's interesting to me that they're racing so quickly to try to get this IPO at the door.
你总会想，他们到底在急什么。
You know, you never really wanna you you you gotta wonder what's the rush.
对吧？
Right?
他们是不是有什么没告诉你的？
Like, what are what are they not telling you?
总之，我很好奇你怎么看这件事。
So anyway, yeah, curious curious how you think about this.
其实我是个坚定的AI基本面多头，但这更多是关于采用和使用场景，而不是前沿模型的利润保护。
Like, I'm a huge, you know, structural fundamental AI bull, but it's not like, like that's more about adoption and use case, not about margin protection for frontier models.
我觉得竞争会非常激烈。
Like I think there's gonna be a lot of competition.
这就是我的看法。
That's kind of where I'm at.
对。
Yeah.
首先，这确实挺搞笑的。
I mean, first of all, yeah, I this is goofy.
就是挺搞笑的。
I mean, is just goofy.
我觉得这些人急着上市，背后肯定有一些不太正面的原因，就像SpaceX那样。
I think that there's there's reasons that are not positive ones why these guys are sprinting to the market in the same way SpaceX.
SpaceX在接下来不到九个月的时间里，还有超过一万亿的市值等着解锁呢。
SpaceX still has over a trillion dollars of market cap to unlock in the next year, less than nine months basically.
这真是可笑，说实话，我又想到，你知道，这有点可悲，这些东西就这样被塞给公众，塞进这些指数里，还是在这个价位。
It's laughable and it's honestly, I just go back to it's like, you know, it's sad in a way that this stuff is just getting put in, stuffed in on the public and in these indices at these levels.
这就是民粹主义兴起的原因，因为你会看到这些结果和事件，实在太离谱了。
It's why the populism stuff is just because you get these outcomes and events that it's it's so egregious.
这真的很恶心。
It's it's it's pretty gross.
但你看那张图表，有一张流传的图表，显示中国模型的使用量相对于美国的情况。
But when you look at that chart, there's a chart floating around of of Chinese model token usage relative to The US.
从今年早些时候开始，那就是一条垂直的直线。
And it's a it's a vertical linear line since earlier this year.
我的意思是，这是不是房间里的大象，没人谈论美国正在输掉AI竞赛？
And I mean, is that the elephant in the room no one's talking about that US is losing the AI race?
我的意思是，是的，我们有前沿实验室，好吧，也许下一个治愈癌症的药物就是用它们研发出来的，或者其他什么，但大部分价值积累是在公司层面发生的。
I mean, yes, we have the frontier labs and, okay, maybe the next cancer curing drug is developed using that or what have you, but the majority of the value accrual is when it comes from to a company specific basis.
很明显，这些前沿实验室正在互相竞争，直到归零，或者那是最好的情况。
It's very clear these frontier labs are competing each other to zero and or that's at best.
最好的情况也就是他们互相竞争到零。
At best, they're competing each other to zero.
最坏的情况就是他们完全把市场份额和价值让给了开源模型和中国模型。
At worst, they're completely losing market share and value accrual to open open models and Chinese models.
所以不管怎么看，都不太好看。
So it's not pretty like no matter how you slice it, it's just not a good look.
你还记得吗，6月12号还是哪天SpaceX上市的时候，我觉得那是纳斯达克市场的顶部。
And if you remember, June 12 or whatever day SpaceX IPO ed was, I think, the top in the market in in the NASDAQ.
嗯，在这些……
Well, in these
在那之前，然后，你知道，就让它去吧，我想。
Until then and then, you know, let it let it go, I guess.
对。
Yeah.
我的意思是，政治波动也很大。
I mean, the the political volatility is also huge.
这些前沿模型的首席执行官们真是在给自己找麻烦。
Like, these frontier model CEOs are not doing themselves any favors.
他们的公关团队到底在哪儿啊？
Like like, where the where the hell is their PR team?
过去六个月里，他们一直在告诉人们，所有的工作都会被取代。
Like, for the last six months, they've been just telling people that, you know, all jobs are gonna be replaced.
