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所以，是的，三个泡沫：股市泡沫，我认为这是无可否认的，还有悲观情绪泡沫，以及最后的名义增长泡沫。
So, yes, three bubbles, stock market bubble, I think it's undeniable, the pessimism bubble, and finally, a nominal growth bubble.
这些是我们历史上每次重大革命之前都观察到的状况。
These are conditions that we observed before every major revolution in history.
快速的技术变革、名义增长的加速，以及同时感受到事物正在瓦解。
Rapid technological change, acceleration of nominal growth, and at the same time a sense that things are unraveling.
这意味着当前的状况让我想起了1999年末到2000年初，我们可能会经历这种通胀加速，这让我相当
Mean the current conditions kind of remind me of late nineteen ninety nine early two thousand, so we could have this kind of inflationary acceleration, which makes me quite
在我们开始之前，快速提醒一下，Blockworks的顶级机构会议——数字资产峰会，今年三月将重返纽约市。
Before we get started, a quick reminder that Blockworks' premier institutional conference, the Digital Asset Summit, is returning to New York City this March.
今年将有超过4.2万亿美元的资产管理规模，150位演讲者和750家机构参与。
This year represents more than $4,200,000,000,000 in assets under management with a 150 speakers and 750 institutions attending.
演讲者包括SEC主席保罗·阿特金斯、CFTC主席迈克尔·塞利格、美联储理事斯蒂芬·莫兰，以及Tether首席执行官保罗·阿多尼奥，还有无数其他高管、资产管理人、监管者和塑造行业的核心加密基础设施建设者。
Speakers include SEC chair Paul Atkins, CFTC chair Michael Selig, Fed governor Stephen Moran, and Tether CEO Paolo Ardonio, alongside countless other executives, asset managers, regulators, and the core crypto infrastructure builders shaping the industry.
如果你想了解2026年数字资产的严肃机构级观点，数字资产峰会就是发生这一切的地方。
If you want serious institutional grade view of digital assets in 2026, digital asset summit is where it happens.
使用代码 forward 200 可享受 200 美元优惠，详情请访问 blockworks.co/events。
Use code forward 200 for 200 off and head to blockworks.co/events for more details.
本集由 Grayscale 赞助，它是您通往 30 多种加密投资产品的可靠门户。
This episode is brought to you by Grayscale, your trusted gateway to more than 30 different crypto investment products.
你将在本集后面听到更多关于它们的内容。
You'll hear more about them later in the episode.
节目中任何陈述均不构成购买或出售任何投资或产品的建议。
Nothing said on for guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products.
本播客仅用于信息目的，节目中任何人的观点均为其个人意见，而非财务建议，也不一定代表 Blockworks 的观点。
This podcast is for informational purposes only, and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice, or necessarily the views of Blockworks.
我们的主持人、嘉宾和 Blockworks 团队可能持有节目中讨论的公司基金或项目头寸。
Our hosts, guests, and the Blockworks team may hold positions in the company's funds or projects discussed.
一如既往，投资区块链技术存在风险，条款和条件适用。
As always, investments in blockchain technology involve risk, terms, conditions apply.
请自行进行研究。
Do your own research.
好了，各位。
Alright, everybody.
欢迎回到《Forward Guidance》的又一期节目。
Welcome back to another episode of Forward Guidance.
本周和我一起的嘉宾是常客，Stonex全球宏观部门主管文森特·德洛阿尔。
And joining me this week is repeat guest, Vincent Deloard, director of global macro at Stonex.
文森特，自从我们上次对话已经过去大约十个月了。
Vincent, it's been about ten months since our last conversation.
很高兴你再次回来。
Good to have you back on.
是的，没什么大事发生。
Yeah, not much has happened.
所以，我想这期节目会很简短。
So, you know, I'm sure it's be a brief episode here.
对。
Yeah.
没什么可谈的。
Nothing to talk about.
至少没什么疯狂的事。
No craziness to say the least.
没有。
No.
是的，完全相反。
Yeah, the complete opposite.
是的，这十个月真不容易。
Yeah, what a ten months.
疯狂的时光啊。
Crazy, crazy times.
你，嗯，我们先开始吧。
You, yeah, let's start off things.
我很想听听你对2026年的看法，因为我觉得你有一些与众不同的观点，尤其是当我们回溯到去年秋天，也就是十月、十一月，当时政府停摆正在发生。
I would love to hear a bit about how you're thinking about 2026, because I think you have some out of consensus views, especially in light of, you know, if we rewind to late fall, you know, October, November, the government shutdown was happening.
我们当时看到劳动市场传出一些相当可疑的新闻和数据。
We were seeing some pretty sketchy headlines and numbers coming out of the labour market.
似乎很多人都在讨论即将出现衰退，或者至少会出现增长放缓。
And it seems like a lot of people were talking a bit about either near recession or at least at the very least a growth slowdown.
你当时发布了一些研究，提到你最有信心的交易之一是围绕能源领域。
You came out with some work back then talking a bit about how one of your highest conviction trades was around the energy complex.
我想我们稍后会深入探讨这一点，但与之相关的一个重要主题是，你认为2026年初会出现一波增长加速，最终可能演变为第二轮大规模通胀。
And I think that can, we'll get into that in a minute, but I think one of the big themes that's associated with that is you have this framing of an initial growth free acceleration in early twenty twenty six that could end up becoming a second big inflationary wave.
所以，是的，详细说说你是怎么看待2026年的吧。
So yeah, just walk us through the thesis of how you're thinking about 2026.
是的。
Yeah.
我之前说过去十个月没什么变化，其实也不完全是开玩笑。
I was only partially joking when I said not much has changed since ten months ago.
我的意思是，每次参加节目，我都还在跟同样的风车作战，就像堂吉诃德和塞万提斯电影里那样。
I mean, I feel like every episode I go to, I'm still fighting the same windmills, you know, like Don Quixote and the Cervantes movie.
所以，这些风车就像是那些不断重现的想象中的衰退，就像《惊声尖叫》电影的重播一样。
So the the windmills are are these imaginary recessions that seem to come back like like reruns of the Scream movie.
每次我对此表示怀疑时，我大体上仍坚持我的‘大重置’观点，即我们将面临更高的增长、更高的利率、更高的生产率、更高的通胀以及更大的赤字，除非有证据表明并非如此，否则这类增长恐慌都应被淡化。
And every time I tend to be skeptical on it, I generally maintain my kind of great reset idea that we have this higher growth, higher rate, higher productivity, higher inflation, higher deficits and that until proven otherwise, these kind of growth scares are to be faded.
我现在主要通过官方数据来验证这一点，我确信我们在机构调查或家庭调查方面一直存在结构性问题。
The main way I check that is now with official data, I'm convinced that we have we've always had structural issues with the establishment survey or the household survey.
现在我们甚至无法获取数据，或者即便获取了数据，如果数据不能让超级计量器满意，数据收集者就会被解雇。
Now we not even able to get the data or if we do get the data and the data doesn't please the super meter, the data collectors get fired.
所以我认为，关注那些真正反映现实的数据——比如税收收入——是非常重要的。
So I think it's quite important to look at things that actually tell the reality which is tax collections.
这也是我预测2022年、2023年、2024年、2005年以及现在的2026年都不会出现经济衰退的原因之一，因为我看到税收收入普遍增长了5%到10%。
And that's that's one of the reason for my calls that we would not have a recession in 2022, in 2023, in 2024, 2005, and now 2026 because I could see tax collections where generally increasing between 510%.
去年，我们的增长率大约在8%左右。
For last year, we were at about 8%.
当然，你可以说这其中存在一些分配问题。
Now you can argue that there are some distributional issue.
可能会有一些通货膨胀。
There may be some inflation.
可能会有一些税级攀升之类的，但你知道，名义增长仍然非常强劲。
There may be some bracket creep, yada yada, but, you know, it's still extremely strong nominal growth.
因此，我对2026年的展望保持不变，唯一多出的一点担忧是，这种增长可能变得过热。
So I go into '20 into 2026 with the same outlook with maybe one added worry is that this growth story might even get too hot.
我认为人们没有意识到美国经济在名义层面增长得有多快。
I don't think people realize how quickly The US economy is growing in nominal terms.
我并不一定认同我们经历了一场非凡的生产率跃升的观点。
I'm not necessarily, you know, buying the view that we had this amazing productivity boom.
我的看法是，名义收入正在迅速增长。
Mean, I can see now is nominal incomes are growing very rapidly.
今年到目前为止，个人所得税的税收收入已增长了10%以上。
Tax collections so far this year I have by more than 10% on personal income.
从现在开始，我们将收到巨额退税支票。
And starting now, we're gonna get massive refund checks.
所以这项宏伟的法案是追溯生效的。
So the one big beautiful bill is retroactive.
因此，人们在2025年多缴了税。
So people overpay their taxes in 2025.
在未来四周内，我们将收到大约2000亿美元的税改退税款。
So in the next four weeks, we're going to get about $200,000,000,000 in tax reform checks that are going to hit.
而大多数学术研究显示，这就像你中了彩票一样，对吧？
And then most academic studies show that it's kind of like, you know, you win the lottery, right?
当你获得一笔意外之财时，你会立刻花掉它。
When you have a windfall gain, you just spend it right away.
这是刺激措施的第一部分。
So that's the first part of the stimulus.
然后，在那之后，是的，我相信政府面临着一个非常棘手的政治难题。
And then after that, I'm, yeah, I'm a believer that we have a very difficult political equation for the administration.
最近我们出现了很多问题，不仅让政府，也让很多人显得很糟糕。
We have a lot of, you know, things coming up lately that make not just the administration, but a lot of people look pretty bad.
我们迫切需要一些东西来转移注意力。
And we badly needed something to distract.
所以，这件事可能是一场战争，而战争非常昂贵。
So that something could be a war, which is quite expensive.
但我也会认为，发支票也是个办法。
But I would also think that something would be checks.
意思是，显然，应对这四十天危机最简单的办法就是，我们不会去解决医疗保健体系的问题。
Mean, obviously, that's the simplest solution to the forty day crisis is, you know, we're not going to fix the health care system.
我们不会去调整政府支出。
We're not going to get government spending.
给人们发支票是最简单的方式。
Send people checks is the easiest way.
而且，由于税收收入的激增，财政上的繁荣程度远超人们的想象。
And again, because of that boom in tax collection, there's a lot more fiscal boom than people believe there is.
我的意思是，这并不是出于财政自律。
I mean, it's not for fiscal virtue.
显然，支出非常高，但由于税收收入强劲，关税每月带来3000亿美元，且名义GDP正在飙升，我们实际上在2020年拥有进行大规模刺激的财政空间。
Obviously, spending is very high, but because tax collections are so strong and tariffs bring about $300,000,000,000 a month and nominal GDP is exploding, we actually have fiscal room for significant stimulus in 2020
这真是一个很好的概述。
That's a great overview.
而且，是的，关于中期选举前的地缘政治和政治博弈，我们会在对话的后半部分深入探讨。
And yeah, the geopolitical and political games leading into the midterms, we'll get into in the second half of the conversation.
但我想谈谈你提到的税收收入问题，我真的很想进一步强调并深入分析这一点，因为你提到，根据财政部每日发布的国库报告，今年一月的税收收入同比上升了24%。
But I do want to you mentioned there about tax collections and I really want to just emphasize that and unpack that further because you wrote that actually tax collections, which is direct data from the daily treasury statement that the treasury publishes, is up 24% in January year over year.
我真的很希望你能向听众解释清楚，为什么你如此坚信这一指标。
And I would just love for you to to really explain to the audience why this is the indicator that you believe so strongly in.
因为我认为，那些收听这些宏观播客并试图自己分析数据的人，很快就会被各种信息搞得不知所措——比如，ISM数据这么说，季节性调整后的劳动力数据又那么说，而非季节性调整的数据则说另一回事。
Because I think people that will listen to these macro podcasts and start to try to analyze the data themselves, they will quickly get overwhelmed by looking at, okay, ISMs are saying this thing and then the seasonally adjusted labor data saying this thing and then the non seasonally adjusted data saying this other thing.
他们因此被各种数据反复拉扯，感到非常困惑。
And they just get very whipsawed around and confused.
更糟糕的是，我们现在甚至有时根本收不到数据。
It doesn't help that now we don't even get the data sometimes in general.
所以我只是很好奇，您能否结合这个背景，重点解释一下为什么税收数据作为指标如此有力？
So I'm just curious, could you really emphasize and explain why tax collections as a metric is so powerful with that context?
从个人角度来说，我原本是打算去法国财政部工作的，正是在那里，我对税收产生了兴趣，因为那正是法国财政部的职责所在。
I mean, on a personal level, I I was meant to work for the French Ministry of Finance and I that's that's where my fascination with taxes came because that's that's what the French Ministry of Finance does.
那是一个税收负担很重的群体。
It's a heavy taxes population.
那就是你的工作。
That's your job.
我一直认为，税收收入是最能自然反映经济活动的指标。
And I always thought, like, okay, if you you know, that that tax collection are the most natural measure of economic activity.
尤其是那些从工资中代扣的个人所得税。
I mean, especially that withheld in employment income tax.
对于非美国人来说，可能不太了解。
And I mean, for those who are not Americans.
比如，我每两周从Sonix领一次工资，其中有大约25%的薪水根本不会进入我的银行账户，而是直接由Sonix上缴给财政部。
So when I get paid from from Sonix every two weeks, there's about 25% of my paycheck that doesn't even go to my bank account and go straight from from Sonix to the Treasury.
而这笔钱基本上是用来缴税的。
And that's to pay basically my taxes.
到了4月15日，我们再做一次调整。
And then when April 15 come, we kind of adjust.
但这个数字，假设税法没有变化，是衡量经济中总收入的绝佳指标。
But that number, assuming there is no change in the tax code, is an excellent proxy for how much income there is in the economy.
而且它是每日更新的。
And it's reported daily.
当然，你也会遇到各种特殊情况，对吧？
And of course, you have all sorts of quirks, right?
人们通常在每月1号和15号领工资。
People get paid around the first and the fifteenth.
通常是周一、周五，或者6号这样的日子。
It's Monday, Friday, '6 and things like that.
所以你在分析这些数据时，需要谨慎选择时间范围。
So you kind of need to be careful with the date range when you look at this data.
因此，一月份那20%的数字，我认为可能偏高了。
And that's why that that 20% figure in January, I mean, it's probably excessive.
我的意思是，现在有了更多数据，实际大约在13%左右，但依然很惊人。
I mean, now that I have more data is is more around like 13%, but it's still remarkable.
所以这是其中一个类别。
So that's one bucket.
当我思考这个问题时，我会把它看作是代表那些在大公司有正式工作、享有福利和401(k)等福利的人群的proxy。
And when I think about it, I think about that without data as as a proxy for the call that the formal economy people who have a job at a big corporation with, you know, benefits and four zero k and so forth.
这部分情况良好。
And that's going fine.
我的意思是，实际上发展得非常迅速。
I mean, actually very rapidly.
更有趣的是这个非个体收入类别，每年的税收大约为1.2万亿美元。
Now the part that's even more interesting is this non without individual income category, which is around 1,200,000,000,000.0 a year in taxes.
而这基本上可以分为两个部分。
And that's basically two buckets.
一个是资本利得。
One is capital gains.
当然，因为我们处于全面泡沫之中，资本利得规模巨大，而且每年都在不断增加。
And of course, because we have an everything bubble, we have massive capital gains and every year more and more.
这构成了2026年故事的一部分。
And that's part of the story for 2026.
顺便说一句，人们会延迟缴纳资本利得税，因此财政部将收回大量资金——在我看来，这些资金本可以用于更多支出。
By the way, people will pay the capital gains in arrears so that the treasury will get back a lot of money that in my opinion could fund more spending.
然后，在这1.2万亿美元中，另一部分约为1万亿美元。
And then the other part is around 1,000,000,000,000 from that 1,200,000,000,000.0 bucket.
这些收入既不是来自资本利得，也不是来自主业，我认为这是零工经济的代表。
And that's all income that you does not come from capital gains or your primary job and that's what I see as a proxy for the gig economy.
对我来说，这几乎是自2007年iPhone问世以来，美国资本主义最被忽视的伟大故事。
And that's really to me it's the greatest story never told of American capitalism pretty much since the invention of the iPhone in 2007.
随后，各种应用蓬勃发展，比如优步、DoorDash、YouTube、OnlyFans和Instagram。
And then you had all the development of the apps, you know, the Uber, the DoorDash, the YouTube, the OnlyFans, the Instagram.
这开始迅速增长。
That started to grow very rapidly.
然后发生了新冠疫情，人们居家办公，突然意识到，比如你在一家大公司的市场部门工作，是的，你每天可能有几小时可以投入到主业之外的事情上。
Then you had COVID when people work from home and suddenly realize, you know, if you work at the marketing department of a large firm like, yeah, you probably have a couple of hours a day that you could dedicate to something else in your primary job.
所以，你有技术、有动力，还有生活成本冲击。
So you have the technology, you have the incentives, you have the cost of living shock.
因此，自2020年以来，这一现象真正爆发了。
So that really took off since 2020.
现在我们看到，这一类别带来的税收接近一万亿美元。
And now we're looking at close to a trillion dollar in tax collection from that category.
假设税率为20%，这意味着其 underlying 税基约为5万亿美元，并且每年以10%的速度增长。
Now assume a 20% tax rate, that means that the underlying tax base is around $5,000,000,000,000 and that's growing by 10% a year.
这基本上相当于两个巴西经济体，以类似中国的增速在扩张。
So that's basically twice the economy of Brazil growing at China like rates of growth.
我认为，所有这些官方统计数据都忽略了这一类别，我的意思是，PMI是什么？
And I think that's the category that all these official statistics, you know, if you I mean, what's the PMI?
你知道吗，你听起来像五十个人在说话。
You know, you sound like 50 people.
那你今天感觉怎么样？
Like, how do you feel today?
你知道吗？
Well, you know what?
他们会根据股价告诉你人们的感受如何。
They'll tell you how do they feel sentiment based on the stock price.
好吧。
Okay.
你试图预测股价，或者当你做家庭调查时，你会打电话联系人们。
And you try to predict the stock price of the stock price basically or, you know, when you do the the household survey, you know, you try to reach people on the phone.
现在没人接电话了，你问他们：你家里有人在工作吗？
No one picks up the phone these days and you ask them, is somebody in your household working?
工作是什么？
What's work?
这些事情为什么会变得模糊不清？
What's all these things that become blurry?
所以这就是原因。
So that's why.