你会变穷。
You're gonna be poor.
你会永远处于社会底层。
You're gonna be the permanent underclass.
一切都会变得一团糟。
You know, everything is gonna be crazy.
如果你不在前沿模型公司工作，基本上你就完了。
If you're not working one of the frontier models, basically, you're you're screwed.
我们会抢走你的工作。
We're gonna take your job.
然后他们却对突然之间，经济底层的大多数人对数据中心感到不满感到惊讶。
And then they act surprised when suddenly, you know, the vast majority of that lower end of the K of the economy is suddenly upset about data centers.
而且他们的论点是不理性的，但他们的反应实际上是非常合乎逻辑的。
And like, their arguments are irrational, but their reaction is actually, you know, quite logical.
你知道，他们被告知他们的工作将会消失，而且他们的后院正在建造那些可怕的大楼。
You know, they're being told that their jobs are going to go away and that there's these big scary buildings being built in their backyards.
所以，这确实令人担忧。
So, you know, it's it's quite concerning.
比如，是的。
Like, I yeah.
我显然，关于用水之类的论点，完全是荒谬的。
I I obviously, the the arguments of, water usage and stuff, like, you they're they're completely ridiculous.
我们都知道这一点，但这并不重要。
We all know that, but it doesn't matter.
这是对前沿模型CEO们，比如达里奥，用他们的歇斯底里所创造的环境的一种政治反应，现在这将会反噬他们，因为，你知道，如果共和党内有些派系，现在有人以反数据中心为竞选纲领参加中期选举。
It's a it's a it's a political reaction to this environment that the frontier model CEOs like Dario created with their hysteria, and now it's gonna come bite them in the ass because, you know, what if, like, there are now parts of the Republican Party that are, you know, people are running into this midterms that are anti data center.
然后会发生什么，好吧。
And then what happens okay.
所以，你最后的堡垒就是K曲线的顶端。
So so your last stronghold is the top end of the K.
你知道，如果你把Anthropic以23万亿美元的估值IPO，然后把它砸到他们头上，他们被套牢了，人们还会那么支持数据中心吗？
You know, are are people gonna be so pro data center if you IPO Anthropic at $23,000,000,000,000 and dump it on their heads and and they get smoked?
那可是你最后的堡垒。
Like, that's your last stronghold.
然后，我不确定这会不会发生。
And then, like, I I don't know if it'll happen.
我的意思是，SpaceX到现在还没回到它IPO时的价格。
I mean, like, you know, SpaceX still hasn't returned to where it IPO ed at.
那烧了好多钱。
That's a lot of burnt money.
我觉得Anthropic也会重蹈覆辙。
I I imagine it would happen again at Anthropic.
我觉得这个护城河根本撑不了多久，他们还想靠一个三十万亿美元的收入预期来炒作这个项目。
Like, the moat is just doesn't seem durable to me, and they're gonna try to rip this thing on on a promise of a $30,000,000,000,000 revenue outlook.
我也不太清楚。
Like, I don't know.
我是说，我真不明白他们为什么要让整个社会都讨厌他们，但他们在这方面做得真是太好了。
I mean, they're I don't know why they're trying to make the whole society hate them, but they're doing a really good job at it.
就是
It's
这就像，也许这就是市场的一部分。
it's like I mean, maybe this is a part of the market.
加密货币投资者如果还记得2021年的泡沫，应该很熟悉这些套路，因为都是一样的。
Crypto investors are well suited if they if they have any, you know, recollection from the bubble in 2021 because it's all the same things.
就是那些承诺，然后不兑现。
It's these promises and not delivering.
就是IPO一上市就暴涨，然后之后表现惨不忍睹，因为所有风投都在套现，再加上那些主角也跟着这么做。
It's these huge pops on the launch of the IPOs and then horrific performance after as all the VCs dump into liquidity And then on top of that, you have the main characters following suit.
达里奥也在做这个，而且……
You have Dario who's doing this and
对，而且他们又都是有效的利他主义者。
like And they're all effective altruists once again.