而且还有一个问题，我想我们稍后会谈到这种奇怪的悲观情绪泡沫，一种氛围：人们实际上过得不错，但由于完全不同的原因，他们报告的幸福感或情绪却低得多。
And also there is the issue that I think we're going to talk later about this weird kind of pessimism bubble, this vibe session where people are actually doing good, but for a whole different set of reasons, their reported happiness or their reported sentiment is much lower.
所有这些问题都通过税收征管得到了解决。
All these issues are taken care of with tax collections.
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是，没人会心甘情愿地缴税。
I mean, no one happily pays taxes.
收入必须是真实的。
It has to be real income.
是现金。
It's cash.
这是实时的。
It's in real time.
你只需要留意数据中的异常和税率的变化。
You just have to be aware of quirks in the data and changes in tax rates.
但一旦你做到了这一点，我认为你就拥有了一个绝佳的经济晴雨表。
But once you do that, I think you have a fantastic barometer of the economy.
而且，这又让我回想起一个观点：美国正在逐渐回归到一种新兴市场的模式。
And again, this is something that, you know, it it kind of brings me back to this idea that the The US is kind of moving back towards a kind of emerging market.
比如，如果你去一个发展水平较低的经济体，你就会用这种方式来衡量经济。
Like, if you if you went to, like, a a less advanced economy, that's what you would use as an economy.
所以，考虑到美国当前发生的一切，把美国视为一个大型新兴市场是合乎逻辑的。
So I think it kind of makes sense given everything that's happening in The US to think of The US as as a large emerging market.
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是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
这说得通。
That makes sense.
我也非常认同这个指标。
I'm a I'm a big fan of that metric as well.
是的，确实是这样。
It's it's yeah.
这可以说是最硬性的数据了，真的，就是资金的流入和流出。
It's it's as hard data as it gets, really, you know, just money in, money out.
好的。
Okay.
所以根据它所显示的信息，似乎经济比许多悲观人士所说的要好得多。
So based on what it's saying, it seems like the economy is doing a lot better than what a lot of pessimists are saying.
我很想知道，你如何看待其他可能推动第二波增长的驱动力。
And I'm curious about how you're thinking about the other growth levers that could lead to this second wave.
我猜其中之一，正如你迄今为止所暗示的，是财政刺激。
I imagine one of them, as you've hinted at so far, is the fiscal impulse.
我们可以从这里开始。
And we could start there.
我只是好奇，似乎大多数分析师在评估这项宏伟法案的影响时，都认为大部分利好因素将在2026年显现。
I'm just curious about, it seems like most analysts, when they look at the impact from the big beautiful bill, can see most of the tailwinds are coming in the 2026.
他们的观点是，这些影响大部分已经被计入，广为人知。
And their opinion is that most of that is already baked in and well known.
你只需要，你知道的，一些退税之类的事情。
You'll just need to, you know, some tax refunds and that sort of thing.
你认为这些财政刺激会来自这方面吗？
Do you see some of the the fiscal impulse coming from that?
还是你相信，在中期选举前，还会有额外的财政刺激叠加在上面，这也是他们策略的一部分？
Or do you believe that there's going be an additional fiscal stimulus coming on top of that for 2026 in the lead up to the midterms and that's part of their player.
是的，两者都有。
Yeah, both.
是的，我认为大多数银行对税收改革的估算，和我六个月前的预测差不多，大约有2000亿美元的额外退税。
Yeah, I think most banks have come up with estimates for the tax reforms that are close to what I had six months ago, about, you know, 200,000,000,000 in in additional tax refunds.
我的意思是，这笔钱数额巨大。
I mean, he's huge.
我的意思是，几周后就会到账。
I mean, is going to hit in a couple weeks.
所以即使我们早就知道，就像火车即将撞上来一样。
So even though we know about it, know, it's like, you know, you know, the train is going to hit.
我的意思是，这仍然让人难受。
I mean, it still hurts.
所以我认为会有一些立即的影响，你会在服务业看到，比如人们外出就餐、去度假。
So I I think there will be some some immediate and you'll see that in in services in, you know, people eat out of the restaurant, take a vacation.
这就是第一次冲击。
So that's the first hit.
然后，是的，我预计今年下半年会有更多的财政刺激。
And then, yes, I I expect more fiscal in the second half of the year.
关税相关的款项因最高法院而被搁置了。
The tariff checks are kind of held up with the Supreme Court.
据我了解，这个判决可能要到三月底才会出来。
My understanding is that it may not come until until late March that that verdict.
但一旦情况明朗，我的预期是，时间拖得越久，情况就越严峻。
But as soon as that's clear and my expectation is that, you know, the more time passes, the harder this this becomes.
这是为了逐步解除。
This is to unwind.
总的来说，我认为最高法院若在打击恐怖分子的问题上死磕，并不明智。
And in general, I don't think the Supreme Court's it would be wise for them to die in the battle of terrorists.
我的意思是，还有那么多宪法争议可以挑。
I mean, there are so many constitutional battles to pick.
所以我认为他们可能会稍微做点什么。
So I think they'll be you know, they'll probably like do a little something.
但总体而言，关税收入会存在，而花掉这笔钱的政治动机也会非常、非常大。
But but by and large, the the tariff money will be there and the political incentive to spend it will be very, very large.
我的意思是，离中期选举越近，对特朗普及其家人实施弹劾甚至刑事起诉的风险就越大。
I mean, the closer we get to the midterm, the the larger the risk really of impeachment, maybe criminal prosecution against both Trump and his family.
所以你真的想避免这种结果。
So you really want to get avoid that outcome.
然后我们就会看到大量这类尝试。
Then we see plenty of these attempts.
所以有可能。
So it could be.
是的，可能是关税红利支票。
Yeah, it could be tariff dividend checks.
我强迫自己听完了凯文·沃什所做过的几乎所有访谈。
We hear I so I forced myself to listen to pretty much every interview that Kevin Worsch has given.
我正想提到这一点，它的相关性确实存在。
I was about to bring that up, the relevance Yeah.
至少在某种程度上。
Of that at all to
过去。
In the past.
不。
No.
但你知道，我的意思是，他首先非常聪明。
But you know that I mean, he he's first of all, he's very smart.
他非常有魅力，是个出色的演讲者。
He's very charismatic, very good speaker.
而且他偶尔会像电子游戏中的彩蛋一样，抛出一些东西，比如‘QE对民众来说’，你是这个意思吗？
And then he once in a while, it's like an Easter egg in video games where he drops something and then like QE for the people, like, do you mean?
美联储与财政部的协议，你是说这个吗？
Fed Treasury Accord, I mean, like, knows?
他们可能有一些我们没想到的东西。
They they may be something that we're not thinking of.
但我的总体观点是，是的，财政政策必须极度宽松。
But my general idea is that yes, fiscal will have to be run extremely loose.
经济已经在快速增长。
The economy is already growing very fast.
美联储将根据所谓的中性利率水平进行降息。
The Fed is going to cut to the extent that there is such thing as a neutral rate.
我认为中性利率高于当前联邦基金利率的水平。
I think it's higher than the current level of the Fed funds rate.
所以我们正在模拟。
So we are simulating.
我们有银行放松监管，特别是如果我们缩减美联储的资产负债表的话。
We have banking deregulation, especially if we shrink the Fed balance sheet.
我们肯定需要把这些国债放到别的地方去。
We certainly need to put these treasuries somewhere else.
所以我们得 basically 用利益诱惑银行来接受它们。
So we'll have to basically bribe the banks into taking them.
而诱惑银行的方式就是允许它们提高杠杆率。
And the way you bribe banks is by allowing to take up more leverage.
因此，我们可能会经历这种通胀加速，这让我目前对股票市场相当看涨。
So we could have this kind of inflationary acceleration, which makes me quite bullish for now on stocks.
尽管我认为我们正看到市场出现波动的迹象，波动性正在上升，这你知道，当前的状况让我想起1999年底到2000年初，那时动量虽然在放缓，但股价仍在创新高。
Although I I think we are seeing signs that the market is churning, that volatility is picking up and that's, you know, I mean, the current conditions kind of remind me of late nineteen ninety nine, early two thousand when we're still momentum was slowing, but you're still making new highs.
表面上看，市场领涨板块正在转移，而波动性却急剧上升，整个市场板块都在崩盘。
The leadership was shifting on the surface and then volatility was really rising with entire segments of the market blowing up.
这正好符合这种模式：市场在波动加剧的情况下缓慢攀升，直到夏天。
And that would fit nicely into this pattern where we see the market kind of grind higher on higher volatility until the summer.
到了夏天，我们会迎来刺激措施和降息。
And then by the summer we get we get the stimulus, we get the rate cuts.
当然，我们不会看到强劲的盈利，因为盈利会受益于这种通胀繁荣，但推动市场上涨的新动力不会太多，然后我们就必须考虑——我认为，出现高概率情况的可能性。
Not that we get great earnings obviously because earnings will benefit from this inflationary boom, but there won't be that much new fuel to power the advance and then we have to start considering the, I think, the high chance.
如果选举在公平条件下进行，民主党将取得压倒性胜利，随后形成分裂政府，并引发左翼民粹主义的转向，这将为我在2020年代末至2030年代初预期的长期熊市铺平道路。
If if the election is held in under fair conditions that the Democrats win a landslide and then we have divided government and then we get that kind of shift towards populism on the left that would pave the way for what I expect to be a secular bear market in the late twenty twenties, early twenty thirties.