他们真是最糟糕的代言人了。
And they couldn't be worse spokespeople.
我记得我特别说过，情境意识跟FTX的关联有多奇怪。
I remember specifically saying how weird it is the storyline of situational awareness was to FTX.
当时发生的事，大家都觉得，哇，有一派人在想，天哪，这家伙跟比尔·克林顿那帮人混在一起，他绝对是下一个救世主。
And the things that were happening where everyone's like, Wow, you had one faction that was like, Holy cow, this guy's rolling with Bill Clinton's of the world, and he is absolutely the next coming of Christ.
而世界的另一边，大家觉得，这显然是个巨大的骗局。
And then you have the other side of the world where it's like, This is obviously a huge fraud.
显然会爆雷，这里面肯定有猫腻。
It's obviously going to blow up and there's something really fishy here.
至于情境意识，现在他们正在被SEC调查，因为他老婆是Anthropic的幕僚长，你知道，还有谁能比她知道更多AI交易的内幕消息呢？
And in the case of situational awareness, now they're getting investigated at the SEC because his wife is the Anthropic Chief of Staff and you know, what who who to better have inside information on what's happening in the AI trade.
简直就跟山姆·班克曼-弗里德一模一样。
Like, literally, Sam Bankman freed to a tee.
结果后来发现他确实跟山姆一起在那家基金工作过。
And then it turns out he worked with Sam, like, at that fund.
对，就是这样。
Like, it's Yeah.
他负责风投那块。
He ran the venture.
对。
Yeah.
天哪，这跟加密货币的相似之处太多了，好吧。
Dude, there's so many Dude, it's there's so many mirrors to crypt like, okay.
所以对于那些不了解或者不深入加密货币圈的人来说，2021年之所以那么疯狂，是因为那个“胖L1”理论，就是所有价值都会积累到这些L1区块链上。
So for those that don't know or aren't in the weeds of of the crypto world, like, 2021, the reason it was so ridiculous was this idea of a fat l one thesis where all the value would accrue to these l one blockchains.
然后所有风投都开始推出各种不同的L1区块链，而且都是以十亿美元甚至更高的估值推出，就基于那个所有价值都会归到协议本身的想法。
So then all these VCs started to launch all these different l one blockchains, and they would launch these things at billion dollar like, multiple billion dollar valuations on the idea that all the value would accrue to the to the protocol itself.
不是建立在协议之上的业务，而是，你知道，基础设施，所有的价值都会集中在那里。
Not the not the businesses being built on top of the protocol, but just the, you know, the infrastructure, all the value would accrue there.
如果这听起来很像前沿模型的估值，那是因为它们完全是一回事。
If that sounds a lot like a frontier model valuation, it's because it's the exact same thing.
就像有一种想法，所有的价值都会集中在前沿模型本身，而不是人们用模型去构建的东西上。
Like there's this, like, there's been this idea that all the value would accrue to the frontier, to the models themselves, and not to the things that people use the models to to build upon.
所以2021年发生的事情就是，他们能以荒谬的估值推出所有这些项目。
And so what happened is that 2021, etcetera, like, they were able to launch all these things at absurd valuations.
然后随着人们开始意识到这些L1没有护城河，它们就一路下跌。
And then they're just down only as people started to realize that, like, there's no moat for these L1s.
它们被商品化了。
They got commoditized.
你知道，这些L1上的费用收入都被商品化到零了。
You know, fees fee generation on these L1s all got commoditized down to zero.
对我来说，这感觉就像AI领域的重演，他们会以荒谬的估值公开推出所有这些前沿模型，然后我们都会意识到，大部分价值会集中在人们实际做的事情上。
And it just it to me, it feels like a repeat with AI, where it's like they're gonna launch all these frontier models publicly at these absurd valuations, and then we're all gonna realize that so much of the value is gonna accrue to what people do.
或者说，你知道，后来加密货币这边又出现了应用链理论，或者说是建立在区块链上的应用。
Or, you know, like you know, then came this idea for for cryptos about this, like, app chain thesis or, like, applications that are built on.