好的。
Okay.
这需要消化的内容太多了。
Lots to unpack from that.
我想听听你对那个关键观点以及美联储货币政策新框架的看法，因为你过去一年一直对货币政策的有效性持严厉批评态度。
I want to I want to get your perspective on on that wharsh point and this new framework for for the Fed monetary policy because you've been a you've been a pretty stern critic of the relevance of monetary policy after last year.
记得我们上一次访谈，好像是在美联储会议结束后的那天。
It's like, think our our last interview was the day after a Fed meeting or something.
你对美联储会议有什么看法？
Was just like, what'd you think of the Fed meeting?
我不知道，我跳过了。
I don't know, I skipped it.
而且基本上就是一些术语问题，还有整个新闻发布会之类的东西。
And it's just like, been mostly just, you know, semantics and, you know, the whole press conference thing.
我只是好奇，随着沃什加入并带来这些新观点，你的看法有改变吗？
And I'm just curious, like, that perspective changing as Warsh comes in and brings in these new ideas?
因为如果你在谈论货币政策的通胀影响，我猜这与过去十年我们所经历的情况略有不同。
Because if you're talking about inflationary impact from monetary policy, I imagine that's slightly different from where we've been over the last decade or so.
是的。
Yeah.
我对美联储会议、暗中操作和前瞻性指引的怀疑部分源于凯文·沃什。
Well, part of my skepticism over Fed meetings and dark plots and then forward guidance comes from Kevin Walsh.
我的意思是，是的。
I mean Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
他那些采访太精彩了，你知道的，他把美联储批得体无完肤，他很擅长这个。
He has these amazing interviews, you know, where he just rips the Fed apart, he's good at it.
我建议人们去听，我觉得是Uber研究所。
I I recommend people I think it's the Uber Institute.
听听凯文·沃尔什吧，因为他不仅风趣，而且表达得非常好。
Like, listen to Kevin Walsh because he's also funny and he he speaks well.
他写作也很棒。
He writes well.
他的评论文章相当不错，而且总能一针见血。
His op eds are pretty good and and and he hits it on the head.
归根结底，我怀疑是机构塑造了领导者，而不是领导者塑造了机构。
Ultimately, I, know, I I'm skeptical that I think institutions frame leaders rather than leaders frame institution.
我觉得这届政府就体现了这种模式，比如让卡什·帕特尔来领导联邦调查局。
I think that's a pattern we see in this administration is is, you know, you get Kash Patel to lead the FBI.
对吧？
Right?
所以你让那个处理爱泼斯坦档案的人去掩盖爱泼斯坦的档案。
So you get the the Epstein file guy to cover up the Epstein files.
你让图尔西·加巴德负责情报，然后你策划了一场叙利亚政变，还轰炸了伊朗。
You get Tulsi Gabbard at Intelligence, and then you you you organize a coup in Syria and you bomb Iran.
我可以继续列举，比如让RFK负责卫生与公共服务，却完全违背了他上任前的承诺——这正是这一届政府的模式：任命那些上任前说一套、上任后做另一套的人。
And I could keep, you get, you know, RFK, for health and human services without so it's it's it's a pattern of this administration to put people to do the exact opposite of what they said they were going to do before getting the job.
这就像你在《学徒》节目中常说的，简直太有戏剧性了。
It's it's, you know, kind of makes for great TV as as you would say on The Apprentice.
我认为凯文·沃尔什是个聪明人。
And I think Kevin Walsh is is a is a smart man.
显然，他是个政治操盘手。
Obviously, he's a political agent.
他非常擅长构建论点，而且基本上找到了一个突破口。
He's very creative with arguments and he's basically found a breach.
是的。
Right.
所以他到底是为了什么？
So he had for what?
十五年来，他一直坚持一个明显错误的资产负债表政策模型。
Fifteen years now, had this demonstrably false model of balance sheet policy.
他一直认为，哦，量化宽松会引发通胀。
He keeps, know, he was part of this, oh, QE is going to be inflationary.
在2010年代，有一篇由非常聪明的人撰写的社论，说伯南克会搞垮美元。
You know, there was this op ed in the twenty tens with very smart people on it saying that, you know, Bernanke was going to, you know, like ruin the dollar.
但那根本不对。
And that was just not true.
我的意思是，欧洲和美国已经有长达二十年的量化宽松了。
I mean, we have like two decades of QE in Europe, in The U.
美国。
S.
日本的情况表明，这并不会引发通胀。
And Japan that shows that it's not inflationary.
但他现在明白，他可以改变这一点。
But what he figured out now is that he can change that.
他会说，如果美联储资产负债表扩张是通胀性的，那么收缩就一定是通缩性的。
Would say, well, if the Fed balance sheet growing the Fed's balance sheet is inflationary, then shrinking, it must be deflationary.
如果我缩减资产负债表——从道德角度来说，这可能是个好主意——那就能为降息腾出空间。
And if I shrink the balance sheet, which we could argue for moral reason is probably a good idea, then that gives me room to give rate cuts.
所以他把自己的论点扭曲成一种能迎合新政府的说辞，再加上他上镜效果好，因此得到了这份工作。
So he kind of twisted his argument into something that would appeal to the new administration That and the fact that he looks good on TV, got him the job.
所以我认为他不会像市场认为的那样激进。
So I don't think he's gonna be as hockey as the market thinks.
另一个例子是，有人言行完全相反，那就是斯科特·贝森。
Again, another example of someone who does the exact opposite of what he says is from his point is Scott Besson.
斯科特·贝森曾激烈批评耶伦的耶伦经济学。
Scott Besson was a ferocious critic of Yellen for Yellenomics.
耶伦经济学、积极的财政部发行、转向这种模式。
Yellenomics, activist treasury issuance, shifting to the format.
他上任后立刻做了什么？
What does he do as soon as he gets in?
这就是原因。
That's why
我不认为凯文·沃尔什会成为传闻中那样鹰派的人物。
I'm not convinced that Kevin Walsh is going to be the hawk that is rumored to be.
我也认为降息的窗口期非常有限，而且很短暂。
I also think the window for rate cuts is quite low, quite short.
我们此刻可能正处在窗口期关闭的过程中。
It may be passing as we speak.
现在我们仍然受到未来滞后租金的顺风影响。
Now we still have this kind of tailwind from from the lagging rents in tomorrow.
这意味着消费者价格指数将会，你知道的，希望保持在一定范围内。
That means that CPI is going to be, you know, hopefully somewhat contained.
但时间越久，维持这个谎言就越困难。
But the more time passes, the harder it will be to maintain the lie.
你可以看到裂缝正在出现，人们都知道通胀不会是2.5%或者下次公布时的任何数字。
You can see the light crack like people know that inflation is not 2.5% or whatever it's going to be at the next release.
所以你真的必须现在就行动，趁这个谎言还没变得太明显。
So you really have to do it now before the lie becomes so obvious.
所以我认为我们会降息，而且最终会的。
So I think we'll get the cuts and I think eventually.
我的意思是，沃什在被任命之前，如果没有和特朗普讨论过利率问题，那才真是疯狂。
Yeah, I mean, it would be crazy for Worsch to not not have had the rates conversation with Donald Trump before he was appointed.
我的意思是，获得这份工作的条件就是你必须降息。
I mean, that was that's the condition to get the job is you will cut rates.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为关键在于，这和我之前提到的有关，我们需要把我们讨论过的内容串联起来：比如，你认为2026年经济增长会重新加速，我们之前谈到了财政方面。
I think the thing is, and this ties back to what I was getting at the, you're to weave a thread here in terms of what we've been talking about, but okay, you think, you know, growth reacceleration in 2026, we talked about the fiscal part.
我认为这里另一个需要讨论的重要方面，至少是我想要深入探讨的方向，就是人工智能、人工智能资本支出和生产率激增。
And then I feel like the other big component to discuss here and at least into where I want to go with this, which is around AI, AI CapEx and productivity boom.
所以，我认为支持进一步降息的最悲观论点是，我们将看到一场巨大的生产率提升，因此需要大幅降息。
So, you know, what's underwriting, I think the worst thesis there for more rate cuts is that we're gonna see a huge productivity boom and therefore we need to cut rates a bunch.
同时，对于资产负债表的鹰派立场而言，这两者结合在一起，我们必须把利率大幅下调。
And also for hawkish on the balance sheet, like those two together, we gotta get rates way down.
所以我想听听你对这一动态的看法。
So there's there's that dynamic I'd love to hear your perspective on.
另外，所有这些人工智能资本支出对经济的影响也很重要。
And then also just the impact of all that AI CapEx on the economy.
我的意思是，过去一周我们看到了七家巨头公司的财报，它们的资本支出预测都远远超过了营收预期的上限。
I mean, we're seeing over the last week we had the max seven earnings come out and each of them, their estimates for CapEx are like blowing through the roof of like top line estimates.
我们的资本支出总额在2026年即将接近一万亿美元，这将对经济产生相当积极的影响。
I mean, we're getting close to a trillion dollars in CapEx just from them in 2026, and that's going to have a pretty positive impact on the economy.
是的。
Yeah.
你如何看待AI这场变革的这两个方面？
How do you think about those two components of of the AI play?
是的。
Yeah.
让我先谈谈洗牌，再谈资本支出激增对经济的影响。
So let me first on some wash and then on the economic impact of the CapEx boom.
关于洗牌，这基本上是特朗普政府的论调。
On wash, yeah, that's basically talking point from the Trump administration.
哈塞特经常在CNBC上反复强调这一点。
Hassett, you know, would be on CNBC all the time making that same point.
而且，我认为沃尔什也跟风加入了这一观点。
And, again, I think Walsh has kind of, you know, jumped on the bandwagon there.
至于增长故事，这就像格林斯潘时代的美联储，对吧？
The growth story, oh, this is, you know, kind of like Greenspan Fed, right?
当时格林斯潘据说预见了互联网热潮的潜力，因而维持较低利率，促成了1990年代的经济平稳增长。
Where Greenspan supposedly saw the potential of the Internet boom and kept rates lower and now for great moderation in 1990s.
我觉得这个叙事存在很多问题。
Think there's a lot of issues narrative.
我认为20世纪90年代的大通缩与中国的崛起、高移民潮以及全球化等因素密切相关，而这些因素如今已不复存在。
Think a lot of the great disinflation 1990s had to do with China, had to do with high immigration, things that are globalization, things that we're not having today.
那不仅仅是人们买东西，或者在AOL聊天室聊天、在eBay上购物那么简单。
It was not just, you know, people buying stuff or, you know, chatting on AOL chat rooms and and buying stuff on eBay.
因此，我对这个叙事本身及其被纳入讨论持一定程度的怀疑态度。
But so I'm somewhat skeptical both of the the narrative and and its inclusion.
我的意思是，纵观凯文·沃尔什的职业生涯，他一直坚持货币主义的通胀观点，对吧？
I mean, for all his professional life, Kevin Walsh has defended a monetarist view of inflation, right?
那句著名的名言：通胀在任何时候、任何地方都是一种货币现象。
The famous quote by mental affairs always and everywhere monetary phenomenon.
所以，如果你认同这一理论，那么生产率或政府赤字等因素就应该产生影响。
So if you buy by this theory, things like productivity or government deficits should matter.
因此，我们再次看到他那种典型的实用主义倾向——选择那些对他政治立场有利的论点。
So again, we see the same kind of Camille on nature where he grabs something that because he's politically expedient for him to use that.
我的意思是，关键是我们不知道人工智能对生产率的影响。
I mean, the bottom line is we don't know the effect of of AI on productivity.
这就是为什么我回到税收征收这个问题，以及我们只知道收入这一观点。
That's why I go back to this tax collection and this idea that all we know is income.
收入在增长。
Income is growing.
这是通货膨胀吗？
Now is it inflation?
是增长吗？
Is it growth?
是生产率提升吗？
Is it productivity?
我不知道。
I don't know.
我们现在的生产率是多少？
What's our productivity right now?
我的意思是，我们可以说它的效率非常高，十年前我们根本无法制作这样的播客，但同时我们也可以质疑，我们的这场对话真的让美国经济变得富裕了多少吗？你究竟该如何衡量生产力？
I mean we could argue that it's very high, I mean ten years ago we couldn't do this podcast but and we could argue also that you know, are we, is The US economy really that much richer because of our conversation, like how do you measure productivity?
我对这一点非常怀疑。
I'm very skeptical of this.
再次强调，我们任何时候能看到的都只是收入。
Again, all we can see at any given time is income.
我知道的是，名义收入正在增长。
And what I know is nominal incomes are growing.
这就是我不断提到名义增长繁荣的原因。
That's why I keep talking about this nominal growth boom.
我愿意接受可能存在生产力提升这一可能性。
I'm open to the possibility that there is indeed a productivity component.
我的意思是，当然，和每个人一样，我使用AI，并对它的一些功能感到惊叹。
I mean, of course, I like everybody, I use AI and I'm amazed by some of the things that it does.
但我也对它带来的许多其他事情感到担忧。
I'm also worried by many other things that it does.
我认为，技术的关键始终在于普及，而不是技术本身。
I think with technology, it's always about adoption, more so than the technology itself.
我们不知道它会产生什么影响。
And we don't know what effects it's going to have.
所以我会把这个问题留到未来观察，归为待定类别。
So I would leave that in the to be seen time with down type of category.
现在，你的第二个问题是资本支出繁荣的影响，这一点我们其实知道一些，对吧？
Now, your second question was the impact of the CapEx boom and there we we know, right?
我们不知道十五年后人工智能的回报会怎样，也不知道人们关于GPU寿命和变现速度的预测是否准确。
We don't know what the AI return will be in fifteen years and whether the projection that these people make in terms of like GPU lifespan and how quickly they can monetize.
但我们知道，当你建造一些数据中心时，它们的规模比曼哈顿还大。
But we know that, you know, when you build some of these data centers are bigger than Manhattan.
所以你必须挖地基，搬运钢铁构件。
So you're just gonna have to, you know, dig holes in the ground, take beams of steel.
这正是我主张关注能源的原因，包括传统的能源，而不仅仅是天然气。
And that was part of my case for for energy, even old school energy, like not just nat gas.
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我的意思是，这些数据中心最终将由可再生能源和核能供电，而天然气则会成为从石油等其他能源过渡的桥梁能源，因为建设这些设施本身就需要大量投入。
I mean, the the idea of the data centers will be powered eventually by by renewable and and and nuclear and then nat gas is going to be a kind of a bridge energy out of even oil else because the the actual process of building these fields.
而且，这些设施规模巨大。
And again, these things are massive.
它们并不是那种简单的空厂房式的普通工业建筑，对吧？
They're not regular industrial structure where it's basically just an empty shed, right?
你有成排的服务器，需要更多的冷却，墙与地板的面积比也高得多，因此建造它们消耗的能量要大得多。
You have these rows of servers, much more cooling, much, much higher wall to floor ratio so that they're more energy intensive to build them.
所以，是的，这显然推动了2026年的通胀热潮。
So, yeah, obviously that contributes to the inflationary boom of 2026.
我的意思是，如果我们考虑经济的主要部门，政府领域我已经预计赤字占GDP的6%，而且随着财政政策的进一步实施，赤字还会扩大。
I mean, if we think about the main sectors of the economy, you have your government sector, where I expect we already have 6% deficit to GDP and I expect more impulse as we get the checkbook policy out.
然后私营部门正在扩大资产负债表。
Then the private sector is increasing the balance sheet.
当你进行投资时，就会扩大资产负债表，而家庭储蓄却异常低迷。
That's what you do when you when you invest, you grow the balance sheet And your your household's, like, savings are extraordinarily low.
所以所有这些都表明，经济正在加速，甚至可能过热。
So all these to me point to a, an economy that's accelerating and possibly overheating.
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是的。
Mhmm.
说得非常好。
Very well put.
所以，好吧。
So okay.
这引出了你提出的另一个有趣框架，即这一切都导致了一个名义增长泡沫，但你还相信存在多个泡沫。
This gets to this other interesting framework that you have, which is that that's all leading to a nominal growth bubble, but then you also believe that there's multiple bubbles happening.
还有一个股市泡沫，以及一个悲观主义泡沫。
There's also a stock market bubble and then also a pessimism bubble.
你能详细解释一下这些是如何相互作用的吗？
Walk me through how all of those work together.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为，成为一名优秀的宏观分析师，很多特质来自于能够同时在脑海中持有两个相互矛盾甚至对立的观点，而不被由此产生的认知失调所压垮。
I think a lot of the qualities of being a good macro analyst comes from being able to hold two contract, two contract or contract contradictory thoughts in your head at the same time and not be overwhelmed by the cognitive dissonance that comes from it.
这非常不舒服，对吧？
And it's very uncomfortable, right?
因为人的思维喜欢结构和连贯的叙事。
Because the mind likes structure and coherent narrative.
而事实上，世界是复杂的，每一个行动都会产生相应的反应。
And in reality, the world is complex and every action creates a reaction.
因此，你总是容易陷入某些朝错误方向发展的状况，这里那里都是问题。
So you can always prone to something that's moving in the wrong direction and this and that.
所以这就是我想表达的观点。
So that's where I'm going.
所以我之前谈到了这种名义增长泡沫。
So I talked about this kind of nominal growth bubble.
与此同时，我们还存在一种悲观情绪泡沫。
At the same time, we have a pessimism bubble.
如果你看一下情绪调查，我的意思是，我们目前的情绪水平是自上一次新冠疫情以来从未见过的。
If you look at sentiment surveys, I mean, we are at levels not seen since last COVID.
如果你问人们对国家发展方向的看法，或者问年轻人对未来的感受，又或者问那些想买房的人。
If you ask people about the direction of the country or if you ask young people about how they feel about the future, if you ask people who want to buy a home.
我的意思是，最近一段时间以来，我们从未见过如此普遍的悲观情绪。
I mean, not in recent time, we've never seen such pessimism.
嗯，可以说，这是最好的时代。
Well, arguably, you know, this is the best of time.
我的意思是，这几乎让我想起了狄更斯在《双城记》中的那句名言。
I mean, it almost kind of reminds me of the the Dickens quote in the tale of two cities.
你知道，那是一个光明的时代，也是一个黑暗的时代。
You know, it was a time of light, time of darkness.
那是一个充满希望的季节。
It was a season of hope.
那是一个绝望的季节。
It was season of despair.
有趣的是，他当时描述的是法国大革命时期。
And interestingly, what he's doing there is describing revolutionary France.
我认为，当我们即将经历革命性变革时，这其中有着很好的相似之处。
I and I think there's a nice parallel there when we are about to experience revolutionary change.