所以，这就是为什么你能看到Hyperliquid或者PumpFund真的在赚钱。
So, like, that's why, you know, you see Hyperliquid or PumpFund actually generate revenue.
你知道，它们是盈利的业务，非常赚钱，而且它们是建立在它们所利用的区块链之上的。
You know, they're they're profitable businesses, wildly profitable, and they're built on top of the blockchains that are that are that they're leveraging.
在我看来，AI这边也会产生同样的价值，关键就在于人们用它来构建什么。
To me, I think that's gonna be the same value generation here with AI is what are the things people are building upon it?
你知道，也许人们使用的工具，如果你把工作流程建立起来，那里会有很多粘性，能成就一些很酷的业务。
You know, maybe the harness that people use, like, there's gonna be a lot stickiness there if you build out your workflows to some cool businesses there.
但是，是的，感觉现在的估值方面完全是颠倒的。
But, yeah, it feels like the valuation side of things is just completely upside down right now.
对。
Yeah.
这让我想起了五年前的加密货币，简直一模一样。
Reminds me to a tee of of of crypto five years ago.
你这样一说，真的太像了，吓人。
It's so scary how similar it is, man, when you lay it out like that.
说实话，我脑子都炸了，剧情居然一模一样。
I actually like my mind is blown how the storylines are the same.
割散户韭菜也是一样的。
Dumping on retail is the same.
不过最大的区别是，AI被政府大力扶持。
The the like I mean, the biggest difference, though, is AI is like the government's pumped it so much.
它简直成了我们经济的唯一驱动力。
It's like the sole driver of our economy.
而且现在他们手里攥着一个系统性、环环相扣、循环融资的大烂摊子。
And they're now have this like totally systemic, interlinked, circular financed, like huge mess on the other side of this in their hands.
而加密货币当时只是个边缘话题，大多数人没持有，也不关心，甚至觉得那就是个骗局。
Whereas crypto was a side thought, most people didn't own it, most people didn't care, they already thought it was a scam.
而AI现在牵扯到全球经济、政府干预，规模和程度都大得离谱。
Like this is like intertwined global economies, government intervention, like to a crazy magnitude and scale.
所以，是的。
So yeah.
希望如此，是的。
Hopefully, Yeah.
想想2021年加密货币的结局，你知道的，到目前为止，故事的每一个部分都在重演，如果你经历过那一次，那真是一场灾难。
Think The ending of that 2021 crypto, you know, every part of the story is playing out so far well, and if you lived through that, that was a disaster.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得这次的不同之处在于，一旦出现问题的苗头，他们就会出手救助。
I think the difference this time is that they will bail this out at the first hint of it going wrong.
但我的意思是，整个问题的关键在于，最终还是要做出一个决定。
But I mean, this is the whole thing is that there's a a decision does have to be made eventually.
比如，你是保护前沿模型的利润空间，还是确保西方国家的采用率持续增长以击败中国？
Like, do you protect the margin of the frontier models, or do you ensure that adoption keeps increasing in Western countries to beat out China?
我觉得越来越明显的是，你不可能两者兼得。
I think it's becoming increasingly clear that you can't really have both.
你不能在尖端模型的使用上收取离谱的高价，还想主导市场，因为大家都会去用那些开源模型，毕竟，你知道，花一小部分成本就能得到80%的智能，那我肯定选那个啊。
You can't be charging absurd margins on frontier model usage and dominate adoption because people will just go to these open weight models because they're like, you know, I can get 80% of the intelligence at a fraction of the cost, like obviously I'm going do that.
而且你知道，如果你用的是本地运行的模型，那就不一样了，对，那是你自己的模型。
And you know, you can, if you're using one of these models that you run locally, like you don't Yeah, it's your own model.
然后你还可以根据自己业务的需求，用特定方式对它进行后期训练。
And then you can like post train it in certain ways that are relevant to your business.
就像我们现在感觉他们好像想方方面面都赢，但我觉得那不现实。
Like we Right now it feels like they just want to be able to win in every way, but I don't think that's realistic.
总得有所取舍。
Like something has to give.
嗯，回到你之前说的，这次政府会出手救助。
Well, going back to what you said, this time the government will bail out.
但如果民主党赢了众议院，甚至参议院，而救助需要国会批准，那会怎么样？
Well, what happens though if Dems win the House and maybe the Senate and a bailout requires congressional approval?
所以，我的意思是，银行系统上，你需要银行来买车、买房、给企业贷款。
So, I mean, the banks, systemically, you need a bank to buy a car, to buy a house, to get a loan for a business.
这正好相反。
This is sort of opposite.
如果你对AI犹豫不决，你会想，我该投票拯救这个让我的选民失业的东西吗？
You're if you're on the fence about AI, it's like, do I vote to save this thing that puts my constituency out of work?
有AI界的代表人物Dario站出来说，救救我们，帮帮我们，把我们国有化吧，因为我们会创造一个反乌托邦，让所有人都失业。
You have the AI guy, Dario, the face of it saying, Bail us out, save us, nationalize us because we're going to create a dystopia and lay everybody off.
对，你可以相信我们。
Yeah, you can trust us.
是的。
Yeah.
或者你看到那些被民粹主义者选上来的人说，你知道吗？
Or do you have these people elected by populists say, You know what?
不。
No.
你们在史上最大的三次IPO中攫取了数万亿美元的财富，把股票抛售给散户，让富人更富。
You guys siphoned trillions in wealth in three of the largest IPOs of all time, dumped on retail heads, huge The wealthy got wealthier.
不。
No.
这个局面就是……我觉得中期选举之前，会有大规模的干预，把所有流动性问题都掩盖过去。
This setup is just There's way more I think the midterms, so you have this huge intervention, so that smoothing over all the liquidity cracks going into the midterms.
所以大家会觉得，哦，股市在高位。
So people are like, Oh, stocks are at highs.
没事。
It's fine.
但实际上，表面之下，你会想，天哪，他们连战略石油储备都抽干了，海峡还是……
Meanwhile, under the hood, you're like, Oh my God, like they've drained the SPR and the strait's still
关闭的。
closed.
那个……
The
AI交易到处都在崩，中国现在领先了，这些问题非常严重。
AI trade is cracking left and right, and China is now out ahead, and these problems are massive.
而且我觉得，因为大家都知道他们会失去众议院，特朗普的支持率跌到谷底，参议院又是个五五开的局面，所以结果其实没什么悬念，对吧？
And I think because everyone knows that they're going to lose the House, Trump's approval's in the gutter, and the Senate's kind of a toss-up, So there's not like a lot of uncertainty in terms of the outcome, right?
这不像2024年特朗普对哈里斯的时候，大家都在猜谁会赢。
It's not like Trump versus Harris going into 'twenty four, where everyone's like, Who's going to win?
会是什么结果呢？
What's it going to be?
我觉得这里的结果你基本能猜到。
I think you kind of know the outcome here.
但大家可能没充分意识到的是，这背后藏着什么。
But what people aren't probably appreciating enough is like, what sits on the other side?
这背后到底有什么？
What sits on the other side of that?
是债务上限危机，AI危机。
It's a debt ceiling crisis, an AI crisis.
就像完全没有协议一样。
Like no agreement.
我们已经看到民主党和共和党没法合作。
We've seen the Dems and Republicans can't work together.
我不知道，老兄。
I don't know, man.
对。
Yeah.
就是僵局。
Just gridlock.
对。
Yeah.
这局面挺奇怪的。
It's a weird state of affairs.
我是说，你，对。
I mean, you yeah.
唯一的动作就只能落在行政部门或者美联储那边了。
The only action is just gonna go to either the executive branch or the Fed.
比如说，美联储可以直接买AI公司的企业债券。
Like, I mean, the Fed could just buy buy AI corporate bonds.
我是说，他们在2020年就买过企业债券。
I mean, they bought they bought corporate bonds in 2020.
就像，你知道的，或者他就像，你懂吗？
Like, you know, or he's just like, you know?