我相信我们正处在这个时刻。
And I believe we are.
我们正经历一场技术革命，眼看着周围的制度纷纷瓦解。
We have these kind of technological revolution and we see the institutions crumble around us.
你同时看到了光明与黑暗。
You see both the light and the darkness at the same time.
而这，我认为，正是这种认知上的混乱，加剧了我们所感受到的焦虑情绪。
And and that's, I think, the cognitive, you know, someone that that generated contributes to this nervousness that that we can see in energy.
所以，是的，有三个泡沫：股市泡沫。
So, yes, three bubbles, stock market bubble.
不可否认，至少部分股市正处于泡沫之中，我们看到的波动性和估值都极高，还有悲观情绪泡沫和名义增长泡沫。
Think it's undeniable that at least part of the stock markets are in bubble, the kind of volatility that we see, the valuations that we see are extremely high, a pessimism bubble and finally a nominal growth bubble.
这些条件，正是历史上每次重大革命爆发前我们所观察到的。
Again, these are conditions that we observed before every major revolution in history.
快速的技术变革、名义增长的加速，同时又有一种事物正在崩解的感觉，这加剧了‘世界即将毁灭’的恐慌。
Rapid technological change, acceleration of nominal growth, and at the same time, a sense that things are unraveling and that contributes to this sense that, you know, the world is going to burn.
我喜欢这种说法。
I love that framing.
这很有趣，因为当你看这些消费者情绪调查时，如今它们变得如此政治化。
And it's interesting because, you know, when you look at those those consumer sentiment surveys, like it's so it's so political these days.
你可以看到，在拜登政府时期，共和党的消费者情绪低迷，而民主党人则很开心。
You can see that, you know, during the Biden administration, it was the Republicans whose, you know, consumer sentiment was in the dumps and Democrats are happy.
而如今情况完全相反了。
And now these days, it's the complete opposite.
共和党的情绪现在上升了，中等水平，简直就像……
And Republican sentiment is up here, medium, and it's just like
这太疯狂了。
it's insane.
我们的基线更低了，这正是我论点的一部分。
We have a lower baseline, and that that's that's part of my thesis.
你说得对，你也可以从拥有资产的人和没有资产的人的角度来看，就像K形分化一样，富人比穷人过得更好。
Mean what you say is true, you could also look at it in terms of you know people who own assets versus people who don't, k shaped like sure like wealthy folks are doing better than than poor people.
老年人比年轻人过得更好。
The old are doing better than the young.
共和党人比民主党人更乐观。
The Republicans are more optimistic than than the Democrats.
但所有人都是。
But all of them.
都在降级，共和党的信心从未如此低迷。
Are trading trading down like the Republicans confidence has never matched.
我的意思是，特朗普赢了，回头看，某种程度上确实有过一段经济黄金时代。
Like, I mean, Trump won, you know, was looking back, there was kind of a gold economy golden age on some to some level like that.
他的个人支持率一直不高，只有40%左右，因为他这个人就是这样。
He's like his this personal approval rating was never very high around four because because of who he is.
但他执政期间，人们对他的经济管理能力信心非常强。
But he's the confidence in his ability to manage the economy was very strong throughout the term.
现在我们看到，即使在共和党人和独立选民中，随着埃普斯坦事件的曝光，信心也在下降。
We are now seeing that this time even with Republicans and, of course, independents is kind of falling with with all the Epstein revelations.
所以这是一些灰色地带。
So it's shades of gray.
但我认为，这种信心下降的模式在富人、穷人、共和党人、民主党人、年轻人和老年人中都有所体现，只是下降速度不同。
But I think this this pattern of falling confidence is is observed across the the rich, the poor, the Republicans, the Democrats, the young and the old, just at varying speeds.
是的。
Yeah.
你认为这一切会如何解决呢？
How do you how do you think this all resolves itself?
是会一直恶化下去，直到糟糕到非改善不可的地步吗？
Like, does it just keep getting worse until it gets so bad that it just has to improve?
还是你会采纳萨沃里·达莉亚的一些观点，他认为有几种出路？
Or like, do you adopt some of the framings that Savory Dahlia has where he talks about, do you know, there's a few ways out of this?
要么是去杠杆化，要么是把富人的钱拿过来进行财富再分配，又或者我们迎来一次漂亮的去杠杆化。
It's either a deleveraging, it's, you know, going to grab all the money from the rich people and wealth distribution, or maybe we get a beautiful deleveraging.
也就是说，你觉得这一切最终会怎样收场？
Like, yeah, how do you think about how this all ends up?
对。
Yeah.
一般来说，我认同第四次转折债务周期理论，即雷·达利奥和尼尔·豪的分析。
Generally, I subscribe to the fourth turning debt cycle, Ray Dalio, Neil Howe analysis.
我想对‘美好的债务周期’这个观点进行一些补充，我认为这并非误称，因为如果你读过达利奥的著作，他实际上提到了所有这些要素。
I would rebound on on the idea that the beautiful data regime, which which I think is a bit of a not a misnomer because if you read Redaglio, he actually mentions all the elements.
华尔街喜欢‘美好的债务周期’这个概念，因为它就像免费午餐，对吧？
Wall Street love the idea of the the beautiful data regime because it's kind of the free it's the free lunch, right?
所以我们只需要让名义经济增长加速，再通过金融压抑来压低资本成本。
So all we have to do is basically run G nominal growth hot and then suppress or the cost of capital with financial repression.
所以，让我稍微回退一下，谈谈这个债务周期分析。
So, you know, the idea is we, you know, let me walk back a little bit on this debt cycle analysis.
当和平与繁荣持续时，经济扩张，富人越来越富，穷人则相对更穷，最终达到临界点，对吧？因为归根结底，富人从穷人身上赚钱，而穷人却越来越穷。
Know, As as as you have peace and prosperity, the economies expand, rich people get richer, poor people get somewhat poorer, and you reach kind of the breaking point, right, because at the end of day, the the rich people make money from the poor people and the poor people are too poorer.
这其实是非常简化的马克思主义101，但这就是核心思想。
That's very simply simplified Marxist Marxism one zero one for you, but that's that's the general idea.
因此，我们需要某种方式重新平衡，降低债务的价值——这对富人来说是资产，对穷人来说却是负债。
So you need somehow to kind of rebalance, write down the value of the debt, which is the asset of the rich people, the liability of the poor people.
雷·达利奥提出了‘美丽的去杠杆化’这一概念，我认为这正是特朗普政府试图推行的政策。
And Ray Dalio is this concept of beautiful lever deleveraging, which I think is generally the policies that the Trump administration is trying to achieve.
我得承认，他们确实直面了这个问题。
I'll give them credit for actually stacking the problem.
我的意思是，好吧，我们会让美联储降息，并调整杠杆比率以刺激对国债的需求。
I mean, okay, we're going to suppress our we're to have the Fed, you know, cut rates and we're going tilt leverage ratios to create demand for treasuries.
我们还会迫使外国人购买国债，或者类似的做法。
We're to force foreigners to buy them or whatever.
同时，我们会通过大规模的投资规则调整、财政刺激等手段，给经济增长带来巨大冲击。
And at the same time, we're going to have massive growth to massive shock to growth within rules on investment, fiscal stimulus and so forth.
但问题是，当你这样做时，随着利率被压低、增长被提振，资产价格会上涨。
Now the problem with that is as you do this, as you shrink, suppress R and boost G while it goes up is asset prices.
我的意思是，再次强调，我这里只是沿用金融学入门的基本原理。
I mean remember that again, I'm sticking with finance 101 here.
股票的价值等于其未来现金流除以股权成本与增长率之差。
The value of a stock is equal to its future cash flow divided by the difference between the cost of equity pay or minus g.
因此，如果你扩大这个差值，市盈率就会飙升，从而再次引发可负担性问题和不平等。
So if you increase that difference, multiples go through the roof and you get back to you kind of affordability issue inequality.
所以，你无法仅仅通过套利 R 减 G 来摆脱这种局面，即使采用所谓的‘完美’数据版本也不行。
So you can't really get out of this by the beautiful data version simply by kind of arbitraging this R minus G.
你需要的是雷·达利奥所推崇的那种做法。
What you need is what Ray Dalio likes about.
我认为他所指的，是积极的再分配政策，比如对高收入群体征收更高的税率、提高企业所得税率，以及改变经济增加值的分配方式。
And I think what he hears is this very active redistributive policies, basically higher tax rate on on on the top income, higher corporate income tax rates and a shift in the way you you share economic value added.
我的意思是，我们已经看到利润占比激增，而工资占比却在收缩。
I mean, we've seen surge in share of profit and a contraction share of wages.
你需要让这个趋势逆转，才能完成这场‘完美的去杠杆’。
You need that to move the other direction to complete the beautiful deleveraging.
所以我的观点是，如果我们把这种深度周期视为一个过程，那么我们现在正处于这个过程的开端。
So my idea is if we think this is depth cycle idea is as a process, we are at the beginning of the process.
我们现在处于缩减债务、扩大政府支出的阶段；而第二阶段——我认为会在中期选举之后，或者更可能是在下一轮选举周期中出现——将是真正实施类似新政时期的紧缩政策。
We are at, know, the shrinking our boosting G then phase two, which I think would happen either after the midterms or more likely next electoral cycle will be actually reduced review policies like what we had, you know, after the new deal.