对。
Yeah.
我们正在买，我们正在买甲骨文的债券。
We're we're buying we're buying, Oracle bonds.
就像，我也不确定。
Like, I don't know.
这绝对不是零概率。
It's it's definitely not a 0%.
天哪。
Oh my god.
他可能会抢先一步操作。
He would probably be front running it.
说实话，他是个狠角色。
Honestly, he's a killer.
他很可能持有他们正在购买的债券。
He's he's probably he probably owns the bonds that they're buying.
对。
Yeah.
没错。
True.
没错。
True.
没错。
True.
我是说
I mean
我不知道。
I don't know.
我的意思是，这也不是完全不可能。
I mean, it's it's not a 0% odds.
我是说，他们早就干过这事了。
I mean, they did it already.
就像，对，我们……
Like, we Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我们只是忘了，因为每次危机之间都隔了大概五年。
We just forget about it because every time in between these crises is, like, five years.
所以大家都忘了这些事会发生。
So everyone's, like, forgets that these things happen.
对。
Yeah.
但你要是把时间线拉长看，就会觉得，哇，2002年他们刺激了500亿美元，天哪，2008年刺激了几千亿，天哪，2020年直接砸了4万亿美元。然后你就会想，哇，这些数字现在都大了一个数量级。
But when you zoom out, you're like, Oh, in 2002, they stimulated like $50,000,000,000 Oh my God, in 2008, they stimulated like a couple $100,000,000,000 Oh my God, in 2020, they stimulated $4,000,000,000,000 And then you're like, Wow, the numbers are all orders of magnitude bigger now.
那接下来会是什么样子呢？
Like, what's that going to look like?
这就是为什么货币贬值交易会奏效，因为
I mean, that's why the debasement trade is going to work because
最终
the
结果就是通胀，法币归零。
end state is inflation and fiat going to zero.
对。
Yeah.
而且债券市场的那些把戏也不是什么新鲜事。
And even the games with the bond market are not new.
比如，二十年期国债在2000年代初被暂停发行，直到2020年才重新推出。
Like, you know, the twenty year bond they suspended in early 2000s and then only brought it back in 2020.
他们就是停止发行20年期国债了。
Like, they just stopped issuing 20s.
我觉得30年期国债也是这么干的。
I think they did the same thing with the thirties.
以前有一段时间，他们就是停止发行30年期国债了。
There's a there's a time period back then where they just stopped issuing thirty year bonds.
没有理由说他们不能再来一次。
No reason why they can't repeat.
我记得是2003年。
I think it was 2003.
他增加了回购。
He increased buybacks.
对。
Yeah.
这就像个循环，兄弟。
It's it's it's just a circle, man.
基本上从长期资本管理公司救助以来，就一直是这样单向的踢皮球。
It's it's it's been the same one way direction of can kicking basically since long term capital bailout.
对。
Like Yeah.
就是一条单行道。
It's just been a one way track.
对。
Yeah.
从那时到2011年的黄金牛市简直是个怪物，而且远不止现在这个程度，比现在大得多得多。
The gold bull market from then until 2011 was an absolute monster and also nowhere near to way, way bigger than where where we're at right now.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
问题是，你什么时候开始从黄金转向其他金属，去追那些真正会暴涨的东西？
The question is when do you start rotating into the beta metals outside of gold and going for the stuff that's really gonna fly?
比如说，什么时候才是对的时机呢？
Like, what's the time to Yeah.
我们还没那么做。
Do haven't done that.
白银的暴涨。
The silver blowup.
它肯定会回来的。
Like, surely it's gonna come back.
对。
Right.
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是
I mean
好的。
Okay.
对。
Yeah.
白银现在是67美元。
Silver's at $67.
对。
Yeah.
它涨到了1.20美元。
It got up to $1.20.
二月份那真是疯狂。
That was insane in February.
我不知道。
I don't know.
如果再来一次，我也不会惊讶。
I wouldn't be surprised if it happens again.
对。
Yeah.