我的意思是，五十年代美国边际所得税率高达70%以上。
And I mean, the fifties we had like marginal income tax rate in North of 70% in The U.
美国。
S.
而在欧洲一些国家甚至高达90%。
And 90% in some countries in Europe.
而且在进步时代末期，我们也实行了非常强有力的反垄断执法。
And we had a very strong antitrust enforcement also at the end of the progressive era.
所以，这就是那个缺失的环节，如果你愿意这么说的话，是我们尚未完成的这种‘美好去杠杆’过程。
So that's the missing link, if you will, of this beautiful deleveraging that's that we have not completed.
而在我们完成它之前，我们将无法摆脱困境。
And until we complete it, we will not get out of it.
所以，如果你问我这将如何结束，答案是通过转向更具再分配性质的政策。
So if you ask me how it ends, it ends with a shift towards more redistributive policies.
至于这会是来自一个左倾的、类似曼达尼式的政府，还是本土主义民粹派的JD·万斯政府，我就不知道了。
Now, whether that's going to come from a, you know, left leaning kind of Mamdani type of government or nativist populist JD Vance administration, I don't know.
但那就是这个男孩要去的地方。
But that's where the boy is going.
是的。
Yeah.
无论如何，它们都会去那里。
Regardless, they both go there.
是的。
Yeah.
这说得通。
It makes sense.
所以这就是国内的状况。
And So that's that's the domestic situation.
我觉得现在如此疯狂的是，你还要面对整个地缘政治局势，以及那里正在发生的事情。
And I think what is so insane about these days is that you also have the entire geopolitical situation on top of this and what's been going on there.
你最近写了很多相关内容，你知道，有趣的是，我相信你的很多观点都源自去年秋天。
You've been writing quite a bit about it in terms of you know, it's interesting that I I believe a lot of your thesis came from back in the fall.
特朗普政府实际上发布了他们的国家安全行动手册。
They the Trump administration released their their national security playbook effectively.
所有内容都明确写在那里，他们打算做什么一清二楚。
And it was all it was all written out there, exactly what they're gonna do.
你只要读一读，就能得出关于委内瑞拉发生之事的结论。
And, like, all you had do is read it, and you would have came to the conclusions about Venezuela, that happened.
你早在十二月初就写过这些，值得肯定。
And you were writing about that to your credit back in early early December.
所以，我很想听听，地缘政治动态是如何叠加在我们刚才讨论的一切之上的？
So, yeah, would love to just hear about how does the geopolitical dynamics stack on top of everything we just talked about?
我认为它们加剧了这场多层面的危机。
Well, I think that they contribute to this multifaceted crisis.
没错。
Right.
你经历了技术变革。
You had the the technological change.
你还有地缘政治的变化。
You have the geopolitical change.
显然，我们看到二战后和冷战后的国际秩序正在崩溃。
Clearly, we see this post World War two post Cold War architecture is blowing up.
我们看到美国正在对北约盟友发出重大威胁。
We see The US making major threats against NATO allies.
你现在看到欧亚大陆已经经历了五年的战争，死亡率非常高。
You see now five years of war in Eurasia, very high death rates.
所以这也是其中一部分。
So it's part of it.
对吧？
Right?
而且显然，你看到美国。
And obviously, you see The US.
我认为，我们所经历的很多问题都源于这样一个认识：美国没有足够的工业基础来支撑它在德国制造的困境。
I think I think a lot of what what we experience is they come from the realization that The US does not have the industrial base to support its misery in Germany.
那是全球化所强加的妥协。
That that was the the forced bargain of globalization.
就像是，我们会开放市场，然后变得更有钱。
It's like, well, we'll open up, we'll get richer.
但当我们这样做的时候，美国的工业化程度却在下降，
But as we do that, The U.
这意味着它维持全球秩序的能力正在消失，必须分享这种权力。
Industrialized, which means that its ability to maintain that global order goes away and it needs to share this power.
现在，这种权力分享是和平进行还是非和平进行，还有待观察。
Now, whether that power sharing will happen peacefully or non peacefully remains to be seen.
但，是的，这确实是这个故事的一部分，也是我呼吁关注能源的原因之一。
But, yeah, it it is definitely part of the story and it was part of my my call for for energy.
在2025年底，能源成了最受憎恨的资产。
In, you know, late twenty twenty five, energy was really the the most hated asset.
这让我想起了2022年的Meta，或2024年的谷歌，还有2020年的中国股票，人们都说：这没法投资，永远完蛋了，诸如此类。
It it reminded me of Meta in 2022 or Google in 2024, Chinese stocks in '20, you know, oh, it's uninvestable, it's permanently broken, blah, blah, blah.
事实上，能源现在是标普500指数中表现最好的板块。
And in reality, energy is now the best performing sector in the S and P 500.
而且我认为，它仍然是美国股市中为数不多的廉价资产之一。
And it's still, I would say, still one of the few cheap assets in The US equity market.
另一个动态当然是关税及其对国际收支、进而对资本配置和美国资产需求的影响。
The other dynamic, of course, is what's going on with tariffs and how that affects balance of payments and then therefore capital allocation and the bid for US assets.
我想更具体地问问，从市场配置的角度来看，这会对美国风险资产的持续需求产生什么影响？
And I'm curious how getting a bit more tactically here on the market allocation, what does that do to the steady bid into US risk?
因为你提到，好吧。
Because you're talking about, okay.
我们将在2026年维持美国经济的高增长态势，直到利率上调之前，股市表现应该都不错。
We're gonna have this this run it hot mentality for The US economy in 2026, and equity should do well up until probably we see a rate hike up until then.
我猜你大概也清楚，这就像2022年给我们上的一课。
You're probably I imagine in the clear, that's kinda how I felt like the experience of 2022 taught us.
但同时，你还要面对全球其他地区的表现这一动态，以及如果由于关税和我们对国际收支的调整，美元不再大量流向海外，美国股市是否还能持续获得外资青睐。
But then you also have this dynamic of rest of world and how it's performing and whether there is that continued bid into US equities if we're not seeing as many dollars flow out to the rest of the world because of tariffs and what we're trying to do with the balance of payments.
你怎么看待这些资本流动，以及是否应该配置美国市场还是全球其他市场？
How do you think about those capital flows and whether to be exposed to The US or rest of the world?
我一直看好国际市场，而非看空美国市场，我建议人们增加配置，尤其是过去三年拉丁美洲的表现非常突出。
So I've been kind of an international bull and not not bear in US, but I recommended people allocate more to I mean, Latin America was dramatically on the road for the past three years.
现在情况开始好转了。
It's starting to be better.
欧洲看起来非常出色。
Europe looks fantastic.
去年，我们有疲软的欧元、下降的通胀和政府刺激政策。
Last year, we had a cheap euro, falling inflation, government stimulus.
这些因素今天有些不再那么有吸引力了，但总体而言，我仍会维持对国际资产的超配，因为我觉得美国人对本国股票的配置普遍过高。
Some of these things are a bit less attractive today, but in general, I would be I would maintain this overweight on international assets also because in general, I think Americans are just excessively overweight.
他们过度集中于国内股票。
They're domestic stocks.
比如你看看普通的目标日期基金，或者像先锋或贝莱德这样的基金。
Like you look your your average target date from portfolio or like your your your vanguards or your BlackRock funds.
我的意思是，实际上你的投资组合中80%是股票，而这80%的股票里又有80%是美国股票。
I mean, really just on like, you know, 80% equities and within these 80% equities, it's it's 80% US stocks.
而在这些美国股票中，有一半集中在那七家最大的公司。
And within this US stocks leave, it's 50% of it is in the max seven.
所以，显然这个世界远不止这七家公司那么大。
So it's it just seems that there is a bigger world out there than just these these seven stocks.
我认为，对任何投资组合来说，最大的风险始终是过度集中于美国市场。
And the biggest risk to anybody's portfolio, I think, is is from its always exposure.
分散风险的一种方式是，如果你去年买了中国互联网股票的话。
And one way to diversify it is to own if you had bought Chinese Internet stocks last year.
我的意思是，那些股票表现相当不错。
I mean, that's that has done pretty well.
巴西的矿业公司表现非常好。
Brazilian ore miners have done really well.
秘鲁的黄金矿业公司表现极为出色。
Peruvian gold miners have done fantastically well.
欧洲银行的表现非常出色。
European banks have been amazing.
我一直在继续往下看这个清单。
And I keep and keep going down the list.
我觉得我们有一种倾向，过于痴迷于这七只股票，而实际上，如今全球的资金流动要复杂得多。
Like, I think we have this this tendency to really be obsessed with with seven stocks when the world is is a much more precise now in terms of flows.
是的，我确实觉得美国市场被卖得过头了，但确实存在一种‘做空美国’的交易思路，对吧？当特朗普在四月实施关税时，这种情况根本没发生。
Yeah, I I'm I'm I'm sell America is a bit too too much, but there's this idea of the sell America trade, right, when Trump did the tariffs in April and that has not happened at all.
如果你看看美联储的资金流动数据，会发现外国投资者在过去一年里购买了2万亿美元的美国股票。
If you look at the the Fed's one, the flows of funds, you see that foreign has actually bought 2,000,000,000,000 in U.
美国。
S.
过去一年里，外国投资者购买了2万亿美元的美国股票。
Stocks in the past year.
可能发生的情况是，他们开始对美元进行对冲。
What may have happened is that they started hedging the dollar.
是的。
Yeah.