你看这个时机，就像……
You see the timing like.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得会。
I think it will.
我觉得这有点像加密货币，对吧？
I think it's it's kind of like in crypto, right?
而且，你知道，这就像一种条件反射。
And like, you know, It's like a reflex.
就像，好吧，黄金在猛涨。
It's like, Okay, gold's ripping.
市场条件很宽松。
Conditions are loose.
然后那些投机者，也许那些投机者还没有完全从他们的AI里撤走。
And then the speculators Maybe the speculators aren't fully gone from their AI yet.
他们很快就会撤走的，对吧？
They will be soon, right?
Anthropic一旦上市，就会成为下一个重磅炸弹。
Anthropic is going send It's gonna be like the next dagger once that IPOs.
所以到时候会有两万亿美元市值的公司解锁他们的股份。
So then you have $2,000,000,000,000 companies unlocking their shares.
所以到那时，AI交易里的热钱可能真的会彻底离开。
So then everyone, the hot money in the AI trade is probably really gonna leave for good after that.
那他们会去哪里呢？
And then where do they go?
你会去地下室。
You go to the basement.
加密货币。
Crypto.
正好赶上下一轮周期。
Just in time for the next cycle.
对。
Yeah.
对，没错。
Yeah, exactly.
傅里叶理论又应验了。
Fourier theory strikes again.
对。
Yeah.
我再也不会说那个周期的坏话了。
I'm I'm never talking shit about that cycle ever again.
我认输了，我服了。
I I I ate my humble pie.
对。
Yeah.
我们之前还在吐槽它，结果突然就来了。
We were bashing it, and then boom.
事情就是这样发生的。
It happens like
哦，对。
Oh, yeah.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
认栽了。
Taking that l.
没关系。
That's okay.
我的意思是，虽然还是在底部附近待了很久，但出来的时候还算及时。你知道，显然不可能精准踩到最高点和最低点，但你就是尽量吃到行情中间那段最肥的部分。
I mean, still still long near the bottom and got out fairly, you know, obviously impossible to time it on the top and the bottom, but you just try to ride the the meat of the move.
所以，你知道，长期持有，坚定信心，顺势而为。
So, you know, long and strong and riding the wave here.
交易机会很多。
There's a lot of trades.
总有新的机会出现。
Always up new opportunities.
对。
Yep.
好的。
Alright.
好吧，我觉得我们可以聊到这里了。
Well, I think we can leave it there.
是的。
Yeah.
每次讨论都很有收获，一如既往。
Always always a good discussion as ever.
我们看看这一切会怎么发展，但货币贬值又像往常一样回来了。
We'll see where this all pans out, but debasement's back on as usual.
是的，兄弟。
Yeah, brother.
我可能，哦，哦，哦，下周可能不行。
I might might be oh, oh, oh, next week.
所以听众们可能要等到劳动节之后才能听到我们的下一期节目。
So listeners might have to wait till post Labor Day for our next rendition.
对。
Yeah.
去外面走走，接触一下大自然吧。
Go touch some grass.
是的，劳动节之后我们都会全力以赴。
It's, yeah, we'll all lock in after Labor Day.
这就是计划。
That's the plan.
我很喜欢。
I love it.
不错。
Good stuff.
好的。
All right.
祝你一周愉快。
You have a good week.
祝你一周愉快。
Have a good week.
再见。
See you.
前瞻指引中的任何内容都不构成买卖任何投资或产品的建议。
Nothing said on forward guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products.
本播客仅供参考，节目中任何人的观点仅代表其个人意见，不构成财务建议，也不一定代表Blockworks的观点。
This podcast is for informational purposes only, and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice, or necessarily the views of Blockworks.
我们的主持人、嘉宾以及Blockworks团队成员可能持有所讨论的公司基金或项目的头寸。
Our hosts, guests, and the Blockworks team may hold positions in the company's funds or projects discussed.
一如既往，投资区块链技术涉及风险，需遵守相关条款和条件。
As always, investments in blockchain technology involve risk, terms, conditions apply.
请自行研究。
Do your own research.
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