所以这有点像是，你知道的，讨厌货币但喜欢股票，因为如果你在欧洲，你没有，你知道的，AI相关标的。
So this is kind of a, you know, oh, hate the currency, but I love the stock because, yes, if you're in Europe, you don't have, you know, AI plays.
欧洲根本没有像样的科技板块。
And so there's no tech sector to speak of in Europe.
所以我认为这是这一交易的第一阶段。
So I think that was the phase one of that trade.
我担心的是，你知道的，随着绿色狂热和试图控制加拿大之类的举动。
I worry that, you know, with the the green man insanity and let's take over Canada stuff.
现在我们进入第二阶段，不仅对冲货币，欧洲、加拿大、澳大利亚、拉美养老基金——很多都是我们的客户——开始把美国视为风险来源，并在我们把资金回流到欧洲和日本时，逐步降低投资组合风险。
And now we move to phase two where it's not just the currency that we hedge but European, Canadian, Australian, Latin American pension funds, I mean many of them, our clients are starting to look at The U.
S.
S.
作为风险来源，并在我们把资金回流到欧洲和日本时，逐步降低投资组合风险。
As a source of risk and start to to de risk the portfolio as we bring money back in Europe, in Japan.
我的意思是，日本的收益率确实达到了数代人以来的最高水平。
I mean, Japan, we certainly have yields at multigenerational highs.
这确实迫使人们采取行动。
That really forces itself.
对吧？
Right?
你把资金撤回，就会给货币带来上行压力，这意味着以日元计价的标普500回报率，或以欧元计价的标普500回报率，实际上会变成负的。
You bring the money back, then puts upward pressure on the currency means that your yen return on the S and P 500 or the euro return of the S and P 500 are are really negative.
而将这些资本回流，尤其是在欧洲——在许多情况下，你们已经投资了二十年——会推动增长。
And then bringing this capital back, especially in Europe, where in many cases you have invested for twenty years, boost growth.
因此，你形成了一个自我实现的良性循环：货币、增长和资产回报全都朝着同一方向变动。
So you have this kind of self fulfilling virtuous cycle where currencies growth and asset returns all move in the same direction.
这基本上与我们刚刚经历的十五年美国资产跑赢的周期完全相反。
Basically, that would be the exact opposite of the fifteen year cycle of US outperformance we're coming from.
是的。
Yeah.
那么最后，大宗商品和贵金属在这个框架中扮演什么角色？
And then and then lastly, how does commodities and precious metals fit into that framework?
因为当我听到你对这场大规模经济加速的看法时，虽然软数据还没体现出来，但周期性大宗商品和贵金属却表现强劲。
Because when I when I hear your thoughts about this big economic reacceleration and that it's not showing up in in the soft, data, but it's showing up in cyclical commodities and and precious metals have been ripping.
也就是说，当前的价格走势提供了很多验证。
Like, there is a lot of validation in the price action going on right now.
我只是好奇，你是怎么看待这一点的？
And I'm just curious, how do you how do you take that?
哦，我们有一套非常棒的操作策略。
Oh, we we we've great great playbook.
这一年表现不错。
It's been a it's been a good year.
顺便说一句，至少在白银方面，它的表现超出了我的预期。
For for what it's worth, it over I mean, certainly in the case, silver exceeded my expectation.
我记得差不多十年前，我以15美元左右的价格买入了实物白银，当时想着再也不卖了。
I remember buying a physical silver almost ten years ago at around 15 thinking I'd I'd never sell it.
对吧？
Right?
这本来是我打算留给孩子的，结果我最后还是卖了。
This is something I I thought I would give my kids, And I actually ended up selling it.
这可能是我一生中唯一一次
And this probably was the the only one time in my life where I
我卖在了最高点。
I sold the top.
精准无比。
Nailed it.
就一次。
Like, one.
但顺便说一下，问题是
But by the way, the problem
这也让我意识到，如果比特币、黄金或白银的信徒们是对的，那这个世界将会多么糟糕。
it also made me realize how crappy, you know, like, if if the the the Bitcoin or gold bugs or silver bug people are right, what a crappy world this is going to be.
这真的让我不得不以低于现货价20%的折扣寄出这件东西。
This is really I mean, I had to sell a 20% discount to the spot price to mail the thing.
我还在等付款。
I'm still waiting to be paid.
这个家伙，我希望我们能有更好的方式来结算交易，而不是交换金属，因为这根本不是什么愉快的体验。
This guy like, it I I hope we can have a better way to settle transaction than exchanging, you know, metals because it's it's not it's not a very pleasant experience.
再说一次，我原本根本没打算卖它，但价格涨得太疯狂了，我觉得卖了很合理。
Again, my my idea was that I would never sell it, but the price was so insane that that I thought it was it made sense.
从长远来看，我们讨论的所有事情都支持大幅配置你选择的资产，对吧？
Now, long term, everything that we talk about I think supports a large allocation to pick your poison, right?
我的意思是，黄金，我通常更偏好黄金，当然还有白银、铂金，最近铜的表现也很抢眼。
I mean a gold, I tend to have a preference for gold, you know, obviously silver, platinum, copper has been participating a lot lately.
加密货币在我们度过这段波动和周期性担忧之后，可能会变得极其有趣。
Cryptocurrency could be extraordinarily interesting once we kind of walk through this this volatility and for your cycle fears.
但确实，这么做是合理的。
But yeah, it would make sense.
再次，我希望加密货币和贵金属都能成为一种过渡性解决方案。
Again, I hope both crypto and precious metal I think are transition solution.
它们并不完美。
They're not great.
这显然不是最优的解决方案。
Like this is not an optimal solution.
总有一天，我们应该能找到更好的方法来解决贸易平衡问题。
At some point, we should be able to figure out a better way to solve trading balances.
我喜欢这个马阿拉歌协议的想法。
I like the idea of this Mar A Lago Accord.
我的意思是，我们显然一直没能把它落实，但一旦危机加剧，一旦我们正确地重置了价格，我们确实面临着这样的全球失衡问题。
I mean, obviously we're never able to put it together, but once the crisis is growing up, once we've reset prices correctly, I mean, we have we do have these global imbalances like that.
是的。
Yeah.
人民币汇率太低，这让世界其他地区的生活变得非常艰难。
The Chinese currency is too cheap and that's making life in the rest of the world very difficult.
它正在摧毁欧洲的工业。
It's destroying European industry.
它导致了美国的巨大赤字。
It's causing this this massive deficit in The US.
所以我们需要某种全球结算机制，就未来如何行事达成一致。
So we need some sort of the global settlement where we agree on how we're gonna do things going forward.
我认为这会在2030年代中期发生。
I I hold that would happen, you know, probably in the mid two thousand thirties.
但在那之前，直到我们拥有一个高效健全的货币体系，这些不完美的替代品仍将存在，我认为它们应纳入投资者的投资组合。
But in the meantime, until we have a proper efficient monetary system and then you'll have these imperfect substitutes and I think they belong in investors portfolio.
而且不可能说，它是否被高估了？
And it's impossible to say, you know, is it overvalued?
它是否被低估了？
Is it undervalued?
是的。
Yes.
我的意思是，我看看黄金的走势图，真的很担心。
I mean, I look at it, you know, chart of gold and I'm worried.
但话说回来，它的合理市盈率应该是多少呢？
But, you know, what's what's the proper multiple on it?
我的意思是，黄金没有收益，也没有现金流。
I mean, there is no earnings, there's no cash flow.
所以它可能还会继续上涨。
So it can it can keep going higher.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
你就是永远说不准。
You just never know.
另外，文森特，很高兴你总是来参加。
Also, Vincent, always great to have you on.
这些更新很棒，再次祝贺你在能源等领域做出的出色判断。
Great updates there and congrats again on some of those excellent calls on energy and all of that.
那么，人们如果想了解你的工作并联系你，该去哪里呢？
And yeah, where can folks go if they want to see your work and get in contact with you?
最好的地方是X。
So the best place is X.
我的用户名是vincandeluard，d-e-l-u-a-r-d。
My handle is vincandeluard, d e l u a r d.
你也可以在LinkedIn上找到我，vincandeluard。
You can also find me on LinkedIn, vincandeluard.
请给我发私信。
Please send me a DM me.
你甚至可以，呃，我马上把我的Stonix邮箱给你，VincentDeluard@Stonix.com。
You may even, I mean I'm going get my Stonix email right VincentDeluard@Stonix.com.
这可能是最好的方式。
That's probably the best way.
现在的研究是机构性的，但我总是很乐意与聪明的人交流，分享我每周撰写的部分报告。
Now the research is institutional, but I'm always happy to, you know, have conversation with smart people, share some of the reports I write every week.
是的，我感到非常兴奋。
And yeah, I'm excited.
这既是令人恐惧又是令人兴奋的时刻，对于全球宏观领域而言。
Like this is this is both scary and exciting time for for global macro.
我认为明年又会是充满话题的一年，等我们十个月后再交谈时，会有非常多内容可聊。
And I think this is going to be another year where, you know, we'll have a lot to talk about in ten months when we speak again.
我同意。
I agree.
对。
Yeah.
在总结回顾方面，我们最近称之为全球宏观的‘世界大赛’。
On the on the roundup, we've been calling it the the world series of global macro these days.
因为现在有太多事情正在发生。
It's just there's so much happening.
太棒了。
Awesome.
谢谢，文森特。
Thanks, Vincent.
一切顺利。
All the best.
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